Prospects1500.com is the most courageous prospect ranking shop out there, releasing top 50s every year when most other shop puts out lists with no more than 30 names.
We often talk about how prospects in the 20s are, for all intents and purposes, maxing out as lottery tickets or org guys, but Prospects1500 goes even further, ranking another 20 guys.
So, more to talk about.
First up, Here’s my master list of all Nats prospect rankings. This XLS has more than 200 pundit rankings of individual players in our system, dating back to 2004 believe it or not. Nearly 400 players have appeared on a prospect ranking list for our team in that period. This is one of the biggest resources i’ve managed to maintain and keep updated over the years, and it just keeps growing every time another prospect list is dropped. I find this xls fascinating if only for the discrepancies between shops in the way they rank players.
Back to Prospects1500: here’s their 2023 Top 50 list. Since this is not behind a paywall, I’ll post the full 50 here:
| rank | Last Name | First Name | Position | 2022 Starting Level | Draft/IFA signing Year | How Acquired? | Bonus if known |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wood | James | OF (Corner) | Low-A | 2021 2nd | Trade | 2600000 |
| 2 | Green | Elijah | OF (CF) | FCL | 2022 1st | Draft | 6500000 |
| 3 | Hassell III | Robert | OF (CF) | High-A | 2020 1st | Trade | 4300000 |
| 4 | Cavalli | Cade | RHP (Starter) | AAA | 2020 1st | Draft | 3027000 |
| 5 | House | Brady | SS/3B | Low-A | 2021 1st | Draft | 5000000 |
| 6 | Vaquero | Cristian | OF (CF) | XST | 2022 IFA | IFA | 4900000 |
| 7 | Susana | Jarlin | RHP (Starter) | FCL | 2022 IFA | Trade | 1700000 |
| 8 | Henry | Cole | RHP (Starter) | AA | 2020 2nd | Draft | 2000000 |
| 9 | De La Rosa | Jeremy | OF (Corner) | Low-A | 2018 IFA | IFA | 300000 |
| 10 | White | T.J. | OF (Corner) | Low-A | 2021 5th | Draft | 400000 |
| 11 | Cox | Brenner | OF (CF) | FCL | 2022 4th | Draft | 1000000 |
| 12 | Bennett | Jake | LHP (Starter) | FCL | 2022 2nd | Draft | 1734800 |
| 13 | Lara | Andry | RHP (Starter) | Low-A | 2019 IFA | IFA | 1250000 |
| 14 | Brzykcy | Zach | RHP (Reliever) | High-A | 2020 NDFA | NDFA | 20000 |
| 15 | Lipscomb | Trey | 3B | Low-A | 2022 3rd | Draft | 758500 |
| 16 | Cruz | Armando | SS | XST | 2021 IFA | IFA | 3900000 |
| 17 | Rutledge | Jackson | RHP (Starter) | Low-A | 2019 1st | Draft | 3450000 |
| 18 | Lile | Daylen | OF (CF) | XST (TJ) | 2021 2nd | Draft | 1750000 |
| 19 | Alu | Jake | 3B | AA | 2019 24th | Draft | 10000 |
| 20 | Quintana | Roismar | OF (CF) | XST | 2019 IFA | IFA | 820000 |
| 21 | McKenzie | Jared | OF (CF) | Low-A | 2022 5th | Draft | 410500 |
| 22 | Frizzell | Will | 1B | Low-A | 2021 8th | Draft | 179800 |
| 23 | Ferrer | Jose | LHP (Reliever) | Low-A | 2017 IFA | IFA | ? |
| 24 | Ramirez | Aldo | RHP (Starter) | XST (inj) | 2018 IFA | Trade | 450000 |
| 25 | Carrillo | Gerardo | RHP (Reliever) | AA | 2016 IFA | Trade | 75000 |
| 26 | Ward | Thad | RHP (Starter) | OO – AA | 2018 5th | Rule-5 | 275000 |
| 27 | Parker | Mitchell | LHP (Starter) | High-A | 2020 5th | Draft | 100000 |
| 28 | Boissiere | Branden | OF (Corner) | Low-A | 2021 3rd | Draft | 600000 |
| 29 | Theophile | Rodney | RHP (Starter) | Low-A | 2018 IFA | IFA | 10000 |
| 30 | Baker | Darren | 2B | High-A | 2021 10th | Draft | 146800 |
| 31 | Infante | Samuel | SS | Low-A | 2020 2nd | Draft | 1000000 |
| 32 | Pineda | Israel | C | High-A | 2016 IFA | IFA | 450000 |
| 33 | Cronin | Matt | LHP (Reliever) | AA | 2019 4th | Draft | 464500 |
| 34 | Downs | Jeter | 2B | OO – AAA | 2017 1st | Waivers | 1825000 |
| 35 | Irvin | Jake | RHP (Starter) | High-A | 2018 4th | Draft | 550000 |
| 36 | Antuna | Yasel | SS/OF (Corner) | High-A | 2016 IFA | IFA | 3900000 |
| 37 | Young | Jacob | OF (CF) | Low-A | 2021 7th | Draft | 275000 |
| 38 | Millas | Drew | C | XST (inj) | 2019 7th | Trade | 170000 |
| 39 | Shuman | Seth | RHP (Starter) | High-A | 2019 6th | Trade | 235000 |
| 40 | Cabrera | Manuel | SS | early | 2023 IFA | IFA | 550000 |
| 41 | Denaburg | Mason | RHP (Starter) | XST (TJ) | 2018 1st | Draft | 3000000 |
| 42 | Polanco | Bryan | RHP (Reliever) | DSL | 2021 IFA | IFA | ? |
| 43 | Emiliani | Leandro | 1B | Low-A | 2017 IFA | IFA | ? |
| 44 | Troop | Alex | RHP (Reliever) | AA | 2017 9th | Draft | 185000 |
| 45 | Mendoza | Drew | 3B | High-A | 2019 3rd | Draft | 800000 |
| 46 | Marte | Daniel | OF (CF) | FCL | 2018 IFA | IFA | 300000 |
| 47 | Arruda | J.T. | SS | Low-A | 2019 11th | Draft | 250000 |
| 48 | Acevedo | Andy | OF | early | 2023 IFA | IFA | 1300000 |
| 49 | Solano | Edwin | SS | early | 2023 IFA | IFA | 1300000 |
| 50 | Soto | Elian | OF/SS | early | 2023 IFA | IFA | 425000 |
Here’s my reaction to the list, going down the rankings from #1 to #50.
- This analysis includes more than just a ranking of 50 players; author Caleb Sanders also breaks the players down into tiers, includes some video, etc. He defines the Tiers as you’d expect; the top tier are expected to basically be All Stars (Wood and Green), the 2nd tier to be “solid MLB contributors” (Hassell, Cavalli, House, Vaquero), Tier 3s to have a reasonable expectation of making the Majors (every one ranked from 7 to 20).
- So, with all due respect, it is way, way too early to be putting those kind of expectations specifically on Vaquero in particular. The Cuban showed very little in the DSL in 2022 based on the size of his signing bonus, his pedigree, his origins (Cuba), and the fact that he was 17 turning 18 at the end of the season in a league filled with younger players. I don’t have a problem ranking him where they do (6-7 range, right in line with everyone else), but claiming he’s got a high probability of making the majors right now seems to entirely be based on is signing bonus of $4.9M. Call me when Armando Cruz ($3.9M) or Yasel Antuna ($3.9M) pans out.
- No quibbling with their top 6-7 players; same 6-7 that everyone else has.
- Cole Henry at #8. This is aspirational; if he’s healthy he’s probably top 5. Right now its a coin flip if he pitches at the same level again, maybe worse odds than that. I’d have him in the teens.
- Huge bump up for TJ White, who comes in at #10 when other major shops had him in the deep 20s in their 2022 lists. We’ll see if other pundits agree when the “big” lists from MLB, BA, Klaw, and Fangraphs come out pre-2023.
- Brenner Cox at #11. I dunno. Something screams Jakson Reetz to me about Cox; a prep player who gets bought out of a D1 commitment and wasn’t really on anyone’s prep radar. I need to see some production before buying in.
- Love for Covid NDFA Zach Brzycky (scrabble score for his last name? 30 points!) at #14. That’s great; BA’s mid-season 2023 list didn’t even have him in their top 30. I thought he was crazy for signing for the pittance that he did after the 5 round Covid draft and I hope the team takes care of him.
- Jackson Rutledge comes in at #17, which at least is a reasonable ranking for him as compared to fools who keep putting him in their top 10. But hey, now he’s on the 40man so i’m sure we’ll see him in the majors soon, even if he has an 8 ERA in High-A in June.
- Jake Alu, given the #19 spot. He hasn’t seen a prospect ranking since Fangraphs’ August ranking. Alu is an excellent example of the difficulties of ranking prospects. He hit well in AAA but features as a low-ceiling MLB utility player; how do you rank that as a prospect evaluation? Is Alu a better or worse prospect than some 17yr old DSL kid who is 6 years and 5 levels away from where Alu is right now but has a higher theoretically “ceiling?” Either way, bravo to Alu and I hope he fares well in 2023.
- First time we’ve seen Will Frizzell on any prospect list after his 2021 drafting. I mean, lets be honest, this dude is big (6’5″ 225) and destroyed Low-A pitching this year (.377/.426/.696). I suppose you’d expect that out of an SEC middle-of-the-order bat. He needs to get to higher levels and see if he can blast his way up. He’s positionally limited (1B/DH)
- Aldo Ramirez getting dinged down a bit, as he should be given his injuries. He sits #24 here.
- Gerardo Carrillo all the way down at #25. I’m liking this pundit; he’s not afraid to ding down players who don’t perform. What has Carrillo done at this point to have anyone think he has a shot of making the majors?
- Newly acquired waiver claim Thad Ward comes in at #26. Sure. whatever.
- #27 Mitchell Parker should be higher. All he’s done at every level is perform. Right now, who would you rather have on the mound in a must-win game, Parker at #27 or Rutledge at #17? How about Parker or Bennett at #12?
- First time ranking ever for Rodney Theophile, coming in way down at #29 but giving some props for the $10k IFA signing who cleaned up in Low-A this year.
- Another waiver claim in Jeter Downs sits at #34. sure, whatever.
- It’s not going to be worthwhile to quibble too much about anyone ranked below #30. I will point out players who I think are too low, and then players who are missing at this point
- Jake Irvin is higher than #35. I don’t get this ranking. I mean, the dude posted respectable numbers in AA and was put on the 40-man. Who’d you rather have, Irvin (#35) or Andry Lara at #13?
- Yasel Antuna, ranked at #36. Where he should be. This is your reminder that the idiots at Baseball America ranked him #7 a month ago.
- Four of our new IFA signings from a week ago are here: Manuel Cabrera, Andy Acevedo, Edwin Solano, and based on his last name apparently, Elian Soto. I find it somewhat interesting that Cabrera was the best ranked prospect of these players, but got a bonus that was a third of what Acevedo and Solano got.
Believe it or not, after 50 players, there’s some players who are missing from this list who I probably would have found room for.
- Would you have put Evan Lee in here somewhere? I mean, he was in the majors last year. Now he’s not even worth ranking above a bunch of 16yr olds we just signed? He’s hurt, not dead.
- Jackson Cluff hangs around as a defensive specialist; worth mentioning? There’s other plus-defenders out there who could turn things around with the bat: Jordy Barly, Donovan Casey, etc.
- I guess we’ve completely given up on Tim Cate at this point. Drew Mendoza is still worth ranking but not Cate.
- Tres Barrera: nowhere in the top 50.
All in all, a solid list.
Tres Barrera exceeded the rookie threshold for PAs around last August, though in my mind there ought to be an automatic DQ around age 26. There are only so many Rich Amarals out there.
Luke Erickson
22 Jan 23 at 6:19 am
Tres Barrera is no longer with the Nats, he just signed somewhere else.
Since Todd stepped on my post, Baseball Prospectis just ranked James Wood as the #3 prospect in all the minors.
Mark L
22 Jan 23 at 11:10 am
Barrera: that’s my bad. I forgot he was a FA.
Todd Boss
22 Jan 23 at 8:49 pm
It turns out Barrera signed with the Cards.
As usual I disagree with a lot of the rankings but give them credit with a Top 50.
I hope Cole Henry earns that #8 ranking but there is an equal chance his career is over.
Mark L
23 Jan 23 at 10:03 am
No love for Pablo Aldonis? Just the fact he’s a lefty ought to put him up there 😉
Vladi Hondo
24 Jan 23 at 12:06 pm
Interesting and credible list. I share a lot of Todd’s reservations about the really young guys who haven’t done anything yet, though, including Vaquero, Cruz, and Cox. The Cox drafting/signing reminds me of Infante, which so far hasn’t worked out at all, overdrafting and overpaying for a guy well down the list for most other teams. There’s no doubt he has tools, though.
My figures are crossed on Green, but there’s still huge risk on his high ceiling.
I want to talk about Wood. I’ll start by saying that I’m a fan, ranked him #1 on my bats list for Luke’s site. That said, I’m really scratching my head at how he has rocketed up prospect lists. He’s #3 in all of minors for Baseball Prospectus, #9 for FanGraphs, and #11 for Baseball America (#1 corner OF for them). Wow. Really? We all hope so, but really? At the time of the trade, when Wood had already done his most significant damage of the summer, every post-trade evaluation article had Hassell as a more significant prospect than Wood. Everything is 180 on that now.
Wood will be in his age-20 season (turns 21 in Sept.) and presumably starting at the A+ level. He’s a massive human, and some of his prospect value is tied to him being able to stay in the OF, particularly RF, instead of ending up 1B/DH. His numbers in 2022 were very good but not off the charts, particularly considering that he played two-thirds of his season at elevation in the Cal League, a notoriously good hitters’ league. He also benefited from unsustainable .387 BABIP there and .400 BABIP at Fburg after the trade.
The most concerning stat with Wood is that — in an admittedly small sample size — he struck out 28% of the time in 21 games at Fburg. That number was a much better 17.8% earlier in the year at Lake Elsinore. (Of course you could add the two percentages together and still not get Green’s whiff rate in FLA.) Soooo . . . the biggest think to watch with Wood this summer is K%. He already uses the whole field well, so his doubles numbers may continue to be well ahead of homers at this stage, but we’ll see.
If Wood puts up similar numbers and can progress A+/AA at age 20, then he will indeed be one of the top prospects in baseball. But he hasn’t actually done it yet. Let’s hope he can.
KW
25 Jan 23 at 2:39 pm
Other than Yadiel launching 33 homers in the thin PCL air in 2019, I don’t think there has been a Nat farmhand to to 30 nearer sea level since Tyler Moore did it back to back in 2010-11. Of course Moore’s subsequent MLB career shows that accomplishment isn’t a great indicator of what’s to come. Still, it would be exciting to see.
If healthy, it would seem that Wood, House, and Green supposedly have the power grade to push 30. Some might put White in that mix as well, if he makes more consistent contact.
I will say that even though I’ve been one of the initial and consistent members of White’s fan club, I’m surprised by his leap up so many prospect lists. Only a .258 BA, 27.2% K rate, 118 wRC+. A force multiplier for him is age, though, as that was only his age-18 season, will be at A+ at age 19. So he’s actually ahead of Wood on the age developmental timeline, albeit not as productive yet.
KW
25 Jan 23 at 2:52 pm
Wood “only” #17 on the new MLB.com list, their #5 OF prospect. Here is a link to his updated profile/scouting report:
https://www.mlb.com/prospects/top100/james-wood-695578
KW
27 Jan 23 at 9:19 am