Nationals Arm Race

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/reversestandings

Your Arizona Diamondbacks!   Here’s next year’s top 10 (click on the above link for the full first round; the Nats will pick 30th out of 31 picks next year if we keep the pick).

(Another more complete post on this topic from MinorLeagueBall, including all the comp picks, bonus allocations and whatnot.)

Houston retains the #2 overall pick after failing to sign last year’s #1 Brady Aiken.  Teams that tied in records are given priority based on last year’s W/L record, meaning that Houston picks before Minnesota, the White Sox before the Cubs and Phillies, etc.   Houston, for their prolonged incompetence, gets the 2nd and 5th pick next year, and I’m sure they’ll figure out a way to out-smart themselves and screw it up again.  And that’s if they even keep the picks: 5th rounder Jacob Nix had his deal axed when Aiken’s deal went south, thanks to the ridiculous new signing bonus rules.  Nix has filed a grievance and if the Astros are forced to honor his deal, they’ll lose one or both of these picks (and maybe more).

The Diamondbacks with their fresh and completely inexperienced General Manager Dave Stewart now have the honor of selecting one from quite a few interesting candidates for #1 overall right now.  Aiken presumably will pitch a year at JuCo and be a completely legitimate shot to go 1-1 again (assuming he doesn’t get hurt).  But he’ll also be looking for significant money.  Duke’s Michael Matuella (who is a local kid, hailing from Great Falls and who attended Georgetown Prep) has been shooting up boards.  A couple of other prep players are considered upper first round talent (Brendan Rodgers in Florida, Mike Nikorak in Pennsylvania, Kolby Allard in California).  And, with a rising class of college juniors we have more than a few big-time college guys who may push Aiken down off the top spot.  Namely, Walker Buehler from Vanderbilt, Phil Bickford (late of Cal State Fullerton) or maybe even the likes of Kyle Funkhouser (Louisville) or Carson Fuller (Vanderbilt).  In fact, Vanderbilt may be like UCLA was a few years back, with two starters selected in the top of the first round.  And like always, some one may come out of nowhere to claim the 1-1 spot with an under-slot deal, much like the Astros did in 2012.

The top 10 for next year is rounded out by four of the wealthiest clubs in the game (Boston, both Chicago teams and Philadelphia).  Which also means that along with Texas, half the teams who finished in the bottom 10 this year were among the highest spenders in terms of payroll in 2014.  You can’t fault Texas necessarily, but you can certainly continue to mock Philadelphia.  How does Frank Wren get fired but Ruben Amaro keeps his job?

Vanderbilt’s ace Fuller helped Vanderbilt win the deciding game 3 in the CWS. Photo unk via anchorofgold.com

Congrats to #13 seed Vanderbilt, your 2014 College World Series champ (following UCLA, who won the 2013 CWS as covered here last year).  This is our final College post of the year.

Here’s a review of our CWS coverage for 2014:

• We started with the Field of 64 announcement in late May
• Here’s a review of the sixteen regional tournaments.
• Then we recapped the super Regionals as the CWS field in Omaha was set.
• Lastly we reviewed the group play in the CWS itself prior to the final being set.

Here’s how the CWS final played out:

• In Game One on 6/23/14, UVA’s All-American starter Nathan Kirby blew up in the third inning, walking in three runs en route to a NINE run inning, which held up for Vanderbilt as they won 9-8.  Kirby said that he just lost his release point, leading to a pretty uncharacteristic outing.  This is not good news for UVA, who thought for sure they’d win a matchup of their #1 All-American versus Vanderbilt’s 3rd starter Walker Buehler.  Sure enough, UVA got to Buehler for 2 runs in the first and 5 runs before knocking him out, but they just couldn’t overcome the large deficit.   Buehler’s no slouch; the sophomore went 12-2 on the season and throws an easy 95 and likely is a top draft pick next year, so it isn’t as if UVA faced the scrubs.  But their work is cut out for them now.
• In Game two on 6/24/14, UVA got a bounce-back performance from #2 starter Brandon Waddell, who pitched a complete game giving up 2 runs on 5 hits to lead the Cavaliers to a 7-2 victory to force the deciding game.   Vanderbilt’s #2 starter, supplanted Ace and 2014 first rounder Tyler Beede pitched well for 5 innings, but got knocked around in the 7th to give up what turned out to be the go ahead runs and took the loss.  UVA continued to show why Baseball America pundits thought they were the “most complete” team in the college post season, coming at teams with both superior pitching AND superior hitting.
• In the deciding Game 3 on 6/25/14, UVA’s Josh Sborz (of McLean HS, where he had a stellar prep career and collected every available “player of the year” award his senior year) faced off against Vanderbilt’s ace Carson Fuller, going on short rest after pitching the play-in game for Vanderbilt just 4 days ago.  Sborz was wild early and got yanked in the first, leaving mid-week starter Artie Lewicki with the ball.  All Lewicki did was throw 6 innings of 4 hit ball, giving up one unearned run (Lewikie didn’t give up an earned run in 23 IP this CWS; wow).  UVA got the ball into their closer’s hand in a tie ball game in the 8th (first rounder Nick Howard) and he gave up an unlikely homer (just the third of the entire CWS) to prove to be the game winner for Vanderbilt 3-2.  UVA loaded the bases in the 8th but couldn’t push a run across against Vandy’s bullpen, and they closed it out.  Heartbreak for UVA, who may not have a better combination of hitting (6 hitters drafted) and pitching (led by an All-American sophomore) for quite a while.

Congrats to Vanderbilt for coming out on top.

Resources:

• d1baseball.com is the best source for anyone following the game.
• NCAA Baseball stats for individual and team stats (though its hard to find the team stats)

Here’s a look at our CWS coverage so far in 2014:

• We started with the Field of 64 announcement in late May
• Here’s a review of the sixteen regional tournaments.
• Then we recapped the super Regionals as the CWS field in Omaha was set.

Now lets review the group play in Omaha.  Compared to the blitz of games during regionals (100+ games in four days) and super-regionals (where there were nearly 40 games in a long weekend), covering the CWS is pedestrian; there’s just a couple of games a day for nearly two weeks.

My pre-CWS predictions are with Vanderbilt from the top and UVA from the bottom, but UVA’s path through to the CWS finals is a lot tougher.  Lets see how things played out.

In the Top Bracket (UC Irvine, Vanderbilt, Louisville, and Texas):

UC Irvine continued their surprising run this post-season by getting 3 runs late on Texas’ starter Nathan Thornhill and taking the first game 3-1.  Meanwhile, Vanderbilt got to wild Louisville starter Kyle Funkhowser behind their flame-throwing converted closer Carson Fulmer and took their first game 5-3. 

In the first elimination game, Texas handed Louisville’s Anthony Kidston his first loss of the year and put the Cardinals 2-and-out 4-1.  In the winner’s bracket game, UC Irvine tagged Vanderbilt’s stud Tyler Beede for four runs early and knocked him out in the 4th, but Walker Buehler relieved and threw 5+ innings of no-hit ball as Vanderbilt’s offense stormed back to take the winner’s bracket game 6-4.  This sets up Vanderbilt nicely for the rest of the tournament and confirms them as the early favorite to advance to the final.  In an elimination game, Texas got a solo homer from C.J. Hinojosa and 8+ shutout innings from middle-reliever Chad Hollingsworth to eliminate UC Irvine 1-0 in a matchup of two of the games most tenured and respected coaches Augie Garido and Mike Gillespie, with nearly 3,000 combined wins between them.  Texas must now beat Vanderbilt twice over the 6/20/14 weekend to advance to the CWS final.  Texas did their part in the first game, knocking Vanderbilt’s starter out before the first inning was complete and winning 4-0 to force a doe-or-die 6/21/14 game.  In that do-or-die game, Vanderbilt outlasted Texas with a walk-off infield single in the bottom of the 10th to advance 4-3.

In the Bottom Bracket (Texas Tech,Virginia, Ole Miss and TCU):

TCU saved their #1 starter and got by Texas Tech 3-2 in the opener, scoring 2 runs in the bottom of the 8th after not being able to touch TTU starter Chris Sadberry.  Texas Tech’s coach is probably kicking himself right now; Sadberry had given up just 3 hits through 7 innings and sat on 101 pitches; his reliever immediately coughed up the game.  Meanwhile, UVA’s Nathan Kirby pitched a gem in their opener, holding Ole Miss to just one hit over 7 innings and supp-1st rounder Mike Papi drove in the walk-off run as UVA won 2-1.  UVA’s work is cut out for them though, having to face first rounder Brandon Finnegan in the winner’s bracket game.  In that marquee TCU-UVA matchup, UVA couldn’t do much against Finnegan (8ip, 1 ER) but their own co-ace Brandon Waddell also held the Horned Frogs in check (7ip, 1ER).  The game went into extras .. many extra innings, finally won by UVA in the 15th 3-2 (tying the longest CWS game ever).  UVA’s closer Nick Howard threw 4 innings and 60 pitches, which makes me wonder if we’ll be hearing complaints about his usage (perhaps not; he was a starter his first two years at UVA).  Then, In the loser’s bracket, Ole Miss put Texas Tech out in a close 2-1 game, then similarly eliminated TCU 6-4.  Ole Miss must now beat UVA twice over the 6/20/14 weekend to advance to the CWS final.  And they couldn’t do it: behind 8 innings from their #3 and #4 starters (Josh Sborz and Artie Lewicki UVA topped Ole Miss 4-1 to advance to the CWS finals.

CWS finals: #13 Vanderbilt versus #3 UVA.

Game 1 on June 23rd, Game 2 on June 24th and (if necessary) Game 3 on June 25th.

Kirby versus Beede in game 1; Kirby sits on 8 days of rest after throwing just 85 pitches on June 15th.  Vanderbilt burned their ace Fulmer in the bracket final, leaving Vanderbilt at a definite disadvantage in the pitching matchup.  In game 2, UVA has Waddell set to go with 6 days rest while Vanderbilt has to go with their #3.  Sborz/Lewicki could tandem pitch a deciding game 3 for UVA with four full days rest if neither guy is used in the first two games, while Vanderbilt could bring back Fulmer on 3 days rest (to the likely ire of pitch count scouts, despite the fact that he only threw 90 pitches on 6/21).  UVA’s pitching is setup just about as good as you could hope for and have the bats to match; you have to think they’re the favorites.

Resources: d1baseball.com has all the CWS results in easy-to-consume fashion.  Their live scoreboard is great and is up-to-the-minute all throughout the weekend with links to the ESPN box scores.  Collegesplits.com has a ton of great data on college players.  And the Washington Post is providing great coverage of UVA’s trek through the college playoffs.