A.J. Cole is having a rebound 2013 for sure. Photo: AP Stock
Here’s this month’s Minor League Rotation Review post. Here’s April 2013, May 2013, and June 2013‘s posts for history.
For each level, I’ll put out the rotation members, their “letter grades” per start for this month only, and then throw in a quick link to show their seasonal stats for context. For each team there are 3 distinct groups of starters: the top group of 5-6 Starters per level is the “current rotation” as best as I can figure it, then the next section of pitchers are swing-men or spot-starters or guys who had “2nd start” or longer outings worthy of grading, followed by a 3rd group of guys who are generally no longer with the team (either by D/L, promotion, demotion or release). I’ve only listed the third category if something transactionally has happened to the player this particular month.
All stats mentioned (ERAs, Whips, K/9 rates, etc) are as of 8/1/13 and may have slightly changed by the time of this posting.
AAA Rotation: click here for Syracuse Milb.com stats
- Maya: B+,D,D-,A-,B+,A
- Tatusko: D,A,B,C+,B,B
- Rosenbaum: B,C-,A,D,D
- Roark: B+,C+,C-,A-,A
- Clay: A,A,D+/inc (rain),B,C
- Mandel: D->back to bullpen
- Robertson: F
Discussion: Syracuse has had the most stable rotation of the whole system. Which is ironic because (if I’m interpreting their service time correctly) 4/5ths of this rotation are minor league free agents this coming off season. Only Danny Rosenbaum is tied to the organization past this year, having already “survived” one rule-5 draft, but I think we can read the tea-leaves in terms of his future with the organization. The bright side of this turnover will be the rightful promotion and challenging of several AA pitchers right now, to start grooming the true MLB injury replacements that we just did not have in-house this year (with apologies to Chris Young who really did not work out and Ross Ohlendorf, who has but in a non-starting role thus far).
Yunesky Maya has shown signs of life lately, putting up a few good performances in the latter part of the month. Tanner Roark seems like he could be a useful swing-man on the MLB roster if called into action; he’s performed ably since returning to the rotation. Caleb Clay continues to impress; how did he not success in Boston’s organization?
In the bullpen, Xavier Cedeno has excelled since his waiver claim from Houston but suffered from bad timing and bad luck; the two loogies called up (Abad and Krol) have both excelled. Cedeno is likely another 6-year MLFA heading elsewhere this coming off-season. (Note: Cedeno has just been called up to cover for Ohlendorf’s “dead arm” D/L trip).
AA: click here for Harrisburg Milb.com stats
- Karns: A,A (inc),A,A,B-,B-
- Gilliam: A-,A+,D+,B,B,C-
- Cole: A+,A
- Ray: B+,A++,D,D,B-
- Hill: A,B,A-,B,B,D+
- Herron: D
- Swynenberg: A-
- Grace: B
- Demny: -> D/L, to bullpen, demoted
- Treinen: D->d/l,C+,B+ -> D/L
Discussion: Harrisburg’s rotation is now down to just one of the 5 guys who opened the year there; Nathan Karns has recovered from his MLB stint and long layoff and is back to dominating; if it weren’t for the full-deck in AAA Karns may have been promoted by now. Blake Treinen (another original rotation guy) is on his second D/L stint of the month but has kept his numbers respectable. Robert Gilliam continues his up-and-down season, moving between stellar and sub-par starts (which is reflected in his 4.09 ERA in AA).
The next generation though seems upon us: A.J. Cole, Robbie Ray and Taylor Hill are all on the same path this year: succeeded in High-A, pushed to AA and are now succeeding there. Cole’s first two starts in Harrisburg could not have gone better, and Ray’s numbers are still good despite a couple of rough starts. Remember; both Ray and Cole were “really young” at the season’s onset for High-A; now they’re among the youngest guys in all of AA and still producing. This is great news going forward for this farm system, especially considering that another of the opening day Potomac starters (Taylor Jordan) is now effectively pitching in the majors. I know this is the Harrisburg section, but think about the success of Potomac’s original 5 this year.
High-A: click here for Potomac Milb.com stats
- Purke: A-,F-,C-,D-,D,B+
- Demny: D,D/inc (2 innings)
- Solis: A-,D,A-
- Schwartz: A,D,C-,B+,C+,B+
- Rauh C,A,D,B+,A,D/inc (2/3 inning)
- Fischer: A,B
- Holt: A
- Ray: -> promoted
- Pineyro: A -> traded
- Cole: D,B+/inc,A- -> promoted
- Frias: B,F -> bullpen -> released 7/24/13
Discussion: The churn in the Potomac rotation continues. They’ve not gotten starts from 15 different non-rehab assignment players. And they keep on chugging, holding an 8 game lead in the division on August 1st after winning the first half. Potomac’s two significant/important names of course are Matthew Purke and Sammy Solis. Purke has looked hittable in High-A, his ERA skewed by one really bad outing but still not as dominant as you’d like someone with his pedigree to be. Meanwhile Solis’ latest “return” seems to be going pretty well; he maintains a 2.65 ERA in Potomac while trying to build up arm strength. Blake Schwartz is now the longest tenured rotation member and has pitched excellently so far in 2013. He could be quite a find if he continues to develop (he was a 17th round pick who mostly pitched in Division II in college).
Meanwhile, Paul Demny‘s career faced a significant setback upon his demotion from Harrisburg. He now sits back in High-A, a level at which he pitched a full season in 2011. It may be time for Demny to try a conversion to relief, as it seems that he may be stalled as a starter. He had great K/9 rates as a starter; it seems he may make a very effective reliever.
Low-A: click here for Hagerstown Milb.com stats
- Turnbull: F,D,A,C-,A,D
- Encarnation: A+,C,A,D,A-,B+
- Mooneyham: B+,B-,D,B,A+
- Dickson: A,F,C+,B+
- Lee: A,B+,C-,B+,A-,B+
- RPena: B,B+
- Harper: | | | B,B+
- Meza: B
- Purke: -> promoted
- Anderson: -> d/l
Discussion: with Dixon Anderson‘s D/L trip, Pedro Encarnacion now becomes the senior statesman of Hagerstown. Both guys have pretty similar numbers; good ERAs (3.20-3.30) and good whips (1.17-1.19). Encarnaction continues his slow march up the farm system, having gotten further along than most every DSL graduate in recent years. Brett Mooneyham continues to dominate a league that he’s over-qualified for. Kylin Turnbull continues to get pounded in a league that he should be handling. Ian Dickson (who we got in trade for Henry Rodriguez) has done decently well since being added to the rotation; outside of one blow-up he’s given up just 4 runs in 20 innings over 5 starts. Not a bad return so far for a guy we were going to cut anyway (and who the Cubs took about 5 weeks to DFA themselves).
Short-A: click here for Auburn Milb.com stats
- Johansen: A,A,B+,B+,A
- Barrientos: D,C+,C- -> D/L,F
- Orlan: F-,B-,A,A,F
- DWilliams: B-,F,D,C-
- Voth: A,C+,B/inc (1ip),A-
- Ullmann: | | | F,B+
- Hollins: B,B+
- Bafidis: D+
- Medina: A-
- Selsor: B,D,D -> demoted to bullpen
- Hudgins: D+,A- -> retired !?
- Turnbull: C -> promoted
We’re seeing some big ERAs in Auburn so far. Robert Orlan; 5.19 ERA. Joel Barrientos: 4.66. Deion Williams: 9.42. Ugh. More interesting to me are the 2013 draftee performances thus far. 2nd rounder Jake Johansen has been good; sub 1.00 ERA, sub 1.00 whip and about a K an inning so far. He’s been a bit wild (28/14 K/BB ratio but has been consistently stingy when it comes to runs. 5th rounder Austin Voth has been sharp; 17/1 K/BB ratio in 14 innings so far in Short-A. Lastly Ryan Ullman, a 30th round pick has had up and down starts so far in his 13 short-A innings.
I remain baffled with Will Hudgins abrupt retirement; he had 12 innings of relatively decent relief in 2013 and then tweeted out his retirement. He hasn’t tweeted since, and when I mentioned it in the daily NationalsProspect.com post I didn’t get anyone who knew anything else. Hopefully the retirement was not injury or illness related.
GCL: click here for GCL-Nationals Stats on MiLB.com
- JRodriguez: F,A,A,B,B+
- Silvestre: C-,A,F,A
- Giolito: D/inc (only 1/3 inning),B,A-,D/inc (2/3 inings),D
- Suero: B,B+,A
- Valdez: A
- Ott: B,B,C
- DeRosier: B,B-
- KRodriguez: B,B+,B+,C+
- Pivetta: B-,B+,A
- Spezial: A
- Webb: A
- Voth: A -> promoted
- Ullmann: A,D+ -> promoted
It almost isn’t worth trying to grade out these GCL pitchers; most of the time they’re going 2-3 innings per “start” or per long relief stint. If you pitch 3 scoreless innings, is that an “A?” Lucas Giolito now has 6 “starts” but only a total of 12 combined innings thrown. DSL grads Wander Suero and Jefry Rodriguez have looked promising. Kelvin Rodriguez has good numbers in his combined mid-relief stints but relatively few strike outs (only 9 in 21 1/3 innings).