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2016 Season Statistical review of the 2012 Draft Class

Its Giolito and ... well that's about it. (Photo by John McDonnell / The Washington Post)

It (was) Giolito and … well that’s about it. (Photo by John McDonnell / The Washington Post)

Fifth in our set of Draft class Reviews for the 2016 season. First was the 2016 class, then the 2015 class then the 2014 class, then the 2013 class.

Web links to use while reading:

Stats are pulled from milb.com and/or fangraphs.com; put the player name into the search bar to get his seasonal stats
The 2016 MLB.com Draft Tracker (which I believe is the best draft tracker out there) is the best place to get draft class information.
The 2016 Bonus Tracker
The Big Board and the Draft Tracker are the goto resources for prospects for any Nats fan.
More obscure stats on players are sometimes found at places like thebaseballcube.com, perfectgame.org, their college websites, twitter accounts for the players, and good old fashioned deep-dive googling.
My historical list of Nats prospect rankings, updated for all 2016 mid-season rankings.

This review is especially important to follow because the high-school age draftees in this 2012 class are Rule-5 eligible this coming off-season. Not that there’s that many of them, but we’ll put a pin in this post when we eventually do Rule-5 Analysis later this month.

With out further ado…

Round 1: (#16 overall) Lucas Giolito HS RH Starting pitcher: 6.75 ERA in 21 1/3 MLB innings, 6-5 with a 2.97 ERA mostly in AA but with 7 starts in AAA. 116/44 K/BB in 115 1/3 minor league innings. I feel, much like the 2016 presidential election, that most of us are girded in our opinions on Giolito at this point. I think Giolito’s entire season was tainted by the stories of mechanical tweaks done by some ne’er-do-weller in Viera, and his results on the field showed. He struggled with command and hit-ability during his brief time with the MLB team, and his velocity was down from where we were “expecting” it to be. Its important to remember that he just turned 22, that he lost a significant amount of development time because of his TJ surgery, and that we should be patient. But he definitely has a “todo list” for 2017. I’m projecting that he starts in AAA until he proves that he can command his fastball. Matriculated to Majors. Post-writing update: Giolito headlined a trade for Adam Eaton, heading to the White Sox. On his way out the door, word was leaked to multiple reporters that the Nats had “soured” on Giolito, questioning his toughness and his ceiling. Luckily for Giolito, the White Sox pitching coach (Don Cooper) is quite well regarded, so if there’s someone out there that can “fix” whatever’s wrong with him, its Cooper. I’ve updated the summary for his departure, which significantly thins this draft class.

Round 2: (80) Tony Renda, Coll Jr 2B: Traded to the Yankees on 6/11/15 for David Carpenter. Renda then was included in the package that the Yankees sent to Cincinnati for Aroldis Chapman. For Cincinnati, Renda got 67 ABs this year and hit .183. Post-writing update: hat tip to commenter KW, Renda was outrighted to AAA earlier this month. He may have matriculated to the majors, but its safe to classify him as a AAA-ceiling player now.

Round 3: (111) Brett Mooneyham, Coll Jr LH starting pitcher: Released him on 6/3/15.

Round 4: (144) Brandon Miller Coll Sr Corner OF: Voluntarily retired on 7/10/15.

Round 5: (174) Spencer Kieboom, Coll Jr C: Slashed .230/.324/.314 in 309 ABs for AA Harrisburg. 61/43 K/BB in 94 games splitting time behind the dish, 5 homers, 0 SB. Kieboom didn’t have the best numbers hitting in AA; he’s known for his defense. He became the final nats 40-man call-up when Wilson Ramos tore his ACL and got exactly one MLB at-bat (and thus permanently qualifying him for the MLB health plan for the rest of his days). He’s a catcher on the 40-man roster; he’s going to play in 2017. The question is where; right now depending on whether the team acquires another catcher, Pedro Severino may get pushed back to AAA, which may very well keep Kieboom in AA starting. Only makes sense. But if the team decides to keep Severino up, then Kieboom moves up too. Trending steady. Post-writing update: the team went and acquired Derek Norris, which now pushes Kieboom to 4th out of 4 on the depth chart, almost guaranteeing that he’ll be in AA again (you can’t have both Severino and Kieboom splitting time in AAA; that makes no sense). I don’t think this necessarily changes his projection, since Jose Lobaton hits so poorly, but he does have to climb over Severino if he wants to matriculate permanently.

Round 6: (204) Hayden Jennings, HS OF/CF: Released in May 2014.

Round 7: (234) Robert Benincasa, Coll Jr. RH relief pitcher: 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA in 21 appearances and 30 relief innings for AA. 35/14 K/BB in 30 IP, 1.50 whip, 4.69 fip, .329 babip for AA. Benincasa threw a few outings in Potomac but we’re just focusing on AA numbers here. He repeated AA for the third successive season and had good K/9 numbers but not much else in support. I’m guessing he sticks around for one more season, likely in the AAA bullpen, and plays out the 6-year string before hitting MLFA after next season. Unless he runs into a numbers game; there’s likely at least three 40-man roster guys that will get pushed to the AAA bullpen, limiting jobs for org-arms like Benincasa. He could be a release candidate before the full season squads break next spring. Trending down.

Round 8: (264) Stephen Perez, Coll Jr. SS: Slashed .249/.351/.342 playing middle infield for Harrisburg. 59/47 K/BB in 301 ABs, 5 homers, 12SB. Perez was a Ben Zobrist-like player for AA, getting PT at all four infield positions plus left field. His slash figures were definitely an improvement over prior seasons, and may have stabilized his chances of moving up. All of the middle infielders for AAA this year are FAs (I believe) so there’s room for him to move up. I don’t view him as anything other than an org-guy though, and (like Benincasa above) seems likely to play out his contract and hit MLFA next season. Trending Steady.

Round 9: (294) Derek Self, Coll Sr. RH relief pitcher: 4-2 with a 4.10 ERA mostly with AA Harrisburg. 43/18 K/BB in 52 2/3 innings, 1.48 whip, 3.98 whip, .333 babip. Self started the year briefly in Potomac’s bullpen but quickly returned to AA, where he spent most of the year. He got a 9/1 call-up to fill a bullpen spot in AAA. He improved his ERA over last year’s AA session and continues to hang on despite his lack of draft pedigree. I don’t see that he’s earned a promotion to AAA, and with a potentially packed AAA bullpen he may be back in AA again or to be a release candidate at this point. He turns 27 in January; I think the team knows what they have with him by this point. Trending down.

Round 10: (324) Craig Manuel, Coll Sr C: Released 4/2/16 after (presumably) failing to win the backup catcher job at either Potomac or Harrisburg. Time ran out for the locak product (born in Rockville, MD).

Round 11: (354) Brian Rauh, Coll Jr RH starter/reliever: Missed the entire 2016 season due to injury. Borrowing from last year’s analysis, if he’s healthy expect him to contend for the AA rotation in 2017. If he’s not healthy, he’s a release candidate at this point. Trending down.

Round 12: (384) Carlos Lopez, Coll Sr 1B: Released on 6/30/15.

Round 13: (414) Elliott Waterman, Coll Jr LH reliever: Released on 3/15/14

Round 14: (444) Jordan Poole, Juco-2 corner OF: Released him on 3/14/14

Round 15: (474) Brandon Smith, OF: Didn’t sign. Attended Division II Grand Canyon University, where he played four years. He hit a robust .348/.402/.478 as a junior but wasn’t drafted, then slumped to hit just .233 his senior year. Again not drafted, might be done with baseball.

Round 16: (504) Ronald Pena, Juco-2 RH starter/reliever: threw just 8 innings for Low-A Hagerstown before hitting the D/L in late April; he got another few innings in GCL rehab sessions but it was a lost season for Pena. I’d say he’s a release candidate unless the team likes something they see, but he’s now thrown just 18 innings in two seasons and the two A-ball full season squads seem pretty full. Trending Down.

Round 17: (534) Blake Schwartz, Coll Sr RH Starting pitcher: Retired on 4/24/15.

Round 18: (564) David Fischer, Coll Sr RH reliever: Released on 7/3/14

Round 19: (594) Bryan Lippincott, Coll Sr 1B: Retired ahead of the 2014 season

Round 20: (624) James Brooks, Coll SR SS/3B: Released May 2013.

Round 21: (654) Austin Chubb, Coll Sr C: Released ahead of the 2015 season.

Round 22: (684) Will Hudgins, Coll Sr RH reliever: Suddenly retired 7/12/13 per his Twitter account.

Round 23: (714) Casey Selsor, Coll Sr LH Starter/Reliever: Released on 3/20/14.

Round 24: (744) Kevin Dicharry, Coll SR RH pitcher: released 7/1/13

Round 25: (774) Freddy Avis, RHP: didn’t sign. Attending Stanford, where in 2013 he appeared in exactly one game and pitched 2 innings before suffering a season-ending injury. That injury never got better and he retired from baseball altogether in March of 2015.

Round 26: (804) Skye Bolt, RHP: didn’t sign. Attended UNC, had an excellent college career and was a 4th round pick in 2015 by the Oakland A’s. Hit .231 for Oakland’s low-A team this year.

Round 27: (834) Cody Poteet, RHP: didn’t sign. Attended UCLA and got drafted (like Bolt) in the 4th round of the 2015 draft by the Marlins. Was 4-9 with a 2.91 ERA starting in the Sally league this year.

Round 28: (864) Hunter Bailey, Coll Sr SS/2B: Released May 2013.

Round 29: (894) Leonard “LJ” Hollins, Juco RH reliever: Released 7/2/14.

Round 30: (924) Robert “R.C.” Orlan Coll Jr LH Starter: 5-6 with a 3.93 ERA relieving and sometimes closing for High-A Potomac. 46/46 K/BB ratio in 52 2/3 innings (no, that wasn’t a typo). 1.61 whip, 5.16 fip, .250 babip. I’m not quite sure what happened to Orlan’s control, since it looked just fine in 2015 (85/28 K/BB ratio in 72 relief IP). The Virginia product (UNC by way of Deep Run HS in Glen Allen, VA) definitely needs to get his walks under control to keep moving up, but is a potential lefty reliever in a system that could use one. I’ll say Trending Steady and project him for the AA bullpen.

Round 31: (954) Michael Boyden Coll Sr RH reliever: Released Jan 2014.

Round 32: (984) Michael Mudron, Coll Sr LH reliever: Released Jan 2014.

Round 33: (1014) Mike McQuillan, Coll Sr 2B/3B: Released 3/26/15.

Round 34: Jake Jefferies, 2B: didn’t sign. Attended Cal State Fullerton and subsequently drafted again by the Nats in the 39th round in 2015. As we found out in our 2015 post, he was released in July 2016.

Round 35: Corey Bafidis, LHP: didn’t sign but Washington picked him in 2013. As we learned in the 2013 post, he got released in July 2014.

Round 36: Max Ungar, C: didn’t sign. Went to the Charles E Smith Jewish Day school in Bethesda and attended Division III Denison, where he did seem to ever play. A quick google search found him on linkedin; he graduated in 2016 and now works in the DC area. I’ll venture a guess that this was a “favor pick” to someone with ties to the organization.

Round 37: Tyler Watson, LHP: didn’t sign. Attended Kansas U for a year, then bounced to McLennan Community College in Waco, TX and and got drafted by the Angels in the 38th round of the 2014 draft. He had a 3.42 ERA for the Angels’ low-A squad in 2016. This is *not* the same Tyler Watson, by the way, that the Nats drafted in the 2015 draft.

Round 38: Jarred Messer, RHP: didn’t sign. Graduate from Malone college and has pitched the last three years with the Kansas City T-Bones in the independent American Association, going 4-5 in 2016.

Round 39: Mitchell Williams, C: didn’t sign. Attended the Marion Military Institute in Alabama, for which I cannot find any stats.

Round 40: Ricky Gutierrez, CF: didn’t sign. Presumably playing football for U-Conn, as per the Draft Tracker.

Trending Summary:

Matriculated to Majors: (2); Giolito, Renda
Trending Up (0):
Trending Steady (3): Kieboom, Perez, Orlan
Trending Down (4): Benincasa, Self, Rauh, Pena
Did Not Sign in 2012 (11): Smith, Avis, Bolt, Poteet, Jefferies, Bafidis, Ungar, Watson, Messer, Williams, Gutierrez
Released/Retired (20): Mooneyham, Miller, Jennings, Manuel, Lopez, Waterman, Poole, Schwartz, Fischer, Lippincott, Brooks, Chubb, Hudgins, Selsor, Dicharry, Bailey, Hollins, Boyden, Mudron, McQuillan
Traded (2): Renda, Giolito

Executive Summary

We have speculated that this would be a one-player draft, and we’re getting closer to that reality. Only Giolito is “succeeding” right now, and there’s rather fierce debate about his “ceiling.” Renda technically has matriculated to the majors as well, but his .183 BA there isn’t exactly all-star calibre (and he was just outrighted, meaning he may be downgraded to “peak before majors” in future versions of this post). Kieboom is on the 40-man roster but is ~~3rd out of 3~~ 4th out of 4 on the Nats Catcher depth chart and may not even play in AAA next year. The only other two guys remaining from this draft class even projected to be trending steady are both clearly org-guys who are playing out the string (Perez, Orlan). Of the 8 remaining players from this draft, Giolito is on the 40-man and no one else merited any discussion for Rule 5 protection this coming December.

If there was some complaint about the 2013 draft class … then how do you feel about this one? I remember arguing in this space about whether a one-man draft could be a success if that one player was a perennial all-star (as Giolito projected to be for a while) and there was differing opinions on the subject. Well, now that there’s questions about what Giolito will eventually be, now how do you feel about this draft class?

Written by Todd Boss

December 14th, 2016 at 8:14 pm

Potomac/High-A Pitching Staff Year in Review; 2015

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Tyler Mapes is a great draft story and my pitcher of the year out of Potomac. Photo via nola.com

This is the 4th in the 2015 Pitching staff review series, here’s a review of Potomac/High-A’s pitching staff for 2015. Other parts of the 2015 series:

For some historical perspective, here’s 2013’s version (featuring Taylor Jordan), here’s 2012’s version (Nathan Karns the feature pitcher) and 2011’s version (Danny Rosenbaum the feature pitcher) of this post specifically for Potomac/High-A. Had we done this in 2014, we would likely have “featured” Gilberto Mendez for his good work closing.

Note; while its relatively easy to do reviews for the upper levels of the system, once we get lower we’re usually talking about a lot of short sample sizes. And i’m sure there’s people reading this who saw every pitcher on this post throw in 2015; by all means feel free to comment if you believe i’ve mis-characterized someone here. Of all the write-ups I expect readers here to have better opinions of Potomac players by virtue of actually seeing them week in/week out, so definitely pipe up.

All stats are courtesy of either milb.com’s Potomac 2015 Stats page or via Fangraph’s Potomac 2015 page. Also useful here are the Big Board and the Nats Draft Tracker since so many of these lower-minors guys are recent draftees. And here’s the Baseball America Minor League Free Agent (MLFA) tracker. And here’s a list of the official MLB MLFA declarations for 2015, though these are more useful for the AAA and AA squads frankly.

Potomac Pitching Staff movement throughout the year (* == lefty)

Opening Day rotation: Pivetta, Rauh, Schwartz, Suero, Spann*
End of Season Rotation: Mapes, Dickson, AWilliams, Spann*, Howell
End of Season spot starts/swingman: Dupra, Thomas*, Valdez
End of Season bullpen: Self, Walsh*, Johansen, Orlan*, MRodriguez
Mid-Season promotions: Dupra, Bacus, Suero, Pivetta, Mapes, Giolito, Purke*, Simms, Rauh, Roark
up-and-back: Mapes, Spann*, Dupra
down-and-back: Thomas*, Rauh
demotions: KPerez, Napoli*, Amlung, Orlan*
D/L: RPena, Turnbull*, Sylvestre*, Lopez
cut/released/FAs: Mirowski, Henke, Encarnacion, Schwartz (retired), CDavis

Potomac starters. The rotation started the season with Pivetta, Rauh, Schwartz, Suero, Spann*. 19 guys got starts in 2015. Here’s an overview of the starters used, starting with the original five starters, going all the way to the rehab spot starts.

Nick Pivetta was your opening day starter, and by the end of the season he had gotten promoted and traded. He earned his promotion, going 7-4 with a 2.29 ERA in 15 starts for Potomac. He was not as successful upon his promotion to AA, but that was still enough to catch the eye of Philadelphia and be the bounty for them ridding themselves of Jonathan Papelbon‘s ego and contract. If he was still with the team, he would have been the ‘featured” player above and not Mapes for his dominant season in High-A. Outlook for Next Season: Philadelphia’s AA team in Reading, where he gets to go against Harrisburg and all his old teammates a few times a year.
Brian Rauh threw 7 excellent High-A starts before getting promoted to AA, where he spent most of the year. See AA write-up for more. Outlook for Next season: AA rotation or bust.
Blake Schwartz had three High-A starts, struggled, and retired. After a fantastic 2013 season in Potomac, he just never could make the jump to AA and (not that I’ve ever talked to him or anything) perhaps got discouraged after not really progressing further up the chain. Outlook for Next season: retired, out of baseball
Wander Suero pitched pretty effectively for Potomac in the first half in a swingman role, getting 16 appearances and 5 starts and posting a 2.41 ERA, 1.20 whip, and a 3.27 FIP. Not much in the way of swing and miss though; 39/18 K/BB in 56 innings. After moving up, he struggled in AA but inched up his K/9 rate while focusing more on middle relief. No reason to think he can’t compete in AA in 2016, and is still relatively young (he turned 24 just after the season ended so he’ll still be 24 all next year). Outlook for Next season: AA bullpen, perhaps High-A bullpen again if he gets squeezed in a numbers game.
Matthew Spann bounced between High-A and AA all year, posting mid 4 ERAs in both places. See AA write-up for more. Outlook for Next season: AA rotation.
Reynaldo Lopez led the team in IP and starts for 2015, going 6-7 with a 4.09 ERA in 99 IP across 19 starts. His stats: 4.09 ERA, 1.22 whip, 2.95 FIP and 94/28 K/BB in those 99 innings, all as a 21-yr old. It isn’t hard to see why Lopez is highly ranked on “top 10” lists for Nats prospects; he more than held his own in High-A as one of the younger hurlers in the league. The team held him back in XST for a few weeks to keep innings off his arm. While most scouting reports think he’ll eventually end up in the bullpen (no third pitch, iffy mechanics, big arm), he’s obviously worth giving more chances to stick as a high-velocity starter (in the same vein as Yordano Ventura for example). Outlook for Next season: AA rotation.
John Simms threw an excellent half season for Potomac before getting bumped up mid-season; see AA writeup for more. Outlook for Next season: AA rotation.
Lucas Giolito threw an dominant half season for Potomac (86 ks in 69 innings) after being kept in XST for the first 5 weeks of the season (so much for those pre-2015 interviews where he proclaimed that he had no innings limits, eh?) before also getting bumped up mid-season; see AA writeup for more. Outlook for Next season: AA rotation.
Austen Williams blitzed the Sally league and forced a promotion to Potomac mid-season, where he continued pitching well. In High-A he was 4-6 with a 2.59 ERA, 1.09 whip, 3.22 fip and 41/17 K/BB over 63 high-A innings. The 2014 draftee is looking like a nice little find. There does seem to be a bit of fortuitousness in his numbers (.253 BABIP and a delta between his ERA and FIP), so I could see the log-jam in the AA projected rotation keeping Williams back in Potomac for the first half of the 2016 season. Outlook for Next season: High-A rotation to start with an eye on quick promotion.
Philips Valdez dominated the Sally league and earned a promotion after two months. In Potomac he bounced in and out of the rotation, getting 10 starts across 22 appearances and posting a 3.77 ERA in High-A. Other numbers: 1.44 whip, 3.26 fip, 48/25 K/BB in 59 High-A innings. Valdez has been around for a while; this was his *seventh* season in the Nats organization. He just turned 24. But he has relatively few innings on his arm; just 260 IP across those seven seasons (he missed the entirety of 2012). He’s looking like he could be a low-profile decent starter going forward, though he may run out of time in the system before the team is faced with a tougher decision on how to keep him. For now, I think he repeats High-A to start, is tried out as a full time starter, and we’ll see if he can push forward to AA in 2016. Outlook for Next season: High-A rotation
Tyler Mapes so far is a pretty good 2014 draft success story; he was a 30th round *senior sign* out of Tulane who was basically unhittable in Short-A last year, threw 6 clean innings in Low-A and was bumped up to High-A (the first 2014 draftee to get promoted that high) after just a couple of weeks. Once in Potomac, he continued to pitch well in a swing-man role; 30 appearances, 8 starts, a 2.38 ERA across 90 innings, 1.22 whip, 2.78 FIP and 75/17 K/BB over 96 innings in High-A. Not too shabby. If it were me, I’d push him right to AA and stick him in the rotation, but as noted before I’m projecting an awful lot of starters to be in that Harrisburg rotation right now. I’m curious to see how things shake out for someone like Mapes; he didn’t last to the 30th round as a favor to the Nats; is there something limiting in his capabilities that will cause him to suddenly top out like a lot of late-round senior signs? We’ll see. Outlook for Next season: AA rotation.
Ian Dickson was hurt the first half of the season and finished 2015 the exact same place he finished 2014: in the Potomac rotation with decent to effective numbers. 2015 totals for Dickson: 3-3, 3.60 ERA in 12 appearances/8 starts. We see a problem though: 31 ks and 39 (?!) walks in 40 innings in Potomac this year. Wow; that’s a walk an inning. He never saw this kind of walk rate before, so hopefully its just a remnant of whatever injury kept him out the first half of the year. Nonetheless, he seems like he’ll be back in Potomac a third year until he can solve his walk rate issues. Outlook for Next season: High-A rotation.
Dakota Bacus began the season in Potomac, had 5 starts and 8 appearances and got bumped quickly to Harrisburg, where he played most of the season. See AA write-up for more.
Jeff Howell is a pretty interesting player. He’s a career minor league backup catcher, having toiled in the lower minor leagues since 2005. He signed on with Washington in 2012 and hung around as a backup between the levels for a couple of years. Then suddenly, at the age of 32, he decided to try his hand on the mound. Perhaps he was inspired by other Catchers-turned-Hurlers like Jason Motte. He (presumably) hung out in XST for most of the season learning how to pitch, then threw a couple of games in the Rookie league, then for Hagerstown, then finally for Potomac at season’s end. He struggled once he got to Potomac, giving up 9 runs in 13 innings but more importantly walking 17 guys while he was there. He’s now a MLFA and one may think that he’d re-up with Washington since we’re the ones who gave him a shot. We’ll see how the off-season goes. He may choose to pitch elsewhere where he can be guaranteed a rotation spot (a tough one in our system, since we’re completely overloaded with arms from pitching-heavy drafts over the past few years). Outlook for Next season: continuing his conversion to pitcher in another organization.
Others who got starts in Potomac for 2015:
- Matt Purke got three brief starts in Potomac before settling in Harrisburg for the year; see AA write-up for more.
- Rehab starts for Potomac in 2015: Barrett, Roark, Janssen and Carpenter (though technically Roark’s were not rehab but “stretching out” starts).

Potomac Relievers: taking a look at the relief corps. We’ll organize relievers by going by IP from most to least. Anyone with less than 10 IP will get cursory analysis at the end.

Justin Thomas was the bullpen leader in IP for Potomac in 2015, throwing 57 innings across 28 games, posting a 3.43 ERA, 1.21 whip, a 2.84 FIP and getting 50/18 K/BB in those 57 innings. He’s a lefty but was used more as a long-man, not being limited to just short stints. He’s looking great considering his limited draft pedigree (senior sign out of a small college in the 21st round) and I see no reason not to keep bumping him up the chain. Outlook for Next season: AA rotation.
Jake Johanssen was 1-7 with a 5.44 ERA, 1.81 whip, 4.69 fip with 48/27 K/BB in 48 relief innings for Potomac. Johanssen was our top draft pick in 2013, has already been “demoted” from a starter to the pen, and now seemingly can’t perform in a relief role either. Where do you go from here with him? You and I know that his large bonus is a “sunk cost” and shouldn’t dictate his usage, but teams don’t seem to see it that way. Just look at how long the Nats kept Brett Mooneyham around after it became clear he wasn’t capable of performing, even at lower levels of the minors? I see Johanssen repeating High-A and trying to get his career back on track. Outlook for Next season: High-A bullpen.
Derek Self seems to be taking a step back in his career; after posting a 1.69 ERA through half a season in Potomac last year, he more than earned a promotion up to AA where he more than held his own. However after just 14 innings in AA this year, he got dumped back to Potomac, thus repeating High-A for the third straight year. He was solid again; a 4/1 K/BB ratio in middle relief, but where is his Nats career going at this point? Obviously he needs to be in the AA bullpen next year, but you could have also said that last year and it didn’t work out. There’s going to be a lot of AA bullpen competition; if he gets squeezed out does he get cut in 2016? we’ll see. Outlook for Next season: AA bullpen competition/Release Candidate.
Brian Dupra is in a similar boat as Derek Self; he’s now 27 and spent most of his third successive year in Potomac. He was promoted mid-season to AA but didn’t last long after getting hit hard. Final Potomac stats for 2015: 2.79 ERA in 42 mostly later bullpen innings. I think he’s going to be in a similar situation as Self this coming spring; if he cannot cut it at AA (and there’s plenty of competition for that bullpen), he may get cut loose entirely. Not that it should matter, but it should be noted that Dupra was a senior sign for limited bonus money out of Notre Dame in 2011, so it could be a “make the team or get cut” situation. Outlook for Next season: AA bullpen competition/Release candidate.
Cody Davis was struggling early in the season, with a decent ERA but ugly peripherals (4.55 fip, 10/15 K/BB in 21 ip) and was released towards the end of June as upwards player movement started to need bullpen spots. The undrafted MLFA signing from 2011 played parts of 5 seasons for the system but seemed to fall apart this year as he repeated High-A. It does not look like he picked up anywhere and may be done. Outlook for Next season: out of baseball.
Manny Rodriguez only threw 21 innings between two different D/L stints this year, and then was released soon after the end of the season. It seems that the team believed he never recovered from the injury that cost him two full seasons early in his minor league career. Outlook for Next season: out of baseball.
Jake Walsh threw 17 scoreless innings as a late-inning/closer in Low-A before getting bumped up to High-A in July. From there out he posted a 3.66 ERA in 19.2 innings across 9 appearances with a 19/10 K/BB ratio. There’s something odd going on with Walsh; why was he even in Low-A to start 2015? He posted a sub-2.00 ERA across low- and high-A LAST YEAR, yet didn’t start in Potomac nor get considered for the AA rotation despite being a senior sign in 2013. He now holds a CAREER 1.65 ERA and seems to me to more than have earned a shot at a look at a higher level. Outlook for Next season: AA bullpen.
Kevin Perez spent the 2nd half of the year in Hagerstown after struggling early on in Potomac: see Low-A write-up for more.
Robert Orlan spent most of the season in Hagerstown but posted a 2.20 ERA in Potomac in 16.1 August innings: see Low-A write-up for more.
Justin Amlung, similarly to Orlan above, spent most of the season in Hagerstown but posted an excellent 1.84 ERA in Potomac in 14.2 July and August innings: see Low-A write-up for more.
Other Relievers of note who had less than 10 IP for Potomac this year:
- David Napoli had 8 IP for Potomac before getting demoted to Hagerstown: see Low-A write-up for more.
- Matt Purke threw 7 IP for Potomac during his tour of the Nats farm system in 2015: see AA write-up for more.
- Erik Davis threw 3 re-hab IP in 2015; see AA write-up for more.
- Tanner Roark threw one 4Ip start during his “stretch out” minor league stint; see MLB write-up for more.
- Brenden Webb, normally an Outfielder, threw a 3Ip mop-up game (really? they couldn’t find ONE reliever out of the 32 guys who threw innings for Potomac this year?)
- MLBers Aaron Barrett, Casey Janssen and David Carpenter each had some re-hab innings; see MLB write-up for more.
- A few guys spent the entire year on the D/L: Ronald Pena, Kylin Turnbull, Hector Sylvestre: all are looking at repeating Potomac next year if/when healthy.

Summary

Potomac certainly saw a lot of churn in its pitching staff; 32 total pitchers used (19 different starters including rehab starts by relievers). Their leading IP was Lopez, who didn’t even hit 100 IP on the year. There were at least 6-7 arms who earned their promotions to AA mid-season, a great sign for the rising tide of pitching talent in the system. Lots of guys with ERAs that start with a “2” in the season-ending stats. It didn’t help Potomac in the standings; they finished both halves several games under .500 and out of the playoffs. This will create quite a competition for the AA staff next year: my projections at this point show at least 6-7 rotation candidates, 8-9 bullpen candidates and another 3-4 guys who are right at that age where they may be summarily cut if they don’t make the AA team in 2016. Harsh, but good for the Nats, who could use all the bullpen help they can get.

Written by Todd Boss

January 8th, 2016 at 8:41 am

2015 Season Statistical Review of the 2012 draft class

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Lucas Giolito still leads the line of the Nats 2012 draft class. Photo unk via federalbaseball.com

(Useless blog information: this is my 900th post! And we’ve had nearly 7,500 comments on those posts; that’s fantastic. )

The next in a series: previously we reviewed the 2015 season stats for the 2015 draft class, 2014 draft class, and the 2013 draft class. Like with the 2013 post, this one was easier to do thanks to having done the 2012 guys back in 2013 time-frame. Is it worth going back one or two more draft classes at this point? Maybe not; the 2012 draft class has mostly already been Rule-5 exposed, a good benchmark for prospects to make it or break it in terms of advancement or resignation as “org guy.” I have gone back one more class to 2011 and that’s it, so one more in this series after this.

Web links to use while reading:

Stats are pulled from milb.com and/or fangraphs.com; put the player name into the search bar to get his seasonal stats
The MLB Draft Tracker (which I believe is the best draft tracker out there) is the best place to get draft class information.
The Big Board and the Draft Tracker are the goto resources for prospects for any Nats fan.
Baseball-reference.com’s draft database for Nats 2011 class.
My working XLS in Google for all this data (cut-n-pasted at the bottom).
TheBaseballCube.com for really obscure stats for players, like college stats for these upper round 30s guys.

Without further ado:

Round 1: (#16 overall) Lucas Giolito HS RH Starting pitcher: 7-7, 3.15 ERA across two levels, starting at HighA and moved up to AA. 131/37 K/BB in 117 IP (21 “starts”) with 1.96/3.18 fip, and .352/.341 babip splits between HighA/AA. A fantastic season for the newly-turned 21-yr old, who dominated HighA before moving up and holding his own in AA for the last two months of the season. All the pre-season talk about how he was going to have “no innings limits” was bunk; he was kept in XST until the first week of May and routinely skipped starts so as to extend him through the whole season while keeping his innings year-over-year increase just below the magical 20% mark (98 IP in 2014, 117 in 2015). He’s now routinely named as either the best or the 2nd best (behind LA’s Julio Urias) pitching prospect in all of baseball. Not much else to say. I’m guessing he starts 2016 in AA, moves to AAA and may even get tapped once he surpasses the Super-2 deadline as an injury fill-in starter in the majors. Look for him to get about 140 innings in 2016 all told (that’s 20% bump from his 2015 117 total). Trending Up.

Round 2: (80) Tony Renda, Coll Jr 2B: .267/.333/.340 in Harrisburg with 15/19 K/BB ratio and 13 SBs in a little less than a half a season in AA before he was traded to the Yankees on 6/11/15 for David Carpenter. Renda had progressed nicely in the system as a defense and speed-first second baseman, but in the immediate seems like he was blocked by Wilmer Difo, perhaps the rising of Chris Bostick and the presence in the majors of three or four different guys who can play an adequate second base. So the team flipped him for something they needed; reliever depth.

Round 3: (111) Brett Mooneyham, Coll Jr LH starting pitcher: was 0-2 with a 6.41 ERA in 19 ineffective innings for LowA Hagerstown before the Nats finally cut the cord and released him on 6/3/15. Mooneyham was in Low-A for the third successive season, having failed to make the cut in Potomac in each of 2013 and 2014. You’d have to say that he’s one of the more higher-profile drafting failures of the Mike Rizzo era. Or maybe not; the team had to go over-slot to sign Giolito and may have skimped for the rest of the draft.

Round 4: (144) Brandon Miller Coll Sr Corner OF: .226/.301/.421 in 59 games with Potomac before voluntarily retiring on 7/10/15. Despite showing some power (he hit 20 homers in the 2013 season), he never really solved HighA and made way in the Potomac outfield for some rising DSL grads.

Round 5: (174) Spencer Kieboom, Coll Jr C: Slashed .248/.344/.346 with 30/36 K/BB in 246 ABs with Potomac, which were incremental steps back from his great low-A numbers in 2014. He missed a good portion of the season with injury (concussion) and is currently playing in the Arizona Fall League to make up for it. He was starting to get some notice in the organization, appearing in the tail end of top-30 prospect lists. Despite his step back in offense, Kieboom has taken a huge step forward in terms of his defense, his play-calling and pitch-framing. Scouting reports on him are glowing in this regard, with most projecting him at worst as a backup catcher in the bigs because of his defensive capability. I think he starts 2016 in AA with an eye towards getting his bat back on track, and if he keeps producing he could soon be a viable alternative to the current catching tandem in the majors. Trending up.

Round 6: (204) Hayden Jennings, HS OF/CF: Released in May 2014 after two years in the GCL with big K numbers.

Round 7: (234) Robert Benincasa, Coll Jr. RH relief pitcher: Just 4 IP for Harrisburg this year until suffering a season-ending injury. He made the AA bullpen out of spring (which is where he ended the 2014 season) and seemed to be in a decent spot but got almost no playing time. Minor league relievers generally don’t get a lot of love from prospect hounds, but in a system where an able-bodied RHP who could throw strikes would have been nice to have in August and September, there’s still opportunity for Benincasa going forward. Trending Steady if he’s healthy, looking at a ST2016 release if not.

Round 8: (264) Stephen Perez, Coll Jr. SS: slashed just .209/.302/.280 with 87/59 K/BB in 435 ABs between Potomac and Harrisburg. 2 homers, 16 steals. Perez broke camp with Harrisburg but couldn’t cut it, hitting just .130 in April before getting dumped back to repeat High-A. In 1300+ career minor league ABs he’s now hitting just .233 and doesn’t seem like he’s long for the organization. As mentioned in this space before, the Nats drafted a ton of college middle infielders in 2015 and Perez may struggle to keep his slot given what’s expected to rise up. Trending down.

Round 9: (294) Derek Self, Coll Sr. RH relief pitcher: 4-5, 3.56 ERA with 45/15 K/BB in 60ip. 3.71 fip, .291 BABIP in Potomac. Broke camp as a member of the AA bullpen but got hit and was dumped back to high-A, where he spent most of the season. This is the third straight year he’s been in Potomac as a college senior draftee; odds are there won’t be a 4th. He may break camp with a full season squad in 2016 but may fall victim to a numbers game once the short-season guys start pushing for promotions. Trending down.

Round 10: (324) Craig Manuel, Coll Sr C: slashed just .206/.276/.242 between three levels but mostly with Potomac. He had just 165 ABs on the year as he served as the backup catcher in High-A. Its his third straight season of essentially being an “old for the level” backup catcher who has struggled to hit the Mendoza Line since leaving Low-A. Its hard to read the tea-leaves on catchers since they’re so scarce, so I won’t summarily pass judgement that Manuel’s time is about to come to an end. He could very well be the backup catcher again in Potomac next year. He is a local guy (born in Rockville, MD though he went to HS in Florida and college in Texas), so perhaps he enjoys playing in the DC area. Otherwise, just based on his offensive numbers I have to say he’s Trending Down.

Round 11: (354) Brian Rauh, Coll Jr RH starter/reliever: 4-7, 3.39 ERA with 84/24 K/BB ratio in 101 innings (18 starts) across *four* different levels. 2.61/4.95 fip in Potomac/Harrisburg where he spent the most time this year. Rauh had a nice tour of the system this year, starting in High-A (he was the #2 opening day starter), getting hurt, doing some rehab in the GCL, then working his way back up the chain from Low-A to High-A to AA. He ended the year in Harrisburg’s rotation, for what its worth. He didn’t entirely impress at AA but had an incrementally better season in High-A. My guess is that he starts the 2016 season in the AA rotation, but he has to show he’s worthy in AA. Trending Steady.

Round 12: (384) Carlos Lopez, Coll Sr 1B: Slashed just .138/.265/.241 in 10 games in Hagerstown before being released on 6/30/15. This was the third straight season that Lopez featured in Hagerstown, having spent the first two months of the season in XST after getting beat out for the 1B job in the spring. Eventually there just was no more room for Lopez, with uber prospect Jose Marmolejos-Diaz soon taking over at 1B in Hagerstown and slugging 11 homers in a half-season.

Round 13: (414) Elliott Waterman, Coll Jr LH reliever: Struggled in two Short-A stints and was released on 3/15/14 prior to the beginning of the 2014 season when he couldn’t break into a full-season bullpen.

Round 14: (444) Jordan Poole, Juco-2 corner OF: Similarly to Waterman above, Poole struggled to hit in two seasons shuttling between Short-A and GCL, and the Nats released him on 3/14/14 when he wasn’t set to make a full season roster.

Round 15: (474) Brandon Smith, OF: Didn’t sign. Attending Division II Grand Canyon University, where he remains today. He hit a robust .348/.402/.478 for them this season but was not drafted as a draft-eligible junior. Maybe the Nats take a flier on him in a late round since they love doing re-drafts on late-round HS picks.

Round 16: (504) Ronald Pena, Juco-2 RH starter/reliever: threw just four rehab innings in 2015, spending the entire season on the Potomac Disabled List. He was coming off a season where he had a 5.96 ERA in High-A and needed 2015 to show he could make the jump. My guess is that he’ll get another shot at being the Potomac swing-man in 2016 but he may struggle to make the squad, given the huge number of college arms pushing into the system year after year. Trending Down.

Round 17: (534) Blake Schwartz, Coll Sr RH Starting pitcher: 0-2, 5.87 ERA in 3 Potomac starts and then he called it quits, officially retiring on 4/24/15. Schwartz was *so good* in 2013 for Potomac (11-4, 2.65 ERA) then struggled in AA before getting hurt in 2014 and missing half the season. I thought the retirement was surprising; maybe his 2014 injury just killed his arm and with it his career. Too bad; he was looking like a fantastic low-round find.

Round 18: (564) David Fischer, Coll Sr RH reliever: Released on 7/3/14 after bouncing around the system for a couple of years.

Round 19: (594) Bryan Lippincott, Coll Sr 1B: Retired ahead of the 2014 season after one decent season in Short-A.

Round 20: (624) James Brooks, Coll SR SS/3B: Released May 2013; he was a senior sign who played last season mostly in the GCL, save for a 2 week stretch where he went 1-32 in Short-A.

Round 21: (654) Austin Chubb, Coll Sr C: Released ahead of the 2015 season after struggling to a .221/.299/.324 line in Hagerstown in 2014. Signed as a MLFA with Los Angeles and bounced around their farm system this year, missing huge chunks of the season with injury. Backup Catchers can live forever.

Round 22: (684) Will Hudgins, Coll Sr RH reliever: Suddenly retired 7/12/13 per his Twitter account.

Round 23: (714) Casey Selsor, Coll Sr LH Starter/Reliever: Posted a 4.29 ERA in ShortA in 2014, then released on 3/20/14.

Round 24: (744) Kevin Dicharry, Coll SR RH pitcher: released 7/1/13

Round 26: (804) Skye Bolt, RHP: didn’t sign. Attended UNC, had an excellent college career and was a 4th round pick in 2015 by the Oakland A’s. He kind of reminds me of our 2015 pick Andrew Stevenson frankly; kind of an odd swing, defense-first speedy outfielder with limited power.

Round 27: (834) Cody Poteet, RHP: didn’t sign. Attended UCLA and got drafted (like Bolt) in the 4th round of the 2015 draft by the Marlins.

Round 28: (864) Hunter Bailey, Coll Sr SS/2B: released May 2013.

Round 29: (894) Leonard “LJ” Hollins, Juco RH reliever: released 7/2/14 after struggling for half a season in Hagerstown.

Round 30: (924) Robert Orlan Coll Jr LH Starter: 3-1, 3.00 ERA with 85/28 K/BB ratio in 72 relief IP between LowA and HighA. Orlan bounced between Potomac and Hagerstown all season, ending up in HighA with pretty good numbers in a “more than a loogy” role. Especially impressive is 85 Ks in just 72 ip. He’s older for these levels, inarguably, but could put himself in a good position by continuing to succeed in 2016. I see him in the Potomac bullpen again with an eye towards a June promotion to AA when the short-season promotions come due. Trending Steady.

Round 31: (954) Michael Boyden Coll Sr RH reliever: Released Jan 2014 after struggling for two years in Rookie ball as a college senior sign.

Round 32: (984) Michael Mudron, Coll Sr LH reliever: Released Jan 2014 after posting a 6.82 ERA in Short-A in 2013.

Round 33: (1014) Mike McQuillan, Coll Sr 2B/3B: Released 3/26/15 after hitting just .207 in Potomac last year, likely losing out on a numbers game.

Round 34: Jake Jefferies, 2B: didn’t sign. Attended Cal State Fullerton and subsequently drafted again by the Nats in the 39th round in 2015.

Round 35: Corey Bafidis, LHP: didn’t sign but Washington picked him in 2013.

Round 36: Max Ungar, C: didn’t sign. Attending Division III Denison, where he did not seem to even be playing.

Round 37: Tyler Watson, LHP: didn’t sign. Attended Kansas U for a year, then bounced to McLennan Community College in Waco, TX and and got drafted by the Angels in the 38th round of the 2014 draft. This is *not* the same Tyler Watson, by the way, that the Nats drafted in the 2015 draft.

Round 38: Jarred Messer, RHP: didn’t sign. Pitched the last two years with the Kansas City T-Bones in the independent American Association

Round 39: Mitchell Williams, C: didn’t sign. Attended the Marion Military Institute in Alabama, for which I cannot find any current stats.

Round 40: Ricky Gutierrez, CF: didn’t sign. Presumably playing football for U-Conn, as per the Draft Tracker.

Trending Summary:

Trending Up (2): Giolito, Kieboom
Trending Steady (3): Benincasa, Rauh, Orlan
Trending Down (4): Perez, Self, Manuel, Pena
Did Not Sign in 2012 (11): Smith, Avis, Bolt, Poteet, Jefferies, Bafidis, Ungar, Watson, Messer, Williams, Gutierrez
Released/Retired (19): Mooneyham, Miller, Jennings, Lopez, Waterman, Poole, Schwartz, Fischer, Lippincott, Brooks, Chubb, Hudgins, Selsor, Dicharry, Bailey, Hollins, Boyden, Mudron, McQuillan
Traded (1): Renda

Executive Summary

Three years onward, there’s just 10 of the 40 names left active somewhere in the minors. 11 never signed and another 19 have been released or retired. We cashed in Renda on a middle reliever who subsequently got hurt, and this class has one of the best 2 or 3 prospects in the game. Otherwise … there’s just not much there. It seems likely that the Nats 2012 class is going to end up producing just two MLB players; a near Ace and possibly a backup Catcher. Maybe one of the trending steady middle relievers can make a run ala Aaron Barrett. Otherwise, is this class a disappointment?

Written by Todd Boss

October 30th, 2015 at 1:11 pm

Nats Full Season Pitching Staffs

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A.J. Cole leads the minor league starter depth. Photo AP

All our full-season squads have been announced, and its time to start looking at the pitching staffs.

I never got to doing my massive reviews of the rotations of the various farm system teams this past off-season (job change, less free time at home, they being a ton of work, etc). Which also led to my not doing any predictions on where our pitchers would start the 2015 season. Which is a bummer, because it is always fun to see if my predictions were decent and to see how player movement has affected the squads. Lets go team by team and (focusing on the rotations) look at how things have changed since the end of last season.

MLB (25-man roster announcement here)

2015 Rotation: Scherzer, Zimmermann, Strasburg, Gonzalez, Fister
2014 Opening Day Rotation: Strasburg, Gonzalez, Zimmermann, Roark, Jordan
2014 Closing Day rotation: Strasburg, Gonzalez, Zimmermann, Fister, Roark

Discussion: We’ve certainly talked this through. Quickly; Fister‘s 2014 spring training injury opened the door for both Roark and Jordan to duke it out for the 2014 5th starter job, eventually won by Roark, who gave the team a 5-win season as the 5th starter. That wasn’t enough for the Nats though; committing $210M on Scherzer for the next decade or so, pushing Roark to mop-up guy/insurance starter for opening of 2015.

Manager Matt Williams also shook up the 2015 rotation order, installing the starters by accomplishment, not by reputation. Thus 3-year running opening day starter Strasburg is dropped to the #3 hole, and last year’s #2 Gonzalez is now basically the #5 starter.

Enough about the MLB discussion though; lets get to the minor league rotations.

All four full season minor league squads are announced here by Nats Journal. In some cases we know who the rotation will be, in other cases the below is a huge guess. Especially at Hagerstown (as we’ll see).

AAA (Syracuse roster announcement link)

2015 Rotation: Cole, Jordan, Hill, McGregor, Billings (with Lively, Rivero (L) as swingmen)
2014 Opening Day Rotation: Rosenbaum (L), Hill, Tatusko, Treinen, Poveda
2014 Closing Day rotation: Laffey (L), Hill, Treinen, Lively, Cole (Espino 9/1 call-up)

Discussion

A late spring training injury to Casey Janssen has called presumed AAA starter Blake Treinen into action in the Nats bullpen, perhaps for the long run. Which has opened up a couple of spots in the Syracuse rotation … and they’ve been surprisingly filled. Instead of installing who I presumed to be the 5th AAA starter (trade acquisition Felipe Rivero), the team has announced that 2014 MLFA signing/rubber-armed swingman Scott McGregor and 2015 MLFA Bruce Billings will fill out the rotation.

Changes from 2014? Rosenbaum traded for catcher depth, Tatusko to Korea, Poveda remains an unsigned MLFA, and Laffey signed a new MLFA deal with Colorado.

One has to think that McGregor/Billings are temporary holds in the rotation until Treinen returns. The conversion of Rivero to the bullpen is more interesting; the team is rather short on lefty starters in the system right now (thanks to a slew of upper-end draft pick lefty starters failing in the past few years … ahem Solis, Purke, Mooneyham, Turnbull). As we’ll see later on, there’s nobody really that makes sense to supplant any of these guys as a starter from AA or XST.

AA (Harrisburg roster announcement here)

2015 Rotation: Voth, Ross, Espino, Alderson, Swynenberg (with Bleier (L) perhaps as a swingman?)
2014 Opening Day Rotation: Schwartz, Rivero (L), Gilliam, Purke (L), Cole
2014 Closing Day rotation: Dupra (sort of), Voth, Rivero (L), Poveda, (Espino 9/1 promotion), Kroenke

Discussion

Harrisburg went through an awful lot of starters last year. 19 guys got starts, 15 of which were not just one-offs. From last year’s opening day, Schwartz got demoted after putting up a 7+ ERA and then hurt, Gilliam got hurt, and Purke had Tommy John surgery. By the end of the season, only Rivero remained in the rotation, though he spent a good spell on the D/L as well. Dupra got 12 starts and 24 appearances and was medicore (5.60 ERA), Poveda had great ratios (39Ks in 32innings) but an ugly era (5.34), and MLFA Kroenke was abhorrent (6.72 ERA).

Returning for 2015 are Austin Voth, the 2013 draft pick who shot up two levels last year, and last year’s MLFA Paolo Espino, who has re-upped with the team for 2015. They are joined by newly acquired Joe Ross, MLFA Tim Alderson and the surprising Matt Swynenberg (who was closer to retirement than a rotation gig this time last year). I have 2015 MLFA Richard Bleier as a swingman/spot starter for now. This rotation may be augmented by some of the Missing/XST arms (see later discussion).

High-A

2015 Rotation: Bacus, Pivetta, Spann (L), Suero, Rauh (with Schwartz as swingman?)
2014 Opening Day Rotation: Rauh, Rpena, Mooneyham (L), Encarnacion, Lee (L)
2014 Closing Day rotation: Bacus, Spann (L), Dickson, Sylvestre, Rauh,

Discussion

Lots of turnover in the Potomac rotation as well; 14 guys got starts from last year. Dakota Bacus, Brian Rauh, and Matthew Spann are reprising their roles as starters from the end of last season, while two others (Dickson and Sylvestre) remain in XST limbo for now. What happened to the rest of these guys? Brett Mooneyham and Nick Lee posted ERAs of 7.36 and 10.05 respectively and were both demoted. Encarnacion was nearly as bad and was outright released by the organization earlier this past off-season.

Luckily, we kind of already know that the opening day rotation is going to change: we know where two of the organization’s brightest arms are heading. Giolito and Lopez should supplant Bacus and Rauh, making for a rather formidable Potomac rotation.

Low-A

2015 Rotation: AWilliams, LReyes, Van Orden … and then who knows. Orlan? Ullman?
2014 Opening Day Rotation: Pivetta Voth, Giolito, Silvestre (L)/Anderson, Johansen,
2014 Closing Day rotation: Pivetta, RLopez, Ott, Dickey, Suero,

Discussion

Well; Hagerstown’s rotation should be … interesting. When you look at the assigned arms, there’s only three clear-cut starters from last year. So clearly either the Hagerstown team will be getting reinforcements from the XST list or there’s guys being converted from 2014 relievers to 2015 starters.

Pivetta and Giolito were the mainstays from last year; both will be in high-A at some point soon. Ott was flipped as a throw-in with the Steven Souza deal. Its hard to pass judgement on this rotation until we talk about those in XST.

Missing/XST

There’s a TON of arms who are currently unassigned.

Starters: JRodriguez, Dickey, Dickson, Estevez, Lopez, Giolito, Simms, Silvestre, Bourque, Amartinez, Gilliam
Relievers: Purke, Bates, Holland, Lehman, Mooneyham, Pena, Simmons, Solis, Turnbull, Feliz, McDowell, Torres, DWilliams

Where might these guys end up? Well, based on their performance from last year, here’s some guesses for the starters:

AAA: nobody who isn’t already there
AA: Simms, Silvestre, Gilliam
High-A: Dickey, Dickson, Lopez, Giolito, Dupra (already on the Potomac D/L)
Low-A: JRodriguez, Estevez, Bourque, AMartinez

And the relievers?

AAA: Purke (already on the AAA D/L), Holland, Lehman (release candidate), Simmons (release candidate)
AA: Bates (release candidate), Pena, Solis
High-A: Mooneyham, Turnbull
Low-A: Feliz, McDowell, Torres, DWilliams

We’ll see how things go; I guess we could start seeing some minor league releases soon enough.

Written by Todd Boss

April 8th, 2015 at 12:00 pm

What is the benchmark for a “good” or “bad” draft?

39 comments

Will Fedde make the 2014 draft a “success?” Photo via chicagonow.com

The title of my previous post was pretty simple: “Nats 2014 Draft == failure.” And it resulted in a rather spirited debate in the comments about the 2014 draft, the 2008 draft in hindsight, etc.

In that debate, I postulated my benchmarks for judging whether or not a team’s draft was “good” or not. Here were the six guidelines I stated for judgement, going round by round/section by section in the draft:

a. 1st rounder: future MLB above average regular to all-star
b. 2nd rounder: future MLB regular
c. 3rd-5th: expect at least one future MLB player in at least a backup/bullpen role
d. 6th-10th: hope for at least one player to reach the MLB level.
e. 11th-20th: hope for at least three players who matriculate to AA or higher
f. 20th and above: hope for one-two players to matriculate to AA or higher

Lets go back through all 10 Nats drafts and see whether these guidelines hold up. For each of the 6 requirements, we’ll give a quick “yes/no the condition was met” for each year. Critical to this analysis is the Nats DraftTracker XLS, milb.com and baseball-reference.com for searching for old players. Also useful is the Baseball America executive database, which populated the staff in charge of each draft.

Editors Note post-posting: I’ve added in the total known bonus amounts, per suggestion in the comments. Data taken from the Draft Tracker. Actual figures are likely higher because most bonus figures past the 10th round are unknown (but likely minimal). Also per good suggestion, I’m adding in the draft position for context, since its far easier to get a future all-star if picking in the top 5 versus later on.

2005: Owner: MLB. President: n/a. GM: Jim Bowden. Scouting Director: Dana Brown. Drafting 4th overall. Total Bonus $ spent: $3,990,500

a. Yes: 1st rounder Ryan Zimmerman: MLB above average regular (former all-star)
b. n/a: we had no 2nd rounder; forfeited for Vinny Castilla
c. Yes: 4th rounder Justin Maxwell turned into a 4th outfielder. No 3rd rounder.
d. Yes: 6th rounder Marco Estrada has turned into a decent starter (albeit for someone else after we released him)
e. Yes: 11th rounder John Lannan and 12th rounder Craig Stammen turned into MLBers, far above expectations here. 18th rounder Tim Pahuta had long ML career for us, playing 3 years at AA.
f. Yes: 33rd rounder Ryan Butcher was a 6yr MLFA who left the org but now has MLB experience with Atlanta. No other 20th+ round draftees made it out of A-ball, but Butcher’s MLB matriculation makes up for it.

2005: Success, inarguably. 6 guys matriculating to the majors is a winning draft, especially considering the lack of a 2nd or 3rd round pick, the ownership confusion, and the budget restrictions put on the team.

2006: Owner: MLB. President: n/a. GM: Bowden. Scouting Director: Brown. Drafting 15th overall. Total Bonus $ spent: $5,222,000

a. No: 1st rounder Chris Marrero looks like a 4-a guy at best and 1st rounder Colten Willems never made it above A-ball.
b. No: the team failed to sign 2nd rounder Sean Black and 2nd rounder Stephen Englund never made it out of low-A.
c. No: none of their 3rd-5th picks made the majors. The highest one of these guys got was 5th rounder Corey VanAllen, who did pitch in AAA after passing through the rule-5 draft and finished out his 6-years with the org. VanAllen is in Indy ball in 2014.
d. No: they didn’t even sign their 7th, 9th or 10th round picks. The closest they got to a MLBer here was 6th rounder Zech Zinicola, who played at AAA for quite a while, was rule-5 picked and returned, and now sits in Baltimore’s AA team.
e. Yes: 12th rounder Cole Kimball made it the majors briefly, while 17th rounder Erik Arnesen, 18th rounder Adam Carr and 13th rounder Hassan Pena all toiled in AAA for several years.
f. Yes, sort of. We’re all well aware of the success of 41st rounder Brad Peacock, but he was picked under the “draft-and-follow” system that no longer exists. So while yes it was a 41st round pick, in our current system Peacock wouldn’t have been picked at all and/or wouldn’t have signed but would have been picked the subsequent year based on his great first-college juco season. Of the rest of the 20th+ round picks, one guy had a couple months in AA (26th rounder Brett Logan) to serve as a backup catcher; he hit .102/.170/.122 in 20 games in 2007 and was released.

2006: Failure: 3 guys who have MLB appearances but near zero impact for this team. Peacock enabled the Nats to get Gio Gonzalez but I think we see now that Peacock wasn’t the driving prospect in that deal (now that Derek Norris has made an all-star team).

For as much as went right for the team in the 2005 draft, it went wrong in 2006. Was the lack of signing their 7th, 9th and 10th round picks evident of “fiscal restraint” demanded by the other 29 owners? Clearly to me, the focus on HS drafted personnel in this draft has Bowden’s hands all over it, and almost none of them panned out in the slightest.

2007: Owner: Ted Lerner group. President: Stan Kasten. GM: Bowden. Scouting Director: Brown. Assistant GM/VP, Baseball Operations: Mike Rizzo. Drafting 6th overall. Total Bonus $ spent: $7,619,300

a. No: The team went one-for-three on its first rounders: Michael Burgess got to AA in his fourth pro season but never further, was flipped for Tom Gorzelanny. Josh Smoker‘s failure has been well documented here. But Ross Detwiler, for all the complaining about his usage and role in this space, did make the majors and looked like a good 4th starter (in 2012). I still believe he could start in this league and is better than a long-man. However, the condition is that a first round pick turns into a successful regular, and this crop failed in all regards.
b. Yes. 2nd rounder Jordan Zimmermann is now a 2-time all-star and is probably the best 2nd round pick the organization has ever had. His successes make up for their other 2nd rounder Jake Smolinksi who has made his MLB debut but not until he became a 6-yr MLFA.
c. Yes. 4th rounder Derek Norris made the 2014 all-star team for Oakland. 3rd rounder Stephen Souza has debuted in the majors and looks quite promising (albeit blocked) for our AAA team. 5th rounder Brad Meyers toiled for us in AAA for years before being released this spring after a long injury recovery.
d. Yes: 10th round pick Patrick McCoy made it to AAA for us, signed with Detroit as a MLFA and debuted this year. We should note for the record though that 6th rounder Jack McGeary was paid as if he was a low-1st rounder and failed pretty spectacularly here.
e. Yes: 20th rounder Jeff Mandel was a long-serving org arm at AA and AAA. 11th rounder Bill Rhinehart was looking like a find, appearning on Nats system prospect lists for a while and getting to AAA before getting flipped for Jonny Gomes.
f. Yes: 28th rounder Boomer Whiting made it to Syracuse before getting released in 2011. 48th rounder (!) Kyle Gunderson was flipped for Logan Kensing in 2009 and made it to Miami/Florida’s AAA squad before getting released.

2007: Success: despite the 1st round failures and the McGeary disaster, the breadth of success in the other categories and the production of the remaining guys weighs out.

2008: Owner: Lerner. President: Kasten. GM: Bowden. Scouting Director: Brown. Assistant GM/VP, Baseball Operations: Rizzo. Drafting 9th overall. Total Bonus $ spent: $4,766,500

a. No: as is well documented, the Nats failed to sign 1st round pick Aaron Crow.
b. No/Inc: 2nd round pick Destin Hood has already passed through Rule-5 waivers once, but has found himself in 2014 and is hitting great for Syracuse (2014’s AAA line: .308/.353/.502). It does make one wonder if he’s worth adding to the 40-man once the season is over to keep him; he’s finishing his 7th pro year and is in line for minor league free agency.
c. Yes: 3rd rounder Danny Espinosa has his critics, but he’s at least a MLB backup or possibly more. 5th rounder Adrian Nieto has stuck with the White Sox after getting plucked in the Rule-5 draft last year and hasn’t been half bad.
d. Yes: 10th rounder Tommy Milone has shown his capabilities as a MLB starter. d. 6th-10th: hope for at least one player to reach the MLB level. 6th rounder Paul Demny remains in the system (on the D/L in Harrisburg) but doesn’t seem like he’ll go much higher at this point.
e. Yes: 16th rounder Tyler Moore has put in meaningful at-bats for the Nats for a few years now. And 19th rounder Steve Lombardozzi looks to be a solid utility/backup infielder in this league for years. Lastly I wonder if the team gave up on 15th rounder J.P. Ramirez too soon; he was paid like a 2nd round pick but was released prior to his MLFA period. He may have only made it to high-A, but his last season was somewhat decent.
f. No: as far as I can tell, nobody of note came in rounds 20 or above from this draft.

2008: Failure: How would you judge this draft? We failed to sign the first rounder, which for me is a huge negative. The second rounder may or may not ever debut in the majors, which is also for me a huge negative because of the huge prevalence of 1st and 2nd rounders on MLB rosters. But we got four (5 counting Nieto) other MLBers out of the rest of the draft, including some very deep-dive picks that you rarely find (Moore and Lombardozzi, aside from Peacock, are the two lowest round picks to ever make it to the majors for this team).

2009: Owner: Lerner. President: Kasten. GM: Rizzo. Scouting Director: Brown. Drafting 1st overall. Total Bonus $ spent: $18,806,000

a. Yes: no arguing about either first round pick here: both Stephen Strasburg and Drew Storen have pitched at all-star levels in their careers.
b. No: 2nd Rounder Jeff Kobernus may have made his MLB debut, but he’s nowhere close to being a “regular” in the majors right now and doens’t seem to be trending that way either.
c. No: 3rd round pick Trevor Holder was a gross over-draft (albeit with known reasons; the team committed an *awful* lot of money to the first two guys on this list) and was released in 2013. 4th rounder A.J. Morris looked quite promising for us, was flipped in the Gorzelanny deal, and this year is pitching effectively for Pittsburgh’s AAA squad after being taken in the minor league Rule-5 portion last off-season. And the Nats failed to sign their 5th rounder. So even if Morris pans out as a MLB-capable player, he’s doing it for someone else.
d. Yes: 9th round pick Taylor Jordan was effective for the team last year and may yet figure in the team’s plans despite his mysterious D/L trip right now. And 6th round pick Michael Taylor has rocketed up the prospect lists for this team, is crushing AA pitching right now, is on the team’s 40-man roster and may very well get a look as 2015’s starting center fielder.
e. Yes: 12th rounder Nathan Karns made the org look quite intelligent when he gave spot starts in 2013 after rocketing up the farm system after finally recovering from arm issues. I wonder if the success they had with Karns was the first impetus for Rizzo to take more gambles on high-end-but-injured arms. 13th rounder Patrick Lehman has bounced around as an org arm for years. 11th rounder Juston Bloxom played a couple years in AA before getting released this year. 16th rounder Sean Nicol is splitting time between AA and AAA this year. Finally, I wanted to note something I never knew before studying this: the Nats drafted Marcus Strohman in the 18th round out of HS; this is the same Strohman who went in the first round three years later to Toronto and who is currently holding down a rotation spot for the playoff-pushing Blue Jays. Wow. He’s listed as a SS on the draft-tracker but clearly is a MLB-calibre starter.
f. Yes: 22nd rounder Danny Rosenbaum has been Syracuse’s “ace” for three seasons now. And a slew of guys drafted in the 20s stuck around for years as middle relievers (Mitchell Clegg, Matt Swynenberg, Evan Bronson, Rob Wort, and Shane McCatty). You just can’t ask for more out of your picks in rounds 20-30.

2009: Success: I’ll take a couple of misses in the 2nd and 3rd rounds given the amount of talent they picked up in the middle and late rounds. Great draft. 6 guys who have debuted in the majors with at least another one likely coming soon.

Note: from 2010 onwards, most of the judgement calls are still “in progress.” We’ll use projections and “small sample sizes” to pass judgement. It is what it is. Feel free to criticize in the comments about using projections and national pundit scouting reports to make judgements.

2010: Owner: Lerner. President: Kasten. GM: Rizzo. Scouting Director: Kris Kline. Drafting 1st overall. Total Bonus $ spent: $11,413,200

a. Yes: 1st rounder Bryce Harper has turned into everything the hype suggested. Fun fact; when he went on an rehab assignment in Potomac, he was the 2nd youngest guy on the roster. Remember that when you criticize the guy for not being better than he already is: if he was “playing by the rules,” he’d be jsut finishing his junior year of college.
b. No/Inc: 2nd rounder Sammy Solis has been one injury issue after another. He missed all of 2012 with Tommy John, came back slowly in 2013, but now sits on the AA D/L with another “elbow” issue. He was protected on the 40-man roster last fall, but you have to wonder what’s to come of him. He’s finishing his 5th pro season and he’s got exactly one start above A-Ball.
c. Yes/Inc: 4th rounder A.J. Cole was paid like a late first rounder, and after some struggles he’s really come onto the scene this year. He was already really young for AA and “solved” it, and is now in AAA holding his own. The other guys in this category are less impressive: both Rick Hague and Jason Martinson are repeating AA and not really hitting well enough to push for promotions. This could be a side-effect of the huge amount of money committed to Harper and Cole.
d. Yes: 9th round pick Aaron Barrett went from unknown/unrecognized prospect to the Nats 40-man roster last fall to being lights-out middle reliever in the major league pen this year. As a 9th round college senior pick. 8th rounder Matthew Grace may be next; after toiling as a mediocre starter, he became a reliever in 2013 and has been lights out in AA and AAA this year. And he’s not just a LOOGY: 56 IP in 33 appearances and he’s given up just 6 ER in that time.
e. Yes: 15th round pick David Freitas, after getting traded to Oakland for Kurt Suzuki, got traded again to Baltimore and now is in AAA. 12th round pick Robbie Ray has made his MLB debut for Detroit after going over in the Doug Fister deal. 11th rounder Neil Holland toils in the Harrisburg pen admirably.
f. Yes: 23rd rounder Colin Bates and 26th rounder Christopher Manno both are in the Harrisburg pen. 22nd rounder Cameron Selik made it to AA before hitting his ceiling and being released earlier this year. And 32nd rounder Randolph Oduber is a starting OF in Potomac with decent splits and a shot of moving up.

2010: Success: It may have been a no-brainer to take Harper, and it may have been an example of the “checkbook” winning in their picks of Cole and Ray, but you have to hand it to this team; they bought two high-end prep guys out of their college and they’re both looking like huge successes. And they got a MLB servicable reliever out of a college senior sign who they paid just $35,000 in bonus money. Great work.

2011: Owner: Lerner. President/GM: Rizzo. Scouting Director Kline. Drafting 6th overall. Total Bonus $ spent: $11,325,000

a. Yes: 1st rounder Anthony Rendon was on everyone’s “all star snub” lists this year, while their other 1st rounder Alex Meyer remains one of the top pitching prospects in the game and seems likely to debut later this year. Their supp-1st rounder Brian Goodwin remains on every pundit’s prospect lists even if he seemingly has been passed on the organizational “future starting Center-fielder” depth chart. There’s no chance the team leaves him exposed in the upcoming rule-5 draft, so he’ll have at least three more years to prove he belongs.
b. n/a: forfeited for Adam LaRoche signing.
c. No/Inc: Right now our 3rd through 5th picks are looking iffy; 4th rounder Matthew Purke was paid like an upper first rounder and has been a massive disappointment. Right now he’s recovering from Tommy John and faces an uncertain future. 4th rounder Kylin Turnbull has gotten lit up in high-A this year, his second crack at the league. 5th rounder Matt Skole may be the most promising of the bunch; he crushed 27 homers in his first season of full-season ball only to miss all of 2013 because of a freak injury. Can Skole continue developing and make the majors on a full-time basis? Can Purke at this point?
d. Yes: With the call-up of 6th rounder Taylor Hill earlier this year, this category is met. Which is good because the rest of the 6th-10th rounders from this year are struggling. Two are already released/retired, one is MIA and the lone remaining active player (Brian Dupra) is struggling as a starter/swing-man in AA. But Hill is a huge win; a college senior draftee on minimal bonus rocketing through the minors and forcing his way onto the 25-man roster.
e. Yes/Inc: It is far too early to fully judge this category, but it is looking promising despite the fact that the team failed to sign SIX of its ten picks beween the 11th and 20th round. 11th rounder Caleb Ramsey is already in AA. 16th rounder Deion Williams is on the mound (not a SS as in the Draft Tracker) and is struggling in short-A. 18th rounder Nick Lee is struggling in Potomac this year but has shown a huge arm and seems like he’ll eventually convert to loogy (especially considering his undersized stature); I can see Lee making it far as a matchup lefty reliever with swing-and-miss stuff. The lone failure at this point is 12th rounder Blake Monar, sort of inexplicably released after a decent 2012 season in Short-A.
f. Yes: 30th round pick Bryan Harper earned his way to Harrisburg. 45th round college senior pick Richie Mirowski also made it to AA, where he wasn’t half bad last year, though at the moment he’s back in Potomac. And there’s three other players drafted in the 20th or higher who are active on Potomac’s roster this year and who may get moved up. Decent production out of the bottom of this draft so far.

2011: Projected Success: As discussed before, I believe the selection of Rendon was a “no-brainer” based on a unique set of circumstances that occured on draft day, but credit the management team for having the stones to pick him when other GMs didn’t. I’m sure the Mariners (especially) would like a re-do on that draft (they picked 2nd overall, got soft-tossing local product Danny Hultzen, who was sidelined last year with all sorts of shoulder issues and is no sure bet to ever make it back. They rolled the dice with Purke and so far seem to be losing, but Purke was himself a 1-1 talent at one point (remember, he had his $4M+ deal with Texas pulled thanks to MLB-stewardship at the time) and was probably worth the risk. I’d like to see Skole reach the majors in some capacity before declaring this draft a full success.

Note: from here onwards, everything is a projection and is based on scouting the stat lines. I’m going to sound negative where others sound positive and vice versa. Hey, its better than writing nothing.

2012: Owner: Lerner. President/GM: Rizzo. Scouting Director Kline. Drafting 16th overall. Total Bonus $ spent: $4,503,500

a. Yes/inc: 1st rounder Lucas Giolito (so far) has shown himself to be at full speed post TJ surgery and is mostly in the top 10-15 of every professional scouting pundit’s list for best prospect in the entirety of the minors. He’s got a #1 starter ceiling, a huge frame and three plus pitches. He’s projecting to be everything you’d hope for from an upper first rounder.
b. No/inc: It is hard to squint at 2nd rounder Tony Renda at this point and project him as a future “MLB regular.” Sure he’s hitting .297 in Potomac, and sure his numbers at the plate have not varied much in his three pro seasons. Unfortunately he’s vastly undersized and he has no power in a time where pro middle infielders are expected to provide serious pop. Maybe he can forge a career like Jamey Carroll or like a Jose Altuve, but the odds are against him. I don’t mean to discount the guy because he’s 5’8″ but we all know there’s a significant bias in the industry towards undersized guys. Heck, a pitcher is considered “short” if he isn’t 6’2″ these days.
c. No/inc: So far the guys picked 3rd-5th are also struggling. 3rd rounder Brett Mooneyham‘s struggles are well documented here. 4th rounder Brandon Miller continues to show great power but has missed much of this season with a hamstring injury (he’s on rehab in the GCL as we speak). Lastly 5th rounder Spencer Keiboom suffered a blown UCL that basically cost him the whole 2013 season. He’s got great numbers in low-A this year but is two years too old for the league. Keiboom’s talents more centered on his defense than his bat, so he may still push forward as a future backup catcher. But until he does, this category falls in the “no” side.
d. Maybe/inc: The leading hope for some MLB success out of our 6th-10th round picks right now resides in one of two middle relievers: 7th round pick Robert Benincasa or 9th round pick Derek Self. You never know; one of these guys could turn into the next Aaron Barrett. 8th round SS Stephen Perez made the all-star team this year in Potomac and could feature as a future utility infielder. The team has already released its 6th round pick Hayden Jennings, and their 10th rounder (local Rockville product Craig Manual) was a college senior catcher who is backing up other catchers in the system for the time being). He may continue to hang around but unless he gets a starting gig he’s going to get replaced by someone newer.
e. Yes/inc: 17th rounder Blake Schwartz has already made it to AA, where he struggled and he now sits back in Potomac (where he was great last year, go figure). 11th rounder Brian Rauh got a spot-start in AA last year but has bounced in and out of the Potomac rotation this year. 16th rounder Ronald Pena is working his way off injury but faces a long road to move up thanks to a lack of swing-and-miss stuff. The team has already released four of its 11th-20th round picks; the remaining out-field players (12th rounder Carlos Lopez and 19th rounder Bryan Lippincott) both seem to face long odds as college senior draftees still residing in the low minors to even make it up to AA at this point. To be fair, Lopez missed most of 2013 with an unknown injury, so we’ll give him a slight pass. Lippincott sits in XST right now.
f. No/inc: 33rd rounder Mike McQuillan has hung around and currently serves as a utility guy/bench player for Potomac. A couple of relievers remain on squads: 29th rounder Leonard Hollins is hurt but is on a full-season squad, and 30th rounder Robert Orlan was with Hagerstown to start the season but is back in Auburn. The rest of the 20th round and up guys features carnage; eight college senior draftees already released to go along with 10 unsigned (mostly high schoolers) picks in the later rounds. One unsigned pick looks interesting; all-american freshman UNC player Skye Bolt may be a big-time 2015 draft pick. But otherwise, I’m predicting that we dont’ get even a AA player out of the last 20 rounds of this draft at this point.

2012: Projected Failure: Frankly, this is looking like it may be a one player draft. At this point, I don’t think you can look at *any* other player in this draft and project even a bench/fringe 25-man roster guy besides Giolito. Now ask yourself: if Giolito fulfills expectations and becomes an “ace,” a top 15-20 arm in the majors while the rest of this draft basically becomes high-A and AA filler, does that change your opinion of the draft success/failure?

2013: Owner: Lerner. President/GM: Rizzo. Scouting Director Kline. Drafting 30th overall. Total Bonus $ spent: $2,678,100

a. n/a: No 2013 first rounder thanks to the supurfluous signing of Rafael Soriano. As noted at the time, the Nats missed out on players like Sean Manaea, Ryan Stanek or Ian Clarkin, all of whom were available at the time of their lost 1st rounder. Manaea in particular has flourished, rising up prospect list charts and sporting a healthy K/9 rate in high-A this year. I’d like to call this in and among itself a failure (given my reservations about paying for saves in general), but have to admit that Soriano has been pretty durn good this year.
b. No/inc: 2nd rounder Jake Johansen thus far has not lived up to advance billing in his first year in full-season ball. He’s averaging just 4.5 innings per outing and sports a 5.00 ERA and less than a K/inning. I can understand the difficult adjustment to pro ball, but I don’t get how his vaunted velocity and size combination aren’t resulting in more swing-and-miss. He’s given no indication that he can avoid what scouts have been saying all along (that he’s destined for the bullpen), he’s way too wild and way too hittable.
c. Yes/inc: the Nats collection of 3rd rounder Drew Ward, 4th rounder Nick Pivetta and now especially 5th rounder Austin Voth are making this management team look very smart. All Voth has done since forcing his promotion to High-A is give up 10 hits and ONE earned run in 33 innings over five starts. That’s just ridiculous. And he’s doing it while maintaining a 36/5 K/BB ratio. There’s zero reason for him to still be in Potomac at this point. I don’t know what Voth’s ceiling is, but its getting pushed.
d. No/inc: Thanks to the new CBA’s rules, most 6th-10th rounders are throw-away/college senior picks these days. So it’ll be awfully hard to depend on one of them turning into a 25-man roster guy. The best bet out of this draft will be having either 6th rounder Cody Gunter or 7th rounder James Yezzo eventually matriculating to the majors. The other guys in this category were 15k bonus college seniors, one of whom (9th rounder Jake Joyce has *already* been released). Do we think either Gunter or Yezzo projects as a major leaguer? Not right now: Gunter’s struggling in short-A for the 2nd year in a row and Yezzo is an undersized 1B showing little power.
e. Maybe/inc: Right now the pickings for the guys taken 11th-20th look pretty slim too. Three were senior signs who have already been released and we failed to sign our 16th round pick Willie Allen (though can’t fault the Nats for that: doing research on him for last year’s draft review showed all sorts of inconsistencies with him, including whether he’s even still playing baseball in college). But 11th rounder John Simms is looking like a great find; he’s already in the AA rotation and holding his own (though you could argue it was out of need, not performance). Among those left, 10th rounder Brandon Middleton and 15th rounder Isaac Ballou are starting and playing well in Hagerstown, 12th rounder Andrew Cooper is strugging in low-A, 13th rounder John Costa has yet to debut for the team thanks to TJ surgery, and 17th rounder Geoffrey Perrott was a senior catcher who got a grand total of 13 at-bats in 2013 and has remained in XST so far thisyear, perhaps to serve as a bullpen catcher for others remaining in Viera and perhaps because he was hurt most of last year and may still be recovering. If Simms continues to rise and we get a couple more longer-lasting prospects out of this crew, we’ll convert this to a success.
f. Maybe/Inc: The Nats picked seven college seniors in the 21st round or above and so far they’re all with Hagerstown. Middle infielders Cody Dent (22nd rounder) and Willie Medina (31st rounder) both hit in the .220s last year, are hitting in the .220s (or worse) this year, and seem like they may not last the season. However the pitchers in this bunch are looking better and better. 28th rounder Joey Webb has a 2.53 ERA, 30th rounder Ryan Ullmann has as 3.10 ERA and got a high-A up-and-back call-up, and 34th rounder Jake Walsh dominated Low-A and earned a call-up to Potomac. Only 29th rounder Michael Sylvestri seems to be in trouble among these senior signs; after struggling in Short-A last year, he gave up a ton of runs in 6 mid-relief outings and is currently in re-assignment purgatory. What of the non senior-signs? 24th round pick Matthew Derosier is struggling in short-A and 23rd round outfielder Garrett Gordon seems like he’s a bench player in Auburn. But a revelation may be 25th round prep draft pick Travis Ott. He holds a 2.10 ERA through 6 starts in Auburn despite being quite young for the league. So, the trend seems good that we’ll get value out of the bottom part of this draft.

2013: Projected Failure: Sorry to say; no first rounder, a middle reliever out of your 2nd rounder, perhaps a 5th starter out of the 3-5 rounds, and some org filler from the bottom of the draft? How many players from this draft do you realistically project to make the majors?

2014: Owner: Lerner. President/GM: Rizzo. Scouting Director Kline. Drafting 18th overall. Total Bonus $ spent: $4,149,900

a. Maybe/inc: 1st rounder Erick Fedde may project as a MLB rotation guy, but he’s not projecting as an ace level arm. So if he comes back from surgery 100%, if he keeps moving up the chain, if he makes the majors and if he has an impact we’ll give this a yes. Lots of ifs.
b. n/a: we failed to sign our 2nd rounder Andrew Suarez.
c. Maybe/inc: The hopes here fall on 3rd rounder Jakson Reetz and 4th rounder Robbie Dickey, since our 5th rounder was a senior lefty out of non-baseball powerhouse Duke. How do we dream on Reetz and Dickey? Maybe Reetz turns into our next Derek Norris while Dickey turns into the next Austin Voth. Lets hope so, because both so far have had rather inauspicious starts in the GCL (Reetz batting .220 and Dickey posting an ERA in the 12s). To be fair Reetz is a kid and Dickey isn’t much older, so we have a long way to go before passing true judgement.
d. No/inc: We failed to sign the 8th round pick Austin Byler (and from reading the tea leaves, it didn’t seem like we were ever even close). Our 7th, 8th and 10th round picks were low-bonus college seniors with little hope of advancing. So this category falls squarely on the shoulders of 6th rounder Austin Williams, who looks ok so far in Short-A.
e. Far too Early: most of these guys who did sign are 15 games into short seasons.
f. Far too Early: most of these guys who did sign are 15 games into short seasons.

2014: Not promising: An injured first rounder, no 2nd rounder, really just a handful of non senior-signs elsewhere in the draft. As I opined in the previous post discussion, I just don’t like the looks of this class.

So. 5200 words later, I think I actually like my guidelines. I think though that the new CBA forces teams into making a bunch of “throw-away” picks in the 6th-10th rounds, so my criteria needs to be adjusted downward for that category in the last few years. Otherwise I think it holds.

What say you?

Editor’s Post-posting thoughts. Based on the analysis above, the franchise has 5 successes and 5 failures (or projected failures) in ten drafts. After up and down drafts the first four years, we had three straight successes in 2009-2011, but now I feel like we’ve had three successive failures from 2012 onwards. Here’s a sobering thought about those successes and failures: lets talk about bonus money spent.

In the 5 drafts I call successes, the team spent (chronologically): $3,990,500, $7,619,300, $18,806,000, $11,413,200 and $11,325,000 in bonus money.
In the 5 drafts i’m calling failures/projected failures: $5,222,000, $4,766,500, $4,503,500, $2,678,100, $4,149,900

See a pattern? With the exception of the unbelievable 2005 draft, the Nats have had successes when spending big money and failures when they don’t. Maybe its just that simple.

I think, to be fair, it is also worth nothing the three distinct “eras” of Nats draft philosophy:

Era 1: 2005-2008: MLB hamstrung budgets and Lerner penny pinching era. 2 successes, 2 failures.
Era 2: 2009-2011: Lerner’s realize the Tampa Bay way: spending through the draft is the best way to acquire talent. 3 successes
Era 3: 2012-present: the new CBA spells out draconian draft bonus policies. 3 failures.

Era 1 may be just the way it used to go; sometimes you’d get wins in the draft, other times you’d strike out. Era 2 was the glory years of Nats drafting, though the cynic may point out that picking three consensus 1-1 talents and spending 8 figures in bonus money wasn’t that hard. Era 3 is more troubling: why has this management team not done better in the CBA/limited bonus era?

Written by Todd Boss

July 23rd, 2014 at 10:52 am

Posted in Draft

Tagged with aaron barrett, aaron crow, adam carr, adam laroche, adrian nieto, aj cole, aj morris, alex meyer, andrew cooper, andrew suarez, anthony rendon, austin byler, austin voth, austin williams, bill rhinehart, blake monar, blake schwartz, bommer whiting, brad meyers, brad peacock, brandon middleton, brandon miller, brett logan, brett mooneyham, brian dupra, brian goodwin, brian rauh, bryan harper, bryan lippincott, bryce harper, caleb ramsey, cameron selik, carlos lopez, chris marrero, christopher manno, cody dent, cody gunter, cole kimball, colin bates, colten willems, corey vanallen, craig manual, craig stammen, dana brown, danny espinosa, danny hultzen, danny rosenbaum, david freitas, deion williams, derek norris, derek self, destin hood, doug fister, drew storen, drew ward, erick fedde, erik arneson, evan bronson, garrett gordon, geoffrey perrott, gio gonzalez, hassan pena, hayden jennings, ian clarkin, isaac ballou, jack mcgeary, jake johansen, jake joyce, jake smolinski, jake walsh, jakson reetz, james yezzo, jamey carroll, jason martinson, jeff kobernus, jeff mandel, jim bowden, joey webb, john costa, john lannan, john simms, jonny gomes, jordan zimmermann, jose altuve, josh smoker, jp ramirez, justin maxwell, juston bloxom, kris kline, kurt suzuki, kyle gunderson, kylin turnbull, leonard hollins, logan kensing, lucas giolito, marco estrada, marcus strohman, matt skole, matt swynenberg, matthew derosier, matthew grace, matthew purke, michael burgess, michael sylvestri, michael taylor, mike mcquillan, mike rizzo, mitchell clegg, nathan karns, neil holland, nick lee, nick pivetta, patrick lehman, patrick mccoy, paul demny, rafael soriano, randolph oduber, richie mirowski, rick hague, rob wort, robbie dickey, robbie ray, robert benincasa, robert orlan, ronald pena, ross detwiler, ryan butcher, ryan stanek, ryan ullmann, ryan zimmerman, sammy solis, sean black, sean manaea, sean nicol, shane mccatty, skye bolt, spencer kieboom, stan kasten, stephen englund, stephen perez, stephen strasburg, steve lombardozzi, steven souza, taylor hill, taylor jordan, ted lerner, tim pahuta, tom gorzelanny, tommy milone, tony renda, travis ott, trevor holder, tyler moore, vinny castilla, willie allen, willie medina, zech zinicola

Nats Major & Minor League Pitching Staffs vs Predicted 2014 edition

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At the end of the 2013 season, I put out a slew of season rotational reviews and then predicted where everyone would start in 2014.

We’re a month into the minor league full-seasons and the rotations are already mostly established (with D/L trips and slight movement as noted here). So lets do a little navel gazing and take a look at my predictions versus the actuals before we lose too much identity with the makeup of these four full-season pitching staffs from opening day.

As always, Luke Erickson and nationalsprospects.com, the Nats Big Board and the tireless work by “SpringfieldFan” is much appreciated here.

MLB Dec 2013 Prediction

MLB Rotation: Strasburg, Gonzalez (L), Zimmermann, Fister, Detwiler (L)
MLB Bullpen: Soriano, Storen, Clippard, Stammen, Blevens (L), Ohlendorf, Roark
MLB out of Org: Haren, Duke (L), Abad (L), Krol (L), HRodriguez

MLB April 2014 Actual Opening Day Staff

MLB Rotation: Strasburg, Gonzalez (L), Zimmermann, Roark, Jordan
MLB Bullpen: Soriano, Clippard, Storen, Stammen, Blevens (L), Detwiler, Barrett
MLB D/L: Fister, Ohlendorf, Davis
MLB notables Out of Organization: Haren, Duke (L), Abad (L), Krol (L), HRodriguez

MLB Discussion: A late spring injury to Doug Fister obsoleted the 5th starter competition, giving both Tanner Roark and Taylor Jordan spots (for now; Roark has “won” the 5th spot thanks to a better April now that Fister is ready to come back). The biggest news during spring training was the Ross Detwiler “demotion” to the bullpen, but the Aaron Barrett victory over the likes of Christian Garcia and Ryan Mattheus was also notable. Injuries to Ross Ohlendorf and Erik Davis cleared out bullpen competition, and an early spring training chest injury to Mattheus also made it difficult for him to break camp with the big league club.

Nothing new here: we’ve talked this to death already 🙂 Lets move onto the four full-season minor league squads.

AAA Dec 2013 Prediction

AAA Rotation: Rosenbaum (L), Jordan, Karns, Young, MLFA or two
AAA Bullpen: Barrett, Mattheus, Garcia, Davis, Cedeno (L), Robertson (L), Delcarmen, Alfaro, Stange, Herron (AA?)
AAA Release candidates: Meyers, Lehman
AAA out of Org: Maya, Tatusko, Clay, Mandel, Torra, Broadway, Crotta, Lowe, Kimball, Accardo, Bramhall, Romero (L)

AAA Apr 2014 Actual opening day

AAA Rotation: Rosenbaum (L), Tatusko, Treinen, Hill, Poveda
AAA Bullpen: Mattheus, Garcia, Cedeno (L), Robertson (L), Delcarmen, Madrigal, Roenicke, Stange
AAA D/L: Meyers, Davis (mlb 60 day d/l)
AAA cut/released/FA:Young, Broadway, Maya, Mandel, Clay, Kimball, Crotta, Torra, Lowe, Crotta, Accardo, Bramhall, Romero (L)
AAA Missing: MGonzalez (L), Laffey

AAA Discussion

Technically I got 2/5ths of the AAA rotation right to start the year: Rosenbaum and a MLFA in the form of Omar Poveda (technically an acquisition but still…). Karns was traded to obtain our (now) starting catcher Jose Lobaton. Jordan of course started the year in the majors, but I think he’ll end up back here for a good portion of the season. Young was granted his release and immediately signed in Seattle to fill one of their rotation spots. The team resigned its own MLFA in Ryan Tatusko to return and he seems set to be in the rotation for now, but he’s more of a swing-man/org arm and he likely makes way for a starter when needed. The big surprise is the unexpected promotion of Taylor Hill; he featured in AA but I thought he’d start out there. Brad Meyers stays in the organization but is “missing” for the time being: he may be headed for the D/L but as of this writing has no assignment.

In the month since opening day, we’ve seen both Mike Gonzalez and Aaron Laffey make their way to Syracuse to cover for the subsequently injured Rosenbaum and promoted MLB-bullpen-covering reliever of the day (Cedeno, Treinen, Barrett and Mattheus have all already spent time on the shuttle between Washington and Syracuse).

In the bullpen; our prediction looks decently correct; 6 of the 8 Syracuse opening day members were called. The outliers: MLFA signings Warner Madrigal and Josh Roenicke. Predicted members Erik Davis instead sits on the mlb 60-day D/L, and Alfaro is in the AA squad. Pat Lehman sits on the AA D/L for now.

AAA “Star Power” summary: So, as has become typical AAA isn’t so much about finishing off prospects as it is about holding spare parts. In the rotation we had zero 40-man roster players at this point, and really just Blake Treinen features as a potential up-and-comer (with possible future apologies to Taylor Hill of course …). The bullpen has just three 40-man roster arms (a loogy in Xavier Cedeno, and two injury reclamation projects in Christian Garcia and Ryan Mattheus). Eventually we should see some culling of this roster when the team needs to find spots for Gonzalez and Laffey in particular. Syracuse fans may not be getting the best pitching staff out there to cheer on.

AA Dec 2013 Prediction

AA Rotation: Cole, Hill, Solis (L), Schwartz, Treinen (AAA?)
AA Swingmen: Gilliam (swingman)
AA Bullpen: Benincasa, Mirowski, Holland, Swynenberg, Grace (L), Bates, KPerez, Spann (L)
AA release candidates: Perry, Selik, Demny, RMartin
AA out of Org: Broderick, Ray, McCoy, Frias, Holder, Bray

AA Apr 2014 Actual

AA Rotation: Cole, Schwartz, Rivero (L), Gilliam, Purke (L)
AA spot starts/swingman: Dupra
AA bullpen: Herron, Holland, Grace (L), Mirowski, Alfaro, Bates, Espino
AA dl: Demny, RMartin, Solis (L), Lehman, Perry
AA cut/released/FAs: Broderick, Ray (traded), Bray (L), McCoy (L), Karns (traded), Frias, Holder, Selik, Swynenberg (ret)
AA missing: KPerez

AA Discussion

We got some of the rotation correct; A.J. Cole and Blake Schwartz. We technically got Hill and Treinen correct … just under-valued where the organization would put them. And lastly Sammy Solis would be in this group had he not suffered a late-spring back injury; for the time being he’s in XST but is on the “missing” list here. I had Rob Gilliam as the AA swing man anyway; he would likely make way for Solis once he comes back. The two additional names are Matthew Purke (who surprisingly to me starts the year in AA) and newly acquired Felipe Rivero.

We got most of the bullpen right: 5 of 8 predicted. The outliers: Ryan Perry remains in the organization but sits on the D/L; personally I thought he may get released. Gabriel Alfaro was a MLFA who slots into the bullpen, as was Zach Jackson (who should have been in AAA to begin with and has already been promoted). Benincasa starts in high-A again and Gilliam is pushed into the rotation. Recent acquisition KPerez remain missing, along with several other middle relief arms. Spann started the year two levels lower than I thought he should have in Low-A but currently sits in Potomac.

A couple of long-serving names are now out of the organization; I was surprised to see Cameron Selik in particular being released; I always liked him for some reason. Its tough being a middle relief RHP with so many of them getting drafted year after year.

AA Star Power summary: A few very important names to the organization sit in AA: top pitching prospect A.J. Cole sits here and will be looking to push for a AAA promotion. Sammy Solis had rumblings of being turned into a Loogy in Spring Training; now he just needs to get healthy. Matthew Purke’s destiny remains at a cross-roads thanks to a horrible start to his 2014 AA campaign. And newly acquired/40-man member Felipe Rivero sits here, hoping to show as a decent bounty for the Nathan Karns trade. These three guys all sit on the Nats fast-depleting 40-man roster … and they represent 33% of ALL the 40-man rostered players in the Eastern League.

High-A Dec 2013 Prediction

High-A rotation: Purke (L), Anderson, Mooneyham (L), Encarnacion, Bacus, Turnbull (bullpen?) (L)
High-A swingmen: RPena (swingman), Dickson (swingman)
High-A bullpen: Wort (AA?), Holt (AA?), Fischer, Henke, Mendez, Harper (L), Davis, Thomas (L)
High-A release candidates: Dupra, Rauh (starter?), Meza (L)
High-A out of org: Pineyro, Hawkins

High-A Apr 2014 Actuals

High-A Rotation: Rauh, Rpena, Mooneyham (L), Encarnacion, Lee
High-A spot starts/swingman: Dickson, Simms, Spann (L)
High-A bullpen: Benincasa, Henke, Harper (L), Mendez, Self,
High-A cut/released/FA: Smoker (L), Broderick, Ray (traded), Holt, Wort, Applebee (ret)
High-A missing: Fischer

High-A Discussion

I thought the team would start Purke in high-A again; instead he is struggling in AA. I thought Dixon Anderson was old enough to merit the move to high-A; instead he still sits in Hagerstown repeating the level. And Kyle Turnbull remains on the low-A D/L for now. Otherwise the High-A rotation prediction looks pretty good: we hit on Mooneyham and Encarnacion, we hit on RPena and Dickson and Bacus as swingmen or starters (they all now sit in those roles in some capacity or another thanks to injuries).

The bullpen predictions are all over the place; both Wort and Holt were released, not pushed higher. Fischer remains missing. Benincasa is lower than I thought he’d be. Dupra and Rauh (who I thought were in jeopardy of getting cut) not only have kept their spots but have been pushing for promotion, which is great to see. It does go to show that its kind of difficult to do these predictions the lower you go.

High-A Star Power summary: Honestly there’s not a ton of big-time prospect names on the High-A staff. Mooneyham was a high draft pick but has more or less struggled thus far in his pro career. Encarnacion could be an up-and-comer in an organization that has struggled to develop its DSL graduate talent lately. Otherwise the Potomac staff is filled with mid- to late-round college draft arms, older for the level at this point, and likely playing for their careers this year thanks to the higher-end talent sitting in the Hagerstown rotation right now (read further).

Low-A Dec 2013 Prediction

Low-A rotation: Giolito, Johansen, Voth, Lee (high-A?) (L), Orlan (L)
Low-A swingmen: Suero (swingman), Selsor (swingman),
Low-A bullpen: Self (high-A?), Ullmann, Pivetta, Simms, Hollins, Napoli (L), Bafidis (L), Valdez, Walsh (L), Aries
Low-A release candidates: Joyce, Waterman, Boyden
Low-A out of org: McKenzie, Smith

Low-A Apr 2014 Actuals

Low A Rotation: Giolito, Johansen, Voth, Pivetta, Anderson,
Low A spot starts/swingman: Suero, Anderson,
Low A bullpen: JThomas (L), Walsh (L), Cooper, Hollins, Ullmann, Silvestre (L), Sylvestri, Simms, Spann
Low A dl: Turnbull, CDavis, Estevez,
Low A cut/released/FA: Meza (L), Pineyro (traded), Selsor, Boyden, Waterman, Aries
Low A missing: Orlan, Napoli, Bafidis, Aries, Joyce, Valdez

Discussion

The big three starters in Hagerstown were easily predicted (Giolito, Johansen and Voth). Lee and Anderson switched places in my predictions (both starters, wrong teams) and Orlan is stuck in XST. Pivetta was pushed to the rotation after pitching in relief last year. And then a slew of the Hagerstown arms are participating in a “dual starter” system where by the starters generally have been going 5 and the relievers/spot starters going the other 4 each night. So the team is getting lots of looks at these pitchers on an extended basis.

This system means there’s really not a “bullpen” being developed in Low-A, which is just as well; I’d rather have 8-10 starter candidates to choose from for higher levels than just 4-5 with guys already being pushed to being short-inning relievers in Low-A.

Unfortunately, we see that a slew of guys have already been cut here who appeared on last year’s rosters. And, there’s a ton more players currently sitting in XST waiting to compete with June 2014 draft picks in the short-season squads. Lots of churn here.

Low-A Star Power summary: look no further than the big three starters: they represent 1st, 2nd and 5th round draft picks. Throw in Pivetta (a 4th rounder) and the team has a ton of vested interest in this rotation.

Phew; that’s a lot of players. I can’t wait to see how the staffs work out this year. I don’t expect much in the way of commenting on this post; it was one of those drafts sitting in my admin screen that I thought i’d finish off and publish to get it out of the way 🙂

Written by Todd Boss

May 7th, 2014 at 10:20 am

Minor League Rotation Review – April 2014

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Austin Voth was great last year and has been good this year. Photo via mlbdirt

We’re a month into the minor league season and nearly five turns through each minor league system rotation, so lets take a look to see how our starters are doing.

As with the major league rotation review, I’ve assigned grade letters to roughly judge each start done by our minor league staff, and then i’ve tacked on their overall stats for context. Note that I generally give grades to those that get the starts in games, as well as those who pitch “starter length” outings. You’ll see this much more frequently in the low-A section, where Hagerstown clearly has a “two-starter” system going for many of its guys; one guy will throw 5 innings, then the next guy throws 4. So nearly the entire Hagerstown roster is getting “starter grades” right now. I should also caveat that this analysis is “scouting the box score” analysis; I’ve not had a chance to see any of these guys in person, so I can’t comment on the luck factor involved with anyone (stats versus ability) other than inference analysis between ERA and FIP.

For each team I’ll list the current rotation as best as I can make it, then have a second section where we list the guys with spot-starts or who were in the rotation but are no longer (D/L trips, promoted, demoted, etc). Then we’ll discuss, and then list those guys who are pushing for promotions and those guys who are in jeopardy of getting demoted (or, worse, released).

(Note: I wouldn’t be able to do this data tracking or this post without the great daily work by Luke Erickson at www.nationalsprospects.com.) All stats here are as of 5/2/14, which means I grabbed one May start’s worth of stats for a couple of guys here and there.

AAA/Syracuse:

Pitcher	Start Trend Line	W/L	ERA	Whip	FIP	K/BB Ratio	# of innings	Apps/Starts
Roenicke	A (3ip),F,B	0-2	5.84	1.54	4.10	7/7	12	5/3
Tatusko	A/short,B-,B+,A,B	1-3	2.36	0.83	3.87	15/7	26.2	5/5
Treinen	A-> upandback,C/short,B+	0-0	0.87	1.16	3.58	8/5	10.1	3/3
Hill	A,A+,C,A,C	3-1	2.35	0.91	3.68	29/4	30.2	5/5
Poveda	F,F,A,F	1-3	9.82	2.07	5.13	12/10	18.1	4/4

Laffey	A (took Treinen’s spot),A+,D+	2-0	1.80	0.67	1.92	14/2	15	3/1
Rosenbaum	D,A,C-,D/inc (injury)->D/L	1-1	4.50	1.35	4.18	9/5	20	4/4

Rotation Discussion:

A month in and the Syracuse Chiefs are mired in last place (though to be fair, only 3 games separate the entire division). Opening day starter Danny Rosenbaum is already on the D/L with a possible torn UCL, possibly the latest in an epidemic of Tommy John surgeries throughout baseball (there’s been at least 14 MLB pitchers to go under the knife for this already in 2014 and quite a few more minor leaguers; I have a draft post on this topic coming). His replacement in the rotation is journeyman and Ian Desmond-relative Josh Roenicke, who has struggled in his spot-start duties. However, Roenicke isn’t the least effective starter in AAA; that distinction goes to late spring training acquisition Omar Poveda, who has gotten pretty well battered so far in his four starts. One of these two guys likely is making way for recently demoted Taylor Jordan (well, assuming Jordan even makes it to AAA anytime soon; Doug Fister‘s return is complicated by the Nats needing another starter in-between; Jordan likely is sitting in AAA limbo until tuesday 5/6, then will settle into the AAA rotation).

Meanwhile, we’re seeing excellent springs so far out of Ryan Tatusko, Blake Treinen (albeit in a SSS thanks to his being bounced up and down out of the Nats bullpen), Aaron Laffey and especially Taylor Hill. Hill’s excellent 29/4 K/BB ratio stands out, as well as his sub 1.00 whip so far in 5 starts. I think its fair to say that nobody expected him to have rocketed up the system like he has, given the fact that he was a college senior draftee with limited bonus and limited leverage. I think its also worth noting Tatusko’s production in a swing-man role; quite similarly to his trade-mate Tanner Roark, he continues to produce at an advanced/MLFA age … could he be another “found gold” pitcher in our upper farm system?

We should also note that we have yet to see Brad Meyers, who remains on the D/L and has only thrown about 6 professional innings since 2011.

Bullpen Notables

The Syracuse bullpen has seen plenty of traffic to and from the majors: Aaron Barrett started in the majors and has seen time in Syracuse. Ryan Mattheus and Xavier Cedeno have already both been up and back. Nobody in the pen has much more than about 10 innings pitched, so we won’t make too many rash judgements. So far Christian Garcia looks decent; his 12/2 K/BB ratio in 10 innings is promising but he currently sits on the D/L with an unspecified injury. Meanwhile Daniel Stange has struggled with his control; he has 10 walks in 12 innings. We’ll talk more about bullpen guys deeper into the season.

Most Deserving of a promotion: Hill and perhaps Laffey, both of whom are pitching dominantly right now. But neither are 40-man guys, and that (especially for Laffey) hurts him. Laffey as a starter in AAA has been great, but he might be more useful as a lefty-match up guy. Cedeno has been getting the MLB-bullpen covering call-ups but if Laffey was on the 40-man instead, it probably would have been him instead.

Most in Jeopardy of a demotion/release: Poveda for sure; his cash-only acquisition isn’t looking promising considering that a rotation spot is needed soon for Jordan. Roenicke needs a couple of good outings to get his numbers up; with only 12 innings its hard to pass too harsh a judgement. But, with very little push from the current AA rotation, its hard to see a reason why the organization needs to make a move anytime soon (see the next section for more).

AA/Harrisburg:

Pitcher	Start Trend Line	W/L	ERA	Whip	FIP	K/BB Ratio	# of innings	Apps/Starts
Schwartz	F,F,B+,F,D+	0-4	6.08	1.99	5.1	15/10	23.2	5/5
Rivero	D-,B,B-,F,B+	1-4	5.06	1.69	4.85	13/9	21.1	5/5
Gilliam	F,B-,D,A	0-0	5.09	1.36	6.05	13/9	17.2	5/4
Purke	F,D,F,F	0-5	9.30	2.11	6.55	14/13	20.1	5/5
Cole	B-,A,D,F	2-1	3.63	1.57	2.82	16/4	22.1	5/5

Dupra	B+	1-0	0.00	0.9	4.35	3/3	3.1	1/0
Perry	F -> d/l	0-0	5.63	1.5	3.07	6/3	8	5/0
Jackson	A -> promoted	0-0	0.00	0.52	2.01	7/0	7.2	5/0
Bates	B	0-0	5.68		1.66	2.97	12.2	6/0

Rotation Discussion:

Well, there’s not much joy in Harrisburg in terms of the rotation right now. The team is already 7.5 games out of first and is in dead last in the Eastern League. Four of the five starters in Harrisburg are, well, just awful right now. I should note that the stats above do include one extra start for Matthew Purke; it didn’t help his cause. Newly acquired Felipe Rivero has not acclimated well to Harrisburg, to say the least. Blake Schwartz has not adjusted well to the jump to AA after his excellent season in Potomac last year. The one bright spot seems to be A.J. Cole by ERA/FIP, but he’s still putting an awful lot of people on base (1.57 whip).

Sammy Solis remains on the AA D/L, along with a handful of other long-serving names in this organization (Paul Demny, Rafael Martin and Pat Lehman).

Bullpen Notables

Zach Jackson already earned his promotion via 7 scoreless innings, though to be fair he really should have been in AAA to start (he’s a veteran minor leaguer and has been pitching at the AAA level for nearly a decade). Matt Grace is faring well thus far, as is Richie Mirowski, while Gabriel Alfaro needs to get his control under control (he’s got 9 walks in 11 1/3 innings).

Most Deserving of a promotion: none of these guys are pushing for a promotion, now that Jackson is back in AAA where he belongs.

Most in Jeopardy of a demotion/release: You have to think that Purke may be in jeopardy of being coverted to relief at this point. Alfaro was a MLFA signing out of the Mexican league and may not be long for the organization if he keeps pitching this badly. Gilliam was a throw-in to the Gio Gonzalez trade and is old for the level; he may get pushed out if someone from Potomac makes a case for promotion (which, thankfully for him, has yet to be the case; read on).

High-A/Potomac

Pitcher	Start Trend Line	W/L	ERA	Whip	FIP	K/BB Ratio	# of innings	Apps/Starts
Rauh	B-,F-,C+,C-	1-1	4.43	1.57	4	15/7	20.1	5/4
Rpena	F,D,F/inc,A-,A-	2-0	6.43	1.48	5.71	5/8	21	5/5
Mooneyham	F,C-,A-,D/short,B-	2-1	3.32	1.63	6.71	7/19	19	5/4
Bacus	A+,A+,A (into rotation for Encarnacion)	1-1	2.08	0.69	4.7	15/3	17.1	6/0
Simms	(newly promoted; no Apr starts)

Dickson	B+,F,B+,A	0-2	6.23	1.38	5.37	21/7	21.3	7/0
Encarnacion	C+,B,F,D- ->d/l	1-2	4.00	1.94	5.88	14/12	18	4/4
Lee	F-,F-,D,A -> d/l	0-2	10.05	1.74	2.33	23/8	14.1	5/4
Fister	B (rehab)	0-0	0.00	1.5	2.16	3/0	4	1/1
Dupra	A+,B+,A,A-> promoted	3-0	0.53	0.71	1.31	23/1	17	5/0

Rotation Discussion:

Potomac is sitting in 1st place easily with the rest of its division struggling so far. But Its hard to see how they’re doing it with a rotation putting up numbers like this. The only guy getting starts for Potomac in April with a respectable/impressive FIP was Nick Lee, and he’s on the D/L. But even Lee’s numbers look completely weird: he had a 10 (ten!) ERA in his 14 innings, but an astounding 23 ks in 14 innings. His numbers are completely spiked by two successive awful outings and he currently sits on the D/L with an unspecified but hopefully short-term injury. Dakota Bacus earned his way into the rotation with a series of excellent long-relief outings; he replaces the also-injured opening day rotation starter Pedro Encarnacion, who himself struggled with his control (12 walks in 18 innings) before hitting the D/L. Otherwise there’s not much notable in the Potomac rotation to talk about: Brett Mooneyham‘s advanced numbers show just how bad he’s really pitched; he currently has a 7/19 K/BB ratio in 19 innings. He has more than twice the number of walks as he has strikeouts! That’s not a recipe for success long-term.

Kylin Turnbull remains on the Hagerstown D/L, continuing to be a complete 2011 draft-day disappointment.

Bullpen Notables

The best reliever in Potomac thus far this season has already been bumped up; Brian Dupra posted a nifty 23/1 K/BB ratio and earned his way to AA. Robert Benincasa already has 5 saves with good numbers. Derek Self has great numbers and has given up just three base-runners in 10 innings thus far. So the Nats are getting some great relief. Gilberto Mendez hasn’t walked a guy yet and is one of the youngest guys in the league, so he’s clearly holding his own after posting a 0.91 ERA in low-A last year.

Most Deserving of a promotion: Outside of Dupra, its hard to pinpoint someone that really is pushing for a promotion out of this squad right now. Bacus is pitching well but he’s just got a month of high-A experience; lets see how he does for a half season. I could see the late-inning crew of Self, Benincasa and Bryan Harper possibly getting moved up sooner than later. But none of the starters really are making a case for promotion right now.

Most in Jeopardy of a demotion/release: Clearly for me the guy in trouble is Mooneyham; you just can’t be walking that many guys and have as little swing-and-miss capabilities to counter-balance your wildness. Before his injury, Encarnacion was struggling with his command too; I can see him back in low-A. Lastly Ronald Pena just is not fooling anybody right now; he’s got just 5 Ks in 20 innings and would be in more jeopardy if there weren’t other candidates ahead of him to replace at this point.

Low-A/Hagerstown

Pitcher	Start Trend Line	W/L	ERA	Whip	FIP	K/BB Ratio	# of innings	Apps/Starts
Pivetta	A,A-,F,F,B+	3-2	4.57	1.48	4.36	13/10	21.2	5/5
Voth	A,D,A-,D/short	0-2	2.91	1.38	2.7	26/10	21.1	5/5
Giolito	D-,A+,A,C-,C-	1-0	2.95	1.22	3.62	24/11	21.1	5/5
Anderson	A,A+,F,D-	3-0	6.33	1.36	4.98	13/6	21.1	5/3
Johansen	B,B+,F,C-	2-0	5.21	1.53	3.84	17/11	19	4/4

Suero	D,A,B,A	3-0	1.20	0.88	3.53	13/2	21.2	5/0
Cooper	B,A+,D	2-0	2.81	1.31	2.57	11/1	16	5/0
Jthomas	A+,A-	1-2	2.53	1.22	4.51	4/5	10.2	5/0
Ullmann	B+	0-0	0.00	0.8	2.67	9/2	10	4/0
Hollins	A-	2-0	4.35	1.74	3.86	9/7	10.1	8/0

Silvestre	B+,inc (inj)->d/l	0-0	3.00	1.33	2.24	7/2	6	2/2
Simms	A,A,A,A+->promoted	0-0	0.98	0.82	2.05	20/2	18.1	5/0
Spann	B+,A-,B+,B+->promoted	2-0	1.20	1.13	2.77	15/4	15	4/0

Rotation Discussion:

Hagerstown is taking the South Atlantic league by storm, leading its division by 5.5 games already. And they’re getting some great pitching. The team clearly seems to be doing “combo starts” with some of its guys: that’s why someone like Wander Suero has as many IP as the 5 guys in the “rotation.” So, when it comes to judging starts nearly the entire staff in Hagerstown has “start length” outings to assign grades to. I like what I see out of Austin Voth so far, and Lucas Giolito is clearly holding his own in full-season ball (both these guys feature more than a K/inning, which is great to see especially out of the undersized Voth). Meanwhile we’re seeing some worrying wildness out of Jake Johansen, which will not quell the “he’s too big to be a starter so he’s destined for the bullpen” crowd.

Bullpen Notables

John Simms (11th rounder in 2012) and Matthew Spann (booty for the team’s sticking its nose into the David DeJesus waiver situation last year) have both already forced promotions thanks to excellent results. Otherwise there really isn’t much in the way of a traditional “bullpen” in Hagerstown to talk about.

Most Deserving of a promotion: I’d say Voth and Jake Walsh, who older guys who are mowing guys down in Low-A and may need to be challenged by better/older hitters.

Most in Jeopardy of a demotion: One of the older guys on this staff (Dixon Anderson) isn’t putting up the numbers he needs to be putting up as a college senior 2011 draftee in low-A. Youngster Nicholas Pivetta is also struggling with the jump to full-season ball out of JuCo and may be dumped back to XST at some point. But it should also be said that we’re kind of squinting for bad performances out of the Low-A squad; both these guys’ numbers are better than practically anyone in AA right now.

Top Prospect Review

From a trending perspective for our top 10 prospect arms (in rough order of their typical rankings on prospect lists):

Giolito is succeeding so far, though isn’t as dominant yet to be pushing for a promotion to High-A
Cole is holding his own and is the best AA starter right now, but again isn’t entirely pushing for a AAA promotion just quite yet.
Solis has yet to appear thanks to a late spring training injury.
Rivero has really struggled since his arrival
Johansen has shown some wildness and not as much swing-and-miss stuff as he did in short-season ball.
Purke has been awful and it may be time to move him to the Pen.
Voth has been excellent and is probably the closest to a promotion.
Barrett and Treinien have both earned promotions to provide MLB cover, and when in AAA have been effective
Jefry Rodriguez is in XST and didn’t make a full-season team.

Conclusions:

So far, I must say i’m a bit disappointed in the performance of the AA squad, but its great to see the promise of the Low-A squad. I’m slightly worried about how our closer-to-the-majors top prospect arms are looking; lets re-visit in a month and see how it looks.

Written by Todd Boss

May 5th, 2014 at 9:01 am

Posted in Minor League Pitching,Minor League Rotation Reviews

Tagged with aaron barrett, aaron laffey, aj cole, austin voth, blake schwartz, blake treinen, brad meyers, brett mooneyham, brian dupra, bryan harper, christian garcia, dakota bacus, daniel stange, danny rosenbaum, david dejesus, derek self, dixon anderson, doug fister, felipe rivero, gabriel alfaro, gilberto mendez, gio gonzalez, ian desmond, jake johansen, jake walsh, jefry rodriguez, john simms, josh roenicke, kylin turnbull, lucas giolito, luke erickson, matt grace, matthew purke, matthew spann, mirowski, nicholas pivetta, nick lee, omar poveda, pat lehman, paul demny, pedro encarnacion, rafael martin, robert benincasa, ronald pena, ryan mattheus, ryan tatusko, sammy solis, tanner roark, taylor hill, taylor jordan, wander suero, xavier cedeno, zach jackson

2014 Projected Pitching Staffs and Rotations; entire Nats system

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Mr. Detwiler's 2014 assignment will have cascading effects for MLB and AAA. Photo Haraz Ghanbari/AP via federalbaseball.com

Mr. Detwiler’s 2014 role will have serious cascading effects for MLB and AAA. Photo Haraz Ghanbari/AP via federalbaseball.com

OK here we are. We did seven comprehensive pitching staff reviews (the GCL review is here, which has links to the other 6 reviews) in order to arrive at this post.

So, without further ado, here’s what I’m predicting for all seven systems right now, absent any more deals (like say for a MLB lefty or another starter or trading a closer to Chicago):

MLB Level

MLB Rotation: Strasburg, Gonzalez (L), Zimmermann, Fister, Detwiler (L)
MLB Bullpen: Soriano, Storen, Clippard, Stammen, Blevens (L), Ohlendorf, Roark
MLB out of Org: Haren, Duke (L), Abad (L), Krol (L), HRodriguez

Discussion: the 5th starter competition could shake out so many different ways, that it almost is not worth predicting. I can see any of the following scenarios playing out:

Detwiler gets one last shot at the 5th starter as the incumbent, pushing Jordan to AAA and Ohlendorf/Roark to the bullpen (my current prediction).
Jordan wins the 5th starter, pushing Detwiler to the bullpen as a power lefty by virtue of his lack of options. This would push (likely) Roark to AAA.
Roark wins the 5th starter, continuing his blistering sub 2.00 ERA pace from September, pushing Detwiler to the bullpen and Jordan to AAA.
Less likely, Karns wins the 5th spot, which pushes Detwiler to the bullpen and Roark & Jordan to AAA.
Even more less likely, Ohlendorf wins the spot, which pushes Detwiler to the bullpen but lets Roark stay as the long man/spot-starter.
Mike Rizzo shocks us again with another starter acquisition; Detwiler goes to the bullpen, Ohlendorf stays as long man, and Roark & Jordan are in AAA.

Why am I predicting Detwiler will win the rotation spot? Partly because of options, but partly because I’ve sort of come back around on him after looking more closely at his 2013 season. He had a decent to good 2012; he posted a 118 ERA+ and even if his advanced FIP/SIERA didn’t indicate he was quite that good, he was still more than a servicable 5th starter. Then in his first seven 2013 starts he was also very good (he had a 2.53 ERA in his first 7 starts and 42 2/3 innings … he got hurt in his 8th start). The rest of his season was a mess, with him fighting injury and ballooning his seasonal ERA from 2.53 to more than 4.00 in five more starts. If he comes back healthy to start 2014, why wouldn’t we expect more of the same performance that he had at the start of 2013? For these two reasons, I think Detwiler breaks camp as the 5th starter. Now …. I have zero confidence that he’ll remain healthy enough to keep his spot in the rotation, but that’s a problem for another day. And a problem for which this team has plenty of coverage.

Another scenario that could affect this predition: Rizzo acquires yet another lefty reliever (latest rumors were about Scott Downs before he signed elsewhere, but I’m sure a trade could be arranged), which complicates any of these predictions because it means one less spot for either Ohlendorf or Roark. For a team that seems so obsessed with left-handed relievers, we sure have let a bunch of them go in recent years (Duke, Abad, Krol this year, Gorzelanny, Lannan, Burnett and Gonzalez last year). Maybe we should just hang on to one or two of these guys? I will say this: I do NOT believe that the Nats will choose Xavier Cedeno and his 6 2013 MLB innings for the Nats over Roark just because he’s left handed at this point.

Personally, I think Roark and Ohlendorf pitched like big leagers last year and deserve to stay in the majors until they prove otherwise. Ohlendorf’s recent $1.25M deal seems to indicate he’s more likely to stick than Roark, but perhaps the long-man/spot starter competition is open as well. This pushes previous stalwards in the bullpen (specifically Ryan Mattheus ) to AAA. I will say this though: if you expect to win, you have to go north with your 25 best guys no matter how much they make or their option status. And at the end of last year, that undoubtedly included Tanner Roark. So thats why I’m going with Roark in the pen to start the season.

One other wrinkle; does Rizzo trade one of Storen or Clippard to Chicago, who desperately needs a closer? This seems less likely, especially for a team that has World Series aspirations, but the truth is this team is paying a LOT of money into its bullpen ($25M and counting), has three closer-quality guys, and potentially a log jam of righties (see the AAA bullpen prediction for more). I see this as less likely unless Chicago sends back pieces that we really need, but rumors get started because GMs are talking, so maybe this still happens. But if a guy like that is traded, then that re-opens a slot for the deposed Mattheus or possibly the newly healthy an electric Garcia. I think these are lesser possibilities and both those guys are pushed to AAA to begin the season.

I’m sure this section garners plenty of discussion; have at it in the comments 🙂

AAA Level

AAA Rotation: Jordan, Karns, Rosenbaum (L), Young, MLFA or two?
AAA Bullpen: Barrett, Mattheus, Garcia, Davis, Cedeno (L), Robertson (L), Herron (AA?), Alfaro, Stange, Delcarmen
AAA Release candidates: Meyers, Lehman
AAA out of Org: Maya, Tatusko, Clay, Mandel, Torra, Broadway, Crotta, Lowe, Kimball, Accardo, Bramhall, Romero (L)

Discussion

So, the projected AAA rotation has one hold over in Rosenbaum, two “promotions” in Jordan and Karns, and then a whole bunch of question marks. Is Chris Young healthy enough to pitch this year? Is Brad Meyers? Right now i’ve got Meyers as a release candidate, figuring that he hasn’t been healthy in two years and may be finished. I have to think that the team will give a couple of lower-level free agents minor league contracts to try to pitch their way back into the league, much as they have done with the likes of Zach Duke, Ross Ohlendorf and Young in the last couple of off-seasons. There’s plenty of guys out there who may make sense; a quick glance at the current list of free agents offers intriguing names (think of someone like a Joe Saunders or a Barry Zito or an Aaron Harang; do you think these guys are getting guaranteed contracts for 2014?). I’m predicting that at least one or two of these types of guys get MLFA deals and end up in the AAA rotation, though I suppose at least one guy i’m projecting from the AA rotation could start in AAA.

The AAA bullpen has a couple of MLB-quality arms in Ryan Mattheus and Christian Garcia who we know can contribute at the MLB level but who end up here because of a numbers game at the big club. The AAA closer likely is Aaron Barrett, newly added to the 40-man and looking to make his mark. Erik Davis is here, who I kind of soured on last season but his numbers in small MLB samples were good and I think he can contribute in a Craig Stammen sort of way going forward. We have a couple of hold-over loogies in Xavier Cedeno and Tyler Robertson, the latter of which successfully passed through waivers and was outrighted to Syracuse last month. We already have three off-season MLFA signings (Gabriel Alfaro, Daniel Stange, Manny Delcarmen) who all project as righty middle relievers, making it seemingly less likely that the team will retain some of its own MLFAs (the likes of Ryan Tatusko and Jeff Mandel being longer serving Nats minor leaguers who pitched decently in 2013).

But as you can see there’s more candidates here than there is room on the Syracuse roster (10 for 7 spots, and that’s assuming that Pat Lehman doesn’t make the cut either). There will be injuries and D/L stints among these guys, but there may also be some releases next March.

Still, a AAA rotation led by Jordan and Karns (and possibly Ohlendorf and/or Roark if another move is made at the MLB level) leaves Syracuse with a pretty good staff to start the season. And I like the fact that we have one reasonably accomplished MLB starter (Jordan) waiting in the wings to go along with a guy who might get there soon (Karns), to go with potentially a couple other former major league guys who are working their way back.

AA Level

AA Rotation: Cole, Hill, Solis (L), Schwartz, Treinen (AAA?)
AA Bullpen: Benincasa, Mirowski, Holland, Swynenberg, Grace (L), Bates, KPerez, Gilliam (swingman), Spann (L)
AA release candidates: Perry, Selik, Demny, RMartin
AA out of Org: Broderick, Ray, McCoy, Frias, Holder, Bray

Discussion

We’ll see this trend again and again; despite the fact that the likes of A.J. Cole and Taylor Hill reached AA last year, the organization seems to like seeing these guys “beat the level” a second season in a row before moving guys up. And so I see these guys in AA again. Sammy Solis here is no surprise; he’s nearly 26 and has been mentioned as a MLB bullpen candidate already. Meanwhile for the time being i’ve got Blake Treinen here, repeating the level, but can also see him moving up to AAA. His numbers were good but not *that* good last year, and I left him in AA assuming that the team will try out some re-treads in the AAA rotation. Lastly Blake Schwartz gets a deserved promotion after leading Potomac in IP, wins and starts last year.

In the bullpen I think Robert Benincasa is your closer to start, with Richie Mirowski and Neil Holland continuing to put up dominating late-innings relief. All three guys should be pushing for promotions to AAA. We’re a little light on lefties here admittedly. A couple of injury-prone guys in Ryan Perry and Cameron Selik are listed as release candidates in the face of a number of guys meriting placement here. Paul Demny and Rafael Martin have been around forever and may also be release candidates at this point, but they also could (at least in Demny’s case) convert to relief and try to rekindle their careers. Lastly, there’s newly acquired Matthew Spann, the bounty for the Nats gambit on David Dejesus near the end of last season. He’s a lefty who looks like he could start but i’ve got him in the bullpen for now.

High-A Level

High-A rotation: Purke (L), Anderson, Mooneyham (L), Encarnacion, Bacus, Turnbull (bullpen?) (L)
High-A bullpen: Wort (AA?), Holt (AA?), Fischer, Henke, Mendez, Harper (L), Davis, Thomas (L), RPena (swingman), Dickson (swingman)
High-A release candidates: Dupra, Rauh (starter?), Meza (L)
High-A out of org: Pineyro, Hawkins

Discussion

I don’t think there’s too many surprises in this rotation: Matthew Purke leads the line and should push for a promotion mid-season. If he doesn’t dominate High-A at this point it may be time to think about moving him to the pen. The same can be said about Brett Mooneyham and especially Kylin Turnbull, two guys who (by now) should have accomplished this level. Otherwise the rest of this projected rotation are three guys who succeeded in Low-A in 2013: Dixon Anderson, Pedro Encarnacion and Dakoda Bacus.

In the bullpen, at this point i’m not sure who the closer candidates are to start the season. Perhaps Greg Holt starts in the role. Perhaps low-A phenom Gilberto Mendez gets a shot at closing. Both Holt and Rob Wort may belong in AA at this point; Wort began 2013 there but there’s a lot of relievers in that AA section who would have to get hurt/be released to make room for these two guys right now. There’s a couple of decent swingmen candidates here in Ronald Pena and Ian Dickson both started for long stretches in Hagerstown and could be useful guys in Potomac. There’s a lot of names in the mix here for this bullpen; from here on down there could be plenty of releases come the end of spring.

Low-A Level

Low-A rotation: Giolito, Johansen, Voth, Lee (high-A?) (L), Orlan (L)
Low-A bullpen: Self (high-A?), Selsor (swingman), Ullmann, Pivetta, Simms, Hollins, Napoli (L), Bafidis (L), Suero (swingman), Valdez, Walsh (L), Aries
Low-A release candidates: Joyce, Waterman, Boyden
Low-A out of org: McKenzie, Smith

Discussion

I like this rotation, a lot. Two of our best prospects, a third guy in Austin Voth who impressed last year, a guy in Nick Lee who probably deserves a high-A rotation spot and then Auburn’s staff leader in Robert Orlan. Jake Johansen may find himself needing a promotion quickly, if he’s all that he’s cracked up to be.

The bullpen is going to be tough; basically every college aged short-season guy who pitched well in 2013 is named in this bullpen competition. There’s a couple of interesting DSL graduates in Wander Suero and Phillips Valdez, some big arms in Ryan Ullmann and Nick Pivetta, and some polished college-aged lefties in David Napoli, Cory Bafidis and Jake Walsh. I have 15 names here for 7-8 spots; Viera’s extended spring training could be busy this year.

Short-A Level

Short-A rotation: Barrientos, JRodriguez, Silvestre (high-A?) (L), and then 2013 draftees and/or drop-downs from Low-A
Short-A bullpen: DWilliams, Cooper, KRodriguez, Derosier, Webb (L), Spezial (L), 2013 draftees and drop-downs from Low-A
Short-A release candidates: Sylvestri, Grisz
Short-A out of org: Hudgins, Simko, Dicharry

GCL Level

Rookie Rotation: Ott (L), 2013 draftees and DSL graduates
Rookie bullpen: RLopez, 2013 draftees and DSL graduates
Rookie release candidates: DRamos, MRodriguez

Discussion

Its frankly impossible to predict the short-season squads, since (especially Auburn) they exist to park newly signed draftees. However, I do see a ton of guys who competed and succeeded in the GCL this year who won’t necessarily make the Hagerstown squad, and I see them forming a good chunk of the Auburn squad. The rest of the Auburn squad will be populated with upper-end 2014 draftees and losers from the Hagerstown pitching staff competition. More of the same with the 2014 GCL squad, which was heavily tilted with DSL graduates this year. The Nats tend to focus on college arms and thus only small college guys are generally put in the GCL in their draft year.

Written by Todd Boss

December 23rd, 2013 at 7:41 am

Posted in Majors Pitching,Minor League Pitching

Tagged with aaron barrett, aaron harang, aj cole, austin voth, barry zito, blake schwartz, blake treinen, brad meyers, brett mooneyham, cameron selik, chris young, christian garcia, cory bafidis, craig stammen, dakoda bacus, dan haren, daniel stange, danny rosenbaum, david dejesus, david napoli, dixon anderson, doug fister, drew storen, erik davis, fernando abad, gabriel alfaro, gilberto mendez, gio gonzalez, greg holt, hector silvestre, henry rodriguez, ian dickson, ian krol, jake johansen, jake walsh, jeff mandel, jefry rodriguez, jeremy blevens, joe saunders, joel barrientos, john lannan, jordan zimmermann, kylin turnbull, lucas giolito, manny delcarmen, mathew spann, matthew purke, mike gonzalez, nathan karns, neil holland, nick lee, nick pivetta, pat lehman, paul demny, pedro encarnacion, phillips valdez, rafael martin, rafael soriano, richie mirowski, rob wort, robert benincasa, robert orlan, ronald pena, ross detwiler, ross ohlendorf, ryan mattheus, ryan perry, ryan tatusko, ryan ullmann, sammy solis, scott downs, sean burnett, stephen strasburg, tanner roark, taylor hill, taylor jordan, tom gorzelanny, travis ott, tyler clippard, tyler herron, tyler robertson, wander suero, xavier cedeno, zach duke

Hagerstown/Low-A Pitching Staff Year in Review; 2013

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Pedro Encarnacion was the staff leader for Hagerstown in 2013. Photo via flickr.

This is the 5th in the 2013 Pitching staff review series, here’s a review of Hagerstown/Low-A’s pitching staff for 2013. Other parts of the 2013 series:

For some historical perspective, here’s 2012’s version (Aaron Barrett was the feature pitcher) and 2011’s version (Taylor Jordan the feature pitcher) of this post specifically for Hagerstown/Low-A.

All stats are courtesy of either milb.com’s Hagerstown 2013 Stats page or via Fangraph’s Hagerstown 2013 page. Also useful here are the Big Board and the Nats Draft Tracker since so many of these lower-minors guys are recent draftees.

Hagerstown starters. The rotation started the season with Anderson, Mooneyham, Pineyro, Pena and Encarnacion. It ended with Turnbull, Encarnacion, Bacus, Voth, and Johansen (with Dickson in the rotation most of the last half of the season as well). There were quite a few changes along the way; I counted 8 pitcher promotions throughout the year, including 6 starters. Lets take a look at the High-A starters for 2013, starting with the original five and then counting down by the number of starts.

Dixon Anderson got the ball opening day and threw 15 decent starts for the Suns, even making the all-star team. He started to struggle in June, hit the D/L at the end of that month and never re-appeared. As you might imagine, its hard to find out injury news for guys in the low minors, so the extent of his injury is unknown to me at this time. Which makes it kind of hard to predict where he’ll be next year. He had good component ratios and was a college draftee from a good baseball school, so you’d think he’s ready to move up. Outlook for next season: High-A rotation if he’s healthy.
Brett Mooneyham absolutely dominated low-A ball, posting a 1.94 ERA and going 10-3 in 93 innings before mercifully being pushed to Potomac. And this comes as no surprise; a 3rd round pick from a Pac-12 baseball power should dominate a bunch of kids 2 years his junior. I’m not sure what was left to prove in Hagerstown, especially when it became clear he was overpowering the league. To be fair, he did have a 6 week D/L stint that factored in; but once he came back and dominated towards the end of June he should have been pushed up. Outlook for next season: High-A rotation.
Ivan Pineyro threw 13 good starts for Hagerstown, was promoted, then got 3 starts in High-A before he was flipped for Scott Hairston. Outlook for next season: in the Chicago Cubs organization.
Ronald Pena started in the rotation for Hagerstown, then was pushed to the bullpen to become the long-man by June. He ended the season with decent enough numbers: 4-3 with a 3.48 ERA in 28 appearances (10 starts). His component ratios weren’t that great: 55/34 K/BB in 88 innings, but he did give the Suns a great playoff stint in long relief. Where does a guy like this go from here? Outlook for next season: high-A bullpen in a similar long-relief/spot starter role.
Pedro Encarnacion was the staff leader for Hagerstown this year, leading the team in starts, wins (technically tied with Mooneyham), innings pitched and K’s. The DSL graduate posted a 10-9 W/L record with 113/37 K/BB in 128 innings. He had a 1.19 whip on the year, and his FIP (3.50) flattered his ERA (3.58). Encarnacion right now represents the most accomplished DSL graduate in the entire system (when speaking of pitchers anyway), perhaps the best DSL pitching prospect we’ve had the entire time the team has been in Washington (who is more accomplished? Atahualpa Severino?), and I see no reason for him not to keep climbing the ranks next year. Outlook for next season: High-A rotation.
Nick Lee joined up with Hagerstown in mid May and gave the team 17 decent starts before hitting the D/L to make way for new acquisition Dakota Bacus in August (more on him later). He had impressive K rates (102 strikeouts in 91 innings) and a FIP (3.54) that flattered his ERA (3.95). He had a number of sparkling outings interspersed with a couple of failures, but for the most part was consistent this year. Outlook for next season: High-A rotation competition, possibly dropping back to Low-A if the numbers game doesn’t work out (he’s young; he’s still 22).
Kylin Turnbull lasted just three high-A starts, giving up 10 runs in 17 innings and was demoted to low-A. Repeating Hagerstown, he was again poor, putting in just 5 mediocre-to-bad starts before being sent to XST, where he toiled for a few weeks before joining up with Auburn to start the short-season. He pitched to a 1.96 ERA in four short-A starts and earned a promotion back to Hagerstown, where he finally settled down and finished out the year. Unfortunately he laid an egg in the playoffs, but a lot of our guys did. On the whole in Hagerstown for the year, he performed ably; a 3.58 ERA in 16 starts. Outlook for next season: Attempting High-A’s rotation again, but i’m wondering if he’s cut out to start. Despite his draft pedigree (4th rounder in 2011) he may be eventually bound for the bullpen as a lefty specialist.
Ian Dickson was acquired in early June from the Cubs when the Nats finally DFA’d Henry Rodriguez. I define this transaction as “getting something for nothing.” Dickson joined the Suns bullpen, showed his big arm, then was mostly a starter for the rest of the season. All in all for the Suns he had 16 appearances (10 starts) and posted a 4.39 ERA with more than a K/inning. Meanwhile his K/BB ratio was fantastic for such a strikeout guy (71/17 in 65 2/3 innings for the Suns this year). Is he a starter? Outlook for next season: High-A swingman/spot-starter.
Matt Purke over-matched low-A in 6 starts (posting 41 K’s in 29 innings) and was pushed to Potomac in early July. See the high-A writeup for more. Outlook for next season: High-A rotation.
Others who got just 1-2 starts for Hagerstown:
- Austin Voth is an exciting 2013 draftee who blew through both short season teams to end up in the low-A rotation and get the opening playoff start. See the short-A writeup for more.
- Jake Johansen is, as we all know, the Nats top draft pick from 2013. He (like Voth) pushed his way to low-A this season. See the short-A writeup for more.
- Dakota Bacus came to the team in late August in trade for Kurt Suzuki; he spent most of the year in Oakland’s low-A team and performed ably. He posted a 3.65 ERA in 121 innings but showed a bit of a wild streak. Outlook for next season: High-A rotation competition.
- Blake Schwartz blitzed through 4 starts in low-A and was quickly promoted to Potomac. See the high-A write-up for more. Outlook for next season: AA rotation.
- Brian Dupra earned two promotions on the season to end up in Potomac’s bullpen. See the high-A write-up for more. Outlook for next season: High-A bullpen competition, possible release.
- Reynaldo Lopez gave Hagerstown a spot start, getting called up from Auburn. See Short-A write-up for more.
- Ryan Mattheus got a rehab “start.” See MLB write-up for more.

Hagerstown relievers. We’ll start with the closers and work backwards by IP from there. I will say this; when considering the future of middle relievers in low-A ball, everything is a crap shoot. Most of these guys are already “org guys” before they’ve even really started their careers and its really difficult to project where they may go. Unfortunately, lots of these guys may end up being post spring-training releases to make way for the newer crop of draftees.

Robert Benincasa led the Suns in saves despite being promoted mid-season. See the high-A write-up for more. Outlook for next season: AA/High-A bullpen.
Gilberto Mendez dominated low-A this season, arriving in June, posting a 0.91 ERA and striking out 33 in 29 2/3 innings while earning 7 saves. No reason to think the 2011 DR signing isn’t moving on up. I like this guy; so far he’s pitched pretty well at every level he’s hit. Outlook for next season: High-A bullpen, possibly the closer if Benincasa is in AA.
Derek Self couldn’t make the leap to High-A, and spent most of the season in Hagerstown. He posted decent numbers in low-A: a 3.41 ERA in 31 2/3 innings pitching mostly towards the back of the bullpen. Outlook for next season: trying the high-A bullpen again, possibly falling back to the low-A bullpen.
Travis Henke toiled most of the season in Hagerstown and got a late-season promotion. In Low-A he posted a 2.72 ERA in nearly 60 innings of mostly longer relief. He’s yet another decent find out of a small college (Arkansas – Little Rock) for the Nats scouting department. Outlook for next season: high-A bullpen.
Bryan Harper earned his keep in low-A this year, posting a 3.97 ERA in 45 innings. He’s got to work on his control though; 32 walks in those 45 innings completely counter balance his nice K/9 ratio. Outlook for next season: high-A bullpen competition as the matchup-lefty.
Cody Davis continued to pitch extremely well for an undrafted free agent signing, succeeding in his third straight season and third straight promotion. For Hagerstown in 2013; a 2.76 ERA in 42 innings, more than a K/inning, nearly a 4/1 K/BB ratio and an even better FIP (2.33) than his ERA. He’s clearly earned a shot at the next level. Outlook for next season: High-A bullpen.
Brian Rauh started the year in Hagerstown’s bullpen as an 8th inning guy, didn’t really pitch that well but was pushed up to Potomac anyway. See the high-A write-up for more. Outlook for next season: High-A bullpen, perhaps a starter. Perhaps a release candidate.
Christian Meza lasted about 5 weeks in Potomac, putting up a 6.62 ERA and greater than a 2.00 whip before getting demoted back to Hagerstown. For Hagerstown he was better but still not great; a 4.00 ERA over 31 innings. To be fair, his K rate was excellent and his FIP in such a short sample size was decent, but giving up 2 base runners an inning as a reliever is a no-no. He’s entering his 5th pro season and has thus far been unable to succeed above low-A ball; he may face a do-or-die spring training in 2014. He is a lefty though, and the lower parts of the system seem to lack lefty matchup guys, so this could be a saving grace. Outlook for next season: trying the high-A bullpen again, possible release candidate.
David Fischer started the year in Hagerstown but was quickly bumped up to Potomac, where he served as a long-man out of the pen. See the high-A write-up for more. Outlook for next season: High-A bullpen.
Will Hudgins started the year in Hagerstown’s bullpen, was demoted to Auburn, and abruptly retired in July. Odd in my opinion; his stats didn’t look that bad. Outlook for next season: out of baseball.
Other relievers who didn’t get enough innings to really pass much judgement:
- Justin Thomas bounced around the system in his first pro year, pitching at 4 different levels. He only threw a grand total of 22 innings on the year so its hard to pass too much judgement. He was a college senior draftee so you’d have to think he’s better suited for full-season ball in 2014. Outlook for next season: High-A bullpen competition.
- Chris McKenzie threw 12 innings of 5.25 ERA ball and was released, ending a 4 year tenure in the organization.
- Jason Smith got lit up in 7+ innings and was released.
- Corey Bafidis stopped in to Hagerstown for two appearances before heading to Auburn. See the short-A write-up.
- Leonard Hollins had one appearance in low-A, got sent back to XST and spent the season in Auburn. See the short-A write-up.
- Jake Walsh had 1 IP during a brief callup in August, then joined the Suns for the playoffs. See the GCL write-up for more.

Summary

The Suns were the first half champs on the backs of good (if over-aged) starting pitching. It is what it is; the Nationals are drafting older players, focusing on college guys, and its just natural that our low-A team is going to trend older. Based on what I see here, there’s going to be quite a competition for the High-A spots in 2014. There’s going to be more guys than spots, both in the rotation and in the bullpen.

A lot of the names who featured for the Suns in the playoffs may very well be back to start 2014, giving the team an excellent chance of repeating as first half champs in 2014.

Written by Todd Boss

December 19th, 2013 at 7:10 am

Potomac/High-A Pitching Staff Year in Review; 2013

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Taylor Jordan’s phenomenal rise from A-ball to the majors is this year’s high-A story of the year. Photo via wffn.net/hueytaxi on flikr.com

This is the 4th in the 2013 Pitching staff review series, here’s a review of Potomac/High-A’s pitching staff for 2013. Other parts of the 2013 series:

For some historical perspective, here’s 2012’s version (Nathan Karns the feature pitcher) and 2011’s version (Danny Rosenbaum the feature pitcher) of this post specifically for Potomac/High-A.

All stats are courtesy of either milb.com’s Potomac 2013 Stats page or via Fangraph’s Potomac 2013 page. Also useful here are the Big Board and the Nats Draft Tracker since so many of these lower-minors guys are recent draftees.

Note: from here on down, there’s more than a few examples of small sample sizes. Plus, I know many readers here were frequent Potomac game attendees and may have different/better opinions than I. Please comment if you disagree with the sentiments here.

Potomac starters. The rotation started the season with Ray, Jordan, Cole, Turnbull and Hill. It ended with Purke, Demny, Mooneyham, Solis and Schwartz. There were quite a few changes along the way; I counted 9 promotions throughout the year. Lets take a look at the High-A starters for 2013, starting with the original five and then counting down by the number of starts. Because there were so many promotions, we’ll be referring to the AA and MLB posts frequently here for more detail.

Robbie Ray got the ball opening day and never looked back: he dominated high-A in the first half of the season (10.71 K/9 in 16 High-A starts) and continued the great work as one of the youngest starters in all of AA by the time the season was over. See the AA-writeup for more. Outlook for next season: in the Detroit organization.
Taylor Jordan gave up just 5 earned runs in his first 6 Potomac starts of the year, quickly earning him a promotion to AA. We all know the story from here; he blew up AA and then gave the MLB team 9 good starts before hitting his post TJ surgery innings limit. See AA’s and the MLB post for more detail. Outlook for next season: AAA rotation.
A. J. Cole made his triumphant return to the Nats organization, escaping his hellish 2012 season in the California League by coming back to Washington as bounty for Michael Morse. Cole threw about 100 innings in High-A across 18 starts and was 6-3 with a 4.25 ERA. His FIP was considerably better and he averaged more than a K/inning, and the team pushed him to AA as a 21 year old. See AA’s post for more. Outlook for next season: AA rotation to start, looking for a mid-season promotion to AAA.
Kylin Turnbull lasted just three high-A starts, giving up 10 runs in 17 innings and was demoted to low-A. See low-A’s post for more. Outlook for next season: Attempting High-A’s rotation again.
Taylor Hill threw 84 innings of sub 3.00 ball across 14 starts in Potomac, earning a promotion to AA mid-season. See AA’s write-up for more. Outlook for next season: AA rotation.
Blake Schwartz blitzed through 4 starts in low-A and was quickly promoted to Potomac, where he led the staff in starts, wins and innings. He finished the year with an 11-4 record with a 2.65 ERA in 132 innings. His ERA was a bit masked by a low BABIP, resulting in a FIP that was a point higher. He had a nice 4/1 K/BB ratio, a relatively small WHIP, and a decent enough K/9 rate. Another excellent small college find by the Nats scouting staff. Outlook for next season: You have to think he’s in the AA rotation; what more does he have to prove in high-A?
Sammy Solis made it back from Tommy John and gave Potomac 57 innings over 13 apperances with a decent 3.43 ERA. He did miss some time mid-season but came back pretty strong. He was also the P-Nats’ #1 starter in the playoffs, giving them one great and one not-so-great start in the post season. Solis was added to the 40-man ahead of the Rule-5 draft by virtue of his being eligible; now there’s talk about him possibly featuring as a lefty-matchup guy at the major league level. I can see that eventually, but not from the start of the 2014 season. I can see Solis going to AA to get some reps against better hitters and possibly covering for injuries/need later this year. Outlook for next season: AA rotation for now.
Brian Rauh started the year in Hagerstown’s bullpen as an 8th inning guy, didn’t really pitch that well but was pushed up to Potomac anyway, where he suddenly slotted in as a starter and ended up giving the team 12 starts over 16 appearances with a 4.22 ERA (4.81 FIP) over 64 innings. He made way in the rotation late in the season for Brett Mooneyham and worked out of the pen again for the playoffs. Outlook for next season: High-A bullpen, perhaps a starter. Perhaps a release candidate.
Matt Purke finally looked healthy after years of shoulder issues. He over matched low-A and was pushed to Potomac in early July. In 12 starts he was 5-3 with a 4.43 ERA, 1.39 whip, and 3.58 FIP. He got the ball in the ghird playoff game and pitched decently enough. What concerns me is his lack of dominance of A-ball hitters; he sported just a 6.05 K/9 rate as a starter in High-A this year. This from a former first round pick, a dominant lefty who was undefeated as a freshman in college in a good baseball conference. What are we to make of him at this point? On the bright side, he’s only 22 and still has a couple of option years left, so the Nats have some time to see what they have (unlike, say with Solis, who is 25 and needs to show something like right now). Outlook for next season: High-A starter once again, looking for a quick promotion to AA.
Paul Demny couldn’t make the jump to AA as a starter, and was demoted back to Potomac mid-season. He ended the season in Potomac’s rotation but (likely out of respect for what the Potomac guys accomplished this year) did not participate in the High-A playoffs. In 8 Potomac starts, he was 2-2 with a 3.69 ERA with about a K/inning, which he should have done considering that he’s in his 6th pro season. See the AA post for more. Outlook for next season: AA bullpen.
Brett Mooneyham pitched most of the year in Hagerstown before a late-season bump up to Potomac, where he promptly got shelled. See the low-A post for more. Outlook for next season: High-A rotation.
Other guys who got spot starts here and there:
- Ivan Pineyro got 3 starts in High-A before he was flipped for Scott Hairston. See the low-A post for more. (Editor’s note: corrected for the right Hairston thanks to John C comment).
- Brian Dupra got a few spot-starts; see the reliever section.
- Marcos Frias posted a 7.59 ERA in two starts and a few relief appearances and was released 7/24/13. See the AA post for more.
- Rob Gilliam made two forgettable starts in High-A before getting pushed up to AA. See the AA post for more.
- Hector Sylvestre got called up from the rookie league to make one spot start. See GCL post for more.
- Ross Detwiler and Ross Ohlendorf both made one rehab start for Potomac. See MLB post for more.

Potomac Relievers: taking a look at the relief corps. We’ll organize relievers by looking at closers first, then by innings pitched.

Robert Benincasa earned 17 saves in 25 apperances for Potomac to lead the team in saves. He earned his promotion after starting the season as Hagerstown’s closer. His numbers on the year: 34/9 K/BB in 30 innings, 3.30 ERA, 1.23 whip, 2.80 fip. His performance earned him a placement in the Arizona Fall League, where he posted a 4.00 ERA in 9 innings of work. Outlook for next season: Depending on the numbers, I could see him in the AA bullpen or beginning in High-A with a look for a quick promotion.
Richie Mirowski dominated to the tune of a 1.50 ERA across 48 high-A innings and earned his promotion. See the AA post for more. Outlook for next season: AA bullpen again, looking to force another promotion.
Rob Wort started the season in AA, struggled, missed 5 weeks with an injury, but then settled in as a back-of-the-bullpen guy for Potomac. In 34 innings he posted a 3.71 ERA but more impressively had a 48/29 K/BB ratio. Well, ok, the 29 walks in 34 innings wasn’t that impressive, but the 48 Ks was. Unfortunately for Wort, this is the FOURTH season in a row he’s been in Potomac. He had absolutely fantastic numbers in 2012 but couldn’t back them up. It may be safe to say he’s hit his limit organizationally. Outlook for next season: Another shot at AA bullpen but may end up back in High-A.
Greg Holt put up solid numbers as a middle reliever for Potomac, leading the bullpen in innings while going 9-0 with a 3.71 ERA in 70+ innings. I’m concerned with his 55/33 K/BB ratio in those 70 innings; that just seems like too many walks and not enough K’s. He’s progressed each of his three pro seasons; will he keep moving on up to AA for 2014? Outlook for next season: Possibly in AA’s bullpen, more likely back as high-A middle reliever.
Colin Bates had a really nice season for Potomac this year, posting nearly a 6-1 K/BB ratio while still striking out nearly 7 guys per 9 innings pitched. He posted a 2.61 ERA over 62 innings pitched, his second straight season advancing a level and posting a sub 3.00 ERA in the bullpen. Outlook for next season: AA bullpen.
Brian Dupra earned two promotions on the season to end up in Potomac’s bullpen, where he put up pedestrian numbers (1-7, 4.96 ERA, 1.49 whip). A college senior draftee with very little bonus money investment, Dupra’s usefulness to the organization may be at a limit. Outlook for next season: High-A bullpen competition, possible release.
David Fischer started the year in Hagerstown but was quickly bumped up to Potomac, where he served as a long-man out of the pen. He hit the D/L in mid August and never returned. On the year his numbers were pedestrian; 4.30 ERA in 44 innings. He did maintain a great K/9 rate (10.84). But Fischer’s problem is the same as his fellow low-bonus/college senior draftees currently toiling in A-ball; its move up or ship out. Outlook for next season: High-A bullpen.
Matt Grace threw 28 innings of quality relief and was bumped up to AA. See the AA write-up for more. Outlook for next season: AA bullpen to continue as the lefty matchup guy.
Rafael Martin didn’t make his first appearance until July, and when he got to Potomac he was great; a 1.04 ERA in 26 innings. As well he should; two years ago he was a closer in AA and posted a 1.77 era. What is he doing in A-Ball? The Mexican league free agent signing in 2009 seems like he should be back in AA, where he’s shown he can compete in the past. Outlook for next season: AA bullpen.
Derek Self couldn’t make the leap to High-A, getting demoted to Hagerstown after putting up a 6 ERA in 29 innings. See the low-A post for more. Outlook for next season: trying the high-A bullpen again.
Tyler Herron quickly showed he was too good for High-A and was promoted to Harrisburg after 20 innings. See the AA post for more. Outlook for next season: AAA bullpen.
Christian Meza lasted about 5 weeks in Potomac, putting up a 6.62 ERA and greater than a 2.00 whip before getting demoted back to Hagerstown. See the low-A post for more. Outlook for next season: trying the high-A bullpen again, possible release candidate.
Travis Henke toiled most of the season in Hagerstown and got a late-season promotion. See the low-A post for more. Outlook for next season: high-A bullpen.
Cameron Selik struggled through 10 appearances and 11 innings throughout the course of the season, missing a ton of time as he struggled with injury. He can’t go back to Potomac for the fourth straight season, can he? Outlook for next season: AA bullpen if healthy, otherwise perhaps an unfortunate release candidate.
Other guys who had short stints with Potomac this year:
- Ben Hawkins threw 8 innings and was released.
- Justin Thomas threw just one inning in Potomac during his tour of the low-minors this year; see the Low-A post for more.

Summary

No less than 18 guys got starts this year for Potomac, in a 142 game season. All five of their opening day starters were moved out (four up, one down) by mid-season, and yet the team still made the playoffs. That’s a great testament to the pitcher development going on in our low minors, and I think it is going to show on the big club very soon. Its not hard to see potential in a whole slew of the starters who passed through Potomac this year.

On the reliever side, there’s a couple of guys here who may make an impact, but there’s also a whole slew of right handed middle relievers who were college senior graduates who may very quickly find themselves pushed out by the later crops of college senior draftees.

Written by Todd Boss

December 18th, 2013 at 7:34 am

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