Nationals Arm Race

Nathan Karns looks to resurrect a promising career. Photo via perfectgame.org

Because of life changes and lack of spare time, I stopped doing the daily reviews of the minor league pitching rotations in early august.  This was too bad, because I didn’t adequately track which 2011 draftees were placed with which team.  We’ll do some quick catch-up here.

Here’s the status of the Auburn pitching staff at the end of the season (ages are as of 9/30/11)

• Rotation: Estevez 19, MRodriguez 22, Meza (L) 21, Dupra 22, Karns 23, Hill 22
• Bullpen: Kreis 22, Henke 22, Mirowski 22, Barrett 23, MRivera 24, Grisz 21, Hawkins (L) 21, Hanks 21, Bates 23
• spot starts: Jenkins(L) 22, KLopez 21
• promotions: Holland, Bronson (down and back), Holt, Demmin, CGarcia
• up-and-back: Hanks, Bates
• demotions: McKenzie (sort of), Encarnation, Monar

Auburn starters.  The rotation started the season with Demmin, Estevez, Encarnation, KLopez and Bates.

• Ryan Demmin‘s short-A career was “short,” lasting 5 mostly good starts before being promoted up to high-A.  He eventually settled in Low-A and was reviewed there.  Outlook for next season: (from high-A post): Potomac middle reliever.
• Wirkin Estevez was the workhorse of the short-A squad, making 14 appearances (13 starts) and posting a respectable 4.01 era as one of the younger pitchers in the league as a 19yr old.  He was up and down in his starts; some good to great, some bad to awful.  He’ll need to be more consistent going forward to stay in the rotation.  Outlook for next season: The 2010 Dominican Summer League (DSL) grad should graduate to low-A, though I’m not sure there’s room for him in the rotation.  I’m guessing he’s a bullpen arm there.
• Pedro Encarnation had three mostly bad starts before getting demoted to GCL.  We’ll review him there.
• Kelvin Lopez, despite being one of the first starters through the rotation, was really just putting in a spot start and pitched mostly out of the bullpen.  He was relatively effective in the short season, posting a 3.65 era in 10 games and 24 2/3 innings.  Outlook for next season: Entering his 4th pro season he should feature in the Hagerstown bullpen, but the competition there will be crowded.  He had better numbers than most of his 2011 Hagerstown competition and should stick.
• Colin Bates started hot in the rotation, got promoted after 7 starts, then floundered in Hagerstown before getting dumped back to Auburn in late august, where he worked out of the bullpen.  His ERA was good in short-A (2.25) and was an improvement over 2010, but he’s already old for the level and needs to improve for next year.  Outlook for next season: Potomac middle relief on a short leash.
• Manny Rodriguez was one of the first 2011 draftees to appear in our system, signing quickly as a 10th round pick and pitching 50 innings over 14 appearances and 12 starts in Auburn.  Results?  2-3 with a 4.65 era in his first pro season.  Like a lot of guys coming off full college seasons, he seemed to tire in his late August starts.  Outlook for next season: Repeats Short-A as a starter.
• Christian Meza started the season in the GCL, then was promoted after two appearances to join the Auburn rotation.  He had 10 starts and posted a 5.68 era in them.  Outlook for next season: with all the starter prospects we drafted in 2011, I think Meza drops to the bullpen and repeats Short-A in 2012.
• Brian Dupra was another 2011 draftee (a Senior out of Notre Dame) who featured as predominantly a starter in Auburn.  He had better results than some of his draft day compatriots, posting a 4-4 record with a 3.46 era in 54 2/3 innings.  Outlook for next season: he starts the season in the Short-A rotation after staying behind in extended spring training.
• Nathan Karns has been an enigma so far in his Nats career.  A 2009 draftee, he never appeared professionally after signing, then missed all of 2010 with an injury.  The team started him slow in 2011, giving him 5 starts in the GCL (where he didn’t allow a run over 18 innings while giving up just 2 hits), and then giving him another 8 good starts in Auburn, where he was a respectable 3-2 with a 3.44 era.  He was rather wild on the season, with nearly as many walks as strikeouts, but the promising arm drafted 2 years ago seems to be back.  Outlook for next season: He’ll compete for a rotation spot in Potomac but may settle for a bullpen role.
• Taylor Hill was another 2011 draftee who featured in the Auburn staff, getting five late season starts after pitching out of the bullpen after signing.  His control was impeccable; 27Ks against just 3 walks in 31 innings, and his 5 starts were stellar; a 2.38 ERA in those appearances.  Outlook for next season: He was a college senior draftee and will play next year as a 23 yr old.  I think he’ll win a spot in the Potomac rotation out of spring.

Auburn Relievers:

• A slew of 2010 and 2011 draftees pitched out of the Auburn bullpen and struggled.  Kreis, Henke, and Barrett each posted eras in the 4-5 range for the 2011 squad.  None of these guys were high round draft picks and were always meant to be primarily organizational guys unless proven otherwise.  Barrett was mostly used as the closer and had 32 ks in 26 innings, but also had a ton of walks and a 4.05 era.  Outlook for next season: All 3 back in Short-A bullpen.
• Chad Jenkins survived his third pro season and put up good short-A numbers in a combo role of loogy and long relief.   Unfortunately he had more walks than strikeouts, and time may be running out for the 2009 17th rounder.  Outlook for next season: another shot at the Hagerstown bullpen, with the firing line if he can’t cut it in his 4th pro season.
• Manuel Rivera is a long serving DSL grad finishing his 5th pro season in our system.  He put up good short-A numbers in a relief mode (3-0, 2.81 era in 20 appearances) and may be a Dominican Republic find.  Outlook for next season: he moves up to the Hagerstown bullpen to give full-season baseball a shot.
• Mirowski, Grisz, Hawkins and Holt all pitched really well in the Auburn bullpen after being 2011 draftees (or in Grisz’ case a non-drafted FA find).   Holt was promoted up to Hagerstown and finished the season there.  Outlook for next season: all four could be in the mix for a full-season bullpen job, or could find themselves back in Short-A if they don’t make the team out of extended spring.
• Tyler Hanks bounced around the low minors this year, pitching lights out in the GCL before struggling in low-A and ending the season in the short-A bullpen.  Outlook for next season: he should get another shot at the Hagerstown bullpen.
• Others who appeared briefly: Christian Garcia was a waiver claim mid-season from the Yankees; he threw a bunch of good innings in Auburn before moving back where he belonged; AAA.  Blake Monar threw a few innings then decamped back for the GCL.  Lastly Silvio Medina did the same as Monar, pitching mostly out of the GCL.

Its hard to predict where a lot of these guys will end up; the team drafted SO many arms in 2011, mostly older college guys, that we may very well see a ton of churn in the bullpens of Hagerstown, Potomac and Auburn for next year.  Plus we’ll have a new wave of rizing DSL stars and 2012 signees to consider once these teams are put together.  So predictions are tough.

Despite injury issues, Taylor Jordan was your best low-A starter this year. Photo via wffn.net/hueytaxi on flikr.com

(4th in a series looking at all the minor league levels of pitching.  AAA, AA and High-A links).

The Hagerstown rotation was one of real interest all season, with teenage prospects AJ Cole and Robbie Ray both holding down spots, with 2010 2nd rounder Sammy Solis putting in his Nats debut, and with unexpected performances from unexpected players.

Here’s the status of the Hagerstown pitching staff at the end of the season (ages are as of 9/30/11)

• Starters:  Cole 19, Ray (L) 19, Grace (L) 22, Demmin (L) 23, Swynenberg 22
• Bullpen: SBrown 24, Eusebio 23, McCatty 24, Holt, Graham 23, Weaver 23, McKenzie 22
• spot starts:  Applebee(L) 23
• promotions: Bronson (sort of), Selik, Solis, Holland
• up-and-back: Weaver
• demotions:  Jenkins(L) 23, Bates 21
• dl: McGeary 22, Jordan 22, Hansen (L) 21
• cut/released/traded: Hicks (traded), Ott, Vasquez, Erb, Garcia, Gibson, Manno (traded), Arnold

Hagerstown starters.  The rotation started the season with Selik, Grace, McKenzie, Hansen and Jordan.  Here’s how these guys and the rest of the pitchers fared in 2011.

• Cameron Selik was a revelation, giving up just one run in his first 29 innings pitched before earning his promotion to high-A.  This after not even being on the radar after his quiet debut in short-A in 2010.  Outlook for next season (from high-A post): starting in the High-A rotation with an eye towards moving upwards.
• Matt Grace was the sole starter in the Hagerstown corps who lasted the entire year in the rotation.  Unfortunately, he was merely average most of the year before tailing off badly with some really bad starts in August which really spoiled his lines. Final season stats: 12-7, 5.17 era.  He gave up a LOT of hits (169 in 132 innings).   Outlook for next season: I’d guess he competes for the high-A rotation, but may be converted to a bullpen arm.
• Christopher McKenzie had a very rough 2011, posting nearly a 7.00 ERA in 13 appearances (10 starts).  He struggled early, lost his rotation spot when the teenage duo of Ray/Cole were placed on the squad, had a couple of DL trips and ended the season by putting in a couple of starts in late August.  This is the 2nd year in a row that McKenzie had a very ugly ERA number; somehow I doubt there will be a 3rd year lasting through the season with numbers that high.   He does have youth on his side though; he doesn’t turn 22 until December.  Outlook for next season: his age and experience put him in the high-A bullpen, but if he can’t get his ERA into respectable figures he will be released.
• Bobby Hansen was an enigma this year; he went 5-1 in 10 early season starts with a 4.10 era (most of that sullied by a 6 run first inning in a one-off mid-April start), then suddenly he was pulled from the rotation.  After a number of weeks he was placed on the DL and resided there the rest of the season.  Commenters here pointed out that he was “hurt” and was going to be “out for a while” but I’m not sure official word ever came down.  Outlook for next season: get healthy, then get back into the low-A rotation.  He’s young and he has time to move up with good performance.
• Taylor Jordan put together the start of a great season in the Hagerstown rotation, going 9-4 with a 2.48 era in 18 appearances (17 starts).  However, he went on the DL in early July and never made it off.  Like Hansen, we struggled with information on the injury.   Outlook for next season: same as Hansen: get healthy and get back into the Low-A rotation.
• AJ Cole surprisingly joined up the full season low-A team (as opposed to my guess of pitching in the GCL as a 19-yr old) in May and at times showed the upper-end ceiling he has, and the reason he earned such over-slot money as a 4th rounder in 2010.   He exceeded expectations through May and June, then fatigued in July and August, dragging down his season stats.  On the year: 4-7, 4.04 era but most importantly a 108/24 k/bb ratio in just 89 innings as one of the youngest arms in low-A.   Not a bad first pro season.  Outlook for next season: I’d guess he starts again in Low-A, looking for more consistency before moving up.
• Robbie Ray joined the team the same time as Cole, but frankly out-impressed his more heralded 2010 draftee.  For weeks Ray was pitching as if he were wise beyond his years, and though he also tired in August (especially in his last two starts, which raised his season era from 2.31 to 3.13) his season can only be considered a great success.  Final numbers: 2-3, 3.13 era and 95/38 k/bb in 89 IP.  Outlook for next season: Same as Cole; I think he starts in low-A again with an eye towards a quick move upwards.
• Ryan Demmin was an undrafted 2010 FA who pitched lights out in short-A but who couldn’t handle the jump to High-A.  Upon his eventual arrival in Hagerstown he entered the rotation and pitched pretty effectively; 3-1 with a 1.69 ERA in 5 starts.   For some reason he was dumped back out of the rotation in late August and ended the year with a few relief appearances.  Across 3 levels he was 8-2 with a 4.25 era with pretty good k/9 numbers.  Outlook for next season: I’m guessing he’s destined for the bullpen; his k/9 as a lefty bodes well for his future.  Potomac middle reliever.
• Matt Swyndenberg improved in his 3rd pro season, still relatively young for the level but putting up good numbers.  He toiled out of the bullpen in long relief for most of the summer, posting a 2.66 ERA in 50 innings across 20 appearances.  When he got a chance to start, he was up and down, with some good and some bad starts and a 4.67 ERA split.  He’s not a big time K/9 guy and seems destined to try to make it as a reliever moving forward.  Outlook for next season: Potomac middle-relief.
• Paul Applebee served as the long-man/spot starter all season, picking up 72 relief innings and another 24 2/3 in 5 spot starts.   He repeated low-A in 2011 and improved marginally.  He was a 10th rounder out of college in 2009 and needs to move up.   Outlook for next season: Potomac middle-relief, perhaps a similar long-man/spot starter role.
• Shane McCatty got one spot start in the middle of the season, a high point for his otherwise unimpressive year.   A 6.63 era in 57 (mostly) relief innings is a distinct decline from his numbers at the same level last year.   Unfortunately Nepotism is at play here; if it weren’t for his last name, he may have already been released.  Outlook for next season: As with McKenzie, the low-A bullpen looks to filled with rising arms from Auburn and the GCL. I’m guessing he moves to the Potomac bullpen with a short leash.

Hagerstown Relievers: taking a look at the relief corps at the end of the season, and talk about other hurlers on the team.

• Most of Hagerstown’s relievers were, well, bad.  Eusubio, Brown, Weaver, and Holt all sported ERAs at the 5.00 level or above in various amounts of innings.   Bates, Jenkins and Hanks were each demoted mid-season (though Bates made it back to low-A at the end of the season).  Outlook for next season: all of them need to show they can product in low-A before moving on.
• Neil Holland earned a promotion to Potomac where he was even better than in low-A.  Outlook for next season: (from high-A post): moving on up again, starting in the AA bullpen.
• Fan Favorite Christopher Manno put up consistently ridiculously good numbers in a late-innings/closer role for Hagerstown before being packaged in the Jonny Gomes deal.  We wish him well.
• After Manno was traded, Ben Graham took over in the shared-closer role and pitched well enough.  He was 4-4 with a 3.30 era in 46 relief innings.  He’s another non-drafted FA after the 2010 draft that may add value to the organization.   Outlook for next season: middle-relief in Potomac.

Danny Rosenbaum was your opening day starter, and best hurler of 2011. Photo Jeff Mankie/News & Messenger via insidenova.com

(3rd in a series; scroll back to earlier posts for AAA, AA reviews).

The defending Carolina League champs Potomac had some big shoes to fill, with a number of their impact players from last year departing and moving onwards and upwards.  2011 saw an interesting rotation full of question marks, and by the end of the season the rotation featured one of the franchise’s most important pitching prospects.

Here’s the status of the Potomac pitching staff at the end of the season (ages are as of 9/30/11)

• Rotation: Demny 22, Selik 24, Olbrychowski 25, Bronson (L) 24, Solis 23
• Bullpen: Smoker (L) 22, Nelo 25, Testa (L) 26, Wort 22, Holland 23, Frias 22, Holder 24
• Spot starts: Clegg (L) 24
• Promotions: CMartinez, RMartin, Lehman, Rosenbaum
• up-and-back: Bronson
• Demotions: Demmin, Weaver
• DL: EDavis 24
• Cut/released (spring training and/or mid-season): Fabian, Phillibaum, Dill, Beno, Caldera 25, Morrison 24

Potomac starters.  The rotation started the season with Rosenbaum, Holder, Frias, Demny and Clegg.

• Danny Rosenbaum was your opening day starter, and easily your best starter in High-A this year.  He put in 20 appearances (19 starts) and pitched to a 6-5 record, 2.59 era, 1.17 whip with 108/41 k/bb in 132 IP.  The lefty looks like another in a long line of lefties this system is developing; not necessarily overpowering fastballs but pitches with guile and control.  Much like Lannan, Milone or even teammate Solis, Rosenbaum will probably be a difficult pitcher to evaluate going forward, with scouts not knowing how to rate his ceiling as a starter.  Outlook for next season: Rosenbaum was promoted at the very end of the season and had six very productive AA starts.  He should start in Harrisburg in 2012.
• Trevor Holder has been fighting the “overdraft” label since his 2009 drafting as a 3rd rounder despite a less-than-stellar college career.  After the Strasburg money outlay, many pundits thought that his drafting represented an “affordability” pick, and sure enough he signed as a college senior for far less than slot.  Holder was given no less than 14 Potomac starts before mercifully being demoted to the bullpen, where he put in a few more relief appearances the rest of the season.  Final season numbers: 3-8, 5.77 era.  Outlook for next season: Holder should start 2012 in Potomac’s bullpen, and it would be the fourth year he’ll be in high-A.  He’s officially in “organization guy” territory now, and unless he markedly improves soon he’ll be closer to a release than a future with this team.
• Marcos Frias is an interesting case; in 2010 he was awful as a starter for Potomac, yet he was given another shot in 2011.   He got four early-season starts and wasn’t half bad (he had two good starts and one really bad one in April) and was demoted to the bullpen when Selik got promoted.  Once he got to the bullpen?  He was fantastic, posting a 1.67 era in 54 relief innings.  The DSL graduate is still very young, and the Nats may have found a valuable bullpen arm.  Outlook for next season: Frias should be in the AA bullpen, perhaps in the mix to be the closer.
• Paul Demny was the only hurler in the rotation who started and stuck in the rotation for the entire season, finishing the year with 26 starts, a 10-10 record and a 4.32 era.  He’s still young (he’s in his fourth pro season and has just turned 22), but he’s also at the point in his pro career that he needs to start showing progress above the A level.  As a JuCo signee he’s rule 5 eligible this off-season but there’s very little chance he gets selected (at least in the MLB phase), so the team has a bit more time to evaluate him.  But 2012 is a make or break year for him.  Outlook for next season: Perhaps he starts in high-A again, but he could be pushed up to the AA rotation depending on how the rosters shake out.  I’m not sure he did enough to earn a promotion on performance in 2011, but a numbers game of recent rising college draftees may put him on the AA roster.
• Mitchell Clegg had nine mostly poor-to-incredibly bad starts before being demoted to the bullpen, at which point he had a couple of spot starts but worked mostly in the bullpen the rest of the year.  On the year: 4-7, 5.50 era and he was equally bad out of the bullpen (starting split: 5.11 era, relieving split: 6.00 era).  Outlook for next season: he’ll be lucky to make the 2012 Potomac bullpen, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s released after spring training.
• Cameron Selik earned a promotion to Potomac after five stellar outings in Hagerstown (where he gave up exactly one earned run in 29 innings) but wasn’t able to replicate that success in high-A.  He gave the team 16 starts before being moved to the bullpen in August.  As a starter in high-A he was 4-9 with a 4.57 era.  Outlook for next season: he’ll be in the Potomac rotation, looking to improve his 2nd year at the level.
• Adam Olbrychowski was struggling during the first half as a middle-reliever in the Potomac pen, then was surprisingly inserted into the rotation, where he performed markedly better.  He posted a 5.63ERA in 16 relief innings, then posted a 3.71 era in 15 starts during the second half.   I may be wrong, but I believe he’s rule-5 eligible this coming off season, though his status as a mediocre-to-halfway decent right hander in high-A probably keeps him safe for the time being.  Outlook for next season: good question.  He’ll be 26 and in his 6th minor league season next year, but he clearly improved once he hit the rotation.  I’d say he starts in the AA rotation with a short leash.
• Evan Bronson logged a lot of frequent flier miles this season; he was left in extended spring training, then joined up with Potomac a few cycles into the season.  He lasted a few starts, got dropped from the rotation when Solis joined the team, made a quick appearance in AAA and a spot start in AA, then finished the season back in the Potomac rotation.  Phew.  All in all he posted a 5-5 record in high-A in 23 appearances and 12 starts.  He was clearly better in relief than he was as a starter, often putting in long relief stints and holding down the fort.  Outlook for next season: He’s put in good numbers in high-A two years running; time for him to move to AA.  I’d guess he gets a look as a starter but serves as the long man/spot starter in AA.
• Sammy Solis had a slight injury in the spring, then started in low-A (a bit low for an accomplished college draftee of his stature).  Once he made it to high-A though, he did not disappoint.  In 10 starts he posted a 6-2 record with a 2.72 era, a 1.28 whip and had 53/11 k/bb in 56 1/3 innings.  Whats really interesting about Solis is his splits; despite being a lefty he dominated right handed hitters, posting a 1.97 era split against them (albeit with a .260 BA against).  Outlook for next season: Solis remains one of our better starter prospects though, and should advance quickly up the system in 2012.  He will start in the AA rotation and may end the season in AAA.
• Erik Davis struggled in AA, earning a demotion to high-A, where he was even worse.  0-5 with a 6.75 era in six starts, ending the season on the DL (unclear if it was for a legitimate injury or a roster manipulation preparing the team for the playoffs).   Outlook for next season: (from the AA post): he starts in the AA bullpen on a short leash.
• Other Starters of note (non-rehab): Alex Caldera had two awful starts and was summarily released in April.   He was acquired for cash from Kansas City in late March and after his release picked up with the low-A affiliate of Florida.

Potomac Relievers:

• Pat Lehman was fantastic early on as the closer and earned a mid-season promotion.  Outlook for next season: (from the AA post): he sticks in the AA bullpen, competing for the closer role.
• Hector Nelo took over as the primary closer after Lehman’s promotion and was similarly productive.  He had a 2.40 era in 41+ innings and earned 18 saves. He really has turned around his career; getting released in April by Texas, signing with Washington two days later and looking like a new pitcher.  He was a 25-yr old in high-A though; he’ll need to produce at the next level in 2012.  Outlook for next season: AA bullpen in perhaps a setup role.
• Josh Smoker has remade his own career post arm injury, putting up great numbers in a later-inning relief mode.  On the season he was 5-2 with a 2.31 era but more importantly 56 Ks in 50 innings.  He’s rule-5 eligible but is in little danger of getting plucked away.  Outlook for next season: AA bullpen.
• Joe Testa and Neil Holland were both excellent in middle-relief.  Unfortunately Testa is way too old for high-A and may be considered the “extra guy” we got in the Ramos-Capps deal.  Holland is much younger and pitched his way out of Hagerstown early.  Outlook for next season: AA bullpen for both, though Testa may not be long for the organization, losing out in a numbers game.
• Rob Wort couldn’t follow up on his excellent 2010 numbers in Potomac and took a step back in 2011.  He’s young though.  Outlook for next season: he repeats high-A, again in the bullpen.
• Dean Weaver and Ryan Demmin both were demoted down to Hagerstown; we’ll cover them in the Low-A review.
• Other relievers with appearances: Rafael Martin was dominant and earned his promotion to AA.  Kyle Morrison was released after just a few appearances early on.  Carlos Martinez bounced around the organization and pitched a few ineffective innings for Potomac.

Brad Peacock was your AA pitcher of the year, and earned two subsequent promotions in 2011. Photo via bleacherreport.com

(2nd in a series.  See yesterday’s post for Syracuse).

The Harrisburg rotation started the year with two starlets, a couple question marks and a few guys who had MLB experience (either in the rotation or on the DL, waiting to get their shot).  It was interesting to see a rotation in AA that was (on average) younger and had more MLB time than the team’s AAA roster, but that’s how this season played out.  No less than twenty guys got “starts” for the AA team this year, including a number of rehab starts and even more “passing through” starts for guys on their way out of the organization.

Here’s the status of the Harrisburg pitching staff at the end of the season (ages are as of 9/30/11)

• Starters: Roark 24, Arneson 27, Martis 24, OPerez(L) 30, Rosenbaum (L) 23
• Bullpen: Lehman 24, VanAllen (L) 27,  Barthmaier 27, McCoy (L) 23, RMartin 27, HPena 26
• Spot starts: CMartinez 27
• Promotions: Mandel, Meyers, Mattheus, Tatusko, Zinicola,  Peacock, Mock (post rehab)
• up-and-back: Arneson, Pena, CMartinez
• demotions: RMartin (from last year), EDavis
• DL: Atilano 26
• Cut/released post Spring or mid-season: Leatherman, Novoa, Spradlin, Dials, CJames, Alaniz, Chico
• Missing: JJones 29

Harrisburg starters.  The rotation started the season with Meyers, Tatusko, Atilano, Peacock and Erik Davis.  Here’s how these guys and the rest of the starters fared in 2011.

• Brad Meyers got the season opening start and it was clear after 6 starts he was ready to be promoted, going 3-2 with a 2.48 era and a sub 1.00 whip.  Outlook for next season: (from AAA post): Begins 2012 in AAA, competes for MLB #5 starter in spring.
• Ryan Tatusko was mediocre at best in a AA starting role, putting up a 5.94 era in 12 appearances (9 starts) before being dumped to the bullpen when Oliver Perez was ready to go.  His last couple of appearances were decent though, and he got promoted to fill an opening in AAA’s bullpen, where he played most of the season.  Outlook for next season: (from AAA post): Org guy, in AAA’s bullpen or in another organization.
• Luis Atilano only got 2 starts in and was hammered before hitting the DL, where he remained the rest of the season.  He’s 26 this year and was DFA’d, cleared waivers and accepted his assignment, indicating that he’s probably not in the future plans of the team.  Outlook for next season: I’m guessing he’s given his release and will be a minor league free agent.
• Brad Peacock tore up AA, putting up a 10-2 record with 129 Ks in just 98 IP.  Most questioned why he was left to languish in AA for so long, clearly having earned a promotion.  But he’s young (only 23 this year) and there was not really a hole in the AAA rotation for him until Detwiler’s promotion opened one up.  Outlook for next season: (from AAA post): Loses out on #5 starter competition, starts in AAA, possibly in MLB bullpen b/c of his arm.
• Erik Davis was obtained in trade for disgruntled utility infielder Alberto Gonzalez, had a bunch of starts, a DL stint, and then a string of awful starts that got him demoted to Potomac (where he didn’t fare much better).  Final AA line: 5-7, 4.79 era, 1.61 whip and 93/41 k/bb in 94 ip.  He’s got great K/9 but not much else.   Outlook for next season: there’s not much use for a 25yr old right-hander who can’t cut it in High-A, though his precipitous drop in stats from 2010 to 2011 is cause for hope that this was an aberration year.  I’ll guess he features in the AA bullpen in 2012.
• Erik Arneson started the year with 3 pretty decent AAA starts, then suddenly was in the AA bullpen.  This was his third year repeating the AA level with this franchise, clearly indicating that the team views him as an organizational guy.  Despite his all-star game appearance and stellar 2011 numbers in AA (8-4, 2.43 era, 1.10 whip in 16 starts and 26 appearances), he’s 27 this year and clearly isn’t going anywhere.  Outlook for next season: Org Guy; either a minor league FA or perhaps floating between our AAA and AA levels as he did this year.
• Shairon Martis is an interesting case; he was in the Nats starting rotation in 2009, and by the spring of 2011 he had successfully passed through waivers and was on our AA squad despite only being 24.  Not surprisingly, he did well, posting a 8-6 record, a 3.05 era, a 1.22 whip, had 146/39 k/bb in 133 ip and threw a 7-inning no-hitter.  And this all proved, what exactly?  As I said over and again during the season’s rotation reviews, Martis getting out AA hitters with ease shows us nothing that we didn’t already know.  We need to see him at least at the AAA level to see if he’s ever going to be the pitcher that showed so much promise when he was promoted to the majors in 2008 as a 21-yr old.  There was word/rumors during spring training that the team wasn’t pleased with his conditioning or his work efforts, perhaps contributing to his being essentially in the franchise “doghouse.” Outlook for next season: He should be in the AAA rotation, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he was stuck in extended spring training by virtue of a numbers issue.
• Tanner Roark got nearly a full season of starts in the AA rotation and didn’t have the greatest season,  In 21 starts he posted a 9-9 record, 4.69 era, 1.40 whip and pedestrian K/9 rates.  He’s younger than his trade mate (Tatusko, both received for Cristian Guzman in mid-2010) so the team will have a bit more patience.  Outlook for next season: I think his starting days are done; i’d think he’ll be converted to a reliever and start in the AA bullpen.
• Oliver Perez was picked up in a relatively high-profile signing after he was unceremoniously released (with $12M still owed on his 2011 contract) by the Mets, who had tired of his poor performances on the mound.  The Nats, surprisingly in my opinion, installed him as a starter in AA and left him there the entire season.   Outside of a quick DL stint he mostly pitched decently, posting a 3-5 record in 15 starts, with a 3.09 Era and a 1.39 whip.  But, as with Martis above, what exactly did we learn from this?  An experienced MLB veteran *should* be getting AA guys out with regularity.  With the troubles the team had with their loogy (see Slaten, Doug‘s inherited runners and WHIP rate on the season), I’m surprised they didn’t try to feature Perez as a lefty out of the bullpen.  Now, with the season over I suppose the team has learned that Perez is now just a mediocre AA starter.  Outlook for next season: Perez will be a FA and probably goes elsewhere to continue his career on a minor league deal, looking to regain a starting job somewhere in the MLB.
• Denny Rosenbaum got a late season call-up after pitching well in high-A all season and continued his excellent season in AA.  His stats for Harrisburg: 3-1, 2.29 era and a sub 1.00 whip in 6 starts.  These numbers were slightly better than what he posted in 20 Potomac games, and he seems to be featuring as a Tom Milone-esque crafty left-hander who is riding under the radar.  Outlook for next season: at 23 he’s still pretty young and will be in the AA rotation with a mind to get promoted after a few starts in the same way Meyers or Peacock earned their way up this year.
• Other guys who got spot starts here and there (non-rehab): Jimmy Barthmaier got a couple spot starts but worked mostly out of the bullpen, sporting a high ERA but good k/9 rates.  Same for journeyman Carlos Martinez, albeit without the good K/9 rates.  Evan Bronson put in a spot start during a brief call up to provide cover for the team during one of their many rain-out induced double headers.  Outlook for next season: Barthmaier and Martinez are org guys and may or may not return.  We’ll cover Bronson in the high-A post, where he spent most of the season.

Harrisburg Relievers: taking a look at the relief corps at the end of the season.

• Rafael Martin and Hassan Pena split the closing duties and both put up great numbers.  Pena was a AAA demotion while Martin seems to be a bit old for the level.  Despite this, Martin is representing the franchise in the Arizona Fall League, so perhaps he’ll feature prominently next year.  Outlook for next season: both guys seem set to be part of the AAA bullpen.
• Pat Lehman and Corey VanAllen both pitched pretty well; Lehman earned a mid-season promotion and put up a 3.71 era in AA, earning a trip to the AFL as well.  VanAllen is older, lefty and had a great K/9 ratio.  Outlook for next season: Lehman stays in the AA pen to start, while VanAllen moves up to AAA as a possible loogy.
• Pat McCoy struggled in AA, putting up a 4.78 era in 52 innings of work, but he’s also very young and had a 9.0 K/9 rate.  Outlook for next season: he’ll start again in AA bullpen, looking to gain on his experiences in 2011.
• The Rest not already mentioned; Barthmaier, Martinez already covered above. 

Other pitchers who appeared in AA of note (not including Rehabbing MLBers): Ryan Mattheus started the season in AA and earned two promotions, ending up with good MLB numbers.  He’ll make the 2012 bullpen as long as he stays healthy. Matt Chico was awful in 10 appearances before being demoted/DL’d and eventually released.  Zech Zinicola and Jeff Mandel started in AA before both being promoted to AAA, where they worked the bulk of the season.  Garrett Mock put in two awful rehab starts en route to his own release.

Tom Milone was your AAA pitching star of 2011. Photo Tom Priddy/Four Seam Images via Milb.com

(editors note before we begin; I’m sure my faithful readers noted that I abandoned the Minor League Rotation Review posts right after the 4th of July.  That was right around the same date I put in notice and began the process of switching consulting engagements.  Free time and post-work free time suddenly evaporated and something had to give.  Paying gigs before volunteer ones unfortunately.)

That being said, I did maintain the good/soso/bad all the way through the season, and did my best to keep up with the various reliever movements (my interest is mostly with the starters in the system).  Now that the regular seasons are over, I’ll do a team-by-team review of the pitchers, the moves and where guys may/should start in 2012.  Ideally this set of reviews should start with the MLB roster, but since the minor leagues are done, I’ll hit them up first.

Syracuse’s rotation started the year with two guys who some thought could have made the MLB roster, two guys who were closer to the “organizational guy” title than a spot on the 25-man, and a relatively young up and comer who had been cruising up the organization under the radar.  By the end of the year it held three of our better starting pitcher prospects to go with two guys who are not long for the organization.

Here’s the status of the Syracuse pitching staff at the end of the season (ages are as of 9/30/11)

• Rotation: Maya 30, Stammen 27, Meyers 26, Peacock 23, JD Martin 28
• Bullpen: Mandel 26, Wilkie 27, Severino(L) 26, Zinicola 26, CGarcia 26, Hyde (L) 26
• Spot starter: Tatusko 26
• Promotions: Kimball 26, Mattheus 27, Detwiler 25,  Milone(L) 24, Balester 25
• 9/1 promotions: Maya, Stammen, Peacock, Severino
• up-and-back: Stammen, Maya, Severino
• demotions: Martis (from last year), Chico, Mock, Arneson, Bronson (spot start), CMartinez
• cut/released from 2010 or this year: Meredith, Kown, Bergmann, Bisenius, Romero (L) (opted out), Carr 27, Mock 28
• missing: Villone 41

Syracuse starters.  The rotation started the season with Maya, Detwiler, Mock, Milone and Stammen, with JD Martin as the season-long spot starter.

• Yuniesky Maya: failed to make the team out of spring training, was the opening day starter in Syracuse, but struggled for long parts of the season.  Got a call-up and did not impress in Washington and sulked up on his return.  Finished the year 4-9, 5.00 era, 1.24 whip and 98/28 k/bb ratio in 129 2/3 innings.  Outlook for next season: He probably can’t make the MLB rotation again, and probably returns to AAA for 2012.  His fastball was never as good as advertised and he isn’t as good as countryman Livan Hernandez at getting guys out with control and guile.  At this point, this signing looks like a failure.
• Ross Detwiler: Promoted mid-season just before the-all star break and has pitched considerably better in the majors than he did in AAA.  In fact, there was some debate at the time of his promotion whether he was the deserving pitcher to come up.  Final AAA numbers: 6-6, 4.53 era 1.49 whip, 63/32 k/bb in 87 1/3 innings.  Outlook for next season: He’s officially out of options and can’t be assigned to AAA without passing through waivers.  He WILL make the 2012 MLB team, likely as a #5 starter with an eye towards moving to the bullpen if he falters.
• Garrett Mock: started strong, then had two incredibly bad outings and went on the DL.  His rehab travels around the low minors became some what of a joke, but when he returned he failed to impress, and was DFA’d in early September to make way for 9/1 callups to the majors.  Final AAA line: 0-3, 6.28 era, 1.67 whip, 32/24 k/bb in 28 innings.  His stats at all levels are worse.  Outlook for next season: there are plenty of people who openly questioned why Mock occupied a 40-man spot for so long.  I’m guessing he picks up with another team and tries to start fresh with a new organization for 2012.
• Tom Milone: posted his third straight 12-win season in successive levels and earned a pre-9/1 call up.  He’s young, he’s lefty, and he’s got impeccable control.  Final AAA numbers: 12-6, 3.22 era, 1.03 whip and 155/16 k/bb in 148 1/3 innings.  Another great season for the Nats 2010 minor league pitcher of the year, an award he is in the running for again in 2011.  Outlook for next season: He has 3-4 more September starts to audition for next year’s rotation.  The big question with Milone is whether his 89-90mph fastball and control will be enough in the majors.  I’m predicting he falls victim to a numbers/options status game and starts next year in AAA.
• Craig Stammen: all around nice guy never once featured in the team’s plans this year, officially crossing over from starter potential to organizational guy in 2011.  He put together a decent season, tailing off in the end to sully his overall numbers, but was never threatening to get a call-up or another shot in the Nats rotation.  AAA stats: 10-7, 4.75 era, 1.43 whip, and 127/40 k/bb in 142 innings.  Outlook for next season: He becomes 2012’s version of JD Martin, the AAA-bound starter and innings eater.  I think he’ll stay on the 40-man because he does have value, and has one option left, but after 2012 he’s a DFA candidate.  Too bad, because he’s a good-guy and deserves better.
• Brad Meyers: earned one of the first promotions of the season after recovering from injury and dominating in his first few AA starts.   He struggled upon first arriving at AAA, hit the DL briefly, but finished strong.  Final AAA numbers: 6-5, 3.48 era, 1.31 whip and 74/15 k/bb in 95 ip.  Outlook for next season: I think Meyers gets added to the 40-man roster ahead of the Rule-5 draft for protection, but he is at least 7th in the starter pecking order (Strasburg, Zimmermann, Lannan, Detwiler, Peacock, and Milone) right now, so he starts in AAA.
• Brad Peacock: Peacock absolutely dominated AA, to the point where it was long past the time to promote him when he finally was moved to AAA.  He had two rough starts but more than a few great ones, and finished AAA with a 5-1, 3.19 era, 1.25 whip and 48/24 k/bb in 48 innings.  On the season his minor league numbers were fantastic and earned him the organization’s Minor League Pitcher of the Year; 15-3, 2.39 era, 177/47 k/bb in 146 2/3 total innings.  Outlook for next season: He’s very young (only 23) and certainly could use another year of seasoning in AAA.  He may end up competing for the #5 rotation spot with Milone, unless a new starters comes in via trade or FA.  On the other hand, if he doesn’t master his secondary pitches he’ll be destined for the bullpen, and Rizzo loves hard-throwers in the pen, so I could see him featuring as a righty out of the bullpen next season.  We’ll see.
• JD Martin: Outrighted before the season and then signed a minor-league deal, Martin was AAA’s long man/spot starter.  He ended up with 14 starts and pedestrian numbers on the season: 3-7, 3.93 era in 30 appearances.  His fate was sealed in January when he was outrighted and nobody else sniffed; he’s a soft-throwing righty who is a good AAA pitcher until his spot is needed.   Outlook for next season: he could be back in the same role he was in this year, unless a numbers game forces his release.
• Other guys who got spot starts here and there (non-rehab): Erik Arneson (started in AAA then was dumped to AA despite 3 decent starts.  See the AA post) and Ryan Tatusko (pitched mostly in relief with 2 AAA spot starts after a mid-season promotion).  See the AA post for thoughts on Arneson and below for Tatusko.

Syracuse Relievers: taking a look at the relief corps at the end of the season.

• Relievers Cole Kimball, Ryan Mattheus and Collin Balester were each promoted up at various points during the season and each performed pretty well at the MLB level.  Outlook for next season: Kimball may start 2012 on the DL post surgery.  Mattheus should earn a bullpen spot after pitching well.  Balester’s spot is more tenuous; he’ll be out of options and has not really impressed at either level in 2011.  I’m guessing he’ll lose out in a long man competition to someone like Tom Gorzelanny and get a DFA at the end of spring training 2012.
• Local Favorite Josh Wilkie served as the AAA closer and put up good numbers; 3.13 era, 1.36 whip, 57/21 k/bb in 60 1/3 innings pitched.  Outlook for next season: He’ll get a spring training invite but seems destined to return to AAA to wait for injuries or an opportunity.
• Athualpa Severino got a 9/1 call up and finally featured in a MLB game, showcasing a big fastball for a little guy.  Outlook for next season: He’s a little old for a prospect (27) but could feature as a LOOGY in 2012, especially since the team is so thin on that particular speciality.
• Everyone else (Mandel 26, Zinicola 26, CGarcia 26, Hyde (L) 26, Tatusko 26) in the AAA bullpen seems destined to be organizational guys, unfortunately.  Jeff Mandel passed through waivers and toiled decently this year.  Zech Zinicola was a rule-5 draftee who got returned and put up great numbers, but seems to be a AAA ceiling guy.  Christian Garcia didn’t have great numbers in the Yankees organization but the team took a flyer on him.  Lee Hyde has already passed through waivers successfully and was more or less awful in 2011.  Lastly Ryan Tatusko regressed badly in 2011 after a stellar 2010.  He was demoted to the bullpen and pitched mostly in relief for AAA this year, getting a couple of spot starts that he was just “soso” in.  Outlook for next season: All these guys will be back in AAA or with another organization, trying to keep the dream alive.

Other pitchers who appeared in AAA of note (not including Rehabbing MLBers): Hassan Pena pitched 7 horrible innings and was demoted.  Matt Chico was similarly bad and was DL’d/demoted before getting released.  Philly castoff JC Romero had 16 appearances and pitched well before opting out of his contract because the team hadn’t promoted him (a surprise, given our loogy struggles this year).  A year after Adam Carr was put on the 40-man to protect him, he was flat-out released after an injury riddled season (lets hope the team re-signs him and he gets another shot).  Both Evan Bronson and Carlos Martinez put in brief AAA outings before returning to their normal teams.  Lastly I put in Ron Villone as “missing” because he was in our Spring Training camp but never made it onto any roster.  We didn’t necessarily hear any announcement, but I suspect he retired after not making the team out of camp.

After reviewing all the staffs at each level, I’ll cull the above predictions into a summarized 2012 projected staff throughout the system.

Frankly, I did not think we could get Purke signed. Photo AP/Nati Harnik

Upon starting to read Nationals press releases post 8/15/11 signing deadline, I was ecstatic and surprised by what transpired last night.  We got the first five draft picks signed for a total of about $16.5M spent.

Anthony Rendon and Alex Meyer were never in doubt in my opinion; neither was going back to school to try to marginally improve on their draft standing.  (Nor was Kylin Turnbull, our 4th rounder, who got a $325k deal out of Juco).  Rendon got a major league deal (i.e., an immediate spot on the 40-man roster), which probably was to be expected given his stature and his agent Scott Boras.  My guess is that Boras is starting to press for 40-man spots for his marquee players more and more and fighting less and less for these massive bonuses knowing that the 40-man spot accelerates the time it takes for these prospects to reach free agency by 2-3 years or more.

Brian Godwin got a $3M deal, or $1M more than it took for Meyer to sign.  Clearly the Nats had to buy him out of another year in college, where he and his counsel thought he could become a top-10 talent.

Most surprising: the signing of Matt Purke.  When Purke announced he wasn’t going to pitch in the Cape Cod league, I figured right then he wasn’t going to sign.  Why would he take a 3rd round money or slightly higher (somewhere between $425k and $800k) as a bonus when he got offered $6M out of high school and knows that a dominant junior season would put him in the discussion for #1 overall in 2012’s draft (and the probable $7-8M deal it would guarantee, as Gerrit Cole just got from Pittsburgh).  What the public didn’t know came out in the press releases: Purke let the Nats do not only an in-depth physical but an MRI with the injected dye to highlight injuries within his shoulder.  Purke also did private throwing sessions for the team.   They guaranteed him a 40-man roster spot as well (also incredibly surprising), but as mentioned above probably traded bonus money for that spot.

The usage of 40-man spots as a negotiating tool leaves the Nats slightly roster hampered; we now have 7 spots (and one rule5 draftee) on the roster who have never appeared in a major league game and seem set to start 2012 in the minors (Purke, Severino, Carr, Marrero, Rendon, Harper and Corey Brown).

However, Nats fans can now salivate at the selection of upper-ceiling arms that the team will be able to select from in a few years.  We can add Purke and Meyer immediately to this list: Strasburg and Zimmermann (1st and 2nd rounders) seem set to be the 1-2 for this rotation for the next several years.  Sammy Solis (2nd rounder) has looked ok in Potomac in his first year.  Youngsters AJ Cole (4th) and Robbie Ray (12th) have both looked fantastic in low-A.   “Found money” starters Brad Meyers (5th), Tom Milone (10th) and Brad Peacock (a draft-and-follow 41st rounder) are all pitching at AAA with varying degrees of success but all well younger than their AAA counterparts.   Even 2007’s high-end arms not already mentioned (Ross Detwiler 1st, Josh Smoker 2nd and Jack McGeary in the 6th) are not out of the running and all may feature at least as bullpen arms in the future.

How about a 2014 rotation of Strasburg, Zimmermann, Purke, Peacock and some high-priced ace FA?  That sounds pretty good.

Is Nathan Karns ready to make his mark on the organization? Photo perfectgame.org

Here are the daily links from NationalsProspects, for reference below:

• Wednesday 7/6 game reviews (Martin, Martis, Demny, Ray, Bates, Karns)
• Thursday 7/7 game reviews (Milone, Wang (rehab), Selik, Cole, Demmin, GCL off)
• Friday 7/8 game reviews (Stammen, Harrisburg rainout, Rosenbaum, Hagerstown rainout, Dupra, Baez)
• Saturday 7/9 game reviews (Maya, Davis/Roark, Olbrychowski, Grace/Jordan, Estevez, Medina/Encarnation)
• Sunday 7/10 game reviews (Gaudin rehab, Arneson, Solis, Applebee, Meza, McKenzie)

Good

• Tough loss for JD Martin on 7/6: He gave up 2 hits over 6 innings but both were solo homers in a 2-0 loss.
• Shairon Martis again dominated a AA team on 7/6 (on day 2 of Harper-mania); 7IP, 4H, ER, 2B, 6K.  Byron Kerr featured this start on masnsports.com
• Another excellent start for Robbie Ray on 7/6: 6IP, 4H, 0R, 2BB, 7K.
• Nathan Karns put in his latest statement game in the GCL on 7/6: 4IP, 0H, 0R, BB, 6K.  Its time to promote him.
• Fantastic Start for Tommy Milone on 7/7: 7IP, 2H, 0R, 2BB, 6K
• Another great re-hab start for Chien Ming Wang on 7/7: 5IP, 2H, 0R, 0BB, 2K.
• AJ Cole continues to impress as a youngster in low-A.  7/7 line: 6IP, 3H, 0R, 0BB, 7K.
• Erik Davis got 10 ks in 5 innings on 7/8 but still managed to lose: 5IP, 6H, 3R, 3ER, 0BB, 10K, HR.
• Taylor Jordan won the nightcap on 7/9 for Hagerstown with an excellent outing: 7IP, 4H, 0R, 0BB, 2K.
• Wirkin Estevez put in an excellent outing for Auburn on  7/9: 6IP, 4H, 0R, BB, 7K.
• Silvio Medina (who I thought had been promoted out of the GCL) was dominant on 7/9: 4IP, 3H, 2R, 0ER, 0BB, 7K.
• An excellent 2nd Potomac start for Sammy Solis on 7/10: 7IP, 4H, 0ER, 2BB, 5K.  This is the pitcher we’ve been waiting for.

Bad

• Cameron Selik just can’t make the adjustment to high-A, taking another loss on 7/7: 5IP, 6H, 4R, 4ER, 3BB, 2K.
• Ryan Demmin took another bad loss for Auburn on 7/7: 5⅓ IP, 5H, 4H, 4ER, 0BB, 2K, 2HR.
• Brian Dupra got a spot start (?) for Auburn on 7/8 and got knocked around a bit: 4⅔ IP, 7H, 4R, 3ER, 0BB, 5K.
• Gregory Baez didn’t finish the third inning for the GCL on 7/8: 2⅔ IP, 4H, 4R, 4ER, 3BB, 4K, HR.   But it wasn’t his fault the team lost; his bullpen gave up another 13 runs.
• Yunesky Maya threw another egg on 7/9: 5IP, 9H, 4R, 4ER, 0BB, 0K.
• Tanner Roark got battered around on 7/9 after returning from the inactive list: 3⅔ IP, 7H, 4R, 4ER, 3BB, 4K.  Its his third such bad outing in a row but unless someone comes off the DL, it doesn’t seem like there’s a natural replacement for him.
• Adam Olbrychowski got scorched in Potomac on 7/9: 4⅔ IP, 11H, 7R, 6ER, 2BB, 2K
• Matt Grace didn’t have the best outing on 7/9 either: 1ip, 5H, 4R, 4ER, 0BB, 0K, 0HR.  Yanked after the first, Steve McCatty came in and pitched long relief to get the win.
• Pedro Encarnation, who can’t seem to catch a break, got battered for the GCL Nats on 7/9: 3IP, 6H, 6R, 6ER, BB, 2K, 2HR.
• Not the best rehab start for Chad Gaudin on 7/10: 4IP, 7H, 4ER, 6K, 0BB.  Seven hits and 6 Ks.  At least he didn’t walk anyone.
• Christian Meza added more runs to his ERA on 7/10 in Auburn: 4⅓ IP, 8H, 6R, 5ER, 2BB, 3K.
• Christopher McKenzie seemed to get of the schnide for the GCL on 7/10: 5IP, 2H, 0R, 0BB, 7K.

Mediocre/Inconclusive

• A bit of an unlucky 7/6 start for Paul Demny: 7IP, 6H, 4R, 4ER, BB, 3K, HR.
• Colin Bates proved to be an escape artist on 7/6: 5IP, 8H, 1R, 0ER, 2BB, K.  That’s 10 baserunners in 5 innings but only gave up one unearned run.
• Craig Stammen had a soso start on 7/8: 6IP, 5H, 3R, 2ER, 2BB, 4K, HR.   A quality start for sure, but nothing dominant.
• Danny Rosenbaum didn’t pitch that badly on 7/8, but took the loss nonetheless.  5IP, 6H, 4R, 1ER, 3BB, 4K, HR
• Erik Arneson was pretty good for Harrisburg on 7/10: 6IP 7H, 3ER, 2BB, 8K.  I’m a tough grader for guys who have pitched above the level they’re currently playing.
• Paul Applebee pitched a decent start for Hagerstown on 7/10: 5IP, 4H, 2ER, 0BB, 3K.  He seems to have earned his way back into the Hagerstown rotation.  At least until we figure out what happened to Bobby Hansen.

Relievers of Note and other Thoughts

• Its really hard to tell who is in the “rotation” in the GCL.  As you’ll see, Baez “started” a game wednesday and then again saturday.  King, Mieses and Karns all were skipped this time around.
• So far so good with the JC Romero experiment.  He’s had several outings that have all gone pretty well.
• Tommy Milone got a well-earned International League all-star spot this week.  See you in September!
• Brad Peacock‘s performance this year has vaulted him into the Baseball America mid-season top 50.  Bryce Harper, now the youngest player in AA, is the new #1, overtaking Angels OF prospect Mike Trout.   Peacock is still listed as having a #3/#4 starter ceiling; this coincides with concerns i’ve read over his 3rd and (lack of a) 4th pitch.
• Potomac, after being disappointed by the missing of Harper, may be making alternate plans to build a new facility.  According to this Baseball America link, the owner Art Silber is announcing later this month a new site and new plans.

Trends

Top 3 starters deserving promotion: Karns, Ray, Milone
Top 3 starters whose jobs are in jeopardy: Roark, Selik, Meza

Detwiler gets the next shot at the bigs. Photo Haraz Ghanbari/AP via federalbaseball.com

Here are the daily links from NationalsProspects, for reference below:

• Friday 7/1 game reviews (Martin, Martis, Selik, Ray, Bates, Baez).
• Saturday 7/2 game reviews (Milone, Davis & Perez, Wang (rehab), Cole, Demmin, GCL off)
• Sunday 7/3 game reviews (Stammen, Roark, Rosenbaum, Grace, Estevez, Marcelino)
• Monday 7/4 game reviews (Maya, Peacock, Olbrychowski, Jordan, Meza, McKenzie)
• Tuesday 7/5 game reviews (Gaudin, Arneson, Solis, Applebee, MRodriguez & Lopez, King)

Good

• Shairon Martis had another dominant start in AA: 6IP, 7H, 2R, 1ER, BB, 6K, HR.  He needs to move up.
• Another good start for Robbie Ray on 7/1: 6IP, 5H, 3R, ER, 2BB, 6K, reversing his slide over the past few games.
• Gregory Baez had a nice little 4-inning “start” on 7/1: 4ip, 2hits, 0 runs, 3Ks and 1BB.
• Another excellent start for Tom Milone on 7/2: 6⅓ IP, 4H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 6K.  Unfortunately the most deserving AAA starter is NOT getting the spot start for the big club this week, as Detwiler’s improved form an Milone’s lack of 40-man status conspires against him.  No worries Tom; your time will come (perhaps as Zimmermann’s innings-limit replacement in late august).
• Chien-Ming Wang threw his 2nd rehab start on 7/2, this time in high-A for Potomac.  As Adam Kilgore reports, he pitched 4 scoreless inning, allowing 1 hit and 2 walks.  He reportedly hit 91mph, which is great news.  I pulled the Pitch f/x data from Wang’s 2007 season prior to his injury to try to get a feel for what he was capable of back then.  Here’s the data from June 6th, 2007, one of Wang’s best games that season.  Average fastball of 94, peaks of 97, with great separation between his fastball and his change-up.  I didn’t realize he threw that hard (if you believe the Pitch f/x data; it is spotty that early in the system’s history).  If the goal is to get his speed back to 94-97, he’s got a long way to go.
• An excellent start for Matt Grace on 7/3: 7IP, 5H, 2R, 0ER, 0BB, 5K.  Its good to see him rebound from a couple of sub-par performances lately.
• Brad Peacock had an uncharacteristically (for him) wild 7/4 start in Harrisburg but still got the dominant victory.  Line: 6ip, 5hits 1run (unearned), 9ks and 2 bbs.
• Christopher McKenzie surprisingly was given a GCL start on 7/4 and he did pretty well: 4ip, 3hits, 1 unearned run, 4Ks and 1 walk.  He’s clearly too old for
• Paul Applebeee had an excellent spot start in Hagerstown (filling in for the newly promoted Solis) on 7/5: 5IP, 4H, 1ER, 0BB, 5K.  Since there’s now a hole in that rotation and the Short-A squad being so inconsistent, I wonder if Applebee sticks there for a bit.

Bad

• Cameron Selik got waxed in Potomac on 7/1: 5+ IP, 9H, 5R, 5ER, BB, 2K, HR.
• Paul Demmin took a step backwards for Auburn on 7/2: 4⅔ IP, 8H, 5R, 5ER, BB, 4K, 2HR.
• Tanner Roark got tagged for 2 homers in 5 innings en route to another loss.  Line: 5ip, 7H, 4ER, 3BB, 6K, 2 HR, HBP.  10 baserunners in 5 innings continues a mediocre season for Roark.
• Wirkin Estevez continued his up-and-down performances for Auburn on 7/3: 4IP, 6H, 4R, 4ER, BB, 2K.    Two good, two bad so far for the DSL grad.
• Anthony Marcelino got pounded in the GCL on 7/3: 3⅓ IP, 7H, 9R, 6ER, 3BB, 2K.  This was his first start but his third appearance and none have gone very well.
• Christian Meza struggled in Auburn on 7/4 badly, getting knocked around for 5runs on 5 hits in 2 2/3 innings.
• Brandon King got pounded in the GCL on 7/5: 2⅔ IP, 6H, 7R, 7ER, 2BB, 2K, HR.

Mediocre/Inconclusive

• JD Martin‘s 7/1 spot start was barely mediocre.  5⅔ IP, 10H, 3R, 3ER, 0BB, 2K, HR.   Though I’ll ask the audience, at what point does Martin stop becoming a “spot starter?”  He’s got 9 on the season thus far.  I guess this is what AAA teams do, needing a 6th starter for most of the season as guys move up and out.
• Colin Bates had an interesting 7/1 start: 5⅓ IP, 4H, 3R, 3ER, 3BB, 0K.  No strikeouts in 5+ innings, that may be a first for a starter in our system this year.
• Was Erik Davis “pitching to the score” in Harrisburg on 7/2?  Final line: 7IP, 10H, 3ER, 0BB, 4K, HR.  It was 10-0 heading into the bottom of the third.  Perhaps so; certainly with a 10 run lead i’d be in experimentation mode, not necessarily buckle down mode as a starter.
• Oliver Perez returned from the DL for the 2nd half of 7/2’s double header and put in a mediocre start.  4⅔ IP, 7H, 3R, 2ER, 2BB, 4K.  See the notes section for my thoughts on the franchise’s use of Perez right now.
• AJ Cole pitched decently enough, but for only 4 innings, for Hagerstown on 7/2: 4IP, 5H, 3ER, BB, 4K.  Not sure why he was taken out so soon.
• Another quality start for Craig Stammen in Syracuse on 7/3: 6IP, 8H, 3ER, BB, 5K, HR.  He needs to do more to earn a return trip to the MLB.
• Danny Rosenbaum was struggling for Potomac on 7/3 when the game got washed away (along with many trees in the area) on 7/3.
• Yuniesky Maya struggled with his control on 7/4 but still pitched a quality start.  6 2/3, 5hits, 2 runs (both earned), 5Ks and 3 walks.
• Adam Olbrychowski‘s 7/4 start wasn’t terrible, but it was enough to take the loss.  6ip, 7 hits, 4 runs, 4 Ks and 0 walks.
• Taylor Jordan kept Hagerstown in the game on 7/4, but didn’t get the victory.  Line: 5 1/3, 7hits, 2runs, 5ks and 2 walks.  Not bad, but not excellent either.
• It was “reliever night” in Syracuse on 7/5, with Chad Gaudin getting a rehab start (line: 2⅔ IP, 2H, 3R, 0ER, 2BB, 2K), and 4 other relievers then pouring gasoline on the fire of a 11-6 loss.
• Erik Arneson went 6 2/3 for Harrisburg on 7/6, good enough for the win.  Line: 6⅔ IP, 7H, 2R, 2ER, 2BB, 4K.  A bit too many baserunners for a “good” in my book.
• Sammy Solis, whose debut in high-A on 7/5 was covered by Byron Kerr here.  He talked more glowingly about it than his line indidates: 6IP, 7H, 3R, 3ER, BB, 5K.  He clearly has good stuff, a 93mph fastball and 2 secondary pitches that he can command, and should continue to fare well for this team.
• Manny Rodriguez‘s 7/5 appearance in Auburn was just ok: 4IP, 5H, 2R, 2ER, BB, 3K.
• Meanwhile, Rodriguez’s 2nd “starter” teammate Kelvin Lopez piched 3 dominant innings for the win the same day: 3IP, 3H, 0R, 0BB, 4K.

Relievers of Note and other Thoughts

• The use of Matt Chico continues to confound.  He had made two scheduled GCL starts, but then his rotation spot was skipped and he worked out of the bullpen on 7/1.  Is he a starter or is he a reliever?  The big-league team could sure use a Loogy (going so far as to sign waived Philadelphia reject JC Romero recently), and Chico has MLB experience.  I’m surprised they’re not pushing him into this kind of role.  That being said, he did a late-inning stint on 7/4 and got hit badly in the GCL, an embarassing outing that may mean he’s closer to the door than the majors.
• Speaking of potential LOOGYs in the majors, why do we continues to use Oliver Perez as a starter in AA?  Why don’t we try him out as a situational reliever instead of letting him waste as a starter in a level he is clearly too old and too experienced for?
• Speaking of Perez … if he returns to AA’s rotation (as it seems), who makes way?   Perhaps Erik Arneson …. but he was an all-star for this team.  On form it may end up being Tanner Roark though.  We’ll see next cycle.
• Hassan Pena at Harrisburg got some nice recognition, being named to the Eastern League all star team to replace Peacock (who will pitch in the Futures game).
• In what I consider to be a surprise move, the Nats have decided to have Bryce Harper skip Potomac & High-A ball and go straight to AA.  Potomac uber-fan Sue Dinem posted his (hers?) reaction here and I can’t necessarily refute any of his/her opinions.  If I had to guess I’d say the team is primarily worried about the crummy field in Potomac, perhaps penalizing the local affiliate owner for not taking care of the situation sooner.  From purely a player-development perspective perhaps this is a good move for the team overall; Harper held his own in the AFL against AA talent and this may put him in line for a 2012 spot sooner than we all thought.  Or even a 9/1 callup (though I’d be slightly against this move as it would complicate his arbitration clock).
• Tom Milone‘s continued excellence has earned him the International League’s pitcher of the week award.
• As expected, Ross Detwiler‘s performance as of late has earned him a spot start in the majors.  No matter how well he does, it should be a one-and-done start, but it would be nice to see him throw 6 or 7 clean innings.
• Sammy Solis was promoted to make his normal-rest start in Potomac instead of Hagerstown on 7/5.   Perhaps not necessarily on form but definitely on age and experience, Solis belongs in Potomac as a college draftee and should get a better challenge there.  Solis’s promotion seems to have come at the expense of Evan Bronson in Potomac’s rotation.
• Pedro Encarnation‘s rough start to the season has seemingly earned him a demotion out of Auburn’s rotation, with his normal spot being taken by Meza this turn.  Meza didn’t exactly light it up, so Encarnation could be back.  Update: he got demoted back to the GCL on 7/3.
• Why was Brad Meyers skipped in Syracuse’s rotation?  Gaudin did a rehab start on Meyer’s turn, and Martin is scheduled for 7/7.  Ahh; answer: he was placed on the 7-day DL retroactive to 7/1.
• Christopher Manno had another great outing this week, a 2ip, 5k performance on 7/5.  Maybe the team should be looking at him as a potential Loogy and should start promoting him up the line.
• Mayo and Meza earned quick promotions up to Auburn on 7/3.

Trends

AAA trends (in rotation order)
Detwiler    good,good,soso,soso,bad,soso,bad,bad,bad,soso,soso,good,soso,soso,soso,incomplete (2ip)
Milone    good,soso,soso,bad,great,good,great,soso,good,soso,good,soso,great,good
Stammen    good,soso,great,bad,soso,good,soso,soso,soso,soso->promoted,bad,great,soso,soso
Maya        bad,soso,soso,good,great,good,soso,soso,soso->promoted,bad,good (cut short),soso,soso
Meyers    soso,good,soso,good,bad,soso,bad,good,good,soso

AA Trends:
EDavis    good,soso,good,bad,soso,incomplete (knee injury->dl),soso,good,soso,good,soso,good,incomplete (1ip),soso
OPerez    great,soso (1IP cut short),good,soso,soso-> dl,soso
Roark        bad,good,incomplete (2 ip cut short),soso,soso,awful,good,soso,bad,bad
Peacock    soso,good,great,good,very good,bad,great,great,good,soso,good,good,great,good
Arneson    soso,soso,good,good,soso
Martis     bad,bad,soso,soso,good,bad,good->dl,soso,great,soso,great,good

High-A Trends:
Rosenbaum    soso,good,good,soso,good,good,soso,bad,good,bad,great,good,soso,good,soso
Olbrychowski soso,good,good,soso
Solis        soso
Demny        good,bad,good,good,soso,soso,bad,bad,soso,soso,soso,great,bad,great
Selik        soso,bad->dl,soso,soso,great,good,soso,good,soso,bad

Low-A Trends:
Grace        good,bad,bad,bad,good,soso,soso,soso,soso,soso,good,soso,awful,soso,good
Jordan    good,soso,good,good->dl,soso,soso,soso,good,good,bad,soso,soso,good,good,soso
Applebee    bad,soso,bad,good,good
Ray        great,great,good,2ip short outing,good,great,soso,soso,bad,good
Cole        soso,soso,bad,good,good,soso

Short-A Trends
Bates        good,great,soso
Demmin    good,good,good,bad
Estevez    bad,great,good,bad
Meza        bad
MRodriguez    good,bad,soso
KLopez    bad,soso,bad,good
(Encarnation    bad,bad,soso->demoted to bullpen)

GCL Trends
Karns        soso,great,great
Baez        great
(Marcelino    awful)
Mieses    good,good
Meza        great,good
(McKenzie    good)
King        awful,great,awful

(Chico    good,great->back to bullpen?)

Hagerstown's newest Starter. Photo the Washington Nationals

Here are the daily links from NationalsProspects, for reference below:

• Sunday 6/26 game reviews (Detwiler, Martis, Selik, Ray, Bates, Chico).
• Monday 6/27 game reviews (Milone, Roark, Rosenbaum, Wang & Cole, Demmin, GCL off)
• Tuesday 6/28 game reviews (Stammen, Davis, Olbrychowski, Grace, Estevez, Mieses & Meza)
• Wednesday 6/29 game reviews (Maya, Peacock, Bronson, Jordan, Encarnation, King)
• Thursday 6/30 game reviews (Detwiler & Meyers, Arneson, Demny, Solis, MRodriguez & Lopez, Karns)

Good

• Shairon Martis continues to prove what we already should know, that a former MLB starter can dominate in AA, by striking out 10 over 8+ innings on 6/26.  His performance was featured on milb.com.
• Matt Chico pitched 5 solid innings in the GCL on 6/26: 5IP, 2H, 0R, 1BB, 3K.  Why??  If he’s re-habbing in the GCL that’s fine, but this team has TOO many starters in the AA/AAA level right now and i’m not entirely sure where Chico is going to go.  Perhaps he’s getting stretched out to feature as a trade candidate.
• Wirkin Estevez bounced back (as noted by Byron Kerr here) and pitched 5 nearly no-hit innings on 6/26.
• Tom Milone continues his outstanding run in AAA on 6/27: 8IP, 3H, 0ER, 0BB, 6K.  He continues to be the minor leaguer most likely to make the next spot start in the Majors despite his lack of 40-man status.
• Danny Rosenbaum fulfilled his “ace” status in Potomac on 6/28: 6IP, 3H, 1R, 1ER, 3BB, 6K.
• AJ Cole got the “relief start” coming in after the rehabbing Wang on 6/27 and was sparkling: 5IP, 2H, 0R, 1BB, 6K.
• Another nice quality start plus outing from Ryan Demmin for short-A on 6/27: 6IP, 3H, 2R, 2ER, 2BB, 6K.    That’s three starts, three good outings and 3 wins in a row for the Potomac washout.  Perhaps he’s refound his mojo.
• Adam Olbrychowski continues to show pitching capabilities in the starter role that he never really showed in relief, going for 6⅔ IP, 4H, 1R, 1ER, 2BB, 4K on 6/28 for Potomac.
• Wirkin Estevez put in his second strong start in a row for Auburn on 6/28: 5IP, 4H, 1R, 1ER, 1BB, 5K.
• Adalaberto Mieses continues the strong pitching in the GCL, going for 5IP, 3H, 1R, 1ER, 3BB, 2K on 6/28.  A bit wild perhaps but he scattered 6 runners effectively enough.
• Christian Meza got the “second start” in the GCL on 6/28, pitching 4 strong innings for the “save.”  4IP, 3H, 0R, 1BB, 3K.
• Another ho-hum dominant performance in AA for Brad Peacock: 5⅔ IP, 1H, 0R, 3BB, 6K, WP.
• Evan Bronson‘s (apparent) return to the rotation in High-A was pretty solid: 7IP, 7H, 3R, 3ER, 0BB, 4K, HR.
• An ugly defensive outing cost Taylor Jordan during a pretty good 6/29 outing: 5⅔ IP, 4H, 3R, 0ER, 3BB, 8K.
• Brandon King threw 5 perfect innings in the GCL on 6/29 before making way for his bullpen.  5IP, 0H, 0R, 0BB, 4K.  You can’t ask for much more than 5 perfect innings after his inauspicious start.
• Another excellent start for Erik Arneson for Harrisburg on 6/30: 6IP, 4H, 0ER, BB, 5K.
• Excellent start by Paul Demny for Potomac on 6/30: 7IP, 5H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 8K.
• Wow, Nathan Karns looks like he may be healthy and good.  6/30 line: 4IP, 0H, 0R, 0BB, 7K.

Bad

• Robbie Ray seems to be coming back down to earth after a scorching start to his pro season.  On 6/26 he got touched up for 4⅔ IP, 5H, 6R, 5ER, 2BB, 6K, 2HR.  Perhaps he’s getting a big of arm fatigue, going every 5 days for the first time.
• Tanner Roark continues his up and down season, never recovering from a 4-run first and losing on 6/27.  Line: 5IP, 8H, 5ER, 0BB, 5K.
• Manny Rodriguez didn’t get out of the first inning on 6/30: ⅓ 3H, 6R, 5ER, 1BB, 0K, HBP.
• Rodriguez’s relief Kelvin Lopez didn’t fare much better: 3⅔ IP, 5H, 5R, 4ER, 2BB, 4K, 2-2 IR-S.

Mediocre/Inconclusive

• Ross Detwiler put in an oddly short 6/26 start: 5IP, 4H, 2R, ER, 2BB, 4K.   I wouldn’t call it great, but at least it wasn’t bad.
• Cameron Selik put in a similar line to Detwilers on 6/26: 5IP, 4H, 5R, 1ER, 2BB, 1K.  Not bad, but not great.  You can’t fault the pitcher when he gives up four earned runs in 5 innings.  Selik was rather wild on the day, with a HBP and two wild pitches.
• Colin Bates had a near-quality start on 6/26 in Auburn: 5IP, 5H, 2R, 2ER, 2BB, 3K.   That’s three effective starts in a row for Bates in Short-A.
• Chien-Ming Wang made his first rehab start, and his first professional appearance for this team after two contracts and several million dollars, in Hagerstown on 6/27.    Adam Kilgore reported on the important appearance at the NatsJournal blog here, saying that he showed decent speed (86-88, topping at 90), with good movement and his sinker working (6/1 go/ao ratio).  Hmm.  This actually sounds pretty promising.  Final line: 3IP, 4H, 2R, 2ER, 0BB, 3K, HBP.  It is good to finally see him pitching in a Nats uniform.
• An up and down outing for Craig Stammen on 6/28: 5.1IP, 9H, 5ER, BB, 9K.  I like the K/9 rate, but don’t like the whip on the game (around 2.0).  He gets a win for his efforts though, as Syracuse’s hitters are pounding the ball right now.
• Erik Davis‘s 6/28 start in Harrisburg was suspended in the top of the 1st; I’m guessing he works out of the bullpen the next few days so as to stay sharp.
• Another decent start for Matt Grace for Hagerstown on 6/28: 5IP, 5H, 3R, 2ER, 1BB, 5K.  Not quite enough for the QS but good enough.
• Not the best outing for Yuniesky Maya (6IP, 7H, 4ER, BB, 6K, HR, HBP) on 6/29.    It wasn’t that awful, turning 9 baserunners into 4 runs, but continues the theme for 2011 for Maya.
• Pedro Encarnation continues his mediocre start to the season with another unimpressive performance on 6/29: 4IP, 5H, 3R, 3ER, 2BB, 2K.
• Ross Detwiler pitched 2 shutout innings on 6/30, in an abbreviated “start” that probably is a precursor to his coming up and pitching sometime over the weekend to help offset the doubleheader on 7/2.
• Brad Meyers gave up a ton of baserunners through 6 innings of a relief start on 6/30: 6IP, 10H, 3R, 3ER, BB, 3K.
• Sammy Solis gave up a ton of hits but scattred them well enough on 6/30: 6IP, 11H, 3ER, 0BB, 6K.  A rather similar line to Meyers honestly.

Relievers of Note and other Thoughts

• Masn.com’s Byron Kerr continues his excellent coverage of the Nats farm hands with an overview of 2011 10th rounder Manny Rodriguez, pitching in Auburn.
• Byron Kerr posted on 6/29 with a look at Peacock’s mechanics adjustments, which have allowed him to make great advances in his quality as a starter.  The adjustment he’s made has been to do a better job of concealing the baseball prior to its release.  Peacock has hit 97 this year, sits 93-94, and has really good change-up separation (83-85mph on the change).  His secondary pitches have always been the criticism from scouts; he’s been working on his curveball command and its not clear if he has a 4th pitch right now.  I think to be successful at the upper levels he needs a 4th pitch; a cutter, a slider or a 2-seam sinking fastball are the logical candidates.
• Baseball America featured Sammy Solis on 6/29 (possibly insider only).  Per the report, Solis’s injuries slowed his first pro season (as we all know) and that he’s been slowly building up to 100-pitch limits per night.  He has added a cut-fastball to his existing 3-pitch repertoire (4-seamer, changeup and curve).
• Brad Peacock‘s year of accolades continues with his naming (along with Erik Arneson) to the Eastern League All-star team. The Harrisburg team placed 5 guys to the all star roster all told.
• Trevor Holder finally seems to have been removed from the Potomac rotation after a first half of forgettable numbers (Bronson started in his place on 6/29).  We’ll see if it was a one-off occurrence.

Top 3 starters deserving promotion not named Peacock: Milone, Arneson, Karns
Top 3 starters whose jobs are in jeopardy: Roark, Encarnation, Kopez

Gorzelanny seems like he's back in the saddle, again. Photo: Ed Wolfstein

Cycle #16 was perhaps one of the most eventful (and weird) periods in Nationals history, with Jim Riggleman‘s ill-timed resignation, a 3 game series in Chicago that featured a game that the bullpen blew no less than three times and still managed to win, and the naming of a new manager.  How will the Davey Johnson era play out?

Good

• Livan Hernandez struck out a season-high 9 guys en route to his 5th win on the season in the Chicago series finale on 6/26 (box/gamer).  Livan continues a pretty amazing streak of pitching for this club, combined with continued timely and excellent hitting to make the team the hottest in the majors.
• Jordan Zimmermann continues to be one of the hottest (and best) pitchers in the NL, throwing 8 fantastic innings in Anaheim on 6/29 (box/gamer).  8 ip, 4 hits, 1 run (unearned), 4ks and 1bb on 93 pitches.  That’s a great game.  Too bad the Angel’s Dan Haren was better, helping to shut out the Nats and take the 1-0 victory.  Zimmermann’s 2.63 era is now good for 10th in the entire league.  Its hard not to be optimistic but it really does seem he’s growing into an “Ace” style pitcher.
• Tom Gorzelanny pitched another excellent game on 7/1 (box/gamer), going 7 complete with 6 hits, 1 walk, 8 Ks and just one unearned run allowed.  Since a rough first start back (he was probably rushed back off the DL since Maya was pitching so badly), he’s put in two excellent starts.

Bad

• John Lannan, pitching in new manager Davey Johnson’s first game, got absolutely peppered by the Angels in Anaheim on 6/27 (box/gamer).  He gave up 11 hits and 2 walks in 5 2/3’s inning but amazingly just gave up 3 runs.  Three doubleplays behind him helped, as did a severe lack of timely hitting by the Angels (they left no less than 25 men on base as a team, an astounding figure).  Still, Lannan was far too hittable on the night and this is a severe change in form for the lefty.
• Jason Marquis labored through 5 innings (and 100 pitches), his fielders labored behind him (FIVE errors on the night), and the bullpen allowed 7 runs in 4 innings to cement the loss on 6/28 (box/gamer).  Marquis’ line: 5ip, 8 hits, 4 runs (3 earned), 4 walks and 5 strikeouts.  Early in the game Marquis definitely seemed to have good sink and good fastball movement, but the umps seemed to squeeze him on the inside corner and cost him here and there.

Starter Trends (last 5).

Lhernandez      good,bad,great,bad,good
Marquis             good,good,bad,great,bad
Lannan              good,good,good,good,bad
Zimmermann  good,great,good,great,good
Gorzelanny       soso,bad->dl,bad,good,good

Relievers of Note and Other News

• Chien-Ming Wang made his first rehab start, and his first professional appearance for this team after two contracts and several million dollars, in Hagerstown on 6/27.    Adam Kilgore reported on the important appearance at the NatsJournal blog here, saying that he showed decent speed (86-88, topping at 90), with good movement and his sinker working (6/1 go/ao ratio).  Hmm.  This actually sounds pretty promising.

Overall Summary

For the first time I can ever remember, all 5 regular starters for this team possess ERAs under 4.00 and ERA+’s above 100.  The pitching staff is on a pace to allow 120 less runs this year than last, a fantastic improvement over where this staff was last year and an even more unbelievable improvement over the 2009 debacle.  Kudos to Rizzo for putting together such a great pitching turnaround.