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Nats Rule-5 Draft History (drafted and taken from us); updated for 2019, 2020, 2021

Sharp taken in rule-5 draft, as many of us predicted. Photo unk via talknats.com

The Nats for years were heavy participants in the Rule-5 draft, thanks to some pretty awful teams and no real aspirations to compete on the field. From 2010 on-wards they stopped taking players, but have lost some players here and there. This post is all about players taken and lost in Rule 5 drafts.. We have not posted on this in some time; that’s because its been a while since a player of some significance was taken. Well, on 12/12/19 a player that most of us thought should have been protected a few weeks ago ahead of this draft went 3rd overall to Miami in Sterling Sharp, so I thought it was a good time to bring this back out.

Past versions of this post: December 2016, January of 2014. and November 2011.

Borrowing a chunk of the text for the previous years from the previous post, here’s a list of the Rule 5 drafts since 2005, with our players taken/received noted and with some thoughts on how the player turned out for either side. I’ve tried to update all Rule 5 candidates with career dispositions.

Note: this post used to be to pass judgement on our Rule-5 picks, so when you see “Verdict: Failure” that’s what it means. Its been so long since we tried to draft someone that I forgot what it was like. Suffice it to say … there’s not a lot of success with these picks, either for those we took or those who got taken from us.

(A reminder: These minor league rule-5 acquisitions are essentially $12,000 purchases and the drafters now own these contracts; I’m not entirely clear on the rules that drive them, nor how the players are determined to be eligible, nor if there’s any requirements that the players have to stay on a particular roster).

2021 update: thanks to the lockout, the entire Rule-5 draft was cancelled in 2021.

2020 Update: We selected no one, nor did we have anyone selected from us in either the major or minor league phase of the 2020 Rule-5 draft. So no updates to this post for this year.

MLB beat reporter Jessica Camerato posted a nice Rule-5 history lesson on 12/11/20.

2019 rule 5 Draft (ahead of the 2020 season):

Conducted 12/12/19: Nats did not take any players in the major league phase for the 9th straight year. Sterling Sharp, a 2016 22nd round RHP starter, was taken from us by Miami with the 3rd overall pick. This was a frustration for many pundits, who clearly had identified Sharp as someone to protect ahead of the deadline. With rosters expanding to 26, the Marlins (who are barely trying) get a free prospect who probably can sit in their MLB bullpen all year if he can’t make the rotation. I mean, right now I project the Marlins rotation as the worst in the sport; if Sharp can’t fit into the 5th starter/swing man role for the worst rotation in the majors …

Post Publishing update: Sharp was returned to the Nats on 8/27/20 after four un-impressive appearances for the Marlins.

In the Minor league phase:

Nats took SS Manuel Geraldo from San Francisco
Nats had taken from us SS David Masters by the chicago Cubs

Masters is listed as declared a MLFA by milb.com, so i’m not entirely sure how he was still available in Rule-5, but so be it. Perhaps he re-signed under the radar and then got plucked.

So, notable players who we were “worried” about getting picked but who now are safe for another season include the likes of Mario Sanchez, Taylor Gushue, Joan Baez, Andrew Istler, Jakson Reetz, Steven Fuentes, Jhonathan German and Nick Banks.

2018 Rule 5 Draft (ahead of 2019 season)

Full Draft results: The Nats did not take anyone, nor have anyone taken from them in the Major league phase.

In the Minor league phase:

Nats selected CF Chuck Taylor from Seattle.
Nats had taken from them C Alejandro Flores by Houston.

Taylor hit a combined .229 across AA and AAA for the Nats in 2019, then hit MLFA. Flores was assigned eventually to High-A in late May 2019. He played 2 games, went on the DL, then was released three weeks later. He picked up with a Mexican League team soon after, barely played there but remains on their active roster.

2017 Rule 5 Draft (ahead of the 2018 season)

Full Draft Results here. The Nats did not take anyone, nor have anyone taken from them in the Major league phase.

In the Minor league phase:

Nats selected 2B Jacob Wilson from St Louis
Nats selected RHP Kaleb Fleck from Arizona
Nats had taken from them LHP Robert “RC” Orlan by Cleveland

Wilson hit solidly for AAA Syracuse in 2018, then started hot in Fresno AAA in 2019 before being released so he could pursue an opportunity in Korean baseball. He remains there today. Fleck was sent to AA Harrisburg for the 2018 season and didn’t pitch badly, but was released in July. He pitched a little bit of Indy ball for a team near his home in PA, but likely retired after 2018 season at the age of 29. Orlan bounced around five different teams for Cleveland in 2018, then settled into AAA to start 2019, got shelled, and was released in May.

2016 Rule 5 Draft (ahead of the 2017 season)

Full draft results here for the 12/8/16. For the sixth straight year, the Nats did not take anyone in the major league phase. For the third time in a row, we did not have anyone taken either. Lets pause to congratulate the team for its excellence in player analysis.

In the minor league phase:

the Nats did not take anyone
RHP reliever Philp Walby was taken in the “AAA phase” by Toronto.

We acquired Walby on 5/31/16 as a MLFA from the New York Yankees and he pitched quite ably for us in Hagerstown, with more than a K/inning. He was in his age 24 year though, so clearly “old for the level” and i’m guessing Toronto is banking on him being able to compete in the upper levels immediately. Its notable that milb.com never even bothered to get him in the Hagerstown Suns hat for his profile :-).

Walby pitched of 2017 in-between Low-A and High-A for Toronto’s affiliates, elected MLFA after the season, and has not pitched since.

2015 Rule 5 Draft (ahead of the 2016 season)

This occurred on 12/10/15. The Nationals did not take anyone in the major league phase, nor did they have anyone taken.

In the minor league phase:

the Nationals selected 3B Zack Cox from the Miami organization
The Nats did not have anyone taken from them.

Cox was entering his age 27 season, is a former 1st round pick and has bounced around AA and AAA the last four seasons. He seemed like good AAA 3B insurance for the ever-injured Anthony Rendon (hey, has this comment aged well or what?), but Cox never even made it to Syracuse, getting released on 4/2/16 and never picking back up with another franchise.

2014 Rule 5 Draft (ahead of the 2015 season)

For the first time since their arrival in DC, the Washington Nationals neither took a player in Rule-5 nor had one taken.

2013 Rule 5 Draft (ahead of the 2014 season)

The team did not select anyone in the major league phase. We did lose one player in the MLB phase:

C Adrian Nieto was the 2nd overall pick in the major league phase, by the Chicago White Sox. As commenters at the time noted, it seemed like an odd pick for the White Sox, who had a couple of younger developing catchers in their system. Meanwhile Nieto had never played above A-ball but did hit .285/.373/.449 prior to the 2014 season. Those are pretty good numbers for a catcher … even if he’s an old 24 in A-Ball. I didn’t even mention him in my own pre-Rule5 analysis piece at the time, but amazingly he stuck on the White Sox roster for the entire 2014 season, hitting .236/.296/.340. The White Sox sent him to AA for 2015, he elected FA (presumably after being DFA’d) and signed as a MLFA with Miami for 2016. Nieto continues to bounce around the minors to this day, playing sparingly for AA Jacksonville in 2019.

In the minor league phase, the Nats took a couple of players for organizational depth: Theo Bowe, a AA outfielder from Cincinnati and Martires Arias, a low-A right-hander from the New York Mets. Neither player really panned out: Bowe was left in XST the entire year and Arias was released before the season started.

2012 Rule 5 Draft

Again, the team did not select anyone but got poached for four players in the major and minor phase.

LHP Danny Rosenbaum was drafted by Colorado to take part in their unique rotation experiment (where guys work up to a certain pitch count each night). Rosenbaum didn’t make the Rockie’s pitching staff out of spring training (somewhat an indictment of Rosenbaum’s skills; Colorado’s rotation was one of the worst in the majors in 2013) and he was returned to Nats. Rosenbaum toiled in AAA for the Nats for the 2013 full season. He was the AAA opening day starter in 2014 but blew his UCL and had TJ Surgery. In Jan 2015 the team flipped him to Boston for Dan Butler, and he got roughed up in Boston’s system (0-8, 5.81 ERA). He was released on 3/28/16 and may be done playing.
Utility player Jeff Kobernus was drafted by the Boston Red Sox, traded to Tigers and then eventually returned to Nats. Kobernus turned out to be quite the speedster, stealing nearly a base every other game in the minors and earned a call-up to the big team in 2013. He struggled with injury, spending a chunk of 2014 on the 60 day D/L and had just a handful of MLB atbats. The team released him mid spring training 2015, he picked up with the San Francisco organization and played near his home town in San Jose in 2015, struggling in High-A ball. Kobernus never signed after the 2015 season and may be done playing.
In the minor league phase, Nats draft bust Jack McGeary was taken by the Red Sox. He threw 21 ineffective innings in short-A and low-A for Boston in 2013. He’s from Boston, so it was a nice gesture, but it just doesn’t look like he’s ever going to recover from his arm issues. Hey, at least he got his Stanford education and his bonus money. He signed as a MLFA with the Los Angeles Dodgers organization for 2014, struggled again in A-ball, and did not sign for 2015.
The Dodgers poached Hector Nelo from the Nats AA team and stuck him on their own AA team … where he promptly made the all-star game again and had another excellent season. I’ll be honest; I do not know the minor league rule-5 protection rules, but I wonder why an all-star player was exposed, no matter what his age. Nelo struggled in 2014, was released and looks like he’s out of affiliated ball. So perhaps the team was a year early but still right in exposing him to Rule 5.

2011 Rule 5 Draft

The Nats did not take anyone for the first time in years, but had two players themselves taken. Neither player drafted was a surprise; I posted at the time that I thought both these players should have been protected.

Brad Meyers (RH starting pitcher) was drafted by the New York Yankees, but he suffered an injury in spring training and was DL’d all year. He was returned to the Nats and subsequently missed all of 2013 too. I listed him as a “release candidate” in my 2014 rotation projections, not knowing if he was healthy or if he could win a AAA rotation spot that year; he ended up making 6 starts in AA and was released. He’s now out of baseball.
Erik Komatsu was drafted by St. Louis (in retaliation for our taking Broderick the previous year?), made their 2012 opening day roster, played for a while before being waived, got picked up by Minnesota, and by Memorial Day was returned to Washington in a whirlwind set of transactions. He got hurt in 2013 and played just a few games for the Nats AA and AAA teams, then was released on 5/9/14. He signed immediately with the Angels, bounced to Milwaukee, was a MLFA after the season and did not play in organized ball in 2015.

2010 Rule 5 Draft

Elvin Ramirez, RH reliever, drafted from the New York Mets: he was injured in spring training and spent the entirety of the season on the DL. Interestingly, the team returned him to New York in October, long before they needed to, and with New York in 2012 he made his way to the majors for some appearances. The Mets eventually sold him to the Angels, then he bounced around in MLFA to Pittsburgh and Cincinnati, and in 2015 was playing in the Mexican league. Verdict: impatience leading to failure.
Brian Broderick, RH Starting Pitcher, Drafted from St. Louis and stuck into the 2011′s bullpen as the long-man/mop-up guy. He was awful, he was costing the team wins, and was eventually returned to St. Louis before May was out. However, St. Louis waived him towards the end of 2012 and we picked him back up. I projected him to be one of our AAA starters in 2013 but he struggled and ended the season in AA and was cut loose. He pitched in Indy ball in 2014, well enough to get a MLFA contract in 2015, spending the whole year in the Royal’s AAA team. He did not sign or play for 2016 and may be done. Verdict: failure across the board.

The team lost one player in the 2010 draft:

The Phillies drafted Michael Martinez away from the Nats, and he stuck on their roster as a backup middle infielder. His batting lines were awful though, and the Nats clearly had depth at middle infield at the time, so losing this player was not that big of a deal. Martinez has continued to hit sub .200 but has bounced from Philly to Pittsburgh to Cleveland, splitting time between AAA and the major league rosters providing MIF cover.

2009 Rule 5 Draft

Jamie Hoffman; OF, Drafted with the #1 pick in the Rule 5 draft from Los Angeles Dodgers and immediately traded for Brian Bruney in a pre-arranged deal. NY returned him to the Dodgers later that spring. Bruney, meanwhile, immediately went to arbitration and lost with the team in the spring of 2010, was awful out of the gate, and the team outright released him before the end of May. Verdict: failure, all the way around this transaction.

The team lost one player in this draft:

Zech Zinicola was drafted away from us by Toronto, who eventually returned him to the Nats without any Toronto appearances. His selection was probably due to Dana Brown‘s hiring in Toronto, going from Washington’s Scouting Director to being a special assistant to the GM in Toronto. Zinicola remained in our farm system until 2013, when he was released.

2008 Rule 5 Draft

Terrell Young: Drafted with the #1 pick in the Rule 5 draft from Cincinnati. He got hurt, never played for us, and was eventually returned to the Reds. His injury was severe enough that he was out of baseball after being drafted; he has no professional games after 2008. Verdict: failure.
Ricardo Nanita, selected in the minor league phase, played most of 2009, then went to the Mexican league, then got picked up by Toronto in minor league free agency and has been there ever since, playing all of 2013 in Buffalo. Verdict: failure.

The team lost two players in the minor league phase:

RHP Luis Ortega to Royals was picked up off the Nats rookie squad, pitched one more season for Kansas City’s rookie squad and was cut.
RHP Josh Perrault was picked up by the Orioles, who bounced him around their farm system for a couple of years before he retired in 2010.

2007 Rule 5 Draft

Matt Whitney: 1B/3B, Drafted and then eventually returned back to Cleveland, who eventually made the former 1st rounder a ML free agent and we signed him after the 2008 season. We cut him after the 2009 season and he retired after 2010. Verdict: failure.
Garrett Guzman: LF/RF: after Rule-5 selecting him, the team eventually traded a PTBNL for him to Minnesota, then we cut him outright and nobody picked him up. He played two years of Independent ball and was out of baseball after 2010. Guzman is more infamously known as the player who was caught having sex with an underage girl while playing for our AA team in Harrisburg in 2008, likely the reason why nobody picked him up after his DFA. Verdict: embarrassing failure.

The Nats lost one player of note in the minor league phase in this draft:

Brett Campbell was drafted by Milwaukee in the AAA phase of the rule-5 draft. Milwaukee released him in spring training of the subsequent 2008 season and Campbell never played another inning of pro baseball. This seems especially odd to me: he was drafted in 2004 and rose all the way through the Nats system to debut in the majors by Sept of 2006. He pitched in just two games in 2006, and returned to the minors in 2007. Was he hurt? He was only 26 when he apparently hung them up. Oddity.

2006 Rule 5 Draft

Jesus Flores, C, drafted from the New York Mets, stuck with the team all year despite having only played high-A ball in the minors. Despite his eventual injury issues that plagued him for the better part of 3 seasons, Flores remains the best example of a “found gold” prospect that can be had in the Rule 5 draft. After the Nats DFA’d him last off-season, he bounced around both LA and Tampa’s AAA teams in 2013 but did not appear in the majors. Verdict: success.
Levale Speigner RHP (a closer) was drafted from Minnesota and, as with Booker above, eventually was traded for by the Nats so they could keep him and stash him in the minors. After some awful outings for the big team, he passed through waivers mid 2008 and was released from AAA in 2008, bounced around a couple other organizations, and retired after 2010. Verdict: failure.

The Nats lost one player in this draft:

Alejandro Machada was drafted by Minnesota just a month after the Nats had re-signed him to a minor league contract. So Machada didn’t have to stay on their active roster. And indeed he didn’t; he was injured all of 2007 and stayed with Minnesota’s AAA team until 2009, never again broaching the majors.

2005 Rule 5 Draft

The Nats did not draft anyone, but had a player taken who went on a whirlwind tour of MLB organizations before getting returned mid 2006.

Chris Booker was rule-5 drafted by Detroit, who immediately sold him to Philadelphia, who then waived him in May of 2006 with the intent of returning him … except that Kansas City picked him up, hung onto him for a couple months and eventually returned him to Washington. The Nats eventually called him up but he was relatively ineffective and he washed out of the game (seemingly due to injuries) after 2008.

2004 Rule 5 Draft (ahead of the 2005 season)

Tony Blanco: 1B; drafted from Cincinnati. He batted .177 as a 1st baseman backup while eating a roster spot all season, then we cut him from AAA after 2007. He kicked around Colorado’s system for a year and has been playing in Japan ever since. Verdict: failure.
Tyrell Godwin: CF, drafted from Toronto. Prior to the 2005 season, the team traded another minor leaguer to keep his rights, so this really played out less like a Rule-5 pickup in that Godwin didn’t have to stick on the 25-man roster all year. He played a grand total of 3 games for the Nats, kicked around AAA for a while an hung them up in 2007. Verdict: failure.

Summary: we’ve drafted 11 guys in the MLB phase Rule 5 draft since 2005, and I’d classify 10 of the 11 draftees as eventual failures. Not a great track record. Plus its safe to say that most every player drafted FROM us has been a failure for the drafting team. Clearly the Rule 5 draft isn’t a great way to reliably find players. Why do we do so much analysis on it? I dunno, because its fun? Because its December and we’re desperate for Baseball news? Fair enough 🙂

Written by Todd Boss

December 13th, 2019 at 10:20 am

Nats Rule-5 Draft History; updated for 2016

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Jesus Flores remains our most successful Rule 5 Draftee. Photo Toni Sandys/Washington Post

The Nats for years were heavy participants in the Rule-5 draft, thanks to some pretty awful teams and some shrewd scouting. I first did this history post in November 2011, updating in in January of 2014 and here I update it for the last couple of draft results and drafted player disposition updated for the latest season.

Borrowing a chunk of the text for the previous years from the previous post, here’s a list of the Rule 5 drafts since 2005, with our players taken/received noted and with some thoughts on how the player turned out for either side. Even though there wasn’t any 2016 Rule 5 action for the team, I’ve added a bunch of updates for all the recently involved players, updating their career dispositions.

2016 Rule 5 Draft (ahead of the 2017 season)

In the minor league phase, the Nats did not take anyone, but did have one player taken: RHP reliever Philp Walby was taken in the “AAA phase” by Toronto. We acquired Walby on 5/31/16 as a MLFA from the New York Yankees and he pitched quite ably for us in Hagerstown, with more than a K/inning. He was in his age 24 year though, so clearly “old for the level” and i’m guessing Toronto is banking on him being able to compete in the upper levels immediately. Its notable that milb.com never even bothered to get him in the Hagerstown Suns hat for his profile :-).

(These minor league acquisitions are essentially $12,000 purchases and the drafters now own these contracts; I’m not entirely clear on the rules that drive them, nor how the players are determined to be eligible, but suffice it to say that Walby isn’t exactly a high-end prospect on our collective radars.)

2015 Rule 5 Draft (ahead of the 2016 season)

This occurred on 12/10/15. The Nationals did not take anyone in the major league phase, nor did they have anyone taken.

In the minor league phase, the Nationals selected 3B Zack Cox from the Miami organization. He was entering his age 27 season, is a former 1st round pick and has bounced around AA and AAA the last four seasons. He seemed like good AAA 3B insurance for the ever-injured Anthony Rendon, but Cox never even made it to Syracuse, getting released on 4/2/16 and never picking back up with another franchise.

2014 Rule 5 Draft (ahead of the 2015 season)

For the first time since their arrival in DC, the Washington Nationals neither took a player in Rule-5 nor had one taken.

2013 Rule 5 Draft (ahead of the 2014 season)

The team did not select anyone in the major league phase. We did lose one player in the MLB phase:

C Adrian Nieto was the 2nd overall pick in the major league phase, by the Chicago White Sox. As commenters at the time noted, it seemed like an odd pick for the White Sox, who had a couple of younger developing catchers in their system. Meanwhile Nieto had never played above A-ball but did hit .285/.373/.449 prior to the 2014 season. Those are pretty good numbers for a catcher … even if he’s an old 24 in A-Ball. I didn’t even mention him in my own pre-Rule5 analysis piece at the time, but amazingly he stuck on the White Sox roster for the entire 2014 season, hitting .236/.296/.340. The White Sox sent him to AA for 2015, he elected FA (presumably after being DFA’d) and signed as a MLFA with Miami for 2016. After playing sparingly for New Orleans in 2016, he is a MLFA as we speak.

2012 Rule 5 Draft

Again, the team did not select anyone but got poached for four players in the major and minor phase.

LHP Danny Rosenbaum was drafted by Colorado to take part in their unique rotation experiment (where guys work up to a certain pitch count each night). Rosenbaum didn’t make the Rockie’s pitching staff out of spring training (somewhat an indictment of Rosenbaum’s skills; Colorado’s rotation was one of the worst in the majors in 2013) and he was returned to Nats. Rosenbaum toiled in AAA for the Nats for the 2013 full season. He was the AAA opening day starter in 2014 but blew his UCL and had TJ Surgery. In Jan 2015 the team flipped him to Boston for Dan Butler, and he got roughed up in Boston’s system (0-8, 5.81 ERA). He was released on 3/28/16 and may be done playing.
Utility player Jeff Kobernus was drafted by the Boston Red Sox, traded to Tigers and then eventually returned to Nats. Kobernus turned out to be quite the speedster, stealing nearly a base every other game in the minors and earned a call-up to the big team in 2013. He struggled with injury, spending a chunk of 2014 on the 60 day D/L and had just a handful of MLB atbats. The team released him mid spring training 2015, he picked up with the San Francisco organization and played near his home town in San Jose in 2015, struggling in High-A ball. Kobernus never signed after the 2015 season and may be done playing.
In the minor league phase, Nats draft bust Jack McGeary was taken by the Red Sox. He threw 21 ineffective innings in short-A and low-A for Boston in 2013. He’s from Boston, so it was a nice gesture, but it just doesn’t look like he’s ever going to recover from his arm issues. Hey, at least he got his Stanford education and his bonus money. He signed as a MLFA with the Los Angeles Dodgers organization for 2014, struggled again in A-ball, and did not sign for 2015.
The Dodgers poached Hector Nelo from the Nats AA team and stuck him on their own AA team … where he promptly made the all-star game again and had another excellent season. I’ll be honest; I do not know the minor league rule-5 protection rules, but I wonder why an all-star player was exposed, no matter what his age. Nelo struggled in 2014, was released and looks like he’s out of affiliated ball. So perhaps the team was a year early but still right in exposing him to Rule 5.

2011 Rule 5 Draft

Brad Meyers (RH starting pitcher) was drafted by the New York Yankees, but he suffered an injury in spring training and was DL’d all year. He was returned to the Nats and subsequently missed all of 2013 too. I listed him as a “release candidate” in my 2014 rotation projections, not knowing if he was healthy or if he could win a AAA rotation spot that year; he ended up making 6 starts in AA and was released. He’s now out of baseball.
Erik Komatsu was drafted by St. Louis (in retaliation for our taking Broderick the previous year?), made their 2012 opening day roster, played for a while before being waived, got picked up by Minnesota, and by Memorial Day was returned to Washington in a whirlwind set of transactions. He got hurt in 2013 and played just a few games for the Nats AA and AAA teams, then was released on 5/9/14. He signed immediately with the Angels, bounced to Milwaukee, was a MLFA after the season and did not play in organized ball in 2015.

2010 Rule 5 Draft

Elvin Ramirez, RH reliever, drafted from the New York Mets: he was injured in spring training and spent the entirety of the season on the DL. Interestingly, the team returned him to New York in October, long before they needed to, and with New York in 2012 he made his way to the majors for some appearances. The Mets eventually sold him to the Angels, then he bounced around in MLFA to Pittsburgh and Cincinnati, and in 2015 was playing in the Mexican league. Verdict: impatience leading to failure.
Brian Broderick, RH Starting Pitcher, Drafted from St. Louis and stuck into the 2011′s bullpen as the long-man/mop-up guy. He was awful, he was costing the team wins, and was eventually returned to St. Louis before May was out. However, St. Louis waived him towards the end of 2012 and we picked him back up. I projected him to be one of our AAA starters in 2013 but he struggled and ended the season in AA and was cut loose. He pitched in Indy ball in 2014, well enough to get a MLFA contract in 2015, spending the whole year in the Royal’s AAA team. He did not sign or play for 2016 and may be done. Verdict: failure for the Nats, jury still out for the player.

The team lost one player in the 2010 draft:

The Phillies drafted Michael Martinez away from the Nats, and he stuck on their roster as a backup middle infielder. His batting lines were awful though, and the Nats clearly had depth at middle infield at the time, so losing this player was not that big of a deal. Martinez has continued to hit sub .200 but has bounced from Philly to Pittsburgh to Cleveland, splitting time between AAA and the major league rosters providing MIF cover.

2009 Rule 5 Draft

Jamie Hoffman; OF, Drafted with the #1 pick in the Rule 5 draft from Los Angeles Dodgers and immediately traded for Brian Bruney in a pre-arranged deal. NY returned him to the Dodgers later that spring. Bruney, meanwhile, immediately went to arbitration and lost with the team in the spring of 2010, was awful out of the gate, and the team outright released him before the end of May. Verdict: failure, all the way around this transaction.

The team lost one player in this draft:

Zech Zinicola was drafted away from us by Toronto, who eventually returned him to the Nats without any Toronto appearances. His selection was probably due to Dana Brown‘s hiring in Toronto, going from Washington’s Scouting Director to being a special assistant to the GM in Toronto. Zinicola remained in our farm system until 2013, when he was released.

2008 Rule 5 Draft

Terrell Young: Drafted with the #1 pick in the Rule 5 draft from Cincinnati. He got hurt, never played for us, and was eventually returned to the Reds. His injury was severe enough that he was out of baseball after being drafted; he has no professional games after 2008. Verdict: failure.
Ricardo Nanita, selected in the minor league phase, played most of 2009, then went to the Mexican league, then got picked up by Toronto in minor league free agency and has been there ever since, playing all of 2013 in Buffalo. Verdict: failure.

The team lost two players in the minor league phase:

RHP Luis Ortega to Royals was picked up off the Nats rookie squad, pitched one more season for Kansas City’s rookie squad and was cut.
RHP Josh Perrault was picked up by the Orioles, who bounced him around their farm system for a couple of years before he retired in 2010.

2007 Rule 5 Draft

Matt Whitney: 1B/3B, Drafted and then eventually returned back to Cleveland, who eventually made the former 1st rounder a ML free agent and we signed him after the 2008 season. We cut him after the 2009 season and he retired after 2010. Verdict: failure.
Garrett Guzman: LF/RF: after Rule-5 selecting him, the team eventually traded a PTBNL for him to Minnesota, then we cut him outright and nobody picked him up. He played two years of Independent ball and was out of baseball after 2010. Guzman is more infamously known as the player who was caught having sex with an underage girl while playing for our AA team in Harrisburg in 2008, likely the reason why nobody picked him up after his DFA. Verdict: embarrassing failure.

The Nats lost one player of note in the minor league phase in this draft:

Brett Campbell was drafted by Milwaukee in the AAA phase of the rule-5 draft. Milwaukee released him in spring training of the subsequent 2008 season and Campbell never played another inning of pro baseball. This seems especially odd to me: he was drafted in 2004 and rose all the way through the Nats system to debut in the majors by Sept of 2006. He pitched in just two games in 2006, and returned to the minors in 2007. Was he hurt? He was only 26 when he apparently hung them up. Oddity.

2006 Rule 5 Draft

Jesus Flores, C, drafted from the New York Mets, stuck with the team all year despite having only played high-A ball in the minors. Despite his eventual injury issues that plagued him for the better part of 3 seasons, Flores remains the best example of a “found gold” prospect that can be had in the Rule 5 draft. After the Nats DFA’d him last off-season, he bounced around both LA and Tampa’s AAA teams in 2013 but did not appear in the majors. Verdict: success.
Levale Speigner RHP (a closer) was drafted from Minnesota and, as with Booker above, eventually was traded for by the Nats so they could keep him and stash him in the minors. After some awful outings for the big team, he passed through waivers mid 2008 and was released from AAA in 2008, bounced around a couple other organizations, and retired after 2010. Verdict: failure.

The Nats lost one player in this draft:

Alejandro Machada was drafted by Minnesota just a month after the Nats had re-signed him to a minor league contract. So Machada didn’t have to stay on their active roster. And indeed he didn’t; he was injured all of 2007 and stayed with Minnesota’s AAA team until 2009, never again broaching the majors.

2005 Rule 5 Draft

The Nats did not draft anyone, but had a player taken who went on a whirlwind tour of MLB organizations before getting returned mid 2006.

Chris Booker was rule-5 drafted by Detroit, who immediately sold him to Philadelphia, who then waived him in May of 2006 with the intent of returning him … except that Kansas City picked him up, hung onto him for a couple months and eventually returned him to Washington. The Nats eventually called him up but he was relatively ineffective and he washed out of the game (seemingly due to injuries) after 2008.

2004 Rule 5 Draft (ahead of the 2005 season)

Tony Blanco: 1B; drafted from Cincinnati. He batted .177 as a 1st baseman backup while eating a roster spot all season, then we cut him from AAA after 2007. He kicked around Colorado’s system for a year and has been playing in Japan ever since. Verdict: failure.
Tyrell Godwin: CF, drafted from Toronto. Prior to the 2005 season, the team traded another minor leaguer to keep his rights, so this really played out less like a Rule-5 pickup in that Godwin didn’t have to stick on the 25-man roster all year. He played a grand total of 3 games for the Nats, kicked around AAA for a while an hung them up in 2007. Verdict: failure.

Written by Todd Boss

December 9th, 2016 at 8:59 am

Nats 2016 Minor League Players of the year; do they matter?

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Lopez 2016 Nats minor league pitcher of the year; will it matter? Photo via wp.com/Mitchell Layton getty images

The Nats recently announced their 2016 Minor League Players of the Year, and then recognized them along with GCL MVP Juan Soto over the weekend.

Rafael Bautista, Reynaldo Lopez, Jose Marmolejos-Diaz and Juan Soto, who all hail from the Dominican Republic and represent the best evidence of the Nats long awaited “rebirth” in that market, were all recognized. And that’s great.

But how have the Nats Minor League Players of the Year fared in terms of eventual career accomplishment? Is this achievement a good precursor for MLB success? Lets dig deeper.

Here’s a list of the Nats declared prospects of the year (i’ve gone back beyond the Nats time in DC since prospects lag in terms of their arrival), along with some quick commentary on where they’ve gone:

2016: Jose Marmelejos-Diaz, Reynaldo Lopez: Lopez had some impact at the MLB level in his first shot, may factor into the post-season bullpen, but is looking at AAA next year unless an injury or trade occurs. Marmeloejos-Diaz is still too young to pass judgement. Verdict: too early to tell obviously; Is Lopez going to be an effective mid-rotation starter or (as some pundits believe) is he going to end up being more effective in the bullpen?
2015: Jose Marmelejos-Diaz, Austin Voth: Voth had a solid AAA season in 2016, but was (somewhat surprisingly) not called up on 9/1 despite facing Rule-5 protection this coming off-season. Has he peaked? Was he left off of the 40-man for strategic (i.e. trade bait) purposes? He’s clearly behind three other AAA guys on the depth chart right now with a full MLB roster; what does his future hold? Verdict: too early but concerns about Voth’s role going forward.
2014: Steven Souza, Lucas Giolito: Souza famously netted the team both Trea Turner and Joe Ross in trade, but has been an injury prone 1-win/year player for Tampa Bay ever since (total bWAR for Tampa: 1.9 in two seasons). Giolito’s jury is still out; despite his lofty prospect status he struggled on the big stage in 2016 amid reports of mechanical tweaks and struggles. Verdict: early on Giolito, Souza might be who he is.
2013: Billy Burns, Taylor Jordan: Burns netted the team Jerry Blevins in trade and then had one decent season with Oakland (a 2.8 bWAR season in 2015 that may have had the Nats with trader’s remorse. However, he struggled badly in 2016, was traded, was sent to the minors, and may not be much more than a defensive outfield bench player. Jordan had 9 promising starts in 2013, then struggled in spot starts in 2014, blew out his elbow, came back, struggled again in 2015 spot starts, blew out his elbow again this year and was summarily released. He may struggle to find a team willing to give a 4-A pitcher on his third elbow a shot going forward. Verdict: one may be done, one may be a 4th outfielder at best.
2012: Nathan Karns, Matt Skole: Karns was a lower-round draft pick with an injury history the Nats took a chance on and he shot through the system, taking just a season and a half to rise from low-A. The team capitalized on his promise and flipped him for three role players (Jose Lobaton, Felipe Rivero and Drew Vettleson). Since, Karns got flipped to Seattle, struggled early and has missed most of 2016 with a back strain. Skole is a polarizing figure amongst readers here; to me he is a 27yr old AAA power-only hitter who has had three consecutive NRI to spring training (so its not as if the MLB squad doesn’t know who he is). He’s at the end of his string with the Nats and likely moves elsewhere as a MLFA for next year. I wish he turned out better; after his fantastic 2012 season an unfortunate injury cost him all of 2013 and he really seems like he’s been playing catchup since. Verdict: Karns may turn out to be more than he’s shown, but Skole is a 6-year MLFA.
2011: Steve Lombardozzi, Brad Peacock: Lombardozzi made the majors as a 19th round pick (quite the rarity; it usually only happens 2-3 times per draft class), got traded in the Doug Fister deal, got traded again, then released, then picked up by Baltimore, then released again and found himself playing indy ball after getting cut by the Chicago White Sox this past spring. The Nats picked him up for their AAA team but he possesses a negative bWAR career value as a backup utility player. Peacock (not unlike Karns) had a brief debut with the Nats before getting used in trade to acquire others (in his case, going to Oakland as part of the Gio Gonzalez deal). Oakland flipped him to Houston, where he struggled as a starter in 2014 and has been basically a 4-A taxi squad member between their AAA team and their bullpen. Verdict: both guys ended up better AAA players than MLB players.
2010: Tyler Moore, Tommy Milone: Moore matriculated to the majors and had a fantastic 2012 off the bench (123 OPS+) … and then never matched it. The Nats traded him for Nate Freiman in a “moving the deck chairs” trade with Atlanta, and Moore spent most of 2016 off a 40-man and on the D/L. Milone, like Karns and Peacock after him, had a brief and exciting debut with the MLB club before being used as trade fodder for others (he was also in the Gonzalez trade). He excelled in Oakland’s big park and was then flipped for Sam Fuld to the Twins. He’s been less successful with Minnesota, getting dumped out of the rotation in 2016 and posting a 5+ ERA this year for baseball’s worst team. He may be a non-tender candidate and could be on the move again this winter. Verdict: At best a 4-A slugger and a 6th starter.
2009: Derek Norris, Brad Meyers: Is it interesting that three Nats Minor league players of the year were all included in the same trade? Norris was a centerpiece of the Gonzalez deal while still relatively a young minor leaguer; he peaked as an All Star in 2014 for Oakland before getting moved to San Diego in the Jesse Hahn deal. He’s struggled in San Diego, hitting just .186 this year. Meyers’ career is an injury plagued shame; after a fantastic 2009 he started 2010 just as well before getting hurt. He returned and had a solid 2011 in AA and AAA but was taken in Rule5 by the Yankees. He missed basically all of 2012 with injury and was returned as damaged goods, an injury that cost him all of 2013. By the time he made it back in 2014, he just had nothing left; after 6 starts in Harrisburg the team released him. Verdict: At least a backup catcher in the majors and an asterick due to injury.
2008: Leonard Davis, Jordan Zimmermann: Davis was named the hitter of the year on the back of a solid year at Potomac … when he was 24 and a year and a half older than the league. He kept climbing the ranks, hit .250 in Syracuse in 2011 but never got a shot in the majors. He bounced around indy ball for a copule of years but retired in 2013. Zimmermann is what we all know him to be: a 9-figure starter and easily the most successful player on this list .. which, not to bury the lede this early, is kind of the point of this article. Verdict: a AA washout and a #2 starter in the majors.
2007: Justin Maxwell, John Lannan: Maxwell toiled for years as a 4th OF for the Nats in their dark times before getting flipped for a middle reliever in Adam Olbrychowski. That started his itinerant career, playing for Houston, Kansas City, San Francisco and most recently Boston’s AAA team. He has now decamped for Korea. For his career he has a bWAR figure of 2.9, 2.4 of which came in his best season in Houston. Lannan famously went from Nats opening day starter and Ace during the “down years” to AAA insurance policy in 2012. After getting mercifully non-tendered in 2012, he played for two different NL East rivals in 2013-2014, and has pitched full AAA seasons in the PCL the last two years. 7.1 career bWAR, most of which was earned during his first two full seasons starting for the awful 2008 and 2009 Nats. Verdict: two MLB players, both of which had limited impact in their careers.
2006: Kory Casto, Zech Zinicola: Casto was a long-time Nats farmhand favorite, progressing slowly one level a year and always producing. He finally made the majors in 2007 but struggled in parts of two seasons and was outrighted off the 40-man after 2009. He elected FA, bounced around two organizations in 2010 before retiring in July of that year. Zincola won the Nats minor league pitcher of the year in a year when he threw just 32 innings as a closer, an indication of how bad our farm system was in the early years. He played for years in the Nats system, never making the majors, but interestingly played a full season this year with the independent Sugar Land Skeeters. Verdict: essentially two career minor leaguers.
2005: Kory Casto, Mike O’Conner: O’Conner became just the second pitcher in the history of George Washington baseball to make the majors (the first being a guy from the 1920s who had exactly one career IP). He gave the team 20 starts in 2006 and then had a grand total of 15 MLB innings thereafter, toiling for years in AAA. Verdict: as with Casto, essentially a career minor leaguer.
2004: Ryan Church: a late bloomer who won the Nats minor league player of the year the year he was acquired by destroying Edmonton before getting called up. By 2007 he was a solid contributor for the Nats and looked like a viable RF option for a few years. He got flipped to the Mets in Jim Bowden‘s ill-fated trade for the “toolsy” Lastings Milledge not uncoincidentally just before his first arbitration pay day, played there halfway decently for a year and a half before getting moved to Atlanta. He signed as a FA in Pittsburgh and struggled badly, and 2010 was his last year in the big leagues. Total career bWAR: 9.1, most of it in the three solid years he gave the Nats. Verdict: a MLB regular for a handful of seasons.
2003: Terrmel Sledge: Sledge won the Expos minor league award after an excellent year in AAA Edmonton. He was solid in 2004 for the big league club but then barely played in 2005 thanks to injury. That off-season he was flipped in the Alfonso Soriano deal, traded to San Diego a few weeks later, played two non-descript seasons there and then played 5 years in Japan, retiring after the 2012 season at the age of 35. Verdict: essentially a 4-A player.

Summary: 13 years of the franchise naming minor league players of the year (24 total guys) has produced:

One legitimate MLB star (Zimmermann)
6 slightly better than replacement Major leaguers: Souza, Milone, Karns, Norris, Lannan, Church
9 basically 4-A players: Burns, Jordan, Lombardozzi, Peacock, Moore, Maxwell, Casto, O’Conner, Sledge
4 guys who never made the majors: Skole (as of yet), Meyers, Davis, Zinicola
4 guys who its too early to tell: Marmelejos-Diaz, Lopez, Voth, Giolito

Not a great track record. Lots of this is squarely on the shoulders of the early state of the farm system; fair enough. Its also wise to note that none of the main home-grown stars that the team as developed over the years appears on this list; No Zimmerman, Harper, Strasburg, Rendon, Storen, Cole, Solis, Ray, Espinosa, etc. That’s because these guys either raced through the minors or just never shined brightly enough at a particular level to earn the award.

Also interesting; look how many of these guys got flipped soon after their being named our POTY: Norris, Milone, Peacock, Karns, Burns, Souza. Its almost as if the team is trading high on more marginal prospects thanks to their POTY status. Look at the return in each of these deals; it seems like the Nats “won” the trade nearly every time.

Another interesting side note; while doing this I noticed that no less than four guys from the 2007 draft are on this list: Zimmermann (2nd), Souza (3rd), Norris (4th) and Meyers (5th). That draft also included future big leagers in Detwiler (1st), Smoker (1st-supp) and Smolinksi (2nd). and McCoy (10th). That’s a heck of a draft; all due credit.

Written by Todd Boss

October 3rd, 2016 at 11:22 am

Nats Rule-5 Draft History; updated for 2015

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Jesus Flores remains our most successful (only successful) Rule 5 Draftee. Photo Toni Sandys/Washington Post

Borrowing a chunk of the text for the previous years from the previous post, here’s a list of the Rule 5 drafts since 2005, with our players taken/received noted and with some thoughts on how the player turned out for either side. Even though there wasn’t much 2015 Rule 5 action for the team, I’ve added a bunch of updates for all the recently involved players, updating their career dispositions.

2015 Rule 5 Draft (ahead of the 2016 season)

What just occurred on 12/10/15. The Nationals did not take anyone in the major league phase, nor did they have anyone taken.

In the minor league phase, the Nationals selected 3B Zack Cox from the Miami organization. He’s entering his age 27 season, is a former 1st round pick and has bounced around AA and AAA the last four seasons. I’m calling him “Anthony Rendon” insurance for 2016.

These minor league acquisitions are essentially $12,000 purchases and the Nats now own these contract; I’m not entirely clear on the rules that drive them, nor how the players are determined to be eligible.

2014 Rule 5 Draft (ahead of the 2015 season)

For the first time since their arrival in DC, the Washington Nationals neither took a player in Rule-5 nor had one taken.

2013 Rule 5 Draft (ahead of the 2014 season)

The team did not select anyone in the major league phase. We did lose one player in the MLB phase:

C Adrian Nieto was the 2nd overall pick in the major league phase, by the Chicago White Sox. As commenters at the time noted, it seemed like an odd pick for the White Sox, who had a couple of younger developing catchers in their system. Meanwhile Nieto had never played above A-ball but did hit .285/.373/.449 prior to the 2014 season. Those are pretty good numbers for a catcher … even if he’s an old 24 in A-Ball. I didn’t even mention him in my own pre-Rule5 analysis piece at the time, but amazingly he stuck on the White Sox roster for the entire 2014 season, hitting .236/.296/.340. The White Sox sent him to AA for 2015, he elected FA (presumably after being DFA’d) and signed as a MLFA with Miami for 2016. Given the struggles of Jose Lobaton this past year, I’m slightly surprised he didn’t consider coming back to his original franchise. Or, perhaps more to the point, knowing what I know about his dealings with the Nats front office over the years … perhaps I’m not (his agent Joshua Kusnick is a frequent guest on the NatsGM podcast, hosted by Ryan Sullivan).

2012 Rule 5 Draft

Again, the team did not select anyone but got poached for four players in the major and minor phase.

LHP Danny Rosenbaum was drafted by Colorado to take part in their unique rotation experiment (where guys work up to a certain pitch count each night). Rosenbaum didn’t make the Rockie’s pitching staff out of spring training (somewhat an indictment of Rosenbaum’s skills; Colorado’s rotation was one of the worst in the majors in 2013) and he was returned to Nats. Rosenbaum toiled in AAA for the Nats for the 2013 full season. He was the AAA opening day starter in 2014 but blew his UCL and had TJ Surgery. In Jan 2015 the team flipped him to Boston for Dan Butler, and he got roughed up in Boston’s system (0-8, 5.81 ERA). As far as I can tell he’s still in the Boston organization, perhaps for one more year to see if he pans out.
Utility player Jeff Kobernus was drafted by the Boston Red Sox, traded to Tigers and then eventually returned to Nats. Kobernus turned out to be quite the speedster, stealing nearly a base every other game in the minors and earned a call-up to the big team in 2013. He struggled with injury, spending a chunk of 2014 on the 60 day D/L and had just a handful of MLB atbats. The team released him mid spring training 2015, he picked up with the San Francisco organization and played near his home town in San Jose in 2015, struggling in High-A ball.
In the minor league phase, Nats draft bust Jack McGeary was taken by the Red Sox. He threw 21 ineffective innings in short-A and low-A for Boston in 2013. He’s from Boston, so it was a nice gesture, but it just doesn’t look like he’s ever going to recover from his arm issues. Hey, at least he got his Stanford education and his bonus money. He signed as a MLFA with the Los Angeles Dodgers organization for 2014, struggled again in A-ball, and did not sign for 2015.
The Dodgers poached Hector Nelo from the Nats AA team and stuck him on their own AA team … where he promptly made the all-star game again and had another excellent season. I’ll be honest; I do not know the minor league rule-5 protection rules, but I wonder why an all-star player was exposed, no matter what his age. Nelo struggled in 2014, was released and looks like he’s out of affiliated ball. So perhaps the team was a year early but still right in exposing him to Rule 5.

2011 Rule 5 Draft

Brad Meyers (RH starting pitcher) was drafted by the New York Yankees, but he suffered an injury in spring training and was DL’d all year. He was returned to the Nats and subsequently missed all of 2013 too. I listed him as a “release candidate” in my 2014 rotation projections, not knowing if he was healthy or if he could win a AAA rotation spot that year; he ended up making 6 starts in AA and was released. He’s now out of baseball.
Erik Komatsu was drafted by St. Louis (in retaliation for our taking Broderick the previous year?), made their 2012 opening day roster, played for a while before being waived, got picked up by Minnesota, and by Memorial Day was returned to Washington in a whirlwind set of transactions. He got hurt in 2013 and played just a few games for the Nats AA and AAA teams, then was released on 5/9/14. He signed immediately with the Angels, bounced to Milwaukee, was a MLFA after the season and did not play in organized ball in 2015.

2010 Rule 5 Draft

Elvin Ramirez, RH reliever, drafted from the New York Mets: he was injured in spring training and spent the entirety of the season on the DL. Interestingly, the team returned him to New York in October, long before they needed to, and with New York in 2012 he made his way to the majors for some appearances. The Mets eventually sold him to the Angels, then he bounced around in MLFA to Pittsburgh and Cincinnati, and in 2015 was playing in the Mexican league. Verdict: impatience leading to failure.
Brian Broderick, RH Starting Pitcher, Drafted from St. Louis and stuck into the 2011′s bullpen as the long-man/mop-up guy. He was awful, he was costing the team wins, and was eventually returned to St. Louis before May was out. However, St. Louis waived him towards the end of 2012 and we picked him back up. I projected him to be one of our AAA starters in 2013 but he struggled and ended the season in AA and was cut loose. He pitched in Indy ball in 2014, well enough to get a MLFA contract in 2015, spending the whole year in the Royal’s AAA team. He’s still hanging in there. Verdict: failure for the Nats, jury still out for the player.

The team lost one player in the 2010 draft:

The Phillies drafted Michael Martinez away from the Nats, and he stuck on their roster as a backup middle infielder. His batting lines were awful though, and the Nats clearly had depth at middle infield at the time, so losing this player was not that big of a deal. Martinez has continued to hit sub .200 but has bounced from Philly to Pittsburgh to Cleveland, splitting time between AAA and the major league rosters providing MIF cover.

2009 Rule 5 Draft

Jamie Hoffman; OF, Drafted with the #1 pick in the Rule 5 draft from Los Angeles Dodgers and immediately traded for Brian Bruney in a pre-arranged deal. NY returned him to the Dodgers later that spring. Bruney, meanwhile, immediately went to arbitration and lost with the team in the spring of 2010, was awful out of the gate, and the team outright released him before the end of May. Verdict: failure, all the way around this transaction.

The team lost one player in this draft:

Zech Zinicola was drafted away from us by Toronto, who eventually returned him to the Nats without any Toronto appearances. His selection was probably due to Dana Brown‘s hiring in Toronto, going from Washington’s Scouting Director to being a special assistant to the GM in Toronto. Zinicola remained in our farm system until 2013, when he was released.

2008 Rule 5 Draft

Terrell Young: Drafted with the #1 pick in the Rule 5 draft from Cincinnati. He got hurt, never played for us, and was eventually returned to the Reds. His injury was severe enough that he was out of baseball after being drafted; he has no professional games after 2008. Verdict: failure.
Ricardo Nanita, selected in the minor league phase, played most of 2009, then went to the Mexican league, then got picked up by Toronto in minor league free agency and has been there ever since, playing all of 2013 in Buffalo. Verdict: failure.

The team lost two players in the minor league phase:

RHP Luis Ortega to Royals was picked up off the Nats rookie squad, pitched one more season for Kansas City’s rookie squad and was cut.
RHP Josh Perrault was picked up by the Orioles, who bounced him around their farm system for a couple of years before he retired in 2010.

2007 Rule 5 Draft

Matt Whitney: 1B/3B, Drafted and then eventually returned back to Cleveland, who eventually made the former 1st rounder a ML free agent and we signed him after the 2008 season. We cut him after the 2009 season and he retired after 2010. Verdict: failure.
Garrett Guzman: LF/RF: after Rule-5 selecting him, the team eventually traded a PTBNL for him to Minnesota, then we cut him outright and nobody picked him up. He played two years of Independent ball and was out of baseball after 2010. Guzman is more infamously known as the player who was caught having sex with an underage girl while playing for our AA team in Harrisburg in 2008, likely the reason why nobody picked him up after his DFA. Verdict: embarrassing failure.

The Nats lost one player of note in the minor league phase in this draft:

Brett Campbell was drafted by Milwaukee in the AAA phase of the rule-5 draft. Milwaukee released him in spring training of the subsequent 2008 season and Campbell never played another inning of pro baseball. This seems especially odd to me: he was drafted in 2004 and rose all the way through the Nats system to debut in the majors by Sept of 2006. He pitched in just two games in 2006, and returned to the minors in 2007. Was he hurt? He was only 26 when he apparently hung them up. Oddity.

2006 Rule 5 Draft

Jesus Flores, C, drafted from the New York Mets, stuck with the team all year despite having only played high-A ball in the minors. Despite his eventual injury issues that plagued him for the better part of 3 seasons, Flores remains the best example of a “found gold” prospect that can be had in the Rule 5 draft. After the Nats DFA’d him last off-season, he bounced around both LA and Tampa’s AAA teams in 2013 but did not appear in the majors. Verdict: success.
Levale Speigner RHP (a closer) was drafted from Minnesota and, as with Booker above, eventually was traded for by the Nats so they could keep him and stash him in the minors. After some awful outings for the big team, he passed through waivers mid 2008 and was released from AAA in 2008, bounced around a couple other organizations, and retired after 2010. Verdict: failure.

The Nats lost one player in this draft:

Alejandro Machada was drafted by Minnesota just a month after the Nats had re-signed him to a minor league contract. So Machada didn’t have to stay on their active roster. And indeed he didn’t; he was injured all of 2007 and stayed with Minnesota’s AAA team until 2009, never again broaching the majors.

2005 Rule 5 Draft

The Nats did not draft anyone, but had a player taken who went on a whirlwind tour of MLB organizations before getting returned mid 2006.

Chris Booker was rule-5 drafted by Detroit, who immediately sold him to Philadelphia, who then waived him in May of 2006 with the intent of returning him … except that Kansas City picked him up, hung onto him for a couple months and eventually returned him to Washington. The Nats eventually called him up but he was relatively ineffective and he washed out of the game (seemingly due to injuries) after 2008.

2004 Rule 5 Draft (ahead of the 2005 season)

Tony Blanco: 1B; drafted from Cincinnati. He batted .177 as a 1st baseman backup while eating a roster spot all season, then we cut him from AAA after 2007. He kicked around Colorado’s system for a year and has been playing in Japan ever since. Verdict: failure.
Tyrell Godwin: CF, drafted from Toronto. Prior to the 2005 season, the team traded another minor leaguer to keep his rights, so this really played out less like a Rule-5 pickup in that Godwin didn’t have to stick on the 25-man roster all year. He played a grand total of 3 games for the Nats, kicked around AAA for a while an hung them up in 2007. Verdict: failure.

Written by Todd Boss

December 14th, 2015 at 10:15 am

Rule 5 protection analysis for 2015

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Spencer Kieboom seems a likely Rule-5 addition this year. Photo via curlyw.mlbblogs.com

We’re almost through the BBWAA awards; the next off-season deadline is one we talk about every year. According to my handy Off-Season Baseball Calendar 2015-16, teams have until tomorrow 11/20/15 to add players ahead of the rule-5 draft (which occurs the last day of the winter meetings (this year, 12/10/15 in Nashville).

As always, using the indispensable Nationals resource sites Draft tracker and the Big Board, and then looking up candidate acquisitions made via trade, here’s some thoughts on who might merit protection. The quick Rule-5 rules; any college-aged draftee from 2011 or before who isn’t already on the 40-man roster is Rule-5 eligible this coming off season, and any high-school aged draftee from 2010 or before is newly eligible this year.

Newly Eligible 2012 draft College Players this year worth consideration for protection:

Spencer Kieboom: no brainer to add; a catcher, getting noticed by scouts for his game-calling and defense, currently in the AFL.
Brian Rauh: decent season, but still just a high-A/AA guy who had decent numbers this year.
Robert Orlan: only mentioned because he’s lefty, and the team protected a college guy last year (Matt Grace) almost entirely b/c he was lefty.
Ian Dickson: injured half the year, decent to ok in High-A this year, probably not a candidate to protect.

I’m leaving out the following guys who are eligible but are not really protection candidates: Stephen Perez, Craig Manuel, Robert Benincasa, Derek Self, and Ronald Pena. For main reasons why, see my Statistical Review of the 2015 seasons of the 2012 draftees where I delve into each guy’s season and overall prospects at this point in their careers.

Newly Eligible 2011 High School-age drafted players under consideration for protection:

Deion Williams, who (as I noted in my Statistical Review of the 2015 seasons of the 2011 draftees post) i’m kind of surprised still has a job in the organization. Not a protection candidate.
Chris Bostick: acquired in trade but originally a HS 2011 draftee. Earned a mid-season promotion from High-A->AA, holding his own in the fall league in a probable Rule-5 consideration audition.

Newly Eligible 2011 signed IFAs under consideration for protection:

Pedro Severino was probably the #1 candidate to be added to the roster ahead of this coming Rule-5 draft before the team just went ahead and put him on the 40-man along with the 9/1/15 roster expansion guys.
Raudy Read: another up and coming IFA catcher who made his way to High-A this year, but may be a year too young to really consider protecting.
Jose Marmolejos-Diaz: Took Hagerstown by storm, definitely getting some notice by prospect mavens and likely viewed as a big part of the farm system. Definitely needs protection.
Gilberto Mendez, part time closer for Harrisburg this year but is undersized and doesn’t have the K/9 rates you’d like to see. But, given the dearth of RH relievers, maybe he’s worth protecting.

Not mentioned: a whole slew of 2011 IFA signings throughout the lower levels of the system. Hector Sylvestre, Brian Mejia, Wilman Rodriguez, Anderson Martinez, Randy Encarnacion probably being the most notable/most accomplished in terms of advancement in the system. None of them are Rule-5 protection candidates.

Minor League Free Agents of Note (this list is available at this link on BaseballAmerica). These are either original draftees of the Nats who have now played in our org for 6 years, or guys who were MLFA signings from last year, or guys who are randomly FAs despite being recent draftees.

Jeff Howell: had pretty good success converting to the mound, moving up our system quickly in 2015. Is he worth protecting?
Matt Purke: still can’t seem to solve AA, maybe its time to cut the cord.

Rule-5 Eligible hold-overs of note:

Matt Skole: I hold out hope that he returns to being the hitting force he once was for this team. But he may have peaked in AAA.
Nicholas Lee: had a nice 2015, got sent to the AFL but has only gotten 4IP of work there. Could pull a “Matt Grace” and get added surprisingly given that he’s a closer-quality lefty reliever, but then again this team now has a surplus of such guys.
Bryan Harper: see Lee but add a level: Harper was quite effective in AA and earned a late season promotion to AAA. Worth protecting?

So, who would I protect? As of today (after yesterday’s outright of David Carpenter), the team has 5 open slots on the 40-man roster to work with.

Locks: Kieboom, Bostick, Marmolejos-Diaz
Maybes: Read, Mendez, Lee, Harper

Thoughts? Opinions? Did I forget anyone and/or am I considering the wrong guys? These IFAs are always iffy in terms of eligibility, and some of the MLFAs are confusing too in terms of their status.

Editor’s update; a mere hours after posting this, the team announced its protections and we were close. They protected Kieboom, Bostick … and Nick Lee. I guess I was being a bit optimistic on Marmolejos-Diaz; it is unlikely that a kid his age and having never played above Low-A would stick on a 25-man roster in this day and age.

For a fun trip down memory lane, here’s the same Rule 5 Protection analysis for 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, and 2010.

By year, here’s who I predicted we’d add and who we did add. My “predictions” are kind of iffy, because in some cases I clearly hedged in the post and said something like “if it were me I’d add X,Y and Z but I think they’ll only add X and Y.”

2015: Predicted Kieboom, Bostick, Marmolejos-Diaz. Actual: Kieboom, Bostick, Lee
2014: Predicted Cole, Skole, Goodwin. Hedged on Grace, Martin and Difo. Actual: Cole, Goodwin, Difo, Grace.
2013: Predicted Solis as the only lock (Souza already added). Mentioned in order Barrett, Taylor, Grace, Holland. Actual: Solis, Barrett, Taylor.
2012: Predicted Karns and McCoy, with Hood and Rosenbaum as maybes. Actual: Karns and Davis. I think we were all surprised by Davis’ inclusion, despite his good AA numbers that year.
2011: Predicted Norris as a lock, guessed strongly on Moore, Meyers and Komatsu. Actual: Norris, Moore, Solano, Perez. This was poor analysis on my part; I did not consider the IFAs newly eligible.
2010: Predicted Marrero, Meyers and Mandel. Actual: Marrero, Carr and Kimball.
2009: pre-dates my blog and thus no predictions, but Actual was Jaime, Thompson and Severino.
2008: I might be wrong, but I don’t see any evidence of the team protecting *anyone* prior to the Rule-5 draft. A bit of an indictment of the farm system at the time, I’d say 🙂

Written by Todd Boss

November 19th, 2015 at 10:52 am

Rule 5 Protection Analysis for 2014

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A.J. Cole seems like a lock to be added to the 40-man ahead of the Rule-5 draft. Photo AP

After talking about 2015 payroll projections and then 2015 options analysis, and coming to the conclusion that:

We’re payroll heavy and might see some shedding this off-season, and
Our 40-man is full and we have a ton of guys without options.

Thus, the next logical step is to talk about who might get shed off the 40-man roster in order to protect incoming players ahead of the Rule 5 draft.

This post is a bit earlier than we normally do it; Teams have until 11/19/14 to add players ahead of the rule-5 draft (which occurs the last day of the winter meetings (this year, 12/11/14 in San Diego). All these dates and more are on the off-season Baseball Calendar for 2014-15. But, because we’re talking about it, lets get into the analysis.

As always, using the indispensable Nationals resource sites Draft tracker and the Big Board, and then giving some thought to prospect acquisitions made via trade, here’s some thoughts. The quick Rule-5 rules; any college-aged draftee from 2011 or before who isn’t already on the 40-man roster is Rule-5 eligible this coming off season, and any high-school aged draftee from 2010 or before is newly eligible this year.

Newly Eligible 2011 draft College Players this year worth consideration for protection:

Brian Goodwin: Supp-1st round pick from 2011, paid like an upper 1st rounder, who has been a continual presence on top-100 prospect lists but who hit just .219 in AAA this year, didn’t play after July 1st, and has been clearly passed on the organizational OF depth chart by both Steven Souza and Michael Taylor. Do the Nats protect their $3M bonus investment and find room for Goodwin on the 40-man? I think they do.
Matt Skole, 5th rounder who blasted his way into the Nats minor league hitter of the year in 2012, then suffered a freak injury in the 2nd game of the year in 2013, costing him a whole season. His OPS dropped more than 200 points from 2012 in 2014. He’s almost a 3-true outcomes kind of hitter (good power, a TON of strikeouts but a lot of walks). I’m in agreement with others; because of his lefty power and a distinct lack of lefty power elsewhere, I feel like he’s a potential future contributor. I’ve always liked Skole and hope we don’t lose him in a rule-5 gambit.

There’s a whole slew of guys who were college draftees in 2011 who are still in the system. No one else has even matriculated to AAA yet, and some are still in high-A. The one name that sticks out as someone who “should” be in this conversation is 2011 4th rounder Kylin Turnbull. But no one else on this list merits any discussion for protection at this point.

Newly Eligible 2010 High School-age drafted players under consideration for protection:

Just one: A.J. Cole. Who, it goes without saying, is a lock to get added. In fact, there was only one other HS draftee in that entire 2010 class who signed; Robbie Ray.

Newly Eligible IFAs under consideration for protection (signed in 2010)

Wilmer Difo: just named MVP of the South Atlantic league, occupies a position of weakness in the system. But would someone grab a guy from Low-A and expect to keep them on the 25-man roster all year?

A couple of other 2010 IFAs who sometimes pop up here: Wander Suero, Wirkin Estevez.

Minor League Free Agents of Note (it isn’t live yet, but this list will be at this link on BaseballAmerica eventually). These are original draftees of the Nats who have now played in our org for 6 years. They are basically guys who were drafted in 2008 and who have not yet been released or added to the 40-man. Or they’re MLFA signings from last year.

Rafael Martin: frequently discussed here. Great numbers in AAA this year. Already 30. Not a rule-5 issue necessarily, but a jeopardy to sign elsewhere.
Destin Hood: 2nd round pick in 2008. So much promise, finally posted decent numbers in 2014. Strategically, if you were Hood would you re-sign here though? He’s at least 7th on the OF depth chart by now.
The whole Syracuse rotation: McGregor, Espino, Laffey and Lively. Along with Delcarmen, Stange and Runion. My initial impression is that the team’s going to have more than enough pitching to fill Syracuse’s rotation from those that aren’t going to make the MLB rotation (Cole, Jordan, Hill and Treinen to start, then throw in Rivero and maybe even Solis). So the starters likely are gone; maybe we could use some more MLFA relievers though.

The only other 2008 draftees still hanging around are Jose Lozada and Paul Demny. I’m guessing neither signs with us for 2015.

Rule-5 Eligible hold-overs of note:

Matthew Grace: had an excellent year in AAA, as discussed many times here. Worth protecting?
Neil Holland: a decent year between AA and AAA; he does not seem a jeopardy to get picked so the team can hold onto him for one more year before he hits MLFA.

Did I miss anyone? I hope not.

So, who would I protect? I would protect Cole and Skole for sure. I would highly recommend protecting Goodwin.

Past that, I’d roll the dice. I like Grace and Martin, enough that I’d like to see how they look in the spring, but perhaps not enough to drop someone else. I like Hood; maybe they try to re-sign him. I think Difo is important, but they’ll risk not adding him since he’s only played at low-A.

They’re already looking at dumping 2-3 people to cover the above names; any more and you’re really digging deep, even withstanding the whole “7 guys are out of options” discussion we just had.

Thoughts?

For a fun trip down memory lane, here’s the same Rule 5 Protection analysis for 2013, 2012, 2011, and 2010.

2013: Predicted Solis as the only lock (Souza already added). Mentioned in order Barrett, Taylor, Grace, Holland. Actual: Solis, Barrett, Taylor.
2012: Predicted Karns and McCoy, with Hood and Rosenbaum as maybes. Actual: Karns and Davis. I think we were all surprised by Davis’ inclusion, despite his good AA numbers that year.
2011: Predicted Norris as a lock, guessed strongly on Moore, Meyers and Komatsu. Actual: Norris, Moore, Solano, Perez. This was poor analysis on my part; I did not consider the IFAs newly eligible.
2010: Predicted Marrero, Meyers and Mandel. Actual: Marrero, Carr and Kimball.
2009: pre-dates my blog and thus no predictions, but Actual was Jaime, Thompson and Severino.
2008: I might be wrong, but I don’t see any evidence of the team protecting *anyone* prior to the Rule-5 draft. A bit of an indictment of the farm system at the time, I’d say 🙂

Written by Todd Boss

November 7th, 2014 at 1:08 pm

Nats Minor League Players of the Year; indicator of future success?

36 comments

Souza gets well-deserved recognition from the team. Photo Nats official/Tommy Gilligan

The Nationals on 9/24/14 announced that Lucas Giolito and Steven Souza were named their minor league players of the year for 2014 (announcement made on twitter, h/t to FederalBaseball for the initial posting on the topic).

No surprise for Souza, who sported an OPS above 1.000 in AAA. I was a bit surprised Giolito got the nod over someone like Taylor Hill, Austin Voth‘s 2-level rise, or especially what A.J. Cole did this year, but you cannot argue with his season all in all.

Here’s an look though at the history of the Nats’ minor league players of the year. Does earning the award guarantee future success?

2014: Steven Souza, Lucas Giolito
2013: Billy Burns, Taylor Jordan
2012: Matt Skole, Nathan Karns (also BA’s two POTY for the org)
2011: Steve Lombardozzi, Brad Peacock
2010: Tyler Moore, Tommy Milone
2009: Derek Norris, Brad Meyers
2008: Leonard Davis, Jordan Zimmermann
2007: Justin Maxwell, John Lannan
2006: Kory Casto, Zech Zinicola
2005: Kory Casto, Mike O’Conner

I’d say that it is quite hit or miss. Of the 9 distinct hitters named in the Nats franchise history, I think the only guy you could claim has lived up to his minor league success is Derek Norris. Leonard Davis never even made the majors. Kory Casto barely did: hitting below .200 in parts of two major leagues seasons before getting DFA’d. Most of the rest of these guys at best are no more than role players (with “too early to tell” labels on Skole and Souza of course).

Of the pitchers; clearly Jordan Zimmermann has blossomed into the real thing, and a couple of the other names here have turned into serviceable #4/#5 starters (Lannan, Milone). Perhaps its indicative of just how poor the farm system was upon the team’s arrival in Washington that the first two pitchers of the system were a guy who never pitched in the majors (Zinicola) and another who had a career 5.30 ERA in 35 MLB apperances over several years. Meyers never came back from a shoulder injury; no shame there.

Before 2005, my information is a little spotty on who the Expos named. Here’s what I do know:

2004: Ryan Church
2003: Terrmel Sledge
2002
2001
2000: Brad Wilkerson
1999:
1998: Michael Barrett, Noah Hall
1997:
1996: Vladimir Guerrero
1995: Vladimir Guerrero

Written by Todd Boss

September 25th, 2014 at 12:32 pm

What is the benchmark for a “good” or “bad” draft?

39 comments

Will Fedde make the 2014 draft a “success?” Photo via chicagonow.com

The title of my previous post was pretty simple: “Nats 2014 Draft == failure.” And it resulted in a rather spirited debate in the comments about the 2014 draft, the 2008 draft in hindsight, etc.

In that debate, I postulated my benchmarks for judging whether or not a team’s draft was “good” or not. Here were the six guidelines I stated for judgement, going round by round/section by section in the draft:

a. 1st rounder: future MLB above average regular to all-star
b. 2nd rounder: future MLB regular
c. 3rd-5th: expect at least one future MLB player in at least a backup/bullpen role
d. 6th-10th: hope for at least one player to reach the MLB level.
e. 11th-20th: hope for at least three players who matriculate to AA or higher
f. 20th and above: hope for one-two players to matriculate to AA or higher

Lets go back through all 10 Nats drafts and see whether these guidelines hold up. For each of the 6 requirements, we’ll give a quick “yes/no the condition was met” for each year. Critical to this analysis is the Nats DraftTracker XLS, milb.com and baseball-reference.com for searching for old players. Also useful is the Baseball America executive database, which populated the staff in charge of each draft.

Editors Note post-posting: I’ve added in the total known bonus amounts, per suggestion in the comments. Data taken from the Draft Tracker. Actual figures are likely higher because most bonus figures past the 10th round are unknown (but likely minimal). Also per good suggestion, I’m adding in the draft position for context, since its far easier to get a future all-star if picking in the top 5 versus later on.

2005: Owner: MLB. President: n/a. GM: Jim Bowden. Scouting Director: Dana Brown. Drafting 4th overall. Total Bonus $ spent: $3,990,500

a. Yes: 1st rounder Ryan Zimmerman: MLB above average regular (former all-star)
b. n/a: we had no 2nd rounder; forfeited for Vinny Castilla
c. Yes: 4th rounder Justin Maxwell turned into a 4th outfielder. No 3rd rounder.
d. Yes: 6th rounder Marco Estrada has turned into a decent starter (albeit for someone else after we released him)
e. Yes: 11th rounder John Lannan and 12th rounder Craig Stammen turned into MLBers, far above expectations here. 18th rounder Tim Pahuta had long ML career for us, playing 3 years at AA.
f. Yes: 33rd rounder Ryan Butcher was a 6yr MLFA who left the org but now has MLB experience with Atlanta. No other 20th+ round draftees made it out of A-ball, but Butcher’s MLB matriculation makes up for it.

2005: Success, inarguably. 6 guys matriculating to the majors is a winning draft, especially considering the lack of a 2nd or 3rd round pick, the ownership confusion, and the budget restrictions put on the team.

2006: Owner: MLB. President: n/a. GM: Bowden. Scouting Director: Brown. Drafting 15th overall. Total Bonus $ spent: $5,222,000

a. No: 1st rounder Chris Marrero looks like a 4-a guy at best and 1st rounder Colten Willems never made it above A-ball.
b. No: the team failed to sign 2nd rounder Sean Black and 2nd rounder Stephen Englund never made it out of low-A.
c. No: none of their 3rd-5th picks made the majors. The highest one of these guys got was 5th rounder Corey VanAllen, who did pitch in AAA after passing through the rule-5 draft and finished out his 6-years with the org. VanAllen is in Indy ball in 2014.
d. No: they didn’t even sign their 7th, 9th or 10th round picks. The closest they got to a MLBer here was 6th rounder Zech Zinicola, who played at AAA for quite a while, was rule-5 picked and returned, and now sits in Baltimore’s AA team.
e. Yes: 12th rounder Cole Kimball made it the majors briefly, while 17th rounder Erik Arnesen, 18th rounder Adam Carr and 13th rounder Hassan Pena all toiled in AAA for several years.
f. Yes, sort of. We’re all well aware of the success of 41st rounder Brad Peacock, but he was picked under the “draft-and-follow” system that no longer exists. So while yes it was a 41st round pick, in our current system Peacock wouldn’t have been picked at all and/or wouldn’t have signed but would have been picked the subsequent year based on his great first-college juco season. Of the rest of the 20th+ round picks, one guy had a couple months in AA (26th rounder Brett Logan) to serve as a backup catcher; he hit .102/.170/.122 in 20 games in 2007 and was released.

2006: Failure: 3 guys who have MLB appearances but near zero impact for this team. Peacock enabled the Nats to get Gio Gonzalez but I think we see now that Peacock wasn’t the driving prospect in that deal (now that Derek Norris has made an all-star team).

For as much as went right for the team in the 2005 draft, it went wrong in 2006. Was the lack of signing their 7th, 9th and 10th round picks evident of “fiscal restraint” demanded by the other 29 owners? Clearly to me, the focus on HS drafted personnel in this draft has Bowden’s hands all over it, and almost none of them panned out in the slightest.

2007: Owner: Ted Lerner group. President: Stan Kasten. GM: Bowden. Scouting Director: Brown. Assistant GM/VP, Baseball Operations: Mike Rizzo. Drafting 6th overall. Total Bonus $ spent: $7,619,300

a. No: The team went one-for-three on its first rounders: Michael Burgess got to AA in his fourth pro season but never further, was flipped for Tom Gorzelanny. Josh Smoker‘s failure has been well documented here. But Ross Detwiler, for all the complaining about his usage and role in this space, did make the majors and looked like a good 4th starter (in 2012). I still believe he could start in this league and is better than a long-man. However, the condition is that a first round pick turns into a successful regular, and this crop failed in all regards.
b. Yes. 2nd rounder Jordan Zimmermann is now a 2-time all-star and is probably the best 2nd round pick the organization has ever had. His successes make up for their other 2nd rounder Jake Smolinksi who has made his MLB debut but not until he became a 6-yr MLFA.
c. Yes. 4th rounder Derek Norris made the 2014 all-star team for Oakland. 3rd rounder Stephen Souza has debuted in the majors and looks quite promising (albeit blocked) for our AAA team. 5th rounder Brad Meyers toiled for us in AAA for years before being released this spring after a long injury recovery.
d. Yes: 10th round pick Patrick McCoy made it to AAA for us, signed with Detroit as a MLFA and debuted this year. We should note for the record though that 6th rounder Jack McGeary was paid as if he was a low-1st rounder and failed pretty spectacularly here.
e. Yes: 20th rounder Jeff Mandel was a long-serving org arm at AA and AAA. 11th rounder Bill Rhinehart was looking like a find, appearning on Nats system prospect lists for a while and getting to AAA before getting flipped for Jonny Gomes.
f. Yes: 28th rounder Boomer Whiting made it to Syracuse before getting released in 2011. 48th rounder (!) Kyle Gunderson was flipped for Logan Kensing in 2009 and made it to Miami/Florida’s AAA squad before getting released.

2007: Success: despite the 1st round failures and the McGeary disaster, the breadth of success in the other categories and the production of the remaining guys weighs out.

2008: Owner: Lerner. President: Kasten. GM: Bowden. Scouting Director: Brown. Assistant GM/VP, Baseball Operations: Rizzo. Drafting 9th overall. Total Bonus $ spent: $4,766,500

a. No: as is well documented, the Nats failed to sign 1st round pick Aaron Crow.
b. No/Inc: 2nd round pick Destin Hood has already passed through Rule-5 waivers once, but has found himself in 2014 and is hitting great for Syracuse (2014’s AAA line: .308/.353/.502). It does make one wonder if he’s worth adding to the 40-man once the season is over to keep him; he’s finishing his 7th pro year and is in line for minor league free agency.
c. Yes: 3rd rounder Danny Espinosa has his critics, but he’s at least a MLB backup or possibly more. 5th rounder Adrian Nieto has stuck with the White Sox after getting plucked in the Rule-5 draft last year and hasn’t been half bad.
d. Yes: 10th rounder Tommy Milone has shown his capabilities as a MLB starter. d. 6th-10th: hope for at least one player to reach the MLB level. 6th rounder Paul Demny remains in the system (on the D/L in Harrisburg) but doesn’t seem like he’ll go much higher at this point.
e. Yes: 16th rounder Tyler Moore has put in meaningful at-bats for the Nats for a few years now. And 19th rounder Steve Lombardozzi looks to be a solid utility/backup infielder in this league for years. Lastly I wonder if the team gave up on 15th rounder J.P. Ramirez too soon; he was paid like a 2nd round pick but was released prior to his MLFA period. He may have only made it to high-A, but his last season was somewhat decent.
f. No: as far as I can tell, nobody of note came in rounds 20 or above from this draft.

2008: Failure: How would you judge this draft? We failed to sign the first rounder, which for me is a huge negative. The second rounder may or may not ever debut in the majors, which is also for me a huge negative because of the huge prevalence of 1st and 2nd rounders on MLB rosters. But we got four (5 counting Nieto) other MLBers out of the rest of the draft, including some very deep-dive picks that you rarely find (Moore and Lombardozzi, aside from Peacock, are the two lowest round picks to ever make it to the majors for this team).

2009: Owner: Lerner. President: Kasten. GM: Rizzo. Scouting Director: Brown. Drafting 1st overall. Total Bonus $ spent: $18,806,000

a. Yes: no arguing about either first round pick here: both Stephen Strasburg and Drew Storen have pitched at all-star levels in their careers.
b. No: 2nd Rounder Jeff Kobernus may have made his MLB debut, but he’s nowhere close to being a “regular” in the majors right now and doens’t seem to be trending that way either.
c. No: 3rd round pick Trevor Holder was a gross over-draft (albeit with known reasons; the team committed an *awful* lot of money to the first two guys on this list) and was released in 2013. 4th rounder A.J. Morris looked quite promising for us, was flipped in the Gorzelanny deal, and this year is pitching effectively for Pittsburgh’s AAA squad after being taken in the minor league Rule-5 portion last off-season. And the Nats failed to sign their 5th rounder. So even if Morris pans out as a MLB-capable player, he’s doing it for someone else.
d. Yes: 9th round pick Taylor Jordan was effective for the team last year and may yet figure in the team’s plans despite his mysterious D/L trip right now. And 6th round pick Michael Taylor has rocketed up the prospect lists for this team, is crushing AA pitching right now, is on the team’s 40-man roster and may very well get a look as 2015’s starting center fielder.
e. Yes: 12th rounder Nathan Karns made the org look quite intelligent when he gave spot starts in 2013 after rocketing up the farm system after finally recovering from arm issues. I wonder if the success they had with Karns was the first impetus for Rizzo to take more gambles on high-end-but-injured arms. 13th rounder Patrick Lehman has bounced around as an org arm for years. 11th rounder Juston Bloxom played a couple years in AA before getting released this year. 16th rounder Sean Nicol is splitting time between AA and AAA this year. Finally, I wanted to note something I never knew before studying this: the Nats drafted Marcus Strohman in the 18th round out of HS; this is the same Strohman who went in the first round three years later to Toronto and who is currently holding down a rotation spot for the playoff-pushing Blue Jays. Wow. He’s listed as a SS on the draft-tracker but clearly is a MLB-calibre starter.
f. Yes: 22nd rounder Danny Rosenbaum has been Syracuse’s “ace” for three seasons now. And a slew of guys drafted in the 20s stuck around for years as middle relievers (Mitchell Clegg, Matt Swynenberg, Evan Bronson, Rob Wort, and Shane McCatty). You just can’t ask for more out of your picks in rounds 20-30.

2009: Success: I’ll take a couple of misses in the 2nd and 3rd rounds given the amount of talent they picked up in the middle and late rounds. Great draft. 6 guys who have debuted in the majors with at least another one likely coming soon.

Note: from 2010 onwards, most of the judgement calls are still “in progress.” We’ll use projections and “small sample sizes” to pass judgement. It is what it is. Feel free to criticize in the comments about using projections and national pundit scouting reports to make judgements.

2010: Owner: Lerner. President: Kasten. GM: Rizzo. Scouting Director: Kris Kline. Drafting 1st overall. Total Bonus $ spent: $11,413,200

a. Yes: 1st rounder Bryce Harper has turned into everything the hype suggested. Fun fact; when he went on an rehab assignment in Potomac, he was the 2nd youngest guy on the roster. Remember that when you criticize the guy for not being better than he already is: if he was “playing by the rules,” he’d be jsut finishing his junior year of college.
b. No/Inc: 2nd rounder Sammy Solis has been one injury issue after another. He missed all of 2012 with Tommy John, came back slowly in 2013, but now sits on the AA D/L with another “elbow” issue. He was protected on the 40-man roster last fall, but you have to wonder what’s to come of him. He’s finishing his 5th pro season and he’s got exactly one start above A-Ball.
c. Yes/Inc: 4th rounder A.J. Cole was paid like a late first rounder, and after some struggles he’s really come onto the scene this year. He was already really young for AA and “solved” it, and is now in AAA holding his own. The other guys in this category are less impressive: both Rick Hague and Jason Martinson are repeating AA and not really hitting well enough to push for promotions. This could be a side-effect of the huge amount of money committed to Harper and Cole.
d. Yes: 9th round pick Aaron Barrett went from unknown/unrecognized prospect to the Nats 40-man roster last fall to being lights-out middle reliever in the major league pen this year. As a 9th round college senior pick. 8th rounder Matthew Grace may be next; after toiling as a mediocre starter, he became a reliever in 2013 and has been lights out in AA and AAA this year. And he’s not just a LOOGY: 56 IP in 33 appearances and he’s given up just 6 ER in that time.
e. Yes: 15th round pick David Freitas, after getting traded to Oakland for Kurt Suzuki, got traded again to Baltimore and now is in AAA. 12th round pick Robbie Ray has made his MLB debut for Detroit after going over in the Doug Fister deal. 11th rounder Neil Holland toils in the Harrisburg pen admirably.
f. Yes: 23rd rounder Colin Bates and 26th rounder Christopher Manno both are in the Harrisburg pen. 22nd rounder Cameron Selik made it to AA before hitting his ceiling and being released earlier this year. And 32nd rounder Randolph Oduber is a starting OF in Potomac with decent splits and a shot of moving up.

2010: Success: It may have been a no-brainer to take Harper, and it may have been an example of the “checkbook” winning in their picks of Cole and Ray, but you have to hand it to this team; they bought two high-end prep guys out of their college and they’re both looking like huge successes. And they got a MLB servicable reliever out of a college senior sign who they paid just $35,000 in bonus money. Great work.

2011: Owner: Lerner. President/GM: Rizzo. Scouting Director Kline. Drafting 6th overall. Total Bonus $ spent: $11,325,000

a. Yes: 1st rounder Anthony Rendon was on everyone’s “all star snub” lists this year, while their other 1st rounder Alex Meyer remains one of the top pitching prospects in the game and seems likely to debut later this year. Their supp-1st rounder Brian Goodwin remains on every pundit’s prospect lists even if he seemingly has been passed on the organizational “future starting Center-fielder” depth chart. There’s no chance the team leaves him exposed in the upcoming rule-5 draft, so he’ll have at least three more years to prove he belongs.
b. n/a: forfeited for Adam LaRoche signing.
c. No/Inc: Right now our 3rd through 5th picks are looking iffy; 4th rounder Matthew Purke was paid like an upper first rounder and has been a massive disappointment. Right now he’s recovering from Tommy John and faces an uncertain future. 4th rounder Kylin Turnbull has gotten lit up in high-A this year, his second crack at the league. 5th rounder Matt Skole may be the most promising of the bunch; he crushed 27 homers in his first season of full-season ball only to miss all of 2013 because of a freak injury. Can Skole continue developing and make the majors on a full-time basis? Can Purke at this point?
d. Yes: With the call-up of 6th rounder Taylor Hill earlier this year, this category is met. Which is good because the rest of the 6th-10th rounders from this year are struggling. Two are already released/retired, one is MIA and the lone remaining active player (Brian Dupra) is struggling as a starter/swing-man in AA. But Hill is a huge win; a college senior draftee on minimal bonus rocketing through the minors and forcing his way onto the 25-man roster.
e. Yes/Inc: It is far too early to fully judge this category, but it is looking promising despite the fact that the team failed to sign SIX of its ten picks beween the 11th and 20th round. 11th rounder Caleb Ramsey is already in AA. 16th rounder Deion Williams is on the mound (not a SS as in the Draft Tracker) and is struggling in short-A. 18th rounder Nick Lee is struggling in Potomac this year but has shown a huge arm and seems like he’ll eventually convert to loogy (especially considering his undersized stature); I can see Lee making it far as a matchup lefty reliever with swing-and-miss stuff. The lone failure at this point is 12th rounder Blake Monar, sort of inexplicably released after a decent 2012 season in Short-A.
f. Yes: 30th round pick Bryan Harper earned his way to Harrisburg. 45th round college senior pick Richie Mirowski also made it to AA, where he wasn’t half bad last year, though at the moment he’s back in Potomac. And there’s three other players drafted in the 20th or higher who are active on Potomac’s roster this year and who may get moved up. Decent production out of the bottom of this draft so far.

2011: Projected Success: As discussed before, I believe the selection of Rendon was a “no-brainer” based on a unique set of circumstances that occured on draft day, but credit the management team for having the stones to pick him when other GMs didn’t. I’m sure the Mariners (especially) would like a re-do on that draft (they picked 2nd overall, got soft-tossing local product Danny Hultzen, who was sidelined last year with all sorts of shoulder issues and is no sure bet to ever make it back. They rolled the dice with Purke and so far seem to be losing, but Purke was himself a 1-1 talent at one point (remember, he had his $4M+ deal with Texas pulled thanks to MLB-stewardship at the time) and was probably worth the risk. I’d like to see Skole reach the majors in some capacity before declaring this draft a full success.

Note: from here onwards, everything is a projection and is based on scouting the stat lines. I’m going to sound negative where others sound positive and vice versa. Hey, its better than writing nothing.

2012: Owner: Lerner. President/GM: Rizzo. Scouting Director Kline. Drafting 16th overall. Total Bonus $ spent: $4,503,500

a. Yes/inc: 1st rounder Lucas Giolito (so far) has shown himself to be at full speed post TJ surgery and is mostly in the top 10-15 of every professional scouting pundit’s list for best prospect in the entirety of the minors. He’s got a #1 starter ceiling, a huge frame and three plus pitches. He’s projecting to be everything you’d hope for from an upper first rounder.
b. No/inc: It is hard to squint at 2nd rounder Tony Renda at this point and project him as a future “MLB regular.” Sure he’s hitting .297 in Potomac, and sure his numbers at the plate have not varied much in his three pro seasons. Unfortunately he’s vastly undersized and he has no power in a time where pro middle infielders are expected to provide serious pop. Maybe he can forge a career like Jamey Carroll or like a Jose Altuve, but the odds are against him. I don’t mean to discount the guy because he’s 5’8″ but we all know there’s a significant bias in the industry towards undersized guys. Heck, a pitcher is considered “short” if he isn’t 6’2″ these days.
c. No/inc: So far the guys picked 3rd-5th are also struggling. 3rd rounder Brett Mooneyham‘s struggles are well documented here. 4th rounder Brandon Miller continues to show great power but has missed much of this season with a hamstring injury (he’s on rehab in the GCL as we speak). Lastly 5th rounder Spencer Keiboom suffered a blown UCL that basically cost him the whole 2013 season. He’s got great numbers in low-A this year but is two years too old for the league. Keiboom’s talents more centered on his defense than his bat, so he may still push forward as a future backup catcher. But until he does, this category falls in the “no” side.
d. Maybe/inc: The leading hope for some MLB success out of our 6th-10th round picks right now resides in one of two middle relievers: 7th round pick Robert Benincasa or 9th round pick Derek Self. You never know; one of these guys could turn into the next Aaron Barrett. 8th round SS Stephen Perez made the all-star team this year in Potomac and could feature as a future utility infielder. The team has already released its 6th round pick Hayden Jennings, and their 10th rounder (local Rockville product Craig Manual) was a college senior catcher who is backing up other catchers in the system for the time being). He may continue to hang around but unless he gets a starting gig he’s going to get replaced by someone newer.
e. Yes/inc: 17th rounder Blake Schwartz has already made it to AA, where he struggled and he now sits back in Potomac (where he was great last year, go figure). 11th rounder Brian Rauh got a spot-start in AA last year but has bounced in and out of the Potomac rotation this year. 16th rounder Ronald Pena is working his way off injury but faces a long road to move up thanks to a lack of swing-and-miss stuff. The team has already released four of its 11th-20th round picks; the remaining out-field players (12th rounder Carlos Lopez and 19th rounder Bryan Lippincott) both seem to face long odds as college senior draftees still residing in the low minors to even make it up to AA at this point. To be fair, Lopez missed most of 2013 with an unknown injury, so we’ll give him a slight pass. Lippincott sits in XST right now.
f. No/inc: 33rd rounder Mike McQuillan has hung around and currently serves as a utility guy/bench player for Potomac. A couple of relievers remain on squads: 29th rounder Leonard Hollins is hurt but is on a full-season squad, and 30th rounder Robert Orlan was with Hagerstown to start the season but is back in Auburn. The rest of the 20th round and up guys features carnage; eight college senior draftees already released to go along with 10 unsigned (mostly high schoolers) picks in the later rounds. One unsigned pick looks interesting; all-american freshman UNC player Skye Bolt may be a big-time 2015 draft pick. But otherwise, I’m predicting that we dont’ get even a AA player out of the last 20 rounds of this draft at this point.

2012: Projected Failure: Frankly, this is looking like it may be a one player draft. At this point, I don’t think you can look at *any* other player in this draft and project even a bench/fringe 25-man roster guy besides Giolito. Now ask yourself: if Giolito fulfills expectations and becomes an “ace,” a top 15-20 arm in the majors while the rest of this draft basically becomes high-A and AA filler, does that change your opinion of the draft success/failure?

2013: Owner: Lerner. President/GM: Rizzo. Scouting Director Kline. Drafting 30th overall. Total Bonus $ spent: $2,678,100

a. n/a: No 2013 first rounder thanks to the supurfluous signing of Rafael Soriano. As noted at the time, the Nats missed out on players like Sean Manaea, Ryan Stanek or Ian Clarkin, all of whom were available at the time of their lost 1st rounder. Manaea in particular has flourished, rising up prospect list charts and sporting a healthy K/9 rate in high-A this year. I’d like to call this in and among itself a failure (given my reservations about paying for saves in general), but have to admit that Soriano has been pretty durn good this year.
b. No/inc: 2nd rounder Jake Johansen thus far has not lived up to advance billing in his first year in full-season ball. He’s averaging just 4.5 innings per outing and sports a 5.00 ERA and less than a K/inning. I can understand the difficult adjustment to pro ball, but I don’t get how his vaunted velocity and size combination aren’t resulting in more swing-and-miss. He’s given no indication that he can avoid what scouts have been saying all along (that he’s destined for the bullpen), he’s way too wild and way too hittable.
c. Yes/inc: the Nats collection of 3rd rounder Drew Ward, 4th rounder Nick Pivetta and now especially 5th rounder Austin Voth are making this management team look very smart. All Voth has done since forcing his promotion to High-A is give up 10 hits and ONE earned run in 33 innings over five starts. That’s just ridiculous. And he’s doing it while maintaining a 36/5 K/BB ratio. There’s zero reason for him to still be in Potomac at this point. I don’t know what Voth’s ceiling is, but its getting pushed.
d. No/inc: Thanks to the new CBA’s rules, most 6th-10th rounders are throw-away/college senior picks these days. So it’ll be awfully hard to depend on one of them turning into a 25-man roster guy. The best bet out of this draft will be having either 6th rounder Cody Gunter or 7th rounder James Yezzo eventually matriculating to the majors. The other guys in this category were 15k bonus college seniors, one of whom (9th rounder Jake Joyce has *already* been released). Do we think either Gunter or Yezzo projects as a major leaguer? Not right now: Gunter’s struggling in short-A for the 2nd year in a row and Yezzo is an undersized 1B showing little power.
e. Maybe/inc: Right now the pickings for the guys taken 11th-20th look pretty slim too. Three were senior signs who have already been released and we failed to sign our 16th round pick Willie Allen (though can’t fault the Nats for that: doing research on him for last year’s draft review showed all sorts of inconsistencies with him, including whether he’s even still playing baseball in college). But 11th rounder John Simms is looking like a great find; he’s already in the AA rotation and holding his own (though you could argue it was out of need, not performance). Among those left, 10th rounder Brandon Middleton and 15th rounder Isaac Ballou are starting and playing well in Hagerstown, 12th rounder Andrew Cooper is strugging in low-A, 13th rounder John Costa has yet to debut for the team thanks to TJ surgery, and 17th rounder Geoffrey Perrott was a senior catcher who got a grand total of 13 at-bats in 2013 and has remained in XST so far thisyear, perhaps to serve as a bullpen catcher for others remaining in Viera and perhaps because he was hurt most of last year and may still be recovering. If Simms continues to rise and we get a couple more longer-lasting prospects out of this crew, we’ll convert this to a success.
f. Maybe/Inc: The Nats picked seven college seniors in the 21st round or above and so far they’re all with Hagerstown. Middle infielders Cody Dent (22nd rounder) and Willie Medina (31st rounder) both hit in the .220s last year, are hitting in the .220s (or worse) this year, and seem like they may not last the season. However the pitchers in this bunch are looking better and better. 28th rounder Joey Webb has a 2.53 ERA, 30th rounder Ryan Ullmann has as 3.10 ERA and got a high-A up-and-back call-up, and 34th rounder Jake Walsh dominated Low-A and earned a call-up to Potomac. Only 29th rounder Michael Sylvestri seems to be in trouble among these senior signs; after struggling in Short-A last year, he gave up a ton of runs in 6 mid-relief outings and is currently in re-assignment purgatory. What of the non senior-signs? 24th round pick Matthew Derosier is struggling in short-A and 23rd round outfielder Garrett Gordon seems like he’s a bench player in Auburn. But a revelation may be 25th round prep draft pick Travis Ott. He holds a 2.10 ERA through 6 starts in Auburn despite being quite young for the league. So, the trend seems good that we’ll get value out of the bottom part of this draft.

2013: Projected Failure: Sorry to say; no first rounder, a middle reliever out of your 2nd rounder, perhaps a 5th starter out of the 3-5 rounds, and some org filler from the bottom of the draft? How many players from this draft do you realistically project to make the majors?

2014: Owner: Lerner. President/GM: Rizzo. Scouting Director Kline. Drafting 18th overall. Total Bonus $ spent: $4,149,900

a. Maybe/inc: 1st rounder Erick Fedde may project as a MLB rotation guy, but he’s not projecting as an ace level arm. So if he comes back from surgery 100%, if he keeps moving up the chain, if he makes the majors and if he has an impact we’ll give this a yes. Lots of ifs.
b. n/a: we failed to sign our 2nd rounder Andrew Suarez.
c. Maybe/inc: The hopes here fall on 3rd rounder Jakson Reetz and 4th rounder Robbie Dickey, since our 5th rounder was a senior lefty out of non-baseball powerhouse Duke. How do we dream on Reetz and Dickey? Maybe Reetz turns into our next Derek Norris while Dickey turns into the next Austin Voth. Lets hope so, because both so far have had rather inauspicious starts in the GCL (Reetz batting .220 and Dickey posting an ERA in the 12s). To be fair Reetz is a kid and Dickey isn’t much older, so we have a long way to go before passing true judgement.
d. No/inc: We failed to sign the 8th round pick Austin Byler (and from reading the tea leaves, it didn’t seem like we were ever even close). Our 7th, 8th and 10th round picks were low-bonus college seniors with little hope of advancing. So this category falls squarely on the shoulders of 6th rounder Austin Williams, who looks ok so far in Short-A.
e. Far too Early: most of these guys who did sign are 15 games into short seasons.
f. Far too Early: most of these guys who did sign are 15 games into short seasons.

2014: Not promising: An injured first rounder, no 2nd rounder, really just a handful of non senior-signs elsewhere in the draft. As I opined in the previous post discussion, I just don’t like the looks of this class.

So. 5200 words later, I think I actually like my guidelines. I think though that the new CBA forces teams into making a bunch of “throw-away” picks in the 6th-10th rounds, so my criteria needs to be adjusted downward for that category in the last few years. Otherwise I think it holds.

What say you?

Editor’s Post-posting thoughts. Based on the analysis above, the franchise has 5 successes and 5 failures (or projected failures) in ten drafts. After up and down drafts the first four years, we had three straight successes in 2009-2011, but now I feel like we’ve had three successive failures from 2012 onwards. Here’s a sobering thought about those successes and failures: lets talk about bonus money spent.

In the 5 drafts I call successes, the team spent (chronologically): $3,990,500, $7,619,300, $18,806,000, $11,413,200 and $11,325,000 in bonus money.
In the 5 drafts i’m calling failures/projected failures: $5,222,000, $4,766,500, $4,503,500, $2,678,100, $4,149,900

See a pattern? With the exception of the unbelievable 2005 draft, the Nats have had successes when spending big money and failures when they don’t. Maybe its just that simple.

I think, to be fair, it is also worth nothing the three distinct “eras” of Nats draft philosophy:

Era 1: 2005-2008: MLB hamstrung budgets and Lerner penny pinching era. 2 successes, 2 failures.
Era 2: 2009-2011: Lerner’s realize the Tampa Bay way: spending through the draft is the best way to acquire talent. 3 successes
Era 3: 2012-present: the new CBA spells out draconian draft bonus policies. 3 failures.

Era 1 may be just the way it used to go; sometimes you’d get wins in the draft, other times you’d strike out. Era 2 was the glory years of Nats drafting, though the cynic may point out that picking three consensus 1-1 talents and spending 8 figures in bonus money wasn’t that hard. Era 3 is more troubling: why has this management team not done better in the CBA/limited bonus era?

Written by Todd Boss

July 23rd, 2014 at 10:52 am

Posted in Draft

Tagged with aaron barrett, aaron crow, adam carr, adam laroche, adrian nieto, aj cole, aj morris, alex meyer, andrew cooper, andrew suarez, anthony rendon, austin byler, austin voth, austin williams, bill rhinehart, blake monar, blake schwartz, bommer whiting, brad meyers, brad peacock, brandon middleton, brandon miller, brett logan, brett mooneyham, brian dupra, brian goodwin, brian rauh, bryan harper, bryan lippincott, bryce harper, caleb ramsey, cameron selik, carlos lopez, chris marrero, christopher manno, cody dent, cody gunter, cole kimball, colin bates, colten willems, corey vanallen, craig manual, craig stammen, dana brown, danny espinosa, danny hultzen, danny rosenbaum, david freitas, deion williams, derek norris, derek self, destin hood, doug fister, drew storen, drew ward, erick fedde, erik arneson, evan bronson, garrett gordon, geoffrey perrott, gio gonzalez, hassan pena, hayden jennings, ian clarkin, isaac ballou, jack mcgeary, jake johansen, jake joyce, jake smolinski, jake walsh, jakson reetz, james yezzo, jamey carroll, jason martinson, jeff kobernus, jeff mandel, jim bowden, joey webb, john costa, john lannan, john simms, jonny gomes, jordan zimmermann, jose altuve, josh smoker, jp ramirez, justin maxwell, juston bloxom, kris kline, kurt suzuki, kyle gunderson, kylin turnbull, leonard hollins, logan kensing, lucas giolito, marco estrada, marcus strohman, matt skole, matt swynenberg, matthew derosier, matthew grace, matthew purke, michael burgess, michael sylvestri, michael taylor, mike mcquillan, mike rizzo, mitchell clegg, nathan karns, neil holland, nick lee, nick pivetta, patrick lehman, patrick mccoy, paul demny, rafael soriano, randolph oduber, richie mirowski, rick hague, rob wort, robbie dickey, robbie ray, robert benincasa, robert orlan, ronald pena, ross detwiler, ryan butcher, ryan stanek, ryan ullmann, ryan zimmerman, sammy solis, sean black, sean manaea, sean nicol, shane mccatty, skye bolt, spencer kieboom, stan kasten, stephen englund, stephen perez, stephen strasburg, steve lombardozzi, steven souza, taylor hill, taylor jordan, ted lerner, tim pahuta, tom gorzelanny, tommy milone, tony renda, travis ott, trevor holder, tyler moore, vinny castilla, willie allen, willie medina, zech zinicola

Nats Major & Minor League Pitching Staffs vs Predicted 2014 edition

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At the end of the 2013 season, I put out a slew of season rotational reviews and then predicted where everyone would start in 2014.

We’re a month into the minor league full-seasons and the rotations are already mostly established (with D/L trips and slight movement as noted here). So lets do a little navel gazing and take a look at my predictions versus the actuals before we lose too much identity with the makeup of these four full-season pitching staffs from opening day.

As always, Luke Erickson and nationalsprospects.com, the Nats Big Board and the tireless work by “SpringfieldFan” is much appreciated here.

MLB Dec 2013 Prediction

MLB Rotation: Strasburg, Gonzalez (L), Zimmermann, Fister, Detwiler (L)
MLB Bullpen: Soriano, Storen, Clippard, Stammen, Blevens (L), Ohlendorf, Roark
MLB out of Org: Haren, Duke (L), Abad (L), Krol (L), HRodriguez

MLB April 2014 Actual Opening Day Staff

MLB Rotation: Strasburg, Gonzalez (L), Zimmermann, Roark, Jordan
MLB Bullpen: Soriano, Clippard, Storen, Stammen, Blevens (L), Detwiler, Barrett
MLB D/L: Fister, Ohlendorf, Davis
MLB notables Out of Organization: Haren, Duke (L), Abad (L), Krol (L), HRodriguez

MLB Discussion: A late spring injury to Doug Fister obsoleted the 5th starter competition, giving both Tanner Roark and Taylor Jordan spots (for now; Roark has “won” the 5th spot thanks to a better April now that Fister is ready to come back). The biggest news during spring training was the Ross Detwiler “demotion” to the bullpen, but the Aaron Barrett victory over the likes of Christian Garcia and Ryan Mattheus was also notable. Injuries to Ross Ohlendorf and Erik Davis cleared out bullpen competition, and an early spring training chest injury to Mattheus also made it difficult for him to break camp with the big league club.

Nothing new here: we’ve talked this to death already 🙂 Lets move onto the four full-season minor league squads.

AAA Dec 2013 Prediction

AAA Rotation: Rosenbaum (L), Jordan, Karns, Young, MLFA or two
AAA Bullpen: Barrett, Mattheus, Garcia, Davis, Cedeno (L), Robertson (L), Delcarmen, Alfaro, Stange, Herron (AA?)
AAA Release candidates: Meyers, Lehman
AAA out of Org: Maya, Tatusko, Clay, Mandel, Torra, Broadway, Crotta, Lowe, Kimball, Accardo, Bramhall, Romero (L)

AAA Apr 2014 Actual opening day

AAA Rotation: Rosenbaum (L), Tatusko, Treinen, Hill, Poveda
AAA Bullpen: Mattheus, Garcia, Cedeno (L), Robertson (L), Delcarmen, Madrigal, Roenicke, Stange
AAA D/L: Meyers, Davis (mlb 60 day d/l)
AAA cut/released/FA:Young, Broadway, Maya, Mandel, Clay, Kimball, Crotta, Torra, Lowe, Crotta, Accardo, Bramhall, Romero (L)
AAA Missing: MGonzalez (L), Laffey

AAA Discussion

Technically I got 2/5ths of the AAA rotation right to start the year: Rosenbaum and a MLFA in the form of Omar Poveda (technically an acquisition but still…). Karns was traded to obtain our (now) starting catcher Jose Lobaton. Jordan of course started the year in the majors, but I think he’ll end up back here for a good portion of the season. Young was granted his release and immediately signed in Seattle to fill one of their rotation spots. The team resigned its own MLFA in Ryan Tatusko to return and he seems set to be in the rotation for now, but he’s more of a swing-man/org arm and he likely makes way for a starter when needed. The big surprise is the unexpected promotion of Taylor Hill; he featured in AA but I thought he’d start out there. Brad Meyers stays in the organization but is “missing” for the time being: he may be headed for the D/L but as of this writing has no assignment.

In the month since opening day, we’ve seen both Mike Gonzalez and Aaron Laffey make their way to Syracuse to cover for the subsequently injured Rosenbaum and promoted MLB-bullpen-covering reliever of the day (Cedeno, Treinen, Barrett and Mattheus have all already spent time on the shuttle between Washington and Syracuse).

In the bullpen; our prediction looks decently correct; 6 of the 8 Syracuse opening day members were called. The outliers: MLFA signings Warner Madrigal and Josh Roenicke. Predicted members Erik Davis instead sits on the mlb 60-day D/L, and Alfaro is in the AA squad. Pat Lehman sits on the AA D/L for now.

AAA “Star Power” summary: So, as has become typical AAA isn’t so much about finishing off prospects as it is about holding spare parts. In the rotation we had zero 40-man roster players at this point, and really just Blake Treinen features as a potential up-and-comer (with possible future apologies to Taylor Hill of course …). The bullpen has just three 40-man roster arms (a loogy in Xavier Cedeno, and two injury reclamation projects in Christian Garcia and Ryan Mattheus). Eventually we should see some culling of this roster when the team needs to find spots for Gonzalez and Laffey in particular. Syracuse fans may not be getting the best pitching staff out there to cheer on.

AA Dec 2013 Prediction

AA Rotation: Cole, Hill, Solis (L), Schwartz, Treinen (AAA?)
AA Swingmen: Gilliam (swingman)
AA Bullpen: Benincasa, Mirowski, Holland, Swynenberg, Grace (L), Bates, KPerez, Spann (L)
AA release candidates: Perry, Selik, Demny, RMartin
AA out of Org: Broderick, Ray, McCoy, Frias, Holder, Bray

AA Apr 2014 Actual

AA Rotation: Cole, Schwartz, Rivero (L), Gilliam, Purke (L)
AA spot starts/swingman: Dupra
AA bullpen: Herron, Holland, Grace (L), Mirowski, Alfaro, Bates, Espino
AA dl: Demny, RMartin, Solis (L), Lehman, Perry
AA cut/released/FAs: Broderick, Ray (traded), Bray (L), McCoy (L), Karns (traded), Frias, Holder, Selik, Swynenberg (ret)
AA missing: KPerez

AA Discussion

We got some of the rotation correct; A.J. Cole and Blake Schwartz. We technically got Hill and Treinen correct … just under-valued where the organization would put them. And lastly Sammy Solis would be in this group had he not suffered a late-spring back injury; for the time being he’s in XST but is on the “missing” list here. I had Rob Gilliam as the AA swing man anyway; he would likely make way for Solis once he comes back. The two additional names are Matthew Purke (who surprisingly to me starts the year in AA) and newly acquired Felipe Rivero.

We got most of the bullpen right: 5 of 8 predicted. The outliers: Ryan Perry remains in the organization but sits on the D/L; personally I thought he may get released. Gabriel Alfaro was a MLFA who slots into the bullpen, as was Zach Jackson (who should have been in AAA to begin with and has already been promoted). Benincasa starts in high-A again and Gilliam is pushed into the rotation. Recent acquisition KPerez remain missing, along with several other middle relief arms. Spann started the year two levels lower than I thought he should have in Low-A but currently sits in Potomac.

A couple of long-serving names are now out of the organization; I was surprised to see Cameron Selik in particular being released; I always liked him for some reason. Its tough being a middle relief RHP with so many of them getting drafted year after year.

AA Star Power summary: A few very important names to the organization sit in AA: top pitching prospect A.J. Cole sits here and will be looking to push for a AAA promotion. Sammy Solis had rumblings of being turned into a Loogy in Spring Training; now he just needs to get healthy. Matthew Purke’s destiny remains at a cross-roads thanks to a horrible start to his 2014 AA campaign. And newly acquired/40-man member Felipe Rivero sits here, hoping to show as a decent bounty for the Nathan Karns trade. These three guys all sit on the Nats fast-depleting 40-man roster … and they represent 33% of ALL the 40-man rostered players in the Eastern League.

High-A Dec 2013 Prediction

High-A rotation: Purke (L), Anderson, Mooneyham (L), Encarnacion, Bacus, Turnbull (bullpen?) (L)
High-A swingmen: RPena (swingman), Dickson (swingman)
High-A bullpen: Wort (AA?), Holt (AA?), Fischer, Henke, Mendez, Harper (L), Davis, Thomas (L)
High-A release candidates: Dupra, Rauh (starter?), Meza (L)
High-A out of org: Pineyro, Hawkins

High-A Apr 2014 Actuals

High-A Rotation: Rauh, Rpena, Mooneyham (L), Encarnacion, Lee
High-A spot starts/swingman: Dickson, Simms, Spann (L)
High-A bullpen: Benincasa, Henke, Harper (L), Mendez, Self,
High-A cut/released/FA: Smoker (L), Broderick, Ray (traded), Holt, Wort, Applebee (ret)
High-A missing: Fischer

High-A Discussion

I thought the team would start Purke in high-A again; instead he is struggling in AA. I thought Dixon Anderson was old enough to merit the move to high-A; instead he still sits in Hagerstown repeating the level. And Kyle Turnbull remains on the low-A D/L for now. Otherwise the High-A rotation prediction looks pretty good: we hit on Mooneyham and Encarnacion, we hit on RPena and Dickson and Bacus as swingmen or starters (they all now sit in those roles in some capacity or another thanks to injuries).

The bullpen predictions are all over the place; both Wort and Holt were released, not pushed higher. Fischer remains missing. Benincasa is lower than I thought he’d be. Dupra and Rauh (who I thought were in jeopardy of getting cut) not only have kept their spots but have been pushing for promotion, which is great to see. It does go to show that its kind of difficult to do these predictions the lower you go.

High-A Star Power summary: Honestly there’s not a ton of big-time prospect names on the High-A staff. Mooneyham was a high draft pick but has more or less struggled thus far in his pro career. Encarnacion could be an up-and-comer in an organization that has struggled to develop its DSL graduate talent lately. Otherwise the Potomac staff is filled with mid- to late-round college draft arms, older for the level at this point, and likely playing for their careers this year thanks to the higher-end talent sitting in the Hagerstown rotation right now (read further).

Low-A Dec 2013 Prediction

Low-A rotation: Giolito, Johansen, Voth, Lee (high-A?) (L), Orlan (L)
Low-A swingmen: Suero (swingman), Selsor (swingman),
Low-A bullpen: Self (high-A?), Ullmann, Pivetta, Simms, Hollins, Napoli (L), Bafidis (L), Valdez, Walsh (L), Aries
Low-A release candidates: Joyce, Waterman, Boyden
Low-A out of org: McKenzie, Smith

Low-A Apr 2014 Actuals

Low A Rotation: Giolito, Johansen, Voth, Pivetta, Anderson,
Low A spot starts/swingman: Suero, Anderson,
Low A bullpen: JThomas (L), Walsh (L), Cooper, Hollins, Ullmann, Silvestre (L), Sylvestri, Simms, Spann
Low A dl: Turnbull, CDavis, Estevez,
Low A cut/released/FA: Meza (L), Pineyro (traded), Selsor, Boyden, Waterman, Aries
Low A missing: Orlan, Napoli, Bafidis, Aries, Joyce, Valdez

Discussion

The big three starters in Hagerstown were easily predicted (Giolito, Johansen and Voth). Lee and Anderson switched places in my predictions (both starters, wrong teams) and Orlan is stuck in XST. Pivetta was pushed to the rotation after pitching in relief last year. And then a slew of the Hagerstown arms are participating in a “dual starter” system where by the starters generally have been going 5 and the relievers/spot starters going the other 4 each night. So the team is getting lots of looks at these pitchers on an extended basis.

This system means there’s really not a “bullpen” being developed in Low-A, which is just as well; I’d rather have 8-10 starter candidates to choose from for higher levels than just 4-5 with guys already being pushed to being short-inning relievers in Low-A.

Unfortunately, we see that a slew of guys have already been cut here who appeared on last year’s rosters. And, there’s a ton more players currently sitting in XST waiting to compete with June 2014 draft picks in the short-season squads. Lots of churn here.

Low-A Star Power summary: look no further than the big three starters: they represent 1st, 2nd and 5th round draft picks. Throw in Pivetta (a 4th rounder) and the team has a ton of vested interest in this rotation.

Phew; that’s a lot of players. I can’t wait to see how the staffs work out this year. I don’t expect much in the way of commenting on this post; it was one of those drafts sitting in my admin screen that I thought i’d finish off and publish to get it out of the way 🙂

Written by Todd Boss

May 7th, 2014 at 10:20 am

Minor League Rotation Review – April 2014

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Austin Voth was great last year and has been good this year. Photo via mlbdirt

We’re a month into the minor league season and nearly five turns through each minor league system rotation, so lets take a look to see how our starters are doing.

As with the major league rotation review, I’ve assigned grade letters to roughly judge each start done by our minor league staff, and then i’ve tacked on their overall stats for context. Note that I generally give grades to those that get the starts in games, as well as those who pitch “starter length” outings. You’ll see this much more frequently in the low-A section, where Hagerstown clearly has a “two-starter” system going for many of its guys; one guy will throw 5 innings, then the next guy throws 4. So nearly the entire Hagerstown roster is getting “starter grades” right now. I should also caveat that this analysis is “scouting the box score” analysis; I’ve not had a chance to see any of these guys in person, so I can’t comment on the luck factor involved with anyone (stats versus ability) other than inference analysis between ERA and FIP.

For each team I’ll list the current rotation as best as I can make it, then have a second section where we list the guys with spot-starts or who were in the rotation but are no longer (D/L trips, promoted, demoted, etc). Then we’ll discuss, and then list those guys who are pushing for promotions and those guys who are in jeopardy of getting demoted (or, worse, released).

(Note: I wouldn’t be able to do this data tracking or this post without the great daily work by Luke Erickson at www.nationalsprospects.com.) All stats here are as of 5/2/14, which means I grabbed one May start’s worth of stats for a couple of guys here and there.

AAA/Syracuse:

Pitcher	Start Trend Line	W/L	ERA	Whip	FIP	K/BB Ratio	# of innings	Apps/Starts
Roenicke	A (3ip),F,B	0-2	5.84	1.54	4.10	7/7	12	5/3
Tatusko	A/short,B-,B+,A,B	1-3	2.36	0.83	3.87	15/7	26.2	5/5
Treinen	A-> upandback,C/short,B+	0-0	0.87	1.16	3.58	8/5	10.1	3/3
Hill	A,A+,C,A,C	3-1	2.35	0.91	3.68	29/4	30.2	5/5
Poveda	F,F,A,F	1-3	9.82	2.07	5.13	12/10	18.1	4/4

Laffey	A (took Treinen’s spot),A+,D+	2-0	1.80	0.67	1.92	14/2	15	3/1
Rosenbaum	D,A,C-,D/inc (injury)->D/L	1-1	4.50	1.35	4.18	9/5	20	4/4

Rotation Discussion:

A month in and the Syracuse Chiefs are mired in last place (though to be fair, only 3 games separate the entire division). Opening day starter Danny Rosenbaum is already on the D/L with a possible torn UCL, possibly the latest in an epidemic of Tommy John surgeries throughout baseball (there’s been at least 14 MLB pitchers to go under the knife for this already in 2014 and quite a few more minor leaguers; I have a draft post on this topic coming). His replacement in the rotation is journeyman and Ian Desmond-relative Josh Roenicke, who has struggled in his spot-start duties. However, Roenicke isn’t the least effective starter in AAA; that distinction goes to late spring training acquisition Omar Poveda, who has gotten pretty well battered so far in his four starts. One of these two guys likely is making way for recently demoted Taylor Jordan (well, assuming Jordan even makes it to AAA anytime soon; Doug Fister‘s return is complicated by the Nats needing another starter in-between; Jordan likely is sitting in AAA limbo until tuesday 5/6, then will settle into the AAA rotation).

Meanwhile, we’re seeing excellent springs so far out of Ryan Tatusko, Blake Treinen (albeit in a SSS thanks to his being bounced up and down out of the Nats bullpen), Aaron Laffey and especially Taylor Hill. Hill’s excellent 29/4 K/BB ratio stands out, as well as his sub 1.00 whip so far in 5 starts. I think its fair to say that nobody expected him to have rocketed up the system like he has, given the fact that he was a college senior draftee with limited bonus and limited leverage. I think its also worth noting Tatusko’s production in a swing-man role; quite similarly to his trade-mate Tanner Roark, he continues to produce at an advanced/MLFA age … could he be another “found gold” pitcher in our upper farm system?

We should also note that we have yet to see Brad Meyers, who remains on the D/L and has only thrown about 6 professional innings since 2011.

Bullpen Notables

The Syracuse bullpen has seen plenty of traffic to and from the majors: Aaron Barrett started in the majors and has seen time in Syracuse. Ryan Mattheus and Xavier Cedeno have already both been up and back. Nobody in the pen has much more than about 10 innings pitched, so we won’t make too many rash judgements. So far Christian Garcia looks decent; his 12/2 K/BB ratio in 10 innings is promising but he currently sits on the D/L with an unspecified injury. Meanwhile Daniel Stange has struggled with his control; he has 10 walks in 12 innings. We’ll talk more about bullpen guys deeper into the season.

Most Deserving of a promotion: Hill and perhaps Laffey, both of whom are pitching dominantly right now. But neither are 40-man guys, and that (especially for Laffey) hurts him. Laffey as a starter in AAA has been great, but he might be more useful as a lefty-match up guy. Cedeno has been getting the MLB-bullpen covering call-ups but if Laffey was on the 40-man instead, it probably would have been him instead.

Most in Jeopardy of a demotion/release: Poveda for sure; his cash-only acquisition isn’t looking promising considering that a rotation spot is needed soon for Jordan. Roenicke needs a couple of good outings to get his numbers up; with only 12 innings its hard to pass too harsh a judgement. But, with very little push from the current AA rotation, its hard to see a reason why the organization needs to make a move anytime soon (see the next section for more).

AA/Harrisburg:

Pitcher	Start Trend Line	W/L	ERA	Whip	FIP	K/BB Ratio	# of innings	Apps/Starts
Schwartz	F,F,B+,F,D+	0-4	6.08	1.99	5.1	15/10	23.2	5/5
Rivero	D-,B,B-,F,B+	1-4	5.06	1.69	4.85	13/9	21.1	5/5
Gilliam	F,B-,D,A	0-0	5.09	1.36	6.05	13/9	17.2	5/4
Purke	F,D,F,F	0-5	9.30	2.11	6.55	14/13	20.1	5/5
Cole	B-,A,D,F	2-1	3.63	1.57	2.82	16/4	22.1	5/5

Dupra	B+	1-0	0.00	0.9	4.35	3/3	3.1	1/0
Perry	F -> d/l	0-0	5.63	1.5	3.07	6/3	8	5/0
Jackson	A -> promoted	0-0	0.00	0.52	2.01	7/0	7.2	5/0
Bates	B	0-0	5.68		1.66	2.97	12.2	6/0

Rotation Discussion:

Well, there’s not much joy in Harrisburg in terms of the rotation right now. The team is already 7.5 games out of first and is in dead last in the Eastern League. Four of the five starters in Harrisburg are, well, just awful right now. I should note that the stats above do include one extra start for Matthew Purke; it didn’t help his cause. Newly acquired Felipe Rivero has not acclimated well to Harrisburg, to say the least. Blake Schwartz has not adjusted well to the jump to AA after his excellent season in Potomac last year. The one bright spot seems to be A.J. Cole by ERA/FIP, but he’s still putting an awful lot of people on base (1.57 whip).

Sammy Solis remains on the AA D/L, along with a handful of other long-serving names in this organization (Paul Demny, Rafael Martin and Pat Lehman).

Bullpen Notables

Zach Jackson already earned his promotion via 7 scoreless innings, though to be fair he really should have been in AAA to start (he’s a veteran minor leaguer and has been pitching at the AAA level for nearly a decade). Matt Grace is faring well thus far, as is Richie Mirowski, while Gabriel Alfaro needs to get his control under control (he’s got 9 walks in 11 1/3 innings).

Most Deserving of a promotion: none of these guys are pushing for a promotion, now that Jackson is back in AAA where he belongs.

Most in Jeopardy of a demotion/release: You have to think that Purke may be in jeopardy of being coverted to relief at this point. Alfaro was a MLFA signing out of the Mexican league and may not be long for the organization if he keeps pitching this badly. Gilliam was a throw-in to the Gio Gonzalez trade and is old for the level; he may get pushed out if someone from Potomac makes a case for promotion (which, thankfully for him, has yet to be the case; read on).

High-A/Potomac

Pitcher	Start Trend Line	W/L	ERA	Whip	FIP	K/BB Ratio	# of innings	Apps/Starts
Rauh	B-,F-,C+,C-	1-1	4.43	1.57	4	15/7	20.1	5/4
Rpena	F,D,F/inc,A-,A-	2-0	6.43	1.48	5.71	5/8	21	5/5
Mooneyham	F,C-,A-,D/short,B-	2-1	3.32	1.63	6.71	7/19	19	5/4
Bacus	A+,A+,A (into rotation for Encarnacion)	1-1	2.08	0.69	4.7	15/3	17.1	6/0
Simms	(newly promoted; no Apr starts)

Dickson	B+,F,B+,A	0-2	6.23	1.38	5.37	21/7	21.3	7/0
Encarnacion	C+,B,F,D- ->d/l	1-2	4.00	1.94	5.88	14/12	18	4/4
Lee	F-,F-,D,A -> d/l	0-2	10.05	1.74	2.33	23/8	14.1	5/4
Fister	B (rehab)	0-0	0.00	1.5	2.16	3/0	4	1/1
Dupra	A+,B+,A,A-> promoted	3-0	0.53	0.71	1.31	23/1	17	5/0

Rotation Discussion:

Potomac is sitting in 1st place easily with the rest of its division struggling so far. But Its hard to see how they’re doing it with a rotation putting up numbers like this. The only guy getting starts for Potomac in April with a respectable/impressive FIP was Nick Lee, and he’s on the D/L. But even Lee’s numbers look completely weird: he had a 10 (ten!) ERA in his 14 innings, but an astounding 23 ks in 14 innings. His numbers are completely spiked by two successive awful outings and he currently sits on the D/L with an unspecified but hopefully short-term injury. Dakota Bacus earned his way into the rotation with a series of excellent long-relief outings; he replaces the also-injured opening day rotation starter Pedro Encarnacion, who himself struggled with his control (12 walks in 18 innings) before hitting the D/L. Otherwise there’s not much notable in the Potomac rotation to talk about: Brett Mooneyham‘s advanced numbers show just how bad he’s really pitched; he currently has a 7/19 K/BB ratio in 19 innings. He has more than twice the number of walks as he has strikeouts! That’s not a recipe for success long-term.

Kylin Turnbull remains on the Hagerstown D/L, continuing to be a complete 2011 draft-day disappointment.

Bullpen Notables

The best reliever in Potomac thus far this season has already been bumped up; Brian Dupra posted a nifty 23/1 K/BB ratio and earned his way to AA. Robert Benincasa already has 5 saves with good numbers. Derek Self has great numbers and has given up just three base-runners in 10 innings thus far. So the Nats are getting some great relief. Gilberto Mendez hasn’t walked a guy yet and is one of the youngest guys in the league, so he’s clearly holding his own after posting a 0.91 ERA in low-A last year.

Most Deserving of a promotion: Outside of Dupra, its hard to pinpoint someone that really is pushing for a promotion out of this squad right now. Bacus is pitching well but he’s just got a month of high-A experience; lets see how he does for a half season. I could see the late-inning crew of Self, Benincasa and Bryan Harper possibly getting moved up sooner than later. But none of the starters really are making a case for promotion right now.

Most in Jeopardy of a demotion/release: Clearly for me the guy in trouble is Mooneyham; you just can’t be walking that many guys and have as little swing-and-miss capabilities to counter-balance your wildness. Before his injury, Encarnacion was struggling with his command too; I can see him back in low-A. Lastly Ronald Pena just is not fooling anybody right now; he’s got just 5 Ks in 20 innings and would be in more jeopardy if there weren’t other candidates ahead of him to replace at this point.

Low-A/Hagerstown

Pitcher	Start Trend Line	W/L	ERA	Whip	FIP	K/BB Ratio	# of innings	Apps/Starts
Pivetta	A,A-,F,F,B+	3-2	4.57	1.48	4.36	13/10	21.2	5/5
Voth	A,D,A-,D/short	0-2	2.91	1.38	2.7	26/10	21.1	5/5
Giolito	D-,A+,A,C-,C-	1-0	2.95	1.22	3.62	24/11	21.1	5/5
Anderson	A,A+,F,D-	3-0	6.33	1.36	4.98	13/6	21.1	5/3
Johansen	B,B+,F,C-	2-0	5.21	1.53	3.84	17/11	19	4/4

Suero	D,A,B,A	3-0	1.20	0.88	3.53	13/2	21.2	5/0
Cooper	B,A+,D	2-0	2.81	1.31	2.57	11/1	16	5/0
Jthomas	A+,A-	1-2	2.53	1.22	4.51	4/5	10.2	5/0
Ullmann	B+	0-0	0.00	0.8	2.67	9/2	10	4/0
Hollins	A-	2-0	4.35	1.74	3.86	9/7	10.1	8/0

Silvestre	B+,inc (inj)->d/l	0-0	3.00	1.33	2.24	7/2	6	2/2
Simms	A,A,A,A+->promoted	0-0	0.98	0.82	2.05	20/2	18.1	5/0
Spann	B+,A-,B+,B+->promoted	2-0	1.20	1.13	2.77	15/4	15	4/0

Rotation Discussion:

Hagerstown is taking the South Atlantic league by storm, leading its division by 5.5 games already. And they’re getting some great pitching. The team clearly seems to be doing “combo starts” with some of its guys: that’s why someone like Wander Suero has as many IP as the 5 guys in the “rotation.” So, when it comes to judging starts nearly the entire staff in Hagerstown has “start length” outings to assign grades to. I like what I see out of Austin Voth so far, and Lucas Giolito is clearly holding his own in full-season ball (both these guys feature more than a K/inning, which is great to see especially out of the undersized Voth). Meanwhile we’re seeing some worrying wildness out of Jake Johansen, which will not quell the “he’s too big to be a starter so he’s destined for the bullpen” crowd.

Bullpen Notables

John Simms (11th rounder in 2012) and Matthew Spann (booty for the team’s sticking its nose into the David DeJesus waiver situation last year) have both already forced promotions thanks to excellent results. Otherwise there really isn’t much in the way of a traditional “bullpen” in Hagerstown to talk about.

Most Deserving of a promotion: I’d say Voth and Jake Walsh, who older guys who are mowing guys down in Low-A and may need to be challenged by better/older hitters.

Most in Jeopardy of a demotion: One of the older guys on this staff (Dixon Anderson) isn’t putting up the numbers he needs to be putting up as a college senior 2011 draftee in low-A. Youngster Nicholas Pivetta is also struggling with the jump to full-season ball out of JuCo and may be dumped back to XST at some point. But it should also be said that we’re kind of squinting for bad performances out of the Low-A squad; both these guys’ numbers are better than practically anyone in AA right now.

Top Prospect Review

From a trending perspective for our top 10 prospect arms (in rough order of their typical rankings on prospect lists):

Giolito is succeeding so far, though isn’t as dominant yet to be pushing for a promotion to High-A
Cole is holding his own and is the best AA starter right now, but again isn’t entirely pushing for a AAA promotion just quite yet.
Solis has yet to appear thanks to a late spring training injury.
Rivero has really struggled since his arrival
Johansen has shown some wildness and not as much swing-and-miss stuff as he did in short-season ball.
Purke has been awful and it may be time to move him to the Pen.
Voth has been excellent and is probably the closest to a promotion.
Barrett and Treinien have both earned promotions to provide MLB cover, and when in AAA have been effective
Jefry Rodriguez is in XST and didn’t make a full-season team.

Conclusions:

So far, I must say i’m a bit disappointed in the performance of the AA squad, but its great to see the promise of the Low-A squad. I’m slightly worried about how our closer-to-the-majors top prospect arms are looking; lets re-visit in a month and see how it looks.

Written by Todd Boss

May 5th, 2014 at 9:01 am

Posted in Minor League Pitching,Minor League Rotation Reviews

Tagged with aaron barrett, aaron laffey, aj cole, austin voth, blake schwartz, blake treinen, brad meyers, brett mooneyham, brian dupra, bryan harper, christian garcia, dakota bacus, daniel stange, danny rosenbaum, david dejesus, derek self, dixon anderson, doug fister, felipe rivero, gabriel alfaro, gilberto mendez, gio gonzalez, ian desmond, jake johansen, jake walsh, jefry rodriguez, john simms, josh roenicke, kylin turnbull, lucas giolito, luke erickson, matt grace, matthew purke, matthew spann, mirowski, nicholas pivetta, nick lee, omar poveda, pat lehman, paul demny, pedro encarnacion, rafael martin, robert benincasa, ronald pena, ryan mattheus, ryan tatusko, sammy solis, tanner roark, taylor hill, taylor jordan, wander suero, xavier cedeno, zach jackson

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