Nationals Arm Race

Is Stammen lining himself up as the next MLB spot-starter? Photo unknown credit via sabermetrics.com

Both the Carolina league and the South Atlantic league start this cycle on all-star break.  We had various members of Potomac and Hagerstown make and play in the all star games.  See the Tuesday 6/21 link below for a quick review of all-star game participants.

Note on how I’m defining “starters” for this post: since the short-seasons generally are easing pitchers into future starting roles, there’s sometimes two starters listed per game.  Especially if one guy starts and goes 3 innings, then another goes for 3-4 afterwards.  I’ll mention both these players for each game they do this, hoping that eventually the rotations will stabilize.

Here are the daily links from NationalsProspects, for reference below:

• Tuesday 6/21 game reviews (Martin, Martis, Potomac off, Hagerstown off, Bates, Chico & Mieses)
• Wednesday 6/22 game reviews (Milone, Roark, Potomac off, Hagerstown off, Demmin, GCL Off)
• Thursday 6/23 game reviews (Stammen, Davis, Olbrychowski, Grace, Estevez, King)
• Friday 6/24 game reviews (Maya, Peacock, Holder, Jordan, Encarnation, Karns & Meza)
• Saturday 6/25 game reviews (Tatusko & Meyers, Arneson, Demny, Solis, MRodriguez & KLopez, Baez)

Good

• JD Martin had a nice 6/21 start; 6ip, 2er (on a 2 run homer).  Was this a spot start?  (See news and notes section).
• Colin Bates had his second nice “start” in a row (since his previous appearance was actually in relief).  5 innings of one-hit ball to continue Auburn’s nice start to the season.  The Citizen posted an interesting human-interest story about Bates here at auburnpub.com (where you can get an RSS feed of Doubleday stories).
• Matt Chico had a decent rehab start in the GCL; 4 innings, 4 hits and just one run.  Why is he getting stretched out?  He’s been in a situational lefty role all year, and there’s no room for starters in AAA.  If anything, the team needs to replace LOOGY Doug Slaten in the majors, and Chico could be a logical candidate.
• Adalberto Mieses got the “relief start” in the GCL on 6/21 and pitched well.  4ip, 3 hits, one run with 4 ks.  A good stateside start for the DSL 2010 graduate.
• Tom Milone‘s 6/22 start was a tale of two innings.  6ip, 5hits and 3 runs despite 0 walks and 7Ks.   He gave up a run in the 3rd by advancing a runner into scoring position via a Balk, then giving up a bloop hit.  In the 6th he gave up a double then a homer to turn 5 baserunners into 3 runs and give his line a mediocre feeling.  In reality 5 baserunners in 6 innings is pretty good, and Milone departed having completed 6 innings with a 7-3 lead after only 81 pitches.  It seems to me he could probably have gone at least 8, but Gaudin needed some rehab work.  The nights work extends his ridiculously good k/bb ratio on the season to 89/5 in 81 innings.
• Ryan Demmin was dominant for Auburn on 6/22: 5P, 2H, 0R, 2BB, 3K.   As well as he should be, having also dominated this level last year.  Unfortunately, he’s now in short-A for the 2nd year in a row, making him rather “old” for the league.  Lets hope he gets his mojo back and can get back to Potomac.
• Craig Stammen made perhaps his best start of the season (certainly since mid-April) on 6/23: 8.1 IP, 5H, 2R, 0ER, 1BB, 9K.  I’ve always liked Stammen; his FIP and xFIP were 2nd best on the team of any starter in 2010 not named Strasburg.  I always felt he was unlucky on the mound and pitched better than his ERA and W/L record.  What I find interesting is the franchise’s handling of  him; is he a starter or is he a reliever?  He’s been starting all year in Syracuse, but he featured in a relief mode when he was called up earlier this year, and he was demoted to long-relief last year mid-season.  If his best shot at the majors is in a relief mode, then he should be relieving in AAA.  That being said… his numbers in AAA as a starter have been pretty good this season.  Maybe he’s still in line for a starter promotion (though he’s clearly behind Milone for “next guy to get called up”).
• Erik Davis had a good quality start on 6/23: 6IP, 6H, 2R, ER, 2BB, 3K.  Nothing special, not incredibly dominant, but a good consistent performance.  He gives up a lot of baserunners but he’s only really had one “bad” outing all season and seems like a decent trade bounty for Alberto Gonzalez at this point.
• Wirkin Estevez certainly rebounded nicely from his previous bad start on 6/23: 5IP, 1H, 0R, BB, 5K.  This team looks like it may have several dominant arms early on.
• Another start, another ho-hum excellent outing in AA for Brad Peacock: 62/3 IP, 5H, 0R, BB, 6K.   At some point, the team is going to have to make room for him in Syracuse to see what he does at the next level, because he’s clearly exhausted the challenges facing him in AA.
• Taylor Jordan continues to impress at Hagerstown, going for 7IP, 5H, 2R, 2ER, BB, 8K on 6/24.  His last few starts weren’t necessarily impressive but his numbers on the season as a whole are good.  He now stands at 8-3 with a 2.83 era.
• Nathan Karns was fantastic in a 3inning “start” on 6/24: 3IP, 1H, 0R, 1BB, 5K.  I’m not sure if he’s a “starter” or not but we’ll consider this a “stretching out” exercise.
• Christian Meza pitched just as effectively as Karns on 6/24: 3IP, 1H, 0R, 0BB, 5K.
• Yuniesky Maya started out well on 6/24 but the game was suspended, so we’ll give him a “good” for 3 clean innings of work.
• Brad Meyers had a good quality start on 6/24: 6IP, 6H, 2R, 2ER, BB, 3K.
• Erik Arneson had an excellent AA outing on 6/25: 7IP, 8H, 1R, 0ER, 0BB, 9K.
• 2011 draftee Manny Rodriguez threw 3 excellent innings for Auburn on 6/25 as he continues to get stretched out for (possibly) a rotational spot.  3IP, 0H, 0R, BB, 3K.
• Gregory Baez threw a pretty dominant GCL start on 6/25: 6IP, 4H, 1R, 1ER, BB, K.

Bad

• All we can say about Brandon King‘s 2011 debut was, wow.  4⅓ IP, 8H, 12R, 12ER, 4BB, 5Ks.  King was a late-round highschool pick in 2009 who signed (a rarity) and is now repeating the GCL for the third season.  I hate to say it, but he was bad last year, this start was pretty durn awful, and you have to wonder about the future prospects of a guy who can’t pitch his way out of the rookie league.
• Pedro Encarnation has not started the Short-A well.  His 6/24 start: 3⅓ IP, 6H, 5R, 5ER, 0BB, 0K, 2HR.
• Paul Demny got rocked for Potomac on 6/25: 6IP, 12H, 6R, 2ER, BB, 3K.  Not a good follow up to one of his best starts of the year.

Mediocre/Inconclusive

• Shairon Martis had a good and bad outing 6/21: he gave up 8 hits but had 8Ks to go with them.   Martis has pretty good AA numbers at this point; not sure what he’s proving by staying down there.  I think the team needs to decide if he’s a prospect or if he’s an org player.
• Tanner Roark was *just* quite not dominant enough to give him a “good” start, despite his 6/22 outing qualifying as a “quality start.”  Line: 6⅓ IP 5H, 3ER, 2BB, 5K.   Unlike Milone, who also gave up 3 runs in 6 innings on only 5 hits Roark had a couple of walks and not as many Ks.  He’s just not dominating guys like he did last year.  My concern for Roark is that he’s now repeating AA in his 4th pro season out of college and should be improving, not getting worse.
• Adam Olbrychowski‘s first start as a rotation regular in Potomac was ok: 5IP, 6H, 3R, 3ER, 2BB, 7K.  Lots of strikeouts, which is promising.  He got the win for his efforts.
• Matt Grace certainly improved from his previous debacle of a start, spinning a QS on 6/23: 6IP, 5H, 3R, 3ER, BB, 6K.  He’s slightly unlucky with 6 baserunners turning into 3 runs, but I like the K/9 rates.
• Trevor Holder had a decent start on 6/24: 5⅓ IP, 7H, 3R, 2ER, 0BB, 3K.
• Ryan Tatusko got a psuedo-start on 6/25, finishing Maya’s game with 4 soso innings.  4IP, 6H, 2ER, BB, 4K, HR.
• Sammy Solis continues to stretch out in Hagerstown, having an up and down game on 6/25: 7IP, 7H, 4R, 4ER, BB, 5K, WP, HBP.
• Kelvin Lopez pitched 4 innings on 6/25, going for 4IP, 4H, 2R, 2ER, 0BB, 1K.

Relievers of Note and other Thoughts

• Why did JD Martin get a Syracuse start?  He seems to have taken Brad Meyers‘ normal turn, but Meyers pitched later on in the cycle.  Seems odd; normally you plan for the need for a 2nd starter because of DHs when they arise, not 5 days prior.
• Masn’s Byron Kerr had a nice little feature about Denny Rosenbaum.
• Brad Peacock and Bryce Harper were named to the US team for the Futures Game, high praise indeed for both players.  These rosters are essentially Minor League all star teams and the rosters read like whos-who’s of the top prospects of today.
• Peacock also got a mention from Byron Kerr here, talking about his mechanics.
• Evan Bronson seems to have been the victim of Potomac’s Adam Olbrychowski-as-a-starter experiment.  Bronson wasn’t lights-out as a spot starter and moves back to the bullpen.  He may get another chance if the team tires of Trevor Holder’s mediocre performances.
• Christopher McKenzie, who started the year in Hagerstown’s but had three horrific starts in a row early in the season, got absolutely hammered in his first GCL outing; 4 hits and 3 walks in a third of an inning, resulting in 7 runs and an ERA of 126.  Not a great start to his attempts to get back to a full-season squad.
• Chein-Ming Wang is *finally* going out on rehab, with a planned appearance in Hagerstown monday 6/27.  It is slightly surprising that he’s going to Hagerstown, meaning that our 5 excellent prospects there will have their rotation scrambled slightly.  I think he would have made more sense in Potomac, where the starters have been less impressive all season.  Wang’s beginning of rehab is significant; it starts the clock from a month downward before a major decision has to be made; he has no minor league options so at the end of the period he either joins the 25-man roster, goes back on the DL or gets released.
• Former 40-man member and lost 2009 rule-5 draftee Zech Zinicola pitched his way to a promotion, including a 5k 2 inning performance on 6/24.  This will be his fourth shot at AAA, having consistently shown for the last few years he’s more than capable of dominating in AA but never quite capable at the next level.  Is he still a prospect?  He’s 26, in his 5th professional season, and failed to impress when Toronto took him in the rule5.  Of course, there’s always value in fungible bullpen arms.

Trends

AAA trends (in rotation order)
Detwiler    good,good,soso,soso,bad,soso,bad,bad,bad,soso,soso,good,soso,soso
Meyers    soso,good,soso,good,bad,soso,bad,good,good
Milone    good,soso,soso,bad,great,good,great,soso,good,soso,good,soso
Stammen    good,soso,great,bad,soso,good,soso,soso,soso,soso->promoted,bad,great
Maya        bad,soso,soso,good,great,good,soso,soso,soso->promoted,bad,good (cut short)

AA Trends:
Roark        bad,good,incomplete (2 ip cut short),soso,soso,awful,good,soso
Peacock    soso,good,great,good,very good,bad,great,great,good,soso,good,good
EDavis    good,soso,good,bad,soso,incomplete (knee injury->dl),soso,good,soso,good,soso,good
Martis     bad,bad,soso,soso,good,bad,good->dl,soso,great,soso
Arneson    soso,soso,good

High-A Trends:
Rosenbaum    soso,good,good,soso,good,good,soso,bad,good,bad,great,good,soso
Olbrychowski soso,good
Holder    soso,bad,bad,soso,soso,soso,good,bad,awful,good,awful,good,soso,soso
Demny        good,bad,good,good,soso,soso,bad,bad,soso,soso,soso,great,bad
Selik        soso,bad->dl,soso,soso,great,good,soso,good

Low-A Trends:
Jordan    good,soso,good,good->dl,soso,soso,soso,good,good,bad,soso,soso,good
Grace        good,bad,bad,bad,good,soso,soso,soso,soso,soso,good,soso,awful,soso
Solis        soso,soso,good,good,soso
Cole        soso,soso,bad,good,good
Ray        great,great,good,2ip short outing,good,great,soso,soso

Short-A Trends
Bates        good,great
Demmin    good,good
Estevez    bad,great
Encarnation    bad,bad
KLopez    bad

GCL Trends
Karns        soso,great
Meza        great
Mieses    good
King        awful
(Chico    good)

Top 3 starters deserving promotion: Milone, Peacock, Karns (more because he’s way too old for GCL)
Top 3 starters whose jobs are in jeopardy: Any short-A starter who doesn’t perform well, with the influx of 2011 draftees.  It could be a bloodbath of pitcher competition and releases, especially guys who didn’t exactly light the world on fire last year in short season competitions.

This is a statistical look at the relative ages of our debut Short-A and Rookie league pitching staffs, as compared to the rest of their league, for the purposes of giving future context to the performances of our staff as the season progresses.  I initially did this for all the full-season minor league affiliates in Early May, and this time am catching the initial rosters.

The definitions I’m using for each “age classification” are as follows:

• “Really Young” is a pitcher in the lowest quartile of pitchers by age, meaning he’s one of the youngest 25% of pitchers in the league.
• “Young” is a pitcher in the 25-50% quartile.
• “Old” is a pitcher in the 50-75% quartile
• “Really Old” is a pitcher in the 75th quartile or above.

I’m using these quartiles because (frankly) MS Excel makes it pretty easy to calculate :-).  So keep that in mind when you see a pitcher listed as “Really Old” for the league but may be right at the 75th-76th quartile range.

For the Short-A season, just looking at pitchers, here’s how the percentiles broke down:

The short-A age ranges are nearly identical to the age ranges for Low-A, a fact that kind of surprised me.  I would have figured that the short-A squads would be filled with College Jrs and Srs newly drafted, while the low-A team would be mostly HS and DSL grads that were working their way up the system.  In reality there’s almost no age difference between the two leagues (Short-A is younger across the board, usually by a few months).

Here’s the Nationals Short-A pitching staff as of 6/22/11:

This is a relatively “young” squad, all things considered.  Bates and Demmin have both dominated their first two starts, not surprising given their status as being relatively old for the league.  Jenkins and Demmin were both “demoted” to the Short-A squad from full squad teams, so its not as if the franchise wasn’t trying to put these guys in the right spot.  Even the three guys listed as “old” only missed the 50% percentile cutoff by a month or so.  Our other three starters in Short-A (Estevez, Encarnation and Lopez)  are all young or really young for the level, something to keep in mind if they struggle.

How about the GCL Squad? Here’s the averages across the whole GCL league:

That’s right; there’s a kid who is 16 years, 10 months playing pro ball in the GCL league.  I don’t know about you, but there’s something wrong to me to have children that young playing a pro sport.  Anyway.

We don’t really know at this point who the GCL starters are, but here’s the GCL Nationals squad as of 6/24/11:

Just for the Record, rehabbing Matt Chico is the oldest player in the GCL by nearly three years.

I see a lot of “olds” and “really olds” for this level.  We know that Nathan Karns has struggled with injury ever since his 2009 drafting, so he’s understantable.  Bobby Lucas JUST signed a few days ago (our 2011 27th rounder) and played at a weak Div-1 team, so he makes sense in the GCL to see what he has.  Likewise with Todd Simko, our 2011 21st round pick.  So, Lets wait and see if these guys earn quick promotions to short-A to play with their contemporaries.  Remember, we drafted so many arms it is going to be difficult to find spots for all of them.

Other 2011 “old” draftees on this squad include Ferrer and Hawkins.  Mieses is a DSL grad who pitched well in 2010 in a starting role.  Meanwhile, Hanks and Herrera were 2010 juco draftees and slightly “old” for the level.  Lastly McKenzie was with Hagerstown but had three horrific starts in a row early in the season and was put back in Extended Spring.  Unfortunately for him, his first GCL outing was not good either; 4 hits and 3 walks in a third of an inning, resulting in 7 runs and an ERA of 126.

A.J. Cole has quietly begun to dominate low-A ball. photo: AP

(Programming Note: as you may have noticed, i’m about 3 versions of this recurring post behind.  A long weekend away and then two weeks of quick deadlines at work and todo items at home have conspired against these posts.  I hate it when life interferes with blogging!  Anyway, I’ve kept up-to-date the trends, copied over some of the “news and notes” from the older posts and will just pick up with the 14th cycle).

The time has come to add in Short-A (starting 6/17) and GCL (6/20).  There’s 15 arms assigned to the Auburn Doubledays, and it will take a bit to determine who the starters are.  I’ll do a couple of quick posts with predictions versus actual rosters (though predicting the short-season squads is really difficult, since most of the guys there are 2011 draftees).  As always, Sue Dinem has a nice post highlighting where the Auburn roster guys came from (2010 assignment or 2011 draftee).  Lastly, Byron Kerr highlighted the opening day for the Auburn affiliate.

Here are the daily links from NationalsProspects, for reference below:

• Thursday 6/16 game reviews (Meyers, Roark, Bronson, Cole & McCatty)
• Friday 6/17 game reviews (Milone, Davis, Potomac Rained out, Ray, Demmin & Bates)
• Saturday 6/18 game reviews (Stammen, Peacock & Martinez, Holder & Demny, Jordan, Estevez)
• Sunday 6/19 game reviews (Maya, Arneson, Potomac rainout, Solis, Encarnation)
• Monday 6/20 game reviews (Detwiler, Harrisburg/Potomac/Hagerstown off, Lopez, Karns)

Good

• Brad Meyers rebounded from a string of sub-par to bad starts to take the win on 6/16.  Line: 7IP, 7H, 2ER, BB, 4K, HR.  Meyers has (to this point) kept up his unbelievable k/bb ratio (39 to 4 in AAA, 77 to 4 on the season), but has been struggled in AAA thus far (a 4.80 era and well over a hit per inning).
• Tanner Roark also rebounded on 6/16, putting in a quality start (2er in 6ip).   He still seems to have taken a severe step backwards this year (with a 6.00 era on the season) and may be pitching his way out of the team’s long term plans.
• AJ Cole struck out 9 in 5 innings on 6/16, giving him 40 (against 8 walks) in 32 low-A innings thus far.  I’ll take that from a 19yr old.
• Ryan Demmin‘s return to starting pitching on 6/17 for Auburn went well; 5IP, 3H, 1R, 1ER, 3BB, 4K.  He washed out of Potomac’s bullpen earlier in the year; lets see if he can stick in Auburn’s rotation.
• Collin Bates may not have started 6/17’s Auburn game, but he went 4 innings and clearly seems in competition for the rotation (so i’ll grade him here).  Results?  Pretty dominant: 4IP, 2H, 0R, 0BB, 3K.    Lets see if he gets a start the next time through the rotation.
• Brad Peacock got a bit unlucky on 6/17, turning 4 hits over 7 innings into 3 runs, but another 7Ks to pad his gaudy season numbers helped him to the victory.   Honestly, I’m not sure what he really has left to prove in AA; why do we keep Stammen in the AAA rotation if he’s being used out of the pen when he gets called up?
• Paul Demny had his best outing of the year on 6/18, pitching 5 innings of one-hit ball before making way for his bullpen.
• Erik Arneson put up good numbers for Harrisburg (this time) on 6/19: 3 hits and 7 Ks over 6 innings.  As i’ve said before, Arneson seems to have picked the short straw and seems to be the organization’s go-to spot starter.

Bad

• Evan Bronson got hit very hard on 6/16 on the day he seemingly took over Mitchell Clegg‘s rotation spot, giving up 11 hits in 5 and a third.
• An ugly outing for Craig Stammen, perhaps jet-lagged from his brief callup on 6/18.  Line: 3IP 6H, 5ER, BB, 2K, 2HR.
• Carlos Martinez got a spot start to cover for a Harrisburg doubleheader on 6/18, and in doing so became the 12th starter used in AA.  The result?  He showed why he’s not in the rotation, getting peppered for 6 hits and 3 runs over 4 innings.
• Wirkin Estevez had an interesting game in Auburn’s 2nd game of the season on 6/18: 3⅔ IP, 9H, 6R, 6ER, BB, 6K.   9 hits but 6 Ks in less than 4 innings?   Estevez pitched well in the DSL last year, but history has shown that it may not translate to the continental pro game.
• Yunesky Maya returned to Syracuse from a 4-game stint in the bigs, and must have been depressed for his 6/19 start.  He gave up 10 hits over 5 innings.  Unfortunately, I think he better get used to living in upstate New York for a while.  Amazingly he was in line for the victory by virtue of his team’s offense.
• Pedro Encarnation‘s first short-A start was not terrible, but wasn’t great; 3/ 2/3 innings, 3 runs, 4 walks. I’m surprised he’s in the short-A rotation, given that he’s not really shown us much during his first two pro seasons.
• A bad short-A start for Kelvin Lopez, another guy who wasn’t exactly great for us in the GCL last year.  Line: 3⅓ IP, 5H, 3R, 3ER, 2BB, 3K.

Mediocre/Inconclusive

• Shane McCatty had a run of the mill spot-start on 6/16: 4ip, 5 hits, 3 runs (2 earned).  It is the 2nd time in 2 weeks that one of the lesser bullpen arms in Hagerstown has been pressed into action.  Maybe they should have kept Garrett Mock down there for the playoff push.
• Tommy Milone had a poor start (by his standards) on 6/17, giving up 7 hits and 5 runs (4 earned) in less than 6 innings.  He continues his mastery of the strike zone though, now standing at 82ks against 5 walks on the year.  Unfortunately, his ERA has been creeping up over the past few starts, leaking runs here and there.  I still think the team could make use of him in the rotation if the need arises, this year.
• Erik Davis obviously was around the plate on 6/17, giving up 10 hits to go against 8Ks (and 0 walks) in a 6 inning effort.
• Robbie Ray wasn’t quite as dominant as we’ve come to expect on 6/17, but only gave up one run through 5 to take a no-decision.  He gave up quite a few hits and didn’t have nearly the dominant K rates as he has in previous games.  He’s still been amazingly dominant considering his age and his lack of pro experience.
• Trevor Holder‘s performance on 6/18 was probably better than his box score showed: 7 hits and 3 runs over 6 and a third, but all three runs came on one big homer.  It was enough to cost him the loss.
• Taylor Jordan had a quality start on 6/18, but nothing special.  6ip, 3 runs, a couple of Ks.  He’s continued to get wins for Hagerstown with decent numbers and not-very-dominant stuff.  But he has a sub 3.00 era and doesn’t walk a ton of guys.  I don’t know how much upside that means.
• Sammy Solis piched out the string for a Hagerstown team that was eliminated from the first half playoffs on 6/19: 4 innings, couple of earned runs, 5 ks.  Nothing bad, but nothing special.
• Another mediocre (for him) start for Ross Detwiler on 6/20: 6⅔ IP, 3H, 2R, 2ER, 4BB, 3K.  I continue to maintain he’s injured in some way or another and trying to pitch through it.
• Nathan Karns had an up-and-down rehab start in GCL (season opener on 6/20).  2⅔ IP, 1H, 0R, 2BB, 2K.  Its usually difficult to tell who the “starters” are in GCL, but we’ll do our best.

Relievers of Note and other Thoughts

• Mark Zuckerman reports that Chien-Ming Wang is (finally) ready to leave extended spring training and go out on a rehab assignment.  This means he’s going to supplant a starter, somewhere in the system.  I’d guess he’s going to Potomac to start, as they seem to have the least-performing collection of starters right now and he’d completely overmatch the younger hitters in low-A.  The implication of his going out on a rehab assignment is this: he only gets 30 days in the minors (probably about 6 starts) before the Nats have to make a decision on what to do with him.  He has no minor league options, so in 30 days he either joins the 25-man roster, goes back on the DL or is DFA’d.  After all we’ve invested in him (and for the sake of his career), I’m hoping he still has something left.
• The rotation in Harrisburg has proved challenging to keep up with; they’ve now used 11 different starters and we’re only about a 1/2 of the way through the season.  At the time of this writing I can’t tell any longer who is really in the rotation.  Tatusko seems back, but Arneson has pitched well out of the bullpen (though only mediocre as a spot-starter).  I guess its a good problem to have, as they’ve rolled to 10 straight wins recently and are getting pretty dominant performances out of 3/5ths of their rotation nearly every time out.
• Jimmy Barthmaier got slaughtered out of the pen on 6/1, which broke up a decent string of appearances for him lately.  He’s got ugly season-long numbers, is old for AA, and may be on his way out.
• Hagerstown relievers Shane McCatty and Ben Graham both got torched in a very odd 6/1 Hagerstown game.  Its the 3rd such god-awful outing for McCatty this year, sprinkled around decent ones.  Same story for Graham.  Both guys really aren’t getting the k/9 rates they need as bullpen options in the low-minors to have any shot of moving up.
• Christopher Manno numbers, as of June 1st: 25 1/3 innings, 0 earned runs, 8 hits, FOURTY strikeouts against eight walks.  As frequent commenter Mark L might say, “what does this guy have to do to get promoted??”  He proved later on in the month that he is human (giving up a few runs here and there towards the end of the first half), but he still has dominant numbers and merits a promotion.
• Ryan Mattheus looks like he’s fully recovered from 2009 Tommy John surgery, with 24 Ks in 21 innings and only 10 hits allowed through AA and AAA stints on the season.  If anything his numbers have improved at AAA.  His problem is 40-man status; he passed through waivers and was retained by the club, and I’m guessing they won’t want to put him back on until completely necessary (perhaps 9/1 callup?).  Update: he got his long awaited shot at the majors, having been added to the 40-man on 6/10/10. He replaces Cole Kimball, who has “right shoulder inflammation” (as nearly every major league pitcher does) and went on the 15-day DL. Kimball has been pretty effective thus far, but is walking guys far too often and the rest may do him some good.
• Not that Bryce Harper is involved with the pitching in Hagerstown, but I thought i’d take a quick look at how he’s faring with his latest outburst.  As of 6/3, here’s his ranks in the entire Sally League in various categories: 6th in batting average (.346), 3rd in OBP (.432), t-1st in homers, 1st in RBI, 1st in Total bases, 3rd in OPS (1.055), and he’s even t-14th in stolen bases.  Not a bad set of rankings considering he’s like the 2nd youngest guy in the league.
• Brad Peacock is starting to get noticed by some of the ESPN scouts.  Jason Grey featured Peacock on 6/2 from an NL-only fantasy perspective, noting he’s at 95mph with a “good” curve and a developing change-up.  That’s not going to be enough to be a major league starter.  Grey’s espn colleague Keith Law took a Peacock-related question on 6/2, noting that Peacock really is a one-pitch pitcher without an above-average 2nd pitch according to most scouts he’s asked about.  Neither of these reports is really that positive about Peacock’s future unfortunately.  My guess is that he will probably be told to start really working on his change-up, which reportedly has good velocity delta but not much movement and not much command.  You would have to think Peacock needs good command of that third pitch to have any shot at being a starter.
• Interesting Harrisburg moves last week: Oliver Perez going to the DL, with Arneson continuing his pin-ball assignments throughout the organization, coming back down from Syracuse.  He seems to be the designated spot-starter/moving man this season. Erik Davis was on the DL for a quick trip and regains his rotation spot, but it remains to be seen what the rotations look like after this shakes out.
• What is going on with Bobby Hansen??  He hasn’t appeared in a game for Hagerstown since 6/1, but isn’t on the DL.  He seems to have given his rotation spot to Sammy Solis … but hasn’t appeared since.  He wasn’t Hagerstown’s worst starter and had pretty good numbers as a 21-yr old in low-A.  Is he hurt?  Is he in the dog house?  Has he gone and hooked up with the manager’s daughter?
• Tom Milone is starting to get noticed by the national press.  Rob Sickels had a feature on him on 6/20, as did Rob Neyer on sbnation.com
• The busleaguesbaseball blog featured Auburn on 6/20.
• 9-lives pitcher Garrett Mock was placed on the 7-day DL in Harrisburg after two brutal starts there.   As of 6/21, here’s the list of pitchers on the 7-day DL in AA: Mock, Perez, Atilano and Chico.  In other words, a collection of guys who are all way too old for AA and are closer to their outright release than making it back to the big club.
• We may soon see a whole slew of 2011 draftees taking over rotation spots in Auburn.  Some of the “starters” we have there have not exactly impressed during their pro careers, and in some cases makes you wonder how they still have jobs.

Trends

Top 3 deserving promotion: Peacock, Ray, Milone
Top 3 whose jobs are in jeopardy: Mock, Holder, Grace

Sammy Solis finally makes his long awaited Nats debut. Photo: Mark Zuckerman via natsinsider blog.

The Dominican Summer League kicked off this cycle.  Sue Dinem does the recaps in the links below but I generally do not review and rate DSL arms.  Reason?  Too many names, too many guys who seem to go nowhere.  I’ll definitely be tracking the GCL and the short-A teams when they start up though.

Here are the daily links from NationalsProspects, for reference below:

• Friday 5/27 game reviews (Milone, Roark, Potomac rainout, Hansen)
• Saturday 5/28 game reviews (Stammen, Martis, Holder & Demny in Potomac DH, Jordan)
• Sunday 5/29 game reviews (Martin, Davis & Perez, Selik & Bronson, Grace)
• Monday 5/30 game reviews (Detwiler, Roark, Rosenbaum, Cole & Solis)
• Tuesday 5/31 game reviews (Meyers, Peacock, Mock on rehab, Ray)

Good

• Shairon Martis had another solid start in AA on 5/28: 6IP 5H 0R 1BB 5K.  What is this showing us about Martis that we didn’t already know?  I’m still questioning his AA rotational spot frankly.
• Taylor Jordan had an excellent outing on 5/28: 5IP 4H 1R 0ER 1BB 5K.
• Erik Davis had a decent start on 5/29 for Harrisburg: 5⅓ 5H 1R 1ER 3BB 2K.  He scattered his hits and base-runners effectively enough to get the victory.
• Oliver Perez had his 2nd excellent AA start in as many outings on 5/29: 6+ IP 5H 0R 0BB 5K.  Honestly, if we’re going to really consider Perez this season, shouldn’t we put him in Syracuse to see what he can do against better players?
• AJ Cole had his best pro start yet on 5/30, going for 5IP 2H 1R 1ER 1BB 6K.  That’s the kind of dominant line we’re looking for.
• Brad Peacock continued his dominance of AA, and created more calls for his promotion, with yet another dominant start on 5/31.  Line: 7+ IP 2H 1R 1ER 3BB 7K.  Among other startling season-long stats is his WHIP: 0.79.  Adam Kilgore featured him in the NatsJournal this week as well.
• Garrett Mock, as well he should have, put in a dominant start in Potomac on 5/31: 6IP 4H 0R 2BB 6K.  I’m guessing this is partly a rehab start, partly a spot-start for a Potomac team that had to play back-to-back double headers and exhausted their pitching staff.
• Robbie Ray was wild, but nearly unhittable, for Hagerstown on 5/31.  5IP 1H 0R 4BB 3K.   Season stats right now: 5 starts, 24 innings, 11 hits and ONE earned run.  I know he’s a youngster but is he quickly running of things to prove in low-A?

Bad

• Bobby Hanson‘s 5/27 start was unlucky: 5IP 5H 4R 4ER 0BB 6K 1HR.
• Trevor Holder put in another indictment of his draft slot on 5/28: 1⅔ IP 9H 8R 8ER 2BB 0K 1HR.   The awful outing raises his season ERA to 7.16 for a team that isn’t averaging nearly that many runs a game on offense.
• Paul Demny couldn’t do much better than Holder, getting tagged for 4IP 6H 6R 6ER 5BB 4K 2HR in the nightcap on 5/28.
• Spot starter JD Martin got shelled on 5/29: 3⅔ IP 8H 5R 5ER 0BB 3K 1HR.   I’m pretty sure he won’t be keeping the rotation spot.
• Denny Rosenbaum was battered for 13 hits over 7 2/3, with 7 of those base-runners turning into runs, while his offense was beign shut down yet again.  Final line: 7⅔ 13H 7R 3ER 2BB 5K.  The 2nd half can’t get here quickly enough for the P-Nats.
• Brady Meyers issued only his 2nd walk of the season en route to a loss in Syracuse 5/31: 5IP 8H 5R 5ER 1BB 2K 1HR.   But he also hit two batters in the first inning on the way to giving up 3 runs.  He seemed to settle down, cruising through the next 3 innings but gave up a quick single-homer to go down 5-0 in the fifth and got yanked.  Probably not the worst outing ever, but it wasn’t one of his best.

Mediocre/Inconclusive/Incomplete

• Tom Milone‘s 5/27 start wasn’t bad, but it wasn’t great.  Line: 6⅔ IP 7H 4R 4ER 1BB 6K.
• Tanner Roark‘s 5/27 start was interrupted by rain after 2 innings, so he gets an incomplete.  2IP 1H 0R 0BB 2K.
• Craig Stammen may have been pitching to the score on 5/28, as he went for 7IP 8H 3R 3ER 2BB 5K after getting 5 runs from his side in the first.  Can’t fault a pitcher for getting an easy W.
• Cameron Selik‘s high-A starts are getting better; his line on 5/29 was 5⅔ 5H 3R 2ER 1BB 2K in a losing effort.  Sue Dinem reports that he’s keeping the ball down more and commanding his slider a bit better than during his first few starts.
• Evan Bronson had a quality start foiled by a last-inning homer in the “nightcap” of 5/29: 6IP 6H 4R 4ER 2BB 3K 1HR.  This is Bronson’s third spot start of the season and at times he’s looked better than his regular rotation counter parts.  One wonders if there may be a shakeup for the last-place Potomac team.
• Matt Grace was staked a huge lead on 5/29 and pitched 7 innings en route to victory.  Line: 7IP 7H 4R 4ER 1BB 3K.
• Another start, and another question mark for Ross Detwiler, who labored through 6 innings in Syracuse on 5/30.  Line: 6IP 7H 4R 4ER 3BB 5K 1HR.  Not awful, but we expect better from a former 1st rounder.
• Tanner Roark recovered from a rough beginning to his 5/30 start, retiring 10 straight at one point and getting bailed out by his hitters.  Line: 6IP 7H 4R 4ER 3BB 2K 1HR.
• Sammy Solis‘s long awaited debut was up and down: 4 2/3 4H 3R 3ER 3BB 7K.  Lots of Ks and per Byron Kerr he was touching 95 (that’s fantastic if he can maintain that kind of speed as a lefty), but a bit wild.   He clearly tired in the 5th inning, having only given up one hit in the first four.  I’m guessing his next start will be more in the 6ip, 3h, 8k range.

Relievers of Note and other Thoughts

• Yunesky Maya, as we all know, became the first starter outside of the opening day 5 to get a game for the MLB club.  And he didn’t fare very well.  I’m guessing that he’ll be back in Syracuse after one more start.  He still can’t seem to avoid “the big inning” at the major league level.
• Cameron Selik was the subject of a nice piece by Masn.com’s Byron Kerr, in case you missed it.
• Still no idea who is making way for Solis in the Hagerstown rotation, since they had to use a 6th starter b/c of double headers this cycle.  My guess is still Grace.  We’ll see how it shakes up over the next 5 days.

Trends; last 5 starts

AAA trends (in rotation order)
Detwiler:      soso,bad,bad,bad,soso
Meyers          soso,good,soso,good,bad
Milone           bad,great,good,great,soso
Stammen     soso,good,soso,soso,soso
(Maya           great,good,soso,soso,soso->promoted)

AA Trends:
Martis           soso,soso,good,bad,good
OPerez           great,soso (1IP cut short),good
Peacock         very good,bad,great,great,good
Roark             bad,good,incomplete (2 ip cut short), soso
EDavis          bad,soso,incomplete (knee injury->dl),soso,good

High-A Trends:
Rosenbaum    good,soso,bad,good,bad
Clegg                unbelievably bad,soso,good,good,bad
Holder              soso,soso,good,bad,awful
Demny             good,soso,soso,bad,bad
Selik                  soso,bad->dl,soso,soso

Low-A Trends:
Jordan          good->dl,soso,soso,soso,good
Grace            soso,soso,soso,soso,soso
Cole                soso,soso,bad,good
Solis               soso
Ray                great,great,good,2ip short outing,good
Hansen         very good,soso,soso,good,good

Top 3 starters NEEDING promotion (as in, they’re not proving anything where they are): Perez, Martis, Mock
Top 3 starters earning a promotion right now: Peacock (who will stay here until he moves to AAA), Ray and no other real candidate right now.
Top 3 whose jobs are in jeopardy: The entire Potomac staff after Rosenbaum.

Brad Peacock continues to pitch like the best 41st round draft pick ever taken. Photo: uncredited via bleacherreport.com

Here are the daily links from NationalsProspects, for reference below:

• Sunday 5/22 game reviews (Stammen, Roark, Demny, Jordan)
• Monday 5/23 game reviews (Maya, Martis, Selik, Grace)
• Tuesday 5/24 game reviews (Detwiler, Davis, Rosenbaum, Hagerstown off-day)
• Wednesday 5/25 game reviews (Syracuse Off, Harrisburg rain-suspended, Clegg, Cole)
• Thursday 5/26 game reviews (Meyers, Peacock/Tatusko, Potomac Off, Ray)

Good

• Tanner Roark got back in the good column on 5/22, going for 6IP 3H 1R 1ER 1BB 4K.  This is more like the guy we saw last year, and I hope we see more of this going forward.
• Denny Rosenbaum had a good 5/24 start: 6⅔ IP 6H 4R 1ER 2BB 3K.   He was undone by his defense in the 7th, having only given up one run (unearned) in the first 6 innings.  In fact, reading the game log its hard to figure why any of his runs were earned, with two errors in the 7th turning a couple of routine plays into run-scoring opportunities.
• Brad Meyers had a nice little outing on 5/26: 6IP 7H 1R 1ER 0BB 3K.  He’s definitely holding his own in AAA thus far.
• Another start, another win for Brad Peacock on 5/26; 6⅔ IP 3H 2R 2ER 1BB 9K.  I’m really not sure what he has left to prove in AA.  In 55 innings thus far he’s got 75 Ks against 34 hits.  He lands on Baseball America’s hot sheet a second time.
• Harrisburg’s two spot starters/long men Ryan Tatusko and Jimmy Barthmaier both pitched the 2nd half of 5/26’s double header effectively, with Barthmaier getting the win.  I’d like to see Tatusko get his mojo back after such a great 2010 (see reliever notes below).

Bad

• Paul Demny continued his downward slide with a pretty bad 5/22 performance in Potomac; 2⅔ 7H 6R 5ER 2BB 1K.
• Shairon Martis was well into a beat down on 5/23 when a rain delay ended his night mercifully.  Line: 3IP 4H 5R 5ER 3BB 1K 1HR.
• I’m officially of the belief that Ross Detwiler is hurt.  On 5/24 he got lit up again: 3⅔ IP 10H 8R 6ER 1BB 1K.   This is the fifth straight outing he’s given up 4 runs or more, and the 2nd outing this month where he’s flat out been awful.  Ironically, his two big blowups were both against Rochester.  Maybe they just have his number or hit lefties well.
• Mitchell Clegg got hammered in Potomac on 5/25.  1⅔ IP 5H 8R 5ER 3BB 1K 1HR.  Throw in a hit-batsman as well.
• AJ Cole continues to match up poorly to his 2010 draftee counter part Robbie Ray in Hagerstown, getting hit on 5/25 to the tune of 4⅔ 7H 4R 2ER 1BB 5K 1HR.  I have to keep reminding myself, “he’s only 19.  He’s only 19.”

Mediocre/Inconclusive/Incomplete

• Craig Stammen was uncharacteristically wild on 5/22 for Syracuse but held on for the victory as his team bashed its way to its seventh straight victory.  Line: 5IP 7H 3R 3ER 4BB 2K.
• Taylor Jordan wasn’t awful on 5/22, but he wasn’t great either: 5IP 4H 4R 3ER 3BB 3K.  He’s yet to really have the dominant outings that he started the season with since coming off the DL, though this loss was just his first of the year.
• Yunesky Maya pitched into the 8th inning, giving up 4 earned runs and taking the loss for Syracuse on 5/23.  Line: 7⅔ IP 6H 4R 4ER 2BB 7K.  It didn’t really matter how good Maya did; Syracuse got shut down by 2009 first rounder Kyle Gibson.
• Cameron Selik‘s line and game result on 5/23 betrays how he pitched overall: 5IP 3H 3R 3ER 2BB 6K 1HR.  He started the game BB,BB,K and then 3-run homer to account for all 3 of his runs on the night.  The rest of the way: 4 1/3, 2H, 0R, 0BB, 5K.  But all 5 innings counted, and Selik took the loss.  Per Sue Dinem’s recap, he was hitting 92 with good speed separation between his fastball and curve.
• Matt Grace went enough for the victory on 5/23 while his team battered yet another low-A starter.  Line: 5IP 7H 1R 1ER 2BB 3K while his teammates scored 10 on the night.  Only one run but an awful lot of base-runners through 5 innings.
• Erik Davis nearly went 5 innings on 5/24, settling for 4 2/3: 4⅔ 3H 3R 2ER 4BB 4K.  He was rather wild, but its his first start in a while, so we’ll see how he goes from here.
• Josh Smoker was sitting 94, touching 96 on 5/24 per Sue Dinem in the comments of his post-game analysis.
• Oliver Perez‘s 2nd start in AA was suspended on 5/26; he only pitched one official inning, giving up a solo homer.
• As with Perez, Robbie Ray‘s night got cut short on 5/26 when thunderstorms caused delays.  Abbreviated line: 2IP 0H 0R 1BB 1K

Relievers of Note and other Thoughts

• Collin Balester‘s nice 3-inning stint on 5/22 helped his season numbers look a bit better, and may put him back in line to get some MLB work if the need arises.
• There’s some good and bad news in the Josh Smoker to the bullpen experiment.  He’d not giving up many runs (only 2 earned runs in 16 innings for a 1.08 era as of 5/22) but he’s walking WAY too many guys (11 walks in 16 innings).  He has a 1.26 whip for the season, which isn’t that bad, but the walks need to get cut down for him to be trusted in later-innings situations.
• With two more Ks in a scoreless 8th on Sunday, Christopher Manno still has not allowed an earned run through 19+ innings on the season.  Through 5/22’s games he has 29ks to 4BBs in those 19+ innings, fantastic k/9 and k/bb ratios.  It is time for him to be promoted.
• Ryan Tatusko‘s transition to the bullpen has not been smooth; he got hammered on 5/23, giving up 3 runs on 4 hits in 1 2/3s innings.  He had such good 2010 numbers; what is happening with him?  He had 5/26’s nice spot start; lets hope this gets him back on track.
• Not pitching related, but here’s Rick Ankiel‘s batting line in his 5/23 rehab start for AA: 4Abs, 4Ks.  That’s a bit embarrassing.
• Matt Chico‘s career seems to be hanging on by a thread: here’s his 5/24 line: 1 1/3ip, 3 hits, 3 runs 2 walks.  He’s got a 9+ era and a 2.28 whip after being demoted to AA.
• Erik Arneson doesn’t seem to be on the radar for regaining his rotation spot, but 3 inning scoreless stints like he had on 5/24 have given him a pretty decent line on the season.  As of 5/25, he’s got a 0.93 whip and an ERA near 2.00.
• What’s happened to Dean Weaver?  He was a relatively high draft pick (7th round of 2009) and closed for Hagerstown in 2010; but suddenly in a non-closer role in 2011 he’s struggling badly.  He’s getting lit up, sports a 9.00 era and has 3 strikeouts in 9 innings.  Was this another overdraft/mistake?  He was a U-Georgia teammate of Holder, whose drafting was widely panned at the time.  Maybe our Georgia-area cross-checker isnt’ the player evaluator we need.
• Despite still showing on Potomac’s roster as of 5/27, Masn’s Byron Kerr is reporting that Sammy Solis has reported to Hagerstown and will debut on Monday 5/30.  I’m surprised by both the timing and the level; Monday’s start would bump AJ Cole off normal rest, and I think Solis should be at Potomac, especially after pitching so well in the Arizona Fall League (a league dominated by high-A and AA players).  Hagerstown should not be a challenge for a polished, high draft pick college pitcher.
• Ryan Mattheus is continuing his success in AAA after moving up from AA.  Could he be be a mlb bullpen candidate, as he shows he’s completely back from surgery?

Trends

Top 3 pitchers deserving promotion: Manno, Peacock, Milone
Top 3 pitchers whose jobs are in jeopardy: Chico, Olbrychowski, Grace

Tom Milone keeps putting up sterling numbers in AAA. Photo: Tom Priddy/Four Seam images via milb.com

Here are the daily links from NationalsProspects, for reference below:

• Tuesday 5/17 game reviews (Stammen, Martis, Demny, Grace)
• Wednesday 5/18 game reviews (Maya, Harrisburg rained out, Bronson, Applebee)
• Thursday 5/19 game reviews (Detwiler, OPerez, Rosenbaum, Cole)
• Friday 5/20 game reviews (Meyers, Harrisburg rain out, Clegg, Ray)
• Saturday 5/21 game reviews (Milone, Peacock, Holder, Hansen)

Good

• As much as I thought the Nats should have parted ways with Shairon Martis, you have to give him props for his 5/17 outing: 7IP 3H 0R 1BB 5K.
• Paul Applebee got the “suspended start” on 5/18, actually finishing the game that Grace really started the day before, and went 4⅓ 6H 1R 1ER 0BB 1K for the victory.  He scattered 6 hits effectively enough to get his 4th victory on the season.
• Oliver Perez dominated in his first Harrisburg start on 5/19: 5+ IP 1H 1R 0ER 2BB 3K.  As one would expect for a former 15-game MLB winner.
• Mitchell Clegg put in his second good outing in a row for Potomac on 5/20, putting in 7 effective innings for the win.  Line: 7IP 4H 1R 1ER 2BB 2K.
• The Robbie Ray show continues in Hagerstown, as he finally gave up a run but still threw 6 great innings on 5/20.  Line: 6IP 7H 2R 1ER 0BB 4K.  Selik got promoted after 5 great starts in a row; is it possible that the same could happen with Ray?
• Another fantastic outing for Tom Milone for Syracuse on 5/21: 7IP 3H 0R 0BB 9K.   This walk-less outing now gives Milone 44 Ks and THREE walks in 43 1/3 innings on the year.  In fact, if his one blow-up start was removed from his stats, he’d have a 2.26 ERA and a 0.85 whip.
• The Brad Peacock show continued in Harrisburg on 5/21: 6IP 1H 1R 1ER 2BB 10K 1HR.  One hit through six complete to go with 10ks.   Milb.com is now making Peacock’s starts required attendance, with this story showing up yesterday.  Peacock’s ridiculous numbers on the season?   66ks and 9 walks in 48 1/3 innings, a 0.83 whip and a 2.05 era.  These numbers dwarf what Meyers had before he earned his promotion.
• Bobby Hansen gave Hagerstown another quality start on 5/21, but his bullpen conspired to cost him a victory.  Line: 6IP 5H 2R 2ER 2BB 6K.

Bad

• Ross Detwiler was lit up in the first and left in for 5 yet was rewarded with a “win” for his work on 5/19.  Line: 5IP 5H 4R 4ER 4BB 3K.  What is going on with Detwiler?  He now has an ERA above 5.00 and a WHIP in the 1.66 range on the season and has more or less gotten hammered in 3 of his last 4 starts.  Is he hurt?
• In another example of why W/L records are meaningless as indicators of a pitcher’s value, Denny Rosenbaum got lit up in his 5/19 start: 5⅔ IP 7H 6R 6ER 4BB 4K.  Yet, because his team hit SIX homers on the day, he got a victory as Potomac out-slugged Frederick 14-6.
• See my last point: Trevor Holder had a meltdown start but still got the victory in Potomac on 5/21: 5⅓ IP 7H 5R 5ER 0BB 6K.

Mediocre/Inconclusive

• Craig Stammen had a ho-hum quality start on 5/17: 6IP 9H 3R 3ER 0BB 7K.  I guess i’m just expecting more out of a guy with 38 major league starts.
• Paul Demny had enough walks and baserunners to turn his quality start into a relatively mediocre outing for me.  Perhaps i’m a harsh judge.  Final line on 5/17: 6IP 5H 2R 2ER 3BB 4K.
• Matt Grace was struggling on 5/17 before his start got called after 3 innings.  His abbreviated line: 3IP 5H 2R 2ER 1BB 3K.
• Yunesky Maya was plagued by the “one big inning” syndrome that plagued him in September of last year, giving up 3 runs in the first and then shutting down Norfolk on 5/18.  Line: 6⅓ IP 4H 3R 3ER 1BB 2K 1HR.    After the first inning, Maya didn’t give up another hit, retired 13 straight, then got inexplicably yanked after giving up a one-out single in the 7th when he was sitting on just 71 pitches.  How do you judge such an outing?  5 no-hit and nearly perfect innings, and one inning with 4 hits and a 2-run homer.  Its officially “inconclusive.”
• Spot Starter Evan Bronson had a mediocre-teetering-on-bad outing on 5/18 in Potomac: 3⅔ IP 5H 2R 2ER 3BB 1K 1HR.  That’s 8 baserunners in less than 4 innings.  Amazingly he only gave up 2 runs despite all these baserunners.
• AJ Cole got touched up for 5 runs in 4 innings on 5/19, but showed flashes of dominance with 5Ks.  Final line: 4IP 6H 5R 2ER 0BB 5K.  He gave up 4 of the 5 runs in a messy 2nd inning where he threw a wild 3rd-strike pitch to allow on a punch-out victim, then gave up a 2-run double one play after an inning-ending error by his shortstop let in another run.   He did get a 1-2-3 4th inning, for what that’s worth.
• Brad Meyers didn’t have the worst possible outing on 5/20, but getting touched up for two homers is never a good thing.  Line: 5⅓ IP 7H 3R 3ER 0BB 3K 2HR.  The two homers were enough to give him a ND on the night.

Relievers of Note and other Thoughts

• A few pitcher moves were announced at the beginning of this cycle: Ryan Tatusko returned to Harrisburg, Ryan Mattheus rightfully earning a promotion from AA->AAA, and the enigmatic Oliver Perez reporting for duty in Harrisburg.  Tatusko clearly didn’t merit the promotion and seemed destined to return; most are calling the transaction a “paper promotion” to allow Harrisburg to do some roster maintenance w/o having to DL someone.  Meanwhile, Perez will slot right into the open rotation spot in AA and at age 30 will be nearly the oldest pitcher in the league.
• Who is making way in the Harrisburg rotation?  I thought Perez would be taking Roark‘s place but apparently not.  Tatusko’s spot was skipped but we havn’t seen him out of the bullpen yet …
• New Harrisburg closer Pat McCoy has had a string of sub-par outings lately, including a 4-run implosion to blow a game in which Martis had pitched pretty well.  This was apparently enough to put McCoy onto the DL.  Are we close to seeing Potomac’s Patrick Lehman moved up?  Perhaps not for a bit because….
• Potomac made a bunch more moves on 5/17-5/18, putting Cameron Selik and Lehman on the 7-day DL.  Replacing them was Rafael Martin and Hector Nelo.  Martin’s assignment is a bit curious; he was after all a AA all star in 2010 for Harrisburg and pitched pretty well there.  He’s 27 and is way too old for high-A ball; my guess is that he’s promoted up to replace McCoy as Harrisburg’s closer.  Nelo got dumped by Texas in April and we picked him up; he’s been stuck in A-ball within the Texas organization for 3 years.  He’s got good k/9 numbers but pretty bad ERAs over the past two seasons.  Lets see what he can do.  Meanwhile there’s no word on what Selik’s injury is; he’s had two sub-par outings thus far in high-A and the team needs a rotation spot (in theory) for Sammy Solis, so perhaps this is just administrative use of the DL for the next week or so.
• (copied this point from my MLB rotation review pending post): Brian Broderick‘s DFA was dated 5/14, and teams have 10 days to finalize that assignment.  We’ve heard no word on possible negotiations with St. Louis to keep Broderick up to this point, and odds are that no other team would claim him at this point (any claim would mean the claiming team would ALSO have to keep the Rule5 draftee on their active roster for the duration of the season).  I wonder if he’s about to be returned outright to St. Louis.
• Lastly, on 5/21 Christopher McKenzie and Chad Jenkins were “demoted” from Hagerstown to extended spring.  McKenzie struggled badly (though his final outing was good) in 6 starts, posting more walks than strikeouts.  Jenkins was similarly wild out of the pen.  I’m guessing both guys catch on with the Short-A squad for another shot at career redemption.  Both guys were middle round draft picks out of JuCo and earned some bonus money, but seemingly would be expendable if outperformed by the next draft class.

Trends

I have only included the starter trends for those that are actually in the rotations right now.  I honestly don’t know who the 5th starter is in Potomac right now; I’ve been assuming Solis will be activated from the DL to take the spot.  Perhaps it will be Bronson or Frias.  We’ll see; i think the spot comes up in two games.

AAA trends (in rotation order)
Maya        bad,soso,soso,good,great,good,soso,soso
Detwiler    good,good,soso,soso,bad,soso,bad,bad
Meyers    soso,good,soso
Milone    good,soso,soso,bad,great,good,great
Stammen    good,soso,great,bad,soso,good,soso

AA Trends:
Martis     bad,bad,soso,soso,good
OPerez    great
Peacock    soso,good,great,good,very good,bad,great,great
Roark        bad
Arneson    soso

High-A Trends:
Rosenbaum    soso,good,good,soso,good,good,soso,bad
Clegg        soso,soso,soso,unbelievably bad,soso,good,good
Holder    soso,bad,bad,soso,soso,soso,good,bad
Demny        good,bad,good,good,soso,soso

Low-A Trends:
Jordan    good,soso,good,good->dl,soso,soso
Grace        good,bad,bad,bad,good,soso,soso,soso
Cole        soso,soso
Ray        great,great,good
Hansen    soso,good,very bad,very good,soso,soso,good,good

Top 3 starters deserving promotion: Peacock, Milone, Ray
Top 3 starters whose jobs are in jeopardy: Detwiler, Holder, Grace.

Brad Peacock won his 2nd Pitcher of the Week award after his performance on 5/13. Photo: Jenny Kane/The Patriot News

Here are the daily links from NationalsProspects, for reference below.  I’m going to put in starter names per day review to help keep track.

• Thursday 5/12 game reviews (Maya, Tatusko, Potomac off, Grace )
• Friday 5/13 game reviews (Detwiler, Peacock, Selik, Cole)
• Saturday 5/14 game reviews (Meyers, Harrisburg rained out, Rosenbaum, Ray )
• Sunday 5/15 game reviews (Syracuse rain out, Roark, Clegg, Hansen)
• Monday 5/16 game reviews (Syracuse rained out DH, Harrisburg off, Holder, Jordan)

Good

• All we can say about Brad Peacock‘s 5/13 outing is, “wow.”  7IP 5H 1R 1ER 1BB 14K.  14 Strikeouts in 7 innings and he was at 106 pitches when pulled.  His performance earned a writeup at milb.com, earned him a second pitcher of the week award in a month, and gives him a gaudy 56ks (versus only 7 walks) in 42 innings on the year.  He’s proving again and again to be a massive steal of a 41st round draft pick and will be pushing for a promotion soon.
• Brad Meyers picked up right where he left off from his AA days on 5/14, going for 7IP 4H 0R 0BB 8K.  After a mediocre first start, this was one of the cleaner outings the AAA staff has seen this year.  Meyers wasn’t the story of the day though: his first baseman Michael Aubrey hit FOUR homers in the game.
• Is it too early to call for Robbie Ray‘s promotion?  In his 2nd pro start on 5/14 he was as dominant as in the first: 6IP 2H 0R 1BB 7K.  I don’t call too many starts “great” but Ray’s got two of them in a row.  So far, he’s looking like a fantastic piece of drafting and signing by Mike Rizzo (he was a 12th rounder HS kid who was signed away from his college commitment to U of Arkansas for $799k last summer).  Update: Ray was also named pitcher of the week for his start.
• Mitchell Clegg had a redeeming start in Potomac on 5/15: 5⅓ IP 5H 1R 1ER 1BB 2K.  Not dominant, but pretty clean.  Its arguably his best start of the season.  Good for him, because it comes at a time when Potomac is looking for someone to replace in the rotation for Solis.
• Bobby Hansen had a nice outing on 5/15 in Hagerstown: 7IP 4H 2R 1ER 1BB 5K.  He’s now 5-1 on the season with decent anciliary numbers considering he’s yet to turn 22.
• Despite taking the loss, i’ll give Trevor Holder a “good” for his 5/16 outing in Potomac: 8IP 6H 3R 3ER 0BB 5K.   Through 7 innings, he had completely shut down Fredrick to the tune of 2hits and a hit batsman on 73 pitches.  He shouldn’t have tired in the 8th, and perhaps a reliever could have stemmed the flow of the inning, but not being there its hard to make that judgement.

Bad

• Not a good outing for Ross Detwiler on 5/13: 6⅔ 11H 4R 4ER 1BB 3K 2HR.  His season era now stands at 4.76 and he’s not getting nearly the K/9 rates that one would expect out of a guy who was threatening for a MLB rotation spot.  He’s the worst of the 5 starters in AAA right now at a time that Brian Peacock is pushing for a promotion.
• Cameron Selik isn’t experiencing the success at high-A that he did in low-A thus far, getting hammered on 5/13 for Potomac.  Line: 4⅓ IP 10H 9R 8ER 1BB 4K.  Well, at least he had 4 Ks.
• Tanner Roark‘s return to AA on 5/15 wasn’t pretty: 3⅓ IP 10H 5R 5ER 2BB 3K.  Lets hope he’s just rusty from whatever ailment kept him in extended spring training.

Mediocre/Inconclusive

• Yunesky Maya put in a so-so start 5/12: 7⅓ IP 7H 4R 3ER 1BB 3K 1HR.  A solo-homer, then a leaked run after a lead-off double in the 6th and another leadoff double led to his runs allowed.  Maya’s lesson: don’t give up leadoff doubles, since the likelihood of them scoring is something like 85%.
• Weird night for Ryan Tatusko on 5/12: he only gave up one earned run but couldn’t “get out” of the 5th inning.  Line: 4⅔ IP 6H 2R 1ER 2BB 3K.  6 hits, a couple wild pitches and 2 walks conspired for his early hook.
• Contrary to my previous post, Matt Grace has NOT yet lost his rotation spot and went for Hagerstown on 5/12.  Result: mediocre at best.  4⅓ IP 7H 4R 3ER 2BB 3K.
• AJ Cole‘s second professional start on 5/13 ended before we could really pass much judgement.  4IP 2H 1R 1ER 2BB 4K.   The one run he conceded was a lead-off walk (lead off walks kill), but otherwise he was solid.  He was lifted before the 5th, oddly.  Was he at a pitch count limit?
• Denny Rosenbaum had a soso night on 5/14: 7IP 10H 4R 3ER 3BB 5K.  Per Sue Dinem’s take, he worked his way out of jams well, and consistently got the leadoff hitter to mitigate the effects of 13 baserunners in 7 innings.
• Taylor Jordan kept his team in the game on 5/16, going 6IP 7H 3R 3ER 2BB 5K.

Relievers of Note and other Thoughts

• The big news of this cycle was going to be the assignment of Sammy Solis to Potomac on 5/11.  But then they immediately stuck him on the 7-day DL.  I’m sure there’s a reason for this procedurally but it doesn’t make much sense (perhaps they want him to start traveling with the team?  Working with Potomac’s excellent pitching coach Paul Menhart?)
• Perhaps 2nd biggest news item; the promotion of Cole Kimball, one day after I called for the move in this space.  No word yet on the corresponding move but perhaps we’ll see a wholesale shifting upwards of our closers (Mattheus, Lehman, and Manno), all of whom are excelling at their various levels so far this season.
• A slew of moves on 5/15 resulted in Erik Davis going to the DL (he limped out of his previous start), Tanner Roark replacing Davis in the AA rotation, and (curiously) Ryan Tatusko getting promoted to AAA to replace Kimball.  Roark more or less dominated AA last year; i’m hoping that this move is a temporary one before he moves up to the AAA rotation where he belongs (though his 5/15 outing didn’t help his cause).  Meanwhile, i’m guessing Davis’ DL stint is just for a few days (can you make 7-day DL moves retroactive to the day they got hurt?) since AA still needs a 5th starter.  Finally Tatusko’s promotion certainly wasn’t earned; he has an ugly 5.73 ERA and an even uglier 1.94 whip and i’m guessing is more a function of his age (he is too old for AA).  It also may be indicative of his end as a starting pitcher in the system and he’ll be tested as a reliever in AAA.
• Is Hagerstown going to a 6-man rotation for the time being?  I would have thought Grace would be the natural guy to make way for the Jordan return plus the Cole/Ray promotions, but he threw on 5/11.  McKenzie‘s spot was skipped in the rotation this cycle, so perhaps that is the answer.
• It may be a few days before we figure out who makes way for Solis in the Potomac rotation.  My previous guess was either Holder or Clegg.  I’d lean towards Clegg since Holder got so much draft bonus money.  Perhaps a topic for the next version of this post.
• Collin Balester‘s 5/13 outing didn’t speak well of his season: 4 batters faced, 4 unretired to put Syracuse’s game completely out of reach.  For someone whose promotion I was advocating, this outing didn’t help his chances.
• Hagerstown reliever Matt Syndenberg had a nice relief outing on 5/16, going 3 shutout innings to help extend the game into extra innings.   His numbers on the season aren’t great though, and this reformed starter probably needs to step it up.

Trends

AAA trends (in rotation order)
Maya        bad,soso,soso,good,great,good,soso
Detwiler    good,good,soso,soso,bad,soso,bad
Meyers    soso,good
Milone    good,soso,soso,bad,great,good
Stammen    good,soso,great,bad,soso,good

AA Trends:
Martis     bad,bad,soso,soso
Roark        bad
Peacock    soso,good,great,good,very good,bad,great
Arneson    soso

Rosenbaum    soso,good,good,soso,good,good,soso
Clegg        soso,soso,soso,unbelievably bad,soso,good
Holder    soso,bad,bad,soso,soso,soso,good
Demny        good,bad,good,good,soso,soso
Selik        soso,bad

Low-A Trends:
Jordan    good,soso,good,good->dl,soso,soso
Grace        good,bad,bad,bad,good,soso,soso
Cole        soso,soso
Ray        great,great
Hansen    soso,good,very bad,very good,soso,soso,good

Top 3 starters deserving promotion: Peacock, Milone, Jordan
Top 3 starters whose jobs are in jeopardy: Martis, Grace, Detwiler

AJ Cole may have been the "name" 2010 draftee debut, but Robbie Ray stole the show. Photo: Natsnewsnetwork.blogspot.com

Lots of interesting news for the minor league rotations this time around.  The big news, (and I was as surprised by this news as Sue Dinem over at NationalsProspects.com) was the sudden promotion of both A.J. Cole and Robbie Ray to Hagerstown.  Cole’s promotion makes him the 3rd youngest pitcher in the Sally League (and Ray the 6th youngest) and is a fantastic indicator of the progress these guys have apparently made.  I thought at best they’d play in extended spring until the short seasons start, and then (maybe) play in short-A ball.

Here are the daily links from NationalsProspects, for reference below:

• Saturday 5/7 game reviews (Potomac DH, Selik Potomac Debut, Cole Hagerstown debut)
• Sunday 5/8 game reviews
• Monday 5/9 game reviews (Meyers Syracuse debut, Robbie Ray Hagerstown Debut)
• Tuesday 5/10 game reviews
• Wednesday 5/11 game reviews

Good

• We’ll give Yunesky Maya a “good” for his 5/7 outing: 6⅔ IP 5H 2R 2ER 1BB 7K.  A “real” quality start with a K/inning, only one walk and a WHIP on the day < 1.0.    The third consecutive effective outing for Maya, coupled with a loss of form out of Detwiler, may be putting Maya into the pole position for “first Chief called up” if needed.
• Potomac Ace Denny Rosenbaum put in a great 5/8 outing to salvage one win out of a four-game set against Kinston.  His outing: 7IP 6H 1R 1ER 1BB 7K.  Unfortunately he got a no-decision for his efforts.
• How about Robbie Ray‘s 5/9 Hagerstown Debut?  No-hitter through 4, just one hit (and two batters above the minimum) through 5 complete innings.  Per Kilgore, not only did he not walk a guy, he never went 3balls on anyone either.  59 pitches, 46 strikes.  Line: 5IP 1H 0R 0BB 6K.  Yeah, that’s fantastic, especially for such a young starter.  WP Beat reporter Adam Kilgore wrote up Ray’s debut here.
• Tom Milone had another excellent start in Syracuse on 5/10: 7⅔ IP 5H 3R 3ER 0BB 7K 1HR.  He was perfect through 3 and gave up just one hit through 6.  Oddly, after giving up a few sharp hits in the 7th he was brought back for the 8th, where he gave up a homer and a double before being taken out.  Perhaps the AAA manager was trying to stretch him out a bit, or get him to work through some adversity.
• Craig Stammen helped the Chiefs win their 3rd straight on 5/11 with this line: 7⅓ IP 5H 2R 2ER 0BB 6K 1HR.

Bad

• As Sue Dinem chronicled, Ryan Tatusko “labored” in his latest Harrisburg start on 5/7, giving up 9 hits (including 2 long balls) in just 3 innings pitched.
• Brad Peacock was cruising along in his 5/8 start, having retired 12 of the first 14 batters he faced before just falling apart in the 5th inning.  A walk and then 5 straight hits knocked him out of the game, giving him his worst start of the year.  Final line: 4⅓ IP 6H 5R 5ER 2BB 6K.
• Chris McKenzie got hammered again in Hagerstown on 5/8: 2IP 7H 7R 7ER 2BB 3K.  He probably loses his spot when Taylor Jordan comes off the 7-day DL.

Mediocre/Inconclusive

• Cameron Selik‘s Potomac debut on 5/7 went ok; 6IP 4H 3R 2ER 4BB 3K 2HR.  He must have been amped up for his appearance; 8 of his 10 outs were recorded by fly balls, indicating that his ball was up.  He also issued 4 walks.  Its hard to kill a guy on his debut after a well earned promotion, especially if his only two earned runs were both on homers.
• Spot Starter (presumably) Evan Bronson was the unlucky loser on 5/7, giving up just 1 earned run in 4 2/3 but taking the loss in the bottom half of the double-header.  Line: 4⅔ IP 5H 1R 1ER 2BB 0K.   We’ll have to see if Bronson takes Mitchell Clegg‘s rotation spot after a couple of serviceable outings.
• A.J. Cole‘s debut start in Hagerstown on 5/7 went ok.  His line: 3⅔ IP 5H 2R 2ER 2BB 3K 1HR.  He seemed to scatter the hits and walks well, and may have gotten a rather quick hook in the 4th (he had two outs and had just given up a single, it wasn’t as if he was getting clocked that inning).  He’s got plenty more starts to show us what he has.
• Another mediocre start from supposed ready-for-the-majors starter Ross Detwiler in Syracuse on 5/8.  6IP 6H 4R 4ER 3BB 6K.  He needs to do better; he should be dominating these weaker AAA hitters, not getting bounced around.
• Brad Meyers gets a mediocre for his first AAA start on 5/9; 5IP 5H 4R 4ER 1BB 5K.  He gave up two quick hits and a run to open the game, then retired 10 straight before leaking a 2nd run in the 4th.  In the 5th a leadoff walk came back to burn him, scoring on an infield grounder before a triple scored the 4th and last run he surrendered.  All in all, his ERA will look bad (7.20 on the night) but he only gave up 6 baserunners in 5 innings.
• Erik Arneson had a decent first AA start on 5/9, going for 5⅓ IP 5H 2R 2ER 1BB 6K.  I’m putting it mediocre on account that Arneson is 27 and should be in AAA, not putting up quality starts in AA.
• Michell Clegg‘s 5/9 start was certainly better than his last: 5IP 6H 2R 2ER 1BB 3K.  He’s still  yet to really put in a dominating start in Potomac.
• I can’t quite give Shairon Martis a “good” outing for his quality start on 5/10: 6IP 6H 2R 2ER 1BB 3K 1HR.  Perhaps its because i’m holding him to a higher standard, perhaps its because he’s not really dominating AA hitters like he should.  To me, a guy that pitched a half a season in a big-league rotation should be shutting out AA hitting.
• On the fact of it, Trevor Holder‘s 5/10 line in Potomac was pretty bad: 6⅓ IP 8H 5R 4ER 0BB 2K.  However, reading the game log you get a different story.  After giving up 2 runs in a rough 2nd inning, Holder pitched 4 relatively clean innings.  He fell apart int he 7th though, giving up 4 straight hits and 3 runs.  Still, not enough Ks for me.  Holder has yet to put in a “good” line this season and it should be just a matter of time before Frias or Bronson replaces him in the Potomac rotation.
• Bobby Hansen had a ho-hum quality start on 5/10: 6IP 7H 3R 2ER 3BB 4K.  Too many base-runners for me, despite his getting the win.
• Erik Davis‘s 5/11 start was cut short after 2 innings with a knee injury.
• Taylor Jordan‘s return from the DL in Hagerstown on 5/11 was ok: 6IP 7H 5R 2ER 0BB 0K.  I like the 6ip with no walks, but did not like his 3rd inning; he gave up 6 straight hits to give up 5 runs, though only 2 were earned because of a couple errors thrown in.  All in all, a good return back for Hagerstown’s new “Ace.”
• Paul Demny‘s 5/11 start in Potomac was just on this side of bad: 6ip 4hits, 4runs, 2 walks and 6ks.  He gave up two bombs but still hung on to get the victory.

Relievers of Note and other Thoughts

• MASN’s Byron Kerr featured Potomac’s GWU graduate Pat Lehman in this piece.  He’s definitely pitching lights out as the P-Nats closer, having only given up one run in 11 innings so far this year.
• Jimmy Barthaimer let Saturday’s 5/7 Harrisburg game get completely out of control, giving up 5 earned runs in just an inning.  It sounds as if some shaky defense and a missed call caused him to lose his focus.  It happens (especially in the minors, where neither umpires or your defense is as good as you need it to be on the mound), but you have to work around it.  To make matters worse, he followed this performance up on 5/11 by giving up 5 runs in 3 relief innings (albeit with 5 Ks).
• Matt Chico‘s attempts to convert to being a reliever continue to go badly, getting shelled on 5/11 to the tune of 2IP 5H 5R 4ER 0BB 1K 1HR.
• Selik seems to have taken Marcos Frias’ rotation spot for the time being, though the rain-out/double headers in Potomac make it somewhat difficult to tell for sure.  Someone definitely has to make way though; I can’t see the team going to a 6 man rotation.
• Jeff Mandel continues to look sharp in the Syracuse pen, holding a 0.57 whip through 7 innings.
• Cole Kimball looks nearly as good in the Syracuse pen, having yet to give up a run through 11 2/3 innings and the first week of march in the closer role.  He’s got a bit too many walks but lots of Ks and not a lot of hits.
• There must have been something in the water in Harrisburg on Sunday; after Peacock fell apart both Matt Chico and Carlos Martinez both got hammered as well, contributing to a 15-6 loss.
• Josh Smoker may be finally putting it together in Potomac; he has 1 ER in 11 2/3 innings through 5/8.  A bit too many walks, but he’s also getting lots of Ks.  He worked out of a jam quite nicely on 5/10.
• Christopher Manno keeps on cruising; 2 scoreless innings and another 2Ks on 5/8 give him a fairly ridiculous line on the season right now.  22ks versus 2bbs in 14 1/3 innings as of 5/8.  There are guys in the Potomac bullpen holding on by a thread (Wort and Olbrychowski in particular) that could make way, soon.
• Ryan Mattheus, a AA reclamation project at this point in his career, is pitching pretty well post-surgery.  One run allowed in 12 innings on the season so far.  He’s a former 40-man member and is probably a bit too experienced for AA, but it is a good sign that he’s pitching well.
• Matt Grace seems to have lost his rotation spot with Jordan’s return from the DL and the promotions of Cole and Ray.

Trends

AAA trends (in rotation order)
Maya        bad,soso,soso,good,great,good
Detwiler    good,good,soso,soso,bad,soso
Meyers    soso
Milone    good,soso,soso,bad,great,good
Stammen    good,soso,great,bad,soso,good

AA Trends:
Martis     bad,bad,soso,soso
EDavis    good,soso,good,bad,soso,incomplete (knee injury)
Tatusko    soso,bad,bad,soso,good,bad
Peacock    soso,good,great,good,very good,bad
Arneson    soso

High-A Trends:
Rosenbaum    soso,good,good,soso,good,good
Clegg        soso,soso,soso,unbelievably bad,soso
Holder    soso,bad,bad,soso,soso,soso
Demny        good,bad,good,good,soso
Selik        soso

Low-A Trends:
Jordan    good,soso,good,good->dl,soso
Cole        soso
McKenzie    good,bad,bad,bad,good
Ray        great
Hansen    soso,good,very bad,very good,soso,soso

Top 5 deserving promotion: Manno, Rosenbaum, Lehman, Kimball, Mattheus
Top 5 whose jobs are in jeopardy: McKenzie, Wort, Olbrychowski, Barthmaier, Tatusko

Despite being in our system for years, Ross Detwiler is still “really young” for AAA. Photo: Haraz Ghanbari/AP via federalbaseball.com

Following up on a previous post discussing the “age appropriateness” of pitchers in the minor leagues, I thought it would be interesting to look at the pitching staffs at the Nationals various affiliates and take a look at the ages.  NOTE: I did most of this analysis prior to the promotions of AJ Cole and Robbie Ray to Hagerstown.  I’ll put in notes about them in the appropriate section.

To review, based on dividing the ages of every pitcher in each league into quartiles, and then naming the quartiles, here’s our starting point:

Here’s an affiliate-by-affiliate look at the pitching staffs, their ages and how that age is “ranked.”  Syracuse first:

Not surprisingly, several names (Martin, Mock) are included as being “old” for the level.  Maya is a special case of course.  Ironically, a lot of these players are young or really young for the level.  Of note would be Tommy Milone, who is the 23rd youngest pitcher in the International league (out of 193 pitchers) and is holding his own in the rotation.  Ironically, Ross Detwiler “seems” to be much older than he really is, since his name has been in the minds of Nats fans for years, but he’s still quite young even for AAA.  Brad Meyers recent promotion counts him in the younger category as well, a good sign for our continued player development.

Trivia: The youngest pitcher in the International League was (at the time of this analysis) Julio Teheran, uber-Braves prospect who turned 20 in April and is seemingly ready for his MLB debut.  The rich get richer.  In fact, he did get promoted and made a start on Saturday 5/7 for Atlanta.  Meanwhile the oldest pitcher in the International league is Mark Hendrickson, who last appeared in a minor league game in 2003.  He didn’t make the Orioles’ roster out of spring and is trying to hang on.

Here’s Harrisburg:

What is concerning here is the number of “Really Old” pitchers we have on the staff in Harrisburg.  Luckily they’re all relievers, not considered key prospects going forward.  The best starter in AA (Brad Peacock) is quite young for the level (22nd youngest of 166 hurlers in the league).  Other starters in Harrisburg are on the “right side” of the median, including Davis and Martis.  Tatusko is getting too old for the level (hence my prediction that he’d be promoted prior to the season), and probable rotation replacement member Arneson is definitely too old for the level to be considered a prospect.

Interesting trivia; the oldest pitcher in the Eastern league is one Kei Igawa, who also holds the distinction of being (in my opinion) the worst FA starting pitcher ever signed based on dollars per win for the life of his contract plus posting fee.  Meanwhile the youngest AA pitcher is Detroit Tiger’s 2009 1st round pick Jacob Turner, who is holding his own after getting drafted out of high school.

Here’s Potomac:

By virtue of the number of college pitchers we’ve drafted in the past couple of  years, we have a stockpile of these guys who now make our Potomac roster seem relatively old.  Our ace in Potomac Danny Rosenbaum is almost exactly the median age of pitchers in his league (he’s listed as “old” but missed the cutoff by a few days).  Same with newly promoted Cameron Selik, who now pitches in a league where he’s almost exactly the average age.  Potomac’s 2nd most effective starter this season has been Paul Demny, who is the 15th youngest pitcher of a 112 in the league.  Its great to see such a youngster pitching so effectively.  Meanwhile Mitchell Clegg and Trevor Holder are relatively old for the level already and are struggling this year, a sign they may be moved to the bullpen or be defined as “non-prospects” sooner or later.

Lastly, here’s Hagerstown pre Cole and Ray:

All things considered, we’re fielding a relatively young-for-the-level pitching staff in Hagerstown.  The two youngest starters (Bobby Hansen and Chris McKenzie) are right at the 25th percentile cusp (so they’re still young for the league but not amazingly so).  That being said, Hansen is probably Hagerstown’s 2nd most effective starter after Taylor Jordan, and they’re both young for the league.  Even the two oldest starters in Hagerstown (Matt Grace and Paul Applebee) are both right around the median age for pitchers in the league.  Selik was very old for the league before earning his promotion, possibly a sign that his age allowed him to dominate younger guys.  Only the bullpen guys are “old” or “really old” for the league, and even they are not “overly” old.

AJ Cole and Robbie Ray, named to the team over the weekend, become the 3rd and 6th youngest pitchers in the league.  This is all the more interesting considering Ray’s sterling 5/9 debut.

Summary

The younger guys we have in Syracause are for the most part the prospects; the older guys are mostly organizational arms not likely to feature in the majors.  We are definitely “old” in both Harrisburg and Potomac, all the more concerning since both staffs are struggling.  I like how young we are in Hagerstown, considering just how well that team is playing (19-10, 1/2 game out of first having played a ton of away games so far).

All Tom Milone has done since getting drafted, is win. Photo: Tom Priddy/Four Seam Images/milb.com

Here are the daily links from NationalsProspects, for reference below:

• Monday 5/2 game reviews
• Tuesday 5/3 game reviews (Syracuse ppd)
• Wednesday 5/4 game reviews (Syracuse and Hagerstown off)
• Thursday 5/5 game reviews
• Friday 5/6 game reviews (Potomac rained out, again)

Good

• JD Martin rebounded on 5/2 from his previous crummy starts, throwing 5 1/3 innings, giving up 5 hits and a walk but conceding no earned runs.  He didn’t exactly dominate Rochester (1K) but Martin isn’t exactly a swing-and-miss pitcher.
• Ryan Tatusko threw a dominant start on 5/2: 6⅔ IP 2H 0R 3BB 9K.  A bit wild, but 9Ks over 6+ innings is a good sign.
• Potomac Ace Danny Rosenbaum put in a decent performance on 5/2; 7IP 3H 0R 3BB 4K.  He wiggled out of a bases-loaded jam in the third and then retired 10 straight to close out 7 complete.
• Chris McKenzie pulled himself out of the coach’s doghouse with his 7IP 4H 0R 1BB 2K performance on 5/2.  I’d like to see more swing-and-miss out of him, but 7 scoreless is good enough in my book.
• Brad Peacock had another ho-hum great outing on 5/3:  7IP 2H 0R 1BB 8K.   His season numbers are almost comically good right now.   1.16 era, 0.76 whip.  36/4 k/bb ratio in 31 innings.  One has to think he’s the next to move up to AAA.  His performance earned a mention on Baseball America’s hotsheet (h/t to Steven Biel at FJB for the link)
• Brad Meyers, as with Peacock, put in another solid outing on 5/4: 7IP 8H 2R 2ER 0BB 7K.  It wasn’t quite as dominant as in the past, but it was good enough to earn him a promotion (see notes below).
• Tom Milone had a fantastic rebound start on 5/5 for Syracuse: 7IP 4H 1R 1ER 1BB 11K.  Eleven strikeouts in 7 innings for the young left-hander.

Bad

• Mitchell Clegg‘s outing is only in the “bad” section because there isn’t an “unbelievably bad” section.  Here’s his line from his 5/3 start in Potomac: 3⅔ IP 13H 11R 7ER 1BB 1K 1HR.  Thirteen hits in 3 2/3’s inning; that’s like a line from one of my adult baseball leagues.

Mediocre/Inconclusive

• We’ll give Taylor Jordan and incomplete for his 5/3 outing, shortened when he took a line-drive off his non-pitching elbow.  Line upon exit: 2⅓ IP 3H 1R 1ER 0BB 0K.  He ended up going on the DL as a precaution, allowing the team to add 2010 draft pick Neil Holland for his first appearance in full season A ball.
• Trevor Holder may be holding onto his starter’s job a bit longer, after putting in a serviceable 5/4 start in Potomac.  Line: 5+ IP 5H 2R 2ER 0BB 3K.  He was ejected in the top of the 6th for arguing a safe/out call at first.  His performance was probably closer to good than bad; the hits were well scattered, the 2nd earned run was charged to him when his replacement (Dean Weaver) walked, hit a guy and then walked a run home in a situation that had to drive the starter crazy.
• Shairon Martis was able to improve on his bad form, but still put in a relatively mediocre AA start on 5/5.  Line: 5IP 7H 3R 2ER 3BB 5K 1HR.  That’s 10 baserunners in 5 innings for a former major league starter.  He doesn’t seem to be in immediate jeopardy of losing his rotation spot, but it could come soon.
• Paul Demny got no offensive support and took the loss despite his quality start for Potomac on 5/5.  Line: 6IP 4H 2R 2ER 4BB 3K.  The walks knocked this to the “so-so” category.
• Bobby Hansen put a lot of baserunners on, but his hitters bashed their way to a Win for him for Hagerstown on 5/5.  Line: 5IP 8H 2R 2ER 1BB 3K.
• Craig Stammen gave up quite a few hits on 5/6, and it ended up costing him.  9 hits through 6 innings, but what did him in was the two hits he gave up to open the 7th, which were subsequently inherited and scored on his reliever’s watch.  So in the end, not the worst outing of his career but bad enough to tag him with a loss.
• Erik Davis started out his outing dominantly (facing the minimum through four), but leaked a couple runs in the 5th before giving up another 3 (though they ended up being unearned) in the 6th.  Final line: 5⅔ IP 4H 5R 2ER 3BB 3K.
• Matt Grace had a quality start on 5/6, but too many walks pushed his performance into the mediocre.  Line; 6⅓ IP 6H 2R 1ER 3BB 3K.

Relievers of Note and other Thoughts

• Per a flurry of Potomac roster moves on 5/4, Cameron Selik got a well deserved promotion to Potomac.   Whose rotation spot does he take?  My guess is Holder‘s, since it seems to match up with Selik’s normal rest.  That and Holder was probably the worst of the existing Potomac starters, Clegg’s awful night notwithstanding.
• Continuing the promotions news, on 5/5 Brad Meyers earned a long-deserved promotion to AAA.  I’m guessing that JD Martin makes way in the Syracuse rotation, though the corresponding move seems to have been to demote Matt Chico to Harrisburg.
• Chico’s demotion may be a death knell for his career; after falling off the 40-man and being removed from the rotation, he’s put in a mediocre 5+ ERA so far as a middle reliever and now a 27 (soon to be 28) yr old in AA.  That’s not good.
• Dean Weaver pops up as well, having been reinstated (and promoted from last season’s final destination) in Potomac from the opening day DL/extended spring training.
• Ryan Mattheus, somewhat of a forgotten man in Harrisburg, got a 1 1/3 inning save where he struck out all four guys for outs on 5/2.
• Paul Applebee filled ably on very short notice, taking the mound after his starter got knocked from the game and gave Hagerstown enough quality long relief to preserve the win.  His 5/3 line: 3⅔ 2H 1R 1ER 0BB 0K 1HR.  He still has an ugly 6.16 era on the season.  Perhaps its his mustache; its reminiscent of the rookie on the state police force who is trying to grow something to fit in.
• Kyle Morrison was released from Potomac earlier this month.  Not that he was a massive part of the future, but it seems to me that if we’re basing these release decisions on some combination of age/performance, how does Morrison go with a 9k/9 ratio while his cohort Adam Olbrychowski has conspired to walk as many guys (10) as he’s struck out and is a year older?
• Tough outing for Cole Kimball on 5/6, needing 50-some pitches to get through 2 innings and allowing both his inherited runners to score, costing his team the game.

Trends

AAA trends:
Maya        bad,soso,soso,good,great,good
Detwiler    good,good,soso,soso,bad,soso
Milone    good,soso,soso,bad,great
Stammen    good,soso,great,bad,soso
Meyers
(Arneson    soso)
(Mock        good,bad,really bad->DL)
(Martin     bad,bad,good->demoted for Meyers)

AA Trends:
Martis     bad,bad,soso
EDavis    good,soso,good,bad,soso
Tatusko    soso,bad,bad,soso,good,bad
Peacock    soso,good,great,good,very good,bad
Arneson
(Barthmaier    bad)
(Atilano    soso,bad->DL)
(Meyers    good,bad,good,great,good,good->promoted)

High-A Trends:
Rosenbaum    soso,good,good,soso,good,good
Holder    soso,bad,bad,soso,soso
Frias        good,good,bad,soso
Demny        good,bad,good,good,soso
Clegg        soso,soso,soso,unbelievably bad,
Selik        soso
(Bronson    good,soso)
(Caldera bad,bad->released)

Low-A Trends:
Grace        good,bad,bad,bad,good,soso
Cole        soso
McKenzie    good,bad,bad,bad,good
Ray
Hansen    soso,good,very bad,very good,soso
(Applebee    bad,soso,bad)
(Selik    good,good,good,great,good->promoted)
(Jordan    good,soso,good,good->dl)

Top 3 deserving promotion: Peacock, Lehman and Manno
Top 3 whose jobs are in jeopardy: Clegg, McKenzie, Holder