Nationals Arm Race

Peacock goes from 41st round flier to MLB pitcher. Photo via bleacherreport.com

Those of us who meticulously follow the Nats farmhands and pitching prospects were given multiple treats in the wake of Stephen Strasburg‘s triumphant return on 9/6 (box/gamer).  We also got to see the MLB debut of a very intriguing name in the future of this rotation, Brad Peacock.

(We also got to finally see Atahualpa Severino, but not until after a rain delay blew out my 3-hour DVR recording.  Apparently he blew away the one hitter he faced with 96mph heat.  I wonder why we slogged along with Doug Slaten for so long if we had a 96mph fireballer available in the minors all season?)

Peacock has been visible to those of us who havn’t traveled to either Harrisburg or Syracuse lately, appearing in the Futures game during the 2011 all-star break.  On 9/6 Peacock came into the game in relief despite being a starter all year, and inherited 2 runners from lefty Doug Slaten (who I thought was closer to being released than ever appearing in a game for this team again).  He features (according to a pre-game interview) a 4-seamer (95mph normally), a 2-seamer, a knuckle-curve and a change.

Peacock “only” throws 95 (click here for Pitch F/X data on the night) but its a sneaky fast 95, getting up on hitters by virtue of some slight tweaks he made to his mechanics this year to do a better job of hiding the ball before hitting his release point.  He did a good job keeping his fastball low and definitely had a couple of borderline pitches called balls (at one point showing a bit of exasperation on the mound …).  He definitely depends on the four-seamer predominantly; 15 of his 23 pitches were a 4-seam fastball.  He says he throws a 2-seamer but we didn’t see it.  We only saw a few change-ups as well (six per Pitch f/x), but one of them was a 3-2 change-up to Ethier with the bases loaded that took some guts to throw.  His 4-seamer definitely has action and movement, but I’m beginning to see why scouting pundits (Keith Law) keep saying that Peacock seems destined for the bullpen.  I’d like to have seen the 2-seamer, or more of the curve-balls (he only threw three on the night, but all 3 were for strikes).

His motion and mechanics are “effort-ful.”  He definitely puts a lot into each pitch and he doesn’t have the easy arm action of other pitchers in our arsenal.  Not a total red-flag, but I wonder if he’s a shoulder injury waiting to happen (ala Cole Kimball).

He got a grounder from Matt Kemp (his first MLB hitter) on his curve-ball that Desmond could have (should have?) had, then got touched up for a few hits.  On the night; he pitched 1 1/3, gave up 4 hits and was charged with a run.  He allowed both of Slaten’s runners to score.  He most likely would have gone longer had the skies not opened up.  A couple of the guys he faced really hit the ball on the button and he didn’t have a swinging strike all night (not a good sign).

It’d be nice to see how he fares when he gets a longer outing to see if this was just nerves, an umpire squeezing him or something else.  Perhaps he’ll take some starts from here to the end of the season (we’ll definitely need at least two spot starters because of double-headers on the schedule).  Or perhaps the team will go to a 6-man rotation.

Will Brad Peacock continue his meteoric rise up the organization with a 9/1 callup? Photo bleacherreport.com

Davey Johnson has already called for them.  Jordan Zimmermann‘s innings limit necessitates one of them.  Livan‘s woes beg for one of them.  Who are they?  Starting Pitching prospects.  And when the calendar hits September 1st, the day MLB rosters can expand, we should be seeing a few of them make their way to the Nats roster.  We’re probably going to see guys already on the 40-man make appearances (Chris Marrero?  Corey Brown?), but who else?

But, the signings of Anthony Rendon and Matt Purke filled the two empty slots on the 40-man roster created by the trades of Jerry Hairston and Jason Marquis.  So if you believe reports that the Nats are calling up the likes of Steve Lombardozzi, Brad Peacock and Tom Milone (in addition to adding Stephen Strasburg back to the active roster for a September 6th or 7th re-debut), then we’ve got some 40-man moves to make.

Here’s my predictions on how the team will make room for 4 new 40-man players (remember, Strasburg is currently on the 60-day DL and does not count towards the 40 active players on the “40-man” roster).

• Move Adam LaRoche and Cole Kimball to the 60-day DL.  These are procedural moves that could have been done weeks ago, but the team hasn’t had the need.  Both are clearly done for the season and can easily be moved off.
• Move Doug Slaten to the 60-day dl.  We’ve heard very little news on Slaten since he was put on the DL, which means he’s probably not featuring in the team’s plans for 2011 and can be moved off the 40-man.  We may end up flat out releasing the guy too; he performed so badly this year in terms of WHIP and allowing inherited runners to score that the team certainly would go looking elsewhere for a loogy.  Update: he’s just starting to do rehab stints now; I’m guessing he’ll just be released upon finishing his rehab, as we did with Chad Gaudin.
• Re-call Adam Carr to the majors, then 60-day DL him.  He’s been out since June and this procedural move would mean that nobody needs to be released.  We can add all these 60-day DL guys back to the 40-man once all our free agents and non-tenders go through.

If there are other non 40-man guys to consider adding, I don’ t know who they may be at this point.  Brad Meyers may be reaching an innings limit (based on analysis of his usage in AAA).  There don’t seem to be any relievers in AAA (Mandel, Wilkie?) worth calling up.  We have 2 catchers active and a third (Pudge) getting ready presumably to come off the DL, so we’re set there.

Who would get dumped off the 40-man if we needed to make space?  The leading candidate would have to be the enigmatic Garrett Mock, who has put up startling bad numbers at various levels this year.  Atahualpa Severino is another candidate; having spent 2 full years on the 40-man with exactly one day in the majors.

Lannan, pre-nose shattering liner. Photo Luis Alvarez/AP

The 19th cycle was shortened by one start (Gorzelanny misses a turn in the rotation) as the league hits the all-star break.  We’ll pick up with the 20th cycle on Friday July 15th at the Braves, and will shuffle the order of the starters slightly.

Good

• Jordan Zimmermann took the team into the All Star break with a dominant 7 inning, 4hit, 6k outing against the Rockies on 7/10 (box/gamer).  It was a slightly questionable hook by Davey Johnson; Zimmermann was only on 88 pitches, but perhaps they’re thinking about squeezing innings out of him after we reach September.

Bad

• Livan Hernandez couldn’t protect the EIGHT run lead his offense gave him in the Cubs finale on 7/7 (box/gamer), but it was the bullpen that eventually took the ugly 10-9 loss.

Mediocre/Inconclusive

• John Lannan took a liner off the nose, breaking it, in his 7/8 start (box/gamer).  Unfortunately despite 5ks in 3 innings he also took the loss.
• Jason Marquis was a bit wild in his 7/9 start (box/gamer) against the Rockies, taking the loss despite a 6inning, 2run outing.  Rockies starter Ubaldo Jimenez was too good, taking a no-hitter into the 5th.

Starter Trends: More up-and-down performances out of Livan make you wonder if his rotation spot is really that secure.  Marquis has tailed off at just the wrong time, while Lannan may visit the DL.

MLB Trends (through Zimmermann 7/10)
Lhernandez         bad,great,bad,good,bad
Marquis                good,bad,great,bad,soso
Lannan                 good,good,good,bad,incomplete
Zimmermann     great,good,great,good,good
Gorzelanny          soso,bad->dl,bad,good,good

Relievers of Note and other News

• Further notes about the Yankees interest in Sean Burnett, as reported by Bill Ladson.  Problem is, the Nats would be selling at an absolute low point on Burnett, with little in the way of left-handed relief coming up.
• The news, as suspected, is not good on Cole Kimball.  Torn rotator cuff, surgery required.  Lets hope that he recovers well.

A.J. Cole has quietly begun to dominate low-A ball. photo: AP

(Programming Note: as you may have noticed, i’m about 3 versions of this recurring post behind.  A long weekend away and then two weeks of quick deadlines at work and todo items at home have conspired against these posts.  I hate it when life interferes with blogging!  Anyway, I’ve kept up-to-date the trends, copied over some of the “news and notes” from the older posts and will just pick up with the 14th cycle).

The time has come to add in Short-A (starting 6/17) and GCL (6/20).  There’s 15 arms assigned to the Auburn Doubledays, and it will take a bit to determine who the starters are.  I’ll do a couple of quick posts with predictions versus actual rosters (though predicting the short-season squads is really difficult, since most of the guys there are 2011 draftees).  As always, Sue Dinem has a nice post highlighting where the Auburn roster guys came from (2010 assignment or 2011 draftee).  Lastly, Byron Kerr highlighted the opening day for the Auburn affiliate.

Here are the daily links from NationalsProspects, for reference below:

• Thursday 6/16 game reviews (Meyers, Roark, Bronson, Cole & McCatty)
• Friday 6/17 game reviews (Milone, Davis, Potomac Rained out, Ray, Demmin & Bates)
• Saturday 6/18 game reviews (Stammen, Peacock & Martinez, Holder & Demny, Jordan, Estevez)
• Sunday 6/19 game reviews (Maya, Arneson, Potomac rainout, Solis, Encarnation)
• Monday 6/20 game reviews (Detwiler, Harrisburg/Potomac/Hagerstown off, Lopez, Karns)

Good

• Brad Meyers rebounded from a string of sub-par to bad starts to take the win on 6/16.  Line: 7IP, 7H, 2ER, BB, 4K, HR.  Meyers has (to this point) kept up his unbelievable k/bb ratio (39 to 4 in AAA, 77 to 4 on the season), but has been struggled in AAA thus far (a 4.80 era and well over a hit per inning).
• Tanner Roark also rebounded on 6/16, putting in a quality start (2er in 6ip).   He still seems to have taken a severe step backwards this year (with a 6.00 era on the season) and may be pitching his way out of the team’s long term plans.
• AJ Cole struck out 9 in 5 innings on 6/16, giving him 40 (against 8 walks) in 32 low-A innings thus far.  I’ll take that from a 19yr old.
• Ryan Demmin‘s return to starting pitching on 6/17 for Auburn went well; 5IP, 3H, 1R, 1ER, 3BB, 4K.  He washed out of Potomac’s bullpen earlier in the year; lets see if he can stick in Auburn’s rotation.
• Collin Bates may not have started 6/17’s Auburn game, but he went 4 innings and clearly seems in competition for the rotation (so i’ll grade him here).  Results?  Pretty dominant: 4IP, 2H, 0R, 0BB, 3K.    Lets see if he gets a start the next time through the rotation.
• Brad Peacock got a bit unlucky on 6/17, turning 4 hits over 7 innings into 3 runs, but another 7Ks to pad his gaudy season numbers helped him to the victory.   Honestly, I’m not sure what he really has left to prove in AA; why do we keep Stammen in the AAA rotation if he’s being used out of the pen when he gets called up?
• Paul Demny had his best outing of the year on 6/18, pitching 5 innings of one-hit ball before making way for his bullpen.
• Erik Arneson put up good numbers for Harrisburg (this time) on 6/19: 3 hits and 7 Ks over 6 innings.  As i’ve said before, Arneson seems to have picked the short straw and seems to be the organization’s go-to spot starter.

Bad

• Evan Bronson got hit very hard on 6/16 on the day he seemingly took over Mitchell Clegg‘s rotation spot, giving up 11 hits in 5 and a third.
• An ugly outing for Craig Stammen, perhaps jet-lagged from his brief callup on 6/18.  Line: 3IP 6H, 5ER, BB, 2K, 2HR.
• Carlos Martinez got a spot start to cover for a Harrisburg doubleheader on 6/18, and in doing so became the 12th starter used in AA.  The result?  He showed why he’s not in the rotation, getting peppered for 6 hits and 3 runs over 4 innings.
• Wirkin Estevez had an interesting game in Auburn’s 2nd game of the season on 6/18: 3⅔ IP, 9H, 6R, 6ER, BB, 6K.   9 hits but 6 Ks in less than 4 innings?   Estevez pitched well in the DSL last year, but history has shown that it may not translate to the continental pro game.
• Yunesky Maya returned to Syracuse from a 4-game stint in the bigs, and must have been depressed for his 6/19 start.  He gave up 10 hits over 5 innings.  Unfortunately, I think he better get used to living in upstate New York for a while.  Amazingly he was in line for the victory by virtue of his team’s offense.
• Pedro Encarnation‘s first short-A start was not terrible, but wasn’t great; 3/ 2/3 innings, 3 runs, 4 walks. I’m surprised he’s in the short-A rotation, given that he’s not really shown us much during his first two pro seasons.
• A bad short-A start for Kelvin Lopez, another guy who wasn’t exactly great for us in the GCL last year.  Line: 3⅓ IP, 5H, 3R, 3ER, 2BB, 3K.

Mediocre/Inconclusive

• Shane McCatty had a run of the mill spot-start on 6/16: 4ip, 5 hits, 3 runs (2 earned).  It is the 2nd time in 2 weeks that one of the lesser bullpen arms in Hagerstown has been pressed into action.  Maybe they should have kept Garrett Mock down there for the playoff push.
• Tommy Milone had a poor start (by his standards) on 6/17, giving up 7 hits and 5 runs (4 earned) in less than 6 innings.  He continues his mastery of the strike zone though, now standing at 82ks against 5 walks on the year.  Unfortunately, his ERA has been creeping up over the past few starts, leaking runs here and there.  I still think the team could make use of him in the rotation if the need arises, this year.
• Erik Davis obviously was around the plate on 6/17, giving up 10 hits to go against 8Ks (and 0 walks) in a 6 inning effort.
• Robbie Ray wasn’t quite as dominant as we’ve come to expect on 6/17, but only gave up one run through 5 to take a no-decision.  He gave up quite a few hits and didn’t have nearly the dominant K rates as he has in previous games.  He’s still been amazingly dominant considering his age and his lack of pro experience.
• Trevor Holder‘s performance on 6/18 was probably better than his box score showed: 7 hits and 3 runs over 6 and a third, but all three runs came on one big homer.  It was enough to cost him the loss.
• Taylor Jordan had a quality start on 6/18, but nothing special.  6ip, 3 runs, a couple of Ks.  He’s continued to get wins for Hagerstown with decent numbers and not-very-dominant stuff.  But he has a sub 3.00 era and doesn’t walk a ton of guys.  I don’t know how much upside that means.
• Sammy Solis piched out the string for a Hagerstown team that was eliminated from the first half playoffs on 6/19: 4 innings, couple of earned runs, 5 ks.  Nothing bad, but nothing special.
• Another mediocre (for him) start for Ross Detwiler on 6/20: 6⅔ IP, 3H, 2R, 2ER, 4BB, 3K.  I continue to maintain he’s injured in some way or another and trying to pitch through it.
• Nathan Karns had an up-and-down rehab start in GCL (season opener on 6/20).  2⅔ IP, 1H, 0R, 2BB, 2K.  Its usually difficult to tell who the “starters” are in GCL, but we’ll do our best.

Relievers of Note and other Thoughts

• Mark Zuckerman reports that Chien-Ming Wang is (finally) ready to leave extended spring training and go out on a rehab assignment.  This means he’s going to supplant a starter, somewhere in the system.  I’d guess he’s going to Potomac to start, as they seem to have the least-performing collection of starters right now and he’d completely overmatch the younger hitters in low-A.  The implication of his going out on a rehab assignment is this: he only gets 30 days in the minors (probably about 6 starts) before the Nats have to make a decision on what to do with him.  He has no minor league options, so in 30 days he either joins the 25-man roster, goes back on the DL or is DFA’d.  After all we’ve invested in him (and for the sake of his career), I’m hoping he still has something left.
• The rotation in Harrisburg has proved challenging to keep up with; they’ve now used 11 different starters and we’re only about a 1/2 of the way through the season.  At the time of this writing I can’t tell any longer who is really in the rotation.  Tatusko seems back, but Arneson has pitched well out of the bullpen (though only mediocre as a spot-starter).  I guess its a good problem to have, as they’ve rolled to 10 straight wins recently and are getting pretty dominant performances out of 3/5ths of their rotation nearly every time out.
• Jimmy Barthmaier got slaughtered out of the pen on 6/1, which broke up a decent string of appearances for him lately.  He’s got ugly season-long numbers, is old for AA, and may be on his way out.
• Hagerstown relievers Shane McCatty and Ben Graham both got torched in a very odd 6/1 Hagerstown game.  Its the 3rd such god-awful outing for McCatty this year, sprinkled around decent ones.  Same story for Graham.  Both guys really aren’t getting the k/9 rates they need as bullpen options in the low-minors to have any shot of moving up.
• Christopher Manno numbers, as of June 1st: 25 1/3 innings, 0 earned runs, 8 hits, FOURTY strikeouts against eight walks.  As frequent commenter Mark L might say, “what does this guy have to do to get promoted??”  He proved later on in the month that he is human (giving up a few runs here and there towards the end of the first half), but he still has dominant numbers and merits a promotion.
• Ryan Mattheus looks like he’s fully recovered from 2009 Tommy John surgery, with 24 Ks in 21 innings and only 10 hits allowed through AA and AAA stints on the season.  If anything his numbers have improved at AAA.  His problem is 40-man status; he passed through waivers and was retained by the club, and I’m guessing they won’t want to put him back on until completely necessary (perhaps 9/1 callup?).  Update: he got his long awaited shot at the majors, having been added to the 40-man on 6/10/10. He replaces Cole Kimball, who has “right shoulder inflammation” (as nearly every major league pitcher does) and went on the 15-day DL. Kimball has been pretty effective thus far, but is walking guys far too often and the rest may do him some good.
• Not that Bryce Harper is involved with the pitching in Hagerstown, but I thought i’d take a quick look at how he’s faring with his latest outburst.  As of 6/3, here’s his ranks in the entire Sally League in various categories: 6th in batting average (.346), 3rd in OBP (.432), t-1st in homers, 1st in RBI, 1st in Total bases, 3rd in OPS (1.055), and he’s even t-14th in stolen bases.  Not a bad set of rankings considering he’s like the 2nd youngest guy in the league.
• Brad Peacock is starting to get noticed by some of the ESPN scouts.  Jason Grey featured Peacock on 6/2 from an NL-only fantasy perspective, noting he’s at 95mph with a “good” curve and a developing change-up.  That’s not going to be enough to be a major league starter.  Grey’s espn colleague Keith Law took a Peacock-related question on 6/2, noting that Peacock really is a one-pitch pitcher without an above-average 2nd pitch according to most scouts he’s asked about.  Neither of these reports is really that positive about Peacock’s future unfortunately.  My guess is that he will probably be told to start really working on his change-up, which reportedly has good velocity delta but not much movement and not much command.  You would have to think Peacock needs good command of that third pitch to have any shot at being a starter.
• Interesting Harrisburg moves last week: Oliver Perez going to the DL, with Arneson continuing his pin-ball assignments throughout the organization, coming back down from Syracuse.  He seems to be the designated spot-starter/moving man this season. Erik Davis was on the DL for a quick trip and regains his rotation spot, but it remains to be seen what the rotations look like after this shakes out.
• What is going on with Bobby Hansen??  He hasn’t appeared in a game for Hagerstown since 6/1, but isn’t on the DL.  He seems to have given his rotation spot to Sammy Solis … but hasn’t appeared since.  He wasn’t Hagerstown’s worst starter and had pretty good numbers as a 21-yr old in low-A.  Is he hurt?  Is he in the dog house?  Has he gone and hooked up with the manager’s daughter?
• Tom Milone is starting to get noticed by the national press.  Rob Sickels had a feature on him on 6/20, as did Rob Neyer on sbnation.com
• The busleaguesbaseball blog featured Auburn on 6/20.
• 9-lives pitcher Garrett Mock was placed on the 7-day DL in Harrisburg after two brutal starts there.   As of 6/21, here’s the list of pitchers on the 7-day DL in AA: Mock, Perez, Atilano and Chico.  In other words, a collection of guys who are all way too old for AA and are closer to their outright release than making it back to the big club.
• We may soon see a whole slew of 2011 draftees taking over rotation spots in Auburn.  Some of the “starters” we have there have not exactly impressed during their pro careers, and in some cases makes you wonder how they still have jobs.

Trends

Top 3 deserving promotion: Peacock, Ray, Milone
Top 3 whose jobs are in jeopardy: Mock, Holder, Grace

Maybe its the 2011 haircut that is the source of Lannan’s mediocre start. Photo: Luis M. Alvarez/AP via www.timesunion.com

In his latest outing (5/16 against the Pirates), John Lannan worked around 11 base-runners in 6 and a third innings and only gave up 2 runs (one being inherited and allowed to score by Cole Kimball).  Four walks conspired to cause Lannan grief all afternoon, as well as only throwing 54 of 101 pitches for strikes.  However in the end, it was a quality start and kept the team in the game.

But are we seeing a gradual breakdown in Lannan overall?  After getting sent down in 2010, he had masterful numbers upon his return (6-3 record with a 3.42 era and 1.24 whip in his last 10 starts in 2010).  But he has not been able to carry these numbers into 2011.  Right now, his season long 2011 numbers are WORSE than his combined stats from last year, and despite only really having one egregiously bad outing (2ip, 6runs) his supporting stats are getting to be really concerning.  Here’s what concerns me specifically:

• 1.615 whip.  That’s just way too many base-runners.
• 26ks and 22bbs in 47 IP.

Perhaps I’m being nit-picky; his ERA (4.53) is almost exactly in line with his FIP and xFIP (4.50 and 4.56 respectively) meaning he’s pitching exactly as expected.  His BABIP is .323, meaning he’s been unlucky and is due for a regression of seeing-eye singles costing him hits and base-runners.  His game scores throughout the season have been relatively consistent (mostly 40s and 50s; his high on the season has been 54 and his 5/16 game was a 51).

But, more importantly, even if Lannan is the first in line to be replaced out of our current rotation, we don’t really have anyone in AAA quite yet deserving of the promotion.

The incumbent seemed to be Ross Detwiler, but he’s really struggling so far this year in AAA.  $8M man Yunesky Maya started slow and is coming around, but I want to see more Ks out of him.  Tom Milone‘s k/bb ratio is fantastic but he’s not on the 40-man (though we seem to have an empty spot right now, so perhaps that’s a non-issue).  Newly promoted Brad Meyers needs a few more AAA starts for seasoning but the evidence is there (especially after he dominated AA early in the season); his problem is lack of 40-man status as well.  Lastly Craig Stammen believe it or not may have the best case of them all; best whip, decent numbers, and outside of one bad start has been solid, but he seems to have the least “investment” of any of the starters in Syracuse and seems more likely destined for the bullpen than the MLB rotation.

Interesting decisions lay ahead, especially if Lannan has a couple bad outings in a row.  Remember; Lannan has minor league options (two of them if I read his transactions correctly).  It isn’t really a good statement to option a former opening day starter, but the team has to do what is best.

Why exactly was Slaten left in to pitch 2+ innings last night? Photo Getty Images via zimbio.com

There’s no other way to put it, after watching the unfolding of last night’s bullpen meltdown; carrying Brian Broderick and Henry Rodriguez on this team is having the effect of shortening the bullpen from 7 guys to 5, and is costing this team wins by not allowing Jim Riggleman to put in the right guys at the right time.

WP Beat reporter Adam Kilgore put it more politely, calling the carrying of two essentially worthless pitchers an “unusual roster construction.”  You know what I call it?  A GM who is hand-cuffing his manager.

I have complained in this space several times (mostly summed up here in this March 2011 post) about the implications of the Nats having 3 of their 12 pitchers (Tom Gorzelanny in addition to Broderick and Rodriguez) be essentially “locked” onto the 25-man active roster.  Its one of my main criticisms of the Josh Willingham deal in general; see my post for more opinion but to have only a right handed reliever who your manager cannot use in return for your #5 hitter of the past two years is my definition of a trade failure).  Gorzelanny has pitched much better than anticipated and his roster spot hasn’t been questioned (though for me, that wasn’t always the case either).

To say nothing of this plain fact: If you can’t trust a reliever to come into a close game and get outs, then he should NOT BE ON THE ROSTER.  Its as simple as that.  And clearly neither Broderick or Rodriguez currently falls into that category.

What is the answer?  Mike Rizzo needs to do three things, almost immediately:

1. Invent another “injury” and put Rodriguez back on the DL.  Send him to extended spring, put him back on rehab assignments and tell him he needs to either throw strikes or take a hike.
2. Call St. Louis’ GM and work out a PTBNL trade for Broderick.  Enough is enough; he projects as a #5 starter (maybe) on a team that has 4 good starters.  Is he really part of the future for this team?  Is he going to be better than any of Detwiler, Maya, Meyers, Solis, or Peacock in 2012?  Because that’s who he’s competing with for rotation spots in 2012 (figuring that at least 3 are already spoken for in Strasburg, Zimmermann and Gorzelanny).  Trade for him so you can option him to Syracuse.
3. With these two spots opened up, recall Collin Balester and call up Cole Kimball so you can actually have two useful guys in your pen who you can trust.  If you’re so in love with Rodriguez’s power, Kimball throws nearly as hard and has put up far better bb/9 numbers in AAA.  Balester has been in the majors before, put up great numbers in 2010 out of the pen, and can pitch long relief if needed as a former starter.

Its time for Rizzo to acknowledge his errors in roster construction and fix them.

(As an aside: Jim Riggleman is not totally without fault here: per Ben Goessling‘s report last night, “Todd Coffey and Tyler Clippard [needed] a night off and Drew Storen [was] being saved for a lead.”  Why let Sean Burnett stay in to get out one of Atlanta’s best hitters in Martin Prado?  Why not bring in Storen at this point and use him as the “fireman?”  Is it because he’s the “closer” and you save your closer for save situations?  I certainly hope this wasn’t his thinking.  A managers *should* use his best relievers in the highest leverage situations, and last night Storen should have been used to get out of a bases loaded jam against a tough right-handed hitter, instead of leaving in a lefty who has struggled lately.  But, this post is more about roster construction than reliever use, a topic for another day, and a larger issue in baseball in general).

Is Ankiel the solution for the Nats in center field? Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images via federalbaseball.com

Editors note: I was out of town last weekend and had this queued up but never hit publish :-).

MLB’s Nationals beat writer Bill Ladson hasn’t done an inbox for a few weeks, probably because he’s been busy at spring training.  Now that the regular season has started and we’ve had some debatable 25-man roster decisions made, he has published another edition of his Inbox column.  Here’s how i’d answer the questions he selects…

Q: What are you most worried about with the Nationals in 2011?

A: I’d say, in order, offense, the starting rotation, center field, and the back end of the bullpen.  I feel like we took a step backwards in terms of offense, we have improved the rotation over last year but still would probably rank this rotation 28th or 29th in the league, that Rick Ankiel in center field doesn’t really help us a ton, and that Drew Storen had such a rough spring that our end-of-game scenarios may be challenging.

Q: How do you think the Nationals will fare this season in the National League East with their off-season signings?

A: Probably the same as last year; last place.  Philadelphia and Atlanta are probably playoff bound no matter how many injuries the Phillies sustain.  Florida is probably taking a step side ways, having lost Uggla but picked up Vazquez (honestly, I don’t see how their fans don’t revolt at their perennial 87 win team doesn’t spend the $10 needed to improve themselves to be a 92 win team and challenge for the wild card).  The Nats may finish above the Mets, if only because that franchise is in such disarray right now.  They’re eating more than $20M in salary for players they’ve already released, they made no significant off-season moves and there’s serious injury question marks around 4 of their 5 best paid players (Santana, Beltran, Bay and Francisco Rodriguz).  I can see that time imploding badly and the Nats sneaking ahead of them for 4th place, maybe.

Q: If Bryce Harper has an amazing year in the Minors, is there a chance he will get a Major League callup?

A: They shouldn’t … but they may.  I would not be surprised to see the kid rocket through low-A and high-A ball.  It would be purely a late-season revenue grab to call him up, but they need to be careful on his service time accrual.  If he plays 30 days in September we’d have to keep him down an extra 30 days in 2012 to ensure he doesn’t become a super-2.  For those not clear on the implications of super-2 screwup, read this bit about the mistake the Giants made with Tim Lincecum.

That being said, i’d love to see him playing in the bigs before his 19th birthday.  That’d be fantastic.  And he may very well earn it.  His weakness in the AFL and in spring training was offspeed pitches, but its hard to fault the kid for wanting to swing and make something happen in the limited time he’s seen.  Once a full season gets going and he’s getting 4 ABs every night, he will learn patience, he will earn walks as pitchers work around him, and he’ll pick his spots.  This, more than anything else, is the lesson he needs to learn to advance in the minors.

Q: Do we see a parallel developing between Roger Bernadina and Justin Maxwell? How long do we have to wait?

A: It isn’t a bad parallel to note.  Bernadina lost the LF job, then the CF job, then the 4th outfielder job to a non-roster invitee.  He’s burning his last option as we speak.  He has a career 80 OPS+.  I openly questioned in this space why he was the presumed starter in LF all off-season, and as it turned out I was right about Morse being the better player.  I think he’ll play out the string in AAA this year and get traded for a low-level minor leaguer at the end of spring training 2012, just as we did with Morgan and Gonzalez this week.

Q: What do you think of the job general manager Mike Rizzo and manager Jim Riggleman have done since they took over in 2009?

A: I think Rizzo has done a decent job with the major league team and a pretty good job with the farm system.  I feel like he’s tried a little TOO hard to rid the team of the non-defensive hitters Willingham and Dunn, and could have gotten more for them.  I understand the Werth signing but think (like the rest of baseball) that he overpaid and strangely backloaded the contract (why back load instead of front load?  We’re actually at LESS payroll this year than last, so we could be paying him $20M this year instead of $10M and still look like we’re treading water).  He’s definitely assembled a team in his vision; defensively gifted, a bullpen full of power arms.  Next step; power rotation.

Riggleman is doing the best with what he has; I don’t believe other managers could do much better.  Most people believe we have probably the 28th or 29th best collection of talent in the majors, but we’re achieving better than 29th place.

Q: Besides Harper, which rookie impressed you during Spring Training?

A: I cannot disagree with Ladson’s selection of Cole Kimball as “most impressive rookie.”  I would not be surprised to see him called up in 2011 and to start getting high-leverage appearances.

Commenter Mark L, in response to my statement that (paraphrased) the 2011 Nationals cannot afford to keep rule 5 picks on this team, pointed out that the team really has little chance of competing in 2011 and thus it is really the perfect time to be keeping and testing rule5 guys.

In theory I agree with this premise w.r.t. keeping rule 5 guys.  We’re not going to win the pennant in 2011.

I think in reality though the team has gone mostly backwards since arriving here in 2005 and cannot afford to ever seem as if they’re not trying to make progress.  I blame a lot of that on Bowden’s obsession with former Reds and tools-y players who became such a nightmare to integrate as a team that Acta had to be scuttled as a manager in favor of the more old-school Riggleman. The team lost the entirety of good will and excitement that came with a new stadium and the Lerners as owners had to be shocked at how quickly they destroyed their season ticket base (most observers believe they’ve lost more than half their season ticket holders just from 2009!). So the team is just not in a position to play for the future any more; they have to appear to be improving the team even marginally for the next few years to put themselves in a better position financially.

If the team was really playing for 2013 (as, say, the KC Royals clearly are), they’d never have even brought in the likes of Ankiel, Coffey, Hairston, basically every mid-career veteran and go completely with a lineup of prospects and these rule5 guys.   Arguably they wouldn’t have spent the money on Werth either.  What would the 25-man roster really look like without any FA signings?  Lets take a look:

• Catchers: Pudge, Ramos (remember, they *had* to get Pudge b/c of the state of their catcher depth pre 2010).  If you like, you can replace Pudge with someone like Flores or even Maldonado, since Norris is not ready for the majors in 2011.

• Infield: Marrero, Espinosa, Desmond, Zimmerman backed up by Gonzalez and Lombardozzi.  This would have required a serious leap of faith on the readiness of Marrero for 2011, and we’d be rushing Lombardozzi to the majors.  Perhaps we would have replaced Lombardozzi with Bixler.

• Outfield: Bernadina, Morgan, Burgess, Morse and CBrown.  I know Burgess was traded, but perhaps the team keeps him and installs him in right field knowing they wouldn’t have Werth.  Perhaps Burgess and Morse compete for right field and we bring up newly acquired CBrown as the 5th outfielder.

• Starters: Maya, Detwiler, Livan, Lannan, Zimmermann.  I leave Livan in here if only because we signed him to such a sweetheart deal.  If we don’t count Livan, we’re looking at someone like Stammen, Mock, Detwiler or Chico in that 5th spot.  Or perhaps we use Broderick as the 5th starter instead of putting him in long relief.

• Relievers: Storen, Clippard, Burnett, Slaten, Broderick, HRodriguez and Carr/Kimball (with ERodriguez on DL).  Our bullpen would have hard throwers at the back end and we’d immediately give AFL hero Kimball or Carr a shot.

Of this active roster, 17-18 would be on pre-arbitration salaries and the total payroll would probably be in the $28-30M range for the entire team. It’d be the “right” thing to do but the town would absolutely howl in protest.

I dunno. I go back and forth as a fan. Part of me says screw 2011, play the kids, see what they can do this year and regroup for 2012 when you can have a very good Strasburg-Zimmermann 1-2 punch to go along with general improvement across the rest of our younger guys.  The other part of me says that incremental growth in terms of wins and respectability for this team is just as important in terms of attracting free agents and enabling the team to make a quick leap in a couple years. If this team can win 75 games this year, Strasburg comes back and probably improves the team 5 wins just by himself, we acquire an incrementally better #3 pitcher and hope that Maya, Detwiler and our rising AAA guys become real major league options. If you’re a 81 win team a couple of key free agent signings coupled with the natural rise of our core up and coming players can improve the team 10-12 wins very quickly. Suddenly we’re a 90 win team and still have a manageable payroll to augment and take the next steps to rise above Atlanta and Philadelphia in the division.

That’s “the plan,” right?

Mike Rizzo answering the latest question about where the money is coming from for the Werth contract. Photo: centerfieldgate.com

Each year heading into the off-season, I make up a transactional “to-do” list for the team (as if I were the GM).  Essentially you look at the roster and kind of work backwards.  Based on the way things looked at the end of 2010, the Nationals seemed set on:

• C (Pudge, Ramos)
• most of the infield: 2b (Espinosa), SS (Desmond), 3B (Zimmerman)
• LF (Willingham)
• 3-4 starters (Lannan, Marquis, LHernandez, Zimmermann), and
• several relievers (Clippard, Burnett, Storen)

So, given this, here’s what I listed as off season priorities and where we stand post the Winter Meetings (and counting all the rumors and scuttlebutt we’ve been hearing):

Fantasy

• Power hitting reliable RF
• Top-of-the-rotation Starting Pitcher
• Better Centerfielder/Leadoff Hitter

1. In what was easily the most surprising move this team has done since relocating from Montreal, we acquired a front-line marquee FA in Jayson Werth, satisfying the “power hitting RF” fantasy requirement.  Yes there are concerns about the contract’s length and value, but hey, we’re a better team for getting him.

2. Rizzo has definitely made mention of wanting to acquire a “top of the rotation” starter but they are hard to come by this off season.  Cliff Lee is the target, and from there the list dwindled quickly to include guys who were middle of the road veterans with question marks (Vazquez, Pavano), FA starters that weren’t exactly planning on going anywhere (Lilly, Kuroda, de La Rosa, Arroyo, Garland, Padilla) and incredibly risky alternatives (Webb, Darvish, Francis).

3. Lastly, despite my desire to upgrade from Nyjer Morgan in center and leadoff (for reasons that include discipline, chemistry and performance), Rizzo seems set on the guy for the time being.  I would not be surprised to see no more movement in this area.  I advocated trading Willingham to Boston for possible spare-part outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury in a previous post, but despite Willingham’s offensive capabilities Boston may also value defense and may not really be interested in acquiring more bats this off season.

Reality

• First Baseman
• 1-2 Veteran FA pitchers
• Utility Middle Infielder

1. Acquiring a first baseman included the possibility of re-signing Adam Dunn, despite all indications that it was never to happen.  Rizzo clearly will take less power for more defense at first, and we seem destined to sign Adam LaRoche (after missing out on Carlos Pena, the player I was absolutely sure we’d get).  Frankly, for my money I’d rather have LaRoche.  He’ll sign a 2 year deal for less than any of Dunn, Pena, Konerko or Huff would have signed for, he hits for power and he is a plus defender.  I think he’s perfect until we figure out if Chris Marrero or someone even more remote (like high-A stud hitter and Nats minor leaguer of the year in 2010 Tyler Moore) becomes a possibility.  A final thought; I do NOT want to be left with Derrek Lee as the solution.  He’s a right handed hitter on a team that is now full of them.  Zimmerman, Willingham, Werth all righties; we need a lefty slugger to break up the middle of our batting order.

2. I still see the acquisition of one or two veteran FA pitchers on the horizon.  I can see us (unless someone foolishly offers him $10M) signing Brandon Webb on a one year flier.  I can see us re-signing Wang to a minor league deal with an invite to spring training.

3. The backup middle infielder is a lower priority but still important.  If Desmond/Espinosa are holding down the starting spots and Alberto Gonzalez is begrudingly serving as the primary glove-man backup, we still need a second player that can do middle infield.  Willie Harris has been that player but he really tailed off last season.  Adam Kennedy served as the backup for the right side of the infield but he clearly wants to start.  I was lobbying for Pete Orr as a nice cheap candidate; he had always produced for us when called up, could play 2nd, 3rd or even outfield.  But he signed elsewhere as a minor league FA.  Perhaps the answer is a prospect to be named (Lombardozzi?) or a FA signing.  I like David Eckstein to team him up with his hitting-coach brother but he probably wants a starting job too.  And Eckstein wouldn’t make sense unless we traded one of Desmond/Espinosa (still a possibility; see later).

Less Likely

• FA Closer
• Trade for a Veteran pitcher
• 1 veteran bullpen presence

1. There are a couple closer-types on the FA market and I can now see the Nats picking one up ala their deal with Matt Capps to cover for Storen as he grows into the spot.  Jenks, Dotel,Gregg, Hoffman, Soriano, Wood all available (Soriano a type-A though, so we wont’ get him).  I think this would make for a good piece of business and could serve as a useful trade chip mid season.

2. I can see us working out a trade with Tampa Bay to acquire Matt Garza.  Tampa wants to get rid of payroll, not add it, but perhaps we can pre-arrange a one-year deal with Willingham and flip him to Tampa.  Washington could eat some of the salary and Willingham would slot nicely into the left field spot recently vacated by Carl Crawford.  Tampa may like this deal since Willingham projects to be a type-A free agent and would net them 2 picks when he leaves (you have to think Willingham wants to get at least a 3-year deal when he hits the FA market based on his age and his proclivities for injuries).  Of course, getting rid of Willingham also puts a hole into OUR lineup, one that looks pretty promising when we get a power hitting lefty first baseman.  And we certainly would like to get some compensation picks to continue to rebuild the farm system.  More likely Tampa would ask for someone like Desmond, which would be a tough trade to swallow for a team that hasn’t really developed that many marquee players in the last 5 years.  We could trade Desmond, acquire Garza, move Espinosa to short (where he’s a better fielder anyway) then sign a short term 2nd baseman like David Eckstein or Orlando Hudson until one of our high-end 2nd base prospects (Lobardozzi, Rick Hague or Jeff Kobernus) is ready to go.

3. Lastly, with not one but TWO arms picked up in the rule5 draft, the likelihood of us acquiring any veteran bullpen arms seems nil.  Perhaps we re-sign Peralta as a long man, but we have plenty of cover there in Balester and Stammen.  We have all the arms we could want coming up (Kimball, Carr, Wilkie all project as mid-bullpen arms, and the AA team is filled with good arms with no place to move up to with so many AAA starters on the 40-man) and we have three great live arms in Storen, Clippard and Burnett already in place.

It has been a pretty fun offseason to track thus far for Nats fans.  I can’t wait to see what happens next.

Sammy Solis pitching in high school. Photo www.azdiamondreport.com

Sammy Solis (pronounced Soo-lease) was the Nats 2nd round pick in the June amateur draft.  Some pundits questioned whether we’d be able to sign him as the August 15th deadline approached.  However, we got his deal done for slightly above slot (along with a couple other question marks in AJ Cole and Robbie Ray, both of whom got far above slot for 4th and 12th rounders respectively).

After putting in a couple of scoreless (albeit abbreviated) starts in Hagerstown, we sent him off to the AFL.  He got the start in the AFL championship game today, and this being the first time this Nats fan got a chance to look at him we tuned in.  His team Scottsdale ended up winning the game 3-2 to win the championship.

Observations: he has a pretty easy arm motion.  He has a low three-quarters arm slot, almost sidearm.  The left-hander brings a variable speed fastball that goes from 91-92 to speeds in the 97 range. He has been working on a cut-fastball, which would explain the low-90s version of the fastball versus the high-end ball.  He has a side-arm curve in the mid-70s mpg range that he sometimes struggled to keep in the zone (one of the criticisms of Solis is that his curve isn’t sharp enough, probably because of the arm slot resulting in more of a “slurve” instead of a nice breaking curve).  He definitely has gained significant speed on his fastball since his days at U. San Diego, at least if you trust this scouting report or this one and if you trust the gun on TV.  Keith Law liked him in college and predicts a quick rise through the minors. I didn’t necessarily too many change-ups, which is too bad since reportedly it is a plus pitch for him but isn’t out of character for an amateur-recently-turned-pro pitcher.

He benefited on the day from a rather large strike zone (getting Dustin Ackley on a called 3rd strike in the first that may have been slightly up and away) but he definitely showed some dominance over a strong lineup.  He got the side in order in the first, gave up a walk and a broken bat single in the second.  He got a double-play ball that was thrown away giving up a run in the 2nd (the run is earned despite the error on the double play attempt).  In the 3rd he worked the first hitter well, fooling him on a change-up and then striking him out w/ a nice curve before getting the next two guys on a deep flyball and a grounder to short.  He works fast, he’s always around the strike zone and he looked pretty comfortable on the mound.

In the 4th he got Ackley down 0-2 but then gave up a single to left to the AFL’s leading hitter and MVP and (arguably) closest prospect to the majors.  Solis showed some decent moves to first, showing a conventional and a quick-throw over, nearly picking Ackley off at one point.  He gave up another single after getting the count worked to 3-2 against Peoria’s cleanup hitter Ryan Lavarnway.  Eventually he leaked a 2nd run after another error in the infield.  He left the game with the lead after his team got him a run in the bottom of the 4th.  I can’t say that anyone really got “good wood” on him all day; the best hit balls being one deep flyball and perhaps the two singles in the fourth.

The Scottsdale Scorpions featured no less than four Nats in the starting lineup (Steve Lombardozzi, Derek Norris and Bryce Harper) with a couple more prospects (Adam Carr and Cole Kimball)  in the bullpen.  Norris legged out a deep grounder to 3rd that probably was an error but showed some great speed for a catcher.  He also got himself into scoring position with some heads up base-running before getting driven in by a sac fly in the 2nd.  Lombardozzi ripped a double in the 4th to give his team the lead.  Kimball pitched a 1-2-3 9th and showed a 98-mph fastball with good secondary pitches, further proof that he has a realistic chance to make the Nats bullpen in 2011.

Harper hit the first pitch he saw, going with a fastball outside and up and driving it through the right side of the field to drive in a run.  Definitely a nice swing but continues his trend of swinging early in the count.  One thing the Nats will definitely ask him to work on is patience at the plate in the minors next year.  That being said, it is awfully hard to criticize a known baseball rat who sat the entire summer and only got to play twice a week in the AFL for his patience at the plate.  In each subsequent at bat he also went up hacking at the first pitch.  In the 4th he popped up to right.  In his third AB he again swung at the first pitch and missed badly on a curve.  He then missed just as badly on two more similar curves, striking out.  And in his last at bat he K’d again after fouling a couple pitches off.

Conclusions: well, its hard not to be excited about the slew of Nats prospects in this game overall, and by Solis in particular.  He wasn’t Strasburg-esque in terms of dominance but he controlled the zone and seemed comfortable on the mound against the Minor’s best.  I can see him starting 2011 in Potomac and quickly moving up to Harrisburg, with an eye for a debut in 2012.  Norris is the real deal and I’m beginning to see why Law believes Norris is our “catcher of the future” and not Ramos or even Flores at this point.  Kimball gives the Nats something we really don’t have; a serious power arm to bring in to game in the 6th or 7th to shut down rallies.  Lombardozzi seems undersized but, well, he’s a middle infielder, and we all know who and what Harper is capable of.

Can we just fast forward to 2012?