brian broderick at Nationals Arm Race

Nats Rule-5 Draft History (drafted and taken from us); updated for 2019, 2020, 2021

Sharp taken in rule-5 draft, as many of us predicted. Photo unk via talknats.com

The Nats for years were heavy participants in the Rule-5 draft, thanks to some pretty awful teams and no real aspirations to compete on the field. From 2010 on-wards they stopped taking players, but have lost some players here and there. This post is all about players taken and lost in Rule 5 drafts.. We have not posted on this in some time; that’s because its been a while since a player of some significance was taken. Well, on 12/12/19 a player that most of us thought should have been protected a few weeks ago ahead of this draft went 3rd overall to Miami in Sterling Sharp, so I thought it was a good time to bring this back out.

Past versions of this post: December 2016, January of 2014. and November 2011.

Borrowing a chunk of the text for the previous years from the previous post, here’s a list of the Rule 5 drafts since 2005, with our players taken/received noted and with some thoughts on how the player turned out for either side. I’ve tried to update all Rule 5 candidates with career dispositions.

Note: this post used to be to pass judgement on our Rule-5 picks, so when you see “Verdict: Failure” that’s what it means. Its been so long since we tried to draft someone that I forgot what it was like. Suffice it to say … there’s not a lot of success with these picks, either for those we took or those who got taken from us.

(A reminder: These minor league rule-5 acquisitions are essentially $12,000 purchases and the drafters now own these contracts; I’m not entirely clear on the rules that drive them, nor how the players are determined to be eligible, nor if there’s any requirements that the players have to stay on a particular roster).

2021 update: thanks to the lockout, the entire Rule-5 draft was cancelled in 2021.

2020 Update: We selected no one, nor did we have anyone selected from us in either the major or minor league phase of the 2020 Rule-5 draft. So no updates to this post for this year.

MLB beat reporter Jessica Camerato posted a nice Rule-5 history lesson on 12/11/20.

2019 rule 5 Draft (ahead of the 2020 season):

Conducted 12/12/19: Nats did not take any players in the major league phase for the 9th straight year. Sterling Sharp, a 2016 22nd round RHP starter, was taken from us by Miami with the 3rd overall pick. This was a frustration for many pundits, who clearly had identified Sharp as someone to protect ahead of the deadline. With rosters expanding to 26, the Marlins (who are barely trying) get a free prospect who probably can sit in their MLB bullpen all year if he can’t make the rotation. I mean, right now I project the Marlins rotation as the worst in the sport; if Sharp can’t fit into the 5th starter/swing man role for the worst rotation in the majors …

Post Publishing update: Sharp was returned to the Nats on 8/27/20 after four un-impressive appearances for the Marlins.

In the Minor league phase:

Nats took SS Manuel Geraldo from San Francisco
Nats had taken from us SS David Masters by the chicago Cubs

Masters is listed as declared a MLFA by milb.com, so i’m not entirely sure how he was still available in Rule-5, but so be it. Perhaps he re-signed under the radar and then got plucked.

So, notable players who we were “worried” about getting picked but who now are safe for another season include the likes of Mario Sanchez, Taylor Gushue, Joan Baez, Andrew Istler, Jakson Reetz, Steven Fuentes, Jhonathan German and Nick Banks.

2018 Rule 5 Draft (ahead of 2019 season)

Full Draft results: The Nats did not take anyone, nor have anyone taken from them in the Major league phase.

In the Minor league phase:

Nats selected CF Chuck Taylor from Seattle.
Nats had taken from them C Alejandro Flores by Houston.

Taylor hit a combined .229 across AA and AAA for the Nats in 2019, then hit MLFA. Flores was assigned eventually to High-A in late May 2019. He played 2 games, went on the DL, then was released three weeks later. He picked up with a Mexican League team soon after, barely played there but remains on their active roster.

2017 Rule 5 Draft (ahead of the 2018 season)

Full Draft Results here. The Nats did not take anyone, nor have anyone taken from them in the Major league phase.

In the Minor league phase:

Nats selected 2B Jacob Wilson from St Louis
Nats selected RHP Kaleb Fleck from Arizona
Nats had taken from them LHP Robert “RC” Orlan by Cleveland

Wilson hit solidly for AAA Syracuse in 2018, then started hot in Fresno AAA in 2019 before being released so he could pursue an opportunity in Korean baseball. He remains there today. Fleck was sent to AA Harrisburg for the 2018 season and didn’t pitch badly, but was released in July. He pitched a little bit of Indy ball for a team near his home in PA, but likely retired after 2018 season at the age of 29. Orlan bounced around five different teams for Cleveland in 2018, then settled into AAA to start 2019, got shelled, and was released in May.

2016 Rule 5 Draft (ahead of the 2017 season)

Full draft results here for the 12/8/16. For the sixth straight year, the Nats did not take anyone in the major league phase. For the third time in a row, we did not have anyone taken either. Lets pause to congratulate the team for its excellence in player analysis.

In the minor league phase:

the Nats did not take anyone
RHP reliever Philp Walby was taken in the “AAA phase” by Toronto.

We acquired Walby on 5/31/16 as a MLFA from the New York Yankees and he pitched quite ably for us in Hagerstown, with more than a K/inning. He was in his age 24 year though, so clearly “old for the level” and i’m guessing Toronto is banking on him being able to compete in the upper levels immediately. Its notable that milb.com never even bothered to get him in the Hagerstown Suns hat for his profile :-).

Walby pitched of 2017 in-between Low-A and High-A for Toronto’s affiliates, elected MLFA after the season, and has not pitched since.

2015 Rule 5 Draft (ahead of the 2016 season)

This occurred on 12/10/15. The Nationals did not take anyone in the major league phase, nor did they have anyone taken.

In the minor league phase:

the Nationals selected 3B Zack Cox from the Miami organization
The Nats did not have anyone taken from them.

Cox was entering his age 27 season, is a former 1st round pick and has bounced around AA and AAA the last four seasons. He seemed like good AAA 3B insurance for the ever-injured Anthony Rendon (hey, has this comment aged well or what?), but Cox never even made it to Syracuse, getting released on 4/2/16 and never picking back up with another franchise.

2014 Rule 5 Draft (ahead of the 2015 season)

For the first time since their arrival in DC, the Washington Nationals neither took a player in Rule-5 nor had one taken.

2013 Rule 5 Draft (ahead of the 2014 season)

The team did not select anyone in the major league phase. We did lose one player in the MLB phase:

C Adrian Nieto was the 2nd overall pick in the major league phase, by the Chicago White Sox. As commenters at the time noted, it seemed like an odd pick for the White Sox, who had a couple of younger developing catchers in their system. Meanwhile Nieto had never played above A-ball but did hit .285/.373/.449 prior to the 2014 season. Those are pretty good numbers for a catcher … even if he’s an old 24 in A-Ball. I didn’t even mention him in my own pre-Rule5 analysis piece at the time, but amazingly he stuck on the White Sox roster for the entire 2014 season, hitting .236/.296/.340. The White Sox sent him to AA for 2015, he elected FA (presumably after being DFA’d) and signed as a MLFA with Miami for 2016. Nieto continues to bounce around the minors to this day, playing sparingly for AA Jacksonville in 2019.

In the minor league phase, the Nats took a couple of players for organizational depth: Theo Bowe, a AA outfielder from Cincinnati and Martires Arias, a low-A right-hander from the New York Mets. Neither player really panned out: Bowe was left in XST the entire year and Arias was released before the season started.

2012 Rule 5 Draft

Again, the team did not select anyone but got poached for four players in the major and minor phase.

LHP Danny Rosenbaum was drafted by Colorado to take part in their unique rotation experiment (where guys work up to a certain pitch count each night). Rosenbaum didn’t make the Rockie’s pitching staff out of spring training (somewhat an indictment of Rosenbaum’s skills; Colorado’s rotation was one of the worst in the majors in 2013) and he was returned to Nats. Rosenbaum toiled in AAA for the Nats for the 2013 full season. He was the AAA opening day starter in 2014 but blew his UCL and had TJ Surgery. In Jan 2015 the team flipped him to Boston for Dan Butler, and he got roughed up in Boston’s system (0-8, 5.81 ERA). He was released on 3/28/16 and may be done playing.
Utility player Jeff Kobernus was drafted by the Boston Red Sox, traded to Tigers and then eventually returned to Nats. Kobernus turned out to be quite the speedster, stealing nearly a base every other game in the minors and earned a call-up to the big team in 2013. He struggled with injury, spending a chunk of 2014 on the 60 day D/L and had just a handful of MLB atbats. The team released him mid spring training 2015, he picked up with the San Francisco organization and played near his home town in San Jose in 2015, struggling in High-A ball. Kobernus never signed after the 2015 season and may be done playing.
In the minor league phase, Nats draft bust Jack McGeary was taken by the Red Sox. He threw 21 ineffective innings in short-A and low-A for Boston in 2013. He’s from Boston, so it was a nice gesture, but it just doesn’t look like he’s ever going to recover from his arm issues. Hey, at least he got his Stanford education and his bonus money. He signed as a MLFA with the Los Angeles Dodgers organization for 2014, struggled again in A-ball, and did not sign for 2015.
The Dodgers poached Hector Nelo from the Nats AA team and stuck him on their own AA team … where he promptly made the all-star game again and had another excellent season. I’ll be honest; I do not know the minor league rule-5 protection rules, but I wonder why an all-star player was exposed, no matter what his age. Nelo struggled in 2014, was released and looks like he’s out of affiliated ball. So perhaps the team was a year early but still right in exposing him to Rule 5.

2011 Rule 5 Draft

The Nats did not take anyone for the first time in years, but had two players themselves taken. Neither player drafted was a surprise; I posted at the time that I thought both these players should have been protected.

Brad Meyers (RH starting pitcher) was drafted by the New York Yankees, but he suffered an injury in spring training and was DL’d all year. He was returned to the Nats and subsequently missed all of 2013 too. I listed him as a “release candidate” in my 2014 rotation projections, not knowing if he was healthy or if he could win a AAA rotation spot that year; he ended up making 6 starts in AA and was released. He’s now out of baseball.
Erik Komatsu was drafted by St. Louis (in retaliation for our taking Broderick the previous year?), made their 2012 opening day roster, played for a while before being waived, got picked up by Minnesota, and by Memorial Day was returned to Washington in a whirlwind set of transactions. He got hurt in 2013 and played just a few games for the Nats AA and AAA teams, then was released on 5/9/14. He signed immediately with the Angels, bounced to Milwaukee, was a MLFA after the season and did not play in organized ball in 2015.

2010 Rule 5 Draft

Elvin Ramirez, RH reliever, drafted from the New York Mets: he was injured in spring training and spent the entirety of the season on the DL. Interestingly, the team returned him to New York in October, long before they needed to, and with New York in 2012 he made his way to the majors for some appearances. The Mets eventually sold him to the Angels, then he bounced around in MLFA to Pittsburgh and Cincinnati, and in 2015 was playing in the Mexican league. Verdict: impatience leading to failure.
Brian Broderick, RH Starting Pitcher, Drafted from St. Louis and stuck into the 2011′s bullpen as the long-man/mop-up guy. He was awful, he was costing the team wins, and was eventually returned to St. Louis before May was out. However, St. Louis waived him towards the end of 2012 and we picked him back up. I projected him to be one of our AAA starters in 2013 but he struggled and ended the season in AA and was cut loose. He pitched in Indy ball in 2014, well enough to get a MLFA contract in 2015, spending the whole year in the Royal’s AAA team. He did not sign or play for 2016 and may be done. Verdict: failure across the board.

The team lost one player in the 2010 draft:

The Phillies drafted Michael Martinez away from the Nats, and he stuck on their roster as a backup middle infielder. His batting lines were awful though, and the Nats clearly had depth at middle infield at the time, so losing this player was not that big of a deal. Martinez has continued to hit sub .200 but has bounced from Philly to Pittsburgh to Cleveland, splitting time between AAA and the major league rosters providing MIF cover.

2009 Rule 5 Draft

Jamie Hoffman; OF, Drafted with the #1 pick in the Rule 5 draft from Los Angeles Dodgers and immediately traded for Brian Bruney in a pre-arranged deal. NY returned him to the Dodgers later that spring. Bruney, meanwhile, immediately went to arbitration and lost with the team in the spring of 2010, was awful out of the gate, and the team outright released him before the end of May. Verdict: failure, all the way around this transaction.

The team lost one player in this draft:

Zech Zinicola was drafted away from us by Toronto, who eventually returned him to the Nats without any Toronto appearances. His selection was probably due to Dana Brown‘s hiring in Toronto, going from Washington’s Scouting Director to being a special assistant to the GM in Toronto. Zinicola remained in our farm system until 2013, when he was released.

2008 Rule 5 Draft

Terrell Young: Drafted with the #1 pick in the Rule 5 draft from Cincinnati. He got hurt, never played for us, and was eventually returned to the Reds. His injury was severe enough that he was out of baseball after being drafted; he has no professional games after 2008. Verdict: failure.
Ricardo Nanita, selected in the minor league phase, played most of 2009, then went to the Mexican league, then got picked up by Toronto in minor league free agency and has been there ever since, playing all of 2013 in Buffalo. Verdict: failure.

The team lost two players in the minor league phase:

RHP Luis Ortega to Royals was picked up off the Nats rookie squad, pitched one more season for Kansas City’s rookie squad and was cut.
RHP Josh Perrault was picked up by the Orioles, who bounced him around their farm system for a couple of years before he retired in 2010.

2007 Rule 5 Draft

Matt Whitney: 1B/3B, Drafted and then eventually returned back to Cleveland, who eventually made the former 1st rounder a ML free agent and we signed him after the 2008 season. We cut him after the 2009 season and he retired after 2010. Verdict: failure.
Garrett Guzman: LF/RF: after Rule-5 selecting him, the team eventually traded a PTBNL for him to Minnesota, then we cut him outright and nobody picked him up. He played two years of Independent ball and was out of baseball after 2010. Guzman is more infamously known as the player who was caught having sex with an underage girl while playing for our AA team in Harrisburg in 2008, likely the reason why nobody picked him up after his DFA. Verdict: embarrassing failure.

The Nats lost one player of note in the minor league phase in this draft:

Brett Campbell was drafted by Milwaukee in the AAA phase of the rule-5 draft. Milwaukee released him in spring training of the subsequent 2008 season and Campbell never played another inning of pro baseball. This seems especially odd to me: he was drafted in 2004 and rose all the way through the Nats system to debut in the majors by Sept of 2006. He pitched in just two games in 2006, and returned to the minors in 2007. Was he hurt? He was only 26 when he apparently hung them up. Oddity.

2006 Rule 5 Draft

Jesus Flores, C, drafted from the New York Mets, stuck with the team all year despite having only played high-A ball in the minors. Despite his eventual injury issues that plagued him for the better part of 3 seasons, Flores remains the best example of a “found gold” prospect that can be had in the Rule 5 draft. After the Nats DFA’d him last off-season, he bounced around both LA and Tampa’s AAA teams in 2013 but did not appear in the majors. Verdict: success.
Levale Speigner RHP (a closer) was drafted from Minnesota and, as with Booker above, eventually was traded for by the Nats so they could keep him and stash him in the minors. After some awful outings for the big team, he passed through waivers mid 2008 and was released from AAA in 2008, bounced around a couple other organizations, and retired after 2010. Verdict: failure.

The Nats lost one player in this draft:

Alejandro Machada was drafted by Minnesota just a month after the Nats had re-signed him to a minor league contract. So Machada didn’t have to stay on their active roster. And indeed he didn’t; he was injured all of 2007 and stayed with Minnesota’s AAA team until 2009, never again broaching the majors.

2005 Rule 5 Draft

The Nats did not draft anyone, but had a player taken who went on a whirlwind tour of MLB organizations before getting returned mid 2006.

Chris Booker was rule-5 drafted by Detroit, who immediately sold him to Philadelphia, who then waived him in May of 2006 with the intent of returning him … except that Kansas City picked him up, hung onto him for a couple months and eventually returned him to Washington. The Nats eventually called him up but he was relatively ineffective and he washed out of the game (seemingly due to injuries) after 2008.

2004 Rule 5 Draft (ahead of the 2005 season)

Tony Blanco: 1B; drafted from Cincinnati. He batted .177 as a 1st baseman backup while eating a roster spot all season, then we cut him from AAA after 2007. He kicked around Colorado’s system for a year and has been playing in Japan ever since. Verdict: failure.
Tyrell Godwin: CF, drafted from Toronto. Prior to the 2005 season, the team traded another minor leaguer to keep his rights, so this really played out less like a Rule-5 pickup in that Godwin didn’t have to stick on the 25-man roster all year. He played a grand total of 3 games for the Nats, kicked around AAA for a while an hung them up in 2007. Verdict: failure.

Summary: we’ve drafted 11 guys in the MLB phase Rule 5 draft since 2005, and I’d classify 10 of the 11 draftees as eventual failures. Not a great track record. Plus its safe to say that most every player drafted FROM us has been a failure for the drafting team. Clearly the Rule 5 draft isn’t a great way to reliably find players. Why do we do so much analysis on it? I dunno, because its fun? Because its December and we’re desperate for Baseball news? Fair enough 🙂

Written by Todd Boss

December 13th, 2019 at 10:20 am

Nats Rule-5 Draft History; updated for 2016

27 comments

Jesus Flores remains our most successful Rule 5 Draftee. Photo Toni Sandys/Washington Post

The Nats for years were heavy participants in the Rule-5 draft, thanks to some pretty awful teams and some shrewd scouting. I first did this history post in November 2011, updating in in January of 2014 and here I update it for the last couple of draft results and drafted player disposition updated for the latest season.

Borrowing a chunk of the text for the previous years from the previous post, here’s a list of the Rule 5 drafts since 2005, with our players taken/received noted and with some thoughts on how the player turned out for either side. Even though there wasn’t any 2016 Rule 5 action for the team, I’ve added a bunch of updates for all the recently involved players, updating their career dispositions.

Note: this post used to be to pass judgement on our Rule-5 picks, so when you see “Verdict: Failure” that’s what it means. Its been so long since we tried to draft someone that I forgot what it was like.

2016 Rule 5 Draft (ahead of the 2017 season)

Full draft results here for the 12/8/16. For the sixth straight year, the Nats did not take anyone in the major league phase. For the third time in a row, we did not have anyone taken either. Lets pause to congratulate the team for its excellence in player analysis.

In the minor league phase, the Nats did not take anyone, but did have one player taken: RHP reliever Philp Walby was taken in the “AAA phase” by Toronto. We acquired Walby on 5/31/16 as a MLFA from the New York Yankees and he pitched quite ably for us in Hagerstown, with more than a K/inning. He was in his age 24 year though, so clearly “old for the level” and i’m guessing Toronto is banking on him being able to compete in the upper levels immediately. Its notable that milb.com never even bothered to get him in the Hagerstown Suns hat for his profile :-).

(These minor league acquisitions are essentially $12,000 purchases and the drafters now own these contracts; I’m not entirely clear on the rules that drive them, nor how the players are determined to be eligible, but suffice it to say that Walby isn’t exactly a high-end prospect on our collective radars.)

2015 Rule 5 Draft (ahead of the 2016 season)

This occurred on 12/10/15. The Nationals did not take anyone in the major league phase, nor did they have anyone taken.

In the minor league phase, the Nationals selected 3B Zack Cox from the Miami organization. He was entering his age 27 season, is a former 1st round pick and has bounced around AA and AAA the last four seasons. He seemed like good AAA 3B insurance for the ever-injured Anthony Rendon, but Cox never even made it to Syracuse, getting released on 4/2/16 and never picking back up with another franchise.

2014 Rule 5 Draft (ahead of the 2015 season)

For the first time since their arrival in DC, the Washington Nationals neither took a player in Rule-5 nor had one taken.

2013 Rule 5 Draft (ahead of the 2014 season)

The team did not select anyone in the major league phase. We did lose one player in the MLB phase:

C Adrian Nieto was the 2nd overall pick in the major league phase, by the Chicago White Sox. As commenters at the time noted, it seemed like an odd pick for the White Sox, who had a couple of younger developing catchers in their system. Meanwhile Nieto had never played above A-ball but did hit .285/.373/.449 prior to the 2014 season. Those are pretty good numbers for a catcher … even if he’s an old 24 in A-Ball. I didn’t even mention him in my own pre-Rule5 analysis piece at the time, but amazingly he stuck on the White Sox roster for the entire 2014 season, hitting .236/.296/.340. The White Sox sent him to AA for 2015, he elected FA (presumably after being DFA’d) and signed as a MLFA with Miami for 2016. After playing sparingly for New Orleans in 2016, he is a MLFA as we speak.

In the minor league phase, the Nats took a couple of players for organizational depth: Theo Bowe, a AA outfielder from Cincinnati and Martires Arias, a low-A right-hander from the New York Mets. Neither player really panned out: Bowe was left in XST the entire year and Arias was released before the season started.

2012 Rule 5 Draft

Again, the team did not select anyone but got poached for four players in the major and minor phase.

LHP Danny Rosenbaum was drafted by Colorado to take part in their unique rotation experiment (where guys work up to a certain pitch count each night). Rosenbaum didn’t make the Rockie’s pitching staff out of spring training (somewhat an indictment of Rosenbaum’s skills; Colorado’s rotation was one of the worst in the majors in 2013) and he was returned to Nats. Rosenbaum toiled in AAA for the Nats for the 2013 full season. He was the AAA opening day starter in 2014 but blew his UCL and had TJ Surgery. In Jan 2015 the team flipped him to Boston for Dan Butler, and he got roughed up in Boston’s system (0-8, 5.81 ERA). He was released on 3/28/16 and may be done playing.
Utility player Jeff Kobernus was drafted by the Boston Red Sox, traded to Tigers and then eventually returned to Nats. Kobernus turned out to be quite the speedster, stealing nearly a base every other game in the minors and earned a call-up to the big team in 2013. He struggled with injury, spending a chunk of 2014 on the 60 day D/L and had just a handful of MLB atbats. The team released him mid spring training 2015, he picked up with the San Francisco organization and played near his home town in San Jose in 2015, struggling in High-A ball. Kobernus never signed after the 2015 season and may be done playing.
In the minor league phase, Nats draft bust Jack McGeary was taken by the Red Sox. He threw 21 ineffective innings in short-A and low-A for Boston in 2013. He’s from Boston, so it was a nice gesture, but it just doesn’t look like he’s ever going to recover from his arm issues. Hey, at least he got his Stanford education and his bonus money. He signed as a MLFA with the Los Angeles Dodgers organization for 2014, struggled again in A-ball, and did not sign for 2015.
The Dodgers poached Hector Nelo from the Nats AA team and stuck him on their own AA team … where he promptly made the all-star game again and had another excellent season. I’ll be honest; I do not know the minor league rule-5 protection rules, but I wonder why an all-star player was exposed, no matter what his age. Nelo struggled in 2014, was released and looks like he’s out of affiliated ball. So perhaps the team was a year early but still right in exposing him to Rule 5.

2011 Rule 5 Draft

The Nats did not take anyone for the first time in years, but had two players themselves taken. Neither player drafted was a surprise; I posted at the time that I thought both these players should have been protected.

Brad Meyers (RH starting pitcher) was drafted by the New York Yankees, but he suffered an injury in spring training and was DL’d all year. He was returned to the Nats and subsequently missed all of 2013 too. I listed him as a “release candidate” in my 2014 rotation projections, not knowing if he was healthy or if he could win a AAA rotation spot that year; he ended up making 6 starts in AA and was released. He’s now out of baseball.
Erik Komatsu was drafted by St. Louis (in retaliation for our taking Broderick the previous year?), made their 2012 opening day roster, played for a while before being waived, got picked up by Minnesota, and by Memorial Day was returned to Washington in a whirlwind set of transactions. He got hurt in 2013 and played just a few games for the Nats AA and AAA teams, then was released on 5/9/14. He signed immediately with the Angels, bounced to Milwaukee, was a MLFA after the season and did not play in organized ball in 2015.

2010 Rule 5 Draft

Elvin Ramirez, RH reliever, drafted from the New York Mets: he was injured in spring training and spent the entirety of the season on the DL. Interestingly, the team returned him to New York in October, long before they needed to, and with New York in 2012 he made his way to the majors for some appearances. The Mets eventually sold him to the Angels, then he bounced around in MLFA to Pittsburgh and Cincinnati, and in 2015 was playing in the Mexican league. Verdict: impatience leading to failure.
Brian Broderick, RH Starting Pitcher, Drafted from St. Louis and stuck into the 2011′s bullpen as the long-man/mop-up guy. He was awful, he was costing the team wins, and was eventually returned to St. Louis before May was out. However, St. Louis waived him towards the end of 2012 and we picked him back up. I projected him to be one of our AAA starters in 2013 but he struggled and ended the season in AA and was cut loose. He pitched in Indy ball in 2014, well enough to get a MLFA contract in 2015, spending the whole year in the Royal’s AAA team. He did not sign or play for 2016 and may be done. Verdict: failure for the Nats, jury still out for the player.

The team lost one player in the 2010 draft:

The Phillies drafted Michael Martinez away from the Nats, and he stuck on their roster as a backup middle infielder. His batting lines were awful though, and the Nats clearly had depth at middle infield at the time, so losing this player was not that big of a deal. Martinez has continued to hit sub .200 but has bounced from Philly to Pittsburgh to Cleveland, splitting time between AAA and the major league rosters providing MIF cover.

2009 Rule 5 Draft

Jamie Hoffman; OF, Drafted with the #1 pick in the Rule 5 draft from Los Angeles Dodgers and immediately traded for Brian Bruney in a pre-arranged deal. NY returned him to the Dodgers later that spring. Bruney, meanwhile, immediately went to arbitration and lost with the team in the spring of 2010, was awful out of the gate, and the team outright released him before the end of May. Verdict: failure, all the way around this transaction.

The team lost one player in this draft:

Zech Zinicola was drafted away from us by Toronto, who eventually returned him to the Nats without any Toronto appearances. His selection was probably due to Dana Brown‘s hiring in Toronto, going from Washington’s Scouting Director to being a special assistant to the GM in Toronto. Zinicola remained in our farm system until 2013, when he was released.

2008 Rule 5 Draft

Terrell Young: Drafted with the #1 pick in the Rule 5 draft from Cincinnati. He got hurt, never played for us, and was eventually returned to the Reds. His injury was severe enough that he was out of baseball after being drafted; he has no professional games after 2008. Verdict: failure.
Ricardo Nanita, selected in the minor league phase, played most of 2009, then went to the Mexican league, then got picked up by Toronto in minor league free agency and has been there ever since, playing all of 2013 in Buffalo. Verdict: failure.

The team lost two players in the minor league phase:

RHP Luis Ortega to Royals was picked up off the Nats rookie squad, pitched one more season for Kansas City’s rookie squad and was cut.
RHP Josh Perrault was picked up by the Orioles, who bounced him around their farm system for a couple of years before he retired in 2010.

2007 Rule 5 Draft

Matt Whitney: 1B/3B, Drafted and then eventually returned back to Cleveland, who eventually made the former 1st rounder a ML free agent and we signed him after the 2008 season. We cut him after the 2009 season and he retired after 2010. Verdict: failure.
Garrett Guzman: LF/RF: after Rule-5 selecting him, the team eventually traded a PTBNL for him to Minnesota, then we cut him outright and nobody picked him up. He played two years of Independent ball and was out of baseball after 2010. Guzman is more infamously known as the player who was caught having sex with an underage girl while playing for our AA team in Harrisburg in 2008, likely the reason why nobody picked him up after his DFA. Verdict: embarrassing failure.

The Nats lost one player of note in the minor league phase in this draft:

Brett Campbell was drafted by Milwaukee in the AAA phase of the rule-5 draft. Milwaukee released him in spring training of the subsequent 2008 season and Campbell never played another inning of pro baseball. This seems especially odd to me: he was drafted in 2004 and rose all the way through the Nats system to debut in the majors by Sept of 2006. He pitched in just two games in 2006, and returned to the minors in 2007. Was he hurt? He was only 26 when he apparently hung them up. Oddity.

2006 Rule 5 Draft

Jesus Flores, C, drafted from the New York Mets, stuck with the team all year despite having only played high-A ball in the minors. Despite his eventual injury issues that plagued him for the better part of 3 seasons, Flores remains the best example of a “found gold” prospect that can be had in the Rule 5 draft. After the Nats DFA’d him last off-season, he bounced around both LA and Tampa’s AAA teams in 2013 but did not appear in the majors. Verdict: success.
Levale Speigner RHP (a closer) was drafted from Minnesota and, as with Booker above, eventually was traded for by the Nats so they could keep him and stash him in the minors. After some awful outings for the big team, he passed through waivers mid 2008 and was released from AAA in 2008, bounced around a couple other organizations, and retired after 2010. Verdict: failure.

The Nats lost one player in this draft:

Alejandro Machada was drafted by Minnesota just a month after the Nats had re-signed him to a minor league contract. So Machada didn’t have to stay on their active roster. And indeed he didn’t; he was injured all of 2007 and stayed with Minnesota’s AAA team until 2009, never again broaching the majors.

2005 Rule 5 Draft

The Nats did not draft anyone, but had a player taken who went on a whirlwind tour of MLB organizations before getting returned mid 2006.

Chris Booker was rule-5 drafted by Detroit, who immediately sold him to Philadelphia, who then waived him in May of 2006 with the intent of returning him … except that Kansas City picked him up, hung onto him for a couple months and eventually returned him to Washington. The Nats eventually called him up but he was relatively ineffective and he washed out of the game (seemingly due to injuries) after 2008.

2004 Rule 5 Draft (ahead of the 2005 season)

Tony Blanco: 1B; drafted from Cincinnati. He batted .177 as a 1st baseman backup while eating a roster spot all season, then we cut him from AAA after 2007. He kicked around Colorado’s system for a year and has been playing in Japan ever since. Verdict: failure.
Tyrell Godwin: CF, drafted from Toronto. Prior to the 2005 season, the team traded another minor leaguer to keep his rights, so this really played out less like a Rule-5 pickup in that Godwin didn’t have to stick on the 25-man roster all year. He played a grand total of 3 games for the Nats, kicked around AAA for a while an hung them up in 2007. Verdict: failure.

Summary: we’ve drafted 11 guys in the MLB phase Rule 5 draft since 2005, and I’d classify 10 of the 11 draftees as eventual failures. Not a great track record. Plus its safe to say that most every player drafted FROM us has been a failure for the drafting team. Clearly the Rule 5 draft isn’t a great way to reliably find players. Why do we do so much analysis on it? I dunno, because its fun? Because its December and we’re desperate for Baseball news? Fair enough 🙂

Written by Todd Boss

December 9th, 2016 at 8:59 am

From Nats to Oblivion; Updated for 2015 season and 2016 Assignments

22 comments

Uggla will always have 13-12. Photo TV screenshot via natsenquirer.com

Note: this is a recurring post, and large chunks of the older material is recycled. I’ve updated the research for older players as needed, getting 2015 updates for everyone on this list still playing. See here for 2014’s version, 2013’s version, and 2012’s version of this post.

Even though I know most of this data is repeated from last year, I still find myself reading the whole way down just for a crazy trip down memory lane each time I do this post.

Background: many years ago (November 2010) Mark Zuckerman initially posted a fascinating analysis he titled “From Nats to Oblivion.” It chronicled the astoundingly high number of players that the early incarnations of the Nats were using who, once the Nats released them, never again appeared in a MLB game. I thought the analysis was so interesting that I kept up the same data and have been keeping it up-to-date with the whereabouts of Nats-to-Oblivion candidates ever since. So with apologies to Zuckerman for stealing his original idea, here’s an interesting visit to the Nats darker past.

It is nearly impossible for a team to field an entire year’s worth of players who will not fall into this “Oblivion” category. Every MLB team has guys playing out the string or near retirement, and every MLB team calls up guys through out the season from the minors who eventually show themselves as unable to compete on the MLB level and who never make it back. So a 0% oblivion measure isn’t a goal. The best this team has done is 4 players (the 2013 team). I don’t think the 2015 team will get that low.

For your reminiscing pleasure, here is the summary data updated to the 2014 team:

2015: 20 position, 24 pitcher, 44 total. 10/44 = 22.7% candidate ratio right now
2014: 22 position, 18 pitchers, 40 total. 5/40 = 12.5% candidate ratio right now
2013: 23 position, 21 pitchers, 44 total. 4/44 = 9% candidate ratio right now (thanks Natsochrist for the edit)
2012: 24 position, 19 pitchers, 43 total. 6/43 = 13.9% candidate ratio right now
2011: 20 position, 24 pitchers, 44 total. 6/44 = 13.6% candidate ratio
2010: 20 position, 26 pitchers, 46 total. 12/46 = 26.0% never appeared again
2009: 25 position, 30 pitchers, 55 total. 9/55 = 16.3% never appeared again
2008: 25 position, 25 pitchers, 50 total. 8/50 = 16% never appeared again
2007: 21 position, 26 pitchers, 47 total. 12/47 = 25.5% never appeared again
2006: 28 position, 29 pitchers, 57 total. 20/57 = 35% never appeared again
2005: 30 position, 25 pitchers, 55 total. 16/55 = 29% never appeared again

Look at the 2006 season; 35% of the players who played for the team that year never played another Major League game. That’s still astounding to me. Read on for a detailed look back at some of the very bad players that have put in significant time for this team.

2015: (9 candidates right now):

Total players used: 20 position, 24 pitcher, 44 total. 19/44 = 20.4% candidate ratio right now.

Here’s my entirely too early list of Nats to Oblivion candidates from the 2015 Nats. Odds are that this list will be halved by June 1 of 2016 season. The candidates are listed from most likely to least likely to stay on this list.

Names recently removed: Fister (signed a $7M deal with Houston for 2016). Thornton (MLFA deal with San Diego and made 25-man roster). Burriss: signed MLFA with Philly and lead-off against the Nats in their first visit to Philadelphia in the new season. Added Stammen when he failed to make Cleveland’s 25-man roster in 2016. Removed Solis when he got called up to cover for injury to Belisle. Removed Martin when he got called up briefly on 6/27/16. Removed de los Santos when he got waived, picked up by Cincinnati and appeared for them mid Sept 2016. Removed all our 2015 prospect-types who all got 2016 call-ups: Turner, Difo, Severino, Grace, Cole.

Dan Uggla: The Nats were probably his last stand chance in the majors; hit just .183 and was given just 17 ABs the last two months of the season. Seems unlikely to pick up with a team in 2016 and may be done professionally.
Reed Johnson: Got picked back up on a MLFA deal by Washington thanks to his utility capabilities, especially since he did show he was recovered from his 2015 injury. But age is working against him, and the team signed several utility guys to 40-man deals, making it hard on Johnson to get back onto the roster. Johnson did not make the team out of spring and was released on 4/2/16. He did not pick up with anyone for 2016 and at age 39 may be retired.
Casey Janssen: Signed a ML deal with San Diego for 2016 but was released in late Spring Training. Picked up with Boston in June of 2016, pitched a bit for their Short-A and AAA teams then was released in early August 2016. At age 35, he may be done.
Taylor Jordan: passed on the depth chart by guys getting signed (Scherzer), acquired in trade (Ross), and guys just being in the right place at the right time (Roark). Just like he saw time in 2015 in brief spurts, he likely will again in 2016, but seems like a long shot to be a permanent part of this franchise’ rotation. In June of 2016, he had a second TJ surgery … and then was released by the club on 6/28/16 to correspond to the Giolito contract addition. Man, that seems kind of cold to release a guy just after surgery, but his odds of making it back to the majors just took a significant hit.
David Carpenter: shoulder injury, DFA’d, elected free agency and quickly signed a ML deal with Atlanta for 2016. However he was cut after just a handful of spring training games; maybe his injury is worse than we thought. Picked backup on a ML deal with the Los Angeles Angels in May 2016 (which makes sense since they’ve lost most of their pitchers). Was released from AAA Salt Lake in Mid June 2016 and did not pick back up. May be finished.
Taylor Hill: Hill was DFA’d to make room for January 2016 signings and was outrighted to AAA, so he faces longer odds to get back to the majors at this point. If it comes to it, would you rather go with Hill or the likes of Voth or Giolito at this point? Hill finished out the year for AAA Syracuse with a 4.60 ERA in 27 starts, but I’d have to say he’s just an innings-eater/org guy now.
Tyler Moore; hit just .203 in 2015 yet stayed on the active roster the whole year thanks to our ridiculous number of injuries. A DFA candidate who never has come close to his rookie year production and now has a career .228 BA in 649 PAs. Signed for 2016, but then waived, outrighted to AAA and traded to Atlanta towards the end of spring training. Moore missed most of the 2016 season for AAA Gwinnett with injury and did not appear in the majors.
Craig Stammen: non-tendered after injuring his arm and missing most of 2015; signed a ML deal with Cleveland in 2016 and did not make the team out of camp. Immediately sent to the AAA D/L list. He missed a couple of months, rehabbed in AA and spent the rest of the year for Cleveland’s AAA team in Columbus.
Aaron Barrett: the odds of him turning into Cole Kimball seems small; an elbow is not a shoulder. But until he recovers from his 2015 surgery, he’s an Oblivion candidate. He’ll sit on the 60-day D/L for most of 2016. In June of 2016, he had a major set-back in his TJ recovery, fracturing his elbow. This will require another visit to Dr. James Andrews and another surgery.

Note: the one guy DFA’d mid-season 2015 by the Nats (Xavier Cedeno) got purchased by the Dodgers, who then sold him to the Rays 5 days later … and he had 61 appearances with a 2.09 ERA for Tampa Bay this year. Do you think maybe the team gave up on him too soon?

Outlook for 2015 Oblivion candidates: Most of these guys seem like they have little shot of re-gaining a MLB spot; the first 5 guys are likely retired at this point, the next three (Hill, Moore, Stammen) are off 40-mans and not really pushing for a promotion with their AAA stats, and Barrett faces another year of elbow surgery recovery.

Favorite Nats to Oblivion Story: Dan Uggla. Uggla was released out of a $13M/year contract from Atlanta and the Nats picked him up for 2015, paying just a MLB minimum on him as middle infield cover/lottery ticket. Well, Uggla’s luck turned out pretty well as injuries shredded the Nats lineup and Uggla earned a 25-man roster spot. He played sparingly throughout April but had a massive homer in the epic April 28th come-from-behind 13-12 win over Atlanta, which sparked the Nats (who were just 7-13 at the time) to a 21-6 run. It was one of just two homers Uggla hit on the year (the other in the last game of the season/his career), and Uggla played less and less as the team got healthier. For the year he hit just .183, which was in line with what he had hit the prior to years, and he never got picked up after his “last hurrah” season. Uggla never seemed to recover from two separate concussions he suffered from HBPs (one in July 2012, another in ST 2013), never again hitting even the meager .220 he managed in 2012.

2014 (5 remaining candidates right now):

Total Players used: 22 position, 18 pitchers, 40 total. 5/40 = 12.5% candidate ratio right now

Candidates:

Greg Dobbs: FA after 2014, retired in May 2015 when he didn’t catch on with a new club.
Nate McLouth, who signed an ill-advised 2-year deal to be our “veteran 4th outfielder” behind Denard Span … but who struggled in 2014 and then missed the entirety of 2015. The team bought out his 2016 option and as of this writing has not signed with a new team (not even a minor league deal). May have played his way out of the game. (Thanks to Karl in the comments for the reminder on McLouth).
Jeff Kobernus: Released by the team Mar 2015, played the rest of 2015 with SF’s A+ club in San Jose, MLFA for 2016. He never signed with anyone in 2016 and may be finished.
Scott Hairston: FA after 2014, sat out 2015. Signed for Chicago White Sox for 2016, but then was cut on 3/29/16. He did not pick back up with anyone for 2016, and at age 36 could be forced into retirement.
Nate Schierholtz: FA after 2014, signed w/ Texas but did not stay with club out of spring training. Played 2015 in Japan, then signed as a MLFA with Detroit in Dec 2015. Starting in AAA for Detroit 2016 but not a 40-man player. Subsequently released on 5/23/16 after hitting .246, did not pick back up for the rest of 2016. He’s only 32, so he may still give it a shot in 2017.

Names removed since the last post: Kevin Frandsen (signed w/ SFG and appeared in 7 games in 2015), Ryan Mattheus (got one game with LAA, waived, then pitched the whole of 2015 in Cincinnati’s bullpen), Rafael Soriano (who finally signed with the Cubs in June but had just 6 appearances before getting released on 9/4/15, and Taylor Hill (who had 12IP across 6 games for the Nats in 2015). Added Nate McLouth after Karl noticed he was missing in the comments.

Outlook for 2014 Oblivion candidates: after a rough 2016 for all these players, only Schierholz really seems like he has a shot at even a ST invite for 2017. The rest are likely done.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: I’ll go with Kobernus at this point, if only because he went to my dad’s Alma Mater (Cal-Berkeley) at a time where the program was threatened with the Axe (eventually donations resurrected the program in 2011). He’s an example of an odd fascination the Nats seem to have with good field-no hit upper round draft picks from Cal (see also Renda, Tony).

2013 (4 Candidates):

Total Players used: 23 position, 21 pitchers, 44 total. 4/44 = 9% candidate ratio right now (thanks Natsochrist for the edit)

Current Candidates

Chad Tracy: MLFA signed w/ LA Angels for spring 2014, cut, retired 4/25/14.
Yunesky Maya; MLFA with Atlanta AAA for 2014, then went to Korea where he got pounded for two seasons. Just signed a MLFA deal with Los Angeles Angels for 2016 and is pitching for AAA Salt Lake. He strained his elbow and missed a big chunk of the 2016 season, which was a missed opportunity for Maya as the Angels had very little SP depth.
Chris Marrero: MLFA, signed w/ Baltimore AAA 2014, played briefly for the White Sox’s AAA affiliate in 2015. He’s still out there, playing in the 2015 Venezuelan winter league. Signed back with Boston’s AAA affiliate for 2016. He had a strong 2016 season for Pawtucket, hitting 23 homers but did not get called up.
Erik Davis; Nats AAA 2014 60 day D/L Tommy John surgery 2014, still on Nats D/L 2015. Outrighted off the 40-man in January 2016, assigned to AAA. Posted a 4.13 ERA in a full year of middle relief for Syracuse, with excellent K/9 ratios, but did not merit a 9/1 call up.

Updates since last post: removed Jhonatan Solano went 1-20 for Miami in 2015 and may be a “Marlins to Oblivion” candidate going forward.

Outlook for 2013 Oblivion candidates: The 4 remaining guys face uphill climbs; only Davis remains with the Nationals but none are on 40-man rosters. Maya and Marrero are hanging on though and may get shots based on decent 2016 seasons in AAA.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Yunesky Maya, who was Mike Rizzo‘s first foray into the Cuban exile market. Signed to a 4yr/$8M deal, he was given several shots at the majors and never could capitalize. He arrived in the US with a wide arsenal of pitches but not a lot of swing-and-miss talent, and he ended up basically being a AAA starter. He spent the last three seasons as Syracuse’s lead starter (getting 22, 28 and 24 starts there in-between infrequent call-ups) and ended up with just one career MLB win for his $8M salary (making his one of the worst dollars-per-win contracts ever … even if it was “just” $8M). This whole paragraph is assuming that Maya never makes it back to the majors … but based on what he’s shown thus far combined with his advancing age, that seems like a likely end-result for the Cuban starter. As we speak, he has given up on minor league ball and has decamped for Korea, where he’s shown some good stats in limited appearances.

2012 (6 candidates)

Total Players used: 24 position, 19 pitchers, 43 total. 6/43 = 13.9% candidate ratio right now

Candidates

Brad Lidge: Retired post 2012.
Christian Garcia: got added to the 40-man roster down the stretch of 2012 and provided some electric relief out of the pen, even making the playoff roster. Got hurt in ST 2013, went to the 60-day D/L, still hurt in 2014, and released in June of that year. Garcia never had bad stats … just too many injuries that he couldn’t overcome. (Thanks to commenter Justin for this reminder!)
Ryan Perry: Wash AAA/AA 2013, 2014, released by Washington in 2014, signed back with Detroit and played 2014-2015 with their AAA affiliate. Released mid 2015 by Toledo and never signed on again for 2015 or 2016; may be done.
Jesus Flores; signed ML deal with Los Angeles Dodgers for 2013, was with TB, KC for 2014, Miami AAA for 2015, but was released in July 2015 and never re-signed. Played Winter Ball 2015 never signed for 2016; may be done.
Brett Carroll: signed ML deal w/ Pittsburgh for 2013, Tor for 2014. Never signed for 2015, looks done.
Carlos Maldonado: Wash AAA 2013. Played Venezuelan Winter Ball for a number of years, then after no US-based organized ball for 2 seasons signed a ML deal with Texas in 2015 …and made their AA team as a 37-yr old. Still plugging away. In 2016 Maldonado again was assigned to Frisco, but was immediately put on the D/L and never appeared. In fact, he doesn’t even have a minor league at bat since 2013; is he just on a roster to serve as a bullpen catcher?

Updates in last 12 months: Updates for Maldonado, who I can’t believe is still playing in the bus leagues at age 37. Added Christian Garcia after Justin noticed he was missing in the comments.

Outlook for 2012 Oblivion candidates: Only Maldonado seems like he’s still technically “active,” but as a 38-yr old catcher who hasn’t even had an at-bat since 2013 the odds of him making it back are nil. The book seems closed on 2012.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Brad Lidge, who gave it one last shot and failed and didn’t keep trying. Sometimes, when you lose your stuff, its gone and gone fast. I’ll readily admit I thought the signing was a great one when it occurred but it just didn’t work out. I really hoped that Lidge would be a serviceable 7th inning guy and mentor to Drew Storen and Tyler Clippard, being one of the great closers of his day. It didn’t work out that way: the Nats released him on June 25th and he hung ’em up.

2011 (6 candidates)

Total Players used: 20 position, 24 pitchers, 44 total. 6/44 = 13.6% candidate ratio right now…

Candidates

Ivan Rodriguez – retired after 2011; will appear on the 2017 Hall-of-Fame Ballot with 1st ballot stats but a PED cloud over his head.
Matt Stairs — retired after 2011.
Alex Cora — retired after 2011, now the General Manager of a Puerto Rican Winter League team.
Cole Kimball — Nats 60-day DL in 2012, XST in 2013, DFA’d off 40-man roster. 2014 indy, NYY AA team. Threw 3.2 Innings of 14-ERA ball in the Mexican summer league in 2015. Does not seem to be on any 2016 rosters; may be done.
Brian Broderick — Stl AAA, waived now Nats AAA in 2012, AA in 2013. Indy ball 2014, Kansas City AAA 2015, where he had a pretty good season. He elected MLFA … and (oddly?) did not get picked up for 2016. May be done.
Atahualpa Severino — Nats AAA, DFA’d off 40-man in 2012, signed w/ KC for 2013, Atl AAA in 2014, LAA AAA in 2015 but he got cut and ended the year in the Mexican league. For 2016 he is again in the Mexican League, and had a strong season for Monterrey. Perhaps he gets another shot some-day. There’s always people looking for loogies.

Changes in the last 12 months: none other than 2016 assignment updates; nobody’s gotten off this list in a while.

Outlook for 2011 Oblivion candidates: Just one guy still hanging on: Severino continues to throw albeit in his home country’s unaffiliated Mexican league.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Matt Stairs: He made the 2011 roster despite having almost no defensive capabilities and, as it soon became evident, almost no remaining abilities at the plate. He somehow hung onto his roster spot until August 1st despite having just one extra base hit in 74 at-bats on the year. I remember one game in particular; we were at the stadium going against the hated Phillies and they left Roy Halladay in to attempt to finish a shutout with a 3-0 lead (Game was on 4/13/11). Nats rally, score 2 runs to make it 3-2. Stairs comes up pinch hitting for Jerry Hairston with guys on 1st and 2nd with one out; he promptly watches three straight fastballs go right down the middle of the plate without moving his bat. I’ve never been so p*ssed at a player at the ball-park. Fellow Nats-to-Oblivion candidate Ivan Rodriguez then promptly struck out on 3 pitches as well, looking strike 3 into the mitt and then arguing vehemently with the ump over the game-ending call which gave Halladay the complete game victory. Those were the good ole days.

2010 (12 players)

Total Players used: 20 position, 26 pitchers, 46 total. 12/46 = 26.0% never appeared again

Players:

Kevin Mench; retired after 2010
Jamie Burke; retired after 2010
Luis Atilano: in CIN org, AAA in 2012, never signed for 2013, out of baseball.
Scott Olsen; in CWS org, AAA 2012, never signed for 2013, out of baseball.
Tyler Walker; indy league 2011, never signed for 2012, out of baseball.
Matt Chico; indy league 2012, never signed for 2013, out of baseball.
Garrett Mock: Houston AAA 2012, AZ AAA for 2013. Not signed for 2014
Jason Bergmann: indy 2011, Col AAA 2012, Indy again in 2013, KC AA. Not signed for 2014.
Jesse English; indy league 2011, 2012. Mexican League 2013, Indy ball 2014 but struggled, no 2015 stats.
Joe Bisenius; in Mexico 2011-12, Atl AA/AAA 2013, indy/mexican league 2014 but struggled, no 2015 stats.
JD Martin; in MIA org AAA 2012, in TB AAA 2013, in Korea 2014 but struggled, no 2015 stats. 2016 MLFA signing back with the team and re-making himself as a knuckleballer. Why not right?
Willy Taveras; played AAA for Col in 2011, retired prior to 2012, back with KC AAA 2013. Mexican league 2014, 2015, Indy ball in 2015. He re-signed with Pueblo in the Mexican league for 2016 and played a full season, hitting .325.

Changes in last 12 months: none.

Outlook for 2010 Oblivion candidates: Two active players in the minors; Taveras and Martin. Martin seems likely to get another MLFA contract in 2017 to see if he can pan out as a knuckleballer.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Jamie Burke: The 2009 Nats were so thin at Catcher by the end of the season that we literally bought a spare catcher in Burke from Seattle so we could have some coverage at the end of the season. Burke re-signed on for 2010 and appeared in exactly one MLB game. He was released after the season and retired.

2009 (9 players)

Total Players used: 25 position, 30 pitchers, 55 total. 9/55 = 16.3% never appeared again

Players:

Elijah Dukes: released and never picked up for 2010. Arrested in 2011, 2012, out of baseball.
Alex Cintron; playing in Mexico 2012, nothing in 2013
Jorge Padilla; in SD org, AAA in 2012, nothing in 2013
Ron Villone, AAA all of 2010, 2011 playing indy ball, retired prior to 2012. He was scheduled to appear on the 2015 Hall of Fame ballot but was removed for some reason. Remains a pitching coach for the Cubs organization.
Julian Tavarez; retired after getting DFA’d in July 2009
Mike Hinckley: Tor org in 2011, retired prior to 2012
Steven Shell; KC org in 2011, retired prior to 2012
Victor Garate; MIL org and Indy ball in 2012, Mexican league 2013, 2014. Went to Japan for 2015 and had a great season. Back on the continent and pitching in the Mexican League for 2016; had 10 starts for Saltillo and was released. May be done.
Zack Segovia; in Det org AA in 2012, Mexican league/Indy ball 2013, Mexican League 2014. Picked up with San Diego’s AAA for 2015 but got hit. Pitching in the Mexican League for 2016 and had decent numbers as a middle reliever, but was released in June.

Changes in last 12 months: none.

Outlook for 2009 Oblivion candidates: Still a couple guys active here, both in the Mexican league. Not likely to see any changes going forward.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Ron Villone, who proved that a crafty lefty with a halfway decent fastball can have a long career in this game. He had 63 appearances at age 39 for the 2009 Nats and got re-signed for 2010. He didn’t make the team though, labored in Syracuse the whole season and was released. Despite being 41 years old, he headed to Indy ball for one last shot but washed out after just a few outings in 2011.

It wouldn’t be a retrospective on poor Nats players if we didn’t briefly talk about Elijah Dukes though. I think its safe to assume that he’s the only guy on this list that has served more time in jail than has played in the minor leagues, attempting to get back to the show.

2008 (8 players)

Total Players used: 25 position, 25 pitchers, 50 total. 8/50 = 16% never appeared again

Players:

Kory Casto; 2009 AAA, 2010 in Ariz AA, retired.
Dmitri Young: some rehab in low minors 2009, retired.
Rob Mackowiak: 2009: some indy, bounced around AAA, that’s it.
Johnny Estrada; quit after 2008 mid-season release.
Odalis Perez; refused his 2009 contract, never resigned (see below)
Levale Speigner; 2009 in Florida’s AA/AAA, then 2010 in Seattle AAA. done.
Ray King; retired after 2008
Chris Schroder; 2009, 2010 bounced around AAA with Oakland,Florida (now Miami).

Changes in last 12 months: none.

Outlook for 2008 Oblivion candidates: every remaining candidate is now out of baseball.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Odalis Perez, though I’m tempted to say either Mackowiak or Estrada, possibly the two worst FA signings of the whole Jim Bowden era (and that’s saying something). But nothing beats the Perez story. He was the Nats Opening Day Starter in 2008, and he was the first guy to get a start in the new Nationals Stadium. He pitched decently enough; in 30 starts he was 7-12 with a 4.34 ERA and a 99 ERA+ for a god-awful team. But apparently he got really pissed when the team only offered him a non-guaranteed Minor League deal for 2009. So he held out, the Nats said “fine with us” and released him, and nobody else picked him up. And he never played another game. I’m not sure if that was a sign that he was just that bad (not one team wanted to even give an opening day starter a look the subsequent year?), or if there was some sort of MLB general manager omerta that conspired against him. Either way, Perez never played again, not even in Winter Leagues as far as I could find. Sometimes a player has to swallow his pride, and Perez apparently could not.

2007 (12 players)

Total Players used: 21 position, 26 pitchers, 47 total. 12/47 = 25.5% never appeared again

Players:

Nook Logan; indy league 2008, 2010.
Robert Fick: Cut from the Padres in ST 2008, full year indy league 2009, retired.
D’Angelo Jimenez: AAA all of 2008, 2009. Mexican league and Indy league 2010-2012
Tony Batista: Wash AAA 2008, then released
Michael Restovich: 2008 in Japan, AAA 2009-2011, retired
Brandon Watson: AAA 2008-9, indy league 2011, retired.
Mike Bacsik: 2008 AAA, 2011 indy league, now a broadcaster.
Jason Simontacchi; 2008 indy league, 2010 again.
John Patterson; cut in ST 2008, immediately signed w/ Texas but never played again.
Ryan Wagner: AAA 2008-9, released and presumably retired.
Arnie Munoz; went to mexican league, retired > 2010
Chris Booker: AAA in 2008, then retired/released.

Changes in last 12 months: none

Outlook for 2007 Oblivion candidates: every remaining candidate is now out of baseball.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Mike Bacsik, who was destined to be a career 4-A guy before Washington picked him up and gave him 20 starts in 2007. Bacsik was on his 6th minor league organization when he arrived in Syracuse and pitched his way up to the major leagues. He was overmatched badly; he had a 5.11 ERA and just a 3.4 K/9 rate. But he did get his moment in the headlines by giving up Barry Bonds‘ 756th career homer one night in San Francisco in August. Contrary to accusations on the topic, I do not believe Bacsik “served up” the homer. If you check the play index, Bonds hit the 7th pitch of the at-bat in a 3-2 count for that homer. Bacsik didn’t purposely give up a homer on the 7th pitch of an at-bat; he just ran out of pitches to show Bonds that weren’t going to get pulverized.

A quick comment though on John Patterson: I remember being absolutely shocked at his release in 2008’s spring training. He was cut on 3/20/08, right in the middle of Spring Training with no warning and having just thrown his Grapefruit innings. He was healthy, recovered from surgery, ready to be the ace of that staff and start showing off the potential that he showed in 2005 (you know, when he 4-hit the Dodgers with 13 punch outs and posted the best Game-Score performance in Nats history). He signed a ML deal with Texas after his release by the Nats, but he couldn’t answer the call and never appeared again, getting released in mid May. I guess his third arm surgery in 7 years just left him unable to compete at any level and he hung ’em up.

2006 (20 players)

Total Players used: 28 position, 29 pitchers, 57 total. 20/57 = 35% never appeared again

Damian Jackson; dnp 2007, indy league 2008-9
Bernie Castro: AAA all of 2007, 8 then retired.
Alex Escobar: Wash minors 2007-8, then retired.
Brandon Harper: Wash AAA all of 2007, then released/retired.
Wiki Gonzalez: CWS AAA all of 2007, indy league 2008, retired.
Henry Mateo: AAA or Indy league 2007-2009, Mexican league from 2010-2013
George Lombard: AAA 2007-9, some indy league, retired.
Mike Vento: 2007 Wash AAA, indy league 2008, back with Syracuse 2009, retired.
Melvin Dorta; various minor leagues 2007-2010, indy league 2011, retired.
Luis Matos: AAA 2007, Mexican League 2008-2012. ? 2013 and done.
Pedro Astacio; retired after 2006
Felix Rodriguez: dnp 2007, indy league 2008-9, retired.
Zach Day: AAA 2007, briefly A+ 2008, retired.
Beltran Perez; wash minors AA/AAA 2007-8, released and never played again.
Joey Eischen; released off of Washington and retired.
Travis Hughes; AAA in 2007, played in Japan 2008, indy leagues 2009, 2011.
Ryan Drese: various minor leagues 2007-8, indy league 2009-2010, Baltimore AAA 2011, released/retired.
Kevin Gryboski: AAA 2007-2008, retired/released.
Brett Campbell: Wash AA 2007, released/retired.
Santiago Ramirez: Japan in 2007, Mexican league 2008, indy 2009, retired.

Changes in last 12 months: none

Outlook for 2006 Oblivion candidates: every remaining candidate is now out of baseball.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Joey Eischen, who bounced around the league in his 20s before settling in Montreal and moving south with the team. He was known to be a “character” in the clubhouse and to give good quotes to reporters (google “Joey Eischen quotes” and you’ll find some of his classics). By 2006 though the years had taken their toll on his shoulder; he had 19 walks in 14 2/3 innings through the end of May had blown his rotator cuff. The team put him on the 60 day D/L and called up Virginia-native Bill Bray. Eischen never got off that D/L; he was released in the off-season and never played again. He has been a pitching coach in the Colorado system since 2010.

2005 (16 players)

Total Players used: 30 position, 25 pitchers, 55 total. 16/55 = 29% never appeared again

Players:

Carlos Baerga; retired after 2005
Junior Spivey: bounced around AAA 2006-7, indy ball in 2009, retired.
Wil Cordero; released mid 2005, signed on with the NY Mets but never made it out of AAA. Retired after 2005.
Deivi Cruz; released after 2005, cut from St. Louis 2006 ST, played indy ball, retired.
Jeffrey Hammonds; retired in June 2005 mid-season.
J.J. Davis: Traded to Colorado as part of the Preston Wilson deal, sent to Colorado’s AAA, then released after the season and never played again.
Rick Short; Granted FA after the 2005 season to play in Japan, played there til 2009.
Kenny Kelly; AAA in 2006 and 2007, released and retired.
Keith Osik; a backup catcher, got 4 ABs in 2005, released and retired.
Tyrell Godwin; after just three MLB at-bats in 2005, spent all of 2006 and 2007 in AAA, released and retired.
T.J. Tucker; released after 2005, tried one year of indy ball in 2008, retired.
Joe Horgan; released after 2005, played one year of AAA with Florida, released, retired.
Matt White; AAA in 2006-7, Japan 2007-8, tried indy ball in 2010, hung ’em up.
C.J. Nitkowski; AAA in 2006, then went to Japan 2007-8, Korea 2009-10, back with the Mets AAA team in July 2012. Not signed for 2013. Was a blow-hard “I’m an ex baseball player and know more than you” Podcast host for Fox Sports with Rob Neyer until their cancellation. Made news in 2015 for his article on the Bryce Harper/Jonathan Papelbon where he quoted a number of anonymous MLBers who said that (paraphrasing) “Harper had it coming.”
Antonio Osuna: dnp in 2006, Mexican league 2007-9.
Tony Blanco; Nats minor leagues 2006-7, Colorado AA in 2008, in Japan from 2009-present. Hit 41 homers in 2013 for Yokohama but struggled in 2015, but got picked up by Orix and is on their 2016 roster.

Changes in last 12 months: none

Outlook for 2005 Oblivion candidates: Tony Blanco is still playing in Japan, entering his 8th pro season there in 2016.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Rick Short, who got his MLB debut at the age of 32, after 11 very long seasons in the minors with many different teams. He got a couple of call-ups in June and July to provide cover, and then played out the string after a Sept 1 roster expansion call-up. In that off-season, he returned to Japan (where he’d played one full season prior), and played four more years in the Japanese League and retired in 2009.

Though it merits talking about a couple other guys here. Tony Blanco; he was a rule-5 draftee who the Nats carried the whole of 2005 so they could keep his rights. He was awful; he had a .177 batting average as the 25th guy off the bench. In 2006 he couldn’t even cut it in AA and played most of the year in High-A. After 2007 the Nats summarily released him from their minor league organization altogether. He found his calling though; he signed on in Japan in 2009 at age 27 and continues to play there today. You have to wonder if he may very well earn another MLB shot.

Jeffrey Hammonds was well known to Washington baseball fans by virtue of his pedigree with our northern neighbors in Baltimore; he was a 1st round draft pick in 1992 out of Stanford, broke in with the MLB team the following year and was a role player on the powerhouse Baltimore teams of the mid 1990s. He bounced around the league afterwards though, signing on with the newly relocated Washington franchise for the 2005 debut season but he hung ’em up after a slow start here. He was only 34 when he retired.

Written by Todd Boss

April 18th, 2016 at 10:36 am

Nats Rule-5 Draft History; updated for 2015

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Jesus Flores remains our most successful (only successful) Rule 5 Draftee. Photo Toni Sandys/Washington Post

The Nats for years were heavy participants in the Rule-5 draft, thanks to some pretty awful teams and some shrewd scouting. I first did this history post in November 2011, updating in in January of 2014 and here I update it for the last couple of draft results and drafted player disposition updated for the latest season.

Borrowing a chunk of the text for the previous years from the previous post, here’s a list of the Rule 5 drafts since 2005, with our players taken/received noted and with some thoughts on how the player turned out for either side. Even though there wasn’t much 2015 Rule 5 action for the team, I’ve added a bunch of updates for all the recently involved players, updating their career dispositions.

Note: this post used to be to pass judgement on our Rule-5 picks, so when you see “Verdict: Failure” that’s what it means. Its been so long since we tried to draft someone that I forgot what it was like.

2015 Rule 5 Draft (ahead of the 2016 season)

What just occurred on 12/10/15. The Nationals did not take anyone in the major league phase, nor did they have anyone taken.

In the minor league phase, the Nationals selected 3B Zack Cox from the Miami organization. He’s entering his age 27 season, is a former 1st round pick and has bounced around AA and AAA the last four seasons. I’m calling him “Anthony Rendon” insurance for 2016.

These minor league acquisitions are essentially $12,000 purchases and the Nats now own these contract; I’m not entirely clear on the rules that drive them, nor how the players are determined to be eligible.

2014 Rule 5 Draft (ahead of the 2015 season)

For the first time since their arrival in DC, the Washington Nationals neither took a player in Rule-5 nor had one taken.

2013 Rule 5 Draft (ahead of the 2014 season)

The team did not select anyone in the major league phase. We did lose one player in the MLB phase:

C Adrian Nieto was the 2nd overall pick in the major league phase, by the Chicago White Sox. As commenters at the time noted, it seemed like an odd pick for the White Sox, who had a couple of younger developing catchers in their system. Meanwhile Nieto had never played above A-ball but did hit .285/.373/.449 prior to the 2014 season. Those are pretty good numbers for a catcher … even if he’s an old 24 in A-Ball. I didn’t even mention him in my own pre-Rule5 analysis piece at the time, but amazingly he stuck on the White Sox roster for the entire 2014 season, hitting .236/.296/.340. The White Sox sent him to AA for 2015, he elected FA (presumably after being DFA’d) and signed as a MLFA with Miami for 2016. Given the struggles of Jose Lobaton this past year, I’m slightly surprised he didn’t consider coming back to his original franchise. Or, perhaps more to the point, knowing what I know about his dealings with the Nats front office over the years … perhaps I’m not (his agent Joshua Kusnick is a frequent guest on the NatsGM podcast, hosted by Ryan Sullivan).

In the minor league phase, the Nats took a couple of players for organizational depth: Theo Bowe, a AA outfielder from Cincinnati and Martires Arias, a low-A right-hander from the New York Mets. Neither player really panned out: Bowe was left in XST the entire year and Arias was released before the season started.

2012 Rule 5 Draft

Again, the team did not select anyone but got poached for four players in the major and minor phase.

LHP Danny Rosenbaum was drafted by Colorado to take part in their unique rotation experiment (where guys work up to a certain pitch count each night). Rosenbaum didn’t make the Rockie’s pitching staff out of spring training (somewhat an indictment of Rosenbaum’s skills; Colorado’s rotation was one of the worst in the majors in 2013) and he was returned to Nats. Rosenbaum toiled in AAA for the Nats for the 2013 full season. He was the AAA opening day starter in 2014 but blew his UCL and had TJ Surgery. In Jan 2015 the team flipped him to Boston for Dan Butler, and he got roughed up in Boston’s system (0-8, 5.81 ERA). As far as I can tell he’s still in the Boston organization, perhaps for one more year to see if he pans out.
Utility player Jeff Kobernus was drafted by the Boston Red Sox, traded to Tigers and then eventually returned to Nats. Kobernus turned out to be quite the speedster, stealing nearly a base every other game in the minors and earned a call-up to the big team in 2013. He struggled with injury, spending a chunk of 2014 on the 60 day D/L and had just a handful of MLB atbats. The team released him mid spring training 2015, he picked up with the San Francisco organization and played near his home town in San Jose in 2015, struggling in High-A ball.
In the minor league phase, Nats draft bust Jack McGeary was taken by the Red Sox. He threw 21 ineffective innings in short-A and low-A for Boston in 2013. He’s from Boston, so it was a nice gesture, but it just doesn’t look like he’s ever going to recover from his arm issues. Hey, at least he got his Stanford education and his bonus money. He signed as a MLFA with the Los Angeles Dodgers organization for 2014, struggled again in A-ball, and did not sign for 2015.
The Dodgers poached Hector Nelo from the Nats AA team and stuck him on their own AA team … where he promptly made the all-star game again and had another excellent season. I’ll be honest; I do not know the minor league rule-5 protection rules, but I wonder why an all-star player was exposed, no matter what his age. Nelo struggled in 2014, was released and looks like he’s out of affiliated ball. So perhaps the team was a year early but still right in exposing him to Rule 5.

2011 Rule 5 Draft

The Nats did not take anyone for the first time in years, but had two players themselves taken. Neither player drafted was a surprise; I posted at the time that I thought both these players should have been protected.

Brad Meyers (RH starting pitcher) was drafted by the New York Yankees, but he suffered an injury in spring training and was DL’d all year. He was returned to the Nats and subsequently missed all of 2013 too. I listed him as a “release candidate” in my 2014 rotation projections, not knowing if he was healthy or if he could win a AAA rotation spot that year; he ended up making 6 starts in AA and was released. He’s now out of baseball.
Erik Komatsu was drafted by St. Louis (in retaliation for our taking Broderick the previous year?), made their 2012 opening day roster, played for a while before being waived, got picked up by Minnesota, and by Memorial Day was returned to Washington in a whirlwind set of transactions. He got hurt in 2013 and played just a few games for the Nats AA and AAA teams, then was released on 5/9/14. He signed immediately with the Angels, bounced to Milwaukee, was a MLFA after the season and did not play in organized ball in 2015.

2010 Rule 5 Draft

Elvin Ramirez, RH reliever, drafted from the New York Mets: he was injured in spring training and spent the entirety of the season on the DL. Interestingly, the team returned him to New York in October, long before they needed to, and with New York in 2012 he made his way to the majors for some appearances. The Mets eventually sold him to the Angels, then he bounced around in MLFA to Pittsburgh and Cincinnati, and in 2015 was playing in the Mexican league. Verdict: impatience leading to failure.
Brian Broderick, RH Starting Pitcher, Drafted from St. Louis and stuck into the 2011′s bullpen as the long-man/mop-up guy. He was awful, he was costing the team wins, and was eventually returned to St. Louis before May was out. However, St. Louis waived him towards the end of 2012 and we picked him back up. I projected him to be one of our AAA starters in 2013 but he struggled and ended the season in AA and was cut loose. He pitched in Indy ball in 2014, well enough to get a MLFA contract in 2015, spending the whole year in the Royal’s AAA team. He’s still hanging in there. Verdict: failure for the Nats, jury still out for the player.

The team lost one player in the 2010 draft:

The Phillies drafted Michael Martinez away from the Nats, and he stuck on their roster as a backup middle infielder. His batting lines were awful though, and the Nats clearly had depth at middle infield at the time, so losing this player was not that big of a deal. Martinez has continued to hit sub .200 but has bounced from Philly to Pittsburgh to Cleveland, splitting time between AAA and the major league rosters providing MIF cover.

2009 Rule 5 Draft

Jamie Hoffman; OF, Drafted with the #1 pick in the Rule 5 draft from Los Angeles Dodgers and immediately traded for Brian Bruney in a pre-arranged deal. NY returned him to the Dodgers later that spring. Bruney, meanwhile, immediately went to arbitration and lost with the team in the spring of 2010, was awful out of the gate, and the team outright released him before the end of May. Verdict: failure, all the way around this transaction.

The team lost one player in this draft:

Zech Zinicola was drafted away from us by Toronto, who eventually returned him to the Nats without any Toronto appearances. His selection was probably due to Dana Brown‘s hiring in Toronto, going from Washington’s Scouting Director to being a special assistant to the GM in Toronto. Zinicola remained in our farm system until 2013, when he was released.

2008 Rule 5 Draft

Terrell Young: Drafted with the #1 pick in the Rule 5 draft from Cincinnati. He got hurt, never played for us, and was eventually returned to the Reds. His injury was severe enough that he was out of baseball after being drafted; he has no professional games after 2008. Verdict: failure.
Ricardo Nanita, selected in the minor league phase, played most of 2009, then went to the Mexican league, then got picked up by Toronto in minor league free agency and has been there ever since, playing all of 2013 in Buffalo. Verdict: failure.

The team lost two players in the minor league phase:

RHP Luis Ortega to Royals was picked up off the Nats rookie squad, pitched one more season for Kansas City’s rookie squad and was cut.
RHP Josh Perrault was picked up by the Orioles, who bounced him around their farm system for a couple of years before he retired in 2010.

2007 Rule 5 Draft

Matt Whitney: 1B/3B, Drafted and then eventually returned back to Cleveland, who eventually made the former 1st rounder a ML free agent and we signed him after the 2008 season. We cut him after the 2009 season and he retired after 2010. Verdict: failure.
Garrett Guzman: LF/RF: after Rule-5 selecting him, the team eventually traded a PTBNL for him to Minnesota, then we cut him outright and nobody picked him up. He played two years of Independent ball and was out of baseball after 2010. Guzman is more infamously known as the player who was caught having sex with an underage girl while playing for our AA team in Harrisburg in 2008, likely the reason why nobody picked him up after his DFA. Verdict: embarrassing failure.

The Nats lost one player of note in the minor league phase in this draft:

Brett Campbell was drafted by Milwaukee in the AAA phase of the rule-5 draft. Milwaukee released him in spring training of the subsequent 2008 season and Campbell never played another inning of pro baseball. This seems especially odd to me: he was drafted in 2004 and rose all the way through the Nats system to debut in the majors by Sept of 2006. He pitched in just two games in 2006, and returned to the minors in 2007. Was he hurt? He was only 26 when he apparently hung them up. Oddity.

2006 Rule 5 Draft

Jesus Flores, C, drafted from the New York Mets, stuck with the team all year despite having only played high-A ball in the minors. Despite his eventual injury issues that plagued him for the better part of 3 seasons, Flores remains the best example of a “found gold” prospect that can be had in the Rule 5 draft. After the Nats DFA’d him last off-season, he bounced around both LA and Tampa’s AAA teams in 2013 but did not appear in the majors. Verdict: success.
Levale Speigner RHP (a closer) was drafted from Minnesota and, as with Booker above, eventually was traded for by the Nats so they could keep him and stash him in the minors. After some awful outings for the big team, he passed through waivers mid 2008 and was released from AAA in 2008, bounced around a couple other organizations, and retired after 2010. Verdict: failure.

The Nats lost one player in this draft:

Alejandro Machada was drafted by Minnesota just a month after the Nats had re-signed him to a minor league contract. So Machada didn’t have to stay on their active roster. And indeed he didn’t; he was injured all of 2007 and stayed with Minnesota’s AAA team until 2009, never again broaching the majors.

2005 Rule 5 Draft

The Nats did not draft anyone, but had a player taken who went on a whirlwind tour of MLB organizations before getting returned mid 2006.

Chris Booker was rule-5 drafted by Detroit, who immediately sold him to Philadelphia, who then waived him in May of 2006 with the intent of returning him … except that Kansas City picked him up, hung onto him for a couple months and eventually returned him to Washington. The Nats eventually called him up but he was relatively ineffective and he washed out of the game (seemingly due to injuries) after 2008.

2004 Rule 5 Draft (ahead of the 2005 season)

Tony Blanco: 1B; drafted from Cincinnati. He batted .177 as a 1st baseman backup while eating a roster spot all season, then we cut him from AAA after 2007. He kicked around Colorado’s system for a year and has been playing in Japan ever since. Verdict: failure.
Tyrell Godwin: CF, drafted from Toronto. Prior to the 2005 season, the team traded another minor leaguer to keep his rights, so this really played out less like a Rule-5 pickup in that Godwin didn’t have to stick on the 25-man roster all year. He played a grand total of 3 games for the Nats, kicked around AAA for a while an hung them up in 2007. Verdict: failure.

Summary: we’ve drafted 11 guys in the MLB phase Rule 5 draft since 2005, and I’d classify 10 of the 11 draftees as eventual failures. Not a great track record. Plus its safe to say that most every player drafted FROM us has been a failure for the drafting team. Clearly the Rule 5 draft isn’t a great way to reliably find players. Why do we do so much analysis on it? I dunno, because its fun? Because its December and we’re desperate for Baseball news? Fair enough 🙂

Written by Todd Boss

December 14th, 2015 at 10:15 am

From Nats to Oblivion; Updated for 2014 season

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Will Soriano join the Nats to Oblivion list? Photo via zimbio.com

Note: this is a recurring post, and large chunks of the older material is recycled. I’ve updated the research for older players as needed. See here for 2013’s version, click here for 2012’s version of this post.

Several years ago (November 2010) Mark Zuckerman posted a fascinating analysis he titled “From Nats to Oblivion.” It chronicled the astoundingly high number of players that the early incarnations of the Nats were using who, once the Nats released them, never again appeared in a MLB game. I thought the analysis was so interesting that I kept up the same data and have been keeping it up-to-date with the whereabouts of Nats-to-Oblivion candidates ever since. So with apologies to Zuckerman for stealing his idea, here’s an interesting visit to the Nats darker past.

It is nearly impossible for a team to field an entire year’s worth of players who will not fall into this “Oblivion” category. Every MLB team has guys playing out the string or near retirement, and every MLB team calls up guys through out the season from the minors who eventually show themselves as unable to compete on the MLB level and who never make it back. So a 0% oblivion measure isn’t a goal. The best this team has done is 5 players (the 2012 and 2013 teams), but the 2014 team has a good shot of beating that.

For your reminiscing pleasure, here is the summary data updated to the 2014 team:

2014: 22 position, 18 pitchers, 40 total. 8/40 = 20% candidate ratio right now
2013: 23 position, 21 pitchers, 44 total. 5/44 = 11.3% candidate ratio
2012: 24 position, 19 pitchers, 43 total. 5/43 = 11.6% candidate ratio
2011: 20 position, 24 pitchers, 44 total. 6/44 = 13.6% candidate ratio
2010: 20 position, 26 pitchers, 46 total. 12/46 = 26.0% never appeared again
2009: 25 position, 30 pitchers, 55 total. 9/55 = 16.3% never appeared again
2008: 25 position, 25 pitchers, 50 total. 8/50 = 16% never appeared again
2007: 21 position, 26 pitchers, 47 total. 12/47 = 25.5% never appeared again
2006: 28 position, 29 pitchers, 57 total. 20/57 = 35% never appeared again
2005: 30 position, 25 pitchers, 55 total. 16/55 = 29% never appeared again

Look at the 2006 season; 35% of the players who played for the team that year never played another Major League game. That’s still astounding to me. Read on for a detailed look back at some of the very bad players that have put in significant time for this team.

2014 (8 candidates right now):

Total Players used: 22 position, 18 pitchers, 40 total. 8/40 = 20% candidate ratio right now

Candidates:

Scott Hairston: FA after 2014, has not yet signed for 2015
Greg Dobbs: FA after 2014, has not signed yet for 2015
Nate Schierholtz: FA after 2014, signed w/ Texas but did not stay with club out of spring training. ~~Currently unsigned~~ Currently in Japan
Kevin Frandsen; re-signed and released by team in Apr 2015. Signed w/ Arizona Apr 2015, ML deal for AAA
Ryan Mattheus: Signed with LAA for 2015; in AAA
Jeff Kobernus: ~~Nats AAA 2015~~ Released by the team Mar 2015, unsigned as of this posting.
Rafael Soriano: FA after 2014, has yet to sign for 2015
Taylor Hill: Nats AAA 2015

(Note; i’ve put in corrections as noted in the comments, striking out the incorrect text).

I’d expect this list to at least get cut in half; Kobernus and Hill seem likely to get some work with the Nats this year, and its just a matter of time before Soriano gets signed to fill out someone’s bullpen hole (like ours?). The first 5 guys though … could be in trouble. Hairston and Dobbs went the whole off-season w/o getting signed. Schierholz didn’t make the Texas team and is a FA. Frandsen is in the same boat after getting unconditionally released by the Nats, but quickly picked up a AAA deal with Houston. Mattheus is off the 40-man but did make the Angels’ AAA team as a MLFA.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: too early to have a “story” really. Maybe the story about how Ryan Mattheus‘ career basically cratered after he punched a wall with his pitching hand in May of 2013. Or the story of Rafael Soriano‘s fall from grace in 2014 (first half: 0.97 ERA and talks of an All Star snub. Second half? 6.48 ERA and being removed as closer). But neither of those stories are really “fun.”

2013 (5 Candidates):

Total Players used: 23 position, 21 pitchers, 44 total. 5/44 = 11.3% candidate ratio right now

Current Candidates

Chad Tracy: MLFA signed w/ LA Angels for spring 2014, cut, retired 4/25/14
Yunesky Maya; MLFA with Atlanta AAA for 2014, then went to Korea where he is in 2015.
Chris Marrero: MLFA, signed w/ Baltimore AAA 2014, no stats for 2015 yet.
Jhonatan Solano; Nats AA 2014, Miami AAA for 2015.
Erik Davis; Nats AAA 2014 60 day D/L Tommy John surgery 2014, still on Nats D/L 2015

Updates since last post: Removed Nathan Karns (TB), Corey Brown (Boston), Jeff Kobernus (Nats in 2014), Eury Perez (NYY).

At least three of these players may very well stay on the “Oblivion” list (the first three). The last two seem like better candidates to eventually get off the list.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Yunesky Maya, who was Mike Rizzo‘s first foray into the Cuban exile market. Signed to a 4yr/$8M deal, he was given several shots at the majors and never could capitalize. He arrived in the US with a wide arsenal of pitches but not a lot of swing-and-miss talent, and he ended up basically being a AAA starter. He spent the last three seasons as Syracuse’s lead starter (getting 22, 28 and 24 starts there in-between infrequent call-ups) and ended up with just one career MLB win for his $8M salary (making his one of the worst dollars-per-win contracts ever … even if it was “just” $8M). This whole paragraph is assuming that Maya never makes it back to the majors … but based on what he’s shown thus far combined with his advancing age, that seems like a likely end-result for the Cuban starter. As we speak, he has given up on minor league ball and has decamped for Korea, where he’s shown some good stats in limited appearances.

2012 (5 candidates)

Total Players used: 24 position, 19 pitchers, 43 total. 5/43 = 11.6% candidate ratio right now

Candidates

Brad Lidge: Retired post 2012
Carlos Maldonado: Wash AAA 2013. Not signed for 2014
Ryan Perry: Wash AAA/AA 2013, 2014, released by Washington in 2014 and no subsequent appearances.
Jesus Flores; signed ML deal with Los Angeles Dodgers for 2013, was with TB, KC for 2014, not signed for 2015
Brett Carroll: signed ML deal w/ Pittsburgh for 2013, Tor for 2014. Not signed for 2015

Updates in last 12 months: none; we removed several players from this list last year, but none since.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Brad Lidge, who gave it one last shot and failed spectacularly. When you lose your stuff, its gone and gone fast. I’ll readily admit I thought the signing was a great one when it occurred but it just didn’t work out. I really hoped that Lidge would be a serviceable 7th inning guy and mentor to Drew Storen and Tyler Clippard, being one of the great closers of his day. It didn’t work out that way: the Nats released him on June 25th and he hung ’em up.

2011 (6 candidates)

Total Players used: 20 position, 24 pitchers, 44 total. 6/44 = 13.6% candidate ratio right now…

Candidates

Ivan Rodriguez – retired after 2011; will appear on the 2017 Hall-of-Fame Ballot with 1st ballot stats but a PED cloud over his head.
Matt Stairs — retired after 2011
Alex Cora — retired after 2011, now the General Manager of a Puerto Rican Winter League team.
Cole Kimball — Nats 60-day DL in 2012, XST in 2013, DFA’d off 40-man roster. 2014 indy, NYY AA team
Brian Broderick — Stl AAA, waived now Nats AAA in 2012, AA in 2013. Indy ball 2014, Kansas City AAA 2015
Atahualpa Severino — Nats AAA, DFA’d off 40-man in 2012, signed w/ KC for 2013, Atl AAA in 2014, LAA AAA in 2015

Changes in the last 12 months: none.

A couple of these guys are still hanging on; with Broderick coming back to organized ball and Severino with his third straight MLFA signing with a new squad for 2015.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Matt Stairs: He made the 2011 roster despite having almost no defensive capabilities and, as it soon became evident, almost no remaining abilities at the plate. He somehow hung onto his roster spot until August 1st despite having just one extra base hit in 74 at-bats on the year. I remember one game in particular; we were at the stadium going against the hated Phillies and they left Roy Halladay in to attempt to finish a shutout with a 3-0 lead (Game was on 4/13/11). Nats rally, score 2 runs to make it 3-2. Stairs comes up pinch hitting for Jerry Hairston with guys on 1st and 2nd with one out; he promptly watches three straight fastballs go right down the middle of the plate without moving his bat. I’ve never been so p*ssed at a player at the ball-park. Fellow Nats-to-Oblivion candidate Ivan Rodriguez then promptly struck out on 3 pitches as well, looking strike 3 into the mitt and then arguing vehemently with the ump over the game-ending call which gave Halladay the complete game victory.

2010 (12 players)

Total Players used: 20 position, 26 pitchers, 46 total. 12/46 = 26.0% never appeared again

Players:

Kevin Mench; retired after 2010
Jamie Burke; retired after 2010
Luis Atilano: in CIN org, AAA in 2012, never signed for 2013, out of baseball.
Scott Olsen; in CWS org, AAA 2012, never signed for 2013, out of baseball.
Tyler Walker; indy league 2011, never signed for 2012, out of baseball.
Matt Chico; indy league 2012, never signed for 2013, out of baseball.
Garrett Mock: Houston AAA 2012, AZ AAA for 2013. Not signed for 2014
Jason Bergmann: indy 2011, Col AAA 2012, Indy again in 2013, KC AA. Not signed for 2014
JD Martin; in MIA org AAA 2012, in TB AAA 2013, in Korea 2014
Jesse English; indy league 2011, 2012. Mexican League 2013, Indy ball 2014
Joe Bisenius; in Mexico 2011-12, Atl AA/AAA 2013, indy/mexican league 2014
Willy Taveras; played AAA for Col in 2011, retired prior to 2012, back with KC AAA 2013. Mexican league 2014, 2015

Changes in last 12 months: none.

As far as I can tell, we’re down to just one player even on a 2015 roster, albeit its Taveras in the Mexican league.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Jamie Burke: The 2009 Nats were so thin at Catcher by the end of the season that we literally bought a spare catcher in Burke from Seattle so we could have some coverage at the end of the season. Burke re-signed on for 2010 and appeared in exactly one MLB game. He was released after the season and retired.

2009 (9 players)

Total Players used: 25 position, 30 pitchers, 55 total. 9/55 = 16.3% never appeared again

Players:

Elijah Dukes: released and never picked up for 2010. Arrested in 2011, 2012, out of baseball.
Alex Cintron; playing in Mexico 2012, nothing in 2013
Jorge Padilla; in SD org, AAA in 2012, nothing in 2013
Ron Villone, AAA all of 2010, 2011 playing indy ball, retired prior to 2012. He was scheduled to appear on the 2015 Hall of Fame ballot but was removed for some reason. Was a pitching coach for the Cubs organization; not sure where he is (if anywhere) for 2015.
Julian Tavarez; retired after getting DFA’d in July 2009
Mike Hinckley: Tor org in 2011, retired prior to 2012
Steven Shell; KC org in 2011, retired prior to 2012
Victor Garate; MIL org and Indy ball in 2012, Mexican league 2013, 2014. Nowhere for 2015, yet…
Zack Segovia; in Det org AA in 2012, Mexican league/Indy ball 2013, Mexican League 2014. Nowhere for 2015, yet…

Changes in last 12 months: none.

Still a couple guys active in the Mexican league, possibly, for 2015.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Ron Villone, who proved that a crafty lefty with a halfway decent fastball can have a long career in this game. He had 63 appearances at age 39 for the 2009 Nats and got re-signed for 2010. He didn’t make the team though, labored in Syracuse the whole season and was released. Despite being 41 years old, he headed to Indy ball for one last shot but washed out after just a few outings in 2011.

It wouldn’t be a retrospective on poor Nats players if we didn’t briefly talk about Elijah Dukes though. I think its safe to assume that he’s the only guy on this list that has served more time in jail than has played in the minor leagues, attempting to get back to the show.

2008 (8 players)

Total Players used: 25 position, 25 pitchers, 50 total. 8/50 = 16% never appeared again

Players:

Kory Casto; 2009 AAA, 2010 in Ariz AA, retired.
Dmitri Young: some rehab in low minors 2009, retired.
Rob Mackowiak: 2009: some indy, bounced around AAA, that’s it.
Johnny Estrada; quit after 2008 mid-season release.
Odalis Perez; refused his 2009 contract, never resigned (see below)
Levale Speigner; 2009 in Florida’s AA/AAA, then 2010 in Seattle AAA. done.
Ray King; retired after 2008
Chris Schroder; 2009, 2010 bounced around AAA with Oakland, Fla.

Changes in last 12 months: none

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Odalis Perez, though I’m tempted to say either Mackowiak or Estrada, possibly the two worst FA signings of the whole Jim Bowden era (and that’s saying something). But nothing beats the Perez story. He was the Nats Opening Day Starter in 2008, and he was the first guy to get a start in the new Nationals Stadium. He pitched decently enough; in 30 starts he was 7-12 with a 4.34 ERA and a 99 ERA+ for a god-awful team. But apparently he got really pissed when the team only offered him a non-guaranteed Minor League deal for 2009. So he held out, the Nats said “fine with us” and released him, and nobody else picked him up. And he never played another game. I’m not sure if that was a sign that he was just that bad (not one team wanted to even give an opening day starter a look the subsequent year?), or if there was some sort of MLB general manager omerta that conspired against him. Either way, Perez played again, not even in Winter Leagues as far as I could find. Sometimes a player has to swallow his pride, and Perez apparently could not.

2007 (12 players)

Total Players used: 21 position, 26 pitchers, 47 total. 12/47 = 25.5% never appeared again

Players:

Nook Logan; indy league 2008, 2010.
Robert Fick: Cut from the Padres in ST 2008, full year indy league 2009, retired.
D’Angelo Jimenez: AAA all of 2008, 2009. Mexican league and Indy league 2010-2012
Tony Batista: Wash AAA 2008, then released
Michael Restovich: 2008 in Japan, AAA 2009-2011, retired
Brandon Watson: AAA 2008-9, indy league 2011, retired.
Mike Bacsik: 2008 AAA, 2011 indy league, now a broadcaster.
Jason Simontacchi; 2008 indy league, 2010 again.
John Patterson; cut in ST 2008, immediately signed w/ Texas but never played again.
Ryan Wagner: AAA 2008-9, released and presumably retired.
Arnie Munoz; went to mexican league, retired > 2010
Chris Booker: AAA in 2008, then retired/released.

Changes in last 12 months: none

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Mike Bacsik, who was destined to be a career 4-A guy before Washington picked him up and gave him 20 starts in 2007. Bacsik was on his 6th minor league organization when he arrived in Syracuse and pitched his way up to the major leagues. He was overmatched badly; he had a 5.11 ERA and just a 3.4 K/9 rate. But he did get his moment in the headlines by giving up Barry Bonds‘ 756th career homer one night in San Francisco in August. Contrary to accusations on the topic, I do not believe Bacsik “served up” the homer. If you check the play index, Bonds hit the 7th pitch of the at-bat in a 3-2 count for that homer. Bacsik didn’t purposely give up a homer on the 7th pitch of an at-bat; he just ran out of pitches to show Bonds that weren’t going to get pulverized.

A quick comment though on John Patterson: I remember being absolutely shocked at his release in 2008’s spring training. He was cut on 3/20/08, right in the middle of Spring Training with no warning and having just thrown his Grapefruit innings. He was healthy, recovered from surgery, ready to be the ace of that staff and start showing off the potential that he showed in 2005 (you know, when he 4-hit the Dodgers with 13 punch outs and posted the best Game-Score performance in Nats history). He signed a ML deal with Texas after his release by the Nats, but he couldn’t answer the call and never appeared again, getting released in mid May. I guess his third arm surgery in 7 years just left him unable to compete at any level and he hung ’em up.

2006 (20 players)

Total Players used: 28 position, 29 pitchers, 57 total. 20/57 = 35% never appeared again

Damian Jackson; dnp 2007, indy league 2008-9
Bernie Castro: AAA all of 2007, 8 then retired.
Alex Escobar: Wash minors 2007-8, then retired.
Brandon Harper: Wash AAA all of 2007, then released/retired.
Wiki Gonzalez: CWS AAA all of 2007, indy league 2008, retired.
Henry Mateo: AAA or Indy league 2007-2009, mexican league from 2010-current 2013
George Lombard: AAA 2007-9, some indy league, retired.
Mike Vento: 2007 Wash AAA, indy league 2008, back with Syracuse 2009, retired.
Melvin Dorta; various minor leagues 2007-2010, indy league 2011, retired.
Luis Matos: AAA 2007, Mexican League 2008-2012. ? 2013
Pedro Astacio; retired after 2006
Felix Rodriguez: dnp 2007, indy league 2008-9, retired.
Zach Day: AAA 2007, briefly A+ 2008, retired.
Beltran Perez; wash minors AA/AAA 2007-8, released and never played again.
Joey Eischen; released off of Washington and retired.
Travis Hughes; AAA in 2007, played in Japan 2008, indy leagues 2009, 2011.
Ryan Drese: various minor leagues 2007-8, indy league 2009-2010, Baltimore AAA 2011, released/retired.
Kevin Gryboski: AAA 2007-2008, retired/released.
Brett Campbell: Wash AA 2007, released/retired.
Santiago Ramirez: Japan in 2007, Mexican league 2008, indy 2009, retired.

Changes in last 12 months: none

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Joey Eischen, who bounced around the league in his 20s before settling in Montreal and moving south with the team. He was known to be a “character” in the clubhouse and to give good quotes to reporters (google “Joey Eischen quotes” and you’ll find some of his classics). By 2006 though the years had taken their toll on his shoulder; he had 19 walks in 14 2/3 innings through the end of May had blown his rotator cuff. The team put him on the 60 day D/L and called up Virginia-native Bill Bray. Eischen never got off that D/L; he was released in the off-season and never played again. He has been a pitching coach in the Colorado system since 2010.

2005 (16 players)

Total Players used: 30 position, 25 pitchers, 55 total. 16/55 = 29% never appeared again

Players:

Carlos Baerga; retired after 2005
Junior Spivey: bounced around AAA 2006-7, indy ball in 2009, retired.
Tony Blanco; Nats minor leagues 2006-7, Colorado AA in 2008, in Japan from 2009-present.
Wil Cordero; released mid 2005, signed on with the NY Mets but never made it out of AAA. Retired after 2005.
Deivi Cruz; released after 2005, cut from St. Louis 2006 ST, played indy ball, retired.
Jeffrey Hammonds; retired in June 2005 mid-season.
J.J. Davis: Traded to Colorado as part of the Preston Wilson deal, sent to Colorado’s AAA, then released after the season and never played again.
Rick Short; Granted FA after the 2005 season to play in Japan, played there til 2009.
Kenny Kelly; AAA in 2006 and 2007, released and retired.
Keith Osik; a backup catcher, got 4 ABs in 2005, released and retired.
Tyrell Godwin; after just THREE MLB at-bats in 2005, spent all of 2006 and 2007 in AAA, released and retired.
T.J. Tucker; released after 2005, tried one year of indy ball in 2008, retired.
Joe Horgan; released after 2005, played one year of AAA with Florida, released, retired.
Matt White; AAA in 2006-7, Japan 2007-8, tried indy ball in 2010, hung ’em up.
C.J. Nitkowski; AAA in 2006, then went to Japan 2007-8, Korea 2009-10, back with the Mets AAA team in July 2012. Not signed for 2013
Antonio Osuna: dnp in 2006, Mexican league 2007-9.

Changes in last 12 months: none

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Rick Short, who got his MLB debut at the age of 32, after 11 very long seasons in the minors with many different teams. He got a couple of call-ups in June and July to provide cover, and then played out the string after a Sept 1 roster expansion call-up. In that off-season, he returned to Japan (where he’d played one full season prior), and played four more years in the Japanese League and retired in 2009.

Though it merits talking about a couple other guys here. Tony Blanco; he was a rule-5 draftee who the Nats carried the whole of 2005 so they could keep his rights. He was awful; he had a .177 batting average as the 25th guy off the bench. In 2006 he couldn’t even cut it in AA and played most of the year in High-A. After 2007 the Nats summarily released him from their minor league organization altogether. He found his calling though; he signed on in Japan in 2009 at age 27 and continues to play there today. You have to wonder if he may very well earn another MLB shot.

Jeffrey Hammonds was well known to Washington baseball fans by virtue of his pedigree with our northern neighbors in Baltimore; he was a 1st round draft pick in 1992 out of Stanford, broke in with the MLB team the following year and was a role player on the powerhouse Baltimore teams of the mid 1990s. He bounced around the league afterwards though, signing on with the newly relocated Washington franchise for the 2005 debut season but he hung ’em up after a slow start here. He was only 34 when he retired.

Written by Todd Boss

April 22nd, 2015 at 8:17 am

Posted in Nats in General

Tagged with alex cintron, alex cora, alex escobar, antonio osuna, arnie munoz, atahualpa severino, barry bonds, beltran perez, bernie castro, bill bray, brad lidge, brandon harper, brandon watson, brett campbell, brett carroll, brian broderick, carlos baerga, carlos maldonado, chad tracy, chris booker, chris marrero, chris schroder, cj nitkowski, cole kimball, corey brown, damian jackson, dangelo jimenez, deivi cruz, dmitri young, drew storen, elijah dukes, erik davis, eury perez, felix rodriguez, garrett mock, george lombard, greg dobbs, henry mateo, ivan rodriguez, jamie burke, jason bergmann, jason simontacchi, jd martin, jeff kobernus, jeffrey hammonds, jerry hairston, jesse english, jesus flores, jhonatan solano, jim bowden, jj davis, joe bisenius, joe horgan, joey eischen, john patterson, johnny estrada, jorge padilla, julian tavarez, junior spivey, keith osik, kenny kelly, kevin frandsen, kevin gryboski, kevin mench, kory casto, levale speigner, luis atilano, luis matos, mark zuckerman, matt chico, matt stairs, matt white, melvin dorta, michael restovich, mike bacsik, mike hinckley, mike rizzo, mike vento, nate schierholtz, nathan karns, nook logan, odalis perez, pedro astacio, rafael soriano, ray king, rick short, rob mackowiak, robert fick, ron villone, roy halladay, ryan drese, ryan mattheus, ryan perry, ryan wagner, santiago ramirez, scott hairston, scott olsen, steven shell, taylor hill, tj tucker, tony batista, tony blanco, travis hughes, tyler clippard, tyler walker, tyrell godwin, victor garate, wiki gonzalez, wil cordero, willy taveras, yunesky maya, zach day, zack segovia

From Nats to Oblivion; Updated for 2013 season

13 comments

Is Maya going to be the latest Nats to Oblivion poster child? Photo Al Bello/Getty Images

Several years ago (November 2010) Mark Zuckerman posted a fascinating analysis he titled “From Nats to Oblivion.” It chronicled the astoundingly high number of players that the early incarnations of the Nats were using who, once the Nats released them, never again appeared on a MLB roster. I thought the analysis was so interesting that I kept up the same data and have been keeping it up-to-date with the whereabouts of Nats-to-Oblivion candidates ever since. So with apologies to Zuckerman for stealing his idea, here’s an interesting visit to the Nats darker past.

A large part of this post is borrowed from previous versions; click here for 2012’s version of this post. A few players from our near past have re-surfaced in the majors as of late and have been removed from this list where noted; if you see any others listed here in error please let me know. But this entire list is updated post 2013 season, with the minor league/foreign league/independent league movements of oblivion candidates chronicled.

It is nearly impossible for a team to field an entire year’s worth of players who will not fall into this “Oblivion” category. Every MLB team has guys playing out the string or near retirement, and every MLB team calls up guys through out the season from the minors who eventually show themselves as unable to compete on the MLB level and who never make it back. So a 0% oblivion measure isn’t a goal.

For your reminiscing pleasure, here is the summary data updated to the 2013 team:

2012: 24 position, 19 pitchers, 43 total. 5/43 = 11.6% candidate ratio
2011: 20 position, 24 pitchers, 44 total. 6/44 = 13.6% candidate ratio
2010: 20 position, 26 pitchers, 46 total. 12/46 = 26.0% never appeared again
2009: 25 position, 30 pitchers, 55 total. 9/55 = 16.3% never appeared again
2008: 25 position, 25 pitchers, 50 total. 8/50 = 16% never appeared again
2007: 21 position, 26 pitchers, 47 total. 12/47 = 25.5% never appeared again
2006: 28 position, 29 pitchers, 57 total. 20/57 = 35% never appeared again
2005: 30 position, 25 pitchers, 55 total. 16/55 = 29% never appeared again

Look at the 2006 season; 35% of the players who played for the team that year never played another Major League game. That’s still astounding to me. Read on for a detailed look back at some of the very bad players that have put in significant time for this team.

2013 (13 Candidates):

Total Players used: 23 position, 21 pitchers, 44 total. 13/44 = 29.5% candidate ratio right now. Real candidates list is just the top 5, so 5/44 = 11.36%.

Candidates

Yunesky Maya; ML deal with Atlanta for 2014
Chris Marrrero: ML deal with Baltimore for 2014
Chad Tracy: still a FA; highly unlikely to get a major league deal after his awful 2013.
Corey Brown: DFA’d, traded to Oakland
Fernando Abad; DFA’d, traded to Oakland

Less likely “candidates” from the 2013 team:

Danny Espinosa
Jhonatan Solano
Jeff Kobernus
Zach Walters
Eury Perez
Sandy Leon
Nathan Karns
Erik Davis

The top 5 players are really the “candidates” out of the 2013 team. Every one of the guys in the lower section is on our 40-man roster, meaning they all likely see time this coming season. In fact, right now the odds are that at least a couple of these guys will make the opening day roster. So really the oblivion candidates here are just the top 5 guys, but we’ll track all 13 until they’re cleared off this list. Both the guys we traded to Oakland sit on their 40-man roster, but both seem in serious jeopardy of being DFA’d again at some point in the spring (especially Corey Brown, who is out of options).

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Yunesky Maya, who was Mike Rizzo‘s first foray into the Cuban exile market. Signed to a 4yr/$8M deal, he was given several shots at the majors and never could capitalize. He arrived in the US with a wide arsenal of pitches but not a lot of swing-and-miss talent, and he ended up basically being a AAA starter. He spent the last three seasons as Syracuse’s lead starter (getting 22, 28 and 24 starts there inbetween infrequent call-ups) and ended up with just one career MLB win for his $8M salary (making his one of the worst dollars-per-win contracts ever … even if it was “just” $8M). This whole paragraph is assuming that Maya never makes it back to the majors … but based on what he’s shown thus far combined with his advancing age, that seems like a likely end-result for the Cuban starter.

2012 (5 candidates)

Total Players used: 24 position, 19 pitchers, 43 total. 5/43 = 11.6% candidate ratio right now

Candidates

Brad Lidge: Retired post 2012
Jesus Flores; signed ML deal with Los Angeles Dodgers for 2013, no MLB appearances
Brett Carroll: signed ML deal w/ Pittsburgh for 2013, no MLB appearances
Ryan Perry: Wash AAA and AA 2013
Carlos Maldonado: Wash AAA 2013

In the past 12 months, we’ve removed 3 players from this list (Izturas, Wang and Brown) who re-appeared on MLB rosters either here or elsewhere. I still think its possible that Flores could re-appear on an MLB roster at some point; catchers have a way of getting hurt and causing organizations to scramble. The rest face pretty long odds.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Brad Lidge, who gave it one last shot and failed spectacularly. When you lose your stuff, its gone and gone fast. I’ll readily admit I thought the signing was a great one when it occurred but it just didn’t work out. I really hoped that Lidge would be a serviceable 7th inning guy and mentor to Drew Storen and Tyler Clippard, being one of the great closers of his day. It didn’t work out that way.

2011 (6 candidates)

Total Players used: 20 position, 24 pitchers, 44 total. 6/44 = 13.6% candidate ratio right now…

Candidates

Ivan Rodriguez – retired after 2011
Matt Stairs — retired after 2011
Alex Cora — retired after 2011, now the General Manager of a Puerto Rican Winter League team.
Cole Kimball — Nats 60-day DL in 2012, XST in 2013, DFA’d off 40-man roster.
Brian Broderick — Stl AAA, waived now Nats AAA in 2012, AA in 2013
Atahualpa Severino — Nats AAA, DFA’d off 40-man in 2012, KC AAA for 2013, signed ML deal with Atlanta for 2014 (thanks John C).

Changes in the last 12 months: none.

As with the 2012 candidates, I wouldn’t be surprised to see this list get lowered by one eventually; Severino seems like he could work his way back into a loogy situation for a club. Kimball’s DFA and Broderick’s pending MLFA status both make it seem like their chances of returning to the majors are slim.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Matt Stairs: He made the 2011 roster despite having almost no defensive capabilities and, as it soon became evident, almost no remaining abilities at the plate. He somehow hung onto his roster spot until August 1st despite having just one extra base hit in 74 at-bats on the year. I remember one game in particular; we were at the stadium going against the hated Phillies and they left Roy Halladay in to attempt to finish a shutout with a 3-0 lead (Game was on 4/13/11). Nats rally, score 2 runs to make it 3-2. Stairs comes up pinch hitting for Jerry Hairston with guys on 1st and 2nd with one out; he promptly watches three straight fastballs go right down the middle of the plate without moving his bat. I’ve never been so p*ssed at a player at the ball-park. Ivan Rodriguez then promptly struck out on 3 pitches as well, looking strike 3 into the mitt and then arguing vehimently with the ump over the game-ending call which gave Halladay the complete game victory.

2010 (12 players)

Total Players used: 20 position, 26 pitchers, 46 total. 12/46 = 26.0% never appeared again

Players:

Willy Taveras; played AAA for Col in 2011, retired prior to 2012, back with KC AAA 2013
Kevin Mench; retired after 2010
Jamie Burke; retired after 2010
Luis Atilano: in CIN org, AAA in 2012, never signed for 2013
Scott Olsen; in CWS org, AAA 2012, never signed for 2013
JD Martin; in MIA org AAA 2012, in TB AAA 2013
Tyler Walker; indy league 2011, never signed for 2012
Jesse English; indy league 2011, 2012. Mexican League 2013
Matt Chico; indy league 2012, never signed for 2013
Joe Bisenius; in Mexico 2011-12, Atlanta AA/AAA for 2013
Garrett Mock: Houston AAA 2012, AZ AAA for 2013
Jason Bergmann: indy 2011, Col AAA 2012, Indy again in 2013, KC AA team.

Changes in last 12 months: none.

There’s more than a few guys here who are still hanging on to AAA jobs but not many of them are looking promising to break onto 40-man rosters and earn call-ups.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Jamie Burke: The 2009 Nats were so thin at Catcher by the end of the season that we literally bought a spare catcher in Burke from Seattle so we could have some coverage at the end of the season. Burke re-signed on for 2010 and appeared in exactly one MLB game. He was released after the season and retired.

2009 (9 players)

Total Players used: 25 position, 30 pitchers, 55 total. 9/55 = 16.3% never appeared again

Players:

Elijah Dukes: released and never picked up for 2010. Arrested in 2011, 2012, out of baseball.
Alex Cintron; playing in Mexico 2012, nothing in 2013
Jorge Padilla; in SD org, AAA in 2012, nothing in 2013
Ron Villone, AAA all of 2010, 2011 playing indy ball, retired prior to 2012. He will appear on the 2015 Hall of Fame ballot and is currently the pitching coach of the High-A Chicago affilliate.
Julian Tavarez; retired after getting DFA’d in July 2009
Zack Segovia; in Det org AA in 2012, Mexican league/Indy ball 2013
Mike Hinckley: Tor org in 2011, retired prior to 2012
Steven Shell; KC org in 2011, retired prior to 2012
Victor Garate; MIL org and Indy ball in 2012, Mexican league 2013

Changes in last 12 months: removed Kensing and Martis after they both resurfaced on MLB teams, meaning that they both went three full seasons inbetween MLB appearances. That’s why we track these guys for so long.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Ron Villone, who proved that a crafty lefty with a halfway decent fastball can have a long career in this game. He had 63 appearances at age 39 for the 2009 Nats and got re-signed for 2010. He didn’t make the team though, labored in Syracuse the whole season and was released. Despite being 41 years old, he headed to Indy ball for one last shot but washed out after just a few outings in 2011.

It wouldn’t be a retrospective on poor Nats players if we didn’t briefly talk about Elijah Dukes though. I think its safe to assume that he’s the only guy on this list that has served more time in jail than has played in the minor leagues, attempting to get back to the show.

2008 (8 players)

Total Players used: 25 position, 25 pitchers, 50 total. 8/50 = 16% never appeared again

Players:

Kory Casto; 2009 AAA, 2010 in Ariz AA, retired.
Dmitri Young: some rehab in low minors 2009, retired.
Rob Mackowiak: 2009: some indy, bounced around AAA, that’s it.
Johnny Estrada; flat out quit after 2008
Odalis Perez; refused his 2009 contract, never resigned
Levale Speigner; 2009 in Florida’s AA/AAA, then 2010 in Seattle AAA. done.
Ray King; retired after 2008
Chris Schroder; 2009, 2010 bounced around AAA with Oakland, Fla.

Changes in last 12 months: none

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Odalis Perez, though I’m tempted to say either Mackowiak or Estrada, possibly the two worst FA signings of the whole Jim Bowden era (and that’s saying something). But nothing beats the Perez story. He was the Nats Opening Day Starter in 2008; hell he was the first guy to get a start in the Nationals Stadium. He pitched well; in 30 starts he was 7-12 with a 4.34 ERA and a 99 ERA+ for a god-awful team. But apparently he got really pissed when the team only offered him a non-guaranteed Minor League deal for 2009. So he held out, the Nats said “fine with us” and released him, and nobody else picked him up. And he never played another game. I’m not sure if that was a sign that he was just that bad (not one team wanted to even give an opening day starter a look the subsequent year?), or if there was some sort of MLB general manager omerta that conspired against him. Either way, Perez played again, not even in Winter Leagues as far as I could find. Sometimes a player has to swallow his pride, and Perez apparently could not.

2007 (12 players)

Total Players used: 21 position, 26 pitchers, 47 total. 12/47 = 25.5% never appeared again

Players:

Nook Logan; indy league 2008, 2010.
Robert Fick: Cut from the Padres in ST 2008, full year indy league 2009, retired.
D’Angelo Jimenez: AAA all of 2008, 2009. Mexican league and Indy league 2010-2012
Tony Batista: Wash AAA 2008, then released
Michael Restovich: 2008 in Japan, AAA 2009-2011, retired
Brandon Watson: AAA 2008-9, indy league 2011, retired.
Mike Bacsik: 2008 AAA, 2011 indy league, now a broadcaster.
Jason Simontacchi; 2008 indy league, 2010 again.
John Patterson; cut in ST 2008, immediately signed w/ Texas but never played again.
Ryan Wagner: AAA 2008-9, released and presumably retired.
Arnie Munoz; went to mexican league, retired > 2010
Chris Booker: AAA in 2008, then retired/released.

Changes in last 12 months: none

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Mike Bacsik, who was destined to be a career 4-A guy before Washington picked him up and gave him 20 starts in 2007. Bacsik was on his 6th minor league organization when he arrived in Syracuse and pitched his way up to the major leagues. He was overmatched badly; he had a 5.11 ERA and just a 3.4 K/9 rate. But he did get his moment in the headlines by giving up Barry Bonds‘ 756th career homer one night in San Francisco in August. Contrary to accusations on the topic, I do not believe Bacsik “served up” the homer. If you check the play index, Bonds hit the 7th pitch of the at-bat in a 3-2 count for that homer. Bacsik didn’t purposely give up a homer on the 7th pitch of an at-bat; he just ran out of pitches to show Bonds that weren’t going to get pulverized.

A quick comment though on John Patterson: I remember being absolutely shocked at his release in 2008’s spring training. He was cut on 3/20/08, right in the middle of Spring Training with no warning and having just thrown his Grapefruit innings. He was healthy, recovered from surgery, ready to be the ace of that staff and start showing off the potential that he showed in 2005 (you know, when he 4-hit the Dodgers with 13 punch outs and posted the best Game-Score performance in Nats history). He signed a ML deal with Texas after his release by the Nats, but he couldn’t answer the call and never appeared again, getting released in mid May. I guess his third arm surgery in 7 years just left him unable to compete at any level and he hung ’em up.

2006 (20 players)

Total Players used: 28 position, 29 pitchers, 57 total. 20/57 = 35% never appeared again

Damian Jackson; dnp 2007, indy league 2008-9
Bernie Castro: AAA all of 2007, 8 then retired.
Alex Escobar: Wash minors 2007-8, then retired.
Brandon Harper: Wash AAA all of 2007, then released/retired.
Wiki Gonzalez: CWS AAA all of 2007, indy league 2008, retired.
Henry Mateo: AAA or Indy league 2007-2009, mexican league from 2010-current 2013
George Lombard: AAA 2007-9, some indy league, retired.
Mike Vento: 2007 Wash AAA, indy league 2008, back with Syracuse 2009, retired.
Melvin Dorta; various minor leagues 2007-2010, indy league 2011, retired.
Luis Matos: AAA 2007, Mexican League 2008-2012. ? 2013
Pedro Astacio; retired after 2006
Felix Rodriguez: dnp 2007, indy league 2008-9, retired.
Zach Day: AAA 2007, briefly A+ 2008, retired.
Beltran Perez; wash minors AA/AAA 2007-8, released and never played again.
Joey Eischen; released off of Washington and retired.
Travis Hughes; AAA in 2007, played in Japan 2008, indy leagues 2009, 2011.
Ryan Drese: various minor leagues 2007-8, indy league 2009-2010, Baltimore AAA 2011, released/retired.
Kevin Gryboski: AAA 2007-2008, retired/released.
Brett Campbell: Wash AA 2007, released/retired.
Santiago Ramirez: Japan in 2007, Mexican league 2008, indy 2009, retired.

Changes in last 12 months: none

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Joey Eischen, who bounced around the league in his 20s before settling in Montreal and moving south with the team. He was known to be a “character” in the clubhouse and to give good quotes to reporters (google “Joey eischen quotes” and you’ll find some of his classics). By 2006 though the years had taken their toll on his shoulder; he had 19 walks in 14 2/3 innings through the end of May had blown his rotator cuff. The team put him on the 60 day D/L and called up one Bill Bray. Eischen never got off that D/L; he was released in the off-season and never played again. For 2013, he’s listed as the pitching coach of Colorado’s high-A Affiliate in Asheville.

2005 (16 players)

Total Players used: 30 position, 25 pitchers, 55 total. 16/55 = 29% never appeared again

Players:

Carlos Baerga; retired after 2005
Junior Spivey: bounced around AAA 2006-7, indy ball in 2009, retired.
Tony Blanco; Nats minor leagues 2006-7, Colorado AA in 2008, in Japan from 2009-present.
Wil Cordero; released mid 2005, signed on with the NY Mets but never made it out of AAA. Retired after 2005.
Deivi Cruz; released after 2005, cut from St. Louis 2006 ST, played indy ball, retired.
Jeffrey Hammonds; retired in June 2005 mid-season.
J.J. Davis: Traded to Colorado as part of the Preston Wilson deal, sent to Colorado’s AAA, then released after the season and never played again.
Rick Short; Granted FA after the 2005 season to play in Japan, played there til 2009.
Kenny Kelly; AAA in 2006 and 2007, released and retired.
Keith Osik; a backup catcher, got 4 ABs in 2005, released and retired.
Tyrell Godwin; after just THREE MLB at-bats in 2005, spent all of 2006 and 2007 in AAA, released and retired.
T.J. Tucker; released after 2005, tried one year of indy ball in 2008, retired.
Joe Horgan; released after 2005, played one year of AAA with Florida, released, retired.
Matt White; AAA in 2006-7, Japan 2007-8, tried indy ball in 2010, hung ’em up.
C.J. Nitkowski; AAA in 2006, then went to Japan 2007-8, Korea 2009-10, back with the Mets AAA team in July 2012. Not signed for 2013
Antonio Osuna: dnp in 2006, Mexican league 2007-9.

Changes in last 12 months: none

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Rick Short, who got his MLB debut at the age of 32, after 11 very long seasons in the minors with many different teams. He got a couple of call-ups in June and July to provide cover, and then played out the string after a Sept 1 roster expansion call-up. In that off-season, he returned to Japan (where he’d played one full season prior), and played four more years in the Japanese League and retired in 2009.

Though it merits talking about a couple other guys here. Tony Blanco; he was a rule-5 draftee who the Nats carried the whole of 2005 so they could keep his rights. He was awful; he had a .177 batting average as the 25th guy off the bench. In 2006 he couldn’t even cut it in AA and played most of the year in High-A. After 2007 the Nats summarily released him from their minor league organization altogether. He found his calling though; he signed on in Japan in 2009 at age 27 and continues to play there today. You have to wonder if he may very well earn another MLB shot.

Jeffrey Hammonds was well known to Washington baseball fans by virtue of his pedigree with our northern neighbors in Baltimore; he was a 1st round draft pick in 1992 out of Stanford, broke in with the MLB team the following year and was a role player on the powerhouse Baltimore teams of the mid 1990s. He bounced around the league afterwards though, signing on with the newly relocated Washington franchise for the 2005 debut season but he hung ’em up after a slow start here. He was only 34 when he retired.

Written by Todd Boss

January 16th, 2014 at 9:01 am

Posted in Nats in General

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Nats Rule-5 Draft History; updated for 2013

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Jesus Flores remains our most successful Rule 5 Draftee. Photo Toni Sandys/Washington Post

(I should have published this in early December but got caught up in a glut of other posts; posting this now in lieu of just trashing it).

The Nats for years were heavy participants in the Rule-5 draft, thanks to some pretty awful teams and some shrewd scouting. In November 2011 I did a Rule-5 Draft history, and I thought I’d update it for the last few drafts, now that 2013’s draft is complete. Borrowing a chunk of the text for the previous years from the previous post, here’s a list of the Rule 5 drafts since 2005, with our players taken/received noted and with some thoughts on how the player turned out for either side. Note I’m mostly only doing this analysis for the major league section of the rule 5 draft; there’s just far too little eventual MLB success to be found in the AAA and AA sections of the Rule 5 draft to do the analysis. I will note some notables who get snapped up in the minor league section for the later years.

2004 Rule 5 Draft (ahead of the 2005 season)

Tony Blanco: 1B; drafted from Cincinnati. He batted .177 as a 1st baseman backup while eating a roster spot all season, then we cut him from AAA after 2007. He kicked around Colorado’s system for a year and has been playing in Japan ever since. Verdict: failure.
Tyrell Godwin: CF, drafted from Toronto. Prior to the 2005 season, the team traded another minor leaguer to keep his rights, so this really played out less like a Rule-5 pickup in that Godwin didn’t have to stick on the 25-man roster all year. He played a grand total of 3 games for the Nats, kicked around AAA for a while an hung them up in 2007. Verdict: failure.

2005 Rule 5 Draft

The Nats did not draft anyone, but had a player taken who went on a whirlwind tour of MLB organizations before getting returned mid 2006.

Chris Booker was rule-5 drafted by Detroit, who immediately sold him to Philadelphia, who then waived him in May of 2006 with the intent of returning him … except that Kansas City picked him up, hung onto him for a couple months and eventually returned him to Washington. The Nats eventually called him up but he was relatively ineffective and he washed out of the game (seemingly due to injuries) after 2008.

2006 Rule 5 Draft

Jesus Flores, C, drafted from the New York Mets, stuck with the team all year despite having only played high-A ball in the minors. Despite his eventual injury issues that plagued him for the better part of 3 seasons, Flores remains the best example of a “found gold” prospect that can be had in the Rule 5 draft. After the Nats DFA’d him last off-season, he bounced around both LA and Tampa’s AAA teams in 2013 but did not appear in the majors. Verdict: success.
Levale Speigner RHP (a closer) was drafted from Minnesota and, as with Booker above, eventually was traded for by the Nats so they could keep him and stash him in the minors. After some awful outings for the big team, he passed through waivers mid 2008 and was released from AAA in 2008, bounced around a couple other organizations, and retired after 2010. Verdict: failure.

The Nats lost one player in this draft:

Alejandro Machada was drafted by Minnesota just a month after the Nats had re-signed him to a minor league contract. So Machada didn’t have to stay on their active roster. And indeed he didn’t; he was injured all of 2007 and stayed with Minnesota’s AAA team until 2009, never again broaching the majors.

2007 Rule 5 Draft

Matt Whitney: 1B/3B, Drafted and then eventually returned back to Cleveland, who eventually made the former 1st rounder a ML free agent and we signed him after the 2008 season. We cut him after the 2009 season and he retired after 2010. Verdict: failure.
Garrett Guzman: LF/RF: after Rule-5 selecting him, the team eventually traded a PTBNL for him to Minnesota, then we cut him outright and nobody picked him up. He played two years of Independent ball and was out of baseball after 2010. Guzman is more infamously known as the player who was caught having sex with an underage girl while playing for our AA team in Harrisburg in 2008, likely the reason why nobody picked him up after his DFA. Verdict: failure.

The Nats lost one player of note in the minor league phase in this draft:

Brett Campbell was drafted by Milwaukee in the AAA phase of the rule-5 draft. Milwaukee released him in spring training of the subsequent 2008 season and Campbell never played another inning of pro baseball. This seems especially odd to me: he was drafted in 2004 and rose all the way through the Nats system to debut in the majors by Sept of 2006. He pitched in just two games in 2006, and returned to the minors in 2007. Was he hurt? He was only 26 when he apparently hung them up. Oddity.

2008 Rule 5 Draft

Terrell Young: Drafted with the #1 pick in the Rule 5 draft from Cincinnati. He got hurt, never played for us, and was eventually returned to the Reds. His injury was severe enough that he was out of baseball after being drafted; he has no professional games after 2008. Verdict: failure.
Ricardo Nanita, selected in the minor league phase, played most of 2009, then went to the Mexican league, then got picked up by Toronto in minor league free agency and has been there ever since, playing all of 2013 in Buffalo. Verdict: failure.

The team lost two players in the minor league phase:

RHP Luis Ortega to Royals was picked up off the Nats rookie squad, pitched one more season for Kansas City’s rookie squad and was cut.
RHP Josh Perrault was picked up by the Orioles, who bounced him around their farm system for a couple of years before he retired in 2010.

2009 Rule 5 Draft

Jamie Hoffman; OF, Drafted with the #1 pick in the Rule 5 draft from Los Angeles Dodgers and immediately traded for Brian Bruney in a pre-arranged deal. NY returned him to the Dodgers later that spring. Bruney, meanwhile, immediately went to arbitration and lost with the team in the spring of 2010, was awful out of the gate, and the team outright released him before the end of May. Verdict: failure, all the way around this transaction.

The team lost one player in this draft:

Zech Zinicola was drafted away from us by Toronto, who eventually returned him to the Nats without any Toronto appearances. His selection was probably due to Dana Brown‘s hiring in Toronto, going from Washington’s Scouting Director to being a special assistant to the GM in Toronto. Zinicola remained in our farm system until 2013, when he was released.

2010 Rule 5 Draft

Elvin Ramirez, RH reliever, drafted from the New York Mets: he was injured in spring training and spent the entirety of the season on the DL. Interestingly, the team returned him to New York in October, long before they needed to, and with New York this year he made his way to the majors for some appearances. If the team drafted him, why not keep him through spring training of 2012 to see if he was worth keeping? It just seemed odd to give up on the draft pick while procedurally you could still keep him. Verdict: failure.
Brian Broderick, RH Starting Pitcher, Drafted from St. Louis and stuck into the 2011′s bullpen as the long-man/mop-up guy. He was awful, he was costing the team wins, and was eventually returned to St. Louis before May was out. However, St. Louis waived him towards the end of 2012 and we picked him back up. I projected him to be one of our AAA starters in 2013 but he struggled and ended the season in AA and likely will be cut loose this off-season. Verdict: failure.

The team lost one player in the 2010 draft:

The Phillies drafted Michael Martinez away from the Nats, and he stuck on their roster as a backup middle infielder. His batting lines are awful though, and the Nats clearly had depth at middle infield at the time, so losing this player was not that big of a deal. Even now, with his career .187 batting line, he couldn’t have helped us.

2011 Rule 5 Draft

The Nats did not take anyone for the first time in years, but had two players themselves taken. Neither player drafted was a surprise; I posted at the time that I thought both these players should have been protected.

Brad Meyers (RH starting pitcher) was drafted by the New York Yankees, but he suffered an injury in spring training and was DL’d all year. He was returned to the Nats and subsequently missed all of 2013 too. I listed him as a “release candidate” in my 2014 rotation projections, not knowing if he’s healthy or if he can win a AAA rotation spot at this point with the talent we have matriculating upwards.
Erik Komatsu was drafted by St. Louis (in retaliation for our taking Broderick the previous year?), made their 2012 opening day roster, played for a while before being waived, got picked up by Minnesota, and by Memorial Day was returned to Washington in a whirlwind set of transactions. I think he remains a minor league caliber player, with too little offense for a corner outfield position but not enough speed to play center.

2012 Rule 5 Draft

Again, the team did not select anyone but got poached for four players in the major and minor phase.

LHP Danny Rosenbaum was drafted by Colorado to take part in their unique rotation experiment (where guys work up to a certain pitch count each night). Rosenbaum didn’t make the Rockie’s pitching staff out of spring training (somewhat an indictment of Rosenbaum’s skills; Colorado’s rotation was one of the worst in the majors in 2013) and he was returned to Nats. As most readers here know, Rosenbaum toiled in AAA a full season, putting up good but not great numbers, and seems like he’s destined to repeat that season for us again in 2014.
Utility player Jeff Kobernus was drafted by the Boston Red Sox, traded to Tigers and then eventually returned to Nats. Kobernus turned out to be quite the speedster, stealing nearly a base every other game in the minors and earned a call-up to the big team in 2013. At this point the team must feel relatively lucky to have gotten Kobernus back, given his call-up and possible future role as a backup.
In the minor league phase, Nats draft bust Jack McGeary was taken by the Red Sox. He threw 21 ineffective innings in short-A and low-A for Boston in 2013. He’s from Boston, so it was a nice gesture, but it just doesn’t look like he’s ever going to recover from his arm issues. Hey, at least he got his Stanford education and his bonus money.
The Dodgers poached Hector Nelo from the Nats AA team and stuck him on their own AA team … where he promptly made the all-star game again and had another excellent season. I’ll be honest; I do not know the minor league rule-5 protection rules, but I wonder why an all-star player was exposed, no matter what his age.

2013 Rule 5 Draft

Once again, the team did not select anyone in the major league phase. We did lose one player in the MLB phase:

C Adrian Nieto was the 2nd overall pick in the major league phase, by the Chicago White Sox. As commenters noted though, it seemed like an odd pick for the White Sox, who have a couple of younger developing catchers in their system. Meanwhile Nieto has never played above A-ball but did hit .285/.373/.449 this season. Those are pretty good numbers for a catcher … even if he’s an old 24 in A-Ball. I speculated in the comments of other posts that perhaps the White Sox just needed some catching help during the split squad games in 2014’s spring training, because the odds of Nieto sticking on a MLB roster for a full year seem incredibly slim. I didn’t even mention him in my own pre-Rule5 analysis piece for all of this reasoning. Its hard not to see him getting returned to the Nats by April 1st.

In the minor league phase, the Nats took a couple of players for organizational depth: Theo Bowe, a AA outfielder from Cincinnati and Martires Arias, a low-A right-hander from the New York Mets. As mentioned above, these minor league acquisitions are essentially $12,000 purchases and the Nats now own these contracts.

Summary: we’ve drafted 10 guys in the MLB phase Rule 5 draft since 2005, and I’d classify 9 of the 10 draftees as eventual failures. Not a great track record. Plus its safe to say that most every player drafted FROM us has been a failure for the drafting team (the exceptions perhaps being Martinez or possibly Nelo). Clearly the Rule 5 draft isn’t a great way to reliably find players. Why do we do so much analysis on it? I dunno, because its fun? Because its December and we’re desperate for Baseball news? Fair enough 🙂

Written by Todd Boss

January 7th, 2014 at 8:48 am

GCL/Rookie Pitching Staff Year in Review; 2013

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Giolito was the story of the GCL for the 2nd straight year. Photo unk via federalbaseball.com

This is the 7th and final in the 2013 Pitching staff review series. I don’t like double posting stuff this comprehensive but I wanted to get this out before the w/e. This is the review of the GCL/Rookie league’s pitching staff for 2013. Other parts of the 2013 series:

For some historical perspective, here’s 2012’s version (Lucas Giolito was the feature pitcher) and 2011’s version (Jack McGeary the feature pitcher) of this post specifically for Auburn/Short-A. Yes, Giolito was the GCL “man of the year” for the second year in a row. This may be unfair to many of the DSL grads who pitched great for the GCL this year, especially the likes of Jefry Rodriguez and Wander Suero. Also; good luck finding a picture of Jefry Rodriguez to use for your blog; any google search with “Rodriguez” and “baseball” is so over-inundated with pictures of more famous Rodriguez’ (Alex, Ivan, even Henry) that I gave up looking.

All stats are courtesy of either milb.com’s GCL’s 2013 Stats page or via Fangraph’s GCL 2013 page. Also useful here are the Big Board and the Nats Draft Tracker since so many of these lower-minors guys are recent draftees.

A caveat before starting this post: this is short-season ball, so nobody’s got more than a few dozen innings. The staff leader had 49 innings. So yes this is absolutely going to be some “Small Sample Size” analysis. Which in some cases is unfair to the player (to the good or to the bad). It is what it is.

GCL starters. The rotation started the season with Suero, Jefry Rodriguez, Silvestre, Voth and Valdez. It ended with JRodriguez, Silvestre, Suero, Ott and a slew of 5th/6th starters here and there. Lets take a look at the starters:

Wander Suero dominated the GCL this year, throwing lots of 4-5 innings outings in relief of other “starters” and leading the team in IP. Final numbers: 8-1 with a 1.65 ERA. His first season in the USA after 3 DSL seasons was a huge success and his age (22) should help him move upwards. Outlook for next season: Low-A bullpen/spot-starter.
Jefry Rodriguez was the opening day starter and made 12 starts all told for the GCL, going 3-0 with a 2.45 ERA anda a 43/20 K/BB ratio in 48 innings. The 19-yr old DSL graduate looked great all year, even if he averaged only about 4 innings an outing. He improved his K/BB rate marketdly from his 2012 DSL season and should keep on moving upwards. Outlook for next season: XST and then Short-A rotation (I don’t think he can crack the low-A rotation).
Hector Silvestre was the staff ace, going 7-0 with a 1.82 ERA in 13 games (8 starts) over a team leading 49 1/3 innings. He was absolutely dominant all August, throwing 26 scoreless innings to finish out the year (including the playoffs). The 20-year old lefty has a ton of potential. Outlook for next season: XST and then Short-A rotation.
Austin Voth had two quick outings in the GCL before moving on up to Auburn. See the short-A writeup for more. Outlook for next season: Low-A rotation.
Philips Valdez had a few starts but worked mostly out of the pen en route to a dominant 1.95 ERA and 0.87 whip in 32 IP. He’s another older DSL signee who, like Suero, could make an impact a couple levels above GCL next year. Outlook for next season: Low-A bullpen competition, perhaps falling back to Short-A.
Nick Pivetta started 3 games in Viera but averaged less than 4 innings a start before getting bounced up to Auburn. See the short-A writeup for more. Outlook for next season: Low-A bullpen.
Deion Williams failed in Auburn and got just 13 innings in the GCL this year. He’s young (just turned 21) so he has a bit of time to sort things out. Outlook for next season: XST and another shot at Short-A in the bullpen.
Lucas Giolito went 2-1, 1.94 ERA with 39/14 k/bb in 36 2/3 innings, 28 hits mostly in the GCL. All Nats prospect fans should know of Giolito’s status these days; he has come back from surgery, pitched effectively in the rookie league and was lights out in 3 starts in short-A (one run conceded in 14 innings). Per comments and scouting reports his velocity is back, he seems healthy, and he could be just a season away from being breathlessly talked about as one of the best prospects in the game. Outlook for next season: Low-A rotation.
Travis Ott went 3-0, 4.03 ERA with 32/12 K/BB in 29 innings in the GCL, 24 hits. The rare mid-20s round high schooler who signs, Ott was used as a starter in the GCL and was mostly good all year. His seasonal numbers were skewed by one bad outing where he gave up 6 earned runs in 1 2/3 innings in mid-July. This tall, lanky left-hander (6’4″ 170lbs) seemingly has room to grow and is very young; he turned 18 at the end of June. Looks like the Nats might have a find here. Outlook for next season: XST and repeating GCL; he’s only 18 and could use the seasoning.
A slew of relievers got one start here and there; its kind of hard to assign GCL guys to “the rotation” when they get a start and only pitch 3 innings. Instead, they’re discussed in the reliever section.
Rehabbing Starters from other levels: Brad Meyers got two re-hab starts for GCL this year, Chris Young, Ryan Mattheus, Cole Kimball, and Sammy Solis got one each.

GCL Relievers: this section is done mostly by IP, though we’ll start with the clear “closer” for the GCL Nats.

Jake Walsh got 8 saves in 16 games, posting a 1.40 ERA with 17/5 K/BB in 19 1/3 innings closing in the Rookie League. He was promoted to Hagerstown on 9/3/13 to provide lefty bullpen coverage in the playoffs. He was probably too old and too experienced for the rookie league but showed enough promise to get a two-level call-up for the post-season. Outlook for next season: low-A bullpen loogy competition.
Kelvin Rodriguez was a middle reliever for the GCL nats, throwing 29 innings across 13 outings and posting a 3.07 ERA. He wasn’t quite as dominant as some of his DSL graduates, and I suspect it will keep him (despite his age) in XST to start 2014. Outlook for next season: XST and then Short-A bullpen.
Matt Derosier was 2-1, 2.43 ERA with 20/5 K/BB in 19 relief innings mostly in the GCL, 24 hits. Derosier may have been a Juco guy but he’s young; he turned 19 in July of this year. After a brief stint to start the season in Auburn he pitched in middle relief for the GCL Nats, getting at least 4 long enough stints to earn a “grade” in my monthly starter grades. He posted good, solid numbers, nothing flashy, nothing bad. A 4/1 K/BB ratio is great. He’ll move up next year, looking to stick as a younger member of the bullpen in short-A. Outlook for next season: short-A bullpen.
David Ramos posted an ugly 6.35 ERA in 22 middle relief innings for the GCL Nats. His first state-side season could be his last, given his age (22). Outlook for next season: XST and repeating the GCL bullpen, release candidate.
Joey Webb went 2-0, 1.89 ERA with 25/6 K/BB in 19 innings in the GCL, 13 hits. Webb comes from a very small baseball school (NAIA’s Menlo College in California) and may not have been ready to compete with a bunch of Division I guys in Short-A, despite already being 23. Outlook for next season: short-A bullpen.
Elliott Waterman bounced down and then back out of the GCL this year. See the short-A write-up for more. Outlook for next season: Low-A bullpen loogy competition, release candidate.
Niko Spezial went 1-0, 3.32 ERA with 21/8 K/BB in 19 relief innings mostly in the GCL, 16 hits. Spezial started the season with Auburn but got the quick demotion after just 3 1/3 relatively non-descript innings. A college senior draftee, he did not belong in the rookie league. Nonetheless he pitched effectively for the record-setting GCL Nats. Spezial needs to show how he fares against someone his own age, which hopefully he’ll get a chance to do in 2014. Outlook for next season: short-A bullpen, release candidate.
Michael Boyden posted a 4.61 ERA with 15/14 K/BB in 13 2/3 innings, 17 hits for GCL. 14 walks and 17 hits equates with a balloned 2.27 whip for this 23-year old in the rookie league (which means he’s likely throwing against guys 4-5 years younger than he is). It is hard to understand why he was back in the GCL after having shown he could handle Short-A in 2012. Either way, his control issues from last year caught up with him in 2013 and I don’t think he’ll be long for the organization. Outlook for next season: Low-A bullpen loogy competition, release candidate.
Ryan Ullmann started in the rookie league, being a senior coming from an NAIA school, but by season’s end he was in the Auburn rotation. See the short-A write-up for more. Outlook for next season: Low-A bullpen.
Cory Bafidis briefly worked in the GCL bullpen. See the short-A write-up for more Outlook for next season: Low-A bullpen.
Justin Thomas threw 3 innings in Viera during his tour of the Nats farm system in 2013. See low-A post for more. Outlook for next season: High-A bullpen competition.
Other Relievers who got 10 IP or less:
- Rehabbing relievers from other levels: Pat Lehman, Rafael Martin, Cameron Selik, Brian Broderick, each of whom got a handful of innings.
- Mike Sylvestri was dominant in his 9 innings of GCL work after getting demoted from Auburn. See Short-A write-up for more.
- Luis Reyes was called up from the DSL to make an appearance in late August; he gave up 3 runs on 4 hits in 4 innings and was sent back to the D.R.
- Andrew Cooper threw 2 innings in Viera then bounced up to Auburn. See Short-A write-up for more.
- John Simms threw 2 innings in Viera then bounced up to Auburn. See Short-A write-up for more.
- Lastly, infielder Kyle Attl threw 1/3 of an inning somewhere along the line, giving up a homer before getting an out for an ERA of 27 and a FIP of 42.20 on the season.

Summary

The GCL Nat’s record breaking season was borne on the backs of a slew of arms rising to the GCL from the DSL, and despite some of them being slightly “old” for the level they helped the team achieve greatness in 2013. This also marks a great collection of DSL graduates that should start matriculating upwards, moreso than we’ve had to follow in quite a while.

(Editor’s Note: I corrected Jefry Rodriguez’ name after the fact; thanks to commenter Melissa).

Written by Todd Boss

December 20th, 2013 at 12:49 pm

Harrisburg/AA Pitching Staff Year in Review; 2013

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Nathan Karns was the story of the year for AA Harrisburg’s squad. Photo Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

This is the 3rd in the 2013 Pitching staff review series, here’s a review of Harrisburg/AA’s pitching staff for 2013. Other parts of the 2013 series: Washington/MLB’s 2013 review and Syracuse/AAA’s 2013 review.

For some historical perspective, here’s 2012’s version (featuring Danny Rosenbaum) and 2011’s version (featuring Brad Peacock) of this post specifically for Harrisburg/AA.

All stats are courtesy of either milb.com’s Harrisburg 2013 Stats page or via Fangraph’s Harrisburg Stats page. Also useful here are the Big Board and the Nats Draft Tracker.

Harrisburg starters. The rotation started the season with Broderick, Treinen, Demny, Clay and Karns. It ended with Karns, Cole, Treinen, Hill and Ray. There were quite a few changes along the way. Lets take a look at the AA starters:

Brian Broderick got the opening day start for Harrisburg but didn’t last very long, giving the team 7 mostly bad starts before hitting the D/L. He got one more rehab start in the GCL and ended the season (I believe) on Potomac’s D/L list. It doesn’t matter; Broderick’s time with the organization is likely done after quite a whirlwind trip; he was a 2010 rule-5 draftee from St. Louis who pitched for our MLB squad for nearly two months before being jettisoned back to the Cardinals. St. Louis eventually waived him and we grabbed him in July 2012. He toiled for AA last year and started there again this year. Outlook for next season: MLFA, with another organization or perhaps out of affiliated baseball.
Blake Treinen, aka one of the “other guys” in the Michael Morse trade, quietly put together a pretty good season for the Senators. In 21 games and 118 innings he had a 3.64 ERA and a nearly an identical 3.67 FIP. He’s not a strike out guy (86 in 118 innings for a 6.5 K/9 rate, and he gave up more base-runners than you’d like to see (1.33 whip), which is odd considering his pedigree as one of the hardest throwers in the Nats farm system. He missed a chunk of time this season with two separate D/L trips but made it back just in time to get hammered as the 4th starter in the playoffs. I projected Treinen as an eventual back-of-the-bullpen arm thanks to his velocity, but for the time being the team should want to see if he can continue to develop as a starter. Outlook for next season: back in AA as a starter, looking to push to AAA mid-season.
Paul Demny got 15 incredibly inconsistent starts for Harrisburg this year before a D/L trip resulted in his losing his rotation spot and then eventually losing his AA spot. He ended the season in Potomac’s rotation but (likely out of respect for what the Potomac guys accomplished this year) did not participate in the High-A playoffs. AA numbers for the year: 5-6, 4.95 ERA but 86 K/s in 83+ innings. Outlook for next season: you have to think that he’s done as a starter, having failed to make the leap to AA for the second year running. I”m predicting he’s in the AA bullpen.
Caleb Clay got 13 AA starts after signing as a MLFA before finishing the year in Syracuse. See the AAA write-up for more. Outlook for next season: in the San Francisco organization.
Nathan Karns followed up his 2012 Nats Minor League Pitcher of the year with a dominant season at AA: 10-6 with a 3.26 ERA and 155 Ks in 132 innings. He was the first minor league reinforcement starter to get the call-up to the majors this year. (here’s my “first look” post at his 5/28/13 debut). In three MLB starts he got hit hard and was eventually returned (after an 11 day layoff) to the AA rotation. He finished the season strong and got one great playoff win, but was hammered in the season-ending championship for a sour end to a great season. Nonetheless, we saw the potential and the organization’s patience has been rewarded. For now Karns remains a starter. Outlook for next season: AAA rotation.
Rob Gilliam ended up being the primary 6th starter/swing-man for Harrisburg this year, covering in the rotation as its original members got promoted, injured or demoted. The “forgotten man” in the big Gio Gonzalez trade, Gilliam gave the Senators 18 starts and 90 innings of 4.40 ERA ball this year. Nothing great but nothing awful; right now I see no reason to think he’s not going to serve in a similar same innings-eating role next year. Outlook for next season: AA swing-man/spot-starter.
Taylor Hill had an exceptional season, stepping up from a guy who was throwing 5.00 ERA ball in low-A at the beginning of 2012 to a guy who was making a name for himself with sub 3.00 ERA pitching in AA by the end of 2013. He earned a promotion out of Potomac with 14 excellent starts and continued the same work in AA. His K/9 isn’t phenomenal (around 5.5 K/9 between both levels) and his FIPs show that his ERA was a bit lucky at both levels (3.38 FIP in high-A, 4.06 in AA) but the guy clearly knows how to pitch. I think he’ll be a key man in the AA rotation next year. Outlook for next season: AA rotation.
Robbie Ray showed why I kept my faith in him despite his 6.56 ERA blow-up in Potomac in 2012. He dominated high-A in the first half of the season (10.71 K/9 in 16 High-A starts) and continued the great work as one of the youngest starters in all of AA by the time the season was over. Final AA numbers: 5-2, 3.72 ERA, 3.42 whip with 60 K’s in 58 innings. As we all know by now, Ray was the feature player in the Doug Fister acquisition and clearly made a huge impression on the Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski. I’m sorry to see him go but I’m happy with the return he brought back. Outlook for next season: in the Detroit organization.
Taylor Jordan passed through AA during his dream 2013 season, going 7-0 with a0.83 ERA in 9 appearances. See Washington write-up for more. Outlook for next season: AAA rotation.
A. J. Cole continued the trend of Potomac pitchers earning promotions, becoming the 5th of 5 starters who began the year in Potomac to matriculate to AA. He did not disappoint, going 4-2 with a 2.18 ERA and greater than a K/inning to solidify his status as one of the top prospects in the organization. The Michael Morse trade that engineered his return is looking better and better for the team. Outlook for next season: AA rotation to start, looking for a mid-season promotion to AAA.
Other guys who got spot starts here and there:
- Matt Swynenberg got a few spot-starts heare and there; see the reliever section.
- Ryan Tatusko dropped down to give AA a spot start; see AAA post.
- Trevor Holder and Tyler Herron each got a spot start but were primarily relievers; see the reliever section.

Harrisburg Relievers: taking a look at the relief corps at the end of the season. We’ll start with the closers and then run down the relievers by innings pitched.

Aaron Barrett was the primary closer for Harrisburg, earning 26 saves, striking out 69 in 50 innings and posting a 2.15 ERA. His FIP was significantly lower (1.87) thanks to an inflated BABIP for the year. Barrett’s performance on the year necessitated his protection on the 40-man roster: he was added in November ahead of the rule-5 draft. His late August injury does not seem to be that threatening; the organization clearly thinks he’s got potential to help and i’m sure he’ll feature at some point in 2014 to cover for bullpen injuries. Outlook for next season: AAA bullpen, likely the closer again.
Tyler Herron is an interesting case: signed out of the independent leagues, he had not appeared in affiliated ball since 2009. He quickly showed he was too good for High-A and stuck around as a back of the bullpen guy in Harrisburg the rest of the season, taking over for Barrett when he hit the D/L in August. Final season stats: 6-2, 5 saves, a 3.11 ERA, and an even better FIP. Even better: 58 K’s in just 46 1/3 innings. He proved to be a very versatile arm for this team. Despite the fact that he was a MLFA signing last off-season, he’s not listed on BA’s MLFA list for this off-season; is he still with the organization? I hope so: I think he can be useful going forward. Outlook for next season: AAA bullpen, if he’s still with the org.
Matt Swynenberg served as a longer reliever out of the bullpen and posted a 3.16 ERA in 74 innings over 36 appearances and 4 starts. He continues his steady progression up the organization but remains off the prospect-radar. He’s been rule-5 eligible two years running now and hasn’t been sniffed. He enters his last year of pre-MLFA possibly topped out in the organization thanks to a numbers game in the AAA bullpen. Outlook for next season: AA bullpen.
Neil Holland was another big arm in the Harrisburg bullpen this year, posting 63 K’s in 50 relief innings to the tune of a 2.84 ERA/2.43 FIP. Holland was a 2010 draftee who was Rule-5 eligible this year, but he slipped through the cracks and the Nats get to keep him off the 40-man roster for one more season. He’s under-sized but has put up great numbers wherever he’s been; it is just a matter of time before he gets his shot. Outlook for next season: AA bullpen to start, with a good likelihood of moving up soon.
Pat McCoy failed to make the jump from AA to AAA and was demoted back to Harrisburg after 7 ineffective AAA appearances. Repeating AA for the third year, he posted a 4.32 ERA in 41 middle relief innings. He exhaused his 6 years in the organization and has already signed elsewhere for 2014. Outlook for next season: in the Detroit organization.
Matt Grace was one of NINE hurlers who earned promotions out of Potomac this year, and could be the next “sneaky good loogy” prospect that the organization develops. He transitioned away from starting after the 2011 season and has seen his numbers improve. In 38 AA innings this year he posted a 3.79 ERA but better looking 2.88 FIP. He has good control but seems hittable; his career BABIP is especially high. As with Holland, Grace passed through his first year of Rule-5 eligibility this year without any interest; he needs to push for a AAA promotion to get onto the MLB radar in 2014. Outlook for next season: AA bullpen to continue as the lefty matchup guy.
Ian Krol exploded onto the scene for the organization, giving up just 2 earned runs in his first 21 appearances for Harrsiburg and getting a surprise call-up in June. See the MLB write-up for more. Outlook for next season: in Detroit’s organization
Ryan Perry started the year in the AAA rotation under the National’s grand plan to make him a starter, and the experiment failed. 8 starts later, he boasted a 7.93 ERA. He hit the D/L, then was demoted to Harrisburg. There, he was outrighted off the 40-man roster and returned to the bullpen, where he was mediocre (4.43 ERA). Outlook for next season: he has to show he can get AA hitters out; you have to think he’s starting in the AA bullpen again.
Richie Mirowski continues to impress; he has never posted an ERA above 2.61 at any level he’s appeared. Not bad for a college senior draftee from a no-name college in the 45th round who likely signed for a bonus small enough to fit into the scout’s wallet who brought him his paperwork. He posted a 1.50 ERA across 48 high-A innings and earned his promotion. For Harrisburg he had a 12.63 K/9 rate in 20 innings and posted a 1.12 FIP in a small later-season sample size. Not too shabby. Outlook for next season: AA bullpen again, looking to force another promotion.
Pat Lehman was sent to AA after being a successful AAA guy in 2012 thanks to a numbers game; he promptly posted a 5.49ERA, got hurt and missed most of the season after just 13 appearances. He did appear in 8 rehab games in the rookie league in August but did not make it back out of Florida. Here’s the problem with Lehman; he has nothing to prove in AA; he already earned his stripes in AAA. But is there enough room for him on the AAA roster in 2014? He enters his 6th pro season and will face MLFA next year unless he pushes his way to the 40-man roster. Outlook for next season: AAA bullpen competition, a possible release candidate?
Marcos Frias posted a 6.16 ERA in 19 innings and was dumped back to High-A. There he posted an even worse 7.59 ERA and was released mid-season. Outlook for next season: in another organization or out of baseball.
Trevor Holder was repeating AA and had posted respectable numbers through the first month of the season when he was suddenly released to make room for Taylor Jordan‘s promotion on 5/8/13. I was shocked; we were talking about a 3rd round pick after all. He was immediately picked up by San Diego and possibly proved why the organization knows more than we do; he dropped down to high-A and was lit up in the California league (a 6.39 ERA in 100 innings). Now, its the California league (land of small ball parks and high altitudes) so the numbers are inflated (just look at what happened to A.J. Cole out there in 2012), but the story remains the same; Holder’s high draft pick was viewed at the time as the Nats “punting” on the pick to save money, and Holder never really proved anyone wrong. Outlook for next season: in San Diego’s organization.
Michael Broadway started in Harrisburg and quickly earned a promotion to Syracuse. See the AAA writeup for more. Outlook for next season: in the Toronto organization.
Bill Bray returned to the organization that drafted him, and returned to his “home” team; he grew up in Virginia Beach, went to William & Mary and in a bit of a personal interest item is cousins with a friend of mine; he was counting on him making the MLB team and reaping the benefits of free tickets for family and friends :-). However he struggled in the spring and was sent to minor league camp. He stuck around Viera to work on his mechanics, finally got to Harrisburg and then, after just four outings, suffered a season-ending shoulder injury. He’s a MLFA again this off-season and it remains to be seen where he picks up. I’d like to see him back here again, but Bray’s representatives have to be looking at the crowded bullpen and may suggest he continue his career elsewhere. That is if he can recover from his latest injury. To say that Bray has “unconventional” mechanics would be an understatement, and it is no shock that he’s struggled with arm issues his whole career. Outlook for next season: MLFA, in another organization.
Other Relievers who appeared in AA of note:
- Christian Garcia pitched 4 rehab innings during his rehab tour of the organization. See AAA write-up for more.
- Ryan Mattheus pitched 4 innings of rehab over three games recovering from his broken hand. See the MLB write-up for more.
- Brian Rauh got a one-game call-up to provide bullpen cover. See the high-A write-up for more.
- Rob Wort pitched 3 AA innings before getting demoted to Potomac, where he spent the rest of the year. See the high-A write-up for more.
- Jose Lozada is normally a SS; he pitched one inning somewhere along the line in what likely was a blow-out loss.

Summary

Harrisburg got a ton of really good pitching this year, both from the starters and from the relievers. And a ton of it matriculated up over the course of the year from Potomac. Three guys on this squad jumped straight to the majors, and it isn’t hard to see another couple of these guys getting MLB debuts in 2014.

Written by Todd Boss

December 17th, 2013 at 8:48 am

Minor League Pitching Age Appropriateness for 2013

3 comments

Yunesky Maya is “Really Old” for AAA; but does it matter? Photo unknown

A recurring statement that you often hear when talking about prospects in the minors is “Age Appropriateness” for the level in which the player is playing. And for good reason; a seasoned minor league player who is playing against younger, weaker competition should have dominant numbers, and when analyzing that player’s performance this should be taken into account. On the flip side, if a guy advances quickly up the minors and is a “youngster” at a high level and performs poorly, he shouldn’t immediately be written off, since he’s likely overmatched and needs time to “grow” into the level.

This topic comes up here often when talking about pitchers and their performances, and I frequently talk about a guy “being old” or “being young” for his level as a way to either discount good performances or explain away poor ones. But what is “Too old for a level?”

I have always used a rule-of-thumb measurement advocated by John Sickels at minorleagueball.com for looking at player ages (I cannot find the original Sickels posting but have seen it attributed to him in several forums). That rule-of-thumb is as follows:

AAA: Typical Age range is 23-24. Age 25 depends. 26+ is old
AA: 22-23. 24 depends. 25+ is old
High-A: 20-22. 23 depends. 24+ is old
Low-A: 19-21. 22 depends. 23+ is old
Short-A: 19-20. 21/22 for draft year guys only. 22+ is old
GCL: 17-19. 20 for draft year guys only. 21+ is old

Now, the caveats to the above are as follows:

1. This is specifically worried about prospect development; clearly we know that a former major leaguer on a minor league free agent contract in AAA is going to look like he’s really “old” for the level when we need understand his presence there differently. A rising prospect who is in AAA at the age of 26 or 27 who hasn’t made it to the majors yet is absolutely “old” and is probably closer to minor league free agency or a release than he is to making the big team.

2. Injuries matter. If a college grad loses a year to TJ surgery and then is sitting in high-A as a 24 year old in his second pro season (think Nathan Karns) you can’t really hold that against him. But if he’s dominant, you can sort of explain why and say that he needs to be moved up.

Luke Erickson (with Brian Oliver‘s help) came up with similar looking ranges for the various levels and have made it a link off the main page of NationalsProspects.com. And I talked about this topic a couple of years ago in this space in advance of this same analysis, which I last performed in 2011.

Without further ado, here’s a look at the actual age ranges of the Nationals four full season minor league teams as they stood on 2013’s Opening Day (yes, i’ve had this data in the can for a month and a half and am just getting around to publishing it). I last did this analysis two years ago and it is interesting to see how the age ranges have changed slightly over the years. Here’s 2011’s and 2013’s ranges (click here for a Google spreadsheet of all the detail to check my work and do your own sorting; this link is also in the Links to the right):

2011	AAA	AA	High-A	Low-A
Really Young	25.54 or younger	24.44 or younger	22.65 or younger	21.88 or younger
Young	25.54 – 26.93	24.44 – 25.37	22.65 – 23.83	21.88 – 22.84
Old	26.93 – 28.79	25.37 – 26.65	23.83 – 24.77	22.84 – 23.65
Really Old	28.79 or older	26.65 or older	24.77 or older	23.65 or older

2013	AAA	AA	High-A	Low-A
Really Young	25.91 or younger	24.02 or younger	23.08 or younger	21.69 or younger
Young	25.92 – 27.75	24.02 – 25.17	23.08 – 24.00	21.69 – 22.66
Old	27.75 – 30.35	25.17 – 26.84	24.00 – 24.91	22.66 – 23.39
Really Old	30.35 or older	26.84 or older	24.91 or older	23.39 or older

Data Taxonomy: I’ve taken every pitcher on every team’s roster in each of the four leagues that the Nats have farm teams in (AAA = International, AA = Eastern, High-A = Carolina, Low-A = South Atlantic), put them into a spreadsheet, calculated their ages at the end of this season (9/1/13) and then calculated the four quartile figures in terms of age. I only used pitchers in our leagues as opposed to the entire level across all of baseball thinking that different leagues may have different needs (I’m thinking how the California League and the Pacific Coast League has so many hitters parks and thus the pitchers may linger there longer, skewing the numbers). I also standardized the numbers to be at the end of the season as opposed to the beginning, so that people can talk about a player’s “Age 25 season” for example.

So (using 2013’s AAA as an example): the 25th percentile age is 25.91, the 50th percentile or median age is 27.75, the 75th percentile age is 30.35. For ease of labeling, anyone in the lowest quartile is “Really Young” for that level, 25th-50th is “Young,” 50th-75th is “Old” and anyone in the 75th percentile or higher is labeled “Really Old.” I know some don’t like these labels; if someone just moves past the 50th percentile they go from being “Young” to “Old” in a hurry. But I have to draw the lines somewhere. The fractions are represented as fractions of an entire year of days, so .91 is 91/100ths of 365 days old. This say, as opposed to the way that MLB service time is represented in Years.Days and you see numbers like “1.113.”

Looking at 2011 to 2013’s changes: notice how AAA is getting much older. I think that is due to so many teams giving non-guaranteed MLFA deals to former starters and relievers and stashing them in AAA. Look at our own team: we’ve got guys like Chris Young, Fernando Abad, and JC Romero all in their 30s, skewing the numbers northward. Meanwhile both AA has gotten slightly younger; its median age has dropped slightly.

Here’s a look at the Nationals’ four full season minor league pitching staffs, with the ages listed and the “age appropriate” label given. Note that I did this right at the beginning of the season so I havn’t captured all the moves made in the last month.

AAA Syracuse

Team	Name	DOB	Age as of 9/1/13	Age Status
Syracuse (Washington)	Bill Bray	6/5/1983	30.24	Old
Syracuse (Washington)	Cole Kimball	8/1/1985	28.08	Old
Syracuse (Washington)	Brad Meyers	9/13/1985	27.97	Old
Syracuse (Washington)	Matt Torra	6/29/1984	29.17	Old
Syracuse (Washington)	Sean West	6/15/1986	27.21	Young
Syracuse (Washington)	Jeremy Accardo	12/8/1981	31.73	Really Old
Syracuse (Washington)	Jeff Mandel	4/30/1985	28.34	Old
Syracuse (Washington)	Patrick McCoy	8/3/1988	25.08	Really Young
Syracuse (Washington)	J.C. Romero	6/4/1976	37.24	Really Old
Syracuse (Washington)	Michael Crotta	9/25/1984	28.93	Old
Syracuse (Washington)	Bobby Bramhall	7/13/1985	28.14	Old
Syracuse (Washington)	Tanner Roark	10/5/1986	26.91	Young
Syracuse (Washington)	Ryan Tatusko	3/27/1985	28.43	Old
Syracuse (Washington)	Daniel Rosenbaum	10/10/1987	25.89	Really Young
Syracuse (Washington)	Ross Ohlendorf	8/8/1982	31.07	Really Old
Syracuse (Washington)	Fernando Abad	12/17/1985	27.71	Young
Syracuse (Washington)	Erik Davis	10/8/1986	26.90	Young
Syracuse (Washington)	Yunesky Maya	8/28/1981	32.01	Really Old
Syracuse (Washington)	Ryan Perry	2/13/1987	26.55	Young
Syracuse (Washington)	Chris Young	5/25/1979	34.27	Really Old

Discussion: Our “really old” guys are no surprise; they’re all basically guys on MLFA contracts. Well, and Yunesky Maya, who is just playing out the string at this point. I’m more interested in the “prospects” who are in AAA and their age status, and they mostly look good. Pat McCoy and Danny Rosenbaum both rate as really young for the level. Erik Davis and Ryan Perry both rate as young, even despite Perry’s MLB experience. Otherwise are there even other “prospects” worth analyzing on the Syracuse roster at this point? It seems that most everyone else on this team is a backup starter or a backup loogy.

Oldest Guy in the Int’l League: Miguel Batista with Toronto’s AAA affilliate. Yes our own Mr. Batista from two years ago, still hanging around. He’s yet to get called back up in 2013. Ironically the 2nd oldest guy in AAA is also on Buffalo and is also an ex-Nat: Ramon Ortiz, who has gotten called up to help cover for Toronto’s injury-devistated staff and has a couple of apperances already.

Youngest Guy in the Intl’ League: Giovanni Soto with Cleveland’s AAA affilliate in Columbus. He’s not considered a high-end prospect; he’s just a guy drafted out of HS who has made his way level-by-level and is now 22 in AAA. The 2nd youngest guy in AAA is a more familiar name (Trevor Bauer, also with Cleveland’s team) and the ten youngest pitchers in the league reads like a top-50 Pitching prospects list MLB-wide.

Percentage of Int’l League pitchers on MLB 40-man rosters: 65/210 or 30.9%. This shows just how much AAA is turning into a spare-parts holding league.

AA Harrisburg

Team	Name	DOB	Age as of 9/1/13	Age Status
Harrisburg (Washington)	Adam Olbrychowski	9/7/1986	26.98	Really Old
Harrisburg (Washington)	Sammy Solis	8/10/1988	25.06	Young
Harrisburg (Washington)	Rafael Martin	5/16/1984	29.30	Really Old
Harrisburg (Washington)	Cameron Selik	8/25/1987	26.02	Old
Harrisburg (Washington)	Paul Demny	8/3/1989	24.08	Young
Harrisburg (Washington)	Marcos Frias	12/19/1988	24.70	Young
Harrisburg (Washington)	Brian Broderick	9/1/1986	27.00	Really Old
Harrisburg (Washington)	Trevor Holder	1/8/1987	26.65	Old
Harrisburg (Washington)	Aaron Barrett	1/2/1988	25.66	Old
Harrisburg (Washington)	Caleb Clay	2/15/1988	25.54	Old
Harrisburg (Washington)	Neil Holland	8/14/1988	25.05	Young
Harrisburg (Washington)	Rob Wort	2/7/1989	24.56	Young
Harrisburg (Washington)	Pat Lehman	10/18/1986	26.87	Really Old
Harrisburg (Washington)	Matt Swynenberg	2/16/1989	24.54	Young
Harrisburg (Washington)	Ian Krol	5/9/1991	22.32	Really Young
Harrisburg (Washington)	Blake Treinen	6/30/1988	25.17	Young
Harrisburg (Washington)	Nathan Karns	11/25/1987	25.77	Old

Borrowing from my Monthly check-in on the Minor League staffs, who are we really interested in on this roster? The rotation is Broderick, Treinen, Demny, Clay and Karns. Broderick is really old for the level, but we already knew that (considering he was in the majors as our Rule-5 draftee two years ago). Karns and Clay are “old” for the level but not overly so; the median age is 25.17 and they’re 25.77 and 25.54 respectively. So just a few months older than the median. Not bad considering Karns basically lost two years of development time due to injuries. When the team gets Solis back, he’ll still be young. And most interestingly is Ian Krol who is the 4th youngest guy in the Eastern League but has dominant numbers thus far in 2013. Most of the “really old” guys are relievers who most would agree are “Org guys” and will naturally fall of the roster when their 6-year FA period arrives.

Oldest Guy in the Eastern League: Willie Collazo on Toronto’s AA team in New Hampshire, who had four years in the PCL and likely is only on a AA roster as a procedural location since he started the season on the DL. In fact, most of that team’s roster is among the 20 oldest guys in the league. And as with the AAA team there are ex-Nats all over their rosters. I think we’re seeing the effects of former Nats front-office member Dana Brown now in Toronto helping to shape their minor league roster with guys he’s familiar with.

Youngest Guy in the Eastern League: One Dylan Bundy, Baltimore farm-hand who already has MLB innings and who some thought could have broken camp with the Orioles. Unfortunatley for Bundy, he’s been sidelined with shoulder issues all year. But he’s clearly an up-and-coming talent. The 2nd youngest guy in the Eastern league is also a big-time prospect: Jamison Taillon in Pittsburgh’s org. In fact, when Taillon and his fellow uber-prospect Gerrit Cole matriculate to the majors, Pittsburgh is going to suddenly find themselves with one of the league’s elite pitching staffs.

Percentage of Eastern League pitchers on MLB 40-man rosters: 15/182 or 8.24%. Just a handful (Nathan Karns is one, Bundy is one).

High-A Potomac

Team	Name	DOB	Age as of 9/1/13	Age Status
Potomac (Washington)	Paul Applebee	5/17/1988	25.29	Really Old
Potomac (Washington)	Robert Gilliam	11/29/1987	25.76	Really Old
Potomac (Washington)	Josh Smoker	11/26/1988	24.76	Old
Potomac (Washington)	Matthew Grace	12/14/1988	24.71	Old
Potomac (Washington)	Robbie Ray	10/1/1991	21.92	Really Young
Potomac (Washington)	Colin Bates	3/10/1988	25.48	Really Old
Potomac (Washington)	A.J. Cole	1/5/1992	21.66	Really Young
Potomac (Washington)	Ben Hawkins	11/4/1989	23.82	Young
Potomac (Washington)	Tyler Herron	8/5/1986	27.07	Really Old
Potomac (Washington)	Gregory Holt	6/19/1989	24.20	Old
Potomac (Washington)	Taylor Jordan	1/17/1989	24.62	Old
Potomac (Washington)	Christian Meza	8/3/1990	23.08	Really Young
Potomac (Washington)	Richie Mirowski	4/30/1989	24.34	Old
Potomac (Washington)	Derek Self	1/14/1990	23.63	Young
Potomac (Washington)	Taylor Hill	3/12/1989	24.47	Old
Potomac (Washington)	Kylin Turnbull	9/12/1989	23.97	Young

Discussion: Our starters at the time of this writing in Potomac are Ray, Jordan, Schwartz, Cole and Hill. Schwartz wasn’t on this roster when I did the cut-n-paste jobs but he’s almost the same identical age as the man he replaced Turnbull. Ray and Cole still rate as “Really Young” (they’re the 7th and 10th youngest guys in the Carolina league) despite both guys repeating this level, a testament to just how young these guys were LAST year. Jordan rates as “old” but with the injury caveat. Hill is four months older than the median age so frankly he’s right on schedule. By and large though this is an older staff, which to me is indicative of the college-heavy pitcher drafts Mike Rizzo has done the last few years. All of our staffs are going to trend old.

Oldest/Youngest Guys in Carolina League: Baltimore’s Frederick affiliate oddly has the two youngest guys (Eduardo Rodriguez, Zachary Davies) and the two oldest guys (Eunchul Choi and Rob Delaney) in the league. I’ve never heard anything about any of these four, so I can’t really add much commentary here 🙂

Percentage of Carolina pitchers on MLB 40-man rosters: Just 2/115 for 1.74%

Low-A Hagerstown

Team	Name	DOB	Age as of 9/1/13	Age Status
Hagerstown (Washington)	Blake Schwartz	10/9/1989	23.90	Really Old
Hagerstown (Washington)	Brett Mooneyham	1/24/1990	23.60	Really Old
Hagerstown (Washington)	Brian Dupra	12/15/1988	24.71	Really Old
Hagerstown (Washington)	Brian Rauh	7/23/1991	22.11	Young
Hagerstown (Washington)	Bryan Harper	12/29/1989	23.67	Really Old
Hagerstown (Washington)	David Fischer	4/10/1990	23.39	Old
Hagerstown (Washington)	Dean Weaver	5/17/1988	25.29	Really Old
Hagerstown (Washington)	Dixon Anderson	7/2/1989	24.17	Really Old
Hagerstown (Washington)	Ivan Pineyro	9/29/1991	21.92	Young
Hagerstown (Washington)	Matt Purke	7/17/1990	23.13	Old
Hagerstown (Washington)	Pedro Encarnacion	6/26/1991	22.18	Young
Hagerstown (Washington)	Robert Benincasa	9/5/1990	22.99	Old
Hagerstown (Washington)	Ronald Pena	9/19/1991	21.95	Young
Hagerstown (Washington)	Todd Simko	12/5/1988	24.74	Really Old
Hagerstown (Washington)	Travis Henke	7/9/1988	25.15	Really Old
Hagerstown (Washington)	Will Hudgins	2/12/1990	23.55	Really Old
Hagerstown (Washington)	Wirkin Estevez	3/15/1992	21.46	Really Young

Discussion: as with Potomac, 9 of the 17 guys on this staff are in the “Really Old” category, again a testament to the college-heavy arm drafting of late. Even Brett Mooneyham is now on the old side of the league median age, and he’s just got one full pro season under his belt. The one guy listed as “Really Young” is DSL grad Wirkin Estevez

Oldest Guy in the Sally League: Miami’s low-A affiliate in Greensboro has a guy who is already 28 named Miguel Fermin. He’s in low-A because he’s converting to be a Pitcher after 6 years as a middle infielder.

Youngest Guy in the Sally League: Atlanta’s Lucas Sims, their 1st round draft pick from 2012, who hasn’t even turned 19 as of today (but will have by the end of the season). The 2nd youngest is a lefty prep draftee in Baltimore’s system named Josh Hader who has an interesting story thus far; he was a HS draftee in the 19th round who put up great numbers in short-season last year, broke with the low-A team and has a 1.74 ERA through four starts as of the time of this writing. Sounds like a heck of a draft find for Baltimore so far.

Percentage of Sally League pitchers on MLB 40-man rosters: 1 of 196 pitchers. That one? our very own Matt Purke, who at this point, I’m not afraid to say, looks like he could be a draft bust. Not a major one though mind you; the Nats bribed him out of his college commitment with a 3rd round pick but mid first round money in 2011. But that could end up being a lost 3rd round pick unless Purke can show us something this year. In some ways it was a great gamble to get a guy who was 15-0 as a freshman … and “its just money” right? If this kind of draft money allocation were to have happened in the new system, and the team blew its entire wad of money on one injury-prone guy, we’d be much more concerned.

Written by Todd Boss

May 15th, 2013 at 10:30 am

Nationals Arm Race

Archive for the ‘brian broderick’ tag

Nats Rule-5 Draft History (drafted and taken from us); updated for 2019, 2020, 2021

Nats Rule-5 Draft History; updated for 2016

From Nats to Oblivion; Updated for 2015 season and 2016 Assignments

Nats Rule-5 Draft History; updated for 2015

From Nats to Oblivion; Updated for 2014 season

From Nats to Oblivion; Updated for 2013 season

Nats Rule-5 Draft History; updated for 2013

GCL/Rookie Pitching Staff Year in Review; 2013

Harrisburg/AA Pitching Staff Year in Review; 2013

Minor League Pitching Age Appropriateness for 2013

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