Nationals Arm Race

Note: this is a recurring post, and large chunks of the older material is recycled.  I’ve updated the research for older players as needed, getting 2015 updates for everyone on this list still playing.  See here for 2014’s version,  2013’s version, and 2012’s version of this post.

Even though I know most of this data is repeated from last year, I still find myself reading the whole way down just for a crazy trip down memory lane each time I do this post.

Background: many years ago (November 2010) Mark Zuckerman initially posted a fascinating analysis he titled “From Nats to Oblivion.”  It chronicled the astoundingly high number of players that the early incarnations of the Nats were using who, once the Nats released them, never again appeared in a MLB game.  I thought the analysis was so interesting that I kept up the same data and have been keeping it up-to-date with the whereabouts of Nats-to-Oblivion candidates ever since.  So with apologies to Zuckerman for stealing his original idea, here’s an interesting visit to the Nats darker past.

It is nearly impossible for a team to field an entire year’s worth of players who will not fall into this “Oblivion” category.  Every MLB team has guys playing out the string or near retirement, and every MLB team calls up guys through out the season from the minors who eventually show themselves as unable to compete on the MLB level and who never make it back.  So a 0% oblivion measure isn’t a goal.  The best this team has done is 4 players (the 2013 team).  I don’t think the 2015 team will get that low.

For your reminiscing pleasure, here is the summary data updated to the 2014 team:

• 2015: 20 position, 24 pitcher, 44 total.  10/44 = 22.7% candidate ratio right now
• 2014: 22 position, 18 pitchers, 40 total.  5/40 = 12.5% candidate ratio right now
• 2013: 23 position, 21 pitchers, 44 total.  4/44 = 9% candidate ratio right now (thanks Natsochrist for the edit)
• 2012: 24 position, 19 pitchers, 43 total.  6/43 = 13.9% candidate ratio right now
• 2011: 20 position, 24 pitchers, 44 total.  6/44 = 13.6% candidate ratio
• 2010: 20 position, 26 pitchers, 46 total.  12/46 = 26.0% never appeared again
• 2009: 25 position, 30 pitchers, 55 total.  9/55 = 16.3% never appeared again
• 2008: 25 position, 25 pitchers, 50 total.  8/50 = 16% never appeared again
• 2007: 21 position, 26 pitchers, 47 total.  12/47 = 25.5% never appeared again
• 2006: 28 position, 29 pitchers, 57 total.  20/57 = 35% never appeared again
• 2005: 30 position, 25 pitchers, 55 total.  16/55 = 29% never appeared again

Look at the 2006 season; 35% of the players who played for the team that year never played another Major League game.  That’s still astounding to me.  Read on for a detailed look back at some of the very bad players that have put in significant time for this team.

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2015: (9 candidates right now):

Total players used: 20 position, 24 pitcher, 44 total.  19/44 = 20.4% candidate ratio right now.

Here’s my entirely too early list of Nats to Oblivion candidates from the 2015 Nats.  Odds are that this list will be halved by June 1 of 2016 season.  The candidates are listed from most likely to least likely to stay on this list.

Names recently removed: Fister (signed a $7M deal with Houston for 2016).  Thornton (MLFA deal with San Diego and made 25-man roster).  Burriss: signed MLFA with Philly and lead-off against the Nats in their first visit to Philadelphia in the new season.  Added Stammen when he failed to make Cleveland’s 25-man roster in 2016.  Removed Solis when he got called up to cover for injury to Belisle.  Removed Martin when he got called up briefly on 6/27/16.   Removed de los Santos when he got waived, picked up by Cincinnati and appeared for them mid Sept 2016.  Removed all our 2015 prospect-types who all got 2016 call-ups: Turner, Difo, Severino, Grace, Cole.

• Dan Uggla: The Nats were probably his last stand chance in the majors; hit just .183 and was given just 17 ABs the last two months of the season.  Seems unlikely to pick up with a team in 2016 and may be done professionally.
• Reed Johnson: Got picked back up on a MLFA deal by Washington thanks to his utility capabilities, especially since he did show he was recovered from his 2015 injury.  But age is working against him, and the team signed several utility guys to 40-man deals, making it hard on Johnson to get back onto the roster.  Johnson did not make the team out of spring and was released on 4/2/16.  He did not pick up with anyone for 2016 and at age 39 may be retired.
• Casey Janssen: Signed a ML deal with San Diego for 2016 but was released in late Spring Training.  Picked up with Boston in June of 2016, pitched a bit for their Short-A and AAA teams then was released in early August 2016.  At age 35, he may be done.
• Taylor Jordan: passed on the depth chart by guys getting signed (Scherzer), acquired in trade (Ross), and guys just being in the right place at the right time (Roark).  Just like he saw time in 2015 in brief spurts, he likely will again in 2016, but seems like a long shot to be a permanent part of this franchise’ rotation.  In June of 2016, he had a second TJ surgery … and then was released by the club on 6/28/16 to correspond to the Giolito contract addition.  Man, that seems kind of cold to release a guy just after surgery, but his odds of making it back to the majors just took a significant hit.
• David Carpenter: shoulder injury, DFA’d, elected free agency and quickly signed a ML deal with Atlanta for 2016.  However he was cut after just a handful of spring training games; maybe his injury is worse than we thought.  Picked backup on a ML deal with the Los Angeles Angels in May 2016 (which makes sense since they’ve lost most of their pitchers).  Was released from AAA Salt Lake in Mid June 2016 and did not pick back up.  May be finished.
• Taylor Hill: Hill was DFA’d to make room for January 2016 signings and was outrighted to AAA, so he faces longer odds to get back to the majors at this point.  If it comes to it, would you rather go with Hill or the likes of Voth or Giolito at this point?  Hill finished out the year for AAA Syracuse with a 4.60 ERA in 27 starts, but I’d have to say he’s just an innings-eater/org guy now.
• Tyler Moore; hit just .203 in 2015 yet stayed on the active roster the whole year thanks to our ridiculous number of injuries.  A DFA candidate who never has come close to his rookie year production and now has a career .228 BA in 649 PAs.  Signed for 2016, but then waived, outrighted to AAA and traded to Atlanta towards the end of spring training.  Moore missed most of the 2016 season for AAA Gwinnett with injury and did not appear in the majors.
• Craig Stammen: non-tendered after injuring his arm and missing most of 2015; signed a ML deal with Cleveland in 2016 and did not make the team out of camp.  Immediately sent to the AAA D/L list.  He missed a couple of months, rehabbed in AA and spent the rest of the  year for Cleveland’s AAA team in Columbus.
• Aaron Barrett: the odds of him turning into Cole Kimball seems small; an elbow is not a shoulder.  But until he recovers from his 2015 surgery, he’s an Oblivion candidate.  He’ll sit on the 60-day D/L for most of 2016.  In June of 2016, he had a major set-back in his TJ recovery, fracturing his elbow.  This will require another visit to Dr. James Andrews and another surgery.

Note: the one guy DFA’d mid-season 2015 by the Nats (Xavier Cedeno) got purchased by the Dodgers, who then sold him to the Rays 5 days later … and he had 61 appearances with a 2.09 ERA for Tampa Bay this year.  Do you think maybe the team gave up on him too soon?

Outlook for 2015 Oblivion candidates: Most of these guys seem like they have little shot of re-gaining a MLB spot; the first 5 guys are likely retired at this point, the next three (Hill, Moore, Stammen) are off 40-mans and not really pushing for a promotion with their AAA stats, and Barrett faces another year of elbow surgery recovery.

Favorite Nats to Oblivion Story: Dan Uggla.  Uggla was released out of a $13M/year contract from Atlanta and the Nats picked him up for 2015, paying just a MLB minimum on him as middle infield cover/lottery ticket.  Well, Uggla’s luck turned out pretty well as injuries shredded the Nats lineup and Uggla earned a 25-man roster spot.  He played sparingly throughout April but had a massive homer in the epic April 28th come-from-behind 13-12 win over Atlanta, which sparked the Nats (who were just 7-13 at the time) to a 21-6 run.  It was one of just two homers Uggla hit on the year (the other in the last game of the season/his career), and  Uggla played less and less as the team got healthier.  For the year he hit just .183, which was in line with what he had hit the prior to years, and he never got picked up after his “last hurrah” season.  Uggla never seemed to recover from two separate concussions he suffered from HBPs (one in July 2012, another in ST 2013), never again hitting even the meager .220 he managed in 2012.

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2014 (5 remaining candidates right now):

Total Players used: 22 position, 18 pitchers, 40 total.  5/40 = 12.5% candidate ratio right now

Candidates:

• Greg Dobbs: FA after 2014, retired in May 2015 when he didn’t catch on with a new club.
• Nate McLouth, who signed an ill-advised 2-year deal to be our “veteran 4th outfielder” behind Denard Span … but who struggled in 2014 and then missed the entirety of 2015.  The team bought out his 2016 option and as of this writing has not signed with a new team (not even a minor league deal).  May have played his way out of the game.  (Thanks to Karl in the comments for the reminder on McLouth).
• Jeff Kobernus: Released by the team Mar 2015, played the rest of 2015 with SF’s A+ club in San Jose, MLFA for 2016.  He never signed with anyone in 2016 and may be finished.
• Scott Hairston: FA after 2014, sat out 2015.  Signed for Chicago White Sox for 2016, but then was cut on 3/29/16.  He did not pick back up with anyone for 2016, and at age 36 could be forced into retirement.
• Nate Schierholtz: FA after 2014, signed w/ Texas but did not stay with club out of spring training.  Played 2015 in Japan, then signed as a MLFA with Detroit in Dec 2015.  Starting in AAA for Detroit 2016 but not a 40-man player.  Subsequently released on 5/23/16 after hitting .246, did not pick back up for the rest of 2016.  He’s only 32, so he may still give it a shot in 2017.

Names removed since the last post: Kevin Frandsen (signed w/ SFG and appeared in 7 games in 2015), Ryan Mattheus (got one game with LAA, waived, then pitched the whole of 2015 in Cincinnati’s bullpen), Rafael Soriano (who finally signed with the Cubs in June but had just 6 appearances before getting released on 9/4/15, and Taylor Hill (who had 12IP across 6 games for the Nats in 2015).  Added Nate McLouth after Karl noticed he was missing in the comments.

Outlook for 2014 Oblivion candidates: after a rough 2016 for all these players, only Schierholz really seems like he has a shot at even a ST invite for 2017.  The rest are likely done.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: I’ll go with Kobernus at this point, if only because he went to my dad’s Alma Mater (Cal-Berkeley) at a time where the program was threatened with the Axe (eventually donations resurrected the program in 2011).  He’s an example of an odd fascination the Nats seem to have with good field-no hit upper round draft picks from Cal (see also Renda, Tony).

 

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2013 (4 Candidates):

Total Players used: 23 position, 21 pitchers, 44 total.  4/44 = 9% candidate ratio right now (thanks Natsochrist for the edit)

Current Candidates

• Chad Tracy: MLFA signed w/ LA Angels for spring 2014, cut, retired 4/25/14.
• Yunesky Maya; MLFA with Atlanta AAA for 2014, then went to Korea where he got pounded for two seasons.  Just signed a MLFA deal with Los Angeles Angels for 2016 and is pitching for AAA Salt Lake.  He strained his elbow and missed a big chunk of the 2016 season, which was a missed opportunity for Maya as the Angels had very little SP depth.
• Chris Marrero: MLFA, signed w/ Baltimore AAA 2014, played briefly for the White Sox’s AAA affiliate in 2015.  He’s still out there, playing in the 2015 Venezuelan winter league.  Signed back with Boston’s AAA affiliate for 2016.  He had a strong 2016 season for Pawtucket, hitting 23 homers but did not get called up.
• Erik Davis; Nats AAA 2014 60 day D/L Tommy John surgery 2014, still on Nats D/L 2015.  Outrighted off the 40-man in January 2016, assigned to AAA.  Posted a 4.13 ERA in a full year of middle relief for Syracuse, with excellent K/9 ratios, but did not merit a 9/1 call up.

Updates since last post: removed Jhonatan Solano went 1-20 for Miami in 2015 and may be a “Marlins to Oblivion” candidate going forward.

Outlook for 2013 Oblivion candidates: The 4 remaining guys face uphill climbs; only Davis remains with the Nationals but none are on 40-man rosters.  Maya and Marrero are  hanging on though and may get shots based on decent 2016 seasons in AAA.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Yunesky Maya, who was Mike Rizzo‘s first foray into the Cuban exile market.  Signed to a 4yr/$8M deal, he was given several shots at the majors and never could capitalize.  He arrived in the US with a wide arsenal of pitches but not a lot of swing-and-miss talent, and he ended up basically being a AAA starter.   He spent the last three seasons as Syracuse’s lead starter (getting 22, 28 and 24 starts there in-between infrequent call-ups) and ended up with just one career MLB win for his $8M salary (making his one of the worst dollars-per-win contracts ever … even if it was “just” $8M).  This whole paragraph is assuming that Maya never makes it back to the majors … but based on what he’s shown thus far combined with his advancing age, that seems like a likely end-result for the Cuban starter.  As we speak, he has given up on minor league ball and has decamped for Korea, where he’s shown some good stats in limited appearances.

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2012 (6 candidates)

Total Players used: 24 position, 19 pitchers, 43 total.  6/43 = 13.9% candidate ratio right now

Candidates

• Brad Lidge: Retired post 2012.
• Christian Garcia: got added to the 40-man roster down the stretch of 2012 and provided some electric relief out of the pen, even making the playoff roster.  Got hurt in ST 2013, went to the 60-day D/L, still hurt in 2014, and released in June of that year.  Garcia never had bad stats … just too many injuries that he couldn’t overcome.  (Thanks to commenter Justin for this reminder!)
• Ryan Perry: Wash AAA/AA 2013, 2014, released by Washington in 2014, signed back with Detroit and played 2014-2015 with their AAA affiliate.  Released mid 2015 by Toledo and never signed on again for 2015 or 2016; may be done.
• Jesus Flores; signed ML deal with Los Angeles Dodgers for 2013, was with TB, KC for 2014, Miami AAA for 2015, but was released in July 2015 and never re-signed.  Played Winter Ball 2015 never signed for 2016; may be done.
• Brett Carroll: signed ML deal w/ Pittsburgh for 2013, Tor for 2014.  Never signed for 2015, looks done.
• Carlos Maldonado: Wash AAA 2013.  Played Venezuelan Winter Ball for a number of years, then after no US-based organized ball for 2 seasons signed a ML deal with Texas in 2015 …and made their AA team as a 37-yr old.  Still plugging away.  In 2016 Maldonado again was assigned to Frisco, but was immediately put on the D/L and never appeared.  In fact, he doesn’t even have a minor league at bat since 2013; is he just on a roster to serve as a bullpen catcher?

Updates in last 12 months: Updates for Maldonado, who I can’t believe is still playing in the bus leagues at age 37.  Added Christian Garcia after Justin noticed he was missing in the comments.

Outlook for 2012 Oblivion candidates: Only Maldonado seems like he’s still technically “active,” but as a 38-yr old catcher who hasn’t even had an at-bat since 2013 the odds of him making it back are nil.  The book seems closed on 2012.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Brad Lidge, who gave it one last shot and failed and didn’t keep trying.  Sometimes, when you lose your stuff, its gone and gone fast.  I’ll readily admit I thought the signing was a great one when it occurred but it just didn’t work out.  I really hoped that Lidge would be a serviceable 7th inning guy and mentor to Drew Storen and Tyler Clippard, being one of the great closers of his day.  It didn’t work out that way: the Nats released him on June 25th and he hung ’em up.

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2011 (6 candidates)

Total Players used: 20 position, 24 pitchers, 44 total.  6/44 = 13.6% candidate ratio right now…

Candidates

• Ivan Rodriguez – retired after 2011; will appear on the 2017 Hall-of-Fame Ballot with 1st ballot stats but a PED cloud over his head.
• Matt Stairs — retired after 2011.
• Alex Cora — retired after 2011, now the General Manager of a Puerto Rican Winter League team.
• Cole Kimball — Nats 60-day DL in 2012, XST in 2013, DFA’d off 40-man roster.  2014 indy, NYY AA team.  Threw 3.2 Innings of 14-ERA ball in the Mexican summer league in 2015.  Does not seem to be on any 2016 rosters; may be done.
• Brian Broderick — Stl AAA, waived now Nats AAA in 2012, AA in 2013.  Indy ball 2014, Kansas City AAA 2015, where he had a pretty good season.  He elected MLFA … and (oddly?) did not get picked up for 2016.  May be done.
• Atahualpa Severino — Nats AAA, DFA’d off 40-man in 2012, signed w/ KC for 2013, Atl AAA in 2014, LAA AAA in 2015 but he got cut and ended the year in the Mexican league.  For 2016 he is again in the Mexican League, and had a strong season for Monterrey.  Perhaps he gets another shot some-day.  There’s always people looking for loogies.

Changes in the last 12 months: none other than 2016 assignment updates; nobody’s gotten off this list in a while.

Outlook for 2011 Oblivion candidates: Just one guy still hanging on: Severino continues to throw albeit in his home country’s unaffiliated Mexican league.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Matt Stairs: He made the 2011 roster despite having almost no defensive capabilities and, as it soon became evident, almost no remaining abilities at the plate.  He somehow hung onto his roster spot until August 1st despite having just one extra base hit in 74 at-bats on the year.  I remember one game in particular; we were at the stadium going against the hated Phillies and they left Roy Halladay in to attempt to finish a shutout with a 3-0 lead (Game was on 4/13/11).  Nats rally, score 2 runs to make it 3-2.  Stairs comes up pinch hitting for Jerry Hairston with guys on 1st and 2nd with one out; he promptly watches three straight fastballs go right down the middle of the plate without moving his bat.  I’ve never been so p*ssed at a player at the ball-park.  Fellow Nats-to-Oblivion candidate  Ivan Rodriguez then promptly struck out on 3 pitches as well, looking strike 3 into the mitt and then arguing vehemently with the ump over the game-ending call which gave Halladay the complete game victory.  Those were the good ole days.

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2010 (12 players)

Total Players used: 20 position, 26 pitchers, 46 total.  12/46 = 26.0% never appeared again

Players:

• Kevin Mench; retired after 2010
• Jamie Burke; retired after 2010
• Luis Atilano: in CIN org, AAA in 2012, never signed for 2013, out of baseball.
• Scott Olsen; in CWS org, AAA 2012, never signed for 2013, out of baseball.
• Tyler Walker; indy league 2011, never signed for 2012, out of baseball.
• Matt Chico; indy league 2012, never signed for 2013, out of baseball.
• Garrett Mock: Houston AAA 2012, AZ AAA for 2013.  Not signed for 2014
• Jason Bergmann: indy 2011, Col AAA 2012, Indy again in 2013, KC AA.  Not signed for 2014.
• Jesse English; indy league 2011, 2012.  Mexican League 2013, Indy ball 2014 but struggled, no 2015 stats.
• Joe Bisenius; in Mexico 2011-12, Atl AA/AAA 2013, indy/mexican league 2014 but struggled, no 2015 stats.
• JD Martin; in MIA org AAA 2012, in TB AAA 2013, in Korea 2014 but struggled, no 2015 stats.  2016 MLFA signing back with the team and re-making himself as a knuckleballer.  Why not right?
• Willy Taveras; played AAA for Col in 2011, retired prior to 2012, back with KC AAA 2013.  Mexican league 2014, 2015, Indy ball in 2015.  He re-signed with Pueblo in the Mexican league for 2016 and played a full season, hitting .325.

Changes in last 12 months: none.

Outlook for 2010 Oblivion candidates: Two active players in the minors; Taveras and Martin.  Martin seems likely to get another MLFA contract in 2017 to see if he can pan out as a knuckleballer.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Jamie Burke: The 2009 Nats were so thin at Catcher by the end of the season that we literally bought a spare catcher in Burke from Seattle so we could have some coverage at the end of the season.  Burke re-signed on for 2010 and appeared in exactly one MLB game.  He was released after the season and retired.

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2009 (9 players)

Total Players used: 25 position, 30 pitchers, 55 total.  9/55 = 16.3% never appeared again

Players:

• Elijah Dukes: released and never picked up for 2010.  Arrested in 2011, 2012, out of baseball.
• Alex Cintron; playing in Mexico 2012, nothing in 2013
• Jorge Padilla; in SD org, AAA in 2012, nothing in 2013
• Ron Villone, AAA all of 2010, 2011 playing indy ball, retired prior to 2012.  He was scheduled to appear on the 2015 Hall of Fame ballot but was removed for some reason.  Remains a pitching coach for the Cubs organization.
• Julian Tavarez; retired after getting DFA’d in July 2009
• Mike Hinckley: Tor org in 2011, retired prior to 2012
• Steven Shell; KC org in 2011, retired prior to 2012
• Victor Garate; MIL org and Indy ball in 2012, Mexican league 2013, 2014. Went to Japan for 2015 and had a great season.  Back on the continent and pitching in the Mexican League for 2016; had 10 starts for Saltillo and was released.  May be done.
• Zack Segovia; in Det org AA in 2012, Mexican league/Indy ball 2013, Mexican League 2014.  Picked up with San Diego’s AAA for 2015 but got hit.  Pitching in the Mexican League for 2016 and had decent numbers as a middle reliever, but was released in June.

Changes in last 12 months: none.

Outlook for 2009 Oblivion candidates: Still a couple guys active here, both in the Mexican league.  Not likely to see any changes going forward.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Ron Villone, who proved that a crafty lefty with a halfway decent fastball can have a long career in this game.  He had 63 appearances at age 39 for the 2009 Nats and got re-signed for 2010.  He didn’t make the team though, labored in Syracuse the whole season and was released.  Despite being 41 years old, he headed to Indy ball for one last shot but washed out after just a few outings in 2011.

It wouldn’t be a retrospective on poor Nats players if we didn’t briefly talk about Elijah Dukes though.  I think its safe to assume that he’s the only guy on this list that has served more time in jail than has played in the minor leagues, attempting to get back to the show.

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2008 (8 players)

Total Players used: 25 position, 25 pitchers, 50 total.  8/50 = 16% never appeared again

Players:

• Kory Casto; 2009 AAA, 2010 in Ariz AA, retired.
• Dmitri Young: some rehab in low minors 2009, retired.
• Rob Mackowiak: 2009: some indy, bounced around AAA, that’s it.
• Johnny Estrada; quit after 2008 mid-season release.
• Odalis Perez; refused his 2009 contract, never resigned (see below)
• Levale Speigner; 2009 in Florida’s AA/AAA, then 2010 in Seattle AAA.  done.
• Ray King; retired after 2008
• Chris Schroder; 2009, 2010 bounced around AAA with Oakland,Florida (now Miami).

Changes in last 12 months: none.

Outlook for 2008 Oblivion candidates: every remaining candidate is now out of baseball.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Odalis Perez, though I’m tempted to say either Mackowiak or Estrada, possibly the two worst FA signings of the whole Jim Bowden era (and that’s saying something).  But nothing beats the Perez story.  He was the Nats Opening Day Starter in 2008, and he was the first guy to get a start in the new Nationals Stadium.  He pitched decently enough; in 30 starts he was 7-12 with a 4.34 ERA and a 99 ERA+ for a god-awful team.  But apparently he got really pissed when the team only offered him a non-guaranteed Minor League deal for 2009.  So he held out, the Nats said “fine with us” and released him, and nobody else picked him up.  And he never played another game.  I’m not sure if that was a sign that he was just that bad (not one team wanted to even give an opening day starter a look the subsequent year?), or if there was some sort of MLB general manager omerta that conspired against him.  Either way, Perez never played again, not even in Winter Leagues as far as I could find.  Sometimes a player has to swallow his pride, and Perez apparently could not.

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2007 (12 players)

Total Players used: 21 position, 26 pitchers, 47 total.  12/47 = 25.5% never appeared again

Players:

• Nook Logan; indy league 2008, 2010.
• Robert Fick: Cut from the Padres in ST 2008, full year indy league 2009, retired.
• D’Angelo Jimenez: AAA all of 2008, 2009.  Mexican league and Indy league 2010-2012
• Tony Batista: Wash AAA 2008, then released
• Michael Restovich: 2008 in Japan, AAA 2009-2011, retired
• Brandon Watson: AAA 2008-9, indy league 2011, retired.
• Mike Bacsik: 2008 AAA, 2011 indy league, now a broadcaster.
• Jason Simontacchi; 2008 indy league, 2010 again.
• John Patterson; cut in ST 2008, immediately signed w/ Texas but never played again.
• Ryan Wagner: AAA 2008-9, released and presumably retired.
• Arnie Munoz; went to mexican league, retired > 2010
• Chris Booker: AAA in 2008, then retired/released.

Changes in last 12 months: none

Outlook for 2007 Oblivion candidates: every remaining candidate is now out of baseball.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Mike Bacsik, who was destined to be a career 4-A guy before Washington picked him up and gave him 20 starts in 2007.  Bacsik was on his 6th minor league organization when he arrived in Syracuse and pitched his way up to the major leagues.  He was overmatched badly; he had a 5.11 ERA and just a 3.4 K/9 rate.  But he did get his moment in the headlines by giving up Barry Bonds‘ 756th career homer one night in San Francisco in August.  Contrary to accusations on the topic, I do not believe Bacsik “served up” the homer.  If you check the play index, Bonds hit the 7th pitch of the at-bat in a 3-2 count for that homer.  Bacsik didn’t purposely give up a homer on the 7th pitch of an at-bat; he just ran out of pitches to show Bonds that weren’t going to get pulverized.

A quick comment though on John Patterson: I remember being absolutely shocked at his release in 2008’s spring training.  He was cut on 3/20/08, right in the middle of Spring Training with no warning and having just thrown his Grapefruit innings.   He was healthy, recovered from surgery, ready to be the ace of that staff and start showing off the potential that he showed in 2005 (you know, when he 4-hit the Dodgers with 13 punch outs and posted the best Game-Score performance in Nats history).  He signed a ML deal with Texas after his release by the Nats, but he couldn’t answer the call and never appeared again, getting released in mid May.  I guess his third arm surgery in 7 years just left him unable to compete at any level and he hung ’em up.

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2006 (20 players)

Total Players used: 28 position, 29 pitchers, 57 total.  20/57 = 35% never appeared again

• Damian Jackson; dnp 2007, indy league 2008-9
• Bernie Castro: AAA all of 2007, 8 then retired.
• Alex Escobar: Wash minors 2007-8, then retired.
• Brandon Harper: Wash AAA all of 2007, then released/retired.
• Wiki Gonzalez: CWS AAA all of 2007, indy league 2008, retired.
• Henry Mateo: AAA or Indy league 2007-2009, Mexican league from 2010-2013
• George Lombard: AAA 2007-9, some indy league, retired.
• Mike Vento: 2007 Wash AAA, indy league 2008, back with Syracuse 2009, retired.
• Melvin Dorta; various minor leagues 2007-2010, indy league 2011, retired.
• Luis Matos: AAA 2007, Mexican League 2008-2012.  ? 2013 and done.
• Pedro Astacio; retired after 2006
• Felix Rodriguez: dnp 2007, indy league 2008-9, retired.
• Zach Day: AAA 2007, briefly A+ 2008, retired.
• Beltran Perez; wash minors AA/AAA 2007-8, released and never played again.
• Joey Eischen; released off of Washington and retired.
• Travis Hughes; AAA in 2007, played in Japan 2008, indy leagues 2009, 2011.
• Ryan Drese: various minor leagues 2007-8, indy league 2009-2010, Baltimore AAA 2011, released/retired.
• Kevin Gryboski: AAA 2007-2008, retired/released.
• Brett Campbell: Wash AA 2007, released/retired.
• Santiago Ramirez: Japan in 2007, Mexican league 2008, indy 2009, retired.

Changes in last 12 months: none

Outlook for 2006 Oblivion candidates: every remaining candidate is now out of baseball.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Joey Eischen, who bounced around the league in his 20s before settling in Montreal and moving south with the team.  He was known to be a “character” in the clubhouse and to give good quotes to reporters (google “Joey Eischen quotes” and you’ll find some of his classics).   By 2006 though the years had taken their toll on his shoulder; he had 19 walks in 14 2/3 innings through the end of May had blown his rotator cuff.  The team put him on the 60 day D/L and called up Virginia-native Bill Bray.   Eischen never got off that D/L; he was released in the off-season and never played again. He has been a pitching coach in the Colorado system since 2010.

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2005 (16 players)

Total Players used: 30 position, 25 pitchers, 55 total.  16/55 = 29% never appeared again

Players:

• Carlos Baerga; retired after 2005
• Junior Spivey: bounced around AAA 2006-7, indy ball in 2009, retired.
• Wil Cordero; released mid 2005, signed on with the NY Mets but never made it out of AAA.  Retired after 2005.
• Deivi Cruz; released after 2005, cut from St. Louis 2006 ST, played indy ball, retired.
• Jeffrey Hammonds; retired in June 2005 mid-season.
• J.J. Davis: Traded to Colorado as part of the Preston Wilson deal, sent to Colorado’s AAA, then released after the season and never played again.
• Rick Short; Granted FA after the 2005 season to play in Japan, played there til 2009.
• Kenny Kelly; AAA in 2006 and 2007, released and retired.
• Keith Osik; a backup catcher, got 4 ABs in 2005, released and retired.
• Tyrell Godwin; after just three MLB at-bats in 2005, spent all of 2006 and 2007 in AAA, released and retired.
• T.J. Tucker; released after 2005, tried one year of indy ball in 2008, retired.
• Joe Horgan; released after 2005, played one year of AAA with Florida, released, retired.
• Matt White; AAA in 2006-7, Japan 2007-8, tried indy ball in 2010, hung ’em up.
• C.J. Nitkowski; AAA in 2006, then went to Japan 2007-8, Korea 2009-10, back with the Mets AAA team in July 2012.  Not signed for 2013.  Was a blow-hard “I’m an ex baseball player and know more than you” Podcast host for Fox Sports with Rob Neyer until their cancellation.  Made news in 2015 for his article on the Bryce Harper/Jonathan Papelbon where he quoted a number of anonymous MLBers who said that (paraphrasing) “Harper had it coming.”
• Antonio Osuna: dnp in 2006, Mexican league 2007-9.
• Tony Blanco; Nats minor leagues 2006-7, Colorado AA in 2008, in Japan from 2009-present.  Hit 41 homers in 2013 for Yokohama but struggled in 2015, but got picked up by Orix and is on their 2016 roster.

Changes in last 12 months: none

Outlook for 2005 Oblivion candidates: Tony Blanco is still playing in Japan, entering his 8th pro season there in 2016.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Rick Short, who got his MLB debut at the age of 32, after 11 very long seasons in the minors with many different teams.  He got a couple of call-ups in June and July to provide cover, and then played out the string after a Sept 1 roster expansion call-up.  In that off-season, he returned to Japan (where he’d played one full season prior), and played four more years in the Japanese League and retired in 2009.

Though it merits talking about a couple other guys here. Tony Blanco; he was a rule-5 draftee who the Nats carried the whole of 2005 so they could keep his rights.  He was awful; he had a .177 batting average as the 25th guy off the bench.  In 2006 he couldn’t even cut it in AA and played most of the year in High-A.  After 2007 the Nats summarily released him from their minor league organization altogether.   He found his calling though; he signed on in Japan in 2009 at age 27 and continues to play there today.  You have to wonder if he may very well earn another MLB shot.

Jeffrey Hammonds was well known to Washington baseball fans by virtue of his pedigree with our northern neighbors in Baltimore; he was a 1st round draft pick in 1992 out of Stanford, broke in with the MLB team the following year and was a role player on the powerhouse Baltimore teams of the mid 1990s.   He bounced around the league afterwards though, signing on with the newly relocated Washington franchise for the 2005 debut season but he hung ’em up after a slow start here.  He was only 34 when he retired.

Note: this is a recurring post, and large chunks of the older material is recycled.  I’ve updated the research for older players as needed.  See here for 2013’s version, click here for 2012’s version of this post.

Several years ago (November 2010) Mark Zuckerman posted a fascinating analysis he titled “From Nats to Oblivion.”  It chronicled the astoundingly high number of players that the early incarnations of the Nats were using who, once the Nats released them, never again appeared in a MLB game.  I thought the analysis was so interesting that I kept up the same data and have been keeping it up-to-date with the whereabouts of Nats-to-Oblivion candidates ever since.  So with apologies to Zuckerman for stealing his idea, here’s an interesting visit to the Nats darker past.

It is nearly impossible for a team to field an entire year’s worth of players who will not fall into this “Oblivion” category.  Every MLB team has guys playing out the string or near retirement, and every MLB team calls up guys through out the season from the minors who eventually show themselves as unable to compete on the MLB level and who never make it back.  So a 0% oblivion measure isn’t a goal.  The best this team has done is 5 players (the 2012 and 2013 teams), but the 2014 team has a good shot of beating that.

For your reminiscing pleasure, here is the summary data updated to the 2014 team:

• 2014: 22 position, 18 pitchers, 40 total.  8/40 = 20% candidate ratio right now
• 2013: 23 position, 21 pitchers, 44 total.  5/44 = 11.3% candidate ratio
• 2012: 24 position, 19 pitchers, 43 total.  5/43 = 11.6% candidate ratio
• 2011: 20 position, 24 pitchers, 44 total.  6/44 = 13.6% candidate ratio
• 2010: 20 position, 26 pitchers, 46 total.  12/46 = 26.0% never appeared again
• 2009: 25 position, 30 pitchers, 55 total.  9/55 = 16.3% never appeared again
• 2008: 25 position, 25 pitchers, 50 total.  8/50 = 16% never appeared again
• 2007: 21 position, 26 pitchers, 47 total.  12/47 = 25.5% never appeared again
• 2006: 28 position, 29 pitchers, 57 total.  20/57 = 35% never appeared again
• 2005: 30 position, 25 pitchers, 55 total.  16/55 = 29% never appeared again

Look at the 2006 season; 35% of the players who played for the team that year never played another Major League game.  That’s still astounding to me.  Read on for a detailed look back at some of the very bad players that have put in significant time for this team.

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2014 (8 candidates right now):

Total Players used: 22 position, 18 pitchers, 40 total.  8/40 = 20% candidate ratio right now

Candidates:

• Scott Hairston: FA after 2014, has not yet signed for 2015
• Greg Dobbs: FA after 2014, has not signed yet for 2015
• Nate Schierholtz: FA after 2014, signed w/ Texas but did not stay with club out of spring training.  Currently unsigned Currently in Japan
• Kevin Frandsen; re-signed and released by team in Apr 2015. Signed w/ Arizona Apr 2015, ML deal for AAA
• Ryan Mattheus: Signed with LAA for 2015; in AAA
• Jeff Kobernus: Nats AAA 2015 Released by the team Mar 2015, unsigned as of this posting.
• Rafael Soriano: FA after 2014, has yet to sign for 2015
• Taylor Hill: Nats AAA 2015

(Note; i’ve put in corrections as noted in the comments, striking out the incorrect text).

I’d expect this list to at least get cut in half; Kobernus and Hill seem likely to get some work with the Nats this year, and its just a matter of time before Soriano gets signed to fill out someone’s bullpen hole (like ours?).  The first 5 guys though … could be in trouble.   Hairston and Dobbs went the whole off-season w/o getting signed.  Schierholz didn’t make the Texas team and is a FA.  Frandsen is in the same boat after getting unconditionally released by the Nats, but quickly picked up a AAA deal with Houston.  Mattheus is off the 40-man but did make the Angels’ AAA team as a MLFA.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: too early to have a “story” really.  Maybe the story about how Ryan Mattheus‘ career basically cratered after he punched a wall with his pitching hand in May of 2013.  Or the story of Rafael Soriano‘s fall from grace in 2014 (first half: 0.97 ERA and talks of an All Star snub.  Second half?  6.48 ERA and being removed as closer).  But neither of those stories are really “fun.”

 

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2013 (5 Candidates):

Total Players used: 23 position, 21 pitchers, 44 total.  5/44 = 11.3% candidate ratio right now

Current Candidates

• Chad Tracy: MLFA signed w/ LA Angels for spring 2014, cut, retired 4/25/14
• Yunesky Maya; MLFA with Atlanta AAA for 2014, then went to Korea where he is in 2015.
• Chris Marrero: MLFA, signed w/ Baltimore AAA 2014, no stats for 2015 yet.
• Jhonatan Solano; Nats AA 2014, Miami AAA for 2015.
• Erik Davis; Nats AAA 2014 60 day D/L Tommy John surgery 2014, still on Nats D/L 2015

Updates since last post: Removed Nathan Karns (TB), Corey Brown (Boston),  Jeff Kobernus (Nats in 2014), Eury Perez (NYY).

At least three of these players may very well stay on the “Oblivion” list (the first three).  The last two seem like better candidates to eventually get off the list.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Yunesky Maya, who was Mike Rizzo‘s first foray into the Cuban exile market.  Signed to a 4yr/$8M deal, he was given several shots at the majors and never could capitalize.  He arrived in the US with a wide arsenal of pitches but not a lot of swing-and-miss talent, and he ended up basically being a AAA starter.   He spent the last three seasons as Syracuse’s lead starter (getting 22, 28 and 24 starts there in-between infrequent call-ups) and ended up with just one career MLB win for his $8M salary (making his one of the worst dollars-per-win contracts ever … even if it was “just” $8M).  This whole paragraph is assuming that Maya never makes it back to the majors … but based on what he’s shown thus far combined with his advancing age, that seems like a likely end-result for the Cuban starter.  As we speak, he has given up on minor league ball and has decamped for Korea, where he’s shown some good stats in limited appearances.

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2012 (5 candidates)

Total Players used: 24 position, 19 pitchers, 43 total.  5/43 = 11.6% candidate ratio right now

Candidates

• Brad Lidge: Retired post 2012
• Carlos Maldonado: Wash AAA 2013.  Not signed for 2014
• Ryan Perry: Wash AAA/AA 2013, 2014, released by Washington in 2014 and no subsequent appearances.
• Jesus Flores; signed ML deal with Los Angeles Dodgers for 2013, was with TB, KC for 2014, not signed for 2015
• Brett Carroll: signed ML deal w/ Pittsburgh for 2013, Tor for 2014.  Not signed for 2015

Updates in last 12 months: none; we removed several players from this list last year, but none since.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Brad Lidge, who gave it one last shot and failed spectacularly.  When you lose your stuff, its gone and gone fast.  I’ll readily admit I thought the signing was a great one when it occurred but it just didn’t work out.  I really hoped that Lidge would be a serviceable 7th inning guy and mentor to Drew Storen and Tyler Clippard, being one of the great closers of his day.  It didn’t work out that way: the Nats released him on June 25th and he hung ’em up.

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2011 (6 candidates)

Total Players used: 20 position, 24 pitchers, 44 total.  6/44 = 13.6% candidate ratio right now…

Candidates

• Ivan Rodriguez – retired after 2011; will appear on the 2017 Hall-of-Fame Ballot with 1st ballot stats but a PED cloud over his head.
• Matt Stairs — retired after 2011
• Alex Cora — retired after 2011, now the General Manager of a Puerto Rican Winter League team.
• Cole Kimball — Nats 60-day DL in 2012, XST in 2013, DFA’d off 40-man roster.  2014 indy, NYY AA team
• Brian Broderick — Stl AAA, waived now Nats AAA in 2012, AA in 2013.  Indy ball 2014, Kansas City AAA 2015
• Atahualpa Severino — Nats AAA, DFA’d off 40-man in 2012, signed w/ KC for 2013, Atl AAA in 2014, LAA AAA in 2015

Changes in the last 12 months: none.

A couple of these guys are still hanging on; with Broderick coming back to organized ball and Severino with his third straight MLFA signing with a new squad for 2015.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Matt Stairs: He made the 2011 roster despite having almost no defensive capabilities and, as it soon became evident, almost no remaining abilities at the plate.  He somehow hung onto his roster spot until August 1st despite having just one extra base hit in 74 at-bats on the year.  I remember one game in particular; we were at the stadium going against the hated Phillies and they left Roy Halladay in to attempt to finish a shutout with a 3-0 lead (Game was on 4/13/11).  Nats rally, score 2 runs to make it 3-2.  Stairs comes up pinch hitting for Jerry Hairston with guys on 1st and 2nd with one out; he promptly watches three straight fastballs go right down the middle of the plate without moving his bat.  I’ve never been so p*ssed at a player at the ball-park.  Fellow Nats-to-Oblivion candidate  Ivan Rodriguez then promptly struck out on 3 pitches as well, looking strike 3 into the mitt and then arguing vehemently with the ump over the game-ending call which gave Halladay the complete game victory.

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2010 (12 players)

Total Players used: 20 position, 26 pitchers, 46 total.  12/46 = 26.0% never appeared again

Players:

• Kevin Mench; retired after 2010
• Jamie Burke; retired after 2010
• Luis Atilano: in CIN org, AAA in 2012, never signed for 2013, out of baseball.
• Scott Olsen; in CWS org, AAA 2012, never signed for 2013, out of baseball.
• Tyler Walker; indy league 2011, never signed for 2012, out of baseball.
• Matt Chico; indy league 2012, never signed for 2013, out of baseball.
• Garrett Mock: Houston AAA 2012, AZ AAA for 2013.  Not signed for 2014
• Jason Bergmann: indy 2011, Col AAA 2012, Indy again in 2013, KC AA.  Not signed for 2014
• JD Martin; in MIA org AAA 2012, in TB AAA 2013, in Korea 2014
• Jesse English; indy league 2011, 2012.  Mexican League 2013, Indy ball 2014
• Joe Bisenius; in Mexico 2011-12, Atl AA/AAA 2013, indy/mexican league 2014
• Willy Taveras; played AAA for Col in 2011, retired prior to 2012, back with KC AAA 2013.  Mexican league 2014, 2015

Changes in last 12 months: none.

As far as I can tell, we’re down to just one player even on a 2015 roster, albeit its Taveras in the Mexican league.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Jamie Burke: The 2009 Nats were so thin at Catcher by the end of the season that we literally bought a spare catcher in Burke from Seattle so we could have some coverage at the end of the season.  Burke re-signed on for 2010 and appeared in exactly one MLB game.  He was released after the season and retired.

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2009 (9 players)

Total Players used: 25 position, 30 pitchers, 55 total.  9/55 = 16.3% never appeared again

Players:

• Elijah Dukes: released and never picked up for 2010.  Arrested in 2011, 2012, out of baseball.
• Alex Cintron; playing in Mexico 2012, nothing in 2013
• Jorge Padilla; in SD org, AAA in 2012, nothing in 2013
• Ron Villone, AAA all of 2010, 2011 playing indy ball, retired prior to 2012.  He was scheduled to appear on the 2015 Hall of Fame ballot but was removed for some reason.  Was a pitching coach for the Cubs organization; not sure where he is (if anywhere) for 2015.
• Julian Tavarez; retired after getting DFA’d in July 2009
• Mike Hinckley: Tor org in 2011, retired prior to 2012
• Steven Shell; KC org in 2011, retired prior to 2012
• Victor Garate; MIL org and Indy ball in 2012, Mexican league 2013, 2014.  Nowhere for 2015, yet…
• Zack Segovia; in Det org AA in 2012, Mexican league/Indy ball 2013, Mexican League 2014.  Nowhere for 2015, yet…

Changes in last 12 months: none.

Still a couple guys active in the Mexican league, possibly, for 2015.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Ron Villone, who proved that a crafty lefty with a halfway decent fastball can have a long career in this game.  He had 63 appearances at age 39 for the 2009 Nats and got re-signed for 2010.  He didn’t make the team though, labored in Syracuse the whole season and was released.  Despite being 41 years old, he headed to Indy ball for one last shot but washed out after just a few outings in 2011.

It wouldn’t be a retrospective on poor Nats players if we didn’t briefly talk about Elijah Dukes though.  I think its safe to assume that he’s the only guy on this list that has served more time in jail than has played in the minor leagues, attempting to get back to the show.

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2008 (8 players)

Total Players used: 25 position, 25 pitchers, 50 total.  8/50 = 16% never appeared again

Players:

• Kory Casto; 2009 AAA, 2010 in Ariz AA, retired.
• Dmitri Young: some rehab in low minors 2009, retired.
• Rob Mackowiak: 2009: some indy, bounced around AAA, that’s it.
• Johnny Estrada; quit after 2008 mid-season release.
• Odalis Perez; refused his 2009 contract, never resigned (see below)
• Levale Speigner; 2009 in Florida’s AA/AAA, then 2010 in Seattle AAA.  done.
• Ray King; retired after 2008
• Chris Schroder; 2009, 2010 bounced around AAA with Oakland, Fla.

Changes in last 12 months: none

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Odalis Perez, though I’m tempted to say either Mackowiak or Estrada, possibly the two worst FA signings of the whole Jim Bowden era (and that’s saying something).  But nothing beats the Perez story.  He was the Nats Opening Day Starter in 2008, and he was the first guy to get a start in the new Nationals Stadium.  He pitched decently enough; in 30 starts he was 7-12 with a 4.34 ERA and a 99 ERA+ for a god-awful team.  But apparently he got really pissed when the team only offered him a non-guaranteed Minor League deal for 2009.  So he held out, the Nats said “fine with us” and released him, and nobody else picked him up.  And he never played another game.  I’m not sure if that was a sign that he was just that bad (not one team wanted to even give an opening day starter a look the subsequent year?), or if there was some sort of MLB general manager omerta that conspired against him.  Either way, Perez played again, not even in Winter Leagues as far as I could find.  Sometimes a player has to swallow his pride, and Perez apparently could not.

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2007 (12 players)

Total Players used: 21 position, 26 pitchers, 47 total.  12/47 = 25.5% never appeared again

Players:

• Nook Logan; indy league 2008, 2010.
• Robert Fick: Cut from the Padres in ST 2008, full year indy league 2009, retired.
• D’Angelo Jimenez: AAA all of 2008, 2009.  Mexican league and Indy league 2010-2012
• Tony Batista: Wash AAA 2008, then released
• Michael Restovich: 2008 in Japan, AAA 2009-2011, retired
• Brandon Watson: AAA 2008-9, indy league 2011, retired.
• Mike Bacsik: 2008 AAA, 2011 indy league, now a broadcaster.
• Jason Simontacchi; 2008 indy league, 2010 again.
• John Patterson; cut in ST 2008, immediately signed w/ Texas but never played again.
• Ryan Wagner: AAA 2008-9, released and presumably retired.
• Arnie Munoz; went to mexican league, retired > 2010
• Chris Booker: AAA in 2008, then retired/released.

Changes in last 12 months: none

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Mike Bacsik, who was destined to be a career 4-A guy before Washington picked him up and gave him 20 starts in 2007.  Bacsik was on his 6th minor league organization when he arrived in Syracuse and pitched his way up to the major leagues.  He was overmatched badly; he had a 5.11 ERA and just a 3.4 K/9 rate.  But he did get his moment in the headlines by giving up Barry Bonds‘ 756th career homer one night in San Francisco in August.  Contrary to accusations on the topic, I do not believe Bacsik “served up” the homer.  If you check the play index, Bonds hit the 7th pitch of the at-bat in a 3-2 count for that homer.  Bacsik didn’t purposely give up a homer on the 7th pitch of an at-bat; he just ran out of pitches to show Bonds that weren’t going to get pulverized.

A quick comment though on John Patterson: I remember being absolutely shocked at his release in 2008’s spring training.  He was cut on 3/20/08, right in the middle of Spring Training with no warning and having just thrown his Grapefruit innings.   He was healthy, recovered from surgery, ready to be the ace of that staff and start showing off the potential that he showed in 2005 (you know, when he 4-hit the Dodgers with 13 punch outs and posted the best Game-Score performance in Nats history).  He signed a ML deal with Texas after his release by the Nats, but he couldn’t answer the call and never appeared again, getting released in mid May.  I guess his third arm surgery in 7 years just left him unable to compete at any level and he hung ’em up.

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2006 (20 players)

Total Players used: 28 position, 29 pitchers, 57 total.  20/57 = 35% never appeared again

• Damian Jackson; dnp 2007, indy league 2008-9
• Bernie Castro: AAA all of 2007, 8 then retired.
• Alex Escobar: Wash minors 2007-8, then retired.
• Brandon Harper: Wash AAA all of 2007, then released/retired.
• Wiki Gonzalez: CWS AAA all of 2007, indy league 2008, retired.
• Henry Mateo: AAA or Indy league 2007-2009, mexican league from 2010-current 2013
• George Lombard: AAA 2007-9, some indy league, retired.
• Mike Vento: 2007 Wash AAA, indy league 2008, back with Syracuse 2009, retired.
• Melvin Dorta; various minor leagues 2007-2010, indy league 2011, retired.
• Luis Matos: AAA 2007, Mexican League 2008-2012.  ? 2013
• Pedro Astacio; retired after 2006
• Felix Rodriguez: dnp 2007, indy league 2008-9, retired.
• Zach Day: AAA 2007, briefly A+ 2008, retired.
• Beltran Perez; wash minors AA/AAA 2007-8, released and never played again.
• Joey Eischen; released off of Washington and retired.
• Travis Hughes; AAA in 2007, played in Japan 2008, indy leagues 2009, 2011.
• Ryan Drese: various minor leagues 2007-8, indy league 2009-2010, Baltimore AAA 2011, released/retired.
• Kevin Gryboski: AAA 2007-2008, retired/released.
• Brett Campbell: Wash AA 2007, released/retired.
• Santiago Ramirez: Japan in 2007, Mexican league 2008, indy 2009, retired.

Changes in last 12 months: none

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Joey Eischen, who bounced around the league in his 20s before settling in Montreal and moving south with the team.  He was known to be a “character” in the clubhouse and to give good quotes to reporters (google “Joey Eischen quotes” and you’ll find some of his classics).   By 2006 though the years had taken their toll on his shoulder; he had 19 walks in 14 2/3 innings through the end of May had blown his rotator cuff.  The team put him on the 60 day D/L and called up Virginia-native Bill Bray.   Eischen never got off that D/L; he was released in the off-season and never played again. He has been a pitching coach in the Colorado system since 2010.

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2005 (16 players)

Total Players used: 30 position, 25 pitchers, 55 total.  16/55 = 29% never appeared again

Players:

• Carlos Baerga; retired after 2005
• Junior Spivey: bounced around AAA 2006-7, indy ball in 2009, retired.
• Tony Blanco; Nats minor leagues 2006-7, Colorado AA in 2008, in Japan from 2009-present.
• Wil Cordero; released mid 2005, signed on with the NY Mets but never made it out of AAA.  Retired after 2005.
• Deivi Cruz; released after 2005, cut from St. Louis 2006 ST, played indy ball, retired.
• Jeffrey Hammonds; retired in June 2005 mid-season.
• J.J. Davis: Traded to Colorado as part of the Preston Wilson deal, sent to Colorado’s AAA, then released after the season and never played again.
• Rick Short; Granted FA after the 2005 season to play in Japan, played there til 2009.
• Kenny Kelly; AAA in 2006 and 2007, released and retired.
• Keith Osik; a backup catcher, got 4 ABs in 2005, released and retired.
• Tyrell Godwin; after just THREE MLB at-bats in 2005, spent all of 2006 and 2007 in AAA, released and retired.
• T.J. Tucker; released after 2005, tried one year of indy ball in 2008, retired.
• Joe Horgan; released after 2005, played one year of AAA with Florida, released, retired.
• Matt White; AAA in 2006-7, Japan 2007-8, tried indy ball in 2010, hung ’em up.
• C.J. Nitkowski; AAA in 2006, then went to Japan 2007-8, Korea 2009-10, back with the Mets AAA team in July 2012.  Not signed for 2013
• Antonio Osuna: dnp in 2006, Mexican league 2007-9.

Changes in last 12 months: none

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Rick Short, who got his MLB debut at the age of 32, after 11 very long seasons in the minors with many different teams.  He got a couple of call-ups in June and July to provide cover, and then played out the string after a Sept 1 roster expansion call-up.  In that off-season, he returned to Japan (where he’d played one full season prior), and played four more years in the Japanese League and retired in 2009.

Though it merits talking about a couple other guys here. Tony Blanco; he was a rule-5 draftee who the Nats carried the whole of 2005 so they could keep his rights.  He was awful; he had a .177 batting average as the 25th guy off the bench.  In 2006 he couldn’t even cut it in AA and played most of the year in High-A.  After 2007 the Nats summarily released him from their minor league organization altogether.   He found his calling though; he signed on in Japan in 2009 at age 27 and continues to play there today.  You have to wonder if he may very well earn another MLB shot.

Jeffrey Hammonds was well known to Washington baseball fans by virtue of his pedigree with our northern neighbors in Baltimore; he was a 1st round draft pick in 1992 out of Stanford, broke in with the MLB team the following year and was a role player on the powerhouse Baltimore teams of the mid 1990s.   He bounced around the league afterwards though, signing on with the newly relocated Washington franchise for the 2005 debut season but he hung ’em up after a slow start here.  He was only 34 when he retired.

Several years ago (November 2010) Mark Zuckerman posted a fascinating analysis he titled “From Nats to Oblivion.”  It chronicled the astoundingly high number of players that the early incarnations of the Nats were using who, once the Nats released them, never again appeared on a MLB roster.  I thought the analysis was so interesting that I kept up the same data and have been keeping it up-to-date with the whereabouts of Nats-to-Oblivion candidates ever since.  So with apologies to Zuckerman for stealing his idea, here’s an interesting visit to the Nats darker past.

A large part of this post is borrowed from previous versions; click here for 2012’s version of this post.   A few players from our near past have re-surfaced in the majors as of late and have been removed from this list where noted; if you see any others listed here in error please let me know.  But this entire list is updated post 2013 season, with the minor league/foreign league/independent league movements of oblivion candidates chronicled.

It is nearly impossible for a team to field an entire year’s worth of players who will not fall into this “Oblivion” category.  Every MLB team has guys playing out the string or near retirement, and every MLB team calls up guys through out the season from the minors who eventually show themselves as unable to compete on the MLB level and who never make it back.  So a 0% oblivion measure isn’t a goal.

For your reminiscing pleasure, here is the summary data updated to the 2013 team:

• 2012: 24 position, 19 pitchers, 43 total.  5/43 = 11.6% candidate ratio
• 2011: 20 position, 24 pitchers, 44 total.  6/44 = 13.6% candidate ratio
• 2010: 20 position, 26 pitchers, 46 total.  12/46 = 26.0% never appeared again
• 2009: 25 position, 30 pitchers, 55 total.  9/55 = 16.3% never appeared again
• 2008: 25 position, 25 pitchers, 50 total.  8/50 = 16% never appeared again
• 2007: 21 position, 26 pitchers, 47 total.  12/47 = 25.5% never appeared again
• 2006: 28 position, 29 pitchers, 57 total.  20/57 = 35% never appeared again
• 2005: 30 position, 25 pitchers, 55 total.  16/55 = 29% never appeared again

Look at the 2006 season; 35% of the players who played for the team that year never played another Major League game.  That’s still astounding to me.  Read on for a detailed look back at some of the very bad players that have put in significant time for this team.

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2013 (13 Candidates):

Total Players used: 23 position, 21 pitchers, 44 total. 13/44 = 29.5% candidate ratio right now.  Real candidates list is just the top 5, so 5/44 = 11.36%.

Candidates

• Yunesky Maya; ML deal with Atlanta for 2014
• Chris Marrrero: ML deal with Baltimore for 2014
• Chad Tracy: still a FA; highly unlikely to get a major league deal after his awful 2013.
• Corey Brown: DFA’d, traded to Oakland
• Fernando Abad; DFA’d, traded to Oakland

Less likely “candidates” from the 2013 team:

• Danny Espinosa
• Jhonatan Solano
• Jeff Kobernus
• Zach Walters
• Eury Perez
• Sandy Leon
• Nathan Karns
• Erik Davis

The top 5 players are really the “candidates” out of the 2013 team.  Every one of the guys in the lower section is on our 40-man roster, meaning they all likely see time this coming season.  In fact, right now the odds are that at least a couple of these guys will make the opening day roster.  So really the oblivion candidates here are just the top 5 guys, but we’ll track all 13 until they’re cleared off this list.  Both the guys we traded to Oakland sit on their 40-man roster, but both seem in serious jeopardy of being DFA’d again at some point in the spring (especially Corey Brown, who is out of options).

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Yunesky Maya, who was Mike Rizzo‘s first foray into the Cuban exile market.  Signed to a 4yr/$8M deal, he was given several shots at the majors and never could capitalize.  He arrived in the US with a wide arsenal of pitches but not a lot of swing-and-miss talent, and he ended up basically being a AAA starter.   He spent the last three seasons as Syracuse’s lead starter (getting 22, 28 and 24 starts there inbetween infrequent call-ups) and ended up with just one career MLB win for his $8M salary (making his one of the worst dollars-per-win contracts ever … even if it was “just” $8M).  This whole paragraph is assuming that Maya never makes it back to the majors … but based on what he’s shown thus far combined with his advancing age, that seems like a likely end-result for the Cuban starter.

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2012 (5 candidates)

Total Players used: 24 position, 19 pitchers, 43 total.  5/43 = 11.6% candidate ratio right now

Candidates

• Brad Lidge: Retired post 2012

• Jesus Flores; signed ML deal with Los Angeles Dodgers for 2013, no MLB appearances

• Brett Carroll: signed ML deal w/ Pittsburgh for 2013, no MLB appearances

• Ryan Perry: Wash AAA and AA 2013

• Carlos Maldonado: Wash AAA 2013

In the past 12 months, we’ve removed 3 players from this list (Izturas, Wang and Brown) who re-appeared on MLB rosters either here or elsewhere.  I still think its possible that Flores could re-appear on an MLB roster at some point; catchers have a way of getting hurt and causing organizations to scramble.  The rest face pretty long odds.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Brad Lidge, who gave it one last shot and failed spectacularly.  When you lose your stuff, its gone and gone fast.  I’ll readily admit I thought the signing was a great one when it occurred but it just didn’t work out.  I really hoped that Lidge would be a serviceable 7th inning guy and mentor to Drew Storen and Tyler Clippard, being one of the great closers of his day.  It didn’t work out that way.

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2011 (6 candidates)

Total Players used: 20 position, 24 pitchers, 44 total.  6/44 = 13.6% candidate ratio right now…

Candidates

• Ivan Rodriguez – retired after 2011
• Matt Stairs — retired after 2011
• Alex Cora — retired after 2011, now the General Manager of a Puerto Rican Winter League team.
• Cole Kimball — Nats 60-day DL in 2012, XST in 2013, DFA’d off 40-man roster.
• Brian Broderick — Stl AAA, waived now Nats AAA in 2012, AA in 2013
• Atahualpa Severino — Nats AAA, DFA’d off 40-man in 2012, KC AAA for 2013, signed ML deal with Atlanta for 2014 (thanks John C).

Changes in the last 12 months: none.

As with the 2012 candidates, I wouldn’t be surprised to see this list get lowered by one eventually; Severino seems like he could work his way back into a loogy situation for a club.  Kimball’s DFA and Broderick’s pending MLFA status both make it seem like their chances of returning to the majors are slim.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Matt Stairs: He made the 2011 roster despite having almost no defensive capabilities and, as it soon became evident, almost no remaining abilities at the plate.  He somehow hung onto his roster spot until August 1st despite having just one extra base hit in 74 at-bats on the year.  I remember one game in particular; we were at the stadium going against the hated Phillies and they left Roy Halladay in to attempt to finish a shutout with a 3-0 lead (Game was on 4/13/11).  Nats rally, score 2 runs to make it 3-2.  Stairs comes up pinch hitting for Jerry Hairston with guys on 1st and 2nd with one out; he promptly watches three straight fastballs go right down the middle of the plate without moving his bat.  I’ve never been so p*ssed at a player at the ball-park.  Ivan Rodriguez then promptly struck out on 3 pitches as well, looking strike 3 into the mitt and then arguing vehimently with the ump over the game-ending call which gave Halladay the complete game victory.

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2010 (12 players)

Total Players used: 20 position, 26 pitchers, 46 total.  12/46 = 26.0% never appeared again

Players:

• Willy Taveras; played AAA for Col in 2011, retired prior to 2012, back with KC AAA 2013
• Kevin Mench; retired after 2010
• Jamie Burke; retired after 2010
• Luis Atilano: in CIN org, AAA in 2012, never signed for 2013
• Scott Olsen; in CWS org, AAA 2012, never signed for 2013
• JD Martin; in MIA org AAA 2012, in TB AAA 2013
• Tyler Walker; indy league 2011, never signed for 2012
• Jesse English; indy league 2011, 2012.  Mexican League 2013
• Matt Chico; indy league 2012, never signed for 2013
• Joe Bisenius; in Mexico 2011-12, Atlanta AA/AAA for 2013
• Garrett Mock: Houston AAA 2012, AZ AAA for 2013
• Jason Bergmann: indy 2011, Col AAA 2012, Indy again in 2013, KC AA team.

Changes in last 12 months: none.

There’s more than a few guys here who are still hanging on to AAA jobs but not many of them are looking promising to break onto 40-man rosters and earn call-ups.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Jamie Burke: The 2009 Nats were so thin at Catcher by the end of the season that we literally bought a spare catcher in Burke from Seattle so we could have some coverage at the end of the season.  Burke re-signed on for 2010 and appeared in exactly one MLB game.  He was released after the season and retired.

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2009 (9 players)

Total Players used: 25 position, 30 pitchers, 55 total.  9/55 = 16.3% never appeared again

Players:

• Elijah Dukes: released and never picked up for 2010.  Arrested in 2011, 2012, out of baseball.

• Alex Cintron; playing in Mexico 2012, nothing in 2013

• Jorge Padilla; in SD org, AAA in 2012, nothing in 2013

• Ron Villone, AAA all of 2010, 2011 playing indy ball, retired prior to 2012.  He will appear on the 2015 Hall of Fame ballot and is currently the pitching coach of the High-A Chicago affilliate.

• Julian Tavarez; retired after getting DFA’d in July 2009

• Zack Segovia; in Det org AA in 2012, Mexican league/Indy ball 2013

• Mike Hinckley: Tor org in 2011, retired prior to 2012

• Steven Shell; KC org in 2011, retired prior to 2012

• Victor Garate; MIL org and Indy ball in 2012, Mexican league 2013

Changes in last 12 months: removed Kensing and Martis after they both resurfaced on MLB teams, meaning that they both went three full seasons inbetween MLB appearances.  That’s why we track these guys for so long.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Ron Villone, who proved that a crafty lefty with a halfway decent fastball can have a long career in this game.  He had 63 appearances at age 39 for the 2009 Nats and got re-signed for 2010.  He didn’t make the team though, labored in Syracuse the whole season and was released.  Despite being 41 years old, he headed to Indy ball for one last shot but washed out after just a few outings in 2011.

It wouldn’t be a retrospective on poor Nats players if we didn’t briefly talk about Elijah Dukes though.  I think its safe to assume that he’s the only guy on this list that has served more time in jail than has played in the minor leagues, attempting to get back to the show.

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2008 (8 players)

Total Players used: 25 position, 25 pitchers, 50 total.  8/50 = 16% never appeared again

Players:

• Kory Casto; 2009 AAA, 2010 in Ariz AA, retired.
• Dmitri Young: some rehab in low minors 2009, retired.
• Rob Mackowiak: 2009: some indy, bounced around AAA, that’s it.
• Johnny Estrada; flat out quit after 2008
• Odalis Perez; refused his 2009 contract, never resigned
• Levale Speigner; 2009 in Florida’s AA/AAA, then 2010 in Seattle AAA.  done.
• Ray King; retired after 2008
• Chris Schroder; 2009, 2010 bounced around AAA with Oakland, Fla.

Changes in last 12 months: none

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Odalis Perez, though I’m tempted to say either Mackowiak or Estrada, possibly the two worst FA signings of the whole Jim Bowden era (and that’s saying something).  But nothing beats the Perez story.  He was the Nats Opening Day Starter in 2008; hell he was the first guy to get a start in the Nationals Stadium.  He pitched well; in 30 starts he was 7-12 with a 4.34 ERA and a 99 ERA+ for a god-awful team.  But apparently he got really pissed when the team only offered him a non-guaranteed Minor League deal for 2009.  So he held out, the Nats said “fine with us” and released him, and nobody else picked him up.  And he never played another game.  I’m not sure if that was a sign that he was just that bad (not one team wanted to even give an opening day starter a look the subsequent year?), or if there was some sort of MLB general manager omerta that conspired against him.  Either way, Perez played again, not even in Winter Leagues as far as I could find.  Sometimes a player has to swallow his pride, and Perez apparently could not.

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2007 (12 players)

Total Players used: 21 position, 26 pitchers, 47 total.  12/47 = 25.5% never appeared again

Players:

• Nook Logan; indy league 2008, 2010.
• Robert Fick: Cut from the Padres in ST 2008, full year indy league 2009, retired.
• D’Angelo Jimenez: AAA all of 2008, 2009.  Mexican league and Indy league 2010-2012
• Tony Batista: Wash AAA 2008, then released
• Michael Restovich: 2008 in Japan, AAA 2009-2011, retired
• Brandon Watson: AAA 2008-9, indy league 2011, retired.
• Mike Bacsik: 2008 AAA, 2011 indy league, now a broadcaster.
• Jason Simontacchi; 2008 indy league, 2010 again.
• John Patterson; cut in ST 2008, immediately signed w/ Texas but never played again.
• Ryan Wagner: AAA 2008-9, released and presumably retired.
• Arnie Munoz; went to mexican league, retired > 2010
• Chris Booker: AAA in 2008, then retired/released.

Changes in last 12 months: none

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Mike Bacsik, who was destined to be a career 4-A guy before Washington picked him up and gave him 20 starts in 2007.  Bacsik was on his 6th minor league organization when he arrived in Syracuse and pitched his way up to the major leagues.  He was overmatched badly; he had a 5.11 ERA and just a 3.4 K/9 rate.  But he did get his moment in the headlines by giving up Barry Bonds‘ 756th career homer one night in San Francisco in August.  Contrary to accusations on the topic, I do not believe Bacsik “served up” the homer.  If you check the play index, Bonds hit the 7th pitch of the at-bat in a 3-2 count for that homer.  Bacsik didn’t purposely give up a homer on the 7th pitch of an at-bat; he just ran out of pitches to show Bonds that weren’t going to get pulverized.

A quick comment though on John Patterson: I remember being absolutely shocked at his release in 2008’s spring training.  He was cut on 3/20/08, right in the middle of Spring Training with no warning and having just thrown his Grapefruit innings.   He was healthy, recovered from surgery, ready to be the ace of that staff and start showing off the potential that he showed in 2005 (you know, when he 4-hit the Dodgers with 13 punch outs and posted the best Game-Score performance in Nats history).  He signed a ML deal with Texas after his release by the Nats, but he couldn’t answer the call and never appeared again, getting released in mid May.  I guess his third arm surgery in 7 years just left him unable to compete at any level and he hung ’em up.

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2006 (20 players)

Total Players used: 28 position, 29 pitchers, 57 total.  20/57 = 35% never appeared again

• Damian Jackson; dnp 2007, indy league 2008-9
• Bernie Castro: AAA all of 2007, 8 then retired.
• Alex Escobar: Wash minors 2007-8, then retired.
• Brandon Harper: Wash AAA all of 2007, then released/retired.
• Wiki Gonzalez: CWS AAA all of 2007, indy league 2008, retired.
• Henry Mateo: AAA or Indy league 2007-2009, mexican league from 2010-current 2013
• George Lombard: AAA 2007-9, some indy league, retired.
• Mike Vento: 2007 Wash AAA, indy league 2008, back with Syracuse 2009, retired.
• Melvin Dorta; various minor leagues 2007-2010, indy league 2011, retired.
• Luis Matos: AAA 2007, Mexican League 2008-2012.  ? 2013
• Pedro Astacio; retired after 2006
• Felix Rodriguez: dnp 2007, indy league 2008-9, retired.
• Zach Day: AAA 2007, briefly A+ 2008, retired.
• Beltran Perez; wash minors AA/AAA 2007-8, released and never played again.
• Joey Eischen; released off of Washington and retired.
• Travis Hughes; AAA in 2007, played in Japan 2008, indy leagues 2009, 2011.
• Ryan Drese: various minor leagues 2007-8, indy league 2009-2010, Baltimore AAA 2011, released/retired.
• Kevin Gryboski: AAA 2007-2008, retired/released.
• Brett Campbell: Wash AA 2007, released/retired.
• Santiago Ramirez: Japan in 2007, Mexican league 2008, indy 2009, retired.

Changes in last 12 months: none

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Joey Eischen, who bounced around the league in his 20s before settling in Montreal and moving south with the team.  He was known to be a “character” in the clubhouse and to give good quotes to reporters (google “Joey eischen quotes” and you’ll find some of his classics).   By 2006 though the years had taken their toll on his shoulder; he had 19 walks in 14 2/3 innings through the end of May had blown his rotator cuff.  The team put him on the 60 day D/L and called up one Bill Bray.   Eischen never got off that D/L; he was released in the off-season and never played again.  For 2013, he’s listed as the pitching coach of Colorado’s high-A Affiliate in Asheville.

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2005 (16 players)

Total Players used: 30 position, 25 pitchers, 55 total.  16/55 = 29% never appeared again

Players:

• Carlos Baerga; retired after 2005
• Junior Spivey: bounced around AAA 2006-7, indy ball in 2009, retired.
• Tony Blanco; Nats minor leagues 2006-7, Colorado AA in 2008, in Japan from 2009-present.
• Wil Cordero; released mid 2005, signed on with the NY Mets but never made it out of AAA.  Retired after 2005.
• Deivi Cruz; released after 2005, cut from St. Louis 2006 ST, played indy ball, retired.
• Jeffrey Hammonds; retired in June 2005 mid-season.
• J.J. Davis: Traded to Colorado as part of the Preston Wilson deal, sent to Colorado’s AAA, then released after the season and never played again.
• Rick Short; Granted FA after the 2005 season to play in Japan, played there til 2009.
• Kenny Kelly; AAA in 2006 and 2007, released and retired.
• Keith Osik; a backup catcher, got 4 ABs in 2005, released and retired.
• Tyrell Godwin; after just THREE MLB at-bats in 2005, spent all of 2006 and 2007 in AAA, released and retired.
• T.J. Tucker; released after 2005, tried one year of indy ball in 2008, retired.
• Joe Horgan; released after 2005, played one year of AAA with Florida, released, retired.
• Matt White; AAA in 2006-7, Japan 2007-8, tried indy ball in 2010, hung ’em up.
• C.J. Nitkowski; AAA in 2006, then went to Japan 2007-8, Korea 2009-10, back with the Mets AAA team in July 2012.  Not signed for 2013
• Antonio Osuna: dnp in 2006, Mexican league 2007-9.

Changes in last 12 months: none

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Rick Short, who got his MLB debut at the age of 32, after 11 very long seasons in the minors with many different teams.  He got a couple of call-ups in June and July to provide cover, and then played out the string after a Sept 1 roster expansion call-up.  In that off-season, he returned to Japan (where he’d played one full season prior), and played four more years in the Japanese League and retired in 2009.

Though it merits talking about a couple other guys here. Tony Blanco; he was a rule-5 draftee who the Nats carried the whole of 2005 so they could keep his rights.  He was awful; he had a .177 batting average as the 25th guy off the bench.  In 2006 he couldn’t even cut it in AA and played most of the year in High-A.  After 2007 the Nats summarily released him from their minor league organization altogether.   He found his calling though; he signed on in Japan in 2009 at age 27 and continues to play there today.  You have to wonder if he may very well earn another MLB shot.

Jeffrey Hammonds was well known to Washington baseball fans by virtue of his pedigree with our northern neighbors in Baltimore; he was a 1st round draft pick in 1992 out of Stanford, broke in with the MLB team the following year and was a role player on the powerhouse Baltimore teams of the mid 1990s.   He bounced around the league afterwards though, signing on with the newly relocated Washington franchise for the 2005 debut season but he hung ’em up after a slow start here.  He was only 34 when he retired.

Got word this morning that the team is optioning the ineffective Ryan Perry back to AAA and bringing up veteran minor league FA signing Mike Gonzalez to take his place.  Luke Erickson notes the fact that 40-man member Atahualpa Severino was bypassed for this move, despite not requiring a subsequent 40-man roster move (the team transfered Drew Storen to the 60-day DL to make room).

This is the latest in a flurry of additions to the 40-man roster necessitated by a freak rash of injuries, and eventually will make for some rather difficult roster moves after the season is over.  As it stands right now, the team is now technically sitting at 45 guys on the 40-man roster (40 active or 15-day DL, 5 on the 60-day DL), meaning that at a minimum after the season 5 guys are going to have to make way.  Yes we have some free agents that will come off the books, but you generally need to operate your 40-man roster with some room to maneuver, especially considering some of the big prospect names that are going to be Rule-5 eligible this coming off-season (just to name a few; Danny Rosenbaum, Jeff Kobernus and Destin Hood).

Makes you wonder how the team feels about the two Major League contracts they handed out last draft?  Anthony Rendon is injured and likeout out for the season (again)  Matthew Purke only just got out of extended spring training to record his first start in Low-A.

Anyway; the real problem is the carnage that is likely to occur when the team has to designate a number of these mid-season additions.  Because as we designate them we run the risk of losing them to waiver claims.  I don’t think Carlos Maldonado is necessarily at risk, but certainly we didn’t need to expose someone like Sandy Leon or Corey Brown until absolutely necessary.

It makes you wonder if prior additions who are continually getting passed over for non 40-man candidates are either targets to get cut or were mistakes to begin with.  Why no Severino?  How about Carlos Rivera?  How long before the team summarily cuts Xavier Nady and his .500 OPS?

Here’s Tom Boswell‘s weekly Monday chat from 3/5/12.  Of the baseball questions he took, here’s how I’d have answered them.  While lots of questions pertained to the recent Gregg Williams “bounty” issues and whether or not the Redskins partook during his time here, the starting of spring training has got Nats fans pretty excited.

As always, questions are edited for clarity and I write my own answer prior to reading his.

Q: What do you think the Nats w/l record will be?  Can they win 90 games?

A: For a team that won 80 last year (though their pythagorean W/L record was slightly worse), I don’t think its a stretch to assume they can improve another 10 games.  Mark Zuckerman did a nice little WAR analysis and showed that full seasons from Zimmerman, LaRoche and Strasburg, along with the new additions of Gonzalez and Jackson *should* give the team at least another 10 wins, perhaps a bit more.  That’s assuming basically that everyone else performs at the same levels they did last year, and it assumes that the WAR stat directly translates to wins on the field.  In reality, you have to plan for some people to step up while others step back.  Can we assume that Morse will hit 30 homers again?  Its a tough one to assume; he could break a leg and suddenly our offense is in tatters.

That’s why I’ve been a bit more conservative, predicting 8 more wins for this team and have them at 88-74 with this squad.  If the team is in the WC hunt, and they augment the offense, or if Harper comes up and produces … suddenly that’s a 90-91 win team.  Boswell didn’t really answer this question, just went off on Strasburg tangents.

Q: Who is your opening day starter?

A: barring injury it has to be Strasburg.  I think your initial 5-man rotation goes like this, in this order: Strasburg, Gonzalez, Zimmermann, Jackson and Wang.  This gives you a decent righty-lefty matchup at the top.  Perhaps you replace Wang with Lannan and have Jackson go out 5th to get a true R-L-R-L-R rotation.  Or perhaps Davey Johnson doesn’t care about lefty/righty matchups.  I’m more interested to see who the home opener starter is, since it happens 7 games into the season.  Right now it looks to be Gonzalez, which would be great, but early season rain-outs can greatly affect rotation orders.  Boswell says Strasburg but had a good caveat; if its 30 degrees and snowing in Chicago on opening day Strasburg probably won’t go.

Q: Where is this team’s Lenny Dykstra-esque scrappy mean streak player?

A: Honestly, the Mets-to-Nats comparisons may not ever bee 100%.   I don’t see a Dykstra type on this roster.  Mostly because this roster still does not have a center fielder/lead off type, which is exactly what Dykstra was.  Boswell says that Werth may still fill this role.

Q: Why didn’t the team keep Bixler and Nix?

A: Bixler is a good question; for reasons unknown the team designated him for assignment in the off-season while still possessing 40-man room (inexplicably; they did this a number of times, losing Kimball at one point but also losing two decent players in the Rule 5 draft).   Nix they probably thought was replaceable on the FA market … or at least obtainable for cheap.  There does always seem to be a number of halfway decent corner outfielders on the market who are available for less than what Nix got.  Boswell says Nix’s 2yr contract was the problem … the Nats want flexibility for 2014.  No mention of Bixler.

Q: If Tyler Clippard is our “MVP,” why isn’t he being paid more?

A: Two reasons; clearly the questioner doesn’t understand the whole arbitration process.  Just because Clippard is our best pitches doesn’t equate to him being the highest paid player.  Veterans always make more than pre-arb guys; don’t forget the players belong to a Union, and Union members reward longevitiy.  Secondly; Clippard unfortunately is a commodity player; he’s a non-closer reliever who doesn’t rack up saves and thus won’t ever be compensated like a Jonathan Papelbon or a Mariano Rivera, despite his value to the team.  Its an unfair world in some respects, and I just hope that the Nats do him right and keep paying him while he’s productive for the team.  Boswell mirrors my two thoughts but then also says that relievers are starting to become aware of newer stats like WPA that value Clippard highly (1st in the NL last year, above big name starters like Roy Halladay).

Q: What are your thoughts on the extra wild card?

A: Baseball purists may whine and complain, but the modern professional sports scene in this country, fortunately or unfortunately, places a ton of emphasis on playoffs versus regular season accomplishment.  Even with these two additional WC teams, Baseball still has the fewest of its teams reaching the regular season of any of the four major sports.  And, in a sport where payroll disparities may not determine the World Series victor every year they clearly help predict the playoff contendors (Yankees: one missed playoff appearance since 1994), having more teams in competition for the playoffs is good for the sport.  Frankly I’d like to see Baseball go to a 32-team/8-division structure similar to the NFL and adopt the NFL’s exact playoff structure.  The problem there is finding two more markets without cannibalizing the NY or LA market.  Boswell says “time will tell,” but also admits that he hated the first WC round initially but likes it now.  He also points out something I hadn’t thought of; the importance of your #3 starter with a new round of playoffs.

Q: Should the team just skip Strasburg’s start every few times to extend his 160IP limit until the end of the season?

A: It isn’t a bad idea; Zimmermann skipped one start and hit his 160IPs at roughly September 1st.  So skipping a few more starts for Strasburg would put him well into September.  But I don’t think he’ll be served well by jacking around his days rest.  Starters depend on getting into routines in order to pitch their best.  Honestly I think this situation may very well play it self out naturally; even in 2010 Strasburg had two separate DL stints; if he spends 30 days or so on the DL at various times we’ll get a full season out of him.  Boswell agrees with me on the not-skipping-a-start theory.

Q: How secure is Ramos as the #1 catcher?

A: I’d say he’s pretty secure.  Flores may have had a good winter, but winter leagues aren’t exactly MLB quality.  Flores’ injury history has more or less derailed his career, and that’s unfortunate.  The team has found a solid #1 in Ramos and will stick with him, with Flores getting his typical 1 or 2 starts a week.  The inclusion of Derek Norris in the Gonzalez package also spoke volumes about where this team thinks it is in terms of catcher depth, as does the 40-man addition of Maldonado, a journeyman catcher who now benefits from a distinct lack of upper-level minor league catcher depth.  Look for the team to make catcher a focus in the 2012 draft to start back up the catcher pipeline.  In the mean time, I doubt Flores will be trade bait even if he performs amazingly well, at least until we find another catcher in the wings.  Boswell says Ramos is as #1 as any #1 can be.

Q: Who are the best catchers ever?

A: For a combination of defense, calling games, arm strength as well as offense, i’d go with Johnny Bench.  But you also have to throw in Ivan Rodriguez in his prime.  Mike Piazza was notoriously bad defensively.  Jorge Posada was subpar defensively in his later years but was a monster bat.  I’d include other names from the past few decades like Carlton Fisk. Before Fisk and Bench, there was a dearth of HoF inductees from the catcher position for some 30 years, to Yogi Berra who is probably the benchmark for all-around catchers (with Bench).   Boswell says Bench as well, but mentions Varitek with Posada.  Interesting.

Q: What is the team going to do with Ian Desmond?

A: I’d guess that 2012 is the make it or break it year for Desmond.  If he’s hitting .220 at the all-star break without significant value proven at the SS position, the team may make a change.  Move Espinosa to SS, install DeRosa as starting 2B, look to move Desmond and perhaps make Lombardozzi the utility guy.  I also find it very interesting that Anthony Rendon is getting reps at both 2B and SS; if that kind of hitter can slot in at short stop on even an as-needed basis he could be even more of a dangerous prospect than he already is.  Boswell agrees; this is a big year for Desmond.

Q: If catcher is so important, why did we move Bryce Harper away from the position?

A: one word: longevity.  Yeah he was a catcher growing up but catchers get the crap beat out of them, have constant injury concerns, and the wear and tear of catching affects their hitting.  With such a bat potential, he needs to be on the field and playing 162 games.  That being said, I was slightly surprised that he didn’t at least try to stick at C for at least a little bit of his career … but understand the reasoning stated.  Boswell said the same things I said, but added that scouts didn’t really think he was a natural catcher anyway, so he got moved to the OF quickly.

Q: What would MLB’s response be to the same “bounty” scandal going on in the NFL?

A: Hard one; its not like purposeful bean-balls without context are common in the MLB.  And the game is just too random to purposely try to spike someone, or slide into them on purpose, or to purposely hit a catcher.  These plays are so bang-bang and so naturally occurring to baseball players who have played all their lives that they’re hard to script.  If it was found out to be happening?  Long suspensions.  Boswell thinks such a situation would be lifetime bans, if proven.

Q: Strasburg has never pitched more than 7 innings, at any level, ever.  Is this a concern?

A: I have a hard time believing this, but won’t challenge the questioner since I’m not entirely in a position to go searching through the guy’s college career.  Is it a concern?  eh.  Its modern baseball.  No more 150 pitch games, no more 38 start seasons.    Little leaguers have pitch count/innings limits, high school teams only play twice a week.  College rotations you go once a week.  I’d only be concerned if he showed any inclination of slowing down later in games, which he doesn’t.  Boswell isn’t concerned.

Weekly wrap-up of Nats and other baseball news that caught my eye.

Nationals In General

• In a minor move, the team re-signed its own AAA minor league free agent Carlos Maldonado, per tweet from Bill Ladson.  This sets up our catcher depth for most of the system (Flores/Ramos, Solano/Maldonado, Norris/Leon, and Nieto/Fritas) and gives the team some flexibility with the inevitable injuries.  Frankly Norris’ poor 2011 season jeopardizes his progression; he’ll obviously be repeating AA in 2012 and needs to show some improvement to keep his oft-repeated “close to the majors” prospect status.
• Chris Marrero tore his hamstring and had surgery, two weeks ago.  Two weeks ago!?  How did this little nugget stay hidden for so long?  Most of the beat reporters had the story on 11/29 and had the same opinion as I; this probably frees up a bench spot for someone like Tyler Moore or perhaps another veteran 1-year FA.
• Nats are apparently interested in Mark DeRosa.  No big surprise; we have basically zero competent utility infielders under contract right now.  DeRosa can be 2012’s version of Jerry Hairston.
• Sorry to hear that Masn beat reporter Ben Goessling is leaving to join the St. Paul Pioneer Press.  No word on his replacement.
• Per the soon-to-be-departing Goessling as well: Toronto continues to collect ex-Nats players and signs Garrett Mock to a minor league deal.  I’m starting to sense a Jim Bowden-esque obsession on the part of Dana Brown with our farm players.  So be it; if they were that good when he was here, we wouldn’t have been ranked in the bottom 5 farm systems of the league.
• Espinosa, Ramos and Strasburg on Keith Law‘s best 50 under 25 list.  Harper still too young to consider.

Free Agents/Player Transaction News

• There remains to be questions whether or not Yu Darvish will actually post this off-season.  Rumors of a divorce complicating his posting persist, and its now been a week since the end of the NPB season with no word of his posting status.  (Jon Paul Morosi reports).
• Here’s some non-news: Mark Buehrle won’t come “cheap or short.”
• Here’s David Schoenfield‘s 3-fix suggestion for each team in the NL east.  His suggestions for us?  CJ Wilson, putting Werth in CF and signing a corner outfielder, and decide whether Davey Johnson is the long term answer.  I’m not sure the 3rd issue matters in the least: Johnson is only 69; there’s plenty of recent evidence showing guys who are older and less accomplished can be successful in the majors.  His argument for Wilson makes sense; he’ll cost half of Pujols/Fielder, wouldn’t be stressed as our “Ace” with Strasburg and Zimmermann around, and will only improve as he goes from the AL to the NL.  I like his Werth answer honestly; I think Werth could hold his own in Center for at least one season, perhaps two.
• Baseball America’s Rule5 Preview, part 1 (may be subscriber only).  I definitely see some players the Nats could experiment with, given that they are looking for a 7th bullpen arm and a utility infielder.  He mentions our own Brad Meyers as a possible draftee, but not one of the marquee names out there.
• Ken Rosenthal says the team is really on both Prince Fielder and the cuban-FA Yoenis Cespedes.  I’m not “against” the interest but am surprised by it.  Does the team really want to just give up on Adam LaRoche that quickly?  Do they really think Cespedes could play in the majors in 2012?
• Well, there goes one of my Nats-trade candidates; the Angels acquired catcher Chris Iannetta from the Rockies for prospect Tyler Chatwood.  My working theory was that the Angels, who have too many outfielders and especially two many guys who can play center field, would be open to trading one of them (specifically Peter Bourjos) to the Nats for a catcher prospect.  Maybe it still can happen.  Of course, Rizzo actually has to be in the country in order to make deals (when this trade went down, Rizzo reportedly was in the D.R. scouting Cespedes).
• Its just a MLBtraderumors chat, but Tim Dierkes is well respected, at least in my opinion.  He has the Nats as potential FA suiters for most every major name.   Edwin Jackson, Mark Buehrle, Cespedes, Fielder and Pujols, even Jimmy Rollins.  Geeze.

New Labor Deal Items

• The new CBA seems almost custom-written to drive out the Tampa Bay Rays.  This scout.com article summarizes it nicely.  I wonder what the Tampa ownership group said about these negotiations as they were going on.  Clearly their methods of gaining advantages through player development and stockpiling draft picks are now obsolete.
• Jim Callis reports via twitter but captured here some more restrictive items about the draft we’re finding out.
• Teams in the 13 smallest markets now enter a Competitive Lottery for picks.  A quick analysis of the 13 teams selected (from Ben Goessling’s article: the Diamondbacks, Orioles, Indians, Royals, Athletics, Pirates, Padres, Rays, Reds, Rockies, Marlins, Brewers) almost identically mirrors the 13 smallest teams by MSA (in smallest to largest order; Milwaukee, Kansas City, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Denver, Pittsburgh, Tampa, Baltimore, St. Louis, San Diego, Minneapolis, Seattle, Phoenix).  The only deviations are the Athletics and Marlins, who would easily be amongst the smallest markets in baseball once you isolate Oakland from San Francisco’s MSA, and Miami from Ft.Lauderdale.  Tangotiger posted an interesting discussion on the same topic (where in the comments I posted this same analysis) on his blog here.

General News; Baseball and other.

• It looks like the NBA has finally gotten its act together, announcing a tentative deal to salvage the season on Nov 26th.
• An interesting take on the Bill James “game score” statistic.  (click here for a list of the 20-best scores in the last 70 years).  Highest ever recorded: an 18-inning shutout pitched by Carl Hubbel scoring a 127 game score.  Kerry Wood‘s 20-k 1-hitter is the highest score in the last 25 years, scoring 105.  This was also the highest-scoring 9-inning game in baseball history.  My initial guess on the best ever game pitched would be Harvey Haddix‘s 12-inning perfect game, lost in the 13th inning.  Here’s the box: it scored a 107.   The highest ever recorded Nationals game score?  John Patterson in 2005 pitched a 4-hit shutout with 13 K’s, worth a score of 92.  Strasburg‘s 14-K debut was worth a 75, though interestingly his final 2011 start (6 innings of 1-hit ball over the Marlins with 10K’s) earned a 78.  There’s about 10 games out there in the 80s range, including an 88 that I can’t possibly think who could have thrown.  Is anyone a baseball-reference subscriber?  I use the site multiple times per day; I should probably register and pay for my time.
• From the great blogger TangoTiger, an Expos Tribute video.
• From another great blogger Rob Neyer, a news item about the future of baseball in the Portland, OR area.  Portland does not have a single pro baseball team in the area, not even a short-season or Indy league team, despite being roughly the same size population wise as the MLB cities of Cleveland and Cincinnati, and being larger than Kansas City and Milwaukee.

Commenter Mark L, in response to my statement that (paraphrased) the 2011 Nationals cannot afford to keep rule 5 picks on this team, pointed out that the team really has little chance of competing in 2011 and thus it is really the perfect time to be keeping and testing rule5 guys.

In theory I agree with this premise w.r.t. keeping rule 5 guys.  We’re not going to win the pennant in 2011.

I think in reality though the team has gone mostly backwards since arriving here in 2005 and cannot afford to ever seem as if they’re not trying to make progress.  I blame a lot of that on Bowden’s obsession with former Reds and tools-y players who became such a nightmare to integrate as a team that Acta had to be scuttled as a manager in favor of the more old-school Riggleman. The team lost the entirety of good will and excitement that came with a new stadium and the Lerners as owners had to be shocked at how quickly they destroyed their season ticket base (most observers believe they’ve lost more than half their season ticket holders just from 2009!). So the team is just not in a position to play for the future any more; they have to appear to be improving the team even marginally for the next few years to put themselves in a better position financially.

If the team was really playing for 2013 (as, say, the KC Royals clearly are), they’d never have even brought in the likes of Ankiel, Coffey, Hairston, basically every mid-career veteran and go completely with a lineup of prospects and these rule5 guys.   Arguably they wouldn’t have spent the money on Werth either.  What would the 25-man roster really look like without any FA signings?  Lets take a look:

• Catchers: Pudge, Ramos (remember, they *had* to get Pudge b/c of the state of their catcher depth pre 2010).  If you like, you can replace Pudge with someone like Flores or even Maldonado, since Norris is not ready for the majors in 2011.

• Infield: Marrero, Espinosa, Desmond, Zimmerman backed up by Gonzalez and Lombardozzi.  This would have required a serious leap of faith on the readiness of Marrero for 2011, and we’d be rushing Lombardozzi to the majors.  Perhaps we would have replaced Lombardozzi with Bixler.

• Outfield: Bernadina, Morgan, Burgess, Morse and CBrown.  I know Burgess was traded, but perhaps the team keeps him and installs him in right field knowing they wouldn’t have Werth.  Perhaps Burgess and Morse compete for right field and we bring up newly acquired CBrown as the 5th outfielder.

• Starters: Maya, Detwiler, Livan, Lannan, Zimmermann.  I leave Livan in here if only because we signed him to such a sweetheart deal.  If we don’t count Livan, we’re looking at someone like Stammen, Mock, Detwiler or Chico in that 5th spot.  Or perhaps we use Broderick as the 5th starter instead of putting him in long relief.

• Relievers: Storen, Clippard, Burnett, Slaten, Broderick, HRodriguez and Carr/Kimball (with ERodriguez on DL).  Our bullpen would have hard throwers at the back end and we’d immediately give AFL hero Kimball or Carr a shot.

Of this active roster, 17-18 would be on pre-arbitration salaries and the total payroll would probably be in the $28-30M range for the entire team. It’d be the “right” thing to do but the town would absolutely howl in protest.

I dunno. I go back and forth as a fan. Part of me says screw 2011, play the kids, see what they can do this year and regroup for 2012 when you can have a very good Strasburg-Zimmermann 1-2 punch to go along with general improvement across the rest of our younger guys.  The other part of me says that incremental growth in terms of wins and respectability for this team is just as important in terms of attracting free agents and enabling the team to make a quick leap in a couple years. If this team can win 75 games this year, Strasburg comes back and probably improves the team 5 wins just by himself, we acquire an incrementally better #3 pitcher and hope that Maya, Detwiler and our rising AAA guys become real major league options. If you’re a 81 win team a couple of key free agent signings coupled with the natural rise of our core up and coming players can improve the team 10-12 wins very quickly. Suddenly we’re a 90 win team and still have a manageable payroll to augment and take the next steps to rise above Atlanta and Philadelphia in the division.

That’s “the plan,” right?