This is the most exciting thing Phillies fans have seen in the last 6 weeks. Photo phillymag.com
First off; congrats to the Philadelphia Phillies, who thanks to late season collapse basically have locked up the #1 overall pick in 2016. A five game game “lead” for the #1 overall pick next year with just nine games left on your season is pretty unassailable, especially when you look at the lineups they’re putting out as of late. Here’s the Reverse Standings for 2015. And here’s the official 2016 draft order from MLB.
Your Washington Nationals are drafting 18th overall. This is a somewhat precarious spot to be; high enough to guarantee a decent talent, low enough to tempt General Managers to punt the unprotected pick with a QO-attached free agent signing. Somehow I doubt the Nats will go that route but you never know; the departures of our nine projected free agents will free up north of $60M of 2015 payroll, and you have to think Rizzo will be spending some of that to bolster the squad.
The top of the 2016 draft looks pretty amazing, and across the board pundits are talking about the strength of the 2016 class over the 2015 class. I heard one pundit say that just 2-3 of the guys who went top10 this year would also go top-10 next year. Here’s the leaders in the clubhouse for #1 overall pick next summer:
- Alex Hansen: RHP from U of Oklahoma with a huge arm (94-98), huge size (6’8″) and who is improving.
- AJ Puk: LHP from U of Florida; 2nd in the nation in K/9 last year as a sophomore friday starter for one of the best teams in the nation in the toughest conference … and will only get better.
- Blake Rutherford: OF from Chaminade Prep in LA; basically has starred at every prep event he can enter (18-U National team member as a *junior*, USA tourney of Stars MVP, great showing at the Area Code Games).
- Jason Groome: LHP from the IMG Academy. Vanderbilt commit. another USA tourney of Stars and Area code Game all-star, sits 91 and hits 95 as a 17-yr old. Attends the IMG Academy, formerly the Nick Bolloteri tennis academy but now basically a pro-prep HS with a $70k annual tuition that is rapidly becoming the best athletics school in the nation irrespective of the sport. This is good b/c IMG has great in-house talent and will play a fantastic schedule of elite Florida programs and national invite tournaments since, well, the whole point of going there is to prepare yourself for drafting.
- Riley Pint: RHP from Kansas, LSU commit. Sits 92-95 and can hit 98, again as a 17yr old, so he projects pretty well.
Most of the pundits I read put one of these 5 guys as the #1 overall pick this year. The Phillies have a new management team and may go the “safer” route with a college hurler (Puk or Hansen), but the only bat on this list (Rutherford) could be the better long term player with less injury risk.
The Braves (currently slotted for #3 overall pick) have to be pretty darn excited with their prospects; no matter who the Phillies and Reds ahead of them pick, they’ll still get to choose from several #1 overall quality guys. Being the Braves, they’ll want to go with one of the Florida kids (Puk or Groome) even though neither hails from the area (Iowa and New Jersey respectably).