Nationals Arm Race

Marquis puts in his 2nd good outing in a row

We’re two turns through the rotation now and the team sits at 4-5.  Here’s some rundowns on how the pitching is trending.

Good

• Half the Bullpen.  2010 holdovers Clippard, Storen, and Burnett are pitching lights out to open the season.  Now if only the Nats still had the other half of the 2010 bullpen still here… (see the “bad” section).
• Jordan Zimmermann‘s 2nd start on 4/8 (blog/gamer/box) went decently.  5 1/3, 6 hits, 2 runs 0 walks and 4 ks.  He left the game with the lead and Goessling notes that he looked sharp early (the 4Ks were in the first two innings).  He got yanked in the 6th on 99 pitches all in all, in favor of Slaten to do a lefty-lefty matchup.  Some commenters note the early hook as over-managing perhaps; I don’t have that big a problem with early hooks early in the season, especially for someone on a known innings limit for the season.  Remember, we have a bullpen full of guys who need work and havn’t thrown in a few days (Gaudin, Slaten and Broderick in particular).  Zimmermann’s control was good (68 of 99 for strikes) and his fastball was strong (avg of 92, max 94.8).
• Jason Marquis.  I’m writing this at the end of the 6th of his 4/10 start (gamer/box) assuming that Marquis is coming out of the game.  His line: 6ip, 7hits, 2 BBs, 9ks and 3 earned runs.  Without context, this line looks mediocre.  However, by watching the game you get a different feel.  3 of those 7 hits were infield hits, another a broken bat RBI single.  Only two halfway-decently hit balls all day (one was a really nice piece of hitting by David Wright to knock in the first run).  Marquis seemed to work around difficulties with his fastball all day, and got 9Ks by virtue of some great off speed stuff.  Of the three runs scored, one was only in scoring position thanks to a passed ball on a 3rd strike.  The umpires blatantly missed three pretty obvious calls in the field, extending Marquis’ outing.  He was in position for the loss (since Chris Wright is pitching a one-hitter through 7 innings despite a fastball that is only in the 85-86mph range) until the Nats got to Carrasco in the 8th to tie the game.  I’d rate his outing as a success and something to build on.

Bad

• Livan Hernandez‘s 4/6/11 start (gamer/box) was not nearly as good as his opening day start.  He labored in Florida, taking nearly 100 pitches to get through 5 innings.  6 hits, 5 walks and 4 runs.  He really struggled in the first inning, only throwing 8 of 24 pitches for strikes.  He blew the 4-run lead his team had staked him and the bullpen did the rest.  I wonder if this is the year that Livan finally gets yanked out of the rotation (he basically hasn’t missed a start in his career, despite a fastball that’s only averaging 83-84mph).
• The other Half of the bullpen: Gaudin and Coffey continue to be very poor replacements for last year’s highly effective duo of Bautista and Peralta.  An offensively-challenged team like the Nats needs to keep every lead it gets; this is one of the main reasons we lost 100+ games two years running.  Last year we had a good bullpen thing going, but management failed to keep two of the key members and rolled the dice with two new guys plus a rule5 acquisition.  I see this experiment going badly, soon.
• Brian Broderick: the whole Broderick situation is looking worse and worse.  After giving up a few more runs on 4/9, he’s got an era in the 20s.  Riggelman had said before he plans on only using him in no-pressure situations (read: complete blowouts), which reduces the bullpen by one.  Except that on 4/9, when most of his bullpen needed a night off, he was forced to use Broderick in a close situation.  So he comes in and lets the game get out of hand.  This was one of the main reasons I advocated AGAINST a team like the Nats keeping a rule5 guy (as discussed in this March 16th post).  I would like to see the Nats negotiate a trade with the Cardinals so we can stash him in AAA and bring up Balester.

Not good or bad necessarily.

• John Lannan‘s 4/6 start (running thread/gamer/box) didn’t look that great (5ip, 7hits, 3ER) as he demonstrated the danger of leadoff hits or walks.  Three straight baserunners to start the game lead to two runs and it could have been worse had he not embarassed Logan Morrison on three straight curveballs to get out of an easy sac fly situation for a 3rd run.  Lannan’s showing more velocity than I remember, 90-91mph but acting like a sinkerballer (cool stat heard on TV; Lannan ranks 4th in the majors over the past few years in ground-ball percentage).  I put Lannan closer to the “good” category because his BABIP is .333 and his xFIP ranks him best among the starters so far.
• Tom Gorzelanny‘s season debut 4/9 (gamer/box) had some good (he retired 8 straight after giving up 2 first inning runs and he had 8 Ks in 5 1/3 innings), and some bad (two homers plus a long fly-ball that almost was a third homer to Carlos Beltran, needing 26 pitches to get out of the first inning and throwing 98 to complete just 5 1/3 innings).  Hi start may have gone completely differently had he gotten a borderline strike-3 call the pitch prior to Beltran’s first inning homer.  I like WHIP as a better rough indicator than ERA for starters; and Gorzelanny may have given up 6 runs (5 earned) in less than 6 innings, but he only put 6 baserunners on in those 5 1/3 innings.  Most of the time, a whip around 1 per inning gets absorbed by double plays and stranded base runners; today they all scored.

Quick Thoughts on the offense

• The words “Partially torn labrum” are not a good thing for Adam LaRoche, and I’m afraid we’re about to lose him for a very long time.  Like perhaps the season.  To make matters worse he hurt his leg sliding on Sunday and was taken out of the game (putting Pudge at 1B for the first time in years).  Ironically, Michael Morse playing first base was a very early-into-the-offseason suggestion; keep Josh Willingham in left and play Morse at first.  Of course, now we’re potentially looking at the worst possible situation; we blow FA dollars on a 2nd tier first-baseman, trade away Willingham for assets that are either hurt or in the minors, and then watch our first baseman go down with injury the first week of the season.  Not good news.
• Wilson Ramos‘s excellent start is quickly answering two questions for the Nats; who is the catcher of the (immediate) future?  And, how will Ivan Rodriguez be used this year?  Well the answer to the second question is quickly becoming “once a week backup,” as Pudge is looking incredibly over-matched at the plate.  It may be a sad ending for Pudge; despite still being excellent defensively, if he can’t hit .200 he may be forced into retirement after this season.
• I like what Danny Espinosa is doing thus far; if he can force himself into the upper-end of this lineup, the team will be better for it.  Especially as a switch hitter; he could allow us to return Werth to a more natural batting position (like 5th).

Overall Summary

Despite not getting nearly as good a set of starts as the first turn through, the team takes 2 of 3 in NY and salvages a .500 road trip.  Can’t ask for much more than that.  I’m going the Wednesday game and can’t wait to see Roy Halladay vs Lannan.  Should be good.

Lannan has the only W for the rotation thus far. Photo: blog.prorumors.com

A major league team’s rotation cycles somewhere between 33-34 times a year.  As I did with the Spring training games, I will try to do a good/bad/indifferent each time through for the pitching staff.  I’ll focus more on the starters but will mention the relievers as is merited.

Good

• Livan Hernandez‘s opening day start (running blog/gamer/box score) may have gone down as a loss, but it was a pretty nifty gem.  He gave up two runs on four hits with no walks in 6 1/3 on only 77 pitches.  He retired 15 in a row after a 2nd inning homer given up to Jason Heyward.  He may have gotten the loss but it was a quality start for sure and he probably pitches a complete game if the Nats could score.
• John Lannan goes 5 complete for the win in the 2nd game of the season (blog/gamer/box score).  Its amazing what a little run support will do for a guy.  I do agree though with Steven from FJB, who criticizes the decision to bring Lannan back after an hour’s rain delay just so he can pitch the 5th and get the W.  Why would he have possibly had Lannan return after an hour’s delay?  That’s why you have long men in the bullpen.  That should have been Broderick or Gaudin in to re-start the game.
• Jordan Zimmermann‘s first start of the season (running blog/gamer/box score) was promising: 2er in 6ip and finishing those 6 innings in just 84 pitches.  Not very many Ks though (only two through six) for a strike out pitcher.  Perhaps he was pitching to contact.
• Sean Burnett: apparently our new “closer” for now.  He’s pitched pretty effectively in limited opportunities.
• Jason Marquis: his 4/5 start (gamer and box)was the first game that I have gotten to see.  And I thought he looked pretty good.  He went 6 1/3, gave up 6 hits and 0 walks and was efficient all night (he was only at 78 pitches when he got removed).  He only had 2 ks but was throwing lots of strikes.   His fastball showed around 90 with great movement and he got lots of groundballs (11 grounders and 5 fly balls).  The middle of the Marlins order had his number but he controlled the rest of the squad.

Bad

• Doug Slaten: three games and three failures in the Loogy role to start the season.  Gotta do better.  Your job is to get the lefties out.  He may not have given up an earned run yet but his whip is a nifty 12.00 through three games.
• The Bullpen on 4/3/11.  Broderick, Gaudin, and Coffey‘s 4/3/11 performances.  Not.  Good.  Notice that these three guys are all brand new to a very good bullpen last year.  I’m not panicking, but i am saying.  Balester may have his ears burning if (especially) Gaudin can’t get it done.

Possibly Concerning

• Storen seems to be getting his confidence back.  But he cannot be giving up two hits and a walk in the 9th inning of a tied game (as he did on 4/5).  He’s not getting any Ks either, and we need his k/9 ratio to be up in the 8.5-9.0 range.

Pitching Summary:

We’ve had four starts and gotten 3 “real” quality starts (plus Lannan on his way to a 4th when a rain delay caused his night to be shortened).  You cannot ask for much more out of your starting rotation.  Last year our first four starts went like this:

• Lannan; 3 2/3ip, 7 hits, 3bbs and 5 runs.
• Marquis: 4ip, 8 hits, 3 bbs and 6 runs.
• Stammen: 5ip, 9 hits, 4 runs.
• Mock: 3 1/3ip, 4hits but FIVE walks and 2 runs.

For the record, that was 17 runs in 16 innings over 4 days.  Our first four starts in 2011 elicited 23 2/3ip and just 7 earned runs.  Quite the turn around.  Too bad the team couldn’t score any runs and went 1-3.

Thoughts on the offense

We’re getting great production out of our stars (Zimmerman has a 1.406 ops through 4 games and Werth is at .945).  Ramos is mashing the ball and Espinosa is 4/10 so far.  The rest of the team?  Bad.  Until last night the lead off  hitters were 0-for-the-season and Riggleman is already swapping players around to put Espinosa at leadoff (a pretty good decision if he can handle it).  Ankiel is 1/12 (but that “one” is a mashed homer, which St. Louis fans are probably cackling about, since they continually warn Nats fans that this is exactly what Ankiel does).  They’ve only scored 10 runs in 4 games (6 of them in their sole win) and definitely need to show better run support.

Summary

Great starting pitching to go with little run support.  I hope this isn’t the story of the season.