Before we get into what I think is going to be a busy off-season of 40-man moves, I wanted to publish this piece.
As I was doing the final 2026 rotation piece, I found myself looking at year-end stats and immediately thinking about 2027, so I captured that thought process into this post to start the conversation; what will our 2027 rotations look like, based on how 2026 finished up?
As always, this is pre-offseason, pre-non-tenders, pre trades, pre injury recovery, pre MLFA season, pre 2027 FA signings, etc etc. So this may look crazy different come April. But, hey, we’re not in the playoffs so what else are we gonna talk about?
Here we go.
Majors projection: Cavalli, Early, Gray, Alvarez, and a FA acquisition.
Cavalli, Early and Alvarez are no brainers. I’m going to assume Gray returns to the rotation despite his late 2026 prep as a reliever, which I’m assuming the team did to ease him back so he could get 2026 innings. Maybe that’s a bad assumption. Nonetheless assuming Gray is #4 starter that leaves one spot, which makes sense for a mid-level FA acquisition. I don’t think they should pursue a one-year rental looking to flip for trades; I sense this team is now better than that, despite a 77-85 finish.
Here’s a quick look at 2026-27 major league FAs: while I don’t see us signing Skubal, I could see taking a flier on a guy in the 1.0 bWAR range.
As for the rest of the guys who started for us this season still around, here’s what I think we should do:
- Send Kent back to AAA; he’s not ready.
- Same with Herz: his 2 show-me starts were awful.
- Perales should go back to AAA to stretch him out; he clearly couldn’t do MLB in relief with his wildness.
- Keep Cornelio, Lord, and Dion as 2-inning relievers in the majors, even if they all show some starter promise.
- Parker was already moved to relief before his TJ: he may not be back until mid 2027.
- Non-tender Irvin; with 100 starts now we know what we have unfortunately, and his $2.8M salary this season will jump to a level he’s not earning.
AAA candidates: JKent, Herz, Perales, Lyon, Hartle, Cebert, Susana, 1-2 MLFA/NRI types.
If we’re assuming the first three guys are in AAA rotation and are not being converted to relief or are in the majors rotation, that doesn’t leave a ton of room for our typical MLFA carousel. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Perales in particular moved into a power-arm relief role. Herz I could see them trying out as a multi-inning guy in the same role that Dion, Lord, and Cornelio can now do, based on his poor September results. That would free up spots for a couple AA arms who need to move up and/or a couple of NRI types to get runs with the organization next year.
I’ve put Susana here since there’s so many guys coming off the DL in AA, even though I can’t imagine him going straight to AAA after missing the entirety of 2026. But, I could be wrong, especially since they put him on the AAA playoff roster and he’s raising eyebrows in the AFL. I like having the trio of Lyon, Hartle, and Cebert in the AAA rotation as core acquisitions for this front office, possibly making their way into the discussion in the majors not unlike Kent, Cornelio, etc.
As for the rest of the guys who got meaningful AAA starts this year, not many remain that we haven’t already talked about. Both Champlain and Lara will be MLFAs but could come back in LR/SS modes like they served this year.
AA candidates: Clemmey, Randall, Tejeda, Sykora, Stuart, Rosario, Garcia, Sime
It’s going to be a big assumption that all four 60-day DL guys (Stuart, Rosario, Sykora, Garcia) return and are ready to go day 1, but if they do, I can see the two least-performant AA starters (Randall and Tejeda) moved to the pen and making a 2027 rotation of Clemmey and the four guys who missed most/all of 2026. Garcia may be the least likely to make the opening day 2027, given that he was a stretch to start in AA to begin with and went straight to full season DL, which could imply a mid-2027 ready date.
Sime struck out 76 guys in 46 High-A innings; he really should be in AA, but he also walked 39 guys in 46 High-A innings, so he may start back in High-A in 2027 looking for more control. Honestly, he’s kind of like a high school pitcher who throws mid 90s: if you just blow it by every hitter you’re not developing, and he’s still in the “nobody can hit my fastball” range of the minors.
As for the rest of AA starters this year: that’s basically it. Swan was technically a AA starter, but he’s never really even earned a AA promotion, and I can’t see him starting in AA next season. Luckham has been moved to relief and he may have reached his ceiling as a Nats minor leaguer.
High-A Candidates: Harmon, Swan, Maddox, Fisher, Sullivan, Sales, Tepper, Manning
Getting to even 5-6 solid starter candidates here was a stretch, and I could see some of the AA guys pushed down here. I think Maddox may have hit his ceiling (he got shredded in AA and had to move back to High-A) and may move to the pen. Same with Sullivan. I don’t know if there’s any Low-A guys coming up past Harmon, so this is a lot of the same guys who ended the year in Wilmington. Tepper was the “non-DL DL guy” who never hit the DL despite not pitching past Mid August; one has to assume he’s not badly hurt.
As for the rest of the High-A starters not listed here … that’s it. Every other guy who got meaningful starts in High-A this season has either already been moved to the pen (Polanco), has been moved up (Randall, Tejeda), down (Meckley), or out (Sthele). They used openers a lot early; Bruni and Biven especially, maybe those guys get converted to full-time starters. We didn’t draft any “straight to High-A” starters this year, you know the SEC friday night starter type in the first couple rounds who is already well past low-A.
Low-A Candidates: Reyes, Meckley, Colon, Portorreal, Harris, Moss, Dallas, GPeterson
This is a combination of guys who finished the season in F’burg’s 2026 rotation, plus the three most obvious candidates from the 2026 draft to join them in 2027. Pushing a prep RHP here in Harris could be iffy, but that didn’t stop this team from doing the same to start 2026 with Sime and Harmon in low-A, so that’s a good prediction for 2027. Dallas may not be ready to go to open 2027 thanks to the timing of his TJ surgery, but a Wake Forest weekend starter is going to be at least in Low-A to start when he’s ready to go. The FCL guys who performed this year already got moved up, so its hard to see anyone else joining. If they need more names, there’s a slew of 2026 draftees and NDFAs who will try out for the rotation. Gage Peterson was a 7th rounder starter with App State; he might be a good candidate here as well.
As for the rest: I think failure this season in Low-A will send the likes of Weaver, De la Cruz, Millikan, and Minckler to the pen. But, they could also get another run in the rotation. Conradt and Hughes were doing some longer relief before hitting 60-day DL: they could factor into the conversation if healthy to start 2027. Fredericksburg started last season with tandem rotations to try out 8-10 different guys as “starters” before eventually settling into a more normal pattern.
For a team that made the playoffs in 2026, this is not a lot of talent to lead their 2027 rotation.
FCL candidates: Medina, Lopez, Robles, Gillis, 2026 draftees and NDFAs, and bullpen/rehabs.
The team has a huge influx of arms from the 2026 draft, including the 9 arms they drafted and another 12 NDFAs; I’d imagine these guys will form the bulk of the FCL rotation and the Low-A bullpens in 2027. If you want to read about the 2026 NDFAs, go here. If you want to read about the 2026 arms we drafted, go here for rounds 1-10 and here for 11-20. In each case I researched their role in college and you can try to guess who may be a starter versus a reliever in pro ball.
There’s three guys on the 60-day DL in the FCL who could factor in here as well: Henry Moreno, Jose Feliz, and Darrell Lunar. Feliz is the big name here: he dominated both the DSL and FCL before spending the entire 2026 season on the DL. He’s a somewhat decently ranked prospect who could be a game changer. Lunar was a middling starter in 2025 before missing this whole season. Lastly there’s Moreno: he’s now missed three straight full seasons, and I can’t help but wonder if he’s actually still on the roster at this point.
DSL candidates: Sarit, Carrasco, Ruiz, some 60-day DL returnees, and some 2027 signings.
I’d imagine they’ll return some of this year’s awful rotation (Sarit was the “best” with a 4.50 ERA) and join them with whoever they sign in January 2027. The Team was just so bad all in all, they have nowhere to go but up. The international draft team has focused so much on hitters lately, maybe they need to divert some funds to arms this cycle.
That’s it. Did I forget any one?