Nationals Arm Race

Instead of doing the last “Prospect check-in” post, I thought we’d just dive right into a macro analysis of our prospects.

As we wrap up the 2026 minor league seasons, I thought it would be a good time to put pen to paper and give a ranking of where our prospects sit at the end of the season. I did this last year too, thinking it was better to do prospect rankings in September than in April, when all the thoughts and analysis of players is a bit fresher. We may add more prospects with trades and another IFA signing class over the winter, and maybe we’ll revisit this at the end of Spring training with the benefit of all the professional ranks.

This is also a good crowd sourcing post for this community to pipe up about someone I have too high, too low, or missing altogether. I definitely “missed” some players in the post-season 2025 ranking, and as I double/triple checked this list I found a couple others that I had missed too. During my typo-review of this post, I probably would have tweaked some ranks as well here and there, but I didn’t want to completely rewrite the thing.

This list includes players who ended the season on the MLB roster but who still have rookie eligibility as still being “prospects” (names like Cornelio, Perales, etc). If a player has exhausted rookie eligibility by PAs or IP, they’re not here. I’ve generally not included any MLFAs we signed in 2026, assuming they’re on one year deals and will leave the org. There are a few 6-year MLFAs to be on this list, and there’s some that may declare MLFA after the end of the season (Holden Powell is the only 2020 or previous year draftee who qualifies here at this point, Andry Lara is the only 2019 IFA that we originally signed who remains, but trade asset Kevin Made also was an 19IFA who I think could declare after the WS ends). If so we’ll remove them in the off-season.

Post publishing update/clarification on rookie status: I generally ignore service time for rookie status versus ABs/IPs, which at least one of the other major shops do as well. This means that a couple of our prospects are in this weird middle ground where they’ve been on a MLB roster for more than 45 days but have not accumulated the 130 ABs or the 50 IP. Harry Ford sits at 106 official ABs as of the end of 2026, came into 2026 with 28 days of MLB service time with Seattle, and has been on the Nats MLB roster since July 17th. That’s now put him FAR above the 45 days, but as a backup catcher he’s still not to the min ABs. Riley Cornelio is another: 36IP this season, and he bounced up and down a ton; my back of the envelope calculations put him at either 43 or 44 service days prior to his Sept 2 callup, then he got another month so he’s well past 45 days too. Jackson Kent is close: he got brought up 8/12, sent down 9/23 so that’s I think 41 days. Interesting timing: did the team do that so he was guaranteed to be rookie eligible in 2027? Probably.

Question: should I eliminate from consideration service time exhausted rookies like this?

Methodology: To compile this list, I went through all prospects who I’d ranked previously, or who have ever appeared on a ranking list as a starting point. I ensured that every starting pitcher on a full season squad was represented, as well as any positional starter who wasn’t a 26MLFA. This included most of our 2026 trade receipts and the top few rounds of prospects from the 2026 draft. This ended up being a bit more than 115 players of the approximately 145 non-40 man players we have in the entire domestic system. I’ve given some thought to just ranking EVERY single farmhand, but I don’t know if there’s value of adding 30 more middle relievers, bench players, and 17yr-old DSL players at the end of the list. Let’s just say that if you’re in the bullpen of Low-A, you’re not a prospect and I’m not bothering to try to rank you unless you make it to AAA.

I then put them into groups of 10 that I’ll end up discussing below. In the end, once you’re outside of the top 40 or so, there’s not a ton of difference between players within a grouping (meaning, the 51st player isn’t appreciably different from the 59th ranked player), but I tried to make sure that a player in the 50s is distinctly more valuable than someone in the 70s.

In the writeups, instead of going player by player, i’m going to write a bit about notables or arguable players in the sections. If there’s a player who i generally diverge from the last few prospect rankings, I’ll talk about why.

Hope you enjoy. Feel free to tell me who I’ve got way too high or way too low and I’ll consider adjustments for next Spring’s list.

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1-10:

1 Eli Willits SS
2 Seaver King SS
3 Jarlin Susana RHP (Starter)
4 Travis Sykora RHP (Starter)
5 Miguel Sime Jr. RHP (Starter)
6 Devin Fitz-Gerald SS
7 Gavin Fein SS
8 Chris Hacopian 2B
9 Jackson Kent LHP (Starter)
10 Landon Harmon RHP (Starter)

Comments: For the most part, I don’t think this is too controversial a top 10. I think Eric Longenhagen is being ridiculous with his #30 ranking for King, and based on his 2026 stats he’s clearly our system #2, and most other major shops also agree. Sime up to #5 may be a bit arguable, but I believe his 2026 season merits it, and the struggles of both Fitz-Gerald and Fein pushed them down a little bit in my book. I could see why one may push back on Fitz-Gerald and Fein being this high; maybe they should be after Hacopian and Kent. Splitting hairs perhaps. I’m still not entirely sold on Kent’s future state, worrying that he’s the next iteration of DJ Herz or Mitchell Parker; lefty starters who solved the minors but who just couldn’t cut it in the majors. Harmon at #10 is the classic “prep RHP big bonus kid who could be the next coming of Verlander … or who may never make it out of A-Ball.” I had him exactly at #10 in April, and his 2026 did nothing really to raise or lower him. I really hope he has a healthy, breakout 2027 and he finishes the season in the AA rotation. The few starts he gave us in 2026 were more than promising.

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11-20

11 Samil Serrano OF (Corner)
12 Ronny Cruz SS
13 Chase Brunson OF (CF)
14 Harry Ford C
15 Coy James SS
16 Ethan Petry 1B/OF (Corner)
17 Cayden Wallace 2B/3B
18 Jack Cebert RHP (Starter)
19 Yoel Tejeda Jr. RHP (Starter)
20 Marconi German SS

Comments: Yes this is super-high for Serrano, but it’s completely inline with the other ranking shops after he crushed DSL after getting a big Jan 2026 bonus. One may think Cruz belongs wherever Fitz-Gerald is, or perhaps the reverse (FitzGerald should be more like 12-13 instead of where i’ve got him at #6) … but Cruz struggled a bit more upon his promotion, and had further to rise from the beginning of 2026, so just outside of top 10 sounds right. I have no idea how good Brunson is; I’ve just got him ranked roughly where other shops have him. Ford: he’s fallen a long way since being perhaps our #2 prospect, but anyone who thinks he’s too low has to explain why he hit .223 in AAA and is hitting .189 in the majors. I’ve put Wallace way back into play here with his .900 OPS and near 30-homer season. Oh, and he’s batting 3rd for the 90-win AAA team in the playoffs. Cebert and Tejeda together makes sense: Cebert has better numbers, but Tejeda is younger; both in AA after mid-season promotions. German may not be long for SS but has continued to produce moving from DSL->FCL.

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20s:

21 Alejandro Rosario RHP (Starter)
22 Luke Williams SS
23 Alex Clemmey LHP (Starter)
24 Davian Garcia RHP (Starter)
25 Luke Dickerson SS/CF
26 Riley Cornelio RHP (Starter/Reliver?)
27 Sam Peterson OF (CF)
28 Josh Hartle LHP (Starter)
29 Isaac Lyon RHP (Starter)
30 Yohandy Morales 3B

Comments: Clemmey falling all the way here is just acknowledgement that his current path has stalled completely. I had him #6 at the beginning of the season. This might be too high for Garcia, but a 23yr old starting the year in AA is nothing to sneeze at, then he went straight to the full season DL. I have Dickerson well below other shops (Espn/McDaniel has him #7!!) because I’ve really just yet to see anything that makes me think, “wow this guy is going to be awesome.” He’s now got more than 700 Minor league at bats at a combined .214/.352/.363 slash. Somehow he made the end-of-season Low-A all star team hitting .233 and striking out 117 times in 93 games.

Is Cornelio actually too low? I dunno; it seems like he’s destined for the bullpen based on usage so his upside is limited. But, after a rocky MLB start he’s yet to give up an earned run in September and now has a very solid ERA+ for the year. Isaac Lyon is an interesting one: he started 2025 in Fredericksburg and ended it in Rochester. that’s 3 promotions in a season for a pretty unheralded draft pick; maybe #29 is actually too low. I’ve got De La Cruz hanging onto the last spot in the top 30; other shops have him higher, but he’s showing very little XBH power for a projected corner OF.

I’ve got Morales at the back end of the top 30; is that crazy? He’s certainly held his own in a handful of MLB games since his callup; maybe he deserves to be a few slots higher. He had an .882 OPS in AAA this year as a 24yr old and finished 17 games in the majors with an .851 OPS … with zero walks. I had to put him a chunk ahead of his fellow 4A sluggers like Ortiz and Pinckney, so the last guy in the top 30 makes sense.

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30s:

31 Caleb Lomavita C
32 Angel Feliz SS/3B
33 Yeremy Cabrera OF (corner)
34 Kevin Bazzell C
35 Will Dion LHP (Reliever)
36 Joe Glassey RHP (Reliever)
37 Ben Grable RHP (Reliever)
38 Luis Perales RHP (Starter)
39 Jorgelys Mota SS
40 Nauris De La Cruz OF (Corner)

Comments: I don’t like having relievers in my top 30. In fact, I generally don’t like having relievers in my top 40, but I did put the three best prospect relievers we seem to have in this section in Dion, Glassey, and Grable. This ranking for Angel Feliz is about 10 spots below other shops and probably isn’t “fair” given that he played the entire season as at 19yr old in High-A. Maybe he belongs at #30 instead of Morales. Lomavita and Bazzell are both here as the next best catching prospects behind the falling Ford. Maybe that’s unfair to Romero, who’s the starting C in AAA for a playoff team. De la Cruz is a lot higher on a couple other lists but I don’t see much special here: he as “just ok”

The big talking point player here is Perales; I just cannot fathom at this point why anyone has him anywhere near the top 30. Sure he throws hard; he can’t find the plate, and when he does he’s pitching to an 11+ ERA in the majors. He couldn’t throw more than 2-3 innings in AAA and didn’t have all-star numbers there either. What am I missing? Really loving that Bennett-for-Perales trade!

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40s

41 Abimelec Ortiz 1B/OF (Corner)
42 Andrew Pinckney OF (Corner)
43 Cooper Harris RHP (Starter)
44 Eriq Swan RHP (Starter)
45 Josh Randall RHP (Starter)
46 Max Romero Jr. C
47 Yovanny Cruz RHP (Reliever)
48 Erik Tolman LHP (Reliever)
49 Jack Sinclair RHP (Reliever)
50 Juan Duran 1B/OF (Corner)

Comments: I’ve got both Ortiz and Pinckney here as “still eligible 4-A hitters who seem like they’re stuck” in-between producing at a .900 OPS clip in AAA and hitting .180 in the majors. I’ve put a chunk of the “prospect relievers who have MLB time” in this range, including Cruz, Tolman, and Sinclair. Cooper Harris was our big-bonus prep RHP 4th rounder this year; he could shoot up or drop out depending on his 2027: maybe he’s Landon Harmon. Swan was hurt all year but has been a top-20 guy in the past; with a strong start to 2027 i’m sure he can shoot back up. Randall is in the same boat as the Hartle/Tejeda discussion earlier, except that his AA numbers were a lot worse this year. He arrived into our system as a fringe top30 guy but has now been pushed down 15 spots. If Juan Duran played SS he’d be a top 10 prospect; instead he’s a 1B corner OF type who shredded the DSL this year, so his value is more limited. I tell you what though; someone has to play 1B.

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50s

51 Luke Young RHP (Reliever)
52 Nick Mitchell OF (Corner)
53 Tyler Stuart RHP (Starter)
54 Riley Maddox RHP (Starter)
55 Rafael Ramirez Jr. SS
56 Victor Hurtado OF (Corner)
57 Browm Martinez OF (CF)
58 R.J. Sales RHP (Starter)
59 Cristian Vaquero OF (CF)
60 Carson Fischer RHP (Starter)

This is a natural section to collect a few falling prospects who used to be higher but who are slowly working their way out of relevance. This includes Stuart (who was a top 10 prospect upon acquisition in July 2024 and was even an NRI in Feb 2025 but who has now missed most of the last 2 seasons with injury). Ramirez was routinely in the top 20 of our ranks in 2024-25 but who has done little to earn that lofty status. Hurtado? Fangraphs had him as high as #5 in this system (because of course he did, b/c his methodology falls in love with 17yr olds with astronomical theoretical ceilings), and he actually did have a solid FCL season numbers wise, but he still projects as a slap-hitting outfielder with no power. Vaquero is perhaps the “best” example here, who has spent years in the top 10 of this system with his $4.9M signing bonus; he repeated Low-A for the 4th straight season this year, finally got to High-A as a 22yr old and had a .538 OPS. I threw in a couple of starters in Sales, Maddox, and Fischer here: Sales missed the entire season basically with injury but could actually be decent. Fischer had solid numbers but not much K/9. Maddox was great in High-A but struggled in a brief AA stint. This may actually be slightly too high for both Maddox and Fischer, but there’s a gap to the next set of full-season starters so maybe not.

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60s:

61 Juan Reyes LHP (Starter)
62 Rony Bello 2B/3B
63 Esnaider Vargas OF/SS
64 Holden Powell RHP (Reliever)
65 Austin Amaral RHP (Reliever)
66 Jacob Walsh 1B
67 Sandy Gaston RHP (Reliever)
68 Medina Maxim RHP (Starter)
69 Branden Boissiere OF (Corner)
70 Sam Brown OF (Corner)

This is a good section for the few remaining reliever “prospects” who might have value moving forward; that describes Powell (who I think is a 6yr MLFA after this season but who is in AAA), Amaral, and Gaston. Reyes is one of two FCL grad starters who got moved to Low-A upon season’s end. I’ve got a trio of 2nd tier OF prospects here who have had varying levels of success. Boissiere was solid in AA but is running out of time: he’ll turn 27 before next season, his last of his 6-year contract. Walsh hit 25 homers, most of them in the pitcher-friendly High-A league, so that’s something. He’s a big dude, 6’4 225 1B only though, so that’s why he’s 64th and not 24th. Medina Maxim is a potentially interesting one: he pitched in just 5 games in the DSL before the team said, “ok that’s good enough” and shipped him to Florida, the only mid-season DSL->FCL promotion this year. There, he got into exactly 2 games, got shelled, and frankly may have gotten hurt b/c he didn’t appear after July 13th.

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70s

71 Isaias Suarez OF (CF)
72 Angel Ramirez OF (Corner)
73 Brayan Cortesia SS
74 Noah Millikan RHP (Starter)
75 Phillips Glasser SS
76 Robert Cranz RHP (Reliever)
77 Kendeglys Virguez RHP (Reliever)
78 Marlon De La Cruz RHP (Starter)
79 Daniel Hernandez C
80 Kevin Made SS

By the time you get to this range, you’re in totally fallen prospect range (Cortesia, De La Cruz, Made), barely holding on starter range (Millikan), and a few lesser reliever prospects (Cranz, Virguez). Glasser showed lots of promise in 2026 and I had him on the edges of our top30, but AAA has exposed him as a punch-less 2B/3B guy who can’t really play SS and who thus needs to find another tool to break through, lese he’s going to hit 6year MLFA as a classic AAA-topped out org guy. Made remains here for now; he probably hits MLFA Nov 1st and used to be a mainstay in our top 20. Fangraphs ranked Suarez 19th in the system, because he’s obsessed with DSL teens who can’t even hit .200.

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80s

81 Alexander Meckley RHP (Starter)
82 Liam Sullivan LHP (Starter)
83 Lopez Juan RHP (Starter)
84 Thomas Schultz RHP (Reliever)
85 Kyle Luckham RHP (Reliever)
86 Elian Soto 1B/OF (Corner)
87 Jack Moroknek OF (Corner)
88 Sir Jamison Jones C
89 Courtland Lawson SS/3B
90 Andry Lara RHP (Reliever)

Comments: so, we’re in the range of players where you may read someone’s name and go, “oh man he should be higher.” Fair enough. Some of the guys in this section used to be much, much higher (Sir Jamison Jones for one, who’s in the top 30 for many and who Keith Law had at #14 in June), but a .658 OPS figure in Low-A just doesn’t merit a top 30 spot. Andry Lara is still here; he may be a MLFA as well in the off-season but he resigned once and threw AAA innings all year. There’s a couple 1b/OF types here who have hit lately (Soto, Moroknek), but their lack of playing a premium position works against them. Lawson is an interesting one: he’s now 26 and worked his way to AAA this season. is he a prospect? Or is he Jake Noll?

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90s

91 Jose Feliz RHP (Starter)
92 T.J. White OF (Corner)
93 Juan Obispo OF (CF)
94 Juan Cruz 1B
95 Robles Jean RHP (Starter)
96 Leuris Portorreal RHP (Starter)
97 Jonierbis Garces OF (Corner)
98 Tucker Biven RHP (Reliever)
99 Bryan Polanco RHP (Reliever)
100 Johnathan Thomas OF (CF)

Comments: Jose Feliz was awesome in 2025 in the FCL; straight to 60-day DL in 2026; where do you put him? Should he be closer to where a Tyler Stuart is? The 90+ range is why past a certain number it’s hard to definitively “rank” players. What’s the salient difference between a middling outfielder in the 60s like Sam Brown versus another one in the mid 90s like Johnathan Thomas? Probably not a ton.

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100+

101 Manuel Cabrera SS
102 Elijah Green OF (CF)
103 Teo Banks OF (Corner)
104 Dashyll Tejeda OF (CF)
105 Leodarlyn Colon RHP (Reliever)
106 Elijah Nunez OF (CF)
107 Levi Huesman LHP (Reliever)
108 Mikey Tepper RHP (Starter)
109 Brady Hill RHP (Reliever)
110 Adam Bloebaum RHP (Reliever)
111 Darrel Lunar RHP (Starter)
112 Greyson Gimenez RHP (Reliever)
113 Eiker Huizi RHP (Reliever)
114 Brenner Cox RHP (Reliever)
115 Merritt Beeker LHP (Reliever)
116 Enmanuel Carela RHP (Starter)
117 Marcus Brown SS
118 Huff Chance RHP (Reliever)
119 Dylan Tebrake RHP (Reliever)
120 Edgardo Figueroa C
121 Cesar Rojas RHP (Reliever)
122 Nick Hollifield C

Comments: A couple of these guys (Green and Tejeda in particular) have both had relatively recent stays in or near the top 30, but whose performance has dumped them well down the list. The arms in this section are generally low minors starters or guys who were started but who have gotten dumped into relief. Teo Banks has never appeared on any prospect list but just got stuck on our AFL 2026 roster, so I threw him in here. As for the rest of the 100+ crew, it’s almost entirely arms in our system, plus the full suite of Rule-5 minor league guys we slopped up last off-season (who I probably never should have added to my prospect XLS in the first place). A couple of these guys at one point or another sniffed a top 30 list: Brennar Cox before he converted to relief, Marcus Brown early in his career. I’d be surprised if half these guys are still with the team this time next year. But, there’s also some interesting names her. Tepper was hurt most of last year and struggled to get back this year; he could have an impactful 2027 since the team still thinks he’s a starter.

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Phew. Ok 122 players is crazy. Honestly I kind of gave up fine tuning the list at 100 or so. Look for some churn on this list in the off-season, and for some of our 2026 draftees to start joining this list as they move up the 2027 system.