We’ll take a quick break from CWS to talk about prospect rankings.
So, believe it or not, the final major pundit in the prospect ranking space has finally dropped its “preseason ranking” list for the Nats. Kiley McDaniel and Fangraphs released their pre-season Nats top 31 list last week (its 31 instead of a more normal number because they drive the notable prospects by their internal “Future Value” rating, and the Nats happened to have exactly 31 guys meet the threshold; other teams had many more or far fewer).
McDaniel’s list is … well, its different. I’d say that more than half his rankings are what i’d describe as wild deviations from the rest of the industry. Lets get into it. Here’s his full list:
| Fangraphs Rank | Last Name | First Name | Position | Yr |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wood | James | OF (Corner) | 2021 2nd |
| 2 | House | Brady | SS/3B | 2021 1st |
| 3 | Cavalli | Cade | RHP (Starter) | 2020 1st |
| 4 | Vaquero | Cristian | OF (CF) | 2022 IFA |
| 5 | Henry | Cole | RHP (Starter) | 2020 2nd |
| 6 | Millas | Drew | C | 2019 7th |
| 7 | Hassell III | Robert | OF (CF) | 2020 1st |
| 8 | Susana | Jarlin | RHP (Starter) | 2022 IFA |
| 9 | Baker | Darren | 2B | 2021 10th |
| 10 | Lile | Daylen | OF (CF) | 2021 2nd |
| 11 | Green | Elijah | OF (CF) | 2022 1st |
| 12 | Rutledge | Jackson | RHP (Starter) | 2019 1st |
| 13 | Bennett | Jake | LHP (Starter) | 2022 2nd |
| 14 | Irvin | Jake | RHP (Starter) | 2018 4th |
| 15 | Cruz | Armando | SS | 2021 IFA |
| 16 | Acevedo | Andy | OF | 2023 IFA |
| 17 | Pineda | Israel | C | 2016 IFA |
| 18 | Shuman | Seth | RHP (Starter) | 2019 6th |
| 19 | Ward | Thad | RHP (Starter) | 2018 5th |
| 20 | Brzykcy | Zach | RHP (Reliever) | 2020 NDFA |
| 21 | Alu | Jake | 3B | 2019 24th |
| 22 | Lipscomb | Trey | 3B | 2022 3rd |
| 23 | White | T.J. | OF (Corner) | 2021 5th |
| 24 | Saenz | Dustin | LHP (Starter) | 2021 4th |
| 25 | Willingham | Amos | RHP (reliever) | ? |
| 26 | Parker | Mitchell | LHP (Starter) | 2020 5th |
| 27 | Cate | Tim | LHP (Starter) | 2018 2nd |
| 28 | Ferrer | Jose | LHP (Reliever) | 2017 IFA |
| 29 | De La Rosa | Jeremy | OF (Corner) | 2018 IFA |
| 30 | Ramirez | Aldo | RHP (Starter) | 2018 IFA |
| 31 | Cox | Brenner | OF (CF) | 2022 4th |
So, commentary from the top:
- The top of his list is ok: Wood, House, Cavalli, even given Cavalli’s TJ.
- Vaquero at #4: we havn’t seen a rating this high for Vaquero since before the Soto trade pumped up the system with actual, real prospects and not bonus-dollar-amount prospects. This is just ridiculously speculative.
- Cole Henry at #5 really puts a ton of stock into him recovering fully from TOS, which (ahem Stephen Strasburg) is just not a guarantee. Early reports on Henry are good, but so far in his collegiate and pro career he’s presenting as incredibly delicate.
- Here’s where it starts getting weird: Drew frigging Millas is at #6, AHEAD of Robert Hassell. You know where MLBpipeline had Millas? 30th. Baseball America? 25th. Prospects1500? 38th. Keith Law? Not even mentioned in his top 30. I mean, i get that he’s done well so far this year, but this was supposed to be a pre-season list, and the dude hit .211 in AA last year. Furthermore, he’s projecting as a backup catcher at the MLB level! I don’t get it.
- Darren Baker getting some deserved love, up at #9 when many shops don’t even rank him.
- Daylen Lile at #10. He hit .219 in rookie ball two years ago then missed all of 2022 with TJ, but he’s #10 in the system ahead of a guy in Elijah Green that some pundits have at #2.
- Green at #11. Crazy low, as was Hassell.
- No love for Jake Bennett, dropping him out of top 10 to #13. I’m thinking his 2023 performance so far will correct that going forward.
- Andy Acevedo, the next in a long line of Nats prospects ranked highly b/c they got a lot of money in the IFA signing window despite nobody knowing a thing about them. Tell me; why is a 16yr old prospect in the DSL more highly ranked, ever, than a college guy whos in AAA? I honestly wonder why anyone who’s never even made it to a domestic league is ranked, ever.
- Seth Shuman gets some love at #18, though i’m not sure why. He had lesser numbers than a guy like Parker at the same level, and is out for the entirety of 2023, but he’s ranked higher.
- TJ White dumped to #23 when most shops have him at #10. Did we not count 2022 for White?
- Dustin Saenz ranked at #24 when nobody else is ranking him at all. Interesting, especially since he’s lighting it up right now (finally) and may get promoted soon.
- A first time for Amos Willingham to get ranked anywhere; this 17th rounder from 2019 has started 2023 on a roll, being basically unhittable in AA and earning a promotion to AAA.
- Tim Cate hanging on at #27, an odd choice given the other rankings here.
- Lastly, Jeremy De La Rosa, a stalwart in the top 10, comes in at #29. It seems to be because fangraphs has given the guy like a 20 hit tool.
Notable Omissions:
- Andry Lara: outside the top 31, Generally in the 12-15 range on other lists. I mean, I get it; the guy hasn’t performed in either low-A or high-A. He’s also 20; if he was from the US he’d be a sophomore pitching in a regional right now, not in high-A.
- Roismir Quintana: outside their top 31, usually in the 15-18 range. He was on the FCL all star team last year, but apparently has been squeezed out of the low-A OF and is playing 1B this year. A 6’1″ 1B only bat better hit the tar out of the ball, and he hasn’t.
- Matt Cronin: Outside top 31 on fangraphs, usually at least mentioned in the low 20s elsewhere. I guess lefty relievers don’t get a ton of prospect love.
- Jared McKenzie: Not a huge omission, just noting that others have him in their mid 20s.
- Gerardo Carrillo; how far this guy has fallen, from AA starter prospect to a full season injury early in 2023. Not sure what it was, but it smells like TJ.
So, at long last, that’s the end of the Nats prospect rankings for the season. Here’s a link to each list:
- Fangraphs/Longenhagen Nats top 31 6/6/23
- ProspectsDigest/Werner 4/11/23 top 10
- MLBpipeline Nats top 30 2/28/23
- ProspectsLive nats top30 2/20/23
- RJ Anderson/CBSsports Nats prospects 2/6/23
- Keith Law Nats top 20 2/6/23
- BA Handbook Jan 2023 (no link, print only)
- Prospects1500/Caleb Sanders 2023 top 50 1/20/23
- Bleacherreport Joel Reuter Jan 2023
- BaseballProspectus/Jarrett Seidler Nats top10 1/11/23
- BA top 10 12/1/22
- Prospect361/Rich Wilson Nov2022 top 15 11/25/22
Seems like a lot of overreacting to small samples in FG’s list…
Keith Law has a new mock draft up: https://theathletic.com/4620994/2023/06/20/mlb-mock-draft-first-round-changes/
Not really anything new: he has PIT take Crews with the Nats taking Skenes. Two notes of interest: (1) he could see PIT cutting a deal with someone and not taking Crews, but if that happens, he thinks it will be for a position player; (2) he thinks the Nats will take Crews if they have a Crews v. Skenes choice – and he seems virtually certain the Nats will take the other LSU player if PIT drafts one of them.
Derek
20 Jun 23 at 10:34 am
Yeah, FG’s list is crazy. I published my reaction now so I wouldn’t lose the writing.
Mocks: i’m not bothering to collet mocks anymore; the Nats are getting either Crews or Skenes, depending on what Pitt does, and i’m ecstatic with either.
Todd Boss
20 Jun 23 at 12:17 pm
Todd – if PIT cuts a deal and the Nats have a choice between Skenes and Crews at #2…who would you take (recognizing that your primary emotion will be ecstasy in either case)?
Derek
20 Jun 23 at 5:38 pm
If both are available i’d take Crews. Safer pick. A true CF with both power and an advanced hit tool, above average arm and speed? that’s 5 tools. That’s Andruw Jones, that’s a young Mike Trout. I think he’s fast to the majors.
What do I think the Nats do if that happens? I’ll bet they do the same. Rizzo stays true to his board; that’s how he got Giolito, that’s why he took Rendon when others waffled. I’ll bet he has Crews above Skenes on his board. He’s not afraid to trade from surplus, and if suddenly this team finds itself with too many high-end outfielders … he’ll trade one of them.
Todd Boss
20 Jun 23 at 10:35 pm
Longenhagen’s list was indeed quite weird. He seemed to be looking to be the contrarian about nearly all the highly ranked guys. I’ve got my concerns about Green, but even I wouldn’t be nearly that harsh.
The Nats having the choice between Crews and Skenes indeed would be delicious and (we hope) a no-lose situation. (I’ll insert here that I’ve poked around a little on Pirate sites to see what their fans and thinking, and it seems pretty clear that they’re going to be pissed if the team passes on Crews and Skenes.)
The case for Skenes is that there have been only a handful of pitchers in the majors over the last couple of decades who have been as good as he has the capability to be. The case against Skenes is that Max is about the only one in that elite company who has managed not to have significant injury time. (Fingers crossed that Othani can hold together.)
As I’ve watched Crews play over the last few weeks, the hitting comp who has come to mind is Rendon, who was a similarly dominant hitter when he was in college. Like Rendon, I’m not sure that Crews is going to consistently post big HR numbers in the majors, but he’s going to hit everything, and with authority. That said, no one has thought of Rendon as an inner-circle All Star, even though he’s compensated like one.
If given the choice between Skenes and Crews, I think that I’ve come around to voting for Skenes. He has the potential to be in the top five at what he does. I just don’t think you can say that about Crews. I think Skenes is worth the inevitable gamble that comes with drafting any pitcher.
KW
20 Jun 23 at 11:14 pm
If LSU can beat Wake tonight, it could be Skenes vs. Lowder tomorrow.
KW
21 Jun 23 at 9:29 am
LOL, just now reading the Law mock and see that he makes at least some comparison between Crews and Rendon as college hitters.
KW
21 Jun 23 at 9:32 am
Crews reminds me a bit of an OF version of Bregman (which is rather similar to an OF version of Rendon).
Normally my preferences are pretty well-aligned with the goals of the organization: I want more regular season wins toward the end of making the playoffs as often as possible, toward the end of winning the postseason crapshoot. Here, however, I think I prefer Skenes to Crews even though I think taking the position player is probably the better bet. If you look at Rendon, Bregman, Strasburg, and G. Cole, their pre-FA fWARs are: 30.6 (Rendon), 30.8 (Bregman), 22.7 (Strasburg), and 28.9 (Cole). Strasburg is interesting in that his performance was consistently excellent whereas the others were much more up and down (especially Cole). Stras’s WAR is lower almost entirely because of injuries. I understand this exercise is not close to scientific, but I think it provides some evidence that top-tier college hitters are likely to provide more value than pitchers, even though Cole’s total is close enough to Bregman/Rendon that it ought not to matter much.
At the same time, I prefer watching a team that has an ace (or multiple aces). I’ve truly enjoyed paying close attention to Skenes’s starts at LSU over the last month; I’ve of course watched Crews over this period and he’s just not nearly as exciting as Skenes to watch. I think the “must see” starting pitcher is the most exciting thing to have on the team you root for, and Skenes has legit potential to be just that. So, as a fan, I’m rooting for the Nats to get Skenes even though there’s a pretty strong case to take Crews (or even Langford) over him.
Derek
21 Jun 23 at 9:49 am
A more thorough examination of Crews v. Skenes, from the PIT perspective: https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/2666962
Derek
21 Jun 23 at 10:28 am
Skenes vs Crews if both fall to Nats … i remember someone calling Strasburg a disappointment and a pundit pointing out that the guy has 30 WAR. If you get 30 war out of a draft, that’s a massive win. He’s a disapointment in that he has no shot at 60 war and the hall of fame … but a Hall of Fame player is such a 1 in a 1000 player in our sport, its really hard to criticize. I mean, lets look at Harper. Like him or not, he already has 42 WAR at age 30, plays in a band-box, has a legit chance at 500 career homers, and if he puts together one more top-end MVP season is a virtual lock for the hall … and people STILL think he’s an underachiever. Sometimes you just can’t win.
I want to see the Nats get Skenes honestly; i agree with you. I want to see this rotation in 3 years: Gray, Gore, Cavalli, Henry, Skenes. How f*cking awesome would that be if all 5 guys were healthy, at 100%, and the rest of the league is looking at our rotation and calling it the second coming of the mid 90s Braves or the 00 Oakland Athletics.
Todd Boss
21 Jun 23 at 12:32 pm
I would buy the comp of Bregman for Crews’s offensive game, and even the one of Andrew McCutcheon floated in the article link. But I wish people would stop mentioning him in terms of Trout. Trout has 84.4 fWAR (and bWAR, amazingly) and 170 career wRC+, 174 OPS+. Crews is not a comp for that. If he was, there would be no conversation.
As Todd just noted, Bryce has a legit shot at the HOF . . . and only half the WAR of Trout. I don’t think Crews is Bryce, but I’d give him a lot more of a shot at being Bryce than I would of being Trout.
The more that I’ve watched LSU, the more I’ve been struck that Skenes is a lot more of a (*potentially*) transcendent player than Crews is. That’s not a knock on Crews, who is better than any collegiate in the last several drafts. I just think that Skenes is a true ace, probably the hardest thing to find in baseball these days.
KW
21 Jun 23 at 11:34 pm
I agree with Todd 100%. Pittsburgh probably makes the decision for them but the Nats need starting pitching far far more than an outfielder.
I just hope the LSU coach doesn’t ruin Skenes’s arm this week.
Mark L
22 Jun 23 at 6:18 am
Well, we get Skenes vs Lowder.
https://d1baseball.com/college-world-series/nations-eyes-turn-to-lsus-paul-skenes-against-wake-forests-rhett-lowder/
Again, i’m dumbfounded at the stupidity of college coaches. Last night, with his starter struggling with his command, he uncorks a wild pitch to score a run with the cleanup hitter up … leaving 2nd and 3rd with one out. F*CKING WALK HIM. So stupid. I said it out loud. next pitch? 3 run homer, and that’s the game 5-2. UVA’s coach blew their opening game in a similar fashion, allowing an overmatched reliever to give up 2 homers, a single, a walk and a HBP before bringing in his f*cking closer … WHO SHOULD HAVE BEEN IN THERE INTHE FIRST PLACE.
Crews admittedly has not been that impressive in the CWS. but don’t forget what he did in the regular season, in the SEC mind you: .423/.565/.722 slash line, 18 homers in 67 games, 68 walks to 44 punch outs. And he’s a true CF.
Todd Boss
22 Jun 23 at 10:51 am
Oh, and to MarkL’s point … be prepared for Skenes to pitch 9 innings and 130 pitches today. Because throwing today means he’s unavailable for the group finals going Sat/Sun/Mon; there’s just no way he can throw a start on Thurs and come back even for Monday on 3 days rest … if LSU even gets to a third game. That’s kind of the bummer of the cWS scheduling; these teams play weekend series all year, then are asked to play like 8 games in 12 days in Omaha and its just unfair to pitching staffs that are recruited for and built for weekend to weekend work.
Todd Boss
22 Jun 23 at 10:53 am
Skenes will be on a normal-for-pros, four-days-rest schedule for his start tonight (as opposed to the once-a-week schedule for college pitchers). It’ll be interesting to see what his stuff looks like. I expect 100+ out of the gate but will be looking to see if he holds his stuff as he gets above 50 pitches.
I have to say, I’m a bit concerned about a high pitch count tonight. Obviously, my preference would be for LSU to have treated Skenes with kid gloves all season (i.e., take him out when he gets to 100 pitches). But that’s unrealistic, probably, to expect of college coaches. The higher pitch counts don’t worry me as much as they would in the pros mainly because of the longer rest between starts that pitchers get in college. But with the CWS schedule, the reason for my reduction in worry is gone. So, I’m worried. Still, I think 125 pitches tonight is probably better than 100 pitches tonight followed by an inning or two on Monday (and I fear we get the worst of both worlds – 125 pitches tonight plus some relief pitching over the weekend).
Let’s all keep those fingers crossed.
Derek
22 Jun 23 at 12:13 pm
Callis seems to think there’s a decent chance PIT takes Skenes: https://www.mlb.com/news/pipeline-inbox-can-paul-skenes-jump-to-the-top-pick?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage
And Jesse Doguherty profiles Skenes: https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/06/22/lsu-paul-skenes-pitcher-mlb-draft/
Derek
22 Jun 23 at 2:12 pm
There’s definitely some weird takes out there on the draft. Callis wants to mix it up. Kiley McDaniel has skenes mocked fifth! which is patently ridiculous unless he blows out his arm between now and the draft. law keeps ranking Langford over Skenes, which again seems contrarian.
Todd Boss
23 Jun 23 at 9:27 am