I was on Tiktok the other day (yeah, yeah, don’t judge), and got served a super interesting video, that made me think about something rather … depressing?
We’re watching in real time the demise of the Starting Pitcher in the sport, something that I study a lot in this blog. 300 career wins was the old threshold of greatness and automatic induction to the Hall (24 pitchers have 300 career wins; 23 of them are in the Hall, and the 24th is PED-associated Roger Clemens). After we induct Scherzer, Verlander, and Kershaw, I seriously believe the “new” threshold for career wins may very well be 250, as there’s not a pitcher in the game who you’d currently project getting anywhere close to that figure. Heck, with the demise of the starter, we may not see someone get to 200 wins anytime in our lifetime.
Meanwhile, we’re having kind of the “reverse problem” with career homers. The 3-true outcome, no shame in striking out slugger has taken over the sport, and soon we’re going to have some very interesting Hall of Fame discussions for players with gaudy career home run numbers but relatively little other accomplishments.
There have been 28 players to have reached 500 career homers. Of those 28 players:
- 19 are in the Hall
- 7 are PED-associated sluggers (Bonds, A-Rod, Sosa, McGwire, Palmeiro, Manny, and Sheffield)
- 2 are yet to be eligible but who will be 1st ballot entries (Pujols, Cabrera)
So, basically 500 homers, like 300 wins or 3000 hits or 3000 strikeouts, is usually an automatic ticket to Cooperstown.
Let me present Kyle Schwarber. In 2026 he tied for the MLB lead in homers with 45, and he now sits at 385 for his career.
He has just finished his age 33 season, and is signed for four more seasons with Philadelphia. He averages 43 homers per 162 games. He’s Philadelphia’s full time DH, playing in a lefty hitter paradise and he’s not bothered by having to play the field, meaning he can stay healthy quite easily. He played in all 162 games last year, 156 this year. He led the league in homers in 2025 (56) while striking out an astounding 197 times. This year? 220 strikeouts, again leading the league. He’s almost a shoe-in at this point to get to 500 career homers.
Playing a little conservative what-if on the next few years of his career….
- 2027: Lets say he hits 40 again.
- 2028: 35
- 2029: 30
- 2030: 25
That gives him some significant age-based regression for the rest of this contract… and even with him halving his homer total by 2030 he’ll still reach 500 homers in like July of that season. 2030 only puts him through his age 37 season too; he could totally sign up another 3 year DH contract to take him to 40 and easily add on a slew more.
Honestly, the above progression is super conservative. I’d not be surprised in the least if he averages 40 for the rest of his contract in Philly. Heck, if we’re talking about his current homer pace, he may end up with closer to 600 homers than 500. He’d have to have a major injury that cost him a ton of games, or he’d have to fall off a cliff to NOT reach 500 homers at this point in his career.
So, why are we talking about this? Well, despite his current homer production, he has just 22.3 bWAR for his CAREER. Thanks to being a full time DH and generally hitting in the .230-.240 range, he does not accumulate a ton of WAR. In fact, he may only get into the low 30s of bWAR for his career when its all said and done, and that’s only if he can keep his average halfway decent.
So, I ask you. Would a DH-only home run hitting 3-true outcome guy like Schwarber be a Hall of Famer if he gets to 500 homers? I’ve floated this question to several baseball fans and they’ve hesitated and then said no. Well, what about 550? Would that do it? How about 600 (a plateau only reached by 9 sluggers)?
There’s other guys in the same boat to a certain extent: Giancarlo Stanton is likely gets to 500 despite missing most of 2026. Manny Machado likely will as well. I’ve talked in the past about Bryce Harper; he’s likely to get to 500 even with all his injuries. Matt Olson has an outside shot. How about Pete Alonso? He has 279 in the midst of his age 31 season and we know he can blast them, now that he’s in Baltimore in a hitter’s park. Aaron Judge just had another injury plagued season; he finishes his age 34 season with 386 homers, almost the same career number as Schwarber, but with significantly more power and the recent 60-homer capability.
This won’t be the first time we look at a guy who nears 500 and say, “geeze, is that really a Hall of Famer?” And i’m guessing it won’t be the last.