Nationals Arm Race

Well, here’s one of those posts that may draw a pretty angry response.

First, some facts driving this decision:

As of this writing, on 7/25/26, the Nats sit 52-52, are 3 games out of the last wild-card spot to the team they just lost to last night at home, and are staring up in the standings at another 3 teams (Miami, St. Louis, and Pittsburgh) in between us and the final wild-card spot.

We are some how 52-52 because of a historically good offense for us (2nd or 3rd best in the league based on wRC+ and fWAR), and are doing it in spite of a ridiculously bad pitching staff (28th or 29th in the league based on overall ERA or fWAR). Our relievers have a combined -2.4 fWAR for the season and have blown nearly as many saves as they have actual saves. We really only have two reliable starters and our #3 starter in a series would probably be either Alvarez or an opener in front of a guy who has an ERA in the 5s.

The trade deadline is Monday August 3rd at 6pm EST.

Between now and then, here’s our schedule:

• 2 more games against Arizona at home (55-49)
• 3 games at home vs Toronto (47-57)
• 4 on the road at Atlanta (61-42)

That would take us to Monday, where we start an away series against Philadelphia on the deadline day itself (56-48).

The last wild card spot would play a 3-game away series against the worst of the three divisional winners; guess who that is right now? Why, yes, it is Atlanta.

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So, the decision this team faces is this. Do we:

1. Go all-in on chasing the last wild card spot, which is no guarantee and would buy us a 3-game away series at Atlanta, a team that’s nearly 20 games over .500 right now and is on pace for 96 wins?
2. Stick with “the plan” from before the season and trade who we can to continue to build prospect capital for the future?

I think you can tell what my thought process is, from the way I phrased those options.

I’m not convinced that .500 team doing it on smoke and mirrors and an entire bullpen of waiver clams and MLFAs is going to be able to keep it together all the way to the end of the season, and if we skip out on the opportunity to cash in on, specifically, Foster Griffin just to end up as an 81-81 team at the end of the season, missing out on the Wild Card spot by 2-3 games, then we’ve blown a massive opportunity to acquire pieces that may actually help us in 2027.

I think Luis Garcia should be flipped; the return will never be higher.

Foster Griffin isn’t going to extend with us; not after toiling in Japan for years to get this one shot. He’s going to hit FA t his winter and he’s going to take his one shot at a 5-year contract. He’s not going to take a “home town discount” for the Nats just because we gave him a shot. You trade him, and we can re-engage with him and resign him in the off-season for sure, but if we let him go for nothing, we get nothing (even if we give him a QO).

Abrams is a bit more difficult to swallow, b/c he’s a starting all star for a team that hasn’t had one since the teens. But, the truth is, he’s an abhorrent SS defensively who needs to move off the position and it could get ugly between player and team when that reality finally hits, and I suspect it shouldn’t be our problem. King’s progression in teh minors as a ready made replacement hit a injury snag, which has really stopped the real conversation of trading him/replacing him like-for-like tomorrow, but it still has to be out there as a conversation piece.

So there it is. I’m seeing conversations from what sound like casual fans who are getting a little excited who are saying drastic things like, “if they trade him i’m done.” Well … that’s not the way you build for the next decade.

We’ll see; maybe they get swept this weekend and the decision is made.