Well, here’s one of those posts that may draw a pretty angry response.
First, some facts driving this decision:
As of this writing, on 7/25/26, the Nats sit 52-52, are 3 games out of the last wild-card spot to the team they just lost to last night at home, and are staring up in the standings at another 3 teams (Miami, St. Louis, and Pittsburgh) in between us and the final wild-card spot.
We are some how 52-52 because of a historically good offense for us (2nd or 3rd best in the league based on wRC+ and fWAR), and are doing it in spite of a ridiculously bad pitching staff (28th or 29th in the league based on overall ERA or fWAR). Our relievers have a combined -2.4 fWAR for the season and have blown nearly as many saves as they have actual saves. We really only have two reliable starters and our #3 starter in a series would probably be either Alvarez or an opener in front of a guy who has an ERA in the 5s.
The trade deadline is Monday August 3rd at 6pm EST.
Between now and then, here’s our schedule:
- 2 more games against Arizona at home (55-49)
- 3 games at home vs Toronto (47-57)
- 4 on the road at Atlanta (61-42)
That would take us to Monday, where we start an away series against Philadelphia on the deadline day itself (56-48).
The last wild card spot would play a 3-game away series against the worst of the three divisional winners; guess who that is right now? Why, yes, it is Atlanta.
So, the decision this team faces is this. Do we:
- Go all-in on chasing the last wild card spot, which is no guarantee and would buy us a 3-game away series at Atlanta, a team that’s nearly 20 games over .500 right now and is on pace for 96 wins?
- Stick with “the plan” from before the season and trade who we can to continue to build prospect capital for the future?
I think you can tell what my thought process is, from the way I phrased those options.
I’m not convinced that .500 team doing it on smoke and mirrors and an entire bullpen of waiver clams and MLFAs is going to be able to keep it together all the way to the end of the season, and if we skip out on the opportunity to cash in on, specifically, Foster Griffin just to end up as an 81-81 team at the end of the season, missing out on the Wild Card spot by 2-3 games, then we’ve blown a massive opportunity to acquire pieces that may actually help us in 2027.
I think Luis Garcia should be flipped; the return will never be higher. I don’t believe he’s suddenly a leading 1B power hitter in this league; he’s still got a .310 OBP and is only at 1B because his defense was so bad at 2B. He’s Arb-4 eligible next year, then a FA heading into 2027 and is easily replacable.
Foster Griffin isn’t going to extend with us; not after toiling in Japan for years to get this one shot. He’s going to hit FA t his winter and he’s going to take his one shot at a 5-year contract. He’s not going to take a “home town discount” for the Nats just because we gave him a shot. You trade him, and we can re-engage with him and resign him in the off-season for sure, but if we let him go for nothing, we get nothing (even if we give him a QO).
Abrams is a bit more difficult to swallow, b/c he’s a starting all star for a team that hasn’t had one since the teens. But, the truth is, he’s an abhorrent SS defensively who needs to move off the position and it could get ugly between player and team when that reality finally hits, and I suspect it shouldn’t be our problem. King’s progression in the minors as a ready made replacement hit a injury snag, which has really stopped the real conversation of trading him/replacing him like-for-like tomorrow, but it still has to be out there as a conversation piece. Eventually the job should be Willits’ and when THAT time comes what really should happen is King moves from SS to 3B (if House never recovers) or to 2B (which he can do sitting on his head).
I’m assuming at this point every other expiring FA (Williams, Mikolas, Littell’s 2027 FA contract) won’t fetch anything, so we’re stuck with them.
So there it is. I’m seeing conversations from what sound like casual fans who are getting a little excited who are saying drastic things like, “if they trade him i’m done.” Well … that’s not the way you build for the next decade.
We’ll see; maybe they get swept this weekend and the decision is made.
I hate “rooting” for losses, but at this point that seems what it will take to ensure this team doesn’t do something dumb and think we should keep everyone for a run at a useless wild card spot.
buying, selling or extending at the MLB trade deadline should come down to one central question: does the deal make the organization better in the long term? if the answer is yes, make the deal.
recent news/rumors that Griffin extension talks did not get very far.
FredMD
25 Jul 26 at 1:29 pm
I completely agree: sell. I also agree that Garcia and Griffin should be sold, especially Griffin. I disagree on Abrams. The Nationals should be a genuinely respectable team in 2027, and a strong contender in 2028. Abrams will be reasonably priced those years, so we can save extension money on Wood and pitching. Also, he gets a QO at the end.
Bad shortstop, you say? Indeed. But the only reason he’s playing shortstop is because he is trade bait. If the Nationals commit to keeping him, they can have him swap positions with Nuñez. (Nuñez’s bat is good enough for shortstop, given his extraordinary defense.) By 2029, when Abrams leaves for free agency, at least one of our many promising minor league middle infielders should be ready.
Ziggy
25 Jul 26 at 1:38 pm
I have a few objections.
First of all, going “all in” would look something like trading Willits for Mason Miller and Susana and King for Skubal. I don’t think any of us want them to do that and I think it’s completely impossible that the FO would do that. That’s just not one of the options.
Second, I’m not sure either Griffin or LG is going to get offers commensurate with their value for the Nats. Griffin has 4 months of ML success and strikes out less than 1 per inning. Like it or not, team pay more for FIP than ERA. And LG has been hitting great, but he’s still an average at best 1B who had a below average bat as recently as last year (and mostly a platoon bat even during his hot streak). The other teams also know that this is his high water mark, and I’m sure the offers are going to take that account. Combined I think we’d get 3 or 4 guys that would fit into the 15th-20th range in our org. That’s significant value to forgo, but it’s not system changing.
I see three reasonable options and I would be fine with the team pursuing any of them.
1. Buy small and hold expiring assets. Buying small means picking up a couple of mediocre relievers for 4 or 5 guys outside the top 30.
2. Buy small and sell LG, Griffin, or both.
3. Sell LG, Griffin and maybe CJ.
The only plausible path that would bother me is the total sale, including Abrams, with the team getting mediocre value. Everything else would be completely fine.
SMS
25 Jul 26 at 6:55 pm
The return for Luis Garcia will be minimal due to teams viewing him as a platoon and also understanding the nationals wanting to capitalize on the height of his value. Whatever trade return will get for him won’t be better than him being the starting 1B for the 2027 Nats. Plus he’s a clubhouse leader. I highly doubt he gets traded, makes no sense.
CJ Abrams is the best offensive SS in baseball this year. If u view him as a 2B then he’s a 25 yo Ketel Marte at his offensive peak. The only teams that have enough prospects to trade for Abrams that the Nats want are the Red Sox, brewers, rays, and maybe the mariners if they give Sloan and Anderson. The brewers already had talks with Nats and it went nowhere because the price of Abrams was something they couldn’t stomach. CJ is under control thru 2028. Seaver king doesn’t have to be added to 40 man until after 27 season and there no reason to rush willits. Theres only a few trade scenarios were a team gives up its whole future to squire CJ for it to make sense for CJ not to be the starting SS for the 2027 Nats.
Griffin makes sense to trade. The Nats can most definitely re-sign him, but there might be other pitchers they’re more interested in come free agency. The FO understands prospects and won’t be trading griffin just to trade him. If a prospect return isn’t suitable, griffin can finish the season out for the Nats in their playoff push. No reason to trade him for AAAA prospects and lose the valuable experience that comes with a playoff push or potential playoff birth. Many teams view griffin as a regression candidate plus you have Ryan, Peralta,Ray, and probably Alcántara, and skuball available, it shrinks the suitors for griffin. If the trade makes sense griffin will be gone unless the Nats one or less games behind the WC on aug 3. This team at worst is a 82-80 team and a playoff push will help with experience for 2027.
Now littel,miles,tena,vivas,millas,weimer,and everybody else on an expiring deal or 0 options next yr can go for relief pitching and prospects(preferably pitching). The farm system is stacked and this FO drafts well. 2027 will be a contending year and and the best players need to be on the field.
D
25 Jul 26 at 10:31 pm
Well, Mead’s gone. I had him pegged as a 40% chance of moving; as I thought that a breakthrough bat with 4/5 years of control would be one they’d keep and grow; not flip. Based on reading the comments on the Athletic site (!!), then it seems sufficient Boston fans are annoyed at this such that we’ve got decent value – upside is a number 3 MLB starter, maybe. Flipping a 6th rounder through a DFA claim into that’s not a bad piece of work for Toboni.
Now, can we get Boston Smith and Bennet back, please? 😉
Griffin? If we can’t sign him to an extension (and I think we should do everything we can to try), then we trade him. We won’t get a huge amount. The flip side is that if we were apparently to make him a QO in the offseason, we’d get him (for 18/19m?) for another year.
Garcia? His value won’t ever be higher; we should try and get what we can for him now. Ortiz can come up and play 1B; and/or Morales once he’s fit again – we need to find out what both can do.
CJ? Unless we get our doors blown off by an offer in the next week; we should keep him, and see what the market looks like after the CBA/strike dust settles. He’s too good a piece now to lose unless he makes us better both now and in the future. And (personally) I think King isn’t a 2027 starter for us, maybe 2028….
Kirkie
26 Jul 26 at 3:21 am
Timely post, Todd! We just traded Mead for Early. I didn’t have Mead on my trade candidate list.
This is very much a sell-to-buy kind of move, which doesn’t mortgage the present for the future. Mead and Early have similar control, and the relative value of Early to Mikolas/Littell vs Mead to House/King/Morales is greater to the Nats.
With that said, it’s pretty humorous that this deal can only happen because the Red Sox fleeced us earlier this year. Jake Bennett has basically usurped Early in their rotation, freeing him to be upgraded for a bat. Meanwhile, Perales had yet another underwhelming outing yesterday. Has he had a SINGLE dominant game yet this season? I can’t remember any, meanwhile Bennett might win AL ROY. Imagine if WE had Bennett posting those numbers…
House is an immediate easy replacement, but I haven’t seen anything from him in AAA to suggest he’s a different player to the one we saw in some 400+ plate appearances in the majors that got him demoted, and Tena and Vivas fill me with even less confidence.
It’s brutal that both King and Morales are currently hurt, Morales especially would be a super easy plug and play at 3B, and his play this season earned a chance, while King would force some awkward choices for Abrams defensively.
Still, it’s an astute move, getting help at a desperate position of need for Mead, a guy who wasn’t even in the org a few months ago. Though we didn’t get him for free as many claim. We traded him for Boston Smith, who as I am happy to continue pointing out is presently the 3rd best hitter in all of full season minor league baseball.
Will
26 Jul 26 at 3:23 am
gone: Bennett, Gore, Linan, Ferrer, Smith
here: Perales, Fien, Ortiz, Fitz-Gerald, Rosario, Cabrera, Vivas, Ford, Lyon, Early.
I left Mead out as he would be in both groups and ignored non-rostered deals but I’m happy with how they’re dealing.
FredMD
26 Jul 26 at 9:06 am
ok, just for $h!ts and giggles:
MLBTR lists the Snakes’ needs as follows: First base, outfield, designated hitter (with a preference for left-handed hitters); pitching
so we give ’em Griffin, Garcia Jr., Young and Lile for Waldschmidt.
if nothing else they both save on plane fare.
FredMD
26 Jul 26 at 11:59 am
You’re right that they’re not serious contenders. However, after years of being so bad, I’d really appreciate them being at least ok for this year.
I guess if someone gives you a lot for Griffin or Garcia or CJ, it’s ok to trade one of them, but I really don’t like the idea of a fire sale. There are a lot of assets in the pipeline; let’s not try to unload everyone.
keivn R
26 Jul 26 at 11:24 pm
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