Busy weekend, so I’m just commenting now on the unexpected trade the team made over the weekend. I posted an opinion piece saying we should start moving players despite our Wild Card position … but I wasn’t expecting THIS move:
- Nats send 3B/1B Curtis Mead to Boston
- Boston sends us LHP Starter Connell Early
Ok first off, I love this trade. This is the epitome of a team selling high on a player in Mead, selling from a position of strength, using that strength to acquire in an area of weakness, and demonstrating how to move players around well. That’s how you build winners, and is something we’ve talked about recently with all our corner OF depth in the minors. Trade those guys if they’re blocked, get something we need. Well, that’s what we just did.
The team acquired Curtis Mead at the end of spring training after the White Sox DFA’d him, flipping 2025 6th round Senior Sign Boston Smith to acquire him. Mead had been a disappointment to that point, with years of OPS+ figures in the 60-80 range. Chicago probably thought they were fleecing US in March.
Mead rewarded the team with a 133 OPS+ figure, hitting well enough to enable the team to send House down and feature in the middle of our order for much of this season. To say this Mead production has come out of nowhere is an understatement; he was literally DFA’d at the end of spring. We traded a guy who we gave a $50k draft bonus to in order to acquire him.
(Yes, I’m aware Smith is crushing the ball in AA for the White Sox; but he was still a 6th round throw-away draft pick; anything the White Sox get out of him is found gold as well. Also, if Smith was that big of a potential prospect coming out of college, not only would he have been drafted in 2024 as a junior, but he’d have been at a better school via the transfer portal. I think his production may be smoke and mirrors, and if he even turns into a backup MLB catcher I’ll be surprised).
Meanwhile, the return is something the Nats desperately need, and which we’ve desperately struggled to consistently develop for a decade: a reliable starting pitcher. Well, at least he looks reliable while healthy, giving the Red Sox 17 starts this year with a 3.44 ERA, a 1.2 whip and perhaps a little concerning 4.62 FIP. Nonetheless, his 119 ERA+ is exactly equal to what Cavalli has done for us this year to this point.
Early is a local kid: went to James River HS in Midlothian (which i’ve driven past 100 times in my time living here), then to UVA where he seems to have avoided the UVA mechanics issues that plague their grads. He was a 2023 5th rounder who was basically Boston’s 3rd starter this year. He’s in his first arb season, and thus is controlled through 2031.
In essence, we’ve now turned a 6th round senior sign into a #3 starter. Even saying that we’ve turned a March DFA acquisition into a #3 starter is big enough.
Worst case scenarios: Early is on the DL right now with “elbow soreness,” which probably greased the skids on this trade. Boston has gotten themselves back into the playoff chase, and they can’t “wait” for a starter to return from injury, so might as well flip him for an area of need. If Early is out for the rest of the season, or needs TJ? Well, that’d be a tough break. If Early reverts to his FIP and is more of a 5th starter than a 3rd starter? Still a good trade. If Mead continues to hit this way for the coming years and becomes a cornerstone of the Boston offense, we’ll have to hope that House lives up to his advance billing and replaces that offense.
I will miss watching Mead play and hope that he goes on to a long career. I would not be surprised.
I love this trade.
FredMD
27 Jul 26 at 8:32 am
I love this trade too. I was a believer in Mead continuing to be a productive bat, though I think there were (are? who cares?) legit concerns about his defense. House has hit well in AAA and his xwOBA numbers in the big leagues are good enough (better than Lile, Young, etc.) though not as good as Mead’s. I think there’s a decent chance House’s overall value for the rest of the season is above 90% of Mead’s, and there are good reasons to think House will outproduce Mead in future seasons.
Derek
27 Jul 26 at 11:13 am
I’ll miss rooting for Vegemighty, but I totally get this trade. Given that the team has Early’s medicals and that he’s already throwing off a mound and is apparently scheduled for a rehab start on 8/2, this could easily be a this year move as well as a future move. And House doesn’t have to be 2026 Mead for this to work out. From a Nats perspective, as long as the drop going from Mead to House is less than the benefit from Early replacing whoever their #5 starter is, that’s a 2026 win.
John C.
27 Jul 26 at 12:10 pm
I’m also pleased with this trade, but I think you’re underselling Mead by defining him as a DFA type player. Yes, he was DFA’d but 1) given the Nats traded an actual prospect (albeit not an elite one, though I would and have argued there’s a lot more to Boston Smith than his signing bonus), demonstrates he’s not your usual DFA candidate, and 2) he was himself a consensus top 100 prospect not that long before the Nats acquired him (MLB ranked him #55 in 2024, BA, BP and FG all had him in around 50 as well. Coincidentally, MLB ranked Early #56 overall this winter).
I am surprised, however, that we dealt Mead, who I thought was an integral part of the late 2020s Nats. Even if House sorted his bat and glove out, there was still a very easy path for Mead to get regular playing time, any or all of 2B, 1B and DH. I thought Mead was going to be our Danny Espinosa (or if things really fell into place: Ian Desmond) to bridge the gap until the real cavalry arrives around 2029ish. I think that there’s enough talent in much more expendable players like Griffin and Garcia that could have brought SP talent instead.
I really hope the Nats have done their homework on Early’s medicals. It seems they were caught unaware just how much Perales’ injuries had set him back.
Will
27 Jul 26 at 2:18 pm
@will .. definitely don’t mean to STILL define him as a DFA type. Just saying; he was DFA’d 3 months ago. That’s why i’m such a big fan of this. Perhaps i’m cynical of his 2026 numbers, less so than i am of everything Early has shown us.
I just think this is a great piece of business. On March 25th we had a 6th round senior sign who we had little expectations of being anything other than an org-guy catcher. Now on July 27th we have a #3 starter with 17 MLB starts this season.
Todd Boss
27 Jul 26 at 2:24 pm
Another interesting thing i’ve noticed: the last two roster moves the team has done (Lawrence and Krook) were both DFAs with no corresponding 40-man move. So suddenly we have 38/40 and 2 open spots.
Now, it could be those two spots were opened up for Williams and Irvin. But it’s also possible they’re opening up a spot or two for non-40man promotions. Ahem: Yohandy Morales? Maybe they’re preparing for a Luis Garcia trade and the sudden need for a 1B type.
Todd Boss
27 Jul 26 at 3:54 pm
Regarding Lawrence and Krook: neither has options, so they had to be waived / traded / released to move them out for hopefully viable pitchers on the 26 man. But yes, those slots will be useful for Irvin, Williams, or another move.
While both House and Crews have run wicked big platoon splits in the majors, I’m kind of loving having House be the fill in for Mead right now. With Abrams, Wood, Lile, and Garcia while he lasts, I’m loving having a couple of guys who can punish a manager looking to throw a lefty at this lineup. Mead’s hits both lefties and righties, but if I can’t have that, House will do in this lineup. Just have him hit 5th behind CJ and in front of Garcia.
Anonymous
27 Jul 26 at 5:08 pm
The Nats certainly played a dirty one on Lawrence, knowing he would never reject the outright and give up his $400k or so prorated salary. Leverage is what you make of it i goess. Krook may very well accept his position in life currently and accept the outright as well, with the thought that he can go to our AAA and have as good as or better of a callup shot as with anyone else, given how bad our bullpen is. But, we’ll see.
Todd Boss
27 Jul 26 at 5:34 pm
I don’t know on Krook, that was a total meltdown. getting the automatic ball right after being warned for the violation was unbelievable.
FredMD
27 Jul 26 at 5:42 pm
Sorry this is wildly off-topic, but with Nats’ draft news all wrapped up, there won’t likely be a more appropriate thread coming up, but links with many points that have come up here recently.
The Brewers’ 5th rounder, Aidan Knaak, just reneged on a slightly underslot deal (around $400k) with the Brewers, after Clemson came in with a NIL offer of $600k, where he’ll return for his senior year (https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/clemson-star-pitcher-aidan-knaak-213001328.html). It’s a fascinating development, and apparently not a one-off. Apparently the Braves also had to battle with LSU to sign Jensen Hirschkorn, their 3rd rounder, a HSer, with NIL money. Hirschkorn ended up getting $4m, a record for the 3rd round, even eclipsing Dickerson’s $3.8m record from outside the 1st round (which was also driven by competition from college). Though Knaak’s case is way more interesting, because it was always the case that HS picks had much stronger motive to opt to go to college, but having a COLLEGE junior get swayed is a BIG new development.
Basically, NIL money is making college a viable alternative to MLB, and it is driving UP costs. This is really interesting because for the past 5+ years, MLB owners have been trying to make the league’s development system MORE dependent on college baseball, by gutting short-season baseball. Basically, outsourcing development to college was seen as a cost-saving measure, but here we have college baseball inflating costs. I wonder if owners will finally see the absolute stupidity of their ways, both in the short-term that killing minor league baseball is not a short-term cost saving measure, and in the long-term killing minor league baseball will have massive repercussions in stunting player development while also shrinking the fanbase in the long term.
Small-market/cheap ownership teams are behind these short-sighted moves, so I hope that we can get more examples likes these (and quickly) which might jolt MLB into realizing the error of their ways, and go back on some insanely stupid decisions they have made regarding MILB. I don’t think the Appalachian League will ever return, but there are some super easy fixes to the current system (expand or push back the FCL calendar, make better use of the MLB Draft League).
Will
28 Jul 26 at 3:15 am
@Will .. you’re killing me; i’m writing about exactly this topic right now, in my annual “top 10 picks who didn’t sign” post.
Todd Boss
28 Jul 26 at 9:57 am
@Will – I love this. I really think MLB has been harming all the other kinds of professional baseball to serve the MLB product (makes sense, I guess) and I long to see someone else have any power in the market.
keivn R
28 Jul 26 at 12:09 pm
Ah! Sorry, I’ll refrain from all further commentary until then! 🙂
Will
28 Jul 26 at 2:37 pm
@Will; ok just posted. I ended up not really opinion a ton on it, b/c I wrote a lot about it in 2025’s version of this same post.
Todd Boss
28 Jul 26 at 3:23 pm
[…] we moved Curtis Mead, I wrote a bit about “should we trade assets” at the trade deadline. The decision […]
Nats sell high on Garcia as Team gets swept in Atlanta at Nationals Arm Race
3 Aug 26 at 9:04 am