It’s that time of year. Its “Rule-5 time!” November 17th 2026 is the official “Deadline to File Reserve Lists” on the off-season calendar, which is a fancy way of saying the deadline to add certain minor leaguers to the active 40-man roster to protect them from the theoretical Rule-5 draft, which is scheduled to occur in a few weeks at the December annual meetings … which most of us now think will be cancelled in the wake of the anticipated 12/1/26 CBA end/subsequent owner lockout.
Nonetheless, we do this post every year, and it’s now perhaps our longest running post topic. I have links going back to 2010 at this point, and after the Rule-5 actual draft (again, if it happens) I write another post to review what I predicted versus what the team did.
As a reminder, Rule 5 eligibility is as follows for any player not on a 40-man roster:
- Signed at 18-years-old or younger, has been in the organization for five seasons post draft/signing
- Signed at 19-years-old or older, has been in the organization for four seasons post draft/signing (this is a key item this year w/r/t one specific player who appears a “year early”)
So, generally speaking this translates to for 2026:
- College players drafted/signed in 2023 or before
- High Schoolers drafted in 2022 or before
- IFAs signed in 2022 or before unless they were already 18 at signing, then 2023 or before.
I say “generally speaking” because there are some IFA/Prep kids who get signed later in the year, or who might have turned 19 by the time they sign and turn Rule-5 one year earlier than we thought. This is the case this year with Travis Sykora, who we’ll talk about in a moment.
Last year heading into the Rule5 analysis, the Nats had a ton of 40-man room, so it wasn’t too big of a deal to add in a few prospects. This year? We’ve already whacked a slew of players just to get the room we needed to return the 60-day DL guys, and we’re going to have to make a bunch more cuts before the slew of recommended additions can be added. It’s going to be carnage at the tail end of the 40-man over the next few days.
Important Links for Rule-5 consideration:
- Nats Draft Tracker looking at the 2023 class and older
- Nats IFA Tracker; looking at the 2022 class and older
- Nats Big Board: you can search for “23D” or “22IFA” to quickly find the players in that class
- Roster Resource: the Options/R5 column has a red “R5” for all Rule-5 candidates; I use this to cross-reference my work to make sure we’re both in sync, though they sometimes have errors (and sometimes I have errors)
- 2026 MLFA List from Baseball America: 25 MLFAs for us this year
- 2026 Minor league Transactions, which shows the glut of transactions made on 11/2/26 and which I reviewed in depth in this space on 11/5/26.
- 2026 AFL Salt River Roster, since we usually send a couple R5 candidates there. This year the R5 guys were Susana, Mota, and Dean.
Here we go. There’s several categories of players to consider; we’ll go one by one.
I’m going to cover these players from high-to-low where they finished 2026 in terms of our Minor League system.
Group 1: Newly Eligible 2023 draft College Players this year (plus Sykora)
There’s already four players from this draft class on the MLB roster (Crews, Morales, Pinckney, Simpson) who would have been on this list otherwise.
- Phillip Glasser (AAA): our 2025 minor league hitter of the year took a step back in 2026, both in terms of his slash line and his playing time, getting squeezed out of a crowded Rochester outfield that included at various points Pinckney, Franklin, Hassell, Crews, Pineda, Weimer, and Peterson. Despite being in AAA and getting 4-A looks, he’s not pushing for a promotion and I don’t think I’d protect him. I do hope that, now that the OF logjam is cleared in AAA, that he can turn his bat back around and start pushing for a bench spot in the majors in 2027.
- Alejandro Rosario (AA): What the heck do you do with this guy? 2023 1st rounder, huge arm, dominates 2 levels in 2024, gets hurt, misses two full seasons. Now he’s rule-5 eligible with 88 career innings and there’s shops out there ranking him 6th in the system. Do you protect him? I think we have to. Otherwise, if he’s healthy he comes into spring training with K/9 numbers that are at least 8th guy out of a MLB bullpen capable. But he’s a starter with this stuff; if he turns into anything close to Susana/Sykora, the late 2027 rotation could be scary.
- Sam Brown (AA): trade acquisition in 2025, he’s a 1B/LF type who isn’t hitting for enough power to make it much further up the depth chart in that category, not when you have the likes of Petry on the same team going for 25 dongs last year. Not a protection candidate.
- Erik Swan (AA): his interminable rehab session in High-A this year (10 appearances!) then turned into a handful of mediocre AA appearances, and it’s safe to say the prospect shine is off of Swan. He was mostly in the teens to 20s upon his arrival in trade, now he’s in my mid 40s and that might be generous. Not a protection candidate. 2027 rebound candidate for sure, hoping he’s 100% healthy.
- Travis Sykora (AA): rule 5 eligible this year b/c he was so old upon getting drafted in 2023, he’s obviously going to be protected. Nothing really to discuss. Here’s hoping he’s 100% post TJ and he’s in the MLB rotation by July.
- Thomas Schultz (AA): 27yr old 4.50 ERA 8th/9th inning guy, for an organization that washed through more than 40 arms at the MLB level last year? If he had any real promise, he’d have gotten a chance already. Not a protection candidate.
- Elijah Nunez (High-A/AA): kind of a 4th outfielder even in the low-to-mid minors. Not a protection candidate.
- Liam Sullivan (High-A): LHP starter/swingman whose numbers got worse even after moving to Wilmington. Decent K/9 rates so I could see him moving to the bullpen at some point, being a lefty helps. Not a protection candidate at this point.
- Mikey Tepper (High-A): RHP starter who missed most of 2025 and a big chunk of 2026 with injury. Might improve his profile with a good 2027, but for now not a protection candidate or a risk to being drafted.
- Merrick Baldo (High-A): a run of the mill RHP reliever in High-A; not bad, not great. not a candidate.
- Austin Amaral (High-A): a curious career for Amaral, who was successful in AA in 2025 but spent most of his time in High-A in 2026. Good numbers, might turn into someone like a Jack Sinclair for us going forward, but for now he’s not someone you’d protect.
Summary: Sykora a lock. Rosario a strong candidate.
Group 1-A: 2023 NDFAs
We had 3 NDFAs from the 2023 draft class and all of them lasted until this season, but they all got released. Pimental was released in March 2026, Bollenbacher was released in Jan 2026, and Arguellas was released in May 2026.
Summary: no candidates in this section.
Group 2: Newly Eligible 2022 High School-age drafted players under consideration for protection
- Elijah Green (AA). 2026 slash line: .214/.315/.371 with 214 Ks in 426 ABs. He’s only still around b/c the team gave him such a massive signing bonus. Not a protection candidate.
- Brennar Cox (FCL): failed as a hitter, now a reliever but spent most of 2026 on the 60-day DL. Not a candidate.
Summary: no candidates in this section
Group 3: Newly Eligible 2022 signed IFAs under consideration for protection
- Jarlin Susana (AAA): as with Sykora, obviously is to be protected. I’m hoping both are in the MLB rotation in August.
- Kendeglys Virguez (AA): one of the players we just got in trade for Griffin. AA middle reliever, decent numbers, probably someone who could be good for us in the future but not a danger of getting plucked this year. Not a candidate.
- Yeremy Cabrera (High-A): one of the players we got back in the Gore trade. It has taken him a LONG time to get out of low-A, but he did this year in spectacular fashion. No so good once he was in Wilmington. There’s promise here, but not Rule-5 drafting danger this off-season.
- Jorgelys Mota (High-A): finally made it to High-A this year, the combo 3B/CF struggled there, and is now in the AFL. I don’t think he’s in the AFL to get one last pre-Rule5 look; this guy is an edge of the top 30 prospect at best. Nobody’s going to pluck him for a 26-man roster spot this year. Not a candidate.
- Christian Vaquero (Low-A): does $4.9M buy you a 40-man spot? He repeated Low-A for the fourth straight year and is in the same boat as Elijah Green: sticking around as a sunk cost bonus baby. Not a candidate.
- Rafael Ramirez Jr. (Low-A): the third of three players we got from Cleveland in the Lane Thomas deal, he showed some real promise this year with an 871 OPS figure in Low-A. He was in Wilmington for a few games but ended the season in Fredericksburg. He’s now a 2B/3B guy with the glut of promising SS prospects, but if he can post .800 OPS figures and play middle infield he’ll go far. For now, not a Rule5 candidate.
- Leodarlyn Colon (Low-A) finally got out of rookie ball after 4 years there. He’s a big middle reliever who walks too many guys. Not a candidate.
- Clarence Martina (FCL): missed most of season after pitching for Venezeula in the WBC. Not a candidate. Update: was released on 11/11/26 anyway.
Summary: Susana a lock. Nobody else really close to consideration. If someone takes Mota i’d be shocked.
Group 4: Rule-5 Eligible Drafted/Domestic hold-overs of note from prior years
- Cayden Wallace (AAA): after a 2025 season that turned him from a top10 prospect to a nobody, Wallace rebounded in a big way in 2026, moving to AAA and destroying the ball in both AA and AAA. He can play anywhere on the dirt and hit 29 homers this season. That’s a valuable player and he should be protected and push for a 26-man spot in 2027. Then again … is this production a mirage? Does the team value him? I’m not sure.
- Trey Lipscomb (AAA): He just had a phenomenal season in AAA: .861 OPS, 32 homers, starting SS but played 6 positions. What’s not to like here? He was previously on the 40-man and got outrighted off. If you don’t protect this guy, you have to think he’s getting picked. But, he also didn’t get added to the 40-man in September when he could have gotten a call-up. Interestingly … he still has options left, so if you picked him, would you just assume his MLB contract and then be able to option him? I dunno.
- Johnathon Thomas (AAA): he remains in the same position he was last year: a backup OF type who is well behind a dozen other names on the depth chart in this organization. Also, he only hit .215 this year. Not a candidate.
- Courtland Lawson (AAA): he went from being a bench bat in High-A last year to ending this year in AAA. Unfortunately he doesn’t hit enough to be protection material.
- Maxwell Romero (AAA): he barely hit in 2025. This year he bashed his way to AAA with both power and average while starting at Catcher over other more famous prospects. We only have three Catchers on the 40-man; this seems like a pretty obvious pick to protect all of a sudden.
- Brandon Boissiere (AA): continues to hit as a 1B/DH type, but he’s well behind others in the system with similar skills.
- TJ White (AA): Similar bat profile to Boissiere but has corner OF/DH capabilities. Still not a candidate.
- Kyle Luckham (AA): dumped out of the rotation and demoted to AA: not a candidate.
- Tyler Stuart (AA): solid prospect, out for all of 2026 with TJ, thus no chance he’s picked. If he had an injury-free 2026, he probably would have made it to AAA and we’d be protecting him.
- Luke Young (AA) a middle relief RHP in AA with mediocre numbers; that just screams “org arm.”
- Dylan Tebrake (AA) is a middle reliever who we got in last year’s minor league Rule-5 phase and who basically missed the entire season with injury.
- Noah Dean (AA) is a weird one, as we mentioned in the MLFA post. He was a MLFA signing this season, but he’s in the AFL representing us. He was also a 2022 Draftee, meaning he’s rule-5 eligible if still under contract. I think. Nonetheless, not a candidate to get protected.
- Brady Hill (High-A): like Tebrake, a 2025 Minor league rule 5 phase guy who ate innings at a decent performance in High-A all year. Not a candidate.
- Chance Huff (High-A); bonus-limited 8th rounder who was in AA last year, High-A this year, so he’s going the wrong way.
Summary: Wallace and Romero pretty likely. Lipscomb a maybe.
Group 4A: 2022 and older NDFAs,
- Caleb Farmer (AA): 3rd/bullpen catcher in AA. Not a candidate.
- Baron Stuart (High-A): another innings eater in High-A; this 22 NDFA was a 26MLFA who didn’t declare at 11/2, so I’m guessing he re-upped, but he’s also Rule-5 eligible. Doesn’t matter; nobody’s taking a middle reliever from A-ball.
Summary: no candidates here
Group 5: IFAs: 2021 and older (we didn’t really have a 2020 IFA class)
- Jhancarlos Lara (AA): big arm and big walk rate reliever who we got off waivers from Atlanta, then successfully outrighted to AA this season. Technically he’s Rule-5 eligible, but if nobody took him on waivers (when he could be stashed in the minors), nobody’s taking him in rule-5 (when he has to stick on the roster).
- Euri Montero (High-A): this 19IFA was technically a 25MLFA but remains active. 5.31 ERA in A-ball.
- Brian Polanco: (High-A): 5.28 ERA in the Wilmington bullpen; not a candidate.
- Cesar Rojas (Low-A): another 2025 minor league rule 5 guy who was a 21-ifa. He’s 24 and had an ERA in the 6s in Low-A; i’m surprised he’s still with the team.
Summary: no candidates here.
So, where does that leave us? Summarizing the Groups:
- Group 1 Protection Candidates: Sykora a lock. Rosario a strong candidate.
- Group 1a Protection Candidates: none
- Group 2 Protection Candidates: none
- Group 3 Protection Candidates: Susana a lock.
- Group 4 Protection Candidates: Wallace and Romero likely, Lipscomb maybe.
- Group 4a Protection Candidates: none
- Group 5 Protection Candidates: none
My Prediction: Team protects four: Sykora, Susana, Rosario, Romero
If it was Todd Boss the GM, i’d go five: Sykora, Susana, Wallace, Rosario, Romero
As of this writing, the 40-man is full, so whether they protect 4 or 5, they’re making some moves. They could still non-tender someone, and they can start cutting existing players. If you non-tender Irvin and Bird, then DFA Palmquist, Varland and maybe one other waiver claim reliever like Cruz or Waldron, boom you can add my five players.
I’ll update this post if the actual Rule-5 draft happens.
- Nats Actual Rule-5 protection results: