Nationals Arm Race

Here’s a look at Hagerstown’s pitching staff in 2010.

End of Season Rotation: Demny 21, Hicks 20, Bronson 23, Applebee 22, Ott 22
(rotation order: Demny, Hicks, Applebee, Ott, Bronson)
bullpen: Wort, Arnold, Vasquez, Weaver, Morrison, Erb, Graham, Garcia, McCatty
spot starts: Smoker 22 (demoted for Ott)
promotions: Holder, Rosenbaum,
up-and-back:
demotions: Gibson
dl: McGeary (TJ surgery, out for a while), Clegg
cut/retired: Willems

Hagerstown’s 2010 staff held three of our system’s biggest disappointments; Colton Willems, Jack McGeary and Josh Smoker.

One of the stories of the season was the abrupt retirement of Colton Willems, the latest reminder of the absolute train wreck our 2006 draft was (slight tangent; only 3 players from that draft have even made it onto our 40-man roster; Marrero, Carr and Kimball, and none of these are really expected to compete for 2011 mlb spots).  Willems was a supplemental #1 pick whose stuff as a starter seemed to plateau in the low-A league.  He wasn’t able to get guys out in high-A in 2009, and was converting to be a reliever for the 2010 season when he retired.  His 2010 numbers were bad, but he probably should have given it more time.

Josh Smoker’s status as a flame out prospect is nearly as bad as Willems.  He was a 2007 supplemental #1 pick has yet to show he can get guys out above the rookie league, and while he was slowed by an arm injury in 2009 his performance in 2010 (3-10 with a 6.50 era in low-A) may have buried his career in baseball.  2011 Outlook: fully converted to a reliever in Hagerstown, where he has to show he can get guys out or he will be released.

Another story of the season for the Nats franchise in general was the arm injury suffered by Jack McGeary.  McGeary was having a decent start in low-A before blowing out his elbow and getting Tommy John surgery.  McGeary was considered a drafting coup of the 2007 draft, signing for 1.8M as a 6th rounder with 1st round talent.  But through parts of four pro seasons he’s never really shown the talent to match his pedigree and even post TJ surgery I doubt he will ever pan out.  I can see the Nats hanging on to him until he recovers and giving him another shot based on prior investment and his age, but his days seem numbered.

Hagerstown’s two elder statesmen (Holder and Rosenbaum) both moved up to high-A mid season, leaving a relatively young staff.  Lets talk about each guy:

• Mitchell Clegg: Despite not being in the rotation at the end, Clegg was clearly the best of what was left of Hagerstown’s mediocre rotation.  He was 9-3, 3.48 era, 1.26 whip before a premature end to his season.  2011 Outlook: I think he starts in Hagerstown again, with the idea of a quick jump up to high-A if the likes of Bronson or Applebee falters.
• Paul Demny: Pitched a full season in Low-A, 27 starts, compiling mediocre numbers (6-10, 4.23 era, 1.35 whip, 106/47 k/bb in 129 ip).  He improved upon his 2009 season in Hagerstown though, but probably not enough to merit a promotion to high-A.  2011 Outlook: he may have peaked in terms of talent, but he should start in Hagerstown once again.  If he pitches well, a quick trip to Potomac.  If not, he may find himself moved to mop up duty for the rest of his days.
• Graham Hicks: put up mediocre numbers as a 20-yr old in low-A for the first time (1-6, 5.27 era) but he’s a lefty with a live arm (58 ks in 66 ip).  2011 outlook: we traded Hicks along with Morris and Burgess for Gorzelanny this off season.  I suspect he’ll start in Chicago’s low-A franchise.
• Evan Bronson: he put up pretty weak numbers (4-2, 5.40 era and less than 4.5 K’s/9) after faring better in high-A.  I don’t quite understand his demotion based on his performance in high-A, and perhaps that factored into his bad low-A performance.  He was pretty dominant as a bullpen guy in short-A in 2009; perhaps he returns to that role eventually.  2011 outlook: he’s a bit old for the level and seemed to be able to handle high-A last year, so I can see him starting there in 2011.
• Paul Applebee: 6-6, 4.29 era in a mix of starting and relief appearances in 2010.  He clearly is a starter though, and a lefty to boot, so I can see him continuing to get looks.  2011 outlook: I’m predicting he takes the 5th slot in Potomac, unless someone like Lehman or Holder gets pushed down to take that spot.  If so I can see him being a long man out of the bullpen or a spot starter.

A couple other guys had spot starts in 2010: Billy Ott had two mediocre starts but may be given a rotation spot in 2011.  Sammy Solis pitched 4 shutout innings before going off to the Arizona Fall season; he almost certainly starts in Low-A with the idea of moving up quickly and finishing the year in AA.

Hopefully Hagerstown sees better pitching in 2011 than it did in 2010.  At least you’ll get to see Bryce Harper blast a few balls to right-center before he starts his inexorable march towards the majors.

(slight server crash yesterday took down the site for the day.  I’ll post two a days tmrw and friday to clear the books of the “season in review” posts I have queued up).

Potomac, the high-A affiliate of the Washington Nationals won the 2010 Carolina League for the 2nd time in the past three years, which is a great indication of the quality of our lower-end minor leaguers.  We put together a rather “mature” high-A team though; most scouts believe that high-A squads should be in the 20-22 age range, and 24 year olds are considered “old” for the level.  Which makes sense; a 24yr old in his 2nd or 3rd professional season pitching against high school draftees 3-4 years younger should immediately have the advantage in terms of experience and capabilities.

That being said, lets take a look at the 2010 pitching staff in Potomac:

• 2010 Rotation end-of-season: Lehman 24, Holder 23, Frias 22, Alaniz 24, Barthaimer 26
• (rotation order: Holder, Lehman, Frias, Alaniz, JJones)
• bullpen: CMartinez, Dill, Phillibaum, Alaniz, McCoy, VanAllen (why?), Barthmaier, Testa
• spot starts: Alaniz 24, Barthmaier 26, JJones 28
• promotions: Kimball, Peacock, Alaniz (and back), Leatherman, Dials
• up-and-back:
• demotions: Garcia, Bronson
• dl: Jaime, Fabian, Beno, Rosenbaum 23 (would be #4), Morris 24 (would be #1)
• cut/retired: Atwood, Pecina, JEstrada

Brad Peacock was Potomac’s supposed “ace” and was promoted after 18 starts (I say supposed since his high-A line was 4-9, with a 4.44 era and 1.03 whip).  The starting rotation was rather decimated by injuries by the end of the season, with both AJ Morris and Danny Rosenbaum on the DL.  Bronson was demoted down to Hagerstown after putting up decent-to-mediocre numbers in high-A (4-7, 3.88 era, 1.31 whip).  Lets talk about the rest of the squad:

• Patrick Lehman (5-4, 4.84 era, 1.32 whip, 88/28 k/bb in 87ip).  Lehman enters his third professional season with the Nats after being a 13th round draft pick in 2009 out of GW.  He has clearly exceeded expectations for a pitcher coming out of such an unheralded school and It would be great to see him continue to move up.  2011 Prediction: I had initially thought he was a good candidate to move up to AA (based on his age and performance prior to high-A) but now I’m thinking he”ll start in Potomac again and try to improve on his era and whip numbers.  His K/9 is great though but may be a side effect of being slightly “old” for high-A.
• Trevor Holder (3-3, 4.09 era, 1.39 whip, 52/22 k/bb in 70 ip).  Holder’s selection in the 2009 draft caused howling from draft pundits; he was clearly an overdraft for the third round, was a college senior with little leverage and his draft bonus was less than half of his contemporaries.  And thus far in his pro career, he has done little to change people’s opinions on the matter.  His 2009 pro numbers were awful, and while he succeeded in Hagerstown he was clearly a man among boys.  2011 Prediction: as with Lehman, Holder is too old to “hold” on to a high-A rotation spot but probably does not merit a AA rotation spot.  I can see him being moved to the AA bullpen.  I don’t see him as anything more than an organizational guy at this point.
• Marcos Frias (7-5, 5.69 era, 1.53 whip, 55/39 k/bb in 91 ip).  Frias is one of the few international signings the Nats have that has moved beyond DSL/GCL status lately.  He was pretty good in Hagerstown in 2009 but his success did not translate to the better High-A classification.  He’s still young (22) but is entering his 5th pro season in the system and his time may be running out.  2011 Prediction: High-A rotation but needs to show some progress asap, else he risks getting moved to the bullpen or cut outright once we draft our 2011 crop of arms.
• Adrian Alaniz (8-4, 2.61 era, 1.11 whip, 101/26 k/bb in 107 ip).  Alaniz was an enigma pitcher in the system in 2010.  He had 24 High-A appearances but didn’t move into the starting rotation til injuries took out Morris and Rosembaum.  What’s odd about Alaniz is that he proved he could handle high-A pitching in 2008, going 9-0 with a 2.62 era before getting promoted that season.  His stuff has never really translated to AA though, and he was moved out of the rotation in 2009.  Now he’ll be 26 to begin the season and his future is murky.  He needs to show he can pitch at the AA level.  2011 Prediction: AA bullpen, where he must succeed or his time with the organization will be at an end.
• Jimmy Barthaimer (4-1, 3.62 era, 1.33 whip in 5 spot starts towards the end of the season).  Barthaimer was a minor league waiver claim, having gotten released by Pittsburgh’s Altoona franchise mid season.  He’s got major league time, so it isn’t surprising he would compete well against high-A guys.  2011 outlook: if he’s with the organization, he’ll probably be a AAA bullpen guy.

Other starters of note in Potomac for 2010:

• AJ Morris: a leader of the staff before suffering an injury, he was 5-3, 3.88 era on the year (including a number of relief starts).  Morris was a very promising 4th round draft pick after having a fantastic senior season at Kansas State, but was moved to the bullpen when his stuff didn’t seem to be translating to success as a starter.  2011 Outlook: Morris was traded to Chicago Cubs in the Gorzelanny deal.
• Danny Rosenbaum: another top notch starter for Potomac, going 3-2 with a 2.09 era before going down with injury.  So far Danny has more or less dominated GCL, low-A and high-A.  An injury derailed his 2010 season but so far he’s looking like a steal of a 22nd rounder.  The fact that he’s a lefty is even better.  2011 outlook: Rosenbaum is the opening day starter for Potomac but should quickly earn a promotion up to AA.  He’s a sleeper in the system.
• Juan Jaime: he was set to be the Ace of Potomac before a major arm injury cost him all of 2010.  He was lights out in short-A and low-A in 2009, and was put on our 40-man roster in Nov of 2009 to protect him.  However, the Nats tried to sneak him off the 40-man roster, only to see him claimed by Arizona.  2011 Outlook: good luck to him as he rebuilds his career in the Diamondback’s organization.
• Robinson Fabian: another Dominican prospect who we got in the Joe Biemel trade; he was looking decent in 8 starts before going down with injury.  2011 outlook: he’ll get another shot to show he can perform in High-A, but he’s starting to age out of prospect status (he just turned 25).

We’ll talk about Evan Bronson in the low-A post, even though he got a number of high-A starts.

Most scouts now believe that AA is the premier talent league in the minors.  AAA stores spare middle infielders and older players playing out the string while AA houses the rising talents, the up and comers that may never see the light of AAA.  Our own Jordan Zimmermann advanced straight from AA into the major league rotation.  So the AA rosters are important for the future development of the team.

Here’s what Harrisburg’s pitching staff looked like at the end of the 2010 season (age is as of 12/31/10):

• End of Season Rotation: Peacock 22, Milone 23, Thompson 23, Roark 24, Tatusko 25
• (rotation order: Thompson, Peacock, Milone, Tatusko, Roark, Peacock)
• bullpen: Kimball, Pena, RMartin, Spradlin, Dials
• spot starts:
• promotions: Storen, Strasburg, Chico, Mandel, Garate, Arneson, JJones, Carr, Bisensius
• up-and-back: Thompson, Lannan (demoted from mlb), Leatherman, Kown.
• demotions:
• dl: Meyers (would be #1), Novoa, Zinicola, CJames, JJones, Leatherman
• cut: OHernandez

Here’s the 2011 outlook for the starters in AA:

• Brad Meyers (1-0, 1.47 era, 0.98 whip, 35/7 k/bb in 30.2 innings) started out the season as the Ace of the squad and gave the team 6 strong starts before going down with injury.  He was similarly dominant at the end of 2009 for Harrisburg as well. 2010’s injury was unfortunate for Meyers in terms of career development; at 25 he’s now “old” for Harrisburg and he’s entering his 5th professional season.   I’d really like to see what he can do for this team.  2011 Prediction: starts in AA despite his proven success there in both 2009 and 2010, with an eye to quickly move up and take over for whatever AAA starters does not pan out.  With any luck he’ll earn a Sept 1 call up.
• Tom Milone (12-5, 2.85 era, 1.16 whip, 155/23 k/bb in 158 ip) had a fine season and should push for a move up to AAA.  He had nearly identical numbers in AA in 2010 as he did in Potomac the year before in terms of ERA and W/L record, but suddenly in AA he became a swing-and-miss strikeout guy.  He’s younger than Meyers and a lefty, yet has fantastic K/9 numbers and seems like a great candidate to move up in this organization.  2011 Prediction: a glut of pitchers above him and his young age seems set to start Milone in Harrisburg again, with a look to quickly move him up as with Meyers.  But his performance in AA seems to indicate he’s a rising talent, and his lefty arm doesn’t hurt.
• Aaron Thompson (4-13, 5.80 era, 1.59 whip, 95/53 k/bb in 136ip).  Thompson had an absolutely disastrous season.  He couldn’t strike guys out, he got blasted night in and night out, and it wasn’t a surprise when the Nats, facing a series of required 40-man roster moves, chose him as one of the DFA victims.  2011 Prediction: He was claimed by Pittsburgh off of waivers and is no longer in the organization. Even if he hadn’t been claimed by another team, in all likelihood he was out of the starter picture for the team.
• Tanner Roark (11-6, 3.77 era, 108/42 k/bb in 141 ip for two AA teams).  Roark pitched pretty well once he came over from Texas, but his Midland numbers were just mediocre.  He’s slightly old for the level but is only entering his 4th professional season.  I’d like to see more K/9 numbers out of him but he’s still a solid starter.  2011 Prediction: i’m predicting he moves up to AAA but he’s basically in the same boat as both Meyers and Milone; he’d be repeating a level and he may be ready to move up.  I’m predicting he moves up but will be on a short leash, targeted for replacement by either Meyers or Milone.
• Ryan Tatusko (12-3, 2.63 era, 94/53 in 136 ip for two AA teams).  Tatusko had markedly better numbers than his traded teammate.  But similarly to Roark he does not have lights out stuff.  2011 Prediction: based on his age and experience I think he gets moved up to AAA but will be in the same situation as Roark; he’ll have to perform or get moved to the bullpen.

I like both Meyers and Milone and think they’ve earned promotions.  We’ll have to see what happens in Viera.

The Chosen One ... in Center? Photo: Sports Illustrated

CBSsports.com’s Evan Brunell has an interesting story out there quoting our precocious #1 draft pick Bryce Harper about a possible position change coming.  Apparently the plan is to move the kid to Center Field and groom him there instead of at Right.  And it is music to my ears.

I initially thought that Jayson Werth would make way and move to Left when the kid was ready to come up.  But that really makes little sense for Werth and for the team.  Werth is a plus defender in right, has a good arm and can man that position for most of his 7 year contract.  You can “hide” poorer defensive players in left field (see Ramirez, Manny) since they don’t have to stop the first to third base runner.  Meanwhile, we clearly have an issue in Center field in terms of productivity and there are not a lot of upper-end defensive centerfielders in this league who can also hit.  Certainly there are very very few who can hit for power.  If Harper can play a serviceable center field that might be the best possible move for him.

Using rotoworld.com’s depth chart rankings, here’s the canonical list of starting centerfielders in the league right now, organized by their hitting prowness:

Light Hitting speedster types: Jacoby Ellisbury, Alex Rios, Austin Jackson, Lorenzo Cain, Peter Borjous, Denard Span, Coco Crisp, Julio Borbon, Rajai Davis, Dexter Fowler, Chris Coughlan (if he can transition to the position), Carlos Gomez, Nyger Morgan, Michael Bourn, Cameron Maybin, Andres Torres,

Slightly better than light hitting guys: Shane Victorino, Andrew McCutchen,

Medium Power (20 homer guys): Adam Jones, Curtis Granderson, Franklin Gutierrez, BJ Upton (maybe), Nate McLough (when he’s not in AAA), Chris Young, Marlon Byrd, Drew Stubbs, Colby Rasums (if LaRussa will play him).

Power hitters/30-30 guys: Grady Sizemore (if healthy), Carlos Beltran (when he was younger), Matt Kemp.

So, basically there’s ONE center fielder in the game who seems to be a safe bet to hit 30 homers on a regular basis.  More than half the starters in Center in baseball will be lucky to hit more than a handful of homers this year.

If Harper shows up in the league with 40 homer power, he could be a very special guy.

This is the first in a series of articles reviewing the 2010 Nationals minor league affiliate pitching staffs.  I’ll post one a day for each of our levels starting with AAA and moving downwards.

AAA baseball rosters are unique among the affiliate teams.  By and large AAA rosters are not filled with a team’s burgeoning drafted talents; instead, AAA rosters are often storage lockers for “spare parts” for the major league roster (backup catchers, utility infielders).  Even more so, the AAA roster (in terms of pitchers) usually contains the last few guys cut from the MLB roster and/or relievers who couldn’t make the grade in the majors.  Certainly Syracuse’s pitching staff fits this bill, and had a ton of player movement (up and down) during the season.  Lets talk about where we landed at the end of the season:

(age is as of 12/31/10)

• AAA Starters by Performance: Chico 27, Arneson 26, Kown 28, Martis 23, Mock 27
• (rotation order: Chico, Martis, Arneson, Mock, Kown)
• bullpen: Bergmann, Wilkie, Severino, Balester, Carr, Bisenius
• spot starts: Mandel (demoted from starter)
• promotions: Olsen, Slaten, Storen, JDMartin, Peralta
• 9/1 callups: Balester, Maya, Bisenius
• up-and-back: Bergmann, Chico (from AA), Stammen (and back), Atilano (and back), Severino, Balester
• demotions: Spradlin, Zinicola, CJames, Kown (and back), MacDougal (and back), JJones, Garate
• dl: English
• cut/released: MacDougal, Villone, ABrown

Starter Review

Shairon Martis was the only rotational guy to spend the entire season in AAA, having lost out on the 5-man battle for the big club in spring training.  Chico came up after a few AA starts and got one spot start in the majors but was never seriously considered for either the rotation out of 2010 spring.  Arneson came up after some impressive AA performances and slotted into the AAA rotation nicely.  Kown spent the season going up and down from AA to AAA and looked halfway decent in 11 starts for AAA.  Lastly Mock just returned from the DL and made a couple of starts for Syracuse late in the season, replacing the spot that was occupied by Zimmermann on rehab and Maya on “extended spring training.”

Among those who didn’t end the season in the rotation but who gave Syracuse a number of starts: Mandel was put into the bullpen to aid in his conversion to a reliever, as has been done this year already with the likes of Stammen, Balester and other organizational arms.  Syracuse had no less than 23 guys make starts, a fantastically high number.

2011 Outlook for the 5 starters at the end (in order of 2010 performance).  All #s listed are for this level only.

1. Matt Chico: 6-7, 3.73 era, 1.33 whip, 69/34 k/bb in 115 innings.  (he also made 5 similarly run of the mill starts in AA before getting moved up).  He’s still coming back from surgery technically, but a full season with mediocre minor league numbers combined with his advancing age (he’s 27 now) makes his prospects of ever contributing at the major league level slim.  He did feature nicely in his spot start this year and he did have a halfway decent 2007 season before getting hurt, but Baseball is a results oriented business and his aren’t cutting it.  2011 destination: Still in the AAA rotation but only because he’s a lefty.  He has already been removed from the 40-man roster.  He may lose out a rotation spot to one of the up and coming guys and languish as a middle reliever until cut loose as a minor league free agent.  His time as a prospect is probably over.
2. Erik Arneson: 6-8, 3.95 era, 1.29 whip, 70/31 k/bb in 107 innings.  Arneson also had 13 appearances in AA before getting moved up.  Arneson’s numbers in AAA were just about identical to Chico’s.  Arneson’s problem is that he’s not a overpowering guy; 70ks in 107 innings against weak AAA competition is not what the team is looking for.  He’s 26 this year and will turn 27 during spring training next year, putting him as already being “old” for the level.  He’s already survived one rule5 draft, which officially makes him an organizational player.  2011 destination: AAA rotation or moved to the bullpen.  Unfortunately for Arneson, he’s not really a prospect anymore, he’s not a candidate to compete for the 2011 MLB bullpen (right handed harder throwers with more MLB-ready stuff like Balester and Mock make more sense) and there’s starters in AA that need to move up.  His status may depend on the 2011 major league rotational battle, and whether or not guys like Stammen and Mock continue to be starters.
3. Andrew Kown: 2-4, 3.48 era, 1.34 whip, 41/16 k/bb in 62 innings thrown mostly in AAA starts (11 starts in 15 appearances).  Kown also had 15 starts in AA Harrisburg putting up similar ERA and k/9 numbers.  2011 destination: cut or released from the Nats organization.  Kown is right handed, turned 28 already and spent half the year in AA.  There’s just not going to be enough room on the AAA roster next year to keep a non-overpowering right hander around.  Plus he’s a minor league free agent and unlikely to be re-signed with a bunch of AA arms coming up.
4. Shairon Martis: 8-7, 4.09 era, 1.42 whip, 99/60 k/bb in 152 innings.  After making the 2009 rotation out of spring training, Martis apparently showed up at 2010’s spring training out of shape and he never really got considered for the rotation.  He labored in AAA all year and never really was in the mix for a call up.  2011 destination: he’s already been DFA’d from the roster, the team apparently deciding that they had seen enough of Shairon in his 5 years here.  It is possible he stays with the team and tries to earn his way back into the mix.
5. Garrett Mock: 1-1, 4.09 era, 1.27 whip in abbreviated AAA stint.  Mock was quickly demoted after a horrific MLB start (he pitched 3 1/3 innings, walked 5 guys and let another 4 get on base).  Soon after he was diagnosed with an odd neck injury (odd for baseball players), which cost him the season.  Luckily for the team it also saved them on Mock’s last option, so he will live on in the organization.  He has always had a live arm, and guys who throw mid 90s get chance after chance.  2011 outlook: Mock’s LAST chance to make the team as a reliever is probably 2011.  If he doesn’t stick this year, he’s out of options and will have to pass through waivers in 2012.

The closest Wang has ever come to pitching for our franchise. Photo Nats320/Jeff Saffelle

After asking myself the question, “Does player XYZ have any more options?” several times this year I decided to update Brian Oliver’s 2010 version of this post (available on his cherished yet idle website) for this year’s version of the Nats 40-man roster.

Here’s the key rules when it comes to Options (read here for a longer narrative form missive).

• If a player is on the 40-man but not on the 25-man (active) roster, then they have to be placed on “optional assignment” to the minors for the year and they “burn” an option year.
• If a player spends 20 days or less in the minors in a given year, then an option is not “burned.”
• A player only gets three such “option years” while under contract to a given team; if they have been on optional assignment 3 years and are attempted to be optioned to the minors a 4th time, they are subject to waivers.
• If a players has less than 5 years of professional service (at any level), the club can petition and usually obtain a forth optional year.  See this link at Baseball America for clarity on this (Thanks Sue Dienem).  The only way this really happens is if a guy gets added to the 40-man immediately after the draft and doesn’t languish in the minors, or if a player has a ton of injuries that eat up his minor league seasons.
• If a player spends the entire year on the DL, or if the only minor league time is on a rehab assignment, then an option year is NOT burned.
• If a player has MORE than 5 years of service, then according to the Basic Agreement that player can only be optionally assigned with his written approval.  In other words, the player can refuse such an assignment and immediately become a free agent.

And, before we go any further, here’s a great link defining how service time is calculated on mlbtraderumors.com.  This is important, because the credited years of service directly impacts whether or not a team can request a fourth option year.  The policy for both service time and Optional assignments are defined in the Collective Bargaining Agreement, Section XXI, though further details about Optional assignments are located in attachments, letters from attorneys and other sections of the CBA.

We’ll divide the 40-man roster candidates into several sections.  In all cases the service times listed are at the beginning of 2010, since Cot’s site has not  yet updated them for the 2010 season.  I didn’t bother to try to do the calculations, since they’re incredibly complex.  Years of service are listed in years.days, and a “year” of service is exactly 172 days.  So for example Pudge’s 18.109 means he has 18 full seasons plus an additional 109 days.

Section 1: Veterans who can refuse demotion based on Service Time.

Once a player has 5 or more years of Major League Service, the can refuse assignments to the minor leagues.  Therefore options are irrelevant on our older players; if they perform badly enough to be removed from the 25-man roster, odds are they’d demand to be released and would not accept an assignment to AAA.

The only real 25-man question mark for me is Todd Coffey.  I’m listing him here assuming that the full season in Milwaukee put him over the 5 year threshold for service.  This is notable though; it virtually guarantees him one of the 7 bullpen spots and means the likelihood of someone like Cole Kimball, Adam Carr, Colin Balester, or Craig Stammen making the roster is significantly lowered.

Section 2: Players who have Options available but are MLB entrenched

Strasburg is a special case; he’ll move immediately to the 60-day DL and probably stay there til september, at which point he’ll make some rehab starts and likely not ever get to use an optional assignment.  As for the rest,  theoretically any of these guys could be sent down mid-2011 without any say, much as we did with John Lannan mid last year.  However, they are all slated to be starters and to be important members of the 2011 team.  I could see Espinosa or Morgan hitting a rough patch at the plate and getting sent down to work on their swings, but the rest should be fixtures at the MLB level going forward.  Zimmerman may have graduated to the first section but his option status is pretty much irrelevant; he’s our marquee player and won’t be optioned to the minors.  He’s halfway to being a 10 and 5 guy (meaning he gets automatic no-trade status).

Section 3: Players who have Options Available and thus will Jeopardize their ability to make the 25-man roster out of spring.

First off, I believe Luis Atilano is going to be the next 40-man victim, but even if he was retained in favor of another he has little shot of making the team out of the spring, and will eventually be cut loose from the 40-man roster.  Maya‘s status will depend on his spring training but in all likelihood he’s starting the year in AAA (see the next section for some reasoning as to why).   Whoever loses the backup catcher role will burn the last of their remaining options, making a trade even more likely in the near future for one of Ramos or Flores.  Detwiler‘s well timed injury last year allowed him to pitch in the minors on an extended rehab assignment, then get called back up to the Majors without burning an option; that last option probably gets burned in 2010 as he seems 7th or 8th in line for 5 rotation spots.  Similarly to Detwiler, Garrett Mock‘s injury diagnosis so soon after being optioned (after blowing his first start) allowed the Nats to cancel the option, put him on the 60-day DL and save his services for one more year.

Lastly both Balester and Stammen have options left and both may end up using them this year; I see these two players competing for the long man/spot starter position with Coffey and Henry Rodriguez, which is bad news since Rodriguez is out of options (see next section).  2/11/11 update: Stammen may not have burned an option in 2010 by virtue of spending fewer than 20 days in the minors, per Sue Dinem.

Section 4: Players who have No Options available

A caveat before moving on; while some of these players have no options left, some of them have so little service time that the team may petition the league for a fourth option year.  Such petitions (if i’m reading the rules correctly) do not occur until the end of spring training and thus we do not know who may be subject to this rule.

Now, here’s where the roster decisions become rather interesting.  Lots of these players listed here are in open competitions for spots this spring and their lack of options may be telling.  Lets go section by section:

• Chein-Ming Wang:  He’s seemingly just a few days short of the 5 year requirement to refuse assignment, but the Nats wouldn’t possibly have given him a major league deal if they were out of options and essentially had to guarantee him a major league spot.  My guess is either the Nats are going to look to start him on the DL, claiming some post-rehab injury if he doesn’t make the starting rotation or peitition the league for a fourth option year.
• Tom Gorzelanny: he has no options left, is signed to a $2M contract and will be either the 5th starter or a long man out of the bullpen.  This fact pretty much guarantees that he makes the opening day roster and almost certainly guarantees that Maya, Wang and Detwiler (barring spring training injury or huge shock) are starting the year in the minors.
• Burnett, Morse, Bernadina, Clippard: All four of these guys are expected to make the roster rather easily, so no option issues should exist.  The one question mark could be Morse, who despite hitting the cover off the ball last year watched the Nats systematically bring in player after player to compete with him for his bench role in 2011.  We signed Ankiel, we traded for Corey Brown, and then invited four other outfielders to spring training.  My guess is that the Nats will keep 5 outfielders though and he’ll be safe.
• Slaten signed a relatively modest deal for $695K for the year, and really only faces competition from one guy for the loogy spot (Severino, who has never pitched in the majors before).  So the odds are high that he makes the team in that role.  He’s out of options, has been DFA’d in the past and passed through waivers with our team once before, but his performance last year would probably result in his being claimed this year.
• Alberto Gonzalez: He also settled pre-arbitration for $700k but hit badly last year, made noise about wanting to be a starter, and watched the Nats bring in Hairston, Cora, and Cintron to compete with him for the utility infielder.  If he doesn’t have a good spring, there is little value in keeping him on the 40-man roster.
• Henry Rodriguez: out of options, and someone we gave up Willingham to get, so he’s basically guaranteed a 25-man spot.  This (as noted above) essentially eliminates the possibility of someone like Kimball, Carr, or Stammen to make the team.

2/11/11 update: Sue Dinem points out that Bernadina did NOT burn an option in 2010, having only spent a few days in the minors.  This is important as it may lead to him to be sent down if we decide to keep one extra outfielder.

Section 5:rule 5 pickups that have no chance of making the team

The two remaining players on the 40-man right now not previously mentioned are our two rule5 pickups Elvin Ramirez and Brian Broderick.  I feel neither guy has any chance of making our 25-man roster, and both will be either returned or a trade negotiated.  Because both were never on a 40-man, they both have zero service time and all 3 options remaining at this point.

Coincidentally, here’s my prediction on the opening day 25-man roster, based on the above analysis:

• SP: LHernandez, Zimmermann, Lannan, Marquis, Gorzelanny
  RP: Burnett, Slaten, Clippard, Storen, Balester, HRodriguez, Coffey
  C: IRodriguez, Flores
  INF: Desmond, RZimmerman, AGonzalez, Espinosa, LaRoche, Hairston
  OF: Bernadina, Morgan, Morse, Werth, Ankiel

5 outfielders, Flores over Ramos and Gorzelanny over Maya and Detwiler.

Jesus Flores' general reaction to his injury troubles for the past two seasons. Photo Toni Sandys/Washington Post

MASN Nats beat writer Ben Goessling touched on this same issue back in December and came to the same conclusion that I have: The Washington Nationals may have some catching depth to spare when April 1st rolls around.  We have Ivan Rodriguez and Wilson Ramos as the incumbents (having DFA’d last year’s backup Wil Nieves, since signed by Milwaukee).  But we also have former starter Jesus Flores coming back from injury and seemingly healthy.   Plus our #1 hitting prospect not named Bryce Harper is Derek Norris, also a catcher.

At the end of the spring, I think we’re going to see Flores winning out the 2nd catcher position (by virtue of his age, his experience with the team, and the memory of his 130 OPS+ numbers he put up in 2009 before getting hurt).  But there’s little value in having one of the better Catching prospects in all of baseball languishing in Syracuse while we wait to see if Pudge or Flores suffers an injury.

I can see the Nats moving Ramos or Flores if the right deal comes about.  But, the Nats probably need an entire spring training of production out of both guys to prove to other teams that they are healthy and viable candidates.  Flores might be a tough sell to teams since he missed most of the last two seasons and seems brittle … but his numbers when he’s healthy are middle-of-the-order.  Meanwhile the entire league knows what Ramos is capable of and he may be a better trade candidate.

Also factoring in is the development of Derek Norris; at this point we’re all assuming he’s going to start in AA and be ready to take over one of the two MLB catcher spots when Pudge’s contract expires after this season.  If Norris takes a huge step back or suffers a season-ending injury, then nobody is going anywhere and the Nats will plan for Ramos/Flores platoon in 2012.

The Nats still have needs at the MLB level for 2011 though; you can argue that we really could improve at LF, CF and in the starting rotation.  Meanwhile, there are several teams out there going into 2011 with question marks at catcher.  Looking at these depth charts league wide, here’s some possible trade partners (barring injury to existing guys of course):

• LA Angels: Jeff Mathis and Hank Conger are their current catcher starters.  Who?  Conger is very young but neither hit the Mendoza line for 2010.  But the Angels so badly bungled this off season they may be reticent to make any more trades.
• LA Dodgers: Gave up on Russell Martin, so going into 2011 with journeyman Rod Barajas (career .239 hitter) and AJ Ellis (turns 30 in april and has a grand total of 141 major league plate appearances to his credit).  They have starter depth (Padilla looks to be odd man out and would improve our rotation).
• Boston: Jarrod Saltalamacchia is listed as the starter over the ancient Jason Varitek; neither guy can actually hit and both are defensive liabilities.  Boston is clearly making a playoff push and may want a top-end defensive guy behind the plate for the playoffs.
• Colorado: Chris Iannetta only hit .197 last year but has shown glimpses of power in the past.  Colorado let their 2010 starter (Soto) walk but they may have a hole at the Catcher position.
• Milwaukee: we could convince the Brewers to upgrade from up and comer Jonathan Lucroy for their 2011 playoff push.  But they’ve emptied their farm system and probably have little we would want in return.
• NY Yankees: are they really expecting Russell Martin to be the savior?  Or is there going to be a C/DH platoon with him and Posada (more likely the answer).
• NY Mets: catcher has been a thorn in this team ever since the Nats “stole” Flores from them in the rule5 draft in 2006.  Now they’re going into 2011 with the very young Josh Thole as the starter.  But the Mets are a total mess right now and probably don’t make any more moves until the Madoff lawsuits are settled.
• Kansas City, Pittsburgh, San Diego and Houston teams that *could* use catcher depth but which would never purchase it given their current rebuilding status (or cheapness as a franchise).

It should be interested to see if a trade surfaces early on into the season.  We’ll see.

Pettitte stares down another hitter. Photo noahhunt.org

Andy Pettitte‘s retirement (see my previous post for thoughts on its effect on the Yankees season) has lead to a series of inevitable posts about his Hall of Fame worthiness.  Si.com’s Joe Sheehan wrote this opinion piece after Pettitte’s retirement, saying that “Modern era of baseball demands Cooperstown find place for Pettitte.”  I won’t really go into his arguments except to say that he believed that Bert Blyleven was “wildly overqualified” for the hall, a position that I “wildly” disagree with and posted as much here about a month ago.  So its doubtful that I’d agree with his sentiments.

(Note; for the purposes of this article we will ignore the fact that Pettitte’s chances of getting voted into the hall in light of his PED usage admissions are somewhere between zero and nil anyway, and just think of his career in its merits).

So far, from what I’ve seen from the baseball columnists who have opined on the subject, there seems to be about a 50-50 split pro and con for the Hall.  Joe Lemire seems to agree with Pettitte’s own assertion that he is not Hall-worthy, Buster Olney thinks he’s a borderline candidate but th inks that he may be a Veteran’s committee inductee some day, and Jayson Stark thinks he’s not quite Hall worthy.

For me, Pettitte is NOT a Hall of Famer.  His career numbers show him to be a consistent hurler who was essentially a very good #3 pitcher on a number of very good Yankees teams.  He finishes his career with a 240-138 record, a career 3.88 era, 1.357 career whip and a 117 career ERA+.  His season-ending accomplishments include:

• 3rd place in his Rookie of the Year voting (losing out to Marty Cordova and Garrett Anderson)
• 5 years (out of 16) receiving Cy Young votes, though only one of those 5 years was actually meaningful in terms of the voting.  He finished 2nd to Pat Hentgen in the 1996 voting.
• 3 all star appearances.

His enduring legacy is his post season career, where he has more appearances and more wins than any other pitcher.  He pitched in the post season in 13 of his 16 professional seasons, had 42 starts altogether, and compiled a 19-10 record with a 3.83 era and 1.304 whip.  These numbers are more or less in line with his career numbers, indicating that he was a good pitcher but not great.

I would be a stingy hall voter.  For me the qualifications of a Hall of Fame pitcher include all the analysis of career achievements, but also some semantical arguments:

• Was the pitcher ever the best player on his team for a consistent period of time?  (no)
• Was the pitcher a guaranteed shut-down hurler who was worth the price of admission? (no)
• Was the pitcher regularly an all star and frequently STARTED the all star game? (no)
• Were you, as a fan of the opposing team, ever “scared” to hear that Pettitte was going against your team? (not really).

At the bottom of Pettitte’s B-R page, his Hall of Fame Monitor score puts him at 42 .. which is better than Jack Morris but below the 50 range that generally qualifies a player as a HoFamer (this is Bill James‘ concoction and the one overall HoF score that I agree with).  But also more telling is the list of pitchers that Pettitte is most like.  Top two: David Wells, Kevin Brown. .  Ironic that these guys were also middle-of-the-rotation Yankees hurlers who gained many wins by virtue of being along for the ride on one of the best teams ever constructed (the late 1990s Yankees teams).

Bottom line; Pettitte was a good teammate and by all accounts a nice guy who made an awful lot of money in his career and goes down as one of the most decorated Yankees ever.  But he’s not one of the BEST ever.

I cannot recall which National’s blogger used to do this (providing his/her own answers to the questions in Bill Ladson’s mailbag) but I thought i’d give it a shot.

Here’s the latest installment of his mailbag.  And here’s how i’d answer the questions he took.

Q: When does Ryan Zimmerman get a contract extension similar to the one Troy Tulowitzki received from the Rockies?

A: Probably never; odds are that he leaves our franchise for greener pastures (read, a competing team) where he immediately becomes a perennial MVP candidate and solidifies his Hall of Fame candidacy.  Because as it stands now, he’s winning only the title of “most under-rated player in the game.”  Go look at Mark Teixeira‘s stats and season-ending accomplishments just before and just after his New York signing.  Or ask Bert Blyleven why it took so long to get into the hall after playing for crummy teams his whole career.

Q: I think center fielder Nyjer Morgan played OK last year and deserves to be the leadoff hitter. I believe no one else on the current roster can hit at the top of the lineup. What do you think?

A: Morgan regressed both professionally and statistically last year, and Rizzo should have tried harder to find a replacement.  What’s probably going to happen is Morgan starting the season as a starter, he’ll hit .220 for a month and a half, and we’ll banish him to AAA before non-tendering him next off season.  I feel we should have tried harder to replace him in the off-season.

Q: If Bryce Harper has a great Spring Training, do you think the Nationals will keep him on the 25-man roster or send him to the Minors?

A: No way for one simple reason: “Super 2 status.”  Best case scenario has Harper blowing through the low-A and high-A leagues, then starting 2012 in AA before getting called up June 1st to delay his arbitration clock and play left field for the team (or perhaps moving Werth to left and starting in RF).

Q: Do you think Chien-Ming Wang could return to the form that made him one of the top pitchers with the Yankees? What is the latest on his physical condition?

A: Signs point to no after a lost 2010 season.  At least he’s less of a payroll burden this year when he misses the entire season.  By all accounts he’s supposedly at 100% but nobody knows what we’ll get until he starts throwing in Viera.  I could see him flashing promise in Viera then spending 3 months on the DL.

Q: In 2007, the Nationals came to camp with so many starting pitchers that they were drawing attention from the local media. This year, the Nationals have a similar situation as far as the number of starting pitchers. Can you tell the difference between the two years? Why should Nats fans be encouraged by this year’s class?

A: Definitely disagree here; unlike in 2007 there is almost no starter competition planned.  We have a presumptuous opening day roster of starters and only an injury or a huge spring upset will change that.  Lots of the Spring Training invite guys are going to be buried in AAA or were invited as professional courtesy for past years of service.  As far as encouragement for this year’s rotation; it is marginally better than the 5 guys who started 2010 and has some potential for improving with prospects that we value well.  It isn’t a league-leading rotation but it has some basis for growth towards 2012/2013.

Q: Do you think the Nationals need one more big-time bat or proven hitter to get them to .500 in 2011?

A: No, they need 3 more proven starters.  See Giants, San Francisco for building a winning team with a poor offense.

Q: What are the chances of the Nats making a run at Prince Fielder next offseason? It seems that one more big bat would make them a very good team.

A: Like the movie, the answer here is “Less than Zero.”  Rizzo wants UZR/150 plus-plus fielders across the board, and Fielder is absolutely NOT that.  Ladsen say’s we’re committed to LaRoche; I’d disagree with that sentiment too.  He is a 2 year stop-gap until either Chris Marrero matriculates and earns his spot or another option becomes available.

Pettitte is done ... leaving a massive hole in the Yanks rotation. Photo: noahhunt.org

One of the last major off-season issues to resolve prior to the beginning of spring training (the status of lefty Andy Pettitte) was resolved with the pitcher announcing his retirement earlier this week.

The retirement leaves the Yankees rotation in serious trouble.  Pettitte may have only given the 2010 team 21 starts but he went 11-3 in those starts and was the Yank’s 2nd best pitcher.  They failed to acquire any of the marquee free agents or trade targets in the off-season and are going into 2011 with this as a rotation: Sabathia, Burnett, Hughes, Nova, and Mitre.  The problem is that after Sabathia, every one of these guys has serious question marks;

• Hughes may have gone 18-8 but his accompanying numbers (4.19 era, 1.28 whip) only rated a 102 era+ for the season.  That’s essentially league average.  He benefited from some pretty amazing run support that probably cannot be sustained in the long term.  It was also his first year starting full time.  He has a great pedigree (1st round pick in 2004) and has pitched well.  But he may be a candidate for the Verducci effect of quickly increasing workload.  The Yanks have been burned in the past by young starters blowing out their arms (Wang).
• Burnett may be the latest in a long line of quality pitchers who just cannot perform in the spotlight.  He was relatively awful in 2010; 10-15, 5.26 era, 1.511 whip.  Most teams would put up with this in a 5th starter if the guy was a promising rookie … but Burnett is a highly paid supposed ace starter.  He’s never been a complete lights out starter, sports a career 110-100 record and should never have been given a $84M contract to begin with.
• Mitre is a 29-yr old journeyman pitcher with a career 13-29 record.  And he’s slated to be the Yankees #4 starter.
• Nova looks like he could be a ok back of the end starter prospect … but he owns a grand total of 3 career major league starts.  And he’s slated to be the #5 starter.

New York has signed a couple of MLB veterans in Freddie Garcia and Bartolo Colon to minor league deals, and they may provide insurance/competition for Mitre and Nova in the spring.  But there is a reason these guys couldn’t catch on with even the worst teams out there; they’re more likely to put up a 6.00 era than a 3.00 era.  Perhaps Garcia’s decent 2010 season may land him a rotation spot, but Colon hasn’t pitched in the majors in over a year and was awful then.

Now, the Yankees are still one of the best offensive teams in the league and can slug their way to a number of 8-6 wins … but in a division where Boston has restocked and looks dominant and Tampa has a rotation that New York only wishes it had, 3rd place looks like it is in the Yankees future.  Writer Jon Paul Morosi thinks that the Yankees won’t miss Pettitte, but i think he’s crazy.  His article seems to just assume that a Fausto Carmona trade is a done deal (despite the fact that the Yankees have swung and missed on every pitcher acquisition this off-season).  He also assumes that 3 prospects that nobody has heard of (Dellin Betances, Manny Banuelos or Andrew Brackman) will magically come to the rescue.  Banuelos and Betances each are grizzled minor league veterans with 3 AA starts to their credit, and Brackman isn’t that far ahead of them (he was 5-7 with a 3.01 era in 15 AA starts in 2010).  Yeah; not exactly Jeremy Hellickson-esque prospects waiting in the wings.

2/7/11 update: Seth Livingstone at USA Today wrote about this same topic and reviewed some other possible prospects in the Yankees system that may be better options than the three mentioned above.

There are definitely some arms to be had in the trade market.  Joe Blanton is probably available, the Braves may have an extra starter in Kenshin Kawakami if their up and coming prospect Mike Minor blows it out in the spring, the Dodgers have 6 starters for 5 slots and may give up Vicente Padilla once the season starts, and even the Washington Nationals may have an extra arm or two worth gambling on (Maya, Wang and Detwiler are all slated to start in the minors right now).

Without a move though, I say “Welcome to 3rd place” and only the 2nd time you’ve missed the playoffs since the wild card era.