Nationals Arm Race

We won't see Zimmermann again til spring training 2012. Photo AP/Manuel Balce Ceneta

Rotation #27 marks the final time we’ll see Jordan Zimmermann starting this year.  He’s scheduled to exceed the 160IP limit set for him by the team this time around.  We’ll see announcements presumably for his replacement later in this cycle.

Good

• John Lannan didn’t pitch badly on 8/25 (box/gamer), giving up 2 runs on 7 hits in 6 innings, but again his offense failed him and he took a loss.  His bullpen unraveled after he left, highlighted by Henry Rodriguez‘s 5 hit, 3 run debacle.
• Chein-Ming Wang‘s 6th outing was decent, giving up one earned run in 6 innings in the Cincinnati bandbox on 8/26 (box/gamer).  He was wild (4 walks) and he didn’t work down in the zone as much as he usually does (10 ground ball outs to 6 fly outs) but he put his team in a position to win with the “real” quality start.  Through six starts and 33 innings Wang has a respectable 3.82 era and a slightly mediocre 1.33 whip.   I figure he has about 6 more starts before season’s end to prove to the Nats (and the league) what he’s worth in the free agent market.

Bad

• Ross Detwiler may have gotten a quality start in his 8/27 loss against Cincinnati (box/gamer), but he still gave up 6 runs in 6 innings.  Rookie Chris Marrero‘s first major league start resulted in his booting two of the first three balls hit to him, and those errors turned into 3 unearned runs.  He was definitely around the plate all night (59 of 88 pitches for strikes through 6 innings) but too many of his pitches caught too much of the plate against a potent Cincy offense.  Still, he’s got a sub 3 ERA through 6 starts and his 5 relief appearances on the season so you can’t really criticize too much.

• Jordan Zimmermann‘s last start of 2011 wasn’t the heroic winning sendoff people were hoping for on 8/28 (box/gamer).  He gave up solo shots to each of Cincinnati’s big hitters, then walked in a run in the 5th to force his early exit.  Final line on the day: 4 1/3, 6 hits, a walk and a HBP, and 3 earned runs.

Mediocre/Inconclusive

• Livan Hernandez gave the team one more excuse to remove him from the rotation when the roster expand, giving up 4 runs in 7 innings and taking the loss against Arizona on 8/24 (box/gamer).  It wasn’t the worst outing he’s had, but it wasn’t a quality start.

Starter Trends (2nd half only)

Hernandez has struggled lately, Lannan follows up a couple of poor outings with a good one, Wang maintains his decent to good trend, Detwiler has a rough outing that I may be judging too harshly, and Zimmermann takes a step back in his last appearance of the year.

• Lhernandez:     bad,good,bad,good,bad,good,bad,soso
• Lannan              good,good,bad,soso,good,bad,bad,good
• Wang                  bad,bad,great,soso,soso,good
• Detwiler             soso,soso,good,good,bad
• Zimmermann: bad,bad,great,good,soso,good,good,bad->shutdown for season

Relievers of Note and other News

• Ryan Mattheus‘s shoulder strain probably will cost him the rest of the season.  He’s been our 3rd best reliever the 2nd half of the season and looks like he’s definitely going to be a part of the 2012 bullpen.  He’s being replaced on the roster by 2007 first rounder Chris Marrero, who finally gets a debut after years of toiling and improving in our minor league system.
• Stephen Strasburg did his 5th rehab start in Syracuse on 8/28 (gamer from Ben Goessling) and he was, well, dominant.  Five perfect innings, 7 ks while seemingly working solely on his 2-seam fastball.  He had 7 ground ball outs to just one flyball out and was “only” hitting 95-96 on the stadium gun.  I’m guessing that he was working on his 2-seamer and his off-speed stuff on the night.  Its hard to really analyze these starts in some respects; he blows through AAA hitters that mostly have MLB experience, yet he gets tagged in the bush leagues.  Its a recurring theme that the guys in the lower minors will “swing at anything” and often times the ball runs into their bats for hits, but this is the second time through the minors for Strasburg where he’s fared *far* better against AAA hitters than AA or A ball guys.  Odd.
• Get your tickets now: the team announced Strasburg’s return as being 9/6/11 against the Dodgers.
• Jordan Zimmermann’s  season ending stats: 8-11, 3.18 era, 1.147 whip.  124/31 k/bb in 161 1/3 innings.  Excellent 4.0 k/bb ratios, 0.7 homers/9 and a 120 ERA+.   Looking at more advanced pitching stats: his FIP was right on line with his ERA at 3.15, his xFIP a respectable 3.74 and his SIERA at 3.55.   All in all a great season and a promising one for Zimmermann’s future as Robin to Strasburg’s Batman.
• Saw a blip in the paper today about how Livan wants to stay a Washington National, and that he’s willing to become a long reliever understanding that he may be forced out of the rotation by the rise of young arms.  That’s good news for the team frankly; if he stays at or near his current salary ($1m base, $2m with incentives) then he’s a very good, very cheap insurance policy in case one of our younger arms has a meltdown.  Livan may be finishing a frustrating on-again/off-again season, but he does put in a number of quality starts when given the chance.
• The Nats pulled both Tom Milone and Brad Peacock from dominant AAA starts over the weekend, presumably for eventual callup to the majors.  Then on 8/30, Milone was announced as the Zimmermann replacement for the upcoming Saturday 9/3 game.  This will require a 40-man move, with alternatives mentioned in this space last week.

Here's a scary nightmare for Nats fans. Photo: Nats official photo day via deadspin.com

Bill Ladson did his seemingly monthly inbox on 8/29/11.  Here’s how i’d have answered the questions he took.

Q: What are your thoughts on Chien-Ming Wang possibly being a part of the rotation next year?

A: I’m not quite ready to say he’s worth considering for one of our 5 rotation spots next year.  We get 6 more starts to decide.  Remember though its not a given that he’ll even be back with us (a topic for an imminent blog post).  Ladson says if he continues to look good there’s a strong possibility he’ll be back.  We’ll see.

Q: Do you think that Prince Fielder is a good fit for the Nationals? I understand that Adam LaRoche has another year guaranteed, but Fielder’s bat is much needed in the middle of the lineup.

A: No, I don’t think Fielder is a good fit.  I think he’s a bad-body, poor defense first baseman who may age badly.  Plus, I don’t think this team is ready or willing to spend that kind of money again, so soon after getting burned on the Werth deal.  Ladson says the last thing they need is another first baseman.  Good point.

Q: Do you think the Nationals should try to re-acquire Alfonso Soriano?

A: Hahahah.  That had to be a joke question. Absolutely not; he’s vastly overpaid, is producing at a fraction of his salary, is a mediocre left fielder at best, and wasn’t exactly Mr. Winner in the clubhouse. The Cubs are stuck with him for the next several years unless they decided to just eat millions of dollars of his salary to pay him to go away.  Ladson: Absolutely not.

Q: I have heard there is a chance that Anthony Rendon would play third base once he gets to the big leagues and Ryan Zimmerman would move to first base. Is this true?

A: I have a hard time believing a player routinely mentioned in the discussion of the best defensive third baseman in the league would be moved by an unproven rookie, no matter what his pedigree or reputation may be.  This isn’t like Mike Bordick moving a secretly awful defensive shortstop in Cal Ripken; this is one of the two or three best positional defenders in the game.  Rendon moves, not Zimmerman.  Ladson says that Rendon will play 3B professionally and will move for Zim.  But, Zim’s contract runs out in 2013 and that’s a great point … where will the team be by then?

Q: Do you think Danny Espinosa can beat out Craig Kimbrel and Freddie Freeman to win the National League Rookie of the Year Award?

A: Not anymore; perhaps if he continued his upward average trend starting in July through the end of the year he could have challenged. But Kimbrel’s great ERA and save totals will get him the win. Atlanta may have the top 3 rookie of the year vote getters (including Beachy) and a leader in next year’s race in Tehran. That team is stacked and built for the future.  Ladson says : no, but that Espinosa should be in the hunt for a gold glove award.

Q: What is your take on Roger Bernadina? He has produced with consistency, especially in the leadoff position, but keeps getting sent down.

A: You think he’s “produced?”   Here’s his career stats; he’s got almost identical numbers in 2011 to his 2010 numbers, and with more than 800 career at bats spread across multiple seasons he’s an 82 OPS+ hitter.  Sorry; you need more production out of a leadoff hitter, or any major league hitter, than that.   He used his last option in 2011 and most likely will be DFA’d after spring training 2012.   Ladson says he’s a tease and thinks he’s no more than a 4th outfielder.

Q: Can you explain the Nats’ fascination with shortstop Ian Desmond, given his regression at the plate this year — lower average, no power?

A: Its all about potential with Desmond.  His UZR/150 is still in the negative range but the team thinks he’s a plus-plus defender.  To his credit, he’s vastly cut down on throwing errors this year.  He has absolutely regressed at the plate.  But the team loves his leadership capabilities.  My take; he’ll be given one more year at SS to become a competent hitter and then Espinosa will take over.  Ladson plays the arbitrary endpoints game and says Desmond has improved since the all-star break.  Yeah, when you’re dead last in the league in OPS you have no place to go but up.

My answers to the questions he took on 7/26/11. I forgot to hit “post” on this and the content has been sitting around for weeks.  As you can see it was a lot of trade deadline talk when everyone thought we were getting a CF.

Q: What happens when Jordan Zimmermann reaches his innings limit? Does he go on the disabled list or will he be kept on the roster?

A: Good question. I’d guess he will get an invented injury if he reaches his limit in mid August, so the team isn’t short handed in the bullpen. Ladson notes that if he lasts til 9/1, rosters expand and there won’t be a need to play DL games.

Q: Would you trade Ian Desmond for Michael Bourn?  Would you trade Desmond, Clippard AND a Prospect for him?

A: If the Astros would take Desmond for Bourn, yeah I probably would make that deal.  I know we’d be selling Desmond short, and he has a lot of leadership qualities, but he’s not hitting the ball (he has one of the 2-3 lowest OPS figures in the league for qualifying hitters).  Anything MORE for Bourn and I think the deal doesn’t make sense for the Nats.   Ladson totes the party line on Desmond…and states that we’re not talking to Houston about Bourn.

Q: Who do you think would be a better fit with the Nationals: Bourn or B.J. Upton?

A: I think both would be good “fits.”  I’d rather have Upton. Upton grew up in Virginia Beach and knows Zimmerman from youth baseball, so he’d already have a friend on the team.  Ladson also notes the local connections with Upton.

Q: What are the chances of the Nationals making a run at Prince Fielder in the upcoming offseason?

A: Pretty high.  Of all the major FAs coming up, he’s a decent risk.  He’s still young and you’d be buying his absolute best years (as opposed to most FA targets, who are already into their 30s and on the decline when they get paid). He may not be the best defensive first baseman but he’d be a big help to the offensively-challenged lineup.  Ladson doesn’t seem to think we’re in the market for Fielder.

Q: What is the future of Chris Marrero, seemingly blocked now by both LaRoche and Morse?

A: Great question.  I think he’s trade bait.  He doesn’t hit well enough to push a 25 homer/100-rbi capable guy like LaRoche off the bag, and Morse is suddenly becoming one of the hottest hitters in the league.  Ladson thinks he’s trade bait.

Q: Did the Nats consider whether Werth could handle the pressures of his contract before they gave it to him?

A: No, and show me a team that DOES do that kind of consideration.  Stars are stars because they perform, not because they’re capable of performing.  Ladson says ask him about Werth in 2 more years.  Great answer.

Will Brad Peacock continue his meteoric rise up the organization with a 9/1 callup? Photo bleacherreport.com

Davey Johnson has already called for them.  Jordan Zimmermann‘s innings limit necessitates one of them.  Livan‘s woes beg for one of them.  Who are they?  Starting Pitching prospects.  And when the calendar hits September 1st, the day MLB rosters can expand, we should be seeing a few of them make their way to the Nats roster.  We’re probably going to see guys already on the 40-man make appearances (Chris Marrero?  Corey Brown?), but who else?

But, the signings of Anthony Rendon and Matt Purke filled the two empty slots on the 40-man roster created by the trades of Jerry Hairston and Jason Marquis.  So if you believe reports that the Nats are calling up the likes of Steve Lombardozzi, Brad Peacock and Tom Milone (in addition to adding Stephen Strasburg back to the active roster for a September 6th or 7th re-debut), then we’ve got some 40-man moves to make.

Here’s my predictions on how the team will make room for 4 new 40-man players (remember, Strasburg is currently on the 60-day DL and does not count towards the 40 active players on the “40-man” roster).

• Move Adam LaRoche and Cole Kimball to the 60-day DL.  These are procedural moves that could have been done weeks ago, but the team hasn’t had the need.  Both are clearly done for the season and can easily be moved off.
• Move Doug Slaten to the 60-day dl.  We’ve heard very little news on Slaten since he was put on the DL, which means he’s probably not featuring in the team’s plans for 2011 and can be moved off the 40-man.  We may end up flat out releasing the guy too; he performed so badly this year in terms of WHIP and allowing inherited runners to score that the team certainly would go looking elsewhere for a loogy.  Update: he’s just starting to do rehab stints now; I’m guessing he’ll just be released upon finishing his rehab, as we did with Chad Gaudin.
• Re-call Adam Carr to the majors, then 60-day DL him.  He’s been out since June and this procedural move would mean that nobody needs to be released.  We can add all these 60-day DL guys back to the 40-man once all our free agents and non-tenders go through.

If there are other non 40-man guys to consider adding, I don’ t know who they may be at this point.  Brad Meyers may be reaching an innings limit (based on analysis of his usage in AAA).  There don’t seem to be any relievers in AAA (Mandel, Wilkie?) worth calling up.  We have 2 catchers active and a third (Pudge) getting ready presumably to come off the DL, so we’re set there.

Who would get dumped off the 40-man if we needed to make space?  The leading candidate would have to be the enigmatic Garrett Mock, who has put up startling bad numbers at various levels this year.  Atahualpa Severino is another candidate; having spent 2 full years on the 40-man with exactly one day in the majors.

Frankly, I did not think we could get Purke signed. Photo AP/Nati Harnik

Upon starting to read Nationals press releases post 8/15/11 signing deadline, I was ecstatic and surprised by what transpired last night.  We got the first five draft picks signed for a total of about $16.5M spent.

Anthony Rendon and Alex Meyer were never in doubt in my opinion; neither was going back to school to try to marginally improve on their draft standing.  (Nor was Kylin Turnbull, our 4th rounder, who got a $325k deal out of Juco).  Rendon got a major league deal (i.e., an immediate spot on the 40-man roster), which probably was to be expected given his stature and his agent Scott Boras.  My guess is that Boras is starting to press for 40-man spots for his marquee players more and more and fighting less and less for these massive bonuses knowing that the 40-man spot accelerates the time it takes for these prospects to reach free agency by 2-3 years or more.

Brian Godwin got a $3M deal, or $1M more than it took for Meyer to sign.  Clearly the Nats had to buy him out of another year in college, where he and his counsel thought he could become a top-10 talent.

Most surprising: the signing of Matt Purke.  When Purke announced he wasn’t going to pitch in the Cape Cod league, I figured right then he wasn’t going to sign.  Why would he take a 3rd round money or slightly higher (somewhere between $425k and $800k) as a bonus when he got offered $6M out of high school and knows that a dominant junior season would put him in the discussion for #1 overall in 2012’s draft (and the probable $7-8M deal it would guarantee, as Gerrit Cole just got from Pittsburgh).  What the public didn’t know came out in the press releases: Purke let the Nats do not only an in-depth physical but an MRI with the injected dye to highlight injuries within his shoulder.  Purke also did private throwing sessions for the team.   They guaranteed him a 40-man roster spot as well (also incredibly surprising), but as mentioned above probably traded bonus money for that spot.

The usage of 40-man spots as a negotiating tool leaves the Nats slightly roster hampered; we now have 7 spots (and one rule5 draftee) on the roster who have never appeared in a major league game and seem set to start 2012 in the minors (Purke, Severino, Carr, Marrero, Rendon, Harper and Corey Brown).

However, Nats fans can now salivate at the selection of upper-ceiling arms that the team will be able to select from in a few years.  We can add Purke and Meyer immediately to this list: Strasburg and Zimmermann (1st and 2nd rounders) seem set to be the 1-2 for this rotation for the next several years.  Sammy Solis (2nd rounder) has looked ok in Potomac in his first year.  Youngsters AJ Cole (4th) and Robbie Ray (12th) have both looked fantastic in low-A.   “Found money” starters Brad Meyers (5th), Tom Milone (10th) and Brad Peacock (a draft-and-follow 41st rounder) are all pitching at AAA with varying degrees of success but all well younger than their AAA counterparts.   Even 2007’s high-end arms not already mentioned (Ross Detwiler 1st, Josh Smoker 2nd and Jack McGeary in the 6th) are not out of the running and all may feature at least as bullpen arms in the future.

How about a 2014 rotation of Strasburg, Zimmermann, Purke, Peacock and some high-priced ace FA?  That sounds pretty good.

The Nat acquired Gomes ... why? Photo unknown via redlegsbaseball.blogspot.com

Yesterday, The Nationals acquired Jonny Gomes from the Cincinnati Reds for minor leaguers Bill Rhinehart, Christopher Manno and cash (i.e., the Reds are paying part of Gomes’ salary the rest of this year).

Why?

The teams needs, as far as I can tell:

• reliable leadoff hitter
• better centerfielder
• a more offensively productive shortstop
• An ace starting pitcher
• 2-3 better starting pitchers.
• incrementally better relievers, or relievers who don’t hit the backstop with fastballs.

No where in that list is there a need for “yet another backup outfielder” to go with the slew of them we already have.  Don’t get me wrong’ there is definitely some value in having Gomes on the bench as a right-handed pinch hitting option (since both Ankiel and Stairs are lefties).  And there’s some value in having Gomes platoon with his left-handed hitting doppleganger Laynce Nix.  But last place teams don’t generally spend time on such a small matter.  To make matters worse, quotes from Gomes clearly show he’s disappointed to be traded from the Reds to the Nats, and it may be interesting to see how his attitude plays out the rest of the year.

To me, this trade was solely about getting the supplemental first rounder that Gomes would net if he maintains his type-B FA status.  Rizzo said as much himself when asked about the trade.  And I’m ok with that.  The two prospects we gave up were marginal prospects in this team’s grand scheme; Rhinehart was a good-hitting first baseman, but is a 26yr old in AA and is blocked by the younger, more promising Chris Marrero.  Manno, while certainly a blogosphere favorite, was a 22-yr toiling and putting up dominant numbers in low-A, and his ceiling seemed to be as a matchup-left hander (loogy) at some point in the future.  I guess Rizzo thought a 2012 mid 30-s draft pick was worth those two prospects in the long run.

Last question; who makes way on the 25-man?  You have to think this is the end of the road for one Matt Stairs.

Will Sunday's start be Jason Marquis' last in a Nats uniform? Photo Drew Hallowell/Getty Images

I’m a realist.

The Nats are not going to catch the Braves for the NL Wild Card.  Given that situation, I believe the team needs to cash in on its expiring veterans and trade them.  Some of our vets should go before the 7/31 non-waiver deadline, others probably would pass through waivers (as Cristian Guzman did in 2010) and could be moved for low-level prospects closer to the end of the season.

That being said, as a follower of the minor league rotations and as a fan looking forward to the future of this team, I’d rather see our prospects and “what-ifs” now instead of following guys as they play out the string in August and September.  Here’s a list of moves I’d like to see and who should replace them.

1. Jason Marquis.  We trade him for whatever he can get and we shoudn’t get too hung up on his return value.  According to mlbtraderumor’s estimates of the current Elias rankings, Marquis isn’t even close to being a type-B free agent, thus he nets us no comp picks at the end of the season if/when he signs elsewhere.  We should trade Marquis and immediately make room in the rotation for one Chien-Ming Wang, who makes (presumably) his last rehab start today 7/24 and needs to immediately come up and join the 25-man roster.
2. Livan Hernandez.  Some say we keep the old veteran, and I can certainly see that argument.  However, his up-and-down season has frustrated many, and we’ve got a starter in Ross Detwiler who could/should immediately take his rotation spot.  Hernandez, according to the above Elias rankings, believe it or not is right on the cusp of type-B status, which could net a supplemental first rounder for whoever has him at the end of the season.  But that’s a risky proposition; odds are he’d accept arbitration and the guaranteed payday from the offering team, negating the possible comp pick.
3. Laynce Nix: the slugging left fielder has been a great find for this team, going from minor league signee to starting left fielder.  But, there isn’t going to be room for him in 2012, with LaRoche coming back and Morse likely moving back to left field.  We could keep the outfielder as a 4th, but a player like Rick Ankiel or Roger Bernadina makes more sense as a 4th outfielder since they can play all three OF positions and have decent speed on the basepaths.  We should trade him now while his value is high.  This is complicated lately by his achilles tendon injury, so the odds are that he’s staying put.  Another point against; if Nix goes, who replaces him on the roster?  We don’t really have a ready-made, deserving AAA outfielder that we could call up.  We could bring up Chris Marrero, put him at first and put Morse back in left, a move that doesn’t have any 40-man roster impact.
4. Todd Coffey: the middle relief righty has struggled lately but still has value for teams looking for bullpen support.  Flip him and bring up the deserving, long toiling and local product Josh Wilkie.
5. Ivan Rodriguez: the Giants continue to need catching depth, they love veterans and Pudge would have a likely playoff run with a trade.  We could continue with Jesus Flores in a backup role, now that it seems that the word has gotten out that his arm is shot and he’s no longer earning trade value playing full time in AAA.  Of course, as we speak Pudge is on the DL so any trade before the deadline is likely off.
6. Any one of the rest of our one-year FA backups: Cora, Hairston, Stairs, and Ankiel.  All four of these guys likely pass through waivers and would serve as excellent role players for teams on a playoff push.  Cora and Hairston could be replaced by Brian Bixler or Steve Lombardozzi easily enough, while Stairs or Ankiel, if moved along with Nix, would probably necessitate the return of a MLB-ready outfielder.

Who do I think we should NOT move, unless we get excellent value coming back?

1. Ian Desmond: his name keeps appearing in trade rumors, with conflicting reports.  Some say we’re “actively shopping” him, others say that he’s a “core piece” and won’t be moved.  We’d be selling low on Desmond, given his precipitous drop in offensive production this year.  However, if the team long term wants to move Espinosa to short and make room for the likes of Lombardozzi or (eventually perhaps) Anthony Rendon, then striking while the iron is hot and people are asking for Desmond makes sense.
2. Tyler Clippard: I posted on the topic of Clippard’s name appearing in trade rumors earlier this week.  My arguments are there in greater detail; we should only move him if we’re “wowed” by the return.
3. Drew Storen: can’t see how we’re even considering moving him; he’s under club control through 2015, is a poster child for excellent drafting and quick rise to the majors, and is quickly becoming an excellent closer.  He’s 25/28 in save opportunities as a 23-yr old this year; you don’t trade these guys, you build around them.

Anyone else not already mentioned is either untradeable (Werth, LaRoche), untouchable (Zimmermann, Zimmerman, Espinosa, Ramos), or somewhere in the realm of club-control guys (Bernadina, Lannan, Gorzelanny as examples) who aren’t worth as much to other teams as they are to us.

Lastly, here’s some player targets we’ve heard that the Nationals are interested in.

1. BJ Upton: Upton is enigmatic to say the least; his numbers put him at a barely greater than average mlb player, but he gets steals and hits for some power and plays a declining CF (don’t believe me?  Look at his uzr/150 ratings drop for 4 straight seasons here, culminating with a negative score for 2011 so far).  Is he the solution for our leadoff/center field spot?  Perhaps.  But I don’t want to give up the farm for a guy we’ll only control for one more year (he’s entering his 3rd arbitration year in 2012).
2. Michael Bourn: he’s a far lesser version of Upton; far less power but more speed, and 2011 is the first time he’s been above 100 OPS+ in his career.  We’d be buying high for sure.  Somehow he makes more than Upton in the same 2nd year arbitration situation.
3. Colby Rasmus: i’d love to get him, he’d be a monster in center field.  He’s young, he produced excellently in 2010, and seems to be perpetually in his manager’s doghouse.  The latest  rumors though have him going elsewhere, not to the Nats.  Plus, I’m not quite sure why the Cards would trade him in the first place; the guy’s making the MLB minimum and batting in the middle of their order.

Matt Stairs swings and misses at another fastball. Photo: Getty Images via zimbio.com

Lost in the shuffle of Friday’s offensive explosion in Baltimore was this line: Matt Stairs: 0-4, 2 strikeouts and 5 runners left on base hitting in the #5 hole.  The coup-de-grace for me was the inexplicable bases-loaded strikeout he had in the 4th, letting a perfect down-the-middle fastball pass right by him to end the inning.

That at-bat disgusted me.  It isn’t the first time we’ve seen Stairs let a pitch go by that he clearly was guessing otherwise on, and in the end of course the at bat didn’t matter, but its indicative of where he is now as a hitter.  On fastball counts, he’s guessing otherwise and letting pitches go by without even an offering in high-leverage situations.  But for me, if you have 2 strikes you’re not trying to hit home runs; you’re trying to put the ball in play.  It seems to me that his skills as a hitter have declined to the point where he’s depending more on guess work than his former hitting prowness to succeed at the plate.

Meanwhile, every other player in the lineup was mashing Baltimore pitching last night (well, except for Adam LaRoche, but that’s a different contract, a different defensive player, and a different story).  Our 7-8-9 hitters were 8-13 (eight hits out of the bottom three!).

I think its time to end the experiment.  For the season (as of 5/20) Stairs is 2 for 26 with no extra base hits.  He has a NEGATIVE OPS+, meaning that he’s hitting roughly 100% worse than an average major league player.  He has no defensive value and can’t pinch run when needed.  I think we need to bring up someone else from AAA.

Michael Aubrey didn’t have the worst numbers the last time he played in the majors (Baltimore in 2009), is also a lefty, can play first base if needed and (if you believe his profile’d height/weight of 6’0″ 190lbs) should be able to run the bases if needed.  We have a 40-man spot open with the DFA of Broderick and we could make this move immediately as a like-for-like replacement for Stairs.  If you didn’t want to add a guy to the roster, you could also just call up Chris Marrero, who doesn’t quite have Aubrey’s power but is hitting consistently in AAA and had 18 homers in AA last year.  Marrero could be a righty bat off the bench coupled with Ankiel’s lefty bat as a 4th outfielder/bat off the bench as well.

Either way, I think its time to make a change.

Commenter Mark L, in response to my statement that (paraphrased) the 2011 Nationals cannot afford to keep rule 5 picks on this team, pointed out that the team really has little chance of competing in 2011 and thus it is really the perfect time to be keeping and testing rule5 guys.

In theory I agree with this premise w.r.t. keeping rule 5 guys.  We’re not going to win the pennant in 2011.

I think in reality though the team has gone mostly backwards since arriving here in 2005 and cannot afford to ever seem as if they’re not trying to make progress.  I blame a lot of that on Bowden’s obsession with former Reds and tools-y players who became such a nightmare to integrate as a team that Acta had to be scuttled as a manager in favor of the more old-school Riggleman. The team lost the entirety of good will and excitement that came with a new stadium and the Lerners as owners had to be shocked at how quickly they destroyed their season ticket base (most observers believe they’ve lost more than half their season ticket holders just from 2009!). So the team is just not in a position to play for the future any more; they have to appear to be improving the team even marginally for the next few years to put themselves in a better position financially.

If the team was really playing for 2013 (as, say, the KC Royals clearly are), they’d never have even brought in the likes of Ankiel, Coffey, Hairston, basically every mid-career veteran and go completely with a lineup of prospects and these rule5 guys.   Arguably they wouldn’t have spent the money on Werth either.  What would the 25-man roster really look like without any FA signings?  Lets take a look:

• Catchers: Pudge, Ramos (remember, they *had* to get Pudge b/c of the state of their catcher depth pre 2010).  If you like, you can replace Pudge with someone like Flores or even Maldonado, since Norris is not ready for the majors in 2011.

• Infield: Marrero, Espinosa, Desmond, Zimmerman backed up by Gonzalez and Lombardozzi.  This would have required a serious leap of faith on the readiness of Marrero for 2011, and we’d be rushing Lombardozzi to the majors.  Perhaps we would have replaced Lombardozzi with Bixler.

• Outfield: Bernadina, Morgan, Burgess, Morse and CBrown.  I know Burgess was traded, but perhaps the team keeps him and installs him in right field knowing they wouldn’t have Werth.  Perhaps Burgess and Morse compete for right field and we bring up newly acquired CBrown as the 5th outfielder.

• Starters: Maya, Detwiler, Livan, Lannan, Zimmermann.  I leave Livan in here if only because we signed him to such a sweetheart deal.  If we don’t count Livan, we’re looking at someone like Stammen, Mock, Detwiler or Chico in that 5th spot.  Or perhaps we use Broderick as the 5th starter instead of putting him in long relief.

• Relievers: Storen, Clippard, Burnett, Slaten, Broderick, HRodriguez and Carr/Kimball (with ERodriguez on DL).  Our bullpen would have hard throwers at the back end and we’d immediately give AFL hero Kimball or Carr a shot.

Of this active roster, 17-18 would be on pre-arbitration salaries and the total payroll would probably be in the $28-30M range for the entire team. It’d be the “right” thing to do but the town would absolutely howl in protest.

I dunno. I go back and forth as a fan. Part of me says screw 2011, play the kids, see what they can do this year and regroup for 2012 when you can have a very good Strasburg-Zimmermann 1-2 punch to go along with general improvement across the rest of our younger guys.  The other part of me says that incremental growth in terms of wins and respectability for this team is just as important in terms of attracting free agents and enabling the team to make a quick leap in a couple years. If this team can win 75 games this year, Strasburg comes back and probably improves the team 5 wins just by himself, we acquire an incrementally better #3 pitcher and hope that Maya, Detwiler and our rising AAA guys become real major league options. If you’re a 81 win team a couple of key free agent signings coupled with the natural rise of our core up and coming players can improve the team 10-12 wins very quickly. Suddenly we’re a 90 win team and still have a manageable payroll to augment and take the next steps to rise above Atlanta and Philadelphia in the division.

That’s “the plan,” right?

JD Martin's days could be numbered with the team. Photo courtesy of natsnewsnetwork.blogspot.com

1/19/11 Update: with the signing of reliever Todd Coffey, the team now appears to be three men over the limit.  Oh, and about 2 hours later the signing of infielder Jerry Hairston now requiring four guys to be dropped or traded.  One player has been cleared off the 40-man; the predicted JD Martin given his outright release unfortunately later in the afternoon.

Unless I’ve forgotten how to count, and unless I really do not understand the 40-man roster rules, the Nationals have been over the limit for nearly two weeks now.  They signed Adam LaRoche on 1/4/11, then made the announcement official on 1/7/11.  Answer: per Zuckerman’s posting today, “corresponding [40-man roster] moves don’t have to be made until the contract for the new player is formally processed at MLB headquarters in New York.”  LaRoche’s contract didn’t hit NY til today, so the Martin release is the corresponding move.  Still 3 to go.

Yet, here we are on 1/19/11 and no corresponding move has occurred yet.  The Nationals’ 40-man roster has been above 40 ever since.  I believe teams have to make immediate moves but do not have to make them public; a player could have been designated for assignment on 1/7/11, at which point the team has 10 days to actually decide what to do with him.  So perhaps tomorrow 1/19/11 (since we had a holiday mixed in there?) we’ll have an answer.

Likewise, Tom Gorzelanny will also require a corresponding move, since none of the 3 players traded for him were on the 40-man to start with.  With his addition (yes the trade has been announced but it will not be official until all physicals are passed) we’ll be at 42 (43 with the Coffey signing).

So, who on the current 40-man roster is next to go?  If we need to clear four spots without a major trade, then my initial guesses are:

1. Justin Maxwell: I know that Maxwell is a local and is a fan favorite, but the fact remains that we now have at least 5 outfielders with major league time last year (Werth, Ankiel, Morgan, Bernadina, and Morse) that seem to be ahead of Maxwell on the depth chart, plus a 6th outfielder prospect who will get a look prior to Maxwell at this point (CBrown).  He’s never produced at the MLB level and is now far too old to be considered a prospect.

2. J.D. Martin: Martin is probably the right-handed starter version of Maxwell.  He’s fallen down the depth chart, his name isn’t being mentioned as even competing for a rotation spot out of spring, and the argument can be made that he’s not in the top 5 players to make the AAA rotation.  He’s always had ok numbers when he’s pitched in the majors but in a power-arm league, spots for soft-tossing slight-of-frame right handers are limited.

3. The third and fourth spots are tougher.  I think #3 may end up being someone like Luis Atilano.  Mediocre MLB numbers in 2010, coming off of injury, he probably can sneak through waivers as Chico did and get assigned to AAA to try to get back.  He’ll be 26, slightly older than you want in a prospect, and he’s clearly not in the MLB rotation battle for 2011.

4. Atahualpa Severino: he has no mlb experience and is behind Slaten in the loogy battle right now.  However, other teams may see that we just added him to the 40-man last year and might take a look.  He’s a bit old for a prospect with no MLB time and he could slip through waivers.

This 4th spot is a stretch though, and I think honestly a better way to clear space may be a set of prospects trade for a veteran.  I don’t see at this point how Morse or Detwiler makes the 25-man roster, so perhaps we should look instead to package these guys for a player.

Other candidates (and their reasons for keeping them over Atilano and Martin right now) could be Mock (lively fastball, good stuff and a favorite of the organization), Martis (still young and still could prosper),  and Marrero (still too early to give up on him; needs one more season to prove he belongs but he’s clearly blocked for 2 years by LaRoche; could be a trade candidate).

Mike Rizzo answering the latest question about where the money is coming from for the Werth contract. Photo: centerfieldgate.com

Each year heading into the off-season, I make up a transactional “to-do” list for the team (as if I were the GM).  Essentially you look at the roster and kind of work backwards.  Based on the way things looked at the end of 2010, the Nationals seemed set on:

• C (Pudge, Ramos)
• most of the infield: 2b (Espinosa), SS (Desmond), 3B (Zimmerman)
• LF (Willingham)
• 3-4 starters (Lannan, Marquis, LHernandez, Zimmermann), and
• several relievers (Clippard, Burnett, Storen)

So, given this, here’s what I listed as off season priorities and where we stand post the Winter Meetings (and counting all the rumors and scuttlebutt we’ve been hearing):

Fantasy

• Power hitting reliable RF
• Top-of-the-rotation Starting Pitcher
• Better Centerfielder/Leadoff Hitter

1. In what was easily the most surprising move this team has done since relocating from Montreal, we acquired a front-line marquee FA in Jayson Werth, satisfying the “power hitting RF” fantasy requirement.  Yes there are concerns about the contract’s length and value, but hey, we’re a better team for getting him.

2. Rizzo has definitely made mention of wanting to acquire a “top of the rotation” starter but they are hard to come by this off season.  Cliff Lee is the target, and from there the list dwindled quickly to include guys who were middle of the road veterans with question marks (Vazquez, Pavano), FA starters that weren’t exactly planning on going anywhere (Lilly, Kuroda, de La Rosa, Arroyo, Garland, Padilla) and incredibly risky alternatives (Webb, Darvish, Francis).

3. Lastly, despite my desire to upgrade from Nyjer Morgan in center and leadoff (for reasons that include discipline, chemistry and performance), Rizzo seems set on the guy for the time being.  I would not be surprised to see no more movement in this area.  I advocated trading Willingham to Boston for possible spare-part outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury in a previous post, but despite Willingham’s offensive capabilities Boston may also value defense and may not really be interested in acquiring more bats this off season.

Reality

• First Baseman
• 1-2 Veteran FA pitchers
• Utility Middle Infielder

1. Acquiring a first baseman included the possibility of re-signing Adam Dunn, despite all indications that it was never to happen.  Rizzo clearly will take less power for more defense at first, and we seem destined to sign Adam LaRoche (after missing out on Carlos Pena, the player I was absolutely sure we’d get).  Frankly, for my money I’d rather have LaRoche.  He’ll sign a 2 year deal for less than any of Dunn, Pena, Konerko or Huff would have signed for, he hits for power and he is a plus defender.  I think he’s perfect until we figure out if Chris Marrero or someone even more remote (like high-A stud hitter and Nats minor leaguer of the year in 2010 Tyler Moore) becomes a possibility.  A final thought; I do NOT want to be left with Derrek Lee as the solution.  He’s a right handed hitter on a team that is now full of them.  Zimmerman, Willingham, Werth all righties; we need a lefty slugger to break up the middle of our batting order.

2. I still see the acquisition of one or two veteran FA pitchers on the horizon.  I can see us (unless someone foolishly offers him $10M) signing Brandon Webb on a one year flier.  I can see us re-signing Wang to a minor league deal with an invite to spring training.

3. The backup middle infielder is a lower priority but still important.  If Desmond/Espinosa are holding down the starting spots and Alberto Gonzalez is begrudingly serving as the primary glove-man backup, we still need a second player that can do middle infield.  Willie Harris has been that player but he really tailed off last season.  Adam Kennedy served as the backup for the right side of the infield but he clearly wants to start.  I was lobbying for Pete Orr as a nice cheap candidate; he had always produced for us when called up, could play 2nd, 3rd or even outfield.  But he signed elsewhere as a minor league FA.  Perhaps the answer is a prospect to be named (Lombardozzi?) or a FA signing.  I like David Eckstein to team him up with his hitting-coach brother but he probably wants a starting job too.  And Eckstein wouldn’t make sense unless we traded one of Desmond/Espinosa (still a possibility; see later).

Less Likely

• FA Closer
• Trade for a Veteran pitcher
• 1 veteran bullpen presence

1. There are a couple closer-types on the FA market and I can now see the Nats picking one up ala their deal with Matt Capps to cover for Storen as he grows into the spot.  Jenks, Dotel,Gregg, Hoffman, Soriano, Wood all available (Soriano a type-A though, so we wont’ get him).  I think this would make for a good piece of business and could serve as a useful trade chip mid season.

2. I can see us working out a trade with Tampa Bay to acquire Matt Garza.  Tampa wants to get rid of payroll, not add it, but perhaps we can pre-arrange a one-year deal with Willingham and flip him to Tampa.  Washington could eat some of the salary and Willingham would slot nicely into the left field spot recently vacated by Carl Crawford.  Tampa may like this deal since Willingham projects to be a type-A free agent and would net them 2 picks when he leaves (you have to think Willingham wants to get at least a 3-year deal when he hits the FA market based on his age and his proclivities for injuries).  Of course, getting rid of Willingham also puts a hole into OUR lineup, one that looks pretty promising when we get a power hitting lefty first baseman.  And we certainly would like to get some compensation picks to continue to rebuild the farm system.  More likely Tampa would ask for someone like Desmond, which would be a tough trade to swallow for a team that hasn’t really developed that many marquee players in the last 5 years.  We could trade Desmond, acquire Garza, move Espinosa to short (where he’s a better fielder anyway) then sign a short term 2nd baseman like David Eckstein or Orlando Hudson until one of our high-end 2nd base prospects (Lobardozzi, Rick Hague or Jeff Kobernus) is ready to go.

3. Lastly, with not one but TWO arms picked up in the rule5 draft, the likelihood of us acquiring any veteran bullpen arms seems nil.  Perhaps we re-sign Peralta as a long man, but we have plenty of cover there in Balester and Stammen.  We have all the arms we could want coming up (Kimball, Carr, Wilkie all project as mid-bullpen arms, and the AA team is filled with good arms with no place to move up to with so many AAA starters on the 40-man) and we have three great live arms in Storen, Clippard and Burnett already in place.

It has been a pretty fun offseason to track thus far for Nats fans.  I can’t wait to see what happens next.