casey janssen at Nationals Arm Race

We miss you: Former Nats from the 2015 team and where they are now

Did we dodge a bullet by allowing Zimmermann to leave? Photo via The Boston Globe.

Next in a series moving backwards. Here was the “We Miss You” for the 2016 team.

Lets go back a year and look at those players gone from the 2015 team. I’m building these partly from the Nats to Oblivion Posts and partly from my own notes using a combination of players gone via FA, trades, DFAs, to include major league players and significant minor league players. If a player is still in the org but was just DFA’d off the 40-man, I’ll mostly skip them. I may miss someone; pipe up in the comments if I have a glaring miss.

I’ll organize this by roughly by the level of the player; major league players who left via FA or trade, then DFA’d/declined players, then minor leaguers of note who departed.

Jordan Zimmermann; signed 5/$110M with Detroit and left us with a comp pick, used to take Dane Dunning. I think its safe to say that Zimmermann’s tenure in Detroit thus far has been disappointing: he had a 4.87 ERA in 2016 and missed half the season, and he’s been even worse this year. Detroit has to behaving some buyer’s remorse right now. And he’s signed for 3 more years past this one, at big money.
Dan Uggla: The Nats were probably his last stand chance in the majors; hit just .183 and was given just 17 ABs the last two months of the 2015 season. Never signed for 2016 and seems to be retired.
Doug Fister: signed 1/$7M with Houston, to whom he gave 32 starts and 180 innings of mediocrity (4.64 ERA) in 2016. Apparently still believes he’s worthy of a 25-man spot and refused all offers this past off-season that were not MLB deals. Remains unsigned as of this writing; he may have to swallow his pride if he wants to keep playing and take a MLFA deal.
Ian Desmond signed 1/$11M with Texas after declining Washington’s qualifying offer. Desmond became kind of the poster child for all the things wrong with the Qualifying Offer season; after turning down a 5yr/$89.5M deal the previous season, he turned down a guaranteed $15.8M offer to eventually sign for $11M. To add insult to injury, Desmond had to move off of SS for Texas, which was what propped up his value in the first place. He had an up-and-down season with Texas, starting the year incredibly hot and making the All Star team, but slumping towards the end. He got saddled with a second QO, which he again signed, but his 2016 season was enough for Colorado to give him perhaps the most inexplicable contract of last off-season, a 5yr/$70M deal … to play first base. A position he’d never played before. And Colorado gave up literally the highest unprotected draft pick to do so (the 11th pick in the upcoming 2017 draft). Desmond suffered a hand injury this spring, and as a result Colorado has installed slugger Mark Reynolds at 1B; he’s done so well that the team is wondering just what they’ll do with Desmond when he returns in early May. On the bright side for Desmond; at least he finally got paid. And i’m sure that 100% of Nats fans would take what the team has done at SS since over having a $90M contract on their hands.
Denard Span signed 3/$31M with San Francisco, capping a frustrating year for Span and the team. He only played 61 games for the 2015 team, forcing the Nats to start Michael Taylor and his 30% K rate in CF for a good chunk of the season. Span’s first season in SF was similar to his first in DC; he struggled offensively. He’s been even worse in 2017, and is currently on the D/L (in an interesting twist of fate; his replacement on the SF active roster? None other than Michael Morse).
Nate McLouth; The team couldn’t wait to decline his 2016 option and pay his 750k buyout for 2016 after his disastrous stint with Washington. His contract was ill-advised from the start; did we really need to pay good money to have a “veteran 4th outfielder?” McLouth missed the entirety of 2015, has yet to sign since, and may have played his way out of baseball.
Matt Thornton signed a MLFA deal with San Diego for 2016, got called up after a couple of months in AAA, but struggled. He posted a 5.82 ERA over the next couple of months and was released in August. He has not appeared since and now at age 40 is likely done.
Casey Janssen was so poor for the Nats that they bought his 2016 out for a cool $1.5M buyout for 2016); he also signed a MLFA deal with San Diego for 2016. Ah San Diego; the place where pitchers go to resurrect their careers. He was released in late Spring Training 2016, got picked up with Boston in June of 2016, pitched a bit for their Short-A and AAA teams then was released in early August 2016. Did not pick up with a team for 2017 and at age 35 with little velocity on his fastball, he may be retired.
Reed Johnson got picked back up on a MLFA deal by Washington for 2016 season, but did not make the team out of spring and was released on 4/2/16. He did not pick up with anyone for 2016 and at age 39 may be retired.

Taylor Jordan: After brief stints with the team in 2015, started 2016 in AAA but got hurt in June of 2016, he had a second TJ surgery … and then was released by the club on 6/28/16 to correspond to the Giolito contract addition. Man, that seems kind of cold to release a guy just after surgery, but his odds of making it back to the majors just took a significant hit. As of 2017 has not re-signed anywhere and seems a long-shot to do so, with little major league track record and two arm injuries. Likely out of baseball at this point.
David Carpenter: shoulder injury, DFA’d, elected free agency and quickly signed a ML deal with Atlanta for 2016. However he was cut after just a handful of spring training games; maybe his injury is worse than we thought. He then bounced from Tampa to the Angels system for 2016, and then signed back with Tampa as a MLFA/NRI for 2017, but was cut on 4/4/17.
Emmanuel Burriss: signed MLFA with Philly and lead-off against the Nats in their first visit to Philadelphia in the new season. He was DFA’d and purchased a couple times by Philly last year, but upon his outright after the season he elected FA and signed a MLFA to return to the Nats for 2017. He looked like nice utility infielder insurance until he got suspended for a “drug of abuse” in the spring (his second such offense). He currently sits on Syracuse’s restricted list. I have to say; his status as the sole DC-bred baseball player in the pros (as far as I can tell) and his playing for the Washington franchise seems to put him in a great post-career outreach position … but now with two drug suspensions on his resume, I wonder if he’s scuttled any such possibility of representing the team in the community.
Craig Stammen: fan favorite had an ill-timed injury late in the 2015 season and was non-tendered instead of guaranteeing him a contract for 2016. He signed a MLFA with Cleveland for 2016 but never made it out of AAA. I had him as a leading “oblivion candidate” until he signed another MLFA deal for 2017 and made the San Diego opening day roster. His april has not been good though, sporting an ERA in the mid 8s as of May 1st. He may be in danger of a DFA, which might spell the end of his MLB career given how the last couple of seasons have gone. He gave the Nats 3 solid years as a bullpen workhorse that may have led to his eventual wearing out.
Tyler Moore never could match the magic of his debut season in 2012, but a series of injuries kept him hanging around in 2014 and 2015 when he may otherwise have been released. His luck ran out though for the 2016 team, when he got beat out for the RH bench bat by Chris Heisey and he got DFA’d at the end of spring training. We negotiated a trade of similar discarded assets with Atlanta, trading Moore for Nate Freiman. Freiman didn’t last three weeks with the AAA team before being released (a measure of just how little we got in return for trade), while Moore got injured early and missed most of the year for AAA Gwinnett. He signed a MLFA for 2017 with the Marlins and team out of spring training. He even got a crucial hit against the Nats early in 2017 season, but was soon DFA’d again. He passed through waivers and was outrighted to New Orleans (where, as noted in the previous post, he joins a litany of former Nats).
Xavier Cedeno was the first 25-man DFA of the 2015 season. He was used 4 times in 5 nights in early April, gave up a couple of runs and then got designated with just 3 IP. It was an odd move at the time; why was he getting appearance after appearance if the team was going to DFA him? Why did the team have so little patience with him? After his DFA, he got purchased by the Dodgers, who then sold him to the Rays 5 days later … and he had 61 appearances with a 2.09 ERA for Tampa Bay the rest of 2015. He was a solid bullpen arm for them all of 2016 and remains on their team now. Do you think maybe the team gave up on him too soon?
Taylor Hill: Hill was DFA’d to make room for January 2016 signings and was outrighted to AAA, where he pitched the entire 2016 season. Hill finished out the year for AAA Syracuse with a 4.60 ERA in 27 starts. He is still with the AAA team for 2017 but has been passed on the depth chart by several guys (Cole, Voth, Fedde) and faces long odds of a return to the majors with this organization. Additionally, Hill has started the 2017 AAA season by getting shelled; an 8.14 ERA for April. He may be in serious jeopardy of getting released.
Aaron Barrett: Tommy John in 2015, then in June of 2016, he had a major set-back in his TJ recovery, fracturing his elbow. He has re-signed with the Nats for 2017 and starts the year on the AAA D/L. I was happy to see the Nats give Barrett this gesture of signing him so that he can rehab with the team, and I hope it pays off with an eventual return to the fold.
Matt Purke got his last shot at salvaging a career with the Nats, who signed him for big-time money ($2.75M as a 3rd rounder in 2011, the last free for all non-capped bonus draft). He failed to impress again, and the team let him go to free agency. He signed a MLFA deal with the Chicago White Sox, who assigned him to AAA … and then he earned a call-up by mid May 2016. The nats were looking rather foolish for cutting bait on a guy who made the Chicago MLB team after just a few weeks. But his time in South-Side was short lived; he was optioned back to the minors by the end of June, never made it back, was outrighted over the off-season and started 2017 off the 40-man pitching for AAA Charlotte. He is still wild (8 walks in 11 2017 innings) but he’s only 26 so there may still be time. But from a Nats transaction perspective, i’m not sure what else they could have done.
Yunel Escobar: after a productive season with the Nats, where Escobar played multiple positions and covered for infield injuries galore, he was traded to Los Angeles Angels for Trevor Gott and Michael Brady in the off-season. At the time of the trade (mid December 2015) Escobar was considered surplus to requirements, in that the team had its infield already spoken for in Anthony Rendon, Danny Espinosa, and Trea Turner. Two weeks later the team signed Danny Murphy to play 2B, thus relegating Turner back to AAA to save his service clock. Escobar was traded to the team with perhaps the worst farm system in the majors; Gott has yet to throw a pitch for the MLB team and Brady is already gone via MLFA, so the return for Escobar is rather paltry. That being said, I think the league knew we were shopping him, he had just had a career year with a BA 30 points above his career average, and may have been ceiling limited with the expectation of regression. Since the trade, Escobar has played a solid 3B for the Angels and kept his BA above .300, and has been joined in their infield by fellow Nats reject Espinosa.
Drew Storen traded with cash to Toronto for Ben Revere, ptbnl. I think we’ve litigated the Storen case to death; he was flipped more or less since the acquisition of Jonathan Papelbon and Storen’s undeserved demotion seemed to break him; it was as clear of a case of someone needing “a change of scenery” as I’ve seen with one of our players. We got a player in Revere that filled a point of need (CF) and one that looked on paper like a good deal at the time. I think its fair to say now that this trade didn’t work out for either team: Storen put up an ERA north of 6.00 for Toronto, got flipped again to Seattle, and at current sits as the 8th inning guy for one of the worst teams in baseball (Cincinnati). Meanwhile Revere barely hit the Mendoza line for the Nats, forcing the team to put its SS of the future into CF as a make-shift replacement, and got non-tendered at season’s end. A crummy end to Storen’s career here, where he remains in 2nd place all time (behind Chad Cordero) in career franchise saves.
Kila Ka’aihue, Ian Stewart, Mike Carp: part of the great 2016 RH bat spring training cattle call; didn’t make the team and were eventually released.
Tony Renda traded to Yankees for David Carpenter mid-season in an attempt to buttress the bullpen. Didn’t work. Renda may have been my farcical “future hall of famer” before Max Schrock, in that they’re both basically undersized middle infielders that posted good minor league numbers but seem ceiling limited. Renda got traded to Cincinnati ahead of the 2016 season, had a cup of coffee up there, but got outrighted after the 2016 season and remains on the AAA Louisville roster.
Mitch Lively and Evan Meek: both AAA hurlers released from their contracts so they could sign in Japan and Korea respectively. Lively struggled in Japan and has been pitching in the Mexican league ever since, while Meek also struggled in the KBO and has been playing indy ball ever since.
Jose Valverde opted out of his MLFA contract and was released in July; never picked back up for 2015, or 2016. Kept pitching in winter ball and is now in the Mexican league.
Eric Fornataro the off-season waiver claim never made it out of AAA, posting a mid 5 ERA and got released in July. He picked back up with a MLFA for 2016 with Baltimore, but struggled in AA and was released in May of 2016. He has not signed since and may be done.
Nick Pivetta: traded to Philadelphia for Papelbon. We know the Papelbon story, and now we know the Pivetta story; he debuted in Philly’s rotation last weekend in LA after a solid year starting in AA and AAA in 2016 and a hot start in Lehigh Valley for 2017. He may be in a position to haunt the Nats for 6 seasons …. all for a year and a half of tumult out of Papelbon.
Dan Butler was a Catcher we received from Boston for Danny Rosenbaum in Jan of 2015; he was a 40-man spot holder for most of the season but served mostly as catcher depth before being DFA’d in July to make room for Papelbon. He was outrighted to AAA, elected FA after the season and went right back to Boston for 2016. He remains as their AAA backup catcher.

Did I miss anyone?

Player I most miss from this list: From a Nats “legacy” perspective it was tough to wave good bye to Ian Desmond, who gave this franchise 11 years of his life. Same with Zimmermann; he was part of the core that turned this team from a laughing stock to divisional winner.

Player Loss I most regret using unfair “hindsight is 20/20” vision: Pivetta. Even if he’s “only” a 4th starter, he represents all that was wrong with the Papelbon decision.

Player Loss that is the most “We dodged a bullet” situation: Zimmermann’s contract; we thought he’d get overpaid, but a year and a half in his contract looks awful for an aging team that’s moving the wrong direction and has little chance of unseating Cleveland in their own division.

Written by Todd Boss

May 3rd, 2017 at 8:00 am

From Nats to Oblivion; Updated for 2016 season and 2017 Early Season appearances

44 comments

Papelbon becomes the most high-profile 2016 Oblivion candidate. He’ll always have this though. Picture via ny daily news

Note: this is a recurring post, and large chunks of the older material is recycled. I’ve updated the research for older players as needed (mostly 2015 and 2014’s players), getting 2016 season updates for everyone on this list still playing, plus 2017 assignments and whether or not htey’ve . See here for the 2015 version, 2014’s version, 2013’s version, and 2012’s version of this post, though honestly everything from those posts that’s still relevant is updated here.

Even though I know most of this data is repeated from last year, I still find myself reading the whole way down just for a crazy trip down memory lane each time I do this post.

Background: many years ago (November 2010) Mark Zuckerman initially posted a fascinating analysis he titled “From Nats to Oblivion.” It chronicled the astoundingly high number of players that the early incarnations of the Nats were using who, once the Nats released them, never again appeared in a MLB game. I thought the analysis was so interesting that I kept up the same data and have been keeping it up-to-date with the whereabouts of Nats-to-Oblivion candidates ever since. So with apologies to Zuckerman for stealing his original idea, here’s an interesting visit to the Nats darker past.

It is nearly impossible for a team to field an entire year’s worth of players who will not fall into this “Oblivion” category. Every MLB team has guys playing out the string or near retirement, and every MLB team calls up guys through out the season from the minors who eventually show themselves as unable to compete on the MLB level and who never make it back. So a 0% oblivion measure isn’t a goal. The best this team has done is 4 players (the 2013 team). I don’t think the 2015 team will get that low, and I’m not sure the 2016 team will get that low either.

For your reminiscing pleasure, here is the summary data updated to the 2016 team:

2016: 19 position, 24 pitchers, 43 total. 5/43 = 11.6% candidate ratio right now.
2015: 20 position, 24 pitcher, 44 total. 7/44 = 15.9% candidate ratio right now.
2014: 22 position, 18 pitchers, 40 total. 5/40 = 12.5% candidate ratio right now
2013: 23 position, 21 pitchers, 44 total. 3/44 = 6.8% candidate ratio right now
2012: 24 position, 19 pitchers, 43 total. 6/43 = 13.9% candidate ratio right now
2011: 20 position, 24 pitchers, 44 total. 6/44 = 13.6% candidate ratio
2010: 20 position, 26 pitchers, 46 total. 12/46 = 26.0% never appeared again
2009: 25 position, 30 pitchers, 55 total. 9/55 = 16.3% never appeared again
2008: 25 position, 25 pitchers, 50 total. 8/50 = 16% never appeared again
2007: 21 position, 26 pitchers, 47 total. 12/47 = 25.5% never appeared again
2006: 28 position, 29 pitchers, 57 total. 20/57 = 35% never appeared again
2005: 30 position, 25 pitchers, 55 total. 16/55 = 29% never appeared again

Look at the 2006 season; 35% of the players who played for the team that year never played another Major League game. That’s still astounding to me. Read on for a detailed look back at some of the very bad players that have put in significant time for this team.

2016: (5 leading candidates right now, 7 overall counting 40-man guys):

Total players used: 19 position players, 24 pitchers, 43 total. 5/43 = 11.6% candidate ratio right now.

Candidates: They are listed in the order of their odds of staying on this list: highest to lowest odds that they’re done playing.

Jonathan Papelbon: hard to believe he’s on this list. But the facts remain; after his release mid-2016, not only did he not sign on for the rest of the season … he has yet to sign on with anyone for 2017. Is it possible he’s being forced into retirement? I think he still holds value as a middle reliever for someone, but it is a possibility that his “baggage” is preventing teams from signing him. Or perhaps he’s instructed his agent to hold out for closing jobs only. Nonetheless, of all the players on this list, right now I give Papelbon the highest probability of being done with baseball and staying on this list.
Sean Burnett: given a quick look late in 2016, signed MLFA deal with Philadelphia for 2017 but failed to make their opening day Roster. Active on Philly’s AAA team all of 2017, but no appearances. Might be done.
Spencer Kieboom: had a “Moonlight Graham” esque 2016 debut; one at bat, a walk, then an off-season DFA. He remains in the organization but once you’re off that 40-man, its tough to get back on. I still think he’s 4th on the realistic catcher depth chart and may get called back up if injuries persist, but there is another catcher (Raudy Read) on the 40-man which complicates things for Kieboom. At least he got his one AB in the majors … which gives him access to the MLB players health benefit plan for life.
Clint Robinson: long-time minor league veteran made the team in 2015 and had a break-out season, but struggled badly in 2016, prompting the team to sign Adam Lind to a guaranteed deal, all but eliminating Robinson’s chances from making the roster. Robinson was waived towards the end of Spring Training as expected, cleared waivers and is at Syracuse. I give him a decent chance of getting called back up if Lind or Ryan Zimmerman gets hurt.
Rafael Martin: Just a handful of Sept 2016 innings after a not-very-impressive 2016 in Syracuse, and was DFA’d early in 2017; he was outrighted and may struggle to return to the majors.

Names removed since Apr 2017 publication: Espinosa, Revere, Belisle, Melancon, Rzepczynski, all of whom signed MLB deals and appeared in the first week of 2017 for new teams. Petit, who made the 2017 Angels as an NRI. Difo and Taylor for making the Nats 2017 opening day roster and getting appearances. Mat Latos removed when Toronto added him and called him up in April 2017, shocking me; I figured Latos was done. Technically Ross’ first start removed him from this list. Matt den Dekker got removed when Detroit recalled him for a few games in June 2017. Wilson Ramos indeed returned from his injury and began starting for Tampa. Brian Goodwin not only returned to the majors but got an extended run of starts with Werth’s 2017 foot injury. Severino got recalled during an outfielder crunch in July 2017. A.J. Cole got a spot-start in May 2017. Relievers Gott and Grace both got re-calls, with Grace impressing and Gott not. Reynaldo Lopez removed upon his 8/11/17 call-up for CWS. Giolito was called up a week later.

Outlook for remaining 2016 Oblivion candidates: Of the 5 candidates, I don’t see an easy path forward for any of them. Two are older guys probably forced out of the game, the other three marginal prospects who, now that they’re off the 40-man roster, face long odds of getting back on.

Favorite Nats to Oblivion Story: Jonathan Papelbon. (ok maybe not “favorite” but certainly most interesting…). What a whirlwind career he had with the Nats: he was already controversial even before arriving, then essentially ended the productive career of Drew Storen, who he replaced (as a condition of his accepting the trade) as closer upon his arrival. Two months into his tenure here, he took it upon himself to choke teammate Bryce Harper as Harper and the rest of the team disappointingly played out the string of the 2015 season. These two buried the hatchet over the off-season, and everyone looked happy entering 2016 … but a 6.00 ERA in June and an even worse ERA in July sealed Papelbon’s fate; the team paid heavily to acquire Mark Melancon for the stretch run and Papelbon was released a couple weeks later. Quite the Nats tenure for the combustible Papelbon. Side note: for reasons beyond explanation, the Papelbon’s decided to buy a $2.9M house in Alexandria just after his acquisition …. which was only assessed at half their purchase price. I wonder if they ever even moved in?

2015: (7 candidates right now):

Total players used: 20 position, 24 pitcher, 44 total. 7/44 = 15.9% candidate ratio right now.

Candidates (these players are listed in the order of their odds of staying on this list: highest to lowest odds that they’re done playing):

Dan Uggla: The Nats were probably his last stand chance in the majors; hit just .183 and was given just 17 ABs the last two months of the 2015 season. Never signed for 2016 and seems to be retired.
Reed Johnson: Got picked back up on a MLFA deal by Washington for 2016 season, but did not make the team out of spring and was released on 4/2/16. He did not pick up with anyone for 2016 and at age 39 may be retired.
Casey Janssen: Signed a ML deal with San Diego for 2016 but was released in late Spring Training. Picked up with Boston in June of 2016, pitched a bit for their Short-A and AAA teams then was released in early August 2016. Did not pick up with a MLB team for 2017. Signed for a Mexican league team, pitched in 15 games and was released. Might be the end of the line for the 35-yr old.
Taylor Jordan: After brief appearances in 2015, started 2016 in AAA but got hurt in June of 2016, he had a second TJ surgery … and then was released by the club on 6/28/16 to correspond to the Giolito contract addition. Man, that seems kind of cold to release a guy just after surgery, but his odds of making it back to the majors just took a significant hit. As of 2017 has not re-signed anywhere and seems a long-shot to do so, with little major league track record and two arm injuries. Likely done.
David Carpenter: shoulder injury, DFA’d, elected free agency and quickly signed a ML deal with Atlanta for 2016. However he was cut after just a handful of spring training games; maybe his injury is worse than we thought. He then bounced from Tampa to the Angels system for 2016, and then signed back with Tampa as a MLFA/NRI for 2017, but was cut on 4/4/17. Signed w/ Arizona in July 2017 and posted an ERA north of 9.00 for AA/AAA.
Taylor Hill: Hill was DFA’d to make room for January 2016 signings and was outrighted to AAA, so he faces longer odds to get back to the majors at this point. If it comes to it, would you rather go with Hill or the likes of Voth or Giolito at this point? Hill finished out the year for AAA Syracuse with a 4.60 ERA in 27 starts, but I’d have to say he’s just an innings-eater/org guy now. Still with the team for 2017 but has been passed on the depth chart by several guys (Cole, Voth, Fedde) and faces long odds of a return to the majors with this organization. Started 2017 badly, demoted to AA.
Aaron Barrett: the odds of him turning into Cole Kimball seems small; an elbow is not a shoulder. But until he recovers from his 2015 surgery, he’s an Oblivion candidate. He’ll sit on the 60-day D/L for most of 2016. In June of 2016, he had a major set-back in his TJ recovery, fracturing his elbow. This will require another visit to Dr. James Andrews and another surgery. The Nats outrighted him off the 40-man after the 2016 season and he elected free agency. He has re-signed with the Nats for 2017 and starts the year on the AAA D/L.

Names recently removed: Fister (signed a $7M deal with Houston for 2016). Thornton (MLFA deal with San Diego and made 25-man roster). Burriss: signed MLFA with Philly and lead-off against the Nats in their first visit to Philadelphia in the new season. Added Stammen when he failed to make Cleveland’s 25-man roster in 2016. Removed Solis when he got called up to cover for injury to Belisle. Removed Martin when he got called up briefly on 6/27/16. Removed de los Santos when he got waived, picked up by Cincinnati and appeared for them mid Sept 2016. Removed all our 2015 prospect-types who all got 2016 call-ups: Turner, Difo, Severino, Grace, Cole. Stammen removed after he made the 2017 San Diego Padres out of spring training. Tyler Moore made the 2017 Marlins, and got a crucial hit against the Nats early in 2017 season, but was soon DFA’d.

Note: the one guy DFA’d mid-season 2015 by the Nats (Xavier Cedeno) got purchased by the Dodgers, who then sold him to the Rays 5 days later … and he had 61 appearances with a 2.09 ERA for Tampa Bay this year. Do you think maybe the team gave up on him too soon?

Outlook for 2015 Oblivion candidates: Most of these guys seem like they have little shot of re-gaining a MLB spot; the first 4 guys are likely retired at this point (Uggla, Johnson, Janssen, Jordan), and the other 3 (Barrett, Carpenter, Hill) face pretty long odds to make it back.

Favorite Nats to Oblivion Story: Dan Uggla. Uggla was released out of a $13M/year contract from Atlanta and the Nats picked him up for 2015, paying just a MLB minimum on him as middle infield cover/lottery ticket. Well, Uggla’s luck turned out pretty well as injuries shredded the Nats lineup and Uggla earned a 25-man roster spot. He played sparingly throughout April but had a massive homer in the epic April 28th come-from-behind 13-12 win over Atlanta, which sparked the Nats (who were just 7-13 at the time) to a 21-6 run. It was one of just two homers Uggla hit on the year (the other in the last game of the season/his career), and Uggla played less and less as the team got healthier. For the year he hit just .183, which was in line with what he had hit the prior to years, and he never got picked up after his “last hurrah” season. Uggla never seemed to recover from two separate concussions he suffered from HBPs (one in July 2012, another in ST 2013), never again hitting even the meager .220 he managed in 2012.

2014 (5 remaining candidates right now):

Total Players used: 22 position, 18 pitchers, 40 total. 5/40 = 12.5% candidate ratio right now

Candidates:

Greg Dobbs: FA after 2014, retired in May 2015 when he didn’t catch on with a new club.
Nate McLouth, who signed an ill-advised 2-year deal to be our “veteran 4th outfielder” behind Denard Span … but who struggled in 2014 and then missed the entirety of 2015. The team bought out his 2016 option and as of this writing has not signed with a new team (not even a minor league deal). May have played his way out of the game. (Thanks to Karl in the comments for the reminder on McLouth).
Jeff Kobernus: Released by the team Mar 2015, played the rest of 2015 with SF’s A+ club in San Jose, MLFA for 2016. He never signed with anyone in 2016 and may be finished.
Scott Hairston: FA after 2014, sat out 2015. Signed for Chicago White Sox for 2016, but then was cut on 3/29/16. He did not pick back up with anyone for 2016, and at age 36 could be forced into retirement.
Nate Schierholtz: FA after 2014, signed w/ Texas but did not stay with club out of spring training. Played 2015 in Japan, then signed as a MLFA with Detroit in Dec 2015. Starting in AAA for Detroit 2016 but not a 40-man player. Subsequently released on 5/23/16 after hitting .246, did not pick back up for the rest of 2016. May be done.

Names removed since the last post: Kevin Frandsen (signed w/ SFG and appeared in 7 games in 2015), Ryan Mattheus (got one game with LAA, waived, then pitched the whole of 2015 in Cincinnati’s bullpen), Rafael Soriano (who finally signed with the Cubs in June but had just 6 appearances before getting released on 9/4/15, and Taylor Hill (who had 12IP across 6 games for the Nats in 2015). Added Nate McLouth after Karl noticed he was missing in the comments.

Outlook for 2014 Oblivion candidates: after a rough 2016 for all these players, only Schierholz really seems like he may give it another shot, but he never signed for 2017 and this list may be complete.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: I’ll go with Kobernus at this point, if only because he went to my dad’s Alma Mater (Cal-Berkeley) at a time where the program was threatened with the Axe (eventually donations resurrected the program in 2011). He’s an example of an odd fascination the Nats seem to have with good field-no hit upper round draft picks from Cal (see also Renda, Tony).

2013 (3 Candidates):

Total Players used: 23 position, 21 pitchers, 44 total. 3/44 = 6.8% candidate ratio right now

Current Candidates

Chad Tracy: MLFA signed w/ LA Angels for spring 2014, cut, retired 4/25/14.
Yunesky Maya; MLFA with Atlanta AAA for 2014, then went to Korea where he got pounded for two seasons. Just signed a MLFA deal with Los Angeles Angels for 2016 and is pitching for AAA Salt Lake. He strained his elbow and missed a big chunk of the 2016 season, which was a missed opportunity for Maya as the Angels had very little SP depth. Did not sign for 2017.
Erik Davis; Nats AAA 2014 60 day D/L Tommy John surgery 2014, still on Nats D/L 2015. Outrighted off the 40-man in January 2016, assigned to AAA. Posted a 4.13 ERA in a full year of middle relief for Syracuse, with excellent K/9 ratios, but did not merit a 9/1 call up. Elected free agency after 2016, signed with Arizona and pitching at AAA Reno for the organization in 2017, posting mediocre numbers but pitching a ton (50+ appearances in 2017).

Updates since last post: removed Jhonatan Solano went 1-20 for Miami in 2015 and may be a “Marlins to Oblivion” candidate going forward. Removed Chris Marrero after he made the 2017 San Francisco Giants team in a shock (four years in the minors between MLB at bats). Unfortunately he was DFA’d just a few weeks later after struggling to start the season.

Outlook for 2013 Oblivion candidates: The 2 active remaining guys face uphill climbs; none remain with the Nats. Davis is with a new organization for 2017 while Maya has not signed for 2017 and may be done.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Yunesky Maya, who was Mike Rizzo‘s first foray into the Cuban exile market. Signed to a 4yr/$8M deal, he was given several shots at the majors and never could capitalize. He arrived in the US with a wide arsenal of pitches but not a lot of swing-and-miss talent, and he ended up basically being a AAA starter. He spent the last three seasons as Syracuse’s lead starter (getting 22, 28 and 24 starts there in-between infrequent call-ups) and ended up with just one career MLB win for his $8M salary (making his one of the worst dollars-per-win contracts ever … even if it was “just” $8M). This whole paragraph is assuming that Maya never makes it back to the majors … but based on what he’s shown thus far combined with his advancing age, that seems like a likely end-result for the Cuban starter. As we speak, he has given up on minor league ball and has decamped for Korea, where he’s shown some good stats in limited appearances.

2012 (6 candidates)

Total Players used: 24 position, 19 pitchers, 43 total. 6/43 = 13.9% candidate ratio right now

Candidates

Brad Lidge: Retired post 2012.
Christian Garcia: got added to the 40-man roster down the stretch of 2012 and provided some electric relief out of the pen, even making the playoff roster. Got hurt in ST 2013, went to the 60-day D/L, still hurt in 2014, and released in June of that year. Garcia never had bad stats … just too many injuries that he couldn’t overcome. (Thanks to commenter Justin for this reminder!)
Ryan Perry: Wash AAA/AA 2013, 2014, released by Washington in 2014, signed back with Detroit and played 2014-2015 with their AAA affiliate. Released mid 2015 by Toledo and never signed on again for 2015 or 2016; may be done.
Jesus Flores; signed ML deal with Los Angeles Dodgers for 2013, was with TB, KC for 2014, Miami AAA for 2015, but was released in July 2015 and never re-signed. Played Winter Ball 2015 never signed for 2016; may be done.
Brett Carroll: signed ML deal w/ Pittsburgh for 2013, Tor for 2014. Never signed for 2015, looks done.
Carlos Maldonado: Wash AAA 2013. Played Venezuelan Winter Ball for a number of years, then after no US-based organized ball for 2 seasons signed a ML deal with Texas in 2015 …and made their AA team as a 37-yr old. Still plugging away. In 2016 Maldonado again was assigned to Frisco, but was immediately put on the D/L and never appeared. In fact, he doesn’t even have a minor league at bat since 2013; is he just on a roster to serve as a bullpen catcher?

Updates since last post: Updates for Maldonado, who I can’t believe is still playing in the bus leagues at age 37. Added Christian Garcia after commenter Justin noticed he was missing.

Outlook for 2012 Oblivion candidates: Only Maldonado seems like he’s still technically “active,” but as a 38-yr old catcher who hasn’t even had an at-bat since 2013 the odds of him making it back are nil. The book seems closed on 2012.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Brad Lidge, who gave it one last shot and failed and didn’t keep trying. Sometimes, when you lose your stuff, its gone and gone fast. I’ll readily admit I thought the signing was a great one when it occurred but it just didn’t work out. I really hoped that Lidge would be a serviceable 7th inning guy and mentor to Drew Storen and Tyler Clippard, being one of the great closers of his day. It didn’t work out that way: the Nats released him on June 25th and he hung ’em up.

2011 (6 candidates)

Total Players used: 20 position, 24 pitchers, 44 total. 6/44 = 13.6% candidate ratio right now…

Candidates

Ivan Rodriguez – retired after 2011; will appear on the 2017 Hall-of-Fame Ballot with 1st ballot stats but a PED cloud over his head.
Matt Stairs — retired after 2011.
Alex Cora — retired after 2011, now the General Manager of a Puerto Rican Winter League team.
Cole Kimball — Nats 60-day DL in 2012, XST in 2013, DFA’d off 40-man roster. 2014 indy, NYY AA team. Threw 3.2 Innings of 14-ERA ball in the Mexican summer league in 2015. Does not seem to be on any 2016 rosters; may be done.
Brian Broderick — Stl AAA, waived now Nats AAA in 2012, AA in 2013. Indy ball 2014, Kansas City AAA 2015, where he had a pretty good season. He elected MLFA … and (oddly?) did not get picked up for 2016. May be done.
Atahualpa Severino — Nats AAA, DFA’d off 40-man in 2012, signed w/ KC for 2013, Atl AAA in 2014, LAA AAA in 2015 but he got cut and ended the year in the Mexican league. For 2016 he is again in the Mexican League, and had a strong season for Monterrey. Perhaps he gets another shot some-day. There’s always people looking for loogies.

Changes since the last post: none other than 2016 assignment updates; nobody’s gotten off this list in a while.

Outlook for 2011 Oblivion candidates: Just one guy still hanging on: Severino continues to throw albeit in his home country’s unaffiliated Mexican league.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Matt Stairs: He made the 2011 roster despite having almost no defensive capabilities and, as it soon became evident, almost no remaining abilities at the plate. He somehow hung onto his roster spot until August 1st despite having just one extra base hit in 74 at-bats on the year. I remember one game in particular; we were at the stadium going against the hated Phillies and they left Roy Halladay in to attempt to finish a shutout with a 3-0 lead (Game was on 4/13/11). Nats rally, score 2 runs to make it 3-2. Stairs comes up pinch hitting for Jerry Hairston with guys on 1st and 2nd with one out; he promptly watches three straight fastballs go right down the middle of the plate without moving his bat. I’ve never been so p*ssed at a player at the ball-park. Fellow Nats-to-Oblivion candidate Ivan Rodriguez then promptly struck out on 3 pitches as well, looking strike 3 into the mitt and then arguing vehemently with the ump over the game-ending call which gave Halladay the complete game victory. Those were the good ole days.

2010 (12 players)

Total Players used: 20 position, 26 pitchers, 46 total. 12/46 = 26.0% never appeared again

Players:

Kevin Mench; retired after 2010
Jamie Burke; retired after 2010
Luis Atilano: in CIN org, AAA in 2012, never signed for 2013, out of baseball.
Scott Olsen; in CWS org, AAA 2012, never signed for 2013, out of baseball.
Tyler Walker; indy league 2011, never signed for 2012, out of baseball.
Matt Chico; indy league 2012, never signed for 2013, out of baseball.
Garrett Mock: Houston AAA 2012, AZ AAA for 2013. Not signed for 2014
Jason Bergmann: indy 2011, Col AAA 2012, Indy again in 2013, KC AA. Not signed for 2014.
Jesse English; indy league 2011, 2012. Mexican League 2013, Indy ball 2014 but struggled, no 2015 stats.
Joe Bisenius; in Mexico 2011-12, Atl AA/AAA 2013, indy/mexican league 2014 but struggled, no 2015 stats.
Willy Taveras; played AAA for Col in 2011, retired prior to 2012, back with KC AAA 2013. Mexican league 2014, 2015, Indy ball in 2015. He re-signed with Pueblo in the Mexican league for 2016 and played a full season, hitting .325. He’s still playing in 2017.
JD Martin; in MIA org AAA 2012, in TB AAA 2013, in Korea 2014 but struggled, no 2015 stats. 2016 MLFA signing back with the team and re-making himself as a knuckleballer. However, in 2017 he spent most of the year in XST, got one appearance in the GCL and was released.

Changes since last post: none.

Outlook for 2010 Oblivion candidates: Two active players in the minors; Taveras and Martin. Martin may have run out of chances in 2017. Taveras may just be a Mexican leaguer now.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Jamie Burke: The 2009 Nats were so thin at Catcher by the end of the season that we literally bought a spare catcher in Burke from Seattle so we could have some coverage at the end of the season. Burke re-signed on for 2010 and appeared in exactly one MLB game. He was released after the season and retired.

2009 (9 players)

Total Players used: 25 position, 30 pitchers, 55 total. 9/55 = 16.3% never appeared again

Players:

Elijah Dukes: released and never picked up for 2010. Arrested in 2011, 2012, out of baseball.
Alex Cintron; playing in Mexico 2012, nothing in 2013
Jorge Padilla; in SD org, AAA in 2012, nothing in 2013
Ron Villone, AAA all of 2010, 2011 playing indy ball, retired prior to 2012. He was scheduled to appear on the 2015 Hall of Fame ballot but was removed for some reason. Remains a pitching coach for the Cubs organization.
Julian Tavarez; retired after getting DFA’d in July 2009
Mike Hinckley: Tor org in 2011, retired prior to 2012
Steven Shell; KC org in 2011, retired prior to 2012
Victor Garate; MIL org and Indy ball in 2012, Mexican league 2013, 2014. Went to Japan for 2015 and had a great season. Back on the continent and pitching in the Mexican League for 2016; had 10 starts for Saltillo and was released. May be done.
Zack Segovia; in Det org AA in 2012, Mexican league/Indy ball 2013, Mexican League 2014. Picked up with San Diego’s AAA for 2015 but got hit. Pitching in the Mexican League for 2016 and had decent numbers as a middle reliever, but was released in June.

Changes since last post: none.

Outlook for 2009 Oblivion candidates: Still a couple guys active here, both in the Mexican league. Not likely to see any changes going forward.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Ron Villone, who proved that a crafty lefty with a halfway decent fastball can have a long career in this game. He had 63 appearances at age 39 for the 2009 Nats and got re-signed for 2010. He didn’t make the team though, labored in Syracuse the whole season and was released. Despite being 41 years old, he headed to Indy ball for one last shot but washed out after just a few outings in 2011.

It wouldn’t be a retrospective on poor Nats players if we didn’t briefly talk about Elijah Dukes though. I think its safe to assume that he’s the only guy on this list that has served more time in jail than has played in the minor leagues, attempting to get back to the show.

2008 (8 players)

Total Players used: 25 position, 25 pitchers, 50 total. 8/50 = 16% never appeared again

Players:

Kory Casto; 2009 AAA, 2010 in Ariz AA, retired.
Dmitri Young: some rehab in low minors 2009, retired.
Rob Mackowiak: 2009: some indy, bounced around AAA, that’s it.
Johnny Estrada; quit after 2008 mid-season release.
Odalis Perez; refused his 2009 contract, never resigned (see below)
Levale Speigner; 2009 in Florida’s AA/AAA, then 2010 in Seattle AAA. done.
Ray King; retired after 2008
Chris Schroder; 2009, 2010 bounced around AAA with Oakland,Florida (now Miami).

Changes in last 12 months: none.

Outlook for 2008 Oblivion candidates: every remaining candidate is now out of baseball.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Odalis Perez, though I’m tempted to say either Mackowiak or Estrada, possibly the two worst FA signings of the whole Jim Bowden era (and that’s saying something). But nothing beats the Perez story. He was the Nats Opening Day Starter in 2008, and he was the first guy to get a start in the new Nationals Stadium. He pitched decently enough; in 30 starts he was 7-12 with a 4.34 ERA and a 99 ERA+ for a god-awful team. But apparently he got really pissed when the team only offered him a non-guaranteed Minor League deal for 2009. So he held out, the Nats said “fine with us” and released him, and nobody else picked him up. And he never played another game. I’m not sure if that was a sign that he was just that bad (not one team wanted to even give an opening day starter a look the subsequent year?), or if there was some sort of MLB general manager omerta that conspired against him. Either way, Perez never played again, not even in Winter Leagues as far as I could find. Sometimes a player has to swallow his pride, and Perez apparently could not.

2007 (12 players)

Total Players used: 21 position, 26 pitchers, 47 total. 12/47 = 25.5% never appeared again

Players:

Nook Logan; indy league 2008, 2010.
Robert Fick: Cut from the Padres in ST 2008, full year indy league 2009, retired.
D’Angelo Jimenez: AAA all of 2008, 2009. Mexican league and Indy league 2010-2012
Tony Batista: Wash AAA 2008, then released
Michael Restovich: 2008 in Japan, AAA 2009-2011, retired
Brandon Watson: AAA 2008-9, indy league 2011, retired.
Mike Bacsik: 2008 AAA, 2011 indy league, now a broadcaster.
Jason Simontacchi; 2008 indy league, 2010 again.
John Patterson; cut in ST 2008, immediately signed w/ Texas but never played again.
Ryan Wagner: AAA 2008-9, released and presumably retired.
Arnie Munoz; went to mexican league, retired > 2010
Chris Booker: AAA in 2008, then retired/released.

Changes in last 12 months: none

Outlook for 2007 Oblivion candidates: every remaining candidate is now out of baseball.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Mike Bacsik, who was destined to be a career 4-A guy before Washington picked him up and gave him 20 starts in 2007. Bacsik was on his 6th minor league organization when he arrived in Syracuse and pitched his way up to the major leagues. He was overmatched badly; he had a 5.11 ERA and just a 3.4 K/9 rate. But he did get his moment in the headlines by giving up Barry Bonds‘ 756th career homer one night in San Francisco in August. Contrary to accusations on the topic, I do not believe Bacsik “served up” the homer. If you check the play index, Bonds hit the 7th pitch of the at-bat in a 3-2 count for that homer. Bacsik didn’t purposely give up a homer on the 7th pitch of an at-bat; he just ran out of pitches to show Bonds that weren’t going to get pulverized.

A quick comment though on John Patterson: I remember being absolutely shocked at his release in 2008’s spring training. He was cut on 3/20/08, right in the middle of Spring Training with no warning and having just thrown his Grapefruit innings. He was healthy, recovered from surgery, ready to be the ace of that staff and start showing off the potential that he showed in 2005 (you know, when he 4-hit the Dodgers with 13 punch outs and posted the best Game-Score performance in Nats history). He signed a ML deal with Texas after his release by the Nats, but he couldn’t answer the call and never appeared again, getting released in mid May. I guess his third arm surgery in 7 years just left him unable to compete at any level and he hung ’em up.

2006 (20 players)

Total Players used: 28 position, 29 pitchers, 57 total. 20/57 = 35% never appeared again

Damian Jackson; dnp 2007, indy league 2008-9
Bernie Castro: AAA all of 2007, 8 then retired.
Alex Escobar: Wash minors 2007-8, then retired.
Brandon Harper: Wash AAA all of 2007, then released/retired.
Wiki Gonzalez: CWS AAA all of 2007, indy league 2008, retired.
Henry Mateo: AAA or Indy league 2007-2009, Mexican league from 2010-2013
George Lombard: AAA 2007-9, some indy league, retired.
Mike Vento: 2007 Wash AAA, indy league 2008, back with Syracuse 2009, retired.
Melvin Dorta; various minor leagues 2007-2010, indy league 2011, retired.
Luis Matos: AAA 2007, Mexican League 2008-2012. ? 2013 and done.
Pedro Astacio; retired after 2006
Felix Rodriguez: dnp 2007, indy league 2008-9, retired.
Zach Day: AAA 2007, briefly A+ 2008, retired.
Beltran Perez; wash minors AA/AAA 2007-8, released and never played again.
Joey Eischen; released off of Washington and retired.
Travis Hughes; AAA in 2007, played in Japan 2008, indy leagues 2009, 2011.
Ryan Drese: various minor leagues 2007-8, indy league 2009-2010, Baltimore AAA 2011, released/retired.
Kevin Gryboski: AAA 2007-2008, retired/released.
Brett Campbell: Wash AA 2007, released/retired.
Santiago Ramirez: Japan in 2007, Mexican league 2008, indy 2009, retired.

Changes in last 12 months: none

Outlook for 2006 Oblivion candidates: every remaining candidate is now out of baseball.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Joey Eischen, who bounced around the league in his 20s before settling in Montreal and moving south with the team. He was known to be a “character” in the clubhouse and to give good quotes to reporters (google “Joey Eischen quotes” and you’ll find some of his classics). By 2006 though the years had taken their toll on his shoulder; he had 19 walks in 14 2/3 innings through the end of May had blown his rotator cuff. The team put him on the 60 day D/L and called up Virginia-native Bill Bray. Eischen never got off that D/L; he was released in the off-season and never played again. He has been a pitching coach in the Colorado system since 2010.

2005 (16 players)

Total Players used: 30 position, 25 pitchers, 55 total. 16/55 = 29% never appeared again

Players:

Carlos Baerga; retired after 2005
Junior Spivey: bounced around AAA 2006-7, indy ball in 2009, retired.
Wil Cordero; released mid 2005, signed on with the NY Mets but never made it out of AAA. Retired after 2005.
Deivi Cruz; released after 2005, cut from St. Louis 2006 ST, played indy ball, retired.
Jeffrey Hammonds; retired in June 2005 mid-season.
J.J. Davis: Traded to Colorado as part of the Preston Wilson deal, sent to Colorado’s AAA, then released after the season and never played again.
Rick Short; Granted FA after the 2005 season to play in Japan, played there til 2009.
Kenny Kelly; AAA in 2006 and 2007, released and retired.
Keith Osik; a backup catcher, got 4 ABs in 2005, released and retired.
Tyrell Godwin; after just three MLB at-bats in 2005, spent all of 2006 and 2007 in AAA, released and retired.
T.J. Tucker; released after 2005, tried one year of indy ball in 2008, retired.
Joe Horgan; released after 2005, played one year of AAA with Florida, released, retired.
Matt White; AAA in 2006-7, Japan 2007-8, tried indy ball in 2010, hung ’em up.
C.J. Nitkowski; AAA in 2006, then went to Japan 2007-8, Korea 2009-10, back with the Mets AAA team in July 2012. Not signed for 2013. Was a blow-hard “I’m an ex baseball player and know more than you” Podcast host for Fox Sports with Rob Neyer until their cancellation. Made news in 2015 for his article on the Bryce Harper/Jonathan Papelbon where he quoted a number of anonymous MLBers who said that (paraphrasing) “Harper had it coming.”
Antonio Osuna: dnp in 2006, Mexican league 2007-9.
Tony Blanco; Nats minor leagues 2006-7, Colorado AA in 2008, in Japan from 2009-present. Hit 41 homers in 2013 for Yokohama but struggled in 2015, but got picked up by Orix and is on their 2016 roster. Not signed for 2017, may be done.

Changes in last 12 months: none

Outlook for 2005 Oblivion candidates: Tony Blanco is still playing in Japan, entering his 8th pro season there in 2016. But he has no 2017 assignment.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Rick Short, who got his MLB debut at the age of 32, after 11 very long seasons in the minors with many different teams. He got a couple of call-ups in June and July to provide cover, and then played out the string after a Sept 1 roster expansion call-up. In that off-season, he returned to Japan (where he’d played one full season prior), and played four more years in the Japanese League and retired in 2009.

Though it merits talking about a couple other guys here. Tony Blanco; he was a rule-5 draftee who the Nats carried the whole of 2005 so they could keep his rights. He was awful; he had a .177 batting average as the 25th guy off the bench. In 2006 he couldn’t even cut it in AA and played most of the year in High-A. After 2007 the Nats summarily released him from their minor league organization altogether. He found his calling though; he signed on in Japan in 2009 at age 27 and continues to play there today. You have to wonder if he may very well earn another MLB shot.

Jeffrey Hammonds was well known to Washington baseball fans by virtue of his pedigree with our northern neighbors in Baltimore; he was a 1st round draft pick in 1992 out of Stanford, broke in with the MLB team the following year and was a role player on the powerhouse Baltimore teams of the mid 1990s. He bounced around the league afterwards though, signing on with the newly relocated Washington franchise for the 2005 debut season but he hung ’em up after a slow start here. He was only 34 when he retired.

Written by Todd Boss

April 21st, 2017 at 1:05 pm

Posted in Nats in General

Tagged with aaron barrett, adam lind, aj cole, brian goodwin, bryce harper, casey janssen, chad tracy, chris marrero, clint robinson, cole kimball, craig stammen, dan uggla, danny espinosa, david carpenter, doug fister, drew storen, emmanuel burriss, enny romero, erik davis, felipe rivero, greg dobbs, jeff kobernus, jhonathan solano, jonathan papelbon, jose lobaton, kevin frandsen, lucas giolito, marc rzepczynski, mark melancon, mark zuckerman, mat latos, matt belisle, matt den dekker, matt grace, matt thornton, matt wieters, michael taylor, mike rizzo, nate mclouth, nate schierholz, pedro severino, rafael martin, rafael soriano, raudy read, reed johnson, reynaldo lopez, ryan mattheus, ryan zimmerman, sammy solis, scott hairston, sean burnett, spencer kieboom, taylor hill, taylor jordan, tony renda, trevor gott, tyler moore, wilmer difo, wilson ramos, xavier cedeno, yunesky maya, yusmerio petit

From Nats to Oblivion; Updated for 2015 season and 2016 Assignments

22 comments

Uggla will always have 13-12. Photo TV screenshot via natsenquirer.com

Note: this is a recurring post, and large chunks of the older material is recycled. I’ve updated the research for older players as needed, getting 2015 updates for everyone on this list still playing. See here for 2014’s version, 2013’s version, and 2012’s version of this post.

Even though I know most of this data is repeated from last year, I still find myself reading the whole way down just for a crazy trip down memory lane each time I do this post.

Background: many years ago (November 2010) Mark Zuckerman initially posted a fascinating analysis he titled “From Nats to Oblivion.” It chronicled the astoundingly high number of players that the early incarnations of the Nats were using who, once the Nats released them, never again appeared in a MLB game. I thought the analysis was so interesting that I kept up the same data and have been keeping it up-to-date with the whereabouts of Nats-to-Oblivion candidates ever since. So with apologies to Zuckerman for stealing his original idea, here’s an interesting visit to the Nats darker past.

It is nearly impossible for a team to field an entire year’s worth of players who will not fall into this “Oblivion” category. Every MLB team has guys playing out the string or near retirement, and every MLB team calls up guys through out the season from the minors who eventually show themselves as unable to compete on the MLB level and who never make it back. So a 0% oblivion measure isn’t a goal. The best this team has done is 4 players (the 2013 team). I don’t think the 2015 team will get that low.

For your reminiscing pleasure, here is the summary data updated to the 2014 team:

2015: 20 position, 24 pitcher, 44 total. 10/44 = 22.7% candidate ratio right now
2014: 22 position, 18 pitchers, 40 total. 5/40 = 12.5% candidate ratio right now
2013: 23 position, 21 pitchers, 44 total. 4/44 = 9% candidate ratio right now (thanks Natsochrist for the edit)
2012: 24 position, 19 pitchers, 43 total. 6/43 = 13.9% candidate ratio right now
2011: 20 position, 24 pitchers, 44 total. 6/44 = 13.6% candidate ratio
2010: 20 position, 26 pitchers, 46 total. 12/46 = 26.0% never appeared again
2009: 25 position, 30 pitchers, 55 total. 9/55 = 16.3% never appeared again
2008: 25 position, 25 pitchers, 50 total. 8/50 = 16% never appeared again
2007: 21 position, 26 pitchers, 47 total. 12/47 = 25.5% never appeared again
2006: 28 position, 29 pitchers, 57 total. 20/57 = 35% never appeared again
2005: 30 position, 25 pitchers, 55 total. 16/55 = 29% never appeared again

Look at the 2006 season; 35% of the players who played for the team that year never played another Major League game. That’s still astounding to me. Read on for a detailed look back at some of the very bad players that have put in significant time for this team.

2015: (9 candidates right now):

Total players used: 20 position, 24 pitcher, 44 total. 19/44 = 20.4% candidate ratio right now.

Here’s my entirely too early list of Nats to Oblivion candidates from the 2015 Nats. Odds are that this list will be halved by June 1 of 2016 season. The candidates are listed from most likely to least likely to stay on this list.

Names recently removed: Fister (signed a $7M deal with Houston for 2016). Thornton (MLFA deal with San Diego and made 25-man roster). Burriss: signed MLFA with Philly and lead-off against the Nats in their first visit to Philadelphia in the new season. Added Stammen when he failed to make Cleveland’s 25-man roster in 2016. Removed Solis when he got called up to cover for injury to Belisle. Removed Martin when he got called up briefly on 6/27/16. Removed de los Santos when he got waived, picked up by Cincinnati and appeared for them mid Sept 2016. Removed all our 2015 prospect-types who all got 2016 call-ups: Turner, Difo, Severino, Grace, Cole.

Dan Uggla: The Nats were probably his last stand chance in the majors; hit just .183 and was given just 17 ABs the last two months of the season. Seems unlikely to pick up with a team in 2016 and may be done professionally.
Reed Johnson: Got picked back up on a MLFA deal by Washington thanks to his utility capabilities, especially since he did show he was recovered from his 2015 injury. But age is working against him, and the team signed several utility guys to 40-man deals, making it hard on Johnson to get back onto the roster. Johnson did not make the team out of spring and was released on 4/2/16. He did not pick up with anyone for 2016 and at age 39 may be retired.
Casey Janssen: Signed a ML deal with San Diego for 2016 but was released in late Spring Training. Picked up with Boston in June of 2016, pitched a bit for their Short-A and AAA teams then was released in early August 2016. At age 35, he may be done.
Taylor Jordan: passed on the depth chart by guys getting signed (Scherzer), acquired in trade (Ross), and guys just being in the right place at the right time (Roark). Just like he saw time in 2015 in brief spurts, he likely will again in 2016, but seems like a long shot to be a permanent part of this franchise’ rotation. In June of 2016, he had a second TJ surgery … and then was released by the club on 6/28/16 to correspond to the Giolito contract addition. Man, that seems kind of cold to release a guy just after surgery, but his odds of making it back to the majors just took a significant hit.
David Carpenter: shoulder injury, DFA’d, elected free agency and quickly signed a ML deal with Atlanta for 2016. However he was cut after just a handful of spring training games; maybe his injury is worse than we thought. Picked backup on a ML deal with the Los Angeles Angels in May 2016 (which makes sense since they’ve lost most of their pitchers). Was released from AAA Salt Lake in Mid June 2016 and did not pick back up. May be finished.
Taylor Hill: Hill was DFA’d to make room for January 2016 signings and was outrighted to AAA, so he faces longer odds to get back to the majors at this point. If it comes to it, would you rather go with Hill or the likes of Voth or Giolito at this point? Hill finished out the year for AAA Syracuse with a 4.60 ERA in 27 starts, but I’d have to say he’s just an innings-eater/org guy now.
Tyler Moore; hit just .203 in 2015 yet stayed on the active roster the whole year thanks to our ridiculous number of injuries. A DFA candidate who never has come close to his rookie year production and now has a career .228 BA in 649 PAs. Signed for 2016, but then waived, outrighted to AAA and traded to Atlanta towards the end of spring training. Moore missed most of the 2016 season for AAA Gwinnett with injury and did not appear in the majors.
Craig Stammen: non-tendered after injuring his arm and missing most of 2015; signed a ML deal with Cleveland in 2016 and did not make the team out of camp. Immediately sent to the AAA D/L list. He missed a couple of months, rehabbed in AA and spent the rest of the year for Cleveland’s AAA team in Columbus.
Aaron Barrett: the odds of him turning into Cole Kimball seems small; an elbow is not a shoulder. But until he recovers from his 2015 surgery, he’s an Oblivion candidate. He’ll sit on the 60-day D/L for most of 2016. In June of 2016, he had a major set-back in his TJ recovery, fracturing his elbow. This will require another visit to Dr. James Andrews and another surgery.

Note: the one guy DFA’d mid-season 2015 by the Nats (Xavier Cedeno) got purchased by the Dodgers, who then sold him to the Rays 5 days later … and he had 61 appearances with a 2.09 ERA for Tampa Bay this year. Do you think maybe the team gave up on him too soon?

Outlook for 2015 Oblivion candidates: Most of these guys seem like they have little shot of re-gaining a MLB spot; the first 5 guys are likely retired at this point, the next three (Hill, Moore, Stammen) are off 40-mans and not really pushing for a promotion with their AAA stats, and Barrett faces another year of elbow surgery recovery.

Favorite Nats to Oblivion Story: Dan Uggla. Uggla was released out of a $13M/year contract from Atlanta and the Nats picked him up for 2015, paying just a MLB minimum on him as middle infield cover/lottery ticket. Well, Uggla’s luck turned out pretty well as injuries shredded the Nats lineup and Uggla earned a 25-man roster spot. He played sparingly throughout April but had a massive homer in the epic April 28th come-from-behind 13-12 win over Atlanta, which sparked the Nats (who were just 7-13 at the time) to a 21-6 run. It was one of just two homers Uggla hit on the year (the other in the last game of the season/his career), and Uggla played less and less as the team got healthier. For the year he hit just .183, which was in line with what he had hit the prior to years, and he never got picked up after his “last hurrah” season. Uggla never seemed to recover from two separate concussions he suffered from HBPs (one in July 2012, another in ST 2013), never again hitting even the meager .220 he managed in 2012.

2014 (5 remaining candidates right now):

Total Players used: 22 position, 18 pitchers, 40 total. 5/40 = 12.5% candidate ratio right now

Candidates:

Greg Dobbs: FA after 2014, retired in May 2015 when he didn’t catch on with a new club.
Nate McLouth, who signed an ill-advised 2-year deal to be our “veteran 4th outfielder” behind Denard Span … but who struggled in 2014 and then missed the entirety of 2015. The team bought out his 2016 option and as of this writing has not signed with a new team (not even a minor league deal). May have played his way out of the game. (Thanks to Karl in the comments for the reminder on McLouth).
Jeff Kobernus: Released by the team Mar 2015, played the rest of 2015 with SF’s A+ club in San Jose, MLFA for 2016. He never signed with anyone in 2016 and may be finished.
Scott Hairston: FA after 2014, sat out 2015. Signed for Chicago White Sox for 2016, but then was cut on 3/29/16. He did not pick back up with anyone for 2016, and at age 36 could be forced into retirement.
Nate Schierholtz: FA after 2014, signed w/ Texas but did not stay with club out of spring training. Played 2015 in Japan, then signed as a MLFA with Detroit in Dec 2015. Starting in AAA for Detroit 2016 but not a 40-man player. Subsequently released on 5/23/16 after hitting .246, did not pick back up for the rest of 2016. He’s only 32, so he may still give it a shot in 2017.

Names removed since the last post: Kevin Frandsen (signed w/ SFG and appeared in 7 games in 2015), Ryan Mattheus (got one game with LAA, waived, then pitched the whole of 2015 in Cincinnati’s bullpen), Rafael Soriano (who finally signed with the Cubs in June but had just 6 appearances before getting released on 9/4/15, and Taylor Hill (who had 12IP across 6 games for the Nats in 2015). Added Nate McLouth after Karl noticed he was missing in the comments.

Outlook for 2014 Oblivion candidates: after a rough 2016 for all these players, only Schierholz really seems like he has a shot at even a ST invite for 2017. The rest are likely done.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: I’ll go with Kobernus at this point, if only because he went to my dad’s Alma Mater (Cal-Berkeley) at a time where the program was threatened with the Axe (eventually donations resurrected the program in 2011). He’s an example of an odd fascination the Nats seem to have with good field-no hit upper round draft picks from Cal (see also Renda, Tony).

2013 (4 Candidates):

Total Players used: 23 position, 21 pitchers, 44 total. 4/44 = 9% candidate ratio right now (thanks Natsochrist for the edit)

Current Candidates

Chad Tracy: MLFA signed w/ LA Angels for spring 2014, cut, retired 4/25/14.
Yunesky Maya; MLFA with Atlanta AAA for 2014, then went to Korea where he got pounded for two seasons. Just signed a MLFA deal with Los Angeles Angels for 2016 and is pitching for AAA Salt Lake. He strained his elbow and missed a big chunk of the 2016 season, which was a missed opportunity for Maya as the Angels had very little SP depth.
Chris Marrero: MLFA, signed w/ Baltimore AAA 2014, played briefly for the White Sox’s AAA affiliate in 2015. He’s still out there, playing in the 2015 Venezuelan winter league. Signed back with Boston’s AAA affiliate for 2016. He had a strong 2016 season for Pawtucket, hitting 23 homers but did not get called up.
Erik Davis; Nats AAA 2014 60 day D/L Tommy John surgery 2014, still on Nats D/L 2015. Outrighted off the 40-man in January 2016, assigned to AAA. Posted a 4.13 ERA in a full year of middle relief for Syracuse, with excellent K/9 ratios, but did not merit a 9/1 call up.

Updates since last post: removed Jhonatan Solano went 1-20 for Miami in 2015 and may be a “Marlins to Oblivion” candidate going forward.

Outlook for 2013 Oblivion candidates: The 4 remaining guys face uphill climbs; only Davis remains with the Nationals but none are on 40-man rosters. Maya and Marrero are hanging on though and may get shots based on decent 2016 seasons in AAA.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Yunesky Maya, who was Mike Rizzo‘s first foray into the Cuban exile market. Signed to a 4yr/$8M deal, he was given several shots at the majors and never could capitalize. He arrived in the US with a wide arsenal of pitches but not a lot of swing-and-miss talent, and he ended up basically being a AAA starter. He spent the last three seasons as Syracuse’s lead starter (getting 22, 28 and 24 starts there in-between infrequent call-ups) and ended up with just one career MLB win for his $8M salary (making his one of the worst dollars-per-win contracts ever … even if it was “just” $8M). This whole paragraph is assuming that Maya never makes it back to the majors … but based on what he’s shown thus far combined with his advancing age, that seems like a likely end-result for the Cuban starter. As we speak, he has given up on minor league ball and has decamped for Korea, where he’s shown some good stats in limited appearances.

2012 (6 candidates)

Total Players used: 24 position, 19 pitchers, 43 total. 6/43 = 13.9% candidate ratio right now

Candidates

Brad Lidge: Retired post 2012.
Christian Garcia: got added to the 40-man roster down the stretch of 2012 and provided some electric relief out of the pen, even making the playoff roster. Got hurt in ST 2013, went to the 60-day D/L, still hurt in 2014, and released in June of that year. Garcia never had bad stats … just too many injuries that he couldn’t overcome. (Thanks to commenter Justin for this reminder!)
Ryan Perry: Wash AAA/AA 2013, 2014, released by Washington in 2014, signed back with Detroit and played 2014-2015 with their AAA affiliate. Released mid 2015 by Toledo and never signed on again for 2015 or 2016; may be done.
Jesus Flores; signed ML deal with Los Angeles Dodgers for 2013, was with TB, KC for 2014, Miami AAA for 2015, but was released in July 2015 and never re-signed. Played Winter Ball 2015 never signed for 2016; may be done.
Brett Carroll: signed ML deal w/ Pittsburgh for 2013, Tor for 2014. Never signed for 2015, looks done.
Carlos Maldonado: Wash AAA 2013. Played Venezuelan Winter Ball for a number of years, then after no US-based organized ball for 2 seasons signed a ML deal with Texas in 2015 …and made their AA team as a 37-yr old. Still plugging away. In 2016 Maldonado again was assigned to Frisco, but was immediately put on the D/L and never appeared. In fact, he doesn’t even have a minor league at bat since 2013; is he just on a roster to serve as a bullpen catcher?

Updates in last 12 months: Updates for Maldonado, who I can’t believe is still playing in the bus leagues at age 37. Added Christian Garcia after Justin noticed he was missing in the comments.

Outlook for 2012 Oblivion candidates: Only Maldonado seems like he’s still technically “active,” but as a 38-yr old catcher who hasn’t even had an at-bat since 2013 the odds of him making it back are nil. The book seems closed on 2012.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Brad Lidge, who gave it one last shot and failed and didn’t keep trying. Sometimes, when you lose your stuff, its gone and gone fast. I’ll readily admit I thought the signing was a great one when it occurred but it just didn’t work out. I really hoped that Lidge would be a serviceable 7th inning guy and mentor to Drew Storen and Tyler Clippard, being one of the great closers of his day. It didn’t work out that way: the Nats released him on June 25th and he hung ’em up.

2011 (6 candidates)

Total Players used: 20 position, 24 pitchers, 44 total. 6/44 = 13.6% candidate ratio right now…

Candidates

Ivan Rodriguez – retired after 2011; will appear on the 2017 Hall-of-Fame Ballot with 1st ballot stats but a PED cloud over his head.
Matt Stairs — retired after 2011.
Alex Cora — retired after 2011, now the General Manager of a Puerto Rican Winter League team.
Cole Kimball — Nats 60-day DL in 2012, XST in 2013, DFA’d off 40-man roster. 2014 indy, NYY AA team. Threw 3.2 Innings of 14-ERA ball in the Mexican summer league in 2015. Does not seem to be on any 2016 rosters; may be done.
Brian Broderick — Stl AAA, waived now Nats AAA in 2012, AA in 2013. Indy ball 2014, Kansas City AAA 2015, where he had a pretty good season. He elected MLFA … and (oddly?) did not get picked up for 2016. May be done.
Atahualpa Severino — Nats AAA, DFA’d off 40-man in 2012, signed w/ KC for 2013, Atl AAA in 2014, LAA AAA in 2015 but he got cut and ended the year in the Mexican league. For 2016 he is again in the Mexican League, and had a strong season for Monterrey. Perhaps he gets another shot some-day. There’s always people looking for loogies.

Changes in the last 12 months: none other than 2016 assignment updates; nobody’s gotten off this list in a while.

Outlook for 2011 Oblivion candidates: Just one guy still hanging on: Severino continues to throw albeit in his home country’s unaffiliated Mexican league.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Matt Stairs: He made the 2011 roster despite having almost no defensive capabilities and, as it soon became evident, almost no remaining abilities at the plate. He somehow hung onto his roster spot until August 1st despite having just one extra base hit in 74 at-bats on the year. I remember one game in particular; we were at the stadium going against the hated Phillies and they left Roy Halladay in to attempt to finish a shutout with a 3-0 lead (Game was on 4/13/11). Nats rally, score 2 runs to make it 3-2. Stairs comes up pinch hitting for Jerry Hairston with guys on 1st and 2nd with one out; he promptly watches three straight fastballs go right down the middle of the plate without moving his bat. I’ve never been so p*ssed at a player at the ball-park. Fellow Nats-to-Oblivion candidate Ivan Rodriguez then promptly struck out on 3 pitches as well, looking strike 3 into the mitt and then arguing vehemently with the ump over the game-ending call which gave Halladay the complete game victory. Those were the good ole days.

2010 (12 players)

Total Players used: 20 position, 26 pitchers, 46 total. 12/46 = 26.0% never appeared again

Players:

Kevin Mench; retired after 2010
Jamie Burke; retired after 2010
Luis Atilano: in CIN org, AAA in 2012, never signed for 2013, out of baseball.
Scott Olsen; in CWS org, AAA 2012, never signed for 2013, out of baseball.
Tyler Walker; indy league 2011, never signed for 2012, out of baseball.
Matt Chico; indy league 2012, never signed for 2013, out of baseball.
Garrett Mock: Houston AAA 2012, AZ AAA for 2013. Not signed for 2014
Jason Bergmann: indy 2011, Col AAA 2012, Indy again in 2013, KC AA. Not signed for 2014.
Jesse English; indy league 2011, 2012. Mexican League 2013, Indy ball 2014 but struggled, no 2015 stats.
Joe Bisenius; in Mexico 2011-12, Atl AA/AAA 2013, indy/mexican league 2014 but struggled, no 2015 stats.
JD Martin; in MIA org AAA 2012, in TB AAA 2013, in Korea 2014 but struggled, no 2015 stats. 2016 MLFA signing back with the team and re-making himself as a knuckleballer. Why not right?
Willy Taveras; played AAA for Col in 2011, retired prior to 2012, back with KC AAA 2013. Mexican league 2014, 2015, Indy ball in 2015. He re-signed with Pueblo in the Mexican league for 2016 and played a full season, hitting .325.

Changes in last 12 months: none.

Outlook for 2010 Oblivion candidates: Two active players in the minors; Taveras and Martin. Martin seems likely to get another MLFA contract in 2017 to see if he can pan out as a knuckleballer.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Jamie Burke: The 2009 Nats were so thin at Catcher by the end of the season that we literally bought a spare catcher in Burke from Seattle so we could have some coverage at the end of the season. Burke re-signed on for 2010 and appeared in exactly one MLB game. He was released after the season and retired.

2009 (9 players)

Total Players used: 25 position, 30 pitchers, 55 total. 9/55 = 16.3% never appeared again

Players:

Elijah Dukes: released and never picked up for 2010. Arrested in 2011, 2012, out of baseball.
Alex Cintron; playing in Mexico 2012, nothing in 2013
Jorge Padilla; in SD org, AAA in 2012, nothing in 2013
Ron Villone, AAA all of 2010, 2011 playing indy ball, retired prior to 2012. He was scheduled to appear on the 2015 Hall of Fame ballot but was removed for some reason. Remains a pitching coach for the Cubs organization.
Julian Tavarez; retired after getting DFA’d in July 2009
Mike Hinckley: Tor org in 2011, retired prior to 2012
Steven Shell; KC org in 2011, retired prior to 2012
Victor Garate; MIL org and Indy ball in 2012, Mexican league 2013, 2014. Went to Japan for 2015 and had a great season. Back on the continent and pitching in the Mexican League for 2016; had 10 starts for Saltillo and was released. May be done.
Zack Segovia; in Det org AA in 2012, Mexican league/Indy ball 2013, Mexican League 2014. Picked up with San Diego’s AAA for 2015 but got hit. Pitching in the Mexican League for 2016 and had decent numbers as a middle reliever, but was released in June.

Changes in last 12 months: none.

Outlook for 2009 Oblivion candidates: Still a couple guys active here, both in the Mexican league. Not likely to see any changes going forward.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Ron Villone, who proved that a crafty lefty with a halfway decent fastball can have a long career in this game. He had 63 appearances at age 39 for the 2009 Nats and got re-signed for 2010. He didn’t make the team though, labored in Syracuse the whole season and was released. Despite being 41 years old, he headed to Indy ball for one last shot but washed out after just a few outings in 2011.

It wouldn’t be a retrospective on poor Nats players if we didn’t briefly talk about Elijah Dukes though. I think its safe to assume that he’s the only guy on this list that has served more time in jail than has played in the minor leagues, attempting to get back to the show.

2008 (8 players)

Total Players used: 25 position, 25 pitchers, 50 total. 8/50 = 16% never appeared again

Players:

Kory Casto; 2009 AAA, 2010 in Ariz AA, retired.
Dmitri Young: some rehab in low minors 2009, retired.
Rob Mackowiak: 2009: some indy, bounced around AAA, that’s it.
Johnny Estrada; quit after 2008 mid-season release.
Odalis Perez; refused his 2009 contract, never resigned (see below)
Levale Speigner; 2009 in Florida’s AA/AAA, then 2010 in Seattle AAA. done.
Ray King; retired after 2008
Chris Schroder; 2009, 2010 bounced around AAA with Oakland,Florida (now Miami).

Changes in last 12 months: none.

Outlook for 2008 Oblivion candidates: every remaining candidate is now out of baseball.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Odalis Perez, though I’m tempted to say either Mackowiak or Estrada, possibly the two worst FA signings of the whole Jim Bowden era (and that’s saying something). But nothing beats the Perez story. He was the Nats Opening Day Starter in 2008, and he was the first guy to get a start in the new Nationals Stadium. He pitched decently enough; in 30 starts he was 7-12 with a 4.34 ERA and a 99 ERA+ for a god-awful team. But apparently he got really pissed when the team only offered him a non-guaranteed Minor League deal for 2009. So he held out, the Nats said “fine with us” and released him, and nobody else picked him up. And he never played another game. I’m not sure if that was a sign that he was just that bad (not one team wanted to even give an opening day starter a look the subsequent year?), or if there was some sort of MLB general manager omerta that conspired against him. Either way, Perez never played again, not even in Winter Leagues as far as I could find. Sometimes a player has to swallow his pride, and Perez apparently could not.

2007 (12 players)

Total Players used: 21 position, 26 pitchers, 47 total. 12/47 = 25.5% never appeared again

Players:

Nook Logan; indy league 2008, 2010.
Robert Fick: Cut from the Padres in ST 2008, full year indy league 2009, retired.
D’Angelo Jimenez: AAA all of 2008, 2009. Mexican league and Indy league 2010-2012
Tony Batista: Wash AAA 2008, then released
Michael Restovich: 2008 in Japan, AAA 2009-2011, retired
Brandon Watson: AAA 2008-9, indy league 2011, retired.
Mike Bacsik: 2008 AAA, 2011 indy league, now a broadcaster.
Jason Simontacchi; 2008 indy league, 2010 again.
John Patterson; cut in ST 2008, immediately signed w/ Texas but never played again.
Ryan Wagner: AAA 2008-9, released and presumably retired.
Arnie Munoz; went to mexican league, retired > 2010
Chris Booker: AAA in 2008, then retired/released.

Changes in last 12 months: none

Outlook for 2007 Oblivion candidates: every remaining candidate is now out of baseball.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Mike Bacsik, who was destined to be a career 4-A guy before Washington picked him up and gave him 20 starts in 2007. Bacsik was on his 6th minor league organization when he arrived in Syracuse and pitched his way up to the major leagues. He was overmatched badly; he had a 5.11 ERA and just a 3.4 K/9 rate. But he did get his moment in the headlines by giving up Barry Bonds‘ 756th career homer one night in San Francisco in August. Contrary to accusations on the topic, I do not believe Bacsik “served up” the homer. If you check the play index, Bonds hit the 7th pitch of the at-bat in a 3-2 count for that homer. Bacsik didn’t purposely give up a homer on the 7th pitch of an at-bat; he just ran out of pitches to show Bonds that weren’t going to get pulverized.

A quick comment though on John Patterson: I remember being absolutely shocked at his release in 2008’s spring training. He was cut on 3/20/08, right in the middle of Spring Training with no warning and having just thrown his Grapefruit innings. He was healthy, recovered from surgery, ready to be the ace of that staff and start showing off the potential that he showed in 2005 (you know, when he 4-hit the Dodgers with 13 punch outs and posted the best Game-Score performance in Nats history). He signed a ML deal with Texas after his release by the Nats, but he couldn’t answer the call and never appeared again, getting released in mid May. I guess his third arm surgery in 7 years just left him unable to compete at any level and he hung ’em up.

2006 (20 players)

Total Players used: 28 position, 29 pitchers, 57 total. 20/57 = 35% never appeared again

Damian Jackson; dnp 2007, indy league 2008-9
Bernie Castro: AAA all of 2007, 8 then retired.
Alex Escobar: Wash minors 2007-8, then retired.
Brandon Harper: Wash AAA all of 2007, then released/retired.
Wiki Gonzalez: CWS AAA all of 2007, indy league 2008, retired.
Henry Mateo: AAA or Indy league 2007-2009, Mexican league from 2010-2013
George Lombard: AAA 2007-9, some indy league, retired.
Mike Vento: 2007 Wash AAA, indy league 2008, back with Syracuse 2009, retired.
Melvin Dorta; various minor leagues 2007-2010, indy league 2011, retired.
Luis Matos: AAA 2007, Mexican League 2008-2012. ? 2013 and done.
Pedro Astacio; retired after 2006
Felix Rodriguez: dnp 2007, indy league 2008-9, retired.
Zach Day: AAA 2007, briefly A+ 2008, retired.
Beltran Perez; wash minors AA/AAA 2007-8, released and never played again.
Joey Eischen; released off of Washington and retired.
Travis Hughes; AAA in 2007, played in Japan 2008, indy leagues 2009, 2011.
Ryan Drese: various minor leagues 2007-8, indy league 2009-2010, Baltimore AAA 2011, released/retired.
Kevin Gryboski: AAA 2007-2008, retired/released.
Brett Campbell: Wash AA 2007, released/retired.
Santiago Ramirez: Japan in 2007, Mexican league 2008, indy 2009, retired.

Changes in last 12 months: none

Outlook for 2006 Oblivion candidates: every remaining candidate is now out of baseball.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Joey Eischen, who bounced around the league in his 20s before settling in Montreal and moving south with the team. He was known to be a “character” in the clubhouse and to give good quotes to reporters (google “Joey Eischen quotes” and you’ll find some of his classics). By 2006 though the years had taken their toll on his shoulder; he had 19 walks in 14 2/3 innings through the end of May had blown his rotator cuff. The team put him on the 60 day D/L and called up Virginia-native Bill Bray. Eischen never got off that D/L; he was released in the off-season and never played again. He has been a pitching coach in the Colorado system since 2010.

2005 (16 players)

Total Players used: 30 position, 25 pitchers, 55 total. 16/55 = 29% never appeared again

Players:

Carlos Baerga; retired after 2005
Junior Spivey: bounced around AAA 2006-7, indy ball in 2009, retired.
Wil Cordero; released mid 2005, signed on with the NY Mets but never made it out of AAA. Retired after 2005.
Deivi Cruz; released after 2005, cut from St. Louis 2006 ST, played indy ball, retired.
Jeffrey Hammonds; retired in June 2005 mid-season.
J.J. Davis: Traded to Colorado as part of the Preston Wilson deal, sent to Colorado’s AAA, then released after the season and never played again.
Rick Short; Granted FA after the 2005 season to play in Japan, played there til 2009.
Kenny Kelly; AAA in 2006 and 2007, released and retired.
Keith Osik; a backup catcher, got 4 ABs in 2005, released and retired.
Tyrell Godwin; after just three MLB at-bats in 2005, spent all of 2006 and 2007 in AAA, released and retired.
T.J. Tucker; released after 2005, tried one year of indy ball in 2008, retired.
Joe Horgan; released after 2005, played one year of AAA with Florida, released, retired.
Matt White; AAA in 2006-7, Japan 2007-8, tried indy ball in 2010, hung ’em up.
C.J. Nitkowski; AAA in 2006, then went to Japan 2007-8, Korea 2009-10, back with the Mets AAA team in July 2012. Not signed for 2013. Was a blow-hard “I’m an ex baseball player and know more than you” Podcast host for Fox Sports with Rob Neyer until their cancellation. Made news in 2015 for his article on the Bryce Harper/Jonathan Papelbon where he quoted a number of anonymous MLBers who said that (paraphrasing) “Harper had it coming.”
Antonio Osuna: dnp in 2006, Mexican league 2007-9.
Tony Blanco; Nats minor leagues 2006-7, Colorado AA in 2008, in Japan from 2009-present. Hit 41 homers in 2013 for Yokohama but struggled in 2015, but got picked up by Orix and is on their 2016 roster.

Changes in last 12 months: none

Outlook for 2005 Oblivion candidates: Tony Blanco is still playing in Japan, entering his 8th pro season there in 2016.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Rick Short, who got his MLB debut at the age of 32, after 11 very long seasons in the minors with many different teams. He got a couple of call-ups in June and July to provide cover, and then played out the string after a Sept 1 roster expansion call-up. In that off-season, he returned to Japan (where he’d played one full season prior), and played four more years in the Japanese League and retired in 2009.

Though it merits talking about a couple other guys here. Tony Blanco; he was a rule-5 draftee who the Nats carried the whole of 2005 so they could keep his rights. He was awful; he had a .177 batting average as the 25th guy off the bench. In 2006 he couldn’t even cut it in AA and played most of the year in High-A. After 2007 the Nats summarily released him from their minor league organization altogether. He found his calling though; he signed on in Japan in 2009 at age 27 and continues to play there today. You have to wonder if he may very well earn another MLB shot.

Jeffrey Hammonds was well known to Washington baseball fans by virtue of his pedigree with our northern neighbors in Baltimore; he was a 1st round draft pick in 1992 out of Stanford, broke in with the MLB team the following year and was a role player on the powerhouse Baltimore teams of the mid 1990s. He bounced around the league afterwards though, signing on with the newly relocated Washington franchise for the 2005 debut season but he hung ’em up after a slow start here. He was only 34 when he retired.

Written by Todd Boss

April 18th, 2016 at 10:36 am

Potomac/High-A Pitching Staff Year in Review; 2015

20 comments

Tyler Mapes is a great draft story and my pitcher of the year out of Potomac. Photo via nola.com

This is the 4th in the 2015 Pitching staff review series, here’s a review of Potomac/High-A’s pitching staff for 2015. Other parts of the 2015 series:

For some historical perspective, here’s 2013’s version (featuring Taylor Jordan), here’s 2012’s version (Nathan Karns the feature pitcher) and 2011’s version (Danny Rosenbaum the feature pitcher) of this post specifically for Potomac/High-A. Had we done this in 2014, we would likely have “featured” Gilberto Mendez for his good work closing.

Note; while its relatively easy to do reviews for the upper levels of the system, once we get lower we’re usually talking about a lot of short sample sizes. And i’m sure there’s people reading this who saw every pitcher on this post throw in 2015; by all means feel free to comment if you believe i’ve mis-characterized someone here. Of all the write-ups I expect readers here to have better opinions of Potomac players by virtue of actually seeing them week in/week out, so definitely pipe up.

All stats are courtesy of either milb.com’s Potomac 2015 Stats page or via Fangraph’s Potomac 2015 page. Also useful here are the Big Board and the Nats Draft Tracker since so many of these lower-minors guys are recent draftees. And here’s the Baseball America Minor League Free Agent (MLFA) tracker. And here’s a list of the official MLB MLFA declarations for 2015, though these are more useful for the AAA and AA squads frankly.

Potomac Pitching Staff movement throughout the year (* == lefty)

Opening Day rotation: Pivetta, Rauh, Schwartz, Suero, Spann*
End of Season Rotation: Mapes, Dickson, AWilliams, Spann*, Howell
End of Season spot starts/swingman: Dupra, Thomas*, Valdez
End of Season bullpen: Self, Walsh*, Johansen, Orlan*, MRodriguez
Mid-Season promotions: Dupra, Bacus, Suero, Pivetta, Mapes, Giolito, Purke*, Simms, Rauh, Roark
up-and-back: Mapes, Spann*, Dupra
down-and-back: Thomas*, Rauh
demotions: KPerez, Napoli*, Amlung, Orlan*
D/L: RPena, Turnbull*, Sylvestre*, Lopez
cut/released/FAs: Mirowski, Henke, Encarnacion, Schwartz (retired), CDavis

Potomac starters. The rotation started the season with Pivetta, Rauh, Schwartz, Suero, Spann*. 19 guys got starts in 2015. Here’s an overview of the starters used, starting with the original five starters, going all the way to the rehab spot starts.

Nick Pivetta was your opening day starter, and by the end of the season he had gotten promoted and traded. He earned his promotion, going 7-4 with a 2.29 ERA in 15 starts for Potomac. He was not as successful upon his promotion to AA, but that was still enough to catch the eye of Philadelphia and be the bounty for them ridding themselves of Jonathan Papelbon‘s ego and contract. If he was still with the team, he would have been the ‘featured” player above and not Mapes for his dominant season in High-A. Outlook for Next Season: Philadelphia’s AA team in Reading, where he gets to go against Harrisburg and all his old teammates a few times a year.
Brian Rauh threw 7 excellent High-A starts before getting promoted to AA, where he spent most of the year. See AA write-up for more. Outlook for Next season: AA rotation or bust.
Blake Schwartz had three High-A starts, struggled, and retired. After a fantastic 2013 season in Potomac, he just never could make the jump to AA and (not that I’ve ever talked to him or anything) perhaps got discouraged after not really progressing further up the chain. Outlook for Next season: retired, out of baseball
Wander Suero pitched pretty effectively for Potomac in the first half in a swingman role, getting 16 appearances and 5 starts and posting a 2.41 ERA, 1.20 whip, and a 3.27 FIP. Not much in the way of swing and miss though; 39/18 K/BB in 56 innings. After moving up, he struggled in AA but inched up his K/9 rate while focusing more on middle relief. No reason to think he can’t compete in AA in 2016, and is still relatively young (he turned 24 just after the season ended so he’ll still be 24 all next year). Outlook for Next season: AA bullpen, perhaps High-A bullpen again if he gets squeezed in a numbers game.
Matthew Spann bounced between High-A and AA all year, posting mid 4 ERAs in both places. See AA write-up for more. Outlook for Next season: AA rotation.
Reynaldo Lopez led the team in IP and starts for 2015, going 6-7 with a 4.09 ERA in 99 IP across 19 starts. His stats: 4.09 ERA, 1.22 whip, 2.95 FIP and 94/28 K/BB in those 99 innings, all as a 21-yr old. It isn’t hard to see why Lopez is highly ranked on “top 10” lists for Nats prospects; he more than held his own in High-A as one of the younger hurlers in the league. The team held him back in XST for a few weeks to keep innings off his arm. While most scouting reports think he’ll eventually end up in the bullpen (no third pitch, iffy mechanics, big arm), he’s obviously worth giving more chances to stick as a high-velocity starter (in the same vein as Yordano Ventura for example). Outlook for Next season: AA rotation.
John Simms threw an excellent half season for Potomac before getting bumped up mid-season; see AA writeup for more. Outlook for Next season: AA rotation.
Lucas Giolito threw an dominant half season for Potomac (86 ks in 69 innings) after being kept in XST for the first 5 weeks of the season (so much for those pre-2015 interviews where he proclaimed that he had no innings limits, eh?) before also getting bumped up mid-season; see AA writeup for more. Outlook for Next season: AA rotation.
Austen Williams blitzed the Sally league and forced a promotion to Potomac mid-season, where he continued pitching well. In High-A he was 4-6 with a 2.59 ERA, 1.09 whip, 3.22 fip and 41/17 K/BB over 63 high-A innings. The 2014 draftee is looking like a nice little find. There does seem to be a bit of fortuitousness in his numbers (.253 BABIP and a delta between his ERA and FIP), so I could see the log-jam in the AA projected rotation keeping Williams back in Potomac for the first half of the 2016 season. Outlook for Next season: High-A rotation to start with an eye on quick promotion.
Philips Valdez dominated the Sally league and earned a promotion after two months. In Potomac he bounced in and out of the rotation, getting 10 starts across 22 appearances and posting a 3.77 ERA in High-A. Other numbers: 1.44 whip, 3.26 fip, 48/25 K/BB in 59 High-A innings. Valdez has been around for a while; this was his *seventh* season in the Nats organization. He just turned 24. But he has relatively few innings on his arm; just 260 IP across those seven seasons (he missed the entirety of 2012). He’s looking like he could be a low-profile decent starter going forward, though he may run out of time in the system before the team is faced with a tougher decision on how to keep him. For now, I think he repeats High-A to start, is tried out as a full time starter, and we’ll see if he can push forward to AA in 2016. Outlook for Next season: High-A rotation
Tyler Mapes so far is a pretty good 2014 draft success story; he was a 30th round *senior sign* out of Tulane who was basically unhittable in Short-A last year, threw 6 clean innings in Low-A and was bumped up to High-A (the first 2014 draftee to get promoted that high) after just a couple of weeks. Once in Potomac, he continued to pitch well in a swing-man role; 30 appearances, 8 starts, a 2.38 ERA across 90 innings, 1.22 whip, 2.78 FIP and 75/17 K/BB over 96 innings in High-A. Not too shabby. If it were me, I’d push him right to AA and stick him in the rotation, but as noted before I’m projecting an awful lot of starters to be in that Harrisburg rotation right now. I’m curious to see how things shake out for someone like Mapes; he didn’t last to the 30th round as a favor to the Nats; is there something limiting in his capabilities that will cause him to suddenly top out like a lot of late-round senior signs? We’ll see. Outlook for Next season: AA rotation.
Ian Dickson was hurt the first half of the season and finished 2015 the exact same place he finished 2014: in the Potomac rotation with decent to effective numbers. 2015 totals for Dickson: 3-3, 3.60 ERA in 12 appearances/8 starts. We see a problem though: 31 ks and 39 (?!) walks in 40 innings in Potomac this year. Wow; that’s a walk an inning. He never saw this kind of walk rate before, so hopefully its just a remnant of whatever injury kept him out the first half of the year. Nonetheless, he seems like he’ll be back in Potomac a third year until he can solve his walk rate issues. Outlook for Next season: High-A rotation.
Dakota Bacus began the season in Potomac, had 5 starts and 8 appearances and got bumped quickly to Harrisburg, where he played most of the season. See AA write-up for more.
Jeff Howell is a pretty interesting player. He’s a career minor league backup catcher, having toiled in the lower minor leagues since 2005. He signed on with Washington in 2012 and hung around as a backup between the levels for a couple of years. Then suddenly, at the age of 32, he decided to try his hand on the mound. Perhaps he was inspired by other Catchers-turned-Hurlers like Jason Motte. He (presumably) hung out in XST for most of the season learning how to pitch, then threw a couple of games in the Rookie league, then for Hagerstown, then finally for Potomac at season’s end. He struggled once he got to Potomac, giving up 9 runs in 13 innings but more importantly walking 17 guys while he was there. He’s now a MLFA and one may think that he’d re-up with Washington since we’re the ones who gave him a shot. We’ll see how the off-season goes. He may choose to pitch elsewhere where he can be guaranteed a rotation spot (a tough one in our system, since we’re completely overloaded with arms from pitching-heavy drafts over the past few years). Outlook for Next season: continuing his conversion to pitcher in another organization.
Others who got starts in Potomac for 2015:
- Matt Purke got three brief starts in Potomac before settling in Harrisburg for the year; see AA write-up for more.
- Rehab starts for Potomac in 2015: Barrett, Roark, Janssen and Carpenter (though technically Roark’s were not rehab but “stretching out” starts).

Potomac Relievers: taking a look at the relief corps. We’ll organize relievers by going by IP from most to least. Anyone with less than 10 IP will get cursory analysis at the end.

Justin Thomas was the bullpen leader in IP for Potomac in 2015, throwing 57 innings across 28 games, posting a 3.43 ERA, 1.21 whip, a 2.84 FIP and getting 50/18 K/BB in those 57 innings. He’s a lefty but was used more as a long-man, not being limited to just short stints. He’s looking great considering his limited draft pedigree (senior sign out of a small college in the 21st round) and I see no reason not to keep bumping him up the chain. Outlook for Next season: AA rotation.
Jake Johanssen was 1-7 with a 5.44 ERA, 1.81 whip, 4.69 fip with 48/27 K/BB in 48 relief innings for Potomac. Johanssen was our top draft pick in 2013, has already been “demoted” from a starter to the pen, and now seemingly can’t perform in a relief role either. Where do you go from here with him? You and I know that his large bonus is a “sunk cost” and shouldn’t dictate his usage, but teams don’t seem to see it that way. Just look at how long the Nats kept Brett Mooneyham around after it became clear he wasn’t capable of performing, even at lower levels of the minors? I see Johanssen repeating High-A and trying to get his career back on track. Outlook for Next season: High-A bullpen.
Derek Self seems to be taking a step back in his career; after posting a 1.69 ERA through half a season in Potomac last year, he more than earned a promotion up to AA where he more than held his own. However after just 14 innings in AA this year, he got dumped back to Potomac, thus repeating High-A for the third straight year. He was solid again; a 4/1 K/BB ratio in middle relief, but where is his Nats career going at this point? Obviously he needs to be in the AA bullpen next year, but you could have also said that last year and it didn’t work out. There’s going to be a lot of AA bullpen competition; if he gets squeezed out does he get cut in 2016? we’ll see. Outlook for Next season: AA bullpen competition/Release Candidate.
Brian Dupra is in a similar boat as Derek Self; he’s now 27 and spent most of his third successive year in Potomac. He was promoted mid-season to AA but didn’t last long after getting hit hard. Final Potomac stats for 2015: 2.79 ERA in 42 mostly later bullpen innings. I think he’s going to be in a similar situation as Self this coming spring; if he cannot cut it at AA (and there’s plenty of competition for that bullpen), he may get cut loose entirely. Not that it should matter, but it should be noted that Dupra was a senior sign for limited bonus money out of Notre Dame in 2011, so it could be a “make the team or get cut” situation. Outlook for Next season: AA bullpen competition/Release candidate.
Cody Davis was struggling early in the season, with a decent ERA but ugly peripherals (4.55 fip, 10/15 K/BB in 21 ip) and was released towards the end of June as upwards player movement started to need bullpen spots. The undrafted MLFA signing from 2011 played parts of 5 seasons for the system but seemed to fall apart this year as he repeated High-A. It does not look like he picked up anywhere and may be done. Outlook for Next season: out of baseball.
Manny Rodriguez only threw 21 innings between two different D/L stints this year, and then was released soon after the end of the season. It seems that the team believed he never recovered from the injury that cost him two full seasons early in his minor league career. Outlook for Next season: out of baseball.
Jake Walsh threw 17 scoreless innings as a late-inning/closer in Low-A before getting bumped up to High-A in July. From there out he posted a 3.66 ERA in 19.2 innings across 9 appearances with a 19/10 K/BB ratio. There’s something odd going on with Walsh; why was he even in Low-A to start 2015? He posted a sub-2.00 ERA across low- and high-A LAST YEAR, yet didn’t start in Potomac nor get considered for the AA rotation despite being a senior sign in 2013. He now holds a CAREER 1.65 ERA and seems to me to more than have earned a shot at a look at a higher level. Outlook for Next season: AA bullpen.
Kevin Perez spent the 2nd half of the year in Hagerstown after struggling early on in Potomac: see Low-A write-up for more.
Robert Orlan spent most of the season in Hagerstown but posted a 2.20 ERA in Potomac in 16.1 August innings: see Low-A write-up for more.
Justin Amlung, similarly to Orlan above, spent most of the season in Hagerstown but posted an excellent 1.84 ERA in Potomac in 14.2 July and August innings: see Low-A write-up for more.
Other Relievers of note who had less than 10 IP for Potomac this year:
- David Napoli had 8 IP for Potomac before getting demoted to Hagerstown: see Low-A write-up for more.
- Matt Purke threw 7 IP for Potomac during his tour of the Nats farm system in 2015: see AA write-up for more.
- Erik Davis threw 3 re-hab IP in 2015; see AA write-up for more.
- Tanner Roark threw one 4Ip start during his “stretch out” minor league stint; see MLB write-up for more.
- Brenden Webb, normally an Outfielder, threw a 3Ip mop-up game (really? they couldn’t find ONE reliever out of the 32 guys who threw innings for Potomac this year?)
- MLBers Aaron Barrett, Casey Janssen and David Carpenter each had some re-hab innings; see MLB write-up for more.
- A few guys spent the entire year on the D/L: Ronald Pena, Kylin Turnbull, Hector Sylvestre: all are looking at repeating Potomac next year if/when healthy.

Summary

Potomac certainly saw a lot of churn in its pitching staff; 32 total pitchers used (19 different starters including rehab starts by relievers). Their leading IP was Lopez, who didn’t even hit 100 IP on the year. There were at least 6-7 arms who earned their promotions to AA mid-season, a great sign for the rising tide of pitching talent in the system. Lots of guys with ERAs that start with a “2” in the season-ending stats. It didn’t help Potomac in the standings; they finished both halves several games under .500 and out of the playoffs. This will create quite a competition for the AA staff next year: my projections at this point show at least 6-7 rotation candidates, 8-9 bullpen candidates and another 3-4 guys who are right at that age where they may be summarily cut if they don’t make the AA team in 2016. Harsh, but good for the Nats, who could use all the bullpen help they can get.

Written by Todd Boss

January 8th, 2016 at 8:41 am

Harrisburg/AA Pitching Staff Year in Review; 2015

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Voth was your unquestioned AA star pitcher in 2015. Photo via mlbdirt

After skipping the minor league pitching staff reviews in 2014 (that silly thing called work interfered), I’m back for 2015. I’ll be reviewing the six minor league levels and the major league levels going from high to low.

In this series, we have already published the 2015 MLB review and the 2015 AAA review.

For some AA review historical perspective, here’s 2013’s version (featuring Nathan Karns), here’s 2012’s version (featuring Danny Rosenbaum) and 2011’s version (featuring Brad Peacock) of this post specifically for Harrisburg/AA. In the missing 2014 post I likely would have “featured” either A.J. Cole or Matt Grace.

All stats are courtesy of either milb.com’s Harrisburg 2015 Stats page or via Fangraph’s Harrisburg 2015 Stats page. Also useful here are the Big Board and the Nats Draft Tracker. And here’s the Baseball America Minor League Free Agent (MLFA) tracker. And here’s a list of the official MLB MLFA declarations for 2015, though these are more useful for the AAA squad frankly.

Harrisburg Pitching Staff movement throughout the year (* == lefty)

Opening Day Rotation: Voth, Ross, Espino, Alderson, Swynenberg
End-of-Season Rotation: Bates, Voth, Rauh, Simms, Giolito
End of Season spot starts/swingman: Purke*
End of Season bullpen: Mendez, EDavis, Suero, Lee*, de los Santos, Demny
9/1 promotions: Bacus, Roark
Mid-Season promotions: Swynenberg, Espino, Ross, Demny, Simmons, Solis*, Bleier*, Runion, Harper*
up-and-back: de los Santos
down-and-back: Spann*
demotions: Self, Dupra, Mapes, Amlung
dl/TIL: Benincasa, Alderson
cut/released/FAs/traded: Sisk, Ambriz, Pivetta (traded)

Harrisburg starters. The rotation started the season with Voth, Ross, Espino, Alderson, Swynenberg. Here’s an overview of the starters used, starting with the original five starters.

Austin Voth not only was the opening day starter, he led the team in IP and in starts. He posted a 6-7 record with a 2.92 ERA, 1.11 whip, 3.07 fip and had a 148/40 K/BB ratio in 157.1 innings. Nobody else had more than 15 starts on the year for the Senators, meaning Voth was the unquestioned leader of this pitching staff all year. He proved that his precipitous rise in 2014 was no fluke by posting solid numbers. Thanks to a glut of starters above him, I can’t quite see him breaking into the MLB rotation (ala Jordan Zimmermann, who jumped straight from a solid AA season to the majors), but I can see him jumping ahead of some of the AAA starter-in-waiting guys (Cole, Jordan, Hill) if/when the opportunity arises to provide injury cover in the majors. Outlook for Next season: AAA rotation and a MLB debut at some point in 20116.
Joe Ross threw 9 solid starts in AA before getting called up and solidifying his place in the 2016 MLB rotation; see the MLB write-up for more. Outlook for Next season: Nats #4 starter.
Paolo Espino threw seven decent starts in AA before getting plucked to move up, spending the rest of the season in AAA. See AAA write-up for more. Outlook for Next season: AAA rotation.
Tim Alderson had just 5 starts as a Feb 2015 MLFA signing before getting hurt and spending essentially the rest of the season on the D/L. He has already elected free agency. Outlook for Next season: in another organization.
Matt Swynenberg made just two AA starts, got bumped to AAA to provide cover and then apparently elected to retire, spending the rest of the season on Syracuse’s restricted list. See AAA write-up for more (though there’s not much more to tell). Outlook for Next season: retired
Colin Bates returned to Harrisburg for his second stint, converting more to a long-man/spot starter in 2015 than the pure reliever he was in 2014. Results are mixed: he was 6-6 with a 4.28 ERA in 111.1 innings across 28 games/15 starts. 1.37 whip, 4.25 fip. 62/29 K/BB in those 111 innings. A pretty low K/9 ratio for today’s power-heavy pitching game lends me to believe that Bates has reached his peak; I could see him pushed to the AAA bullpen or staying in AA bullpen again as a swingman based on the numbers, but either way he stands to play out 2016 as an org guy before hitting MLFA. Outlook for Next season: AA bullpen.
Richard Bleier gave AA 15 effective starts before getting pushed to the AAA rotation; See the AAA write-up for more. Outlook for next season: in AAA for another organization
Dakota Bacus started in Potomac but got bumped quickly to Harrisburg, where he played most of the season (he was a 9/1 call-up to AAA to provide a few days of bullpen cover). For Harrisburg he was 6-3 with a 3.51 ERA in 22 appearances and 11 starts. 1.29 whip in AA, 4.11 fip and a 53/29 K/BB in 89.2 AA innings. Not bad, not great. Bacus was the return for Kurt Suzuki trade in late 2013 and has steadily climbed the ladder; I can see him in the AAA bullpen next year. He’s still just 24 and we have a couple more years of control, so he could still have an impact. He’s survived one Rule-5 draft already; his goal in 2016 should be to put himself in a position to earn a 40-man spot. Outlook for Next season: AAA bullpen.
Matthew Spann bounced freely between High-A and AA this year, throwing slightly more innings in High-A but getting 10 starts in AA. In those 10 AA starts, he was 2-2 with a 4.66 ERA, 1.61 whip, 3.70 fip and had a 35/25 K/BB ratio in 56 innings. He ended the year where he began it; the High-A rotation. Spann was the return for David DeJesus and already has 6 minor league seasons in him, so he may have found his peak level. I could see him back in the mix for the AA rotation for one more season before hitting MLFA/getting released. The fact that he’s a lefty though gives him a bit more of a stay of execution; his lefty vs lefty numbers are a bit better than against righies, so perhaps he could convert to relief if need be. But he’s stuck as a starter for an awful long time; most guys wouldn’t last 6 seasons as a starter in the low-minors unless there was something there. Outlook for Next season: AA rotation.
Lucas Giolito had 8 starts for Harrisburg after a mid-season promotion from High-A. He was 4-2 with a 3.80 ERA in those 8 starts, with 1.37 whip, 3.18 fip and 45/17 K/BB in 47.1 AA innings. Gioloto took a bit of time to adjust to AA; 10 of the 20 earned runs he gave up (and 6 of his 11 walsk) in his 8 AA starts were in his first two appearances. It took him weeks to get a home start, and he only made two home starts during his AA season. Eventually he adjusted; throwing 7 innings of one-hit ball with 11 strikeouts in his home debut for Harrisburg. Giolito got hit; he certainly wasn’t as dominant in AA as he was in High-A, but he’s also just turned 21 and there’s no mistaking the potential in his arm. I think the team starts him in AA again, hoping for a 5-6 week earned promotion to AAA and perhaps a mid-to-late season call-up potential for 2016. Outlook for Next season: AA rotation to start.
John Simms earned his promotion from High-A to AA the same day as Giolito and also got 8 AA starts. His results were mixed: 2-3 with a 4.40 ERA, 1.42 whip, 3.82 fip and 34/15 K/BB in 45 AA innings. Simms showed more K/9 in AA than he did in High-A oddly, but wasn’t appreciably more hittable. This was his second stint in AA and improved slightly from his 2014 numbers (where he had 11 starts with a 5.03 ERA). Nonetheless, good progress for the 2013 11th rounder. Outlook for Next season: AA rotation.
Brian Rauh had an interesting tour of the Nats minor league affiliates in 2015, starting the season in Potomac, getting quickly promoted to Harrisburg, struggling, getting hurt, going to the D/L, doing a rehab assignment in Viera, then working his way back up the chain from Low- to High-A and ending the year back in the Harrisburg rotation. He proved twice he was too good for High-A, and proved twice why he may not be ready for AA. Total AA stats on the year: 8 starts, 4.83 ERA, 1.41 whip, 4.95 fip and 29/10 K/BB in 41 AA innings. 2016 is sink or swim time for Rauh in AA; he can’t go back to Potomac for the fourth straight year. Outlook for Next season: AA rotation or bust.
Matthew Purke had a whirlwind off-season, getting DFA’d off the 40-man roster but then quickly re-signed to a MLFA contract for the 2015. season to give it one last go for the former big-money bonus 2011 3rd rounder. He rose to AA where he pitched as a swing-man, getting 10 games and 5 starts, and did not impress. 6.29 ERA, 1.64 whip, 3.76 fip. 19/7 K/BB in 24 AA innings. His lower minors numbers were much better … but at this point in his age 25 season, he needs to be competing well at the higher levels. I think its clear that he’s not going to recover from his shoulder issues and it seems unlikely he’ll rise much above where he already has. He has already declared as a MLFA and has signed with the White Sox as a MLFA for 2016. Thus ends a long, drawn-out saga for a guy who I thought was a huge draft day coup for us. Outlook for Next season: AA in the White Sox organization.
Others who had a few starts for AA Harrisburg:
- Nick Pivetta had 3 AA starts after getting promoted from Potomac before getting flipped for Jonathan Papelbon: see High-A write-up for more.
- James Simmons threw a couple of spot starts in Harrisonburg, inbetween his regular reliever duties. See reliever section for more.
- Solis, Fister, Strasburg, Janssen and Roark each had one “start” during rehab assignments in Harrisburg; see MLB write-up for each.

Harrisburg Relievers: taking a look at the relief corps. We’ll organize relievers by going by IP from most to least. Anyone with less than 10 IP will get cursory analysis at the end.

Gilberto Mendez keeps moving on up the system, posting a 3.84 ERA in a full season (61 innings) as a middle reliever in AA. 1.38 whip, 3.51 fip and 52/17 K/BB in those 61 innings. Mendez’ numbers inflated somewhat dramatically from his last two years, his whip jumping from 0.94 to 1.38 with the jump to AA. His K/9 stayed impressive though. His BAA and BABIP look inflated so perhaps he had some bad luck going. He’s still young (turned 23 after the season), and he could be a middle relief option in the majors relatively soon. One thing I like about him is the way he keeps the ball on the ground: just one homer allowed in those 61 innings. I think the team starts him in AA bullpen again looking for a 5 week promotion to AAA where he can hone his craft against more advanced/mature hitters. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him in AAA, but right now the team has so many MLB-experienced arms that won’t make the 25-man roster that there might not be enough room in Syracuse for Mendez. Outlook for Next season: AA bullpen to start.
Abel de los Santos was a surprise callup in mid July, getting a premature add to the 40-man and a call-up so that he could throw to a handful of batters, then return back to AA. Perhaps not the best use of an option. Nonetheless, he was a 22yr old in AA holding his own (much like Mendez; in fact their birthday is just days apart in November). For the year in AA; 3.43 ERA in 57.2 innings, 1.13 ERA, 3.39 fip and 55/12 K/BB in those 57 innings as an 8th/9th inning guy (he had 8 saves in 11 opportunities). His numbers look similar to Mendez’s at first, but I think the team starts him in AAA since he’s on the 40-man, in order to get him some more experience against veteran hitters. Side note: that trade of Ross Detwiler looking pretty good now eh? de los Santos and new top10 prospect Chris Bostick for the OBE’d Detwiler, who didn’t last half the year before getting flat out released by Texas. Outlook for Next season: AAA bullpen.
Paul Demny started the year in AAA, got demoted after 10 innings and spent the rest of the season in Harrisonburg. He had fantastic numbers in AA this year; 1.88 ERA, 60 Ks in 48 innings splitting time as the closer with de los Santos. But its also his EIGHTH minor league season in the system. He’s already declared as a MLFA and you have to think he’s looking elsewhere at this point, given the fact that half the RH relievers between AA and AAA got callups last year and he didn’t. Outlook for Next season: with another organization.
Bryan Harper, forever to be known as Bryce’s older brother, had a pretty darn good season, posting a 3.02 ERA in 45 innings with decent peripherals (33/15 K/BB, 1.18 whip, held lefties to a .185 BAA). He earned a late-season call-up to AAA as well. He survived the Rule-5 draft but sits behind several other lefty relievers at this point, two of which are already slated for AAA (Grace and Solis). I could see him losing out on a numbers game and repeating AA in 2016, waiting for injuries to open up the log jam of lefty relievers in the organization. Outlook for Next season: AA bullpen.
James Simmons signed out of Indy ball and stuck with the Nats farm system for parts of two seasons, serving as a rubber-armed utility guy between AA and AAA both this year and last. Oddly, he was hurling for AA, got called up to AAA to make one spot start in July … and then was released soon after. His numbers weren’t great in 2014 but were improved in 2015, but as a 29-yr old now out of affiliated ball, it may be the end of the road for him. Outlook for Next season: out of baseball.
Erik Davis: returned from Tommy John surgery in 2014, got shelled in AAA and then was demoted to Harrisburg for the duration of the season. He was effective in AA (2.65 ERA in 34 ip) but you have to ask yourself; where does the team go with him? He’s now 29, still on the 40-man roster and doesn’t look like he made a full recovery in his first year back. Given that he was a marginal right-handed middle reliever to begin with, I wonder if he’s ever going to have an impact with this team. He still has a MLB option left (which he’ll use in 2016), but I have him as either option #1 or #2 to DFA if the team suddenly needs 40-man roster space. If he survives on the roster to 4/1/16, I can see him tried in AAA bullpen again. Outlook for Next season: AAA bullpen/release candidate. 1/6/16 update: Davis was DFA’d on the 40-man to make room for Daniel Murphy: we’ll update in this space when his roster status is finalized.
Nick Lee earned a mid-season promotion after closing effectively for Potomac and showed some organizational intrigue while in AA. While at Harrisburg he posted a 3.75 ERA with 29/19 K/BB in 24 innings. Lots of walks, but also lots of Ks especially for a lefty. On a whole, the team liked enough of what they saw to not only send him to the AFL but to also protect him on their 40-man roster. He seemingly slots in as a lefty specialist in 2016 but sits behind Solis and Grace. I think he starts in AA with an idea of moving up to AAA. Outlook for Next season: AA bullpen to start.
Hector Ambriz was signed in May, then released in June after getting hammered in 10 outings across four weeks. He remains unsigned. Outlook for Next season: out of baseball.
Other Relievers who got innings for AA/Harrisburg in 2015:
- Wander Suero: Pitched the first half of the season in High-A: see High-A writeup for more.
- Sam Runion: split time between AA and AAA; see AAA write-up for more.
- Derek Self started in AA but was demoted to High-A, where he spent most of the year. See High-A writeup for more.
- Sammy Solis: 13.1 IP in AA in-between assignments to AAA and MLB. See MLB write-up for more.
- Brian Dupra was up and down between Potomac and Harrisburg; See High-A writeup for more.
- Robert Benincasa threw four innings in April and spent the rest of the season on the D/L. A lost season. Outlook for Next season: AA bullpen again.
- David Carpenter appeared briefly for Harrisburg on a rehab stint; see MLB write-up for more.

Summary

20 guys got starts for Harrisburg in 2015, though the rotation as it were really was dominated by one crew for the first half, one crew in the second half. A lot of the guys who featured for Harrisburg in 2015 seem like good bets to return for at least the start of 2016 thanks to the log-jam above them. At some point though we’ll start to see movement through the system; a good number of these guys in AA need to move up or move on.

Written by Todd Boss

January 4th, 2016 at 12:54 pm

Nationals Arm Race Best Stories for 2015; Happy New Year!

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Here’s a quick recap of the year in stories on this blog, to tie a bow on 2015. From each month, I’ve grabbed a couple of the more interesting or unique posts I did, with thoughts and follow-on.

(Here’s 2014’s review and 2013’s review as well, to see how far we have or have not evolved…)

Jan 2015:

Holy Cow Scherzer! Nats make a statement by signing Scherzer for $210M; he does not disappoint with 2 no-hitters in his first season. We’ll conveniently forget his 6+ ERA during crunch time when the team was caught and surpassed in the standings by the eventual NL champion Mets.
Like the Janssen signing: Yeah; this one didn’t work out as well.

Feb 2015

Nationals Prospect Ranks historically: I reference this post more for one of my better accomplishments lately; turning all my historical prospect rankings into one big XLS. Here is that XLS in Google Drive, updated for the latest prospect rankings list I could find (BA’s year-end top 10 for the system).
Qualifying Offers: Are they working? (2015 edition): Answer: doesn’t seem so. And so far in this off-season, we’re seeing similar results.

Mar 2015

Brady Aiken has TJ surgery, shakes up draft boards: Aiken eventually goes 17th overall and loses millions versus where he was drafted the year prior. Hope he can come back from such an early TJ surgery.
Nats Outfield … what happens next? Big discussion once it became clear that both Span and Werth were not making the 2015 opening day lineup healthy.

Apr 2015

Forensicane’s campaign finally fulfilled; Rafael Martin called up & Cedeno axed : the title speaks for itself. Martin didn’t pitch much but certainly impressed with his debut. Cedeno’s DFA seemed deserved at the time, but he pitched very well for Tampa after catching on there.
Cole up … why not Roark?: My prophetic post predicting Cole’s meltdown in Atlanta … of course I couldn’t predict the Dan Uggla homer and 13-12 game, which I immediately put into …
Greatest (and worst) ever Nats games & Events; updated for 2014 events and April 2015 Atlanta game: I’ll be re-doing this post soon for all the stuff that happened the rest of 2015 and the weird off-season the team has had.

May 2015

2015 CWS Field of 64 announced; teams and analysis: one of many CWS posts, culminating in UVA winning in Omaha in late June.
DC/MD/VA District High School Tournament Report: 2015 post-season: May is Prep HS tournament time. June has a ton of College and College World Series posts. I know I don’t get a lot of comments on my HS and College coverage, but I enjoy following both and try to keep interest in local baseball alive. FWIW, the area may very well have a first round pick in 2016 in Oakton HS’ Joe Rizzo. More to come in February when I start up Prep baseball 2016 posts.

June 2015

First Look: Nats top 10 draftees from 2015 Rule-4 Draft: The culmination of the pre-draft work for the Nats; digging in and looking at who we’ll be following from a-far for the next few years.
2015 Draft Results: local player interest draft results. This post is the end result of months and months of work, digging into players with local ties in order to follow and eventually publish where they’re going.
Is Ross making the Nats re-think their future rotation strategy? Yes, I think its safe to say he did. Is Turner/Ross for Souza/Ott the best trade Rizzo has ever done?

July 2015

State of the Nats at the halfway point 2015: Where I was noticing that our offense was holding on by a thread but that we’d still win the division by 10 games. Yeah. Didn’t think the Mets would find the second coming of Babe Ruth in Yoenis Cespedes and they would catch fire they way they did.
Nats 2015 Draft Wrap-up: Nice wrap-up of the whole draft class.
Papelbon for Pivetta: good trade, bad karma? Another prophetic blog post title, eh?

Aug 2015

The Nats post-All Star game gauntlet of opposing Starting Pitchers: It was tough, and the team didn’t do very well against them. They went 6-10 to open the 2nd half and went from 2 games up to 2 games back … and never made it up.
Its make or break time; even more so than a week ago. Arbitrary endpoints, ranting about the Papelbon trade, ranting about the manager. Just a regular post about the 2015 Nats.
Why exactly did the Nats call up Turner?? A question I keep asking to this day.

Sept 2015

The Definition of Insanity… is apparently to keep watching the Nats play the Mets in September.
I said “Call me when they Sweep Atlanta” … 115 comments on this post from the viewers, the season high by a lot.

Oct 2015

GM for a day (or an off-season): what do you do to this team for 2016? A fun post to write. Some of it has even come true!
Rotation Reviews of your 2015 Playoff Teams & WC Picks: One of the reasons the October post output is way up; I did a bunch of prediction picks. None of which were right of course.
Chase Utley gets away with yet another dirty play; time to change the rules: F*ck Chase Utley, I hate that guy.
2015 Season Statistical Review of all Nats 2015 draft picks: A new feature I stumbled across that I’ll now make sure I find the time to do every year.
Welcome Bud Black: haha; i wish I could un-post 🙂

Nov 2015

My 2015 End-of-Season Awards Predictions: Only missed one BBWAA award this year.
Three take the QO; but some still rolling the dice: First time for everything. Murphy’s QO ends up costing the Nats their 17th overall pick.

Dec 2015

Operation Bullpen Makeover Status Report: So far, so good. Lots of new faces.
Nationals/MLB Pitching Staff Year in Review; 2015: First in a series that is still being written as we speak.
Murphy Signing: I guess I’m ok with it: A ringing endorsement!

Total posts for 2015 (including this one): 115. That’s down from 130 posts in 2014 and down significantly from 2013 (237 posts). Wow, how in the heck did I do 237 posts in 2013. That’s nearly a post for every weekday, all year. Including this post, i’ve published 923 total since the inception of the blog. When I hit 1000 i’ll do some cool retrospective or something. Should happen midway through 2016.

923 posts; that’s a lot of writing. I once calculated that a typical novel is between 90,000 and 100,000 words. Well, most of my posts are between 1000 and 2500 words … so that means I’m writing about a book every 50 posts. I’m in the wrong profession. Of course, i’m not sure who would ever read a book about some random IT guy’s musings about his local baseball team. 🙂

I feel like we have a solid group always commenting, no trolls. Very grateful for everyone who stops by and everyone who comments. I wonder how we can get more readers; should I do more publishing on twitter when I post? Probably. Now that natsinsider.com is gone, we may struggle to get the word out since Mark was my primary feeder site.

We generally have 20-30 comments on each post, which is cool. High comments on posts were 70 on a “Ladson Inbox”post in January 2015 and an astonishing 115 comments on the August “call me when we sweep Atlanta” post.

Happy New Year and thanks for reading in 2015.

Written by Todd Boss

December 30th, 2015 at 4:07 pm

Nationals/MLB Pitching Staff Year in Review; 2015

60 comments

Scherzer will always have his no-hitters from 2015. Photo via thesportsquotient.com

Here’s the first in a 7-part series where we delve into the pitching staffs from start to end, from the majors all the way to the GCL. We start with the rotations, review all the starters and then hit up the relievers. We try to predict as we go, which I’ll summarize at the end with a big “2016 predictions” piece.

Here’s 2013’s post and then 2012’s post. We never got to 2014 as I was switching jobs and this series takes a ton of time and I couldn’t do it.

All stats are courtesy of either Baseball-Reference page or via Fangraphs page. Also useful here are the Big Board and the Nats Draft Tracker as always.

Washington starters. The rotation at the beginning of the season was Scherzer, Zimmermann, Strasburg, Gonzalez, Fister. By the end of the season it was basically the same, with Roark replacing Ross who had replaced Fister.

Max Scherzer: 14-12 with a 2.79 ERA, 0.918 whip with 276/34 K/BB ratio in 228.2 IP (33 starts). Look at that K/BB ratio again: that’s more than 8 strikeouts for every walk for a power pitcher. His season also included two no-hitters (both of which easily could have been perfect games) and a one-hitter, and by one measure (Game Score) his season-ending 17-K no-hitter was nearly the best pitching 9-inning performance ever. If you needed another excuse to ignore W/L records, just look at Scherzer’s record on the year given his peripherals. But even given his season on a macro level, some were rather disappointed in Scherzer because in August, when the chips were down and this team collapsed, he was 0-3 with a 6.43 ERA in 5 starts. Nonetheless, Scherzer more than earned his salary in 2015 and I see no reason not to expect similar results in 2016. Outlook for next season: 2nd straight opening day start.
Jordan Zimmermann: 13-10, 3.66 ERA, 1.205 whip with 164/39 K/BB over 201.2 IP (33 starts). His ERA was a point higher than in 2014, his WHIP was 10% higher and his FIP was inflated to a very un-Zimmermann 3.75 level. Not exactly the walk year season he was hoping for. Nonetheless, Zimmermann should make out like a bandit on the FA market, where he occupies the lead spot in the 2nd tier of FA pitchers and should do just fine. Unfortunately, it seems like his time in DC is up; we don’t know the size or length of the contract extension he turned down, but it seems obvious that the team didn’t give him what he and his advisers thought he deserved. He’ll be oft-mentioned in the coming weeks as he finds a new home and it’ll be a shame to see him go. Outlook for next season: pitching for another team: Signed with Detroit for 5yrs/$110M.
Stephen Strasburg: 11-7, 3.46 ERA, 1.107 whip with 155/26 K/BB in 127 IP (23 starts). His end-of-the-year numbers don’t look nearly as bad as the debacle that his season really was. He had a 6.55 ERA through his first 10 starts, then missed most of June and July with two separate D/L trips. Upon his return, he was awesome, dropping his season ERA from 5.16 to 3.46 thanks to 9 quality starts (out of 10) and 5 double-digit strikeout games. But, the damage was done; he was awesome down the stretch in a series of games that ended up being meaningless. On the bright side, the Nats likely save a few million dollars in their arbitration case. Lets just hope that whatever he finally figured out in Aug and Sept continues into next season. Outlook for next season: Nats #2 starter.
Gio Gonzalez: 11-8, 3.79 ERA, 1.423 whip with 169/69 K/BB in 175.2 IP (31 starts). Another year, another inconsistent season from our #4 starter. The team was 16-15 in his 31 starts, which makes sense since he had exactly 16 quality starts. I think at this point Gio is what he is: a decently valued 4th starter who earns his salary and puts up enough value to keep his spot. The Nats will ride his arm until his contract expires. Outlook for next season: Nats #4 starter.
Doug Fister: 5-7, 4.19 ERA, 1.398 whip with 63/24 K/BB in 103 IP (25 appearances, 15 starts). MLB’s most underrated starter over the past few years finally had father time catch up to him, going 4-7 with a 4.60 ERA in 15 starts before the team mercifully pulled the plug. His average fastball velocity has been dropping, but dropped precipitously this year (down to 86.1) and just was too hittable. To Fister’s credit, he accepted the move to the bullpen instead of taking the “easy” way out and claiming a D/L trip, and was effective in 17 relief innings to make his season ERA look a little more palatable. Nonetheless, it was not exactly the way the Nats drew things up. Fister faces an uncertain future; he went from being guaranteed a Qualifying Offer to maybe struggling to get a guaranteed offer. In the end, I can see perhaps a west coast team taking a flier on him as a 5th starter with a pillow contract for him to try to regain some value. Outlook for next season: Pitching elsewhere, hopefully as a 5th starter somewhere.
Joe Ross: 5-5, 3.64 ERA, 1.109 whip with 69/21 K/BB in 76.2 IP (16 appearances, 13 starts). Ross initially got called up to cover for Strasburg’s first injury, and was impressive enough to be the first man in line to replace the suddenly ineffective Fister. He got another 10 mostly effective starts, getting shut down in early September after two ineffective starts where he was uncharacteristically wild (9 of his 21 MLB walks were in his last 2 starts) as he reached a soft innings limit for the year. No complaints here; Ross quickly guaranteed his rotation spot for 2016 with his work during the summer and is making the trade where he was acquired looking even more lopsided. Outlook for next season: Nats #3 starter.
Tanner Roark: 4-7, 4.38 ERA with 70/26 K/BB in 111 IP (40 appearances, 12 starts). The Nats thanked Roark for his “found gold” 5-win 2014 season by acquiring Scherzer and pushing Roark to the all-important long-man/slop innings guy. Not exactly what Roark probably expected. He did get 5 starts covering for Strasburg in late May-early June but otherwise was yanked all over the place; sometimes being a one-inning middle reliever, then getting 3+ in a blowout loss, even getting higher leverage innings in the 8th and 9th (he even had a save in May). When Fister proved ineffective, the Nats didn’t give the slot to Roark like they should have, instead calling up Ross and leaving Roark pitching in relief (their reason was that he wasn’t stretched out). When it became clear Ross was going to run out of innings, they sent him back to Potomac briefly to “stretch out” and Roark finished the year in the rotation with 6 relatively ineffective starts. Not the year Roark wanted. There was an incredibly long-winded article in beyondtheboxscore.com that seemed to point at Roark’s position on the rubber as the cause of all his ills, but i put Roark’s struggles more simply: pitchers are creatures of habit and when you take a starter and suddenly tell him he’s a one inning reliever, you shouldn’t be surprised when he doesn’t immediately perform in that role. The question the Nats have to face is this: was 2014 a fluke? Do you pencil in Roark for the #5 starter in 2016 or do you try to acquire his replacement? Do you have an open competition between Roark and the slew of AAA arms for the spot? Personally, I’m a Roark believer and think he’ll be just fine if you install him in the rotation and let him work. Outlook for next season: Nats #5 starter.
Others who got 1-2 Spot Starts:
- Taylor Jordan: got one spot-start in early June, getting pounded by Toronto. He provided long-relief cover a few times here and there throughout the season but wasn’t used even after being called up 9/1 (perhaps an innings limit?). See AAA write-up for more.
- A.J. Cole got one spot start in late April, getting destroyed by Atlanta in the epic 13-12 game. I was highly critical of this particular call-up at the time, questioning why the start didn’t go to Roark at the time. Cole got two other mop-up games to make his ERA slightly less awful for the year, but raised serious questions as to his future. See AAA write-up for more.

Rotation summary: Scherzer was good but struggled when the chips were down. Zimmermann regressed, as did Gonzalez. Strasburg was either awful or hurt most of the season. Fister was abhorrent. Roark was wasted. Yet despite all that negativity surrounding our rotation, the Nats starters as a group were still ranked pretty highly : 3rd in fWAR, 7th in ERA, 4th in FIP. So, it was still a pretty good rotation but not nearly as good as we thought they’d be upon the Scherzer acquisition.

Washington relievers. On opening day the MLB bullpen was Storen, Treinen, Stammen, Thornton, Cedeno, Barrett, Roark. By the time it was over, the team had used no less than *20* relievers. Not exactly how they sketched it out in the off-season. Lets talk about all 20 guys; here they are ordered with closers first, then descending by IP. Anyone with less than 10 innings is relegated to the end with generally a shorter write-up.

Drew Storen was having a near-all Star calibre season closing, holding a 1.69 ERA with 46/9 K/BB over 37.1 IP and 29 saves. Then suddenly he was demoted thanks to the Papelbon acquisition. His numbers post 7/29/15: 7.13 ERA in 17 innings, which culminated with his 3-walk performance in the season-ending Mets loss in early September (his 5th blown save of the year). Two days later he slammed a locker on his thumb, broke it and was done for the season along with his team. We’ve argued this one to death; there are people who like to argue that players are machines and they are highly paid to do whatever the team asks of them. I maintain that this team has tried over and over to replace Storen thanks to a couple of poorly-timed games of ineffectiveness that just happened to occur in the two NLDS series this team has managed to reach, and the “layering” of Papelbon over top of him was the icing on the cake of his Nats career. I’m sure Storen wants out of town, and I’m sure he’ll be a classic “change of scenery” guy. Mike Rizzo needs to make it happen. Outlook for next season: Closing for another team.
Jonathan Papelbon was acquired in late July straight up for a relatively low-level prospect (Nick Pivetta), an indication of how desperate Philadelphia was to rid themselves of him. He pitched a grand total of 23.1 innings in two months, through little fault of his own clearly disrupted the karma of the bullpen, and entirely at fault on his own took offense to Bryce Harper‘s non-defense in the press of Papelbon’s over-reaction and subsequent plunking of Manny Machado in a game earlier in that week and decided that calling out one of the game’s premier hustlers for “not hustling” down the line on a routine pop-up was a good idea. Fast forward to the umpteenth unnecessary embarrassing moment for the franchise and perhaps the final nail in the coffin of the inexplicably unaware and dense manager Matt Williams. Fun fact: Papelbon bought a $2.9M house in Alexandria exactly one week before choking his teammate on national TV and getting suspended for the rest of the season. Good timing. I know that Harper has “reached out” to Papelbon and they’re all saying this is just ‘brothers fighting” and all that BS, but Rizzo has to be shopping him for whatever he can get for him, upto and including eating the entirety of his $11M 2016 salary. Many think he’s completely untradeable, but i’m guessing someone will take a flier on him. Outlook for next season: Closing for another team.
Blake Treinen was the busiest guy in the pen this year (outside of sometimes starter Roark that is), throwing 67.2 innings in 60 innings as mostly an 7th/8th inning guy. He had a 3.86 ERA, a 3.49 FIP, and a 1.389 whip, all incrementally worst in 2015 than the year before. 65/32 K/BB in those 67IP. Treinen features a mid to upper 90s sinking fastball that has so much movement that TV announcers sometimes think its a changeup, yet still has some really odd splits. Righties had just a .493 OPS against him on the year … while lefties teed off to the tune of a .934 OPS. Odd because you’d think that a guy who could throw a fastball that tails away from lefties like Treinen would be more successful. Another oddity; he had a 5.90 ERA at home and just a 2.33 ERA away. So basically, if he was facing a righty on the road, he’s your guy. He has limited his repertoire to just two pitches these days (2-seam sinker and a wipeout slider), and seems so far removed from having anything resembling a third pitch that any thoughts of returning to the bullpen seem long gone. Is Treinen just a ROOGY (right handed one out guy?) Do teams even have that? Maybe his goal for the off-season is to figure out some pitch that is effective against lefties. He also needs to work on his control; his walk rate of 4.3 per nine just won’t cut it for a higher leverage reliever. Outlook for next season: back in his 7th/8th inning role.
Felipe Rivero, 2.79 ERA, 2.64 FIP, 0.952 whip and 43/11 K/BB in 48.1 relief innings. Rivero was a revelation for the team this year, converting to relief for the first time in his career and really shining. He has some serious heat; max fastball of 99.8 and an average of 95.5 from the left side, but really was a two pitch pitcher this season; fastball and slider (fangraphs distinguishes his 4-seamer from his 2-seamer but the velocities are exactly the same; does he throw two different, distinct fastballs?) Unlike Treinen, Rivero got righties and lefties out at equal clips (.200 BAA for righties, .198 for lefties) and really came into his own in the bullpen. He’s much more than a matchup-lefty and could be a valuable bullpen member for a while. Can he return to starting? Hard to say; does he have a third pitch? Years of starting in the minors seems to indicate that his future remains in the pen. Outlook for next season: reprising his 7th inning reliever role.
Matt Thornton had an excellent age 38 year; 2.18 ERA, 3.52 FIP, 1.065 ERA in 41.1 relief innings across 60 appearances. His FIP is much higher than his ERA because he doesn’t rely as much on the strikeout; he had just a 23/11 K/BB ratio in those 41.1 innings. His splits showed some interesting tidbits: 10 of his 11 walks on the year came against right handed hitters, while he had an 11/1 K/BB ratio when facing lefties. Thornton is best judged by his performance against lefties and he was excellent; .198/.205/.279, and this is why I’m an advocate of resigning him for 2016. I’m still kind of baffled by his being waived by the Yankees frankly. The FA market for left handed relievers is a little busy; I count 20 lefties out there. But not all of them were as effective as Thornton was in 2015. Can the Nats re-sign him? Do they want to? They do have several in-house loogy replacements to be discussed, if they wanted to save a couple million dollars off of payroll. Outlook for next season: another season as a loogy, for the Nats or elsewhere.
Casey Janssen: when the Nats acquired Janssen, a three year closer for the Toronto Blue Jays, I figured the team’s late-inning bullpen issues were solved. The loss of Rafael Soriano was inevitable (and, frankly, not really that important given how badly he finished 2014), but the loss of Tyler Clippard was going to be hard to fix. But plugging in a former AL east closer into the 8th inning role? No worries. Well, that’s not quite how it went. Janssen got hurt in spring training, missed the first 7 weeks of the season … and then underwhelmed once he arrived. His numbers on the season: 4.95 ERA, 4.05 FIP, 1.150 whip, with 27/8 K/BB in 40 IP. Perhaps the 4.95 ERA is skewed by a few bad outings: scanning through his game log he gave up 4 runs on 5/30, another 4 runs on 8/31, 3 more the following day (in that infamous St. Louis series) and 2 on 9/27. So of the 22 runs he allowed all year, 13 of them were in four outings. Perhaps so, but his job as an 8th inning guy is not to allow these massive rallies, ever. His fastball velocity has been declining and his 4-seamer sat at just 88.3 MPH on average this year; is that fast enough even if you have pinpoint control and can throw 5 pitches? Apparently not; Janssen’s struggles were a big part of the bullpen’s struggles this year, a big reason they felt the need to acquire Papelbon, and in crunch time towards the end of the season Williams didn’t trust him to give him important assignments. The Nats bought out his option year and cut ties with him; the end of a disappointing season together. Outlook for next season: middle reliever for another organization.
Aaron Barrett: started out the year looking good as a key 6th/7th inning righty, struggled starting in May, hit the D/L in June, got lit up on Aug 5th to the point of getting demoted to AAA, at which point he (finally) told team doctors that his arm had been bugging him for weeks (months even). A quick scan showed a blown UCL and he underwent Tommy John surgery on September 5th, 2015. Final season stats: 4.60 ERA but a 2.21 FIP, 1.193 whip and 35/7 K/BB in 29.1 innings. Look; you don’t want to wish ill will on a guy for trying to gut it out, but at what point was his arm issues impacting his performance on the field and costing the team games? Outlook for next season: on the 60-day D/L for most if not all the season.
Sammy Solis was closer to a DFA than a call-up at the end of 2014, a season mostly lost to injury and lost promise of the former 2nd round pick. But a slew of injuries forced him into action in the Nats bullpen and he held up, throwing 21.1 innings of 3.38 ERA, 3.46 fip, 1.359 whip with a 17/4 K/BB ratio. That’s not too bad of a debut, even if it was his age 26 season. He showed a reverse split interestingly, with lefties hitting him at a .355 clip (righties: .255). I have a feeling that the team is likely going to look elsewhere for a second lefty out of the pen. Option number one is probably resigning Matt Thornton, which will relegate Solis to AAA/spare part duty in Syracuse. Outlook for next season: Syracuse bullpen/lefty reliever coverage.
Matt Grace; 4.24 ERA, 3.08 fip, 2.00 whip with 14/8 K/BB in 17 IP across 26 outings. Grace is a nice story, a guy who really came on strong in 2014 and earned his 40-man slot. But his numbers in his first go-around in the majors were less than ideal. See Solis’ write up and then add on a little pessimism and you have Grace right now; too many baserunners and not enough ability to get right handers out (.429 BAA) to be trusted as an effective major league reliever right now. Outlook for next season: As with Solis Syracuse bullpen/lefty reliever coverage. Except he’s “behind” Solis.
Rafael Martin: everyone’s favorite story. Signed out of the Mexican leagues, shot up the system posting just ridiculous numbers in AA and AAA in 2013 and 2014. Finally got his shot and had some really odd stat lines: 5.11 ERA, 4.76 FIP, 1.378 whip with 25/5 K/BB in 12.1 major league innings. That’s right; he had an 18.2 K/9 ratio. He struck out 8 of the first 12 batters he faced, including a pretty memorable debut where he struck out 5 guys in two innings in Boston in mid April. He was looking like a made-for-TV-movie story until he took a rough outing in Miami and got sent down … not to be recalled until 9/1. He threw a bunch of garbage time innings in September and got his ERA back down but kept striking guys out with his upper 80s arsenal. Why didn’t he get more of a shot when the chips were down and other right handed relievers were struggling in August? I don’t know. Honestly, I think he’d make an excellent long-man/middle reliever, the classic “7th guy out of the pen” with his ability to go long and spin the ball in there as a change of pace versus harder throwing guys. Something tells me though that he’s going to be back in Syracuse as bullpen insurance. Outlook for next season: Syracuse bullpen/righty reliever coverage.
David Carpenter: acquired in trade from the Yankees for Tony Renda, threw 6 innings in the majors for the team, got hurt, went to the 60-day D/L with a shoulder issue, outrighted on 11/15/15, refused the assignment and has already signed with Atlanta for 2016. Not exactly the best return for a former 2nd round pick and slightly surprising he was outrighted while there was still room on the 40-man roster (and still is room as we speak). Outlook for next season: in Atlanta organization.
Craig Stammen: threw just 4 innings before requiring elbow surgery. A huge blow for a guy who had been a team leader in IP and an effective middle reliever for years. He’s arbitration eligible, and the team could not arrive at an equitable deal ahead of the 12/2/15 non-tender deadline, so Stammen was non-tendered. I have a feeling that if the team still wants him for 2016 and will work out some sort of heavy incentive-laden deal to keep him in the fold (he’s been with the organization since 2005 after all, tying him for the longest tenured player still with the team now that Ian Desmond has declared FA. Outlook for next season: hopefully back in his 7th inning middle relief role, perhaps pitching elsewhere.
Xavier Cedeno: threw 3 innings, gave up 3 hits, 2 walks and two runs, then was inexplicably DFA’d and traded to the Dodgers for “cash.” The Dodgers then turned around and traded him to Tampa, where he put up a 2.09 ERA in 43 IP in 2015. What the heck happened here? We talked about it in this space when it happened, and the quick hook DFA was as inexplicable then as it seems now. Was this perhaps the first precursor into the questionable bullpen management that plagued Matt Williams all year? Outlook for next season: a valuable loogy for Tampa.
Other Relievers who pitched too few innings for analysis:
- Taylor Hill: provided 12 innings of bullpen coverage in Late May-Early June: see AAA write-up.
- Abel de los Santos: added to the 40-man, called up and started his service clock (oh, and burned an option too while they were at it) so that he could throw to exactly eight (8) batters in mid-july before being returned to Harrisburg. Ridiculous use of resources frankly. See AA write-up.
- Position players Clint Robinson and Tyler Moore became the 1st and 2nd position players to ever hurl for the Washington franchise, each throwing the final inning in a blow-out loss.

Bullpen summary: Ugh, what a mess from start to finish. Under performance, injuries, and a rotating door of guys trying to perform. By the end of August there wasn’t anyone even worth trusting in that pen, as evidenced in the critical Mets home series where the season was lost. Even given that, the bullpen as a whole ranked 12th in fWAR, 10th in ERA, 9th in FIP, so it wasn’t really that bad league-wide. Which surprised me too when I went to fangraphs to pull the data. Some more telling stats: 7th in the league in Blown saves with 27. 17th in total saves. 17th in Holds.

Pitching summary overall: we expected more, and in the end the performance of the staff and bullpen probably wasn’t the sole reason this team failed to win the NL East. But it didn’t help.

Written by Todd Boss

December 16th, 2015 at 8:50 am

Operation Bullpen Makeover Status Report

26 comments

Welcome to the Nats Mr. Gott. Photo via gettyimages

At the end of the 2015 season, our (primary 7-man not including 9/1 callups) bullpen looked like this:

Papelbon, Janssen, Treinen, Thornton*, Rivero*, Fister and Solis* (Stammen, Barrett, Storen on the D/L)

Then half these guys (Janssen, Thornton and Fister) hit the road via Free Agency, already leaving huge holes to fill. In fact as of just a week ago after this was what our Opening Day 2016 bullpen would have looked like:

Papelbon, Storen, Treinen, Stammen, Rivero*, Solis* and Martin as a long-man I guess (Barrett to go to the 60 day D/L as soon as he’s eligible).

After a flurry of moves in the past 10 days, here’s what we’re looking at now:

(Papelbon, Storen) Gatt, Kelley, Treinen, Perez*, Rivero*, Petit

And presumably there’s more work to be done (you have to think we’ll acquire a Proven Closer™ to replace the Papelbon/Storen combo). But, so far, not a bad week for Mr. Rizzo.

Quick thoughts on each move (in chronological order)

Craig Stammen non-tender: discussed at length in the Non-tender deadline preview post comment section. I didn’t like it for reasons discussed ad naseum, but agree that the team must have decided the risk was too much.
Oliver Perez signing 2yrs/$7M: good 2015 numbers in the NL with Arizona, then not so much in 12 innings with Houston. His LHP-LHB splits are good while righties hit him at an .881 OPS clip in 2015. I guess that’s as good of a Matt Thornton replacement as we need.
Yusmeiro Petit signing 1yr/$2.5M after getting non-tendered by SF. An odd move by SF; his 2015 regular season numbers were just fine to me. An ERA+ over a 100, flexibility to go long or go short. And the Nats certainly remember getting shut down by him in the 2014 NLDS. A good move for me as a near like-for-like replacement for Stammen (with the exception that Petit can go longer than Stammen could so he could be the long-man as needed).
Shawn Kelley for 3yrs/$15M (as reported); three straight years of fantastic swing and miss stuff (11-12 K/9 rates). Great option to add as an 8th inning guy/eventual setup role, eventually replacing what Casey Janssen never did.
Trevor Gott in trade for Yunel Escobar: it seems like an underwhelming return for Escobar on the face of it. Escobar was our 2nd leading hitter last year and played multiple infield positions. But his batting average was pretty “empty” (he slugged .415) and his defense was abhorrent (not that he ever should have been playing 3B once Anthony Rendon came back … but that’s another gripe). I think what it does indicate is the rising cost of good relievers and the fact that Escobar has one year of control while Gott has just 114 days of service time and is thus controlled for at least *six* more seasons, three of which will be at the pittance MLB minimum. Gott’s numbers as a 22 yr old were pretty good; 125 ERA+, an ERA right around 3.00. Not a ton of swing and miss so far in the majors but he was a closer in the minors and seems like a good 6th/7th inning guy (in other words, a Barrett replacement for the time being).

This configuration leaves a slew of projected relievers set to start in AAA or on the D/L:

D/L: Barrett (60dl), likely lost for the whole year
RH middle relievers: Martin, eDavis, de los Santos,
Loogies: Solis*, Grace*, Lee*
Long Men options: Jordan, Hill, Espino

What’s left to do?

Flip Storen for value
Dump Papelbon for a couple of pizzas
Find a for-real closer; its going to cost some serious stuff, based on the Craig Kimbrel and Ken Giles trades. Be ready for it.
Sign some more veteran relievers for AAA like we always do.

Questions for the group;

Do you like the configuration of this bullpen so far? Assuming we get a for-real closer and dump Storen and Papelbon, would you say that its an improvement over last year?
Is this too many new players to gel properly? Don’t we always hear about how pitchers are creatures of habit and how “Teams” take a while to gel and play well together? We’re basically throwing out a bunch of guys in that pen who will have never even met, let alone build camaraderie. Do you worry about this? Or do you believe that “winning builds chemistry” and that players are just cyber machines who you charge up in the morning with Red Bull and then slot them into their roles and they magically produce? (If you couldn’t read between the lines in that sentence of sarcasm to tell what I think … well I can’t help you 🙂

Written by Todd Boss

December 11th, 2015 at 10:00 am

2016 Nationals Payroll Projection

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Werth is still the high-man on the payroll. Photo via fansided.com

So, one big factor in any team’s off-season plan is figuring out exactly what the payroll is going to look like, to figure out what their budget is, and then go shopping from there. This post goes through the guys we have under contract as we speak to try to do some projections of what we already have committed in terms of 2016 dollars and therefore draw some conclusions about how much FA shopping/veteran salary acquisition we’ll be doing this coming off-season.

(note: all this data is, of course, in a Google XLS for your perusal and/or available as a Link to the right).

The 2015 Nats opening day payroll (according to Cots) was $162,014,559. This represented about a $25M bump from the previous year and included a significant amount of money heading to Free Agents in the last year of their deals. Here’s the list of Salary immediately coming off the books from the 2015 team:

Player	Current or 2015 Contract	2015 Salary
Zimmermann, Jordan	2yr/$24M (14-15) 7.5 and 16.5	$16,500,000
Desmond, Ian	2yr/$17.5M (14-15), 6.5 and 11	$11,000,000
Span, Denard	5 years/$16.5M (10-14), $9M club opt 15	$9,000,000
McLouth, Nate	2yr/$10.75M (14-15) with opt	$5,000,000
Thornton, Matt	2yr/$7M (14-15)	$3,500,000
Janssen, Casey	1yr/$5M (15) 2016 optn	$3,500,000
Uggla, Dan	1yr/mlb min (15)	$507,500
Johnson, Reed	1yr/1M (15)	$1,000,000
Fister, Doug	1yr, $7.2M (14) (arb2)	$11,400,000
	sum –>	$61,407,500

So, that’s $61M coming off the books. I’ve counted the option buyout dollars for the 2016 options of Janssen and McLouth in the 2016 figures, but this is still a significant sum.

So, 61M coming off the books; how much are we committed to for 2016 as things stand?

First, lets look at dollars committed to Existing Veteran Players under Contract:

Player	Current or 2015 Contract	2015	2016
Scherzer, Max	7yr/$210M (15-21), half deferred	$17,142,857	$15,000,000
Werth, Jayson	7 yr/$126M (11-17)	$21,571,429	$21,571,429
Zimmerman, Ryan	6 yr/$100M (14-19)+20 opt	$14,000,000	$14,000,000
Gonzalez, Gio	5yr/$42M (12-16)+17,18 options	$11,100,000	$12,100,000
Papelbon, Jonathan	4yr/$50M + 2016 Optn (11M, 3M deferred)	$13,000,000	$8,000,000
Escobar, Yunel	2yr/$13M (15-16) 2017 optn	$5,000,000	$7,000,000
Harper, Bryce	2yr/$7.5M (15-16)	$2,500,000	$5,000,000
		sum –>	$82,671,429

I count about $82M committed to these 7 players for 2016. I’m only counting Scherzer‘s salary at the $15M for 2016 since that’s what he’s gonna get paid exactly in 2016. Cots has a whole complicated explanation when it estimates payroll on its site (see this link) by prorating his signing bonus over 7 years and a whole different calculation made for luxury tax purposes, but I think that’s a mistake to use anything other than the actual dollars going out the door in a given year. The Lerner’s kicked that can well down the road by getting him to agree to defer literally half the money in the deal for the express purpose of keeping its present value down for their budget, so that’s how i’m figuring it here. If you disagree, feel free to argue about it in the comments.

If the Nats can move Papelbon and some of his $11M in salary, all the better, but I figure they’ll likely have to eat a lot of it to do so, so I can’t see this figure moving much with off-season trades.

Next, lets look at the Players Eligible for Arbitration. I’ve put in some quick guesses/estimates for arbitration figures for these players. I’ve historically been somewhat conservative in my guesses, so these might be off by a million here or there, but in the macro sense it won’t make that much difference. If you think i’m wildly wrong about (say) my Strasburg estimate, lets argue in the comments:

Player	Current or 2015 Contract	2015	2016
Strasburg, Stephen	1yr/7.4M (15) (arb3)	$7,400,000	$12,000,000
Storen, Drew	1yr/$5.7M (15) (arb4)	$5,700,000	$7,600,000
Ramos, Wilson	1yr/$3.55M (15) (arb3)	$3,550,000	$4,700,000
Rendon, Anthony	4yr/$7.2M ($6M bonus) (11-14)+15 opt (arb1)	$1,800,000	$4,000,000
Stammen, Craig	1yr/$2.25M (15) (arb4)	$2,250,000	$2,400,000
Espinosa, Danny	1yr/$1.8M (15) (arb2)	$1,800,000	$3,200,000
Lobaton, Jose	1yr/$1.2M (15) (arb3)	$1,200,000	$1,500,000
Moore, Tyler	1 yr/$0.5182M (15) (arb1)	$518,200	$1,200,000
		sum –>	$36,600,000

So, if we keep all these guys I can see them costing in arbitration about $36.6M. It wouldn’t surprise me in the least to see Storen traded of course, nor would it surprise me to see Moore DFA’d outright, or for the team to acquire another backup catcher and part ways with the light-hitting Lobaton. But we’ll cross that bridge when we get there. For now, $36.6M is a good estimate. Thankfully Strasburg really struggled this year, otherwise his arb-3 figure might be closer to Zimmermann’s last arb figure ($16.5M) than the $12-13 he may eventually get.

Coincidentally on Rendon: did you guys see where he made the Super-2 cutoff on the exact day in terms of service time? 2 years, 130 days. And that’s exactly what he has. So, depending on how he plays over the next few years that likely costs the Nats at least $8-10M in salary. Hey, not my money. I don’t exactly think the team was actively trying to manipulate his time like they did with Strasburg, so maybe they just don’t care.

So that’s 7 vets and 8 arbitration cases. That leaves 10 players to fill out the rest of the 25-man roster and they’re all Pre-Arbitration Players:

Player	Current or 2015 Contract	2015	2016
Roark, Tanner	1 yr/$0.5296M (15)	$529,600	$550,000
Robinson, Clint	1 yr/$0.525M (15)	$525,000	$550,000
Barrett, Aaron	1 yr/$0.5142M (15)	$514,200	$530,000
den Dekker, Matt	1 yr/$512,972 (15)	$512,972	$525,000
Treinen, Blake	1 yr/$0.5128M (15)	$512,800	$530,000
Taylor, Michael	1 yr/$0.5087M (15)	$508,700	$525,000
Rivero, Felipe	1yr Minor League deal (15)		$510,000
Ross, Joe	1yr Minor League deal (15)		$515,000
Turner, Trea	1yr Minor League deal (15)		$515,000
Solis, Sammy	1yr Minor League deal (15)		$510,000
		sum –>	$5,260,000

If the 2016 season started tomorrow, this is how i’d project the rest of the roster coincidentally.

Even factoring in nominal raises for guys like Roark and Robinson, this still doesn’t even total half of what Papelbon is due in 2016. Pre-Arbitration players; the best deal in the game!

Here’s the rest of the 40-man roster, who under my projections would be toiling somewhere in the minors on a 40-man roster prorated basis:

Player	Current or 2015 Contract
Davis, Erik	1 yr/$0.5089M (15)
Cole, A.J.	1yr Minor League deal (15)
de los Santos, Abel	1yr Minor League deal (15)
Difo, Wilmer	1yr Minor League deal (15)
Goodwin, Brian	1yr Minor League deal (15)
Grace, Matt	1yr Minor League deal (15)
Hill, Taylor	1yr Minor League deal (15)
Jordan, Taylor	1yr Minor League deal (15)
Martin, Rafael	1yr Minor League deal (15)
Severino, Pedro	1yr Minor League deal (15)
Kieboom, Spencer	1yr Minor League deal (16)
Bostick, Chris	1yr Minor League deal (16)
Lee, Nick	1yr Minor League deal (16)

I don’t think Cots counts these guys against payroll because unless they’re on the 25-man roster actively, they’re not necessarily getting paid like it. I think. I’m open to suggestion here.

So, where does that leave us?

Existing Veteran Players under Contract: $82,671,429
Buyouts of 2016 options: $2,250,000
Players Eligible for Arbitration: $36,600,000 estimated
Pre-Arbitration Players: $5,260,000 estimated

Total 2016 Projected Payroll: $126,781,429.

That’s $35m less than 2015. So, if you make the argument that the Lerners will keep payroll even with 2015, that’s about $35M of payroll room with which to work. For some reason I think they’re going to rein back in payroll, so lets call the target for 2016 about $150M. Not too bad; that should buy what this team needs.

In my “GM for a Day” post in early October 2015, here’s what I put as a shopping list:

Bullpen; if a $10M closer is acquired, you off-set the salary a bit with a Storen trade, and then perhaps buy a mid-level veteran RHP for $5-6M/year.
Lefty hitters: not much on the FA market that won’t cost you an arm and a leg; we could get creative and move some depth for another $10M outfielder type and use Taylor as a 4th.
Backups: Maybe some infield depth in the $5M range.
Maybe rotation competition; frankly there’s better things to spend money on, so I think they go to battle with what they have.

So, that’s roughly $25M in acquisitions, right around the $150M target. That could work.

What do you think? Sound like a good plan?

Written by Todd Boss

November 24th, 2015 at 9:54 am

Qualifying Offer analysis: Nats and Leaguewide

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Desmond gets a QO. Photo Drew Kinback/Natsnq.com

Qualifying Offer (QO) extension time has come and past, and a record 20 players received the 15.8M one-year contract tender for 2016.

The Nationals, as has been typical, went the conservative route and only gave a QO to the two players they expect to reach significant, multi-year deals. Jordan Zimmermann and Ian Desmond. They opted not to extend offers to their other 7 free agents, nor to the two guys who a year ago you would have thought to be locks to get one (Doug Fister and Denard Span).

(coincidentally: am I the only one who thinks that the Nats actually have 9 free agents on their end-of-year 40-man roster? Zimmermann, Desmond, Span, Fister, Uggla, McLouth, Janssen, Thornton and Johnson. Why is it that all the other stories I read only list the first 8? Is Reed Johnson actually not a FA? Look at the Nats XLS on Cots‘; Johnson is absolutely listed as a FA, as are 6 others, plus the two with options that we’ve already declined. Am I wrong?)

Anyway. I’m on record as saying that the Nats should have extended 3 QOs to include Span. Yet not for the first time, the team has opted not to offer a QO to a guy who clearly would have declined it. And this will be the third time they have made a crucial mistake as an organization and gave away a high draft pick needlessly. Edwin Jackson was always going to sign a multi-year deal and the Nats inexplicably failed to give him one. Same with Adam LaRoche, who clearly still had a market for his services and would have garnered another pick.

I’m not sure exactly what Scott Boras seems to “have” on the Lerners … but not for the first time they’ve cut him a break and done him and his clients an inexplicable favor. So, what exactly do the Nats get out of this? Span should send the team management a fruit basket for not destroying his FA market this coming off-season. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: Span didn’t hire Scott Boras so that he could hand over a commission check on a gift of a $15.8M one year deal. Span was never going to accept that QO. Just dumb. But hey, it isn’t exactly the first dumb thing this front office/ownership group has done this off season…

So, of the 20 players who did get a QO … the annual question remains. Will someone actually take it this year? Just as a reminder, here’s the entire list of QO-offered players since the system began, with their eventual contract offer and a judgement of whether or not the QO “hurt” their next contract. Eight in 2012, 13 in 2013, and 12 after last season. That’s 33 total players and so far NOT ONE has signed the deal. I’m still not entirely convinced that there’s not a Player’s Union-wide conspiracy going on where they decline the QOs en masse because they don’t agree with it for some reason. Certainly it seems like the next CBA will eliminate it, since it has clearly done little except harm the market for FAs.

Here’s a quick opinion on the 20 guys who got QOs and what I think may happen (AAV = Average Annual Value on their contract):

Easily surpass AAV of $15.8M and get monster deals: Greinke, Heyward, Zimmermann, Upton, Gordon: All of these guys are marquee free agents, are the kind of guys you give up a pick to sign gladly, and will sign for significant money well eclipsing the QO AAV or guaranteeing a significant amount of money (like, in the $80M+ range).
Will sign multi-year deals with significant money, even if AAV is “only” at or near $15.8M: Desmond, Davis, Iwakuma, Gallardo, Samardzija: I can see Desmond doing 4/$60 or something like that in New York, I can see the two pitchers getting nice deals in the 3/$45 range and I can see Davis banking a short high AAV deal. For me, even Samardzija’s 2015 decline won’t scare off some teams, especially teams out west in pitcher’s parks and especially since he could be a nice 2nd-tier deal of an arm once you get past the significant FA pitchers.
Might not get $15.8M AAV, but will sign for at least 2/$25M or 3/$40M or something: Lackey, Chen, Kendrick, Weiters, Anderson: Most of these guys probably take less AAV but guarantee more total cash, like several guys did last off-season. I’ll bet some of these guys re-sign with their current teams too (Anderson, maybe Kendrick, maybe Lackey too). The draft pick compensation likely scares off some teams here, so their market will be limited, but if a team has a protected first pick they might be ok giving up a second rounder for these guys. Or, a team like Washington, which will get two supp-1st picks, may be willing to give up its 1st rounder to just “drop down” 10-15 slots to sign these guys.

So that leaves more than a few guys who might be crazy not to sign the offer sheet:

Rasmus: made just $8M this year; does anyone really think he’s getting significantly more in FA on an AAV basis? Plus, who is going to give up a 1st or even a 2nd round pick to sign him? And he hit just .238 in a hitter’s park. This seems like a “dare” move from the Houston front office, known in the industry to be just a bit too clever for their own good sometimes. As in, “I dare you to break with your union and take this deal.” If there really is some un-spoken agreement among players to never take a QO, he’s a great test case.
Fowler: Similar situation to Rasmus ($9.5M this year): he’s not the kind of guy you commit significant money to, is he? He does have value in a very small CF market, so perhaps you make the argument he belongs in the same conversation as Lackey or Kendrick.
Murphy: made just $8M this year and hit half as many homers in the post season as he had all year. So clearly he made himself some cash with his post-season exploits .. but enough to double his pay on an AAV basis? A shrewd move from the NY front office, pressing the issue here with Murphy.
Kennedy: $9.8M this year but has been awful. Might not even be a 5th starter, and has Scott Boras as an agent. Who’s giving up a 1st rounder to make him their 5th starter? Who’s signing him to a long term deal? Without the QO stigma, I could have seen him signing a 1yr/$8M deal but not much else. How can he possibly not take this offer, a gift of a pillow contract to re-gain some value for next off-season? One reason: his agent. Is Kennedy going to be the next Stephen Drew or Kendrys Morales, who gets talked into hitting the open market by his aggressive agent only to find himself sitting until next year’s draft passes since nobody’s willing to give up a high round pick to sign him?
Estrada: he made just $3.9M in 2015 and has made just $10m TOTAL in his career, yet got offered $15.8M for next season after a breakout year in Toronto. Uh, why wouldn’t he take this QO? He’s on the wrong side of 30, would more than double his CAREER earnings with one stroke of the pen, and if he repeats his performance could get a 3-year deal taking him past age 35 to lock up his financial future. This is easily the craziest QO we’ve seen yet and will be the biggest test of the system.

It just seems to me that this last group of players are either going to re-sign with their own team or are going to get really screwed in the open market. Look at that last group of 5 players and tell me who’s giving up a 1st round pick to sign them?

Good further reading on the same topic:

Grant Brisbee‘s analysis of who is getting “hosed” by the QO this year.
Buster Olney‘s list of seven players who may accept the QO this year
Ken Rosenthal with an editorial about the state of the QO system.

Written by Todd Boss

November 9th, 2015 at 11:11 am

Nationals Arm Race

Archive for the ‘casey janssen’ tag

We miss you: Former Nats from the 2015 team and where they are now

From Nats to Oblivion; Updated for 2016 season and 2017 Early Season appearances

From Nats to Oblivion; Updated for 2015 season and 2016 Assignments

Potomac/High-A Pitching Staff Year in Review; 2015

Harrisburg/AA Pitching Staff Year in Review; 2015

Nationals Arm Race Best Stories for 2015; Happy New Year!

Nationals/MLB Pitching Staff Year in Review; 2015

Operation Bullpen Makeover Status Report

2016 Nationals Payroll Projection

Qualifying Offer analysis: Nats and Leaguewide

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