Nationals Arm Race

2nd in a series: here’s the opener, reviewing the Major league squad.

For some historical perspective, here’s 2012’s version (featuring John Lannan) and 2011’s version (featuring Tommy Milone) of this post for AAA Syracuse.

All stats are courtesy of either milb.com’s Syracuse Stats page or via Fangraph’s Syracuse Stats page.   Also useful here are the Big Board and the Nats Draft Tracker.

Syracuse starters.  The rotation started the season with Ohlendorf, Roark, Maya, Perry and Rosenbaum.  It finished the year with Maya, Tatusko, Rosembaum, Mandel and Clay.  Here’s an overview of the starters Syracuse used, starting with the original 5.

• Ross Ohlendorf took a minor league gig with the Nationals to try to revitalize his career and went a somewhat pedestrian looking 4-6 in 13 starts.  His FIP (3.49) was better than his ERA (4.22) and his K/9 was good as he revamped his windup.  A streak of good starts led to his June call-up, where he basically spent the rest of the season as the Nats’ long-man/spot starter.  He tired as a starter, only going past the 5th inning three times, and Davey Johnson seemed hesitant to use him because of it.  Outlook for next season: he did enough to get tendered a contract (which he quickly signed; 1yr/$1.25M), and seemingly he will slot back in as the long-man/spot-starter role for the MLB team.  He doesn’t seem to have enough to compete and win the 5th starter competition.  Will the team dump him to AAA as an inexpensive starter insurance policy?  I doubt it for now; they probably opt to keep Ohlendorf as the last guy out of the pen.
• Tanner Roark started in the rotation, got shelled in his 2nd and (especially) his 3rd starts, and got dumped to the bullpen.  He toiled there for weeks before getting another shot in the rotation, and when he did he did very well.  By the time he got called up in August he had recovered from his 3 2/3 inning 10-run debacle in early April to post a 9-3 record with a 3.15 ERA and a 0.99 whip in AAA.  All he did upon arriving in the majors is pitch lights-out (a 252 ERA+) in 50 innings mixed with starts and relief appearances.  Outlook for next season: he’ll compete for the 5th starter job in spring but may not win it.  Its hard to imagine a guy who threw 50+ innings of 1.50 ERA ball to NOT make the team the following spring; he could end up replacing Ohlendorf as the long-man/spot starter for the MLB team.
• Yunesky Maya made nearly a complete season worth of starts for Syracuse, going 8-8 with a 3.87 ERA.   However in his third (and last) opportunity to pitch for the major league club he got hammered, which led to a DFA in late May and an outright to Syracuse.  Maya pitched out the string, was not called up in September and was released in late November.  Outlook for next season: he has signed a minor league contract with Atlanta, closing the book on an unsatisfying tenure with the Nationals organization.
• Ryan Perry started the year in the rotation under the National’s grand plan to make him a starter, and the experiment failed.  8 starts later, he boasted a 7.93 ERA.  He hit the D/L, then was demoted to Harrisburg.  There, he was outrighted off the 40-man roster and returned to the bullpen, where he was mediocre (4.43 ERA).  How odd; last year we were worried about Perry getting that needed 4th option; now he’s an org arm in AA.  This guy was pitching in a playoff team’s bullpen at 22, now he’s turning 27 and banished in the mid-minors.  Amazing.  Outlook for next season: he has to show he can get AA hitters out; you have to think he’s starting in the AA bullpen again, unless a numbers dearth pushes him by attrition to the AAA bullpen.
• Danny Rosenbaum had a whirlwind spring, getting rule-5 drafted by Colorado and then subsequently returned in late March, just in time to pack his bags for upstate New York and take his spot in the back end of the Syracuse Rotation.  Rosenbaum led the 2013 rotation in starts and innings, going 7-11 with a 3.87 ERA.  He did not earn a September call-up, nor was he selected in 2013’s Rule-5 draft.  Unfortunately, Rosenbaum seems to have found his ceiling and may need a change of scenery to see if he can move forward.  Outlook for next season: one more season as Syracuse’s innings eating lefty, then a minor league free agent at the end of 2014.
• Ryan Tatusko gave Syracuse a full season of swing-man production, starting in the pen and then ending in the rotation.  Final season stats: 5-8 with a 4.33 ERA in 28 appearances (18 starts).  Nothing special here: I just wish I knew what happened to the guy who was a lights-out starter for Texas’ AA franchise when we acquired him in 2010.  Outlook for next season: Minor League Free Agent, likely pitching in another organization.
• Caleb Clay gave both AA and AAA 13 starts a-piece, finishing the year in Syracuse with excellent numbers (5-2, 2.49 ERA in 13 starts in AAA).   He turned out to be an excellent minor league FA signing for the organization; too bad they couldn’t keep him for 2014.  I was somewhat disappointed to see  him signing elsewhere, thinking that he could be a sneaky good pitcher for the Nats someday.  Outlook for next season: signed with San Francisco as a minor league free agent for 2014, where he stands a halfway decent chance of contributing at the MLB level, considering how bad Ryan Vogelsong and Tim Lincecum were in 2013.
• Jeff Mandel continued to serve as the rubber arm swing man for Syracuse, a role that he’s essentially played for the Nats AAA affiliate in one way or another since 2010.  This year he got 10 starts and 100+ innings and continued to show unfortunately that his peak is as an organizational/innings eating arm.  Outlook for next season: Minor League Free Agent; he could sign on again with Washington as he did last off-season but he has to think that his path to the majors is easier with another team.
• Chris Young was signed to a combo deal last off-season to give the team some starter insurance.  Instead he started hurt, pitched horribly in 7 starts, then went back on the D/L for essentially the rest of the season.   He gave up 50 hits in 32 AAA innings and was smoked for a 7.88 ERA.  Outlook for next season: the Nats must have seen something they liked during his rehab assignments, because they’ve already signed him to a minor league contract for 2014.  AAA rotation, hopefully healthy this time.
• Brad Meyers was rule-5 drafted by the Yankees in 2012, got hurt for them, and was eventually returned in time for the 2013 season, but spent the entire year on the D/L.  He’s got enough time to be a MLFA but isn’t on BA’s list so I presume he’s still in the organization.  Outlook for next season: competing for a rotation spot in AAA; likely to be released if he doesn’t make the team.

• Other guys who got spot starts here and there:
  • Matt Torra had 5 starts in June/July then got released.
  • Taylor Hill got a couple of spot starts in August and was sent back to AA; see Harrisburg’s writeup for more on him.
  • Christian Garcia got a couple of “starts” doing re-hab assignments; see the reliever section.
  • Tyler Robinson had a spot start and an extended outing; see the reliever section.
  • Paul Demny got a spot start call-up and was sent back down; see Harrisburg’s writeup for more.

Syracuse Relievers: taking a look at the relief corps.  We’ll organize relievers by looking at closers first, then by innings pitched.

• Erik Davis was Syracuse’s closer in name for a bulk of the season, earning 15 saves while posting a 3.10 ERA in 52+ innings.  He was a Sept 2012 pre-rule5 40-man addition and spent a week in the MLB pen in June before getting recalled for September.  Out of his 10 MLB appearances he gave up zero runs in 9 of them and showed excellent middle-reliever stuff (12/1 K/BB ratio in 8 2/3 innings).  Outlook for next season: I don’t think he can crack the 7-man MLB bullpen so he’ll be in Syracuse again, but there’s a reason he got added to the 40-man and I think he features as MLB bullpen insurance throughout the year.
• Michael Broadway was a MLFA signing who gave the organization excellent back-of-the-bullpen production the whole year, starting with Harrisburg and ending with Syracuse.  Outlook for next season: he has already signed a MLFA deal with Toronto for 2014, somewhat of a disappointment.  Like Clay, I would have liked to have kept this guy around if possible.
• Michael Crotta was another organizational-filling MLFA signing in 2013 who, like Broadway, toiled well and ate innings in Syracuse.   Outlook for next season: MLFA again, likely signing elsewhere.
• Tyler Robertson was a June 2013 waiver claim off of Minnesota, grabbed to help address the team’s lack of left-handed relievers.  Robertson pitched decently for Syracuse but was passed on the Loogy depth chart by several others.  He was outrighted in November ahead of the Rule-5 draft.  Outlook for next season: Syracuse bullpen, though if i’m not mistaken he’s got enough service time to be a MLFA.  I wonder if his outright and acceptance of assignment to Syracuse was effectively the Nats signing him to a 2014 ML contract?  This is a frequent question and I’m not enough of an expert on baseball transactions to know the answer.
• Xavier Cedeno was an April 2013 waiver claim off of Houston (of all teams), who spent most of the season in Syracuse (save for a quick June call-up).  In September, he pitched pretty effectively, giving up just one run in 9 outings and 11+ innings for the big team.  He clearly hasn’t shown the team enough to be counted on as the go-to loogy, considering the Nats off-season trade for Jeremy Blevens and their talk of using the likes of Ross Detwiler and/or Sammy Solis as lefty reliever help in 2014.  And I know that many here think Cedeno is making the MLB roster; I just don’t see it right now.    Outlook for next season: Syracuse bullpen.
• Mark Lowe was a mid-season MLFA pickup after getting released by the Angels.  He opted out of his contract at the end of the minor league season when he wasn’t getting added to the 40-man or called-up.   Outlook for next season: MLFA
• Cole Kimball just never made it back from shoulder surgery and was outrighted in July.  He had an 8.06 ERA this year in 25 2/3 innings.   Outlook for next season: MLFA, likely out of baseball unfortunately.  Shoulder surgeries are just a killer.
• Fernando Abad was a MLFA signing last off-season who pitched great for Syracuse and earned a call-up in May.   He toiled in the pen decently most of the year for the big-club but wasn’t considered valuable enough to keep.  The team DFA’d him ahead of this year’s rule-5 draft and then worked out a trade with our favorite GM Billy Beane.  Outlook for next season: in Oakland’s organization.
• Christian Garcia got just 8 1/3 AAA innings this year (and 13 1/3 total in the minors on all rehab assignments) after getting hurt in spring training as the team tried to stretch him out as a starter.  I think the team now sees the error of its ways with Garcia, a fragile guy who has survived multiple surgeries to this point.  His stuff is so good, he’s a shoe-in for a MLB job if he’s healthy, but who can count on him to be healthy at this point?   Outlook for next season: if healthy, he’s competing for a 6th/7th inning role in the MLB bullpen.   He’s got plenty of options left though, so its likely he starts in the AAA bullpen given the crowded nature of the MLB pen right now.
• Other Relievers who appeared in AAA of note (not including Rehabbing MLBers): Outlook for next season for all of these guys seems the same: either continued “org guy” middle reliever or minor league free agent in another organization.
  • Jeremy Accardo: signed in February, released in June after a 5.56 ERA in 22+ innings.  He did not resign anywhere and may be done.
  • Bobby Bramhall was signed in November, and released 3 weeks into the season after posting a 6.75 ERA in 16 innings to make room for Cedeno & Young on the roster.   He was picked up by Philadelphia and ended the season demoted to their AA team.
  • J.C. Romero opted out of his contract after 2 months despite 15 decent apperances; it was clear the Nats weren’t calling him up and were favoring other loogy candidate acquisitions.  He was picked up by Cleveland, threw two innings and apparently went on the D/L.
  • Pat McCoy failed to make the jump from AA to AAA and was demoted back after 7 ineffective appearances; see the Harrisburg write-up for more.
  • Brian Dupra was called up for one game oddly; he spent most of the season in low- and high-A.  See Potomac’s write-up for more.

Summary

Despite the nature of AAA these days as being a “spare parts” storage team, Syracuse produced a couple of very pleasant surprises for this team.  Ohlendorf went from being a throw-away MLFA signing to a productive MLB long man.  Roark was one step from the dreaded “org guy/MLFA” category, and when given a chance pitched fantastically at the MLB level.  Plus, the development of loogy depth in the form of Robertson and Cedeno will serve the organization well.

 

Here’s this month’s Minor League Rotation Review post.  Here’s April 2013, May 2013, and June 2013‘s posts for history.

For each level, I’ll put out the rotation members, their “letter grades” per start for this month only, and then throw in a quick link to show their seasonal stats for context.  For each team there are 3 distinct groups of starters: the top group of 5-6 Starters per level is the “current rotation” as best as I can figure it, then the next section of pitchers are swing-men or spot-starters or guys who had “2nd start” or longer outings worthy of grading, followed by a 3rd group of guys who are generally no longer with the team (either by D/L, promotion, demotion or release).  I’ve only listed the third category if something transactionally has happened to the player this particular month.

All stats mentioned (ERAs, Whips, K/9 rates, etc) are as of 8/1/13 and may have slightly changed by the time of this posting.

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AAA Rotation: click here for Syracuse Milb.com stats

• Maya: B+,D,D-,A-,B+,A
• Tatusko: D,A,B,C+,B,B
• Rosenbaum: B,C-,A,D,D
• Roark: B+,C+,C-,A-,A
• Clay: A,A,D+/inc (rain),B,C

• Mandel: D->back to bullpen
• Robertson: F

Discussion: Syracuse has had the most stable rotation of the whole system.   Which is ironic because (if I’m interpreting their service time correctly) 4/5ths of this rotation are minor league free agents this coming off season.   Only Danny Rosenbaum is tied to the organization past this year, having already “survived” one rule-5 draft, but I think we can read the tea-leaves in terms of his future with the organization.  The bright side of this turnover will be the rightful promotion and challenging of several AA pitchers right now, to start grooming the true MLB injury replacements that we just did not have in-house this year (with apologies to Chris Young who really did not work out and Ross Ohlendorf, who has but in a non-starting role thus far).

Yunesky Maya has shown signs of life lately, putting up a few good performances in the latter part of the month.  Tanner Roark seems like he could be a useful swing-man on the MLB roster if called into action; he’s performed ably since returning to the rotation.  Caleb Clay continues to impress; how did he not success in Boston’s organization?

In the bullpen, Xavier Cedeno has excelled since his waiver claim from Houston but suffered from bad timing and bad luck; the two loogies called up (Abad and Krol) have both excelled.   Cedeno is likely another 6-year MLFA heading elsewhere this coming off-season.  (Note: Cedeno has just been called up to cover for Ohlendorf’s “dead arm” D/L trip).

 

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AA: click here for Harrisburg Milb.com stats

• Karns: A,A (inc),A,A,B-,B-
• Gilliam: A-,A+,D+,B,B,C-
• Cole: A+,A
• Ray: B+,A++,D,D,B-
• Hill: A,B,A-,B,B,D+

• Herron: D
• Swynenberg: A-
• Grace: B

• Demny: -> D/L, to bullpen, demoted
• Treinen: D->d/l,C+,B+ -> D/L

Discussion: Harrisburg’s rotation is now down to just one of the 5 guys who opened the year there; Nathan Karns has recovered from his MLB stint and long layoff and is back to dominating; if it weren’t for the full-deck in AAA Karns may have been promoted by now.   Blake Treinen (another original rotation guy) is on his second D/L stint of the month but has kept his numbers respectable.  Robert Gilliam continues his up-and-down season, moving between stellar and sub-par starts (which is reflected in his 4.09 ERA in AA).

The next generation though seems upon us: A.J. Cole, Robbie Ray and Taylor Hill are all on the same path this year: succeeded in High-A, pushed to AA and are now succeeding there.  Cole’s first two starts in Harrisburg could not have gone better, and Ray’s numbers are still good despite a couple of rough starts.  Remember; both Ray and Cole were “really young” at the season’s onset for High-A; now they’re among the youngest guys in all of AA and still producing.  This is great news going forward for this farm system, especially considering that another of the opening day Potomac starters (Taylor Jordan) is now effectively pitching in the majors.  I know this is the Harrisburg section, but think about the success of Potomac’s original 5 this year.

 

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High-A:  click here for Potomac Milb.com stats

• Purke: A-,F-,C-,D-,D,B+
• Demny: D,D/inc (2 innings)
• Solis: A-,D,A-
• Schwartz: A,D,C-,B+,C+,B+
• Rauh C,A,D,B+,A,D/inc (2/3 inning)

• Fischer: A,B
• Holt: A

• Ray: -> promoted
• Pineyro: A -> traded
• Cole: D,B+/inc,A- -> promoted
• Frias: B,F -> bullpen -> released 7/24/13

Discussion: The churn in the Potomac rotation continues.   They’ve not gotten starts from 15 different non-rehab assignment players.   And they keep on chugging, holding an 8 game lead in the division on August 1st after winning the first half.  Potomac’s two significant/important names of course are Matthew Purke and Sammy Solis.   Purke has looked hittable in High-A, his ERA skewed by one really bad outing but still not as dominant as you’d like someone with his pedigree to be.  Meanwhile Solis’ latest “return” seems to be going pretty well; he maintains a 2.65 ERA in Potomac while trying to build up arm strength.   Blake Schwartz is now the longest tenured rotation member and has pitched excellently so far in 2013.  He could be quite a find if he continues to develop (he was a 17th round pick who mostly pitched in Division II in college).

Meanwhile, Paul Demny‘s career faced a significant setback upon his demotion from Harrisburg.  He now sits back in High-A, a level at which he pitched a full season in 2011.  It may be time for Demny to try a conversion to relief, as it seems that he may be stalled as a starter.  He had great K/9 rates as a starter; it seems he may make a very effective reliever.

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Low-A: click here for Hagerstown Milb.com stats

• Turnbull: F,D,A,C-,A,D
• Encarnation: A+,C,A,D,A-,B+
• Mooneyham: B+,B-,D,B,A+
• Dickson: A,F,C+,B+
• Lee: A,B+,C-,B+,A-,B+

• RPena: B,B+
• Harper: | | | B,B+
• Meza: B

• Purke: -> promoted
• Anderson: -> d/l

Discussion: with Dixon Anderson‘s D/L trip, Pedro Encarnacion now becomes the senior statesman of Hagerstown.   Both guys have pretty similar numbers; good ERAs (3.20-3.30) and good whips (1.17-1.19).   Encarnaction continues his slow march up the farm system, having gotten further along than most every DSL graduate in recent  years.   Brett Mooneyham continues to dominate a league that he’s over-qualified for.    Kylin Turnbull continues to get pounded in a league that he should be handling.  Ian Dickson (who we got in trade for Henry Rodriguez) has done decently well since being added to the rotation; outside of one blow-up he’s given up just 4 runs in 20 innings over 5 starts.  Not a bad return so far for a guy we were going to cut anyway (and who the Cubs took about 5 weeks to DFA themselves).

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Short-A: click here for Auburn Milb.com stats

• Johansen: A,A,B+,B+,A
• Barrientos: D,C+,C- -> D/L,F
• Orlan: F-,B-,A,A,F
• DWilliams: B-,F,D,C-
• Voth: A,C+,B/inc (1ip),A-
• Ullmann: | | | F,B+

• Hollins: B,B+
• Bafidis: D+
• Medina: A-
• Selsor: B,D,D -> demoted to bullpen

• Hudgins: D+,A- -> retired !?
• Turnbull: C -> promoted

We’re seeing some big ERAs in Auburn so far.  Robert Orlan; 5.19 ERA.  Joel Barrientos: 4.66.  Deion Williams: 9.42.  Ugh.  More interesting to me are the 2013 draftee performances thus far.  2nd rounder Jake Johansen has been good; sub 1.00 ERA, sub 1.00 whip and about a K an inning so far.  He’s been a bit wild (28/14 K/BB ratio but has been consistently stingy when it comes to runs.  5th rounder Austin Voth has been sharp; 17/1 K/BB ratio in 14 innings so far in Short-A.  Lastly Ryan Ullman, a 30th round pick has had up and down starts so far in his 13 short-A innings.

I remain baffled with Will Hudgins abrupt retirement; he had 12 innings of relatively decent relief in 2013 and then tweeted out his retirement.   He hasn’t tweeted since, and when I mentioned it in the daily NationalsProspect.com post I didn’t get anyone who knew anything else.  Hopefully the retirement was not injury or illness related.

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GCL: click here for GCL-Nationals Stats on MiLB.com

• JRodriguez: F,A,A,B,B+
• Silvestre: C-,A,F,A
• Giolito: D/inc (only 1/3 inning),B,A-,D/inc (2/3 inings),D
• Suero: B,B+,A
• Valdez: A

• Ott: B,B,C
• DeRosier: B,B-
• KRodriguez: B,B+,B+,C+
• Pivetta: B-,B+,A
• Spezial: A
• Webb: A

• Voth: A -> promoted
• Ullmann: A,D+ -> promoted

It almost isn’t worth trying to grade out these GCL pitchers; most of the time they’re going 2-3 innings per “start” or per long relief stint.  If you pitch 3 scoreless innings, is that an “A?”   Lucas Giolito now has 6 “starts” but only a total of 12 combined innings thrown.   DSL grads Wander Suero and Jefry Rodriguez have looked promising.  Kelvin Rodriguez has good numbers in his combined mid-relief stints but relatively few strike outs (only 9 in 21 1/3 innings).

 

 

Here’s this month’s Minor League Rotation Review post.  Here’s April 2013 and May 2013‘s post for history.

For each level, I’ll put out the Rotation members, their “letter grades” per start for this month only, and then throw in a quick link to show their seasonal stats for context.  For each team there are 3 distinct groups of starters: the top group of 5-6 Starters per level is the “current rotation” as best as I can figure it, then the next section of pitchers are swing-men or spot-starters or guys who had “2nd start” or longer outings worthy of grading, followed by a 3rd group of guys who are generally no longer with the team (either by D/L, promotion, demotion or release).

All stats were as of 7/1/13 and may be slightly changed now with additional starts.

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AAA Rotation: click here for Syracuse Milb.com stats

• Maya: B+,D+,C+
• Tatusko: C -> hburg spot start and back,B+,D-,D
• Rosenbaum: B,B+,D,C-,B-,D
• Roark: A-,A
• Clay: B,C,A

• Mandel: D-,A-,D,D-

• Perry:  demoted
• Young: still on the D/L; no starts in June
• Demny: D- -> back down
• Ohlendorf: B+ -> promoted
• Torra: D,D-,C+->released

Discussion: The AAA rotation was rather tumultuous to follow in June.  Only Danny Rosenbaum made all of his expected starts.   Yunesky Maya nursed an injury and recognition of the looming ignomious end to his Nats career after his outright off the 40-man.  Ryan Tatusko continues to struggle in a starting role.  Tanner Roark always seems to do well in his spot-starts and may keep his gig in the rotation starting in July with the struggles of fellow swingman Jeff Mandel.   Caleb Clay has done very well since his promotion; he holds a 2.21 ERA in AAA and looks like quite a MLFA find so far.  Paul Demny wasn’t ready for AAA and got hammered in his one spot-start.  The team ran out of patience with Matt Torra and released him with a 5.53 ERA through 5 starts in April and May.  Ryan Perry‘s future in the organization is in question after being demoted to AA and successfully being outrighted off the 40-man roster.  Chris Young remains in organizational limbo, having not pitched in nearly 6 weeks.  Lastly the one success story: Ross Ohlendorf‘s patience has paid off with his promotion and his continued presence in the Nats bullpen.

 

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AA: click here for Harrisburg Milb.com stats

• Gilliam: D,A+,D,D,D-
• Treinen: B+,B,B,A,C-
• Demny: -> up/back,A-,A+,D,F-
• Karns: returned/11 day layoff,C,A
• Hill: A

• Broderick: still on the D/L: no June Starts
• Tatusko A (rain driven spot start->back to AAA)
• Clay: A+,B,A -> promoted
• Rauh: demoted
• Jordan: A,A+,A+,A+,A- (pitch limit) -> promoted

Harrisburg’s rotation has now been picked twice by the Nats for a starter to promote; Nathan Karns struggled in 3 spot starts before being returned and looked rusty in his return, while Taylor Jordan‘s 2013 continues to be magical as he holds a sub 3.00 ERA through his two MLB starts (though he’s likely to be returned once all the Nats regular rotation guys return from D/L stints).  As for the rest of the Harrisburg Rotation in June: Rob Gilliam has mostly struggled since his promotion.  Blake Treinen continues to be the staff work-horse, leading the team in starts and innings.  Paul Demny got a spot start in AAA that seemed more due to schedule availability than performance; Demny continues to sport the same mid 4.00 ERA that he’s had essentially for his whole career in the Nats farm system.  Taylor Hill has had a couple of very nice debut starts on the heels of a sterling run of starts in Potomac.

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High-A:  click here for Potomac Milb.com stats

• Ray: A,A,F,D-,C+
• Cole: B-,A+,A,B-,C+
• Pineyro: D
• Schwartz: A,F,D+,C-

• Rauh F,A
• Detwiler: C- rehab
• Solis: C-,C- -> shelved for weeks

• Sylvestre: D->demoted back to short/A spot start
• Hill: A+,A,A+,A- -> promoted

Robbie Ray and A.J Cole continue to be the Potomac workhorses, both being high over-slot 2010 high school pitcher draftees and both with highly varying degrees of expectations both from Nats prospect followers and from the organization.  Both guys pitched in a double header that new Delaware resident Keith Law took in and he posted his 6/30/13 blog review of all the starters involved.   The link is insider-only (which everyone should be who wants to read ESPN’s premier content) but Law’s consensus seems to be this: Cole’s taken a step back since his last (2011) opinion and Ray is only projecting as a 5th starter at best.  You’d hope for more out of these two guys, given their draft pedigree and bonus money paid.  Sammy Solis threw 2 early June starts and hasn’t appeared since in a concerning development for the 2010 2nd rounder coming back from TJ surgery.   Ivan Pineyro‘s high-A debut went roughly, but he’ll presumably get a few more chances with few other viable candiates right now.  Despite a couple of up-and-down June starts Blake Schwartz maintains the best season-long numbers of any of Potomac starter right now.  And i’ll make mention of it here; its amazing to think that Taylor Jordan started 2013 as the #2 starter in Potomac and is now making (near) quality starts in the majors.

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Low-A: click here for Hagerstown Milb.com stats

• Anderson: D,A+,D+,D-
• Mooneyham: D-/short,A-,B,D,A-
• Lee: B-,A-,C,F,C+
• Encarnation: B,F,D (took one for the team),C
• Purke: A,D,B-,A-,A+

• Rauh: C

• Lopez: D+->back down from spot-start
• RPena:  ->demoted to bullpen?->7 day d/l
• Hudgins: -> demoted to short/A

Dixon Anderson and Pedro Encarnacion‘s monthly grade lines look poor, but their season-long stats are still decent (ERAs of right around 3.20, WHIPs of right around 1.2, about 2-1 K/BB ratios).   Brett Mooneyham‘s starts are looking dominant as they should be, repeating the level as a college draftee.  Matthew Purke‘s performances were a highlight for Nats farm system fans everywhere; after the month ended he was promoted to Potomac.   As for the rest of the starters, there’s room for concern.  Nick Lee and Ronald Pena both sport 1.50 WHIPs.   Hagerstown has already graduated a number of arms this season and may struggle to re-stock.

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Short-A: click here for Auburn Milb.com stats

• Turnbull: A,C-
• Johansen: B+,C
• Orlan: C+,A,C-
• DWilliams: B,D,F
• Barrientos: A-

• Selsor: | | B-,F,C+
• Hudgins: | | B-

• Lopez: | | F- -> demoted

Auburn’s season kicked off June 17th, so we’ve only gotten a brief glimpse of the “Rotation.”  So far, some up and down.  Kyle Turnbull has looked good (as he very well should, having been demoted from full-season ball).  Robert Orlan‘s ERA looks great (1.38) but his walks are too high (9 in 13 innings).  Speaking of walks, Joel Barrientos has 12 walks against 3 strikeouts in his 11 2/3 innings so far; that’s not going to be sustainable.  Deion Williams has been hit hard thus far.  And 2013 2nd round (our first pick) Jake Johansen has three relatively wild outings under his belt; 8 innings, 8 walks, 8 strikeouts.  Of note; Reynaldo Lopez‘s “F-” outing was a 1 1/3, 7 run debacle giving him a nifty 47.25 ERA.

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GCL: click here for GCL-Nationals Stats on MiLB.com

• Suero: A,D
• JRodriguez: B-,A
• Silvestre: A,C
• Valdez: C+
• Voth: B-

• DRamos: A

As with Auburn, the GCL season didn’t start until mid June (June 21st to be exact) so the “rotation” is still shaking out.  And frankly, those who get “starts” aren’t exactly pitching “starter” outings.  For example: the IP leader at the time of this writing is Jefry Rodriguez with 10 2/3 thrown over 3 starts.  So the letter grades here are mostly  misleading, given that they’re for 2-3 inning stints.  Nonetheless, Wander Suero, Ryan Ulliman, and Austin Voth look good in the early goings.

In 2011, I managed to do “Rotational Review” posts for both the MLB team and the minor league system for the whole summer.   That turned out to be a pretty hefty time commitment, and an endeavor that I couldn’t keep up with.  I managed to do all 33 MLB rotation reviews but gave up on the minor league systems around the all-star break. For the entirety of 2012 I never once published much of an in-season look at any of the minor league teams.  But I want to stay aware of the minor league pitchers; its basically the reason I started this blog.  I wanted to be up on the rising talent, always on the lookout for the next home grown pitching talent.

In 2013, I’ve modified my approach.  With the help of daily doses of Luke Erickson‘s NationalsProspects.com daily looks, I’m taking the time to give a quick “grade” to each Starter’s outing by looking at the stat-line and the peripherals, in order to gauge how guys are looking.  Instead of the previous “good-bad-soso” analysis, I’ve adopted somewhat of a letter grade system, from A+ to F.  It isn’t a hard and fast grading system, but generally speaking we start with a run-of-the-mill quality start being graded a C (lets face it, 3 earned runs in 6 innings for a 4.50 ERA is average) and then go from there.  6 shutout innings gets somewhere between an A+ and an A- depending on # of hits/walks/Ks, while a complete meltdown (e.g. 7 runs in 3 innings) earns an F.  You get the idea.

So, without further ado, here’s the April 2013 look at the starters by team, with grades for outings and some commentary.  We’ll do an expanded view of the MLB rotation in the next post.  The grades are through 4/30’s outings; the stats may be slightly off since I wrote the bulk of this prior to this morning.

AAA Rotation

• Ohlendorf: A,B,D+,D,C-
• Young: F,D
• Maya: C,D,D,F,D-
• Perry: D-,B+,C-,B
• Rosenbaum: A-,A,C+,A

• Roark: A,D,F->demoted to bullpen,A
• Tatusko: D,A-

Discussion: Syracuse YTD Stats are here for reference

(A quick note explaining the notation; the top 5 pitchers are the current rotation, and guys who have been starters before promotions or demotions, or who have spot starts are noted below the current rotational members.  The rotation is listed in current appearance order).

So far, the AAA rotation (which i like to call the “desperately seeking to find an injury backup starter” group) has been mostly a mess this year.  Former Major league starters Ross Ohlendorf and Chris Young sport ERAs of 5.46 and 9.00 respectively.  Yunesky Maya has been even worse; a 7.45 ERA and a 1.62 whip.  Ryan Perry rebounded after a rough debut outing.  Tanner Roark was holding Young’s rotation spot and was either excellent or awful; even with two grade-A outings he’s sporting an 8.44 ERA in 21 1/3 innings.  Only Danny Rosenbaum has shown himself worthy of a potential call up; after trying out for the Colorado rotation all spring on a Rule-5 invitation, he was returned and has really thrown well in Syracuse.  (side note on Rosenbaum; is he now officially “Daniel?”  Sort of how we went from Tom Milone to Tommy?  I’ll have to update all my tags in the blog system).

In the Bullpen, Erik Davis, Fernando Abad and JC Romero each sport sub 1.00 ERAs in relief; the rest of the bullpen ranges from mediocre to awful.  As noted in a prior post comment, there’s not a lot of relief backup were one of our MLB arms to go down.  Davis is showing why the team protected him last November though.

AA Rotation

• Broderick: C-,C+,B-,F,B-
• Treinen: F,D,A,C,B+
• Demny: A-,D,C,C-,F
• Clay: D,A,A,C,B+
• Karns: F,A,A,B+

• Holder: C

Discussion: Harrisburg YTD Stats are here for reference

As with Syracuse, there’s a lot of up-and-down so far in Harrisburg.  Brian Broderick, who should be in AAA frankly, is barely holding on in AA.  He’s yet to have anywhere close to a dominant outing.  Blake Treinen (throw-in from the Michael Morse trade) started really slow and has clawed his way back to respectability.  Paul Demny has been up and down too.  Caleb Clay (a MLFA signing who spent 6 years in the Boston organization) has been surprisingly sucessful as an Eastern League starter; he was relatively UNsuccessful the last two years playing for Boston’s AA affiliate in the same league as a middle reliever.  We’ll see if he can keep this up.  Lastly Nathan Karns, who in my mind is the “next best Nats starter prospect” to keep an eye on (with apologies to Rosenbaum, AJ Cole and Lucas Giolito) himself rebounded from an awful 2013 debut to put in 3 dominant starts.  He now sits with a 3.80 ERA and 29 ks in 21 innings through 5 starts with nearly a 4/1 K/BB ratio.

Trevor Holder got a spot start and has been otherwise decent.  Ian Krol (the PTBNL in the Morse trade) has been lights out; one run allowed in 13+ innings so far.  Michael Broadway, who we picked up as a MLFA just a few days before the season started, has also been good in short sample sizes.   Aaron Barrett has 4 saves and 15 ks to just 3 walks in his 11 innings this month.  Most of the rest of the Harrisburg bullpen are showing great K/9 rates right now with good numbers thus far.

High-A Rotation

• Ray: A-,B,B-,A,A
• Jordan: A,B,B+,B-,B-
• Cole: D,B,D,D,C+
• Schwartz: A,A
• Hill: C+,A-,A+,C,C-

• Turnbull: D-,D,F->demoted

Discussion: Potomac YTD Stats are here for reference

Potomac is led by a series of guys who are all on good rolls.  Robbie Ray, Taylor Jordan and Taylor Hill each are sporting sub 2.00 ERAs at the end of the month.  Hill’s outings are a combination of excellent and mediocre; his stat line looks better than his Start grade line.  Kylin Turnbull turned out not to be ready for High-A, but his promoted replacement Blake Schwartz certainly looked like he was ready in his first start (6ip, 3hits, zero runs) and followed up that outing with another dominant outing on 4/30.   Only A.J. Cole has really struggled out of this group, a disappointing start so far for the re-captured prospect.   Is High-A going to turn out to be his tripping point?  The California league is tough on hitters, but the Carolina league isn’t; what is going on with Cole?

In the bullpen, Tyler Herron has an amazing 20 Ks in 10 1/3 innings, while Richie Mirowski has given up just 4 hits in his 10+ innings of work for the month.

Low-A Rotation

• Anderson: B+,B+,A,B,A
• Turnbull: A
• Pineyro: D,D,Inc,C-,A+
• RPena: B,F,D,A-,B+
• Encarnation: B+,C-,C-

• Schwartz: B+,A,B-,A+->promoted
• Mooneyham: B-,A,A->dl
• Dupra: B,A,B-,D->promoted

• Rauh: C,C,B-,D-
• Fischer: A+
• Hudgins: A,A-

Discussion: Hagerstown YTD Stats are here for reference

Hagerstown has a “rotation,” and then they have something akin to a “tandem” pitching plan in place, where the 2nd guy in goes nearly as long as the starter.  Hence the larger number of guys who are given grades on their “starts,” when in reality guys in the lower group don’t have any starts.  If a guy goes 3-4 innings in a game, they generally have a grade here.

Dixon Anderson is leading the way with 5 excellent outings and a 2.25 era/0.87 whip.  Brett Mooneyham had three good starts as well before hitting the D/L.  Schwartz proved too dominant in his 4 outings (21 Ks in 14 innnings) and was promoted; Dupra’s line earned him a promotion as well.  Pedro Encarnation is finally putting it together outside of short-season.  Turnbull looked very dominant in his low-A return as expected.   David Fischer and Wil Hudgins longer outings may have been good, but their other outings have drug down their stat lines.  DSL grad Pineyro is somewhat holding his own in full-season ball, with up and down nights that hopefully will even out.  Lastly Ronald Pena is living up to his “sleeper” potential; the 16th round 2012 draft pick has picked up right where he left off in full-season ball.

We’re getting down to the wire; There’s only three more of these posts coming, because the rotation only makes 3 more passes before the season is over.  Because of the off-day on 9/19 and the double-header 9/20, Milone pitched BEFORE Detwiler’s start in this “cycle” so the end of cycle #31 bleeds over into the beginning of cycle #32.

Good

• Tommy Milone looked great on 9/15 (box/gamer), shutting down a weak NY Mets offense and getting his first MLB victory.  The Mets started 5 guys who were on their AAA roster a month ago, so its somewhat difficult to get a read on Milone’s capabilities on the day.  But he did go 5 2/3, gave up 1 run on 3 hits with 3 walks (one intentional).  The walks are surprising; Milone’s calling card and the way he’ll survive is by NOT allowing walks.
• Day 3 of the return of Stephen Strasburg on 9/17 (box/gamer) went much better for the kid; his velocity was back, he was efficient (6ip on 61 pitches), he was accurate (0 walks and 45 of 61 pitches for strikes) and he was dominant (1 run on 4 hits and 3 Ks).  Can’t ask for much more than that.  Too bad he got a no-decision as his offense couldn’t get him more than one run against the Marlin’s #5 starter Volstad.
• Ross Detwiler put in perhaps his best start in a Nats uniform in the back side of 9/20’s double header (box/gamer), holding an (admittedly weaker) Phillies lineup to just 3 hits over 7 1/3.  Ross was sitting on just 81 pitches when departing in the 8th, efficiently working through the lineup.

Mediocre/Inconclusive

• John Lannan bounced back from a poor start last week with an improved on on 9/16 (box/gamer).  6ip, 3runs on 8 hits and a walk.  I think we know what we have in Lannan by now, and I’m sure he feels lonely as the sole remaining rotation guy from opening day.
• A 7th inning homer turned Chien-Ming Wang‘s 9/18 start (box/gamer) from a good one to just merely a run of the mill quality start, but there’s definite promise in Wang’s performances as of late.  He went 6 2/3, gave up 3 runs on 6 hits with zero walks and 5 Ks.  Two homers hurt the sinkerballer.

Starter Trends

Milone    bad,soso,good
Lannan    good,good,bad,soso,good,bad,bad,good,soso,good,bad,soso
Strasburg    great,soso,good
Detwiler    soso,soso,good,good,bad,bad,soso,great
Wang        bad,bad,great,soso,soso,good,bad,soso,soso,soso
Peacock    good

Relievers of Note and other News

• (not much in the way of links and notes here; I was gone all weekend and just did very rudimentary reviews.  A future post is in the works for my weekend trip, which will be of significant interest to baseball fans).
• Drew Storen gets two saves in one day on 9/20: that’s pretty rare in this modern age of innings limits and coddling relievers.
• Quick report that the team is scouting FA-to-be CJ Wilson.   The 2011 off season FA market is so thin on quality starting pitching that Wilson, who has had two pretty good seasons after pitching in relief the early part of his career, may be the leading starter out there on the market (i’m not counting CC Sabathia, who almost certainly opts out and re-signs for more money).  One complication: Wilson will be a Type-A free agent, costing the Nats a pick.  And guess what?  This little end-of-the-season run now has the team perilously close to having a non-protected first round draft pick.  Is CJ Wilson worth giving up the 16th overall pick in the draft?

Here are the daily links from NationalsProspects, for reference below:

• Wednesday 7/6 game reviews (Martin, Martis, Demny, Ray, Bates, Karns)
• Thursday 7/7 game reviews (Milone, Wang (rehab), Selik, Cole, Demmin, GCL off)
• Friday 7/8 game reviews (Stammen, Harrisburg rainout, Rosenbaum, Hagerstown rainout, Dupra, Baez)
• Saturday 7/9 game reviews (Maya, Davis/Roark, Olbrychowski, Grace/Jordan, Estevez, Medina/Encarnation)
• Sunday 7/10 game reviews (Gaudin rehab, Arneson, Solis, Applebee, Meza, McKenzie)

Good

• Tough loss for JD Martin on 7/6: He gave up 2 hits over 6 innings but both were solo homers in a 2-0 loss.
• Shairon Martis again dominated a AA team on 7/6 (on day 2 of Harper-mania); 7IP, 4H, ER, 2B, 6K.  Byron Kerr featured this start on masnsports.com
• Another excellent start for Robbie Ray on 7/6: 6IP, 4H, 0R, 2BB, 7K.
• Nathan Karns put in his latest statement game in the GCL on 7/6: 4IP, 0H, 0R, BB, 6K.  Its time to promote him.
• Fantastic Start for Tommy Milone on 7/7: 7IP, 2H, 0R, 2BB, 6K
• Another great re-hab start for Chien Ming Wang on 7/7: 5IP, 2H, 0R, 0BB, 2K.
• AJ Cole continues to impress as a youngster in low-A.  7/7 line: 6IP, 3H, 0R, 0BB, 7K.
• Erik Davis got 10 ks in 5 innings on 7/8 but still managed to lose: 5IP, 6H, 3R, 3ER, 0BB, 10K, HR.
• Taylor Jordan won the nightcap on 7/9 for Hagerstown with an excellent outing: 7IP, 4H, 0R, 0BB, 2K.
• Wirkin Estevez put in an excellent outing for Auburn on  7/9: 6IP, 4H, 0R, BB, 7K.
• Silvio Medina (who I thought had been promoted out of the GCL) was dominant on 7/9: 4IP, 3H, 2R, 0ER, 0BB, 7K.
• An excellent 2nd Potomac start for Sammy Solis on 7/10: 7IP, 4H, 0ER, 2BB, 5K.  This is the pitcher we’ve been waiting for.

Bad

• Cameron Selik just can’t make the adjustment to high-A, taking another loss on 7/7: 5IP, 6H, 4R, 4ER, 3BB, 2K.
• Ryan Demmin took another bad loss for Auburn on 7/7: 5⅓ IP, 5H, 4H, 4ER, 0BB, 2K, 2HR.
• Brian Dupra got a spot start (?) for Auburn on 7/8 and got knocked around a bit: 4⅔ IP, 7H, 4R, 3ER, 0BB, 5K.
• Gregory Baez didn’t finish the third inning for the GCL on 7/8: 2⅔ IP, 4H, 4R, 4ER, 3BB, 4K, HR.   But it wasn’t his fault the team lost; his bullpen gave up another 13 runs.
• Yunesky Maya threw another egg on 7/9: 5IP, 9H, 4R, 4ER, 0BB, 0K.
• Tanner Roark got battered around on 7/9 after returning from the inactive list: 3⅔ IP, 7H, 4R, 4ER, 3BB, 4K.  Its his third such bad outing in a row but unless someone comes off the DL, it doesn’t seem like there’s a natural replacement for him.
• Adam Olbrychowski got scorched in Potomac on 7/9: 4⅔ IP, 11H, 7R, 6ER, 2BB, 2K
• Matt Grace didn’t have the best outing on 7/9 either: 1ip, 5H, 4R, 4ER, 0BB, 0K, 0HR.  Yanked after the first, Steve McCatty came in and pitched long relief to get the win.
• Pedro Encarnation, who can’t seem to catch a break, got battered for the GCL Nats on 7/9: 3IP, 6H, 6R, 6ER, BB, 2K, 2HR.
• Not the best rehab start for Chad Gaudin on 7/10: 4IP, 7H, 4ER, 6K, 0BB.  Seven hits and 6 Ks.  At least he didn’t walk anyone.
• Christian Meza added more runs to his ERA on 7/10 in Auburn: 4⅓ IP, 8H, 6R, 5ER, 2BB, 3K.
• Christopher McKenzie seemed to get of the schnide for the GCL on 7/10: 5IP, 2H, 0R, 0BB, 7K.

Mediocre/Inconclusive

• A bit of an unlucky 7/6 start for Paul Demny: 7IP, 6H, 4R, 4ER, BB, 3K, HR.
• Colin Bates proved to be an escape artist on 7/6: 5IP, 8H, 1R, 0ER, 2BB, K.  That’s 10 baserunners in 5 innings but only gave up one unearned run.
• Craig Stammen had a soso start on 7/8: 6IP, 5H, 3R, 2ER, 2BB, 4K, HR.   A quality start for sure, but nothing dominant.
• Danny Rosenbaum didn’t pitch that badly on 7/8, but took the loss nonetheless.  5IP, 6H, 4R, 1ER, 3BB, 4K, HR
• Erik Arneson was pretty good for Harrisburg on 7/10: 6IP 7H, 3ER, 2BB, 8K.  I’m a tough grader for guys who have pitched above the level they’re currently playing.
• Paul Applebee pitched a decent start for Hagerstown on 7/10: 5IP, 4H, 2ER, 0BB, 3K.  He seems to have earned his way back into the Hagerstown rotation.  At least until we figure out what happened to Bobby Hansen.

Relievers of Note and other Thoughts

• Its really hard to tell who is in the “rotation” in the GCL.  As you’ll see, Baez “started” a game wednesday and then again saturday.  King, Mieses and Karns all were skipped this time around.
• So far so good with the JC Romero experiment.  He’s had several outings that have all gone pretty well.
• Tommy Milone got a well-earned International League all-star spot this week.  See you in September!
• Brad Peacock‘s performance this year has vaulted him into the Baseball America mid-season top 50.  Bryce Harper, now the youngest player in AA, is the new #1, overtaking Angels OF prospect Mike Trout.   Peacock is still listed as having a #3/#4 starter ceiling; this coincides with concerns i’ve read over his 3rd and (lack of a) 4th pitch.
• Potomac, after being disappointed by the missing of Harper, may be making alternate plans to build a new facility.  According to this Baseball America link, the owner Art Silber is announcing later this month a new site and new plans.

Trends

Top 3 starters deserving promotion: Karns, Ray, Milone
Top 3 starters whose jobs are in jeopardy: Roark, Selik, Meza

Here are the daily links from NationalsProspects, for reference below:

• Friday 7/1 game reviews (Martin, Martis, Selik, Ray, Bates, Baez).
• Saturday 7/2 game reviews (Milone, Davis & Perez, Wang (rehab), Cole, Demmin, GCL off)
• Sunday 7/3 game reviews (Stammen, Roark, Rosenbaum, Grace, Estevez, Marcelino)
• Monday 7/4 game reviews (Maya, Peacock, Olbrychowski, Jordan, Meza, McKenzie)
• Tuesday 7/5 game reviews (Gaudin, Arneson, Solis, Applebee, MRodriguez & Lopez, King)

Good

• Shairon Martis had another dominant start in AA: 6IP, 7H, 2R, 1ER, BB, 6K, HR.  He needs to move up.
• Another good start for Robbie Ray on 7/1: 6IP, 5H, 3R, ER, 2BB, 6K, reversing his slide over the past few games.
• Gregory Baez had a nice little 4-inning “start” on 7/1: 4ip, 2hits, 0 runs, 3Ks and 1BB.
• Another excellent start for Tom Milone on 7/2: 6⅓ IP, 4H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 6K.  Unfortunately the most deserving AAA starter is NOT getting the spot start for the big club this week, as Detwiler’s improved form an Milone’s lack of 40-man status conspires against him.  No worries Tom; your time will come (perhaps as Zimmermann’s innings-limit replacement in late august).
• Chien-Ming Wang threw his 2nd rehab start on 7/2, this time in high-A for Potomac.  As Adam Kilgore reports, he pitched 4 scoreless inning, allowing 1 hit and 2 walks.  He reportedly hit 91mph, which is great news.  I pulled the Pitch f/x data from Wang’s 2007 season prior to his injury to try to get a feel for what he was capable of back then.  Here’s the data from June 6th, 2007, one of Wang’s best games that season.  Average fastball of 94, peaks of 97, with great separation between his fastball and his change-up.  I didn’t realize he threw that hard (if you believe the Pitch f/x data; it is spotty that early in the system’s history).  If the goal is to get his speed back to 94-97, he’s got a long way to go.
• An excellent start for Matt Grace on 7/3: 7IP, 5H, 2R, 0ER, 0BB, 5K.  Its good to see him rebound from a couple of sub-par performances lately.
• Brad Peacock had an uncharacteristically (for him) wild 7/4 start in Harrisburg but still got the dominant victory.  Line: 6ip, 5hits 1run (unearned), 9ks and 2 bbs.
• Christopher McKenzie surprisingly was given a GCL start on 7/4 and he did pretty well: 4ip, 3hits, 1 unearned run, 4Ks and 1 walk.  He’s clearly too old for
• Paul Applebeee had an excellent spot start in Hagerstown (filling in for the newly promoted Solis) on 7/5: 5IP, 4H, 1ER, 0BB, 5K.  Since there’s now a hole in that rotation and the Short-A squad being so inconsistent, I wonder if Applebee sticks there for a bit.

Bad

• Cameron Selik got waxed in Potomac on 7/1: 5+ IP, 9H, 5R, 5ER, BB, 2K, HR.
• Paul Demmin took a step backwards for Auburn on 7/2: 4⅔ IP, 8H, 5R, 5ER, BB, 4K, 2HR.
• Tanner Roark got tagged for 2 homers in 5 innings en route to another loss.  Line: 5ip, 7H, 4ER, 3BB, 6K, 2 HR, HBP.  10 baserunners in 5 innings continues a mediocre season for Roark.
• Wirkin Estevez continued his up-and-down performances for Auburn on 7/3: 4IP, 6H, 4R, 4ER, BB, 2K.    Two good, two bad so far for the DSL grad.
• Anthony Marcelino got pounded in the GCL on 7/3: 3⅓ IP, 7H, 9R, 6ER, 3BB, 2K.  This was his first start but his third appearance and none have gone very well.
• Christian Meza struggled in Auburn on 7/4 badly, getting knocked around for 5runs on 5 hits in 2 2/3 innings.
• Brandon King got pounded in the GCL on 7/5: 2⅔ IP, 6H, 7R, 7ER, 2BB, 2K, HR.

Mediocre/Inconclusive

• JD Martin‘s 7/1 spot start was barely mediocre.  5⅔ IP, 10H, 3R, 3ER, 0BB, 2K, HR.   Though I’ll ask the audience, at what point does Martin stop becoming a “spot starter?”  He’s got 9 on the season thus far.  I guess this is what AAA teams do, needing a 6th starter for most of the season as guys move up and out.
• Colin Bates had an interesting 7/1 start: 5⅓ IP, 4H, 3R, 3ER, 3BB, 0K.  No strikeouts in 5+ innings, that may be a first for a starter in our system this year.
• Was Erik Davis “pitching to the score” in Harrisburg on 7/2?  Final line: 7IP, 10H, 3ER, 0BB, 4K, HR.  It was 10-0 heading into the bottom of the third.  Perhaps so; certainly with a 10 run lead i’d be in experimentation mode, not necessarily buckle down mode as a starter.
• Oliver Perez returned from the DL for the 2nd half of 7/2’s double header and put in a mediocre start.  4⅔ IP, 7H, 3R, 2ER, 2BB, 4K.  See the notes section for my thoughts on the franchise’s use of Perez right now.
• AJ Cole pitched decently enough, but for only 4 innings, for Hagerstown on 7/2: 4IP, 5H, 3ER, BB, 4K.  Not sure why he was taken out so soon.
• Another quality start for Craig Stammen in Syracuse on 7/3: 6IP, 8H, 3ER, BB, 5K, HR.  He needs to do more to earn a return trip to the MLB.
• Danny Rosenbaum was struggling for Potomac on 7/3 when the game got washed away (along with many trees in the area) on 7/3.
• Yuniesky Maya struggled with his control on 7/4 but still pitched a quality start.  6 2/3, 5hits, 2 runs (both earned), 5Ks and 3 walks.
• Adam Olbrychowski‘s 7/4 start wasn’t terrible, but it was enough to take the loss.  6ip, 7 hits, 4 runs, 4 Ks and 0 walks.
• Taylor Jordan kept Hagerstown in the game on 7/4, but didn’t get the victory.  Line: 5 1/3, 7hits, 2runs, 5ks and 2 walks.  Not bad, but not excellent either.
• It was “reliever night” in Syracuse on 7/5, with Chad Gaudin getting a rehab start (line: 2⅔ IP, 2H, 3R, 0ER, 2BB, 2K), and 4 other relievers then pouring gasoline on the fire of a 11-6 loss.
• Erik Arneson went 6 2/3 for Harrisburg on 7/6, good enough for the win.  Line: 6⅔ IP, 7H, 2R, 2ER, 2BB, 4K.  A bit too many baserunners for a “good” in my book.
• Sammy Solis, whose debut in high-A on 7/5 was covered by Byron Kerr here.  He talked more glowingly about it than his line indidates: 6IP, 7H, 3R, 3ER, BB, 5K.  He clearly has good stuff, a 93mph fastball and 2 secondary pitches that he can command, and should continue to fare well for this team.
• Manny Rodriguez‘s 7/5 appearance in Auburn was just ok: 4IP, 5H, 2R, 2ER, BB, 3K.
• Meanwhile, Rodriguez’s 2nd “starter” teammate Kelvin Lopez piched 3 dominant innings for the win the same day: 3IP, 3H, 0R, 0BB, 4K.

Relievers of Note and other Thoughts

• The use of Matt Chico continues to confound.  He had made two scheduled GCL starts, but then his rotation spot was skipped and he worked out of the bullpen on 7/1.  Is he a starter or is he a reliever?  The big-league team could sure use a Loogy (going so far as to sign waived Philadelphia reject JC Romero recently), and Chico has MLB experience.  I’m surprised they’re not pushing him into this kind of role.  That being said, he did a late-inning stint on 7/4 and got hit badly in the GCL, an embarassing outing that may mean he’s closer to the door than the majors.
• Speaking of potential LOOGYs in the majors, why do we continues to use Oliver Perez as a starter in AA?  Why don’t we try him out as a situational reliever instead of letting him waste as a starter in a level he is clearly too old and too experienced for?
• Speaking of Perez … if he returns to AA’s rotation (as it seems), who makes way?   Perhaps Erik Arneson …. but he was an all-star for this team.  On form it may end up being Tanner Roark though.  We’ll see next cycle.
• Hassan Pena at Harrisburg got some nice recognition, being named to the Eastern League all star team to replace Peacock (who will pitch in the Futures game).
• In what I consider to be a surprise move, the Nats have decided to have Bryce Harper skip Potomac & High-A ball and go straight to AA.  Potomac uber-fan Sue Dinem posted his (hers?) reaction here and I can’t necessarily refute any of his/her opinions.  If I had to guess I’d say the team is primarily worried about the crummy field in Potomac, perhaps penalizing the local affiliate owner for not taking care of the situation sooner.  From purely a player-development perspective perhaps this is a good move for the team overall; Harper held his own in the AFL against AA talent and this may put him in line for a 2012 spot sooner than we all thought.  Or even a 9/1 callup (though I’d be slightly against this move as it would complicate his arbitration clock).
• Tom Milone‘s continued excellence has earned him the International League’s pitcher of the week award.
• As expected, Ross Detwiler‘s performance as of late has earned him a spot start in the majors.  No matter how well he does, it should be a one-and-done start, but it would be nice to see him throw 6 or 7 clean innings.
• Sammy Solis was promoted to make his normal-rest start in Potomac instead of Hagerstown on 7/5.   Perhaps not necessarily on form but definitely on age and experience, Solis belongs in Potomac as a college draftee and should get a better challenge there.  Solis’s promotion seems to have come at the expense of Evan Bronson in Potomac’s rotation.
• Pedro Encarnation‘s rough start to the season has seemingly earned him a demotion out of Auburn’s rotation, with his normal spot being taken by Meza this turn.  Meza didn’t exactly light it up, so Encarnation could be back.  Update: he got demoted back to the GCL on 7/3.
• Why was Brad Meyers skipped in Syracuse’s rotation?  Gaudin did a rehab start on Meyer’s turn, and Martin is scheduled for 7/7.  Ahh; answer: he was placed on the 7-day DL retroactive to 7/1.
• Christopher Manno had another great outing this week, a 2ip, 5k performance on 7/5.  Maybe the team should be looking at him as a potential Loogy and should start promoting him up the line.
• Mayo and Meza earned quick promotions up to Auburn on 7/3.

Trends

AAA trends (in rotation order)
Detwiler    good,good,soso,soso,bad,soso,bad,bad,bad,soso,soso,good,soso,soso,soso,incomplete (2ip)
Milone    good,soso,soso,bad,great,good,great,soso,good,soso,good,soso,great,good
Stammen    good,soso,great,bad,soso,good,soso,soso,soso,soso->promoted,bad,great,soso,soso
Maya        bad,soso,soso,good,great,good,soso,soso,soso->promoted,bad,good (cut short),soso,soso
Meyers    soso,good,soso,good,bad,soso,bad,good,good,soso

AA Trends:
EDavis    good,soso,good,bad,soso,incomplete (knee injury->dl),soso,good,soso,good,soso,good,incomplete (1ip),soso
OPerez    great,soso (1IP cut short),good,soso,soso-> dl,soso
Roark        bad,good,incomplete (2 ip cut short),soso,soso,awful,good,soso,bad,bad
Peacock    soso,good,great,good,very good,bad,great,great,good,soso,good,good,great,good
Arneson    soso,soso,good,good,soso
Martis     bad,bad,soso,soso,good,bad,good->dl,soso,great,soso,great,good

High-A Trends:
Rosenbaum    soso,good,good,soso,good,good,soso,bad,good,bad,great,good,soso,good,soso
Olbrychowski soso,good,good,soso
Solis        soso
Demny        good,bad,good,good,soso,soso,bad,bad,soso,soso,soso,great,bad,great
Selik        soso,bad->dl,soso,soso,great,good,soso,good,soso,bad

Low-A Trends:
Grace        good,bad,bad,bad,good,soso,soso,soso,soso,soso,good,soso,awful,soso,good
Jordan    good,soso,good,good->dl,soso,soso,soso,good,good,bad,soso,soso,good,good,soso
Applebee    bad,soso,bad,good,good
Ray        great,great,good,2ip short outing,good,great,soso,soso,bad,good
Cole        soso,soso,bad,good,good,soso

Short-A Trends
Bates        good,great,soso
Demmin    good,good,good,bad
Estevez    bad,great,good,bad
Meza        bad
MRodriguez    good,bad,soso
KLopez    bad,soso,bad,good
(Encarnation    bad,bad,soso->demoted to bullpen)

GCL Trends
Karns        soso,great,great
Baez        great
(Marcelino    awful)
Mieses    good,good
Meza        great,good
(McKenzie    good)
King        awful,great,awful

(Chico    good,great->back to bullpen?)

Here are the daily links from NationalsProspects, for reference below:

• Sunday 6/26 game reviews (Detwiler, Martis, Selik, Ray, Bates, Chico).
• Monday 6/27 game reviews (Milone, Roark, Rosenbaum, Wang & Cole, Demmin, GCL off)
• Tuesday 6/28 game reviews (Stammen, Davis, Olbrychowski, Grace, Estevez, Mieses & Meza)
• Wednesday 6/29 game reviews (Maya, Peacock, Bronson, Jordan, Encarnation, King)
• Thursday 6/30 game reviews (Detwiler & Meyers, Arneson, Demny, Solis, MRodriguez & Lopez, Karns)

Good

• Shairon Martis continues to prove what we already should know, that a former MLB starter can dominate in AA, by striking out 10 over 8+ innings on 6/26.  His performance was featured on milb.com.
• Matt Chico pitched 5 solid innings in the GCL on 6/26: 5IP, 2H, 0R, 1BB, 3K.  Why??  If he’s re-habbing in the GCL that’s fine, but this team has TOO many starters in the AA/AAA level right now and i’m not entirely sure where Chico is going to go.  Perhaps he’s getting stretched out to feature as a trade candidate.
• Wirkin Estevez bounced back (as noted by Byron Kerr here) and pitched 5 nearly no-hit innings on 6/26.
• Tom Milone continues his outstanding run in AAA on 6/27: 8IP, 3H, 0ER, 0BB, 6K.  He continues to be the minor leaguer most likely to make the next spot start in the Majors despite his lack of 40-man status.
• Danny Rosenbaum fulfilled his “ace” status in Potomac on 6/28: 6IP, 3H, 1R, 1ER, 3BB, 6K.
• AJ Cole got the “relief start” coming in after the rehabbing Wang on 6/27 and was sparkling: 5IP, 2H, 0R, 1BB, 6K.
• Another nice quality start plus outing from Ryan Demmin for short-A on 6/27: 6IP, 3H, 2R, 2ER, 2BB, 6K.    That’s three starts, three good outings and 3 wins in a row for the Potomac washout.  Perhaps he’s refound his mojo.
• Adam Olbrychowski continues to show pitching capabilities in the starter role that he never really showed in relief, going for 6⅔ IP, 4H, 1R, 1ER, 2BB, 4K on 6/28 for Potomac.
• Wirkin Estevez put in his second strong start in a row for Auburn on 6/28: 5IP, 4H, 1R, 1ER, 1BB, 5K.
• Adalaberto Mieses continues the strong pitching in the GCL, going for 5IP, 3H, 1R, 1ER, 3BB, 2K on 6/28.  A bit wild perhaps but he scattered 6 runners effectively enough.
• Christian Meza got the “second start” in the GCL on 6/28, pitching 4 strong innings for the “save.”  4IP, 3H, 0R, 1BB, 3K.
• Another ho-hum dominant performance in AA for Brad Peacock: 5⅔ IP, 1H, 0R, 3BB, 6K, WP.
• Evan Bronson‘s (apparent) return to the rotation in High-A was pretty solid: 7IP, 7H, 3R, 3ER, 0BB, 4K, HR.
• An ugly defensive outing cost Taylor Jordan during a pretty good 6/29 outing: 5⅔ IP, 4H, 3R, 0ER, 3BB, 8K.
• Brandon King threw 5 perfect innings in the GCL on 6/29 before making way for his bullpen.  5IP, 0H, 0R, 0BB, 4K.  You can’t ask for much more than 5 perfect innings after his inauspicious start.
• Another excellent start for Erik Arneson for Harrisburg on 6/30: 6IP, 4H, 0ER, BB, 5K.
• Excellent start by Paul Demny for Potomac on 6/30: 7IP, 5H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 8K.
• Wow, Nathan Karns looks like he may be healthy and good.  6/30 line: 4IP, 0H, 0R, 0BB, 7K.

Bad

• Robbie Ray seems to be coming back down to earth after a scorching start to his pro season.  On 6/26 he got touched up for 4⅔ IP, 5H, 6R, 5ER, 2BB, 6K, 2HR.  Perhaps he’s getting a big of arm fatigue, going every 5 days for the first time.
• Tanner Roark continues his up and down season, never recovering from a 4-run first and losing on 6/27.  Line: 5IP, 8H, 5ER, 0BB, 5K.
• Manny Rodriguez didn’t get out of the first inning on 6/30: ⅓ 3H, 6R, 5ER, 1BB, 0K, HBP.
• Rodriguez’s relief Kelvin Lopez didn’t fare much better: 3⅔ IP, 5H, 5R, 4ER, 2BB, 4K, 2-2 IR-S.

Mediocre/Inconclusive

• Ross Detwiler put in an oddly short 6/26 start: 5IP, 4H, 2R, ER, 2BB, 4K.   I wouldn’t call it great, but at least it wasn’t bad.
• Cameron Selik put in a similar line to Detwilers on 6/26: 5IP, 4H, 5R, 1ER, 2BB, 1K.  Not bad, but not great.  You can’t fault the pitcher when he gives up four earned runs in 5 innings.  Selik was rather wild on the day, with a HBP and two wild pitches.
• Colin Bates had a near-quality start on 6/26 in Auburn: 5IP, 5H, 2R, 2ER, 2BB, 3K.   That’s three effective starts in a row for Bates in Short-A.
• Chien-Ming Wang made his first rehab start, and his first professional appearance for this team after two contracts and several million dollars, in Hagerstown on 6/27.    Adam Kilgore reported on the important appearance at the NatsJournal blog here, saying that he showed decent speed (86-88, topping at 90), with good movement and his sinker working (6/1 go/ao ratio).  Hmm.  This actually sounds pretty promising.  Final line: 3IP, 4H, 2R, 2ER, 0BB, 3K, HBP.  It is good to finally see him pitching in a Nats uniform.
• An up and down outing for Craig Stammen on 6/28: 5.1IP, 9H, 5ER, BB, 9K.  I like the K/9 rate, but don’t like the whip on the game (around 2.0).  He gets a win for his efforts though, as Syracuse’s hitters are pounding the ball right now.
• Erik Davis‘s 6/28 start in Harrisburg was suspended in the top of the 1st; I’m guessing he works out of the bullpen the next few days so as to stay sharp.
• Another decent start for Matt Grace for Hagerstown on 6/28: 5IP, 5H, 3R, 2ER, 1BB, 5K.  Not quite enough for the QS but good enough.
• Not the best outing for Yuniesky Maya (6IP, 7H, 4ER, BB, 6K, HR, HBP) on 6/29.    It wasn’t that awful, turning 9 baserunners into 4 runs, but continues the theme for 2011 for Maya.
• Pedro Encarnation continues his mediocre start to the season with another unimpressive performance on 6/29: 4IP, 5H, 3R, 3ER, 2BB, 2K.
• Ross Detwiler pitched 2 shutout innings on 6/30, in an abbreviated “start” that probably is a precursor to his coming up and pitching sometime over the weekend to help offset the doubleheader on 7/2.
• Brad Meyers gave up a ton of baserunners through 6 innings of a relief start on 6/30: 6IP, 10H, 3R, 3ER, BB, 3K.
• Sammy Solis gave up a ton of hits but scattred them well enough on 6/30: 6IP, 11H, 3ER, 0BB, 6K.  A rather similar line to Meyers honestly.

Relievers of Note and other Thoughts

• Masn.com’s Byron Kerr continues his excellent coverage of the Nats farm hands with an overview of 2011 10th rounder Manny Rodriguez, pitching in Auburn.
• Byron Kerr posted on 6/29 with a look at Peacock’s mechanics adjustments, which have allowed him to make great advances in his quality as a starter.  The adjustment he’s made has been to do a better job of concealing the baseball prior to its release.  Peacock has hit 97 this year, sits 93-94, and has really good change-up separation (83-85mph on the change).  His secondary pitches have always been the criticism from scouts; he’s been working on his curveball command and its not clear if he has a 4th pitch right now.  I think to be successful at the upper levels he needs a 4th pitch; a cutter, a slider or a 2-seam sinking fastball are the logical candidates.
• Baseball America featured Sammy Solis on 6/29 (possibly insider only).  Per the report, Solis’s injuries slowed his first pro season (as we all know) and that he’s been slowly building up to 100-pitch limits per night.  He has added a cut-fastball to his existing 3-pitch repertoire (4-seamer, changeup and curve).
• Brad Peacock‘s year of accolades continues with his naming (along with Erik Arneson) to the Eastern League All-star team. The Harrisburg team placed 5 guys to the all star roster all told.
• Trevor Holder finally seems to have been removed from the Potomac rotation after a first half of forgettable numbers (Bronson started in his place on 6/29).  We’ll see if it was a one-off occurrence.

Top 3 starters deserving promotion not named Peacock: Milone, Arneson, Karns
Top 3 starters whose jobs are in jeopardy: Roark, Encarnation, Kopez

Both the Carolina league and the South Atlantic league start this cycle on all-star break.  We had various members of Potomac and Hagerstown make and play in the all star games.  See the Tuesday 6/21 link below for a quick review of all-star game participants.

Note on how I’m defining “starters” for this post: since the short-seasons generally are easing pitchers into future starting roles, there’s sometimes two starters listed per game.  Especially if one guy starts and goes 3 innings, then another goes for 3-4 afterwards.  I’ll mention both these players for each game they do this, hoping that eventually the rotations will stabilize.

Here are the daily links from NationalsProspects, for reference below:

• Tuesday 6/21 game reviews (Martin, Martis, Potomac off, Hagerstown off, Bates, Chico & Mieses)
• Wednesday 6/22 game reviews (Milone, Roark, Potomac off, Hagerstown off, Demmin, GCL Off)
• Thursday 6/23 game reviews (Stammen, Davis, Olbrychowski, Grace, Estevez, King)
• Friday 6/24 game reviews (Maya, Peacock, Holder, Jordan, Encarnation, Karns & Meza)
• Saturday 6/25 game reviews (Tatusko & Meyers, Arneson, Demny, Solis, MRodriguez & KLopez, Baez)

Good

• JD Martin had a nice 6/21 start; 6ip, 2er (on a 2 run homer).  Was this a spot start?  (See news and notes section).
• Colin Bates had his second nice “start” in a row (since his previous appearance was actually in relief).  5 innings of one-hit ball to continue Auburn’s nice start to the season.  The Citizen posted an interesting human-interest story about Bates here at auburnpub.com (where you can get an RSS feed of Doubleday stories).
• Matt Chico had a decent rehab start in the GCL; 4 innings, 4 hits and just one run.  Why is he getting stretched out?  He’s been in a situational lefty role all year, and there’s no room for starters in AAA.  If anything, the team needs to replace LOOGY Doug Slaten in the majors, and Chico could be a logical candidate.
• Adalberto Mieses got the “relief start” in the GCL on 6/21 and pitched well.  4ip, 3 hits, one run with 4 ks.  A good stateside start for the DSL 2010 graduate.
• Tom Milone‘s 6/22 start was a tale of two innings.  6ip, 5hits and 3 runs despite 0 walks and 7Ks.   He gave up a run in the 3rd by advancing a runner into scoring position via a Balk, then giving up a bloop hit.  In the 6th he gave up a double then a homer to turn 5 baserunners into 3 runs and give his line a mediocre feeling.  In reality 5 baserunners in 6 innings is pretty good, and Milone departed having completed 6 innings with a 7-3 lead after only 81 pitches.  It seems to me he could probably have gone at least 8, but Gaudin needed some rehab work.  The nights work extends his ridiculously good k/bb ratio on the season to 89/5 in 81 innings.
• Ryan Demmin was dominant for Auburn on 6/22: 5P, 2H, 0R, 2BB, 3K.   As well as he should be, having also dominated this level last year.  Unfortunately, he’s now in short-A for the 2nd year in a row, making him rather “old” for the league.  Lets hope he gets his mojo back and can get back to Potomac.
• Craig Stammen made perhaps his best start of the season (certainly since mid-April) on 6/23: 8.1 IP, 5H, 2R, 0ER, 1BB, 9K.  I’ve always liked Stammen; his FIP and xFIP were 2nd best on the team of any starter in 2010 not named Strasburg.  I always felt he was unlucky on the mound and pitched better than his ERA and W/L record.  What I find interesting is the franchise’s handling of  him; is he a starter or is he a reliever?  He’s been starting all year in Syracuse, but he featured in a relief mode when he was called up earlier this year, and he was demoted to long-relief last year mid-season.  If his best shot at the majors is in a relief mode, then he should be relieving in AAA.  That being said… his numbers in AAA as a starter have been pretty good this season.  Maybe he’s still in line for a starter promotion (though he’s clearly behind Milone for “next guy to get called up”).
• Erik Davis had a good quality start on 6/23: 6IP, 6H, 2R, ER, 2BB, 3K.  Nothing special, not incredibly dominant, but a good consistent performance.  He gives up a lot of baserunners but he’s only really had one “bad” outing all season and seems like a decent trade bounty for Alberto Gonzalez at this point.
• Wirkin Estevez certainly rebounded nicely from his previous bad start on 6/23: 5IP, 1H, 0R, BB, 5K.  This team looks like it may have several dominant arms early on.
• Another start, another ho-hum excellent outing in AA for Brad Peacock: 62/3 IP, 5H, 0R, BB, 6K.   At some point, the team is going to have to make room for him in Syracuse to see what he does at the next level, because he’s clearly exhausted the challenges facing him in AA.
• Taylor Jordan continues to impress at Hagerstown, going for 7IP, 5H, 2R, 2ER, BB, 8K on 6/24.  His last few starts weren’t necessarily impressive but his numbers on the season as a whole are good.  He now stands at 8-3 with a 2.83 era.
• Nathan Karns was fantastic in a 3inning “start” on 6/24: 3IP, 1H, 0R, 1BB, 5K.  I’m not sure if he’s a “starter” or not but we’ll consider this a “stretching out” exercise.
• Christian Meza pitched just as effectively as Karns on 6/24: 3IP, 1H, 0R, 0BB, 5K.
• Yuniesky Maya started out well on 6/24 but the game was suspended, so we’ll give him a “good” for 3 clean innings of work.
• Brad Meyers had a good quality start on 6/24: 6IP, 6H, 2R, 2ER, BB, 3K.
• Erik Arneson had an excellent AA outing on 6/25: 7IP, 8H, 1R, 0ER, 0BB, 9K.
• 2011 draftee Manny Rodriguez threw 3 excellent innings for Auburn on 6/25 as he continues to get stretched out for (possibly) a rotational spot.  3IP, 0H, 0R, BB, 3K.
• Gregory Baez threw a pretty dominant GCL start on 6/25: 6IP, 4H, 1R, 1ER, BB, K.

Bad

• All we can say about Brandon King‘s 2011 debut was, wow.  4⅓ IP, 8H, 12R, 12ER, 4BB, 5Ks.  King was a late-round highschool pick in 2009 who signed (a rarity) and is now repeating the GCL for the third season.  I hate to say it, but he was bad last year, this start was pretty durn awful, and you have to wonder about the future prospects of a guy who can’t pitch his way out of the rookie league.
• Pedro Encarnation has not started the Short-A well.  His 6/24 start: 3⅓ IP, 6H, 5R, 5ER, 0BB, 0K, 2HR.
• Paul Demny got rocked for Potomac on 6/25: 6IP, 12H, 6R, 2ER, BB, 3K.  Not a good follow up to one of his best starts of the year.

Mediocre/Inconclusive

• Shairon Martis had a good and bad outing 6/21: he gave up 8 hits but had 8Ks to go with them.   Martis has pretty good AA numbers at this point; not sure what he’s proving by staying down there.  I think the team needs to decide if he’s a prospect or if he’s an org player.
• Tanner Roark was *just* quite not dominant enough to give him a “good” start, despite his 6/22 outing qualifying as a “quality start.”  Line: 6⅓ IP 5H, 3ER, 2BB, 5K.   Unlike Milone, who also gave up 3 runs in 6 innings on only 5 hits Roark had a couple of walks and not as many Ks.  He’s just not dominating guys like he did last year.  My concern for Roark is that he’s now repeating AA in his 4th pro season out of college and should be improving, not getting worse.
• Adam Olbrychowski‘s first start as a rotation regular in Potomac was ok: 5IP, 6H, 3R, 3ER, 2BB, 7K.  Lots of strikeouts, which is promising.  He got the win for his efforts.
• Matt Grace certainly improved from his previous debacle of a start, spinning a QS on 6/23: 6IP, 5H, 3R, 3ER, BB, 6K.  He’s slightly unlucky with 6 baserunners turning into 3 runs, but I like the K/9 rates.
• Trevor Holder had a decent start on 6/24: 5⅓ IP, 7H, 3R, 2ER, 0BB, 3K.
• Ryan Tatusko got a psuedo-start on 6/25, finishing Maya’s game with 4 soso innings.  4IP, 6H, 2ER, BB, 4K, HR.
• Sammy Solis continues to stretch out in Hagerstown, having an up and down game on 6/25: 7IP, 7H, 4R, 4ER, BB, 5K, WP, HBP.
• Kelvin Lopez pitched 4 innings on 6/25, going for 4IP, 4H, 2R, 2ER, 0BB, 1K.

Relievers of Note and other Thoughts

• Why did JD Martin get a Syracuse start?  He seems to have taken Brad Meyers‘ normal turn, but Meyers pitched later on in the cycle.  Seems odd; normally you plan for the need for a 2nd starter because of DHs when they arise, not 5 days prior.
• Masn’s Byron Kerr had a nice little feature about Denny Rosenbaum.
• Brad Peacock and Bryce Harper were named to the US team for the Futures Game, high praise indeed for both players.  These rosters are essentially Minor League all star teams and the rosters read like whos-who’s of the top prospects of today.
• Peacock also got a mention from Byron Kerr here, talking about his mechanics.
• Evan Bronson seems to have been the victim of Potomac’s Adam Olbrychowski-as-a-starter experiment.  Bronson wasn’t lights-out as a spot starter and moves back to the bullpen.  He may get another chance if the team tires of Trevor Holder’s mediocre performances.
• Christopher McKenzie, who started the year in Hagerstown’s but had three horrific starts in a row early in the season, got absolutely hammered in his first GCL outing; 4 hits and 3 walks in a third of an inning, resulting in 7 runs and an ERA of 126.  Not a great start to his attempts to get back to a full-season squad.
• Chein-Ming Wang is *finally* going out on rehab, with a planned appearance in Hagerstown monday 6/27.  It is slightly surprising that he’s going to Hagerstown, meaning that our 5 excellent prospects there will have their rotation scrambled slightly.  I think he would have made more sense in Potomac, where the starters have been less impressive all season.  Wang’s beginning of rehab is significant; it starts the clock from a month downward before a major decision has to be made; he has no minor league options so at the end of the period he either joins the 25-man roster, goes back on the DL or gets released.
• Former 40-man member and lost 2009 rule-5 draftee Zech Zinicola pitched his way to a promotion, including a 5k 2 inning performance on 6/24.  This will be his fourth shot at AAA, having consistently shown for the last few years he’s more than capable of dominating in AA but never quite capable at the next level.  Is he still a prospect?  He’s 26, in his 5th professional season, and failed to impress when Toronto took him in the rule5.  Of course, there’s always value in fungible bullpen arms.

Trends

AAA trends (in rotation order)
Detwiler    good,good,soso,soso,bad,soso,bad,bad,bad,soso,soso,good,soso,soso
Meyers    soso,good,soso,good,bad,soso,bad,good,good
Milone    good,soso,soso,bad,great,good,great,soso,good,soso,good,soso
Stammen    good,soso,great,bad,soso,good,soso,soso,soso,soso->promoted,bad,great
Maya        bad,soso,soso,good,great,good,soso,soso,soso->promoted,bad,good (cut short)

AA Trends:
Roark        bad,good,incomplete (2 ip cut short),soso,soso,awful,good,soso
Peacock    soso,good,great,good,very good,bad,great,great,good,soso,good,good
EDavis    good,soso,good,bad,soso,incomplete (knee injury->dl),soso,good,soso,good,soso,good
Martis     bad,bad,soso,soso,good,bad,good->dl,soso,great,soso
Arneson    soso,soso,good

High-A Trends:
Rosenbaum    soso,good,good,soso,good,good,soso,bad,good,bad,great,good,soso
Olbrychowski soso,good
Holder    soso,bad,bad,soso,soso,soso,good,bad,awful,good,awful,good,soso,soso
Demny        good,bad,good,good,soso,soso,bad,bad,soso,soso,soso,great,bad
Selik        soso,bad->dl,soso,soso,great,good,soso,good

Low-A Trends:
Jordan    good,soso,good,good->dl,soso,soso,soso,good,good,bad,soso,soso,good
Grace        good,bad,bad,bad,good,soso,soso,soso,soso,soso,good,soso,awful,soso
Solis        soso,soso,good,good,soso
Cole        soso,soso,bad,good,good
Ray        great,great,good,2ip short outing,good,great,soso,soso

Short-A Trends
Bates        good,great
Demmin    good,good
Estevez    bad,great
Encarnation    bad,bad
KLopez    bad

GCL Trends
Karns        soso,great
Meza        great
Mieses    good
King        awful
(Chico    good)

Top 3 starters deserving promotion: Milone, Peacock, Karns (more because he’s way too old for GCL)
Top 3 starters whose jobs are in jeopardy: Any short-A starter who doesn’t perform well, with the influx of 2011 draftees.  It could be a bloodbath of pitcher competition and releases, especially guys who didn’t exactly light the world on fire last year in short season competitions.

(Programming Note: as you may have noticed, i’m about 3 versions of this recurring post behind.  A long weekend away and then two weeks of quick deadlines at work and todo items at home have conspired against these posts.  I hate it when life interferes with blogging!  Anyway, I’ve kept up-to-date the trends, copied over some of the “news and notes” from the older posts and will just pick up with the 14th cycle).

The time has come to add in Short-A (starting 6/17) and GCL (6/20).  There’s 15 arms assigned to the Auburn Doubledays, and it will take a bit to determine who the starters are.  I’ll do a couple of quick posts with predictions versus actual rosters (though predicting the short-season squads is really difficult, since most of the guys there are 2011 draftees).  As always, Sue Dinem has a nice post highlighting where the Auburn roster guys came from (2010 assignment or 2011 draftee).  Lastly, Byron Kerr highlighted the opening day for the Auburn affiliate.

Here are the daily links from NationalsProspects, for reference below:

• Thursday 6/16 game reviews (Meyers, Roark, Bronson, Cole & McCatty)
• Friday 6/17 game reviews (Milone, Davis, Potomac Rained out, Ray, Demmin & Bates)
• Saturday 6/18 game reviews (Stammen, Peacock & Martinez, Holder & Demny, Jordan, Estevez)
• Sunday 6/19 game reviews (Maya, Arneson, Potomac rainout, Solis, Encarnation)
• Monday 6/20 game reviews (Detwiler, Harrisburg/Potomac/Hagerstown off, Lopez, Karns)

Good

• Brad Meyers rebounded from a string of sub-par to bad starts to take the win on 6/16.  Line: 7IP, 7H, 2ER, BB, 4K, HR.  Meyers has (to this point) kept up his unbelievable k/bb ratio (39 to 4 in AAA, 77 to 4 on the season), but has been struggled in AAA thus far (a 4.80 era and well over a hit per inning).
• Tanner Roark also rebounded on 6/16, putting in a quality start (2er in 6ip).   He still seems to have taken a severe step backwards this year (with a 6.00 era on the season) and may be pitching his way out of the team’s long term plans.
• AJ Cole struck out 9 in 5 innings on 6/16, giving him 40 (against 8 walks) in 32 low-A innings thus far.  I’ll take that from a 19yr old.
• Ryan Demmin‘s return to starting pitching on 6/17 for Auburn went well; 5IP, 3H, 1R, 1ER, 3BB, 4K.  He washed out of Potomac’s bullpen earlier in the year; lets see if he can stick in Auburn’s rotation.
• Collin Bates may not have started 6/17’s Auburn game, but he went 4 innings and clearly seems in competition for the rotation (so i’ll grade him here).  Results?  Pretty dominant: 4IP, 2H, 0R, 0BB, 3K.    Lets see if he gets a start the next time through the rotation.
• Brad Peacock got a bit unlucky on 6/17, turning 4 hits over 7 innings into 3 runs, but another 7Ks to pad his gaudy season numbers helped him to the victory.   Honestly, I’m not sure what he really has left to prove in AA; why do we keep Stammen in the AAA rotation if he’s being used out of the pen when he gets called up?
• Paul Demny had his best outing of the year on 6/18, pitching 5 innings of one-hit ball before making way for his bullpen.
• Erik Arneson put up good numbers for Harrisburg (this time) on 6/19: 3 hits and 7 Ks over 6 innings.  As i’ve said before, Arneson seems to have picked the short straw and seems to be the organization’s go-to spot starter.

Bad

• Evan Bronson got hit very hard on 6/16 on the day he seemingly took over Mitchell Clegg‘s rotation spot, giving up 11 hits in 5 and a third.
• An ugly outing for Craig Stammen, perhaps jet-lagged from his brief callup on 6/18.  Line: 3IP 6H, 5ER, BB, 2K, 2HR.
• Carlos Martinez got a spot start to cover for a Harrisburg doubleheader on 6/18, and in doing so became the 12th starter used in AA.  The result?  He showed why he’s not in the rotation, getting peppered for 6 hits and 3 runs over 4 innings.
• Wirkin Estevez had an interesting game in Auburn’s 2nd game of the season on 6/18: 3⅔ IP, 9H, 6R, 6ER, BB, 6K.   9 hits but 6 Ks in less than 4 innings?   Estevez pitched well in the DSL last year, but history has shown that it may not translate to the continental pro game.
• Yunesky Maya returned to Syracuse from a 4-game stint in the bigs, and must have been depressed for his 6/19 start.  He gave up 10 hits over 5 innings.  Unfortunately, I think he better get used to living in upstate New York for a while.  Amazingly he was in line for the victory by virtue of his team’s offense.
• Pedro Encarnation‘s first short-A start was not terrible, but wasn’t great; 3/ 2/3 innings, 3 runs, 4 walks. I’m surprised he’s in the short-A rotation, given that he’s not really shown us much during his first two pro seasons.
• A bad short-A start for Kelvin Lopez, another guy who wasn’t exactly great for us in the GCL last year.  Line: 3⅓ IP, 5H, 3R, 3ER, 2BB, 3K.

Mediocre/Inconclusive

• Shane McCatty had a run of the mill spot-start on 6/16: 4ip, 5 hits, 3 runs (2 earned).  It is the 2nd time in 2 weeks that one of the lesser bullpen arms in Hagerstown has been pressed into action.  Maybe they should have kept Garrett Mock down there for the playoff push.
• Tommy Milone had a poor start (by his standards) on 6/17, giving up 7 hits and 5 runs (4 earned) in less than 6 innings.  He continues his mastery of the strike zone though, now standing at 82ks against 5 walks on the year.  Unfortunately, his ERA has been creeping up over the past few starts, leaking runs here and there.  I still think the team could make use of him in the rotation if the need arises, this year.
• Erik Davis obviously was around the plate on 6/17, giving up 10 hits to go against 8Ks (and 0 walks) in a 6 inning effort.
• Robbie Ray wasn’t quite as dominant as we’ve come to expect on 6/17, but only gave up one run through 5 to take a no-decision.  He gave up quite a few hits and didn’t have nearly the dominant K rates as he has in previous games.  He’s still been amazingly dominant considering his age and his lack of pro experience.
• Trevor Holder‘s performance on 6/18 was probably better than his box score showed: 7 hits and 3 runs over 6 and a third, but all three runs came on one big homer.  It was enough to cost him the loss.
• Taylor Jordan had a quality start on 6/18, but nothing special.  6ip, 3 runs, a couple of Ks.  He’s continued to get wins for Hagerstown with decent numbers and not-very-dominant stuff.  But he has a sub 3.00 era and doesn’t walk a ton of guys.  I don’t know how much upside that means.
• Sammy Solis piched out the string for a Hagerstown team that was eliminated from the first half playoffs on 6/19: 4 innings, couple of earned runs, 5 ks.  Nothing bad, but nothing special.
• Another mediocre (for him) start for Ross Detwiler on 6/20: 6⅔ IP, 3H, 2R, 2ER, 4BB, 3K.  I continue to maintain he’s injured in some way or another and trying to pitch through it.
• Nathan Karns had an up-and-down rehab start in GCL (season opener on 6/20).  2⅔ IP, 1H, 0R, 2BB, 2K.  Its usually difficult to tell who the “starters” are in GCL, but we’ll do our best.

Relievers of Note and other Thoughts

• Mark Zuckerman reports that Chien-Ming Wang is (finally) ready to leave extended spring training and go out on a rehab assignment.  This means he’s going to supplant a starter, somewhere in the system.  I’d guess he’s going to Potomac to start, as they seem to have the least-performing collection of starters right now and he’d completely overmatch the younger hitters in low-A.  The implication of his going out on a rehab assignment is this: he only gets 30 days in the minors (probably about 6 starts) before the Nats have to make a decision on what to do with him.  He has no minor league options, so in 30 days he either joins the 25-man roster, goes back on the DL or is DFA’d.  After all we’ve invested in him (and for the sake of his career), I’m hoping he still has something left.
• The rotation in Harrisburg has proved challenging to keep up with; they’ve now used 11 different starters and we’re only about a 1/2 of the way through the season.  At the time of this writing I can’t tell any longer who is really in the rotation.  Tatusko seems back, but Arneson has pitched well out of the bullpen (though only mediocre as a spot-starter).  I guess its a good problem to have, as they’ve rolled to 10 straight wins recently and are getting pretty dominant performances out of 3/5ths of their rotation nearly every time out.
• Jimmy Barthmaier got slaughtered out of the pen on 6/1, which broke up a decent string of appearances for him lately.  He’s got ugly season-long numbers, is old for AA, and may be on his way out.
• Hagerstown relievers Shane McCatty and Ben Graham both got torched in a very odd 6/1 Hagerstown game.  Its the 3rd such god-awful outing for McCatty this year, sprinkled around decent ones.  Same story for Graham.  Both guys really aren’t getting the k/9 rates they need as bullpen options in the low-minors to have any shot of moving up.
• Christopher Manno numbers, as of June 1st: 25 1/3 innings, 0 earned runs, 8 hits, FOURTY strikeouts against eight walks.  As frequent commenter Mark L might say, “what does this guy have to do to get promoted??”  He proved later on in the month that he is human (giving up a few runs here and there towards the end of the first half), but he still has dominant numbers and merits a promotion.
• Ryan Mattheus looks like he’s fully recovered from 2009 Tommy John surgery, with 24 Ks in 21 innings and only 10 hits allowed through AA and AAA stints on the season.  If anything his numbers have improved at AAA.  His problem is 40-man status; he passed through waivers and was retained by the club, and I’m guessing they won’t want to put him back on until completely necessary (perhaps 9/1 callup?).  Update: he got his long awaited shot at the majors, having been added to the 40-man on 6/10/10. He replaces Cole Kimball, who has “right shoulder inflammation” (as nearly every major league pitcher does) and went on the 15-day DL. Kimball has been pretty effective thus far, but is walking guys far too often and the rest may do him some good.
• Not that Bryce Harper is involved with the pitching in Hagerstown, but I thought i’d take a quick look at how he’s faring with his latest outburst.  As of 6/3, here’s his ranks in the entire Sally League in various categories: 6th in batting average (.346), 3rd in OBP (.432), t-1st in homers, 1st in RBI, 1st in Total bases, 3rd in OPS (1.055), and he’s even t-14th in stolen bases.  Not a bad set of rankings considering he’s like the 2nd youngest guy in the league.
• Brad Peacock is starting to get noticed by some of the ESPN scouts.  Jason Grey featured Peacock on 6/2 from an NL-only fantasy perspective, noting he’s at 95mph with a “good” curve and a developing change-up.  That’s not going to be enough to be a major league starter.  Grey’s espn colleague Keith Law took a Peacock-related question on 6/2, noting that Peacock really is a one-pitch pitcher without an above-average 2nd pitch according to most scouts he’s asked about.  Neither of these reports is really that positive about Peacock’s future unfortunately.  My guess is that he will probably be told to start really working on his change-up, which reportedly has good velocity delta but not much movement and not much command.  You would have to think Peacock needs good command of that third pitch to have any shot at being a starter.
• Interesting Harrisburg moves last week: Oliver Perez going to the DL, with Arneson continuing his pin-ball assignments throughout the organization, coming back down from Syracuse.  He seems to be the designated spot-starter/moving man this season. Erik Davis was on the DL for a quick trip and regains his rotation spot, but it remains to be seen what the rotations look like after this shakes out.
• What is going on with Bobby Hansen??  He hasn’t appeared in a game for Hagerstown since 6/1, but isn’t on the DL.  He seems to have given his rotation spot to Sammy Solis … but hasn’t appeared since.  He wasn’t Hagerstown’s worst starter and had pretty good numbers as a 21-yr old in low-A.  Is he hurt?  Is he in the dog house?  Has he gone and hooked up with the manager’s daughter?
• Tom Milone is starting to get noticed by the national press.  Rob Sickels had a feature on him on 6/20, as did Rob Neyer on sbnation.com
• The busleaguesbaseball blog featured Auburn on 6/20.
• 9-lives pitcher Garrett Mock was placed on the 7-day DL in Harrisburg after two brutal starts there.   As of 6/21, here’s the list of pitchers on the 7-day DL in AA: Mock, Perez, Atilano and Chico.  In other words, a collection of guys who are all way too old for AA and are closer to their outright release than making it back to the big club.
• We may soon see a whole slew of 2011 draftees taking over rotation spots in Auburn.  Some of the “starters” we have there have not exactly impressed during their pro careers, and in some cases makes you wonder how they still have jobs.

Trends

Top 3 deserving promotion: Peacock, Ray, Milone
Top 3 whose jobs are in jeopardy: Mock, Holder, Grace