Nationals Arm Race

AJ Cole may have been the "name" 2010 draftee debut, but Robbie Ray stole the show. Photo: Natsnewsnetwork.blogspot.com

Lots of interesting news for the minor league rotations this time around.  The big news, (and I was as surprised by this news as Sue Dinem over at NationalsProspects.com) was the sudden promotion of both A.J. Cole and Robbie Ray to Hagerstown.  Cole’s promotion makes him the 3rd youngest pitcher in the Sally League (and Ray the 6th youngest) and is a fantastic indicator of the progress these guys have apparently made.  I thought at best they’d play in extended spring until the short seasons start, and then (maybe) play in short-A ball.

Here are the daily links from NationalsProspects, for reference below:

• Saturday 5/7 game reviews (Potomac DH, Selik Potomac Debut, Cole Hagerstown debut)
• Sunday 5/8 game reviews
• Monday 5/9 game reviews (Meyers Syracuse debut, Robbie Ray Hagerstown Debut)
• Tuesday 5/10 game reviews
• Wednesday 5/11 game reviews

Good

• We’ll give Yunesky Maya a “good” for his 5/7 outing: 6⅔ IP 5H 2R 2ER 1BB 7K.  A “real” quality start with a K/inning, only one walk and a WHIP on the day < 1.0.    The third consecutive effective outing for Maya, coupled with a loss of form out of Detwiler, may be putting Maya into the pole position for “first Chief called up” if needed.
• Potomac Ace Denny Rosenbaum put in a great 5/8 outing to salvage one win out of a four-game set against Kinston.  His outing: 7IP 6H 1R 1ER 1BB 7K.  Unfortunately he got a no-decision for his efforts.
• How about Robbie Ray‘s 5/9 Hagerstown Debut?  No-hitter through 4, just one hit (and two batters above the minimum) through 5 complete innings.  Per Kilgore, not only did he not walk a guy, he never went 3balls on anyone either.  59 pitches, 46 strikes.  Line: 5IP 1H 0R 0BB 6K.  Yeah, that’s fantastic, especially for such a young starter.  WP Beat reporter Adam Kilgore wrote up Ray’s debut here.
• Tom Milone had another excellent start in Syracuse on 5/10: 7⅔ IP 5H 3R 3ER 0BB 7K 1HR.  He was perfect through 3 and gave up just one hit through 6.  Oddly, after giving up a few sharp hits in the 7th he was brought back for the 8th, where he gave up a homer and a double before being taken out.  Perhaps the AAA manager was trying to stretch him out a bit, or get him to work through some adversity.
• Craig Stammen helped the Chiefs win their 3rd straight on 5/11 with this line: 7⅓ IP 5H 2R 2ER 0BB 6K 1HR.

Bad

• As Sue Dinem chronicled, Ryan Tatusko “labored” in his latest Harrisburg start on 5/7, giving up 9 hits (including 2 long balls) in just 3 innings pitched.
• Brad Peacock was cruising along in his 5/8 start, having retired 12 of the first 14 batters he faced before just falling apart in the 5th inning.  A walk and then 5 straight hits knocked him out of the game, giving him his worst start of the year.  Final line: 4⅓ IP 6H 5R 5ER 2BB 6K.
• Chris McKenzie got hammered again in Hagerstown on 5/8: 2IP 7H 7R 7ER 2BB 3K.  He probably loses his spot when Taylor Jordan comes off the 7-day DL.

Mediocre/Inconclusive

• Cameron Selik‘s Potomac debut on 5/7 went ok; 6IP 4H 3R 2ER 4BB 3K 2HR.  He must have been amped up for his appearance; 8 of his 10 outs were recorded by fly balls, indicating that his ball was up.  He also issued 4 walks.  Its hard to kill a guy on his debut after a well earned promotion, especially if his only two earned runs were both on homers.
• Spot Starter (presumably) Evan Bronson was the unlucky loser on 5/7, giving up just 1 earned run in 4 2/3 but taking the loss in the bottom half of the double-header.  Line: 4⅔ IP 5H 1R 1ER 2BB 0K.   We’ll have to see if Bronson takes Mitchell Clegg‘s rotation spot after a couple of serviceable outings.
• A.J. Cole‘s debut start in Hagerstown on 5/7 went ok.  His line: 3⅔ IP 5H 2R 2ER 2BB 3K 1HR.  He seemed to scatter the hits and walks well, and may have gotten a rather quick hook in the 4th (he had two outs and had just given up a single, it wasn’t as if he was getting clocked that inning).  He’s got plenty more starts to show us what he has.
• Another mediocre start from supposed ready-for-the-majors starter Ross Detwiler in Syracuse on 5/8.  6IP 6H 4R 4ER 3BB 6K.  He needs to do better; he should be dominating these weaker AAA hitters, not getting bounced around.
• Brad Meyers gets a mediocre for his first AAA start on 5/9; 5IP 5H 4R 4ER 1BB 5K.  He gave up two quick hits and a run to open the game, then retired 10 straight before leaking a 2nd run in the 4th.  In the 5th a leadoff walk came back to burn him, scoring on an infield grounder before a triple scored the 4th and last run he surrendered.  All in all, his ERA will look bad (7.20 on the night) but he only gave up 6 baserunners in 5 innings.
• Erik Arneson had a decent first AA start on 5/9, going for 5⅓ IP 5H 2R 2ER 1BB 6K.  I’m putting it mediocre on account that Arneson is 27 and should be in AAA, not putting up quality starts in AA.
• Michell Clegg‘s 5/9 start was certainly better than his last: 5IP 6H 2R 2ER 1BB 3K.  He’s still  yet to really put in a dominating start in Potomac.
• I can’t quite give Shairon Martis a “good” outing for his quality start on 5/10: 6IP 6H 2R 2ER 1BB 3K 1HR.  Perhaps its because i’m holding him to a higher standard, perhaps its because he’s not really dominating AA hitters like he should.  To me, a guy that pitched a half a season in a big-league rotation should be shutting out AA hitting.
• On the fact of it, Trevor Holder‘s 5/10 line in Potomac was pretty bad: 6⅓ IP 8H 5R 4ER 0BB 2K.  However, reading the game log you get a different story.  After giving up 2 runs in a rough 2nd inning, Holder pitched 4 relatively clean innings.  He fell apart int he 7th though, giving up 4 straight hits and 3 runs.  Still, not enough Ks for me.  Holder has yet to put in a “good” line this season and it should be just a matter of time before Frias or Bronson replaces him in the Potomac rotation.
• Bobby Hansen had a ho-hum quality start on 5/10: 6IP 7H 3R 2ER 3BB 4K.  Too many base-runners for me, despite his getting the win.
• Erik Davis‘s 5/11 start was cut short after 2 innings with a knee injury.
• Taylor Jordan‘s return from the DL in Hagerstown on 5/11 was ok: 6IP 7H 5R 2ER 0BB 0K.  I like the 6ip with no walks, but did not like his 3rd inning; he gave up 6 straight hits to give up 5 runs, though only 2 were earned because of a couple errors thrown in.  All in all, a good return back for Hagerstown’s new “Ace.”
• Paul Demny‘s 5/11 start in Potomac was just on this side of bad: 6ip 4hits, 4runs, 2 walks and 6ks.  He gave up two bombs but still hung on to get the victory.

Relievers of Note and other Thoughts

• MASN’s Byron Kerr featured Potomac’s GWU graduate Pat Lehman in this piece.  He’s definitely pitching lights out as the P-Nats closer, having only given up one run in 11 innings so far this year.
• Jimmy Barthaimer let Saturday’s 5/7 Harrisburg game get completely out of control, giving up 5 earned runs in just an inning.  It sounds as if some shaky defense and a missed call caused him to lose his focus.  It happens (especially in the minors, where neither umpires or your defense is as good as you need it to be on the mound), but you have to work around it.  To make matters worse, he followed this performance up on 5/11 by giving up 5 runs in 3 relief innings (albeit with 5 Ks).
• Matt Chico‘s attempts to convert to being a reliever continue to go badly, getting shelled on 5/11 to the tune of 2IP 5H 5R 4ER 0BB 1K 1HR.
• Selik seems to have taken Marcos Frias’ rotation spot for the time being, though the rain-out/double headers in Potomac make it somewhat difficult to tell for sure.  Someone definitely has to make way though; I can’t see the team going to a 6 man rotation.
• Jeff Mandel continues to look sharp in the Syracuse pen, holding a 0.57 whip through 7 innings.
• Cole Kimball looks nearly as good in the Syracuse pen, having yet to give up a run through 11 2/3 innings and the first week of march in the closer role.  He’s got a bit too many walks but lots of Ks and not a lot of hits.
• There must have been something in the water in Harrisburg on Sunday; after Peacock fell apart both Matt Chico and Carlos Martinez both got hammered as well, contributing to a 15-6 loss.
• Josh Smoker may be finally putting it together in Potomac; he has 1 ER in 11 2/3 innings through 5/8.  A bit too many walks, but he’s also getting lots of Ks.  He worked out of a jam quite nicely on 5/10.
• Christopher Manno keeps on cruising; 2 scoreless innings and another 2Ks on 5/8 give him a fairly ridiculous line on the season right now.  22ks versus 2bbs in 14 1/3 innings as of 5/8.  There are guys in the Potomac bullpen holding on by a thread (Wort and Olbrychowski in particular) that could make way, soon.
• Ryan Mattheus, a AA reclamation project at this point in his career, is pitching pretty well post-surgery.  One run allowed in 12 innings on the season so far.  He’s a former 40-man member and is probably a bit too experienced for AA, but it is a good sign that he’s pitching well.
• Matt Grace seems to have lost his rotation spot with Jordan’s return from the DL and the promotions of Cole and Ray.

Trends

AAA trends (in rotation order)
Maya        bad,soso,soso,good,great,good
Detwiler    good,good,soso,soso,bad,soso
Meyers    soso
Milone    good,soso,soso,bad,great,good
Stammen    good,soso,great,bad,soso,good

AA Trends:
Martis     bad,bad,soso,soso
EDavis    good,soso,good,bad,soso,incomplete (knee injury)
Tatusko    soso,bad,bad,soso,good,bad
Peacock    soso,good,great,good,very good,bad
Arneson    soso

High-A Trends:
Rosenbaum    soso,good,good,soso,good,good
Clegg        soso,soso,soso,unbelievably bad,soso
Holder    soso,bad,bad,soso,soso,soso
Demny        good,bad,good,good,soso
Selik        soso

Low-A Trends:
Jordan    good,soso,good,good->dl,soso
Cole        soso
McKenzie    good,bad,bad,bad,good
Ray        great
Hansen    soso,good,very bad,very good,soso,soso

Top 5 deserving promotion: Manno, Rosenbaum, Lehman, Kimball, Mattheus
Top 5 whose jobs are in jeopardy: McKenzie, Wort, Olbrychowski, Barthmaier, Tatusko

All Tom Milone has done since getting drafted, is win. Photo: Tom Priddy/Four Seam Images/milb.com

Here are the daily links from NationalsProspects, for reference below:

• Monday 5/2 game reviews
• Tuesday 5/3 game reviews (Syracuse ppd)
• Wednesday 5/4 game reviews (Syracuse and Hagerstown off)
• Thursday 5/5 game reviews
• Friday 5/6 game reviews (Potomac rained out, again)

Good

• JD Martin rebounded on 5/2 from his previous crummy starts, throwing 5 1/3 innings, giving up 5 hits and a walk but conceding no earned runs.  He didn’t exactly dominate Rochester (1K) but Martin isn’t exactly a swing-and-miss pitcher.
• Ryan Tatusko threw a dominant start on 5/2: 6⅔ IP 2H 0R 3BB 9K.  A bit wild, but 9Ks over 6+ innings is a good sign.
• Potomac Ace Danny Rosenbaum put in a decent performance on 5/2; 7IP 3H 0R 3BB 4K.  He wiggled out of a bases-loaded jam in the third and then retired 10 straight to close out 7 complete.
• Chris McKenzie pulled himself out of the coach’s doghouse with his 7IP 4H 0R 1BB 2K performance on 5/2.  I’d like to see more swing-and-miss out of him, but 7 scoreless is good enough in my book.
• Brad Peacock had another ho-hum great outing on 5/3:  7IP 2H 0R 1BB 8K.   His season numbers are almost comically good right now.   1.16 era, 0.76 whip.  36/4 k/bb ratio in 31 innings.  One has to think he’s the next to move up to AAA.  His performance earned a mention on Baseball America’s hotsheet (h/t to Steven Biel at FJB for the link)
• Brad Meyers, as with Peacock, put in another solid outing on 5/4: 7IP 8H 2R 2ER 0BB 7K.  It wasn’t quite as dominant as in the past, but it was good enough to earn him a promotion (see notes below).
• Tom Milone had a fantastic rebound start on 5/5 for Syracuse: 7IP 4H 1R 1ER 1BB 11K.  Eleven strikeouts in 7 innings for the young left-hander.

Bad

• Mitchell Clegg‘s outing is only in the “bad” section because there isn’t an “unbelievably bad” section.  Here’s his line from his 5/3 start in Potomac: 3⅔ IP 13H 11R 7ER 1BB 1K 1HR.  Thirteen hits in 3 2/3’s inning; that’s like a line from one of my adult baseball leagues.

Mediocre/Inconclusive

• We’ll give Taylor Jordan and incomplete for his 5/3 outing, shortened when he took a line-drive off his non-pitching elbow.  Line upon exit: 2⅓ IP 3H 1R 1ER 0BB 0K.  He ended up going on the DL as a precaution, allowing the team to add 2010 draft pick Neil Holland for his first appearance in full season A ball.
• Trevor Holder may be holding onto his starter’s job a bit longer, after putting in a serviceable 5/4 start in Potomac.  Line: 5+ IP 5H 2R 2ER 0BB 3K.  He was ejected in the top of the 6th for arguing a safe/out call at first.  His performance was probably closer to good than bad; the hits were well scattered, the 2nd earned run was charged to him when his replacement (Dean Weaver) walked, hit a guy and then walked a run home in a situation that had to drive the starter crazy.
• Shairon Martis was able to improve on his bad form, but still put in a relatively mediocre AA start on 5/5.  Line: 5IP 7H 3R 2ER 3BB 5K 1HR.  That’s 10 baserunners in 5 innings for a former major league starter.  He doesn’t seem to be in immediate jeopardy of losing his rotation spot, but it could come soon.
• Paul Demny got no offensive support and took the loss despite his quality start for Potomac on 5/5.  Line: 6IP 4H 2R 2ER 4BB 3K.  The walks knocked this to the “so-so” category.
• Bobby Hansen put a lot of baserunners on, but his hitters bashed their way to a Win for him for Hagerstown on 5/5.  Line: 5IP 8H 2R 2ER 1BB 3K.
• Craig Stammen gave up quite a few hits on 5/6, and it ended up costing him.  9 hits through 6 innings, but what did him in was the two hits he gave up to open the 7th, which were subsequently inherited and scored on his reliever’s watch.  So in the end, not the worst outing of his career but bad enough to tag him with a loss.
• Erik Davis started out his outing dominantly (facing the minimum through four), but leaked a couple runs in the 5th before giving up another 3 (though they ended up being unearned) in the 6th.  Final line: 5⅔ IP 4H 5R 2ER 3BB 3K.
• Matt Grace had a quality start on 5/6, but too many walks pushed his performance into the mediocre.  Line; 6⅓ IP 6H 2R 1ER 3BB 3K.

Relievers of Note and other Thoughts

• Per a flurry of Potomac roster moves on 5/4, Cameron Selik got a well deserved promotion to Potomac.   Whose rotation spot does he take?  My guess is Holder‘s, since it seems to match up with Selik’s normal rest.  That and Holder was probably the worst of the existing Potomac starters, Clegg’s awful night notwithstanding.
• Continuing the promotions news, on 5/5 Brad Meyers earned a long-deserved promotion to AAA.  I’m guessing that JD Martin makes way in the Syracuse rotation, though the corresponding move seems to have been to demote Matt Chico to Harrisburg.
• Chico’s demotion may be a death knell for his career; after falling off the 40-man and being removed from the rotation, he’s put in a mediocre 5+ ERA so far as a middle reliever and now a 27 (soon to be 28) yr old in AA.  That’s not good.
• Dean Weaver pops up as well, having been reinstated (and promoted from last season’s final destination) in Potomac from the opening day DL/extended spring training.
• Ryan Mattheus, somewhat of a forgotten man in Harrisburg, got a 1 1/3 inning save where he struck out all four guys for outs on 5/2.
• Paul Applebee filled ably on very short notice, taking the mound after his starter got knocked from the game and gave Hagerstown enough quality long relief to preserve the win.  His 5/3 line: 3⅔ 2H 1R 1ER 0BB 0K 1HR.  He still has an ugly 6.16 era on the season.  Perhaps its his mustache; its reminiscent of the rookie on the state police force who is trying to grow something to fit in.
• Kyle Morrison was released from Potomac earlier this month.  Not that he was a massive part of the future, but it seems to me that if we’re basing these release decisions on some combination of age/performance, how does Morrison go with a 9k/9 ratio while his cohort Adam Olbrychowski has conspired to walk as many guys (10) as he’s struck out and is a year older?
• Tough outing for Cole Kimball on 5/6, needing 50-some pitches to get through 2 innings and allowing both his inherited runners to score, costing his team the game.

Trends

AAA trends:
Maya        bad,soso,soso,good,great,good
Detwiler    good,good,soso,soso,bad,soso
Milone    good,soso,soso,bad,great
Stammen    good,soso,great,bad,soso
Meyers
(Arneson    soso)
(Mock        good,bad,really bad->DL)
(Martin     bad,bad,good->demoted for Meyers)

AA Trends:
Martis     bad,bad,soso
EDavis    good,soso,good,bad,soso
Tatusko    soso,bad,bad,soso,good,bad
Peacock    soso,good,great,good,very good,bad
Arneson
(Barthmaier    bad)
(Atilano    soso,bad->DL)
(Meyers    good,bad,good,great,good,good->promoted)

High-A Trends:
Rosenbaum    soso,good,good,soso,good,good
Holder    soso,bad,bad,soso,soso
Frias        good,good,bad,soso
Demny        good,bad,good,good,soso
Clegg        soso,soso,soso,unbelievably bad,
Selik        soso
(Bronson    good,soso)
(Caldera bad,bad->released)

Low-A Trends:
Grace        good,bad,bad,bad,good,soso
Cole        soso
McKenzie    good,bad,bad,bad,good
Ray
Hansen    soso,good,very bad,very good,soso
(Applebee    bad,soso,bad)
(Selik    good,good,good,great,good->promoted)
(Jordan    good,soso,good,good->dl)

Top 3 deserving promotion: Peacock, Lehman and Manno
Top 3 whose jobs are in jeopardy: Clegg, McKenzie, Holder

Manno-maniacs are excited about his great start. Photo Mark Brisco via flickr.com

Here are the daily links from NationalsProspects, for reference below:

• Wednesday 4/27 game reviews (DH for Syracuse, Potomac)
• Thursday 4/28 game reviews
• Friday 4/29 game reviews
• Saturday 4/30 game reviews
• Sunday 5/1 game reviews

Good

• Brad Peacock continues his strong start to the season, going for 7IP 5H 1R 1ER 1BB 7K 1HR on 4/28.   His and Meyer’s continued performances are drawing the interest of the big club’s beat reporters, as Adam Kilgore posted this story over the weekend.
• Brad Meyers didn’t have an overpowering strike out night, but did have an excellent effort on 4/29: 8IP 6H 1R 1ER 0BB 4K.  As noted in Kilgore’s article, he now has 31Ks and 0BBs on the season.  That’s pretty durn good.
• Taylor Jordan improved to 5-0 on the season with a clean outing on 4/28: 5IP 5H 1R 1ER 2BB 4K.  Not the greatest outing but enough to get the win for Hagerstown.
• Bobby Hansen rebounded nicely from a crummy outing to have a very good one on 4/29: 6IP 2H 1R 1ER 1BB 6K.  If you take out his 4/23 start he’s given up 3 earned runs in 17 innings on the season.  He could be one to watch, absolutely.
• Yunesky Maya finally broke out in Syracuse, throwing 8 scoreless innings and giving up just 3  hits in 4/30’s victory.  It was clearly the most dominant he’s looked in a Nats affiliate uniform.  71 of 104 pitches for strikes, 11 ground ball outs.  I would have liked to have seen this game because it sounds like he finally had it going.
• Paul Demny had an odd outing on 4/30: he pitched 5 scoreless but he seemed less than dominant.  He gave up 3 hits and 3 walks, but had only 1 strike out and gave up a number of fly ball outs.  This may be one of those games you had to see in order to properly judge it.  I’ll give him a “good” outing though by virtue of no runs and so few hits.
• Cameron Selik continues to put his name in the mix for organizational pitcher of the month by getting his third victory and his 5th straight good-to-great outing.  Line on 4/30: 6IP 8H 1R 1ER 0BB 7K.  His numbers through 5 starts are ridiculous: 29ip, 1 run, 30 ks and 3 walks.
• Evan Bronson had a nice little outing on Sunday for Potomac: 5IP 2H 1R 1ER 2BB 4K.  This was Bronson’s first start of the season and it seemed to be a spot-start (because of the 4/27 double-header).  He may be a candidate to replace the struggling Holder though, in Potomac’s rotation.
• Matt Grace had a similarly good outing on sunday for Hagerstown: 6IP 2H 0R 3BB 3K.  It is nice to see Grace rebounding from 3 sub-par outings.

Bad

• JD Martin did himself no favors and got hammered again on 4/27, giving up 6 runs (on 3 homers) in less than 5 innings.
• Chris McKenzie‘s awful outing on 4/27 was delayed after he gave up 7 runs in the first inning and a third he pitched.  Oddly the game isn’t to be completely replayed; they resumed it the next day.
• Paul Applebee may not have gotten an official “start” in 4/28’s rain-resumed game, but it was essentially a spot start situation.  He did not do well; 4 runs on 5 hits and a walk in 4 2/3s.
• Lefty Tom Milone got bliztzed on 4/28, failing to get out of the 3rd.  Line; 3⅔ IP 10H 7R 7ER 1BB 2K.  Ugly.
• Craig Stammen got beat around by the long ball on 4/29: 6⅔ IP 6H 5R 5ER 1BB 6K 2HR.
• Shairon Martis put in his second disappointing start in a row on 4/30: 4⅓ IP 8H 3R 0ER 3BB 5K.  For a guy who was in Washington’s 2009 rotation, its amazing that he cannot get guys out now in AA.  Is he hurt?
• Wow, what happened to Ross Detwiler on sunday 5/1?  2⅔ IP 9H 7R 7ER?!  That’s so out of character for a guy who was in serious contention for a MLB rotation slot that you almost have to believe he was hurt or sick or something.  He’s trending the wrong way for sure (see trends section below).
• Erik Davis struggled on sunday, getting knocked around for 5IP 10H 6R 5ER 1BB 5K in Harrisburg.

Mediocre/Inconclusive

• Erik Arneson‘s spot start in AAA on 4/27 (to provide cover in a DH) wasn’t half bad: 5 innings pitched, 8 hits and 3 runs.
• Ryan Tatusko improved from his last outing, but still put in a mediocre appearance on 4/27 (9 hits and 4 runs in less than 6 innings).  Where has last year’s 1.72 era-throwing pitcher gone?
• Mitchell Clegg held the fort down for 4 innings, but couldn’t finish the 5th, getting battered around for the loss on 4/27.
• Danny Rosenbaum put in a decent performance in the 2nd half of 4/27’s double-header, getting some unlucky hits and giving up 3 runs (2 earned) on 4 hits and 6ks in 5 innings.
• Trevor Holder put in a mediocre outing on 4/28: 6IP 8H 4R 3ER 2BB 3K.  I feel like his time in the high-A rotation is ticking.
• Marcos Frias had a meltdown on 4/29, going for 5⅔ 8H 5R 4ER 2BB 6K 1HR.  He improves from a “bad” rating by virtue of the strikeouts, barely.
• Potomac’s Ryan Demmin may be holding on to his job by a thread after a second meltdown within a week.  He got torched for 3 homers and gave up 5 runs in an inning of work on 4/30, the second time in a week he put up a comparable line.  He’s young and a lefty, but he’ll have to throw scoreless outings for the rest of the season to get his ERA back to respectability.

Relievers of Note and other Thoughts

• Arneson’s promotion was rather odd to me: why promote a middle reliever to AAA to make a spot start?  Perhaps the organization didn’t want to interrupt the flow of the AA rotation right now.  Or perhaps they knew Arneson had AAA experience from last year and plan to use him in the AAA bullpen regardless.  Or perhaps he’s coming right back down to AA at some point.  Update: he was returned right back to AA when Bernadina came back from the majors.  Arneson may end up being this year’s version of Jason Jones, a minor league veteran at 28 who pitched at 3 different levels for the team last year.
• Josh Smoker continues to show improvement in his new role.  He had 3Ks in an inning and a third on 4/29 and has given up just one run in 7 appearances on the season.  It is still disappointing that the supplemental-first rounder is now a loogy in high-A, but at least he’s showing more value than in years past.
• Christopher Manno keeps on mowing them down in Hagerstown: his line for the season now stands at 11 1/3 ip, 6 hits, 2 runs both unearned, 19ks and 2bbs.  That’s a pretty good line.

Trends

AAA trends:
Maya        bad,soso,soso,good,great
Detwiler    good,good,soso,soso,bad
Martin     bad,bad
Milone    good,soso,soso,bad
Stammen    good,soso,great,bad
(Arneson    soso)
(Mock        good,bad,really bad->DL)

AA Trends:
Meyers    good,bad,good,great,good
Martis     bad,bad
EDavis    good,soso,good,bad
Tatusko    soso,bad,bad,soso
Peacock    soso,good,great,good
(Barthmaier    bad)
(Atilano    soso,bad->DL)

High-A Trends:
Rosenbaum    soso,good,good,soso
Holder    soso,bad,bad,soso
Frias        good,good,bad,soso
Demny        good,bad,good,good
Clegg        soso,soso,soso
(Bronson    good)
(Caldera bad,bad->released)

Low-A Trends:
Selik        good,good,good,great,good
Grace        good,bad,bad,bad,good
McKenzie    good,bad,bad,bad
Jordan    good,soso,good,good
Hansen    soso,good,very bad,very good
(Applebee    bad,soso,bad)

3 pitchers who are earning a promotion: Meyers, Peacock, Selik

3 pitchers who need to be worried about their jobs: Martin, Martis, Holder

Brad Peacock has been getting better and better in Harrisburg. Photo: Jenny Kane, The Harrisburg Patriot-News via pennlive.com

A better week for our minor league starters, several of whom put in fantastic performances during the last rotational-run throughs.  One of the best being put in by Brad Peacock, who was one of the last draft and follows done before the rule was abolished, and is looking like a complete steal for this team as a 40-something round draft pick.  Now he’s looking like a potential dominant starter as a 23-yr old in AA, putting him on the fast track for a potential 2012 rotation spot with the big club.

Here are the daily links from NationalsProspects.com, for reference below:

• Friday 4/22 game reviews (one rainout)
• Saturday 4/23 game reviews (Syracuse DH)
• Sunday 4/24 game reviews (off days for Harrisburg and Hagerstown)
• Monday 4/25 game reviews
• Tuesday 4/26 game reviews (Syracuse, Potomac postponed)

Good

• Brad Peacock put in his second good outing in a row, throwing 7⅓ IP of 2 hit ball in his team’s 3-2 win on 4/22.  He had 9 strikeouts and no walks to go with his shutout innings.  A great performance, one of the best we’ve seen in the affiliates so far.  It was good enough to earn him Eastern League’s Pitcher of the Week.
• Taylor Jordan was the beneficiary of a 17 run explosion by his Hagerstown hitters on 4/22, and he cruised to an easy victory.  Line: 6IP 4H 0R 1BB 3K.  It is difficult to normally give full credit to a pitcher on a night when he had such massive leads early (a 9 run lead after 2 innings is essentially insurmountable, even in minor league ball, to say nothing of a 13 run lead after 3, or a 15-0 lead after 4 innings).   However close examination of the gamelog shows that he retired the first 14 batters he faced.  That’s a pretty good performance.
• Craig Stammen pitched a nifty 7-inning shutout in the nightcap of 4/23.  7 innings, 7 Ks, only 4 hits and 0 bbs for the victory.   He needed 94 pitches to complete 7 innings, a nice sign considering all the pitches he needed for those 7ks.
• Brad Meyers put in a dominating performance on 4/23: 6⅔ IP 4H 2R 2ER 0BB 10K.  He’s got a very healthy 27 ks in 21 1/3 innings through his first four starts and may be getting a promotion before he knows it.
• Yunesky Maya had easily his best outing of the year, going 7 complete innings (retiring the first 11 straight batters), allowing 3 hits, 0 walks (he did hit a batter though) and getting 9ks.  Unfortunately he managed to give up 3 runs on those 3 hits (a 2-run homer and a leadoff HBP scoring on a weak liner), showing why the ERA isn’t always the greatest indicator of a pitcher’s capability.  On a day he was relatively dominant, he takes the loss.
• Ground-ball machine Paul Demny pitched 7 shutout innings, scattering 5 hits and 3 walks and getting 2/3rds of balls put into play on the ground.  Demny has been up and down so far this year, but is the youngest pitcher in Potomac and seems to be holding his own.
• Fresh off of being named the South Atlantic Pitcher of the Week for his LAST start, Cameron Selik went one better, pitching 8 shutout innings against West Virginia on 4/26.  He only had 3 Ks on the night, but his go/fo ratio was a ridiculous 15/2.    It might be time to promote him; he’s a tad old for low-A (23 now, turns 24 in August) and we may be seeing him overpowering guys who are just younger than he is.  I’d like to see him in advanced-A.  A 23/3 k/bb ratio is nothing to sneeze at though, at any level.
• Erik Davis had a nice little outing on 4/26 in Harrisburg, going 6 scoreless to get the victory.  Line: 6IP 5H 0R 2BB 6K.

Bad

• Trevor Holder continues to struggle for Potomac, getting knocked around for 5 runs on 9 hits in 5 innings of work on 4/22.  Pundits have noted that Holder is only effective when he keeps the ball down, and clearly he wasn’t on Friday night.  His go/fo ratio was 5/5, and he gave up 6 straight fly ball hits (either for outs or for hits) in a 3 run third inning.  For now, I don’t think Holder is in any danger of losing his rotation spot, but he has to start putting in some quality starts soon.
• Marcos Frias had an ugly outing on 4/23, getting lit up for 7 runs in just 3 innings pitched.
• Bobby Hanson had an even uglier outing on 4/23, failing to get out of the first inning on the way to giving up 6 runs.
• Spot Starter Alex Caldera got his 2nd chance to show he belongs in the rotation … and blew that second chance.  Line: 2IP 5H 5R 5ER 1BB 3K 2HR against the very strong hitting Salem AAA affiliate of the Red Sox.
• One former 40-man roster member Shairon Martis has seemingly replaced another (Luis Atilano, who has gone on the AA DL) in Harrisburg, and the results seem to be the same; bad.  Martis’ 2011 debut on 4/25 was erratic: 4IP 8H 5R 5ER 1BB 6K 1HR. Six K’s is good, but this line from a starter who has 20 major league starts is disappointing.
• Matt Grace had his third “bad” start in a row, getting clobbered by West Virginia on 4/26 for the loss.  The same team that was completely shut down by Selik the night before got to Grace for 6 runs (only 4 earned) on 8 hits in 4 innings of work.

Mediocre/Inconclusive

• Tom Milone was hit around pretty consistently by the Yankees AAA affiliate on 4/23, giving up 9 hits (and a walk) in 5 innings.  He did have 6 Ks, but gave up 3 runs in the loss.
• Ross Detwiler‘s performance probably was better than just mediocre on 4/25: 6⅓ IP 8H 1R 1ER 2BB 5K.  His performance bar is higher, since he should be pitching in the majors.  8 hits to a AAA line up is not the dominating performance he needs to show he deserves to go to the next level.

Relievers of Note and other Thoughts

• Shane McCatty pitched 4 1/3 innings of stop-gap relief rather effectively, and could be pegged as a spot starter in Hagerstown.
• Blogosphere favorite Josh Wilkie had a nice 2ip, 3k outing on 4/25.
• After Garrett Mock‘s latest meltdown in Syracuse, the club placed him on the 7-day DL.  I have not found a source to state exactly what “injury” he has, but this is not the first time the club has suddenly found a DL-able injury for a pitcher down on his luck.  JD Martin has taken his place for the time being in the AAA rotation.
• As with Mock, Luis Atilano was placed on the DL in Harrisburg after his latest poor outing.  Atilano is legitimately coming off surgery and could be seeing residual effects.  At least he’s not holding space on the 40-man roster any more.

Trends

Here’s the trends for our starters in the 4 levels right now, to show whether they’re improving, had blips, or are constantly getting hammered.  Spot starters, guys now on the DL or guys demoted out of the rotation are in parentheses.

AAA trends:
Maya        bad,soso,soso,good
Detwiler    good,good,soso,soso
Martin     bad
Milone    good,soso,soso
Stammen    good,soso,great
(Mock        good,bad,really bad->DL)

AA Trends:
Meyers    good,bad,good,great
Martis     bad
EDavis    good,soso,good
Tatusko    soso,bad,bad
Peacock    soso,good,great
(Barthmaier    bad)
(Atilano    soso,bad->DL)

High-A Trends:
Rosenbaum    soso,good,good
Holder    soso,bad,bad
Frias        good,good,bad
Demny        good,bad,good
Clegg        soso,soso
(Caldera bad,bad)

Low-A Trends:
Selik        good,good,good,great
Grace        good,bad,bad,bad
McKenzie    good,bad,bad
Jordan    good,soso,good
Hansen    soso,good,very bad
(Applebee    bad,soso)

Cycle 3 through the Minor league rotations began with a number of double headers on Sunday 4/17.  Which means we’ll get lots of spot-starter opportunities later this week for guys not necessarily in the regular rotations.

Here are the daily links from NationalsProspects, for reference below:

• Sunday 4/17 game reviews (lots of DHs)
• Monday 4/18 game reviews
• Tuesday 4/19 game reviews (3 of 4 affiliates rained out)
• Wednesday 4/20 game reviews (DH for Potomac)
• Thurs 4/21 game reviews (DH for Hagerstown)

Good

• Brad Peacock‘s effort in the night cap of the 4/17 doubleheader made fans forget about the debacle in the first game.  Line: 5IP 2H 2R 1ER 1BB 9K.  He held the same lineup that battered Atilano for 7 runs to just 2 hits over 5.  Peacock is the youngest member (by two full years) of any starter in AA yet is pitching the best so far in the young season.
• Hagerstown’s Bobby Hansen improved on his so-so first outing with a better outing: 6IP 5H 1R 0ER 4BB 4K.  A bit to many walks and baserunners in general, but Hansen got a couple of double plays along the way and worked his way out of a bases-loaded jam in the 5th.
• Harrisburg ace Brad Meyers rebounded from his sub-par outing with a clean 5 innings of work for the win.  Line: 5IP 4H 1ER 0BB 3K.  His one earned run was on a solo-homer.  He remains the #1 candidate to be moved up if Syracuse needs a starter.
• Marcos Frias put in his 2nd excellent start in as many attempts, throwing 6 2/3 scoreless in the Potomac win on 4/18.  Line: 6⅔ IP 4H 0R 2BB 5K.  Its great to see him rebounding from his mediocre season in high-A last year.
• Cameron Selik is living up to his “ace” status in Hagerstown, putting in his 3rd straight dominating performance on 4/18.  Unfortunately his counterpart from Lakewood (Ervis Manzanillo) did him one better, going 6 scoreless innings and leaving the game to the bullpens to determine.   Final line: 5IP 1H 0R 1BB 11K.  He struck out the side in the 1st (inbetween a single and a walk) and the 5th (in order) before departing.
• Danny Rosenbaum got the win in Potomac with an outing that just makes its way into the “good” category.  Line: 7⅓ IP 6H 2R 2ER 5BB 2K.  We don’t have pitch counts in the Milb.com box score, but i’m assuming the team wouldn’t have let Rosenbaum go into the 8th if he was pushing 110 pitches.  5 walks implies lots of pitches.  Rosenbaum worked through one difficult inning (the 3rd) and then effectively scattered the rest of the hits and walks until the 8th.  His 2nd earned run was inherited and allowed to score by reliever Olbrychowski.

Bad

• Luis Atilano did his Nationals career no favors with his 4/17 outing: 1IP 8H 7ER 1BB 1K.  He couldn’t make the AAA rotation out of spring, and he’s put in two mediocre-to-bad outings in AA.  On the bright side, we got to see demoted starter Erik Arneson put in 5 innings of 1-run ball in long relief.  (Note: he has been placed on the minor league DL as of 4/21 per nationalsprospects.com; I wonder if the injury is a “bruised ego.”).
• Late spring training acquisition Lee Hyde has struggled thus far in AAA, and he added fuel to the Carr fire on 4/17 by giving up 2 hits and 3 walks in just a third of an inning to add a bow-tie on a game already gift wrapped for Lehigh Valley.  He’s yet to have a 1-2-3 outing in 5 appearances.
• Not the best outing for Trevor Holder on 4/17: 5⅔ IP 8H 6R 6ER 0BB 4K.   He came undone in two innings, giving up 3 hits in each inning for the majority of the runs scored.
• Alex Caldera could not take advantage of a spot start in the 2nd half of 4/17’s double header, only lasting 3+ innings.  Line: 3IP 5H 4R 4ER 2BB 2K.  Two of the five hits were homers.
• JD Martin was hit around badly in his spot start on 4/18, going for 3⅓ IP 9H 5ER 2BB 1K 2HR.  He only threw 35 of 68 pitches for strikes.  Some observers thought he’d be the “ace” of the AAA staff, but now its questionable if he’ll even get another shot at spot-start or rotation spot.
• Paul Demny had an off night in the first game of a 4/20 double-header in Potomac, getting battered around for 7 hits and 3 walks in just 4 innings (plus one batter in the 5th).  He gave up two homers and had a 4-6 go/fo ratio.  Not a good night for Demny.
• Matt Grace put in his 2nd sub-par outing in a row, getting battered around for 9 hits in 5 innings+, and took the loss.  Final line: 5IP 9H 4R 4ER 1BB 3K.
• Garrett Mock‘s 4/21 outing for Syracuse was so bad, the Masn Nats beat reporter Matt Goessling felt the need to post about it.  And I agree with Goessling’s sentiments; Mock probably has reached the low point of his professional career with this outing.  2 innings pitched (plus 5 additional batters in the third); 4 hits and SEVEN walks to account for 8 runs.
• Ryan Tatusko continues to struggle in Harrisburg, putting in his 3rd straight concerning outing.  This time around: 5⅓ IP 7H 3R 3ER 3BB 4K 0HR.   He threw 82 pitches (49 for strikes).  His line could have been worse: he had two hits erased for double plays, got a tag-out at home to eliminate a 4th possible run, and his bullpen eliminated all his leftover baserunners.
• Chris McKenzie couldn’t improve on his last outing and got hammered for 6 runs in just over 3 innings in the opening game of a day/night DH.  Line: 3⅓ IP 4H 6R 6ER 4BB 3K.  This outing was especially egregious considering that his team had given him a 5-2 lead prior to his calamitous 4th inning.

Mediocre/Inconclusive

• Craig Stammen‘s 4/17 start just trailed into the mediocre status for me.  Final line: 6⅔ IP 5H 3R 3ER 2BB 6K but he only threw 62 of 104 pitches for strikes.
• Taylor Jordan‘s 4/17 start could probably be viewed more positively than I have: he only gave up 6 base-runners in 6 innings for an excellent WHIP, but 3 of those runners scored to give him a pedestrian 4.50 ERA on the day.  Only 1 punchout on the day but he got 12 of his 16 balls in play to be grounders.  It isn’t the worst start we’ve seen this week and isn’t too bad considering Jordan’s youth.
• Yuniesky Maya‘s third start in AAA was as mediocre as his second, taking the loss in a game where he got little offensive support.  6IP 7H 3R 3ER 3BB 4K.  10 base runners in 6 innings, and he threw 118 pitches to get there.  The game-log is kind of interesting; he gave up all 3 runs in the first two innings, then settled down with a 1-2-3 3rd inning, then scattered 3 doubles in each of the next three innings.  He threw in a balk in the 1st, which more or less cost him one run that likely wouldn’t have scored otherwise (is it just me or does Maya balk nearly every appearance?   In 5 major league games last year he had 3 balks and 2 wps.  Usually a pitcher can go an entire season without a balk).
• Ross Detwiler‘s mind was probably on a possible spot-start in the majors, but instead went 6 complete on 4/20.  He got the win but didn’t look nearly as dominating as his first 2 starts.  Line: 6IP 9H 3R 3ER 1BB 3K.
• Erik Davis went 5 1/3 for Harrisburg and got a ND.  He gave up 2 runs, but also had 4 walks to go with 4 hits allowed.  He clearly struggled with control all night; 81 pitches but only 46 for strikes.
• Mitchell Clegg knew he had to go deep into the 4/20 nightcap, and he did; pitching 6 complete innings and getting the win for his efforts.  His line wasn’t fantastic: 6IP 7H 4R 4ER 2BB 2K, but he kept the ball down (11-4 grounder/flyball out ratio) and kept his team in the game.
• Paul Applebee got another spot-start in Hagerstown by virtue of all the rainouts, and this time put in a halfway decent line.  He gave up 4 runs (3 earned) on 6 hits through 5, but didn’t walk anyone.  He gave up two leadoff singles in the first, and his defense conspired to allow one of them to score.  He had an awful 2nd inning, giving up 3 runs on a single and 2 doubles, but then calmed down and set down 9 straight before exiting after 5.  The Hickory team was running wild with Applebee on the mound; 4 stolen bases out of 6 baserunners.  He may have a mechanical glitch or be incredibly slow to the plate.  I don’t think Applebee has earned his way back into the rotation yet, but the other starters in Hagerstown are struggling, and he may see more starts.

Relievers of Note and other Thoughts

• Adam Carr got absolutely shelled on 4/17; 2/3 of an inning, 5 hits, 5 runs and two homers.  Hopefully it is a one-off as his first three appearances were relatively clean.
• Erik Arneson (as noted above) pitched 5 relatively clean innings in a long-relief situation.  It is always tough to figure out if teams let up when they’re up by 7-8 runs, so it is with a slight grain of salt that we give full credit to the pitcher in a situation like this.
• Chris Manno continues his hot streak in Hagerstown, getting the win 4/18 with a 2k scoreless inning.  He was the unlucky loser on 4/21, getting a blown save and a loss despite not giving up an earned run.  The recap reads like a comedy of errors; a leadoff single turns into a run on a 3-base throwing error by the 3rd baseman Nichols, who then counfounds his error by somehow allowing a runner on third score on another grounder he fielded (were they not playing infield in?).  Then he throws the NEXT ball away as well for his 2nd error (but 3rd miscue) of the inning.  Ahh, low-A baseball.
• Henry Rodriguez‘s rehabilitation appearances are looking better and better.  He went 2 complete innings on 4/20, throwing 37 pitches in all.  This is good news for the big club.  His walk rate is still a bit high, but his K rate balances it out.
• Chad Jenkins had an ugly outing on 4/20, giving up 3 hits, a walk, a stolen base and 2 wild pitches en route to a 3 run inning.  Lets hope this isn’t the norm for Jenkins, who seems to be moving further and further down the depth chart in Hagerstown.
• I’m beginning to question whether or not Lee Hyde will continue to be employed by the Nats by the end of April.  He allowed all three of Mock’s inherited runs to score on 4/21, then proceeded to give up another four runs of his own over the next two innings.  He’s yet to have any semblance of a clean outing (his best outing was a 2/3 of an inning appearance where he still managed to walk one guy).  Through 7 1/3 innings pitched he’s given up 14 hits, 9 walks and 9 earned runs.

Summary

Not a lot to be happy about in the system this time around.  It shows in the sub-.500 records of our affiliates.

Former Kansas standout Cameron Selik has been a find for the Hagerstown rotation in 2011.

Turn #2 through the minor league rotations has completed.  Here’s a look at our starters.

Here are the daily links from NationalsProspects, for reference below:

• Tuesday 4/12 game reviews
• Wednesday 4/13 game reviews (DHs for Hagerstown and Potomac)
• Thursday 4/14 game reviews (DH for Syracuse)
• Friday 4/15 game reviews
• Saturday 4/16 game reviews (mostly rainouts; lots of DHs on sunday)

Good

• Taylor Jordan finally gets his turn in the Hagerstown rotation and pitches very effectively; 5IP 2H 0R 1BB 5K.  Not bad for a 5th starter in low-A.
• Paul Demny put up a nice line in a ND on a cold night on 4/13: 5 2/3, 1ER, 3 hits and 1bb with 4ks.  The one earned run was inherited and allowed to score by Paul Demmin who relieved him in the 6th and allowed a game-tying homer.
• Cameron Selik escaped a rough 1st inning and cruised for another 4, pitching 5 shut out innings for the 2nd outing in a row.  Final line: 5ip, 4hits, 2bbs, 0runs and 5ks.  Can’t beat a 0.00 era through 2 starts.
• Ross Detwiler‘s 2nd start was still good, albeit not quite as dominant as his first.  Line: 6IP 6H 1ER 2BB 4K.  Most of the hits were singles, well scattered.
• Erik Davis threw a shortened start (having been originally scheduled to go two days prior, only to have his game rained out).  Final line: 4IP 3H 0R 2BB 6K.  I’ll take 6ks in 4 innings in AA any day.
• Another good start for Potomac Ace Denny Rosenbaum, though his bullpen conspired to blow his Win.  Line: 5IP 5H 1R 1ER 2BB 6K.

Bad

• Jimmy Barthaimer‘s spot start in Harrisburg went badly: 2⅔ IP 5H 5ER 3BB 4K.  I like the K rate but 5 earned runs in 2 and 2/3s gave him the loss.
• Brad Meyers couldn’t follow up his gem and was touched for 9 hits in 4 2/3 inning in a loss on 4/13.  Final line: 4 2/3, 9hits, 4er, 5ks, 0bbs.  On the bright side, no walks and 60 of 84 pitches for strikes.
• Paul Applebee was hit hard in his Hagerstown spot start on 4/13: 4 2/3ip, 6hits, 5 runs, 2 walks and he gave up two gopher balls.   Oddly, the two homers were given up to the #8 hitter and the leadoff hitter in quick succession.
• Matt Grace got shelled on 4/14; 4IP 11H 6R 6ER 1BB 1K 2HR.  Not an impressive follow up to his first start.
• Garrett Mock continued to show why his retention is questioned by some observers.  He walked 7 of the 20 batters he faced and failed to get out of the 4th inning despite throwing 91 pitches (only 47 of which were for strikes).  He even threw in a balk to boot.  Final line on 4/15: 3⅔ IP 2H 3R 3ER 7BB 2K.  His frustration was evident; getting ejected in the 7th inning while sitting in the dugout.
• Ryan Tatusko followed up a shaky first start with a downright awful one: 3⅔ IP 10H 7R 7ER 3BB 2K on friday.  10 hits and 3 walks meant that 13 of the 23 batters he faced reached base.  That’s really tough to do.
• Christopher McKenzie went from a good first start to a shaky second start for Hagerstown.  Line on 4/15: 3⅓ IP 7H 5R 5ER 6BB 1K.  He’s averaging more than a walk an inning on the season and isn’t getting the strikeouts we saw last year.  He may be the starter to make way when Sammy Solis is ready to come off the DL.

Mediocre/Inconclusive

• Brad Peacock‘s 4/12 start line: 4⅔ IP 7H 2ER 1BB 3K.  Too many base-runners, though he managed to work around a lot of those runners to only allow the 2 runs.
• Mitchell Clegg‘s outing in the nightcap on 4/13 was so so: 4ip, 4hits, 2er, 1 bb and 3ks.  He also uncorked 2 wild pitches, had a hit batsman and balked during his brief outing (both of which factored into his first earned run allowed).  It sounds like it could have been worse for Clegg, who got a ND for his troubles on the night.
• Yuneski Maya‘s 2nd start was better than his first: 5⅔ IP 4H 2ER BB 5K and a no-decision.  Lets just hope he continues to settle down and improve.
• Tom Milone took the loss on saturday 4/16 despite getting a quality start.  Line: 6IP 6H 3R 3ER 0BB 5K.   Two of the 6 hits were solo homers (oddly, to the #’s 6 and 8 hitters), otherwise this was a decent outing.

Relievers of Note and other Thoughts

• Chris Manno‘s 4/12 line: 2IP 1H 0R 0BB 5K.  Wow!  The Manno-maniacs (is that the name of your fan club?) are ecstatic.  What a find this guy is looking like early in the 2011 season.  He threw another couple scoreless innings on 4/15 and he’s yet to give up a run in 2011.
• Erik Arneson pitched 3 1/3 innings of scoreless long relief on 4/13.  It could be interesting to see if he pitches his way out of the spot-starter role in AA and returns to the rotation.
• Cory VanAllen put in a nifty 3 inning stint to finish off a win for Erik Davis; 3ip 4ks and 2 hits (one homer).  He may not have succeeded as a starter, but he could provide LOOGY backup for the organization.
• Hassan Pena had a nifty relief appearance on 4/15: 2ip with 5ks.  The converted starter is repeating AA this year and is looking to improve on a 4.29 era in 2010.

Trends

Eventually i’ll post the trends of the starters, but with half the system with just one start b/c of rainouts, we’ll wait til next time.

Summary: Our spot starters didn’t help out at all, and they’ll probably get another opportunity in this next rotation cycle because of all the rainouts.  Lots of starters took steps back their 2nd time through.   Detwiler continues to look sharp, but there’s no room for him at the MLB level with our starters throwing so effectively.  A good problem to have.

Detwiler's first start in AAA was masterful. Photo: Cathy T via nationalsdailynews.com

Because of the importance of developing starting pitching in the modern baseball game, I’ve always tried to focus on the minor league rotations, looking for the next John Lannan (meaning, a lower round draft pick never expected to become a regular MLB starter) to rise through and force his way into the discussion for 2011 and beyond.  With 4 full-season teams all starting at the same time (and 2 more short-season teams starting up mid-June), i’ll try to do a quick review of the progress, start by start, of our minor league affiliates.  I will focus mostly on Starters but mention relievers of note.

For this analysis I depend heavily on the excellent reviews at NationalsProspects.com, as well as a series of level-by-level links that you can find at my personal “cheat sheet” of websites (scroll to the bottom for the affiliate-specific links for rosters, stats, schedules, and local paper links).  If it were not for “Sue Dinem” and April Whitzman at that site carrying on the flame for Brian Oliver and natsfarmauthority.com, it would be far more difficult to follow the minor leagues for all of us.  Thank you, again, for all that you do.

Here are the daily links from NationalsProspects, for reference below:

• Thursday 4/7 game reviews (opening day for most minor league affiliates)
• Friday 4/8 game reviews
• Saturday 4/9 game reviews
• Sunday 4/10 game reviews
• Monday 4/11 game reviews

Good

• Brad Meyers picks up right where he left off last season: 5IP 4H 0R 0BB 9K in his opening day start.  The staff had 15 k’s on the day against a very strong Bowie team (11 of the Orioles’ top 30 prospects are at Bowie).
• Cameron Selik‘s professional starting debut went very well in Hagerstown: 5IP 4H 0R 0BB 4K.  Not as overpowering as Meyers but 5 shutout innings with no walks is a good sign.
• Ross Detwiler‘s AAA debut was quite dominant; 6IP 4H 1ER 1BB 8K.  Remember, he’s not in AAA because he didn’t pitch his way off the major league roster.  I still believe he’s the first to be called up when needed.
• Lefty Matt Grace pitched well in his debut in Hagerstown: 6IP 4H 0R 0BB 4K.  I like the sleeper capabilities of Grace, an 8th round pick in 2010 out of UCLA.
• Garrett Mock‘s Nationals career continues on; he went 5 2/3s, 3 hits, 3bbs 1 run (on a homer) and 6 Ks in a ND against the Philadelphia AAA team from Lehigh Valley.
• Chris McKenzie‘s initial start was very good: 5IP 1H 1R 1ER 3BB 3K.  He’s young too; he doesn’t turn 22 til after the season.  A far cry from his numbers up in Vermont last season.
• Tom Milone’s 4/10 start was clean and efficient: 7.0IP 5H 0ER 0BB 4K.  You can’t quibble with 7 shutout innings and no walks in AAA.  All he’s done the last two seasons is produce, level by level.
• Craig Stammen‘s return to the rotation (after seemingly being considered for the MLB club as a middle reliever during spring training) went well: 5IP 3H 1ER 1BB 3K.  He’s in a tough spot; his FIP/xFIP numbers last year indicated he was pitching around MLB average for all starters (his numbers were 3.95/3.97, MLB median for qualified starters in 2010 was 3.85/4.09).  But his “regular” numbers were bad; era of 5.06 and whip of 1.46.  In some ways he’s kinda like JD Martin; he doesn’t really dazzle you with his stuff, but he gets it done.
• Marcos Frias took a loss in his opening start for Potomac but pitched well; 6IP 4H 1R 1ER 1BB 2K.  Lets hope his 2nd year in high-A goes better than his first (a 5.69 era in 2010).

Bad

• Yunesky Maya‘s opening day start was horrible.  4.2IP 8H 5ER 2BB 2K 1HR.  I’m a big Maya fan and want to see him succeed, but lines like this will make his signing seem like a mistake.

Mediocre/Inconclusive

• Ryan Tatusko‘s first start was cut short after just 4 innings (not sure why; he was only at 73 pitches).  4 hits, 4 walks, 5 Ks and 2 earned runs for a mediocre start.  Harrisburg’s offense couldn’t score any runs on the day so he wasn’t getting the Win regardless.
• Denny Rosenbaum‘s loss on 4/9 wasn’t that bad really; 5IP 2H 3R 2ER 3BB 4K.  Sue Dinem reported that two walks and an error led to a bases-clearing double.  Rosenbaum struck out 4 of the first 7 batters he faced, then retired the last 8 hitters after the double.  So I like the capability of dominance.
• Luis Atilano‘s line in his AA start (5.0IP 4H 2ER 2BB 2K) may seem ok, but I’d expect more from a guy who was pitching in the majors last year.  He is coming back from elbow surgery, so perhaps this is just rust.  Either way, i’m slightly surprised at this point to see him in any of our minor league rotations, given his removal from the 40-man and thus his lowered prospect status.
• Trevor Holder had a so-so start in high-A; 6IP 6H 3R 3ER 2BB 3K.  Potomac blogger Sue Dinem notes that (paraphrasing) Holder doesn’t have blow-it-by-you stuff and has to keep his pitches down to succeed (something he didn’t do much of yesterday).  I agree with commenters on the above link; Holder was an overdraft to begin with and was just OK last year in Potomac.  He may be bound for the bullpen.
• Bobby Hansen‘s first Hagerstown start was decent: 5IP 7H 2R 2ER BB 5K.  Too many baserunners but I like the K/inning rate.  He’s a youngster (doesn’t turn 22 til after the season) and a lefty, so I won’t be too critical.

Other notes/thoughts

• The Hagerstown Rotation has been fun to predict and now see unfold for those of us who track these things.  My offseason prediction was Solis, Clegg, Demny, Jenkins, and Grace.  Then when the roster was announced (and as it turned out Clegg/Demny were in high-A and Solis on the DL) I predicted Grace, Hansen, Jenkins, Jordan and McKenzie.  One turn through the rotation now seems to be Selik, Grace, McKenzie, Hansen and Jordan, with Applebee as a spot-starter.  Solis probably is still in the picture; he had a muscle injury and is extended spring training right now.
• JD Martin, whose retainment I have questioned in this forum based on his lack of upside, his age and his here-to-fore demonstrated performance in the majors, seems (at least so far) to be the long-man out of Syracuse’s bullpen and NOT in the rotation.  He pitched 4 innings of relief on 4/8, and while he pitched well (4IP 1H 0R 1BB 3K) I still don’t see him in the majors for us again (he successfully was outrighted to AAA and his 40-man slot may never appear again).
• As a possible consequence of the Martin decision, Craig Stammen is (at least for now) featuring as a AAA starter.  I find this somewhat encouraging for him right now; I think he can still produce as a starter.  But he may get moved to long-man as our AA prospects force promotions.
• Matt Chico seems to be now relegated to a LOOGY role in AAA, which may not be a bad thing for the team.  Slaten has struggled in the role and Chico could make his way back to the majors in a lefty specialist role.  I like this option, since Chico clearly can be stretched out and give the team spot starter/long relief as needed (especially since the team basically can’t use Broderick for anything but mop up duty right now).
• Commenter favorite Christopher Manno indeed seems to be the closer in Hagerstown, getting the save in friday’s game.
• Newly acquired Alex Caldera is off to a rocky start; he got absolutely shelled on 4/11.
• Late spring training acquisition Lee Hyde has been up and down so far for Syracuse.

Summary

All in all, a bunch of really encouraging starts up and down the system during the season’s first week.   Great news.  Only one really “bad” start in the whole system.  A bunch of rain outs over the last couple days prevented us from seeing several starters during the first “turn” through the rotation, but double headers for Potomac and Hagerstown will get everyone started.