So, something happened with my blog hosting provider and I believe they lost some prior posts. I can no longer see my 2021 CWS regional prediction piece. I suspect a hosting failure. Nonetheless, here’s a recap of the 16 regionals.
Quick Regional Recaps
We’ll review the 16 regionals in order of the larger bracket. Bold is the host/seed.
#1 Arkansas regional recap: #1 seed got a scare from Nebraska, got extended to the 7th game but advanced.
#16: Louisiana Tech regional recap: host La Tech scored a lot .. but also let NC State score a lot too and the ACC team advances.
#8: Texas Tech regional recap: Texas Tech managed to beat each of the 3 teams in its region to advance without much fuss.
#9: Stanford regional recap: UC Irvine extended the Cardinal, but Stanford prevailed.
#5 Arizona regional recap: Arizona handled #3 seeded UC Santa Barbara to advance without a loss.
#12 Ole Miss regional recap: Ole Miss got pushed by its in-state rival Southern Miss, but won out the 7th game.
#4 Vanderbilt regional recap: Vandy’s two aces provided the first two wins, and they dug deep to take out Georgia Tech in the regional final.
#13 ECU regional recap: East Carolina held serve over a plucky Maryland team to win.
#3 Tennessee regional recap: Tennessee outlasted local favorite Liberty, who blasted ACC champ Duke en route to the final.
#14 Oregon regional recap: Host Oregon could not stop LSU from fulfilling its destiny; they came out of the loser’s bracket to bash their way to the super regionals.
#6 TCU regional recap: TCU got knocked out by perennial power house Oregon State, but it was regional power Dallas Baptist who advanced.
#11 ODU regional recap: A crazy weather weekend featured the #1 seeded ODU taking out the host South Carolina, but UVA fighting out of the loser’s bracket to force the extra game, which got pushed to Tuesday morning. there, UVA walked off the win in extra innings to advance.
#7 Mississippi State regional recap: cruised to a 3-game regional win.
#10 Notre Dame regional recap: Notre Dame bashed their way to the super regional, scoring 50 (fifty!) runs in 3 games to win what looks like easily the weakest regional.
#15 Florida regional recap: powerhouse program Florida absolutely did not show up at their regional, going 2 and out as a national seed and losing their 2nd game 19-1. South Florida, the #4 seed in the group, takes out upstart South Alabama to advance in a shock.
#2 Texas regional recap: Texas destroyed all three teams in their regioanl, advancing by a combined score of 33-5 to move on.
Predictions versus Actuals:
- Predicted: Arkansas, Alabama, Texas Tech, Stanford, Arizona, Ole Miss, Vanderbilt, ECU, Tennessee, LSU, TCU, UVA, Miss State, Notre Dame, Florida Texas.
- Actual: Arkansas, NC State, Texas Tech, Stanford, Arizona, Ole Miss, Vanderbilt, ECU, Tennessee, LSU, Dallas Baptist, UVA, Mississippi State, Notre Dame, South Florida, Texas
So I got 13 out of 16 right. Missed on Alabama, TCU, Florida.
Summary of Regionals statistically:
- 11 of 16 hosts advanced.
- Just 1 of the 8 national seeds fell (#6 TCU)
- 4 of the 9-16 seeds fell: La Tech, Oregon, Florida, ODU
- 11 number one seeds, 1 number two seeds, 3 number three seeds, and 1 number four seeds advance to the super regionals.
- 4 number of #4 seeds who didn’t finish 4th in their regional; NJIT, South Florida, Central Michigan, North Dakota State
- 1: number of #4 seeds to get opening wins. only South Florida
- Most surprising regional winner: South Florida, obviously. Amazing when a #4 seed advances.
- # of “extended” regionals: 7 of the 16 went to the last game.
Conference Breakdowns of the teams in the Super Regionals:
- SEC: Arkansas, Ole Miss, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, LSU, Mississippi State,
- ACC: NC State, Notre Dame, UVA
- Big12: Texas Tech, Texas,
- Pac12: Stanford, Arizona
- Big 10: zero
- Others: East Carolina (AAC), Dallas Baptist (MVC), South Florida (AAC)
Very top heavy; SEC gets 6 of the 16 super regionalists. The rest of the top baseball conferences each get 2-3 teams as one might expect.
Super Regional Matchups: the higher ranked team is the host unless otherwise noted.
- #1 Arkansas vs NC State
- #8 Texas Tech vs #9 Stanford
- #5 Arizona vs #12 Ole Miss
- #4 Vanderbilt vs #13 East Carolina
- #3 Tennessee vs LSU
- Dallas Baptist vs UVA
- #7 Mississippi State vs #10 Notre Dame
- #2 Texas vs South Florida
Super Regional Thoughts/Predictions
- #1 Arkansas vs NC State; Arkansas is just too powerful and won’t be stopped.
- #8 Texas Tech vs #9 Stanford: I think Texas Tech is the favorite here.
- #5 Arizona vs #12 Ole Miss; a tough one to predict; Arizona looked a bit better in their regional.
- #4 Vanderbilt vs #13 East Carolina; Vandy not getting stopped in a super regional where they have the clear pitching advantage.
- #3 Tennessee vs LSU; LSU was swept at Tennessee earlier this year; it seems like that may happen again. LSU’s cinderella season ends.
- Dallas Baptist vs UVA: So, neither team put in a bid to host, so neither team could get a home field advantage; the Super Regional is being played on the campus of South Carolina, as was the ODU regional earlier. I think UVA has the advantage here.
- #7 Mississippi State vs #10 Notre Dame; I like what Notre Dame does at the plate and pick them to advance.
- #2 Texas vs South Florida: Texas looks way too strong.
CWS field predictions: Arkansas, TT, AZ, Vandy, Tenn, UVA, Notre Dame, Texas.
CWS Predictions: Early CWS final prediction: I like Arkansas over Vanderbilt and have for a while. But both are projecting to the same bracket in Omaha. So i’m going with Vandy vs Texas with Vandy winning.
Star Power at Super Regionals
Here’s a quick glance at the top draft picks that are still alive in the Super Regionals:
- Vanderbilt: Leiter and Rocker, both likely going top 5
- Texas: Ty Madden, their Ace
- Ole Miss: Gunnar Hogeland, their Ace
- NC State: Luca Tresh, a likely 2nd round Catcher, Jose Torres their SS.
- UVA: Zach Gelof, Andrew Abbott, Mike Vasil: all likely 2nd day picks.
- Mississippi State: Wil Bednar, Christian MacLeod, two solid arms.
- Arkansas: Christian Franklin, OF.
- East Carolina: Gavin Williams, RHP
- LSU: Landon Marceaux their new ace, but Jaden Hill was their friday night guy who went down with TJ and may still go first round.
College CWS tournament references:
- d1baseball.com’s daily scoreboard is my go-to link for detailed data
- d1baseball’s Tourney Central
- Baseball America’s College coverage home page
- CollegeBaseballDaily.com has coverage as well.
- CollegeBaseballCentral.com has coverage as well.
- Ncaa.com’s interactive full 64-team bracket
- NCAA Individual player stats
- Warren Nolan.com’s College Baseball RPI
- Warren Nolan’s Conference RPI rankings
Todd – long team reader, first time poster. Love the pieces you put on your site. Some of the better Nats commentary on your posts as well.
With that being said I’ll bring some reactionary commentary here on the current Nats.. if I’m rizzo I call all 29 other GMs tonight and say give me your best trade offer for every player on our team with the exception of Turner, Soto, and Max by end of week. For Max I wait July to see if the team can catch lightning in a bottle with a retooled team of call-ups and replacement level subs (however unlikely it is).
NatsMatt
8 Jun 21 at 10:42 pm
Good to have you along NatsMatt!
Nats in 2019 after 50 games: 19-31. Result, shocking turnaround, WS champ.
Nats in 2020 after 50 games: 19-31 again. Result? last place, lost season.
Nats in 2021 after 50 games: 21-29, last place in the NL East and not looking good.
More and more it’s looking like the two wild cards are both coming from NL West (which currently features the 3 best records in the league, pretty rare). So that means the nats have to win the division. Do any of us really see that happening? As we sit today, they’re 7 games out of the division and 9.5 games out of the wild card. A tall tale.
I’m inclined to write them off for 2021, and possibly for the next few years as they struggle through a rebuilding phase, but i also am on record waving the white flag in 2019. So lets hold off a bit.
Now, as for Natsmatt’s comment aobut calling other GMs … it may be a bit premature. The time to make trades is later in july when teams are more assured of their places in the playoff hunt. Plus, front offices right now are focused on the draft and preparing for that… after the draft, then they start working on trade deadline moves.
Who are trade candidates? https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1F2ffhCS3Wt8HKiyH7A2Rnsp3tuDw-jOPmvz6-w-fArI/edit
Per the above Cots link, here’s our total FAs after 2021: Scherzer, Hand, Castro, Gomes, Hudson, Avila, Joe Ross (amazingly), Mercer, Avilan (who had TJ), Harrison, Zimmerman
Guys with 2022 options: Schwarber, Lester
So, that’s a TON of expiring guys who could fetch prospects at the trade deadline if the team bails. Probably better to put this into a post later on when we get closer, but here’s quick categorization:
Pending FAs who absolutely will fetch solid prospects: Scherzer, Hand, Hudson, Harrison
Pending FAs who are useful pieces who can fetch something of value: Castro, Gomes, Lester, Schwarber,
Pending FAs who have been awful and will barely fetch anything, if at all: Avila, Joe Ross, Mercer, Avilan
Pending FAs who won’t be moved for obvious reasons: Zimmerman
Todd Boss
9 Jun 21 at 9:36 am
Lotta convergence in the mocks lately around the Nats coveting but likely having no shot at prep stud Jackson Jobe, maybe having a shot at freefalling former consensus 1-1 pick Rocker (I’m still not sold on this as being all that plausible), and probably ending up with future reliever Sam Bachman.
SaoMagnifico
9 Jun 21 at 11:36 pm
Could the Nats front office look at their system and realize how badly they needs hitting prospects? We’ll see.
Then again, this is the same f.o. that looks at Tanner Rainey’s 9-10 ERA and says that’s good enough for them.
Mark L
10 Jun 21 at 7:21 am
Jim Callis just posted an updated mock last night and has the Nats on Bachmman from Miami (OH).
11. Nationals: Sam Bachman, RHP, Miami (Ohio)
The Nationals appear to be focusing on arms, hoping that Jobe gets to them and having other clubs wondering if Rocker might. If that doesn’t happen, they’ll go for another pitcher with a high-octane fastball and slider in Bachman.
https://www.mlb.com/news/mock-mlb-draft-2021-june-9
Chris
10 Jun 21 at 9:30 am
Interesting note on Matheu Nelson from FSU, who is a guy Talk Nats has connected with the Nats in round 2:
Nevada prep outfielder Tyler Whitaker, Eastern Illinois shortstop Trey Sweeney, Boston College shortstop Cody Morissette, Florida State catcher Matheu Nelson and Saint Mary’s left-hander Ky Bush weren’t included in the 29 selections below, but they are getting increased first-round buzz as of late.
Chris
10 Jun 21 at 9:32 am
Every single mock i’ve seen from a credible source has the nats on either Jobe, Ty Madden or Sam Bachman.
its fools errand to try to predict a round 2 pick. I mean, the pros never even get the top 5 right, let alone projecting 40 picks out.
Todd Boss
10 Jun 21 at 10:09 am
ProspectsLive has Kumar Rocker to the Nats: https://www.prospectslive.com/mlb-draft/2021/5/11/2021-mlb-mock-draft-40-zwtc9
I’m still not sure how he’d get past Colorado, Anaheim, or Queens even if he falls past the top seven. But Colorado is increasingly linked to Bachman, and Anaheim and Queens seem to be top candidates for underslot deals in the first round according to those in the know…so, um, maybe?
I am just really unenthusiastic about Bachman, and I have to figure everyone who thinks Bachman is all that and a bag of chips is only looking at his statline and hasn’t actually watched him pitch. Seriously, watch him pitch, and tell me with a straight face you think a guy who is 6-foot-1 and has this pitching motion ends up as a healthy and productive major league starter: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=deyAOs2H3Mo
SaoMagnifico
10 Jun 21 at 11:27 am
Mike Axisa says the Nats “covet” Jobe and Bachman but seem to prefer Jobe if he’s still on the board. It’s Jobe at #11 in his mock for CBS Sports. Bleacher Report agrees Jobe is the top target but has him off the board a couple picks before so the Nats end up taking Bachman. Pretty clear picture coming into focus that the Nats will take Jobe or Rocker if they somehow slide to #11 and are otherwise expected to go with Bachman.
So much for playing it safe with a guy like Ty Madden or Jordan Wicks.
SaoMagnifico
11 Jun 21 at 12:26 pm
Really hard to take the PRospectsLive mock seriously. They have the top going Davis-Watson 1-2 … no other credible draft has Watson in their top 5 right now or Davis 1-1. And nobody has Rocker falling outside the top 6-7 picks.
I mean, yeah i’d be ecstatic if Rocker got to 11. But there’s just no way its happening.
Todd Boss
13 Jun 21 at 8:19 am
Bachman video thoughts: well, his mechanics could be worse. I don’t see a head thwack or max effort delivery. I see a guy with pretty clean mechanics, kind of like a Sonny Grey type. He could be a useful starter, but he doesn’t seem to project as a #1 starter.
Todd Boss
13 Jun 21 at 3:42 pm
Maybe I am jumping the gun a bit with wanted to start trade season, just having a difficult time thinking this team with breakthrough as a playoff team. Glad to see them take care of the Pirates last night.
For the draft, either of the college outfielders (Cowser/Frelick) interest me. Both have favorable BB/K ratios. Frelick seems like he could be a potential Robles replacement a couple years from now. As far as pitchers, Bachman doesn’t exactly make me feel warm and fuzzy either and I can’t see Rocker falling to us. Ty Madden has consistently produced, but similar to concerns about Rocker’s usage I wonder how he will hold up as a pro.
NatsMatt
15 Jun 21 at 9:49 am
Also, back to trade talk. Wonder if the Nats would pursue an NBA style salary swap/dump trade with Corbin, plus maybe a prospect. Would need to analyze other teams that would want to get off a contract, potentially a bat, that the Nats would prefer over Corbin. No way it happens but a Rendon for Corbin and Kieboom trade would be an all-timer…
NatsMatt
15 Jun 21 at 9:55 am
I’ve seen dozens of mock drafts by this point and practically every one has the nats on one of two names: Jobe or Bachman. One random draft had Rocker fallign to #11, which just seems impossible to consider.
Notably; no credible draft has the Nats picking a position player. It just does not match their by-now-well-established MO of running drafts. Ty Madden seems like a mid-teens pick; it’d be too high at #11.
Todd Boss
15 Jun 21 at 12:33 pm
Angels aren’t trading Rendon.
Dumping Corbin and his salary would probably COST the Nats prospects, especially given how poor corbin has been this year.
Kieboom’s current slash line in AAA: .233/.400/.360 as a corner infielder expected to hit for power. To say that the shine is officially off Kieboom’s prospect status is perhaps overstating the patently obvious. He’s nothing more than a replacement level player in terms of trade asset right now.
Todd Boss
15 Jun 21 at 12:35 pm