At the beginning of the season, Houston’s MLB rotation looked so weak that I asked in this space whether you would prefer to have the Houston Astros MLB rotation or the Durham Bulls (AAA affiliate of Tampa) Opening Day rotation?
Now, more than 2/3’s the way through the season, lets take another look. Here’s some quick links for reference: Houston’s B-R stats, Tampa’s B-R stats, Houston’s Fangraphs Stats, Tampa’s Fangraphs stats and MILB’s Durham stats.
All stats as of 8/6/13.
So, here’s how Houston’s opening day rotation has performed thus far:
| Rank | Name | Age | 2013 Stats as of 8/6/13 | Notes |
| 1 | Bud Norris | 28 | (MLB) 7-9, 3.89 ERA, 1.394 whip, 106 ERA+, 3.95 fip | Traded to Baltmore |
| 2 | Lucas Harrell | 28 | (MLB) 5-12, 5.37 ERA, 1.668 whip, 76 ERA+, 5.41 fip | Demoted to bullpen July 9th |
| 3 | Philip Humber | 30 | (MLB) 0-8, 9.59 ERA, 2.019 whip, 43 ERA+, 5.81 fip | Demoted to AAA May 11th |
| 4 | Erik Bedard | 34 | (MLB) 3-8, 4.29 ERA, 1.44 whip, 96 ERA+, 4.42 fip | Team is 6-14 in his starts |
| 5 | Brad Peacock | 25 | (MLB) 1-4, 7.25 ERA, 1.583 whip, 57 ERA+, 6.57 fip | Demoted to AAA April 30th |
Here I see one #4 starter (Norris), one #5 starter (Bedard), one guy who wouldn’t make any other team’s rotations (Harrell) and two abject failures in Humber and our own former farmhand Peacock (though it should be noted, Peacock just got recalled, threw 7 innings of 3-run ball, struck out 10 guys and lowered his ERA nearly a full point).
Now, here’s the same stats for Durham’s opening day rotation, showing MLB stats where I could:
| Rank | Name | Age | 2013 Stats as of 8/6/13 | Notes |
| 1 | Chris Archer | 24 | (MLB) 6-4, 2.65 ERA, 1.085 whip, 144 ERA+, 4.22 whip | Promoted June 1, 12 starts thus far |
| 2 | Jake Odorizzi | 23 | (AAA Dur): 8-5, 3.73 ERA, 1.20 whip | Has 3 spot starts in May and June with a 6.00 ERA in 18 MLB innings |
| 3 | Alex Colome | 25 | (AAA Dur): 4-6, 3.07 ERA, 1.31 whip | 3 spot starts in May/June with a 2.25 ERA in 16 mlb innings |
| 4 | Mike Montgomery | 23 | (AAA Dur): 46-5, 4.28 ERA, 1.43 whip | injured earlier in year, in minors all year. |
| 5 | Alex Torres | 25 | (MLB) 4-0 0.26 ERA, 0.612 whip, 1470 ERA+, 1.64 fip | Has given up 1 ER in 34 MLB innings pitching out of the pen. |
Durham’s opening day rotation has matriculated one mainstay to the Tampa rotation in Chris Archer (he has the best adjusted ERA+ of any of Tampa’s rotation right now) and a second guy in Alex Torres who has given up exactly one run in 34 mlb innings this year. Alex Colome had three effective spot starts, Jake Odorizzi had 3 relatively ineffective MLB spot starts, and Mike Montgomery missed some time with an injury and has not yet debuted. It should be noted that both Odorizzi and Montgomery are just 23 and still a bit young for the big stage.
So, which rotation would you rather have now? It isn’t like the Ray’s AAA guys Montgomery or Odorizzi could do any worse than what Houston’s 4th and 5th starters did this season. And you can clearly see that Archer’s performance trumps Norris’, and Torres’ amazing bullpen work is better than Bedard’s 96 ERA+ work.
The Rays continue to have the best pitching development system in the majors, even ahead of St. Louis, who turns out mid-90s hurler after mid-90s hurler.