Nationals Arm Race

"… the reason you win or lose is darn near always the same – pitching.” — Earl Weaver

Archive for the ‘jake agnos’ tag

Prep Baseball Update 2015: Virginia Regional Results, DC Tourneys

3 comments

Madison Baseball: 2015 6-A regional champs. Photo RT from @warhawkbaseball

Madison Baseball: 2015 6-A regional champs. Photo RT from @warhawkbaseball

Here’s the next big update on the state of High School baseball in the area.  We previously posted updates on:

In this post, we will cover the Virginia Regional results, preview the VA State brackets, finish up the DC tourney results, and have summaries to the Maryland and Private school results.

Virginia Regionals:

All regional brackets are available at this link; we won’t keep reposting links below.

6-A North Regionals: Here were your qualifiers:

  • Conference 5/Concorde: Chantilly, Oakton, Herndon, Centreville
  • Conference 6/Liberty: Madison, Fairfax, McLean, South Lakes
  • Conference 7/Potomac: Lake Braddock, South County, West Springfield, TC Williams
  • Conference 8/Cedar Run: Patriot, Osborne Park, Battlefield, Stonewall Jackson

My predictions: Oakton and Madison on one side, Patriot and Chantilly on the other.  Most of the expected Northern Region heavyweights are here and it should be a good tourney.

Regional games run from 5/29/15 to 6/5/15.  Here’s a rundown of the results:

In the 6-A North Regional first round on 5/29/15, there were plenty of upsets.  South Lakes shut out Potomac champ Lake Braddock and Centreville easily handled Cedar Run champion Patriot 11-5, eliminating two district champions.  The other two district champs (Madison and Chantilly) each advanced easily in the first round, with Madison throwing their ace lefty Brian Eckert (Radford commit).  Battlefield blanked Oakton 7-0 as Jake Agnos (East Carolina commit) picked right back up where he left off in his 21-K start, whiffing 13 through 6 innings and eliminating the team I thought might very well win the Region.  Liberty regular season champ McLean was trounced by South County 9-1, completing the penalty for their early-district tournament defeat.

In the 6-A North Regional Quarter finals on 6/1/15, Battlefield eased by South Lakes 8-2 and Chantilly handled South County 7-5.  Rain wreaked havoc in the area the evening of 6/1/15 so some of these teams may have to play back to back games this week.  Indeed, the other two games got pushed to 6/2/15; Centreville continued its upset ways by beating West Springfield 10-5 and Madison blasted Herndon 21-3.  This sets up two interesting Regional semi finals: Centreville and Chantilly are local rivals, while Battlefield & Madison met in the semis of a tournament in Myrtle Beach earlier this year and Madison won handily 11-1.

In the 6-A North Regional semis on 6/3/15, Madison and Battlefield faced off for the 2nd time this year, but this time with both team’s throwing their aces.  Battlefield’s Agnos threw 8 innings, struck out 14 and gave up 1 unearned run to finish an amazing post-season, but he was matched by Madison’s Eckert.  The game went to the 9th.  After having struck out the side in the top half of the inning with runners on 2nd and 3rd, Madison’s Pete Nielsen hit a walk-off single to win it for Madison and send them to the Regional final and state 6-A tournament.  On the other side, Chantilly beat Centreville 8-4 to return to both the Regional final and the 6-A state tournament for the 2nd year in a row.

Just a note on Agnos before moving on: in his final three starts (in the district final and his two regional starts) he threw 21 innings and struck out FOURTY-EIGHT batters.  I’ve never heard of such a feat; its amazing to me that he’s “only” just going to ECU and isn’t more prominently mentioned in the draft.

In the 6-A North Regional final on 6/5/15, coach Mark “Pudge” Gjormand’s Madison jumped out to a 5-0 lead early behind a 3-run homer from starting pitcher Matt Favero (who took a no-hitter into the 6th) and cruised to a 9-0 laugher in the regional final over Chantilly.  Next up for both teams is the 6-A state semi-finals.

 

6-A South Regional: Here were your qualifiers:

  • 6-A Conference 1/Coastal:  First Colonial, Cox
  • 6-A Conference 2/Monitor Merrimac: Western Branch, Grassfield
  • 6-A Conference 3: Cosby, Thomas Dale
  • 6-A Conference 4: Forest Park, Colonial Forge

Regional games run from 6/1/15 to 6/5/15.  Here’s a rundown of the results:

In the 6-A South Regional quarters, all four District champions advanced, mostly with ease.  Cosby beat Colonial Forge in a 2-1 squeaker, Western Branch pounded Cox, First Colonial eased by Grassfield (in what might have been an upset in reality), and Forest Park beat Thomas Dale.

In the 6-A South Regional semis, First Colonial ended Forest Park’s season 4-3.  Rain wreaked havoc on the 6-A south playoffs, with the Cosby/Western Branch semi rained out two nights in a row, forcing a push of the regional final.  When they finally played, Western Branch handled the Richmond power easily 8-2 to advance to the state tournament.

In the 6-A South Regional final, Western Branch beat First Colonial 2-1 in a tidewater battle.

5-A North Regional: Here were your qualifiers (not all conference contributed equal numbers of teams)

  • Conference 13/Capitol: Marshall, Edison, Stuart, Lee
  • Conference 14: Stone Bridge, Broad Run, Briar Woods
  • Conference 15: Mountain View, Potomac, North Stafford
  • Conference 16: Patrick Henry, Halifax County

Regional games run from 5/29/15 to 6/5/15.  Here’s a rundown of the results:

In the 5-A North Regional first round on 5/29/15, all three conference 13 teams playing lost (Edison, Stuart and Lee), indicating just how weak that conference was this year.  Conference 15’s #2 seed Potomac handled Briar Woods.

In the 5-A North Regional Quarter finals on 6/1/15 and 6/2/15, #1 seeds prevailed as Marshall, Stone Bridge, Mountain View and Patrick Henry-Ashland all advanced.

In the 5-A North Regional semis on 6/3/15, Stone Bridge beat Mountain View (Stafford) 4-1 to return to the regional final/state tourney for the second year.  Their opponent will  have to have played back-to-back games, as the Patrick Henry-Broad Run quarter was postponed two days in a row, backing up that part of the draw.  Stone Bridge outlasted Patrick Henry 3-2, setting up a final of Northern Virginia’s two best 5-A teams this year on Marshall’s home field.

In the 5-A North Regional final on 6/6/15, Stone Bridge won their second straight 5-A north title by beating Marshall on their home turf 10-7.

 

5-A South Regional: Here were your qualifiers:

  • Conference 9/Atlantic: Kellam, Princess Anne
  • Conference 10/PenSouth: Hickory, Menchville
  • Conference 11: Deep Run, Freeman
  • Conference 12: Clover Hill, Manchester

Lots of new faces in this regional … and two familiar ones.  Hickory beat Freeman in last year’s 5-A state final and could meet again in the regional final.  But Hickory would have to go through Kellam, a traditional powerhouse.

Regional games run from 6/2/15 to 6/5/15.  Here’s a rundown of the results:

In the 5-A South Regional quarters, rain forced the whole slate to 6/3 or 6/4, backing up the tournament badly.  Menchville (Newport News) upset Kellam 4-2 (though by their records it wasn’t much of an upset), Hickory advanced over Princess Anne easily 12-1.  The other two quarters were rained out *three days in a row* unbelievably, forcing the whole slate of the 5-A south tournament to shift.

In the 5-A South Regional semis, Hickory topped Menchville 7-4.  Clover Hill defeated Freeman in 10 innings … but was then forced to forfeit the game due to their using an ineligible pitcher.

In the 5-A South Regional final, Hickory took advantage of a tired Freeman team (a rematch of last year’s 5-A title game) and won the regional title.

 

Virginia Smaller Classifications: we’ll just summarize the regional finalists who are moving on to the state tournament.

  • 4-A North: All four district champs advanced the semis.  Jefferson Forest (Lynchburg) and Fauquier HS advanced to the final, and Fauquier won it.
  • 4-A South: Upsets abounded as Powhattan and Hanover upset district champs in the quarters.  North Richmond suburb rivals Glen Allen and Hanover (both from District 20) advanced to the regional finals, where Glen Allen beat the 2-time defending state champs again 15-4 for the regional title.
  • 3-A East; Loudoun Valley’s Jack DeGroat (committed to Liberty) threw a no-hitter in the 3-A East regional quarters over Culpepper.  Loudoun Valley advanced to the final, facing Lafayette from Williamsburg.  I guess they got rained out so many days in a row that they declared co-champions.
  • 3-A West: All four district champs advanced the semis.  There, Rustberg and Monticello advanced to the finals, won by Monticello.
  • 2-A East: Both local teams (Strasburg and George Mason) advanced to the Region semis.  George Mason’s season came to an end at the hands of Va Beach-based Maggie Walker, but Strasburg continued their recent dominance by winning the regional.
  • 2-A West: Virginia High and Lebanon advanced to the regional finals; Virginia High wins it.
  • 1-A: No DC-local schools are in the smallest 1-A classification.

State tourney matchups and tourney locations

All the state tourneys run from June 12th – 13th at the various sites.  Semis are at 3pm and 7pm on 6/12/15 and the finals are the next day (though it seems that some of these teams have graduation ceremonies this coming weekend, so the dates/times are in flux).  All state brackets available from this link at VHSL.

  • 6A- Robinson High school, in Fairfax for both semis and final
  • 5A – Lake Braddock HS for semis, Robinson for the final.
  • 4A – Liberty University, Lynchburg for both semis and final.
  • 3A – Liberty University, Lynchburg for both semis and final.
  • 2A – Radford University semis and final.
  • 1A – Salem for the semis, Radford for the final

Here’s the state matchups (? means the regional final results were still pending upon publish; we’ll update as we get them).

  • 6-A match-ups: Madison (22-5) vs First Colonial and Western Branch versus Chantilly (20-6)
  • 5-A match-ups: Stone Bridge (21-5) vs Freeman (19-6), and Hickory versus Marshall (21-5)
  • 4-A match-ups: Faquier (20-5) versus Hanover (18-5) and Glenn Allen (21-3) vs Jefferson Forest (18-8)
  • 3-A match-ups: Monticello vs ?, ? versus Rustberg
  • 2-A match-ups: Strasburg vs Lebanon, Virginia High vs Maggie Walker
  • 1-A match-ups: Honaker v ?, ? vs Radford

 

 

Recent Virginia HS champs:  Before 2014, we just covered AAA, which now is split between 4-A, 5-A and 6-A divisions.

2014: see this post for 2014’s state tournament wrap up for all 6 divisions.

  • In 6-A, Western Branch d Chantilly 6-4.  McLean and Cosby were state semifinalists.
  • In 5-A, Hickory d Freeman 6-4.  Stone bridge and the surprising Freedom-South Riding semi finalists.
  • In 4-A, Hanover d Millbrook 7-1.
  • In the smaller classifications, Loudoun Valley won 3-A, Virginia High won 2-A and Northumberland won 1-A.

2013: Hanover d Great Bridge. Hanover’s super-junior Derek Casey (committed to UVA) outlasts Great Bridge and their 1st round talent Connor Jones (now attending UVA after spurning a likely late 1st round draft position).  Lake Braddock and Oakton beaten in the semis.

2012: Lake Braddock d Kellam 4-0. Lake Braddock lost to West Springfield in the regional title game but then blitzed to a state championship.

2011: Great Bridge d South County in the state final, giving the powerful South County its first and only loss on the season after starting the season 28-0.  Lake Braddock was the regional finalist and lost to Great Bridge in the state quarters.

2010: West Springfield d Woodbridge in the final, giving Woodbridge its only loss on the year. WT Woodson regional finalist.

Complete history of Virginia HS Champions: from VHSL’s website.  Covers all sports and has results for a century.

 

Maryland

See previous post for MD state final wrap-ups.  Brackets here at the MPSAA website.

A quick list of past Maryland State champions by division:

The Maryland public high school seasons are now complete.

 

 

DC Public Schools/DCIAA:

  • DCIAA: Wilson won its 23rd consecutive DCIAA regular season title, extending its city league winning streak in the process.  DCIAA tournament runs through 6/3/15.
  • DCSAA: the 2015 tournament is underway, with the final scheduled for Nats park on 5/31/15.  Gonzaga is the #1 seed and Wilson the #2.  Curiously missing is St. Johns, who won the WCAC and is the defending DCSAA champ.  In the semis St. Albans upset Wilson to setup a final against Gonzaga.  In that final, Gonzaga beat St. Albans 2-1 at Nats Park on a controversial interference call that turned a tag-out at the plate into the decisive run.

 

Private Leagues: WCAC/MAC/IAC and VISAA/Maryland Private

All local area Private schools’ seasons are now complete.

 

Player of the Year Awards

Gatorade announced their player of the year awards:

  • Maryland: Chopticon’s Ljay Newsome, who pitched the game of his life in the Maryland 3-A championship, won the award in Maryland.  He has yet to declare for a college.
  • Washington DC: St. John’s A.J. Lee won the award for the 2nd consecutive year.  Committed to Maryland.
  • Virginia: The Steward School (Richmond)’s Nic Enright won the award in Virginia.   He’s committed to Virginia Tech.

Local and National High School Baseball Ranking Lists:

  • Washington Post All Met Sports latest Baseball top 10:: Spalding, Gaithersburg 1-2, then Oakton, Madison, and Battlefield.  Stone Bridge 8th despite a win over Madison in Vienna.  This hasn’t been updated for regional and state tournaments; i’d guess we’d see Madison and Stone Bridge rise slightly but likely not overtake Maryland’s two best teams unless they win states.
  • Baltimore Sun Rankings page : dated 5/25/15: They also have Spalding #1, then Calvert Hall, St. Marys, 4-A finalist Severna Park and then 3-A finalist Mt. Hebron.  Reservoir 6th.
  • Hampton Roads Baseball top 10 page: dated 5/19/15: Western Branch #1, then Grassfield & Hickory.
  • Baseball America’s High School top 25 (most recent ranking 6/2/15): no DC/MD/VA teams listed.
  • USA Today High School top 25 (most recent ranking 5/20/15): Western Branch closest to top-25, ranked 26th.  Spalding (both Washington Post’s and Baltimore Sun’s #1 team) ranked 42nd nationally.
  • USA Today’s Virginia-only rankings: no longer seem to be in existence.
  • MaxPreps top 25/top 50 lists, which has a hand-picked and a computer/power ranking list.  5/24/15 rankings.  No DC/MD/VA teams in MaxPrep’s “Excellent 50.”  Highest ranked teams in the area are Liberty Christina (#55), Western Branch (#67), Turner Ashby (#72).  Chopticon and Spalding are in the 75-100 range.

Resources:

  • Washington Post’s AllMetSports section with standings and schedule results.
  • InsideNova.com‘s coverage of high school sports, but has put limits on the number of stories you can read.
  • The Connection family of newspapers has a sports section that is rarely updated, but it does do some coverage.
  • MaxPreps.com also has some non-paywall HS information that comes in handy too.
  • Nvdaily.com (Strasburg) has some results for some of the teams in the smaller conferences/outskirts of DC, generally in the Strasburg area.
  • WinchesterStar (Winchester) has results for Winchester teams but its pay-only.
  • The Daily Progress (Culpeper local paper) also has some scores for schools in its areas.
  • Faquier Times (Fauquier) has some local sports news.
  • VivaLoudoun tracks the Loudoun/Ashburn/Leesburg teams.
  • Fredericksburg.com has some local coverage of Fredericksburg and Woodbridge teams.
  • Richmond Times-Dispatch has a HS scoreboard.
  • Hampton Roads Pilot (Hampton Roads) has scores for teams in the Chesapeake/Norfolk/Va Beach area.
  • The Baltimore Sun’s high school page has information on some of the programs outside the DC area mentioned in the Maryland section
  • I use perfectgame.org to look up high-end HS prospects.
  • VHSL’s and MPSSAA home pages for playoff brackets and updates for VA and MD respectively.

 

 

Written by Todd Boss

June 8th, 2015 at 8:45 am

Posted in Local Baseball

Tagged with , , , , , , , , , ,

Pre-2015 Draft coverage; mocks and local players

41 comments

Swanson seems likely to be 1-1 pick. Photo by Joe Howell.

Swanson seems likely to be 1-1 pick. Photo by Joe Howell.

The MLB rule-4 (Amateur) draft starts on Monday 6/8/15 at 7pm.  See MLB Network for the best coverage.  Since we’re also going to be talking about prep regional results and CWS results early next week, I thought i’d get this draft coverage post out there.  This post has good links to use to see draft prospect rankings, then links to help cover the draft starting monday, then some blurbs on local players of interest, and then links to a bunch of mock drafts.

Draft Coverage so far at NAR for 2015:

Here’s a slew of Draft Prospect rankings : these are NOT the same as mock drafts; see further down for those.

Draft Links of importance

  • MLB.com Official 2015 Draft Central home page.
  • MLB’s Awesome Draft Tracker; you can slice and dice the draft 10 different ways, search by schools and home states, etc.
  • Official MLB 2015 Draft Order (Nats first pick is #58 well into the 2nd round, next #69, then #103, then #134 in the 4th round, and then 134+30 picks there-after.
  • Official Draft Bonus Pool totals.  Astros have $17M (most).  Nats have 3rd least at $4.1M.
  • MLB Draft Database
  • Fangraphs Sortable Draft Board; a great new tool Fangraphs has that lets you slice and dice their top draft board.
  • Baseball-Reference Draft Tools: links to their draft database plus some custom reports.

Now, some news about College Players with local ties

  • Nathan Kirby Lat strain Press Release: UVA’s ace Kirby, considered a mid-to-late 1st rounder, missed a huge chunk of the season with a Lat Strain.  If the cards fall right, he may be able to pitch UVA’s 3rd regional game.  MLB has him ranked #26, as does BA.
  • Mike Matuella, of Great Falls (Georgetown Prep) and Duke, remains a back-end of the 1st round draft prospect but is also rehabbing his own TJ surgery.  He has far less of a track record than other college arms, and may be a crap shoot in the draft.  MLB has him ranked #28, BA #23.
  • Taylor Clarke, who hails from Ashburn (Broad Run HS), was named the CAA pitcher of the year while putting up stellar numbers for the College of Charleston, a trendy underdog pick to reach the CWS.  MLB has him ranked #144, so that’s perhaps a 4th-5th rounder, while BA has him higher at #118.  Here’s a draft profile of him from scout.com.
  • Joe McCarthy, OF for UVA, missed most of the season with a back injury and then hit horribly after wards.  His draft stock has dropped from a supp-1st to probably the back end of the 2nd round.  MLB has him ranked #68, BA #46.
  • Josh Sborz got dumped out of UVA’s rotation but still is ranked #115 in MLB’s pre-draft rankings (projecting to a 3rd-4th rounder).
  • Brandon Waddell had a good season as UVA’s #2 starter … and MLB projects him as a 5th rounder at #163.  BA has him at #153.
  • University of Maryland’s two best draft prospects are Alex Robinson (MLB ranked #124) and Brandon Lowe (MLB ranked #148).  Robinson is #74 on BA’s top 500 list and Lowe is #98 on BA’s list.
  • Radford’s Michael Boyle has pushed his draft stock up with his team’s post-season performance; BA has him ranked #132, which puts him in the 4th-5th round.

Local Prep players of note:

  • Cody Morris, probably the best local player matriculating this year, had to undergo TJ surgery and likely scuttling his draft plans.  Luckily he had already taken a scholarship offer to South Carolina, where he will now presumably attend and rehab to get ready for the 2016 season.  BA still has him ranked #265 but the odds of a team taking him in the 8th round seem slim.
  • A.J. Lee of St. Johns earned his 2nd straight Gatorade DC player of the year award and remains committed to Maryland; I do not sense he is a significant draft prospect and will go to College.  He is not in BA’s top 500 prospects.
  • Ljay Newsome of Chopticon (south of Waldorf) made some noise with his stellar 3-A state final game; he has not picked a college and I wonder if he’s headed for the draft.  He is not in BA’s top 500 prospects.
  • Nic Enright of Steward HS in Richmond (2015 Gatorade player of the year) is signed to Va Tech but ranked #132 by MLB.  Will he sign if he gets 3rd round money?  BA’s got him ranked far lower; #230, in the range of draft rankings where it makes more sense for him to go to school.

Other players of interest to Nats fans:

  • Andrew Suarez, the Nats’ 2nd round pick of last year, had a decent if not spectacular senior season at Miami and may end up getting picked right in the same spot.  MLB has him #75, BA #73.
  • Austin Byler, the Nats’ 9th round pick of last year, is ranked #199 by MLB (but much higher at #115 by BA) putting him in the 7th round or so.  Not too much of an improvement over last year; his senior season was more of the same for him; lots of power, perhaps stuck at 1B so will really have to hit his way moving forward.
  • Skye Bolt, the Nats’ 26th round pick in 2012, had a great UNC career and is ranked #67 by MLB ahead of the draft.  BA has him a bit lower at #106.  Maybe the Nats can draft him again since this is right around where their first 2015 draft pick falls.

Mock Draft Guesses

Sometimes you just can’t help yourself.  I like mock drafts from writers I like.  Since the Nats don’t pick until midway through the 2nd round, there’s no point (like in years’ past) in trying to project the Nats pick.  So here’s some popular pundits and their mocks, with their top 5 predictions (Law = Espn, McDaniel = Fangraphs, Callis & Mayo = Mlb.com, Manual = Baseball America and Crawford = Baseball Prospectus)

  • Keith Law Mock #1: Dansby Swanson, Alex Bregman, Dillon Tate, Brendan Rodgers, Kyle Tucker
  • Keith Law Mock #2: Swanson, Rodgers, Tyler Jay, Tate, Tucker
  • Keith Law Mock #3 (on ESPN podcast): Swanson, Bregman, Rodgers, Tate, Tucker
  • Keith Law final Mock: Swanson, Bregman, Rodgers, Trenton Clark, Andrew Benintendi
  • Kiley McDaniel Mock #1: Swanson, Rodgers, Tate, Kyle Funkhouser, Daz Cameron
  • Kiley McDaniel Mock #2: Swanson, Rodgers, Jay, Bregman, Tucker
  • Kiley McDaniel Mock #3: Swanson, Bregman, Rodgers, Tate, Tucker
  • Jim Callis Mock #1: Swanson, Rodgers, Jay, Cameron, Carson Fulmer
  • Jim Callis Mock #2: Swanson, Bregman, Rodgers, Cameron, Tucker
  • Jim Callis: Final Mock: Swanson, Bregman, Rodgers, Tate, Benintendi
  • Jonathan Mayo Mock #1: Tate, Rodgers, Swanson, Cameron, Fulmer
  • Jonathan Mayo Mock #2: Swanson, Rodgers, Jay, Cameron, Tate
  • Jonathan Mayo Final Mock: Swanson, Bregman, Rodgers, Cameron, Tate
  • John Manual Mock #1: Tate, Swanson, Rodgers, Jon Harris, Tucker
  • John Manual Mock #2: Fulmer, Swanson, Rodgers, Tate, Tucker
  • John Manual Mock #3: Jay, Swanson, Rodgers, Tate, Tucker
  • John Manual Mock #4: Swanson, Bregman, Jay, Rodgers, Cameron
  • Jeff Ellis/Scout.com Final Mock: Swanson, Bregman, Rodgers, Tate, Tucker
  • David Rawnsley/si.com final mock: Swanson, Bregman, Rodgers, Tate, Cameron
  • Chris Crawford Mock #1: Garrett Whitley, Swanson, Rodgers, … the rest behind a pay-wall.
  • Ryan Sullivan/NatsGM final mock: Swanson, Bregman, Rodgers, Tate, Tucker
  • D1baseball.com Mock #1: Swanson … and the rest behind a pay-wall.
  • Jon Sickels/MinorLeagueBall Mock #1: Swanson, Bregman, Jay, Rodgers, Tucker
  • PerfectGame.org’s mock drafts and coverage now behind a pay-wall.

Todd Boss’ Mock draft?  Based on my vast level of expertise (sarcasm) and the thousands of man hours i’ve put in scouting players in person and cultivating industry sources (also sarcasm), I’ll take this as my guess for the top 5:

  1. Swanson: I think Swanson’s post-season hitting combined with his positional flexibility and the decline of all the upper-end college arms that have been mentioned in the conversation for 1-1 (First Aiken & Matuella, then Tate, then Funkhouser and Fulmer) has cemented Swanson’s spot at 1-1.  In other years, he’d be lucky to go in the top 10.  Not this year.  Arizona goes with the least risk; proven college hitter.
  2. Bregman: practically every connected pundit now has Bregman going 2nd.  Houston gets a sure thing and goes prep with #5.
  3. Rodgers: Houston hasn’t backed away from HS players before and get the best one, a SS with power, at #2.
  4. Tate: Tate’s regional performance pushed him back into this lofty level and he’s a better bet than Jay thanks to his reliever status all year.  Colorado likes college arms this high.  He makes the most sense.  If this pick isn’t Tate, its Jay.
  5. Tucker: practically everyone has Houston’s 2nd pick on Tucker, meaning they’re taking two upper-end prep talents.  Plus the Astros know the family; Kyle’s older brother Preston was a 7th round pick by Houston in 2012 and made his debut this year.  Makes too much sense.

So, just so you know, this guess matches the final mocks of Law, McDaniel and Ellis, and is nearly identical to the final mocks of a couple others.

This top 5 means some big time names are available 6-10.  Cameron, Jay, Fulmer, Clark and Harris could very well be in the next 4-5 guys picked.  Funkhouser seems to be slipping.  Also throw the likes of Andrew Benintendi, Tyler Stephenson, and Walker Buehler into the top 10 possible mix.

ACTUAL DRAFT Results added on 6/7/15: Swanson, Bregman, Rodgers, Tate, Tucker.  A number of the experts above had the top 5 pegged.  Yours truly … changed his prediction last minute to match the consensus and “got it right” too 🙂

Written by Todd Boss

June 5th, 2015 at 9:46 am

Posted in Draft,Local Baseball

Tagged with , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Prep Baseball Update 2015: Maryland State Champs, Northern VA District Champs crowned

8 comments

When we last checked in with Prep Baseball in Mid May,  Maryland was through its regionals, the private schools were mostly done, DC was still finishing the regular season, and Virginia was just starting up its District (aka “Conference”) tournaments.  Lets see where we stand now after the Memorial Day weekend and a slew of tournament results.

Text in Red are pending results, mostly from the southern Virginia districts and regionals, which don’t have to start as soon as Northern Virginia tourneys.

Virginia

Here are the Virginia Conference champions, regular season and tournament.  All these playoff brackets, if they exist, are at this link at VHSL.  I won’t re-link all the playoff brackets per district/region below.

6-A North Region

  • 6-A Conference 5/Concorde: Chantilly regular season champ.  Seeds held to form in the district tourney and Chantilly met Oakton in the district final.  Chantilly beat Oakton 2-1 to take the district title.
  • 6-A Conference 6/Liberty: McLean regular season champ.  #5 seed Fairfax upset McLean to make the District final, where they met Madison.  In the district final, Madison avenged an earlier loss to Fairfax to win 2-0 at home to take the title.
  • 6-A Conference 7/Potomac: Lake Braddock regular season champ.  #2 and #3 seeds Annandale and West Potomac were both upset and knocked out of Regional competition.  Lake Braddock met #6 seed South County in the district final and beat them easily 12-4 to win the title.
  • 6-A Conference 8/Cedar Run: Patriot regular season champ.  Battlefield had to forfeit its semi-final win over pitcher innings/pitch count limits, so Osbourn Park made the district final, where it subsequently beat Patriot in extras to win an unlikely district title.  Battlefield’s forfeit was absurd; their starter Jake Agnos struck out 21 *straight batters* in the 6-1 victory … and then resulted in a forfeit loss.  Agnos gave up a lead-off homer … and then retired the next 21 guys he faced.  I’ve never heard of such a feat.

6-A North Regional Qualifiers (in seed order).  Here’s the 6-A North bracket.  Play begins 5/29/15.

  • Conference 5/Concorde: Chantilly, Oakton, Herndon, Centreville
  • Conference 6/Liberty: Madison, Fairfax, McLean, South Lakes
  • Conference 7/Potomac: Lake Braddock, South County, West Springfield, TC Williams
  • Conference 8/Cedar Run: Patriot, Osborne Park, Battlefield, Stonewall Jackson

Quick predictions for 6-A North regional tourney: I like Madison, Oakton, Patriot and Battlefield, since they were basically the best 6-A teams all year.  But do not count out Chantilly or McLean.  Thanks to their district forfeit, Battlefield drops to a #3 regional seed and a headache for a higher seeded team.  And McLean’s upset loss dumps them to a #3 seed as well in the region, despite besting perhaps the best 6-A baseball district in the regular season.  With the draws out, Battlefield faces Oakton in the first round, which is tough.  If seeds hold it’ll be Lake Braddock-Madison and Patriot-Chantilly in the regional semis.

6-A South Region: which is mostly big-time schools in Richmond, Roanoke and Virginia Beach area.  But there are just enough schools in Woodbridge proper to form a 6-A conference closer to DC with teams that are typically considered for All-Met rankings.  Because 6-A’s regional is only 8 teams, their district tournaments are not yet complete as of the time of this posting.

  • 6-A Conference 1/Coastal: First Colonial (aka Mark Reynolds‘ alma mater) regular season champs.  They were upset in the districts but still qualify for the regionals.  In the district final, Cox claimed the second regional birth with a win over Ocean Lakes.
  • 6-A Conference 2/Monitor Merrimac: Western Branch regular season champ.  However #2 Grassfield got them in the district tourney final.
  • 6-A Conference 3: Franklin County (Rocky Mount, south of Roanoke) regular season champ.  In the district tourney #5 seed Cosby scored three straight upsets to claim the district title, beating Thomas Dale in the final.  Cosby made the State semis last year and is looking to get back after an up-and-down regular season.
  • 6-A Conference 4: Forest Park (Woodbridge) regular season champ.  Forest Park also won the district tournament, beating Colonial Forge 10-2 in the final.  Colonial Forge had upset #2 seed and perennial powerhouse Hylton in the district tourney semis to claim the 2nd regional berth.

6-A South Regional Qualifiers (district finals 5/29/15)

  • 6-A Conference 1/Coastal:  First Colonial, Cox
  • 6-A Conference 2/Monitor Merrimac: Western Branch, Grassfield
  • 6-A Conference 3: Cosby, Thomas Dale
  • 6-A Conference 4: Forest Park, Colonial Forge

Quick predictions for 6-A South regional tourney: Western Branch is the only team in the state getting national attention, and they’re ranked #1 in the Hampton paper’s local rankings.  So I look for them to claw their way to the state tournament.

5-A North Region

  • 5-A Conference 13/Capitol: Marshall regular season champ.  Seeds held to form (with Marshall beating Lee by the astounding score of 21-0 in the district semis), and Marshall met Edison in the final.  In that final Marshall beat Edison 4-1 for its 10th straight win.
  • 5-A Conference 14: Stone Bridge (Ashburn) regular season champ.  In the playoffs, 1/2 met in the final and Stone Bridge beat Broad Run for the district title.  In the 3rd place game, Briar Woods grabbed the 3rd regional bid.
  • 5-A Conference 15: Mountain View (Stafford) regular season champ.  In the playoffs Mountain View and Potomac (Dumfries) met in the finals, where Mountain View pulverized them 10-0.  In the 3rd place game, North Stafford easily grabbed the 3rd regional bid.
  • 5-A Conference 16: Halifax County regular season champ.  They met #2 seed Patrick Henry in the final and Patrick Henry upset Halifax for the district title.

5-A North Regional Qualifiers (in seed order): 5-A North regional bracket here.  Play begins on 5/29/15.

  • Conference 13/Capitol: Marshall, Edison, Stuart, Lee
  • Conference 14: Stone Bridge, Broad Run, Briar Woods
  • Conference 15: Mountain View, Potomac, North Stafford
  • Conference 16: Patrick Henry, Halifax County

Quick predictions for 5-A North regional tourney: I like Stone Bridge to repeat, Marshall could be a challenger.  They are on opposite sides of the draw and could both make the regional final.  But non-DC area teams like Patrick Henry and Mountain View could be challengers.

5-A South Region

  • 5-A Conference 9/Atlantic: Kellam (in Virginia Beach, aka Ryan Zimmerman‘s alma mater) regular season champ.  Kellam was upset in the district tournament, with Princess Anne claiming the 2nd regional berth by winning the tourney.
  • 5-A Conference 10/PenSouth: Hickory (Chesapeake) regular season champ (also defending 5-A state champ).  Hickory advanced to the district final along with Menchville, who upset 2nd seeded Great Bridge along the way, before Hickory claimed the district tourney as well.
  • 5-A Conference 11: Deep Run (Glen Allen/Northern Richmond suburb) regular season champ (Freeman, last year’s 5-A state finalist, was 2nd in the district).  The two teams met in the final with Deep Run getting the double.
  • 5-A Conference 12: Manchester (Midlothian/Southern Richmond suburb) regular season champ.  Clover Hill took the district title and the #1 seed in the regionals.

5-A South Regional Qualifiers (in seed order): (district finals 5/29/15)

  • Conference 9/Atlantic: Kellam, Princess Anne
  • Conference 10/PenSouth: Hickory, Menchville
  • Conference 11: Deep Run, Freeman
  • Conference 12: Clover Hill, Manchester

 

Quick thoughts: hard not to believe in the pedigree of Hickory and Freeman; I fully expect them to meet in the regional final.

Smaller Virginia Classifications with Northern Virginia ties.

4-A North:

  • 4-A conference 21: Woodgrove regular season champ.   Woodgrove also won the tourney, beating Sherando in the district final (both teams move to the 4-A North Regional). 
  • 4-A Conference 22: Fauquier regular season champ and tourney champ, beating Eastern View in the final.

3-A East Region

  • 3-A Conference 27: Kettle Run regular season champ, Culpepper #2.  They met in the tourney final as well, with Kettle Run taking both regular and post-season district titles.
  • 3-A Conference 28: Loudoun Valley (regularly in the AllMet top 10 rankings) regular season champ.  They also took the post-season tourney, beating #2 seed John Champe in the final.

2-A East Region

  • 2-A Conference 35: Strasburg continues its local dominance, winning the district again.  Falls Church’s George Mason (easily the smallest public high school in the Northern Virginia suburbs) was the #3 district seed but advanced to the district finals to face Strasburg.  Strasburg took the tourney final, but George Mason advances to the regional tournament.

 

Maryland

Here’s the state finals results in Maryland, played the week of 5/18/15  Brackets here at the MPSAA website.

  • 4-A States: State Semis were Perry Hall v Severna Park, Gaithersburg-Wise.  Severna Park and Gaithersburg each dominated their state semi to force a high-powered showdown of good teams in the 4-A final.  In that final, Gaithersburg beat Severna Park 5-3 at Ripken Stadium in Aberdeen for its first ever state baseball title.
  • 3-A States: State semi finalists were North Harford (Plyville in North Maryland), Mt. Hebron in Ellicott City, Chopticon (way down in St. Mary’s county) and Urbana (just south of Frederick).  In the state-semis, Mt. Hebron and Chopticon won close games to make the final.  In the final, Chopticon’s ace Ljay Newsome threw a complete game 1-hitter with 17 strikeouts to win the title 1-0.
  • 2-A States: State semi finalists: Eastern Tech, Patterson Mill, South Carroll and last  year’s champ Southern.  Eastern Tech and Southern each won 1-run games to make the 2-A final.  In the final, Southern beat Eastern Tech 6-1 to repeat as 2-A champs.
  • 1-A States: State semi finalists: McDonough, Colonel Richardson, Douglass and Brunswick make up this year’s 1-A state semis (mostly smaller schools outside the DC area).  In the state semis, McDonough will face off against the tough-looking Brunswick team.  Brunswick won the title 4-0.

A quick list of past Maryland State champions by division:

The Maryland public high school seasons are now complete.

DC Public Schools/DCIAA:

  • DCIAA: Wilson won its 23rd consecutive DCIAA regular season title, extending its city league winning streak in the process.  DCIAA tournament runs through 6/3/15.
  • DCSAA: the 2015 tournament is underway, with the final scheduled for Nats park on 5/31/15.  Gonzaga is the #1 seed and Wilson the #2.  Curiously missing is St. Johns, who won the WCAC and is DC-based.  St. Albans upset Wilson in the semis to face Gonzaga in the final.

Private Leagues: WCAC/MAC/IAC and VISAA/Maryland Private

Most private schools’ seasons are now complete.

Speaking of Liberty Christian … apparently the school had an open lawsuit against the Virginia High School League (VHSL) regarding membership, and the VHSL settled on 5/20/15.  The implication?  Quoting the link, “all non-boarding private schools in Virginia will be permitted to apply for membership in the VHSL.”   Liberty Christian Academy will now join the 4-A conference 23 (which covers the Lynchburg and Charlottesville area) and can compete for state titles in all sports.

I wonder if this ruling will lead to the various private schools in the Northern Virginia Area (including typical sports powerhouses such as Paul VI, O’Connell, Flint Hill, Bishop Ireton, etc) leaving the WCAC and joining the public schools.  I doubt it frankly; even the largest of these schools would be dwarfed by the 5-A and 6-A enrollment public high schools, and the WCAC is a fantastic league.  InsideNova had a piece on the topic quoting several area ADs of private schools (including Paul VI’s Billy Emerson, a class-mate and longtime teammate of mine), who think perhaps this ruling makes it easier for teams to schedule public opponents … but doubts any league changes will occur with DC-area teams thanks to the strength of the private school leagues here.

Local and National High School Baseball Ranking Lists:

  • Washington Post All Met Sports latest Baseball top 10: ?? date: Spalding, Gaithersburg 1-2, then Oakton, Madison, and Battlefield.  Stone Bridge 8th despite a win over Madison in Vienna.
  • Baltimore Sun Rankings page : dated 5/25/15: They also have Spalding #1, then Calvert Hall, St. Marys, 4-A finalist Severna Park and then 3-A finalist Mt. Hebron.  Reservoir 6th.
  • Hampton Roads Baseball top 10 page: dated 5/19/15: Western Branch #1, then Grassfield & Hickory.
  • Baseball America’s High School top 25 (most recent ranking 5/5/15): no DC/MD/VA teams listed.
  • USA Today High School top 25 (most recent ranking 5/20/15): Western Branch closest to top-25, ranked 26th.  Spalding (both Washington Post’s and Baltimore Sun’s #1 team) ranked 42nd nationally.
  • USA Today’s Virginia-only rankings: no longer seem to be in existence.
  • MaxPreps top 25/top 50 lists, which has a hand-picked and a computer/power ranking list.  5/24/15 rankings.  No DC/MD/VA teams in MaxPrep’s “Excellent 50.”  Highest ranked teams in the area are Liberty Christina (#55), Western Branch (#67), Turner Ashby (#72).  Chopticon and Spalding are in the 75-100 range.

Resources:

  • Washington Post’s AllMetSports section with standings and schedule results.
  • InsideNova.com‘s coverage of high school sports, but has put limits on the number of stories you can read.
  • The Connection family of newspapers has a sports section that is rarely updated, but it does do some coverage.
  • MaxPreps.com also has some non-paywall HS information that comes in handy too.
  • Nvdaily.com (Strasburg) has some results for some of the teams in the smaller conferences/outskirts of DC, generally in the Strasburg area.
  • WinchesterStar (Winchester) has results for Winchester teams but its pay-only.
  • The Daily Progress (Culpeper local paper) also has some scores for schools in its areas.
  • Fredericksburg.com has some local coverage of Fredericksburg and Woodbridge teams.
  • Richmond Times-Dispatch has a HS scoreboard.
  • Hampton Roads Pilot (Hampton Roads) has scores for teams in the Chesapeake/Norfolk/Va Beach area.
  • The Baltimore Sun’s high school page has information on some of the programs outside the DC area mentioned in the Maryland section
  • I use perfectgame.org to look up high-end HS prospects.
  • VHSL’s and MPSSAA home pages for playoff brackets and updates for VA and MD respectively.

 

Written by Todd Boss

May 28th, 2015 at 9:04 am

Posted in Local Baseball

Tagged with , , , ,

Newer Entries »