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Ladson’s inbox 3/1/15

Roark; the lost starter. Photo Alex Brandon/AP via wp.com

I havn’t posted something in weeks. I was facing writers block. What is there to really write about in the early weeks of Spring Training? Thankfully, MLB.com beat reporter Bill Ladson piped up with an inbox!

As always, these are (presumably) real questions from (presumably) real Nats fans who took time out of their busy day to email Ladson personally. And as always, i write my response here before reading his so as not to color my own opinion.

Q: Would the Nationals consider a six-man rotation so Tanner Roark isn’t left out?

A: Uh, no. You don’t commit $210M to Max Scherzer and then immediately tell him and all the other veterans in the rotation that their entire work preparation process is going to be adjusted, for the first time ever by any MLB team, to account for a guy with a year and a half of service in Tanner Roark.

By going to a 6-man rotation for an entire 162-game season, you’d be lowering the number of starts for each guy by at least 6. What would you rather have, 6 less starts by the likes of Scherzer and Strasburg, or 20-some starts for Roark? I like Roark too, and trust me I wouldn’t mind a bit for a trade to enable him to be the 5th starter again, but this team has made its bed with this contract.

Ladson says that Roark will be in the bullpen as the long man when the season starts. Cutting-edge analysis!

Q: If the Nationals and Jordan Zimmermann cannot come to an agreement and he signs somewhere else, what kind of effect will this have on the Nationals in general?

A: Not as much as you might think. Yes, losing a near-Ace is never good, but this team has a 5-win starter pushed to the bullpen right now, and has significant depth in AAA. I’m of the belief that a lot of the Scherzer signing was about providing rotation stability through the next few years as the team (likely) parts ways with a significant portion of its current rotation through free agency. Two years from now you’re probably looking at a rotation that goes Scherzer, Gonzalez, Roark, Cole and Giolito. And the Nats will have likely acquired a whole slew of upper-level prospects either by trade or by virtue of supplemental draft picks. Ladson confidently says “there will be no effect at all” because Matt Williams “won’t allow it.” Beat reporter bravado? Of *course* there will be an effect; we’re talking about what will probably be a difficult and nasty separation when all is said and done.

Q: Why is Gio Gonzalez starting over Roark? Roark is clearly better. Gio won’t throw strikes.

A: Simple answer: because Gonzalez is lefty. Secondary issue; Gonzalez is getting paid more than 20 *times* what Roark is in 2015. I’m not entirely in disagreement here; I’ve been a Roark believer ever since he got called up. But he’s going to be the odd man out in this competition no matter how good he looks this spring. Ladson says Gio was his good ole self after getting past his shoulder injury.

Q: I like Drew Storen and his numbers are, overall, excellent. I have to admit, though, I worry about him in close games in the postseason. Am I overly concerned about the fact that 2012 and ’14 playoffs saw him blow saves in key games?

A: Three words for you: Short. Sample. Size. Like it or not (and I too fall victim to this), you just can’t look at a couple of outings in the post-season and judge a guy. Exhibit 1a: Clayton Kershaw‘s career post-season era is 5.12. I killed Storen‘s 2014 NLDS performance too, but in reality he was rather unlucky to blow Zimmermann’s gem (Posey kind of fisted the ball into center and then Sandoval hit a down-and-away pitch for a very well-placed double to tie the game). Storen’s regular season record speaks for itself right now: he had a frigging 1.12 ERA last year!

I say, lets worry about *making* the post-season first, then lets see how the games go. At some point you have to think the Nats will, you know, hit the ball in a post-season series to the point where it won’t matter whether our closer will pitch a 1-2-3 ninth. Lets you forget: the team slash line in the 2014 NLDS was .164/.222/.258 and in the 2012 NLDS was .232/.290/.393. That’s not very good.

Ladson basically says the same thing.

Q: Do you expect a significant contribution from any of the players signed to Minor League contracts?

A: We already talked about the NRIs in depth. Short answer is this: *maybe* one of the veteran right handers might have an impact but not immediately. And we might very well see one of the lefty-hitting vets pushing Tyler Moore for the last spot on the roster. Ladson thinks Mike Carp in particular is going to contribute off the bench … which means he’s predicting Carp to make the 25-man roster?

Q: Which Minor Leaguers could get called up during the season?

A: I think we’ll see at least three of the AAA starters at some point during the year (guessing Treinen, Cole and Jordan). I could see Matt Grace getting some MLB time. I’m sure we’ll see a backup catcher in Dan Butler at some point. If Michael Taylor doesn’t start out on the 25-man roster to replace Jayson Werth, then i’m sure we’ll see him at some point.

Perhaps a better question would be this: what non-40man roster guys could you see getting call-ups mid-season? Rafael Martin comes to mind, as well as someone like Emmanuel Burriss or Matt Skole if the team gets stuck on the injury front.

Ladson mentions Cole and Grace … and then says that he could see Giolito getting a September call-up. That’s the dumbest thing i’ve read in a while. Why in god’s name would we want to start Giolito’s clock early like that?? If he’s MLB ready by the end of 2015 …. then you sit on him in AAA for two weeks in 2016 and call him up mid-April. That’s it. Every day he spends pitching useless innings in Sept 2015 would be another day the team has to wait for him in 2016.

Q: Do you see Danny Espinosa on this team in 2016? It seems like he has gotten a lot more slack than anyone on the team. Additionally, what are the team’s long-term plans for second base?

A: I see no reason for Espinosa not to be on this team in 2016, if he continues to serve as an adequate backup. There’s no reason to cut him, and there’s not really anyone better who is that close to the majors. I’m not sure if i’d characterize the way the Nationals have handled him as “slack;” in fact the Nats have now gone out of their way to replace him as the starter both with the Cabrera trade mid-2014 and with the Escobar trade this past off-season. Long term you have to think the team is waiting for Wilmer Difo as the long-term 2B solution .. if he can step it up and advance two levels in 2015 he may be ready by mid 2016. I’m not as convinced that Tony Renda (who is “ahead” of Difo on the org 2b chart) is a real MLB prospect at this point. There’s practically nobody of interest at either AAA or AA right now who rates as a prospect. There’s also a possiblity that newly-acquired-but-not-yet-with-us Trea Turner could be a solution … but the team is hoping he can stick at short. Ladson basically agrees.

Written by Todd Boss

March 2nd, 2015 at 11:13 am

What is the benchmark for a “good” or “bad” draft?

39 comments

Will Fedde make the 2014 draft a “success?” Photo via chicagonow.com

The title of my previous post was pretty simple: “Nats 2014 Draft == failure.” And it resulted in a rather spirited debate in the comments about the 2014 draft, the 2008 draft in hindsight, etc.

In that debate, I postulated my benchmarks for judging whether or not a team’s draft was “good” or not. Here were the six guidelines I stated for judgement, going round by round/section by section in the draft:

a. 1st rounder: future MLB above average regular to all-star
b. 2nd rounder: future MLB regular
c. 3rd-5th: expect at least one future MLB player in at least a backup/bullpen role
d. 6th-10th: hope for at least one player to reach the MLB level.
e. 11th-20th: hope for at least three players who matriculate to AA or higher
f. 20th and above: hope for one-two players to matriculate to AA or higher

Lets go back through all 10 Nats drafts and see whether these guidelines hold up. For each of the 6 requirements, we’ll give a quick “yes/no the condition was met” for each year. Critical to this analysis is the Nats DraftTracker XLS, milb.com and baseball-reference.com for searching for old players. Also useful is the Baseball America executive database, which populated the staff in charge of each draft.

Editors Note post-posting: I’ve added in the total known bonus amounts, per suggestion in the comments. Data taken from the Draft Tracker. Actual figures are likely higher because most bonus figures past the 10th round are unknown (but likely minimal). Also per good suggestion, I’m adding in the draft position for context, since its far easier to get a future all-star if picking in the top 5 versus later on.

2005: Owner: MLB. President: n/a. GM: Jim Bowden. Scouting Director: Dana Brown. Drafting 4th overall. Total Bonus $ spent: $3,990,500

a. Yes: 1st rounder Ryan Zimmerman: MLB above average regular (former all-star)
b. n/a: we had no 2nd rounder; forfeited for Vinny Castilla
c. Yes: 4th rounder Justin Maxwell turned into a 4th outfielder. No 3rd rounder.
d. Yes: 6th rounder Marco Estrada has turned into a decent starter (albeit for someone else after we released him)
e. Yes: 11th rounder John Lannan and 12th rounder Craig Stammen turned into MLBers, far above expectations here. 18th rounder Tim Pahuta had long ML career for us, playing 3 years at AA.
f. Yes: 33rd rounder Ryan Butcher was a 6yr MLFA who left the org but now has MLB experience with Atlanta. No other 20th+ round draftees made it out of A-ball, but Butcher’s MLB matriculation makes up for it.

2005: Success, inarguably. 6 guys matriculating to the majors is a winning draft, especially considering the lack of a 2nd or 3rd round pick, the ownership confusion, and the budget restrictions put on the team.

2006: Owner: MLB. President: n/a. GM: Bowden. Scouting Director: Brown. Drafting 15th overall. Total Bonus $ spent: $5,222,000

a. No: 1st rounder Chris Marrero looks like a 4-a guy at best and 1st rounder Colten Willems never made it above A-ball.
b. No: the team failed to sign 2nd rounder Sean Black and 2nd rounder Stephen Englund never made it out of low-A.
c. No: none of their 3rd-5th picks made the majors. The highest one of these guys got was 5th rounder Corey VanAllen, who did pitch in AAA after passing through the rule-5 draft and finished out his 6-years with the org. VanAllen is in Indy ball in 2014.
d. No: they didn’t even sign their 7th, 9th or 10th round picks. The closest they got to a MLBer here was 6th rounder Zech Zinicola, who played at AAA for quite a while, was rule-5 picked and returned, and now sits in Baltimore’s AA team.
e. Yes: 12th rounder Cole Kimball made it the majors briefly, while 17th rounder Erik Arnesen, 18th rounder Adam Carr and 13th rounder Hassan Pena all toiled in AAA for several years.
f. Yes, sort of. We’re all well aware of the success of 41st rounder Brad Peacock, but he was picked under the “draft-and-follow” system that no longer exists. So while yes it was a 41st round pick, in our current system Peacock wouldn’t have been picked at all and/or wouldn’t have signed but would have been picked the subsequent year based on his great first-college juco season. Of the rest of the 20th+ round picks, one guy had a couple months in AA (26th rounder Brett Logan) to serve as a backup catcher; he hit .102/.170/.122 in 20 games in 2007 and was released.

2006: Failure: 3 guys who have MLB appearances but near zero impact for this team. Peacock enabled the Nats to get Gio Gonzalez but I think we see now that Peacock wasn’t the driving prospect in that deal (now that Derek Norris has made an all-star team).

For as much as went right for the team in the 2005 draft, it went wrong in 2006. Was the lack of signing their 7th, 9th and 10th round picks evident of “fiscal restraint” demanded by the other 29 owners? Clearly to me, the focus on HS drafted personnel in this draft has Bowden’s hands all over it, and almost none of them panned out in the slightest.

2007: Owner: Ted Lerner group. President: Stan Kasten. GM: Bowden. Scouting Director: Brown. Assistant GM/VP, Baseball Operations: Mike Rizzo. Drafting 6th overall. Total Bonus $ spent: $7,619,300

a. No: The team went one-for-three on its first rounders: Michael Burgess got to AA in his fourth pro season but never further, was flipped for Tom Gorzelanny. Josh Smoker‘s failure has been well documented here. But Ross Detwiler, for all the complaining about his usage and role in this space, did make the majors and looked like a good 4th starter (in 2012). I still believe he could start in this league and is better than a long-man. However, the condition is that a first round pick turns into a successful regular, and this crop failed in all regards.
b. Yes. 2nd rounder Jordan Zimmermann is now a 2-time all-star and is probably the best 2nd round pick the organization has ever had. His successes make up for their other 2nd rounder Jake Smolinksi who has made his MLB debut but not until he became a 6-yr MLFA.
c. Yes. 4th rounder Derek Norris made the 2014 all-star team for Oakland. 3rd rounder Stephen Souza has debuted in the majors and looks quite promising (albeit blocked) for our AAA team. 5th rounder Brad Meyers toiled for us in AAA for years before being released this spring after a long injury recovery.
d. Yes: 10th round pick Patrick McCoy made it to AAA for us, signed with Detroit as a MLFA and debuted this year. We should note for the record though that 6th rounder Jack McGeary was paid as if he was a low-1st rounder and failed pretty spectacularly here.
e. Yes: 20th rounder Jeff Mandel was a long-serving org arm at AA and AAA. 11th rounder Bill Rhinehart was looking like a find, appearning on Nats system prospect lists for a while and getting to AAA before getting flipped for Jonny Gomes.
f. Yes: 28th rounder Boomer Whiting made it to Syracuse before getting released in 2011. 48th rounder (!) Kyle Gunderson was flipped for Logan Kensing in 2009 and made it to Miami/Florida’s AAA squad before getting released.

2007: Success: despite the 1st round failures and the McGeary disaster, the breadth of success in the other categories and the production of the remaining guys weighs out.

2008: Owner: Lerner. President: Kasten. GM: Bowden. Scouting Director: Brown. Assistant GM/VP, Baseball Operations: Rizzo. Drafting 9th overall. Total Bonus $ spent: $4,766,500

a. No: as is well documented, the Nats failed to sign 1st round pick Aaron Crow.
b. No/Inc: 2nd round pick Destin Hood has already passed through Rule-5 waivers once, but has found himself in 2014 and is hitting great for Syracuse (2014’s AAA line: .308/.353/.502). It does make one wonder if he’s worth adding to the 40-man once the season is over to keep him; he’s finishing his 7th pro year and is in line for minor league free agency.
c. Yes: 3rd rounder Danny Espinosa has his critics, but he’s at least a MLB backup or possibly more. 5th rounder Adrian Nieto has stuck with the White Sox after getting plucked in the Rule-5 draft last year and hasn’t been half bad.
d. Yes: 10th rounder Tommy Milone has shown his capabilities as a MLB starter. d. 6th-10th: hope for at least one player to reach the MLB level. 6th rounder Paul Demny remains in the system (on the D/L in Harrisburg) but doesn’t seem like he’ll go much higher at this point.
e. Yes: 16th rounder Tyler Moore has put in meaningful at-bats for the Nats for a few years now. And 19th rounder Steve Lombardozzi looks to be a solid utility/backup infielder in this league for years. Lastly I wonder if the team gave up on 15th rounder J.P. Ramirez too soon; he was paid like a 2nd round pick but was released prior to his MLFA period. He may have only made it to high-A, but his last season was somewhat decent.
f. No: as far as I can tell, nobody of note came in rounds 20 or above from this draft.

2008: Failure: How would you judge this draft? We failed to sign the first rounder, which for me is a huge negative. The second rounder may or may not ever debut in the majors, which is also for me a huge negative because of the huge prevalence of 1st and 2nd rounders on MLB rosters. But we got four (5 counting Nieto) other MLBers out of the rest of the draft, including some very deep-dive picks that you rarely find (Moore and Lombardozzi, aside from Peacock, are the two lowest round picks to ever make it to the majors for this team).

2009: Owner: Lerner. President: Kasten. GM: Rizzo. Scouting Director: Brown. Drafting 1st overall. Total Bonus $ spent: $18,806,000

a. Yes: no arguing about either first round pick here: both Stephen Strasburg and Drew Storen have pitched at all-star levels in their careers.
b. No: 2nd Rounder Jeff Kobernus may have made his MLB debut, but he’s nowhere close to being a “regular” in the majors right now and doens’t seem to be trending that way either.
c. No: 3rd round pick Trevor Holder was a gross over-draft (albeit with known reasons; the team committed an *awful* lot of money to the first two guys on this list) and was released in 2013. 4th rounder A.J. Morris looked quite promising for us, was flipped in the Gorzelanny deal, and this year is pitching effectively for Pittsburgh’s AAA squad after being taken in the minor league Rule-5 portion last off-season. And the Nats failed to sign their 5th rounder. So even if Morris pans out as a MLB-capable player, he’s doing it for someone else.
d. Yes: 9th round pick Taylor Jordan was effective for the team last year and may yet figure in the team’s plans despite his mysterious D/L trip right now. And 6th round pick Michael Taylor has rocketed up the prospect lists for this team, is crushing AA pitching right now, is on the team’s 40-man roster and may very well get a look as 2015’s starting center fielder.
e. Yes: 12th rounder Nathan Karns made the org look quite intelligent when he gave spot starts in 2013 after rocketing up the farm system after finally recovering from arm issues. I wonder if the success they had with Karns was the first impetus for Rizzo to take more gambles on high-end-but-injured arms. 13th rounder Patrick Lehman has bounced around as an org arm for years. 11th rounder Juston Bloxom played a couple years in AA before getting released this year. 16th rounder Sean Nicol is splitting time between AA and AAA this year. Finally, I wanted to note something I never knew before studying this: the Nats drafted Marcus Strohman in the 18th round out of HS; this is the same Strohman who went in the first round three years later to Toronto and who is currently holding down a rotation spot for the playoff-pushing Blue Jays. Wow. He’s listed as a SS on the draft-tracker but clearly is a MLB-calibre starter.
f. Yes: 22nd rounder Danny Rosenbaum has been Syracuse’s “ace” for three seasons now. And a slew of guys drafted in the 20s stuck around for years as middle relievers (Mitchell Clegg, Matt Swynenberg, Evan Bronson, Rob Wort, and Shane McCatty). You just can’t ask for more out of your picks in rounds 20-30.

2009: Success: I’ll take a couple of misses in the 2nd and 3rd rounds given the amount of talent they picked up in the middle and late rounds. Great draft. 6 guys who have debuted in the majors with at least another one likely coming soon.

Note: from 2010 onwards, most of the judgement calls are still “in progress.” We’ll use projections and “small sample sizes” to pass judgement. It is what it is. Feel free to criticize in the comments about using projections and national pundit scouting reports to make judgements.

2010: Owner: Lerner. President: Kasten. GM: Rizzo. Scouting Director: Kris Kline. Drafting 1st overall. Total Bonus $ spent: $11,413,200

a. Yes: 1st rounder Bryce Harper has turned into everything the hype suggested. Fun fact; when he went on an rehab assignment in Potomac, he was the 2nd youngest guy on the roster. Remember that when you criticize the guy for not being better than he already is: if he was “playing by the rules,” he’d be jsut finishing his junior year of college.
b. No/Inc: 2nd rounder Sammy Solis has been one injury issue after another. He missed all of 2012 with Tommy John, came back slowly in 2013, but now sits on the AA D/L with another “elbow” issue. He was protected on the 40-man roster last fall, but you have to wonder what’s to come of him. He’s finishing his 5th pro season and he’s got exactly one start above A-Ball.
c. Yes/Inc: 4th rounder A.J. Cole was paid like a late first rounder, and after some struggles he’s really come onto the scene this year. He was already really young for AA and “solved” it, and is now in AAA holding his own. The other guys in this category are less impressive: both Rick Hague and Jason Martinson are repeating AA and not really hitting well enough to push for promotions. This could be a side-effect of the huge amount of money committed to Harper and Cole.
d. Yes: 9th round pick Aaron Barrett went from unknown/unrecognized prospect to the Nats 40-man roster last fall to being lights-out middle reliever in the major league pen this year. As a 9th round college senior pick. 8th rounder Matthew Grace may be next; after toiling as a mediocre starter, he became a reliever in 2013 and has been lights out in AA and AAA this year. And he’s not just a LOOGY: 56 IP in 33 appearances and he’s given up just 6 ER in that time.
e. Yes: 15th round pick David Freitas, after getting traded to Oakland for Kurt Suzuki, got traded again to Baltimore and now is in AAA. 12th round pick Robbie Ray has made his MLB debut for Detroit after going over in the Doug Fister deal. 11th rounder Neil Holland toils in the Harrisburg pen admirably.
f. Yes: 23rd rounder Colin Bates and 26th rounder Christopher Manno both are in the Harrisburg pen. 22nd rounder Cameron Selik made it to AA before hitting his ceiling and being released earlier this year. And 32nd rounder Randolph Oduber is a starting OF in Potomac with decent splits and a shot of moving up.

2010: Success: It may have been a no-brainer to take Harper, and it may have been an example of the “checkbook” winning in their picks of Cole and Ray, but you have to hand it to this team; they bought two high-end prep guys out of their college and they’re both looking like huge successes. And they got a MLB servicable reliever out of a college senior sign who they paid just $35,000 in bonus money. Great work.

2011: Owner: Lerner. President/GM: Rizzo. Scouting Director Kline. Drafting 6th overall. Total Bonus $ spent: $11,325,000

a. Yes: 1st rounder Anthony Rendon was on everyone’s “all star snub” lists this year, while their other 1st rounder Alex Meyer remains one of the top pitching prospects in the game and seems likely to debut later this year. Their supp-1st rounder Brian Goodwin remains on every pundit’s prospect lists even if he seemingly has been passed on the organizational “future starting Center-fielder” depth chart. There’s no chance the team leaves him exposed in the upcoming rule-5 draft, so he’ll have at least three more years to prove he belongs.
b. n/a: forfeited for Adam LaRoche signing.
c. No/Inc: Right now our 3rd through 5th picks are looking iffy; 4th rounder Matthew Purke was paid like an upper first rounder and has been a massive disappointment. Right now he’s recovering from Tommy John and faces an uncertain future. 4th rounder Kylin Turnbull has gotten lit up in high-A this year, his second crack at the league. 5th rounder Matt Skole may be the most promising of the bunch; he crushed 27 homers in his first season of full-season ball only to miss all of 2013 because of a freak injury. Can Skole continue developing and make the majors on a full-time basis? Can Purke at this point?
d. Yes: With the call-up of 6th rounder Taylor Hill earlier this year, this category is met. Which is good because the rest of the 6th-10th rounders from this year are struggling. Two are already released/retired, one is MIA and the lone remaining active player (Brian Dupra) is struggling as a starter/swing-man in AA. But Hill is a huge win; a college senior draftee on minimal bonus rocketing through the minors and forcing his way onto the 25-man roster.
e. Yes/Inc: It is far too early to fully judge this category, but it is looking promising despite the fact that the team failed to sign SIX of its ten picks beween the 11th and 20th round. 11th rounder Caleb Ramsey is already in AA. 16th rounder Deion Williams is on the mound (not a SS as in the Draft Tracker) and is struggling in short-A. 18th rounder Nick Lee is struggling in Potomac this year but has shown a huge arm and seems like he’ll eventually convert to loogy (especially considering his undersized stature); I can see Lee making it far as a matchup lefty reliever with swing-and-miss stuff. The lone failure at this point is 12th rounder Blake Monar, sort of inexplicably released after a decent 2012 season in Short-A.
f. Yes: 30th round pick Bryan Harper earned his way to Harrisburg. 45th round college senior pick Richie Mirowski also made it to AA, where he wasn’t half bad last year, though at the moment he’s back in Potomac. And there’s three other players drafted in the 20th or higher who are active on Potomac’s roster this year and who may get moved up. Decent production out of the bottom of this draft so far.

2011: Projected Success: As discussed before, I believe the selection of Rendon was a “no-brainer” based on a unique set of circumstances that occured on draft day, but credit the management team for having the stones to pick him when other GMs didn’t. I’m sure the Mariners (especially) would like a re-do on that draft (they picked 2nd overall, got soft-tossing local product Danny Hultzen, who was sidelined last year with all sorts of shoulder issues and is no sure bet to ever make it back. They rolled the dice with Purke and so far seem to be losing, but Purke was himself a 1-1 talent at one point (remember, he had his $4M+ deal with Texas pulled thanks to MLB-stewardship at the time) and was probably worth the risk. I’d like to see Skole reach the majors in some capacity before declaring this draft a full success.

Note: from here onwards, everything is a projection and is based on scouting the stat lines. I’m going to sound negative where others sound positive and vice versa. Hey, its better than writing nothing.

2012: Owner: Lerner. President/GM: Rizzo. Scouting Director Kline. Drafting 16th overall. Total Bonus $ spent: $4,503,500

a. Yes/inc: 1st rounder Lucas Giolito (so far) has shown himself to be at full speed post TJ surgery and is mostly in the top 10-15 of every professional scouting pundit’s list for best prospect in the entirety of the minors. He’s got a #1 starter ceiling, a huge frame and three plus pitches. He’s projecting to be everything you’d hope for from an upper first rounder.
b. No/inc: It is hard to squint at 2nd rounder Tony Renda at this point and project him as a future “MLB regular.” Sure he’s hitting .297 in Potomac, and sure his numbers at the plate have not varied much in his three pro seasons. Unfortunately he’s vastly undersized and he has no power in a time where pro middle infielders are expected to provide serious pop. Maybe he can forge a career like Jamey Carroll or like a Jose Altuve, but the odds are against him. I don’t mean to discount the guy because he’s 5’8″ but we all know there’s a significant bias in the industry towards undersized guys. Heck, a pitcher is considered “short” if he isn’t 6’2″ these days.
c. No/inc: So far the guys picked 3rd-5th are also struggling. 3rd rounder Brett Mooneyham‘s struggles are well documented here. 4th rounder Brandon Miller continues to show great power but has missed much of this season with a hamstring injury (he’s on rehab in the GCL as we speak). Lastly 5th rounder Spencer Keiboom suffered a blown UCL that basically cost him the whole 2013 season. He’s got great numbers in low-A this year but is two years too old for the league. Keiboom’s talents more centered on his defense than his bat, so he may still push forward as a future backup catcher. But until he does, this category falls in the “no” side.
d. Maybe/inc: The leading hope for some MLB success out of our 6th-10th round picks right now resides in one of two middle relievers: 7th round pick Robert Benincasa or 9th round pick Derek Self. You never know; one of these guys could turn into the next Aaron Barrett. 8th round SS Stephen Perez made the all-star team this year in Potomac and could feature as a future utility infielder. The team has already released its 6th round pick Hayden Jennings, and their 10th rounder (local Rockville product Craig Manual) was a college senior catcher who is backing up other catchers in the system for the time being). He may continue to hang around but unless he gets a starting gig he’s going to get replaced by someone newer.
e. Yes/inc: 17th rounder Blake Schwartz has already made it to AA, where he struggled and he now sits back in Potomac (where he was great last year, go figure). 11th rounder Brian Rauh got a spot-start in AA last year but has bounced in and out of the Potomac rotation this year. 16th rounder Ronald Pena is working his way off injury but faces a long road to move up thanks to a lack of swing-and-miss stuff. The team has already released four of its 11th-20th round picks; the remaining out-field players (12th rounder Carlos Lopez and 19th rounder Bryan Lippincott) both seem to face long odds as college senior draftees still residing in the low minors to even make it up to AA at this point. To be fair, Lopez missed most of 2013 with an unknown injury, so we’ll give him a slight pass. Lippincott sits in XST right now.
f. No/inc: 33rd rounder Mike McQuillan has hung around and currently serves as a utility guy/bench player for Potomac. A couple of relievers remain on squads: 29th rounder Leonard Hollins is hurt but is on a full-season squad, and 30th rounder Robert Orlan was with Hagerstown to start the season but is back in Auburn. The rest of the 20th round and up guys features carnage; eight college senior draftees already released to go along with 10 unsigned (mostly high schoolers) picks in the later rounds. One unsigned pick looks interesting; all-american freshman UNC player Skye Bolt may be a big-time 2015 draft pick. But otherwise, I’m predicting that we dont’ get even a AA player out of the last 20 rounds of this draft at this point.

2012: Projected Failure: Frankly, this is looking like it may be a one player draft. At this point, I don’t think you can look at *any* other player in this draft and project even a bench/fringe 25-man roster guy besides Giolito. Now ask yourself: if Giolito fulfills expectations and becomes an “ace,” a top 15-20 arm in the majors while the rest of this draft basically becomes high-A and AA filler, does that change your opinion of the draft success/failure?

2013: Owner: Lerner. President/GM: Rizzo. Scouting Director Kline. Drafting 30th overall. Total Bonus $ spent: $2,678,100

a. n/a: No 2013 first rounder thanks to the supurfluous signing of Rafael Soriano. As noted at the time, the Nats missed out on players like Sean Manaea, Ryan Stanek or Ian Clarkin, all of whom were available at the time of their lost 1st rounder. Manaea in particular has flourished, rising up prospect list charts and sporting a healthy K/9 rate in high-A this year. I’d like to call this in and among itself a failure (given my reservations about paying for saves in general), but have to admit that Soriano has been pretty durn good this year.
b. No/inc: 2nd rounder Jake Johansen thus far has not lived up to advance billing in his first year in full-season ball. He’s averaging just 4.5 innings per outing and sports a 5.00 ERA and less than a K/inning. I can understand the difficult adjustment to pro ball, but I don’t get how his vaunted velocity and size combination aren’t resulting in more swing-and-miss. He’s given no indication that he can avoid what scouts have been saying all along (that he’s destined for the bullpen), he’s way too wild and way too hittable.
c. Yes/inc: the Nats collection of 3rd rounder Drew Ward, 4th rounder Nick Pivetta and now especially 5th rounder Austin Voth are making this management team look very smart. All Voth has done since forcing his promotion to High-A is give up 10 hits and ONE earned run in 33 innings over five starts. That’s just ridiculous. And he’s doing it while maintaining a 36/5 K/BB ratio. There’s zero reason for him to still be in Potomac at this point. I don’t know what Voth’s ceiling is, but its getting pushed.
d. No/inc: Thanks to the new CBA’s rules, most 6th-10th rounders are throw-away/college senior picks these days. So it’ll be awfully hard to depend on one of them turning into a 25-man roster guy. The best bet out of this draft will be having either 6th rounder Cody Gunter or 7th rounder James Yezzo eventually matriculating to the majors. The other guys in this category were 15k bonus college seniors, one of whom (9th rounder Jake Joyce has *already* been released). Do we think either Gunter or Yezzo projects as a major leaguer? Not right now: Gunter’s struggling in short-A for the 2nd year in a row and Yezzo is an undersized 1B showing little power.
e. Maybe/inc: Right now the pickings for the guys taken 11th-20th look pretty slim too. Three were senior signs who have already been released and we failed to sign our 16th round pick Willie Allen (though can’t fault the Nats for that: doing research on him for last year’s draft review showed all sorts of inconsistencies with him, including whether he’s even still playing baseball in college). But 11th rounder John Simms is looking like a great find; he’s already in the AA rotation and holding his own (though you could argue it was out of need, not performance). Among those left, 10th rounder Brandon Middleton and 15th rounder Isaac Ballou are starting and playing well in Hagerstown, 12th rounder Andrew Cooper is strugging in low-A, 13th rounder John Costa has yet to debut for the team thanks to TJ surgery, and 17th rounder Geoffrey Perrott was a senior catcher who got a grand total of 13 at-bats in 2013 and has remained in XST so far thisyear, perhaps to serve as a bullpen catcher for others remaining in Viera and perhaps because he was hurt most of last year and may still be recovering. If Simms continues to rise and we get a couple more longer-lasting prospects out of this crew, we’ll convert this to a success.
f. Maybe/Inc: The Nats picked seven college seniors in the 21st round or above and so far they’re all with Hagerstown. Middle infielders Cody Dent (22nd rounder) and Willie Medina (31st rounder) both hit in the .220s last year, are hitting in the .220s (or worse) this year, and seem like they may not last the season. However the pitchers in this bunch are looking better and better. 28th rounder Joey Webb has a 2.53 ERA, 30th rounder Ryan Ullmann has as 3.10 ERA and got a high-A up-and-back call-up, and 34th rounder Jake Walsh dominated Low-A and earned a call-up to Potomac. Only 29th rounder Michael Sylvestri seems to be in trouble among these senior signs; after struggling in Short-A last year, he gave up a ton of runs in 6 mid-relief outings and is currently in re-assignment purgatory. What of the non senior-signs? 24th round pick Matthew Derosier is struggling in short-A and 23rd round outfielder Garrett Gordon seems like he’s a bench player in Auburn. But a revelation may be 25th round prep draft pick Travis Ott. He holds a 2.10 ERA through 6 starts in Auburn despite being quite young for the league. So, the trend seems good that we’ll get value out of the bottom part of this draft.

2013: Projected Failure: Sorry to say; no first rounder, a middle reliever out of your 2nd rounder, perhaps a 5th starter out of the 3-5 rounds, and some org filler from the bottom of the draft? How many players from this draft do you realistically project to make the majors?

2014: Owner: Lerner. President/GM: Rizzo. Scouting Director Kline. Drafting 18th overall. Total Bonus $ spent: $4,149,900

a. Maybe/inc: 1st rounder Erick Fedde may project as a MLB rotation guy, but he’s not projecting as an ace level arm. So if he comes back from surgery 100%, if he keeps moving up the chain, if he makes the majors and if he has an impact we’ll give this a yes. Lots of ifs.
b. n/a: we failed to sign our 2nd rounder Andrew Suarez.
c. Maybe/inc: The hopes here fall on 3rd rounder Jakson Reetz and 4th rounder Robbie Dickey, since our 5th rounder was a senior lefty out of non-baseball powerhouse Duke. How do we dream on Reetz and Dickey? Maybe Reetz turns into our next Derek Norris while Dickey turns into the next Austin Voth. Lets hope so, because both so far have had rather inauspicious starts in the GCL (Reetz batting .220 and Dickey posting an ERA in the 12s). To be fair Reetz is a kid and Dickey isn’t much older, so we have a long way to go before passing true judgement.
d. No/inc: We failed to sign the 8th round pick Austin Byler (and from reading the tea leaves, it didn’t seem like we were ever even close). Our 7th, 8th and 10th round picks were low-bonus college seniors with little hope of advancing. So this category falls squarely on the shoulders of 6th rounder Austin Williams, who looks ok so far in Short-A.
e. Far too Early: most of these guys who did sign are 15 games into short seasons.
f. Far too Early: most of these guys who did sign are 15 games into short seasons.

2014: Not promising: An injured first rounder, no 2nd rounder, really just a handful of non senior-signs elsewhere in the draft. As I opined in the previous post discussion, I just don’t like the looks of this class.

So. 5200 words later, I think I actually like my guidelines. I think though that the new CBA forces teams into making a bunch of “throw-away” picks in the 6th-10th rounds, so my criteria needs to be adjusted downward for that category in the last few years. Otherwise I think it holds.

What say you?

Editor’s Post-posting thoughts. Based on the analysis above, the franchise has 5 successes and 5 failures (or projected failures) in ten drafts. After up and down drafts the first four years, we had three straight successes in 2009-2011, but now I feel like we’ve had three successive failures from 2012 onwards. Here’s a sobering thought about those successes and failures: lets talk about bonus money spent.

In the 5 drafts I call successes, the team spent (chronologically): $3,990,500, $7,619,300, $18,806,000, $11,413,200 and $11,325,000 in bonus money.
In the 5 drafts i’m calling failures/projected failures: $5,222,000, $4,766,500, $4,503,500, $2,678,100, $4,149,900

See a pattern? With the exception of the unbelievable 2005 draft, the Nats have had successes when spending big money and failures when they don’t. Maybe its just that simple.

I think, to be fair, it is also worth nothing the three distinct “eras” of Nats draft philosophy:

Era 1: 2005-2008: MLB hamstrung budgets and Lerner penny pinching era. 2 successes, 2 failures.
Era 2: 2009-2011: Lerner’s realize the Tampa Bay way: spending through the draft is the best way to acquire talent. 3 successes
Era 3: 2012-present: the new CBA spells out draconian draft bonus policies. 3 failures.

Era 1 may be just the way it used to go; sometimes you’d get wins in the draft, other times you’d strike out. Era 2 was the glory years of Nats drafting, though the cynic may point out that picking three consensus 1-1 talents and spending 8 figures in bonus money wasn’t that hard. Era 3 is more troubling: why has this management team not done better in the CBA/limited bonus era?

Written by Todd Boss

July 23rd, 2014 at 10:52 am

Posted in Draft

Tagged with aaron barrett, aaron crow, adam carr, adam laroche, adrian nieto, aj cole, aj morris, alex meyer, andrew cooper, andrew suarez, anthony rendon, austin byler, austin voth, austin williams, bill rhinehart, blake monar, blake schwartz, bommer whiting, brad meyers, brad peacock, brandon middleton, brandon miller, brett logan, brett mooneyham, brian dupra, brian goodwin, brian rauh, bryan harper, bryan lippincott, bryce harper, caleb ramsey, cameron selik, carlos lopez, chris marrero, christopher manno, cody dent, cody gunter, cole kimball, colin bates, colten willems, corey vanallen, craig manual, craig stammen, dana brown, danny espinosa, danny hultzen, danny rosenbaum, david freitas, deion williams, derek norris, derek self, destin hood, doug fister, drew storen, drew ward, erick fedde, erik arneson, evan bronson, garrett gordon, geoffrey perrott, gio gonzalez, hassan pena, hayden jennings, ian clarkin, isaac ballou, jack mcgeary, jake johansen, jake joyce, jake smolinski, jake walsh, jakson reetz, james yezzo, jamey carroll, jason martinson, jeff kobernus, jeff mandel, jim bowden, joey webb, john costa, john lannan, john simms, jonny gomes, jordan zimmermann, jose altuve, josh smoker, jp ramirez, justin maxwell, juston bloxom, kris kline, kurt suzuki, kyle gunderson, kylin turnbull, leonard hollins, logan kensing, lucas giolito, marco estrada, marcus strohman, matt skole, matt swynenberg, matthew derosier, matthew grace, matthew purke, michael burgess, michael sylvestri, michael taylor, mike mcquillan, mike rizzo, mitchell clegg, nathan karns, neil holland, nick lee, nick pivetta, patrick lehman, patrick mccoy, paul demny, rafael soriano, randolph oduber, richie mirowski, rick hague, rob wort, robbie dickey, robbie ray, robert benincasa, robert orlan, ronald pena, ross detwiler, ryan butcher, ryan stanek, ryan ullmann, ryan zimmerman, sammy solis, sean black, sean manaea, sean nicol, shane mccatty, skye bolt, spencer kieboom, stan kasten, stephen englund, stephen perez, stephen strasburg, steve lombardozzi, steven souza, taylor hill, taylor jordan, ted lerner, tim pahuta, tom gorzelanny, tommy milone, tony renda, travis ott, trevor holder, tyler moore, vinny castilla, willie allen, willie medina, zech zinicola

Season Statistical Review of all Nats 2012 draft picks

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Lucas Giolito still leads the line of the Nats 2012 draft class. Photo unk via federalbaseball.com

I recently did a John Sickels style review of all our 2013 draft picks. And I thought it’d be fun to do the same for our 2012 draft class one year in (see here for the 2012 version of the post). Lets check in to see how these guys are doing in their 2nd pro seasons.

As always; the Big Board and the Draft Tracker are the two best Nats prospect resources out there. Thanks SpringfieldFan for doing all that you do. Stats are pulled from milb.com and fangraphs.com and are current as of the end of the regular minor league seasons.

Finally, at the end of each writeup i’ll put in a color coded trending line (my own opinion) for the player: Green for Trending Up, Blue for Trending steady, red for Trending Down.

Round 1: (#16 overall) Lucas Giolito HS RH Starting pitcher: 2-1, 1.94 ERA with 39/14 k/bb in 36 2/3 innings, 28 hits mostly in the GCL. All Nats prospect fans should know of Giolito’s status these days; he has come back from surgery, pitched effectively in the rookie league and was lights out in 3 starts in short-A (one run conceded in 14 innings). Per comments and scouting reports his velocity is back, he seems healthy, and he could be just a season away from being breathlessly talked about as one of the best prospects in the game. Should feature in full-season ball (likely starting in low-A with an eye for finishing in high-A) in 2014. Trending Up.

Round 2: (80) Tony Renda, Coll Jr 2B: .294/.380/.405 with 3 homers, 68 walks, 65 Ks in 521 ABs at Hagerstown. Also was 30 for 36 on the basepaths. Those are solid full season numbers. I like that Renda makes a lot of contact; a K rate of just 12% on the year isn’t too bad. Renda was a young college draftee (he turned 22 in January of this year), so he isn’t necessarily “too old” for Hagerstown. He will continue to move up the food chain in 2014. Trending Up.

Round 3: (111) Brett Mooneyham, Coll Jr LH starting pitcher: 10-6, 3.19 ERA with 85/54 k/bb in 104 1/3 innings, 67 hits mostly for Hagerstown. I was worried when Mooneyham couldn’t break the high-A roster, given his age and draft day pedigree. He started out strong, endured a D/L stint, then dominated towards the end of the season, forcing a promotion. In high-A? Not so great; he had three awful starts to close out the season. Mooneyham continues to “look” like a better pitcher than his numbers; he’s too wild, he doesn’t miss as many bats as you like, but he gets the job done (well, in low-A anyway). Clearly he’s going to be in the Potomac Rotation for 2014; lets see how he does. But i’m beginning to question his true “ceiling” in this organization; is he going to top out like a Danny Rosenbaum, a mediocre AAA starter? Trending Steady.

Round 4: (144) Brandon Miller Coll Sr Corner OF: .255/.317/.457 with 20 homers, 41 walks, 164 strikeouts in 505 at bats splite between Hagerstown and Potomac. His statline seemed to feature as a power hitting corner outfielder in Hagerstown: 18 homers in 103 games, a homer every 22 at-bats or so. But then in Potomac he’s hit .300 with a .350 OBP and just two homers in 110 at-bats. It could be a case of being slightly old for low-A: he turns 24 in a month’s time. Either way, he really needs to cut down on the K’s; 164/505 equates with nearly a 33% strike-out rate. That’s going to catch up to him unless he starts hitting 40 homers instead of 20. Otherwise, he’s done nothing to jeopardize his continued rise up the system for 2014. Trending Steady.

Round 5: (174) Spencer Kieboom, Coll Jr C: 6 at-bats in 4 games for the GCL Nats in late August; a lost season for Kieboom due to Tommy John surgery undergone in early 2013. Since he’s not a pitcher, he returned to the field in less than a year’s time. But he’s lost a year of development and now will compete with 2012 draftee catchers such as Geoff Parrott and rising DSL grads like Pedro Severino for playing time in the full-season A-ball teams in 2014. Trending Down.

Round 6: (204) Hayden Jennings, HS OF/CF: .248/.313/.343 with 0 homers, 11 walks, 48 Ks in 137 at-bats while repeating the GCL in 2013. Jennings struggled in his rookie league pro debut in 2012 and repeated the level, improving his OPS nearly 200 points. He has improve upon a horrible strikeout rate but still is striking out 35% of the time. That’s really not a good sign for the leadoff/CF guy he seems to project as right now; he needs to show a much higher OBP, put more balls in play, and do more on the basepaths (12 SBs in 44 games). I think he gets moved up for 2014, but may really struggle in full-season ball. Trending down.

Round 7: (234) Robert Benincasa, Coll Jr. RH relief pitcher: 0-5 with 27 saves, 3.00 ERA with 64/14 K/BB in 51 IP, 45 hits split between Hagerstown and Potomac. Benincasa has settled into a closer role, getting 10 saves for Hagerstown to open the season before earning a promotion to Potomac about halfway through the season and continuing as their closer. His K/BB rate stayed high even with the promotion, though his ERA and hits/9 crept up a bit. He seems set to move up to Harrisburg and could compete with Richie Mirowski for the AA closer role in 2014. Trending up.

Round 8: (264) Stephen Perez, Coll Jr. SS: .248/.303/.326 with 4 homers, 11 walks, 40 Ks in 107 at-bats in low-A Hagerstown. Wow; 107 strikeouts in 432 at-bats; 25%. You just can’t have a 25% strikeout rate for a weak hitting, no power middle infielder. These numbers were in line with his short-season numbers too. He’s a college junior draftee from a very good baseball school (U of Miami) in low-A who looks like a draft bust right now. Trending down.

Round 9: (294) Derek Self, Coll Sr. RH relief pitcher: 4-5 with 8 saves, 4.66 ERA with 49/16 K/BB in 56 IP, 64 hits split between Hagerstown and Potomac. Self started in Potomac, had a 6.29 ERA in 23 apperances and was demoted mid-season to Hagerstown. In low-A he had more respectable numbers but nothing eye-popping. He was a low-bonus college senior draftee who’s struggling to make a mark in a league where he’s one of the older guys out there. I could see him being a post-2014 spring training cut. Trending down.

Round 10: (324) Craig Manuel, Coll Sr C: .282/.364/.347 with 1 homer, 24 walks, 20 Ks in 170 at-bats mostly in low-A Hagerstown. He missed a month mid-season, then was mostly the backup to Adrian Nieto in Hagerstown. Unfortunately, a low-bonus college senior draftee who’s backing up guys in low-A probably isn’t long for the organization. He may be a victim of the catcher numbers game at some point (though, that being said, the team only drafted one catcher in 2013; maybe he sticks around for a while). Trending down.

Round 11: (354) Brian Rauh, Coll Jr RH starter/reliever: 7-4, 4.50 ERA with 68/34 K/BB in 106 IP, 107 hits split between Hagerstown and Potomac. An odd season for Rauh; he struggled in middle relief in low-A (posting a 5.21 ERA), then was promoted to Potomac, where he was installed as a starter. He had 12 mostly mediocre starts (4.22 ERA) before being moved to the bullpen the last week of the season when Brett Mooneyham was promoted up. Is he a starter? Is he a reliever? More time in the system is apparently needed; i’m guessing he begins in the bullpen in high-A next year. Trending Steady.

Round 12: (384) Carlos Lopez, Coll Sr 1B: .296/.441/.407 with 0 homers, 7 walks, 7 Ks in 27 at-bats in low-A Hagerstown. Lopez went on the 7-day DL in mid-April after just 9 games and never came off. I cannot find word of his injury. But with newly drafted James Yezzo in the mix as a 1B-only draftee, Lopez has his work cut out for himself to retain his standing in the organization. Especially considering that he was a College senior sign who is positionally limited and hasn’t shown much in the way of power at the professional level. Trending down.

Round 13: (414) Elliott Waterman, Coll Jr LH reliever: 2-0, 2.96 ERA with 13/12 K/BB in 24 1/3 IP split between the two short season teams. Waterman performed poorly in Short-A last year, did not make a full-season team out of camp, then got hammered again in his early outings for Auburn this year before getting demoted to rookie ball. He pitched better in the GCL, eventually earning a call-back to Auburn but has not appeared since 8/31/13. He’s still relatively young (does not turn 23 until November) and he’s a big tall lefty, but he’s putting too many guys on base and not getting enough swing and miss stuff to stick as a situational arm. He may get one more spring training but it wouldn’t surprise me to see him cut loose if he doesn’t make a full-season team in 2014. Trending down.

Round 14: (444) Jordan Poole, Juco-2 corner OF: .222/.278/.403 with 3 homers, 6 walks, 40 Ks in 72 at-bats split between the two short season teams. I’ll repeat this metric: 40 Ks in 72 at-bats. He struggled in Auburn and then got hurt in late July, missing 3 weeks. He finished the season in Rookie ball, probably a combination rehab assignment/demotion. He does feature some pop; his isolated slugging of .441 in Auburn shows some promise. But that’s a lot of strikeouts. He’s still very young (he turned 22 just this week) so he will continue in the system. Trending down.

Round 15: (474) Brandon Smith, OF: Didn’t sign. Hit .318/.370/.406 as a freshman corner outfielder at Division II Grand Canyon University.

Round 16: (504) Ronald Pena, Juco-2 RH starter/reliever: 4-3, 3.48 ERA with 55/34 K/BB in 88 IP for Hagerstown. Pena started the season in the Hagerstown rotation, where he stayed mostly until the end of May. He had a 4.70 ERA as a starter on the season; not good enough given the arms matriculating upwards. From there he worked the bullpen, where in the same number of innings his Ks were up, his walks down and his hits allowed down. It seems to me he’s bullpen-bound from here. Trending Steady.

Round 17: (534) Blake Schwartz, Coll Sr RH Starting pitcher: 13-4, 2.51 ERA with 101/28 in 147 IP for Hagerstown and Potomac. Schwartz started the year in the Hagerstown rotation and ended it in Potomac, getting the ball for their 2nd playoff game. After striking out 21 guys in his first 14 low-A innings, he was quickly promoted up and threw 132 additional innings in Potomac. His ERA was low upon promotion, he fared equally well against lefties and righties. I’d like to see more K’s, but it is hard to argue with the results. He had to be in the “player of the year” discussions for the organization. So far looking like a great find this late in the draft from a small school. Trending up.

Round 18: (564) David Fischer, Coll Sr RH reliever: 5-0, 4.06 era with 81/52 K/BB in 58 IP for Hagerstown and Potomac. He got a quick bump up from Hagerstown after just 9 apperances and spent the bulk of the season in Potomac’s bullpen providing longer relief stints every few days. He hit the D/L in mid August and never came back off of it. This beanpole (6’5″ 175lbs) clearly has some strikeout type stuff (53 Ks in his 44 high-A innings) but he is also wild as hell (44 walks in 44 innings to go with 8 wild pitches and 5 HBPs in high-A). It sounds like someone needs to coach Nuke LaLoosh up here. Trending Steady.

Round 19: (594) Bryan Lippincott, Coll Sr 1B: .273/.346/.434 with 7 homers, 25 walks, 39 Ks in 198 at-bats split between Auburn and Hagerstown. A small-college senior signee, Lippincott spent all of 2012 in the GCL (where he clearly was “old for the level.”). In 2013, he waited for short-season to start, then slugged .464 in 44 games for Auburn before getting the call-up to Hagerstown to play for the team during the playoffs. He struggled in 10 playoff games (understandible; they’re the best teams in the league) but otherwise had a nice season. He’s seemingly set to compete for perhaps the 1B or DH in High-A for 2014. Trending Steady.

Round 20: (624) James Brooks, Coll SR SS/3B: Released May 2013; he was a senior sign who played last season mostly in the GCL, save for a 2 week stretch where he went 1-32 in Short-A. Apparently he didn’t make a team out of spring training and was released just before Short seasons started.

Round 21: (654) Austin Chubb, Coll Sr C: .200/.241/.238 with 0 homers, 2 walks, 12 Ks in 105 at-bats for Auburn. Chubb was a part-time catcher, splitting time with others in Auburn, and followed up his generally poor 2012 GCL numbers with even worse numbers in 2013. He had just two walks in 100+ plate appearances? With no power to show for it? Chubb may not be long for the organization, despite the positional scarcity. Trending Down.

Round 22: (684) Will Hudgins, Coll Sr RH reliever: 3-2, 4.41 ERA with 28/21 K/BB in 32 2/3 innings, 25 hits split between low- and short-A. Suddenly retired July 12th on Twitter.

Round 23: (714) Casey Selsor, Coll Sr LH Starter/Reliever: 0-6, 4.29 ERA with 30/14 in 42 1/3 innings, 56 hits for Auburn. Selsor was drafted with 2-way capabilities but has only pitched for the Nats. He started the season in Auburn’s rotation, got demoted to the bullpen after 6 starts, but eventually made his way back into the rotation in some sense by the time the season was over. He gave up a ton of baserunners, but his babip was high. Despite a 4.29 ERA his FIP for the year was just 3.15. So he pitched better than his stats look. Trending Steady.

Round 24: (744) Kevin Dicharry, Coll SR RH pitcher: 0-2, 14.54 ERA with 4/2 K/BB in 4 1/3 innings, 8 hits for Auburn. Dicharry pitched very poorly in his first three Auburn appearances and then was released 7/1/13. Without any knowledge of how well he recovered from the arm issues he had in college, this seems like an incredibly quick release considering how well he pitched (even if he was overaged) last year in the GCL.

Round 25: (774) Freddy Avis, RHP: didn’t sign. Attending Stanford, where in 2013 he appeared in exactly one game and pitched 2 innings before suffering a season-ending injury. Google research is spotty, but it seems like he aggravated the same knee which he had ACL surgery on in 2012 and which ended his HS career prematurely.

Round 26: (804) Skye Bolt, RHP: didn’t sign. Attending UNC, where in 2013 he hit .349/.449/.550 as a freshman starter for one of the best teams in the nation. That’s a pretty darn impressive slash line for a freshman in the ACC. Those are 1st round pick numbers.

Round 27: (834) Cody Poteet, RHP: didn’t sign. Attending UCLA, where in 2013 as a mid-week starter/weekend reliever he was 4-6, 4.84 ERA with 56/31 K/BB in 70+ innings for the CWS champions. We don’t have advanced stats, but his BAA of .227 seems to indicate his ERA was incredibly unlucky. He should be a weekend starter for UCLA next season.

Round 28: (864) Hunter Bailey, Coll Sr SS/2B: .182/.265/.205 with 0 homers, 4 walks, 11 Ks in 44 low-A at bats earlier this season. Bailey was released May 2013. The jump from GCL to full-season ball proved too much for Bailey and he was cut loose as an expendible backup middle-infielder in a system full of them rising quickly up the ranks.

Round 29: (894) Leonard Hollins, Juco RH reliever: 1-4, 2.91 ERA with 36/16 in 46 1/3 innings, 48 hits mostly for Auburn. The submariner made a successful jump to short-A out of the GCL, and still has not given up a professional home-run. All we have to do now is figure out if he’s “Leonard” or if he’s “L.J.” since milb.com and Fangraphs differ in their names for him. Trending Up.

Round 30: (924) Robert Orlan Coll Jr LH Starter: 1-5, 3.65 ERA with 47/22 K/BB in 56 2/3 innings, 54 hits for Auburn. Orlan was the leading innings-eater for Auburn in 2013 after missing the whole 2012 season following TJ surgery. Orlan kept the ball down, pitched better than his ERA shows (3.38 fip) and shows no reason not to continue up the chain and compete for rotation jobs in full season ball next year. As I said last year, he could be a great sleeper pick. Trending Up.

Round 31: (954) Michael Boyden Coll Sr RH reliever: 0-0, 4.61 ERA with 15/14 K/BB in 13 2/3 innings, 17 hits for GCL. 14 walks and 17 hits equates with a balloned 2.27 whip for this 23-year old in the rookie league (which means he’s likely throwing against guys 4-5 years younger than he is). It is hard to understand why he was back in the GCL after having shown he could handle Short-A last year. Either way, his control issues from last year caught up with him in 2013 and I don’t think he’ll be long for the organization. Trending Down.

Round 32: (984) Michael Mudron, Coll Sr LH reliever: 1-3, 6.82 ERA with 32/15 K/BB in 30 1/3 innings, 43 hits. Great K/9 rates for a matchup lefty (reminder: milb.com lists him as a RHP when he’s actually a lefty). His game-logs show what a weird season he had: of the 23 earned runs he gave up in his 30 innings, 20 of them came in four awful outings, highlighted by his 8/24/13 outing: he gave up 5 hits and 5 walks in an inning and a third, resulting in 6 earned runs. These factors contributed to his FIP being just 2.77, a huge delta from his ugly ERA. I’d imagine this stat line makes it hard for higher-ups to evaluate him. Nonetheless, he should feature in a full-season bullpen in 2014. Trending Steady.

Round 33: (1014) Mike McQuillan, Coll Sr 2B/3B: .277/.372/.367 with 2 homers, 40 walks, 66 K’s in 264 low-A at-bats (skipping 5 rehab games he did in the GCL). As with last year, good average and great OBP, but little to no pop. He missed 2 full months of the season with an injury that I cannot easily google. Otherwise he continues to profile as an undersized, speedy 2nd baseman with good OBP capabilities. He’ll move up to Potomac in 2014. Trending Steady.

Round 34: Jake Jeffries, 2B: didn’t sign. Attending Cal State Fullerton, where in 2013 he hit .260/.327/.360 as a starting middle infielder.

Round 35: Corey Bafidis, LHP: didn’t sign but Washington picked him in 2013. From the 2013 version of this post: Coll Sr LH relief pitcher. 2-0, 2.73 ERA with 22/13 K/BB in 26 1/3 relief innings mostly in Auburn, 18 hits. He got pushed to low-A too early, settled into short-A where he probably belonged to begin with, and pitched relatively well for 20 innings. Too many walks for a relief pitcher, though, he’ll have to work on that. He mostly worked in 2 inning stints and never got any looks at starting. Trending steady.

Round 36: Max Ungar, C: didn’t sign. Attending Division III Denison, where he does not appear to be playing baseball at all. Seems to have quit the sport. Was th is a “favor draft pick” to give someone’s friend’s kid some notariety?

Round 37: Tyler Watson, LHP: didn’t sign. Threw just 3 2/3 innings over 6 games for Kansas U as a freshman.

Round 38: Jarred Messer, RHP: didn’t sign. Finished 6-4 with a 2.70 ERA his senior year at Malone University but then went undrafted, and as far as I can tell did not get picked up by either a MLB org or an independent league team. He seems to be playing in the Ohio Tuscarawas County Class A league, an Adult baseball amateur league.

Round 39: Mitchell Williams, C: didn’t sign. Attended the Marion Military Institute in Alabama, for which I cannot find any current stats.

Round 40: Ricky Gutierrez, CF: didn’t sign. Presumably playing football for U-Conn, as per the Draft Tracker. I could not find any individual football stats for him in rudimentary googling.

Summary: our top end guys are doing well and we may have some finds in the later rounds. On the downside, most of the rest of the first round picks are struggling. Such is the nature of the new draft classes; picks 7-10 are more like 25th rounders while picks 11-15 are more like 6th-10.

Written by Todd Boss

September 17th, 2013 at 8:09 am

Season Statistical Review of all Nats 2013 draft picks

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Jake Johansen led the Nats 2013 draft. Photo via DBU website

Last year, minorleagueball.com’s John Sickels started a quick-hit review of every 2012 draft pick with snap judgements and quick stats. I thought it was a great project, a nice little way to see how the draft picks were faring. He petered out around the 17th round, and I took up his cause for just the Nationals picks and went through all 40 rounds at this link here. Apparently 2012’s project was too much work for Sickels; he doesn’t seem to be doing it this year. So I picked up the torch and did a Sickels-style analysis for all 40 of the Nats 2013 draft picks below.

(Note: stats are pulled from milb.com and/or fangraphs.com; put the player name into the search bar to get his seasonal stats). MILB has nice consolidated seasonal stats while fangraphs has better advanced stats. They do not include any playoff stats for those still playing after 9/2/13).

Finally, at the end of each writeup i’ll put in a color coded trending line for the player: Green for Trending Up, Blue for Trending steady, red for Trending Down. This is just my knee-jerk opinion of the prospect status of the player system-wide. And yes I realize this is their first pro ball season, short-sample sizes, etc etc.

Without further ado:

Round 1: forfeited w/ Rafael Soriano signing, which as I noted in this June 2013 post cost the Nats a shot at one of several highly regarded pitchers drafted just behind our vacated spot.

Round 2: Jake Johansen, Coll Sr. RH Starting Pitcher. 1-3, 1.92 ERA with 51/23 K/BB in 51 2/3 innings between Auburn and Hagerstown, 34 hits. After signing quickly for slot (very quickly, like in 24 hours or so), Johansen joined short-A Auburn and was essentially unhittable through 10 starts. He was promoted up to low-A, got hit around in two starts and finishes the season with a 1.92 ERA, and a sub 1.00 WHIP. Johansen outperformed his poor college numbers somewhat, still walks too many batters, and still flashes a dominant fastball. Scouts continue to believe he’ll end up in the bullpen, but until that situation presents itself Johansen will stay as a starter. He seems like he’s bound for the opening day start in Hagerstown in 2014. Trending Up.

Round 3: Drew Ward, HS 3B. .292/.402/.387 with one homer, 25 walks, 44 strikeouts in 168 at-bats for the GCL Nats in the rookie league. A good average and a great OBP, but where’s the power? Ward was reported to have a ton of power coming up but his slugging was lower than his OBP. He produced at a 142 wRC+ for the season, which is great, but I think he needs to show more power going forward. That won’t be easy in his next stop; the stadium in Hagerstown is old and cavernous with huge walls; you earn every homer up there. Trending Up.

Round 4: Nick Pivetta, Juco RH Starting Pitcher. 1-1, 3.41 ERA with 18/12 K/BB in 29 innings between GCL and Short-A, 28 hits. Pivetta started 8 games but averaged less than 4 innings a start. For such a big guy (6’5″ 220) with such a reported fastball (upper 90s in short spurts) I would have hoped for more K’s (18 in 29 innings). Outlook; bound for Hagerstown but seems like someone who may convert to short relief soon where he can maintain higher velocity in shorter outings. Trending Steady.

Round 5: Austin Voth, Coll Jr RH Starting Pitcher: 3-0, 1.75 ERA with 55/6 K/BB in46 1/3 innings between three levels, 33 hits. You read that correctly; 55 to 6 strike out to walk ratio for this U of Washington product. He pushed his way through two promotions on the season, ending up in the Hagerstown rotation. Another interesting stat: Zero home-runs in his 55 innings on the year. And these stats were done with pretty normal looking BABIPs; his FIP values were lower than his ERAs in short- and low-A. He seems like an exciting draft find and should be in the Hagerstown rotation in 2014. Trending Up.

Round 6: Cody Gunter, Juco 3B. .229/.294/.313 with 3 homers, 20 walks, 62 strikeouts in 214 at-bats for Auburn. 62 punchouts out of 214 at-bats; that’s more than 25%. With so many Ks and so little power (.084 ISO), I’d be concerned about Gunter’s future at the corner. Its possible he was just a bit young for Auburn as a 1st-year JuCo grad. Trending down.

Round 7: Jimmy Yezzo, Coll Jr 1B. .267/.282/.342 with 2 homers, 5 walks, 37 strikeouts in 243 at-bats for Auburn. Five walks in 243 at-bats?? That shows a pretty significant plate discipline issue. Yezzo came to the Nats with such a good hitting reputation in a decent baseball conference (the CAA); what has happened? Drafted as a first baseman, Yezzo needs to show some serious power improvement to continue at a spot which normally is where lesser defenders “end up” to keep their bat in the lineup. Trending down.

Round 8: David Napoli, Coll Sr LH relief pitcher. 1-0, 1.14 ERA with 28/10 K/BB in23 relief innings in Auburn, 16 hits. He had a very wild reputation coming out of college, but seems to have toned it down at Auburn to become an excellent relief pitcher. I’m a little disappointed to see him already get converted to relief, but his size and stuff seems to point towards situational lefty anyway. I could see him in Potomac in 2014 quickly turning into the next Ian Krol. Trending up.

Round 9: Jake Joyce, Coll Sr RH relief pitcher. 1-3, 5.22 ERA with 25/12 K/BB in 29 relief innings in Auburn, 37 hits. Joyce was unlucky (.381 babip) and his FIP reflects that (3.03 versus 5.22 era), but he still gave up a ton of base-runners (1.67 whip) and a ton of air-outs (0.62 GO/AO on the year). Given the fact that Joyce was a senior sign for very little money, he could seem rather expendible if he doesn’t start strong in 2014. Trending down.

Round 10: Brennan Middleton, Coll Sr SS/2B. Did not play an inning in 2013; I cannot find any details of the injury. There are some reports that he injured his ankle towards the end of his senior season at Tulane; perhaps that injury carried over into the summer. He signed for a pittance and was not highly regarded; he could struggle to make a team out of spring. Trending down.

A quick note before continuing: you can see the effect very clearly of the new MLB draft rules by looking at the Nats draft picks here; our 8th,9th and 10th round guys signed for a combined $40,000 so the team could over-pay earlier in the draft. We got mostly cheap guys, senior signs with zero leverage as we got closer to the 10th round and the production shows. Then, starting at round 11 (where the slot per pick is a flat $100,000 and the signing bonus cap re-sets) we start to see more significant prospects get signed and coaxed out of remaining college eligibility. Its almost as if we should treat the 8th-10th rounders as closer to 30th round picks, all things considered.

Round 11: John Simms, Coll jr RH relief pitcher. 0-4, 5.70 ERA with 34/7 K/BB in 30 relief innings mostly in Auburn, 41 hits. His walks were low but hits were high. His ERA looks ugly but look beyond the top layer and you discover that Simms actually didn’t pitch that badly this year. A ridiculously high BABIP of .438 contributed to his inflated short-A ERA; his FIP was just 2.38. Combine that with his 5/1 K/BB ratio and he has the makings of at least a good reliever in the system. Look for him in Hagerstown or Potomac’s bullpen, where shorter stints should allow him to maintain velocity. Trending steady.

Round 12: Andrew Cooper, Juco RH relief pitcher. 2-1, 3.86 ERA with 16/7 K/BB in 25 2/3 relief innings mostly in Auburn, 29 hits. Drafted as a project, and so far he’s pitched like a project. His numbers aren’t bad or great in any direction. I’d suspect the team knew he needed some complex time so I could see him staying in Viera until next season’s short-A starts up and repeating the level. Trending steady.

Round 13: John Costa, Juco RH relief pitcher. Did not pitch an inning in 2013; he had Tommy John surgery in March and won’t be healthy until mid 2014. Likely stays in the complex league until short-season starts, then heads to the rookie league. Trending down.

Round 14: David Masters, Juco SS. .178/.246/.237 with 0 homers, 9 walks, 33 strikeouts in 152 at-bats for Auburn. Masters showed little power, little hit tool in general. He had a wRC+ of just 51 and slugged lower than his OBP. He’s apparently a genius in the field though. But, you’ve got to hit to advance. If he’s the defensive whiz that the scouting reports say, then he may get another shot in 2014. Note; as others have noted, Masters is a 2nd cousin to Mad Men star John Hamm. I hope this wasn’t the reason we drafted him :-). Trending down.

Round 15: Isaac Ballou, Coll Sr OF/CF. .273/.381/.366 with 2 homers, 32 walks, 37 strikeouts in 238 at-bats mostly for Auburn. Ballou was Auburn’s leading hitter by average and earned a promotion up to Hagerstown, where a 3/27 start dented his seasonal numbers. No reason not to see him in low-A again starting in 2014. Trending up.

Round 16: Willie Allen, Juco Corner OF from Oklahoma/Newtown, MA. Did not sign; I cannot find any reason; there’s a link to his hometown paper that seemed to indicate that he was ready to sign and report. Perhaps something came up in his medicals. Allen also does not appear to have transferred to a 4-year school. Interesting question; how did a kid from Boston end up in an Oklahoma junior college program?

Round 17: Geoff Perrott, Coll Sr C. .308/.308/.308 in 12 at-bats for Hagerstown; Perrott was hurt most of the year and is providing late-season cover for the Suns’ playoff push. A lost season for Perrott; hopefully he gets a chance to prove himself next season. Trending down.

Round 18: Cory Bafidis, Coll Sr LH relief pitcher. 2-0, 2.73 ERA with 22/13 K/BB in 26 1/3 relief innings mostly in Auburn, 18 hits. He got pushed to low-A too early, settled into short-A where he probably belonged to begin with, and pitched relatively well for 20 innings. Too many walks for a relief pitcher, though, he’ll have to work on that. He mostly worked in 2 inning stints and never got any looks at starting. Trending steady.

Round 19: Niko Spezial, Coll Sr LH relief pitcher. 1-0, 3.32 ERA with 21/8 K/BB in 19 relief innings mostly in the GCL, 16 hits. Spezial started the season with Auburn but got the quick demotion after just 3 1/3 relatively non-descript innings. A college senior draftee, he did not belong in the rookie league. Nonetheless he pitched effectively for the record-setting GCL Nats. Spezial needs to show how he fares against someone his own age, which hopefully he’ll get a chance to do in 2014. Trending steady.

Round 20: Brenton Allen, Coll Jr Corner OF. .186/.319/.271 with 1 homer, 15 walks, 31 strikeouts in 113 at-bats mostly for Auburn. A disappointing pro debut for Allen, a 9th rounder out of HS who chose UCLA at the time. Which makes his signing all the more curious; if he was a 9th rounder at one point, why sign for 20th round money? Why not go back for your senior season to try to build draft value? Nonetheless, he seems like he’ll compete for a full season OF job in 2014 but will have to show a better hit tool. Trending down.

Round 21: Justin Thomas, Coll Sr LH relief pitcher. 1-0, 3.13 ERA with 28/3 K/BB in 23 IP split between FOUR levels. Thomas was well traveled this summer; he started in the GCL, got promoted to Auburn, then again to Potomac before settling back in Hagerstown for the bulk of the 2nd half. All he did in Hagerstown was post a 21/1 K/BB ratio in 15 2/3 innings. His ERA was a bit inflated versus his low-A FIP (2.56) and he remains the sole member of his draft class to broach high-A on the year (even if it was just for a game or two). He’s clearly a leading situational lefty candidate with his control and should feature for Potomac in 2014. Trending up.

Round 22: Cody Dent, Coll Sr SS. .222/.310/.242 with 0 homers, 19 walks, 47 strikeouts in 153 ABs for Auburn. A light hitting senior sign middle infielder who strikes out one out of every three times isn’t going to go far in this game unless he fields like Ozzie Smith. What’s interesting is this: Dent is actually hitting BETTER than he did at Florida this year. A blogger on fangraphs dug into the numbers and found that Dent had an amazingly low babip his senior year in college. Trending down.

Round 23: Garrett Gordon, Juco Corner OF. .257/.356/.317 with 0 homers, 12 walks, 27 strikeouts in 101 ABs for the GCL Nats. We’d hope for some more power here for the undersized Gordon; he’s listed as an outfielder but he caught in high school. Perhaps he’s considering going back to the position. Trending down.

Round 24: Matt Derosier, Juco RH relief pitcher. 2-1, 2.43 ERA with 20/5 K/BB in 19 relief innings mostly in the GCL, 24 hits. Derosier may have been a Juco guy but he’s young; he turned 19 in July of this year. After a brief stint to start the season in Auburn he pitched in middle relief for the GCL Nats, getting at least 4 long enough stints to earn a “grade” in my monthly starter grades. He posted good, solid numbers, nothing flashy, nothing bad. A 4/1 K/BB ratio is great. He’ll move up next year, looking to stick as a younger member of the bullpen in low-A. One interesting point related to Derosier: despite his young age, he’ll achieve rule-5 eligibility as if he was a college draftee, so he could run out his eligibility when he’s in the very low-minors. Trending up.

Round 25: Travis Ott, HS LH starting pitcher. 3-0, 4.03 ERA with 32/12 K/BB in 29 innings in the GCL, 24 hits. The rare mid-20s round high schooler who signs, Ott was used as a starter in the GCL and was mostly good all year. His seasonal numbers were skewed by one bad outing where he gave up 6 earned runs in 1 2/3 innings in mid-July. This tall, lanky left-hander (6’4″ 170lbs) seemingly has room to grow and is very young; he turned 18 at the end of June. Looks like the Nats might have a find here. Trending up.

Round 26: Garrett Hampson, HS SS from Reno, NV. Did not sign; honored committment to Long Beach State (as confirmed by a local media site as well as PerfectGame). Hampson was a well regarded prospect heading into the draft (BA had him #84) and may have been a typical casulty of the new MLB draft reality; unless you’re picked in the first couple rounds and will sign for slot, you’re dropping.

Round 27: Bryce Harmon, HS LH starting pitcher from Richmond, VA. Did not sign; honored committment to East Carolina University. A big lefty clocked 87-91 but recruited by lesser baseball schools (per PerfectGame).

Round 28: Joey Webb, Coll Sr LH relief pitcher. 2-0, 1.89 ERA with 25/6 K/BB in 19 innings in the GCL, 13 hits. A college senior who turns 23 in a few weeks pitching in the rookie league? The definition of “too old for the level.” But, Webb comes from a very small baseball school (NAIA’s Menlo College in California) and may not have been ready to compete with a bunch of Division I guys in Short-A. Webb has almost no baseball pedigree (PerfectGame doesn’t even have a profile of him) so he’ll have to earn it going forward. Trending steady.

Round 29: Mike Sylvestri, Coll Sr RH relief pitcher. 3-1, 5.40 ERA with 14/9 K/BB in 18 innings split between Short-A and the Rookie league. Sylvestri started in Auburn, got shelled (12 runs in 8 2/3 innings) then threw a shutout in the rookie league (9 2/3 innings, 9 hits, zero runs). He’s undersized (5’10”, 180) and could have trouble getting out of rookie ball (as evidenced by his short-A experience). May not be long for the organization. Trending down.

Round 30: Ryan Ullmann, Coll Sr RH Starting pitcher. 3-2, 4.74 ERA with 38/13 K/BB in 49 1/3 innings, 64 h its. Ullman, like Webb, started in the rookie league being a senior coming from an NAIA (small). By the end of the season, Ullmann was in the Auburn rotation. He got 6 starts in Auburn with some up and down results (3 decent, one ok, two bad) that resulted in a 5.30 ERA all told. You can’t teach size (he’s 6’6″, 230). Ullmann closed in college and may return to the pen. Trending down.

Round 31: Willie Medina, Coll Sr SS. .228/.315/.237 with 0 homers, 9 walks, 24 strikeouts in 114 ABs for the GCL Nats. A .552 OPS playing as a 22-yr old in the rookie league is disappointing. Medina may struggle to make it out of Viera next spring. Trending down.

Round 32: Pat Boling, Coll Jr LHP: Did not sign, chose to return to U. of Georgia for his senior season. Bolling missed all of the 2012 season with an injury and redshirted, then had an uneven 2013 season (going from weekend starter to bullpen guy). Probably looking to either complete his degree or try to compete for a full time starter job a year removed from injury in 2014.

Round 33: Andrew Dunlap, HS C/RHP from Houston. Did not sign. Honoring a committment to Rice University. Research on Dunlap finds an interesting story; he apparently went to 3 different high schools all told (he moved around b/c because at the time he was a catcher and was blocked at the varsity level), was committed to Texas Tech at one point but then de-committed when he decided to become a pitcher and discovered he could hit 95-96 on the mound, transferred again and tried to gain a 5th year of high school eligibility, apparently failed, and had no “team” to play for this past spring. Nonetheless, he had multiple offers for scholarships (Rice, UNC and U San Diego) before going to Rice. BA did a Q&A feature on him in Feb 2013, so I’m guessing he was supposed to go much higher than the 33rd round.

Round 34: Jake Walsh, Coll Sr LH relief pitcher. 0-0, 1.40 ERA with 17/5 K/BB in 19 1/3 innings closing in the Rookie League. Promoted to Hagerstown on 9/3/13 to provide lefty bullpen coverage in the playoffs. He was probably too old and too experienced for the rookie league but showed enough promise to get a two-level call-up for the post-season. Lets see how he does in 2013, likely as a situational lefty/closer for Hagerstown. Trending up.

Round 35: Lukas Schiraldi, Juco RHP from Texas. Did not sign. The son of Calvin Schiraldi, Lukas was a 2nd year All-American Juco pitcher ranked #162 by Baseball America who has decided to transfer to U Texas Austin (like his father) instead of signing. Understandible; if Schiraldi succeeds for Texas next spring, he’ll come into the 2014 draft as a high-powered college junior with much better earning potential.

Round 36: Reid Humphreys, HS SS from Missouri. Did not sign. Honoring committment to Mississippi State. Humphreys was the 2013 “Mr. Baseball” for the state of Missouri. He is also the brother of the Nationals’ own Tyler Moore, who also was Mr. Baseball for Missouri and also attended Mississippi State.

Round 37: Karsten Whitson, RH starting pitcher from Florida. Did not sign, returning to U Florida for his senior/4th year. Whitson is an interesting story. He was San Diego’s 1st round pick (9th overall) in 2010 and was drafted just behind Matt Harvey and just ahead of Chris Sale. In a move that surprised the Padres, Whitson refused to sign for slightly above-slot money and chose to go to school, turning down a $2.1M offer. After a great freshman year, Whitson struggled with arm pain his sophomore year and turned to Dr. James Andrews this past spring, performing a “cleanup” surgery on his shoulder to alleviate an “impingement” and costing him the whole season. Clearly Whitson needs to return to school and complete a full healthy season to regain draft value, so I don’t entirely understand this pick. Maybe the Nats wanted to see if Whitson wanted to sign and rehab with the team as opposed to on his own (they did something similar with Robert Orlan last year). But that would have made no sense for Whitson; he’s already in college on scholarship; why would he possibly have signed for round 37 money at this point in his career?

For me Whitson confirms what Keith Law always says when it comes to significant bonus money; take the money; you can always go back to college if you wash out of the minors. But you just never know what may happen; if Whitson suffers another injury or performs badly next spring, he’ll be lucky to be offered $10k and will really wish he’d have taken that life-changing $2M bonus. When proposed with this scenario, my wife says “I want my kid to go to college” but the reality is this; that money may not ever be there again, and the kid can always go to college later. You have to take it if it is there.

Round 38: Caleb Hamilton, HS SS from Washington State. Did not sign; honoring committment to U of Washington. Seems like Washington’s area scout liked Hamilton, so they made an impression on the kid and drafted him late.

Round 39: Robbie Tenerowicz, HS 2B/SS from California. Did not sign; honoring committment to UC Berkeley. He looks like an excellent Oakland-area product staying close to home. Made the Area Code team and was on some all-american lists. The Nats have drafted two middle infielders from Cal lately (Kobernus and Renda) so perhaps Tenerowicz will be a third in a few years.

Round 40: Shaun Anderson, HS RH starting pitcher from Florida. Did not sign; honoring committment to U of Florida. Baseball America had a nice little writeup on the 2013 draft’s Mr. Irrelevant.

Written by Todd Boss

September 5th, 2013 at 1:35 pm

Nats Franchise Draft history; biggest, best, worst Draft Picks

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Face of the Franchise Zimmerman easily represents the best player drafted in the Washington era (by WAR). Photo team official

This is the Third in a long-delayed series of “Best of” posts, breaking down the transactions of both the club’s General Managers. Previously:

1. Biggest/Best/Worst Trades in Nats History (March 2012)

2. Biggest/Best/Worst Free Agent signings in Nats History (November 2012).

Here’s Part 3: looking at the Biggest, Best and Worst Draft picks the team has made since arriving here in Washington.

Ground rules for this article:

1. Unlike the trades and free agent posts, assiging “credit” or “blame” for draft picks on the General Manager is not entirely straightforward. Baseball teams rely heavily on Scouting Directors and their staffs when it comes to the draft, especially once you get past the first few rounds. So, perhaps for the purposes of this article it is better to talk about the “Reign of Jim Bowden” and the “Reign of Mike Rizzo” instead of insinuating that every draft decision was made by the GM during these times. Much like the President of the US gets credit/blame when the US economy as a whole rises or falls (whether or not you’d like to argue that a president’s decisions can influence a multi-trillion dollar economy), so does the GM get the credit/blame for his staff’s draft picks. Most baseball pundits that I’ve read generally say that the GM/Team Ownership is always directly involved in making any 1st round and supplemental first round picks (because of the money), and will be involved if over-slot bonuses come up in later rounds, but that by the 5th round or so the entire draft is being conducted without the GM’s involvement. Which leads us to point #2…

2. Related to #1; Mike Rizzo, whom Bowden hired in July of 2006, may not have been the Scouting Director but he certainly had a say in the drafts (coming from a scouting background in Arizona). I’ll list scouting directors tenure here as well, related to #1 and #2. But, it probably isn’t going to be entirely fair to the GM to say that such-and-such a pick was “good” or “bad” if it was actually being done by his staff.

3. It is entirely “hindsight is 20/20” in nature. But, it is what it is. If you draft a 1st rounder who flames out in low-A, he’s a failure. If you draft a major leaguer in the 21st round, he’s a fantastic success. Mostly here in judging the “best draft picks” I’m looking for value in later rounds. As it turns out judging “worst” draft picks mostly will be around first round busts.

Just for review, here’s the tenure period of both GMs:

Nov 2004 – Mar 2009: Jim Bowden
Mar 2009 – present: Mike Rizzo

And here’s the tenure period of Scouting Directors during our time here in Washington:

Mid 2002 – Mar 2009: Dana Brown
Mar 2009 – Present: Kris Kline

The quintessential Nats Draft resource is the Draft Tracker Spreadsheet, initially created by NatsFarm.com’s Brian Oliver and now maintained by “SpringfieldFan. ” It has all our draft picks, where they came from and signing bonuses. A file I’ve kept recently (The Draft Prospects Worksheet) is a file I started to create when the Nats started getting some upper-end draft picks as a way to track who we may take. Lastly, you can query the entire amateur draft results per team at baseball-reference.com (the link will go to the 2009 draft by way of example).

Jim Bowden Tenure: Nov 2004 – Mar 2009

Bowden’s Biggest Draft Picks (in terms of dollars committed).

2005 1st rnd: Ryan Zimmerman, $2.975M
2007 1st rnd: Ross Detwiler, $2.1M
2007 6th rnd: Jack McGeary: $1.8M
2006 1st rnd: Chris Marrero: $1.6M
2006 1st rnd: Colten Willems: $1.4M

Bowden’s Best Draft Picks

2005 11th rnd: John Lannan out of Siena College. A durable and servicable lefty starter with MLB average numbers out of a small college in the 11th round is a great find.
2005 12th rnd: Craig Stammen out of Dayton. He didn’t look as if he’d be successful until his transition to the bullpen, where his arm action and movement have baffled hitters during his shorter reliever stints.
2006 41st rnd: Brad Peacock out of a Florida HS as a “draft and follow” guy (which enabled teams to take late round fliers on good talent, so this isn’t exactly the same as finding a true 41st round player who made the majors, since Peacock likely wouldn’t have been taken without the DDE rules in place and would have been an upper round draft pick the next season he was eligible).
2007 2nd rnd: Jordan Zimmermann out of U Wisconsin Stevens Point (not because of his draft position, but because of the scouting out of such a small school). Zimmermann survived TJ surgery and now looks like a hidden Ace in the making.
2007 4th rnd: Derek Norris out of a Kansas HS: possibly the best HS player the team has drafted since arriving in DC.
2008 10th rnd: Tommy Milone out of USC. Rizzo may not have rated him, but he looks to be in Oakland’s rotation for many years to come.
2008 16th rnd: Tyler Moore out of Mississippi State. Scouts continually have downplayed Moore’s power; I have never read a scouting report on Moore that didn’t focus on “holes in his swing” or “defensive liabilities.” All he’s done is mash the ball at every level he’s been challenged with in his career.
2008 19th rnd: Steve Lombardozzi out of St. Petersburg JuCo. Despite his pedigree (his father played in the Majors in parts of 6 seasons), Lombardozzi was lightly pursued and surprisingly signed as a late round JuCo draftee. He’s scraped his way to the top though and could find himself starting if the team decides to move Espinosa.

Despite the issues at the top of the 2008 draft, it may have been Bowden’s best. He took no less than 6 guys who now are on 25-man rosters in this league (Milone, Moore, Lombardozzi, Espinosa, and Crow). 2005 wasn’t bad either, with 7 guys that have MLB appearances (though only 3 remain with the team).

Bowden’s Worst Draft Picks

2006: almost the entire draft. Bowden blew the first 6 picks on high schoolers, the best of whom was Chris Marrero, who has contributed -0.7 WAR in his career thus far. First round pick Colten Willems flamed out and just gave up playing in the middle of the 2010 season, Stephen Englund was released (but not before earning a 50-game suspension for Amphetemine usage), Sean Black didn’t sign and Stephen King has yet to succeed above A-ball despite being in his his 6th pro season (and, just for good measure, had his own 50-game drug suspension in 2009). Only one player in the top 12 rounds of picks even played a day in the majors. Just a complete debacle of a draft.
2007’s high schoolers: Smoker, Souza, Burgess, and Smolinkski: all top 3 round picks, all busts.
2007’s Jack McGeary, who insisted (admirably) on also going to college, but probably at the detriment of his baseball career. I’m sorry; if someone pays you $1.8M dollars in cash, you probably should work for that money. McGeary never was able to master anything above rookie ball and was so under-valued by the team that they failed to protect him in the minor league phase of the 2012 Rule 5 draft (where he was subsequently taken by Boston).
The 2008 Aaron Crow debacle. Yes I know that this pick turned into 2009’s Drew Storen. And yes I know that Crow has now been turned into a middle reliever while Storen has turned into an effective closer. At the time, this move helped continue the “incompetent” labels that the organization was earning, as Bowden reportedly refused to negotiate with Crow’s agents and failed to do his due diligence before drafting the player. Who is to say whether Crow’s electric arm wouldn’t have turned into a regular rotation member in our organization (Kansas City doesn’t exactly have a stellar record of developing pitchers). In the end, getting Storen and also not losing the opportunity cost of missing a year’s development time of a first round pick (by virtue of the rest of the team being so awful) ended up not hurting the team. But it still goes down as a draft failure for Bowden.

Mike Rizzo Tenure: Mar 2009 – present

Rizzo’s Biggest Draft Picks (in terms of dollars committed).

2009 1st rnd: Stephen Strasburg: $7.5M bonus, 15.1M guaranteed
2010 1st rnd: Bryce Harper: $6.25M bonus, $9.9M guaranteed
2011 1st rnd: Anthony Rendon: $6M, $7.2M guaranteed
2011 3rd rnd: Matthew Purke: $2.75M bonus, $4.15M guaranteed
2011 1st rnd (supplemental): Brian Goodwin: $3M
2012 1st rnd: Lucas Giolito: $2.9M
2011 1st rnd: Alex Meyer: $2M
2010 4th rnd: A.J. Cole: $2M
2009 1st rnd: Drew Storen: $1.6M

As we saw with the Free Agent post, Rizzo clearly had more money to work with from Ownership than Bowden did. Spending $2M on a 4th round pick (AJ Cole) would have been unheard of in the Bowden reign.

Rizzo’s Best Draft Picks

2009 12th rnd: Nathan Karns out of Texas Tech: Karns got 4th/5th round money in the 12th round but has been bedeviled by injuries until this year. By now we know what he’s capable of; our organization’s Minor League pitcher of the Year earned a spot on the 40-man roster and could be in line for a 2013 late season call-up. It could be too-early to tell, but right now this is looking like one of Rizzo’s best.
2009 22nd rnd: Danny Rosenbaum out of Xavier; despite the team not protecting him and losing him in Rule-5, he had come out of no-where to be one of our best pitching prospects.
2010 12th rnd: Robbie Ray out of a Tennessee HS; he had a great debut and has been steadily rising up the ranks. The team was able to buy him out of a committment to the University of Arkansas by offering 2nd round money.
2010 22nd rnd: Cameron Selik as a U Kansas senior has made it to AA and looks like a great later-round steal, especially for a college senior this low in the draft.
2011 5th rnd: Matt Skole out of Georgia Tech looks like he could be an excellent hitting prospect and is making it into the top 5 lists of Nationals prospects.
2011 1st rnd supp: Brian Goodwin out of a Miami JuCo looks more advanced than anyone would have thought at this point, and could be pressing for playing time in 2013. I don’t normally give plaudits for 1st round talents, but the team aggressively pursued and captured Goodwin at a time when it looked like he was heading to UNC.

Rizzo’s Worst Draft Picks

2009 2nd rnd: Jeff Kobernus out of Cal Berkeley. Perhaps less because of his production (which was mostly poor for his career), but moreso because the decision not to protect him and value your investment in the player, leading to his departure in the 2012 rule-5 draft. No worries for Nats fans: Rizzo drafted almost the doppelganger of Kobernus in 2012: again taking a 2nd baseman from California in the second round (Tony Renda). Lets hope it works out better this time.
2009 3rd rnd: Trevor Holder out of Georgia. A blatant punt on the draft pick to save money, Holder was a college senior with zero leverage and should have been offered closer to $1,000 instead of the $200,000 he got. Holder has struggled for years in our system. He did have a decent 2nd half in Harrisburg, so there is hope yet. But 3rd round picks should have more promise than Holder has shown.
2010 3rd rnd: Rick Hague out of Rice. He hasn’t lived up to his 3rd round billing yet, though (to be fair) he has struggled with some injuries.

Rizzo’s Too Soon to Tell Draft Picks

2010 2nd rnd: Sammy Solis was looking promising out of U San Diego, but has been side lined by Tommy John Surgery.
The 2011 college-arm gamble: Rizzo drafted dozens of college players this draft, stocking the system with experienced amateurs.
2012 1st: the Lucas Giolito gamble won’t play itself out for a couple of years, but it is safe to say Rizzo went “all in” on this player. A 1-1 talent but damaged goods upon drafting, the team is putting a lot of faith into its experience in dealing with hurlers going through Tommy John.
2011 3rd: Matt Purke got a MLB deal and a whole lot of money, and has done relatively nothing to earn it because of lingering shoulder injuries. I’m listing him as too early to tell, but the signs are not good.

Written by Todd Boss

December 28th, 2012 at 10:02 am

John Sickels Season Review of all Nats 2012 draft picks

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The Nats liked Mooneyham a lot more than pundits did. How did he do in his first pro season? Photo via mlbdraftcountdown.wordpress.com

John Sickels writes the very good blog located at www.minorleagueball.com. He does profiles on Minor League players, reviews the day’s marquee Minor League games, and generally does a good job highlighting the guys down on the farm.

Late this past season he embarked on a project where he has reviewed the performance of EVERY draft pick, by round, from the 2012 draft. This, as you might imagine, is one heck of an effort. In fact, in one of his later posts, he admitted he may not have the sanity to continue this all the way through all 40 rounds of players. In fact, he didn’t; he made it through 17 rounds and last posted on this thread 9/27/12. So I’ve completed his quick-hit analysis/statistical summary for the rest of our picks who debuted this year.

Below is a cutting-n-pasting of Sickels’ round-by-round analysis of the Nats players taken. I’ve put in links in the form of the “Round N” at each spot so you could read his original post. The (YY) number is overall draft pick positioning. Lastly, he started this series in mid-August, so I’ve updated the first several playerswriteups from Sickels’ to have season-ending stats, but his blurb is usually still accurate enough. After round 17, I’ve filled in the details in Sickel’s style for the rest of our draftees.

(For draft reference, click here for the fantastic Nationals Drafttrack Google XLS, created by Brian Oliver and now maintained by “SpringfieldFan.” Also, for 2012 draftee information, thanks to Sean Hogan‘s 2012 Nats draft pick blog research, which I’ve quoted at various places here. He has the best available summary of each draftee’s information.

Round 1: (#16 overall) Lucas Giolito, RHP, Washington Nationals: Threw two innings in the Gulf Coast League on August 14^th. [Editors Note: obviously we all know by now that those two innings resulted in Giolito’s blowing the partially torn UCL, and he has subsequently had Tommy John surgery. My thoughts on the pick and the resulting surgery have been published here before].

Round 2: (80) Tony Renda, 2B, Washington Nationals: .264/.341/.295 with 31 walks, 33 strikeouts, 15-for-18 in steals over 295 at-bats for Auburn in the NY-P. Controlling zone well, steady glove, but lack of pop is disappointing. He did improve his average 30 points in the last few weeks of the season, finishing hot.

Round 3: (111) Brett Mooneyham, LHP, Washington Nationals: 2.55 ERA with 29/16 K/BB in 42 1/3 innings for Auburn in the NY-P, 36 hits. Just like in college: looks like a pitcher, good arm, but doesn’t dominate the way you think he should. Like Renda, a couple of good late outings improved his peripherals.

Round 4: (144) Brandon Miller, OF, Washington Nationals: .292/.354/.549 with four homers, 10 walks, 36 strikeouts in 113 at-bats for Auburn in the NY-P. Small sample, but fits the scouting reports perfectly: he’s got a ton of power, but struggles for contact.

Round 5: (174) Spencer Kieboom, C, Washington Nationals: .258/.362/.305 with 19 walks, 24 strikeouts in 128 at-bats for Auburn in the NY-P. Has thrown out 44% of runners, but bat looks doubtful.

Round 6: (204) Hayden Jennings, OF, Washington Nationals: .192/.254/.231 with 11 walks, 70 strikeouts in 156 at-bats in the GCL. Has stolen 17 bases in 19 attempts, but his strikeout rate is obscene.

Round 7: (234) Robert Benincasa, RHP, Washington Nationals: 3.09 ERA with 32/3 K/BB in 23 1/3 innings for Auburn in the NY-P, 27 hits, 2.00 GO/AO. Slot bonus from college, could move quickly as reliever if healthy, just went on DL [Editor’s note: the DL trip seemed innocuous, a roster manipulation at season’s end].

Round 8: (264) Stephen Perez, SS, Washington Nationals: Below slot bonus for college infielder, awful hitter so far, .222/.252/.364 with four walks, 40 strikeouts in 99 at-bats between GCL and NY-P. Glovework also disappointing. Has good tools but didn’t play up to expectations in college at Miami, and hasn’t in pro ball so far either.

Round 9: (294) Derek Self, RHP, Washington Nationals: Below slot college pitcher, solid in pro ball so far, 3.27 ERA with 25/8 K/BB in 33 innings for Auburn in the NY-P, 32 hits, 14 saves. Good fastball/cutter combination.

Round 10: (324) Craig Manuel, C, Washington Nationals: College backstop with good defensive and intangible rep, bat questions kept him to a small bonus. So far, hitting .287/.376/.315 with 16 walks, 11 strikeouts in 143 at-bats for Auburn in the NY-P, with 41% of runners caught. If he had any power at all, he’d be a major sleeper.

Round 11: (354) Brian Rauh, RHP, Washington Nationals: Slot bonus for college pitcher, 3.99 ERA with 43/26 K/BB in 59 innings for Auburn in the NY-P and Hagerstown in the Low-A South Atlantic League. Held his own in pro ball although component ratios aren’t great.

Round 12: (384) Carlos Lopez, 1B, Washington Nationals: Below slot bonus college first baseman, solid slugger at Wake Forest but didn’t repeat success as a pro, .253/.332/.376 with three homers, 20 walks, 50 strikeouts in 170 at-bats for Auburn in the NY-P. Age 22.

Round 13: (414) Elliott Waterman, LHP, Washington Nationals: Slot bonus college pitcher from San Francisco, 4.97 ERA with 24/22 K/BB in 25 innings for Auburn in the NY-P, 31 hits. Held back by control issues at this point. Age 21.

Round 14: (444) Jordan Poole, OF, Washington Nationals: Another junior college guy, this one from Florida, name was called as a pitcher but he played outfield in pro ball, hit .205/.264/.295 with 10 walks, 58 strikeouts in 132 at-bats between GCL and NY-P. That won’t get it done.

Round 15: (474) Brandon Smith, OF, Washington Nationals: California prep didn’t sign, honored committment to Grand Canyon University.

Round 16: (504) Ronald Pena, RHP, Washington Nationals: Junior college pitcher from Florida, low 90s stuff, 6-4, 195 build, 12 innings with a 2.92 ERA and a 9/1 K/BB, five hits allowed between GCL and NY-P. Sleeper potential.

Round 17: (534) Blake Schwartz, RHP, Washington Nationals: College senior from Oklahoma City University, originally from Minnesota, performed well in pro debut with 3.05 ERA, 41/11 K/BB in 38 innings, 39 hits in the South Atlantic League. Considered a sleeper by some Midwestern scouts due to his command.

Round 18: (564) David Fischer, RHP, Washington Nationals: College senior from U-Conn, the lanky right handed hurler (6’5″, 175lb) struggled in his Short-A debut, posting a 4.96 ERA, 31/14 K/BB in 49 innings, 56 hits. Fischer only had a GO/AO ratio of 1.11, so he needs to work on keeping the ball on the ground in 2013. Considered a possible top-10 talent early in the 2012 college season, Fischer’s fastball sits 92-93 on a projectionable frame, but his off-speed pitches need work.

Round 19: (594) Brian Lippincott, 1B, Washington Nationals: a College senior from Concordia, this left-handed batting first baseman hit .281/.361/.374 with 16 walks, 29 strikeouts in 139 GCL at-bats. This is decent but far less impressive than Lippincott’s college career, where he hit .494 his senior season to led all Division II batters. He showed some power in college but relatively little in pro-ball; he’ll need to feature more power to stick at first base.

Round 20: (624) James Brooks, SS, Washington Nationals: a College senior from Utah hit .273/.345/.354 with 8 walks, 25 strikeouts in 99 GCL at-bats. He was 1-32 in 10 games in Auburn before being dropped down to the Rookie League. Perhaps the most interesting thing about Brooks is his birth place: Melbourne, Australia. No word yet whether he’s under consideration for Australia’s 2013 WBC team.

Round 21: (654) Austin Chubb, C, Washington Nationals: College senior from Florida Southern hit .209/.260/.373 with 3 walks, 11 strikeouts in 67 GCL at-bats. He hit left-handers to the tune of .400, but in a catcher-platoon, only catching every third day or so, he struggled to get going in 2013. He only threw out 3 of 12 runners and allowed 2 passed balls in his 10 games behind the plate. He’ll have to improve all around in 2013.

Round 22: (684) Will Hudgins, RHP, Washington Nationals: a College senior from Notre Dame (who hails from Richmond, so he has local roots) posted a 2.22 ERA, 31/6 K/BB in 44 2/3 innings, 41 hits split between GCL and AUB. Decent numbers despite being a 22-yr old in rookie ball, he has some promise as he fills out and moves forward. Perfect Game only has him with a mid-80s fastball but “with life;” I’m hoping that’s an old reading.

Round 23: (714) Casey Selsor, OF/LHP, Washington Nationals: this College Senior from UT-San Antonio was drafted ostensibly as an outfielder but threw 41 innings in rookie-ball while also getting a handful of at-bats/games in the field. He did neither relatively well; posting a 6.10 ERA, 34/15 k/bb in those 41 innings giving up 50 hits and seven home runs. While playing the out-field he was 1-6 in 3 games, hardly a judge-worthy sample size. The Nats clearly like this guy, having drafted him in 2008 out of high-school, so count on him sticking around at least a couple years. On the mound, he features as an undersized lefty (he’s only 5’10”) who throws upper 80s but with excellent secondary stuff.

Round 24: (744) Kevin Dicharry, RHP, Washington Nationals: College Senior from University of Texas missed most of his college career with shoulder issues (tendinitis) after an excellent freshman year. His pro debut looked very promising; 2.84 ERA, 22/4 K/BB in 25 1/3 innings, 19 hits, zero homers allowed. Dicharry was highly regarded nationally graduating high school (a 2nd team Rawlings All-American and a marquee part of Texas’ recruiting class) and this pick represents a great value pick for the Nats if Dicharry regains some of his past form. He reportedly is showing a low 90s fastball, a tight curve and a good change this year, to go with his excellent control (nearly a 6-1 k/bb ratio). A sleeper prospect if he stays healthy.

Round 25: (774) Freddy Avis, RHP, Washington Nationals: California prep didn’t sign, honored commitment to Stanford.

Round 26: (804) Skye Bolt, RHP, Washington Nationals: Georgia prep didn’t sign, honored commitment to UNC.

Round 27: (834) Cody Poteet, RHP, Washington Nationals: California prep didn’t sign, honored commitment to UCLA.

Round 28: (864) Hunter Bailey, SS, Washington Nationals: College senior from Oklahoma State hit .247/.345/.329 with 8 walks, 12 strikeouts in 73 GCL at-bats. He clearly features as a low-power middle infielder glove and may struggle to stand out in the system.

Round 29: (894) Leonard Hollins, RHP, Washington Nationals: A JuCo 2-year graduate from Chipola college threw 9 no-hit innings in the GCL and then was jumped to low-A, where he posted a 4.50 ERA in 18 innings, 8/7 K/BB ratio, giving up 18 hits. He’s a submarining right-handed reliever who had a tendency to pitch either a perfect 1-2-3 inning or give up a slew of hits. He’s tough to get the ball in the air on though; a 3.50 GO/AO ratio in Hagerstown and zero homers given up in 27 IP in his pro debut across both levels. He could be an intriguing, difficult-to-scout/hard to quantify reliever for the team moving forward. A sleeper reliever prospect.

Round 30: (924) Robert Orlan, LHP, Washington Nationals: A junior draftee out of UNC, Orlan suffered an elbow injury late in the college season and was immediately placed on the 60-day DL by the team. No bonus information is given for the player, who likely signed with the team knowing that a year’s recovery from Tommy John would have cost him his entire senior year of college too. He profiled as a top-15 round talent, a lefty with decent velocity (upper 80s coming out of HS, presumably more now) and a decent variety of pitches. Another value pick by the Nats, who could get a later-round steal if Orlan regains some of his promise after injury recovery.

Round 31: (954) Michael Boyden, RHP, Washington Nationals: This college senior out of University of Maryland quickly was promoted out of the GCL and posted a 1.44 ERA in 25 innings of short-A. His control was pretty bad though: 22/17 K/BB ratio in those 25 innings. In college he reportedly showed 90-92 with flashes to 94, but dropped because of his size and control issues. This local product (he grew up in La Plata, played a year at GW and finished at Maryland) likely gets lucky to be drafted by his local team, and we’ll see if his wildness causes some regression on these numbers in the future.

Round 32: (984) Michael Mudron, LHP, Washington Nationals: College senior from Cal State San Bernadino posted a 3.75ERA in 24 innings in the GCL, with a 27/8 K/BB ratio, 16 hits. A decent K/bb ratio, decent numbers for Mudron (who is incorrectly listed on milb.com as a right-handed pitcher). I cannot find any scouting information, but assume that he profiles as a lefty match up guy (though his 2012 splits showed little lefty-lefty matchup capability).

Round 33: (1014) Mike McQuillan, 2B, Washington Nationals: College senior from Iowa hit .268/.362/.430 in 149 ABs for Auburn after being promoted out of the GCL. 21 walks and 27 Ks in those 149 Abs. He features as a classic undersize 2nd baseman with little pop, but if his OBP stays above .350 he should continue to rise in the system.

Round 34: Jake Jeffries, 2B: California Prep did not sign, honored commitment to Cal St. Fullerton.

Round 35: Corey Bafidis, LHP: Texas Weslylan junior opted to return for his senior season.

Round 36: Max Ungar, C: Maryland Prep did not sign, honored commitment to Denison.

Round 37: Tyler Watson, LHP: Texas Prep did not sign, honored commitment to Kansas.

Round 38: Jarred Messer, RHP: Mallone College (OH) junior opted to return for his senior season.

Round 39: Mitchell Williams, C: Georga Prep did not sign, honored commitment to the Marion Institute.

Round 40: Ricky Gutierrez, CF: Florida Prep did not sign, honored his football commitment to U-Conn.

There you have it; your 2012 draft class. So far, there seems like there’s some definite sleeper potential in the lower rounds and some players who played above their draft position. I can’t wait to see how the likes of arms Pena, Schwartz, Hudgins, Dicharry and eventually Orlan pan out.

Written by Todd Boss

December 10th, 2012 at 9:12 am

Nationals Arm Race

Archive for the ‘tony renda’ tag

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What is the benchmark for a “good” or “bad” draft?

Season Statistical Review of all Nats 2012 draft picks

Season Statistical Review of all Nats 2013 draft picks

Nats Franchise Draft history; biggest, best, worst Draft Picks

John Sickels Season Review of all Nats 2012 draft picks

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