Melancon takes over for the beleagured Papelbon. Photo via bucsdugout.com
At the trade deadline, we saw three significant closer-quality arms moved.
- Cubs acquire Aroldis Chapman for Rashad Crawford, Billy McKinney, Gleyber Torres, and Adam Warren.
- Nationals acquire Mark Melancon for Felipe Rivero and Taylor Hearn.
- Indians acquire Andrew Miller for Clint Frazier, Justus Sheffield, Ben Heller and J.P. Feyereisen.
Chapman fetches the Cubs #1 prospect in Torres (he immediately becomes the Yankees’ #1 prospect) in addition to a more marginal (but still ranked) prospect in McKinney, a lottery ticket in Crawford AND the return of their former 8th inning guy Warren. This in return for perhaps the premier closer in the game for a 2 month rental.
Melancon fetched a solid, young lefty reliever in Rivero (whose peripherals counter his currently poor-looking 2016 ERA) plus a 2nd tier ranked prospect in Hearn who is probably 3 years away. This in return for 2 months of an elite but not quite as dominant closer.
Miller fetched the Indians #1, #5, #30th ranked prospects in the Cleveland organization (including two 1st round picks) plus an org-arm. This in return for one of the best relievers in the game for this year plus two more years at a relatively reasonable price ($9M/per).
Projected WAR for these three guys (using opportunistic estimates based on historical performance);
- Chapman: 0.8-1.0 bWAR for his 2 month rental (2.7 bWAR in 2015)
- Melancon: 0.6-0.7 bWAR for his 2 month rental (1.9 bWAR in 2015)
- Miller: 1.0 bWAR for his 2 month rental plus another 4.5 bWAR for 2017-2018: 5.5 bWAR total.
And then there’s the money factors and the intangibles:
- Chapman: Domestic Violence suspension earlier this year. $4.33M of salary due this year.
- Melancon: Salary relief provided by Pittsburgh (not sure how much, but believed to be all of his 2016 salary)
- Miller: no salary relief.
Which deal do you like the most? Miller clearly got the most in terms of value, but he also was the best positioned for the long haul. But even at best case, Miller’s only going to return 5 and a half war over the next 3 years for Cleveland; that’s about as much bWAR as Anthony Rendon provided in his first big breakout season. Chapman cost much, much more than Melancon; is he worth that much more?
I hate to sound like a homer, but for what they sought and what they gave up, I completely prefer the Nats deal here. We gave up none of our top tier of prospects, we didn’t take on cash, and we got precisely what we wanted (closer coverage for 2016) and nothing more. Keith Law hated the deal of course, but he covets prospects and hates closers so it is no surprise. I also kind of thought that Mike Rizzo would have learned his lesson after the Papelbon-Drew Storen nightmare (remember; he’s the same GM who flipped 2 months of a FA acquisition Matt Capps for years of Wilson Ramos.