Nationals Arm Race

The Nats for years were heavy participants in the Rule-5 draft, thanks to some pretty awful teams and no real aspirations to compete on the field.   From 2010 on-wards they stopped taking players, but have lost some players here and there.  This post is all about players taken and lost in Rule 5 drafts..  We have not posted on this in some time; that’s because its been a while since a player of some significance was taken.  Well, on 12/12/19 a player that most of us thought should have been protected a few weeks ago ahead of this draft went 3rd overall to Miami in Sterling Sharp, so I thought it was a good time to bring this back out.

Past versions of this post: December 2016,  January of 2014. and November 2011.

Borrowing a chunk of the text for the previous years from the previous post, here’s a list of the Rule 5 drafts since 2005, with our players taken/received noted and with some thoughts on how the player turned out for either side.  I’ve tried to update all Rule 5 candidates with career dispositions.

Note: this post used to be to pass judgement on our Rule-5 picks, so when you see “Verdict: Failure” that’s what it means.  Its been so long since we tried to draft someone that I forgot what it was like.  Suffice it to say … there’s not a lot of success with these picks, either for those we took or those who got taken from us.

(A reminder: These minor league rule-5 acquisitions are essentially $12,000 purchases and the drafters now own these contracts; I’m not entirely clear on the rules that drive them, nor how the players are determined to be eligible, nor if there’s any requirements that the players have to stay on a particular roster).

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2021 update: thanks to the lockout, the entire Rule-5 draft was cancelled in 2021.

2020 Update: We selected no one, nor did we have anyone selected from us in either the major or minor league phase of the 2020 Rule-5 draft.  So no updates to this post for this year.

MLB beat reporter Jessica Camerato posted a nice Rule-5 history lesson on 12/11/20.

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2019 rule 5 Draft (ahead of the 2020 season):

Conducted 12/12/19:   Nats did not take any players in the major league phase for the 9th straight year.  Sterling Sharp, a 2016 22nd round RHP starter, was taken from us by Miami with the 3rd overall pick.  This was a frustration for many pundits, who clearly had identified Sharp as someone to protect ahead of the deadline.  With rosters expanding to 26, the Marlins (who are barely trying) get a free prospect who probably can sit in their MLB bullpen all year if he can’t make the rotation.  I mean, right now I project the Marlins rotation as the worst in the sport; if Sharp can’t fit into the 5th starter/swing man role for the worst rotation in the majors …

Post Publishing update: Sharp was returned to the Nats on 8/27/20 after four un-impressive appearances for the Marlins.

In the Minor league phase:

• Nats took SS Manuel Geraldo from San Francisco
• Nats had taken from us SS David Masters by the chicago Cubs

Masters is listed as declared a MLFA by milb.com, so i’m not entirely sure how he was still available in Rule-5, but so be it.  Perhaps he re-signed under the radar and then got plucked.

So, notable players who we were “worried” about getting picked but who now are safe for another season include the likes of Mario Sanchez, Taylor Gushue, Joan Baez, Andrew Istler, Jakson Reetz, Steven Fuentes, Jhonathan German and Nick Banks.

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2018 Rule 5 Draft (ahead of 2019 season)

Full Draft results:  The Nats did not take anyone, nor have anyone taken from them in the Major league phase.

In the Minor league phase:

• Nats selected  CF Chuck Taylor from Seattle.
• Nats had taken from them C Alejandro Flores by Houston.

Taylor hit a combined .229 across AA and AAA for the Nats in 2019, then hit MLFA.  Flores was assigned eventually to High-A in late May 2019.  He played 2 games, went on the DL, then was released three weeks later.  He picked up with a Mexican League team soon after, barely played there but remains on their active roster.

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2017 Rule 5 Draft (ahead of the 2018 season)

Full Draft Results here.  The Nats did not take anyone, nor have anyone taken from them in the Major league phase.

In the Minor league phase:

• Nats selected 2B Jacob Wilson from St Louis
• Nats selected RHP Kaleb Fleck from Arizona
• Nats had taken from them LHP Robert “RC” Orlan by Cleveland

Wilson hit solidly for AAA Syracuse in 2018, then started hot in Fresno AAA in 2019 before being released so he could pursue an opportunity in Korean baseball.  He remains there today.  Fleck was sent to AA Harrisburg for the 2018 season and didn’t pitch badly, but was released in July.  He pitched a little bit of Indy ball for a team near his home in PA, but likely retired after 2018 season at the age of 29.  Orlan bounced around five different teams for Cleveland in 2018, then settled into AAA to start 2019, got shelled, and was released in May.

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2016 Rule 5 Draft (ahead of the 2017 season)

Full draft results here for the 12/8/16.  For the sixth straight year, the Nats did not take anyone in the major league phase.  For the third time in a row, we did not have anyone taken either.  Lets pause to congratulate the team for its excellence in player analysis.

In the minor league phase:

• the Nats did not take anyone
• RHP reliever Philp Walby was taken in the “AAA phase” by Toronto.

We acquired Walby on 5/31/16 as a MLFA from the New York Yankees and he pitched quite ably for us in Hagerstown, with more than a K/inning.  He was in his age 24 year though, so clearly “old for the level” and i’m guessing Toronto is banking on him being able to compete in the upper levels immediately.  Its notable that milb.com never even bothered to get him in the Hagerstown Suns hat for his profile :-).

Walby pitched of 2017 in-between Low-A and High-A for Toronto’s affiliates, elected MLFA after the season, and has not pitched since.

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2015 Rule 5 Draft (ahead of the 2016 season)

This occurred on 12/10/15.  The Nationals did not take anyone in the major league phase, nor did they have anyone taken.

In the minor league phase:

• the Nationals selected 3B Zack Cox from the Miami organization
• The Nats did not have anyone taken from them.

Cox was entering his age 27 season, is a former 1st round pick and has bounced around AA and AAA the last four seasons.  He seemed like good AAA 3B insurance for the ever-injured Anthony Rendon (hey, has this comment aged well or what?), but Cox never even made it to Syracuse, getting released on 4/2/16 and never picking back up with another franchise.

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2014 Rule 5 Draft (ahead of the 2015 season)

For the first time since their arrival in DC, the Washington Nationals neither took a player in Rule-5 nor had one taken.

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2013 Rule 5 Draft (ahead of the 2014 season)

The team did not select anyone in the major league phase.  We did lose one player in the MLB phase:

• C Adrian Nieto was the 2nd overall pick in the major league phase, by the Chicago White Sox.  As commenters at the time noted, it seemed like an odd pick for the White Sox, who had a couple of younger developing catchers in their system.  Meanwhile Nieto had never played above A-ball but did hit .285/.373/.449 prior to the 2014 season.  Those are pretty good numbers for a catcher … even if he’s an old 24 in A-Ball.  I didn’t even mention him in my own pre-Rule5 analysis piece at the time, but amazingly he stuck on the White Sox roster for the entire 2014 season, hitting .236/.296/.340.  The White Sox sent him to AA for 2015, he elected FA (presumably after being DFA’d) and signed as a MLFA with Miami for 2016.  Nieto continues to bounce around the minors to this day, playing sparingly for AA Jacksonville in 2019.

In the minor league phase, the Nats took a couple of players for organizational depth: Theo Bowe, a AA outfielder from Cincinnati and Martires Arias, a low-A right-hander from the New York Mets.  Neither player really panned out: Bowe was left in XST the entire year and Arias was released before the season started.

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2012 Rule 5 Draft

Again, the team did not select anyone but got poached for four players in the major and minor phase.

• LHP Danny Rosenbaum was drafted by Colorado to take part in their unique rotation experiment (where guys work up to a certain pitch count each night).  Rosenbaum didn’t make the Rockie’s pitching staff out of spring training (somewhat an indictment of Rosenbaum’s skills; Colorado’s rotation was one of the worst in the majors in 2013) and he was returned to Nats.  Rosenbaum toiled in AAA for the Nats for the 2013 full season.  He was the AAA opening day starter in 2014 but blew his UCL and had TJ Surgery.  In Jan 2015 the team flipped him to Boston for Dan Butler, and he got roughed up in Boston’s system (0-8, 5.81 ERA).  He was released on 3/28/16 and may be done playing.
• Utility player Jeff Kobernus was drafted by the Boston Red Sox, traded to Tigers and then eventually returned to Nats.  Kobernus turned out to be quite the speedster, stealing nearly a base every other game in the minors and earned a call-up to the big team in 2013.  He struggled with injury, spending a chunk of 2014 on the 60 day D/L and had just a handful of MLB atbats.  The team released him mid spring training 2015, he picked up with the San Francisco organization and played near his home town in San Jose in 2015, struggling in High-A ball.  Kobernus never signed after the 2015 season and may be done playing.
• In the minor league phase, Nats draft bust Jack McGeary was taken by the Red Sox.  He threw 21 ineffective innings in short-A and low-A for Boston in 2013.  He’s from Boston, so it was a nice gesture, but it just doesn’t look like he’s ever going to recover from his arm issues.  Hey, at least he got his Stanford education and his bonus money.  He signed as a MLFA with the Los Angeles Dodgers organization for 2014, struggled again in A-ball, and did not sign for 2015.
• The Dodgers poached Hector Nelo from the Nats AA team and stuck him on their own AA team … where he promptly made the all-star game again and had another excellent season.  I’ll be honest; I do not know the minor league rule-5 protection rules, but I wonder why an all-star player was exposed, no matter what his age.  Nelo struggled in 2014, was released and looks like he’s out of affiliated ball.  So perhaps the team was a year early but still right in exposing him to Rule 5.

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2011 Rule 5 Draft

The Nats did not take anyone for the first time in years, but had two players themselves taken.  Neither player drafted was a surprise; I posted at the time that I thought both these players should have been protected.

• Brad Meyers (RH starting pitcher) was drafted by the New York Yankees, but he suffered an injury in spring training and was DL’d all year.  He was returned to the Nats and subsequently missed all of 2013 too.  I listed him as a “release candidate” in my 2014 rotation projections, not knowing if he was healthy or if he could win a AAA rotation spot that year; he ended up making 6 starts in AA and was released.  He’s now out of baseball.
• Erik Komatsu was drafted by St. Louis (in retaliation for our taking Broderick the previous year?), made their 2012 opening day roster, played for a while before being waived, got picked up by Minnesota, and by Memorial Day was returned to Washington in a whirlwind set of transactions.  He got hurt in 2013 and played just a few games for the Nats AA and AAA teams, then was released on 5/9/14.  He signed immediately with the Angels, bounced to Milwaukee, was a MLFA after the season and did not play in organized ball in 2015.

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2010 Rule 5 Draft

• Elvin Ramirez, RH reliever, drafted from the New York Mets: he was injured in spring training and spent the entirety of the season on the DL.  Interestingly, the team returned him to New York in October, long before they needed to, and with New York in 2012 he made his way to the majors for some appearances.  The Mets eventually sold him to the Angels, then he bounced around in MLFA to Pittsburgh and Cincinnati, and in 2015 was playing in the Mexican league.  Verdict: impatience leading to failure.
• Brian Broderick, RH Starting Pitcher, Drafted from St. Louis and stuck into the 2011′s bullpen as the long-man/mop-up guy.  He was awful, he was costing the team wins, and was eventually returned to St. Louis before May was out.   However, St. Louis waived him towards the end of 2012 and we picked him back up.  I projected him to be one of our AAA starters in 2013 but he struggled and ended the season in AA and was cut loose.  He pitched in Indy ball in 2014, well enough to get a MLFA contract in 2015, spending the whole year in the Royal’s AAA team.  He did not sign or play for 2016 and may be done. Verdict: failure across the board.

The team lost one player in the 2010 draft:

• The Phillies drafted Michael Martinez away from the Nats, and he stuck on their roster as a backup middle infielder.  His batting lines were awful though, and the Nats clearly had depth at middle infield at the time, so losing this player was not that big of a deal.  Martinez has continued to hit sub .200 but has bounced from Philly to Pittsburgh to Cleveland, splitting time between AAA and the major league rosters providing MIF cover.

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2009 Rule 5 Draft

• Jamie Hoffman; OF, Drafted with the #1 pick in the Rule 5 draft from Los Angeles Dodgers and immediately traded for Brian Bruney in a pre-arranged deal.  NY returned him to the Dodgers later that spring.   Bruney, meanwhile, immediately went to arbitration and lost with the team in the spring of 2010, was awful out of the gate, and the team outright released him before the end of May.   Verdict: failure, all the way around this transaction.

The team lost one player in this draft:

• Zech Zinicola was drafted away from us by Toronto, who eventually returned him to the Nats without any Toronto appearances.  His selection was probably due to Dana Brown‘s hiring in Toronto, going from Washington’s Scouting Director to being a special assistant to the GM in Toronto.  Zinicola remained in our farm system until 2013, when he was released.

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2008 Rule 5 Draft

• Terrell Young: Drafted with the #1 pick in the Rule 5 draft from Cincinnati.  He got hurt, never played for us, and was eventually returned to the Reds.   His injury was severe enough that he was out of baseball after being drafted; he has no professional games after 2008.  Verdict: failure.
• Ricardo Nanita, selected in the minor league phase, played most of 2009, then went to the Mexican league, then got picked up by Toronto in minor league free agency and has been there ever since, playing all of 2013 in Buffalo.   Verdict: failure.

The team lost two players in the minor league phase:

• RHP Luis Ortega to Royals was picked up off the Nats rookie squad, pitched one more season for Kansas City’s rookie squad and was cut.
• RHP Josh Perrault was picked up by the Orioles, who bounced him around their farm system for a couple of years before he retired in 2010.

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2007 Rule 5 Draft

• Matt Whitney: 1B/3B, Drafted and then eventually returned back to Cleveland, who eventually made the former 1st rounder a ML free agent and we signed him after the 2008 season.   We cut him after the 2009 season and he retired after 2010.  Verdict: failure.
• Garrett Guzman: LF/RF: after Rule-5 selecting him, the team eventually traded a PTBNL for him to Minnesota, then we cut him outright and nobody picked him up.  He played two years of Independent ball and was out of baseball after 2010.  Guzman is more infamously known as the player who was caught having sex with an underage girl while playing for our AA team in Harrisburg in 2008, likely the reason why nobody picked him up after his DFA.  Verdict: embarrassing failure.

The Nats lost one player of note in the minor league phase in this draft:

• Brett Campbell was drafted by Milwaukee in the AAA phase of the rule-5 draft.  Milwaukee released him in spring training of the subsequent 2008 season and Campbell never played another inning of pro baseball.  This seems especially odd to me: he was drafted in 2004 and rose all the way through the Nats system to debut in the majors by Sept of 2006.  He pitched in just two games in 2006, and returned to the minors in 2007.  Was he hurt?  He was only 26 when he apparently hung them up.  Oddity.

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2006 Rule 5 Draft

• Jesus Flores, C, drafted from the New York Mets, stuck with the team all year despite having only played high-A ball in the minors.  Despite his eventual injury issues that plagued him for the better part of 3 seasons, Flores remains the best example of a “found gold” prospect that can be had in the Rule 5 draft.   After the Nats DFA’d him last off-season, he bounced around both LA and Tampa’s AAA teams in 2013 but did not appear in the majors. Verdict: success.
• Levale Speigner RHP (a closer) was drafted from Minnesota and, as with Booker above, eventually was traded for by the Nats so they could keep him and stash him in the minors.  After some awful outings for the big team, he passed through waivers mid 2008 and was released from AAA in 2008, bounced around a couple other organizations, and retired after 2010.  Verdict: failure.

The Nats lost one player in this draft:

• Alejandro Machada was drafted by Minnesota just a month after the Nats had re-signed him to a minor league contract.  So Machada didn’t have to stay on their active roster.  And indeed he didn’t; he was injured all of 2007 and stayed with Minnesota’s AAA team until 2009, never again broaching the majors.

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2005 Rule 5 Draft

The Nats did not draft anyone, but had a player taken who went on a whirlwind tour of MLB organizations before getting returned mid 2006.

• Chris Booker was rule-5 drafted by Detroit, who immediately sold him to Philadelphia, who then waived him in May of 2006 with the intent of returning him … except that Kansas City picked him up, hung onto him for a couple months and eventually returned him to Washington.  The Nats eventually called him up but he was relatively ineffective and he washed out of the game (seemingly due to injuries) after 2008.

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2004 Rule 5 Draft (ahead of the 2005 season)

• Tony Blanco: 1B; drafted from Cincinnati.  He batted .177 as a 1st baseman backup while eating a roster spot all season, then we cut him from AAA after 2007.  He kicked around Colorado’s system for a year and has been playing in Japan ever since.  Verdict: failure.
• Tyrell Godwin: CF, drafted from Toronto.  Prior to the 2005 season, the team traded another minor leaguer to keep his rights, so this really played out less like a Rule-5 pickup in that Godwin didn’t have to stick on the 25-man roster all year.  He played a grand total of 3 games for the Nats, kicked around AAA for a while an hung them up in 2007.  Verdict: failure.

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Summary: we’ve drafted 11 guys in the MLB phase Rule 5 draft since 2005, and I’d classify 10 of the 11 draftees as eventual failures.  Not a great track record.  Plus its safe to say that most every player drafted FROM us has been a failure for the drafting team.  Clearly the Rule 5 draft isn’t a great way to reliably find players.  Why do we do so much analysis on it?  I dunno, because its fun?  Because its December and we’re desperate for Baseball news?  Fair enough 🙂

The Nats for years were heavy participants in the Rule-5 draft, thanks to some pretty awful teams and some shrewd scouting.  I first did this history post in November 2011, updating in in January of 2014 and here I update it for the last couple of draft results and drafted player disposition updated for the latest season.

Borrowing a chunk of the text for the previous years from the previous post, here’s a list of the Rule 5 drafts since 2005, with our players taken/received noted and with some thoughts on how the player turned out for either side.  Even though there wasn’t any 2016 Rule 5 action for the team, I’ve added a bunch of updates for all the recently involved players, updating their career dispositions.

Note: this post used to be to pass judgement on our Rule-5 picks, so when you see “Verdict: Failure” that’s what it means.  Its been so long since we tried to draft someone that I forgot what it was like.

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2016 Rule 5 Draft (ahead of the 2017 season)

Full draft results here for the 12/8/16.  For the sixth straight year, the Nats did not take anyone in the major league phase.  For the third time in a row, we did not have anyone taken either.  Lets pause to congratulate the team for its excellence in player analysis.

In the minor league phase, the Nats did not take anyone, but did have one player taken: RHP reliever Philp Walby was taken in the “AAA phase” by Toronto.  We acquired Walby on 5/31/16 as a MLFA from the New York Yankees and he pitched quite ably for us in Hagerstown, with more than a K/inning.  He was in his age 24 year though, so clearly “old for the level” and i’m guessing Toronto is banking on him being able to compete in the upper levels immediately.  Its notable that milb.com never even bothered to get him in the Hagerstown Suns hat for his profile :-).

(These minor league acquisitions are essentially $12,000 purchases and the drafters now own these contracts; I’m not entirely clear on the rules that drive them, nor how the players are determined to be eligible, but suffice it to say that Walby isn’t exactly a high-end prospect on our collective radars.)

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2015 Rule 5 Draft (ahead of the 2016 season)

This occurred on 12/10/15.  The Nationals did not take anyone in the major league phase, nor did they have anyone taken.

In the minor league phase, the Nationals selected 3B Zack Cox from the Miami organization. He was entering his age 27 season, is a former 1st round pick and has bounced around AA and AAA the last four seasons.  He seemed like good AAA 3B insurance for the ever-injured Anthony Rendon, but Cox never even made it to Syracuse, getting released on 4/2/16 and never picking back up with another franchise.

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2014 Rule 5 Draft (ahead of the 2015 season)

For the first time since their arrival in DC, the Washington Nationals neither took a player in Rule-5 nor had one taken.

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2013 Rule 5 Draft (ahead of the 2014 season)

The team did not select anyone in the major league phase.  We did lose one player in the MLB phase:

• C Adrian Nieto was the 2nd overall pick in the major league phase, by the Chicago White Sox.  As commenters at the time noted, it seemed like an odd pick for the White Sox, who had a couple of younger developing catchers in their system.  Meanwhile Nieto had never played above A-ball but did hit .285/.373/.449 prior to the 2014 season.  Those are pretty good numbers for a catcher … even if he’s an old 24 in A-Ball.  I didn’t even mention him in my own pre-Rule5 analysis piece at the time, but amazingly he stuck on the White Sox roster for the entire 2014 season, hitting .236/.296/.340.  The White Sox sent him to AA for 2015, he elected FA (presumably after being DFA’d) and signed as a MLFA with Miami for 2016.  After playing sparingly for New Orleans in 2016, he is a MLFA as we speak.

In the minor league phase, the Nats took a couple of players for organizational depth: Theo Bowe, a AA outfielder from Cincinnati and Martires Arias, a low-A right-hander from the New York Mets.  Neither player really panned out: Bowe was left in XST the entire year and Arias was released before the season started.

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2012 Rule 5 Draft

Again, the team did not select anyone but got poached for four players in the major and minor phase.

• LHP Danny Rosenbaum was drafted by Colorado to take part in their unique rotation experiment (where guys work up to a certain pitch count each night).  Rosenbaum didn’t make the Rockie’s pitching staff out of spring training (somewhat an indictment of Rosenbaum’s skills; Colorado’s rotation was one of the worst in the majors in 2013) and he was returned to Nats.  Rosenbaum toiled in AAA for the Nats for the 2013 full season.  He was the AAA opening day starter in 2014 but blew his UCL and had TJ Surgery.  In Jan 2015 the team flipped him to Boston for Dan Butler, and he got roughed up in Boston’s system (0-8, 5.81 ERA).  He was released on 3/28/16 and may be done playing.
• Utility player Jeff Kobernus was drafted by the Boston Red Sox, traded to Tigers and then eventually returned to Nats.  Kobernus turned out to be quite the speedster, stealing nearly a base every other game in the minors and earned a call-up to the big team in 2013.  He struggled with injury, spending a chunk of 2014 on the 60 day D/L and had just a handful of MLB atbats.  The team released him mid spring training 2015, he picked up with the San Francisco organization and played near his home town in San Jose in 2015, struggling in High-A ball.  Kobernus never signed after the 2015 season and may be done playing.
• In the minor league phase, Nats draft bust Jack McGeary was taken by the Red Sox.  He threw 21 ineffective innings in short-A and low-A for Boston in 2013.  He’s from Boston, so it was a nice gesture, but it just doesn’t look like he’s ever going to recover from his arm issues.  Hey, at least he got his Stanford education and his bonus money.  He signed as a MLFA with the Los Angeles Dodgers organization for 2014, struggled again in A-ball, and did not sign for 2015.
• The Dodgers poached Hector Nelo from the Nats AA team and stuck him on their own AA team … where he promptly made the all-star game again and had another excellent season.  I’ll be honest; I do not know the minor league rule-5 protection rules, but I wonder why an all-star player was exposed, no matter what his age.  Nelo struggled in 2014, was released and looks like he’s out of affiliated ball.  So perhaps the team was a year early but still right in exposing him to Rule 5.

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2011 Rule 5 Draft

The Nats did not take anyone for the first time in years, but had two players themselves taken.  Neither player drafted was a surprise; I posted at the time that I thought both these players should have been protected.

• Brad Meyers (RH starting pitcher) was drafted by the New York Yankees, but he suffered an injury in spring training and was DL’d all year.  He was returned to the Nats and subsequently missed all of 2013 too.  I listed him as a “release candidate” in my 2014 rotation projections, not knowing if he was healthy or if he could win a AAA rotation spot that year; he ended up making 6 starts in AA and was released.  He’s now out of baseball.
• Erik Komatsu was drafted by St. Louis (in retaliation for our taking Broderick the previous year?), made their 2012 opening day roster, played for a while before being waived, got picked up by Minnesota, and by Memorial Day was returned to Washington in a whirlwind set of transactions.  He got hurt in 2013 and played just a few games for the Nats AA and AAA teams, then was released on 5/9/14.  He signed immediately with the Angels, bounced to Milwaukee, was a MLFA after the season and did not play in organized ball in 2015.

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2010 Rule 5 Draft

• Elvin Ramirez, RH reliever, drafted from the New York Mets: he was injured in spring training and spent the entirety of the season on the DL.  Interestingly, the team returned him to New York in October, long before they needed to, and with New York in 2012 he made his way to the majors for some appearances.  The Mets eventually sold him to the Angels, then he bounced around in MLFA to Pittsburgh and Cincinnati, and in 2015 was playing in the Mexican league.  Verdict: impatience leading to failure.
• Brian Broderick, RH Starting Pitcher, Drafted from St. Louis and stuck into the 2011′s bullpen as the long-man/mop-up guy.  He was awful, he was costing the team wins, and was eventually returned to St. Louis before May was out.   However, St. Louis waived him towards the end of 2012 and we picked him back up.  I projected him to be one of our AAA starters in 2013 but he struggled and ended the season in AA and was cut loose.  He pitched in Indy ball in 2014, well enough to get a MLFA contract in 2015, spending the whole year in the Royal’s AAA team.  He did not sign or play for 2016 and may be done. Verdict: failure for the Nats, jury still out for the player.

The team lost one player in the 2010 draft:

• The Phillies drafted Michael Martinez away from the Nats, and he stuck on their roster as a backup middle infielder.  His batting lines were awful though, and the Nats clearly had depth at middle infield at the time, so losing this player was not that big of a deal.  Martinez has continued to hit sub .200 but has bounced from Philly to Pittsburgh to Cleveland, splitting time between AAA and the major league rosters providing MIF cover.

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2009 Rule 5 Draft

• Jamie Hoffman; OF, Drafted with the #1 pick in the Rule 5 draft from Los Angeles Dodgers and immediately traded for Brian Bruney in a pre-arranged deal.  NY returned him to the Dodgers later that spring.   Bruney, meanwhile, immediately went to arbitration and lost with the team in the spring of 2010, was awful out of the gate, and the team outright released him before the end of May.   Verdict: failure, all the way around this transaction.

The team lost one player in this draft:

• Zech Zinicola was drafted away from us by Toronto, who eventually returned him to the Nats without any Toronto appearances.  His selection was probably due to Dana Brown‘s hiring in Toronto, going from Washington’s Scouting Director to being a special assistant to the GM in Toronto.  Zinicola remained in our farm system until 2013, when he was released.

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2008 Rule 5 Draft

• Terrell Young: Drafted with the #1 pick in the Rule 5 draft from Cincinnati.  He got hurt, never played for us, and was eventually returned to the Reds.   His injury was severe enough that he was out of baseball after being drafted; he has no professional games after 2008.  Verdict: failure.
• Ricardo Nanita, selected in the minor league phase, played most of 2009, then went to the Mexican league, then got picked up by Toronto in minor league free agency and has been there ever since, playing all of 2013 in Buffalo.   Verdict: failure.

The team lost two players in the minor league phase:

• RHP Luis Ortega to Royals was picked up off the Nats rookie squad, pitched one more season for Kansas City’s rookie squad and was cut.
• RHP Josh Perrault was picked up by the Orioles, who bounced him around their farm system for a couple of years before he retired in 2010.

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2007 Rule 5 Draft

• Matt Whitney: 1B/3B, Drafted and then eventually returned back to Cleveland, who eventually made the former 1st rounder a ML free agent and we signed him after the 2008 season.   We cut him after the 2009 season and he retired after 2010.  Verdict: failure.
• Garrett Guzman: LF/RF: after Rule-5 selecting him, the team eventually traded a PTBNL for him to Minnesota, then we cut him outright and nobody picked him up.  He played two years of Independent ball and was out of baseball after 2010.  Guzman is more infamously known as the player who was caught having sex with an underage girl while playing for our AA team in Harrisburg in 2008, likely the reason why nobody picked him up after his DFA.  Verdict: embarrassing failure.

The Nats lost one player of note in the minor league phase in this draft:

• Brett Campbell was drafted by Milwaukee in the AAA phase of the rule-5 draft.  Milwaukee released him in spring training of the subsequent 2008 season and Campbell never played another inning of pro baseball.  This seems especially odd to me: he was drafted in 2004 and rose all the way through the Nats system to debut in the majors by Sept of 2006.  He pitched in just two games in 2006, and returned to the minors in 2007.  Was he hurt?  He was only 26 when he apparently hung them up.  Oddity.

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2006 Rule 5 Draft

• Jesus Flores, C, drafted from the New York Mets, stuck with the team all year despite having only played high-A ball in the minors.  Despite his eventual injury issues that plagued him for the better part of 3 seasons, Flores remains the best example of a “found gold” prospect that can be had in the Rule 5 draft.   After the Nats DFA’d him last off-season, he bounced around both LA and Tampa’s AAA teams in 2013 but did not appear in the majors. Verdict: success.
• Levale Speigner RHP (a closer) was drafted from Minnesota and, as with Booker above, eventually was traded for by the Nats so they could keep him and stash him in the minors.  After some awful outings for the big team, he passed through waivers mid 2008 and was released from AAA in 2008, bounced around a couple other organizations, and retired after 2010.  Verdict: failure.

The Nats lost one player in this draft:

• Alejandro Machada was drafted by Minnesota just a month after the Nats had re-signed him to a minor league contract.  So Machada didn’t have to stay on their active roster.  And indeed he didn’t; he was injured all of 2007 and stayed with Minnesota’s AAA team until 2009, never again broaching the majors.

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2005 Rule 5 Draft

The Nats did not draft anyone, but had a player taken who went on a whirlwind tour of MLB organizations before getting returned mid 2006.

• Chris Booker was rule-5 drafted by Detroit, who immediately sold him to Philadelphia, who then waived him in May of 2006 with the intent of returning him … except that Kansas City picked him up, hung onto him for a couple months and eventually returned him to Washington.  The Nats eventually called him up but he was relatively ineffective and he washed out of the game (seemingly due to injuries) after 2008.

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2004 Rule 5 Draft (ahead of the 2005 season)

• Tony Blanco: 1B; drafted from Cincinnati.  He batted .177 as a 1st baseman backup while eating a roster spot all season, then we cut him from AAA after 2007.  He kicked around Colorado’s system for a year and has been playing in Japan ever since.  Verdict: failure.
• Tyrell Godwin: CF, drafted from Toronto.  Prior to the 2005 season, the team traded another minor leaguer to keep his rights, so this really played out less like a Rule-5 pickup in that Godwin didn’t have to stick on the 25-man roster all year.  He played a grand total of 3 games for the Nats, kicked around AAA for a while an hung them up in 2007.  Verdict: failure.

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Summary: we’ve drafted 11 guys in the MLB phase Rule 5 draft since 2005, and I’d classify 10 of the 11 draftees as eventual failures.  Not a great track record.  Plus its safe to say that most every player drafted FROM us has been a failure for the drafting team.  Clearly the Rule 5 draft isn’t a great way to reliably find players.  Why do we do so much analysis on it?  I dunno, because its fun?  Because its December and we’re desperate for Baseball news?  Fair enough 🙂

The Nats for years were heavy participants in the Rule-5 draft, thanks to some pretty awful teams and some shrewd scouting.  I first did this history post in November 2011, updating in in January of 2014 and here I update it for the last couple of draft results and drafted player disposition updated for the latest season.

Borrowing a chunk of the text for the previous years from the previous post, here’s a list of the Rule 5 drafts since 2005, with our players taken/received noted and with some thoughts on how the player turned out for either side.  Even though there wasn’t much 2015 Rule 5 action for the team, I’ve added a bunch of updates for all the recently involved players, updating their career dispositions.

Note: this post used to be to pass judgement on our Rule-5 picks, so when you see “Verdict: Failure” that’s what it means.  Its been so long since we tried to draft someone that I forgot what it was like.

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2015 Rule 5 Draft (ahead of the 2016 season)

What just occurred on 12/10/15.  The Nationals did not take anyone in the major league phase, nor did they have anyone taken.

In the minor league phase, the Nationals selected 3B Zack Cox from the Miami organization.  He’s entering his age 27 season, is a former 1st round pick and has bounced around AA and AAA the last four seasons.  I’m calling him “Anthony Rendon” insurance for 2016.

These minor league acquisitions are essentially $12,000 purchases and the Nats now own these contract; I’m not entirely clear on the rules that drive them, nor how the players are determined to be eligible.

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2014 Rule 5 Draft (ahead of the 2015 season)

For the first time since their arrival in DC, the Washington Nationals neither took a player in Rule-5 nor had one taken.

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2013 Rule 5 Draft (ahead of the 2014 season)

The team did not select anyone in the major league phase.  We did lose one player in the MLB phase:

• C Adrian Nieto was the 2nd overall pick in the major league phase, by the Chicago White Sox.  As commenters at the time noted, it seemed like an odd pick for the White Sox, who had a couple of younger developing catchers in their system.  Meanwhile Nieto had never played above A-ball but did hit .285/.373/.449 prior to the 2014 season.  Those are pretty good numbers for a catcher … even if he’s an old 24 in A-Ball.  I didn’t even mention him in my own pre-Rule5 analysis piece at the time, but amazingly he stuck on the White Sox roster for the entire 2014 season, hitting .236/.296/.340.  The White Sox sent him to AA for 2015, he elected FA (presumably after being DFA’d) and signed as a MLFA with Miami for 2016.  Given the struggles of Jose Lobaton this past year, I’m slightly surprised he didn’t consider coming back to his original franchise.  Or, perhaps more to the point, knowing what I know about his dealings with the Nats front office over the years … perhaps I’m not (his agent Joshua Kusnick is a frequent guest on the NatsGM podcast, hosted by Ryan Sullivan).

In the minor league phase, the Nats took a couple of players for organizational depth: Theo Bowe, a AA outfielder from Cincinnati and Martires Arias, a low-A right-hander from the New York Mets.  Neither player really panned out: Bowe was left in XST the entire year and Arias was released before the season started.

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2012 Rule 5 Draft

Again, the team did not select anyone but got poached for four players in the major and minor phase.

• LHP Danny Rosenbaum was drafted by Colorado to take part in their unique rotation experiment (where guys work up to a certain pitch count each night).  Rosenbaum didn’t make the Rockie’s pitching staff out of spring training (somewhat an indictment of Rosenbaum’s skills; Colorado’s rotation was one of the worst in the majors in 2013) and he was returned to Nats.  Rosenbaum toiled in AAA for the Nats for the 2013 full season.  He was the AAA opening day starter in 2014 but blew his UCL and had TJ Surgery.  In Jan 2015 the team flipped him to Boston for Dan Butler, and he got roughed up in Boston’s system (0-8, 5.81 ERA).  As far as I can tell he’s still in the Boston organization, perhaps for one more year to see if he pans out.
• Utility player Jeff Kobernus was drafted by the Boston Red Sox, traded to Tigers and then eventually returned to Nats.  Kobernus turned out to be quite the speedster, stealing nearly a base every other game in the minors and earned a call-up to the big team in 2013.  He struggled with injury, spending a chunk of 2014 on the 60 day D/L and had just a handful of MLB atbats.  The team released him mid spring training 2015, he picked up with the San Francisco organization and played near his home town in San Jose in 2015, struggling in High-A ball.
• In the minor league phase, Nats draft bust Jack McGeary was taken by the Red Sox.  He threw 21 ineffective innings in short-A and low-A for Boston in 2013.  He’s from Boston, so it was a nice gesture, but it just doesn’t look like he’s ever going to recover from his arm issues.  Hey, at least he got his Stanford education and his bonus money.  He signed as a MLFA with the Los Angeles Dodgers organization for 2014, struggled again in A-ball, and did not sign for 2015.
• The Dodgers poached Hector Nelo from the Nats AA team and stuck him on their own AA team … where he promptly made the all-star game again and had another excellent season.  I’ll be honest; I do not know the minor league rule-5 protection rules, but I wonder why an all-star player was exposed, no matter what his age.  Nelo struggled in 2014, was released and looks like he’s out of affiliated ball.  So perhaps the team was a year early but still right in exposing him to Rule 5.

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2011 Rule 5 Draft

The Nats did not take anyone for the first time in years, but had two players themselves taken.  Neither player drafted was a surprise; I posted at the time that I thought both these players should have been protected.

• Brad Meyers (RH starting pitcher) was drafted by the New York Yankees, but he suffered an injury in spring training and was DL’d all year.  He was returned to the Nats and subsequently missed all of 2013 too.  I listed him as a “release candidate” in my 2014 rotation projections, not knowing if he was healthy or if he could win a AAA rotation spot that year; he ended up making 6 starts in AA and was released.  He’s now out of baseball.
• Erik Komatsu was drafted by St. Louis (in retaliation for our taking Broderick the previous year?), made their 2012 opening day roster, played for a while before being waived, got picked up by Minnesota, and by Memorial Day was returned to Washington in a whirlwind set of transactions.  He got hurt in 2013 and played just a few games for the Nats AA and AAA teams, then was released on 5/9/14.  He signed immediately with the Angels, bounced to Milwaukee, was a MLFA after the season and did not play in organized ball in 2015.

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2010 Rule 5 Draft

• Elvin Ramirez, RH reliever, drafted from the New York Mets: he was injured in spring training and spent the entirety of the season on the DL.  Interestingly, the team returned him to New York in October, long before they needed to, and with New York in 2012 he made his way to the majors for some appearances.  The Mets eventually sold him to the Angels, then he bounced around in MLFA to Pittsburgh and Cincinnati, and in 2015 was playing in the Mexican league.  Verdict: impatience leading to failure.
• Brian Broderick, RH Starting Pitcher, Drafted from St. Louis and stuck into the 2011′s bullpen as the long-man/mop-up guy.  He was awful, he was costing the team wins, and was eventually returned to St. Louis before May was out.   However, St. Louis waived him towards the end of 2012 and we picked him back up.  I projected him to be one of our AAA starters in 2013 but he struggled and ended the season in AA and was cut loose.  He pitched in Indy ball in 2014, well enough to get a MLFA contract in 2015, spending the whole year in the Royal’s AAA team.  He’s still hanging in there.  Verdict: failure for the Nats, jury still out for the player.

The team lost one player in the 2010 draft:

• The Phillies drafted Michael Martinez away from the Nats, and he stuck on their roster as a backup middle infielder.  His batting lines were awful though, and the Nats clearly had depth at middle infield at the time, so losing this player was not that big of a deal.  Martinez has continued to hit sub .200 but has bounced from Philly to Pittsburgh to Cleveland, splitting time between AAA and the major league rosters providing MIF cover.

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2009 Rule 5 Draft

• Jamie Hoffman; OF, Drafted with the #1 pick in the Rule 5 draft from Los Angeles Dodgers and immediately traded for Brian Bruney in a pre-arranged deal.  NY returned him to the Dodgers later that spring.   Bruney, meanwhile, immediately went to arbitration and lost with the team in the spring of 2010, was awful out of the gate, and the team outright released him before the end of May.   Verdict: failure, all the way around this transaction.

The team lost one player in this draft:

• Zech Zinicola was drafted away from us by Toronto, who eventually returned him to the Nats without any Toronto appearances.  His selection was probably due to Dana Brown‘s hiring in Toronto, going from Washington’s Scouting Director to being a special assistant to the GM in Toronto.  Zinicola remained in our farm system until 2013, when he was released.

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2008 Rule 5 Draft

• Terrell Young: Drafted with the #1 pick in the Rule 5 draft from Cincinnati.  He got hurt, never played for us, and was eventually returned to the Reds.   His injury was severe enough that he was out of baseball after being drafted; he has no professional games after 2008.  Verdict: failure.
• Ricardo Nanita, selected in the minor league phase, played most of 2009, then went to the Mexican league, then got picked up by Toronto in minor league free agency and has been there ever since, playing all of 2013 in Buffalo.   Verdict: failure.

The team lost two players in the minor league phase:

• RHP Luis Ortega to Royals was picked up off the Nats rookie squad, pitched one more season for Kansas City’s rookie squad and was cut.
• RHP Josh Perrault was picked up by the Orioles, who bounced him around their farm system for a couple of years before he retired in 2010.

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2007 Rule 5 Draft

• Matt Whitney: 1B/3B, Drafted and then eventually returned back to Cleveland, who eventually made the former 1st rounder a ML free agent and we signed him after the 2008 season.   We cut him after the 2009 season and he retired after 2010.  Verdict: failure.
• Garrett Guzman: LF/RF: after Rule-5 selecting him, the team eventually traded a PTBNL for him to Minnesota, then we cut him outright and nobody picked him up.  He played two years of Independent ball and was out of baseball after 2010.  Guzman is more infamously known as the player who was caught having sex with an underage girl while playing for our AA team in Harrisburg in 2008, likely the reason why nobody picked him up after his DFA.  Verdict: embarrassing failure.

The Nats lost one player of note in the minor league phase in this draft:

• Brett Campbell was drafted by Milwaukee in the AAA phase of the rule-5 draft.  Milwaukee released him in spring training of the subsequent 2008 season and Campbell never played another inning of pro baseball.  This seems especially odd to me: he was drafted in 2004 and rose all the way through the Nats system to debut in the majors by Sept of 2006.  He pitched in just two games in 2006, and returned to the minors in 2007.  Was he hurt?  He was only 26 when he apparently hung them up.  Oddity.

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2006 Rule 5 Draft

• Jesus Flores, C, drafted from the New York Mets, stuck with the team all year despite having only played high-A ball in the minors.  Despite his eventual injury issues that plagued him for the better part of 3 seasons, Flores remains the best example of a “found gold” prospect that can be had in the Rule 5 draft.   After the Nats DFA’d him last off-season, he bounced around both LA and Tampa’s AAA teams in 2013 but did not appear in the majors. Verdict: success.
• Levale Speigner RHP (a closer) was drafted from Minnesota and, as with Booker above, eventually was traded for by the Nats so they could keep him and stash him in the minors.  After some awful outings for the big team, he passed through waivers mid 2008 and was released from AAA in 2008, bounced around a couple other organizations, and retired after 2010.  Verdict: failure.

The Nats lost one player in this draft:

• Alejandro Machada was drafted by Minnesota just a month after the Nats had re-signed him to a minor league contract.  So Machada didn’t have to stay on their active roster.  And indeed he didn’t; he was injured all of 2007 and stayed with Minnesota’s AAA team until 2009, never again broaching the majors.

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2005 Rule 5 Draft

The Nats did not draft anyone, but had a player taken who went on a whirlwind tour of MLB organizations before getting returned mid 2006.

• Chris Booker was rule-5 drafted by Detroit, who immediately sold him to Philadelphia, who then waived him in May of 2006 with the intent of returning him … except that Kansas City picked him up, hung onto him for a couple months and eventually returned him to Washington.  The Nats eventually called him up but he was relatively ineffective and he washed out of the game (seemingly due to injuries) after 2008.

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2004 Rule 5 Draft (ahead of the 2005 season)

• Tony Blanco: 1B; drafted from Cincinnati.  He batted .177 as a 1st baseman backup while eating a roster spot all season, then we cut him from AAA after 2007.  He kicked around Colorado’s system for a year and has been playing in Japan ever since.  Verdict: failure.
• Tyrell Godwin: CF, drafted from Toronto.  Prior to the 2005 season, the team traded another minor leaguer to keep his rights, so this really played out less like a Rule-5 pickup in that Godwin didn’t have to stick on the 25-man roster all year.  He played a grand total of 3 games for the Nats, kicked around AAA for a while an hung them up in 2007.  Verdict: failure.

 

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Summary: we’ve drafted 11 guys in the MLB phase Rule 5 draft since 2005, and I’d classify 10 of the 11 draftees as eventual failures.  Not a great track record.  Plus its safe to say that most every player drafted FROM us has been a failure for the drafting team.  Clearly the Rule 5 draft isn’t a great way to reliably find players.  Why do we do so much analysis on it?  I dunno, because its fun?  Because its December and we’re desperate for Baseball news?  Fair enough 🙂

Note: this is a recurring post, and large chunks of the older material is recycled.  I’ve updated the research for older players as needed.  See here for 2013’s version, click here for 2012’s version of this post.

Several years ago (November 2010) Mark Zuckerman posted a fascinating analysis he titled “From Nats to Oblivion.”  It chronicled the astoundingly high number of players that the early incarnations of the Nats were using who, once the Nats released them, never again appeared in a MLB game.  I thought the analysis was so interesting that I kept up the same data and have been keeping it up-to-date with the whereabouts of Nats-to-Oblivion candidates ever since.  So with apologies to Zuckerman for stealing his idea, here’s an interesting visit to the Nats darker past.

It is nearly impossible for a team to field an entire year’s worth of players who will not fall into this “Oblivion” category.  Every MLB team has guys playing out the string or near retirement, and every MLB team calls up guys through out the season from the minors who eventually show themselves as unable to compete on the MLB level and who never make it back.  So a 0% oblivion measure isn’t a goal.  The best this team has done is 5 players (the 2012 and 2013 teams), but the 2014 team has a good shot of beating that.

For your reminiscing pleasure, here is the summary data updated to the 2014 team:

• 2014: 22 position, 18 pitchers, 40 total.  8/40 = 20% candidate ratio right now
• 2013: 23 position, 21 pitchers, 44 total.  5/44 = 11.3% candidate ratio
• 2012: 24 position, 19 pitchers, 43 total.  5/43 = 11.6% candidate ratio
• 2011: 20 position, 24 pitchers, 44 total.  6/44 = 13.6% candidate ratio
• 2010: 20 position, 26 pitchers, 46 total.  12/46 = 26.0% never appeared again
• 2009: 25 position, 30 pitchers, 55 total.  9/55 = 16.3% never appeared again
• 2008: 25 position, 25 pitchers, 50 total.  8/50 = 16% never appeared again
• 2007: 21 position, 26 pitchers, 47 total.  12/47 = 25.5% never appeared again
• 2006: 28 position, 29 pitchers, 57 total.  20/57 = 35% never appeared again
• 2005: 30 position, 25 pitchers, 55 total.  16/55 = 29% never appeared again

Look at the 2006 season; 35% of the players who played for the team that year never played another Major League game.  That’s still astounding to me.  Read on for a detailed look back at some of the very bad players that have put in significant time for this team.

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2014 (8 candidates right now):

Total Players used: 22 position, 18 pitchers, 40 total.  8/40 = 20% candidate ratio right now

Candidates:

• Scott Hairston: FA after 2014, has not yet signed for 2015
• Greg Dobbs: FA after 2014, has not signed yet for 2015
• Nate Schierholtz: FA after 2014, signed w/ Texas but did not stay with club out of spring training.  Currently unsigned Currently in Japan
• Kevin Frandsen; re-signed and released by team in Apr 2015. Signed w/ Arizona Apr 2015, ML deal for AAA
• Ryan Mattheus: Signed with LAA for 2015; in AAA
• Jeff Kobernus: Nats AAA 2015 Released by the team Mar 2015, unsigned as of this posting.
• Rafael Soriano: FA after 2014, has yet to sign for 2015
• Taylor Hill: Nats AAA 2015

(Note; i’ve put in corrections as noted in the comments, striking out the incorrect text).

I’d expect this list to at least get cut in half; Kobernus and Hill seem likely to get some work with the Nats this year, and its just a matter of time before Soriano gets signed to fill out someone’s bullpen hole (like ours?).  The first 5 guys though … could be in trouble.   Hairston and Dobbs went the whole off-season w/o getting signed.  Schierholz didn’t make the Texas team and is a FA.  Frandsen is in the same boat after getting unconditionally released by the Nats, but quickly picked up a AAA deal with Houston.  Mattheus is off the 40-man but did make the Angels’ AAA team as a MLFA.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: too early to have a “story” really.  Maybe the story about how Ryan Mattheus‘ career basically cratered after he punched a wall with his pitching hand in May of 2013.  Or the story of Rafael Soriano‘s fall from grace in 2014 (first half: 0.97 ERA and talks of an All Star snub.  Second half?  6.48 ERA and being removed as closer).  But neither of those stories are really “fun.”

 

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2013 (5 Candidates):

Total Players used: 23 position, 21 pitchers, 44 total.  5/44 = 11.3% candidate ratio right now

Current Candidates

• Chad Tracy: MLFA signed w/ LA Angels for spring 2014, cut, retired 4/25/14
• Yunesky Maya; MLFA with Atlanta AAA for 2014, then went to Korea where he is in 2015.
• Chris Marrero: MLFA, signed w/ Baltimore AAA 2014, no stats for 2015 yet.
• Jhonatan Solano; Nats AA 2014, Miami AAA for 2015.
• Erik Davis; Nats AAA 2014 60 day D/L Tommy John surgery 2014, still on Nats D/L 2015

Updates since last post: Removed Nathan Karns (TB), Corey Brown (Boston),  Jeff Kobernus (Nats in 2014), Eury Perez (NYY).

At least three of these players may very well stay on the “Oblivion” list (the first three).  The last two seem like better candidates to eventually get off the list.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Yunesky Maya, who was Mike Rizzo‘s first foray into the Cuban exile market.  Signed to a 4yr/$8M deal, he was given several shots at the majors and never could capitalize.  He arrived in the US with a wide arsenal of pitches but not a lot of swing-and-miss talent, and he ended up basically being a AAA starter.   He spent the last three seasons as Syracuse’s lead starter (getting 22, 28 and 24 starts there in-between infrequent call-ups) and ended up with just one career MLB win for his $8M salary (making his one of the worst dollars-per-win contracts ever … even if it was “just” $8M).  This whole paragraph is assuming that Maya never makes it back to the majors … but based on what he’s shown thus far combined with his advancing age, that seems like a likely end-result for the Cuban starter.  As we speak, he has given up on minor league ball and has decamped for Korea, where he’s shown some good stats in limited appearances.

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2012 (5 candidates)

Total Players used: 24 position, 19 pitchers, 43 total.  5/43 = 11.6% candidate ratio right now

Candidates

• Brad Lidge: Retired post 2012
• Carlos Maldonado: Wash AAA 2013.  Not signed for 2014
• Ryan Perry: Wash AAA/AA 2013, 2014, released by Washington in 2014 and no subsequent appearances.
• Jesus Flores; signed ML deal with Los Angeles Dodgers for 2013, was with TB, KC for 2014, not signed for 2015
• Brett Carroll: signed ML deal w/ Pittsburgh for 2013, Tor for 2014.  Not signed for 2015

Updates in last 12 months: none; we removed several players from this list last year, but none since.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Brad Lidge, who gave it one last shot and failed spectacularly.  When you lose your stuff, its gone and gone fast.  I’ll readily admit I thought the signing was a great one when it occurred but it just didn’t work out.  I really hoped that Lidge would be a serviceable 7th inning guy and mentor to Drew Storen and Tyler Clippard, being one of the great closers of his day.  It didn’t work out that way: the Nats released him on June 25th and he hung ’em up.

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2011 (6 candidates)

Total Players used: 20 position, 24 pitchers, 44 total.  6/44 = 13.6% candidate ratio right now…

Candidates

• Ivan Rodriguez – retired after 2011; will appear on the 2017 Hall-of-Fame Ballot with 1st ballot stats but a PED cloud over his head.
• Matt Stairs — retired after 2011
• Alex Cora — retired after 2011, now the General Manager of a Puerto Rican Winter League team.
• Cole Kimball — Nats 60-day DL in 2012, XST in 2013, DFA’d off 40-man roster.  2014 indy, NYY AA team
• Brian Broderick — Stl AAA, waived now Nats AAA in 2012, AA in 2013.  Indy ball 2014, Kansas City AAA 2015
• Atahualpa Severino — Nats AAA, DFA’d off 40-man in 2012, signed w/ KC for 2013, Atl AAA in 2014, LAA AAA in 2015

Changes in the last 12 months: none.

A couple of these guys are still hanging on; with Broderick coming back to organized ball and Severino with his third straight MLFA signing with a new squad for 2015.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Matt Stairs: He made the 2011 roster despite having almost no defensive capabilities and, as it soon became evident, almost no remaining abilities at the plate.  He somehow hung onto his roster spot until August 1st despite having just one extra base hit in 74 at-bats on the year.  I remember one game in particular; we were at the stadium going against the hated Phillies and they left Roy Halladay in to attempt to finish a shutout with a 3-0 lead (Game was on 4/13/11).  Nats rally, score 2 runs to make it 3-2.  Stairs comes up pinch hitting for Jerry Hairston with guys on 1st and 2nd with one out; he promptly watches three straight fastballs go right down the middle of the plate without moving his bat.  I’ve never been so p*ssed at a player at the ball-park.  Fellow Nats-to-Oblivion candidate  Ivan Rodriguez then promptly struck out on 3 pitches as well, looking strike 3 into the mitt and then arguing vehemently with the ump over the game-ending call which gave Halladay the complete game victory.

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2010 (12 players)

Total Players used: 20 position, 26 pitchers, 46 total.  12/46 = 26.0% never appeared again

Players:

• Kevin Mench; retired after 2010
• Jamie Burke; retired after 2010
• Luis Atilano: in CIN org, AAA in 2012, never signed for 2013, out of baseball.
• Scott Olsen; in CWS org, AAA 2012, never signed for 2013, out of baseball.
• Tyler Walker; indy league 2011, never signed for 2012, out of baseball.
• Matt Chico; indy league 2012, never signed for 2013, out of baseball.
• Garrett Mock: Houston AAA 2012, AZ AAA for 2013.  Not signed for 2014
• Jason Bergmann: indy 2011, Col AAA 2012, Indy again in 2013, KC AA.  Not signed for 2014
• JD Martin; in MIA org AAA 2012, in TB AAA 2013, in Korea 2014
• Jesse English; indy league 2011, 2012.  Mexican League 2013, Indy ball 2014
• Joe Bisenius; in Mexico 2011-12, Atl AA/AAA 2013, indy/mexican league 2014
• Willy Taveras; played AAA for Col in 2011, retired prior to 2012, back with KC AAA 2013.  Mexican league 2014, 2015

Changes in last 12 months: none.

As far as I can tell, we’re down to just one player even on a 2015 roster, albeit its Taveras in the Mexican league.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Jamie Burke: The 2009 Nats were so thin at Catcher by the end of the season that we literally bought a spare catcher in Burke from Seattle so we could have some coverage at the end of the season.  Burke re-signed on for 2010 and appeared in exactly one MLB game.  He was released after the season and retired.

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2009 (9 players)

Total Players used: 25 position, 30 pitchers, 55 total.  9/55 = 16.3% never appeared again

Players:

• Elijah Dukes: released and never picked up for 2010.  Arrested in 2011, 2012, out of baseball.
• Alex Cintron; playing in Mexico 2012, nothing in 2013
• Jorge Padilla; in SD org, AAA in 2012, nothing in 2013
• Ron Villone, AAA all of 2010, 2011 playing indy ball, retired prior to 2012.  He was scheduled to appear on the 2015 Hall of Fame ballot but was removed for some reason.  Was a pitching coach for the Cubs organization; not sure where he is (if anywhere) for 2015.
• Julian Tavarez; retired after getting DFA’d in July 2009
• Mike Hinckley: Tor org in 2011, retired prior to 2012
• Steven Shell; KC org in 2011, retired prior to 2012
• Victor Garate; MIL org and Indy ball in 2012, Mexican league 2013, 2014.  Nowhere for 2015, yet…
• Zack Segovia; in Det org AA in 2012, Mexican league/Indy ball 2013, Mexican League 2014.  Nowhere for 2015, yet…

Changes in last 12 months: none.

Still a couple guys active in the Mexican league, possibly, for 2015.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Ron Villone, who proved that a crafty lefty with a halfway decent fastball can have a long career in this game.  He had 63 appearances at age 39 for the 2009 Nats and got re-signed for 2010.  He didn’t make the team though, labored in Syracuse the whole season and was released.  Despite being 41 years old, he headed to Indy ball for one last shot but washed out after just a few outings in 2011.

It wouldn’t be a retrospective on poor Nats players if we didn’t briefly talk about Elijah Dukes though.  I think its safe to assume that he’s the only guy on this list that has served more time in jail than has played in the minor leagues, attempting to get back to the show.

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2008 (8 players)

Total Players used: 25 position, 25 pitchers, 50 total.  8/50 = 16% never appeared again

Players:

• Kory Casto; 2009 AAA, 2010 in Ariz AA, retired.
• Dmitri Young: some rehab in low minors 2009, retired.
• Rob Mackowiak: 2009: some indy, bounced around AAA, that’s it.
• Johnny Estrada; quit after 2008 mid-season release.
• Odalis Perez; refused his 2009 contract, never resigned (see below)
• Levale Speigner; 2009 in Florida’s AA/AAA, then 2010 in Seattle AAA.  done.
• Ray King; retired after 2008
• Chris Schroder; 2009, 2010 bounced around AAA with Oakland, Fla.

Changes in last 12 months: none

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Odalis Perez, though I’m tempted to say either Mackowiak or Estrada, possibly the two worst FA signings of the whole Jim Bowden era (and that’s saying something).  But nothing beats the Perez story.  He was the Nats Opening Day Starter in 2008, and he was the first guy to get a start in the new Nationals Stadium.  He pitched decently enough; in 30 starts he was 7-12 with a 4.34 ERA and a 99 ERA+ for a god-awful team.  But apparently he got really pissed when the team only offered him a non-guaranteed Minor League deal for 2009.  So he held out, the Nats said “fine with us” and released him, and nobody else picked him up.  And he never played another game.  I’m not sure if that was a sign that he was just that bad (not one team wanted to even give an opening day starter a look the subsequent year?), or if there was some sort of MLB general manager omerta that conspired against him.  Either way, Perez played again, not even in Winter Leagues as far as I could find.  Sometimes a player has to swallow his pride, and Perez apparently could not.

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2007 (12 players)

Total Players used: 21 position, 26 pitchers, 47 total.  12/47 = 25.5% never appeared again

Players:

• Nook Logan; indy league 2008, 2010.
• Robert Fick: Cut from the Padres in ST 2008, full year indy league 2009, retired.
• D’Angelo Jimenez: AAA all of 2008, 2009.  Mexican league and Indy league 2010-2012
• Tony Batista: Wash AAA 2008, then released
• Michael Restovich: 2008 in Japan, AAA 2009-2011, retired
• Brandon Watson: AAA 2008-9, indy league 2011, retired.
• Mike Bacsik: 2008 AAA, 2011 indy league, now a broadcaster.
• Jason Simontacchi; 2008 indy league, 2010 again.
• John Patterson; cut in ST 2008, immediately signed w/ Texas but never played again.
• Ryan Wagner: AAA 2008-9, released and presumably retired.
• Arnie Munoz; went to mexican league, retired > 2010
• Chris Booker: AAA in 2008, then retired/released.

Changes in last 12 months: none

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Mike Bacsik, who was destined to be a career 4-A guy before Washington picked him up and gave him 20 starts in 2007.  Bacsik was on his 6th minor league organization when he arrived in Syracuse and pitched his way up to the major leagues.  He was overmatched badly; he had a 5.11 ERA and just a 3.4 K/9 rate.  But he did get his moment in the headlines by giving up Barry Bonds‘ 756th career homer one night in San Francisco in August.  Contrary to accusations on the topic, I do not believe Bacsik “served up” the homer.  If you check the play index, Bonds hit the 7th pitch of the at-bat in a 3-2 count for that homer.  Bacsik didn’t purposely give up a homer on the 7th pitch of an at-bat; he just ran out of pitches to show Bonds that weren’t going to get pulverized.

A quick comment though on John Patterson: I remember being absolutely shocked at his release in 2008’s spring training.  He was cut on 3/20/08, right in the middle of Spring Training with no warning and having just thrown his Grapefruit innings.   He was healthy, recovered from surgery, ready to be the ace of that staff and start showing off the potential that he showed in 2005 (you know, when he 4-hit the Dodgers with 13 punch outs and posted the best Game-Score performance in Nats history).  He signed a ML deal with Texas after his release by the Nats, but he couldn’t answer the call and never appeared again, getting released in mid May.  I guess his third arm surgery in 7 years just left him unable to compete at any level and he hung ’em up.

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2006 (20 players)

Total Players used: 28 position, 29 pitchers, 57 total.  20/57 = 35% never appeared again

• Damian Jackson; dnp 2007, indy league 2008-9
• Bernie Castro: AAA all of 2007, 8 then retired.
• Alex Escobar: Wash minors 2007-8, then retired.
• Brandon Harper: Wash AAA all of 2007, then released/retired.
• Wiki Gonzalez: CWS AAA all of 2007, indy league 2008, retired.
• Henry Mateo: AAA or Indy league 2007-2009, mexican league from 2010-current 2013
• George Lombard: AAA 2007-9, some indy league, retired.
• Mike Vento: 2007 Wash AAA, indy league 2008, back with Syracuse 2009, retired.
• Melvin Dorta; various minor leagues 2007-2010, indy league 2011, retired.
• Luis Matos: AAA 2007, Mexican League 2008-2012.  ? 2013
• Pedro Astacio; retired after 2006
• Felix Rodriguez: dnp 2007, indy league 2008-9, retired.
• Zach Day: AAA 2007, briefly A+ 2008, retired.
• Beltran Perez; wash minors AA/AAA 2007-8, released and never played again.
• Joey Eischen; released off of Washington and retired.
• Travis Hughes; AAA in 2007, played in Japan 2008, indy leagues 2009, 2011.
• Ryan Drese: various minor leagues 2007-8, indy league 2009-2010, Baltimore AAA 2011, released/retired.
• Kevin Gryboski: AAA 2007-2008, retired/released.
• Brett Campbell: Wash AA 2007, released/retired.
• Santiago Ramirez: Japan in 2007, Mexican league 2008, indy 2009, retired.

Changes in last 12 months: none

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Joey Eischen, who bounced around the league in his 20s before settling in Montreal and moving south with the team.  He was known to be a “character” in the clubhouse and to give good quotes to reporters (google “Joey Eischen quotes” and you’ll find some of his classics).   By 2006 though the years had taken their toll on his shoulder; he had 19 walks in 14 2/3 innings through the end of May had blown his rotator cuff.  The team put him on the 60 day D/L and called up Virginia-native Bill Bray.   Eischen never got off that D/L; he was released in the off-season and never played again. He has been a pitching coach in the Colorado system since 2010.

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2005 (16 players)

Total Players used: 30 position, 25 pitchers, 55 total.  16/55 = 29% never appeared again

Players:

• Carlos Baerga; retired after 2005
• Junior Spivey: bounced around AAA 2006-7, indy ball in 2009, retired.
• Tony Blanco; Nats minor leagues 2006-7, Colorado AA in 2008, in Japan from 2009-present.
• Wil Cordero; released mid 2005, signed on with the NY Mets but never made it out of AAA.  Retired after 2005.
• Deivi Cruz; released after 2005, cut from St. Louis 2006 ST, played indy ball, retired.
• Jeffrey Hammonds; retired in June 2005 mid-season.
• J.J. Davis: Traded to Colorado as part of the Preston Wilson deal, sent to Colorado’s AAA, then released after the season and never played again.
• Rick Short; Granted FA after the 2005 season to play in Japan, played there til 2009.
• Kenny Kelly; AAA in 2006 and 2007, released and retired.
• Keith Osik; a backup catcher, got 4 ABs in 2005, released and retired.
• Tyrell Godwin; after just THREE MLB at-bats in 2005, spent all of 2006 and 2007 in AAA, released and retired.
• T.J. Tucker; released after 2005, tried one year of indy ball in 2008, retired.
• Joe Horgan; released after 2005, played one year of AAA with Florida, released, retired.
• Matt White; AAA in 2006-7, Japan 2007-8, tried indy ball in 2010, hung ’em up.
• C.J. Nitkowski; AAA in 2006, then went to Japan 2007-8, Korea 2009-10, back with the Mets AAA team in July 2012.  Not signed for 2013
• Antonio Osuna: dnp in 2006, Mexican league 2007-9.

Changes in last 12 months: none

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Rick Short, who got his MLB debut at the age of 32, after 11 very long seasons in the minors with many different teams.  He got a couple of call-ups in June and July to provide cover, and then played out the string after a Sept 1 roster expansion call-up.  In that off-season, he returned to Japan (where he’d played one full season prior), and played four more years in the Japanese League and retired in 2009.

Though it merits talking about a couple other guys here. Tony Blanco; he was a rule-5 draftee who the Nats carried the whole of 2005 so they could keep his rights.  He was awful; he had a .177 batting average as the 25th guy off the bench.  In 2006 he couldn’t even cut it in AA and played most of the year in High-A.  After 2007 the Nats summarily released him from their minor league organization altogether.   He found his calling though; he signed on in Japan in 2009 at age 27 and continues to play there today.  You have to wonder if he may very well earn another MLB shot.

Jeffrey Hammonds was well known to Washington baseball fans by virtue of his pedigree with our northern neighbors in Baltimore; he was a 1st round draft pick in 1992 out of Stanford, broke in with the MLB team the following year and was a role player on the powerhouse Baltimore teams of the mid 1990s.   He bounced around the league afterwards though, signing on with the newly relocated Washington franchise for the 2005 debut season but he hung ’em up after a slow start here.  He was only 34 when he retired.

How do you go from being the 5th most important pitcher on a MLB staff (yes, I believe the 5th starter is more important than the closer or any other bullpen guy, a statsitical fact that can be easily seen by WAR contributions by even the best closers), to being the least important, aka the last guy out of the pen, the swingman or long man, the mop-up guy?

Well, that’s what’s happening to Ross Detwiler so far this year.

Now, its sort of hard to feel a ton of compassion for a guy who is making $3M this year guaranteed, whether he pitches 50 times or five.   So this article isn’t so much about Detwiler or his salary, but about things like “opportunity costs” and the relative value of players in particular roles, and how teams can turn replaceable assets into needed depth.

Coming into this season, I figured (along with many) that Detwiler’s pre-injury 2013 performance, coupled with his break-out 2012 season would earn him the 5th rotation spot.  As it turned out, not only did the team not want to give him that spot … but they have repeatedly passed over Detwiler to make starts when the opportunity has arisen.  When Doug Fister went down with injury, Detwiler wasn’t pulled back into the rotation; the starts were given to Taylor Jordan.  When Jordan proved unreliable and was sent down, the team called up Blake Treinen and gave him a spot start on 5/6/14 instead of throwing Detwiler.

Which makes you wonder; what’s the point of keeping a high-priced/high-talent “swing man” if you never let him do his role??  Detwiler’s usage so far in 2014 has been more like a middle reliever than a long-man; in 9 appearances (before last night) he’s logged 14 2/3 innings.  Now, on the one hand this is a relatively good sign; if you’re never using your swing-man for 4 inning stints it means your starters are pitching well.  But on the other hand … the team is clearly wasting Detwiler’s talents.  Of the 66 batters he had faced prior to 5/6/14’s debacle, only SIX of them were classified as “high leverage” situations by baseball-reference.com.  He’s being used as a mop-up guy.

You don’t use power lefty capable starters as mop-up guys.  Its a waste of their skills and talent, and ends up leading to human-nature meltdowns like we saw out of Detwiler on 5/6/14.

Here’s a quick history of the Nats longmen in recent years: Ross Ohlendorf, Zach Duke, Tanner Roark (to some extent in late 2013), Tom Gorzelanny, Miguel Batista, Saul Rivera (to some extent), Stephen Shell, Micah Bowie and Levale Speigner (though honestly, dipping back into the 2007-2008 timeframe is tough because our starters were so bad, it was difficult to find who the designated “long-man” really was because eventually they were starting too).  There’s common features to most all of these guys: they’re generally either veterans signed to MLFA deals or on one year deals for limited money, or they’re rookies who earned their way up and provided some value.  The point is this;  you don’t pay your long-man good money, and you certainly don’t waste a good former starter in the long-man position.

The missed opportunity cost for the Nats is this: they can turn Detwiler into something of value in trade for some other team out there, right now.  Go look at our favorite trade partner Oakland’s #4 and #5 starters stats (Straily and Milone); we could move Detwiler to Oakland and get something of use back in a heartbeat and it’d make both teams better.   The Yankees would kill for a reliable 5th starter right now, with Pineda hurt or suspended, Nova lost to Tommy John and Nuno ineffective.   The Mariners are now 9-deep into their starter depth chart and are treading water.   I’ll bet you couldn’t even name Pittsburgh’s 5th starter right now.   Cincinnati’s two starters down right now and that’s before Johnny Cueto gets his inevitable D/L trip (he made 3 such trips last year).  So there’s definitely teams out there who expect to contend with starter depth issues.

Meanwhile, the Nats have 4 or 5 guys in AAA right now who could fill the role that Detwiler is playing right now, for less money and just as well, and we’d be a better team with Detwiler’s return in trade for it.   Every additional injury further thins this team and highlights more need for backup hitters (right now as we speak, we don’t have a SINGLE middle infielder on the 40-man who could get called-up to cover … and our only two out-field 40-man options Eury Perez and Michael Taylor are basically a pinch runner and a guy who’se got a month above A-ball.   (Admittedly, this situation has somewhat cleared up recently with Hairston‘s return and considering that we also have Souza and Moore back in the minors … but we still need some depth).

Move Detwiler, get some closer-to-the-majors bats, and install Treinen as that last-guy in the bullpen.  Or call back Aaron Barrett or Ryan Mattheus and just leave t hem in the bullpen instead of making them rack up frequent flier miles.  If you want another lefty, re-call Aaron Laffey and/or Xavier Cedeno and leave them on the club for a while.  You don’t need your best prospect pitching mop-up/low-leverage innings in 8-0 games.

(I’m not the only one talking about this right now: WP’s James Wagner has peppered Matt Williams about it and MLBTradeRumors Jeff Todd mentioned it prominently this week as well).

Several years ago (November 2010) Mark Zuckerman posted a fascinating analysis he titled “From Nats to Oblivion.”  It chronicled the astoundingly high number of players that the early incarnations of the Nats were using who, once the Nats released them, never again appeared on a MLB roster.  I thought the analysis was so interesting that I kept up the same data and have been keeping it up-to-date with the whereabouts of Nats-to-Oblivion candidates ever since.  So with apologies to Zuckerman for stealing his idea, here’s an interesting visit to the Nats darker past.

A large part of this post is borrowed from previous versions; click here for 2012’s version of this post.   A few players from our near past have re-surfaced in the majors as of late and have been removed from this list where noted; if you see any others listed here in error please let me know.  But this entire list is updated post 2013 season, with the minor league/foreign league/independent league movements of oblivion candidates chronicled.

It is nearly impossible for a team to field an entire year’s worth of players who will not fall into this “Oblivion” category.  Every MLB team has guys playing out the string or near retirement, and every MLB team calls up guys through out the season from the minors who eventually show themselves as unable to compete on the MLB level and who never make it back.  So a 0% oblivion measure isn’t a goal.

For your reminiscing pleasure, here is the summary data updated to the 2013 team:

• 2012: 24 position, 19 pitchers, 43 total.  5/43 = 11.6% candidate ratio
• 2011: 20 position, 24 pitchers, 44 total.  6/44 = 13.6% candidate ratio
• 2010: 20 position, 26 pitchers, 46 total.  12/46 = 26.0% never appeared again
• 2009: 25 position, 30 pitchers, 55 total.  9/55 = 16.3% never appeared again
• 2008: 25 position, 25 pitchers, 50 total.  8/50 = 16% never appeared again
• 2007: 21 position, 26 pitchers, 47 total.  12/47 = 25.5% never appeared again
• 2006: 28 position, 29 pitchers, 57 total.  20/57 = 35% never appeared again
• 2005: 30 position, 25 pitchers, 55 total.  16/55 = 29% never appeared again

Look at the 2006 season; 35% of the players who played for the team that year never played another Major League game.  That’s still astounding to me.  Read on for a detailed look back at some of the very bad players that have put in significant time for this team.

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2013 (13 Candidates):

Total Players used: 23 position, 21 pitchers, 44 total. 13/44 = 29.5% candidate ratio right now.  Real candidates list is just the top 5, so 5/44 = 11.36%.

Candidates

• Yunesky Maya; ML deal with Atlanta for 2014
• Chris Marrrero: ML deal with Baltimore for 2014
• Chad Tracy: still a FA; highly unlikely to get a major league deal after his awful 2013.
• Corey Brown: DFA’d, traded to Oakland
• Fernando Abad; DFA’d, traded to Oakland

Less likely “candidates” from the 2013 team:

• Danny Espinosa
• Jhonatan Solano
• Jeff Kobernus
• Zach Walters
• Eury Perez
• Sandy Leon
• Nathan Karns
• Erik Davis

The top 5 players are really the “candidates” out of the 2013 team.  Every one of the guys in the lower section is on our 40-man roster, meaning they all likely see time this coming season.  In fact, right now the odds are that at least a couple of these guys will make the opening day roster.  So really the oblivion candidates here are just the top 5 guys, but we’ll track all 13 until they’re cleared off this list.  Both the guys we traded to Oakland sit on their 40-man roster, but both seem in serious jeopardy of being DFA’d again at some point in the spring (especially Corey Brown, who is out of options).

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Yunesky Maya, who was Mike Rizzo‘s first foray into the Cuban exile market.  Signed to a 4yr/$8M deal, he was given several shots at the majors and never could capitalize.  He arrived in the US with a wide arsenal of pitches but not a lot of swing-and-miss talent, and he ended up basically being a AAA starter.   He spent the last three seasons as Syracuse’s lead starter (getting 22, 28 and 24 starts there inbetween infrequent call-ups) and ended up with just one career MLB win for his $8M salary (making his one of the worst dollars-per-win contracts ever … even if it was “just” $8M).  This whole paragraph is assuming that Maya never makes it back to the majors … but based on what he’s shown thus far combined with his advancing age, that seems like a likely end-result for the Cuban starter.

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2012 (5 candidates)

Total Players used: 24 position, 19 pitchers, 43 total.  5/43 = 11.6% candidate ratio right now

Candidates

• Brad Lidge: Retired post 2012

• Jesus Flores; signed ML deal with Los Angeles Dodgers for 2013, no MLB appearances

• Brett Carroll: signed ML deal w/ Pittsburgh for 2013, no MLB appearances

• Ryan Perry: Wash AAA and AA 2013

• Carlos Maldonado: Wash AAA 2013

In the past 12 months, we’ve removed 3 players from this list (Izturas, Wang and Brown) who re-appeared on MLB rosters either here or elsewhere.  I still think its possible that Flores could re-appear on an MLB roster at some point; catchers have a way of getting hurt and causing organizations to scramble.  The rest face pretty long odds.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Brad Lidge, who gave it one last shot and failed spectacularly.  When you lose your stuff, its gone and gone fast.  I’ll readily admit I thought the signing was a great one when it occurred but it just didn’t work out.  I really hoped that Lidge would be a serviceable 7th inning guy and mentor to Drew Storen and Tyler Clippard, being one of the great closers of his day.  It didn’t work out that way.

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2011 (6 candidates)

Total Players used: 20 position, 24 pitchers, 44 total.  6/44 = 13.6% candidate ratio right now…

Candidates

• Ivan Rodriguez – retired after 2011
• Matt Stairs — retired after 2011
• Alex Cora — retired after 2011, now the General Manager of a Puerto Rican Winter League team.
• Cole Kimball — Nats 60-day DL in 2012, XST in 2013, DFA’d off 40-man roster.
• Brian Broderick — Stl AAA, waived now Nats AAA in 2012, AA in 2013
• Atahualpa Severino — Nats AAA, DFA’d off 40-man in 2012, KC AAA for 2013, signed ML deal with Atlanta for 2014 (thanks John C).

Changes in the last 12 months: none.

As with the 2012 candidates, I wouldn’t be surprised to see this list get lowered by one eventually; Severino seems like he could work his way back into a loogy situation for a club.  Kimball’s DFA and Broderick’s pending MLFA status both make it seem like their chances of returning to the majors are slim.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Matt Stairs: He made the 2011 roster despite having almost no defensive capabilities and, as it soon became evident, almost no remaining abilities at the plate.  He somehow hung onto his roster spot until August 1st despite having just one extra base hit in 74 at-bats on the year.  I remember one game in particular; we were at the stadium going against the hated Phillies and they left Roy Halladay in to attempt to finish a shutout with a 3-0 lead (Game was on 4/13/11).  Nats rally, score 2 runs to make it 3-2.  Stairs comes up pinch hitting for Jerry Hairston with guys on 1st and 2nd with one out; he promptly watches three straight fastballs go right down the middle of the plate without moving his bat.  I’ve never been so p*ssed at a player at the ball-park.  Ivan Rodriguez then promptly struck out on 3 pitches as well, looking strike 3 into the mitt and then arguing vehimently with the ump over the game-ending call which gave Halladay the complete game victory.

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2010 (12 players)

Total Players used: 20 position, 26 pitchers, 46 total.  12/46 = 26.0% never appeared again

Players:

• Willy Taveras; played AAA for Col in 2011, retired prior to 2012, back with KC AAA 2013
• Kevin Mench; retired after 2010
• Jamie Burke; retired after 2010
• Luis Atilano: in CIN org, AAA in 2012, never signed for 2013
• Scott Olsen; in CWS org, AAA 2012, never signed for 2013
• JD Martin; in MIA org AAA 2012, in TB AAA 2013
• Tyler Walker; indy league 2011, never signed for 2012
• Jesse English; indy league 2011, 2012.  Mexican League 2013
• Matt Chico; indy league 2012, never signed for 2013
• Joe Bisenius; in Mexico 2011-12, Atlanta AA/AAA for 2013
• Garrett Mock: Houston AAA 2012, AZ AAA for 2013
• Jason Bergmann: indy 2011, Col AAA 2012, Indy again in 2013, KC AA team.

Changes in last 12 months: none.

There’s more than a few guys here who are still hanging on to AAA jobs but not many of them are looking promising to break onto 40-man rosters and earn call-ups.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Jamie Burke: The 2009 Nats were so thin at Catcher by the end of the season that we literally bought a spare catcher in Burke from Seattle so we could have some coverage at the end of the season.  Burke re-signed on for 2010 and appeared in exactly one MLB game.  He was released after the season and retired.

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2009 (9 players)

Total Players used: 25 position, 30 pitchers, 55 total.  9/55 = 16.3% never appeared again

Players:

• Elijah Dukes: released and never picked up for 2010.  Arrested in 2011, 2012, out of baseball.

• Alex Cintron; playing in Mexico 2012, nothing in 2013

• Jorge Padilla; in SD org, AAA in 2012, nothing in 2013

• Ron Villone, AAA all of 2010, 2011 playing indy ball, retired prior to 2012.  He will appear on the 2015 Hall of Fame ballot and is currently the pitching coach of the High-A Chicago affilliate.

• Julian Tavarez; retired after getting DFA’d in July 2009

• Zack Segovia; in Det org AA in 2012, Mexican league/Indy ball 2013

• Mike Hinckley: Tor org in 2011, retired prior to 2012

• Steven Shell; KC org in 2011, retired prior to 2012

• Victor Garate; MIL org and Indy ball in 2012, Mexican league 2013

Changes in last 12 months: removed Kensing and Martis after they both resurfaced on MLB teams, meaning that they both went three full seasons inbetween MLB appearances.  That’s why we track these guys for so long.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Ron Villone, who proved that a crafty lefty with a halfway decent fastball can have a long career in this game.  He had 63 appearances at age 39 for the 2009 Nats and got re-signed for 2010.  He didn’t make the team though, labored in Syracuse the whole season and was released.  Despite being 41 years old, he headed to Indy ball for one last shot but washed out after just a few outings in 2011.

It wouldn’t be a retrospective on poor Nats players if we didn’t briefly talk about Elijah Dukes though.  I think its safe to assume that he’s the only guy on this list that has served more time in jail than has played in the minor leagues, attempting to get back to the show.

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2008 (8 players)

Total Players used: 25 position, 25 pitchers, 50 total.  8/50 = 16% never appeared again

Players:

• Kory Casto; 2009 AAA, 2010 in Ariz AA, retired.
• Dmitri Young: some rehab in low minors 2009, retired.
• Rob Mackowiak: 2009: some indy, bounced around AAA, that’s it.
• Johnny Estrada; flat out quit after 2008
• Odalis Perez; refused his 2009 contract, never resigned
• Levale Speigner; 2009 in Florida’s AA/AAA, then 2010 in Seattle AAA.  done.
• Ray King; retired after 2008
• Chris Schroder; 2009, 2010 bounced around AAA with Oakland, Fla.

Changes in last 12 months: none

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Odalis Perez, though I’m tempted to say either Mackowiak or Estrada, possibly the two worst FA signings of the whole Jim Bowden era (and that’s saying something).  But nothing beats the Perez story.  He was the Nats Opening Day Starter in 2008; hell he was the first guy to get a start in the Nationals Stadium.  He pitched well; in 30 starts he was 7-12 with a 4.34 ERA and a 99 ERA+ for a god-awful team.  But apparently he got really pissed when the team only offered him a non-guaranteed Minor League deal for 2009.  So he held out, the Nats said “fine with us” and released him, and nobody else picked him up.  And he never played another game.  I’m not sure if that was a sign that he was just that bad (not one team wanted to even give an opening day starter a look the subsequent year?), or if there was some sort of MLB general manager omerta that conspired against him.  Either way, Perez played again, not even in Winter Leagues as far as I could find.  Sometimes a player has to swallow his pride, and Perez apparently could not.

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2007 (12 players)

Total Players used: 21 position, 26 pitchers, 47 total.  12/47 = 25.5% never appeared again

Players:

• Nook Logan; indy league 2008, 2010.
• Robert Fick: Cut from the Padres in ST 2008, full year indy league 2009, retired.
• D’Angelo Jimenez: AAA all of 2008, 2009.  Mexican league and Indy league 2010-2012
• Tony Batista: Wash AAA 2008, then released
• Michael Restovich: 2008 in Japan, AAA 2009-2011, retired
• Brandon Watson: AAA 2008-9, indy league 2011, retired.
• Mike Bacsik: 2008 AAA, 2011 indy league, now a broadcaster.
• Jason Simontacchi; 2008 indy league, 2010 again.
• John Patterson; cut in ST 2008, immediately signed w/ Texas but never played again.
• Ryan Wagner: AAA 2008-9, released and presumably retired.
• Arnie Munoz; went to mexican league, retired > 2010
• Chris Booker: AAA in 2008, then retired/released.

Changes in last 12 months: none

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Mike Bacsik, who was destined to be a career 4-A guy before Washington picked him up and gave him 20 starts in 2007.  Bacsik was on his 6th minor league organization when he arrived in Syracuse and pitched his way up to the major leagues.  He was overmatched badly; he had a 5.11 ERA and just a 3.4 K/9 rate.  But he did get his moment in the headlines by giving up Barry Bonds‘ 756th career homer one night in San Francisco in August.  Contrary to accusations on the topic, I do not believe Bacsik “served up” the homer.  If you check the play index, Bonds hit the 7th pitch of the at-bat in a 3-2 count for that homer.  Bacsik didn’t purposely give up a homer on the 7th pitch of an at-bat; he just ran out of pitches to show Bonds that weren’t going to get pulverized.

A quick comment though on John Patterson: I remember being absolutely shocked at his release in 2008’s spring training.  He was cut on 3/20/08, right in the middle of Spring Training with no warning and having just thrown his Grapefruit innings.   He was healthy, recovered from surgery, ready to be the ace of that staff and start showing off the potential that he showed in 2005 (you know, when he 4-hit the Dodgers with 13 punch outs and posted the best Game-Score performance in Nats history).  He signed a ML deal with Texas after his release by the Nats, but he couldn’t answer the call and never appeared again, getting released in mid May.  I guess his third arm surgery in 7 years just left him unable to compete at any level and he hung ’em up.

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2006 (20 players)

Total Players used: 28 position, 29 pitchers, 57 total.  20/57 = 35% never appeared again

• Damian Jackson; dnp 2007, indy league 2008-9
• Bernie Castro: AAA all of 2007, 8 then retired.
• Alex Escobar: Wash minors 2007-8, then retired.
• Brandon Harper: Wash AAA all of 2007, then released/retired.
• Wiki Gonzalez: CWS AAA all of 2007, indy league 2008, retired.
• Henry Mateo: AAA or Indy league 2007-2009, mexican league from 2010-current 2013
• George Lombard: AAA 2007-9, some indy league, retired.
• Mike Vento: 2007 Wash AAA, indy league 2008, back with Syracuse 2009, retired.
• Melvin Dorta; various minor leagues 2007-2010, indy league 2011, retired.
• Luis Matos: AAA 2007, Mexican League 2008-2012.  ? 2013
• Pedro Astacio; retired after 2006
• Felix Rodriguez: dnp 2007, indy league 2008-9, retired.
• Zach Day: AAA 2007, briefly A+ 2008, retired.
• Beltran Perez; wash minors AA/AAA 2007-8, released and never played again.
• Joey Eischen; released off of Washington and retired.
• Travis Hughes; AAA in 2007, played in Japan 2008, indy leagues 2009, 2011.
• Ryan Drese: various minor leagues 2007-8, indy league 2009-2010, Baltimore AAA 2011, released/retired.
• Kevin Gryboski: AAA 2007-2008, retired/released.
• Brett Campbell: Wash AA 2007, released/retired.
• Santiago Ramirez: Japan in 2007, Mexican league 2008, indy 2009, retired.

Changes in last 12 months: none

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Joey Eischen, who bounced around the league in his 20s before settling in Montreal and moving south with the team.  He was known to be a “character” in the clubhouse and to give good quotes to reporters (google “Joey eischen quotes” and you’ll find some of his classics).   By 2006 though the years had taken their toll on his shoulder; he had 19 walks in 14 2/3 innings through the end of May had blown his rotator cuff.  The team put him on the 60 day D/L and called up one Bill Bray.   Eischen never got off that D/L; he was released in the off-season and never played again.  For 2013, he’s listed as the pitching coach of Colorado’s high-A Affiliate in Asheville.

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2005 (16 players)

Total Players used: 30 position, 25 pitchers, 55 total.  16/55 = 29% never appeared again

Players:

• Carlos Baerga; retired after 2005
• Junior Spivey: bounced around AAA 2006-7, indy ball in 2009, retired.
• Tony Blanco; Nats minor leagues 2006-7, Colorado AA in 2008, in Japan from 2009-present.
• Wil Cordero; released mid 2005, signed on with the NY Mets but never made it out of AAA.  Retired after 2005.
• Deivi Cruz; released after 2005, cut from St. Louis 2006 ST, played indy ball, retired.
• Jeffrey Hammonds; retired in June 2005 mid-season.
• J.J. Davis: Traded to Colorado as part of the Preston Wilson deal, sent to Colorado’s AAA, then released after the season and never played again.
• Rick Short; Granted FA after the 2005 season to play in Japan, played there til 2009.
• Kenny Kelly; AAA in 2006 and 2007, released and retired.
• Keith Osik; a backup catcher, got 4 ABs in 2005, released and retired.
• Tyrell Godwin; after just THREE MLB at-bats in 2005, spent all of 2006 and 2007 in AAA, released and retired.
• T.J. Tucker; released after 2005, tried one year of indy ball in 2008, retired.
• Joe Horgan; released after 2005, played one year of AAA with Florida, released, retired.
• Matt White; AAA in 2006-7, Japan 2007-8, tried indy ball in 2010, hung ’em up.
• C.J. Nitkowski; AAA in 2006, then went to Japan 2007-8, Korea 2009-10, back with the Mets AAA team in July 2012.  Not signed for 2013
• Antonio Osuna: dnp in 2006, Mexican league 2007-9.

Changes in last 12 months: none

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Rick Short, who got his MLB debut at the age of 32, after 11 very long seasons in the minors with many different teams.  He got a couple of call-ups in June and July to provide cover, and then played out the string after a Sept 1 roster expansion call-up.  In that off-season, he returned to Japan (where he’d played one full season prior), and played four more years in the Japanese League and retired in 2009.

Though it merits talking about a couple other guys here. Tony Blanco; he was a rule-5 draftee who the Nats carried the whole of 2005 so they could keep his rights.  He was awful; he had a .177 batting average as the 25th guy off the bench.  In 2006 he couldn’t even cut it in AA and played most of the year in High-A.  After 2007 the Nats summarily released him from their minor league organization altogether.   He found his calling though; he signed on in Japan in 2009 at age 27 and continues to play there today.  You have to wonder if he may very well earn another MLB shot.

Jeffrey Hammonds was well known to Washington baseball fans by virtue of his pedigree with our northern neighbors in Baltimore; he was a 1st round draft pick in 1992 out of Stanford, broke in with the MLB team the following year and was a role player on the powerhouse Baltimore teams of the mid 1990s.   He bounced around the league afterwards though, signing on with the newly relocated Washington franchise for the 2005 debut season but he hung ’em up after a slow start here.  He was only 34 when he retired.

(I should have published this in early December but got caught up in a glut of other posts; posting this now in lieu of just trashing it).

The Nats for years were heavy participants in the Rule-5 draft, thanks to some pretty awful teams and some shrewd scouting.  In November 2011 I did a Rule-5 Draft history, and I thought I’d update it for the last few drafts, now that 2013’s draft is complete.  Borrowing a chunk of the text for the previous years from the previous post, here’s a list of the Rule 5 drafts since 2005, with our players taken/received noted and with some thoughts on how the player turned out for either side.  Note I’m mostly only doing this analysis for the major league section of the rule 5 draft; there’s just far too little eventual MLB success to be found in the AAA and AA sections of the Rule 5 draft to do the analysis.  I will note some notables who get snapped up in the minor league section for the later years.

2004 Rule 5 Draft (ahead of the 2005 season)

• Tony Blanco: 1B; drafted from Cincinnati.  He batted .177 as a 1st baseman backup while eating a roster spot all season, then we cut him from AAA after 2007.  He kicked around Colorado’s system for a year and has been playing in Japan ever since.  Verdict: failure.
• Tyrell Godwin: CF, drafted from Toronto.  Prior to the 2005 season, the team traded another minor leaguer to keep his rights, so this really played out less like a Rule-5 pickup in that Godwin didn’t have to stick on the 25-man roster all year.  He played a grand total of 3 games for the Nats, kicked around AAA for a while an hung them up in 2007.  Verdict: failure.

2005 Rule 5 Draft

The Nats did not draft anyone, but had a player taken who went on a whirlwind tour of MLB organizations before getting returned mid 2006.

• Chris Booker was rule-5 drafted by Detroit, who immediately sold him to Philadelphia, who then waived him in May of 2006 with the intent of returning him … except that Kansas City picked him up, hung onto him for a couple months and eventually returned him to Washington.  The Nats eventually called him up but he was relatively ineffective and he washed out of the game (seemingly due to injuries) after 2008.

2006 Rule 5 Draft

• Jesus Flores, C, drafted from the New York Mets, stuck with the team all year despite having only played high-A ball in the minors.  Despite his eventual injury issues that plagued him for the better part of 3 seasons, Flores remains the best example of a “found gold” prospect that can be had in the Rule 5 draft.   After the Nats DFA’d him last off-season, he bounced around both LA and Tampa’s AAA teams in 2013 but did not appear in the majors. Verdict: success.
• Levale Speigner RHP (a closer) was drafted from Minnesota and, as with Booker above, eventually was traded for by the Nats so they could keep him and stash him in the minors.  After some awful outings for the big team, he passed through waivers mid 2008 and was released from AAA in 2008, bounced around a couple other organizations, and retired after 2010.  Verdict: failure.

The Nats lost one player in this draft:

• Alejandro Machada was drafted by Minnesota just a month after the Nats had re-signed him to a minor league contract.  So Machada didn’t have to stay on their active roster.  And indeed he didn’t; he was injured all of 2007 and stayed with Minnesota’s AAA team until 2009, never again broaching the majors.

2007 Rule 5 Draft

• Matt Whitney: 1B/3B, Drafted and then eventually returned back to Cleveland, who eventually made the former 1st rounder a ML free agent and we signed him after the 2008 season.   We cut him after the 2009 season and he retired after 2010.  Verdict: failure.
• Garrett Guzman: LF/RF: after Rule-5 selecting him, the team eventually traded a PTBNL for him to Minnesota, then we cut him outright and nobody picked him up.  He played two years of Independent ball and was out of baseball after 2010.  Guzman is more infamously known as the player who was caught having sex with an underage girl while playing for our AA team in Harrisburg in 2008, likely the reason why nobody picked him up after his DFA.  Verdict: failure.

The Nats lost one player of note in the minor league phase in this draft:

• Brett Campbell was drafted by Milwaukee in the AAA phase of the rule-5 draft.  Milwaukee released him in spring training of the subsequent 2008 season and Campbell never played another inning of pro baseball.  This seems especially odd to me: he was drafted in 2004 and rose all the way through the Nats system to debut in the majors by Sept of 2006.  He pitched in just two games in 2006, and returned to the minors in 2007.  Was he hurt?  He was only 26 when he apparently hung them up.  Oddity.

2008 Rule 5 Draft

• Terrell Young: Drafted with the #1 pick in the Rule 5 draft from Cincinnati.  He got hurt, never played for us, and was eventually returned to the Reds.   His injury was severe enough that he was out of baseball after being drafted; he has no professional games after 2008.  Verdict: failure.
• Ricardo Nanita, selected in the minor league phase, played most of 2009, then went to the Mexican league, then got picked up by Toronto in minor league free agency and has been there ever since, playing all of 2013 in Buffalo.   Verdict: failure.

The team lost two players in the minor league phase:

• RHP Luis Ortega to Royals was picked up off the Nats rookie squad, pitched one more season for Kansas City’s rookie squad and was cut.
• RHP Josh Perrault was picked up by the Orioles, who bounced him around their farm system for a couple of years before he retired in 2010.

2009 Rule 5 Draft

• Jamie Hoffman; OF, Drafted with the #1 pick in the Rule 5 draft from Los Angeles Dodgers and immediately traded for Brian Bruney in a pre-arranged deal.  NY returned him to the Dodgers later that spring.   Bruney, meanwhile, immediately went to arbitration and lost with the team in the spring of 2010, was awful out of the gate, and the team outright released him before the end of May.   Verdict: failure, all the way around this transaction.

The team lost one player in this draft:

• Zech Zinicola was drafted away from us by Toronto, who eventually returned him to the Nats without any Toronto appearances.  His selection was probably due to Dana Brown‘s hiring in Toronto, going from Washington’s Scouting Director to being a special assistant to the GM in Toronto.  Zinicola remained in our farm system until 2013, when he was released.

2010 Rule 5 Draft

• Elvin Ramirez, RH reliever, drafted from the New York Mets: he was injured in spring training and spent the entirety of the season on the DL.  Interestingly, the team returned him to New York in October, long before they needed to, and with New York this year he made his way to the majors for some appearances.  If the team drafted him, why not keep him through spring training of 2012 to see if he was worth keeping?  It just seemed odd to give up on the draft pick while procedurally you could still keep him.  Verdict: failure.
• Brian Broderick, RH Starting Pitcher, Drafted from St. Louis and stuck into the 2011′s bullpen as the long-man/mop-up guy.  He was awful, he was costing the team wins, and was eventually returned to St. Louis before May was out.   However, St. Louis waived him towards the end of 2012 and we picked him back up.  I projected him to be one of our AAA starters in 2013 but he struggled and ended the season in AA and likely will be cut loose this off-season. Verdict: failure.

The team lost one player in the 2010 draft:

• The Phillies drafted Michael Martinez away from the Nats, and he stuck on their roster as a backup middle infielder.  His batting lines are awful though, and the Nats clearly had depth at middle infield at the time, so losing this player was not that big of a deal.  Even now, with his career .187 batting line, he couldn’t have helped us.

2011 Rule 5 Draft

The Nats did not take anyone for the first time in years, but had two players themselves taken.  Neither player drafted was a surprise; I posted at the time that I thought both these players should have been protected.

• Brad Meyers (RH starting pitcher) was drafted by the New York Yankees, but he suffered an injury in spring training and was DL’d all year.  He was returned to the Nats and subsequently missed all of 2013 too.  I listed him as a “release candidate” in my 2014 rotation projections, not knowing if he’s healthy or if he can win a AAA rotation spot at this point with the talent we have matriculating upwards.
• Erik Komatsu was drafted by St. Louis (in retaliation for our taking Broderick the previous year?), made their 2012 opening day roster, played for a while before being waived, got picked up by Minnesota, and by Memorial Day was returned to Washington in a whirlwind set of transactions.  I think he remains a minor league caliber player, with too little offense for a corner outfield position but not enough speed to play center.

2012 Rule 5 Draft

Again, the team did not select anyone but got poached for four players in the major and minor phase.

• LHP Danny Rosenbaum was drafted by Colorado to take part in their unique rotation experiment (where guys work up to a certain pitch count each night).  Rosenbaum didn’t make the Rockie’s pitching staff out of spring training (somewhat an indictment of Rosenbaum’s skills; Colorado’s rotation was one of the worst in the majors in 2013) and he was returned to Nats.  As most readers here know, Rosenbaum toiled in AAA a full season, putting up good but not great numbers, and seems like he’s destined to repeat that season for us again in 2014.
• Utility player Jeff Kobernus was drafted by the Boston Red Sox, traded to Tigers and then eventually returned to Nats.  Kobernus turned out to be quite the speedster, stealing nearly a base every other game in the minors and earned a call-up to the big team in 2013.  At this point the team must feel relatively lucky to have gotten Kobernus back, given his call-up and possible future role as a backup.
• In the minor league phase, Nats draft bust Jack McGeary was taken by the Red Sox.  He threw 21 ineffective innings in short-A and low-A for Boston in 2013.  He’s from Boston, so it was a nice gesture, but it just doesn’t look like he’s ever going to recover from his arm issues.  Hey, at least he got his Stanford education and his bonus money.
• The Dodgers poached Hector Nelo from the Nats AA team and stuck him on their own AA team … where he promptly made the all-star game again and had another excellent season.  I’ll be honest; I do not know the minor league rule-5 protection rules, but I wonder why an all-star player was exposed, no matter what his age.

2013 Rule 5 Draft

Once again, the team did not select anyone in the major league phase.  We did lose one player in the MLB phase:

• C Adrian Nieto was the 2nd overall pick in the major league phase, by the Chicago White Sox.  As commenters noted though, it seemed like an odd pick for the White Sox, who have a couple of younger developing catchers in their system.  Meanwhile Nieto has never played above A-ball but did  hit .285/.373/.449 this season.  Those are pretty good numbers for a catcher … even if he’s an old 24 in A-Ball.  I speculated in the comments of other posts that perhaps the White Sox just needed some catching help during the split squad games in 2014’s spring training, because the odds of Nieto sticking on a MLB roster for a full year seem incredibly slim.  I didn’t even mention him in my own pre-Rule5 analysis piece for all of this reasoning.  Its hard not to see him getting returned to the Nats by April 1st.

In the minor league phase, the Nats took a couple of players for organizational depth: Theo Bowe, a AA outfielder from Cincinnati and Martires Arias, a low-A right-hander from the New York Mets.  As mentioned above, these minor league acquisitions are essentially $12,000 purchases and the Nats now own these contracts.

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Summary: we’ve drafted 10 guys in the MLB phase Rule 5 draft since 2005, and I’d classify 9 of the 10 draftees as eventual failures.  Not a great track record.  Plus its safe to say that most every player drafted FROM us has been a failure for the drafting team  (the exceptions perhaps being Martinez or possibly Nelo).  Clearly the Rule 5 draft isn’t a great way to reliably find players.  Why do we do so much analysis on it?  I dunno, because its fun?  Because its December and we’re desperate for Baseball news?  Fair enough 🙂

 

The Rule 5 draft is being held on December 6th, 2012 at the annual Baseball Winter meetings.  Frequent readers of this and other Nats blogs are well aware of the Rule 5 draft; the Nats have been frequent participants in the Rule 5 draft process, somewhat to the ire of other teams (who I suspect lately have been “returning the favor” by taking players from us and sitting on them for a year, as mentioned below).

Most scouting pundits bemoan the changes made to the CBA, saying it gutted the Rule 5 draft, but it has still featured some pretty significant names even in recent years.  Guys like Dan Uggla, Johan Santana, Shane Victorino, Joakim Soria, Josh Hamilton, RA Dickey, Scott Diamond and Evan Meek are all example draft picks from the past few years.  So I believe the draft is still important and can lead to significant players changing hands.

I split this post into two parts: Below we’ll review the Nats Rule 5 draft history.  Then in Part II tomorrow we’ll talk about our own possible rule 5 players warranting protection, and then talk about what the Nats may be looking for in 2012’s rule 5 draft.

Part I. Nationals Rule-5 draft history

Baseball-reference (of course) has Rule 5 draft results from recent years.  Here’s a list of the Rule 5 drafts since 2005, with our players taken/received noted and with some thoughts on how the player turned out for either side.  Note i’m only doing this analysis for the major league section of the rule 5 draft; there’s just far too little eventual MLB success to be found in the AAA and AA sections of the Rule 5 draft to do the analysis.

2004 Rule 5 Draft (ahead of the 2005 season)

• Tony Blanco: 1B; Drafted from Cincinnati.  He batted .177 as a 1st baseman backup while eating a roster spot all season, then we cut him from AAA after 2007.  He kicked around Colorado’s system for a year and has been playing in Japan ever since.  Verdict: failure.
• Tyrell Godwin: CF, Drafted from Toronto.  Prior to the 2005 season, the team traded another minor leaguer to keep his rights, so this really played out less like a rule-5 pickup in that Godwin didn’t have to stick on the 25-man roster all year.  He played a grand total of 3 games for the Nats, kicked around AAA for a while an hung them up in 2007.  Verdict: failure.

2005 Rule 5 Draft

The Nats did not draft anyone, but had a player drafted themselves who went on a whirlwind tour of MLB organizations before getting returned mid 2006.   Chris Booker was rule-5 drafted by Detroit, who immediately sold him to Philadelphia, who then waived him in May of 2006 with the intent of returning him … except that Kansas City picked him up, hung onto him for a couple months and eventually returned him to Washington.  The Nats eventually called him up but he was relatively ineffective and he washed out of the game (likely due to injuries) after 2008.

2006 Rule 5 Draft

• Jesus Flores, C, drafted from the New York Mets, stuck with the team all year despite having only played high-A ball in the minors.  Despite his downslide and injury issues, Flores remains the hopeful “found gold” prospect that can be had in the Rule 5 draft.  Verdict: success.
• Levale Speigner RHP (a closer) was drafted from Minnesota and, as with Booker above, eventually was traded for by the Nats so they could keep him and stash him in the minors.  After some awful outings for the big team, he passed through waivers mid 2008 and was released from AAA in 2008, bounced around a couple other organizations, and retired after 2010.  Verdict: failure.

The Nats lost one player in this draft: Alejandro Machada was drafted by Minnesota just a month after the Nats had re-signed him to a minor league contract.  So Machada didn’t have to stay on their active roster.  And indeed he didn’t; he was injured all of 2007 and stayed with Minnesota’s AAA team until 2009, never again broaching the majors.

2007 Rule 5 Draft

• Matt Whitney: 1B/3B, Drafted and then eventually returned back to Cleveland, who eventually made the former 1st rounder a ML free agent and we signed him after the 08 season.   We cut him after the 2009 season and he retired after 2010.  Verdict: failure.
• Garrett Guzman: LF/RF: after Rule-5 selecting him, the team eventually traded a PTBNL for him to Minnesota, then we cut him outright and nobody picked him up.  He played two years of Independent ball and is out of baseball after 2010.  Guzman is more infamously known as the player who was caught having sex with an underage girl while playing for our AA team in Harrisburg in 2008, likely the reason why nobody picked him up after his DFA.  Verdict: failure.

2008 Rule 5 Draft

• Terrell Young: Drafted with the #1 pick in the Rule 5 draft from Cincinnati.  He got hurt, never played for us, and was eventually returned to the Reds.   His injury was severe enough that he was out of baseball after being drafted; he has no professional games after 2008.  Verdict: failure.

2009 Rule 5 Draft

• Jamie Hoffman; OF, Drafted with the #1 pick in the Rule 5 draft from Los Angeles Dodgers and immediately traded for Brian Bruney in a pre-arranged deal.  NY returned him to the Dodgers later that spring.   Bruney, meanwhile, immediately went to arbitration and lost with the team in the spring of 2010, was awful out of the gate, and the team outright released him before the end of May.   Verdict: failure, all the way around this transaction.

Zech Zinicola was drafted away from us by Toronto, who eventually returned him to the Nats without any Toronto appearances.  His selection was probably due to Dana Brown‘s recent hiring in Toronto, going from Washington’s Scouting Director to being a special assistant to the GM in Toronto.  Zinicola remains in our farm system to this day and likely is nothing more than an organizational arm.

2010 Rule 5 Draft

• Elvin Ramirez RH reliever, drafted from the New York Mets: he was injured in spring training and spent the entirety of the season on the DL.  Interestingly, the team returned him to New York in October, long before they needed to, and with New York this year he made his way to the majors for some appearances.  If the team drafted him, why not keep him through spring training of 2012 to see if he was worth keeping?  It just seemed odd to give up on the draft pick while procedurally you could still keep him.   Verdict: failure.
• Brian Broderick, RH Starting Pitcher, Drafted from St. Louis and stuck into the 2011’s bullpen as the long-man/mop-up guy.  He was awful, he was costing the team, and was eventually returned to St. Louis before May was out.   However, St. Louis waived him towards the end of last season and we picked him back up, so he sits on our AA roster now.  I project him to be one of our AAA starters in 2013.  Verdict: failure.

The Phillies drafted Michael Martinez away from the Nats, and he’s stuck on their roster both in 2011 and 2012 as a backup middle infielder.  His batting lines are awful though, and the Nats clearly have depth at middle infield, so losing this player was not that big of a deal.

2011 Rule 5 Draft

The Nats did not take anyone for the first time in years, but had two players themselves taken.  Neither player drafted was a surprise; I posted at the time that I thought both these players should have been protected.  Brad Meyers (RH starting pitcher) was drafted by the New York Yankees, but he suffered an injury in spring training and was DL’d all year.  He was recently returned to the franchise and looks set to be in our AAA rotation in 2013.  I think Meyers is a right-handed version of Tommy Milone and could feature for the big club in a pinch, but isn’t the big-time power arm that the team is looking for in a 5th starter.

Erik Komatsu was drafted by St. Louis (possibly in retaliation for our taking Broderick the previous year), made their 2012 opening day roster, played for a while before being waived, got picked up by Minnesota, and by Memorial day was returned to Washington in a whirlwind set of transactions.  I think he remains a minor league caliber player, with too little offense for a corner outfield position but not enough speed to play center.  He likely features in Syracuse’s outfield in 2013.

Summary: we’ve drafted 10 guys in the rule 5 draft since 2005, and I’d classify 9 of the 10 draftees as eventual failures.  Not a great track record.  Plus its safe to say that every player drafted FROM us has been a failure as well (the one exception perhaps being Martinez).  Clearly the Rule 5 draft isn’t a great way to reliably find players.

Part II tomorrow, just ahead of the 40-man deadline date ahead of the Rule 5 draft, where we’ll talk about who we may protect.