Nationals Arm Race

UVA’s Derek Fisher is likely a mid-first round pick, the area’s highest projected for 2014. Photo via pennlive.com

I enjoyed writing about our local players and their draft prospects in 2013 (full 2013 draft results for players with DC/MD/VA ties here).  So here we go for a similar look in for 2014.  Believe it or not, local High Schools kick off play this week, despite the 6 inches of snow we just got.  Perfect Game just released their pre-season All-Atlantic Region team (and the Washington Post All-Met team did a nice review of it);  it  includes some names listed below in our local section.

I’ll talk about local prep kids, then MD/VA college prospects and then branch out to a larger MD/VA prep collection of players mentioned on various draft prep lists (links to which are at the bottom).

Here’s some names to keep an eye on for the 2014 season:

Washington DC Area Local Prep Players

• Jacob Bukauskas, a 16-yr old rising senior (he reclassified to skip a year of HS) who plays for Stone Bridge HS in Ashburn, is already up to 93 on the gun in showcase events and is going to graduate early to qualify for the 2014 draft.  He is committed (incredibly early) to UNC, but you generally don’t graduate HS a year early so you can go play 3 years in college.  #162 on MinorleagueBall’s list.  Pre-season PG all-Atlantic 1st  team.
• Justin Morris is a C from DeMatha HS who plays for the newly crowned 2013 PerfectGame national champions EvoShield Canes.  He’s a Maryland commit but may improve his draft stock with a strong 2014 spring.  #295 on minorleagueball’s list.  Pre-season PG all-Atlantic 1st  team.
• Tommy Doyle is a big (6’6″) RHP from my home town of Vienna, playing at Flint Hill Academy in Oakton.  PG has him at 91 and he’s committed to UVA.  I wonder if the competition he’ll face at the small private school Flint Hill will hamper scouting efforts.  Not in minorleagueball’s top 300.  Pre-season PG all-Atlantic 1st  team.
• Brodie Leftridge, a CF from Highland, MD (outside of Columbia) but going to local power St. Johns Prep.  Committed to Tennessee.   Profiles as a leadoff/CF type; ran a sub 6.6 60 per perfect game.  Ranked #256 on MinorleagueBall.com.   Pre-season PG all-Atlantic 1st  team.

Slim pickings of local HS guys this year unfortunately.  I may have to venture out to Ashburn to see Bukauskas throw.

College Guys in MD/VA:

• Derek Fisher is a lefty corner outfielder at UVA who passed up 6th round money out of HS and now projects as a possible mid 1st rounder.  Law has him higher than others, ranked 14th on his top 50.  MLBDraftInsider has him 16th, as does minorleagueball.  But we have seen relative talent ranking does not always equate to draft positioning in the modern bonus-limit era.  Minorleaguebaseball.com posted this profile of Fisher in early Feb, with a pretty detailed overview of his game and a prediction for middle-of-the-first round.  Nonetheless, he profiles as a good college bat in a draft that doesn’t have a ton of them, and he’ll probably go high.
• Mark Zagunas, C from Virginia Tech, #41 on MinorleagueBall’s list.
• Nick Howard, RHP from UVA, #111 on MinorleagueBall’s list.  He’s a weekend starter, but may be in trouble of losing his spot thanks to two standout sophomore starters who look to be your friday/saturday guys and the addition of freshman Connor Jones (who was a 1st round talent last year out of HS).
• Brandon Downes, CF from UVA, #145 on MinorleagueBall’s list.
• Mike Papi,1B/corner OF from UVA, #176 on MinorleagueBall’s list.
• Troy Stokes, OF from UMaryland, #209 on MinorleagueBall’s list.
• Brandon Cogswell, ss/2b from UVA, ranked #225 on MinorleagueBall’s list.
• K.J. Hockaday, SS from Harford Community College (which is in Bel Air, MD; I had to google it).  #235 on MinorleagueBall’s list.
• Jake Stinnett, sr RHP from UMaryland, has started the season strong and is getting some notice.

Five players in the top 225 draft prospects on UVA’s squad; no wonder they’re getting some heady pre-season praise (#1 on Baseball America’s pre-season rankings, ahead of NC State which boasts two potential top 5 overall picks).  Keith Law wrote specifically about UVA’s talent pool 2/25/14, saying that they’ll likely have their top five guys drafted in the first 3 rounds this year.

High School MD and VA Guys, from around the rest of the State

• Charlie Cody is a 3B from the same Great Bridge HS in Chesapeake that just graduated Connor Jones.  He’s committed to UVA.  Sullivan has him as the #34 HS prospect in the country in mid 2013.  He is known for his speed: a 6.6 60 time.  It should be interesting to see how he fares this spring and whether his stock rises enough to merit a top draft pick.  Here’s some video of a couple at-bats from baseballinstinct.com.  Ranked only #208 on MinorleagueBall’s list.  Pre-season PG all-Atlantic 1st  team.
• Jeff Harding is a senior RHP from Cambridge, MD committed to South Carolina.  PG has him up to 94 on the gun but he’s really undersized (listed as 5’11” 165).  Sullivan lists him as #44 HS prospect in the nation in mid 2013.   Minorleague ball has him at #75.  He seems like a good bet to head to school.  Fair or not, pitchers are considered too small these days unless they’re 6’4″.  Pre-season PG all-Atlantic 1st  team.
• Hunter Williams is a two-way lefty player from Cosby HS in Chesterfield, VA who has skills both on the mound at at the plate.  He’s limited to first base in the field, which may make it tougher for him to get drafted and developed.  91 on the gun.  Another UNC commit, it should be interesting to see which way he focuses.  Minorleagueball has him at #103.  Pre-season PG all-Atlantic 1st  team.
• Jack Gerstenmaier is a SS from Freeman HS in Richmond with a UVA commit.   #232 on MinorleagueBall’s list.   Pre-season PG all-Atlantic 1st  team.
• Devon Fisher is a solid catching prospect from Portsmouth, VA who is either at Greenbriar Christian Academy (a decent baseball development school) or Western Branch (per PG).  UVA committed.  He’s rising in the ranks by virtue of good showcase efforts.  Pre-season PG all-Atlantic 1st  team.
• Hunter Taylor is a C from a small HS on the Delmarva peninsula in Olney, VA (which I had to look up), who also plays with EvoShield and is committed to South Carolina.  Pre-season PG all-Atlantic 1st  team.
• Chase Pinder (brother of Va Tech 2013 2nd rounder Chad Pinder) is a senior SS from Poquoson, VA, committed to Clemson.  Pre-season PG all-Atlantic 1st  team.
• Taylor Lane is a taller SS/3B prospect also from Great Bridge HS in Chesapeake, committed to Florida.  Pre-season PG all-Atlantic 1st  team.
• Troy Stokes is an undersized OF with power from Calvert Hall College in Baltimore with a Maryland commit.  Pre-season PG all-Atlantic 1st  team.
• Derek Casey is an RHP from Mechanicsville, VA with a UVA commit.  Ranked #223 on MinorleagueBall.com.  Pre-season PG all-Atlantic 1st  team.

Lots of local guys on EvoShield; click here http://canesbaseball.net/canes-alumni/ for a look at their alumni.  AAU/Travel baseball is taking over the world.  Also, every guy listed here was on PG’s All-Atlantic team, so that’s clearly a good list to start from for prep interest.

A reminder; there’s almost no baseball talent within the District itself.  The DCPS baseball programs are in terrible shape (as talked about in this excellent WP Magazine article from a couple weeks ago), and the colleges within the city limits that do play baseball (GW, Georgetown in Division I, Gallaudet in Division III NEAC Conference and Catholic in Divison III Landmark Conference) are generally not power-house programs.

Lastly, Here’s some links to draft prep lists that profile national high school talents.

• Matt Garrioch‘s post from minorleagueball.com,
• Garrioch’s top 300 2014 draft prospects post in February
• Jeff Sullivan from 9baseball’s early 2014 draft proffer
• John Manuel ‘s early 2014 draft top-50 at Baseball America
• an early 2014 draft review from mlbdraftinsider.com
• Keith Law‘s early 2014 top-30 lists

High Schools are heading into post-season tournaments and local prep players have had their chances to make impressions through the Spring HS season.  How are our local prep phenoms faring this year, and what players with Virginia ties may feature prominently in the upcoming MLB draft?

Note; it is difficult to find updated stats on Prep players.  I tried.  If you know where to find reliable prep hitting and pitching stats, let me know.  So there’s not much in the way of stats here unless they’re college players.  For all the players below I’ve listed if they appear in the latest top-100 draft prospect rankings from two reliable sources: Keith Law‘s top-100 draft list and BaseballAmerica’s top 100 list and top 250 list.  Instead of re-linking over and over, i’ll refer to these two lists in shorthand via the links here.

First, quick updates on the players mentioned in my March 2013 posting on 4 local players:

• Andy McGuire: SS/3B: leading Madison HS in Vienna to a 19-1 record (with 19 consecutive wins) heading into the District tournament and a #1 local ranking by the Washington Post.  Madison is also an honorable mention in the latest USA Today national rankings.  I asked Law in his 5/16/13 chat about McGuire’s draft status (he’s regularly in the lower 50 of pundit’s top 100 draft prospects for this year, implying a mid 2nd round pick) but Law is “hearing” 4th round, which he’s surprised by and may indicate that McGuire will honor his U. Texas committment.  Draft Rankings: Law #74/BA #196.  6/6/13 update: some video of McGuire at this link; just watching him run and move and his body type I’m immediately thinking he’s going to struggle to stay at SS, echoing what scouts say.
• Alec Grosser: RHP TC Williams: Nothing else has really popped up about Grosser after the initial flurry of articles, and he’s listed as “Signed” and committed to George Mason.  PerfectGame has his best measured fastball at 92, ranging 89-92.  That’s still pretty good and I’m guessing he’ll head to George Mason to see where his arm takes him.  His HS has not had the success one would expect with a dominant arm, sitting at around .500 heading into the post-season.  Not ranked by Law/BA #158.
• Matt McPhearson: OF with Riverdale Baptist popped up on MinorLeagueBall’s Mid-Atlantic report recently with the note that he has “game changing” speed.  He’s still listed as a “Verbal” Commit to U. Miami.  I’ve seen him as a late 1st rounder on some mock drafts.  Here’s a good scouting report on him from BaseballHounds.com.  Lastly there’s some scouting video online of him, showing a good bat from the left-hand side and with some amazing speed stats: a verified 6.2 in the 60 yard dash and home-to-first in less than 3.8 seconds.  As the articles say; that’s Crazy fast.   He’s one of only three guys with an “80” scouting grade in this year’s class per Jim Callis (the other two being Jonathan Gray’s fastball, and Kris Bryant’s power, and those two guys are both going in the top 3 of the 2013 draft). The only knock on him may be his size (just 5’10”) but he profiles as a prototypical leadoff/center fielder.  Law ranked #62/BA #136.
• Thomas Rogers, LHP injured all year is still verbally committed to UNC.  Nothing new to report.  Not ranked in either Law/BA’s lists.

A couple of new names that I’ve taken note of locally, by virtue of their college commitments to major Baseball programs:

• Errol Robinson, SS from St. Johns, signed to play at Ole Miss.  He was #92 in BaseballAmerica’s top 100 pre-season draft prospects and had a nice Q&A with them in March 2013.  His PerfectGame profile and draft write ups indicate he’s a quick-bat SS who has the capability of going in the top 5 rounds.  NatsGM’s Ryan Sullivan scouted him about a week ago and wrote it up here.   Based on this interview (where he talks about how his Mom, Dad and sister all attended or currently are at Ole Miss), I’m pretty sure he’s going to honor his college commitment despite any potential drafting.   Not ranked in either Law/BA’s lists.
• Alec Bettinger, a RHP with Hylton HS in Woodbridge, has a verbal commitment to UVA.  PerfectGame has him with about a 90 mph fastball.  He’s “small but athletic” per this MinorLeagueBall article (6’0″ 165lbs), which may have him leaning towards a future professional bullpen role.  6’0″ is really on the low-end for what scouts like to see in a starter (think Tim Hudson is considered undersized and he’s 6’1″ 175lbs), so it seems likely he’ll take his fastball to college to see how it develops.  Not ranked in either Law/BA’s list.

Other Virginia-connected big names being talked about in the draft (thanks to this MinorLeagueBall article and comments for crowd-sourced Virginia-connected names to target)

• Conner Jones, RHP with Great Bridge HS, the HS of Justin Upton down in Chesapeake.  Jones is leading his HS to a current 19-0 record, good enough for being ranked 18th by USAToday/22nd by BaseballAmerica in the state title game.  He’s easily the best Virginia draft prospect this year and is the only guy that MLBDraftInsider.com has going in the top 50 of their mock drafts right now.  PG has him at 93mph with a UVA committment that he has told scouts he intends to honor, but he’s getting back-of-the-1st round notice for the upcoming draft.  As scouts have noted, these “verbal commitments” are pretty meaningless unless a player specifically fails to file one specific item prior to the draft (which automatically invalidates them; i can’t recall what it is right now but believe its a drug test).  So we’ll see.  Law ranked #29/BA ranked #33.
• Bobby Wahl: RHP from Ole Miss, a good sized Righty who is Ole Miss’ Friday night starter and who hails from Springfield, VA (West Springfield HS).  He’s 9-0 with a 1.43 ERA on the season, quite a stat line considering who he’s typically going up against (the #1 starters of other SEC teams, easily the best baseball conference in the land).  Law ranked #66/BA ranked #36.  If he last til the late 2nd round as Law suggests, he could be right around where the Washington Nationals could draft him with their first pick (#68 overall).  However, John Sickels/MinorLeagueBall’s latest mock draft has Wahl going #31, more consistent with BA’s rankings.  It doesn’t seem likely he’ll fall to the Nats.
• Austin Nicely, LHP from Spotswood HS in Grottoes, Virginia (way down I-81 by my alma Mater James Madison University).   PG has him as a lefty who throws 90 and is committed to UVA.  Law #78/Not in BA’s top 250, a huge disparity.
• Chad Pinder, 3B Virginia Tech.  Described as a plus-defender, decent bat.  His season batting stats aren’t that impressive as compared to his teammates, so he must be some defender.  If he can really move to SS like the scouting reports say and still hit for average and some power, he’s a good 2nd-3rd round prospect.  Law ranked #86/BA ranked #53.
• Jack Roberts, RHP from James River HS in Richmond, committed to UVA and per PG gets up to 92mph.   Big guy (6’4″ 200lbs) who I’d bet can add more velocity if he goes to college.   If he threw a couple ticks higher he’d probably be a big time prospect.  Not ranked in either Law/BA’s list.
• Zach Rice, LHP from Suffolk (outside of Norfolk), tall lanky kid who slings it 89 from the left hand side.  Committed to UNC.  Worth mentioning since he’s been recruited by the best team in the country.  Not ranked in either Law/BA’s list.
• Kyle Crockett, LHP from UVA.  He’s UVA’s closer (and a HS teammate of fellow draft prospect Chad Pinder).  He throws 90-92 from the left side but has impeccable control; he has just one unintentional walk in 43 innings this year while getting more than a K/inning.  Despite being used as a reliever, I can see someone moving him back to the rotation to see if his stuff can play for 6-7 innings at a time.  Not ranked by Law/BA #103.

Conclusion: Looking at this list, UVA stands to lose an awful lot of pitching recruits if these guys don’t honor their commitments.  Bettinger, Jones, Nicely and Roberts are all UVA commits.  But imagine that staff in a couple years if they all go to college.  Phew.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/2013-state-draft-report-virginia/