Nationals Arm Race

First off, here’s the records of our teams after three 6-game series (link to all MiLB standings here)

• AAA: 4-14 (tied for worst in league)
• AA: 6-12 (last place in division)
• High-A: 9-9 (2 games out of 1st)
• Low-A: 1-17.

I asked Keith Law a question in his chat last week about Fredericksburg, who was 0-15 at the time, asking whether they would ever win and he thought I was exaggerating. He replied as much, posting their team batting and pitching stats in amazement.

Lets do a quick run-through who’s looking good and bad around our minor league affiliates. I use links that i store in a page here: https://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?page_id=16709 so you can use the same shortcuts i’ve collected over the years.

AAA observations:

• Who’s hot: Palka, Sanchez, and Garcia not half bad at the plate.
• McFarland in the bullpen is on a hot streak, with 9 Ks in his last 4 innings.
• Who’s not: Kieboom; just 2-15 last week, still hitting under .200 for the season. WTF.
• Not ONE of our AAA starters was even halfway decent last week. Braymer is really struggling in particular, concerning since he’s one of our 40-man covering starters.

Who is next to get called up? I don’t see ANYONE really making a statement at AAA demanding a call-up. Nobody. We have seven 40-man guys in AAA (plus two more who are on IL) and there’s no burning reinforcements for the big club.

Who is next to get demoted or released? Carlos Tocci is 1-19 on the season and the team has at least 7 outfielders on the roster … time seems short for this veteran MLFA.

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AA Observations

• Who’s hot at the plate: Jakson Reetz, of all people, 5/14 in the last week with some power.
• In the rotation: Teel, Cate and Sharp had solid weeks on the mound. Teel isn’t exactly a swing-and-miss guy but he’s getting results.
• Sanchez has 20/2 K/BB on the season right now.
• Baldonado: 8Ks, 0BB in 4ip last week. not to shabby.
• Unfortuantely, Reetz is the team leader in BA for the season at a paltry .237.
• Did you know there’s not a single 40-man player in our AA team? AA is generally where the best near-MLB ready prospects get sent by most franchises as a finishing school and we don’t have a single prospect in that category.

Who is next to get promoted? I think Klobotis is making a statement: 14/1 K/BB in 8 innings, and has given up just 2 hits on the year. I think Baldonado needs to move up as well; he was in AAA 3 years ago and now is 28 overmatching kids in AA.

Who is next to get demoted or released? I mean, nobody’s hitting on this team but 21MLFA SS/2B Osvaldo Duarte is 8-51 with 21 Ks and just 4 walks in a position that is completely replaceable.

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High-A observations

• Who’s hot: the entire outfield is crushing the ball; Rhinesmith, Connell and Canning lead the team in BA and OPS over the last week, with Rhinesmith just crushing the ball in particular going 11-20 in the last week.
• Another solid start for Cade Cavalli.
• What is going on with Rutledge? In 4 starts, he now has an ERA north of 12, he’s given up 17 hits in 10 innings and has a 10/9 K/BB ratio. I’m sorry, but this just isn’t going to cut it. It’s starting to look like he’s out of his element in High-A. And it REALLY is starting to look bad for pundits who thought he is a better prospect than Cavalli.

Who is next to get promoted? Alex Troop; who has a 0.46 whip and 12/0 K/BB in 8 innings in middle relief.

Who is next to get demoted or released? Rutledge. I think he needs to go to Low-A and regroup unless he’s hurt.

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Low-A

• At least they got a win.
• their BEST hitter by OPS is hitting .219 (Jake Randa)
• Junior Martina had a nice week.
• The team did not hit a single home run in the last series.
• The starting pitching is SO BAD in Low-A that not one single pitcher qualifies for the ERA title.
• That being said, a couple of starters actually had solid starts: Karlo Seijas: 7ip, 3hits, 8ks, 0 walks. More of that please.

Who is next to get promoted: Nobody. Not one single pitcher is making a case, nor are any of the hitters.

Who is next to get demoted/released? There’s a slew of hitters with really ugly lines right now: Jeremy Ydens is 4-41 on the season, Kevin Strohschein is 8-50 with 13Ks and a walk … and 1 RBI. He’s the 1B. Nothing positive in F-burg.

Another  year in the books, and another 40 guys now potentially part of the Nats organization.  Ok well really more like 32-33 new guys; that’s about how many i’d expect to sign out of this class.

We reviewed the top 10 more in-depth in the previous post since, historically, the most likely eventual MLB impact players are all top-end draft picks.  Lets zip through the rest of the draft and do some quick commentary.

• Round 11: Frankie Bartow, U Miami’s closer.  I like this as an 11th rounder, which in today’s draft system are the first time you can grab someone of note and have a decent shot at them.  Bartow has some career accolades (freshman all-american, finalist for collegiate closer of the year, etc).  Yes he’s a college closer and that’s all he’ll be, but I like this as an 11th rounder.
• Round 12: Graham Lawson, also an 8th/9th inning guy for South Carolina.  Not as accomplished as Bartow, but similar role.
• Round 13: Cody Wilson, a corner OF from FAU.  Good power this year (14 homers), good speed (nearly 20 SBs).  Not a bad 12th rounder.   College Junior though so he has some leverage but it doesn’t seem like he slipped really.
• Round 14: Aaron Fletcher.  a Senior lefty starter from U Houston.  Um, this was Houston’s Friday starter, who pitched a 4-hit, 0 earned run gem in the CWS regional opener to beat Purdue.   Why wasn’t he picked up already?  College numbers look great for a good team in a decent conference, conference pitcher of the year in 2018.  Perhaps its because he doesn’t have massive K/9 numbers.  Nonetheless, I like this pick.
• Round 15: Evan Lee, a two-way draft eligible sophomore player for Arkansas.  Lefty reliever and a corner OF.  This is a weird one; he doesn’t have great numbers on either side of the ball, but he was an absolute beast coming out of HS (all-american on every service, Gatorade player of the state, etc).  I wonder if this is an over slot candidate.
• Round 16: Carson Teel, College Jr lefty starter from Oklahoma State.  Entered the weekend rotation mid-season, gave them 11 starts, including getting the Win over USF in last weekend’s regional.  Decent numbers on the season skewed by one bad outing against West Virginia.  Another value pick.
• Round 17: Ridge Chapman, coll JR mid-week starter for South Carolina; looks like a guy with some inflation in his stats; his BAA is .189 on the year but his ERA is 4.95.   He’s a Juco transfer into South Carolina and his Juco numbers were pretty impressive; perhaps an area scout remembered him from 2017 (when he was drafted late but chose not to sign).
• Round 18: Jacob Rhinesmith, Coll Jr center fielder from Western Kentucky (which, i’d like to point out, has completely ripped off the Nats Curly-W on their uniforms…).  14  homers, 13 SBs as a center fielder?  Another Juco transfer with very gaudy 2017 numbers.  Listed as 6’1″ 195, lefty.  Maybe he sticks in center?
• Round 19: Zach Linginfelter, RHP coll Sophomore from Tennessee.  Was in relief most of the season, then put into the rotation towards the end of the year.  Pitched well in the SEC tourney.
• Round 20: Onix Vega, a Juco C from Broward College.  Gotta have catchers for your short season teams.

Past Round 20, I’ll just note interesting guys; see the table above for the next 20 picks fully.  From here down honestly most guys are just one-and-done short-season players.

• Round 21: Ryan Tapani, 5th year Sr RHP from Creighton.  Looks like Creighton’s Friday starter with pretty gaudy numbers (10-1, 2.38 ERA on the year).  Just named 3rd team All-American by Collegiate Baseball Newspaper.  Son of former MLB player Kevin Tapani, a former pitcher who had more than 350 major league starts in a 13 year career. Nice 21st rounder senior sign.
• Round 26: Colin Morse, a senior RHP from Shenandoah University by way of … McLean HS.  A local kid.  He seemed like a weekend starter for Shenandoah the last three  years, and he had starts in all four years of his career.
• Round 30 Trey Vickers, senior SS from Wichita State.  Basically a four year starter at SS for a good baseball program.  Not flashy, but I like the career accomplishment for a higher profile program.
• Two late round picks (Rounds 34 and 40 picks Tyler Baca and Michael Menhart both seem to be related to Nationals front-office staff (respectively,  Assistant Director of Amateur Scouting Mark Baca and Pitching Coordinator Paul Menhart).
• Round 37 pick Cole Wilcox is an interesting throw-away pick; he was projected as a 1st rounder prior to the draft and was even tied to the Nats in some mocks, but he had a $3M price tag and so once he fell out of the 1st round he was guaranteed to go to school.  He announced his intent to honor his commitment to University of Georgia even before the Nats picked him, where he’ll be a draft eligible sophomore in two years’ time.

Its notable that every single pick the Nats had between rounds 25 and 32 (8 straight rounds) were College seniors.  And then, they ripped of five straight HS draftees from rounds 33-37, including a guy who was projected to go in the first round (Wilcox) in the 37th.   It is almost as if the team got to round 33 and was like, “eh, we’re good, pick a bunch of prep kids as favors to executives or who we have no chance of signing.”

Summary of the Draft class:

• 23 Arms, 18 Position players, which adds up to 41 since we have a 2-way guy in Evan Lee.
• 16 College Juniors (or draft-eligible Sophomores)
• 14 College Seniors with no leverage
• 3 Juco guys
• 7 High Schoolers, 6 of which are basically throw-away picks in the late rounds.

Of the 30 4-year college guys:

• 8 from SEC teams
• 1 from Pac12 teams
• 2 from ACC teams
• 1 from Big10 teams
• 2 from Big12 teams
• 5 from non-major conference but still big-time Baseball programs (FAU, Houston, Sam Houston State, UConn, Wichita State)
• 11 from smaller/non division 1 programs

Not surprisingly, a huge take from the SEC, which proved this year they’re unrivaled in terms of college baseball power.

Geographic Locations of picks:

• 6 from Florida, 4 from Georgia
• 4 from California, another 2 from Arizona
• 4 From Texas, another 2 from Oklahoma and 2 from Arkansas
• 3 from Tennessee, 2 from South Carolina and 2 from Kentucky
• 5 from the Midwest (Iowa, Indiana, Kansas, Nebraska)
• 4 from random remaining states: one each from Connecticut, Wisconsin, Oregon and Virginia.

that’s 36 of the 40 picks from these 5 general areas.  We know that Florida, Georgia and California are the three heaviest areas for providing baseball talent, but normally we see a big focus in the Texas/Oklahoma area with our drafts.  Not this year; one quarter came from the two southeastern states this year.

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Here’s a table with all 40 picks.

Round	Overall	Name	Position	Col/HS	College or Cmtm	State
1	27	Denaburg, Mason	RHP (Str)	HS	Florida	FL
2	65	Cate, Tim	LHP (Str)	Coll Jr	Uconn	CT
3	101	Schaller, Reid	RHP (Rel)	Coll So	Vanderbilt	TN
4	131	Irvin, Jake	RHP (Str)	Coll Jr	Oklahoma	OK
5	161	Canning, Gage	OF	Coll Jr	Arizona State	AZ
6	191	Karp, Andrew	RHP (Str)	Coll Sr	Florida State	FL
7	221	Day, Chandler	RHP (Rel)	Coll Jr	Vanderbilt	TN
8	251	Cropley, Tyler	C	Coll Sr	Iowa	IA
9	281	Driskill, Tanner	RHP (Str)	Coll Sr	Lamar	TX
10	311	Shaddy, Carson	2B	Coll Sr	Arkansas	AR
11	341	Bartow, Frankie	RHP (Rel)	Coll Jr	Miami	FL
12	371	Lawson, Graham	RHP (Rel)	Coll Jr	South Carolina	SC
13	401	Wilson, Cody	OF (Corner)	Coll Jr	Florida Atlantic U	FL
14	431	Fletcher, Aaron	LHP (Str)	Coll Sr	Houston	TX
15	461	Lee, Evan	LHP (rel)/OF	Coll So	Arkansas	AR
16	491	Teel, Carson	LHP (Str)	Coll Jr	Oklahoma State	OK
17	521	Chapman, Ridge	RHP (Str)	Coll Jr	South Carolina	SC
18	551	Rhinesmith, Jacob	OF (CF)	Coll Jr	Western Kentucky	KY
19	581	Linginfelter, Zach	RHP (rel)	Coll So	Tennessee	TN
20	611	Vega, Onix	C	JC J1	Broward College	FL
21	641	Tapani, Ryan	RHP (Str)	Coll Sr	Creighton	NB
22	671	Daily, Cole	SS	Coll Jr	Notre Dame	IN
23	701	Hamilton, Cole	C	JC J1	Linn Benton CC	OR
24	731	Marinconz, Kyle	SS	Coll Jr	Cal Poly San Luis Obispo	CA
25	761	Vann, Chris	LHP (Str)	Coll Sr	Mercer	GA
26	791	Morse, Colin	RHP (Str)	Coll Sr	Shenandoah	VA
27	821	O'Connor, Pablo	2B	Coll Sr	Azusa Pacific University	CA
28	851	Chisolm, Blake	1B	Coll Sr	Sam Houston State	TX
29	881	Pogue, Colton	SS	Coll Sr	Pittsburg State U	KS
30	911	Vickers, Trey	SS	Coll Sr	Wichita State	KS
31	941	Quintana, Jonathan	OF	Coll Sr	Barry U	FL
32	971	Maley, Alec	RHP (Str)	Coll Sr	Kentucky	KY
33	1001	Haney, Jack	C	HS	Cedartown HS	GA
34	1031	Baca, Tyler	OF	HS	The Linfield School (CA)	CA
35	1061	Binelas, Alex	1B	HS	Oak Creek HS (WI)	WI
36	1091	Blessie, Bo	RHP	HS	Robert E Lee HS (TX)	TX
37	1121	Wilcox, Cole	RHP	HS	Heritage HS (GA)	GA
38	1151	Milacki, Bobby	RHP	Coll Jr	Arizona Christian U	AZ
39	1181	Nardi, Andrew	LHP	JC J2	Moorpark Col (CA)	CA
40	1211	Menhart, Michael	RHP	HS	Richmond Hill HS	GA