Could Keuchel look good in Nats colors too? photo via Houston Chronicle
Baseball FA prediction pieces are, well, about worth the electrons they occupy in the interweb in terms of predictability. But they’re off-season conversation starters, often good ones, and the first major publication of such a piece (from MLBtraderumors) seemed especially well thought out when it came to the Nats and their likely targets. So I thought i’d pipe up.
Starting points: with the Trea Turner Super-2 fiasco and the Trevor Rosenthal signing, here’s a rough payroll figure for 2019:
- $88M for 7 veteran players now under contract
- $43M for the 7 arbitration eligible players we have (this assumes we re-sign everyone, including Sammy Solis and Michael Taylor and Tanner Roark even at $10M).
- $8.75M for the remaining pre-arb players to fill out the 40-man (tangent: 26 players total $8.75M in salary outlay. That’s less than what a 4th starter in Roark likely makes in arbitration. While this has always been the case, I can’t help but think that this will become the defining issue of the next CBA negotiations).
- $14.5M estimate for 2019 benefits
- That totals $154.5M right now, leaving $51.5M or so for FA signings and moves.
So we have $51M to play with right now. We primarily need a Starting Pitcher, a Catcher, and a 2b. MLBtraderumors has us signing:
- Dallas Keuchel for 4yrs/$82M for an AAV of $20.5M
- Yasmani Grandal for 4yrs/$64M for an AAV of $16M
- Brian Dozier, for 1yr/$10M.
So that’d be a total outlay of $46.5M on these three players, within the $51M budget but leaving precious little room for the “edge of the roster” kind of signings the team still needs (middle relief, loogy, corner infielder to platoon with Ryan Zimmerman, etc).
Its also notable that both Keuchel and Grandal would cost the Nats draft picks as Qualifying Offer extended players. So if the team signed these two guys, they’d basically shred their 2019 draft. Thanks to the idiocy of luxury tax management, if they signed one QO-assigned pick they’d lose their 2nd and 5th “highest picks” AND $1M from their international bonus pool. If they signed a second QO assigned pick, they’d also give up their 3rd and 6th highest. So, just so we’re on the same page, assuming the Nats lose Bryce Harper and sign both Keuchel and Grandal this is what their 2019 draft would look like:
- 1st round: protected
- 2nd round: forfeited
- 3rd round: forfeited
- 4th round: kept
- post-4th round compensation pick for Harper: forfeited
- 5th round: forfeited
- 6th round and onwards; kept.
So we’d have just a 1st and 4th rounder, then 6th onward. In other words … we’d be absolutely punting on the 2019 draft.
HOWEVER, here’s what your 25-man roster would look like with these 3 signings:
- Rotation: Scherzer, Strasburg, Keuchel, Roark, Ross (with Fedde, Voth, JRodriguez as AAA backups prior to any Jeremy Hellickson-style reclamation signings)
- Bullpen: Doolittle, Rosenthal, Barraclough, JMiller, Grace, Suero, Glober, Solis (pushing Adams, Gott, AWilliams and Cordero to AAA or to MLFA based on options issues).
- Catching: Grandal, Kieboom with Severino/Read in competition (Severino has an options issue for 2019, complicating the situation).
- Infield: Rendon, Turner, Dozier, Zimmerman (with Difo and Kendrick as backups)
- Outfield: Soto, Eaton, Robles, with Taylor as a 4th outearning 2/3rds of the starting outfield.
I mean, that’s a heck of a rotation. That’s 2 guys with Cy Youngs and a third in Strasburg who is clearly top 15 in the league. Roark and Ross have both put up better-than-5th starter numbers. I’d go to battle with that rotation. The bullpen could use some bolstering, especially since Solis was so bad in 2018 and is out of options. Kendrick backs up multiple spots when needed, Difo stays where he’s good ( a backup middle infielder). We have a good starting C but will struggle during his off-days.
I’d be a-ok with this.
Now, lets say the team wanted to slightly vary its draft shredding. They could replace Keuchel with Nathan Eovaldi or Charlie Morton both of whom have re-made their careers and wouldn’t have QOs and would be cheaper. Instead of Dozier they could go with someone like Jed Lawrie or DJ LeMahieu and get less production for less money and have a bit more for bullpen/backups. There’s less on the Catcher market (would anyone trust Wilson Ramos and his two ACL injuries?), but there’s always the option to trade guys too.
thoughts?