Nationals Arm Race

Welcome to Draft day 2020!

This is a review of the marquee names that have been in discussion for the top-end of the 1st round for the 2020 draft.  Since (especially high schoolers) guys constantly are moving up or down draft boards, each section is divided into two areas: those 4-5 names really in talks to go 1-1 overall (“1-1” means 1st round, 1st overall) and then those who have fallen to “just” being 1st or 2nd rounders.

First draft of this post was in June of 2018, when a freshman made All American status and got put here for tracking.

By this point, we’re almost at “prospect fatigue” talking about the top guys and who might get to the Nats.  But incase you’re not aware of who is likely going in the first 10 picks; read on.

College Upper 1st round names in the mix for 1-1

Note; as we’ve moved closer to the 2020 draft, the same 5 names keep appearing in the top 5 of most every mock draft.

• Spencer Torkelson, 1B/LF Arizona State.   3rd team AA PG/Rawlings 2018 as a freshman.   2nd team d1baseball AA 2018.  2018 Collegiate USA team as freshman.  Hit 25 homers as a freshman, 22 homers as sophomore.  2nd team d1baseball.com AA as sophomore.  2nd team NCBWA AA as sophomore.   2nd team BA AA 2019 as sophomore.  2019 Collegiate National team
• Austin Martin, 3B/CF Vanderbilt.  Slashed .410/.502/.603 as a sophomore w/ speed.  1st team d1baseball.com AA 2019 as sophomore.  Plays 6 positions, should be primary SS in 2020.  1st team BA AA 2019 as sophomore.  2019 Collegiate National team
• Asa Lacy, LHP Texas A&M.  130 Ks in 88 IP as a sophomore.  2019 Collegiate National team
• Nick Gonzales, 2B/SS New Mexico State.  1st team  d1baseball.com AA 2019 as sophomore, slashed .432/.532/.773 with power.  2nd team BA AA 2019 as sophomore
• Emerson Hancock, RHP Georgia.  High-90s fastball, 3-pitch guy, great sophomore numbers for #3 team in the land.  2nd team d1baseball.com AA 2019 as sophomore.  2nd team NCBWA AA as sophomore.  2nd team BA AA 2019 as sophomore

College Candidates who have fallen out of  1-1 contention

• J.T. Ginn, RHP Mississippi State.  1st rounder in 2018 who didn’t sign, draft eligible sophomore.  103/18 K/BB in 80 innings as a freshman in SEC, wow.  Spring 2020 shoulder soreness, bad sign, then blew out elbow and will miss all of 2020 with elbow surgery.  Also lots of buzz in mocks linking to Nats.
• Max Meyer, RHP Minnesota.   3rd team d1baseball AA 2018.  2018 Collegiate USA team alternative as freshman.  2019 Collegiate National team.  2020 fast riser.
• Reid Detmers, RHP ECU.  1st team d1baseball.com AA 2019 as sophomore.  1st team NCBWA AA as sophomore.  2nd in nation in Ks; 162 Ks in 107 ip.  2019 Collegiate National team
• Casey Martin, SS Arkansas.  power hitting SS who can stay at the position and is a 20/20 threat.
• Patrick Bailey; C;  NC State.  2018 Collegiate USA team alternative as freshman.  switch-hitting C improving as sophomore.  2019 Collegiate National team.
• Cole Wilcox, RHP Georgia; 1st round talent out of HS, pitched mostly in Relief freshman year with decent numbers.  Lots of buzz to the Nats.
• Carmen Mlodszinski: RHP from South Carolina.  Helium guy fall of 2019.
• Ryan Ward, OF Bryant.  2nd team AA PG/Rawlings 2018 as a freshman hitting .409.
• Chris Mauloni, RHP Jacksonville.  3rd team AA PG/Rawlings 2018 as a freshman.
• Patrick Frederickson, RHP Minnesota.  3rd team d1baseball AA 2018.
• Tanner Burns; RHP; Auburn.  2018 Collegiate USA team alternative as freshman
• Kevin Abel, RHP Oregon State.  Star of the 2018 CWS, getting 4 wins plus pitching a 2-hit shutout in the championship game.
• Alec Burleson, Util ECU.  1st team d1baseball.com AA 2019 as sophomore, slashed .370/.399/.573 and was 6-2 in 60IP on the mound as a two-way player.  1st team NCBWA AA as sophomore.
• Justin Foscue, 2B, Mississippi State.  2nd team  d1baseball.com AA 2019 as sophomore
• Holden Powell, RHP UCLA closer, 2nd team  d1baseball.com AA as sophomore.  1st team NCBWA AA as sophomore.  2nd team BA AA 2019 as sophomore
• Chris Lanzilli, OF Wake Forest.  2nd team NCBWA AA as sophomore
• Tyler Brown, RHP Vanderbilt closer.  2nd team NCBWA AA as sophomore.  2019 Collegiate National team
• C.J. Van Eyk; RHP; Florida State.  2018 Collegiate USA team alternative as freshman.  Great CWS super Regional outing on national TV 2019.
• Casey Optiz, C Arkansas.  2019 Collegiate National team

High School Upper 1st round names in the mix for 1-1

• Zac Veen, OF (CF) Florida HS.  Florida commit.  Law says best HS player in class
• Austin Hendrick, OF West Allegheny HS (Pa.).  Mississippi State commit.  Big power kid.
• Mick Abel, RHP Jesuit HS (Ore.).  Oregon State commit.
• Robert Hassell, LHP/OF Independence HS (Tn.).  2nd team Rawlings AA 2019 as jr.  3rd team USA Today AA in 2019 as junior.  MaxPreps 1st team AA as junior.  Tennessee Gatorade POTY in 2019 as junior.  CF
• Dylan Crews, OF Lake Mary HS (Fla).  LSU commit.  PG has him as #2 prep player in class, long-time member of US national teams.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF (CF) Harvard-Westlake HS, CA.  top all-around prep position player in draft.   Vanderbilt commit.  3rd team Baseball america AA in 2019 as junior.  Maxpreps 2nd team AA as junior.  Might be more famous than good (parents both hollywood actors) but still 1st rounder.
• Nick Bitsko, RHP/corner guy Doylestown, PA.  UVA commit, helium guy.
• Ed Howard, SS Mount Carmel (Ill) HS.  Helium guy in 2019, Oklahoma commit.
• Jared Kelly, RHP Refugio HS (Tex.).  was LSU commit, now Texas commit.  Mid-90s since sophomore.   2nd team USA Today AA in 2019 as junior.  2nd team Baseball america AA in 2019 as junior

High School guys whose stock has fallen:

• Nick Savino, LHP Potomac Falls HS, Sterling Va.  UVA commit.  This is the highest i’ve ever seen a DC-area prep player ranked; he’s legitimately in the running for a top 10 overall pick in 2020.  Decided in Dec 2019 to graduate early, skip his Sr season and enroll in UVA.  Shocking decision for a player who was looking like a top 10 overall pick and a $4M bonus.
• Blaze Jordan, 1B/3B DeSoto Central High School (Southaven, Mississippi).  Re-classified/graduating early.   Mississippi State commit
• Tyler Soderstrom, C Turlock (Calif.) HS.  UCLA commit.
• Jared Jones, RHP/OF Miranda HS (Cal).  USC commit.  top 2-way player in the class.   1st team Rawlings AA 2019 as jr.  2nd team USA Today AA in 2019 as junior.  3rd team Baseball america AA in 2019 as junior.  MaxPreps 1st team AA as junior.
• Timmy Manning, LHP Cardinal Gibbons HS, Fort Lauderdale (Fla).  UFlorida commit.  Underclassman on USA 18U team in 2018.
• Drew Romo, C Woodlands HS (Houston TX).  LSU commit, switch hitting catcher starter on USA 18U team as a junior.
• Yohandy Morales, SS Braddock HS, Miami.  UMiami commit.
• Jace Bohrofen, 1B Westmoore Hs (Ok.)  1st team Rawlings AA 2019 as jr.
• Jack Bulger, C from DeMatha.  3-time 1st or 2nd team USA Today AA, best local prospect in years.  Maxpreps 2nd team AA as junior.
• Colten Keith, inf/RHP from Biloxi (Ms.).  1st team Usa today AA in 2019 as junior.  Maxpreps 2nd team AA as junior.  Mississippi Gatorade POTY as junior.
• Bryce Madron, OF Blanchard (Ok.).   2nd team USA Today AA in 2019 as junior.
• Masyn Winn, inf/RHP Kingwood (Tx.).   2nd team USA Today AA in 2019 as junior.  USA 17-U stand-out.
• Bryce Ballard, rhp/3b (Ga.).  3rd team USA Today AA in 2019 as junior.
• Aaron Nixon, inf/RHP Mcallen HS (Tx.).  3rd team USA Today AA in 2019 as junior.
• Dylan Ray, OF Madison, AL.  Maxpreps 2nd team AA as junior.
• Kyle Harrison, MIF/RHP De La Salle HS, Concord CA..  Maxpreps 2nd team AA as junior.

Sources used to create this list

• Perfect Game/Rawlings College All-Americans for 2018 looking for freshmen
• d1baseball 2018 Collegiate All-Americans looking for freshmen
• 2018 USA Collegiate National Team looking for freshmen
• d1baseball 2018 Freshman All-american team
• Fangraphs “the Board” or 2020 class
• ESPN early 2020 Draft Class article.
• D1baseball 2019 all-americans, looking for sophomores.
• NCBWA 2019 all-americans, looking for sophomores.
• BA early 2020 Best College draft prospects
• BA earl 2020 top Prep prospects
• BA 2019 Collegiate All Americans
• BA 2019 ABCA/Rawlings All Americans looking for juniors
• 2019 Collegiate National team rosters.
• 2019 BA HS All Americans looking for juniors.
• 2019 Maxpreps All Americans looking for juniors
• Baseball America 2020 draft preview; college and HS players from Sept 2019
• 2020 High School draft top 100 prospect list from d1baseball.com Nov 2019
• Baseball America 2020 draft preview; college and HS players from Nov 2019
• BA top 100 2020 draft prospect list 1/8/20
• Keith Law’s top 30 draft prospects 3/16/20
• Prospect Insider top 20 list Apr2020
• Fangraphs Draft prospect rankings Apr2020
• Prospect Insider top 50 May2020

I collect Mock Drafts in baseball.  The first of these I found this year was the day after the 2019 draft, then the next was in early Oct right after the final 2020 draft order was finalized.  These early ones are pretty crazy; so much can change (especially with prep players) in a year’s time that the early projections are mostly useless.  But, they’re also interesting to see how player rise and fall on draft boards over the course of a year.

I’ll keep adding to this list as Mocks come in; they’re generated all the way up to the day of the draft by the major pundits.  If i’m missing a ranking here, please let me know.

Here’s the Mock draft collection.  I’ve generally listed their top-5 and then who they project the Nats to take at #22 (if they project out that far).  this year i’m ordering them Chronologically as rec’d instead of grouping by pundit…. this should let us see kind of an evolution of the top of the draft.  Players are bolded the first time they’re mentioned, not again afterwards.

• Baseball America (Carlos Collazo/Teddy Cahill): July 2019 Way-too-Early Mock Draft:  Emerson Hancock, Spencer Torkelson, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Austin Martin, Patrick Bailey
• Baseball America (Carlos Collazo) Oct 2019 Draft Order finalization Mock: Austin Martin, Torkelson, Hancock, Nick Gonzales, Asa Lacy.
• Baseball America (Carlos Collazo) Jan 2020 Mock: Martin, Hancock, Torkelson, Gonzales, Lacy.  Nats take Heston Kjerstad, Arkansas corner OF.
• Baseball America (Carlos Collazo) Feb 2020 Mock v2.0: Martin, Torkelson, Lacy, Gonzales, Hancock.  Nats take Ed Howard, prep OF from Illinois.
• CBSSports (Mike Axisa): apr 2020 mock: Martin, Gonzales, Torkelson, Hancock, Lacy.  Nats take J.T. Ginn, who blew out arm one start into 2020.
• Baseball America (Carlos Collazo) April 2020 Mock: Torkelson, Martin, Lacy, Gonzales, Hancock.  Nats take Ginn.
• ESPN (Kiley McDaniel) 5/13/20 Mock draft: Torkelson, Martin, Lacy, Hancock, Zack Veen,  Nats take Cole Wilcox.
• The Athletic (Keith Law) 5/13/20 Mock Draft 1.0: Torkelson, Martin, Lacy, Veen, Hancock.   Nats also taking Wilcox
• Baseball America (Carlos Collazo) 5/13/20 Mock draft: Torkelson, Martin, Lacy, Gonzales, Hancock.  Nats taking Slade Cecconi, a RHP from uMiami
• MLB.com (Jim Callis): 5/13/20 Mock draft: Torkelson, Martin, Lacy, Hancock, Veen.  Nats taking Cecconi
• CBSSports (Mike Axisa): 5/29/20 Mock draft: Torkelson, Martin, Lacy, Hancock, Meyer.  Nats still on Ginn
• Baseball America (Carlos Collazo) 5/27/20 Mock Draft v5.0: Torkelson, Martin, Lacy, Veen, Gonzales.  Nats taking Jared Kelley, a prep RHP from Texas HS.
• ESPN (Kiley McDaniel) 5/26/20 Mock 2.0: Torkelson, Martin, Lacy, Veen, Max Meyer.  Nats still on Wilcox.
• Fangraphs (Eric Longenhagen) 5/27/20 Mock 1.0: Torkelson, Lacy, Martin, Gonzales, Meyer.  Nats on Wilcox.
• MLB.com (Jim Callis): 5/27/20 Mock draft: Torkelson, Martin, Lacy, Gonzales, Veen.  Nats taking Clayton Beeter, RHP, Texas Tech
• Athletic (Keith Law) 5/28/20 Mock 2.0: Torkelson, Martin, Lacy, Veen, Hancock.  Nats on Wilcox
• Radio.com (Tim Kelly) 6/1/20 Mock Draft: Torkelson, Martin, Lacy, Veen, Meyer.  Nats on Justin Foscue, 2B Mississippi State
• CBSSports (Mike Axisa): 6/1/20 mock: Torkelson, Martin, Lacy, Veen, Hancock.  Nats still on Ginn
• Athletic (Keith Law) 6/3/20 Mock 3.0: Torkelson, Martin, Lacy, Veen, Hancock.  Nats on Wilcox again (Garrett Crochet if Wilcox goes early)
• Baseball America (Carlos Collazo) 6/3/20 Mock Draft v6.0 ; Torkelson, Veen, Lacy, Martin, Hancock.  Nats on Foscue.
• MLB.com (Jonathan Mayo) 6/4/20 mock: Torkelson, Martin, Lacy, Gonzales, Meyer.  Nats on Cecconi (with a Wilcox caveat)
• BA Staff Mock Draft 6/4/20: Torkelson, Martin, Lacy, Hancock, Veen.  Nats take Dillon Dingler, C from Ohio State.
• Bleacher Report (Joe Tansy) 6/4/20 mock: Torkelson, Martin, Lacy, Veen, Hancock.  Nats taking Wilcox
• Prospect365 (Ian Smith) 6/6/20 Mock Draft 2.0:  Torkelson, Martin, Lacy, Veen, Hancock.  Nats on Dingler
• Fangraphs (Eric Longenhagen) Mock 2.0 6/8/20: Torkelson, Martin, Lacy, Veen, Meyer.  Nats take Wilcox but he says this is Crochet’s floor
• CBSSports (Mike Axisa): 6/8/20 mock: Torkelson, Martin, Lacy, Veen, Hancock.   Nats still taking Ginn (4th straight Axisa mock with them taking Ginn)
• Prospect365 (Mason McCrae) 6/8/20 Mock Draft v9.0: Torkelson, Martin, Lacy, Veen, Hancock.  Nats on Wilcox
• Baseball America (Carlos Collazo) 6/8/20 Mock Draft v7.0 ; Torkelson, Martin, Lacy,  Veen, Meyer.  Nats on Wilcox.
• Radio.com (Tim Kelly) 6/8/20  final Mock Draft: Torkelson, Martin, Lacy, Veen, Meyer.  Nats on Foscue.
• Yahoo Sports (Matt Weyrich) 6/9/20 Mock draft: Torkelson, Martin, Lacy, Veen, Meyer.  Nats take Wilcox
• DraftSite.com Mock Drafting site latest Mock: Torkelson, Martin, Lacy, Veen, Gonzales.  Nats take Wilcox
• RotoBaller.com (Marc Hulet) 6/9/20 mock: Veen, Martin, Lacy, Torkelson, Meyer.  Nats take Ed Howard, SS, Illinois HS (this mock really is hard to take seriously)
• D1Baseball staff 6/9/20 Final Mock draft: Torkelson, Martin, Lacy, Gonzales, Veen.  Nats take Ginn.
• 20/80 Baseball (Nick Faleras/Burke Granger) 6/9/20 mock draft: Torkelson, Martin, Lacy, Gonzales, Meyer.  Nats take Carmen Mlodzinski, RHP, South Carolina
• FanSided 6/10/20  Simulated Draft: Torkelson, Lacy, Martin, Gonzales, Veen.  Nats take Tyler Soderstrom, C, Turlock High School (CA) (mock draft done by bloggers representing teams)
• BleacherReport (Joel Reuter) 6/10/20 final mock: Torkelson, Martin, Lacy,  Veen, Meyer.  Nats on Wilcox
• TSN (Scott Mitchell) 6/10/20 final mock: Torkelson, Martin, Lacy, Gonzales, Veen.  Nats taking Casey Martin, SS Arkansas
• 20/80 Baseball (Nick Faleras/Burke Granger) 6/10/20 final mock draft: Torkelson, Martin, Lacy, Veen, Meyer.  Nats on Wilcox

Final Mocks per major pundit

• The Athletic (Keith Law) 6/10/20 Final Mock: Torkelson, Martin, Lacy, Veen, Meyer.  Nats on Wilcox again (but picking Mick Abel if he’s available)
• CBSSports (Mike Axisa): 6/9/20 final mock: Torkelson, Martin, Lacy, Veen, Hancock.   Nats still taking Ginn (no last minute changes from  his 6/8/20 mock)
• MLBpipeline (Jonathan Mayo) 6/10/20 final mock draft: Torkelson, Martin, Lacy, Veen, Meyer.  Nats on Bobby Miller, RHP Louisville as a fall-back if preferred arms don’t fall.
• MLBpipeline (Jim Callis) 6/10/20 final mock draft: Torkelson, Martin, Lacy, Veen, Meyer.  Nats on Bryce Jarvis, RHP Duke as a fall-back if the likes of Wilcox, Beeter unavailable.
• ESPN (Kiley McDaniel) 6/10/20 final mock draft: Torkelson, Martin, Lacy, Hancock, Meyer,  Nats take Austin Hendrick, prep OF from PA HS.
• Baseball America (Carlos Collazo) 6/10/20 final Mock Draft v8.0 ; Torkelson, Martin, Lacy,  Veen, Meyer.  Nats on Wilcox.
• Fangraphs (Eric Longenhagen) Mock 3.0 6/10/20: Torkelson, Martin, Lacy, Veen, Meyer.  Nats take Wilcox but he says other Boras guys make sense too.

Mock draft posters from past years who didn’t seem to do one this year.:

• D1Baseball (Frankie Piliere); took a job with Seattle, no longer at d1baseball.
• HeroSports.com (Christopher Crawford); moved to nbcsports/roto world, now focused only on fantasy impact.
• MinorleagueBall.com (John Sickels); moved to TheAthletic, site dead.
• SI.com (Jay Jaffe), now with Fangraphs, so probably not doing prospect work anymore.
• Baseball America (John Manuel): seems to have passed the torch at BA to Collazo
• Baseball Draft Report (Rob Ozga); Last post was Sept 2018; out of business?
• Seedlings to the Stars/Calltothepen.com: main writer left to form Video Baseball Scout.
• Prospect Digest (Joseph Werner); hasn’t covered the draft since 2018
• Video Baseball Scout; no mocks in 2020 after a bunch in 2019
• SportingNews.com (Joe Rivera): didn’t do his own mock; cut and pasted mocks from Law, Callis, Axisa

Draft Rankings: these are prospect ranking lists, NOT mock drafts.

• The Athletic (Keith Law): Top 30 prospects for 2020 draft, and then top 100 prospects for 2020 draft.
• MLBPipeline (Callis & Mayo): Top 200 Draft Board
• BaseballAmerica: Top 500 Draft board
• Fangraphs; 2020 Draft Board
• ESPN (Kiley McDaniel) top 150 draft prospects for 2020
• CBSSports (R.J Anderson): top 50 for 2020 draft
• D1baseball.com: top 100 and then top 101-250 for 2020 draft (College players only)
• 20/80 Baseball top 125 for 2020 draft.  Detailed notes on top 25.
• PerfectGame 2020 Draft Rankings database/top 400 players for 2020 (all but top 10 behind a paywall)

Past prospect rankers that are not doing ranks this year

• Baseball Draft Report (Rob Ozga); stopped writing sept 2018, one cryptic post in July 2019, seems like he was working for a team but no new content.
• Video Baseball Scout; no rankings for 2020; site may have died
• MinorLeagueBall.com site dead, John Sickels now at the Athletic

Todd Boss’ Mock draft top-5 prediction?

My top 5 prediction: Torkelson, Martin, Lacy, Veen, Hancock.  I think Veen sneaks in and Gonzales falls out of the top 5, making someone in the 6-7 range very happy.

Who are the Nats going to take at #22?

We’ve talked about this a lot in the comments, but i’ll summarize my thoughts.  Here’s what the Nats like to take in the 1st round:

• College
• College Arm
• College Arm from either Texas/Oklahoma area or a SEC arm
• College Arm who was higher ranked earlier in the process but has fallen for some reason (injury, discipline) so they think they can get “value”
• College arm who is advised by Scott Boras or who is similarly “famous” for some reason or another.

All of these things point to one guy; J.T. Ginn.  Only now it seems like Ginn is falling entirely out of the 1st round and may be had later on.  Kinda like how a few years back the Nats were attached with Alex Meyer at the 6th overall pick at one point … then were able to take him later on in the 1st.

So i’m going to predict the team skips Ginn, sees if they can sign him in the 2nd for 1st round money, and will take Cole Wilcox in the 1st.  Wilcox is also the Nats’ kinda guy; SEC school, big arm, big numbers, and a player who they’ve already tipped their hand on (picking him in the 2018 draft with one of their late 30th round throw-away picks).

Signability in this weird season is a factor of course.  The Nats have $6.6M to sign players this year; why wouldn’t they throw $3M at two players then punt the rest on college seniors?  Kinda like what the Mets did last year.

My prediction: Wilcox.

MLB.com Draft Tracker

ACTUAL TOP 5 DRAFT Results (added after the draft); Torkelson, Kjerstad, Meyer, Lacy, Martin.

What happened?

Actual Nats #22 Pick (added after the draft): Cade Cavalli, RHP from Oklahoma.  Not one mock draft ever had him going to the Nats.  None.  The team passes on a number of college arms that they had been linked to that are still on the board (Wilcox, Cecconi, Ginn, etc) to go with the big arm from Oklahoma.