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Nats Major & Minor League Pitching Staffs vs last fall’s Predictions 2016 Version

Giolito’s in AA to start … does he ever even see AAA? Photo Eric Dearborn via win-for-teddy blog

After reviewing all the 2015 pitching staffs, I projected where I thought everyone would start in 2016.

Now that the four full-season affiliates have been announced, lets see how my predictions turned out. As always, the Big Board (maintained by SpringfieldFan) is a great resource to track everyone.

Notations here: * = lefty, ^ == new off-season acquisition. Also, “Missing” usually means “Stuck in Extended Spring Trianing/XST” or in organizational limbo.

MLB Predicted

Rotation: Scherzer, Strasburg, Ross, Gonzalez*, Roark
Bullpen: Papelbon, Treinen, Rivero*, Perez*^, Kelley^, Gott^, Petit^
D/L: Barrett (60-day DL)
out of organization: Zimmermann, Fister, Storen (traded), Thornton*, Janssen, Carpenter, Stammen (non-tendered)

MLB Actual Opening day

Rotation: Scherzer, Strasburg, Gonzalez*, Ross, Roark
Bullpen: Papelbon, Treinen, Rivero*, Perez*, Kelley, Belisle, Petit
D/L: Barrett (60-day DL)

Discussion: only one surprise from the pre-Spring Training prediction for this team: Matt Belisle makes the team ahead of Trevor Gott. Otherwise everyone is in the roles they were acquired to hold. There was some question about whether Blake Treinen would get optioned early in the spring, but not now. The order of the starters wasn’t right: Ross is being treated like the 4th starter and Roark the 3rd, I guess.

It probably wasn’t too hard to predict 12 out of the 13 spots in the MLB roster, so we won’t pat ourselves on the back too much. Lets talk minors.

AAA Predicted

Rotation: Cole, Jordan, Espino, Voth, Laffey*^, THill, Arroyo^
Bullpen: Martin, Solis*, Grace*, Brady^, Bacus, de los Santos, Runion, Velasquez^, Masset^, EDavis, Burnett*^
Release Candidates: McGregor, Walters
out of organization: Billings, Bleier*, Swynenberg, Fornataro, Meek, Runion, Lively, Gutierrez, Valverde, Delcarmen, RHill, Overton

AAA Actual

starters: Cole, Jordan, Espino, THill, Voth
spot starts/swingman: Laffey*
bullpen: Martin, Solis*, Grace*, Runion, Massett, EDavis, Gott
dl/restricted: Arroyo, Brady
in AA: Bacus, de los Santos
missing: no one
cut/released/FAs: McGregor, Velasquez, Walters, Burnett (opted-out)

Discussion: No surprises in the Rotation: we predicted 7 guys in the AAA rotation competition and ended up with the 5 we predicted, a 6th as the swing-man/spot starter and the 7th (Arroyo) on the D/L for the time being.

The bullpen has some surprises: Gott as previously mentioned was projected in the majors; the other 6 bullpen members were in the 10 projected guys competing for the AAA spots. Two guys got pushed to AA. Brady starts on the D/L. Both my release candidates did in fact get released, along with off-season MLFA Velasquez. The real surprise making the AAA team was Masset.

Burnett opted out when he didn’t make the MLB team, but it wasn’t a stretch to predict that happening.

No real projection surprises though, all in all. Nobody who we projected to start in AA got moved up; only a couple guys who got moved down (Bacus and de los Santos). I’m slightly surprised de los Santos is in AA and it makes me question even more his 40-man add and usage last year (3 days of service time and now two options blown).

AA Projected

Rotation: Spann*, Giolito, Simms, Alderson, RLopez, Mapes, Gorski^
Bullpen: Mendez, Harper*, Shackelford^, NLee*, Benincasa, Suero, Thomas*, Walsh*, Robinson^, Whiting^
Release Candidates: Rauh, Bates, Self, Dupra
out of organization: Purke*, Pivetta, Simmons, Demny, Ambriz, Gilliam

AA Announced

starters: Giolito, Simms, RLopez, AWilliams, Mapes
spot starts/swingman:
bullpen: Mendez, Harper*, NLee*, Suero, Fish*, Bacus, Gutierrez, de los Santos
In High-A: Thomas*, Robinson, Whiting, Rauh, Self
dl/restricted: none
missing: Spann*, Alderson, Shackelford, Benincasa, Bates
cut/released/FAs: Gorski, Walsh*, Dupra

Discussion:

The big surprise here is that Austen Williams made the AA team; I had him at High-A. Perhaps it isn’t THAT big of a surprise given how well he pitched last year, but it does seem to go away from the Nats’ proclivities to start guys at their prior season’s level and have them “earn” early to mid-season promotions. He joins a pretty high powered duo of Giolito and Lopez. Gorski was an off-season MLFA brought in for competition and he didn’t win. Only one of my four release candidates was in fact released (Dupra): the other three got dumped to XLS or High-A, which is good for them but not good for the massive log-jam of recently drafted college arms who need spots in A-ball.

In the bullpen, we’ve talked before about the surprising release of Jake Walsh. There’s 5 guys stuck in XST limbo for now, a couple of which are release candidates. One name that popped out of the blue is Robert Fish, who signed an under-the radar MLFA deal in mid February and who apparently hasn’t pitched professionally in two full seasons. He must have had a pretty good spring.

High-A Projected

Rotation: AWilliams, Fedde, Valdez, Dickson, Bach*, Van Orden,
Bullpen: Johanssen, Amlung (swingman), Napoli*, Orlan*, Glover, Brinley, Sylvestre*
Release Candidates: RPena, Turnbull*
out of organization: Schwartz, Howell, CDavis, MRodriguez, Cooper (just released)

High-A Announced

starters: Fedde, Valdez, Estevez, LReyes, Whiting
spot starts/swingman: Sanchez,
bullpen: Brinley, Glover, Johansen, Orlan*, Robinson, Self, Thomas*
dl/restricted: Rauh, Sylvestre*, Turnbull*
missing: Bach*
cut/released/FAs: Walsh, Dupra, Dickson, Van Orden, Amlung, Napoli*

Discussion: My High-A predictions show just how out of whack my “reading the stat lines” predictions can be, especially for starters.

In the Rotation, AWilliams earned a jump to AA. I thought Dickson and Van Orden were solid rotation candidates; instead they got released. Lastly, I thought both Estevez and Reyes were repeating Hagerstown; Estevez missed the whole season and Reyes posted a 4.82 ERA there last year. Instead they’re opening day starters for Potomac. Not even close here.

In the Bullpen, we got Johanssen, Orlan, Glover, Brinley, Sylvestre and Turnbull right (not too bad prediction wise), though the last couple guys are on the D/L and still may be release candidates. Who did we miss on? Robinson was an off-season MLFA (who signs MLFAs for high-A?), and Sanchez I had projected to repeat after posting a 4.86 in Hagerstown last year.

Low-A Projected

Rotation: LReyes, JRodriguez, ALee, Dickey, Hearn*, Crownover*
Bullpen: MSanchez (swingman), Guilbeau*, Borne*, Rivera Jr., Gunter, Peterson, Baez
release candidate: Estevez, DWilliams, DRamos, Boghosian, Mooney, Pirro
out of organization: Ullmann, KPerez, Mooneyham, Johns (just released)

Low-A Actual

starters: JRodriguez, ALee, Hearn*, Crownover*, Guilbeau*, Bach,
spot starts/swingman:
bullpen: Rivera Jr, Peterson, Baez, VanVossen, LTorres, RPena, DeRosier,
dl/restricted: JMorales
missing: Dickey, Borne*, Gunter, DRamos, Mooney, Pirro
cut/released/FAs: Amlung, Van Orden, Napoli*, DWilliams, Boghosian

Discussion

From a starter standpoint, we did a pretty good job projecting who would be in Hagerstown’s rotation. Four of the Six projected candidates “seem” like they’re in the rotation (full disclosure, we’re kind of guessing who these teams are using as starters until we see the first turn through the rotation). The misses? LReyes, who surprisingly is in High-A, and Guilbeau, who I thought would be on the team but in a relief role.

In the bullpen; we missed on Sanchez (who made High-A), Borne and Gunter (both of whom are in XST for now). In their place are a slew of guys who I was projecting to be elsewhere. I thought both VanVossen and DeRosier were release candidates after poor 2015 seasons in Short-A; instead they’re in the opening day bullpen. I had LTorres in the Short-A bullpen after mostly failing as a short-A starter.

Lastly there’s Bach and RPena; I had both projected in Potomac. I thought Bach had a perfectly good Low-A season last year and has nothing yet to prove in the Sally League. Pena returns to Hagerstown for the third time; he pitched in Low-A in 2013 and 2014. You have to think this is a planned short stint before he returns to at least High-A.

No real surprises in the “Missing/XST” crew: Dickey is the biggest profile name here but it seems to me he was injured last year so its hard to pass judgement on his stats anywhere. Borne‘s numbers were basically identical to the likes of Hearn and Guilbeau’s; he missed out in the 2016 competition. Gunter might make sense as a mid-season promotion to cover for injury. Ramos was hurt most of the year last year.

In the “release candidate” section, I was clearly wrong about Estevez. DWilliams and Boghosian have already indeed been released. And both Mooney/Pirro missed out on the full-season roster and are in XST limbo.

Let the games begin! Are there surprises for you guys in these rosters?

Written by Todd Boss

April 7th, 2016 at 12:39 pm

2016 Opening Day Roster surprises

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Belisle makes the team. Photo by John McDonnell of the WP

Once the team finished up with its FA and trading business this past off-season, the eventual 2016 25-man roster seemed rather predictable (to me anyway). For months, I figured it was safe to assume we were looking at the following configuration for 2016 (barring injury):

SP: Scherzer, Strasburg, Gonzalez*, Ross, Roark
RP: Papelbon, Treinen, Gott, Kelley, Perez*, Rivero*, Petit
C: Ramos, Lobaton
INF: Zimmerman, Murphy, Espinosa, Rendon, Drew, Robinson, Moore
OF: Harper, Werth, Revere, Taylor
60 day DL: Barrett

Perhaps you could quibble that Tyler Moore wasn’t a lock , that he was always in competition with the slew of RH-hitting veterans brought in to camp this year (I didn’t necessarily think this once they offered him a contract for 2016). Perhaps you could have argued that Danny Espinosa wasn’t the presumptive starter ahead of Trea Turner. Perhaps you could argue that the team was going to do something crazy with Tanner Roark vs Bronson Arroyo.

But towards the end of Spring Training, I was proven wrong as the team made some interesting choices to start the season.

With the final announced moves prior to opening day, here’s the 25-man roster starting out the season:

SP: Scherzer, Strasburg, Gonzalez*, Ross, Roark
RP: Papelbon, Treinen, Kelley, Belisle, Perez*, Rivero*, Petit
C: Ramos, Lobaton
INF: Zimmerman, Murphy, Espinosa, Rendon, Drew, Robinson
OF: Harper, Werth, Revere, Taylor, Heisey

Lets talk about the last minute announcements and the surprises:

Tyler Moore waived, outrighted and then traded to Atlanta. Probably not a huge surprise; one can argue that the only reason Moore wasn’t waived LAST spring training was thanks to the slew of injuries the team suffered. He hasn’t been successful as a PH, he never could replicate the success he had in his rookie year, and he really could only play 1B. The team made a conscious effort to bring in veterans to compete with him, and the likes of Scott Sizemore, Chris Heisey, Reed Johnson, Stephen Drew all out-performed Moore in one way or another. And all those guys can play other positions besides the sedentary 1B.
Chris Heisey making the team: Personally I thought Sizemore had the inside track, but he was assigned to minor league camp early. In fact, when you look at their stats its a head scratcher: Sizemore hit .324 with a ton of power while Heisey hit just .238 but came on strong towards the end of spring training. Moreover, Sizemore plays infield while Heisey only plays outfield … so Sizemore is presumably a more valuable player defensively. Cynics will note that Heisey has played for Baker before. At least Sizemore stuck with the team and accepted a minor league assignment. Honestly I also thought the team would have considered Drew before Heisey, again for positional flexibility.
Matt Belisle ‘s contract guaranteed, and he makes the team instead of off-season acquisition Trevor Gott. By the ST numbers this move makes some sense; Belisle’s ERA and WHIP was decent while Gott’s was respectable if not eyepopping. Once again, the cynic again would say this is entirely due to the options availability on Gott and Belisle’s history of playing for Baker. I’m slightly surprised they didn’t go with 8 relievers since a 5th starter isn’t needed for a while.
Espinosa over Turner: never in question for me once we hired Dusty Baker, but many pundits seem shocked that Turner is in AAA to start the season. Scouts seem to have forgotten that Espinosa was a *better* shortstop than Ian Desmond all these years, but played 2nd base and 2nd fiddle thanks to seniority (in the same way that the superior Manny Machado played 3B instead of taking over at short for a veteran … and now is “stuck” there despite being one of the best SS prospects of his generation).
Roark over Arroyo: this one solved itself early, when Arroyo ~~tore his UCL tore his labrum tore his rotator~~ strained his rotator cuff while Roark was throwing zeros for the spring. I continue to be in the camp that Roark, if just left alone and given a rotation spot, will produce at a high level (just like he did in 2014). I think his 2015 was completely an aberration, an example of how playing guys out of position ends up with sub-optimal performance (ahem, see Jurgen Klinsmann and the US Mens National Team’s ridiculous 2-0 loss to Guatemala last week in WC qualifying).

What do you guys think? Do you think Belisle over Gott, Heisey over Sizemore or Drew (or even den Dekker), Espinosa over turner make this a better team starting out? Or do you feel like Dusty has gotten some of his “buddies” back together and he’s valuing relationships over talent to start the season?

Better question: Will it matter? I mean, we’re talking about the 7th man in the bullpen (who may get 1 inning the first week) and the last guy off the bench (who might get 2 or 3 low-leverage ABs the first week). Is this making a mountain out of a mole-hill, or is it more about the principle of the issue?

Written by Todd Boss

April 2nd, 2016 at 8:28 am

Posted in Nats in General

Tagged with bronson arroyo, burke badenhop, chris heisey, danny espinosa, ian desmond, jurgen klinsmann, manny machado, matt belisle, matt den dekker, reed johnson, scott sizemore, sean burnett, stephen drew, tanner roark, trea turner, trevor gott, tyler moore

Spring Training 2016 NRI discussion

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Arroyo could be a surprise NRI making the 25-man roster. Photo via google images

We discussed Non-Roster Invitees (NRI) last year (link to 2015’s post) at the behest of reader forensicane, and it was such a good topic that, upon seeing yesterday’s announcement from the various Nats beat writers (here’s James Wagner from the WP’s post), I thought I’d put up a post where we could discuss.

Reminder from last year; there were 20 NRIs; two made the 25-man roster out of spring (Dan Uggla and Clint Robinson), two others eventually got added and called up (Rafael Martin and Emmanuel Burriss) and two others were young catchers since added to the 40-man (Spencer Kieboom, Pedro Severino), so these are not throw-away players. The odds of several of these names playing a part in this team’s future is high, even past the obvious candidates (i.e. those listed at or near the top of prospect lists).

Like last year, we’ll go by position and discuss their chances for making the team, staying with the franchise, and (depending on their roster status) their future plans with the team in general (the below format is cut-n-pasted from Wagner’s post).

Catchers (1)

RHH Jhonatan Solano

Discussion: Solano, the long time Nats-farm hand, returns to the fold after being released ahead of an options crunch in Nov 2014 and spending 2015 toiling for Miami’s AAA team alongside his brother. He did get 20 MLB at bats in 2015 … and went 1-for-20. He’s back, though his odds of breaking ahead of any of the four catchers we have on the roster seems very slim right now, even given the known offensive limitations of both MLB-projected catchers. Now, were one of Ramos or Lobaton go down with injury … that might open things up. Would you rather depend on one of the two rookies on the 40-man as your backup or at least go with someone like Solano, who has at least a few MLB at bats over the past few years under his belt? Neither A or B are good options, and you might think that the “Jonathan Lucroy to Washington” future plan may pick up speed at that point.

Odds of any of these NRIs making the 25-man roster: Negligible unless there’s an injury.

Future plans: Solano back to AAA once again as depth if there’s an injury; he may be flat out released if not since both Severino and Kieboom seem destined to head to AAA to split catching duties.

Infielders (4)

RHH Jason Martinson
RHH Brendan Ryan
RHH Scott Sizemore
LHH Matt Skole

Discussion: The team is quite familiar with both Martinson and Skole; both being draft picks and both being relatively close to the end of their tenure here. Martinson has quietly climbed the ranks but hit just .218 in AAA last year; what he has though is power. 21 homers and corner infield capabilities (he was a SS coming out of college but quickly moved to 3B). I view him as “Tyler Moore” insurance and the team likely has him at camp to see if he’s at all a possible option in case something bad happens. Skole has long been a personal favorite, a former Nats minor league player of the year whose promising career was derailed by a season-long injury in 2013. He took a big step back in 2015, not making the AAA team out of spring but eventually getting there mid-season. He also has power (20 combined homers last year) but from the left hand side while also playing corner infield. I view him as “Clint Robinson” insurance.

Meanwhile, both Ryan and Sizemore seemingly are competing for the second “backup utility infielder” role on this team, one that without any other moves would go to someone like Wilmer Difo or perhaps Danny Espinosa were the team to decide to go with Trea Turner from day one. I don’t see that happening; I think Difo showed he needs more seasoning, I think the team wants a veteran at short and either Sizemore or (more likely) Ryan makes this team as the 2nd utility guy.

Odds of any of these NRIs making the 25-man roster: High: I think Ryan breaks camp with the team.

Future plans: Martinson and Skole back in AAA, Sizemore may have an opt-out but may not since he was in AAA most of last year.

Outfielders (4)

LHH Tony Campana
RHH Chris Heisey
RHH Reed Johnson
LHH Logan Schafer

Discussion: Schafer was brought in presumably to compete with Matt den Dekker as a speedy CF-capable 5th outfielder type. Problem is that Schafer can’t hit: career .212 hitter with a meager career .319 slugging. Campana? Same story; the 5’8″ backup outfielder didn’t even appear in the majors last year and has just one homer in 477 career MLB appearances. den Dekker showed some promise at the end of last season and seems like he’s the first guy to get called up if/when there’s an injury in the outfield.

So lets talk about the two guys who do have some consideration. The team knows exactly what it has with Johnson: an aging scrappy veteran who can play a corner OF and be a good clubhouse presence. Sounds like Jayson Werth minus 6 inches of height and $120M of contract. I think they invited him just as saying “thanks and sorry about last year.” Meanwhile, some are talking about Heisey having a shot at this roster: I think maybe. If the team is looking to upgrade the Tyler Moore “right-handed pinch hitter off the bench” role, then Heisey is his competition. He’s somewhat accomplished; he has never really started in his career but hit 18 homers as a part-timer in Cincinnati a few years back. But his bat has been just as meager as Moore’s lately: he hit just .223 combined across several AAA levels last year. Of course, all of those figures are better than what Moore has done lately, and Heisey likely is cheaper than Moore for 2016 (Moore signed a pre-arb deal of $900k but of course could be released mid-spring training without the Nats having to pay a ton of his guaranteed salary).

The question becomes; is Heisey’s positional flexibility (he’s an OF who can play CF in a pinch while Moore can basically only play 1B) going to win out over Moore’s long tenure with the team? Maybe.

Odds of any of these NRIs making the 25-man roster: Pretty good: Heisey seems like he could beat out Moore for the RH bench bat.

Future plans: we don’t have a ton of depth at the OF position in AAA; i’m sure one or both of Schafer/Campana could stick around. Johnson could elect to retire if he doesn’t make the team at his advanced age. Heisey could stick around or could have an opt-out if he doesn’t make the squad.

Starting Pitchers (6)

RHP Bronson Arroyo
RHP Paolo Espino
RHP Lucas Giolito
RHP Taylor Hill
LHP Aaron Laffey
RHP Austin Voth

Discussion: Thanks to FA departures and starter conversions, the Nats now have just seven starters on their 40-man roster. Scherzer, Strasburg, Gonzalez*, Ross, Roark, Cole, Jordan. Where as last year the team could afford to send a 5-win starter to the mop-up role, this year they’re one injury from really having to answer some very serious questions. Which is probably why they have signed Bronson Arroyo honestly; despite throwing up low-to-mid 80s heat, he has remained relatively effective deep into his 30s.

In reality though, the Nats real SP depth is seen directly in the NRIs; in order Giolito, Voth and Espino. These three guys are who this team likely turns to if the injury bug really bites the projected rotation. I’m on record saying that Giolito is going to be up in 2016; might as well get him used to seeing MLB hitters (or close to it, depending on when they give him innings). In reality, nobody on this list projects to have a shot at cracking the 2016 rotation save for injury. The big question really comes down to Arroyo versus Roark for the 5th spot. Is it likely that Roark gets dumped back to the bullpen again, causing a cascading series of bullpen moves (Petit to middle relief, Treinen likely to AAA)? Not that likely but you never know, and Dusty Baker certainly goes way back with Arroyo. I think its a certainty that the NRI prospects don’t break camp with the squad … but Arroyo could have a shot.

Can’t wait for Spring Training games though to get a glimpse of Giolito on the mound…

Odds of any of these NRIs making the 25-man roster: Decent for Arroyo.

Future plans: Four of these six NRIs will form the bulk of the Syracuse rotation (Espino, Hill, Laffey, Voth), to be joined with Cole and Jordan for the core rotation in upstate NY. I’ve projected Giolito to start back in AA and prove he can dominate that level before moving up and bumping someone like Laffey or Hill from the AAA rotation. That leaves Arroyo; if he doesn’t make the team, I’m guessing he’s opting out instead of lowering himself to riding buses in AAA.

Relief Pitchers (5)

RHP Michael Brady
LHP Sean Burnett
RHP Erik Davis
RHP Nick Masset
RHP Wander Suero

Discussion: While the 40-man roster of starters is thin (7), the Nats now have no less than thirteen (!) relievers on their 40-man roster. That’s a lot of arms. Only 7 of them are making the MLB bullpen, and for the most part you can ink in the opening day rotation by looking at the acquisitions the team has done since July of last year. So not a lot of room in the inn for NRI relievers. Davis gets the invite despite getting dumped off of the 40-man roster probably as one last ditch effort to show the MLB staff he can still pitch. Long time Nat Burnett returns to the fold coming off of a second TJ, probably given the NRI for sentimental reasons more than anything. Brady and Masset are new acquisitions (one by trade, one by MLFA) who both project to be Syracuse middle relief (where my pre-season analysis also showed a massive glut of arms), while Suero’s callup seems like an audition to be added to the 40-man roster ahead of next off season’s rule 5 draft, since Suero just finished his 6th pro season and will be exposed next December.

Odds of any of these NRIs making the 25-man roster: Nil: the Nats have way too many relievers already and none of these guys projects to be better than what we already have on the 40-man.

Future plans: Brady, Davis, Masset to AAA, Suero to AA, Burnett opts-out looking for a MLB loogy job after proving he’s healthy again on the Nats spring training meal money dime.

Summary

I think there’s a good chance of at least one and perhaps two NRIs to make the 25-man roster.

Written by Todd Boss

February 16th, 2016 at 3:08 pm

2014 Tommy John Post-Mortem

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Jose Fernandez is (arguably) the biggest name to go down to TJ surgery yet. Photo via thestar.com

Jose Fernandez was (arguably) the biggest name to go down to TJ surgery in 2014. Photo via thestar.com

When we hit 20 MLB pitchers going under the knife for blown Ulnar Collateral Ligaments (UCL) on the 2014 season, I posted on possible reasons for the epidemic. By the time the season was over, more than 90 players in professional baseball (and a handful of marquee amateurs, including two first round picks and our own) had gone under the knife for blown UCLs/Tommy John surgery. 2014 was the year of the elbow ligament, no question, in terms of volume and awareness.

This post lists all the major league pitchers who had the surgery this year, with links to the announcements as they happened, along with stills of the pitchers’ mechanics to do a quickie thumb nail analysis of mechanics and whether there’s a relationship to the injury. At the bottom i’ve captured any significant news related to the surgery, MLB being proactive in preventing the injuries, and other TJ news.

First, here’s the complete Tommy John fall-out for the year for major league arms. According to the great injury tracking links below, no less than 91 players in all levels of pro baseball had the surgery in calendar year 2014, of which 29 were MLB-experienced pitchers.

(data from baseballheatmaps.com, which has detailed Disabled List data).

Jonny Venters, recovering from his 2nd TJ surgery, re-tore the ligament and is going for his THIRD.
Jeremy Hefner, already on the shelf from a TJ surgery *last* year, suffered a big set-back and may have to have a 2nd procedure (announced 8/11/14)
Tyler Skaggs was diagnosed on 8/10/14 with needing the surgery.
Nate Jones: diagnosed 7/31/14.
Tyler Chatwood: diagnosed 7/17/14
Masahiro Tanaka, diagnosed with torn UCL 7/10/14; a huge blow, nearly as big of an announcement as Jose Fernandez’ if he has to get TJ surgery. No announcement yet though that he’s having the surgery. But, as of 8/5/14 he’s re-habbing and experiencing no pain while throwing, and eventually was able to avoid the surgery. For now.
Bronson Arroyo diagnosed 7/8/14, a surprise considering his durability and soft-tossing nature.
Trevor Bell, diagnosed 4/23/14 but finally getting the surgery 7/16/14.
(… we go more than a month without another diagnosis after getting them nearly daily in April and May. Odd).
Sean Burnett: diagnosed 5/28/14 (would be his 2nd)
Chris Withrow: diagnosed 5/29/14 (though technically he’d been optioned to AAA; not sure if this should count as a MLBer)
Martin Perez: diagnosed 5/15/14
Jose Cisnero: diagnosed 5/14/14.
Jose Fernandez: diagnosed 5/13/14. Wow, biggest name to fall yet.
AJ Griffin: getting the surgery 4/27/14
Pedro Figueroa: diagnosed 4/24/14 (his 2nd, first in 2010)
Ivan Nova: diagnosed 4/25/14
Josh Johnson: diagnosed/announced 4/23/14, surgery 4/24/14. His 2nd (first in 2007).
Matt Moore: surgery 4/22/14
Cory Gearrin: diagnosed 4/8/14
Bobby Parnell: diagnosed 4/2/14
Erik Davis: diagnosed 4/2/14
David Hernandez: diagnosed 3/31/14
Peter Moylan: diagnosed 3/22/14 (his 2nd)
Bruce Rondon: diagnosed 3/21/14
Patrick Corbin: diagnosed 3/17/14
Jarrod Parker: diagnosed 3/17/14. (his 2nd)
Brandon Beachy: diagnosed 3/17/14 (his 2nd)
Kris Medlen: diagnosed 3/9/14. (his 2nd)
Luke Hochevar: announced 3/7/14
Cory Luebke: surgery in 2/4/14 (his 2nd)

10 of these 29 pitchers are getting the surgery for the 2nd time. Wow.

Here’s links to other notable non-MLB pitchers who have gotten the surgery as well in 2014:

Jamison Taillon: the Pirates #1 pitching prospect and one of the best pitching prospects in the game. Diagnosed 4/6/14, surgery 4/9/14.
Danny Rosenbaum: Nats AAA starter and long-time farmhand. Surgery 5/8/14. Tough for Rosenbaum because he’s a MLFA this coming off-season, now facing a very uncertain future.
Miguel Sano: one of the best prospects in the minors, had the surgery 3/12/14. He’s not a pitcher, and he initially injured his arm playing in the Dominican Winter League, but it still costs Minnesota one of its best prospects.
Jeff Hoffman, ECU’s right handed starter and consensus top 5 pick in the 2014 draft, hurt his arm and was diagnosed on 5/8/14. He dropped 5 places from his likely drafting spot by the Cubs at #4, which cost him about $X in slot dollars. We talked about whether the Nats (picking at #18) were a likely suitor for him at the time of the injury in early May.
Erick Fedde, UNLV’s friday starter and projected mid-1st round pick, was diagnosed two days after Hoffman on 5/10/14. He dropped perhaps 8 places from his estimated drafting spot of mid 1st round and was picked by Washington. His injury didn’t really cost him much in slot money thanks to the Nats paying over-slot.
Our own Matthew Purke, diagnosed and set for TJ surgery 5/29/14 after really struggling out of the gate this year for Harrisburg. Purke may face an options crunch by the time he’s done re-habbing, thanks to his MLB deal signed on draft-day. (Update: the Nats never let him get there, releasing him on 11/14/14).
Chad Billingsley having flexor tendon surgery while trying to recover from his 2013 TJ surgery. This isn’t counted as a TJ, but is noteworthy.
Not a pitcher, but key Orioles player Matt Wieters had to have TJ surgery on 6/18/14.
Matt Cain dodged a bullet by just being diagnosed with elbow chips, but still had season-ending elbow surgery on 8/5/14.
Padres uber-prospect and 2012 first rounder Max Fried went under the knife in mid-august.
Yu Darvish didn’t fall victim to the TJ surgery, but an elbow issue is shutting him down in late August, just the latest nail in the coffin of the Rangers’ season.
Jonathan Mayo discussion on elbow surgeries and prospects from Mid-Late August.

Here’s quickie images of every MLB starter diagnosed this year as they land to make a quick judgement about their mechanics:

CisnerJose landing FernandezJose landing

Quick and Dirty Mechanics analysis (images in same order as list of pitchers above, which is chronological in order of diagnosis in 2014):

Inverted W: Hefner, Skaggs, Withrow, Griffin, Nova, Gearrin, Beachy, Hochevar
Sideways M: Ventors, Chatwood, Bell, Burnett, Fernandez, Johnson, Davis, Moylan, Rondon, Parker, Medlen
Inverted L: Jones, Tanaka, Arroyo, Perez, Cisnero, Figueroa, Moore, Parnell, Hernandez, Corbin, Luebke

Conclusions? None. They’re all over the road. TJ injuries this year happened to those thought to have “dangerous” mechanics and clean mechanics. TJ injuries happened to the league’s harder throwers (Rondon, Ventors, Fernandez) and its softest throwers (Medlen and Arroyo, both of whom are usually at the absolute bottom of the league in terms of fastball velocity). Starters and relievers, no discernable pattern.

I think all you can conclude is this: if you throw a lot of innings, you’re more prone to injury. I know, ground breaking analysis.

Other notable/interesting links I’ve collected on the topic over the length of the season:

Yahoo’s Tim Brown interviewed Zack Greinke (published 5/15/14)who says he made a conscious decision to throw fewer sliders, noting that he could really feel it in his elbow after starts where he threw too many. This tends to support the notion that sliders make a difference.
Jerry Crasnick interviewed commissioner Bud Selig on 5/15/14 and Selig said he’s “concerned.” Great! On a scale of “Resolve Oakland/San Jose territorial rights” concerned to “Resolve MASN dispute” concerned, I wonder where he falls? Maybe he’ll form a blue-ribbon committee that can meet for several years without arriving at any solutions.
Stephania Bell‘s articles on the spate of TJ injuries: from April and again in May.
Nate Silver‘s new blog 538 chimes in in mid-may.
Neil Weinberg from Peter Gammons‘ website posts his own theory on 5/16/14 that is basically related to the rise in youth/showcase events.
Shawn Anderson from the blog HallofVeryGood.com posts his theory (overuse).
An older link to Will Carrol from July 2013 talking about the surgery, how its done, who’s had it and some other great stuff.
The American Sports Medicine Institute (led by Dr. James Andrews) released a statement on 5/28/14 on the issue of Tommy John surgeries (as pointed out by David Schoenfield and/or Craig Calcaterra in late may and/or Jerry Crasnick on the same day). Their basic point: don’t throw with max effort.
Dr. James Andrews announced that he’s releasing an app to help keep pitchers healthy. Per screen shots, it will be relatively simple and will have pitch counts, age and rest days calculate a max number of pitchers that a player can throw today.
An interesting analysis of Kansas City’s Yordano Ventura after he was diagnosed with a non-UCL related elbow injury in May.
Thoughtful piece from Dirk Hayhurst about the quest for velocity and the value of soft-throwers like Mark Buehrle.
Danny Knobler special piece to the BleacherReport in June 2014 discussing “child abuse” of kids over-throwing, throwing too much, too hard, too soon.
A sleeve has been announced that may help prevent TJ injuries (its called the Motus Pitcher Sleeve). Dirk Hayhurst subsequently did some research and interviews about the sleeve and offers some thoughts.
CBS’s Jon Heyman breaks the news that #1 overall pick Brady Aiken may have an “elbow ligament issue,” thus holding up the signing. Wow. As we all know, this turned into a big-time stalemate, the non-signing of Aiken (which cascaded down and cost the Astros their 5th round pick too), possible grievances, possible lawsuits, all sorts of NCAA eligibility concerns, and a whole big black-mark for the Astros organization. All over $1.5M. Remember; this is the same team that gave $30M last off-season to 5th starter Scott Feldman.
There was a two hour special on the injury on MLB Radio Networks on 7/17/14 that I hope they replay or transcribe to the internet.
Bud Selig still awaits the Tommy John study in Mid July 2014. If its anything like his other blue-ribbon panels, he’ll be waiting a long time.
Discussion about youths with UCL/TJ injuries in USA Today on 7/23/14.
Study from USA Today on how prep pitchers are avoiding TJ.
MLB unveils “Pitch Smart” guide in Mid November to help youth’s understand workloads. Also discussed by Jeff Passan.

Hope you’ve found this trove of TJ links as interesting as I have.

Written by Todd Boss

November 24th, 2014 at 8:28 am

Statistics and Rentention rates of Arbitration case players

23 comments

Remember when the team took this guy to Arbitration? Photo: Nats official photo day via deadspin.com

Just as the optimism of the new baseball season begins to flourish every February, as pitchers and catchers report and fans start to get excited for the newseason, some teams and players get to experience one of the more unpleasant realities of the modern baseball game; Arbitration hearings.

The 2013 “arbitration season” was the first since 1974 that didn’t feature a single case of player versus club, perhaps a sign that teams are finally understanding just how damaging these cases can be. Players are forced to sit and listen to their clubs argue just how mediocore or awful they are just to save (in some cases) a few hundred thousand dollars. The teams use whatever statistical slant they need to prove or disprove their points, depend heavily on out-dated/old school stats (Wins, Saves, RBI) to make their cases, and generally speaking do their best to save a buck. I read an example of a catcher who was in the top 10 in the league in batting and mentioned that as a stat in his favor, only to watch the team pull out a COMPLETE list of catchers (including guys who had like 10 at-bats) and show that the player wasn’t even in the top HALF of hitting for catchers. And the team representative stated it with a straight face. Meanwhile, these same teams generally have no issues signing veteran guys to multi-million dollar salaries to serve as middle relievers, backup outfields or 5th starters. It seems like a completely demoralizing process and I’m surprised teams even come close to arguing with their players any longer.

However, as it stands now there’s a whole slew of potential cases out there where players and clubs couldn’t come to an agreement ahead of the Jan 17th 2014 deadline. None more important than the Nats two open cases with Tyler Clippard and newly acquired Doug Fister.

Thanks to Maury Brown of the bizofbaseball.com blog, who keeps fantastic notes on Arbitration case results over the years for the core of the data that I used to make this post. This link shows all the argued cases from 2005 to 2012 and this link shows the settled cases to 2011 (needs updating; mlbtraderumors also keeps similar information that is up-to-date for 2012, 2013 and 2014).

Commenter Luke S. asked whether there was a relationship between teams who took their players to arguments and eventual retention. I thought that was a fascinating question, so I did some digging. Borrowing from Brown’s aforementioned links and then adding in some “player disposition” information, I’ve created an XLS (uploaded to Google Docs here and added to the NAR creation links to the right) that tracks all arbitration cases going back to 2005 with the disposition results. I’ve cut and pasted the core of the data here (leaving out the salaries and the description of what happened to the player).

Year	Team	Player	Delta	Winner	Still with club?	Depart club THAT year?
2012	Miami	Anibal Sanchez	$1,100,000	Player	No	Yes
2012	Washington	John Lannan	$700,000	Club	No	Yes
2012	Milwaukee	Jose Veras	$375,000	Club	No	Yes
2012	Miami	Emilio Bonifacio	$250,000	Player	No	Yes
2012	Baltimore	Brad Bergesen	$400,000	Club	No	Yes
2012	Tampa Bay	Jeff Niemann	$450,000	Club	No	No
2012	Pittsburgh	Garrett Jones	$250,000	Club	No	No
2011	Houston	Hunter Pence	$1,750,000	Player	No	Yes
2011	Pittsburgh	Ross Ohlendorf	$625,000	Player	No	Yes
2011	Los Angeles Angels	Jered Weaver	$1,435,000	Club	Yes	No
2010	Miami	Cody Ross	$250,000	Player	No	Yes
2010	Chicago Cubs	Ryan Theriot	$800,000	Club	No	Yes
2010	Washington	Brian Bruney	$350,000	Club	No	Yes
2010	Houston	Wandy Rodriguez	$2,000,000	Club	No	No
2010	Milwaukee	Corey Hart	$650,000	Player	No	No
2010	Tampa Bay	BJ Upton	$300,000	Club	No	No
2010	Los Angeles Angels	Jeff Mathis	$600,000	Player	No	No
2010	Washington	Sean Burnett	$150,000	Club	No	No
2009	Washington	Shawn Hill	$275,000	Player	No	Yes
2009	Miami	Dan Uggla	$950,000	Player	No	No
2009	Tampa Bay	Dioner Navarro	$400,000	Club	No	No
2008	Los Angeles Angels	Francisco Rodriguez	$2,500,000	Club	No	Yes
2008	Colorado	Brian Fuentes	$1,450,000	Club	No	Yes
2008	Washington	Felipe Lopez	$300,000	Club	No	Yes
2008	Houston	Mark Lorretta	$2,150,000	Club	No	Yes
2008	Philadelphia	Ryan Howard	$3,000,000	Player	Yes	No
2008	New York Mets	Oliver Perez	$1,775,000	Player	No	No
2008	Houston	Jose Valverde	$1,500,000	Club	No	No
2008	New York Yankees	Chien-Ming Wang	$600,000	Club	No	No
2007	Miami	Miguel Cabrera	$700,000	Player	No	Yes
2007	San Diego	Todd Walker	$1,200,000	Player	No	Yes
2007	Washington	John Patterson	$1,000,000	Club	No	Yes
2007	Washington	Chad Cordero	$500,000	Player	No	No
2007	Los Angeles Dodgers	Joe Beimel	$337,500	Club	No	No
2007	Tampa Bay	Josh Paul	$315,000	Club	No	No
2007	Miami	Kevin Gregg	$125,000	Club	No	No
2006	Washington	Alfonso Soriano	$2,000,000	Club	No	Yes
2006	Baltimore	Rodrigo Lopez	$750,000	Club	No	Yes
2006	Minnesota	Kyle Lohse	$550,000	Player	No	Yes
2006	Colorado	Sun-Woo “Sunny” Kim	$200,000	Club	No	Yes
2006	Kansas City	Emil Brown	$375,000	Player	No	No
2006	Tampa Bay	Josh Paul	$275,000	Club	No	No
2005	Oakland	Juan Cruz	$260,000	Club	No	Yes
2005	Minnesota	Kyle Lohse	$250,000	Player	No	No
2005	Kansas City	Jeremy Affeldt	$250,000	Club	No	No

Now, thanks to some pivot table work in XLS and some other interesting analysis, here’s what we can glean from the 45 cases that have been argued going back to 2005:

Clubs are 28/45 (62%), players are 17/45 (38%) in the last nine years of cases. Per Brown’s overall stats, Clubs hold a 291-214 lead in these cases historically, a 57% success rate, meaning the clubs are getting better at these hearings over the past decade or so.
Washington is the leading “arguing” club with 8 of 45 cases since 2005. This is not a category with which we want to be a leader. I attribute a lot of these cases to an antagonistic former GM (Jim Bowden) who had no issues going to war over relatively small amounts, coupled with a new owner who had a very bad reputation for penny pinching in the early years of his tenure. That doesn’t absolve Mike Rizzo though; he’s already had 3 cases argued in his four seasons of management.
42% of all cases since 2005 by just 3 clubs (Washington, Miami and Tampa). The two Florida clubs are both notorious for squeezing money, albeit for different alleged reasons. Miami because their owner is well established as being in the game for the money, and Tampa because they’ve long since established the revenue issues their stadium situation places on the franchise.
12 of 30 clubs in the game have not had an arb argument/case dating to 2005. To me, this means 12 of the 30 clubs have figured out that $200,000 isn’t worth destroying a player’s ego.
Smallest amount argued over: $125k by Miami in 2007 and $150K by Wash in 2010 w/ Sean Burnett. Again, no real surprise here that Miami went to arguments over $125k.
Largest amount argued over: $3M by Philadelphia w/ Ryan Howard (player won)
Biggest player demand: Francisco Rodriguez $12,500,000 (player lost).
Biggest club offer ($10M twice; both club wins). One of these was Washington’s Alfonso Soriano case in 2006.

So, based on these numbers, lets think about the two cases Washington may have pending. The amount delta with Washington’s two 2014 cases is $3M with Fister and $1.9M with Clippard. So for comparison purposes, the $3M delta with Fister would tie the largest ever delta argued before the court. The $1.9M delta with Clippard is large as well, in the top 5 deltas ever taken to arbitration. Clearly, the team and these players have some serious work to do. Clippard is seemingly in more jeopardy of losing an arbitration case, thanks to his “demotion” and sudden lack of save opportunities. The fact that he is easily argued as our best reliever and has some of the best BAA/BABIP stats in the league is meaningless; no saves means less money in front of the panel. And what a welcome to the organization it would be for Fister to arrive and before throwing a pitch in anger having to hear how crummy a pitcher he is. I feel its vital to clear these cases up, extend the guys, do whatever you have to do in order to avoid the arbitration hearing.

Lastly, here’s a couple of interesting player retention stats related to those who go to arbitration:

Just 2 of 45 players who have argued arb cases remain with their teams to this day; Jered Weaver and Ryan Howard. That seems like an awfully small number until you consider the nature of player movement in the game. The fact of the matter is this; players are constantly on the move in baseball, especially once they hit arbitration age where their salaries quickly overshadow their value. Teams have no issues employing pre-arb guys who are replacement level players. But once their salaries start jumping up and you have ready made replacements in AAA who cost 1/3rd or 1/4th as much as a 2nd or 3rd year arbitration player, it becomes pretty easy to trade, non-tender or DFA the near replacement level guy. So while it seems natural to think that players who argue with their teams are more apt to leave … I think perhaps its more common for guys to just end up leaving thanks to the huge churn and burn that exists at the back end of rosters.That being said, I’m sure something could be gleaned by doing this same “disposition analysis” for the 100s of players who settled their arbitration cases without hearings … but that’s just far too large a project for today’s little blog entry.

Here is something rather interesting though: 23 of 45 players who argued w/ their clubs were traded or released THAT same season. Including a number of the Nationals argued cases. John Lannan lost his arb case in 2012, was relegated to AAA and was non-tendered. Bruney was released just two months into the 2010 season. Both Shawn Hill and John Patterson were cut in spring training before their salaries could even kick in. Felipe Lopez moped his way into a July release the summer after his hearing. And generally speaking about half of all players who had arguments ended up in new organizations either during or just after the season in which they argued with their teams. Is this a statement about player-club relations?

Anyway; just some interesting Arbitration Case stuff for you this cold January friday day. Extend Fister! Sign Clippard! Don’t go to hearings!

Written by Todd Boss

January 24th, 2014 at 12:29 pm

Posted in Nats in General

Tagged with alfonso soriano, doug fister, felipe lopez, francisco rodriguez, jered weaver, jim bowden, john lannan, john patterson, maury brown, mike rizzo, ryan howard, sean burnett, shawn hill, tyler clippard

2014 Projected Pitching Staffs and Rotations; entire Nats system

22 comments

Mr. Detwiler's 2014 assignment will have cascading effects for MLB and AAA. Photo Haraz Ghanbari/AP via federalbaseball.com

Mr. Detwiler’s 2014 role will have serious cascading effects for MLB and AAA. Photo Haraz Ghanbari/AP via federalbaseball.com

OK here we are. We did seven comprehensive pitching staff reviews (the GCL review is here, which has links to the other 6 reviews) in order to arrive at this post.

So, without further ado, here’s what I’m predicting for all seven systems right now, absent any more deals (like say for a MLB lefty or another starter or trading a closer to Chicago):

MLB Level

MLB Rotation: Strasburg, Gonzalez (L), Zimmermann, Fister, Detwiler (L)
MLB Bullpen: Soriano, Storen, Clippard, Stammen, Blevens (L), Ohlendorf, Roark
MLB out of Org: Haren, Duke (L), Abad (L), Krol (L), HRodriguez

Discussion: the 5th starter competition could shake out so many different ways, that it almost is not worth predicting. I can see any of the following scenarios playing out:

Detwiler gets one last shot at the 5th starter as the incumbent, pushing Jordan to AAA and Ohlendorf/Roark to the bullpen (my current prediction).
Jordan wins the 5th starter, pushing Detwiler to the bullpen as a power lefty by virtue of his lack of options. This would push (likely) Roark to AAA.
Roark wins the 5th starter, continuing his blistering sub 2.00 ERA pace from September, pushing Detwiler to the bullpen and Jordan to AAA.
Less likely, Karns wins the 5th spot, which pushes Detwiler to the bullpen and Roark & Jordan to AAA.
Even more less likely, Ohlendorf wins the spot, which pushes Detwiler to the bullpen but lets Roark stay as the long man/spot-starter.
Mike Rizzo shocks us again with another starter acquisition; Detwiler goes to the bullpen, Ohlendorf stays as long man, and Roark & Jordan are in AAA.

Why am I predicting Detwiler will win the rotation spot? Partly because of options, but partly because I’ve sort of come back around on him after looking more closely at his 2013 season. He had a decent to good 2012; he posted a 118 ERA+ and even if his advanced FIP/SIERA didn’t indicate he was quite that good, he was still more than a servicable 5th starter. Then in his first seven 2013 starts he was also very good (he had a 2.53 ERA in his first 7 starts and 42 2/3 innings … he got hurt in his 8th start). The rest of his season was a mess, with him fighting injury and ballooning his seasonal ERA from 2.53 to more than 4.00 in five more starts. If he comes back healthy to start 2014, why wouldn’t we expect more of the same performance that he had at the start of 2013? For these two reasons, I think Detwiler breaks camp as the 5th starter. Now …. I have zero confidence that he’ll remain healthy enough to keep his spot in the rotation, but that’s a problem for another day. And a problem for which this team has plenty of coverage.

Another scenario that could affect this predition: Rizzo acquires yet another lefty reliever (latest rumors were about Scott Downs before he signed elsewhere, but I’m sure a trade could be arranged), which complicates any of these predictions because it means one less spot for either Ohlendorf or Roark. For a team that seems so obsessed with left-handed relievers, we sure have let a bunch of them go in recent years (Duke, Abad, Krol this year, Gorzelanny, Lannan, Burnett and Gonzalez last year). Maybe we should just hang on to one or two of these guys? I will say this: I do NOT believe that the Nats will choose Xavier Cedeno and his 6 2013 MLB innings for the Nats over Roark just because he’s left handed at this point.

Personally, I think Roark and Ohlendorf pitched like big leagers last year and deserve to stay in the majors until they prove otherwise. Ohlendorf’s recent $1.25M deal seems to indicate he’s more likely to stick than Roark, but perhaps the long-man/spot starter competition is open as well. This pushes previous stalwards in the bullpen (specifically Ryan Mattheus ) to AAA. I will say this though: if you expect to win, you have to go north with your 25 best guys no matter how much they make or their option status. And at the end of last year, that undoubtedly included Tanner Roark. So thats why I’m going with Roark in the pen to start the season.

One other wrinkle; does Rizzo trade one of Storen or Clippard to Chicago, who desperately needs a closer? This seems less likely, especially for a team that has World Series aspirations, but the truth is this team is paying a LOT of money into its bullpen ($25M and counting), has three closer-quality guys, and potentially a log jam of righties (see the AAA bullpen prediction for more). I see this as less likely unless Chicago sends back pieces that we really need, but rumors get started because GMs are talking, so maybe this still happens. But if a guy like that is traded, then that re-opens a slot for the deposed Mattheus or possibly the newly healthy an electric Garcia. I think these are lesser possibilities and both those guys are pushed to AAA to begin the season.

I’m sure this section garners plenty of discussion; have at it in the comments 🙂

AAA Level

AAA Rotation: Jordan, Karns, Rosenbaum (L), Young, MLFA or two?
AAA Bullpen: Barrett, Mattheus, Garcia, Davis, Cedeno (L), Robertson (L), Herron (AA?), Alfaro, Stange, Delcarmen
AAA Release candidates: Meyers, Lehman
AAA out of Org: Maya, Tatusko, Clay, Mandel, Torra, Broadway, Crotta, Lowe, Kimball, Accardo, Bramhall, Romero (L)

Discussion

So, the projected AAA rotation has one hold over in Rosenbaum, two “promotions” in Jordan and Karns, and then a whole bunch of question marks. Is Chris Young healthy enough to pitch this year? Is Brad Meyers? Right now i’ve got Meyers as a release candidate, figuring that he hasn’t been healthy in two years and may be finished. I have to think that the team will give a couple of lower-level free agents minor league contracts to try to pitch their way back into the league, much as they have done with the likes of Zach Duke, Ross Ohlendorf and Young in the last couple of off-seasons. There’s plenty of guys out there who may make sense; a quick glance at the current list of free agents offers intriguing names (think of someone like a Joe Saunders or a Barry Zito or an Aaron Harang; do you think these guys are getting guaranteed contracts for 2014?). I’m predicting that at least one or two of these types of guys get MLFA deals and end up in the AAA rotation, though I suppose at least one guy i’m projecting from the AA rotation could start in AAA.

The AAA bullpen has a couple of MLB-quality arms in Ryan Mattheus and Christian Garcia who we know can contribute at the MLB level but who end up here because of a numbers game at the big club. The AAA closer likely is Aaron Barrett, newly added to the 40-man and looking to make his mark. Erik Davis is here, who I kind of soured on last season but his numbers in small MLB samples were good and I think he can contribute in a Craig Stammen sort of way going forward. We have a couple of hold-over loogies in Xavier Cedeno and Tyler Robertson, the latter of which successfully passed through waivers and was outrighted to Syracuse last month. We already have three off-season MLFA signings (Gabriel Alfaro, Daniel Stange, Manny Delcarmen) who all project as righty middle relievers, making it seemingly less likely that the team will retain some of its own MLFAs (the likes of Ryan Tatusko and Jeff Mandel being longer serving Nats minor leaguers who pitched decently in 2013).

But as you can see there’s more candidates here than there is room on the Syracuse roster (10 for 7 spots, and that’s assuming that Pat Lehman doesn’t make the cut either). There will be injuries and D/L stints among these guys, but there may also be some releases next March.

Still, a AAA rotation led by Jordan and Karns (and possibly Ohlendorf and/or Roark if another move is made at the MLB level) leaves Syracuse with a pretty good staff to start the season. And I like the fact that we have one reasonably accomplished MLB starter (Jordan) waiting in the wings to go along with a guy who might get there soon (Karns), to go with potentially a couple other former major league guys who are working their way back.

AA Level

AA Rotation: Cole, Hill, Solis (L), Schwartz, Treinen (AAA?)
AA Bullpen: Benincasa, Mirowski, Holland, Swynenberg, Grace (L), Bates, KPerez, Gilliam (swingman), Spann (L)
AA release candidates: Perry, Selik, Demny, RMartin
AA out of Org: Broderick, Ray, McCoy, Frias, Holder, Bray

Discussion

We’ll see this trend again and again; despite the fact that the likes of A.J. Cole and Taylor Hill reached AA last year, the organization seems to like seeing these guys “beat the level” a second season in a row before moving guys up. And so I see these guys in AA again. Sammy Solis here is no surprise; he’s nearly 26 and has been mentioned as a MLB bullpen candidate already. Meanwhile for the time being i’ve got Blake Treinen here, repeating the level, but can also see him moving up to AAA. His numbers were good but not *that* good last year, and I left him in AA assuming that the team will try out some re-treads in the AAA rotation. Lastly Blake Schwartz gets a deserved promotion after leading Potomac in IP, wins and starts last year.

In the bullpen I think Robert Benincasa is your closer to start, with Richie Mirowski and Neil Holland continuing to put up dominating late-innings relief. All three guys should be pushing for promotions to AAA. We’re a little light on lefties here admittedly. A couple of injury-prone guys in Ryan Perry and Cameron Selik are listed as release candidates in the face of a number of guys meriting placement here. Paul Demny and Rafael Martin have been around forever and may also be release candidates at this point, but they also could (at least in Demny’s case) convert to relief and try to rekindle their careers. Lastly, there’s newly acquired Matthew Spann, the bounty for the Nats gambit on David Dejesus near the end of last season. He’s a lefty who looks like he could start but i’ve got him in the bullpen for now.

High-A Level

High-A rotation: Purke (L), Anderson, Mooneyham (L), Encarnacion, Bacus, Turnbull (bullpen?) (L)
High-A bullpen: Wort (AA?), Holt (AA?), Fischer, Henke, Mendez, Harper (L), Davis, Thomas (L), RPena (swingman), Dickson (swingman)
High-A release candidates: Dupra, Rauh (starter?), Meza (L)
High-A out of org: Pineyro, Hawkins

Discussion

I don’t think there’s too many surprises in this rotation: Matthew Purke leads the line and should push for a promotion mid-season. If he doesn’t dominate High-A at this point it may be time to think about moving him to the pen. The same can be said about Brett Mooneyham and especially Kylin Turnbull, two guys who (by now) should have accomplished this level. Otherwise the rest of this projected rotation are three guys who succeeded in Low-A in 2013: Dixon Anderson, Pedro Encarnacion and Dakoda Bacus.

In the bullpen, at this point i’m not sure who the closer candidates are to start the season. Perhaps Greg Holt starts in the role. Perhaps low-A phenom Gilberto Mendez gets a shot at closing. Both Holt and Rob Wort may belong in AA at this point; Wort began 2013 there but there’s a lot of relievers in that AA section who would have to get hurt/be released to make room for these two guys right now. There’s a couple of decent swingmen candidates here in Ronald Pena and Ian Dickson both started for long stretches in Hagerstown and could be useful guys in Potomac. There’s a lot of names in the mix here for this bullpen; from here on down there could be plenty of releases come the end of spring.

Low-A Level

Low-A rotation: Giolito, Johansen, Voth, Lee (high-A?) (L), Orlan (L)
Low-A bullpen: Self (high-A?), Selsor (swingman), Ullmann, Pivetta, Simms, Hollins, Napoli (L), Bafidis (L), Suero (swingman), Valdez, Walsh (L), Aries
Low-A release candidates: Joyce, Waterman, Boyden
Low-A out of org: McKenzie, Smith

Discussion

I like this rotation, a lot. Two of our best prospects, a third guy in Austin Voth who impressed last year, a guy in Nick Lee who probably deserves a high-A rotation spot and then Auburn’s staff leader in Robert Orlan. Jake Johansen may find himself needing a promotion quickly, if he’s all that he’s cracked up to be.

The bullpen is going to be tough; basically every college aged short-season guy who pitched well in 2013 is named in this bullpen competition. There’s a couple of interesting DSL graduates in Wander Suero and Phillips Valdez, some big arms in Ryan Ullmann and Nick Pivetta, and some polished college-aged lefties in David Napoli, Cory Bafidis and Jake Walsh. I have 15 names here for 7-8 spots; Viera’s extended spring training could be busy this year.

Short-A Level

Short-A rotation: Barrientos, JRodriguez, Silvestre (high-A?) (L), and then 2013 draftees and/or drop-downs from Low-A
Short-A bullpen: DWilliams, Cooper, KRodriguez, Derosier, Webb (L), Spezial (L), 2013 draftees and drop-downs from Low-A
Short-A release candidates: Sylvestri, Grisz
Short-A out of org: Hudgins, Simko, Dicharry

GCL Level

Rookie Rotation: Ott (L), 2013 draftees and DSL graduates
Rookie bullpen: RLopez, 2013 draftees and DSL graduates
Rookie release candidates: DRamos, MRodriguez

Discussion

Its frankly impossible to predict the short-season squads, since (especially Auburn) they exist to park newly signed draftees. However, I do see a ton of guys who competed and succeeded in the GCL this year who won’t necessarily make the Hagerstown squad, and I see them forming a good chunk of the Auburn squad. The rest of the Auburn squad will be populated with upper-end 2014 draftees and losers from the Hagerstown pitching staff competition. More of the same with the 2014 GCL squad, which was heavily tilted with DSL graduates this year. The Nats tend to focus on college arms and thus only small college guys are generally put in the GCL in their draft year.

Written by Todd Boss

December 23rd, 2013 at 7:41 am

Posted in Majors Pitching,Minor League Pitching

Tagged with aaron barrett, aaron harang, aj cole, austin voth, barry zito, blake schwartz, blake treinen, brad meyers, brett mooneyham, cameron selik, chris young, christian garcia, cory bafidis, craig stammen, dakoda bacus, dan haren, daniel stange, danny rosenbaum, david dejesus, david napoli, dixon anderson, doug fister, drew storen, erik davis, fernando abad, gabriel alfaro, gilberto mendez, gio gonzalez, greg holt, hector silvestre, henry rodriguez, ian dickson, ian krol, jake johansen, jake walsh, jeff mandel, jefry rodriguez, jeremy blevens, joe saunders, joel barrientos, john lannan, jordan zimmermann, kylin turnbull, lucas giolito, manny delcarmen, mathew spann, matthew purke, mike gonzalez, nathan karns, neil holland, nick lee, nick pivetta, pat lehman, paul demny, pedro encarnacion, phillips valdez, rafael martin, rafael soriano, richie mirowski, rob wort, robert benincasa, robert orlan, ronald pena, ross detwiler, ross ohlendorf, ryan mattheus, ryan perry, ryan tatusko, ryan ullmann, sammy solis, scott downs, sean burnett, stephen strasburg, tanner roark, taylor hill, taylor jordan, tom gorzelanny, travis ott, tyler clippard, tyler herron, tyler robertson, wander suero, xavier cedeno, zach duke

Two months in; Stuck in Neutral

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So my dad calls me the other day and immediately exclaims, “What’s wrong with this team?!?”

Today, the season is 57 games old. Two months old. Almost exactly 1/3 old. And the Nationals, the supposed power houses, next-coming-of the 1927 Yankees, the possible 110 win Nationals, are a .500 team. Actually, a game under .500 with the weekend series loss to Atlanta.

We’ve talked about the Nats early schedule (as has Tom Boswell recently), chock full of 2012 playoff contenders. But 2013 is a new season and in reality the Nats as of two months in have played the 14th ranked schedule of 30 teams (3 days ago it was 19th ranked … so these rankings move fast). We’ve talked about the injuries, the offense in general, defense, the bench, Drew Storen, Danny Espinosa, and Dan Haren all as contributing factors. A couple of prominent national baseball writers pipped in on 5/31/13 on this topic: Jay Jaffe on si.com and then Rob Neyer on BaseballNation.com, offering some suggestions, possible trades (Ian Kinsler?) and possible call-ups (the obvious Anthony Rendon).

But here’s my scary thought, as proposed to my dad. What if .500 is exactly what this team is?

The 2011 Nationals finished .500. The 2012 Nationals surprised us all and won 98 games. Now the team is back to its 2011 levels. Is it possible that this was always a .500 team for whom everything went perfectly right in 2012? All the stars were in alignment in 2012 in terms of hitting, bench play and coming out parties for guys like Ian Desmond and Bryce Harper and Gio Gonzalez. Now in 2013 are we just seeing all these guys revert to their normal production levels?

Were we just spoiled by the amazing bench production we got last year? Here’s a quick table (stats as of 5/31/13):

player	2012 OPS+	2013 OPS+	Career OPS+
Bernadina	113	34	85
Moore	125	27	90
Lombardozzi	83	55	74
Tracy	112	19	97

In other words, all four primary bench guys outperformed their career OPS+ values (mostly by a 25-30% factor) in 2012, and now all four guys are hitting so far below replacement level as to be drastically hurting the club.

I think the answer to the above questions goes along the following, topic by topic:

No, this is better than a .500 team. The 2013 team is absolutely better than the 2011 team that rallied in September to finish 80-81. The rotation now is leaps and bounds better than the 2011 rotation. The offense (on potential anyway) is better.
This team is by-and-large the exact same team as the 2012 98 win team. You can quibble about the loss of Michael Morse‘s charisma and power versus the fire-starting abilities of Denard Span at the top of the order, but then you also have to acknowledge the runs-saved so far this season by having an additional plus-plus defender in the outfield. Haren versus Edwin Jackson? At least a wash. Bullpen additions and subtractions? Perhaps replacing Burnett, Gorzelanny and Gonzalez with just Zach Duke and Rafael Soriano has weakened the bullpen. Perhaps not, considering Soriano’s pedigree as a closer and its cascading effect on the rest of the bullpen.
The bench over produced in 2012 and is underproducing thus far in 2013, per career averages. A bit of expected regression to the mean should indicate rising bench offensive production from here on out. It almost has to; there’s just no way that these four guys are going to hit THIS badly the rest of the season.

But, the early season damage as been done. At this point, just for the team to match its 2012 win total they’d have to finish the season 70-35. That’s a .667 winning percentage. That’s a 110-win pace for a season. The NL Central right now has three teams with better records than either Atlanta or Washington, the two pre-season NL favorites, meaning there may not even be a NL Wild-Card to fall back on. This team needs to focus on winning the division or there may not be an October.

This sounds like something Yogi Berra would say, but here goes: you have to score to win. For me, if they start scoring runs and out-hitting teams, the issues we have with defense, the bullpen and injured starters will become secondary concerns. As we speak, these Nationals are hitting .229 AS A TEAM. That’s unbelievable. Almost amazingly bad. They’re 28th in batting average. They’re dead last in team OBP (on a pace for a modern seasonal low OBP in fact), 27th in team slugging, 29th in wOBA and 28th in wRC+.

They need Werth back in the middle of the order. They need a healthy Harper, who hasn’t been the same since the LA wall crash but really hasn’t been the same since hitting the wall in Atlanta in late April (from a tweet by Mark Zuckerman: Bryce Harper’s stats before April 29 collision in ATL: .356/.437/.744. His stats since: .183/.315/.350). They’re finally getting LaRoche back on track, and Zimmerman is hitting well. They need to stop giving at bats to Espinosa, and they need Ramos back to help spell Suzuki (he’s catching nearly every game and his offense has bottomed out in the last month).

I’m going under the assumption, by the way, that Strasburg misses at most one start and that Detwiler returns straight away. I don’t think Nathan Karns is ready for the big time and the team needs to find another spot starter in the short term (Stammen?).

June is here; a weak schedule and an opportunity to get some wins. If we’re still .500 on July 1st, then we’ll probably have run out of excuses and decided that we are who we are.

Written by Todd Boss

June 3rd, 2013 at 8:00 am

Nats Major & Minor League Pitching Staffs vs Predictions

Ladson’s inbox 1/7/13 Edition

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Readers ask creative questions for keeping Morse around. It won't matter. Photo Cheryl Nichols/Nats News Network

Slow week for baseball news; I’m sure that will end tomorrow when the Hall of Fame class (or lack there of) is announced. Meanwhile MLB.com’s Nats beat reporter Bill Ladson published a mailbag on 1/7/13. Here’s how I would have answered his questions.

Update: after I wrote this, LaRoche signed. So much for a slow news week for our Nats. Some of the below may now be slightly dated analysis.

As always, I write the response here before reading his, and edit questions for clarity/conciseness.

Q: If Anthony Rendon stays healthy, could you see Ryan Zimmerman moving to first base and Rendon playing third base?

A: Yes, absolutely. I’m now firmly on the following succession plan: Rendon hits his way to the majors, proves he can play excellent 3B defense, and we move Zimmerman and his nearing-Chuck Knoblock/Steve Sax issues with his throwing arm to first base. Zimmerman would save the wear and tear on his body by not having to field bunts and dive for as many grounders, and would not have to make any more casual throws across the diamond (he’s proven that under duress or when hurried that he is very accurate, a clear indication that when he doesn’t think about the throw, he makes it). And we install Rendon at third where by all accounts he’s just as good a defender as Zimmerman is.

However. There’s a few things that need to happen for this plan to work. Rendon (as the question mentions) needs to stay healthy. He needs to prove he can hit MLB pitching. And the Nats need to NOT lock up first base for the next three seasons with Adam LaRoche, else the position is blocked, Zimmerman stays at 3B for the duration of LaRoche’s deal and Rendon will have to push someone else off their position (Espinosa at 2b is the likely target … but Espinosa is nearly a 4 win player despite his strikeouts. They don’t grow 4 win players on trees). So Rendon may be stuck until another solution presents itself, perhaps by way of injury.

Update: with LaRoche’s signing, we now know that Zimmerman isn’t moving to 1B for at least two years, so now Rendon’s path is more complicated.

Ladson kind of hedges and says “well, lets just see what happens.”

Q: Why the talk of trading Michael Morse when trading Jayson Werth would be far better for the team? Besides all the money it would free up, Morse is three years younger, hits far better, especially with men on base, and has more power.

A: Because who in their right mind would take Jayson Werth with the massively backloaded contract he’s currently on while he’s in his decline years in his mid 30s and has shown himself suddenly to be injury prone?? That sentence is exactly the reason that the Werth contract was and is criticized as being one of the “worst in the game.” Because its unmoveable. He’s going to be paid $21.57 million dollars in the year 2017 when he’s 38. If Werth was still producing at his last Philadelphia year level (he posted a 4.3 bWAR in 2010, which using a rough FA estimate of $5M/war would mean he was “valued” at exactly $21.5M), there wouldn’t be as much complaining. But in the first two years of the contract, he hasn’t produced anywhere near that WAR value (bWARs of 1.0 and 0.6 in the first two years of the contract). Yes he was hurt in 2012, but its not like he’s giving back the money for the 81 games he didn’t play.

This is such an ignorant question, you wonder why Ladson took it.

All that being said, yes I understand why the Nats made the Werth deal. I think it was done fully well knowing what an albatross it was to be. It was done to acquire the competitive nature of Werth and to send a message to the league that the Nationals were a new regime post Jim Bowden.

Ladson talks about Werth’s “non number” contributions to the team, saying he’s more valuable than numbers suggest. I think that’s a really myopic viewpoint of Werth’s contract, his production and the point of the question.

Q: Any worries about losing three left-handers out of the bullpen? That was a big strength last year. What are the options?

A: Was our three lefties really that big of a strenth last year? Other readers here have pointed out Michael Gonzalez‘s complete inability to deal with right-handers (they hit him for a .297/.378/.484 slash line in 2012), meaning that the team really could only trust Gonzalez for solely lefty-lefty matchups. Tom Gorzelanny was the 7th guy out of the pen, the long-man/mop-up guy whose large majority of IP were defined as “low leverage,” implying that despite his excellent ERA in 2012 his production can be replaced relatively easily. Sean Burnett was inarguably great … but also was commanding 3 year guaranteed contracts in a baseball management era where we now know that relievers should be treated as fungible assets and never guaranteed major money to. So allowing him to leave was the right decision to make.

Gorzelanny has been replaced by Zach Duke, who (as I’ll begrudingly admit that “peric the troll” was right about, stemming from a conversation here last September) seems to be a better option and who seems to have been given all of Gorzelanny’s appearances last September (Gorzelanny didn’t appear in a game for nearly two weeks in the middle September).

However, I will admit that I am slightly worried about the fact that we seem set to replace the value of both Gonzalez and Burnett at this point with Bill Bray, who may or may not even make the team. I really thought we’d win the J.P. Howell FA sweepstakes. Now at this point, I’m guessing perhaps the team just trusts the matchups and remembers that Tyler Clippard is lights out against lefties despite being a RHP (lefties hit him for a .170/.260/.259 slash line in 2012, a year when Clippard was significantly worse than in 2011). Maybe the team finds a MLFA or a career reclamation project out there (much as they did with Gonzalez and Duke last year). Or (most likely) maybe the team demands a lefty bullpen arm in trade for the eventual Michael Morse transaction once LaRoche signs on for 2013 and beyond). We’ll see; lots of hot-stove league left.

Ladson thinks there’s more acquisitions coming.

Q: Morse was drafted as a shortstop, so is there a way the Nationals could convert Michael into a second baseman?

A: If Morse’s mobility is that poor in LF, he’d be considered a statute at 2nd. There’s just no way he could possibly move there at this point. Besides, Espinosa is considered a very good defender and the Nats regime values plus defense. He may have been a shortstop once, but that was long ago. Ladson says its never going to happen.

Q: What are the chances the Nats try to make a trade for Giancarlo Stanton? Then they can put Werth or Bryce Harper at first base.

A: Hah. Well, I’m sure the Nats (and most every other team in the league) would kill to have Stanton. But Stanton is probably the most valuable resource in the game; a pre-arbitration premiere slugger. The only thing more valuable probably is a pre-arbitration Ace starter (think Tim Lincecum before he hit arbitration). Stanton is under team control for four more years and isn’t even arbitration eligible yet. On the open market he’s worth $25M/year; he’s set to earn somewhere in the mid $500,000 in 2013. It would have to take something well north of the prospect haul that Tampa Bay got in the James Shields trade, and that trade netted Tampa Wil Myers, basically the best propsect in the game.

The Nats (and most teams in the game) simply do not have enough prospect depth to pry Stanton away. And, the Marlins would have to be crazy to trade him intra-division. Just isn’t happening. I think the penny pinching Marlins keep him for another year and trade him before he hits arbitration, making him someone elses’s escalating salary issue. Ladson says that the team wouldn’t trade for Stanton because their outfield is set for the next two seasons. Really!? You wouldn’t trade away Span or Werth, even if you paid their entire ride, to acquire someone with the talent of Stanton?

Q: What are the Nats’ plans with Jhonatan Solano going forward?

A: Catcher depth. Despite his .300+ BA in his short MLB stint, I don’t think he’s anything more than a 4-A player. We keep him on the 40-man until his options expire and then DFA him, all the while he serves as a 3rd catcher in case Ramos/Suzuki gets hurt. Ladson points out that Suzuki is a FA after 2013, so perhaps Solano becomes the #2 in 2014 and beyond. However, Suzuki has a club option for 2014 that could move this schedule out a year.

Written by Todd Boss

January 8th, 2013 at 1:52 pm

Ask Boswell 12/31/12 Edition

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Where did all our 2012 lefties go? Photo Nationals stock.

Even in the basking glow of the Redskin’s first NFC East title since 1999, there were still a few Nationals questions thrown into Tom Boswell‘s 12/31/12 Chat at washingtonpost.com. Here’s a mini chat-response edition.

As always, I edit questions for clarity and answer here as I read down the chat before reading Boswell’s response.

Q: I can’t understand why the Nats have allowed all three of their lefty relievers to depart without serious efforts to re-sign them.

A: I think you have to look at all three guys individually. Tom Gorzelanny was replaced by Zack Duke, who likely was cheaper than the 2yr/$5.7M contract Gorzelanny got from Milwaukee (we have no terms of the Duke deal available, but I’m guessing its around a 1yr $1.5M deal). I just get the impression the team liked Duke better than Gorzelanny by the end of the 2012 season. This, ironically, was also the position that “peric the troll” argued for at the end of last season, to give credit where credit is due. Sean Burnett got 2yrs/$8M with a vesting option at $4.5M if he appears in 110 games over the next two seasons (a relatively easy option to attain considering he has averaged more than 70 games a year each of the last four seasons). And the Nats likely believe that a 3 year contract for a reliever is too much. Lastly, the team probably wanted Michael Gonzalez back but got out bid by Milwaukee for his 1yr/$2.2M deal. So they’re now back on the market, possibly in on J.P. Howell on a deal for less than what Gonzalez want, but also have Bill Bray in the fold on a minor league deal. I know these aren’t eye-popping numbers, but the way to build teams is to save money where you can and to stick to a methodology. Mike Rizzo‘s methodology for building bullpens seems to be to save money where you can, knowing that more bullpen arms are available in the minors. Boswell thinks the team has ably replaced at least two of these guys, but also says the team NEEDS to get Howell.

Q: If I got in a time machine and went back to December 31, 2011 and told you to bet your house that both the Redskins and the Nats would win their respective divisions, would you have believed it? Furthermore, if I traveled to December 31, 2013, what is your guess regarding what the talk would be about?

A: Just talking about the Nats; if you had told me the 2012 Nats were winning the division I would have laughed. I thought the team was improved from 81 wins, but not improved by 17 games. Mark Zuckerman had a nice WAR-analysis piece after the Gio Gonzalez trade that showed that the team could be improved by 12 wins or so, but nobody thought the team would explode for 98 wins. What’s a good prediction for 2013? Well, borrowing on Zuckerman’s WAR analysis piece, you can make a legitimate argument that the team is setup to be improved again in 2013. This is a teaser for a blog post coming this week, but the proof is out there. If you eliminate the negative WAR guys (which, for the most part we already have) and then account for improvements from guys playing full seasons … we could easily be a 100+ win team. Boswell says he wouldn’t have believed that both teams would win the divisions in 2012.

Q: Couldn’t the Nats sign LaRoche and keep Morse as their number one guy off the bench, sending Moore to AAA to play every day?

A: They could, but that would be a monumental waste of Michael Morse‘s abilities. He’ll be healthy in 2013; when he was healthy in 2011 he hit 30 homers. There’s no reason to think he won’t return to that form. So, if the team retains Adam LaRoche, the prudent option is to move Morse for some farm system depth (depth which we desperately need). Tyler Moore has nothing to prove in AAA; he NEEDS MLB at-bats. I don’t have a problem with Moore being the super-sub he was in 2012 again, but he’s another guy who might be better served being traded as well. Boswell points out Morse’s .857 OPS as a Nat and rightly points out that this is too big of a bat to sit idle.

Written by Todd Boss

January 2nd, 2013 at 9:32 am

Posted in Chat/Mailbag Responses

Tagged with adam laroche, bill bray, gio gonzalez, jp howell, mark zuckerman, michael gonzalez, michael morse, mike rizzo, sean burnett, tom boswell, tom gorzelanny, tyler moore, zach duke

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