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Free Michael Morse! Photo Jacqueline Martin/AP via federalbaseball.com

Another edition of Bill Ladson‘s Nats inbox, dated 1/14/13.

Q: Who will replace Davey Johnson once he retires after the 2013 season?

A: Who knows and who cares? Can we wait until the end of the 2013 season to see if Davey Johnson actually retires? I’m not convinced that he actually will retire if the Nats don’t win the World Series. Even if he does retire, I think its pointless to speculate who in the baseball universe the team could possibly look to as a successor. It could be a current TV pundit, a bench coach, someone elses manager, someone who just got fired, a minor league manager in our system, one of our current coaches, Mike Rizzo‘s uncle. About the only person I think it will NOT be is Jim Riggleman. Ladson says internal candidates Randy Knorr and Trent Jewett are good candidates, and throws out Joe Girardi‘s name based on his contract status coinciding with the end of next season.

Q: Is there any validity to the Nationals having interest in Javier Vazquez? If the Nats were to sign him, would they move Ross Detwiler to the bullpen so he could be their second lefty?

A: This topic as so irked me that I’m penning an entire post dedicated to it. Check back later.

Q: If Michael Morse is only making $6.7 million, why not keep him around as insurance and a right-handed bat off the bench?

A: An excellent question. Much like the team paid John Lannan to sit around in Syracuse for a year, they could do the same with Michael Morse. Except that Morse is FAR more valuable in trade than in sitting around and wondering what he’s done to earn his fate. He’s by all accounts a great clubhouse guy, but keeping him here would be detrimental to everyone involved. I think the team needs to move him for lefty bullpen help and some farm system starting pitching depth. Ladson says the team needs to do Morse a favor and trade him.

Q: Who do you see as the Opening Day closer — Tyler Clippard or Drew Storen?

A: Drew Storen. Tyler Clippard had his shot at the title and lost it down the 2012 stretch. I think the team goes back to its winning formula with Clip-Store-and Save in 2013. Ladson thinks Johnson will go with “the hot hand” and split the role. I don’t. I think he’ll go right back to what he was doing before.

Q: With Adam LaRoche now signed, what are the Nats’ long-term plans for Tyler Moore?

A: Once Morse is traded, Moore becomes the big bat off the bench and does some fill-in work at 1st base and (maybe) LF. I see his opportunities limited though unless we see some injuries. Longer term, I think he’ll have to hit his way into full time playing time; if he does perhaps he’s the first baseman of the future. I don’t see it though; I think he’s likely to find his way off the team through trade at some point. The OF is full and 1B is blocked. Ladson agrees, mentioning an interesting wrinkle; with Bo Porter now in Houston, perhaps a trade would be in order.

Q: Which Minor League player do you think will have a breakout season this year?

A: A good question. Borrowing from Luke Erickson‘s NationalsProspects watchlist for 2013 (a very handy one-page summary of all the top/interesting prospects throughout the Nats farm system), I’ll pick three names that could press for quick promotion and big impact in 2013: Rendon, Skole and Goodwin. Ok that’s a cop out. I will say this: I *hope* that Rendon breaks out and finally hits like his draft pedigree. Lets keep an eye this year on Nathan Karns and Erik Davis, two rising arms that could both feature in the bullpen in 2013. I’d like to see Robbie Ray rebound. For a deep-cut, i’m really interested to see what Kevin DiCharry does in 2013. Ladson goes with the two obvious candidates Rendon and Goodwin. I don’t think he follows the farm system that closely, so we’ll give him a pass.

Q: Is Ryan Zimmerman expected to be healthy for Spring Training?

A: I saw nothing in his surgery detail that indicated that the 2013 season was in jeopardy in any way. Ladson confirms.

Q: If Jayson Werth bats in the middle of the order, what right-handed hitter is the best choice for No. 2 after Denard Span?

A: I’d probably say Jayson Werth is still the best option at #2. The lineup that seems to make the most sense goes Span-Werth-Harper-Zimmerman-LaRoche-Desmond-Espinosa-Suzuki. That allows the team to go L-R-L-R-L-R-S-R, a perfect balance. Perhaps you switch Desmond and Werth. Ladson thinks Harper is batting second most of the time. Can’t see that; can’t see Johnson purposely going lefty with 3 of the first four guys in his rotation. That seems to scream out easy Loogy matchups every night.

Q: Will Christian Garcia do any starting for the Nats next season? I know Johnson would love to see that.

A: A man can wish; I’d love to see Christian Garcia starting and bringing his stuff for 7 innings a night. Unfortunately I don’t think he’s got the stamina in that arm (surgically repaired more than once) to start, no matter how much Johnson may want him as starter depth. I think Garcia starts the year in AAA starting but soon finds himself back in the MLB bullpen. Ladson says he’s getting stretched out and will provide cover for any injuries.

Written by Todd Boss

January 15th, 2013 at 8:45 am

Nats Franchise Draft history; biggest, best, worst Draft Picks

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Face of the Franchise Zimmerman easily represents the best player drafted in the Washington era (by WAR). Photo team official

This is the Third in a long-delayed series of “Best of” posts, breaking down the transactions of both the club’s General Managers. Previously:

1. Biggest/Best/Worst Trades in Nats History (March 2012)

2. Biggest/Best/Worst Free Agent signings in Nats History (November 2012).

Here’s Part 3: looking at the Biggest, Best and Worst Draft picks the team has made since arriving here in Washington.

Ground rules for this article:

1. Unlike the trades and free agent posts, assiging “credit” or “blame” for draft picks on the General Manager is not entirely straightforward. Baseball teams rely heavily on Scouting Directors and their staffs when it comes to the draft, especially once you get past the first few rounds. So, perhaps for the purposes of this article it is better to talk about the “Reign of Jim Bowden” and the “Reign of Mike Rizzo” instead of insinuating that every draft decision was made by the GM during these times. Much like the President of the US gets credit/blame when the US economy as a whole rises or falls (whether or not you’d like to argue that a president’s decisions can influence a multi-trillion dollar economy), so does the GM get the credit/blame for his staff’s draft picks. Most baseball pundits that I’ve read generally say that the GM/Team Ownership is always directly involved in making any 1st round and supplemental first round picks (because of the money), and will be involved if over-slot bonuses come up in later rounds, but that by the 5th round or so the entire draft is being conducted without the GM’s involvement. Which leads us to point #2…

2. Related to #1; Mike Rizzo, whom Bowden hired in July of 2006, may not have been the Scouting Director but he certainly had a say in the drafts (coming from a scouting background in Arizona). I’ll list scouting directors tenure here as well, related to #1 and #2. But, it probably isn’t going to be entirely fair to the GM to say that such-and-such a pick was “good” or “bad” if it was actually being done by his staff.

3. It is entirely “hindsight is 20/20” in nature. But, it is what it is. If you draft a 1st rounder who flames out in low-A, he’s a failure. If you draft a major leaguer in the 21st round, he’s a fantastic success. Mostly here in judging the “best draft picks” I’m looking for value in later rounds. As it turns out judging “worst” draft picks mostly will be around first round busts.

Just for review, here’s the tenure period of both GMs:

Nov 2004 – Mar 2009: Jim Bowden
Mar 2009 – present: Mike Rizzo

And here’s the tenure period of Scouting Directors during our time here in Washington:

Mid 2002 – Mar 2009: Dana Brown
Mar 2009 – Present: Kris Kline

The quintessential Nats Draft resource is the Draft Tracker Spreadsheet, initially created by NatsFarm.com’s Brian Oliver and now maintained by “SpringfieldFan. ” It has all our draft picks, where they came from and signing bonuses. A file I’ve kept recently (The Draft Prospects Worksheet) is a file I started to create when the Nats started getting some upper-end draft picks as a way to track who we may take. Lastly, you can query the entire amateur draft results per team at baseball-reference.com (the link will go to the 2009 draft by way of example).

Jim Bowden Tenure: Nov 2004 – Mar 2009

Bowden’s Biggest Draft Picks (in terms of dollars committed).

2005 1st rnd: Ryan Zimmerman, $2.975M
2007 1st rnd: Ross Detwiler, $2.1M
2007 6th rnd: Jack McGeary: $1.8M
2006 1st rnd: Chris Marrero: $1.6M
2006 1st rnd: Colten Willems: $1.4M

Bowden’s Best Draft Picks

2005 11th rnd: John Lannan out of Siena College. A durable and servicable lefty starter with MLB average numbers out of a small college in the 11th round is a great find.
2005 12th rnd: Craig Stammen out of Dayton. He didn’t look as if he’d be successful until his transition to the bullpen, where his arm action and movement have baffled hitters during his shorter reliever stints.
2006 41st rnd: Brad Peacock out of a Florida HS as a “draft and follow” guy (which enabled teams to take late round fliers on good talent, so this isn’t exactly the same as finding a true 41st round player who made the majors, since Peacock likely wouldn’t have been taken without the DDE rules in place and would have been an upper round draft pick the next season he was eligible).
2007 2nd rnd: Jordan Zimmermann out of U Wisconsin Stevens Point (not because of his draft position, but because of the scouting out of such a small school). Zimmermann survived TJ surgery and now looks like a hidden Ace in the making.
2007 4th rnd: Derek Norris out of a Kansas HS: possibly the best HS player the team has drafted since arriving in DC.
2008 10th rnd: Tommy Milone out of USC. Rizzo may not have rated him, but he looks to be in Oakland’s rotation for many years to come.
2008 16th rnd: Tyler Moore out of Mississippi State. Scouts continually have downplayed Moore’s power; I have never read a scouting report on Moore that didn’t focus on “holes in his swing” or “defensive liabilities.” All he’s done is mash the ball at every level he’s been challenged with in his career.
2008 19th rnd: Steve Lombardozzi out of St. Petersburg JuCo. Despite his pedigree (his father played in the Majors in parts of 6 seasons), Lombardozzi was lightly pursued and surprisingly signed as a late round JuCo draftee. He’s scraped his way to the top though and could find himself starting if the team decides to move Espinosa.

Despite the issues at the top of the 2008 draft, it may have been Bowden’s best. He took no less than 6 guys who now are on 25-man rosters in this league (Milone, Moore, Lombardozzi, Espinosa, and Crow). 2005 wasn’t bad either, with 7 guys that have MLB appearances (though only 3 remain with the team).

Bowden’s Worst Draft Picks

2006: almost the entire draft. Bowden blew the first 6 picks on high schoolers, the best of whom was Chris Marrero, who has contributed -0.7 WAR in his career thus far. First round pick Colten Willems flamed out and just gave up playing in the middle of the 2010 season, Stephen Englund was released (but not before earning a 50-game suspension for Amphetemine usage), Sean Black didn’t sign and Stephen King has yet to succeed above A-ball despite being in his his 6th pro season (and, just for good measure, had his own 50-game drug suspension in 2009). Only one player in the top 12 rounds of picks even played a day in the majors. Just a complete debacle of a draft.
2007’s high schoolers: Smoker, Souza, Burgess, and Smolinkski: all top 3 round picks, all busts.
2007’s Jack McGeary, who insisted (admirably) on also going to college, but probably at the detriment of his baseball career. I’m sorry; if someone pays you $1.8M dollars in cash, you probably should work for that money. McGeary never was able to master anything above rookie ball and was so under-valued by the team that they failed to protect him in the minor league phase of the 2012 Rule 5 draft (where he was subsequently taken by Boston).
The 2008 Aaron Crow debacle. Yes I know that this pick turned into 2009’s Drew Storen. And yes I know that Crow has now been turned into a middle reliever while Storen has turned into an effective closer. At the time, this move helped continue the “incompetent” labels that the organization was earning, as Bowden reportedly refused to negotiate with Crow’s agents and failed to do his due diligence before drafting the player. Who is to say whether Crow’s electric arm wouldn’t have turned into a regular rotation member in our organization (Kansas City doesn’t exactly have a stellar record of developing pitchers). In the end, getting Storen and also not losing the opportunity cost of missing a year’s development time of a first round pick (by virtue of the rest of the team being so awful) ended up not hurting the team. But it still goes down as a draft failure for Bowden.

Mike Rizzo Tenure: Mar 2009 – present

Rizzo’s Biggest Draft Picks (in terms of dollars committed).

2009 1st rnd: Stephen Strasburg: $7.5M bonus, 15.1M guaranteed
2010 1st rnd: Bryce Harper: $6.25M bonus, $9.9M guaranteed
2011 1st rnd: Anthony Rendon: $6M, $7.2M guaranteed
2011 3rd rnd: Matthew Purke: $2.75M bonus, $4.15M guaranteed
2011 1st rnd (supplemental): Brian Goodwin: $3M
2012 1st rnd: Lucas Giolito: $2.9M
2011 1st rnd: Alex Meyer: $2M
2010 4th rnd: A.J. Cole: $2M
2009 1st rnd: Drew Storen: $1.6M

As we saw with the Free Agent post, Rizzo clearly had more money to work with from Ownership than Bowden did. Spending $2M on a 4th round pick (AJ Cole) would have been unheard of in the Bowden reign.

Rizzo’s Best Draft Picks

2009 12th rnd: Nathan Karns out of Texas Tech: Karns got 4th/5th round money in the 12th round but has been bedeviled by injuries until this year. By now we know what he’s capable of; our organization’s Minor League pitcher of the Year earned a spot on the 40-man roster and could be in line for a 2013 late season call-up. It could be too-early to tell, but right now this is looking like one of Rizzo’s best.
2009 22nd rnd: Danny Rosenbaum out of Xavier; despite the team not protecting him and losing him in Rule-5, he had come out of no-where to be one of our best pitching prospects.
2010 12th rnd: Robbie Ray out of a Tennessee HS; he had a great debut and has been steadily rising up the ranks. The team was able to buy him out of a committment to the University of Arkansas by offering 2nd round money.
2010 22nd rnd: Cameron Selik as a U Kansas senior has made it to AA and looks like a great later-round steal, especially for a college senior this low in the draft.
2011 5th rnd: Matt Skole out of Georgia Tech looks like he could be an excellent hitting prospect and is making it into the top 5 lists of Nationals prospects.
2011 1st rnd supp: Brian Goodwin out of a Miami JuCo looks more advanced than anyone would have thought at this point, and could be pressing for playing time in 2013. I don’t normally give plaudits for 1st round talents, but the team aggressively pursued and captured Goodwin at a time when it looked like he was heading to UNC.

Rizzo’s Worst Draft Picks

2009 2nd rnd: Jeff Kobernus out of Cal Berkeley. Perhaps less because of his production (which was mostly poor for his career), but moreso because the decision not to protect him and value your investment in the player, leading to his departure in the 2012 rule-5 draft. No worries for Nats fans: Rizzo drafted almost the doppelganger of Kobernus in 2012: again taking a 2nd baseman from California in the second round (Tony Renda). Lets hope it works out better this time.
2009 3rd rnd: Trevor Holder out of Georgia. A blatant punt on the draft pick to save money, Holder was a college senior with zero leverage and should have been offered closer to $1,000 instead of the $200,000 he got. Holder has struggled for years in our system. He did have a decent 2nd half in Harrisburg, so there is hope yet. But 3rd round picks should have more promise than Holder has shown.
2010 3rd rnd: Rick Hague out of Rice. He hasn’t lived up to his 3rd round billing yet, though (to be fair) he has struggled with some injuries.

Rizzo’s Too Soon to Tell Draft Picks

2010 2nd rnd: Sammy Solis was looking promising out of U San Diego, but has been side lined by Tommy John Surgery.
The 2011 college-arm gamble: Rizzo drafted dozens of college players this draft, stocking the system with experienced amateurs.
2012 1st: the Lucas Giolito gamble won’t play itself out for a couple of years, but it is safe to say Rizzo went “all in” on this player. A 1-1 talent but damaged goods upon drafting, the team is putting a lot of faith into its experience in dealing with hurlers going through Tommy John.
2011 3rd: Matt Purke got a MLB deal and a whole lot of money, and has done relatively nothing to earn it because of lingering shoulder injuries. I’m listing him as too early to tell, but the signs are not good.

Written by Todd Boss

December 28th, 2012 at 10:02 am

Rule 5 Losses: odds of them coming back?

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Danny Rosenbaum gets drafted by Colorado in the Rule 5 draft. Photo Jeff Mankie via insidenova.com

The Rule 5 draft was conducted on 12/5/12, the last day of the Winter meetings, and the Nats farm system took a hit.

In the Major League Phase (full results from mlbtraderumors.com), we lost:

Danny Rosenbaum, who was drafted 3rd overall by the Colorado Rockies.
Jeff Kobernus, who was taken 7th overall by the Boston Red Sox, and immediately flipped to Detroit for a utility player.

Rosenbaum’s drafting isn’t a huge surprise, given his stature as the leading lefty starter prospect in our system and consistently being mentioned in top 10 lists and all-star teams. Rosenbaum’s problem is that he projects as a classic back-of-the-rotation lefty; decent but not eye-popping velocity, good control, keeping the ball in the park and giving you consistent innings, and the Nationals current management has little use for such a player. He projects almost exactly like John Lannan and Tommy Milone, two lefties that Rizzo didn’t covet and who were either flipped or non-tendered. Now, before bemoaning Rosenbaum’s loss too much, the odds of him being returned seem nearly 100%: Colorado is absolute hell on pitchers. He joins a team which lost 98 games and whose BEST starter last year posted a 4.43 ERA. Colorado is stock piling young starter prospects, running them through an unconventional pitch count limit system, and (I guess) seeing who stands out. Is Rosenbaum any better than the large handful of starters there already? I don’t think so; I suspect he’ll be back. Lets just hope he doesn’t return as damaged goods, as Brad Meyer was late last season.

Kobernus has to be excited; he goes from presumably being stuck in the minors for another year to getting a chance to make the 25-man roster team of the defending AL champs as a utility infielder. Our 2009 2nd round pick signed an under-slot deal (as did nearly everyone else in that draft thanks to the monies paid to Strasburg and Storen) and has posted decent if not flashy numbers in a steady progression through the system. In 2012 his slash line in AA was .282/.325/.333 and he was a mid-season all-star. I guess the team decided it just didn’t need a middle infielder who had little to no power (his best OPS season was in 2011 where he just reached .700). Can he stick in Detroit? I suspect he could, given the role he’s asked to perform. However, I worry that (much like Erik Komatsu in 2011, who it should be noted was NOT picked this year despite still being rule-5 eligible) he won’t be able to hit consistently enough to stay with the big team and may eventually be returned.

In the AAA phase, the team also lost:

Jack McGeary, taken by Boston.
Hector Nelo, taken by the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The departure of McGeary represents the end of a relatively tumultuous relationship between the one time upper-end prospect and team, and serves as a continuing cautionary tale of the risks behind drafting and paying high-end high school arms. McGeary wanted to attend Stanford and worked out a part-time playing deal to allow him to attend school. Admirable, but not exactly what a team expects for a $1.8M investment. After a couple of years he decided to finally focus on baseball first, but blew out his elbow in June 2010. His late 2011 return looked promising, but injuries cost him most of 2012 as well, pitching a grand total of 9 1/3 innings this year. After 6 full pro seasons he had yet to advance further than Low-A. Nats prospect fans have waited years and years for the likes of McGeary, Josh Smoker, Colton Willems and other top-5 talent High school arms to pan out, and have been left wanting. Arguably the best HS arm the team has drafted since relocating to Washington is Patrick McCoy, a lefty with halfway decent numbers in AA this past year and who has been passed over in two successive rule 5 drafts. At least the current regime seems to understand this; they’ve signed exactly three HS arms in the last three drafts combined and they’re all familiar names (Giolito, Cole, Ray).

Nelo ended the year as the AA closer, with pretty decent numbers, but himself was a 2011 minor league free agent and seemingly was considered nothing more than an organizational arm for the team. He was a right handed reliever in a system filled with such players , and his departure shouldn’t be missed too much.

In the end, the Rule 5 draft was as we expected it; it was rather anti-climactic for Nats fans who thought we may get a new player or two to try out. But as has been stated elsewhere, when the 25-man roster is nearly finalized for the 2013 season, there exists little need to experiment with a rule 5 draftee.

Written by Todd Boss

December 6th, 2012 at 1:09 pm

2013 Projected Pitching Staffs and Rotations; entire Nats system

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After finishing the evaluation of all 6 minor league pitching staffs, plus finally finishing (and posting yesterday) the MLB season review, here’s an entirely too-early projection of what the staffs and rotations may look like in 2013. This post assumes for the time being that all major and minor league FAs will opt out and we’ll be looking to fill spots. In these cases I’ll mark FAs to be as needed, though we very well may acquire these players in trade.

Note: some of these projections are slightly different from the original reviews posted in the per-level links, to account for moves, performances and roster moves that have already happened or seem set to happen this off-season. I’ve also made some slight adjustments in order to make the rotations and bullpens work at each level.

(notations: FA = free agent, MLFA == Minor League Free Agent)

Staff Review links: MLB is here, AAA is here, AA is here, High-A is here, Low-A is here, Short-A is here, GCL is here.

MLB Rotation: Strasburg, Gonzalez, Zimmermann, Detwiler, FA or other acquisition
MLB Bullpen: Clippard, Storen, Mattheus, Stammen, Garcia, a FA left-hander (possibly Burnett), a FA long-man (possibly Gorzelanny).
MLB notables Out of Organization: Jackson, Burnett, Gonzalez, Lannan, Wang

MLB Narrative: 4/5ths of the rotation are no-brainers. The 5th starter is the question mark for 2013. Do we re-sign Jackson and pay him more as a 5th starter than our big 3 guys? It doesn’t seem so after the team declined to give him a Qualifying Offer. Do we trade from depth (RH relief, middle infield) and find a 5th starter that way? Do we find a 5th starter from within? Meanwhile the bullpen is now full of hard throwing righties, but we could lose all 3 of our lefties. We may need to work the phones to retain these guys, or else we’re on the FA market. I think (despite my discussion about converting Garcia to a 5th starter) that he’ll remain in the bullpen and may bump Henry Rodriguez out of a job. One of our two closer-quality guys (Clippard and Storen) could be moved, cashing in on their value, which could open up a spot for a FA acquisition or a promotion from AAA.

Lots to be decided this off-season for Mike Rizzo, and this hasn’t even mentioned the dominos that will fall if/when the team makes a contract decision on Adam LaRoche.

AAA Rotation: Roark, Maya, Broderick, Meyers, Perry
AAA Bullpen: Tatusko (swingman), Arneson (swingman), Severino (loogy), Davis, Lehman, Nelo (closer), Martin, Mandel

AAA Narrative: We have a lot of long-serving minor leaguers here; as it stands now only a few of them are even 40-man roster guys (Maya, Perry, Garcia). The modern AAA roster construction is one of “spare parts” and prospects; do we have enough prospects to cover for injuries at the MLB level? Which one of these AAA starters would Nats fans feel comfortable filling in were one of our starters to go down with injury? Perhaps the Nats need to work on some starter depth via trade. Brad Meyers was just returned from the Yankees after a season-long DL stint after being Rule-5 drafted, and seems likely to slot right back into the AAA rotation when he’s healthy. Perry seems set to get a 4th option and should slot in here, looking to convert back to being a starter. Broderick is a former Rule-5 pick and was claimed from St. Louis, who dumped him late last season. I don’t think he’s anything more than a 4-A starter, but the organization seems to like him.

AA Rotation: Rosenbaum, Holder, Gilliam, Karns, Grace, Demny (swingman?) or MLFA? Solis if he’s healthy?
AA Bullpen: Frias, McCoy, Selik (maybe high-A again), Holland (setup), Wort (closer), VanAllen (loogy), Demmin (maybe high-A again), an org arm or two to fill in.

AA narrative: We have a couple of interesting candidates in the AA rotation to start, but what may be more interesting is to see whether the likes of Gilliam and Demny hold onto their spots with the talent ready to rise up out of high-A. Meanwhile, the bullpen has some interesting arms to keep an eye on. I forgot to mention Solis in the AA write-up but remembered him here. Two big questions for me in this AA rotation for 2013: 1) is Rosenbaum for real or is he going to sputter out before reaching MLB potential? And, 2) Is Nathan Karns ready to make the leap? I think Karns can quickly put his name in the mix to get promoted to AAA based on his performance in 2012.

High-A Rotation: Swynenberg, Ray, Meyer (maybe AA?), Schwartz (maybe low-A), Rauh (maybe low-A)
High-A Bullpen Competition: Barrett (maybe AA) , Testa, Smoker (loogy), Hill, Meza (perhaps a starter?), Holt, Hawkins, Bates, Mirowski
High-A bullpen Release candidates: Olbrychowski, McCatty, Applebee

High-A narrative: there’s too many arms for too few slots right now in all three of the A-levels. There’s a ton of release candidates, and some guys who could be higher or lower. I’d love to be a fly on the wall at the organizational meetings where all this evaluation is done. Meyer dominated High-A last year; could he start in AA? Barrett (by virtue of his AFL appearance) may also be AA material.

The same goes for the Low-A team below: I’ve got 5 logical rotation candidates, another 4 guys who make sense to be in the low-A rotation, and a slew of guys who seem to have earned their way to the low-A bullpen. But there’s only 7 slots to go around.

Low-A Rotation: Turnbull, Jordan, Purke (if healthy), Monar, Mooneyham
Low-A Rotation Competitors: Hansen, Lee (loogy if not), Encarnation, McGeary (if finally healthy)
Low-A Bullpen Competition: Anderson, Estevez, Dupra, McKenzie, Henke, Davis, Boyden, Benincasa, Hudgins, Dicherry, Mudron

We acknowledge the folly of trying to predict short-season staffs which will mostly be populated with 2013 draftees, especially under the new CBA that shortens negotiation times, making it more likely college seniors are drafted (who sign quickly with zero leverage) and get playing. That being said, there will definitely be guys who stay in extended spring training for a couple months and then get placed on these rosters along with new draftees. Here’s some guesses based on 2012 performances; all blank spots filled by 2013 draftees or by some of the guys who drop down from low-A.

Short-A Rotation: Baez, Pineyro
Short-A Bullpen: Smith (if not released), Fischer, Medina, Pena, Mendez

GCL blank spots filled by younger 2013 draftees (HS, Juco and college juniors/seniors from smaller schools) and by rising DSL grads.

GCL Rotation: Mieses (if not released), Barrientos, Vasquez
GCL Bullpen: Heredes

Written by Todd Boss

November 6th, 2012 at 9:16 am

Posted in Majors Pitching,Minor League Pitching,Rule-5

Tagged with aaron barrett, adalberto mieses, adam laroche, adam olbrychowski, alex meyer, atahualpa severino, ben hawkins, blake monar, blake schwarz, bobby hansen, brad meyers, brett mooneyham, brian broderick, brian dupra, brian rauh, cameron selik, christian garcia, christian meza, christopher mckenzie, cody davis, colin bates, corey vanallen, craig stammen, danny rosenbaum, daury vasquez, david fischer, dixon anderson, drew storen, edwin jackson, erik arneson, erik davis, gilberto mendez, gio gonzalez, gregory baez, gregory holt, hector nelo, henry rodriguez, inocencio heredes, ivan pineyro, jack mcgeary, jason smith, jeff mandel, joe testa, joel barrientos, jordan zimmermann, josh smoker, kevin dicherry, kylin turnbull, marcos frias, matt swyndenberg, matthew grace, matthew purke, michael boyden, mike mudron, mike rizzo, nathan karns, neil holland, nicholas lee, pat lehman, pat mccoy, paul applebee, paul demny, pedro encarnation, rafael martin, richie mirowski, rob wort, robbie ray, robert benincasa, robert gilliam, ronald pena, ross detwiler, ryan demmin, ryan mattheus, ryan perry, ryan tatusko, sammy solis, shane mccatty, silvio medina, stephen strasburg, tanner roark, taylor hill, taylor jordan, travis henke, trevor holder, tyler clippard, wil hudgins, wirkin estevez, yunesky maya

Nats 2012 Minor League Rotations: Guesses and Results

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Yunesky Maya led the Nats minor league starters for the 2nd straight summer. Photo Jim McGregor/Syracuse Chiefs via milb.com

I stumbled across this post, titled “Updated Minor League Rotation Predictions for 2012,” posted March 1st 2012, while looking for something else last week. And I thought to myself, hey now that I’ve finished the reviews of the minor league teams, lets see how I did predicting the rotations at the beginning of the season! I’ve also culled through the post-2011 season review posts for some preliminary guesses at the time.

(Note: I linked to NationalsProspects.com Luke Erickson‘s guesses in the above link for another perspective in the 2012 spring training).

Players are bolded the first time they’re mentioned, but not afterwards.

AAA:

Sept 11 Guess: Maya, Milone, Stammen, Meyers, Peacock, Martis
Mar 12 Guess: Stammen, Maya, Arneson, Ballard, Buschmann
Opening Day Rotation: Atkins, Roark, Maya, Lannan and Duke
5 guys with the most starts in 2012: Maya, Roark, Duke, Lannan, Atkins

What happened? My prediction was way, way off; only Maya was the constant, but we knew that the second he proved he couldn’t get out MLB hitters last fall. The team traded two of its probable AAA starters (Peacock and Milone), lost a third to the Rule-5 draft (Meyers, who honestly we probably will get back once the Yankees are done screwing around with him) and a 4th to Minor League Free Agency (Martis). Meanwhile, who knew that Lannan wasn’t going to make the MLB opening day roster? Then, the team released Buschmann before he appeared in a game (he played 2012 in the Tampa Bay organization). Ballard was a starter, just not in AAA. Stammen, in a surprise to me, made the conversion from AAA starter in 2011 to MLB bullpen guy and had a great year. Lastly, instead of using more internal options like Roark the team signed two MLFAs in Duke and Atkins. I suppose I could have guessed that the team would go with Roark before Arneson as a starter (given Arneson’s rubber-armed handling in 2011). It just goes to show how much the creation of AAA teams has changed over the years.

AA:

Sept 11 Guess: Rosenbaum, Bronson, Demny, Olbrychowski, Solis
Mar 12 Guess: Rosenbaum, Bronson, Demny, Olbrychowski, Gilliam
Opening Day Rotation: Gilliam, Demny, Mandel, Rosenbaum and Ballard
5 guys with the most starts in 2012: Rosenbaum, Demny, Gilliam, Perry, Ballard/Pucetas

We were a bit closer here, getting 3 of the 5 guesses right. Sammy Solis would absolutely have been in this rotation if not for his Tommy John surgery; we’ll cross our fingers for him to return in 2013. When Solis went out, org-arm Mandel filled in. Evan Bronson is still with the organization on Milb.com but never threw an inning in 2012 and isn’t on the Big Board. I can’t find a single bit of google information indicating if he’s still with the team or not. Weird. Meanwhile I had just guessed too high for Olbrychowski; he spent most of 2012 as a starter in Potomac. Nobody could have guessed that we’d have traded Balester for Perry, that Perry would have stunk as a reliever, and then would show up in AA remaking himself as a starter. Ballard and Pucetas were MLFA pickups designed to fill holes in the system, though based on his prior experience I had Ballard pegged in the AAA rotation.

High-A:

Sept 11 Guess: Selik, Grace, Purke, Meyer, Hill, Karns
Mar 12 Guess: Selik, Grace, Purke, Meyer, Hill
Opening Day Rotation: Winters, Hansen, Olbrychowski, Grace and Swynenberg
5 guys with the most starts in 2012: Grace, Ray, Swynenberg, Olbrychowski, Karns

I was far off here as well; Purke got hurt, Meyer, Hill and Karns started lower than I would have guessed and Selik was converted to a reliever. I was right only on Grace (thought technically I thought Olbrychowski would be a starter, just not back in Potomac). Winters was a MLFA (the fifth such MLFA who has appeared as a primary starter in our top three levels; is this a statement of some sort?). As we’ll see in a moment, I was right about Hansen, just wrong about the level. Lastly Swynenberg came out of nowhere; he was effective in middle-relief in low-A; who knew he’d win a spot in the high-A rotation? I thought Ray would have done a few turns in low-A; instead he debuted in Potomac and struggled to make the jump. I lost faith in Karns between September 2011 and March 2012; as it turned out he was one of the 5 top starters (in terms of appearances) for the year while putting in a career season.

Low-A:

Sept 11 Guess: Hansen, Jordan, Cole, Ray, Estevez, McGeary
Mar 12 Guess: Turnbull, Hansen, Ray, McGeary, Karns
Opening Day Rotation: Estevez, Dupra/Karns, Meyer, Turnbull/Hill, McKenzie
5 guys with the most starts in 2012: Hill, Meyer, Turnbull, Estevez, Hansen

What happened? The team traded Cole. Jordan was injured more than we were led to believe in late 2011 (he had Tommy John surgery after the season was over). I predicted Hansen, Ray, Hill, Estevez, Meyers and Dupra would be starters, just got the levels wrong. My Mar 12 guesses were somewhat accurate in that we got Turnbull and Karns right. McGeary struggled through yet another injury filled season and may be nearing the end of his baseball career. I thought Estevez was getting squeezed out with all these high-profile starters rising up. I figured McKenzie had lost his starting shot; clearly his performance in 2012 should end his chances at getting another 2013 starting shot. I guess the lesson here is that it can be awful difficult to determine the difference between a High-, Low- and Short-A guy.

Short-A:

Sept 11 Guess: Manny Rodriguez, Dupra, Baez and two draft picks.
Mar 12 Guess: Manny Rodriguez, Dupra, Baez and two draft picks
Opening Day Rotation: Jordan/Medina, Baez, Monar, Encarnation, and Smith
5 guys with the most starts in 2012: Encarnation, Monar, Lee, Mooneyham, Fischer/Pineyro

My guess of 3 returners and 2 draft picks wasn’t entirely accurate; there wasn’t a single 2012 draft pick in the 2012 opening day rotation. We got Baez pegged correctly but the rest of the predictions were off. Manny Rodriguez, a converted infielder, spent the whole year on the 60-day DL. Dupra was in high-A. Meanwhile, a couple of guys dropping down from Low-A (Jordan, Encarnation) comprised the rotation at the beginning of the season. Monar was a repeater from 2011 who didn’t get a ton of innings last year. Eventually some 2012 draftees (Mooneyham, Fischer and others) got starts as expected, and helped drive Auburn to the playoffs.

GCL:

Sept 11 Guess: Mieses, King, Encarnation, Medina, Marcelino
Mar 12 Guess: Mieses repeating plus 4 guys from DSL and the 2012 draft.
Opening Day Rotation: Mieses, Barrientos, Pineyro, Vasquez, and Schwarz
5 guys with the most starts in 2012: Vasquez, Mieses, Hudgins, Selsor, Pineyro/Schwartz

Finally we got one right (well, right from Mar 12 guess anyway). The GCL rotation was Mieses, 3 DSL graduates and one 2012 draftee. Eventually more 2012 draftees (Hudgins, Selsor and others) consumed most of the rest of the starts. King disappeared from the rosters; he’s still in the organization but was never assigned this season. Injured? Disciplinary issues? There seems to be so much inconsistency in the DSL graduates that it almost isn’t worth tracking them until they appear in a higher level. Honestly, this is why I don’t really follow the Dominican Summer League teams either.

Phew; that’s a lot of Nats minor league starters. As it showed, its really, really difficult to predict this stuff from a computer in Northern Virginia, scouting the stat lines. But its really fun, so we’ll continue to do it :-).

Written by Todd Boss

September 21st, 2012 at 10:03 am

Posted in Minor League Pitching,Rule-5

Tagged with adalberto mieses, adam olbrychowski, aj cole, alex meyer, anthony marcelino, blake monar, blake schwarz, bobby hansen, brad meyers, brad peacock, brandon king, brett mooneyham, brian dupra, cameron selik, casey selsor, christopher mckenzie, collin balester, craig stammen, danny rosenbaum, daury vasquez, david fischer, erik arneson, evan bronson, gregory baez, ivan pineyro, jack mcgeary, jason smith, jeff mandel, joel barrientos, john lannan, kevin pucetas, kyle winters, kylin turnbull, luke erickson, manny rodriguez, matt swyndenberg, matthew buschmann, matthew grace, matthew purke, mike ballard, mitch atkins, nathan karns, nicholas lee, paul demny, pedro encarnation, robbie ray, robert gilliam, ryan perry, sammy solis, shairon martis, silvio medina, tanner roark, taylor hill, taylor jordan, tommy john, tommy milone, wil hudgins, wirkin estevez, yunesky maya, zach duke

Potomac/High-A Pitching Staff Year in Review; 2012

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Nathan Karns parlayed his first healthy pro season into an Organizational POTY award. Photo Potomac Nationals official via milb.com
Click here for the 2011 version of this post, for a look at how things were last year.

Here’s the High-A version of the 2012 season pitching staff review. I’m going down the line from top to bottom; AAA is here, AA is here. As with the other reviews, we’ll look at the main rotation, the substitute and spot starters, then focus on key relievers. Rehab appearances are generally not mentioned.

Potomac starters. The rotation started the season with Winters, Hansen, Olbrychowski, Grace and Swynenberg. Lets see how the original rotation and other primary starters fared.

Kyle Winters, an off season minor league free agent pickup, was Potomac’s opening day starter. But he wasn’t long for the rotation; he got shelled en-route to posting a 7.02 era in 8 starts before getting released. It does not seem like anyone else picked him up (except perhaps in Indy ball). Lets be honest; it is never a good sign to have minor league free agents playing significant roles on high-A ball clubs. Outlook for next season: in another organization or out of baseball.
High-A proved to be too much for Bobby Hansen, who put up a 5.85 ERA in 6 starts (9 total appearances) before being moved back to Low-A, where he spent 2011. He’s young; he has yet to turn 23, so even low-A isn’t the worst place for him. But he’ll be entering his 6th pro season in 2013 and you’d like to see him throw more than 50 innings in a season. Outlook for next season: see the Low-A post.
Adam Olbrychowski wasn’t able to build on his 2011 season in High-A, regressing badly and posting a 6.24 ERA in 26 appearances (16 starts). He lost his rotation spot halfway through the season and didn’t fare well out of the pen. This trade didn’t work out for either team really (the Nats traded Justin Maxwell to the Yankees for Olbrychowski in January 2011 and released him themselves; he now plays for Houston). Outlook for next season: either one last shot in the High-A bullpen or released.
Matthew Grace put in his third year as a full-time starter with the Organization, and he continues to be hit or miss. On the season he posted a 9-12 record with a 4.84 ERA and 83/48 k/bb ratio in 141 1/3 innings, but you never know what you’re getting with him. His final start of the season featured 8 shutout innings, but his first start in August was a 3-inning 9 hit meltdown. Outlook for next season: the organization stuck with him after a 5.17 ERA in a full season of low-A; no reason to think they won’t continue to stick with him in 2013. AA rotation, perhaps re-peating High-A if the numbers don’t work out.
Matt Swynenberg was in and out of the rotation, not really excelling as either a starter or a reliever on the year. 7-5, 4.92 ERA on the season. He was a bit unlucky on the season; he had a .343 BABIP and his FIP was a bit lower than his ERA. Outlook for next season: he’s still young (turned 23 in February) and has plenty of time to improve. And, given that he was a 28th round draft pick, anything he contributes is absolute gravy to the organization). Look for him to be leading the High-A rotation in 2013 with an eye for mid-season promotion.
Robbie Ray was last year’s sensation, an 19-yr old dominating in Low-A. He clearly suffered from a sophomore slump, going 4-12 with a 6.56 ERA in 22 “starts” (I put that in quotes since he had one 5-inning “relief” appearance in June). What happened? His K’s were down, Walks up, HRs up, BABIP unlucky, and his FIP was a full point and a half lower than his ERA. So it wasn’t as bad as it looked. Plus, he’s only 20 in high-A, where a lot of college guys take a year and a half to get to. I’m not worried at all; i’ll bet he’s back to being dominant in 2013 repeating the level. Outlook for next season: back in the High-A rotation.
Nathan Karns finally got a healthy full season of pitching under his belt after getting paid 3rd round money as a 12th round draft pick in the high-spending 2009 draft, and the organization finally got a look at what Karns can do: A 2.17 ERA in 24 appearances (18 starts) across 116 innings between low- and high-A. This was no fluke either; all his advanced stats support his performance and give reason to believe he’ll continue to develop. He was named the Organization’s Pitcher of the Year for 2012, usually a great indicator of future success for this team. He’s a big guy with a great pitching frame (6’5″, 230lbs) and an even better mustache (see his profile picture at milb.com). I think Karns may be our best or 2nd best starter prospect right now. A ight concern may be his hitting the DL in mid-August after a couple of mediocre outings; I’d guess that he’s reached an innings limit for the season and was shutdown with an unspecified injury. This may also explain why he’s not appearing in the AFL after such a season. Outlook for next season: AA rotation.
Trevor Holder finally got promoted past high-A after repeating the league for the 4th time in 2012. He got 10 starts in Potomac before being moved up mid-season. He was pretty good in his 9 starts in High-A this year: 3-3 with a 3.72 ERA. Outlook for next season: (from the AA post): AA Rotation.
Alex Meyer excelled in 7 late-season starts in Potomac after throwing 90 innings in low-A to start the year. Final high-A stats: 3-2 with a 2.31 ERA in 39 innings. His ancillary numbers declined slightly moving from low- to high-A (as one would expect), but his core capabilities seem to be the same. He’s a HUGE guy (6’9″) and the downward plane on his fastball makes it incredibly difficult to hit in the air (only 6 homers allowed in 139IP). A lot of pundits (myself included) were critical of Meyer starting in low-A as such an advanced draft prospect, but his numbers in high-A (a more legitimate evaluation of his skills age- and experience-wise) give great hope. The organization has had him working on mechanics all year, worried that such a big guy was going to struggle to repeat his delivery (as highlighted by this Baseball America article, subscribers only sorry). After being basically a 2-pitch guy in college, Meyer has reportedly added a 2-seam fastball that he throws at the same velocity as his 4-seamer to go with an 87-mph change-up. Suddenly he’s a 4-pitch guy (2 plus-plus, one plus and one fringe) and that gives him a great chance of remaining a starter. A 6’9″ throwing upper 90s has to look like 100+ to a hitter based on his release point, and despite most scouts opinion that he’d make a fantastic shut-down closer with his 2 plus-plus pitches, he has more value to the team as a starter. Outlook for next season: I think he starts in High-A rotation again with an eye towards quick promotion to AA.
Robert Gilliam underperformed in AA, got demoted to high-A and gave Potomac 7 up-and-down starts down the stretch. Final numbers in Potomac: 1-2, 4.25 ERA in 36ip. Outlook for next season: (cut-n-pasted from AA post): The team likes him as a starter; i’m guessing they give him another whirl in the AA rotation with Meyer sitting in High-A waiting in the wings.
Taylor Hill got three late-season starts after toiling all year in Hagerstown. Outlook for next season: see Low-A post.

Other guys who got spot starts here and there (non-rehab):
- Ryan Demmin served as the mop-up/swing man for the team, giving them a K/9 reliever with a 4.57 ERA on the season. He got a couple of spot starts but only went 7 innings between the two. He gives up a lot of hits but doesn’t walk guys. He could continue to be a useful middle reliever. Outlook for next season: Likely the high-A bullpen again, though he could slot up to AA if the numbers don’t work out.
- Paul Applebee, as with Demmin, was used mostly as a long man and got a spot start before going down with injury in June. He wasn’t great when he did pitch (5.00 era in 36ip), but he’s been useful in the organization for a while. Outlook for next season: High-A mop-up guy again, not knowing how severe his arm injury is.

Potomac Relievers: taking a look at the relief corps at the end of the season. They used an awful lot of them.

Neil Holland continued an excellent string of seasons for this organization since being drafted in 2010. He was close to unhittable in 2012: a 1.64 era in 60 innings and a sub 1.00 whip. That’s fantastic. Outlook for next season: see if he can repeat his performance in AA.
Rob Wort had, frankly, a pretty amazing season as Potomac’s closer. He had an era of 2.38 over 56 2/3 innings, and had 13 saves. That’s not why he was amazing; He had 95 Ks in those same 56 2/3 innings. That is a 15.09 K/9 rate!! For a 30-th round draft pick (i.e., a guy who was never really expected to make it out of rookie camp), that’s incredible. Outlook for next season: closer in AA.
Joe Testa couldn’t repeat his excellent 2011 Potomac results, putting up an ugly 5.17 era in 38 IP. The ugly part? A perfect 1-1 ratio of walks to strikeouts on the year (31 walks, 31 Ks). He turning 27 in December and is entering his 6th minor league season; I think its safe to say 2013 is a “show me” year for Testa. Outlook for next season: hard to see him moved up to AA; I see him repeating in the High-A bullpen, perhaps a pure Loogy.
Cameron Selik looked to have “figured out” the bullpen after being a starter for most of 2011, and had a fantastic 34/3 k/bb ratio in 22 high-A innings. He earned a promotion, but begged out of his AA debut with what probably was a torn Lat. He didn’t pitch again after June 5th. A shame, since it would have been nice to see how he fared upon reaching AA. Outlook for next season: I’d start him in the High-A bullpen again to make sure he’s healthy, then promote him up to AA.
Aaron Barrett has gone from unknown 9th rounder to organizational top prospect in one season; after tearing through Low-A with 52 Ks in 34 innings, he allowed just 2 runs in 17 high-A innings to close out the year. His performance earned him a trip to the Arizona Fall League along with a number of other high-profile Nats prospects. Outlook for next season: As with Selik, I’d imagine he belongs in the AA bullpen; we’ll see if the numbers work out. If not he starts in Potomac looking for a quick jump.
Josh Smoker, the Nats poster child for NOT drafting high school arms early, threw a grand total of 9.2 innings between three levels this year. Its hard to believe, but he’ll play his 6th minor league season in our system in 2013 and then he’ll likely move on. Outlook for next season: if healthy, High-A bullpen to try one last time to resurrect his Nats career.
Other Relievers who appeared in High-A of note (not including Rehabbing MLBers): Outlook for next season for all of these guys seems the same: either continued “org guy” middle reliever or minor league FA in another organization.
- Adam Carr, a 28-yr old in high-A after spending most of 2011 in AAA. Org arm.
- Jimmy Barthmaier looked great in 19 High-A innings; he should since he’s 28 and in his 8th minor league season.
- Shane McCatty struggled through a 6-week mid-season injury and an 8.83 ERA in high-A. Nepotism seems to indicate that he’ll get another shot in 2013, deserved or not.
- Wilson Eusebio was promoted twice, both times inexplicably based on his performance, and ended up getting lit up in Potomac. He may be out of baseball after 2012.

Summary

Summary Potomac’s 5 opening day starters finished the season with these ERAs: 7.02, 5.85, 6.24, 4.84 and 4.92. Thankfully guys like Meyer, Holder and Karns replaced some of these starts with decent ones later on in the season. They got great performances up and down the bullpen though, which helped the team to remain in playoff contention late into the 2nd half (despite their sub .500 record). At least they were dominant at home (21-13 first half, 21-15 second half), giving the Potomac fans a lot to cheer for.

Outlook for next season: see the Low-A post.

Written by Todd Boss

September 14th, 2012 at 11:02 am

Updated Minor League Rotation Predictions for 2012

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Solis’ TJ surgery news thins our already-too-thin starting pitching minor league depth. Photo via Natsinsider blog/Mark Zuckerman

With Spring Training in full swing, most of the focus is on the Nationals 25-man roster and who may or may not make it. Even with the additions to the major league roster, our minor league starter development is still incredibly important to this team for the long run. Despite having Strasburg, Zimmermann and Gonzalez each locked up for many years (roughly, 2016, 2016 and 2018 respectively with options exercised), the rest of the rotation is not exactly set in stone for the long run. Wang and Jackson are on one-year FA contracts and Lannan doesn’t seem a lock to be tendered this coming off season (where he’ll face arbitration for the third time and, if he stays here and puts in 30 starts, could be in line for something close to $8M in 2013). That is, if Lannan is still even with the team in a year’s time (he seems surplus to requirements right now and may be a trade candidate).

Even more importantly, three key starters in our farm system went the other way for Gonzalez. Our 2012 AAA starter safety net of Milone and Peacock is now set to be the 4th and 5th starter in Oakland, and our most electric younger arm (Cole) is now one of Billy Beane‘s best prospects.

That being said, lets talk about what the 2012 minor league rotations may look like, and where interest may lie with up and coming arms. Experienced readers will note that, by and large, I only focus on minor league starters. That is because, for the very large part, that pitchers rise up in the minors as starters and only get converted to be relievers upon failing as starters. If you look at our current bullpen; Clippard, Rodriguez, Burnett, Gorzelanny, Detwiler and Lidge are all former starters, converted to being relievers either because of poor performance or for physical reasons. Only Storen has grown up entirely as a reliever. Therefore, the odds of a guy who is already pitching in relief in the lower minors rising up to be a part of the MLB bullpen is relatively slim. Loogies? Another matter, but still a difficult path (just ask someone like Josh Smoker). Therefore, I tend to focus on Starters with occasional lip service given to closers per level and other relievers who are pitching their way into promotions.

Luke Erickson has posted some predictions (for AAA, AA, high-A and low-A), I put in an updated guess on Syracuse’s rotation post Gonzalez trade, and I had a series of posts at the end of last season wrapping up each level with predictions for 2012. From all those posts, here’s my preliminary guesses on the rotations for the minor league rotations:

AAA: Stammen, Maya, Arneson, Ballard, Buschmann

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Erickson’s guesses of Atkins and Hernandez though replacing the last two; I’m guessing there’s going to be a wide-open competition for this rotation in this year’s spring training. And, I specifically did not include John Lannan here; I just cannot believe the team is going to stick him in Syracuse by virtue of his option after signing on to pay him $5M.

First man promoted: I’d guess Stammen, who did have some successes in last year’s call-up, but it’ll take a swine-flu epidemic in the Nationals clubhouse for him to get called up to make some starts. The MLB staff looks to have two former starters in their bullpen who will get the ball before Stammen gets a shot in 2012, and that doesn’t include the Wang/Lannan 5th starter conundrum.

First man demoted to the bullpen: Arneson; he’s bounced our system around like a pinball lately, and the team seems to use him as a multi-level handy-man instead of a starter prospect.

AA: Rosenbaum, Bronson, Demny, Gilliam, Olbrychowski

This list did have Sammy Solis until his TJ surgery was announced, and I put in Olbrychowski, who was halfway decent in a bunch of 2nd half starts in 2011. I do think Roark is done being a starter in this system but I could be wrong. Gilliam was the little-known make-weight player in the Gonzalez trade and I think he makes it to the Harrisburg roster.

First man promoted: Danny Rosenbaum, who aced Potomac last year and has the same make up as Lannan. But, unfortunately there’s no top-10 stars on this list that could make an immediate impact.

First man demoted to the bullpen: Obrychowski, who started 2011 in the pen and may be on a short leash if someone in Potomac lights it up.

High-A: Purke, Meyer, Selik, Grace, Hill

I think Purke is advanced enough to start here, as is Meyer. Of course, I also think Purke’s injury history could work against him and he ends up in extended spring for a bit. Either way, I think both would be poorly served by sticking them in Low-A. They’re both first round talents and need to be going against older, more advanced hitters right now. This rotation is the future for the Nats; if they can’t find a 2014 starter out of this group, then we’ll be spending a ton in the FA pitching market for years to come. This rotation is hurt by the loss of Taylor Jordan, who will be out the entirety of 2012 with TJ surgery after pitching very effectively for the first half of 2011 for Hagerstown. Hill is the name i’m least confident in, only putting him here by virtue of his being a senior draftee in 2011, thus he’d be at least 3 years too old for low-A this year.

First man promoted: Cameron Selik; the phenom from 2011’s Hagerstown staff already has a ton of Potomac experience and could move up soon. Despite their promise, I think both Purke and Meyers will be in Potomac for at least a half a season to get their professional legs.

First man demoted to the bullpen: Grace: he wasn’t entirely convincing as a starter in low-A, but his numbers were skewed by one or two really bad outings.

Low-A: Turnbull, Hansen, Ray, McGeary, Karns?

Maybe the 5th would be Karns, who if healthy could be a quick riser after so many injuries have derailed what was a promising young arm. I think Ray starts here again with the idea of quickly promoting him, despite his success here last year. He’s still young. Of course, I could also see Ray and Hill switching places between low- and high-A.

First man promoted: Robbie Ray: he out pitched AJ Cole last year without any of the Baseball America top 100 love. I think he’s the next in a long line of lower velocity but higher result lefty starters that the system has been developing (see Lannan, Detwiler to a certain extent, Solis, Rosenbaum and McGeary for comps).

First man demoted to the bullpen: Karns, if he’s here. I’m guessing Karns has this season to show that he continues to be a starter prospect, with a back-of-the-bullpen job waiting if he can’t show he’s durable enough to go 6 innings every 5 days.

Short-A: MRodriguez, Dupra, Baez and 2 draft picks.
GCL: Mieses repeating plus 4 guys from DSL and the 2012 draft.

There’s almost no point of trying to predict the short season rotations, but I do believe that the names listed here aren’t going to make the Low-A roster but are still worth keeping as starters in extended spring. We had almost no starter talent in the GCL last season, with only Mieses making enough of an impression to keep him in that role.

Lastly, Taylor Jordan and Sammy Solis start the year on the DL, unfortunately, both with Tommy John surgery. They would have both been prominent members of their rotations after great seasons last year, and their injuries further thin our starting pitching depth post Gonzalez trade.

Written by Todd Boss

March 1st, 2012 at 11:55 am

Nats Off-season News Items Wrap-up 11/25/11 edition

Ask Boswell 11/21/11 edition

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If you had to pick one player to start a team with ... you can't do much better than Tulowitzki. Photo unknown via facebook page.

With the Redskins losing games faster than the GOP loses presidential candidates, Tom Boswell did his weekly Monday chat on 11/21/11. He did take a ton of baseball questions; here’s how I’d have answered them.

As always, questions are edited for clarity and I answer here prior to reading his.

Q: Boz, If you pick any current baseball player (assuming current ages) to start a team with who would it be?

A: Great question. I’d probably go with a position player over a pitcher, just for risk’s sake. Has to be a young, already productive player. I’d focus on a marquee position that generally is difficult to fill. I’d probably go with Troy Tulowitzki. Also in the mix would be Matt Kemp, Ryan Braun, Jacoby Ellsbury, Evan Longoria, Felix Hernandez and Clayton Kershaw. These are all guys who are in their mid-20s and who have already proven they are accomplished, MVP/Cy Young calibre players. Boswell never answered.

Q: How is MLB going to come up with the 2013 schedule, with 15/15 team-league splits, constant interleague play and balanced opponents?

A: Who possibly knows. I just did some quick calculations and there’s not really an easy answer coming: Assuming a (more) balanced schedule:

6 home/6 away against 4 divisional rivals = 48 games.
3 home/3 away against 10 other league rivals = 60 games
3 home/3 away versus your “Natural Rival” = 6 games

That leaves 48 games to play. 48 games is 16 3-game series. That doesn’t really work out too well for 15-team leagues. Do you play every AL team once and double up somewhere? Do you focus on playing a home/away series with each of a 5-team AL division on a rotating basis? That would take away 10 of the 16 series but you still have 18 games to figure out. And, what happens when your rotating division ends up being the same as your Natural rival? Then you either play them as many times as you play your divisional rivals or you double up elsewhere.

Frankly, I think the unbalanced schedule needs to stay, if only to emphasize divisional rivalries. If you increase divisional games to 9 home/9 away then you have 72 games accounted for intra-division. Take away 60 regular season games intra-league and your 6-game set versus your “natural opponent” you’re left with exactly 24 games. That’s 8 three-game series, which still isn’t an even number but could be handled with a team playing an entire AL division (splitting home and away) and parts of another. I don’t know; there’s no real clean solution that makes itself evident.

Boswell also says he has no idea how the schedule will work.

Q: Better Pitcher for the Nats – Oswalt or Buerhle?

A: I’d rather have Oswalt frankly. Buehrle may be an innings eater but Oswalt is a better pitcher, an “Ace” without question just within the last couple of seasons. I don’t want a #3 starter; I want a guy to join my two best arms and give me something approaching a playoff rotation. Caveat; I have to be sure Oswalt is healthy. Does he have too many innings on that arm? Is he recovered from his back injury? The Nats are clearly favoring Buehrle right now, an indication that either they don’t trust Oswalt’s injury or they perceive that Oswalt wants to return to Texas. Boswell doesn’t really answer, just noting that Buehrle throws about as hard as Milone.

Q: So who do you think we have in CF starting next year?

A: Someone that we either sign or acquire from outside the organization. The easy guess would be BJ Upton, but a couple things have to happen before that happens. There’s a few other interesting options that could serve as another 1 year hold-over til we figure things out. I don’t see the team depending on Werth in center full time. Ankiel was excellent defensively but was awful at the plate and the team should go in a different direction. Boswell goes with Upton, after a non-tender.

Q: Boz – Rizzo makes numerous references to the Nats being open to trades. The team is in the unique position of having a surplus of young talent. Who do you think are the untouchables and who are the prospects that we may never see play in a Nats uniform because they were traded away?

A: Untouchables: Harper, Strasburg, Espinosa, Zimmerman, Rendon, Purke, Cole, Goodwin, Meyer, Norris, Peacock. Potentially in play for trades: Storen, Clippard, Solis, Ray, Desmond, Hood, Marrero, Detwiler, Lannan and pretty much anyone else. Prospects we may never see in a Nats uniform? That’s a harder question to guess on. There’s certainly guys who seem blocked in a certain extent, but I’m guessing we trade MLB talent to unblock them before we trade them as prospects. The team has come too far with its farm system to just throw away the fruits of it. Boswell agrees mostly; he’s too busy using these questions as a forum to trash the Redskins.

Q: So do you think there is a chance that they sign Zim to a long term contract now or are we in danger of him going to free agency? I don’t want to see him in a Yankees/Phillies uniform.

A: This is a better question for NEXT off-season. However if I’m Rizzo, and Zimmerman spends another couple months on the DL this season with some random injury, I’m really, really hesitant to give him a Troy Tulowitzki/Ryan Braun type of extension. I may just allow him to leave or trade him mid 2013 (assuming the team isn’t in 1st place at the time). By the way, he’ll never play for the Yankees; they have roughly $170M locked up in Alex Rodriguez‘s aging bat for the next decade. Phillies? I don’t think they have much in the way of payroll flexibility in the 2013 timeframe. A real possibility is Boston; i have a future blog post detailing the scenario they could find themselves in sooner than later. Boswell says they can, and should do the deal, despite the risks b/c he may be a lot more expensive next off-season.

Q: If you were starting an MLB team today, who would you want as your ace? Clayton Kershaw or Stephen Strasburg? Kershaw already has a Cy Young yet is only four months older than Strasburg.

A: I call this the Jason Amos question, my LA Dodger following friend who posed this same question to us earlier this season. Right now, if I had to choose between the two I’d have to go Kershaw. Strasburg could be a question mark for years to come. If Strasburg thorugh finishes a couple of healthy seasons I may change my mind. Strasburg has such a higher level of dominance capability that you’d have to choose that for the longer term, if you were convinced of his health.

A follow up question though; are either Kershaw or Strasburg the best young pitcher in baseball? I say maybe not: Felix Hernandez and Clay Buchholz have both put up pretty good seasons in their pre-arbitration years. Guys like Ian Kennedy, Michael Pineda, David Price also put their names in the mix.

Boswell says Kershaw, saying he’s “done it.” Fair enough.

Q: After Harper’s Arizona Fall League performance, is there any chance he makes the opening day squad if he is the best candidate coming out of spring training?

A: There is a chance, if only because Davey Johnson has made a habit of selecting precocious and talented players and sticking with them. Guys like Doc Gooden and Daryl Strawberry. However, the arithmetic penalty for getting Harper into super-2 status by accident is pretty clear; it could cost the team north of $15M. So, my gut says Harper will be left in Harrisburg to tear up AA for a few weeks, move up to Syracuse and join the team in mid June. If he earns it, of course. Boswell agrees with this assessment, then gives up a nugget; apparently Johnson “called up” most of the 9/1 call ups without really conferring with Rizzo, meaning they had to scramble to do the 40-man moves to make it happen.

Q: I noticed that the Nats added catcher Jhonatan Solano to their 40-man roster. This seems to indicate that they will trade one of their catchers (most likely Derek Norris) in exchange for a centerfielder. My best guess is Norris, LaRoche (assuming the Nats eat most of his contract), and Marrero to the Rays for Upton. What do you think?

A: The Nats added Solano for spare-part cover, nothing more. It indicates nothing about a potential trade, only that they didn’t have another MLB-ready catcher on the 40-man in case Ramos or Flores gets hurt straight away. Norris isn’t ready yet, but is a better prospect than Flores (and possibly than Ramos). I think the trade bait is really Flores.

By the way, that trade offer for Upton is awful. The Rays are most likely non-tendering the guy; why would we give up such a haul for him? GMs know the Rays are hamstrung and will wait them out. Just as the Twins should never have traded Ramos, the Nats will be hard pressed to give up Norris.

Q: Considering the abysmal state of sports in DC (including, right now, the Caps) is it the time for the Nats to take advantage and go big now? Rizzo’s MO is to fly under the radar on free agency and trades so there’s little that’s going to come from the Nats by way of info. Do you think they might be considering going after some of the big names, such as Pujols or Fielder (and trading LaRoche)?

A: Why deviate from the plan now? This team is getting setup for the very long term, generating a ton of rising talent, cost contained, while augmenting where needed with key free agents. LaRoche has zero trade value, so unless you want to waste 1/8th of your payroll you have to use him. I think blowing $200M on either Pujols or Fielder would be shortsighted and would unnecessarily hamstring this franchise going forward. Boswell thinks its a good idea.

Written by Todd Boss

November 24th, 2011 at 1:44 pm

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