I began this post the day after the 2018 draft, when the first “way too early” mock draft came out on MLBpipeline. So its exactly 364 days in the making.
For a preview of the names you see below, see a previous post that talks about all the marquee names with some stats:
2019 Draft coverage; Overview of top Draft prospects
Todd Boss’ Mock draft top-5 prediction?
My top 5 prediction: Rutschman, Witt, Vaughn, Bleday, Greene
Who are the Nats going to take at #17:
So, looking at all of the mock drafts, and listening/reading your typical draft pundits, here’s some information on this year’s draft:
- Its a relatively weak draft compared to recent memory.
- Its very weak on college pitching
- Its thus heavier on college and prep bats, which most pundits are predicting will at be at least the top 6 picks.
Meanwhile … the Nats are generally a team that very heavily focuses on college pitching in drafts, and who generally looks for “famous” names in the 1st who may have dropped slightly due to signability or injury, looking for “value.” This was the case with Mason Denaburg in 2018 (was a top 10 prospect, had biceps issue, dropped), the case with Seth Romero (was a top prospect before getting kicked off his college team in 2017), the case with Jesus Luzardo in 2016 (he had TJ surgery ahead of the draft), definitely the case with Erick Fedde in 2014, etc. So, it should be an interesting draft to follow.
The Nats have the
- #17 pick in the first draft
- lost their 2nd rounder to the Patrick Corbin signing (would have been 57th overall)
- 94th in the 3rd round
- 124th in the 4th round
- 139th in the 4th round comp round (compensation for Bryce Harper)
- Lost their 5th rounder, also for the Corbin signing (they lost 2 picks thanks to screwing up the salary cap in 2018 for the 2nd year running)
- then pick 214th and every 30 picks there after.
The lack of a 2nd rounder really means they have to hit on their 1st this year. So, who do Mock drafters generally have the Nats picking? You generally see draft pundits with the Nats picking one of these names:
- Shea Langeliers, C from Baylor. This fits the Nats M.O. of picking better players who have dropped slightly in the 1st due to injury. Langeliers broke a hamate bone this year, which has hampered his offense and dropped him. This would be a classic Nats 1st round pick.
- Matt Allan, prep RHSP from Florida HS, rated as one of the best (if not the best) prep RHP in the draft. Committed to Florida, apparently has huge bonus demands.
- Josh Jung, 3B from Texas Tech who has been on draft radars for a while.
I’ve also seen some mocks with the Nats taking George Kirby, Kameron Misner, Brett Bady. But i’d bet its one of these three above names.
My prediction: Every mock draft pundit for the last week or so has the Nats taking Allan and spending the money. Its looking more and more that the type of college bat that the Nats would normally take (Langeliers, Jung, Misner) are going to be gone … so i’m betting the Nats stake the entire 2019 draft on Allan.
Here’s the Mock draft collection. I’ve generally listed their top-5 and then who they project the Nats to take at #17 (if they project out that far). this year i’m ordering them Chronologically as rec’d instead of grouping by pundit…. this should let us see kind of an evolution of the top of the draft.
- MLBPipeline (Jonathan Mayo): way-too-early-Mock-Draft June 2018: Witt, Rutschman, Barco, Langeliers, Greene.
- MLBPipeline (Jonathan Mayo): Dec 2018 Mock Draft: Rutschman, Witt, Vaughn, Jung, Stinson.
- Baseball America (Carlos Collazo): Apr 2019 Mock v4.0: Rutschman, Vaughn, Witt, Abrams, Greene. Nats on Shea Langeliers, C from Baylor and #2 C prospect in the draft
- Baseball America (Carlos Collazo): 5/2/19 Mock v5.0: Rutschman, Witt, Vaughn, Greene, Bleday. Nats on Quinn Priester, prep RHP from Cary, IL. Helium arm.
- Fangraphs (Kiley McDaniel): Apr 2019 v1.0: Rutschman, Witt, Vaughn, Abrams, Greene.
- MLBPipeline (Jim Callis): 5/3/19 mock draft: Rutschman, Witt, Abrams, Vaughn, Greene. Nats on George Kirby, rhp from Elon.
- 20/80 baseball (Nick Faleris/Burke Granger); 5/5/2019 Mock draft: Rutchman, Witt, Vaughn, Abrams, Bleday. Nats on Matt Allan, prep RHSP from Florida HS.
- CBSsports (Mike Axisa) Mock Draft 5/6/19: Rutschman, Witt, Bleday, Greene, Abrams. Nats on Kameron Misner, toolsy Missouri OF.
- ESPN (Keith Law) May 2019 v1.0: Rutschman, Witt, Vaughn, Bleday, Greene. Nats on Langeliers, under the theory that he’s a -pick who has dropped due to his hand injury.
- TheBigLead.com (Ryan Phillips) v1.0 May 2019: Rutschman, Witt, Vaughn, Abrams, Bleday. Only projecting top 10.
- Fangraphs (Eric Longenhagen/Kiley McDaniel): v2.0 May 2019 mock: Rutschman, Witt, Abrams, Bleday, Vaughn. Nats on Langeliers.
- TheBigLead.com (Ryan Phillips) v2.0 May 2019: Rutschman, Witt, Vaughn, Abrams, Bleday. No change in top 5 since his previous mock. Nats on Langeliers like everyone else.
- BleacherReport.com (Joel Reuter) May 2019 mock: Rutschman, Witt, Abrams, Vaughn, Greene. Nats on Priester.
- Fangraphs (Kiley McDaniel/Eric Longenhagen): 5/14/19 Mock v2.0: Rutschman, Witt, Abrams, Bleday, Vaughn. Nats on Langeliers.
- MLBPipeline (Jim Callis): 5/17/19 mock draft: Rutschman, Witt, Abrams, Bleday, Vaughn. Nats on Jung.
- MyMLBDraft.com (? pundit): 5/22/19 Mock draft: Rutchman, Witt, Vaughn, Abrahms, Greene. Nats on Allan.
- MLBPipeline (Jonathan Mayo): 5/23/19 Mock draft: Rutschman, Witt, Abrams, Vaughn, Greene. Nats on Josh Jung, 3B from Texas Tech who has been on draft radars for a while.
- PerfectGame.org (Brian Sakowski): Mock Draft v3.0 5/23/19: Rutschman, Witt, Abrahms, Bleday, Vaughn. Nats on Kirby.
- Baseball America (Carlos Collazo): 5/24/19 Mock Draft: Rutschman, Witt, Abrams, Bleday, Vaughn. Nats on Brett Bady, prep 3B from Texas HS.
- ESPN (Keith Law) May 28 2019 v2.0: Rutschman, Witt, Vaughn, Bleday, Greene. Nats on Allan.
- BleacherReport.com (Joel Reuter) May 2019 mock v2.0: Rutschman, Witt, Bleday, Vaughn, Abrams. Nats on Jung.
- Video Baseball Scout (Benjamin Chase): May v8.9 mock draft: Rutschman, Witt, Abrams, Bleday, Vaughn. Nats on Gunnar Henderson, prep SS from Alabama HS.
- The Athletic Staff (beat reporters collectively): May 2019 Mock Draft: Rutchman, Witt, Abrams, Vaughn, Bleday. Nats on Misner.
- Fangraphs (Kiley McDaniel/Eric Longenhagen): 5/29/19 Mock v3.0: Rutschman, Witt, Abrams, Bleday, Vaughn. Nats still on Langeliers.
- The Athletic (Melissa Lockhard) 5/29/19 Mock Draft: Rutchman, Witt, Vaughn, Abrams, Greene. Nats on Allan.
- Baseball America (Carlos Collazo): 5/31/19 Mock Draft v9.0; Rutschman, Witt, Vaughn, Bleday, Greene. Nats on Zack Thompson, LHP from Kentucky with some medical issues.
- Beyond the Box Score (Daniel Epstein): 6/1/19 Aggregate Mock Draft (an analysis/aggregate of other mocks): Rutschman, Witt, Abrams, Vaughn, Bleday. Nats on Allan.
- TheBigLead.com (Ryan Phillips) v3.0 May 2019: Rutschman, Witt, Vaughn, Bleday, Greene. Nats on Allan.
- MLBPipeline (Jonathan Mayo): 6/3/19 day-of Mock: Rutschman, Witt, Vaughn, Bleday, Greene. Nats on Allan.
- ESPN (Keith Law): 6/3/19 day-of final mock: Rutschman, Witt, Vaughn, Bleday, Greene. Nats on Allan; it really seems like Allan is going to be the pick here.
- CBSsports (Mike Axisa) Final Mock Draft 6/3/19: Rutschman, Witt, Abrams, Bleday, Vaughn. Nats on Allan too.
- Fangraphs (Kiley McDaniel/Eric Longenhagen): 6/3/19 Morning of Mock v4.0: Rutschman, Witt, Vaughn, Bleday, Greene. Nats on Allan.
- TheBigLead.com (Ryan Phillips) 6/3/19 last chance mock: Rutschman, Witt, Vaughn, Bleday, Greene. Nats on Allan.
- 20/80 baseball (Nick Faleris); draft day mock 6/3/19: Rutschman, Witt, Vaughn, Bleday, Greene. Nats on Allan.
Mock draft posters from past years who didn’t seem to do one this year.:
- D1Baseball (Frankie Piliere); took a job with Seattle, no longer at d1baseball.
- HeroSports.com (Christopher Crawford); moved to nbcsports/roto world, unclear if still doing draft work.
- MinorleagueBall.com (John Sickels); moved to TheAthletic, site seems dead.
- SI.com (Jay Jaffe), now with Fangraphs, so probably not doing prospect work anymore.
- Baseball America (John Manuel): seems to have passed the torch at BA to Reuter.
- Baseball Draft Report (Rob Ozga); Last post was Sept 2018; out of business?
- Seedlings to the Stars/Calltothepen.com: main writer left to form Video Baseball Scout.
- Prospect Digest (Joseph Werner); just draft profiles for 2019, no mocks/ranks.
- Sporting News: can’t find content.
Draft Rankings: these are prospect ranking lists, NOT mock drafts.
- ESPN (Keith Law): Apr 2019 top 50 Ranks, May 2019 Top 100 Big board
- MLBPipeline (Callis & Mayo): Top 200 draft board for 2019
- BaseballAmerica: 2019 Top 500 Draft Prospect List
- Fangraphs; Fangraphs Draft Board for 2019
- 2080baseball; top 125 players ranked.
Past prospect rankers that have issues this year 2019.
- Baseball Draft Report (Rob Ozga); Last post was Sept 2018; out of business?
- Video Baseball Scout; Mocks, no rankings.
- The Athletic: no content this year.
- MinorLeagueBall.com Draft Prospect list: didn’t do one this year, just individual profiles.
- PerfectGame 2019 Draft Rankings database/top 600 players (mostly behind a paywall)
ACTUAL TOP 5 DRAFT Results (added after the draft): went almost entirely chalk to latest mocks: Rutschman, Witt, Vaughn, Bleday, Greene.
Actual Nats #17 Pick (added after the draft): Jackson Rutledge, RHP from Texas Juco. See separate post on him.