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2019 CWS Super Regional Recaps, CWS Omaha field and performance of Nats draft picks

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Here’s a recap of our CWS coverage so far for 2019:

CWS Super Regionals were played this past weekend.

Super Regional Recaps:  I’ve got these ordered by they way they’ll be playing into the CWS field (i.e. by bracket, with former National seeds 1,8,5,4 in the top and 6,3,7,2 in the bottom).  And this is the order they’re listed on d1baseball’s Tourney Central, the quickest way to find results.

  • #1 UCLA vs Michigan: In the opener, Michigan shocked UCLA to win game 1 3-2.  Nats 8th rounder Jeremy Ydens went 0-3 playing RF and batting 7th.   UCLA scored one late to take game 2 and force the decider (Ydens batted 8th and went 2-3 with a walk).    Michigan proved game 1 was no upset by going and sweeping UCLA to advance to its first CWS since 1984.   A huge upset, not only having the tournament lose the #1 seed (a team that had basically been #1 the entire season), but an upset by a regional 3rd seed.  Nats pick Ydens did his part in the 2nd, going 3-4, batting 6th and playing RF in likely his final collegiate game.
  • #8 Texas Tech vs #9 Oklahoma State; TTU held serve in the opener, winning 8-6.  OSU returned the favor, winning game two 6-5 to force the Sunday decider.  In the final, an amazing back-and-forth game featuring these two very powerful lineups ended up with the host Texas Tech coming out on top to advance.
  • #5 Arkansas vs #12 Ole Miss: Arkansas held serve in the opener winning easily 11-2.  Nats draftee Matt Cronin did not see action, as Arkansas’ starter Isaiah Campbell nearly pitched a CG.  In game 2, Ole Miss reversed the score, trouncing Arkansas 13-5 to force the Monday decider (again, no Cronin appearance).  In the decider, Ole Miss scored in the first…then didn’t score again as Arkansas ran up the score to win 14-1.  Cronin pitched the 9th in the win.
  • Florida State vs #13 LSU; Florida State got to Lynchburg’s Zach Hess in the 8th to seal a come-from-behind victory in game 1.  Nats draftee Todd Peterson went 4 1/3rd middle relief innings, giving up 2 runs on 3 hits.  Nats 3rd rounder Drew Mendoza batted 3rd for FSU and went 0-2 with 3 walks.  In a scintillating Game 2, FSU held off an LSU come-back and Mendoza got a walk-off RBI-single in the 12th to complete the sweep and send Florida State back to the CWS.
  • Auburn vs #14 UNC; Auburn surprised UNC 11-7 in game one, and then UNC blanked Auburn 2-0 in game two to force the Monday decider.  In that decider, Auburn scored 13 runs (!!) in the first inning to end it before it started, eventually winning 13-7 to advance to its first CWS trip since 1997.
  • #6 Mississippi State  vs #11 Stanford; In Game 1, Mississippi State got to Stanford’s starter early and held on for the upset win in game 1.  Game two wasn’t close, and Mississippi State punched a ticket to Omaha.
  • #7 Louisville vs #10 ECU: In Game 1, Louisville got to Jake Agnos in the 4th for 4 runs … so ECU pulled him and the bullpen melted, with Louisville winning 14-1.  It wasn’t any prettier in game 2, with Louisville blanking ECU 12-0 to become the first team to punch their ticket.   A pretty amazing performance, winning two games over a top-10 team like ECU by the combined score of 26-1.
  • #2 Vanderbilt vs Duke: In the opener, Duke got a flabbergasting win, destroying Vanderbilt 18-5.  In game 2, Kumar Rocker, who was one of the top prep arms in the 2018 draft before falling out of the 1st round and heading to Vanderbilt, threw a 131-pitch, 19 strikeout no-hitter to win game 2 and force the decider.  In the final, Vanderbilt ran away with the win 13-2 and advanced to Omaha, where they’re likely the favorite.

My CWS Predictions vs Actuals:

Predicted: #1 UCLA, #8 Texas Tech, #12 Ole Miss, #13 LSU, Auburn, #6 Mississippi State, #7 Louisville, #2 Vanderbilt

Actuals: Michigan, #8 Texas Tech, #5 Arkansas, Florida State, Auburn, #6 Mississippi State, #7 Louisville, #2 Vanderbilt

I got the entire bottom bracket right, including the Auburn upset of host UNC.  Didn’t get much else right.

 

CWS Field and Profiles

Top Bracket: (records through Super-Regionals)

  • Michigan: 46-20, 16-7 Big 10.  2nd place Big-10 reg season, semis of Big-10 tourney, #3 regional seed.
  • #8 Texas Tech: 44-18, 16-8 Big-12.  Regular season champs, semis of Big-12 tourney
  • #5 Arkansas 46-18, 20-10 SEC.  SEC West division regular season co-champ, lost in qtrs of SEC tourney.
  • Florida State: 41-21, 17-13 ACC.  3rd Place, ACC Atlantic Division regular season, eliminated in pool play in tourney.

Bottom Bracket

  • Auburn: 38-26, 14-16 SEC.  6th in SEC West division regular season, eliminated in 2nd round of SEC tourney.
  • #6 Mississippi State: 51-13, 20-10 SEC.  SEC West division regular season co-champ, lost in qtrs of SEC tourney
  • #7 Louisville: 49-16, 21-9 ACC.  ACC Atlantic division regular season champ, eliminated in pool play in tourney.
  • #2 Vanderbilt: SEC East division regular season champ.  SEC tournament champ.

CWS field review by the numbers

  • SEC: 4
  • Pac12: 0
  • ACC: 2
  • Big12: 1
  • Big10: 1
  • National top 8 Seeds: 5
  • Regional Hosts (i.e. top 16 seeds): 6
  • First time programs: none

CWS Field thoughts

Lots of big time baseball programs here: Vanderbilt, Louisville, Florida State.  Half the field is SEC teams, fitting b/c 10 of them made the field of 64.

The field looks bottom heavy, with three National seeds advancing and three SEC teams competing with a tough ACC team.  in Regular season play, Mississippi State beat Auburn 2 of 3 and Auburn got swept by Vanderbilt (in addition to getting pounded 11-1 in the SEC tourney), so i’d guess Auburn is finishing last in this bracket.   Mississippi State and Vandy only played once; a 1-0 win by Vandy en route to their SEC tournament title.   The wildcard seems to be Louisville, who powered up to advance to the CWS but struggled when it had to play quality opponents (losing 2 of 3 versus UConn, Georgia Tech, Clemson, and UVA).  I think the bottom bracket goes Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, Louisville, Auburn.

Meanwhile, the top features a couple of rather stunning upsets, with two regional #3 seeds advancing to the CWS.  Both the remaining seeded teams were stretched to three games in the Super Regional … though to me Texas Tech (despite being the lower seeded team) looked like the superior team.  Interestingly, Arkansas and Texas Tech also made last year’s CWS … and also faced each other in the group stage.  They also get the weakest team in Omaha first (Michigan).  I think the top bracket goes Texas Tech, Arkansas, Florida State and Michigan.

Quick predictions:

Final: Vanderbilt over Texas Tech.

Player Star power in this CWS: By team, here’s the top-end draft talents still playing.

  • Michigan: three picks in the first 3 rounds: two of their starters in Tommy Henry and Karl Kauffmann, plus CF Jordan Brewer in the 3rd.
  • #8 Texas Tech: 1st rounder and 8th overall Josh Jung, who was a monster in the Super Regional is the main draft talent.  TTU had 6 other players drafted in rounds 7 onward.
  • #5 Arkansas has two Comp-B round picks in OF Dominic Fletcher and senior starter Isaiah Campbell, in addition to the Nats 4th rounder Cronin.
  • Florida State: Nats 3rd rounder Mendoza, plus 4th rounder OF/closer J.C. Flowers along with an 8th and 9th rounder.

Bottom Bracket

  • Auburn: 5th rounder SS Will Holland, 7th rounder RHP Davis Daniel, and 3 lower round picks.
  • #6 Mississippi State: 1st rounder (28th overall) Ethan Small, 4th rounder Jake Mangum.
  • #7 Louisville: 5 guys in the top 7 rounds, including 2nd rounder 1B Logan Wyatt.
  • #2 Vanderbilt: no less than 13 drafted players, led by 4th overall pick J.J. Bleday.

 

Nats 2019 Draftees still playing in the CWS:

  • 3rd rounder Drew Mendoza will have his signing delayed a few more weeks; he’s the key slugger for FSU and will keep slugging in Omaha.
  • 4th rounder Matt Cronin got just 1 inning in the Super Regional.

College CWS tournament references:

Written by Todd Boss

June 10th, 2019 at 10:20 pm

Posted in College/CWS

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2019 CWS Regional Results, Super Regional Pairings, Nats picks still playing

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Our CWS coverage for 2019 got a little compressed due to time this year.   We didn’t announce the full field (link to d1baseball’s 64-field announcement), and we’re combining a couple different posts this year upon the completion of Regionals.

Now we’re through the Regionals and the field has been winnowed from 64 to just 16.

 

Regional Recaps

We’ll review the 16 regionals in order of the larger bracket.  Bold is the host/seed and Bolded Red is the winner.

1. UCLA region finish: UCLA, the top seed in the tourney, survived a scare by sweeping Loyola Marymount out of the losers’ bracket to advance.  Seed finish: 1-3-2-4
16. Oregon State region finish: Michigan outlasted Creighton in this upset-filled regional.  Host Oregon State, your defending National champ, was 2-and-out, robbing a national stage for its presumed #1 overall pick Adley Rutschman.  Seed finish: 3-2-4-1

2. Vanderbilt region finish: Vanderbilt cruised to the title in this chalk regional.  Seed finish: chalk 1-2-3-4
15. West Virginia region finish: #3 seed Duke got to WVU’s top pick Alex Manoah in the winner’s bracket game and WVU couldn’t recover.  Seed finish: 3-2-1-4

3. Georgia Tech region finish: Auburn takes two close ones to beat the host and 3rd overall seed.  Seed finish: 2-1-3-4
14. UNC region finish: UNC topped all three teams en route to the title in a “familiar” regional of teams who play frequently.  Seed finish: chalk 1-2-3-4.

4. Georgia region finish: Florida State advances as a #3 regional seed, battering the field by winnings its 3 games 13-7, 12-3, 10-1.  Seed finish: 3-1-2-4.
13. LSU region finish: LSU held serve and advances.  Seed finish: 1-3-2-4

5. Arkansas region finish: Arkansas cruises undefeated to the win.  Last-team-in TCU makes the regional final to prove critics wrong.   Seed finish: 1-3-4-2
12. Ole Miss region finish: Ole Miss fends off the feisty 4th seeded Jacksonville State to advance.   Overseeded Illinois goes 2-and-out.  Seed finish: 1-4-3-2.

6. Mississippi State region finish: Mississippi State takes out Miami, who came out of the loser’s bracket to challenge.  Seed finish chalk 1-2-3-4.
11. Stanford region finish: Stanford  came out of the losers bracket to outlast upstart Fresno State in a monday finish.  Seed finish: 1-3-4-2

7. Louisville region finish: Louisville  came through the loser’s bracket to advance.  This regional marred by a ridiculous “ump show” where the Louisville closer got ejected for saying “that’s horrible” after a close call.  4-game suspension.  For saying two words, basically to himself.  Seed finish: 1-3-2-4.
10. ECU region finish: ECU survived an embarrassing opening loss to minnow Quinnipiac to advance past the surprising Campbell, who helped give ACC power NC State an equally embarrassing 2 and out.  Seed finish: 1-3-4-2

8. Texas Tech region finish: Texas Tech won a straightforward regional, where Dallas Baptist beat Florida twice.  Seed finish: chalk 1-2-3-4.
9. Oklahoma State region finish: Oklahoma State was extended an extra game by UConn but advanced.  Seed fish: chalk 1-2-3-4 but not straight-forward way to get there.

Predictions versus Actuals: no prediction piece this year for the Regionals.

DC/MD/VA team performance at Regionals

Here’s how teams of note either from the DC/MD/VA or with known players who hail from the region performed at Regionals.

  • Coastal Carolina (which has several VA-tied players) finished 3rd in a tough regional.
  • Liberty got a win, then got crushed by eventual regional champ UNC.
  • Tennessee lost the 1st round behind VA based Garrett Stallings on the mound, but rallied to make the regional final.  they also feature 1B 3rd-4th rounder Andre Lipicus, who hails from Williamsburg and got drafted in the 3rd round.
  • UNC Wilmington (which has several VA-tied players) was 2-and-out in the UNC regional.
  • ECU was a top-10 team all year and the #10th seed here.  NoVa product Jake Agnos (4th round pick) pitched a great winner’s bracket game and gets another start in the Super Regional.
  • West Virginia: has a few MD/VA based freshman this  year.
  • Clemson has some VA-based depth that didn’t appear in the regional.

 

Summary of Regionals statistically:

  • 12 of 16  hosts advanced.  A very chalk-y CWS so far.  Falling Seeds/Hosts: #3 Georgia Tech, #4 Georgia, #16 Oregon State, #15 West Virginia, 
  • 2 of the 8 national seeds fell: Georgia and Georgia Tech.
  • 2 of the 9-16 seeds fell: WVU and OSU.
  • 12 number one seeds, 1 number two seeds, 3 number three seeds, and 0 number four seeds advance to the super regionals.  
  • 5 number of #4 seeds who didn’t finish 4th in their regional; Cincinnati, Central Connecticut, Jacksonville State, Sacramento State. Quinnipiac.
  • 2: number of #4 seeds to get opening wins.  Cincinnati beat Oregon State, Quinnipaic beat ECU.
  • Most surprising regional winner: Michigan.
  • # of “extended” regionals: 5.

Conference Breakdowns of the teams in the Super Regionals:

  • SEC: Arkansas, Ole Miss, LSU, Auburn, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt
  • ACC: FSU, UNC, Louisville, Duke
  • Big12: Texas Tech, Oklahoma State
  • Pac12: UCLA, Stanford
  • Big 10: Michigan
  • Others: ECU (AAC)

Very top heavy; SEC gets 6 of the 16 super regionalists and has a good shot of sending 5 teams to Omaha.

Super Regional Matchups:  the higher ranked team is the host unless otherwise noted (official hosts and start times here)

  • #1 UCLA vs Michigan
  • #8 Texas Tech vs #9 Oklahoma State
  • #5 Arkansas vs #12 Ole Miss
  • Florida State vs #13 LSU
  • Auburn vs #14 UNC
  • #6 Mississippi State  vs #11 Stanford
  • #7 Louisville vs #10 ECU
  • #2 Vanderbilt vs Duke:

Super Regional Thoughts/Predictions

  • #1 UCLA vs Michigan: Michigan advanced by beating a top 25  team in Creighton … but should be no match for UCLA.
  • #8 Texas Tech vs #9 Oklahoma State: a Big12 showdown; they met in late april, a 3-game sweep at Texas Tech, where this will be hosted.  I see a similar beat down this weekend.
  • #5 Arkansas vs #12 Ole Miss: SEC showdown: despite the seeding and despite home field advantage, Ole Miss took 2 of 3 in Arkansas at the end of March.  The two teams then split games at the SEC tourney, with Ole Miss eliminating the Razorbacks.  I like Ole Miss’ chances here.
  • Florida State vs #13 LSU; a great match-up of traditional college baseball powers.  LSU should advance, especially as the host seed even given Florida State’s pedigree.
  • Auburn vs #14 UNC: I like Auburn here, who just beat a better ACC team than UNC to advance, despite UNC getting surprise super regional hosting duties.
  • #6 Mississippi State  vs #11 Stanford: While I like the Pac12 baseball this year, and at one point Stanford was much higher ranked, I don’t think they can hang with SEC royalty like Mississippi State.
  • #7 Louisville vs #10 ECU: I don’t think ECU can hang with Louisville, especially after struggling with a relatively weak regional.
  • #2 Vanderbilt vs Duke:  a brain-y match-up of two great academic schools that have good baseball pedigree.  But Vanderbilt should trounce Duke here as one of the best teams in the country.

Predictions: #1 UCLA, #8 Texas Tech, #12 Ole Miss, #13 LSU, Auburn, #6 Mississippi State, #7 Louisville and #2 Vanderbilt

Super Regional Star Power

Lots of top-end draft picks will be playing this weekend, just ahead of the MLB draft which starts on 6/12/17.  (note: I wrote most of the below before the draft and have not updated it with exact picks)  By Super Regional:

  • #1 UCLA vs Michigan; 1st rounder Michael Toglia and 2nd rounder Chase Strumpf pace UCLA’s offense.   Two Michigan starters (Tommy Henry and Karl Kauffmann) were comp-b picks.
  • #8 Texas Tech vs #9 Oklahoma State: Mid-1st rounder Josh Jung is TTU’s 3B, and likely 3rd rounder Gabe  Holt is on OF/2B.
  • #5 Arkansas vs #12 Ole Miss: Arkansas’ #1 starter is Isaiah Campbell, likely a 2nd rounder.  Matt Cronin is a LHP likely 3rd rounder, OF Dominic Fletcher likely a 4th rounder.   Ole Miss’ catcher duo of Thomas Diller and Cooper Johnson both project as 3rd rounders.
  • Florida State vs #13 LSU:  FSU’s Drew Mendoza was the Nats 3rd round pick..  LSU has three guys projecting in the late 2nd/3rd round: SS Josh Smith, RHP Zach Hess (who hails from Lynchburg VA), and OF Zach Watson.
  • Auburn vs #14 UNC: UNC’s 1st baseman Michael Busch is a likely back-of-the-1st rounder.  UNC stater Tyler Baum projects as a 3rd rounder. Auburn SS Will Holland projects as a late 2nd rounder.  Auburn RHP David Daniel likely a 5th-6th rounder.
  • #6 Mississippi State vs #11 Stanford: Mississippi State’s rotation is led by Ethan Small, a LHP likely going in the 2nd round.  Stanford’s CF Kyle Stower was a 2nd round Baltimore pick.
  • #7 Louisville vs #10 ECU: Louisville’s top bat is 1b Logan Wyatt went early in the 2nd   ECU has several players projected to go in rounds 3-5, including local product Zach Agnos.
  • #2 Vanderbilt vs Duke: Vanderbilt’s J.J. Bleday is projecting as a top-5 pick and is probably the highest-ranked collegiate player whose team advanced to the super regionals.  Vandy has a couple other guys projecting as 5th/6th rounders: Drake Fellows RHP and C Philip Clarke.  Duke’s LHP Graeme Stinson projects as a 3rd rounder.

Nats 2019 Draft Picks in the Super Regionals

  • 3rd rounder Drew Mendoza from FSU
  • 4th rounder Matt Cronin is in Arkansas’ bullpenn.
  • 7th Rounder Todd Peterson is in LSU’s bullpen as a setup/closer.
  • 8th Rounder Jeremy Ydens is starting in #1 UCLA’s outfield after missing most of the season with injury.

 

CWS Predictions:

Early CWS final prediction:  I like #1 vs #2: UCLA vs Vanderbilt right now, with Vandy coming out on top.

College CWS tournament references:

Written by Todd Boss

June 7th, 2019 at 12:02 pm

Posted in College/CWS

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2019 Draft coverage; Mock Draft mania plus my projected top-5 and Nats picks

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mlbdraft2019

I began this post the day after the 2018 draft, when the first “way too early” mock draft came out on MLBpipeline.  So its exactly 364 days in the making.

For a preview of the names you see below, see a previous post that talks about all the marquee names with some stats:

2019 Draft coverage; Overview of top Draft prospects

 

Todd Boss’ Mock draft top-5 prediction?

My top 5 prediction: Rutschman, Witt, Vaughn, Bleday, Greene

Who are the Nats going to take at #17:

So, looking at all of the mock drafts, and listening/reading your typical draft pundits, here’s some information on this year’s draft:

  • Its a relatively weak draft compared to recent memory.
  • Its very weak on college pitching
  • Its thus heavier on college and prep bats, which most pundits are predicting will at be at least the top 6 picks.

Meanwhile … the Nats are generally a team that very heavily focuses on college pitching in drafts, and who generally looks for “famous” names in the 1st who may have dropped slightly due to signability or injury, looking for “value.”  This was the case with Mason Denaburg in 2018 (was a top 10 prospect, had biceps issue, dropped), the case with Seth Romero (was a top prospect before getting kicked off his college team in 2017),  the case with Jesus Luzardo in 2016 (he had TJ surgery ahead of the draft), definitely the case with Erick Fedde in 2014, etc.  So, it should be an interesting draft to follow.

The Nats have the

  • #17 pick in the first draft
  • lost their 2nd rounder to the Patrick Corbin signing (would have been 57th overall)
  • 94th in the 3rd round
  • 124th in the 4th round
  • 139th in the 4th round comp round (compensation for Bryce Harper)
  • Lost their 5th rounder, also for the Corbin signing (they lost 2 picks thanks to screwing up the salary cap in 2018 for the 2nd year running)
  • then pick 214th and every 30 picks there after.

The lack of a 2nd rounder really means they have to hit on their 1st this year.  So, who do Mock drafters generally have the Nats picking?  You generally see draft pundits with the Nats picking one of these names:

  • Shea Langeliers, C from Baylor.  This fits the Nats M.O. of picking better players who have dropped slightly in the 1st due to injury.  Langeliers broke a hamate bone this year, which has hampered his offense and dropped him.  This would be a classic Nats 1st round pick.
  • Matt Allan, prep RHSP from Florida HS, rated as one of the best (if not the best) prep RHP in the draft.  Committed to Florida, apparently has huge bonus demands.
  • Josh Jung, 3B from Texas Tech who has been on draft radars for a while.

I’ve also seen some mocks with the Nats taking George Kirby, Kameron Misner, Brett Bady.  But i’d bet its one of these three above names.

My prediction: Every mock draft pundit for the last week or so has the Nats taking Allan and spending the money.  Its looking more and more that the type of college bat that the Nats would normally take (Langeliers, Jung, Misner) are going to be gone … so i’m betting the Nats stake the entire 2019 draft on Allan.

 

Here’s the Mock draft collection.  I’ve generally listed their top-5 and then who they project the Nats to take at #17 (if they project out that far).  this year i’m ordering them Chronologically as rec’d instead of grouping by pundit…. this should let us see kind of an evolution of the top of the draft.

  • MLBPipeline (Jonathan Mayo): way-too-early-Mock-Draft June 2018: Witt, Rutschman, Barco, Langeliers, Greene.
  • MLBPipeline (Jonathan Mayo): Dec 2018 Mock Draft: Rutschman, Witt, Vaughn, Jung, Stinson.
  • Baseball America (Carlos Collazo): Apr 2019 Mock v4.0: Rutschman, Vaughn, Witt, Abrams, Greene.  Nats on Shea Langeliers, C from Baylor and #2 C prospect in the draft
  • Baseball America (Carlos Collazo): 5/2/19 Mock v5.0: Rutschman, Witt, Vaughn,  Greene, Bleday.  Nats on Quinn Priester, prep RHP from Cary, IL.  Helium arm.
  • Fangraphs (Kiley McDaniel): Apr 2019 v1.0: Rutschman, Witt, Vaughn, Abrams, Greene.
  • MLBPipeline (Jim Callis): 5/3/19 mock draft: Rutschman, Witt, Abrams, Vaughn, Greene.  Nats on George Kirby, rhp from Elon.
  • 20/80 baseball (Nick Faleris/Burke Granger); 5/5/2019 Mock draft: Rutchman, Witt, Vaughn, Abrams, Bleday.  Nats on Matt Allan, prep RHSP from Florida HS.
  • CBSsports (Mike Axisa) Mock Draft 5/6/19: Rutschman, Witt, Bleday, Greene, Abrams.  Nats on Kameron Misner, toolsy Missouri OF.
  • ESPN (Keith Law) May 2019 v1.0:  Rutschman, Witt, Vaughn, Bleday, Greene.  Nats on Langeliers, under the theory that he’s a -pick who has dropped due to his hand injury.
  • TheBigLead.com (Ryan Phillips) v1.0 May 2019: Rutschman, Witt, Vaughn, Abrams, Bleday.  Only projecting top 10.
  • Fangraphs (Eric Longenhagen/Kiley McDaniel): v2.0 May 2019 mock: Rutschman, Witt, Abrams, Bleday, Vaughn.  Nats on Langeliers.
  • TheBigLead.com (Ryan Phillips) v2.0 May 2019: Rutschman, Witt, Vaughn, Abrams, Bleday.   No change in top 5 since his previous mock.   Nats on Langeliers like everyone else.
  • BleacherReport.com (Joel Reuter) May 2019 mock: Rutschman, Witt, Abrams, Vaughn, Greene.  Nats on Priester.
  • Fangraphs (Kiley McDaniel/Eric Longenhagen): 5/14/19 Mock v2.0: Rutschman, Witt, Abrams, Bleday, Vaughn.  Nats on Langeliers.
  • MLBPipeline (Jim Callis): 5/17/19 mock draft: Rutschman, Witt, Abrams, Bleday, Vaughn.  Nats on Jung.
  • MyMLBDraft.com (? pundit): 5/22/19 Mock draft: Rutchman, Witt, Vaughn, Abrahms, Greene.  Nats on Allan.
  • MLBPipeline (Jonathan Mayo): 5/23/19 Mock draft: Rutschman, Witt, Abrams, Vaughn, Greene.  Nats on Josh Jung, 3B from Texas Tech who has been on draft radars for a while.
  • PerfectGame.org (Brian Sakowski): Mock Draft v3.0 5/23/19: Rutschman, Witt, Abrahms, Bleday, Vaughn.  Nats on Kirby.
  • Baseball America (Carlos Collazo): 5/24/19 Mock Draft: Rutschman, Witt, Abrams, Bleday, Vaughn.  Nats on Brett Bady, prep 3B from Texas HS.
  • ESPN (Keith Law) May 28 2019 v2.0: Rutschman, Witt, Vaughn, Bleday, Greene.  Nats on Allan.
  • BleacherReport.com (Joel Reuter) May 2019 mock v2.0: Rutschman, Witt, Bleday, Vaughn, Abrams.  Nats on Jung.
  • Video Baseball Scout (Benjamin Chase): May v8.9 mock draft: Rutschman, Witt, Abrams, Bleday, Vaughn.  Nats on Gunnar Henderson, prep SS from Alabama HS.
  • The Athletic Staff (beat reporters collectively): May 2019 Mock Draft: Rutchman, Witt, Abrams, Vaughn, Bleday.  Nats on Misner.
  • Fangraphs (Kiley McDaniel/Eric Longenhagen): 5/29/19 Mock v3.0: Rutschman, Witt, Abrams, Bleday, Vaughn.  Nats still on Langeliers.
  • The Athletic (Melissa Lockhard) 5/29/19 Mock Draft: Rutchman, Witt, Vaughn, Abrams, Greene.  Nats on Allan.
  • Baseball America (Carlos Collazo): 5/31/19 Mock Draft v9.0; Rutschman, Witt, Vaughn, Bleday, Greene.  Nats on Zack Thompson, LHP from Kentucky with some medical issues.
  • Beyond the Box Score (Daniel Epstein): 6/1/19 Aggregate Mock Draft (an analysis/aggregate of other mocks): Rutschman, Witt, Abrams, Vaughn, Bleday.  Nats on Allan.
  • TheBigLead.com (Ryan Phillips) v3.0 May 2019: Rutschman, Witt, Vaughn, Bleday, Greene.  Nats on Allan.
  • MLBPipeline (Jonathan Mayo): 6/3/19 day-of Mock: Rutschman, Witt, Vaughn, Bleday, Greene.  Nats on Allan.
  • ESPN (Keith Law): 6/3/19 day-of final mock: Rutschman, Witt, Vaughn, Bleday, Greene.  Nats on Allan; it really seems like Allan is going to be the pick here.
  • CBSsports (Mike Axisa) Final Mock Draft 6/3/19: Rutschman, Witt, Abrams, Bleday, Vaughn.  Nats on Allan too.
  • Fangraphs (Kiley McDaniel/Eric Longenhagen): 6/3/19 Morning of Mock v4.0: Rutschman, Witt, Vaughn, Bleday, Greene.  Nats on Allan.
  • TheBigLead.com (Ryan Phillips) 6/3/19 last chance mock: Rutschman, Witt, Vaughn, Bleday, Greene.  Nats on Allan.
  • 20/80 baseball (Nick Faleris); draft day mock 6/3/19: Rutschman, Witt, Vaughn, Bleday, Greene.  Nats on Allan.

 

Mock draft posters from past years who didn’t seem to do one this year.:

  • D1Baseball (Frankie Piliere); took a job with Seattle, no longer at d1baseball.
  • HeroSports.com (Christopher Crawford); moved to nbcsports/roto world, unclear if still doing draft work.
  • MinorleagueBall.com (John Sickels); moved to TheAthletic, site seems dead.
  • SI.com (Jay Jaffe), now with Fangraphs, so probably not doing prospect work anymore.
  • Baseball America (John Manuel): seems to have passed the torch at BA to Reuter.
  • Baseball Draft Report (Rob Ozga); Last post was Sept 2018; out of business?
  • Seedlings to the Stars/Calltothepen.com: main writer left to form Video Baseball Scout.
  • Prospect Digest (Joseph Werner); just draft profiles for 2019, no mocks/ranks.
  • Sporting News: can’t find content.

 

Draft Rankings: these are prospect ranking lists, NOT mock drafts.

Past prospect rankers that have issues this year 2019.

  • Baseball Draft Report (Rob Ozga); Last post was Sept 2018; out of business?
  • Video Baseball Scout; Mocks, no rankings.
  • The Athletic: no content this year.
  • MinorLeagueBall.com Draft Prospect list: didn’t do one this year, just individual profiles.
  • PerfectGame 2019 Draft Rankings database/top 600 players (mostly behind a paywall)

 

ACTUAL TOP 5 DRAFT Results (added after the draft): went almost entirely chalk to latest mocks: Rutschman, Witt, Vaughn, Bleday, Greene.

Actual Nats #17 Pick (added after the draft): Jackson Rutledge, RHP from Texas Juco.  See separate post on him.

 

 

 

Written by Todd Boss

June 3rd, 2019 at 9:12 am

Posted in Draft

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2019 Draft coverage; Overview of top Draft prospects

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Rutschman is the clear 1-1 favorite. Photo via oregonlive.com

Rutschman is the clear 1-1 favorite. Photo via oregonlive.com

This is a review of the marquee names that have been in discussion for the top-end of the 1st round for the 2019 draft.  Since (especially high schoolers) guys constantly are moving up or down draft boards, each section is divided into two areas: those 4-5 names really in talks to go 1-1 overall (“1-1” means 1st round, 1st overall) and then those who have fallen to “just” being 1st or 2nd rounders.

By now, the top of the draft seems settled, but this post contains a slew of names that were once talked about as “top of the draft” talents but who have slipped.  Most of these names are back part of the 1st round/2nd rounders now, with some dropping to the point that they’ll honor college commitments and thus be 35th-40th rounders instead.

We’ll follow this up with a mock draft collection tomorrow; this is a good reference point for the names you’re going to hear day-1 of the draft.

 

College Upper 1st round names in the mix for 1-1

  • Adley Rutschman, C, Oregon State.  Switch-hitting Middle of the Order bat for the 2018 team, powered them to the CWS.  2nd team AA PG/Rawlings 2018 (behind Joey Bart).  1st team d1baseball AA 2018.  2018 USA Collegiate National Team.  Clear consensus 1-1 heading into 2019 spring season, and has stayed there, being almost guaranteed to go 1-1.
  • Andrew Vaughn, 1B California.  1st Team AA PG/Rawlings 2018.  1st team d1baseball AA 2018.  2018 USA Collegiate National Team, 2018 Golden spikes winner as a Sophomore.  Best  hitter in class.  Seems guaranteed to go in the 2-4 range.
  • Nick Lodolo, LHP, Texas Christian.  Supplemental 1st rounder in 2016 out of HS, 2017 freshman AA 1st or 2nd team.  3 year starter for TCU.  Mid-90s FB from left hand side.  #1 college arm, seems likely to go in the 6-8 range.
  • Alek Manoah, RHP West Virginia.  Huge 2018 Cape season vaulted into 1st round territory, huge guy with big arm.  Now #2 college arm in draft, perhaps #1 b/c of durability.  Likely going in the 6-8 range.
  • JJ Bleday, OF, Vanderbilt.  Solid 2018 in Cape, rising star, corner OF.  Leading power hitter in d1baseball, has pushed his way into the top 5 discussion.

College Candidates who have fallen out of  1-1 contention

  • Jackson Rutledge, RHP San Jacinto JC.  Xfer out of 4-yr program (Arkansas) to become 2019 draft eligible.  Hits 97 from deceptive slot, could be sneaky 1st rounder, now mentioned as a top 10 pick.
  • Josh Jung, 3B Texas Tech.  3rd team AA PG/Rawlings 2018 as sophomore.   2nd team d1baseball AA 2018.  2018 USA Collegiate National Team, nearly hit .400 sophomore year, can also play OF.
  • Bryson Stott, SS UNLV.  2018 USA Collegiate National Team, staying at SS.
  • Zack Thompson, LHP, Kentucky; 2017 freshman All-American (2nd team d1baseball fresh AA in 2017).  Some elbow injury issues, but pitched well for team USA in 2018.
  • Hunter Bishop, OF Arizona State: helium 2019 guy, found power.
  • Michael Busch, 1B UNC.
  • Kameron Misner, OF, Missouri.  injured in 2018, true CF.
  • Graeme Stinson, LHP Duke.  big lefty, can be dominant, could be fast riser.
  • Shea Langeliers, C, Baylor.  2018 USA Collegiate National Team, performed well.  Still looks like top-10 pick b/c of position, but broke Hamate bone spr19.  Lots of pundits have him pegged as the Nats #1 pick.
  • Will Holland, SS Auburn.
  • Matt Wallner, OF, Southern Miss.  2018 USA Collegiate National Team.   Also pitches for Southern Miss; is their closer with upper 90s FB.
  • Logan Davidson, SS Clemson.  Combo of power and defensive ability to stick at SS.
  • Andrew Pallante, RHP for UC-Irvine.  2nd team AA PG/Rawlings 2018 as a sophomore.  2018 USA Collegiate National Team
  • Bryant Packard, OF ECU.  1st Team AA PG/Rawlings 2018.  2nd team d1baseball AA 2018.
  • Kyle Brnovich, RHP Elon.  1st Team AA PG/Rawlings 2018.  2nd team d1baseball AA 2018.  2018 USA Collegiate National Team.
  • Jack Little, RHP (closer) from Stanford.   1st Team AA PG/Rawlings 2018.  1st team d1baseball AA 2018.
  • Chase Strumpf, 2B UCLA.   2nd team AA PG/Rawlings 2018 (behind Kody Clemens).  2nd team d1baseball AA 2018.
  • Sean Mooney, RHP St. Johns.  3rd team AA PG/Rawlings 2018 as sophomore.
  • Grant Little, OF Texas Tech.   3rd team AA PG/Rawlings 2018 as sophomore.   2nd team d1baseball AA 2018.
  • Parker Caracci, RHP Ole Miss.  2nd team d1baseball AA 2018.
  • Zack Hess, RHP LSU via LCA in Lynchburg VA.  2018 USA Collegiate National Team, but really struggling as a starter, may be pushed down several rounds.
  • Mike Toglia, OF UCLA.
  • Carter Stewart, RHP Fla JuCo.  9th overall pick out of HS in 2018 enrolled in Juco, but stuff has faltered, costing him draft position in 2019.   Recently signed a pro contract in Japan, and no longer eligible in the draft.

High School Upper 1st round names in the mix for 1-1

  • Bobby Witt Jr., SS, Colleyville (Texas) Heritage HS.  PG underclassman All-American as both soph and jr.   3rd Team USA today HS AA as a junior in 2018.  Son of Bobby Witt.  Oklahoma commit.  East Cobb Sox summer team.  At TOS 2018.  1st team Max Preps all-american in 2018 as a junior.  Likely going 2nd overall.
  • C.J. Abrams, SS, Blessed Trinity HS (Alpharetta, Ga.) .  PG underclassman All-American as both soph and jr.  Alabama commit.  At TOS 2018.  Likely going in the 4-6 range.
  • Matthew Allan, RHP Seminole HS (Fla).  Evoshield Canes national team, PG underclassman AA all three years eligible.  Florida commit.  93-97 spring 19, rising up.  Top prep arm in draft?   Huge bonus demands may cause him to drop.
  • Riley Greene, OF, Hagerty HS (Oviedo, Fla.).  PG underclassman All-American as both soph and jr.  3rd Team USA today HS AA as a junior in 2018.   Florida commit.  At TOS 2018.  Best HS hitter in class?

High School guys in the 1st couple rounds:

  • Quinn Priester, RHP, Cary, Ill.  HS.  TCU commit.  91-93 on the mound.
  • Brett Baty, Inf from Lake Austin HS (Tex.).  Gatorade Texas state POTY as a junior in 2018, 1st team Max Preps all-american in 2018 as a junior.
  • Corbin Carroll, OF, Lakeside School (Seattle).  Helium guy summer 2018, smaller guy.  Canes summer team, UCLA commit.  Athletic guy, may be interesting argument.
  • Brennan Malone, RHP Matthews (NC) HS.   PG underclassman All-American as both soph and jr.  Up to 95 as 17yr old.  UNC commit.  At TOS 2018, hitting 97 now.
  • Rece Hinds, SS/3B, Niceville (Fla.) HS.  PG underclassman All-American as both soph and jr.   2nd Team USA today HS AA as a junior in 2018.  LSU commit.  Big power guy.
  • Daniel Espino, RHP, Georgia Premier Academy (Statesboro, Ga.).  Helium guy summer 2018, up to 99 at events.  LSU commit.  Possible mechanics issues.
  • Jack Leiter, RHP NJ HS.  Son of Al Leiter, Vanderbilt commit, may be 4th best prep arm but will cost $$ to buy him out of Vanderbilt commitment.
  • Matthew Thompson, RHP Cyprus Ranch (Tex) HS.  PG underclassman All-American as both soph and jr.  TAMU commit.  Evoshield Canes National summer team.  At TOS 2018.
  • JJ Goss, RHP Cypress Ranch HS (Houston, TX).  Rising fast.
  • Hunter Barco, LHP, The Bolles School (Jacksonville, Fla.).  PG underclassman All-American as both soph and jr.  UVA verbal commit.  East Cobb Astros summer team.  At TOS 2018.  polarizing prospect, some love him, some hat him.
  • Jerrian Ealy, OF Jackson Prep (Miss.) HS.  3rd Team USA today HS AA as a junior in 2018.   Ole Miss commit.  At TOS 2018.  2-way star, playing both Football and Baseball at Ole Miss.
  • Wesley Scott, RHP Woodcrest Christian (Cal.) HS.  Vanderbilt commit.  95 as a junior.
  • Sam Hliboki, RHP from Harvard-Westlake HS (Cal.).  2nd team Max Preps all-american in 2018 as a junior.
  • Logan Britt, OF All Saints Episcopal High School (Tex.)  TAMU commit.
  • Connor Phillips RHP Magnolia West High School (Tex).  LSU commit.
  • Matt McCormick, C St. Laurence (Burbank, Ill.).  3rd Team USA today HS AA as a junior in 2018.   West Virginia commit.  2nd team Max Preps all-american in 2018 as a junior
  • Joseph Charles, RHP The First Academy (Fla.) HS.  UNC Commit.  94 as a junior.
  • Nolan Hudi, LHP Calvary Christian (Clearwater, Fla.).  1st Team USA today HS AA as a junior in 2018.  TCU commit.
  • Geoffrey Gilbert, LHP Bishop England (Charleston, S.C.).  3rd Team USA today HS AA as a junior in 2018.   Clemson commit.
  • Carter Young, SS/2B Selah, Was.  At TOS 2018.
  • Jonathan French, C Parkview GA.  At TOS 2018.
  • GlenAllen  Hill Jr., OF Santa Cruz, Calif.  At TOS 2018.
  • Sam Ireland, SS from Mountain Vista HS (Col.).  State POTY for several publications in 2018 as a junior, 2nd team Max Preps AA.

 

 

Sources used to create this list

Written by Todd Boss

May 30th, 2019 at 2:55 pm

Posted in Draft

Tagged with , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,