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Auburn/Short-A Pitching Staff Year in Review; 2013

Jake Johansen was the star of Auburn’s pitching staff this year. Photo via DBU website

This is the 6th in the 2013 Pitching staff review series, here’s a review of Auburn/Short-A’s pitching staff for 2013. I’m posting Auburn and GCL today to finish off the series this week. Other parts of the 2013 series:

For some historical perspective, here’s 2012’s version (Brett Mooneyham was the feature pitcher) and 2011’s version (Nathan Karns the feature pitcher) of this post specifically for Auburn/Short-A.

All stats are courtesy of either milb.com’s Auburn’s 2013 Stats page or via Fangraph’s Auburn 2013 page. Also useful here are the Big Board and the Nats Draft Tracker since so many of these lower-minors guys are recent draftees.

A caveat before starting this post (and we’ll say this same thing in the GCL post): this is short-season ball, so nobody’s got more than a few dozen innings. The staff leader had 56 innings. So yes this is absolutely going to be some “Small Sample Size” analysis. Which in some cases is unfair to the player (to the good or to the bad). It is what it is.

Auburn starters. The rotation started the season with Turnbull, Johansen, Selsor, Orlan and DWilliams. Those 5 opening day rotation members were acquired by the team as follows: 2011 Draft, 2013 draft, 2012 draft, 2012 draft and 2011 draft. I mention this because a common thought process is that Short-A spots are “saved” for college draftess in the current year, but this year only one current-year draftee started in the Short-A rotation (and it was our #1 pick). The Auburn rotation ended with Barrientos, Giolito, Selsor (sort of), Orlan, Simms and Ullmann. As with the rest of the system, Auburn graduated a ton of hurlers throughout the season. Lets take a look at the starters:

Kylin Turnbull faced two demotions to end up as Auburn’s opening day starter, not a great start to his 2nd pro season. He posted a 1.96 ERA in his first four Short-A starts and returned to Hagerstown. See Low-A write-up for more. Outlook for next season: High-A’s rotation competition but likely slipping to bullpen.
Jake Johansen was the Nats first 2013 pick, a big tall righty from a small Texas school with a 99 mph fastball. He did not disappoint in pro ball, posting a 1.92 ERA with 51/23 K/BB in 51 2/3 innings between Auburn and Hagerstown. After signing quickly for slot (very quickly, like in 24 hours or so), Johansen joined short-A Auburn and was essentially unhittable through 10 starts. He was promoted up to low-A, got hit around in two starts and finishes the season with a 1.92 ERA, and a sub 1.00 WHIP. Johansen is walking too many batters, but still flashes a dominant fastball. Scouts continue to believe he’ll end up in the bullpen (a lazy narrative assigned by default to any player over 6’5″ with a significant fastball .. with the constant “big guys cannot repeat their mechanics” excuse. Nobody talks about how LeBron James can’t “repeat his mechanics” as he dominates the NBA and he’s 6’8″ playing the point … just a slight tangent on my irritation with broad-stroke scouting narratives), but until that situation presents itself Johansen will stay as a starter. Outlook for next season: Low-A’s rotation, looking for a push to Potomac mid-season.
Casey Selsor was 0-6, 4.29 ERA with 30/14 in 42 1/3 innings, 56 hits for Auburn. He started the season in Auburn’s rotation, got demoted to the bullpen after 6 starts, but eventually made his way back into the rotation in some sense by the time the season was over. He gave up a ton of baserunners, but his BABIP was high. Despite a 4.29 ERA his FIP for the year was just 3.15. So he pitched better than his stats look. Outlook for next season: Low-A bullpen as a swingman.
Robert Orlan was 1-5, 3.65 ERA with 47/22 K/BB in 56 2/3 innings, 54 hits for Auburn. Orlan was the leading innings-eater for Auburn in 2013 after missing the whole 2012 season following TJ surgery. Orlan kept the ball down, pitched better than his ERA shows (3.38 fip) and shows no reason not to continue up the chain and compete for rotation jobs in full season ball next year. Outlook for next season: Low-A rotation.
Deion Williams has now fully transitioned to the mound after being a hitter in 2011. But the jury is out as to whether he can stick; in 8 Auburn starts he got shelled, going 0-6 with a 9+ ERA and was dumped back to the rookie league. He’s young (just turned 21) so he has a bit of time to sort things out. Outlook for next season: XST and another shot at Short-A in the bullpen.
Joel Barrientos tried to make the jump from rookie ball to short-season and got hammered: in 11 appearances (8 starts) he was 1-5 with a 7.08 ERA, getting demoted to the bullpen later in the season. The DSL grad just turned 19, so patience is expected with his progression. He did well enough in the GCL in 2012; he needs to make the leap to the next level. Outlook for next season: XST and another shot at Short-A rotation.
Austin Voth was clearly started too low for his draft pedigree (Pac-12 College Junior) and it showed, as he went 3-0, 1.75 ERA with 55/6 K/BB in46 1/3 innings between three levels. He pushed his way through two promotions on the season, ending up in the Hagerstown rotation. Two key stats on Voth to keep in mind: he had more than a 9/1 K/BB ratio on the season and he gave up zero home-runs in his 55 innings on the year. And these stats were done with pretty normal looking BABIPs; his FIP values were lower than his ERAs in short- and low-A. I like this guy and I think he could be a find. He finished 2nd in the Pac-12 to Mark Appel in strikeouts last year after all. Outlook for next season: Low-A rotation and also looking for a mid-season bump to Potomac.
Ryan Ullmann began the season in the rookie league, being a senior coming from a Division III school, but by season’s end he was in the Auburn rotation. He got 6 starts in Auburn with some up and down results (3 decent, one ok, two bad) that resulted in a 5.30 ERA all told. You can’t teach size (he’s 6’6″, 230). Ullmann closed in college and may return to the pen, despite his K/9 not being strong. Outlook for next season: Low-A bullpen, maybe Short-A again.
Nick Pivetta sported a 1-1, 3.41 ERA with 18/12 K/BB in 29 innings between GCL and Short-A. Pivetta started 5 games for Auburn but averaged less than 4 innings a start. For such a big guy (6’5″ 220) with such a reported fastball (upper 90s in short spurts) I would have hoped for more K’s (18 in 29 innings). Outlook for next season: Low-A bullpen, possibly as a closer so he can maintain higher velocity in shorter outings.
Lucas Giolito, as any Nats fan knows, returned from TJ surgery and pitched in both the GCL and for Auburn. In three Short-A starts he gave up just 9 hits and one run. See GCL’s post for more. Outlook for next season: Low-A rotation.
Other’s who got 1-2 starts here or there:
- Blake Treinen got two rehab starts. See the AA-post for more.
- John Simms got two spot starts at the end of the season; see the reliever section.
- Chris Young got a rehab start; see the AAA post for more.
- Reynaldo Lopez gave up 7 runs in an inning and a third, got demoted to the GCL and he didn’t throw another inning all year. Odd. Outlook for next season: GCL bullpen.

Auburn Relievers: We’ll go by the assumed closers then by IP.

Leonard Hollins had 6 saves and a 2.91 ERA with 36/16 in 46 1/3 innings, 48 hits mostly for Auburn. The submariner made a successful jump to short-A out of the GCL, and still has not given up a professional home-run. All we have to do now is figure out if he’s “Leonard” or if he’s “L.J.” since milb.com and Fangraphs differ in their names for him. Outlook for next season: Low-A bullpen.
David Napoli went 1-0, 1.14 ERA with 28/10 K/BB in23 relief innings in Auburn, 16 hits. He had a very wild reputation coming out of college, but seems to have toned it down at Auburn to become an excellent relief pitcher. I’m a little disappointed to see him already get converted to relief, but his size and stuff seems to point towards situational lefty anyway. I’m also very excited in particular to see Napoli succeed; he was a clear “draft punt” pick, a college senior taken between the 6th and 10th rounds and given a miniscule signing bonus so as to play by the new CBA drafting bonus cap rules. Outlook for next season: Low-A bullpen, perhaps even higher if Potomac needs lefties.
Jake Joyce went 1-3, 5.22 ERA with 25/12 K/BB in 29 relief innings in Auburn, 37 hits. Joyce was unlucky (.381 babip) and his FIP reflects that (3.03 versus 5.22 era), but he still gave up a ton of base-runners (1.67 whip) and a ton of air-outs (0.62 GO/AO on the year). Like Napoli, Joyce was a senior sign for very little money, but he didn’t perform nearly as well. He could seem rather expendible if he doesn’t start strong in 2014. Outlook for next season: Low-A bullpen competition, release candidate.
John Simms worked mostly as a long-man for Auburn, getting two starts at the end of the year. All told, he went 0-4, 5.70 ERA with 34/7 K/BB. His walks were low but hits were high. His ERA looks ugly but look beyond the top layer and you discover that Simms actually didn’t pitch that badly this year. A ridiculously high BABIP of .438 contributed to his inflated short-A ERA; his FIP was just 2.38. Combine that with his 5/1 K/BB ratio and he has the makings of at least a good reliever in the system. Outlook for next season: Low-A bullpen.
Andrew Cooper was 2-1, 3.86 ERA with 16/7 K/BB in 25 2/3 relief innings mostly in Auburn, 29 hits. His Auburn-only numbers were worse. Drafted as a project, and so far he’s pitched like a project. His numbers aren’t bad or great in any direction. I’d suspect the team knew he needed some complex time so I could see him staying in Viera until next season’s short-A starts up and repeating the level. Outlook for next season: XST and then Short-A bullpen again.
Cory Bafidis went 2-0, 2.73 ERA with 22/13 K/BB in 26 1/3 relief innings mostly in Auburn, 18 hits. He got pushed to low-A too early, settled into short-A where he probably belonged to begin with, and pitched relatively well for 20 innings. Outlook for next season: Low-A bullpen loogy competition, perhaps falling back to Short-A again.
Will Hudgins started the year in Hagerstown’s bullpen, was demoted to Auburn, and abruptly retired in July. Outlook for next season: out of baseball.
Other Relievers who got 10 or fewer innings:
- Justin Thomas threw 3 1/3 innings in Auburn during his tour of the Nats farm system in 2013. See low-A post for more. Outlook for next season: High-A bullpen competition.
- Mike Sylvestri started the season in Auburn, got shelled (12 runs in 8 2/3 innings) but then dominated the GCL. He’s undersized (5’10″, 180) and could have trouble getting out of rookie ball (as evidenced by his short-A experience). Outlook for next season: XST and then Short-A bullpen again, release candidate.
- Ben Grisz threw 8 scoreless innings in his return to the organization after missing the 2nd half of 2011 with some unknown “off-field issue” and then the entire 2012 season with some sort of injury (discussed here in this 4-minute interview with awful audio). He’s an NDFA turning 23 with just 28 pro innings in 3 years; clearly he needs to do something in 2014. Outlook for next season: XST and then Short-A bullpen, release candidate.
- Elliott Waterman got hammered in his early outings for Auburn this year before getting demoted to rookie ball. He pitched better in the GCL, eventually earning a call-back to Auburn but has not appeared since 8/31/13. He’s still relatively young (does not turn 23 until November) and he’s a big tall lefty, but he’s putting too many guys on base and not getting enough swing and miss stuff to stick as a situational arm. He may get one more spring training but it wouldn’t surprise me to see him cut loose if he doesn’t make a full-season team in 2014. Outlook for next season: Low-A bullpen loogy competition, release candidate.
- Todd Simko threw a grand total of 6 innings for Auburn and was released.
- Kevin Dicharry threw 4 1/3 innings and then was released 7/1/13. Without any knowledge of how well he recovered from the arm issues he had in college, this seems like an incredibly quick release considering how well he pitched (even if he was overaged) last year in the GCL.
- Niko Spezial started the season with Auburn but got the quick demotion after just 3 1/3 relatively non-descript innings. See the GCL write-up for more.
- Matt Derosier briefly started the season in Auburn he pitched in middle relief for the GCL Nats. See the GCL write-up for more.
- Christian Garcia threw one inning of re-hab work. See the AAA write-up for more.l
- Catchers Erick Fernandez and Andruth Ramirez each threw a bit of bullpen-saving mop-up work, as did OF Greg Zebrack.

Summary

In the end, Auburn featured three starters who will form the bulk of what could be a pretty special Hagerstown rotation next year. Not surprisingly, the rest of the rotation and the bulk of the bullpen was comprised of mid-to-late round draft picks, college seniors and other long-shots, and as a result the team struggled on the year. But from a player development perspective, we may have a few decent players coming out of Auburn this year.

Editor note; corrected Ullmann’s entry after publication per comments; had said NAIA school, corrected to identify Concordia as a Division III school

Written by Todd Boss

December 20th, 2013 at 7:13 am

Hagerstown/Low-A Pitching Staff Year in Review; 2013

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Pedro Encarnacion was the staff leader for Hagerstown in 2013. Photo via flickr.

This is the 5th in the 2013 Pitching staff review series, here’s a review of Hagerstown/Low-A’s pitching staff for 2013. Other parts of the 2013 series:

For some historical perspective, here’s 2012’s version (Aaron Barrett was the feature pitcher) and 2011’s version (Taylor Jordan the feature pitcher) of this post specifically for Hagerstown/Low-A.

All stats are courtesy of either milb.com’s Hagerstown 2013 Stats page or via Fangraph’s Hagerstown 2013 page. Also useful here are the Big Board and the Nats Draft Tracker since so many of these lower-minors guys are recent draftees.

Hagerstown starters. The rotation started the season with Anderson, Mooneyham, Pineyro, Pena and Encarnacion. It ended with Turnbull, Encarnacion, Bacus, Voth, and Johansen (with Dickson in the rotation most of the last half of the season as well). There were quite a few changes along the way; I counted 8 pitcher promotions throughout the year, including 6 starters. Lets take a look at the High-A starters for 2013, starting with the original five and then counting down by the number of starts.

Dixon Anderson got the ball opening day and threw 15 decent starts for the Suns, even making the all-star team. He started to struggle in June, hit the D/L at the end of that month and never re-appeared. As you might imagine, its hard to find out injury news for guys in the low minors, so the extent of his injury is unknown to me at this time. Which makes it kind of hard to predict where he’ll be next year. He had good component ratios and was a college draftee from a good baseball school, so you’d think he’s ready to move up. Outlook for next season: High-A rotation if he’s healthy.
Brett Mooneyham absolutely dominated low-A ball, posting a 1.94 ERA and going 10-3 in 93 innings before mercifully being pushed to Potomac. And this comes as no surprise; a 3rd round pick from a Pac-12 baseball power should dominate a bunch of kids 2 years his junior. I’m not sure what was left to prove in Hagerstown, especially when it became clear he was overpowering the league. To be fair, he did have a 6 week D/L stint that factored in; but once he came back and dominated towards the end of June he should have been pushed up. Outlook for next season: High-A rotation.
Ivan Pineyro threw 13 good starts for Hagerstown, was promoted, then got 3 starts in High-A before he was flipped for Scott Hairston. Outlook for next season: in the Chicago Cubs organization.
Ronald Pena started in the rotation for Hagerstown, then was pushed to the bullpen to become the long-man by June. He ended the season with decent enough numbers: 4-3 with a 3.48 ERA in 28 appearances (10 starts). His component ratios weren’t that great: 55/34 K/BB in 88 innings, but he did give the Suns a great playoff stint in long relief. Where does a guy like this go from here? Outlook for next season: high-A bullpen in a similar long-relief/spot starter role.
Pedro Encarnacion was the staff leader for Hagerstown this year, leading the team in starts, wins (technically tied with Mooneyham), innings pitched and K’s. The DSL graduate posted a 10-9 W/L record with 113/37 K/BB in 128 innings. He had a 1.19 whip on the year, and his FIP (3.50) flattered his ERA (3.58). Encarnacion right now represents the most accomplished DSL graduate in the entire system (when speaking of pitchers anyway), perhaps the best DSL pitching prospect we’ve had the entire time the team has been in Washington (who is more accomplished? Atahualpa Severino?), and I see no reason for him not to keep climbing the ranks next year. Outlook for next season: High-A rotation.
Nick Lee joined up with Hagerstown in mid May and gave the team 17 decent starts before hitting the D/L to make way for new acquisition Dakota Bacus in August (more on him later). He had impressive K rates (102 strikeouts in 91 innings) and a FIP (3.54) that flattered his ERA (3.95). He had a number of sparkling outings interspersed with a couple of failures, but for the most part was consistent this year. Outlook for next season: High-A rotation competition, possibly dropping back to Low-A if the numbers game doesn’t work out (he’s young; he’s still 22).
Kylin Turnbull lasted just three high-A starts, giving up 10 runs in 17 innings and was demoted to low-A. Repeating Hagerstown, he was again poor, putting in just 5 mediocre-to-bad starts before being sent to XST, where he toiled for a few weeks before joining up with Auburn to start the short-season. He pitched to a 1.96 ERA in four short-A starts and earned a promotion back to Hagerstown, where he finally settled down and finished out the year. Unfortunately he laid an egg in the playoffs, but a lot of our guys did. On the whole in Hagerstown for the year, he performed ably; a 3.58 ERA in 16 starts. Outlook for next season: Attempting High-A’s rotation again, but i’m wondering if he’s cut out to start. Despite his draft pedigree (4th rounder in 2011) he may be eventually bound for the bullpen as a lefty specialist.
Ian Dickson was acquired in early June from the Cubs when the Nats finally DFA’d Henry Rodriguez. I define this transaction as “getting something for nothing.” Dickson joined the Suns bullpen, showed his big arm, then was mostly a starter for the rest of the season. All in all for the Suns he had 16 appearances (10 starts) and posted a 4.39 ERA with more than a K/inning. Meanwhile his K/BB ratio was fantastic for such a strikeout guy (71/17 in 65 2/3 innings for the Suns this year). Is he a starter? Outlook for next season: High-A swingman/spot-starter.
Matt Purke over-matched low-A in 6 starts (posting 41 K’s in 29 innings) and was pushed to Potomac in early July. See the high-A writeup for more. Outlook for next season: High-A rotation.
Others who got just 1-2 starts for Hagerstown:
- Austin Voth is an exciting 2013 draftee who blew through both short season teams to end up in the low-A rotation and get the opening playoff start. See the short-A writeup for more.
- Jake Johansen is, as we all know, the Nats top draft pick from 2013. He (like Voth) pushed his way to low-A this season. See the short-A writeup for more.
- Dakota Bacus came to the team in late August in trade for Kurt Suzuki; he spent most of the year in Oakland’s low-A team and performed ably. He posted a 3.65 ERA in 121 innings but showed a bit of a wild streak. Outlook for next season: High-A rotation competition.
- Blake Schwartz blitzed through 4 starts in low-A and was quickly promoted to Potomac. See the high-A write-up for more. Outlook for next season: AA rotation.
- Brian Dupra earned two promotions on the season to end up in Potomac’s bullpen. See the high-A write-up for more. Outlook for next season: High-A bullpen competition, possible release.
- Reynaldo Lopez gave Hagerstown a spot start, getting called up from Auburn. See Short-A write-up for more.
- Ryan Mattheus got a rehab “start.” See MLB write-up for more.

Hagerstown relievers. We’ll start with the closers and work backwards by IP from there. I will say this; when considering the future of middle relievers in low-A ball, everything is a crap shoot. Most of these guys are already “org guys” before they’ve even really started their careers and its really difficult to project where they may go. Unfortunately, lots of these guys may end up being post spring-training releases to make way for the newer crop of draftees.

Robert Benincasa led the Suns in saves despite being promoted mid-season. See the high-A write-up for more. Outlook for next season: AA/High-A bullpen.
Gilberto Mendez dominated low-A this season, arriving in June, posting a 0.91 ERA and striking out 33 in 29 2/3 innings while earning 7 saves. No reason to think the 2011 DR signing isn’t moving on up. I like this guy; so far he’s pitched pretty well at every level he’s hit. Outlook for next season: High-A bullpen, possibly the closer if Benincasa is in AA.
Derek Self couldn’t make the leap to High-A, and spent most of the season in Hagerstown. He posted decent numbers in low-A: a 3.41 ERA in 31 2/3 innings pitching mostly towards the back of the bullpen. Outlook for next season: trying the high-A bullpen again, possibly falling back to the low-A bullpen.
Travis Henke toiled most of the season in Hagerstown and got a late-season promotion. In Low-A he posted a 2.72 ERA in nearly 60 innings of mostly longer relief. He’s yet another decent find out of a small college (Arkansas – Little Rock) for the Nats scouting department. Outlook for next season: high-A bullpen.
Bryan Harper earned his keep in low-A this year, posting a 3.97 ERA in 45 innings. He’s got to work on his control though; 32 walks in those 45 innings completely counter balance his nice K/9 ratio. Outlook for next season: high-A bullpen competition as the matchup-lefty.
Cody Davis continued to pitch extremely well for an undrafted free agent signing, succeeding in his third straight season and third straight promotion. For Hagerstown in 2013; a 2.76 ERA in 42 innings, more than a K/inning, nearly a 4/1 K/BB ratio and an even better FIP (2.33) than his ERA. He’s clearly earned a shot at the next level. Outlook for next season: High-A bullpen.
Brian Rauh started the year in Hagerstown’s bullpen as an 8th inning guy, didn’t really pitch that well but was pushed up to Potomac anyway. See the high-A write-up for more. Outlook for next season: High-A bullpen, perhaps a starter. Perhaps a release candidate.
Christian Meza lasted about 5 weeks in Potomac, putting up a 6.62 ERA and greater than a 2.00 whip before getting demoted back to Hagerstown. For Hagerstown he was better but still not great; a 4.00 ERA over 31 innings. To be fair, his K rate was excellent and his FIP in such a short sample size was decent, but giving up 2 base runners an inning as a reliever is a no-no. He’s entering his 5th pro season and has thus far been unable to succeed above low-A ball; he may face a do-or-die spring training in 2014. He is a lefty though, and the lower parts of the system seem to lack lefty matchup guys, so this could be a saving grace. Outlook for next season: trying the high-A bullpen again, possible release candidate.
David Fischer started the year in Hagerstown but was quickly bumped up to Potomac, where he served as a long-man out of the pen. See the high-A write-up for more. Outlook for next season: High-A bullpen.
Will Hudgins started the year in Hagerstown’s bullpen, was demoted to Auburn, and abruptly retired in July. Odd in my opinion; his stats didn’t look that bad. Outlook for next season: out of baseball.
Other relievers who didn’t get enough innings to really pass much judgement:
- Justin Thomas bounced around the system in his first pro year, pitching at 4 different levels. He only threw a grand total of 22 innings on the year so its hard to pass too much judgement. He was a college senior draftee so you’d have to think he’s better suited for full-season ball in 2014. Outlook for next season: High-A bullpen competition.
- Chris McKenzie threw 12 innings of 5.25 ERA ball and was released, ending a 4 year tenure in the organization.
- Jason Smith got lit up in 7+ innings and was released.
- Corey Bafidis stopped in to Hagerstown for two appearances before heading to Auburn. See the short-A write-up.
- Leonard Hollins had one appearance in low-A, got sent back to XST and spent the season in Auburn. See the short-A write-up.
- Jake Walsh had 1 IP during a brief callup in August, then joined the Suns for the playoffs. See the GCL write-up for more.

Summary

The Suns were the first half champs on the backs of good (if over-aged) starting pitching. It is what it is; the Nationals are drafting older players, focusing on college guys, and its just natural that our low-A team is going to trend older. Based on what I see here, there’s going to be quite a competition for the High-A spots in 2014. There’s going to be more guys than spots, both in the rotation and in the bullpen.

A lot of the names who featured for the Suns in the playoffs may very well be back to start 2014, giving the team an excellent chance of repeating as first half champs in 2014.

Written by Todd Boss

December 19th, 2013 at 7:10 am

Potomac/High-A Pitching Staff Year in Review; 2013

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Taylor Jordan’s phenomenal rise from A-ball to the majors is this year’s high-A story of the year. Photo via wffn.net/hueytaxi on flikr.com

This is the 4th in the 2013 Pitching staff review series, here’s a review of Potomac/High-A’s pitching staff for 2013. Other parts of the 2013 series:

For some historical perspective, here’s 2012’s version (Nathan Karns the feature pitcher) and 2011’s version (Danny Rosenbaum the feature pitcher) of this post specifically for Potomac/High-A.

All stats are courtesy of either milb.com’s Potomac 2013 Stats page or via Fangraph’s Potomac 2013 page. Also useful here are the Big Board and the Nats Draft Tracker since so many of these lower-minors guys are recent draftees.

Note: from here on down, there’s more than a few examples of small sample sizes. Plus, I know many readers here were frequent Potomac game attendees and may have different/better opinions than I. Please comment if you disagree with the sentiments here.

Potomac starters. The rotation started the season with Ray, Jordan, Cole, Turnbull and Hill. It ended with Purke, Demny, Mooneyham, Solis and Schwartz. There were quite a few changes along the way; I counted 9 promotions throughout the year. Lets take a look at the High-A starters for 2013, starting with the original five and then counting down by the number of starts. Because there were so many promotions, we’ll be referring to the AA and MLB posts frequently here for more detail.

Robbie Ray got the ball opening day and never looked back: he dominated high-A in the first half of the season (10.71 K/9 in 16 High-A starts) and continued the great work as one of the youngest starters in all of AA by the time the season was over. See the AA-writeup for more. Outlook for next season: in the Detroit organization.
Taylor Jordan gave up just 5 earned runs in his first 6 Potomac starts of the year, quickly earning him a promotion to AA. We all know the story from here; he blew up AA and then gave the MLB team 9 good starts before hitting his post TJ surgery innings limit. See AA’s and the MLB post for more detail. Outlook for next season: AAA rotation.
A. J. Cole made his triumphant return to the Nats organization, escaping his hellish 2012 season in the California League by coming back to Washington as bounty for Michael Morse. Cole threw about 100 innings in High-A across 18 starts and was 6-3 with a 4.25 ERA. His FIP was considerably better and he averaged more than a K/inning, and the team pushed him to AA as a 21 year old. See AA’s post for more. Outlook for next season: AA rotation to start, looking for a mid-season promotion to AAA.
Kylin Turnbull lasted just three high-A starts, giving up 10 runs in 17 innings and was demoted to low-A. See low-A’s post for more. Outlook for next season: Attempting High-A’s rotation again.
Taylor Hill threw 84 innings of sub 3.00 ball across 14 starts in Potomac, earning a promotion to AA mid-season. See AA’s write-up for more. Outlook for next season: AA rotation.
Blake Schwartz blitzed through 4 starts in low-A and was quickly promoted to Potomac, where he led the staff in starts, wins and innings. He finished the year with an 11-4 record with a 2.65 ERA in 132 innings. His ERA was a bit masked by a low BABIP, resulting in a FIP that was a point higher. He had a nice 4/1 K/BB ratio, a relatively small WHIP, and a decent enough K/9 rate. Another excellent small college find by the Nats scouting staff. Outlook for next season: You have to think he’s in the AA rotation; what more does he have to prove in high-A?
Sammy Solis made it back from Tommy John and gave Potomac 57 innings over 13 apperances with a decent 3.43 ERA. He did miss some time mid-season but came back pretty strong. He was also the P-Nats’ #1 starter in the playoffs, giving them one great and one not-so-great start in the post season. Solis was added to the 40-man ahead of the Rule-5 draft by virtue of his being eligible; now there’s talk about him possibly featuring as a lefty-matchup guy at the major league level. I can see that eventually, but not from the start of the 2014 season. I can see Solis going to AA to get some reps against better hitters and possibly covering for injuries/need later this year. Outlook for next season: AA rotation for now.
Brian Rauh started the year in Hagerstown’s bullpen as an 8th inning guy, didn’t really pitch that well but was pushed up to Potomac anyway, where he suddenly slotted in as a starter and ended up giving the team 12 starts over 16 appearances with a 4.22 ERA (4.81 FIP) over 64 innings. He made way in the rotation late in the season for Brett Mooneyham and worked out of the pen again for the playoffs. Outlook for next season: High-A bullpen, perhaps a starter. Perhaps a release candidate.
Matt Purke finally looked healthy after years of shoulder issues. He over matched low-A and was pushed to Potomac in early July. In 12 starts he was 5-3 with a 4.43 ERA, 1.39 whip, and 3.58 FIP. He got the ball in the ghird playoff game and pitched decently enough. What concerns me is his lack of dominance of A-ball hitters; he sported just a 6.05 K/9 rate as a starter in High-A this year. This from a former first round pick, a dominant lefty who was undefeated as a freshman in college in a good baseball conference. What are we to make of him at this point? On the bright side, he’s only 22 and still has a couple of option years left, so the Nats have some time to see what they have (unlike, say with Solis, who is 25 and needs to show something like right now). Outlook for next season: High-A starter once again, looking for a quick promotion to AA.
Paul Demny couldn’t make the jump to AA as a starter, and was demoted back to Potomac mid-season. He ended the season in Potomac’s rotation but (likely out of respect for what the Potomac guys accomplished this year) did not participate in the High-A playoffs. In 8 Potomac starts, he was 2-2 with a 3.69 ERA with about a K/inning, which he should have done considering that he’s in his 6th pro season. See the AA post for more. Outlook for next season: AA bullpen.
Brett Mooneyham pitched most of the year in Hagerstown before a late-season bump up to Potomac, where he promptly got shelled. See the low-A post for more. Outlook for next season: High-A rotation.
Other guys who got spot starts here and there:
- Ivan Pineyro got 3 starts in High-A before he was flipped for Scott Hairston. See the low-A post for more. (Editor’s note: corrected for the right Hairston thanks to John C comment).
- Brian Dupra got a few spot-starts; see the reliever section.
- Marcos Frias posted a 7.59 ERA in two starts and a few relief appearances and was released 7/24/13. See the AA post for more.
- Rob Gilliam made two forgettable starts in High-A before getting pushed up to AA. See the AA post for more.
- Hector Sylvestre got called up from the rookie league to make one spot start. See GCL post for more.
- Ross Detwiler and Ross Ohlendorf both made one rehab start for Potomac. See MLB post for more.

Potomac Relievers: taking a look at the relief corps. We’ll organize relievers by looking at closers first, then by innings pitched.

Robert Benincasa earned 17 saves in 25 apperances for Potomac to lead the team in saves. He earned his promotion after starting the season as Hagerstown’s closer. His numbers on the year: 34/9 K/BB in 30 innings, 3.30 ERA, 1.23 whip, 2.80 fip. His performance earned him a placement in the Arizona Fall League, where he posted a 4.00 ERA in 9 innings of work. Outlook for next season: Depending on the numbers, I could see him in the AA bullpen or beginning in High-A with a look for a quick promotion.
Richie Mirowski dominated to the tune of a 1.50 ERA across 48 high-A innings and earned his promotion. See the AA post for more. Outlook for next season: AA bullpen again, looking to force another promotion.
Rob Wort started the season in AA, struggled, missed 5 weeks with an injury, but then settled in as a back-of-the-bullpen guy for Potomac. In 34 innings he posted a 3.71 ERA but more impressively had a 48/29 K/BB ratio. Well, ok, the 29 walks in 34 innings wasn’t that impressive, but the 48 Ks was. Unfortunately for Wort, this is the FOURTH season in a row he’s been in Potomac. He had absolutely fantastic numbers in 2012 but couldn’t back them up. It may be safe to say he’s hit his limit organizationally. Outlook for next season: Another shot at AA bullpen but may end up back in High-A.
Greg Holt put up solid numbers as a middle reliever for Potomac, leading the bullpen in innings while going 9-0 with a 3.71 ERA in 70+ innings. I’m concerned with his 55/33 K/BB ratio in those 70 innings; that just seems like too many walks and not enough K’s. He’s progressed each of his three pro seasons; will he keep moving on up to AA for 2014? Outlook for next season: Possibly in AA’s bullpen, more likely back as high-A middle reliever.
Colin Bates had a really nice season for Potomac this year, posting nearly a 6-1 K/BB ratio while still striking out nearly 7 guys per 9 innings pitched. He posted a 2.61 ERA over 62 innings pitched, his second straight season advancing a level and posting a sub 3.00 ERA in the bullpen. Outlook for next season: AA bullpen.
Brian Dupra earned two promotions on the season to end up in Potomac’s bullpen, where he put up pedestrian numbers (1-7, 4.96 ERA, 1.49 whip). A college senior draftee with very little bonus money investment, Dupra’s usefulness to the organization may be at a limit. Outlook for next season: High-A bullpen competition, possible release.
David Fischer started the year in Hagerstown but was quickly bumped up to Potomac, where he served as a long-man out of the pen. He hit the D/L in mid August and never returned. On the year his numbers were pedestrian; 4.30 ERA in 44 innings. He did maintain a great K/9 rate (10.84). But Fischer’s problem is the same as his fellow low-bonus/college senior draftees currently toiling in A-ball; its move up or ship out. Outlook for next season: High-A bullpen.
Matt Grace threw 28 innings of quality relief and was bumped up to AA. See the AA write-up for more. Outlook for next season: AA bullpen to continue as the lefty matchup guy.
Rafael Martin didn’t make his first appearance until July, and when he got to Potomac he was great; a 1.04 ERA in 26 innings. As well he should; two years ago he was a closer in AA and posted a 1.77 era. What is he doing in A-Ball? The Mexican league free agent signing in 2009 seems like he should be back in AA, where he’s shown he can compete in the past. Outlook for next season: AA bullpen.
Derek Self couldn’t make the leap to High-A, getting demoted to Hagerstown after putting up a 6 ERA in 29 innings. See the low-A post for more. Outlook for next season: trying the high-A bullpen again.
Tyler Herron quickly showed he was too good for High-A and was promoted to Harrisburg after 20 innings. See the AA post for more. Outlook for next season: AAA bullpen.
Christian Meza lasted about 5 weeks in Potomac, putting up a 6.62 ERA and greater than a 2.00 whip before getting demoted back to Hagerstown. See the low-A post for more. Outlook for next season: trying the high-A bullpen again, possible release candidate.
Travis Henke toiled most of the season in Hagerstown and got a late-season promotion. See the low-A post for more. Outlook for next season: high-A bullpen.
Cameron Selik struggled through 10 appearances and 11 innings throughout the course of the season, missing a ton of time as he struggled with injury. He can’t go back to Potomac for the fourth straight season, can he? Outlook for next season: AA bullpen if healthy, otherwise perhaps an unfortunate release candidate.
Other guys who had short stints with Potomac this year:
- Ben Hawkins threw 8 innings and was released.
- Justin Thomas threw just one inning in Potomac during his tour of the low-minors this year; see the Low-A post for more.

Summary

No less than 18 guys got starts this year for Potomac, in a 142 game season. All five of their opening day starters were moved out (four up, one down) by mid-season, and yet the team still made the playoffs. That’s a great testament to the pitcher development going on in our low minors, and I think it is going to show on the big club very soon. Its not hard to see potential in a whole slew of the starters who passed through Potomac this year.

On the reliever side, there’s a couple of guys here who may make an impact, but there’s also a whole slew of right handed middle relievers who were college senior graduates who may very quickly find themselves pushed out by the later crops of college senior draftees.

Written by Todd Boss

December 18th, 2013 at 7:34 am

August-September 2013: Minor League Monthly Rotation Review

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Roark is our ML inspirational story of the year. Photo via milb.com

Here’s the final Minor League Rotation Review post for the season (Here’s April 2013, May 2013, June 2013 and July 2013‘s posts for historical viewing). Since the minor league seasons mostly end right after the Labor Day weekend, this post actually includes a few days in September for each non-playoff team. We’ll also include the playoff starts for those teams that made it, which has pushed this post well into September (and very late) to include all the playoff starts for our many minor league playoff teams.

For each level, I’ll put out the rotation members, their “letter grades” per start for this month only, and then throw in a quick link to show their seasonal stats for context. For each team there are 3 distinct groups of starters: the top group of 5-6 Starters per level is the “current rotation” as best as I can figure it, then the next section of pitchers are swing-men or spot-starters or guys who had “2nd start” or longer outings worthy of grading, followed by a 3rd group of guys who are generally no longer with the team (either by D/L, promotion, demotion or release). I’ve only listed the third category if something transactionally has happened to the player this particular month.

AAA Rotation: click here for Syracuse Milb.com stats

Rosenbaum: A,D,D,C+,B+,C+,C-
Maya: A,C,B+,C+,B+
Mandel:B,A,A,A,D+,B+
Clay: A,C+,A,B+,C,A
Tatusko: F/inc,F,A-,D,D,D-,D

Robertson: A-
Kimball: B

Roark: B- -> promoted
Ohlendorf: B+ (rehab)
Hill: C-,C- -> demoted back down post spot starts

Discussion: Syracuse drug itself to the finish line of a disappointing season withat least some stability in the rotation. The 5 guys standing at the end were basically the rotation for the entire month. Tanner Roark was rewarded for a great season by getting called up to provide some long relief in the MLB bullpen and 6 weeks later is now 7-0 with the best ERA for any pitcher with more than 40 innings in the entire MLB. Roark’s trade-mate Ryan Tatusko really struggled down the stretch and finishes with a 4.33 ERA and a 1.58 whip on the season. Meanwhile, Caleb Clay continues his career resurgence and may have put himself in place to pick his spot in MLFA next year (well, unless the Nats hold onto him by putting him on the 40-man, not a bad idea). Jeff Mandel and Yunesky Maya pitched well while playing out the string; both are MLFAs and both may choose to look elsewhere.

AA: click here for Harrisburg Milb.com stats

Karns: B+,A,D,A,C+,A,A+ (playoffs), F (playoffs)
Treinen: C+,A,F (playoff)
Cole: A+,C,C-,B-,A,C (playoff),C+ (playoff)
Hill: B -> up/down,A-,D,C+,A (playoff)
Ray: A,B,D,B-,D,A+,A+ (playoff)

Gilliam: D,D+,C-,D -> demoted to bullpen for Treinen?/spot starts?,A-
Swynenberg: D,B -> back to bullpen,B+

Discussion: Harrisburg played great down the stretch to reach the playoffs, then won a series before losing in the League Final. Nathan Karns recovered from his to really pitch well in August and in the first round of the playoffs before getting hammered in the league final series. Robbie Ray did nothing to damage his career advancement, pitching a gem in his playoff appearance. Fellow HS phenom draftee A.J. Cole pitched well enough in the playoffs, good enough to get the wins each time.

High-A: click here for Potomac Milb.com stats

Purke: B,A,B,B+,C,A,C (playoff)
Demny: B+/weird game,D+,C+,C+,A,C
Mooneyham: F,D,F-,C (playoff)
Solis: A,D,C+,B,B-,F,A (playoff),F (playoff)
Schwartz: A,D+,A-,B-,A+,C,A+ (playoff)

Rauh B+,A,D-,C- (lost rotation spot to Mooneyham?)
Fischer: -> D/L
Bates A-
Holt: B+ (abbr)
Dupra: D-,A-

Ohlendorf | | | | D (rehab)

Discussion: Blake Schwartz was the most consistent of the starters for Potomac this month (and this season really). Mooneyham struggled after his promotion but saved his best game for the playoffs. Matthew Purke pitched decently in the month but his seasonal numbers remain poor. Sammy Solis had a couple of dud outings, including his playoff appearance, but on the whole I think his 2013 is a success coming off surgery. Paul Demny seems like he’s bound for the bullpen soon; he’s shown multiple times he cannot compete as a starter above the high-A level.

Low-A: click here for Hagerstown Milb.com stats

Turnbull: B+,A-,A,B,B,A,B- (playoff),F (playoff)
Encarnation: C-,C,B+,B-,C+,B-,F,B (playoff)
Bacus: A,A+ (playoff long relief),D (playoff)
Voth: D+,A+,A (playoff)
Johansen: D,D,A (playoff)

RPena: B+,A-,A+ (playoff long relief)
Dickson: D-,D+,A,B+,A- -> demoted to bullpen for Bacus

Mooneyham: A,A+,A,A+ -> promoted
Lee: F,C+,A+,D,B+ -> d/l for Bacus

Discussion: I wonder how it played in the Hagerstown clubhouse that 3/5ths of their playoff rotation had been with the team less than 3 weeks? Dakota Bacus especially; he was acquired, made one start and was a playoff starter. Austin Voth and Jake Johansen were due promotions no doubt, but to immediately get thrown into the low-A playofs in place of guys who had worked longer and harder to get the Suns there seems, well, wrong. Nonetheless, longer serving Sun pitchers such as Ronald Pena, Kylin Turnbull and Pedro Encarnacion (not Edwin, thanks to commenter Melissa) all finished off good seasons and will look at high-A next spring.

Short-A: click here for Auburn Milb.com stats

Orlan: | | C+,A,C- | F-,B-,A,A,F | B,A,A-,D+,D,B+
Giolito: | | | | A,A,B
Selsor: | | B-,F,C+ | B,D,D -> demoted to bullpen | A,B+,D+
Pivetta: | | | | D,D,D -> demoted to bullpen for Selsor?/maybe not,B+,A
Ullmann: | | | F,B+ | B,D-,B+,C-
Simms: | | | | D+,F

Barrientos: F,F,F -> demoted to bullpen for Simms

DWilliams: F -> demoted
Voth: B+,A+,A+ -> promoted
Treinen: A/inc (rehab start),A+ (rehab)
Johansen: A-,A,A+ -> promoted
Young: A (rehab)

Discussion: Lots of ugly pitching lines for Auburn this year. Casey Selsor and Nick Pivetta struggled to stay in the rotation, the team struggled to replace the production they got out of promoted starters Voth and Johansen, and the results showed on the field. Robert Orlan was the staff-leader in innings and seems like a good bet for a full-season starter’s job next year. The rest of this motley crue of starters leaves Auburn with ERAs in the 4s and 5s (or higher) and likely bullpen roles going forward.

GCL: click here for GCL-Nationals Stats on MiLB.com

JRodriguez: B+,C,C,D/inc,A-,B+ (playoff)
Silvestre: A-,A,A,A-,A+ (playoff)
Suero: A,A+,A+ (playoff)
Ott: B,A,A,B/inc
DWilliams: B+,D-,A

KRodriguez: D-,C
Valdez: C,B+
DeRosier: C,B
Waterman: B,B-
Sylvestri: A-
Reyes: D

Pivetta: promoted
Giolito: A,A,A -> promoted
Young: 2-inning rehab

GCL’s trio of dominant pitchers (Jefry Rodriguez, Wander Suero and Hector Silvestre) powered the team to an easy GCL victory after its record breaking season. Most of the rest of the staff had graded outings of chunks of like 3-4 innings, so it was difficult to really pass judgement on the chances of sticking as a starter. Lucas Giolito of course earned his promotion to short-A at the end of the season and seems a good bet to be a low-A migrating to high-A starter in 2014.

Written by Todd Boss

September 20th, 2013 at 9:51 am

July 2013: Minor League Monthly Rotation Review

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A.J. Cole is having a good 2013. Photo: AP Stock

A.J. Cole is having a rebound 2013 for sure. Photo: AP Stock

Here’s this month’s Minor League Rotation Review post. Here’s April 2013, May 2013, and June 2013‘s posts for history.

All stats mentioned (ERAs, Whips, K/9 rates, etc) are as of 8/1/13 and may have slightly changed by the time of this posting.

AAA Rotation: click here for Syracuse Milb.com stats

Maya: B+,D,D-,A-,B+,A
Tatusko: D,A,B,C+,B,B
Rosenbaum: B,C-,A,D,D
Roark: B+,C+,C-,A-,A
Clay: A,A,D+/inc (rain),B,C

Mandel: D->back to bullpen
Robertson: F

Discussion: Syracuse has had the most stable rotation of the whole system. Which is ironic because (if I’m interpreting their service time correctly) 4/5ths of this rotation are minor league free agents this coming off season. Only Danny Rosenbaum is tied to the organization past this year, having already “survived” one rule-5 draft, but I think we can read the tea-leaves in terms of his future with the organization. The bright side of this turnover will be the rightful promotion and challenging of several AA pitchers right now, to start grooming the true MLB injury replacements that we just did not have in-house this year (with apologies to Chris Young who really did not work out and Ross Ohlendorf, who has but in a non-starting role thus far).

Yunesky Maya has shown signs of life lately, putting up a few good performances in the latter part of the month. Tanner Roark seems like he could be a useful swing-man on the MLB roster if called into action; he’s performed ably since returning to the rotation. Caleb Clay continues to impress; how did he not success in Boston’s organization?

In the bullpen, Xavier Cedeno has excelled since his waiver claim from Houston but suffered from bad timing and bad luck; the two loogies called up (Abad and Krol) have both excelled. Cedeno is likely another 6-year MLFA heading elsewhere this coming off-season. (Note: Cedeno has just been called up to cover for Ohlendorf’s “dead arm” D/L trip).

AA: click here for Harrisburg Milb.com stats

Karns: A,A (inc),A,A,B-,B-
Gilliam: A-,A+,D+,B,B,C-
Cole: A+,A
Ray: B+,A++,D,D,B-
Hill: A,B,A-,B,B,D+

Herron: D
Swynenberg: A-
Grace: B

Demny: -> D/L, to bullpen, demoted
Treinen: D->d/l,C+,B+ -> D/L

Discussion: Harrisburg’s rotation is now down to just one of the 5 guys who opened the year there; Nathan Karns has recovered from his MLB stint and long layoff and is back to dominating; if it weren’t for the full-deck in AAA Karns may have been promoted by now. Blake Treinen (another original rotation guy) is on his second D/L stint of the month but has kept his numbers respectable. Robert Gilliam continues his up-and-down season, moving between stellar and sub-par starts (which is reflected in his 4.09 ERA in AA).

The next generation though seems upon us: A.J. Cole, Robbie Ray and Taylor Hill are all on the same path this year: succeeded in High-A, pushed to AA and are now succeeding there. Cole’s first two starts in Harrisburg could not have gone better, and Ray’s numbers are still good despite a couple of rough starts. Remember; both Ray and Cole were “really young” at the season’s onset for High-A; now they’re among the youngest guys in all of AA and still producing. This is great news going forward for this farm system, especially considering that another of the opening day Potomac starters (Taylor Jordan) is now effectively pitching in the majors. I know this is the Harrisburg section, but think about the success of Potomac’s original 5 this year.

High-A: click here for Potomac Milb.com stats

Purke: A-,F-,C-,D-,D,B+
Demny: D,D/inc (2 innings)
Solis: A-,D,A-
Schwartz: A,D,C-,B+,C+,B+
Rauh C,A,D,B+,A,D/inc (2/3 inning)

Fischer: A,B
Holt: A

Ray: -> promoted
Pineyro: A -> traded
Cole: D,B+/inc,A- -> promoted
Frias: B,F -> bullpen -> released 7/24/13

Discussion: The churn in the Potomac rotation continues. They’ve not gotten starts from 15 different non-rehab assignment players. And they keep on chugging, holding an 8 game lead in the division on August 1st after winning the first half. Potomac’s two significant/important names of course are Matthew Purke and Sammy Solis. Purke has looked hittable in High-A, his ERA skewed by one really bad outing but still not as dominant as you’d like someone with his pedigree to be. Meanwhile Solis’ latest “return” seems to be going pretty well; he maintains a 2.65 ERA in Potomac while trying to build up arm strength. Blake Schwartz is now the longest tenured rotation member and has pitched excellently so far in 2013. He could be quite a find if he continues to develop (he was a 17th round pick who mostly pitched in Division II in college).

Meanwhile, Paul Demny‘s career faced a significant setback upon his demotion from Harrisburg. He now sits back in High-A, a level at which he pitched a full season in 2011. It may be time for Demny to try a conversion to relief, as it seems that he may be stalled as a starter. He had great K/9 rates as a starter; it seems he may make a very effective reliever.

Low-A: click here for Hagerstown Milb.com stats

Turnbull: F,D,A,C-,A,D
Encarnation: A+,C,A,D,A-,B+
Mooneyham: B+,B-,D,B,A+
Dickson: A,F,C+,B+
Lee: A,B+,C-,B+,A-,B+

RPena: B,B+
Harper: | | | B,B+
Meza: B

Purke: -> promoted
Anderson: -> d/l

Discussion: with Dixon Anderson‘s D/L trip, Pedro Encarnacion now becomes the senior statesman of Hagerstown. Both guys have pretty similar numbers; good ERAs (3.20-3.30) and good whips (1.17-1.19). Encarnaction continues his slow march up the farm system, having gotten further along than most every DSL graduate in recent years. Brett Mooneyham continues to dominate a league that he’s over-qualified for. Kylin Turnbull continues to get pounded in a league that he should be handling. Ian Dickson (who we got in trade for Henry Rodriguez) has done decently well since being added to the rotation; outside of one blow-up he’s given up just 4 runs in 20 innings over 5 starts. Not a bad return so far for a guy we were going to cut anyway (and who the Cubs took about 5 weeks to DFA themselves).

Short-A: click here for Auburn Milb.com stats

Johansen: A,A,B+,B+,A
Barrientos: D,C+,C- -> D/L,F
Orlan: F-,B-,A,A,F
DWilliams: B-,F,D,C-
Voth: A,C+,B/inc (1ip),A-
Ullmann: | | | F,B+

Hollins: B,B+
Bafidis: D+
Medina: A-
Selsor: B,D,D -> demoted to bullpen

Hudgins: D+,A- -> retired !?
Turnbull: C -> promoted

We’re seeing some big ERAs in Auburn so far. Robert Orlan; 5.19 ERA. Joel Barrientos: 4.66. Deion Williams: 9.42. Ugh. More interesting to me are the 2013 draftee performances thus far. 2nd rounder Jake Johansen has been good; sub 1.00 ERA, sub 1.00 whip and about a K an inning so far. He’s been a bit wild (28/14 K/BB ratio but has been consistently stingy when it comes to runs. 5th rounder Austin Voth has been sharp; 17/1 K/BB ratio in 14 innings so far in Short-A. Lastly Ryan Ullman, a 30th round pick has had up and down starts so far in his 13 short-A innings.

I remain baffled with Will Hudgins abrupt retirement; he had 12 innings of relatively decent relief in 2013 and then tweeted out his retirement. He hasn’t tweeted since, and when I mentioned it in the daily NationalsProspect.com post I didn’t get anyone who knew anything else. Hopefully the retirement was not injury or illness related.

GCL: click here for GCL-Nationals Stats on MiLB.com

JRodriguez: F,A,A,B,B+
Silvestre: C-,A,F,A
Giolito: D/inc (only 1/3 inning),B,A-,D/inc (2/3 inings),D
Suero: B,B+,A
Valdez: A

Ott: B,B,C
DeRosier: B,B-
KRodriguez: B,B+,B+,C+
Pivetta: B-,B+,A
Spezial: A
Webb: A

Voth: A -> promoted
Ullmann: A,D+ -> promoted

It almost isn’t worth trying to grade out these GCL pitchers; most of the time they’re going 2-3 innings per “start” or per long relief stint. If you pitch 3 scoreless innings, is that an “A?” Lucas Giolito now has 6 “starts” but only a total of 12 combined innings thrown. DSL grads Wander Suero and Jefry Rodriguez have looked promising. Kelvin Rodriguez has good numbers in his combined mid-relief stints but relatively few strike outs (only 9 in 21 1/3 innings).

Written by Todd Boss

August 6th, 2013 at 8:44 am

Monthly Check-in with Minor League Pitching Staffs

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Robbie Ray is having a nice bounce-back 2013 so far. Photo: Natsnewsnetwork.blogspot.com

In 2011, I managed to do “Rotational Review” posts for both the MLB team and the minor league system for the whole summer. That turned out to be a pretty hefty time commitment, and an endeavor that I couldn’t keep up with. I managed to do all 33 MLB rotation reviews but gave up on the minor league systems around the all-star break. For the entirety of 2012 I never once published much of an in-season look at any of the minor league teams. But I want to stay aware of the minor league pitchers; its basically the reason I started this blog. I wanted to be up on the rising talent, always on the lookout for the next home grown pitching talent.

In 2013, I’ve modified my approach. With the help of daily doses of Luke Erickson‘s NationalsProspects.com daily looks, I’m taking the time to give a quick “grade” to each Starter’s outing by looking at the stat-line and the peripherals, in order to gauge how guys are looking. Instead of the previous “good-bad-soso” analysis, I’ve adopted somewhat of a letter grade system, from A+ to F. It isn’t a hard and fast grading system, but generally speaking we start with a run-of-the-mill quality start being graded a C (lets face it, 3 earned runs in 6 innings for a 4.50 ERA is average) and then go from there. 6 shutout innings gets somewhere between an A+ and an A- depending on # of hits/walks/Ks, while a complete meltdown (e.g. 7 runs in 3 innings) earns an F. You get the idea.

So, without further ado, here’s the April 2013 look at the starters by team, with grades for outings and some commentary. We’ll do an expanded view of the MLB rotation in the next post. The grades are through 4/30’s outings; the stats may be slightly off since I wrote the bulk of this prior to this morning.

AAA Rotation

Ohlendorf: A,B,D+,D,C-
Young: F,D
Maya: C,D,D,F,D-
Perry: D-,B+,C-,B
Rosenbaum: A-,A,C+,A

Roark: A,D,F->demoted to bullpen,A
Tatusko: D,A-

Discussion: Syracuse YTD Stats are here for reference

(A quick note explaining the notation; the top 5 pitchers are the current rotation, and guys who have been starters before promotions or demotions, or who have spot starts are noted below the current rotational members. The rotation is listed in current appearance order).

So far, the AAA rotation (which i like to call the “desperately seeking to find an injury backup starter” group) has been mostly a mess this year. Former Major league starters Ross Ohlendorf and Chris Young sport ERAs of 5.46 and 9.00 respectively. Yunesky Maya has been even worse; a 7.45 ERA and a 1.62 whip. Ryan Perry rebounded after a rough debut outing. Tanner Roark was holding Young’s rotation spot and was either excellent or awful; even with two grade-A outings he’s sporting an 8.44 ERA in 21 1/3 innings. Only Danny Rosenbaum has shown himself worthy of a potential call up; after trying out for the Colorado rotation all spring on a Rule-5 invitation, he was returned and has really thrown well in Syracuse. (side note on Rosenbaum; is he now officially “Daniel?” Sort of how we went from Tom Milone to Tommy? I’ll have to update all my tags in the blog system).

In the Bullpen, Erik Davis, Fernando Abad and JC Romero each sport sub 1.00 ERAs in relief; the rest of the bullpen ranges from mediocre to awful. As noted in a prior post comment, there’s not a lot of relief backup were one of our MLB arms to go down. Davis is showing why the team protected him last November though.

AA Rotation

Broderick: C-,C+,B-,F,B-
Treinen: F,D,A,C,B+
Demny: A-,D,C,C-,F
Clay: D,A,A,C,B+
Karns: F,A,A,B+

Holder: C

Discussion: Harrisburg YTD Stats are here for reference

As with Syracuse, there’s a lot of up-and-down so far in Harrisburg. Brian Broderick, who should be in AAA frankly, is barely holding on in AA. He’s yet to have anywhere close to a dominant outing. Blake Treinen (throw-in from the Michael Morse trade) started really slow and has clawed his way back to respectability. Paul Demny has been up and down too. Caleb Clay (a MLFA signing who spent 6 years in the Boston organization) has been surprisingly sucessful as an Eastern League starter; he was relatively UNsuccessful the last two years playing for Boston’s AA affiliate in the same league as a middle reliever. We’ll see if he can keep this up. Lastly Nathan Karns, who in my mind is the “next best Nats starter prospect” to keep an eye on (with apologies to Rosenbaum, AJ Cole and Lucas Giolito) himself rebounded from an awful 2013 debut to put in 3 dominant starts. He now sits with a 3.80 ERA and 29 ks in 21 innings through 5 starts with nearly a 4/1 K/BB ratio.

Trevor Holder got a spot start and has been otherwise decent. Ian Krol (the PTBNL in the Morse trade) has been lights out; one run allowed in 13+ innings so far. Michael Broadway, who we picked up as a MLFA just a few days before the season started, has also been good in short sample sizes. Aaron Barrett has 4 saves and 15 ks to just 3 walks in his 11 innings this month. Most of the rest of the Harrisburg bullpen are showing great K/9 rates right now with good numbers thus far.

High-A Rotation

Ray: A-,B,B-,A,A
Jordan: A,B,B+,B-,B-
Cole: D,B,D,D,C+
Schwartz: A,A
Hill: C+,A-,A+,C,C-

Turnbull: D-,D,F->demoted

Discussion: Potomac YTD Stats are here for reference

Potomac is led by a series of guys who are all on good rolls. Robbie Ray, Taylor Jordan and Taylor Hill each are sporting sub 2.00 ERAs at the end of the month. Hill’s outings are a combination of excellent and mediocre; his stat line looks better than his Start grade line. Kylin Turnbull turned out not to be ready for High-A, but his promoted replacement Blake Schwartz certainly looked like he was ready in his first start (6ip, 3hits, zero runs) and followed up that outing with another dominant outing on 4/30. Only A.J. Cole has really struggled out of this group, a disappointing start so far for the re-captured prospect. Is High-A going to turn out to be his tripping point? The California league is tough on hitters, but the Carolina league isn’t; what is going on with Cole?

In the bullpen, Tyler Herron has an amazing 20 Ks in 10 1/3 innings, while Richie Mirowski has given up just 4 hits in his 10+ innings of work for the month.

Low-A Rotation

Anderson: B+,B+,A,B,A
Turnbull: A
Pineyro: D,D,Inc,C-,A+
RPena: B,F,D,A-,B+
Encarnation: B+,C-,C-

Schwartz: B+,A,B-,A+->promoted
Mooneyham: B-,A,A->dl
Dupra: B,A,B-,D->promoted

Rauh: C,C,B-,D-
Fischer: A+
Hudgins: A,A-

Discussion: Hagerstown YTD Stats are here for reference

Hagerstown has a “rotation,” and then they have something akin to a “tandem” pitching plan in place, where the 2nd guy in goes nearly as long as the starter. Hence the larger number of guys who are given grades on their “starts,” when in reality guys in the lower group don’t have any starts. If a guy goes 3-4 innings in a game, they generally have a grade here.

Dixon Anderson is leading the way with 5 excellent outings and a 2.25 era/0.87 whip. Brett Mooneyham had three good starts as well before hitting the D/L. Schwartz proved too dominant in his 4 outings (21 Ks in 14 innnings) and was promoted; Dupra’s line earned him a promotion as well. Pedro Encarnation is finally putting it together outside of short-season. Turnbull looked very dominant in his low-A return as expected. David Fischer and Wil Hudgins longer outings may have been good, but their other outings have drug down their stat lines. DSL grad Pineyro is somewhat holding his own in full-season ball, with up and down nights that hopefully will even out. Lastly Ronald Pena is living up to his “sleeper” potential; the 16th round 2012 draft pick has picked up right where he left off in full-season ball.

Written by Todd Boss

May 1st, 2013 at 9:39 am

Nats Major & Minor League Pitching Staffs vs Predictions

2013 Projected Pitching Staffs and Rotations; entire Nats system

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After finishing the evaluation of all 6 minor league pitching staffs, plus finally finishing (and posting yesterday) the MLB season review, here’s an entirely too-early projection of what the staffs and rotations may look like in 2013. This post assumes for the time being that all major and minor league FAs will opt out and we’ll be looking to fill spots. In these cases I’ll mark FAs to be as needed, though we very well may acquire these players in trade.

Note: some of these projections are slightly different from the original reviews posted in the per-level links, to account for moves, performances and roster moves that have already happened or seem set to happen this off-season. I’ve also made some slight adjustments in order to make the rotations and bullpens work at each level.

(notations: FA = free agent, MLFA == Minor League Free Agent)

Staff Review links: MLB is here, AAA is here, AA is here, High-A is here, Low-A is here, Short-A is here, GCL is here.

MLB Rotation: Strasburg, Gonzalez, Zimmermann, Detwiler, FA or other acquisition
MLB Bullpen: Clippard, Storen, Mattheus, Stammen, Garcia, a FA left-hander (possibly Burnett), a FA long-man (possibly Gorzelanny).
MLB notables Out of Organization: Jackson, Burnett, Gonzalez, Lannan, Wang

MLB Narrative: 4/5ths of the rotation are no-brainers. The 5th starter is the question mark for 2013. Do we re-sign Jackson and pay him more as a 5th starter than our big 3 guys? It doesn’t seem so after the team declined to give him a Qualifying Offer. Do we trade from depth (RH relief, middle infield) and find a 5th starter that way? Do we find a 5th starter from within? Meanwhile the bullpen is now full of hard throwing righties, but we could lose all 3 of our lefties. We may need to work the phones to retain these guys, or else we’re on the FA market. I think (despite my discussion about converting Garcia to a 5th starter) that he’ll remain in the bullpen and may bump Henry Rodriguez out of a job. One of our two closer-quality guys (Clippard and Storen) could be moved, cashing in on their value, which could open up a spot for a FA acquisition or a promotion from AAA.

Lots to be decided this off-season for Mike Rizzo, and this hasn’t even mentioned the dominos that will fall if/when the team makes a contract decision on Adam LaRoche.

AAA Rotation: Roark, Maya, Broderick, Meyers, Perry
AAA Bullpen: Tatusko (swingman), Arneson (swingman), Severino (loogy), Davis, Lehman, Nelo (closer), Martin, Mandel

AAA Narrative: We have a lot of long-serving minor leaguers here; as it stands now only a few of them are even 40-man roster guys (Maya, Perry, Garcia). The modern AAA roster construction is one of “spare parts” and prospects; do we have enough prospects to cover for injuries at the MLB level? Which one of these AAA starters would Nats fans feel comfortable filling in were one of our starters to go down with injury? Perhaps the Nats need to work on some starter depth via trade. Brad Meyers was just returned from the Yankees after a season-long DL stint after being Rule-5 drafted, and seems likely to slot right back into the AAA rotation when he’s healthy. Perry seems set to get a 4th option and should slot in here, looking to convert back to being a starter. Broderick is a former Rule-5 pick and was claimed from St. Louis, who dumped him late last season. I don’t think he’s anything more than a 4-A starter, but the organization seems to like him.

AA Rotation: Rosenbaum, Holder, Gilliam, Karns, Grace, Demny (swingman?) or MLFA? Solis if he’s healthy?
AA Bullpen: Frias, McCoy, Selik (maybe high-A again), Holland (setup), Wort (closer), VanAllen (loogy), Demmin (maybe high-A again), an org arm or two to fill in.

AA narrative: We have a couple of interesting candidates in the AA rotation to start, but what may be more interesting is to see whether the likes of Gilliam and Demny hold onto their spots with the talent ready to rise up out of high-A. Meanwhile, the bullpen has some interesting arms to keep an eye on. I forgot to mention Solis in the AA write-up but remembered him here. Two big questions for me in this AA rotation for 2013: 1) is Rosenbaum for real or is he going to sputter out before reaching MLB potential? And, 2) Is Nathan Karns ready to make the leap? I think Karns can quickly put his name in the mix to get promoted to AAA based on his performance in 2012.

High-A Rotation: Swynenberg, Ray, Meyer (maybe AA?), Schwartz (maybe low-A), Rauh (maybe low-A)
High-A Bullpen Competition: Barrett (maybe AA) , Testa, Smoker (loogy), Hill, Meza (perhaps a starter?), Holt, Hawkins, Bates, Mirowski
High-A bullpen Release candidates: Olbrychowski, McCatty, Applebee

High-A narrative: there’s too many arms for too few slots right now in all three of the A-levels. There’s a ton of release candidates, and some guys who could be higher or lower. I’d love to be a fly on the wall at the organizational meetings where all this evaluation is done. Meyer dominated High-A last year; could he start in AA? Barrett (by virtue of his AFL appearance) may also be AA material.

The same goes for the Low-A team below: I’ve got 5 logical rotation candidates, another 4 guys who make sense to be in the low-A rotation, and a slew of guys who seem to have earned their way to the low-A bullpen. But there’s only 7 slots to go around.

Low-A Rotation: Turnbull, Jordan, Purke (if healthy), Monar, Mooneyham
Low-A Rotation Competitors: Hansen, Lee (loogy if not), Encarnation, McGeary (if finally healthy)
Low-A Bullpen Competition: Anderson, Estevez, Dupra, McKenzie, Henke, Davis, Boyden, Benincasa, Hudgins, Dicherry, Mudron

We acknowledge the folly of trying to predict short-season staffs which will mostly be populated with 2013 draftees, especially under the new CBA that shortens negotiation times, making it more likely college seniors are drafted (who sign quickly with zero leverage) and get playing. That being said, there will definitely be guys who stay in extended spring training for a couple months and then get placed on these rosters along with new draftees. Here’s some guesses based on 2012 performances; all blank spots filled by 2013 draftees or by some of the guys who drop down from low-A.

Short-A Rotation: Baez, Pineyro
Short-A Bullpen: Smith (if not released), Fischer, Medina, Pena, Mendez

GCL blank spots filled by younger 2013 draftees (HS, Juco and college juniors/seniors from smaller schools) and by rising DSL grads.

GCL Rotation: Mieses (if not released), Barrientos, Vasquez
GCL Bullpen: Heredes

Written by Todd Boss

November 6th, 2012 at 9:16 am

Posted in Majors Pitching,Minor League Pitching,Rule-5

Tagged with aaron barrett, adalberto mieses, adam laroche, adam olbrychowski, alex meyer, atahualpa severino, ben hawkins, blake monar, blake schwarz, bobby hansen, brad meyers, brett mooneyham, brian broderick, brian dupra, brian rauh, cameron selik, christian garcia, christian meza, christopher mckenzie, cody davis, colin bates, corey vanallen, craig stammen, danny rosenbaum, daury vasquez, david fischer, dixon anderson, drew storen, edwin jackson, erik arneson, erik davis, gilberto mendez, gio gonzalez, gregory baez, gregory holt, hector nelo, henry rodriguez, inocencio heredes, ivan pineyro, jack mcgeary, jason smith, jeff mandel, joe testa, joel barrientos, jordan zimmermann, josh smoker, kevin dicherry, kylin turnbull, marcos frias, matt swyndenberg, matthew grace, matthew purke, michael boyden, mike mudron, mike rizzo, nathan karns, neil holland, nicholas lee, pat lehman, pat mccoy, paul applebee, paul demny, pedro encarnation, rafael martin, richie mirowski, rob wort, robbie ray, robert benincasa, robert gilliam, ronald pena, ross detwiler, ryan demmin, ryan mattheus, ryan perry, ryan tatusko, sammy solis, shane mccatty, silvio medina, stephen strasburg, tanner roark, taylor hill, taylor jordan, travis henke, trevor holder, tyler clippard, wil hudgins, wirkin estevez, yunesky maya

Nats 2012 Minor League Rotations: Guesses and Results

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Yunesky Maya led the Nats minor league starters for the 2nd straight summer. Photo Jim McGregor/Syracuse Chiefs via milb.com

I stumbled across this post, titled “Updated Minor League Rotation Predictions for 2012,” posted March 1st 2012, while looking for something else last week. And I thought to myself, hey now that I’ve finished the reviews of the minor league teams, lets see how I did predicting the rotations at the beginning of the season! I’ve also culled through the post-2011 season review posts for some preliminary guesses at the time.

(Note: I linked to NationalsProspects.com Luke Erickson‘s guesses in the above link for another perspective in the 2012 spring training).

Players are bolded the first time they’re mentioned, but not afterwards.

AAA:

Sept 11 Guess: Maya, Milone, Stammen, Meyers, Peacock, Martis
Mar 12 Guess: Stammen, Maya, Arneson, Ballard, Buschmann
Opening Day Rotation: Atkins, Roark, Maya, Lannan and Duke
5 guys with the most starts in 2012: Maya, Roark, Duke, Lannan, Atkins

What happened? My prediction was way, way off; only Maya was the constant, but we knew that the second he proved he couldn’t get out MLB hitters last fall. The team traded two of its probable AAA starters (Peacock and Milone), lost a third to the Rule-5 draft (Meyers, who honestly we probably will get back once the Yankees are done screwing around with him) and a 4th to Minor League Free Agency (Martis). Meanwhile, who knew that Lannan wasn’t going to make the MLB opening day roster? Then, the team released Buschmann before he appeared in a game (he played 2012 in the Tampa Bay organization). Ballard was a starter, just not in AAA. Stammen, in a surprise to me, made the conversion from AAA starter in 2011 to MLB bullpen guy and had a great year. Lastly, instead of using more internal options like Roark the team signed two MLFAs in Duke and Atkins. I suppose I could have guessed that the team would go with Roark before Arneson as a starter (given Arneson’s rubber-armed handling in 2011). It just goes to show how much the creation of AAA teams has changed over the years.

AA:

Sept 11 Guess: Rosenbaum, Bronson, Demny, Olbrychowski, Solis
Mar 12 Guess: Rosenbaum, Bronson, Demny, Olbrychowski, Gilliam
Opening Day Rotation: Gilliam, Demny, Mandel, Rosenbaum and Ballard
5 guys with the most starts in 2012: Rosenbaum, Demny, Gilliam, Perry, Ballard/Pucetas

We were a bit closer here, getting 3 of the 5 guesses right. Sammy Solis would absolutely have been in this rotation if not for his Tommy John surgery; we’ll cross our fingers for him to return in 2013. When Solis went out, org-arm Mandel filled in. Evan Bronson is still with the organization on Milb.com but never threw an inning in 2012 and isn’t on the Big Board. I can’t find a single bit of google information indicating if he’s still with the team or not. Weird. Meanwhile I had just guessed too high for Olbrychowski; he spent most of 2012 as a starter in Potomac. Nobody could have guessed that we’d have traded Balester for Perry, that Perry would have stunk as a reliever, and then would show up in AA remaking himself as a starter. Ballard and Pucetas were MLFA pickups designed to fill holes in the system, though based on his prior experience I had Ballard pegged in the AAA rotation.

High-A:

Sept 11 Guess: Selik, Grace, Purke, Meyer, Hill, Karns
Mar 12 Guess: Selik, Grace, Purke, Meyer, Hill
Opening Day Rotation: Winters, Hansen, Olbrychowski, Grace and Swynenberg
5 guys with the most starts in 2012: Grace, Ray, Swynenberg, Olbrychowski, Karns

I was far off here as well; Purke got hurt, Meyer, Hill and Karns started lower than I would have guessed and Selik was converted to a reliever. I was right only on Grace (thought technically I thought Olbrychowski would be a starter, just not back in Potomac). Winters was a MLFA (the fifth such MLFA who has appeared as a primary starter in our top three levels; is this a statement of some sort?). As we’ll see in a moment, I was right about Hansen, just wrong about the level. Lastly Swynenberg came out of nowhere; he was effective in middle-relief in low-A; who knew he’d win a spot in the high-A rotation? I thought Ray would have done a few turns in low-A; instead he debuted in Potomac and struggled to make the jump. I lost faith in Karns between September 2011 and March 2012; as it turned out he was one of the 5 top starters (in terms of appearances) for the year while putting in a career season.

Low-A:

Sept 11 Guess: Hansen, Jordan, Cole, Ray, Estevez, McGeary
Mar 12 Guess: Turnbull, Hansen, Ray, McGeary, Karns
Opening Day Rotation: Estevez, Dupra/Karns, Meyer, Turnbull/Hill, McKenzie
5 guys with the most starts in 2012: Hill, Meyer, Turnbull, Estevez, Hansen

What happened? The team traded Cole. Jordan was injured more than we were led to believe in late 2011 (he had Tommy John surgery after the season was over). I predicted Hansen, Ray, Hill, Estevez, Meyers and Dupra would be starters, just got the levels wrong. My Mar 12 guesses were somewhat accurate in that we got Turnbull and Karns right. McGeary struggled through yet another injury filled season and may be nearing the end of his baseball career. I thought Estevez was getting squeezed out with all these high-profile starters rising up. I figured McKenzie had lost his starting shot; clearly his performance in 2012 should end his chances at getting another 2013 starting shot. I guess the lesson here is that it can be awful difficult to determine the difference between a High-, Low- and Short-A guy.

Short-A:

Sept 11 Guess: Manny Rodriguez, Dupra, Baez and two draft picks.
Mar 12 Guess: Manny Rodriguez, Dupra, Baez and two draft picks
Opening Day Rotation: Jordan/Medina, Baez, Monar, Encarnation, and Smith
5 guys with the most starts in 2012: Encarnation, Monar, Lee, Mooneyham, Fischer/Pineyro

My guess of 3 returners and 2 draft picks wasn’t entirely accurate; there wasn’t a single 2012 draft pick in the 2012 opening day rotation. We got Baez pegged correctly but the rest of the predictions were off. Manny Rodriguez, a converted infielder, spent the whole year on the 60-day DL. Dupra was in high-A. Meanwhile, a couple of guys dropping down from Low-A (Jordan, Encarnation) comprised the rotation at the beginning of the season. Monar was a repeater from 2011 who didn’t get a ton of innings last year. Eventually some 2012 draftees (Mooneyham, Fischer and others) got starts as expected, and helped drive Auburn to the playoffs.

GCL:

Sept 11 Guess: Mieses, King, Encarnation, Medina, Marcelino
Mar 12 Guess: Mieses repeating plus 4 guys from DSL and the 2012 draft.
Opening Day Rotation: Mieses, Barrientos, Pineyro, Vasquez, and Schwarz
5 guys with the most starts in 2012: Vasquez, Mieses, Hudgins, Selsor, Pineyro/Schwartz

Finally we got one right (well, right from Mar 12 guess anyway). The GCL rotation was Mieses, 3 DSL graduates and one 2012 draftee. Eventually more 2012 draftees (Hudgins, Selsor and others) consumed most of the rest of the starts. King disappeared from the rosters; he’s still in the organization but was never assigned this season. Injured? Disciplinary issues? There seems to be so much inconsistency in the DSL graduates that it almost isn’t worth tracking them until they appear in a higher level. Honestly, this is why I don’t really follow the Dominican Summer League teams either.

Phew; that’s a lot of Nats minor league starters. As it showed, its really, really difficult to predict this stuff from a computer in Northern Virginia, scouting the stat lines. But its really fun, so we’ll continue to do it :-).

Written by Todd Boss

September 21st, 2012 at 10:03 am

Posted in Minor League Pitching,Rule-5

Tagged with adalberto mieses, adam olbrychowski, aj cole, alex meyer, anthony marcelino, blake monar, blake schwarz, bobby hansen, brad meyers, brad peacock, brandon king, brett mooneyham, brian dupra, cameron selik, casey selsor, christopher mckenzie, collin balester, craig stammen, danny rosenbaum, daury vasquez, david fischer, erik arneson, evan bronson, gregory baez, ivan pineyro, jack mcgeary, jason smith, jeff mandel, joel barrientos, john lannan, kevin pucetas, kyle winters, kylin turnbull, luke erickson, manny rodriguez, matt swyndenberg, matthew buschmann, matthew grace, matthew purke, mike ballard, mitch atkins, nathan karns, nicholas lee, paul demny, pedro encarnation, robbie ray, robert gilliam, ryan perry, sammy solis, shairon martis, silvio medina, tanner roark, taylor hill, taylor jordan, tommy john, tommy milone, wil hudgins, wirkin estevez, yunesky maya, zach duke

GCL/Rookie Pitching Staff Year in Review; 2012

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The biggest story in the GCL was also its worst; Giolito injury. Photo Eric Dearborn via win-for-teddy blog Click here for the 2011 version of this post, for a look at how things were last year.

Here’s the GCL version of the 2012 season pitching staff review. I’m going down the line from top to bottom; AAA is here, AA is here, High-A is here, Low-A is here and Short-A is here. As with the other reviews, we’ll look at the main rotation, the substitute and spot starters, then focus on key relievers. Rehab appearances are generally not mentioned. The lower you get in the minors, the harder it is to really pass judgement on a player’s real capabilities or career outlook, so take some of these evaluations with a grain of salt. They say not to depend on small sample sizes and I agree; we’re doing after-the-fact analysis on a small sample size of a half a pro season in most cases. This is especially true with Short-A and the GCL, where most of the roster are 2012 draftees. So “outlook for next season” is almost entirely a guess for these players. A ton of them will be left in extended spring to compete for next year’s short-season team, while a ton more will be released without much fanfare.

The rotations in the lower minor leagues are also not nearly as clean as in the upper-levels. Lots of times the “starter” is slated to go as many innings as the “reliever,” a way to get two starter candidates longer stretches of innings. We’ll try to take that into consideration as we move forward.

GCL starters. The rotation started the season with Mieses, Barrientos, Pineyro, Vasquez, and Schwartz. Lets see how the original rotation and other primary starters fared.

Adalberto Mieses put in his second poor rookie league season, posting a 5.05 ERA in 41 innings over 13 appearances and 6 starts. He hasn’t appreciably improved over last year, which saw him put up similar numbers in the same league. Outlook for next Season: GCL rotation competition or released.
Joel Barrientos pitched 45 innings as a swing-man/spot starter and posted respectable numbers (4-1 with a 3.00 era). Especially considering that he turned 19 about a month ago. The fact that he’s a tall lefty (though he must look emaciated; 6’2″ 145lbs?) is a bonus. Outlook for next Season: Perhaps the low-A bullpen but more likely repeating GCL as a starter.
Ivan Pineyro dominated the GCL for 5 starts and got bumped up to short-A. Outlook for next season: (from the Short-A post): Repeating short-A in the rotation.
Daury Vasquez was the GCL work horse, leading the staff in starts and IP. The DSL grad actually improved on his 2011 DSL numbers (a hard feat), putting in work-man like stats of 4-6, 4.10 ERA in 52 2/3 innings. Outlook for next Season: He has yet to turn 20, so I’d guess he repeats GCL as a starter.
Blake Schwartz didn’t seem to merit a two-level promotion, but he out-performed his 5 GCL starts in Hagerstown. Outlook for next season: (from low-A post): high-A rotation, based on his status as a college senior grad.
Casey Selsor was drafted as an OF but threw 41 1/3 GCL innings in 2012 to a 6.10 ERA. He was a college senior draftee who couldn’t get guys out in GCL; not a good sign for his future. Outlook for next Season: low-A bullpen competition or released.
Wil Hudgins pitched mostly in the GCL after getting picked in the 22nd round this year and was pretty effective in 10 appearances and 6 starts. 4-3, 2.21 era and a great k/bb ratio of 25/3 in 36 2/3 innings. Unfortunately, Hudgins is a college senior draftee throwing in the rookie league, so anything other than dominance is viewed as failure. Outlook for next season: low-A bullpen competition.
Dixon Anderson threw a bunch of “rehab” innings in the GCL before finishing out the year in low-A. Outlook for next season: (from Low-A post): competing for low-A rotation, dropping to bullpen.
Lucas Giolito, 2012’s #1 draft pick, threw 2 innings after rehabbing a partially torn UCL all summer and fully blew it out. Tommy John surgery, see you in 2014.

Other guys who got spot starts here and there (non-rehab):
- Anthony Marcelino appeared in one game, the 2nd GCL game of the season, pitched 4 innings and was subsequently released. (?!). I have no idea why. Very odd; he worked through an injury all of 2011 and seemed ready to compete in 2012.
- Kylin Turnbull, 2011’s 4th round pick who signed late and didn’t play in 2011, threw a few starts in the GCL to work out some kinks before returning to Hagerstown.
- Wirkin Estevez threw three 3-inning rehab starts mid-season before returning to Hagerstown.
- Ronald Pena made three “starts” of 2 innings each despite really being a reliever and then finished the season in short-A.
- Andy Santana was relatively awful in 13 appearances and 2 starts; a 6.46 era in 23 2/3 innings. It is hard to see a future for him after basically failing the rookie league two years in a row.
- Gilberto Mendez looked pretty good in 33 1/3 GCL innings: 34/4 k/bb ratio and a 3.24 era. He wasn’t nearly as effective upon reaching short-A.

GCL Relievers: taking a look at the relief corps at the end of the season. These are done in order by IP for any reliever who didn’t get at least one start. I’m basically ignoring any reliever who threw 9 or fewer innings in the GCL or who didn’t get a spot-start and is already mentioned above.

Inocencio Heredes threw 31 innings of good relief in the GCL this year, improving on his 2011 showing. Outlook for next Season: maybe competing for a full-season bullpen spot but likely repeating GCL.
Kevin Dicherry was a college senior draftee who served as the closer in the GCL. Good numbers, as you would expect. He needs to be challenged. Outlook for next Season: low-A bullpen competition.
Mike Mudron threw 24 relief innings in the GCL after he was drafted in the 32nd round as a college senior. Outlook for next Season: low-A bullpen competition.

Summary

We all know by now that GCL is essentially used for two things: an entry point for graduating Dominican Summer League guys plus a first stop for the younger guys each draft class (High schoolers, juco guys and college guys from smaller programs). Lots of guys never make it past the GCL, so there’s a lot of churn. Records are nearly meaningless since so many rehab guys pass through working on a pitch or working out kinks.

Written by Todd Boss

September 19th, 2012 at 11:33 am

Nationals Arm Race

Archive for the ‘kylin turnbull’ tag

Auburn/Short-A Pitching Staff Year in Review; 2013

Hagerstown/Low-A Pitching Staff Year in Review; 2013

Potomac/High-A Pitching Staff Year in Review; 2013

August-September 2013: Minor League Monthly Rotation Review

July 2013: Minor League Monthly Rotation Review

Monthly Check-in with Minor League Pitching Staffs

Nats Major & Minor League Pitching Staffs vs Predictions

2013 Projected Pitching Staffs and Rotations; entire Nats system

Nats 2012 Minor League Rotations: Guesses and Results

GCL/Rookie Pitching Staff Year in Review; 2012

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